‫المعهد الكندي العالي لتكنولوجيا‬

‫الهندسة و اإلدارة‬
Business Department Course Name: Business Information: Access
& Use / Information System Management
Business Administration and Business Technology Course Code: BADM 321, BTEC 424,
INFO 442, HUMN 239
Spring 2023/2024 Assignment Period: One Week
Assignment Total Marks: 10 Marks
Instructor Name: Dr. Marwa M. Ghareeb No. of Pages: 3 Pages

Student Name : Amr Ahmed Farouk

Student ID: 20200930

Answer the following questions:

1) Use Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average approach for 5 weeks
to forecast the following period of time:
Week Sales
1 3000
2 3500
3 3800
4 4100
5 4300
6 4400
7 4650
8 4900

1)Moving Average Approach

Week Sales Forecasting using 5-weeks moving average approach

1 3000
2 3500
3 3800
4 4100
5 4300
6 4400 (4300+4100+3800+3500+3000)/5=3740
7 4650 (4400+4300+4100+3800+3500)/5=4020
8 4900 (4650+4400+4300+4100+3800)/5=4250
(4900+4650+4400+4300+4100)/5=4470

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 ‫المعهد الكندي العالي لتكنولوجيا‬
‫الهندسة و اإلدارة‬
2)Weighted Moving Average Approach

Week Sales Forecasting using 5-weeks weighted moving average approach

1 3000
2 3500
3 3800
4 4100
5 4300
6 4400 ((4300x5)+(4100x4)+(3800x3)+(3500x2)+(3000x1))/15=3953.33
7 4650 ((440x5)+(4300x4)+(4100x3)+(3800x2)+(3500x1))/15=4173.33
8 4900 ((4650x5)+(4400x4)+(4300x3)+(4100x2)+(3800x1))/15=4383.33
((4900x5)+(4650x4)+(4400x3)+(4300x2)+(4100x1)/15=4600

2) Using Exponential smoothing with α = 0.7 and the first forecast value = 91
Year Sales
1 90
2 95
3 99
4 105
5 110
6 125
7 138
8 145

Year Sales Forecasting using exponential smoothing approach

1 90 91
2 95 90.3= 91+0.7x(90-91)

3 99
93.59=90.3+0.7x(95-90.3)

4 105 97.377=93.59+0.7x(99-93.59)
5 110 102.713=97.377+0.7x(105-97.377)
6 125 107.814=102.713+0.7x(110-102.713)

7 138 119.844=107.814+0.7x(125-107.814)

8 145 132.553=119.844+0.7x(138-119.844)

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 ‫المعهد الكندي العالي لتكنولوجيا‬
‫الهندسة و اإلدارة‬

3) An investor wants to invest sum of his money. There are three investment
opportunities: furniture, vehicles, or financial shares. Analyze the following
payoff table using Optimistic approach, the Conservative approach, and
MiniMax Regret Approach to recommend the best decision:
State of Nature
Available investment
(S1) )S2( (S3)
opportunities
Growth Recession Inflation

Furniture(D1) 12 8 7

Vehicles (D2) 16 9 4

Financial Shares (D3) 25 10 -2

1)Optimistic Approach (Max of Max)

D.A Max Payoff

D1 12
D2 16
D3 25
The recommended decision using optimistic approach is D3

2)Conservative Approach (Max of Min)

D.A Min Payoff

D1 7
D2 4
D3 -2
The recommended decision using conservative approach is D1

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 ‫المعهد الكندي العالي لتكنولوجيا‬
‫الهندسة و اإلدارة‬
3)Minimax Regret Approach

Firstly: Regret Table

D.A S1 S2 S3
D1 25-12=13 10-8=2 7-7=0
D2 25-16=9 10-9=1 7-4=3
D3 25-25=0 10-10=0 7-(-2) =9

Secondly: Max Regret Table

D.A Max Regret

D1 13
D2 9
D3 9
The recommended decision using minimax approach are D2 and D3

5)Suppose Sameh (Owner of a Restaurant) is faced with the following pay-off table. He has
to choose how many salads to make in advance each day before he knows the actual
demand. Analyze the following payoff table using the MiniMax Regret Approach to
recommend the best decision

State of Nature

Decision alternatives bust normal boom recession

40 salads 10 -80 160 0

50 salads -20 50 180 20

60 salads 40 20 240 -30

70 salads 60 40 250 -40

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 ‫المعهد الكندي العالي لتكنولوجيا‬
‫الهندسة و اإلدارة‬
Firstly: Regret Table:
State of Nature

Decision alternatives bust normal boom recession

40 salads 50 130 90 20

50 salads 80 0 70 0

60 salads 20 30 10 50

70 salads 0 10 0 60

Secondly: Max Regret Table

Minimax payoff
40 salads 130
50 salads 80
60 salads 50
70 salads 60

The recommended decision using minimax approach is 60 salads

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