Chapter 4

PROBABILITY AND COUNTING RULES

PART I
 Objectives
1. After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
2. Determine sample spaces and find the probability of an event, using classical probability or
empirical probability.
3. Find the probability of compound events, using the addition rules.
4. Find the probability of compound events, using the multiplication rules.
5. Find the conditional probability of an event.
6. Find the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events, using the fundamental counting rule.
7. Find the number of ways that r objects can be selected from n objects, using the permutation rule.
8. Find the number of ways that r objects can be selected from n objects without regard to order, using
the combination rule.
9. Find the probability of an event, using the counting rules.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 2

 Introduction
From the time you awake until you go to bed, you make decisions regarding the
possible events that are governed at least in part by chance. For example,
should you carry an umbrella to work today? Will your car battery last until
spring? Should you accept that new job? Which route you will travel to school
today?

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 3

 Introduction
Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event
occurring.
Many people are familiar with probability from observing or playing games of
chance, such as card games, slot machines, or lotteries.
In addition to being used in games of chance, probability theory is used in the
fields of insurance, investments, and weather forecasting and in various other
areas.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 4

 Introduction
Probability is the basis of inferential statistics. For example:

predictions are based on probability, and hypotheses are tested by using

probability.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 5

Introduction
The basic concepts of probability are explained in this chapter. These
concepts include probability experiments, sample spaces, the addition
and multiplication rules, and the probabilities of complementary events.
Also in this chapter, you will learn the rule for counting, the differences
between permutations and combinations, and how to figure out how
many different combinations for specific situations exist.
Finally, Section 4–5 explains how the counting rules and the probability
rules can be used together to solve a wide variety of problems.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 6

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
The theory of probability grew out of the study of various
games of chance using coins, dice, and cards.
Since these devices lend themselves well to the application of
concepts of probability, they will be used in this chapter as
examples.
This section begins by explaining some basic concepts of
probability. Then the types of probability and probability
rules are discussed.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 7

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Basic Concepts:
Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a
card from a deck are called probability experiments.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 8

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Basic Concepts:
A trial means flipping a coin once, rolling one die once, or the like.
When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: head or
tail. (Note: We exclude the possibility of a coin landing on its edge.)
In the roll of a single die, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, or 6. In any experiment, the set of all possible outcomes is called
the sample space.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 9

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are
shown here.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 10

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 11

 4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

One die=6
Two dice=6*6=36
Three dice=6*6*6=216

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 12

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 13

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 14

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 15

 4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

One baby={B, G} 2 WAYS

Two Babies={BB, BG, GB, GG} 2*2=4 WAYS

Three Babies={BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG} 2*2*2=8
GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 16
 4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
In Examples 4–1 through 4–3, the sample spaces were found by observation and
reasoning; however, another way to find all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment is to use a tree diagram.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 17

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 18

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 19
4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Basic Concepts:
An outcome was defined previously as the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment. In many problems, one must find
the probability of two or more outcomes. For this reason, it is
necessary to distinguish between an outcome and an event.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 20

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
An event can be one outcome or more than one outcome.
For example, if a die is rolled and a 6 shows, this result is called an
outcome, since it is a result of a single trial.
An event with one outcome is called a simple event.
The event of getting an odd number when a die is rolled is called a
compound event, since it consists of three outcomes or three simple
events.
In general, a compound event consists of two or more outcomes or
simple events.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 21

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of probability:
1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 22

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical Probability:
Uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen. You do not actually have to perform the
experiment to determine that probability. Classical probability is so
named because it was the first type of probability studied formally
by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 23

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to
occur.
For example, when a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same probability of
1
occurring. Since there are six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of .
6
When a card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 cards, you assume that the deck has
been shuffled, and each card has the same probability of being selected. In this case, it is
1
.
52

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 24

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 25

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 26

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 27

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 28

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 29

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 30

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 31

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 32

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 33

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 34

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 35

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are four basic probability rules. These rules are helpful in
solving probability problems, in understanding the nature of
probability, and in deciding if your answers to the problems are
correct.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 36

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 37

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 38

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 39

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 40

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Complementary Events:
Another important concept in probability theory is that of
complementary events. When a die is rolled, for instance, the sample
space consists of the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The event E of
getting odd numbers consists of the outcomes 1, 3, and 5. The event
of not getting an odd number is called the complement of event E,
and it consists of the outcomes 2, 4, and 6.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 41

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 42

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 43

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 44

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
The rule for complementary events can be stated algebraically
in three ways.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 45

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 46

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 47

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Probabilities can be represented pictorially by Venn diagrams.

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 48

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical Probability:
The difference between classical and empirical probability is
that classical probability assumes that certain outcomes are
equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is rolled), while
empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine
the likelihood of outcomes.
In empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000
times, observe the various frequencies, and use these
frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome.
GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 49
4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 50

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 51

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 52

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 53

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 54

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 55

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 56

Reading Assignment and Practice Problems_
Chapter#4
Reading Sections 10th Ed:4-1, 4-2, 4-3

Practice Problems 7th Ed, page 195: 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 21
page 204: 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 13
page 220: 3, 5, 8, 15, 19, 20

GSTA 181 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS CHAPTER 4 SPRING 2024 57