GP Bullhound Global Software Market Perspectives Q1 2023
GP Bullhound Global Software Market Perspectives Q1 2023
Software
sector update
Qualitative insights into broader software trends and public and
private valuations across the transaction spectrum, and interviews
with today’s leaders transforming the sector.
THE VIEW
Strengthening the supply chain: Supply chain digital twins AI in cybersecurity: A new chapter for both sides of the digital
gain prominence arms race
▪ Organisations are increasingly turning to “digital twins” to digitally model and ▪ The cybersecurity arms race is constantly evolving, and both sides are now turning
simulate supply chains for a host of benefits to AI for the next salvo
▪ There is a unique opportunity for companies specialising in digital twins to ▪ A true double-edged sword, AI has the potential to both create and prevent
enter the supply chain vertical or partner up with an existing player malicious attacks and investment in AI-enabled security tools has skyrocketed
▪ The market for global digital twins was estimated to be $11bn in 2022 and ▪ AI-enabled cybersecurity is set to grow at a CAGR of 24.4% and exceed $94bn in
growing at a CAGR of 37.5% value by 2030
Data Swiss army knife: CDPs are expanding their use cases and Training software: Frictionless onboarding/product training to
experiencing unprecedented growth improve adoption and retention
▪ Customer Data Platforms (CDPs) have expanded far beyond traditional ▪ SaaS companies are finding that first- or third-party onboarding/training tools can
marketing use cases greatly increase user retention
▪ The combination of these new CDPs with AI/ML for enriched customer profiles ▪ Offering customisable onboarding can help increase the adoption of a SaaS tool
presents an exciting opportunity to future proof marketing efforts within an organisation and greatly reduce time to value
▪ Pureplay CDPs can also consider chasing specific verticals, APIs for integration, ▪ Companies that enable training or onboarding for larger, vertical-specific SaaS
app ecosystems, and broader data management solutions platforms, can capitalise on this opportunity
Cost optimisation: Deeper understanding of a company's financial Customer experience: CX goes conversational with the rise of
cost centers LLMs and NLP
▪ Cost optimisation software has become top of mind thanks to a new period of ▪ Recent advancement in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Natural Language
financial austerity for tech in addition to rising costs due to inflation Processing (NLP) have made their way to voice APIs/speech recognition
▪ The global cost optimisation software market is likely to surpass $29bn in ▪ What this means is customers can now “talk” directly to brands, and the brands in
2028, representing a CAGR of 10.1% turn can capture voice data for analytics
▪ Coupa is a leader in cost optimisation with a focus on supply chain/logistics, ▪ Conversational, voice-based customer experience has already proven to be
having acquired Llamasoft before their buyout by Thoma Bravo this year effective and is top of mind for many companies looking to innovate
Strengthening the supply chain: Supply chain “digital twins” gain prominence Select transactions
▪ Legacy methods for designing and planning supply chains are static and relatively manual, making them less than ideal for
modern supply chains that are complex and dynamic. In response, organisations have been increasingly turning to supply chain
“digital twins” – a virtual abstraction/simulation of a company’s end-to-end supply chain configuration
▪ Digital twins provide several key advantages in a centralised hub, including streamlined supply chain design, predictive analytics INVESTMENT BY
for production delays/lead times, and high visibility of every stage of an order’s journey (from production to shipping), allowing
decision makers to react and adapt to real-time supply chain information. This presents a unique opportunity for vertical
agnostic digital twin tools to enter the space or team up with existing players
▪ Innovative companies in the supply chain tech space with digital twin offerings include Coupa, which was recently acquired by
Thoma Bravo for $8bn. Blue Yonder, which was recently acquired by Panasonic for $7 billion, is another leader in the supply
chain technology space. The market for global digital twins was estimated to be $11bn in 2022 and growing at a CAGR of 37.5%
INVESTMENT BY
Data Swiss army knife: CDPs are expanding their use cases and experiencing unprecedented growth
▪ CDPs have evolved over the last few years to become one of the most important components of an organisation's tech stack,
with more and more departments wanting access to unified customer data profiles, as use cases expand beyond marketing
▪ With the integration of CDPs into full-stack marketing and the dramatic improvement in machine learning, there is an
opportunity for real-time, predictive analytics whereby organisations use the first-party data they have on customers to
improve marketing ROI. And as companies collect more zero-party data (highly personalised information given directly by
users), we expect these enriched customer profiles and AI technology to provide future proof targeting and attribution methods
▪ With unified customer data being such an integral part of any modern company's successful digital strategy, there are many ACQUIRED BY
growth opportunities for companies that have built pureplay CDPs (as opposed to repurposed DMPs), like vertical specificity,
APIs for integration and expanded use cases, app ecosystems, privacy and data compliance, and broader data management
solutions. Alongside an expansion of potential use cases, the TAM for CDPs is likely to grow from $4.8bn in 2022 to over
$19.7bn by the end of 2027, at a CAGR of 32.4%. This is in part driven by “pre-packaged” CDPs that give SMBs access to a full
suite of data and marketing tools
Cost optimisation: Deeper understanding of a company's financial cost centers Select transactions
▪ Cost optimisation software has been at the top of executive minds as companies look to control spending in the era of tech
layoffs and newfound focus on profitability and efficiency. Rising inflation putting upwards pressure on direct and indirect costs
for businesses has only served to exacerbate the problem
▪ Market volatility and increased investor scrutiny have encouraged companies to adopt cost optimisation platforms, as businesses INVESTMENT BY
search for more comprehensive views of their company’s cost centers with added analytical functionality or other controls. The
global cost optimisation software market is likely to surpass $29bn in 2028 as a result, representing a CAGR of 10%
▪ Coupa, a large player in the cost optimisation software space with a focus on supply chain, was recently acquired by Thoma Bravo Fund V
for $8bn, which plans to capitalise on these opportunistic market conditions. It also acquired Llamasoft in November 2020 to
strengthen its grasp of the spend management space. Llamasoft provided Coupa with improved accounting, actual time-
spending transparency, and a deeper bench of supply chain solutions for customers
INVESTMENT BY
AI in cybersecurity: A new chapter for both sides of the digital arms race
Fund V
▪ As the cybersecurity arms race continues to evolve, the increasing use of AI by both attackers and defenders is creating a new
chapter in the ongoing battle for digital security, set to unfold over the coming year
▪ AI is increasingly being used by attackers to create malicious payloads that can avoid detection and generate personalised
phishing emails. The recent GoDaddy multiyear breach appears to have been a cyberattack powered by AI
▪ On the other hand, behavioural analytics powered by AI offers real-time information about suspicious activity, by detecting and
responding to anomalies. This approach is proving effective for CISOs and their teams when establishing norms for typical
behaviour, by analysing and comprehending past behavioural trends, and subsequently identifying anomalies in the data INVESTMENT BY
▪ The increasing AI utilisation, from both security professionals and hackers, has led to massive growth in the sector. The AI-
enabled cybersecurity market is set to grow at a CAGR of 24.4%, and its value is set to exceed $94bn by 2030
Fund IV
Training software: Frictionless onboarding and product training improve adoption and retention Select transactions
▪ Understanding a SaaS product's value and capabilities is crucial to user engagement and retention, with the amount of time to
successfully and completely onboard a new customer crucial to the success of that tool within the buyer's organisation
▪ Companies like Userpilot, Pendo, and Appcues have been active in creating customisable onboarding programs that allow
organisations to tailor their training for a more frictionless experience. Capabilities include managing employee learning and MERGER AND
development through detailed analytics, ensuring users obtain quality product knowledge, and guidance towards specific INVESTMENT BY
company initiatives that result in an increased engagement and adoption of B2B training software tools
▪ Companies that provide quality training software and tools offer organisations the opportunity to decrease the need for human
capital, subsequently leading to stronger gross margins and a more frictionless user experience that earning higher retention.
As a result, the training software market is set to reach $115.5bn by 2028, representing a CAGR of 10.3%
ACQUIRED BY
Customer experience: CX goes conversational with the rise of LLMs and NLP
▪ CX is becoming increasingly more conversational thanks to recent advancements in AI Large Language Models like GPT-4.
Voice technology including voice APIs/speech recognition can now bridge the gap between vocalised thoughts and advanced
user functionality or interaction
▪ This renaissance in language processing and related voice technology means customers can now effectively talk to brands,
which in turn enables brands to capture better voice data and produce richer analytics. Companies like AssemblyAI, Dialogflow,
Replicant, Uniphore and Voicify are but a few of the emerging names in the space
▪ Automatic speech recognition features are now central to personalisation, retention, and frictionless voice driven self-service ACQUIRED BY
options. Voice technologies such as interactive voice response (voice commands and touch-tone key selections),
conversational AI, and voice-bots are but some of the voice technologies enhancing CX capabilities
▪ As CX capabilities continue to evolve, gone are the days when voice was considered too inaccurate, or unavailable in too many
languages and accents to be deemed reliable. For the foreseeable future, providing timely and intuitive voice driven customer
service, for customers from all backgrounds, will be a CX priority and key growth area
A LEADING TECHNOLOGY ADVISORY AND INVESTMENT FIRM, PROVIDING TRANSACTION ADVICE AND CAPITAL
Investment Banking
MAJORITY GROWTH
ACQUIRED BY ACQUIRED BY ACQUIRED BY ACQUIRED BY INVESTMENT IN
BUYOUT FROM
MERGER AND
INVESTMENT BY ACQUIRED BY ACQUIRED BY INVESTMENT BY INVESTMENT BY
INVESTMENT BY
Investment Management
Developer of a cloud-based
Developer of an online financial
Mar-23 platform for enterprise event 4,600 7.3x Mar-23 6,500
infrastructure platform
marketing and management
Developer of a cloud-based
Developer of a peer-to-peer property
Feb-23 business spending management 8,000 9.8x Mar-23 199
listing platform
solution
Average 8.1x
Median 7.7x
$70B 6,000
$250B 1,000
$60B
5,000
$200B 800
$50B
4,000
$150B 600 $40B
3,000
$30B
$100B 400
2,000
$20B
$50B 200
$10B 1,000
$0M 0 $0M 0
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
3Q21
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
M&A value Buyout value M&A volume Buyout volume Capital invested Volume
European M&A/buyout activity surges back Strong relative fundraising activity in emerging markets
100% 100%
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
3Q20
1Q18
1Q23
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
US & Canada Europe Asia Other US & Canada Europe Asia Other
Source: Pitchbook (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Data includes all SaaS M&A and private placement deals as defined by Pitchbook regardless of Q1 2023 Software sector update 8
geography; ”Other” includes Africa, Oceania, South/Central America, and the Middle East
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
110% 120%
110%
100%
100%
90%
90%
80% 80%
27/02/2023 07/03/2023 15/03/2023 23/03/2023 31/03/2023 31/12/2022 31/01/2023 28/02/2023 31/03/2023
S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite GPB Master SaaS Index S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite GPB Master SaaS Index
L6M L12M
130% 120%
120%
100%
110%
80%
100%
60%
90%
80% 40%
30/09/2022 30/11/2022 31/01/2023 31/03/2023 31/03/2022 30/06/2022 30/09/2022 31/12/2022 31/03/2023
S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite GPB Master SaaS Index S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite GPB Master SaaS Index
45x
February-March 2021: Though SaaS valuations are still November 2021-June 2022:
significantly above historical levels, a new US presidential The Covid-19 Omicron
40x administration, inflation concerns, and rising interest rates have variant, geopolitical tension
contributed to a modest pull-back of the SaaS Index (including Russia’s invasion of
Factors that may influence valuations in 2Q-4Q23: Ukraine), ongoing global
supply chain issues, and a
35x Recent CPI prints indicate that inflation might hawkish monetary policy have
finally be receding and lead to a pivot for the March 2020: After a brief initial triggered a steep sell-off
Fed in the US sell-off, SaaS stocks enjoyed across markets and regions
significant appreciation thanks to that brought tech valuations
30x The recent banking crisis has stabilised, with below the five-year average
the forced digitisation of the world
consumer/corporate confidence recovering
caused by the pandemic
modestly thanks to FDIC intervention in the US
Heightened recession likelihood due to impact
25x
of monetary policy changes to fight inflation
December 2018: US
Residual effects and concerns from the recent June 2022-Present:
Trade war with China
banking crisis may continue to dampen leads to sell-off of SaaS Narrowing disparity
20x economic activity, particularly in tech between high-growth
stocks
and low-growth SaaS
valuations, and slight
15x improvement in overall
valuations in 1Q23
10x
7.5x
6.0x
5x
3.4x
0x
Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 Mar'18 Mar'19 Mar'20 Mar'21 Mar'22 Mar'23
GPB SaaS Index - EV/NTM Revenues
High Growth Medium Growth Low Growth
Sources: CapitalIQ, Wall Street Journal, GP Bullhound Intelligence (as of 31 March 2023) Q1 2023 Software sector update 10
Note: High-Growth: >40%, Medium Growth: 15-40%, Low-Growth <15%
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
Provides a marketing automation platform, used primarily for email marketing and SMS
marketing
Operator of a social network platform designed for people to dive into anything through
experiences built around their interests
0 0 0 0 0
Developer of an online payments processing platform designed to help small and large
4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 companies accept web and mobile payments
SUSE
40% ZM QLYS XM SNOW
SEMR NOW ZS
TMV VEEV CRM TEAM
BOX DT
DOCU
LTM Unlevered FCF Margin %
-10%
SCWX
-20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
LTM Revenue Growth %
DUOL
14x Rule of 40% line VEEV TEAM
DDOG
PAYC
SPT NOW LVC
HUBS
ZS
12x PCOR MDB MNDY
PCTY
CDAY DV DT
PYCR GTLB
WK CFLT
U CWAN
10x ESMT
SMCRT
APPF DSY INTA QLYS
HCP
BL
NEM WDAY PD
PATH TENB BRZE
EV/LTM Revenue
Unexplained
variance
calculation increases the correlation to public market valuation, indicating
20x
that this combined metric is a better predictor of company value.
15x
DDOG R² = 0.7227 DDOG
R² = 0.6444
EV/LTM Revenue
MDB ZS MDB
VEEV MNDY VEEV MNDY ZS
DT DT
10x
PD
PD
ASAN FIVN ASAN
OKTA OKTA
FIVN XM
XM SEMR
AYX AYX
SEMR
DOCU DOCU
5x SUMO
AMPL AMPL
BIGC ZM BIGC
SUMO ZM
0x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
Rule of 40% Rule of 40% x Net Revenue Retention (self reported)
CEO – VEE24
Tomer Azenkot
“A large retailer recently reported to us that they saw a 35% increase in average order
value. Regardless of the type of business, customers want to connect with a human and
the results are compelling: improved conversion rates, higher customer satisfaction, and a
better overall customer experience. Vee24 helps organisations bring the in-person
experience online by incorporating tools to better connect website visitors and their teams.
Empowering visitors to instantly connect via text, voice, and video, to schedule an
appointment, or to simply leave a message makes for better experiences and helps grow
online businesses.”
SELECT CLIENTS
Vee24 helps brands deliver person-to-person customer experiences. Its digital
customer experience platform — powered by high-definition video chat, text chat,
AI-enabled chatbots, co-browsing, online appointment scheduling, and more —
enables customer-centric teams to grow online sales, deliver better customer
service, and build brand loyalty. Brands can connect their virtual and in-person
experience using its customer engagement platform. Vee24's customers include
leading brands in the retail, automotive, and financial services sectors.
CEO - POSTAL
Erik Kostelnik
“Ninety-nine per cent of businesses currently send direct mail campaigns manually. With
the spend in this channel over $20bn, Postal is helping customers consolidate, budget, and
systemise the sending and attribution of offline campaigns leading to increased revenue
and decreased cost in the channel.”
SELECT INVESTORS
Postal is a global offline engagement platform and serves over 600 B2B mid-market
and enterprise customers. The Postal Platform consists of three products: Engage,
Brand, and ABM which help marketing and sales teams personalise, automate, and
scale direct mail, internal and external events, branded company goods, and
personalised gifts to drive engagement with customers.
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 17
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 18
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 19
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 6.2x 6.5x 5.4x 25.7x 25.7x 26.0x 15.4% 74.6% 14.7%
Median 5.5x 5.6x 4.8x 22.7x 22.7x 20.2x 15.2% 77.2% 15.9%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 20
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 7.4x 7.6x 6.7x 25.1x 25.1x 23.4x 9.6% 75.3% 30.0%
Median 6.3x 6.4x 5.8x 16.8x 16.8x 18.5x 7.2% 80.0% 30.2%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 21
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 6.7x 7.0x 6.1x 25.0x 25.0x 24.7x 10.8% 71.9% 19.4%
Median 4.8x 5.2x 4.6x 23.9x 23.9x 24.3x 8.2% 73.0% 19.0%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 22
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 4.9x 5.2x 4.6x 25.5x 25.5x 20.9x 9.4% 68.3% 20.7%
Median 3.7x 3.8x 3.7x 21.7x 21.7x 16.8x 9.1% 72.9% 18.5%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 23
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 5.7x 5.7x 5.1x 17.7x 17.7x 14.9x 7.8% 66.0% 32.8%
Median 4.6x 4.6x 4.3x 15.6x 15.6x 13.4x 7.7% 72.6% 32.0%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 24
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 25
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 8.3x 8.7x 7.2x 36.2x 36.2x 31.8x 16.4% 75.0% 15.3%
Median 7.1x 7.4x 6.5x 35.2x 35.2x 31.3x 16.1% 77.4% 16.0%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 26
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 6.0x 6.2x 5.6x 22.3x 22.3x 22.3x 9.0% 61.1% 28.6%
Median 4.7x 5.0x 4.0x 20.7x 20.7x 16.3x 8.2% 60.9% 26.5%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 27
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 6.8x 7.1x 6.0x 20.0x 20.0x 22.2x 13.0% 72.5% 24.2%
Median 7.8x 8.1x 7.0x 15.3x 15.3x 24.8x 15.8% 76.8% 27.5%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 28
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 5.7x 6.0x 5.0x 19.4x 19.4x 24.5x 13.3% 73.3% 15.4%
Median 3.8x 3.9x 3.7x 15.6x 15.6x 14.1x 10.4% 75.8% 17.2%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 29
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 6.2x 6.5x 5.5x 32.0x 32.0x 28.6x 14.7% 70.9% 10.9%
Median 6.3x 6.4x 5.8x 29.7x 29.7x 28.5x 15.9% 70.0% 4.1%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 30
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 7.3x 7.6x 6.5x 23.0x 23.0x 27.6x 14.3% 77.8% 20.6%
Median 5.3x 5.2x 5.0x 23.2x 23.2x 22.7x 13.1% 77.9% 18.2%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 31
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
` Average 4.2x 4.2x 3.9x 22.1x 22.1x 13.9x 5.8% 63.1% 29.2%
Median 3.6x 3.7x 3.4x 17.4x 17.4x 13.5x 6.5% 56.6% 30.6%
Source: Capital IQ (as of 31 March 2023); Note: Multiples in excess of 75.0x or less than 0.0x are considered not-material (NM) and are excluded Q1 2023 Software sector update 32
from average calculations
Takeaways Transaction trends Public company analyses CEO commentary Public comparables About us
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