B&K Securities is the trade name of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.

Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number: INH300000211

Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Trinity : A Top-down view

In our recently held Trinity 2024, we had companies from across all major sectors and across all market
cap spectrum. While some of the sectors have near-term challenges but in general, for most sectors,
the medium-term outlook looks very strong. Companies have much stronger balance sheets than ever,
with improving return ratios. Most of the companies are spending on capex, mostly been funded through
equity and internal accruals, thus reducing net debt. An important point to note is that one can find
interesting companies in most sectors, which implies that portfolios need to be more broad-based.

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

• Companies expect two-wheeler industry to grow at high single-digit and PV industry to show low
single-digit growth in FY25. There are mixed views on CV sector and there is hope of recovery in the
Tractor segment. Tyres are expected to grow in single digit.
• Structurally, we are seeing many Auto Ancillary diversify into non-auto segment making them look
more like Engineering companies.
• For some of the ancillaries, content per vehicle is increasing due to statutory changes and
premiumisation.
• Outsourcing opportunity continues to be a play as manufacturing moves away from Europe.
Top ideas: M&M, ZFCV, Sundram Fasteners and Sandhar Technologies.

BFSI: Banks
• The banks’ management expect credit growth to moderate in FY25E lower than in FY24.
• Credit-deposit ratio could remain at the current level or could see a marginal dip.
• Most of the banks’ management expect deposit cost to rise in FY25E.
• Margins could remain stable, which would be supported by change in credit mix.
• On the asset quality front, most of the banks guided for a rise in credit costs as recoveries could trend lower.
Top ideas: Karur Vysya Bank and Jammu & Kashmir Bank (Not Rated).

BFSI: NBFCs
• NBFCs reiterated their growth guidance for FY25 with larger and mid-sized NBFCs reiterating the growth
guidance of 15-30% growth. While smaller NBFCs guiding for 25-30% growth.
• Return ratios are expected to see an expansion from the current levels.
• Strong growth traction continues in the LCV, SCV and Used vehicle segments.
• HCV segment remains weak on the back of elections in the first quarter.
• Affordable housing finance seeing strong demand but supply of apartments in the affordable segment
remains a constraint.
• LAP and secured SME financing continues to see strong demand especially in the Micro end of the
market (10-20 lakh ticket size). AHFCs are diversifying more towards LAP and Self Employed to maintain
yields, as prime segment continues to face pressure on yields.
• Unsecured loans have faced a sharp deceleration as companies have slowed down growth on the
back of regulatory pushback.
• Gold loans is being highlighted as a new focus area by multiple NBFCs.

2
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Cost of borrowing could move up for lower rated NBFCs.

• Credit costs remains under control for all players.
• Compliance and RBI audits have become significantly more stringent. RBI has moved from imposing
monetary penalties to restricting business.
Top ideas: Shriram Finance, Chola Finance and Home First Finance.

BFSI: Non-Lending
• Life Insurance companies highlighted that the regulatory change could lead to increased surrender
payouts, although product mix and commission structure change would help offsetting any impact on
margins. Incremental focus will be on non-par, annuities and protection.
• Motor segment is seeing some softening in both competitive intensity and claims severity.
• Retail Health is expected to see steady growth in FY25, largely driven by volume.
• For AMC’s Inflows remain steady in the equity side. Managements are also eyeing higher yielding debt
assets as well as alternates business.
• Distributors continue to benefit from increasing allocation towards equity in the savings pool.
• Capital markets companies are focusing on scaling up new products.
Top idea: Prudent Corporate Advisory Services.

Cement
• Cement industry would grow at a CAGR of 7-8% over the next five years, which indicates incremental
demand of +200 MT, whereas capacity pipeline is much lower.
• Near-term demand trend is expected to be muted.
• Cement pricing has been under pressure and gradual improvement is anticipated in the coming
quarter.
• Majority of players in the industry are increasing their share of green power in the overall mix with
addition of WHRS/TPP capacities.
• Most of the companies are trying to improve the sale of premium products in the overall mix to capture
rapid urbanisation and brand positioning.
• Industry is poised for consolidation in the coming year given changing industry dynamics primarily in
southern region.
Top idea: Shree Cement

Chemicals
• Global headwinds in Chemicals industry to continue in FY25 in selective sub-sectors.
• Performance chemical companies, who manufacture dyes, pigments, polymers, additives, commodity
chemicals gave a mixed response to the inventory situation.
• Competition from China is evident, a few companies mentioned that China’s earlier resolve of moving
into more value-added, downstream and specialty chemicals seems to be fading away.
Top ideas: PI Industries, Sudarshan Chemical and Vinati Organics (Not Rated).

3
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Consumer Durables
• Demand momentum has remained robust during the past few months especially for cooling products
like Room Air Conditioners (RAC), Fans, Air Coolers, etc.
• Owing to robust growth, margins have witnessed improvement and is expected to stay at the current
levels for the coming quarters.
• In Kitchen Appliances segment, demand environment remained challenging but is believed to be
bottoming out. However, competitive intensity remains elevated impacting prices and profitability.
Top idea: Voltas.

Consumer: Building Materials

• The construction sector is witnessing notable upswing preliminary fueled by housing boom, and this trend
is anticipated to continue in the forthcoming years supporting growth for cables. Both the construction
and real estate sectors are poised for substantial growth presenting a promising outlook for the industry.
• For Plastic Pipes players near-term demand trend remained strong primarily supported by pick-up in
agriculture pipe.
• Wood-panel industry is seeing a period of subdued demand and weaker realisations in the near-term
coupled with cost inflation, primarily timber prices.
• MDF industry is currently facing an oversupply situation, whereas most of the players are trying to
improve capacity utilisation, which is expected to keep prices low for the next few quarters.
Consumer Staples
• Summer portfolio is doing well for all companies. Expect robust numbers for companies having higher
summer portfolio.
• Increase in penetration and reach would aid volume growths.
• Rural growth coming back.
• Premiumisation led growth.
• Price growth coming back for most categories; further enhancing topline visibility.
Top ideas: Colgate-Palmolive and Emami.

Industrials
• Government capex remains upbeat and private sector confidence is also reasonably high as reflected
in the strong order pipeline across most end markets.
• The companies are witnessing sustained high growth from key areas such as energy transition towards
green & renewable, Power Transmission & Distribution, Data centres, Railways, Defence, Water, F&B, etc.
• Export outlook remains mixed.
• Order pipeline in defence is strong at Rs 6.5 trn giving long-term visibility of demand.
Top ideas: L&T, Cummins and Titagarh Rail Systems.

IT Services/Products
• Companies believe AI offers more opportunities than what it threatens.
• India is very well placed to command and drive its own digital stack. This will largely have open source
base and offerings built upon it.
Top Ideas: Affle (India) and RateGain Travel Technologies (Not Rated).

4
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Metals
• Pent-up demand in the domestic infra side will lead to better pricing for long steel players.
• Recent correction in the coking coal prices will help the metal companies to maintain healthy spread
in the near-term.
• Chinese decarbonization strategy and government stimulus will enhance their domestic consumption.
• Non-ferrous market looks stable considering the lower raw material cost and elevated LME post US
sanctioned on Russian aluminium.
Metals: Steel Pipes
• Healthy order book in water-based pipes.
• Near-term slowdown in demand in O&G-based pipes.
• Strong export opportunities.
Top idea: Electrosteel Castings.
Metals: Wire Ropes
• Steel wire ropes have diverse applications with continuous replacement cycles ranging from 6 months
to 10 years across industries like cranes, oil & offshore, mining, fishing, elevator and aerial transportation.
• Highly fragmented industry with lower cost of production in India with strong engineering capabilities
leading to market share gains.
Top idea: Usha Martin.

Pharma & Healthcare

• Strong capex cycle for capturing structural opportunities in CDMO ahead continues.
• Specialty continues to be a long-term theme.
• Issues around US Generics stabilising.
• Domestic IPM continues decent growth.
• Deal interest continues across sub-sectors.
• Diagnostics companies are focusing on volume led growth.
• Hospitals are turning strong focus on Specialty.
Top Ideas: Sun Pharma, Neuland and Caplin Point.

Oil & Gas

• The Government is focused on providing impetus on driving gas consumption in India across verticals.
Recently, Power ministry has directed companies to fire gas powered power plants.
• Years of investment in developing gas infrastructure finally delivering results with India’s gas
consumption reaching record highs of 182 mmscmd.
• Focus now shifting from traditional pipeline/refinery expansion to petrochemical and renewable investments.
Top idea: GAIL (India)

Real Estate
• Demand in the residential segment continues to remain strong across all key major cities.
• Players operating in the housing market are fewer than earlier, which is regulating the supply, keeping the
unsold inventory under check, which is supporting healthy price growth as well as limiting speculative
activity in the market.

5
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Prudent as well as larger players with comfortable balance sheet are actively looking to add new
projects.
• In the commercial segment, office spaces are seeing healthy demand growth, especially from GCCs,
and incremental leasing outlook continues to remain upbeat.
• Retail spaces in Grade-A malls are incrementally being preferred by potential tenants given the limited
availability of spaces in good catchment areas.
Top ideas: Century Textiles and Arvind SmartSpaces (Not Rated).

Retail
• Overall spending remains muted.
• Discretionary sector observing MoM growth.
• Expect better sales across segments in 2H; primarily led by festivities and wedding.
• Competitive intensity rising in QSR space. Expect positive SSSG for the players given weak base and
some demand recovery.
• Gold players report healthy growth in the near-term.
Top ideas: Trent and Westlife Foodworld.

Staffing
• Increasing formalisation with higher impetus on manufacturing will aid sustained growth and resilience
to the competition from informal space for the organised staffing players.
• Labour laws implementation would be the key driver of the sector.
Top idea: TeamLease Services.

Sugar
• Sugar year 23-24 is gone, ethanol diversion will be far lower at 2 mn tonnes compared to 3.9 mn tonnes
in Sugar year 22-23, due to Government’s desire to check sugar prices.
• With hike in price of cane, ethanol price and policy should change once it is a normal year.
Top idea: Balrampur Chini Mills.

Textiles
• Downstream sectors like garmenting and home textiles are showing early signs of demand revival.
• Steady cotton and Yarn prices; stable cotton-yarn spreads.
• Limited spindle capacity addition in India and globally. Indicators point towards a turnaround in the
spinning cycle.
• Demand in the US and Europe is showing early signs of revival.
Top idea: KPR Mill.

Utilities
• Power demand growing 6-7% p.a. with peak load demand not being able to meet without coal.
• Private sector companies focusing only on growth mostly from renewables.

6
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Index.........................................................................................Page No. Index.........................................................................................Page No.

3M India........................................................................................................................................10 Century Plyboards (India)...................................................................................88
360 ONE WAM........................................................................................................................ 12 Century Textiles and Industries....................................................................90
Aarti Drugs................................................................................................................................14 CESC............................................................................................................................................... 92
Action Construction Equipment....................................................................16 Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company...........94
Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company.............18 CIE Automotive India..................................................................................................96
Aeroflex Industries........................................................................................................ 20 City Union Bank.................................................................................................................98
Affle (India)..............................................................................................................................22 Colgate-Palmolive (India).................................................................................100
Ajanta Pharma.................................................................................................................. 24 Computer Age Management Services............................................. 102
Allcargo Logistics........................................................................................................... 26 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals....................................104
Angel One................................................................................................................................ 28 Cummins India...............................................................................................................106
Apcotex Industries........................................................................................................30 DCB Bank................................................................................................................................108
APL Apollo Tubes.............................................................................................................. 32 DCM Shriram........................................................................................................................110
Apollo Pipes...........................................................................................................................34 Dr. Lal PathLabs................................................................................................................. 112
Arvind Fashions................................................................................................................36 E.I.D.-Parry (India)...........................................................................................................114
Arvind SmartSpaces..................................................................................................38 eClerx Services.................................................................................................................116
Ashok Leyland.....................................................................................................................40 Elecon Engineering Company.......................................................................118
Ashoka Buildcon.............................................................................................................. 42 Electronics Mart India..............................................................................................120
Aster DM Healthcare..................................................................................................44 Electrosteel Castings................................................................................................122
Astral..............................................................................................................................................46 Emami.........................................................................................................................................124
Aurobindo Pharma......................................................................................................48 Escorts Kubota..................................................................................................................126
Automotive Axles............................................................................................................50 Fedbank Financial Services............................................................................ 128
Avalon Technologies.................................................................................................. 52 Fine Organic Industries......................................................................................... 130
Axis Bank...................................................................................................................................54 Finolex Industries...........................................................................................................132
AXISCADES Technologies......................................................................................56 Firstsource Solutions................................................................................................ 134
Azad Engineering...........................................................................................................58 GAIL (India)............................................................................................................................ 136
Bajaj Consumer Care...............................................................................................60 Galaxy Surfactants.................................................................................................... 138
Balrampur Chini Mills................................................................................................ 62 GHCL............................................................................................................................................. 140
Bharat Wire Ropes........................................................................................................64 Glenmark Life Sciences.........................................................................................142
Biocon..........................................................................................................................................66 GMM Pfaudler...................................................................................................................144
BLS E-Services.....................................................................................................................68 Go Fashion (India)....................................................................................................... 146
Blue Star......................................................................................................................................70 Godawari Power & Ispat......................................................................................148
Brand Concepts...............................................................................................................72 Grasim Industries........................................................................................................ 150
BSE.....................................................................................................................................................74 Gujarat Fluorochemicals....................................................................................152
C.E. Info Systems...............................................................................................................76 Gulf Oil Lubricants India.......................................................................................154
Can Fin Homes...................................................................................................................78 Happiest Minds Technologies...................................................................... 156
Caplin Point Laboratories....................................................................................80 Happy Forgings..............................................................................................................158
CarTrade Tech.................................................................................................................... 82 Havells India.......................................................................................................................160
Castrol India.........................................................................................................................84 HDFC Asset Management Company.................................................. 162
CCL Products (India)...................................................................................................86 HDFC Bank.............................................................................................................................164

7
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Index.........................................................................................Page No. Index.........................................................................................Page No.

HDFC Life Insurance Company...................................................................166 Macrotech Developers........................................................................................243
Hikal...............................................................................................................................................168 Mahendra Brothers Exports...........................................................................245
Hindalco Industries.....................................................................................................170 Mahindra & Mahindra........................................................................................... 247
Hindustan Foods............................................................................................................ 172 Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services.....................................249
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation..........................................................174 Mahindra Logistics......................................................................................................251
Home First Finance Company......................................................................176 Marico.......................................................................................................................................253
ICICI Bank................................................................................................................................178 Mindspace Business Parks REIT..................................................................255
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company...........................180 MM Forgings...................................................................................................................... 257
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company...................................... 182 Mold-Tek Packaging................................................................................................259
IDFC First Bank..................................................................................................................184 Monika Alcobev...............................................................................................................261
IFGL Refractories............................................................................................................186 Motherson Sumi Wiring India.......................................................................263
India Shelter Finance Corporation.........................................................188 Motilal Oswal Financial Services..............................................................265
IndiaMART InterMESH............................................................................................... 190 Natco Pharma................................................................................................................. 267
Indo Count Industries..............................................................................................192 Navin Fluorine International..........................................................................269
IndusInd Bank................................................................................................................... 194 Nelcast.......................................................................................................................................271
Info Edge (India).............................................................................................................196 Neogen Chemicals................................................................................................... 273
INOX India..............................................................................................................................198 Neuland Laboratories............................................................................................ 275
Jammu & Kashmir Bank......................................................................................200 NIIT Learnings Systems..........................................................................................277
Jindal SAW............................................................................................................................202 Nippon Life India Asset Management............................................... 279
Jindal Stainless..............................................................................................................204 Nitin Spinners.....................................................................................................................281
Jindal Steel & Power.................................................................................................206 Nuvoco Vistas Corporation............................................................................283
JSW Energy..........................................................................................................................208 Oberoi Realty....................................................................................................................285
Kalpataru Projects International............................................................... 210 PCBL............................................................................................................................................. 287
Karnataka Bank...............................................................................................................212 PDS.................................................................................................................................................289
Karur Vysya Bank.......................................................................................................... 214 Persistent Systems......................................................................................................291
Kaynes Technology India................................................................................... 216 Petronet LNG......................................................................................................................293
KEI Industries...................................................................................................................... 218 PI Industries........................................................................................................................295
KFin Technologies.......................................................................................................220 Piramal Enterprises................................................................................................... 297
Kirloskar Pneumatic Company..................................................................222 PNC Infratech...................................................................................................................299
KNR Constructions.....................................................................................................224 Polycab India..................................................................................................................... 301
Kotak Mahindra Bank.............................................................................................226 Prestige Estates Projects....................................................................................303
KPR Mill......................................................................................................................................228 Prince Pipes and Fittings................................................................................... 305
Krsnna Diagnostics..................................................................................................230 Privi Speciality Chemicals................................................................................ 307
L&T MBDA Missile Systems.................................................................................232 Protean eGov Technologies.......................................................................... 309
Landmark Cars..............................................................................................................233 Prudent Corporate Advisory Services.................................................. 311
Laurus Labs.........................................................................................................................235 Punjab National Bank.............................................................................................. 313
Laxmi Organic Industries.................................................................................. 237 Radico Khaitan................................................................................................................ 315
Life Insurance Corporation of India.....................................................239 Rajratan Global Wire.................................................................................................317
Lumax Industries............................................................................................................241 Rallis India............................................................................................................................. 319

8
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Index.........................................................................................Page No. Index.........................................................................................Page No.

RateGain Travel Technologies......................................................................321 Tata Consumer Products................................................................................. 399
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes.............................................................................323 Tata Motors.......................................................................................................................... 401
RBL Bank..................................................................................................................................325 TeamLease Services.............................................................................................. 403
Rishabh Instruments............................................................................................... 327 The Great Eastern Shipping Company........................................... 405
RITES.............................................................................................................................................329 The Phoenix Mills..........................................................................................................407
Rossari Biotech.................................................................................................................331 The Ramco Cements............................................................................................. 409
RR Kabel...................................................................................................................................333 The Tata Power Company...................................................................................411
S.P. Apparels.......................................................................................................................335 Thermax.................................................................................................................................. 413
Safari Industries (India)........................................................................................ 337 Tilaknagar Industries............................................................................................... 415
Sagar Cements.............................................................................................................339 Tips Industries...................................................................................................................417
Sai Silks (Kalamandir).............................................................................................. 341 Titagarh Rail Systems............................................................................................. 419
Samvardhana Motherson International........................................343 Trent...............................................................................................................................................421
Sandhar Technologies........................................................................................ 345 TTK Prestige........................................................................................................................423
Saregama India............................................................................................................ 347 Union Bank of India...................................................................................................425
SBFC Finance................................................................................................................... 349 United Spirits..................................................................................................................... 427
SBI Life Insurance Company........................................................................... 351 UPL..................................................................................................................................................429
SG Mart....................................................................................................................................353 Usha Martin......................................................................................................................... 431
Sharda Cropchem....................................................................................................355 UTI Asset Management Company........................................................433
Shoppers Stop................................................................................................................357 V-Guard Industries.................................................................................................. 435
Shree Cement.................................................................................................................359 V-Mart Retail.....................................................................................................................437
Shriram Finance............................................................................................................ 361 Vardhman Special Steels................................................................................ 439
Shriram Pistons & Ring..........................................................................................363 Varun Beverages..........................................................................................................441
Shyam Metalics............................................................................................................ 365 Vimta Labs.......................................................................................................................... 443
SIS...................................................................................................................................................367 Vinati Organics.............................................................................................................445
Sonata Software......................................................................................................... 369 VIP Industries....................................................................................................................447
SRF....................................................................................................................................................371 Voltas........................................................................................................................................ 449
Star Health and Allied Insurance Company.............................. 373 VST Tillers Tractors...................................................................................................... 451
Steel Strips Wheels.................................................................................................... 375 Welspun Corp................................................................................................................. 453
Sterling Tools......................................................................................................................377 Westlife Foodworld................................................................................................... 455
Stovekraft............................................................................................................................. 379 Wonderla Holidays....................................................................................................457
Subros........................................................................................................................................ 381 Yasho Industries.......................................................................................................... 459
Sudarshan Chemical Industries..............................................................383 Yatra Online........................................................................................................................ 461
Sula Vineyards............................................................................................................... 385 Yes Bank................................................................................................................................. 463
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.................................................................387 Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services.............................................................. 465
Sundram Fasteners................................................................................................. 389 ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India......................467
Suprajit Engineering................................................................................................. 391 Zydus Wellness.............................................................................................................. 469
Supriya Lifescience...................................................................................................393
Suven Pharmaceuticals.................................................................................... 395
Symphony............................................................................................................................ 397

9
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data 3M India

Price (Rs) 33,385
Focus on the emerging sectors
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TMIN.BO
• With the focus area of government investments towards roads,
Bloomberg code 3M IN
railways, metro stations and airports, along with India expected
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4,508 to grow the PV segment production by 5-8% in FY25, automotive
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.2 electrification and premiumisation in SUVs, which will help 3M India
Issued shares (mn) 11.3 increase their revenue streams.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The main segments contributing to the current plan of 3M India
Absolute 10 4 33 are expected to be Automotive, Transportation & Infrastructure,

Relative 9 4 14 Manufacturing & Consumer Retail. The trends in Consumer

Electronics, Climate Technology & Data Centers & Semi-conductor
Valuation Ratios
Eco-system are expected to provide additional growth momentum.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
o In the ecosystem of Consumer Electronics 3M expect localisation
EPS (Rs) 242.5 402.1 520.2 and increased local value addition over two-three years.
+/- (%) 67.5 65.8 29.4 o Rapid growth in data centres is expected to double by 2025 with

PER (x) 137.7 57.1 64.2 investments of a US$ 10 bn fund to invest in the semi-conductor
manufacturing ecosystem.
PBV (x) 17.1 15.4 17.4
o Plans to increase the non-fossil-based electricity generation
Div./Yield (%) 2.5 0.5 0.3
capacity to 500 GW by 2030. The National Green Hydrogen mission
EV/Sales (x) 10.8 6.3 8.6 has emphasis on domestic manufacturing of electrolyzers and

EV/EBITDA (x) 92.8 41.3 47.6 production of green hydrogen. Globally, as part of the sustainability
commitments, 3M has targets to reduce use of 125 mn pounds of
Major Shareholders (%)
plastics.
Promoters 75
• Globally, 3M is looking to invest in cleaner technology to cater to the
FPIs 4
energy segment, auto electrification, start-ups in carbon capture and
MFs 7
hydrogen economy.
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 13 • Local value addition across all the segments is ~60% of the overall
sales and increased by 100-125 bps over the past four-five years.
Relative Performance
• The outlook for the automotive industry is expected to be around 3-5%
40,000
in FY25; however, they expect to perform well due to their penetration
35,000
in different segments. Growth opportunity in revenue is expected to
30,000
25,000
be driven from the Safety & Industrial business.
20,000 • Most of the production in China is done for the Chinese local market
15,000 and minimal for the export internally to 3M, establishing production
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

capabilities in India would be possible if the customers move their

buyer base from the Chinese market to the Indian market.
3M India
• 3M is working closely with the emerging and established OEM players
Sensex (rebased)
on product development of their products bespoke to the OEM models
which is expected to get solidified in the next 18 months.
Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi
Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Roughly, 40% of the technology platforms in 3M is linked to manufacturing, with AI use cases, 3M India
continues to reap the benefits of these existent R&D facilities and hence the capex is relatively light.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 30,168 29,866 26,048 33,358 39,594 41,894 6.8

EBITDA 5,356 4,497 2,595 3,892 6,043 7,591 7.2
PAT 3,659 3,222 1,624 2,720 4,510 5,834 9.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 47.0 41.9 38.6 37.3 37.9 40.2 –

EBITDA margin 17.8 15.1 10.0 11.7 15.3 18.1 –
PAT margin 12.1 10.8 6.2 8.1 11.4 13.9 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.6) –

EPS (Rs) 306.0 287.3 144.8 242.5 402.1 520.2 11.2
BV (Rs) 1,277.5 1,561.1 1,703.3 1,946.9 1,495.7 1,914.2 8.4
RoCE (%) 42.8 26.5 11.7 17.5 30.7 39.8 –
RoA (%) 49.9 19.4 8.9 13.1 21.5 26.3 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 29.3 19.4 8.9 13.3 23.4 30.5 –

Net profit margin 12.1 10.8 6.2 8.2 11.4 13.9 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 –

11
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data 360 ONE WAM

Price (Rs) 776
Set to launch new business lines
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code IIFW.BO
• The new HNI business segment is being launched in existing locations
Bloomberg code 360ONE IN
in the initial phase.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,361
• The economics of the HNI business are better due to a primarily
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7 distribution-led model, which leads to better retention.
Issued shares (mn) 361 • Going forward, the additional hires in the core proposition will break-
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M even first, followed by HNI and then global business. By the end of
Absolute (1) 8 85 three-four years, C/I is likely to improve to 44-45% and then settle down
Relative (1) 8 67 at 42-43% in the longer term.

Valuation Ratios • Global business, with setup in Singapore and Dubai, will earn both
recurring as well as transaction-based revenue, targeting the UHNI
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
business and aid retentions.
EPS (Rs) 16.2 18.5 22.4
• On AMC, the company’s focus will always remain on Alternate products
P/E 47.8 42.0 34.6 and institutional business, rather than retail.
BVPS (Rs) 84.2 87.8 96.9

P/B 9.2 8.8 8.0

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 18
FPIs 63
MFs 6
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 11

Relative Performance
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

360 ONE WAM

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Kartikeya Mohata

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com kartikeya.mohata@bksec.com

12
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

ARR 4,437 5,345 5,830 9,120 10,496 13,306 25.6

TBR 5,794 3,855 3,325 4,862 5,154 5,150 7.5
Total Income 10,667 8,509 10,529 15,355 15,687 19,650 23.3
Operating Profit 4,934 3,555 3,476 6,141 8,466 8,891 25.8
PAT 3,838 2,064 3,693 5,818 6,679 8,018 40.4
AUM

Wealth Management ARR 374,973 406,554 645,976 888,573 1,088,761 1,556,308 39.9
Wealth Management TBR 972,200 1,155,448 1,441,133 1,828,057 1,736,601 2,390,300 19.9
Asset Management 207,726 219,395 373,718 555,742 582,983 722,479 34.7
Retention (bps)

Wealth Management ARR 105 99 75 73 70 62

AIF 75 76 74 87 102 93 -
PMS 74 53 60 53 50 51
Mutual Fund 68 35 51 43 46 50
Profitability Ratios

Operating Margin 48.2 38.6 38 43.9 54.1 48.2 –

C/I Ratio 49.7 61.4 53.9 51.1 45.8 48.7
ROE 16.2 7 12.5 20.2 22 24.4 –
Valuation Ratios
EPS 44.6 23.4 42.2 16.2 18.5 22.4 –
P/E 18.4 35.1 19.5 47.8 42.0 34.6 –
BVPS 81.7 84 79.4 84.2 87.8 96.9 –
P/B 10.0 9.8 10.4 9.2 8.8 8.0 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/360 ONE WAM - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 24 Apr 24.pdf

13
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Aarti Drugs

Price (Rs) 477
Better pricing and lower input cost to aid profits, new capex
BSE Sensex 73,961 steadily commencing
Reuters code ADRG.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code ARTD IN • Guidance
Market cap. (US$ mn) 525 o EBITDA margins can be around 14-15%, upside tigger would be 1.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2 approval of facility from USFDA, leading to sales in the US markets
Issued shares (mn) 92 and EU markets as well, 2. Approvals of products from European
agencies, 3. backward integration of methyl amines (used to
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
manufacture metformin).
Absolute (5) (4) 9
o E22 plant which is for the US and EU markets. Once this plant is
Relative (6) (4) (9)
cleared by USFDA, the EU clients (which also manufacture for the
Valuation Ratios US) will start procuring from the company again. Hence, clearance
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 of this facility will be a key trigger.

EPS (Rs) 22.1 18.0 18.4 • APIs

o Aarti Drugs is one of the biggest players in ciprofloxacin,
+/- (%) (26.3) (18.8) 2.3
metronidazole, ofloxacin, Nimesulide, Metformin, Tinidazole and
PER (x) 21.5 26.6 26.0
Fluroquinolones, Celecoxib. The company has to put a lot of work
PBV (x) 4.3 3.7 3.5 in norfloxacin.

Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 o API prices might not go down further, it has reached the pre-Covid
levels.
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.8 2.0
o The company is increasing Metformin capacity from 1,450 tonnes
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.9 16.3 15.8
per month to around 1,850 tonnes per month and eventually to
Major Shareholders (%) 3,000 tonnes per month, hence, captive consumption of methyl
Promoters 57 amines will lead to better margins and profits.
FPIs 3 o The company is de-bottlenecking the metformin plant which will take
MFs 5 the capacity to 1,850 tonnes per month and also working on process
BFSI’s 1 improvements, post this is done the company will file for USFDA.
Public & Others 34 o Aarti has around 50% global market share in cipro, growth will
Relative Performance come in from gaining of market share.
700 • Dermatology Product –Salicylic Acid
600 o Capacity at salicylic acid is 2,000 tonnes per month. There has
500 been some vendor issue which would be resolved within 10-15 days.
400 o Salicylic acid used as an intermediate in aspirin, used in salicylates
300 and also used in dermatology products.
200
o The product can be classified for anti-dumping duty, once it is
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

classified the margins can be higher.

• Capex
Aarti Drugs
Sensex (rebased) o Tarapur greenfield capex of Salicylic Acid is Rs 1.5-2 bn capex (also
has cogen power for other plants).

Rohit Bhat Maulik Varia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com maulik.varia@bksec.com

14
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o The company is considering smaller capex of sister products of salicylic acid and other derivative of
methyl amine products.
• Formulations
o The sales of oncology formulations will become visible in sales in about two years as product
registrations are currently ongoing. It will take around two years to file all products and gradually
start obtaining approvals.
o UK MHRA inspection is expected soon, USFDA inspection conducted recently, the company will
shortly file CAPA. More than 40% of formulation sales is exports and going ahead this will continue to
increase.
• Other business highlights
o The company’s profitability margin is dependent on raw material pricing. For instance, the raw
material is priced at Rs 1,500/kg the company’s absolute profitability spread is fixed at 600/- kg but
even if the raw material prices increase to Rs 1,800/kg the profit spread for the company still remains
the same, this however leads to change in the EBITDA margin.
o For Chinese players, the cost of production has gone up due to pollution norms being strict in the
last few years.
o ZLD (Zero Liquid Discharge) is a must in all plants in Gujarat but in Tarapur CETP is there and hence
ZLD is not mandatory, despite this the company has setup ZLD in Tarapur as well.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 15,609 18,061 21,548 24,887 27,161 25,286 10.1

EBITDA 2,109 2,655 4,373 3,326 3,095 3,165 8.5
PAT 872 1,380 2,802 2,050 1,663 1,714 14.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 33.2 35.8 39.7 33.1 31.4 33.6 –

EBITDA margin 13.5 14.7 20.3 13.4 11.4 12.5 –

PAT margin 5.6 7.6 13.0 8.2 6.1 6.8 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 –

EPS (Rs) 9.5 15.2 30.1 22.1 18.0 18.6 14.3

BV (Rs) 57.6 70.0 98.0 111.9 128.8 138.8 19.2
RoCE (%) 16.6 20.7 33.4 20.3 15.3 14.6 –

RoA (%) 6.1 9.1 16.8 10.3 7.2 7.1 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 18.0 23.7 35.8 21.0 14.9 13.4 –

Net profit margin 5.6 7.6 13.0 8.2 6.1 6.8 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 –

15
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Action Construction Equipment

Price (Rs) 1,432
Ready to face competition
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ACEL.BO
• Action Construction Equipment (ACE) has guided 15-20% year-over-
Bloomberg code ACCE IN
year growth in the cranes, material handling, and agriproduct
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,044 segments in FY25, and 30-40% YoY growth in its construction
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8 equipment segment. It has projected FY25 revenue to grow by 15-20%
Issued shares (mn) 119 YoY, with the potential for further margin expansion. Additionally, it is
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M targeting 2x revenue growth over the next two-three years.

Absolute (6) 13 203 • The company has plans to enhance operational capabilities with

Relative (6) 13 185 modernisation and automation, upgrading offerings to meet revised
CEV IV emission norms effective from January 2025, and add new
Valuation Ratios
geographies internationally to expand export reach.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The new emission norms are expected to impact at least 50% of the
EPS (Rs) 8.8 14.5 27.6 company’s portfolio. There could be some drop in the volumes as
+/- (%) 31.6 64.8 89.7 well.

PER (x) 160.0 97.1 51.2 • Further, it is focusing on increasing market share and bettering
margin profile.
PBV (x) 22.3 18.3 13.6
• Defence segment expected to play a crucial role in revenue
EV/Sales (x) 10.3 7.7 5.6
generation and growth in the upcoming year.
EV/EBITDA (x) 110.4 74.9 40.5 • The company is developing new products with specialised
Major Shareholders (%) equipment under the government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make

Promoters 67
in India initiatives. This will contribute more than 5% to their revenues
FPIs 9 in long-term growth.
BFSI’s 2 • The company is working on new models of cranes, reach stacker,
Public & Others 22 backhoe loaders, and telehandler for future launches. Further, its
electric crane is ready for sale and deliveries of aerial work platforms
Relative Performance
are expected to commence in the month of June.
2,000
• The company is exploring various business combination options in the
1,500
crane segment. Further, it is working on expanding its product portfolio
1,000
with reach stackers and rough terrain cranes. It is also developing
500 special models for export markets for backhoe and telehandlers.
0 • ACE is also developing ultra-lightweight combines for the agriculture
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

segment.
• The company hinted that they are planning to acquire a small
Action Construction Equipment
Sensex (rebased)
company with a good product outside the country. They are looking
to move some of the specific export products through that company
apart from their own product which they manufacture in their
assembly.

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

16
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 13,425 11,562 12,272 16,296 21,597 29,138 16.8

EBITDA 978 916 1,190 1,515 2,209 4,033 32.8

PAT 560 525 798 1,050 1,730 3,282 42.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 27.0 31.3 21.6 28.1 28.9 30.6 –

EBITDA margin 7.3 7.9 9.7 9.3 10.2 13.8 –

PAT margin 4.2 4.5 6.5 6.4 8.0 11.3 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 4.7 4.4 6.7 8.8 14.5 27.6 42.4

BV (Rs) 36.8 37.2 44.0 63.3 77.3 103.4 23.0

RoCE (%) 38.3 16.0 21.3 21.0 28.0 41.7 –

RoA (%) 21.6 9.0 12.0 12.6 16.9 24.3 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 25.6 11.9 16.5 16.4 20.7 30.5 –

Net profit margin 4.2 4.5 6.5 6.4 8.0 11.3 –

Asset turnover (x) 3.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 –

17
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management

Price (Rs) 523 Company
BSE Sensex 73,961
Holistic focus on growing mutual funds and alternates business
Reuters code ADIE.BO
Key highlights
Bloomberg code ABSLAMC IN
• The company is targeting to grow at rates similar equivalent or higher
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,804
than the industry, with the focus on improving the share of equity
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1 assets and higher yielding debt assets (the company aspires to
Issued shares (mn) 288 achieve Equity AUM mix of 50-55%).
Target price (Rs) 631 • Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSLAMC) focus
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M is also on growing the AIF business. It aspires to achieve 25% of the
Absolute (4) (1) 47 contribution coming from the AIF segment (currently at 10%) in the next
Relative (4) (1) 28 five years. The passive book is also developing well.

Valuation Ratios • The company is planning to launch a new fund on the AIF side with a
slightly higher yield. Advisory on a bigger international fund will have
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
35-40 bps. Passive side yields will be 13-15 bps.
EPS 27.1 30.3 31.3
• Improvement in yields is expected on the base of increasing better
P/E 19.3 17.3 16.7 debt assets (targeting 30 bps debt assets) and growing AIF and PMS.
BVPS 110.0 125.2 140.8 • A team has been developed internally, to build and develop the sales
and distribution (focusing on HNI’s).
P/B 4.7 4.2 3.7
• The company’s physical presence has expanded, with 200 branches
Major Shareholders (%)
and 80 locations ready to be converted as branches.
Promoters 75
FPIs 4
MFs 7
BFSI’s 5
Public & Others 8

Relative Performance
750
800
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
200
250
Oct-22
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Apr-22

Dec-22
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
Jun-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Aditya Birla
Aditya Sun
Birla LifeLife
Sun AMC
Sensex
Asset(rebased)
Management Co

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

18
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Revenue from operations 13,268 11,597 10,679 12,930 12,266 13,532 15,370 16,968 4 12

Other Income 805 751 1,379 1,156 1,271 2,874 3,122 2,490 40 (7)

Total Income 14,073 12,348 12,058 14,085 13,537 16,406 18,492 19,458 7 9

Employee benefits 2,775 2,420 2,407 2,587 2,772 3,208 3,432 3,672 7 7

Other Expenses 3,081 2,204 1,848 1,949 2,215 2,364 2,622 2,885 2 10

Total Expenses 7,615 5,740 5,156 5,138 5,598 6,324 6,874 7,431 2 8

Operating profit 6,782 6,973 7,332 9,352 8,321 10,484 12,013 12,430 11 9

PAT 4,468 4,945 5,206 6,728 5,964 7,804 8,713 9,021 12 8

Shareholder’s funds 12,206 13,169 17,046 21,965 25,170 31,689 36,045 40,556 25 13

AAUM (Rs bn) 2,653 2,641 2,556 3,038 2,909 3,243 3,701 4,111 5 13

As % of AUM (bps)

Revenue from operations 50.0 43.9 41.8 42.6 42.2 41.7 41.5 41.3 – –

Employee Benefit Exp. 10.5 9.2 9.4 8.5 9.5 9.9 9.3 8.9 – –

Other Expenses 11.6 8.3 7.2 6.4 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.0 – –

PAT 16.8 18.7 20.4 22.1 20.5 24.1 23.5 21.9 – –

Core PAT 16.0 16.6 16.2 19.2 17.2 16.7 17.2 17.4 – –

Ratio (x)

EPS (Rs) 21.3 23.4 24.8 23.4 20.7 27.1 30.3 31.3 4 8

P/E 25.1 22.8 21.5 22.6 25.5 19.3 17.3 16.7 – –

BVPS (Rs) 58.1 62.4 80.4 76.3 87.4 110.0 125.2 140.8 15 13

P/B 9.2 8.6 6.6 6.9 6.0 4.7 4.2 3.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company -
4QFY24 Result Update - 27 Apr 24.pdf

19
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Aeroflex Industries

Price (Rs) 135
Capex to drive profitability
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code AERO.BO
• Despite the geopolitical tensions that is ongoing in the Middle East,
Bloomberg code AEROFLEX IN
which is affecting especially the shipping routes and the export
Market cap. (US$ mn) 209 markets, the company is witnessing sustained strong demand for its
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1 products across both the traditional and emerging industries.
Issued shares (mn) 129 • Aeroflex Industries looks towards expanding its footprints in the new-
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M age industries such as solar, robotics, semi-conductors, EV, and the
Absolute (10) (7) 0 aerospace industry.

Relative (10) (7) (18) • The company successfully concluded the expansion of 1 mn meters,
bringing total capacity to 13.5 mn meters per annum. This will
Valuation Ratios
further increase to 16.5 mn meters per annum in Phase 2 of capacity
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
expansion by December.
EPS (Rs) 2.3 3.2 3.7
• It has been focusing on increasing market presence in North America
+/- (%) 187.5 36.1 14.9 and expanding market share in the Middle East.

PER (x) 58.3 42.8 37.3 • It is confident in leveraging expertise to capitalise on emerging
opportunities and drive sustainable growth.
PBV (x) 18.0 13.6 5.3
• The company is expecting margins to grow upwards of 25% in the
EV/Sales (x) 6.6 5.9 4.6
coming years. Plans to increase welding stations from 21 to 29 over
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.0 30.1 23.4 the next few years.
Major Shareholders (%) • Aeroflex recently acquired a company named Hyd Air Engineering
Promoters 67 Pvt. Ltd. for Rs 172 mn which will help company provide end-to-end
MFs 4 solutions from hose and fittings to complete assemblies.
BFSI’s 2 • With this strategic move, it will expand its presence in key sectors
Public & Others 27 such as railways, shipbuilding, and heavy industries, etc. to get into
Relative Performance distinguished client base.
200 • The company is facing competition from the European and American
180 manufacturers as the components that the company manufactures
160 are used at very critical junctions in the manufacturing plants.
140
120
100
Oct-23

Nov-23
Aug-23

Feb-24

Mar-24

May-24
Dec-23

Aeroflex Industries
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

20
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 1,404 1,443 1,447 2,408 2,695 3,179 17.8

EBITDA 233 218 223 467 529 618 21.5

PAT 71 119 93 267 363 417 42.6

Margin (%)

Gross margin 35.0 34.3 35.4 35.2 36.6 36.6 –

EBITDA margin 16.6 15.1 15.4 19.4 19.6 19.4 –

PAT margin 5.0 8.2 6.4 11.1 13.5 13.1 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 0.6 1.0 0.8 2.3 3.2 3.7 42.6

BV (Rs) 4.2 4.6 5.1 7.5 10.0 25.6 43.8

RoCE (%) 31.2 15.3 16.2 35.7 33.3 26.1 –

RoA (%) 25.2 11.9 11.7 24.7 24.0 20.2 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 29.7 23.6 16.6 36.8 36.2 20.5 –

Net profit margin 5.0 8.2 6.4 11.1 13.5 13.1 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 –

Leverage factor (x) 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.4 –

21
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Affle (India)

Price (Rs) 1,137
Stellar turnaround
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code AFFL.BO
• Affle (India) dealt with multiple headwinds over the last year in
Bloomberg code AFFLE IN
developed markets and managed to deliver a timely turnaround in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,911 these markets.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4 • The company has worked to integrate all tech platforms, including
Issued shares (mn) 140 YouAppi and other acquirees. They have started realising synergies
Target price (Rs) 1,474 from the same. The management believes their strategic moat is
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M stronger than ever before. Investments in new use cases has led to

Absolute 2 2 19 enhanced product capabilities.

Relative 1 2 0 • The company expects to deliver 20% growth going forward. Focus
shall be on growth that comes with high margins as well as positive
Valuation Ratios
cash flows. Profitability could see improvements too. Certain spends
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
like employee costs are not expected to rise in line with revenues. This
EPS (Rs) 21.2 26.2 32.4 could thus translate into margin expansion.

+/- (%) 2.8 23.5 23.6 • Affle never really faced major issues in the emerging markets. They
are emphasising on selling more integrated products, which is
PER (x) 53.5 43.4 35.1
leading to upselling and cross selling. There is consistent growth
PBV (x) 6.4 5.6 4.8
being witnessed in emerging markets.
EV/Sales (x) 8.1 6.6 5.2 • The Indian market is seeing broad based growth. Geography is
EV/EBITDA (x) 41.4 33.1 24.9 not dependent on gaming heavily. Moreover, there are several
advantages of having operations in India. The company aims to
Major Shareholders (%)
replicate these efficiencies in other emerging markets.
Promoters 57
• Gen-AI is a key emerging area. Affle has implemented Gen-AI
FPIs 15
MFs 11
powered use cases on their consumer facing platforms. Products
BFSI’s 4 like multilingual keyboards have augured well for clients. Gen-AI is
Public & Others 14 also helping in innovation and improved efficiency. This is leading to
better RoIs for advertisers.
Relative Performance
• The management’s focus has strengthened further on the CPCU
1,700
business. This is what differentiates the company. The company has
1,500
decided to push the pedal hard on CPCU starting CY24. This helps
1,300
them move up the value chain.
1,100
900
700
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Affle India
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

22
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 2,494 3,338 5,168 10,817 14,339 18,428 22,294 27,392 49.2 21.9
EBITDA 703 879 1,300 2,131 2,888 3,600 4,430 5,739 38.6 26.3
PAT 485 710 1,296 2,267 2,893 2,973 3,670 4,536 43.7 23.5
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 28.2 26.3 25.2 19.7 20.1 19.5 19.9 21.0 – –

PAT margin 19.4 21.3 25.1 21.0 20.2 16.1 16.5 16.6 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.2) 0.4 (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) – –

EPS (Rs) 3.5 5.1 9.2 16.2 20.6 21.2 26.2 32.4 – –

BV (Rs) 5.2 16.3 25.6 84.0 104.5 178.2 204.4 236.8 – –

RoCE (%) 105.6 41.2 33.9 24.7 18.8 15.7 15.1 16.4 – –

RoA (%) 51.7 28.8 26.3 19.6 15.3 13.1 12.8 14.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 94.3 47.1 44.1 29.5 21.9 15.0 13.7 14.7 – –

Net profit margin 19.4 21.3 25.1 21.0 20.2 16.1 16.5 16.6 – –

Asset turnover (x) 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Affle (India) - 4QFY24 Result Update - 25 May 24.pdf

23
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Ajanta Pharma

Price (Rs) 2,333
Cost saving initiatives to improve margins
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code AJPH.BO
• Guidance
Bloomberg code AJP IN
o EBITDA margin at 28% for FY25.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,521
o EBITDA margin in the next two-three years to reach around 30%.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.9
o The company will incur capex of Rs 1.2-1.5 bn for the next two-three
Issued shares (mn) 126
years.
Target price (Rs) 2,550
o ETR of 24-25%.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
o R&D expenses to be 5% of sales, mainly for BGx and US.
Absolute 5 6 80
• Domestic business
Relative 5 5 62
o Only looking for brands in India for M&A, but not finding good deals
Valuation Ratios
currently due to high valuations (Torrent-Curatio deal valued at
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E ~9x sales).
Adj. EPS (Rs) 61.8 73.6 85.5 o Competition in trade generics is impacting the branded generic
Growth 34.7 19.0 16.1 players. Ajanta is a substantial player in Cardio and Diabetes, it will
be difficult for the company to outperform the market because a
PER 39.2 32.9 28.4
lot of competition has entered and hence the growth will not be
Price/Book 7.6 6.3 5.2 very high.
Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 o Trade generics is contributing Rs 1.6 bn (10-12% of India revenue).
EV/Sales 7.3 6.2 5.3 o The growth in the India business will be driven by newer therapies
(organically or inorganically – the company will announce soon).
EV/EBITDA 26.6 21.5 18.1
o MR level is currently at 3,000. PCPM has increased in the last four
Major Shareholders (%)
to five years. The majority of revenue growth has been driven by
Promoters 66
increased productivity. When comparing therapy-wise PCPM,
FPIs 9
therapies like Ophthalmology have a competitive PCPM for Ajanta
MFs 15
and the top players. However, overall, the larger players’ PCPM is
BFSI’s 3
much higher because they have certain legacy products and large
Public & Others 8
OTC products in their portfolio, which do not require significant MR
Relative Performance strength (e.g., Shelcal, Unienzyme); hence, the PCPM automatically
2,800 increases. Ajanta is not looking at acute or OTC products in the
2,300 near-term.
1,800 o Ajanta’s PCPM is lower in therapies like Pain as the company is not

1,300
present in all molecules.

800
• Asian and African geographies
o Asian and African markets are becoming more stringent in giving
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

product approvals, plant inspections are necessary, agencies are

Ajanta Pharma looking for USFDA approved facilities to supply products in African
Sensex (rebased)
countries.
Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta
Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

24
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o Competition is increasing despite Ajanta being in the top 3 in RoW countries like Iraq, Franco Africa,
the Philippines. These countries are growing at 5-8% majorly driven by volume and product launches.
o No plans to enter South Africa as it is mainly tender and hospital market.
o It is present in all other English-speaking African countries. It has its own field force and is increasing
both the field force and registrations. Central Asian countries will pick-up pace.
• US geography
o US market was very good for the last 12 months and is expected to continue.
o Top 3 distributors having 75-80% market share have become more sensible as they are discussing
with suppliers and have started entering into long-term contract of 24-30 months also, this will lead
to reduction in cyclicality.
o The product shortages in the US were mainly because the supply deadline was not met, or the facilities
were not approved. Distributors are now considering multiple such factors before finalising contracts.
o The shortages in the US persist but in certain molecules, in FY24, the company had certain benefits
of these shortages.
o Chantix is preparing for launch in 1QFY25 (approval received in 4Q).
• Other comments
o API pricing – the benefits of API pricing have been realised, and currently the prices are around pre-
Covid levels. Prices are expected to remain stable in the near-term.
o Ajanta has 2 facilities approved by USFDA recently – cleared with zero observations.
o Red Sea crisis has led to increase in inventory days, receivable days and freight cost.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 20,141 25,585 28,452 32,841 37,075 41,196 46,905 53,162 15.4 13.6
EBITDA 5,664 6,833 9,986 9,293 7,833 11,249 13,502 15,653 14.7 18.0
PAT 3,870 4,677 6,539 7,127 5,880 7,946 9,455 10,982 15.5 17.6
Margin (%)
Gross margin 81.0 74.4 77.3 74.7 71.7 75.6 75.0 74.8 – –
EBITDA margin 28.1 26.7 35.1 28.3 21.1 27.3 28.8 29.4 – –
PAT margin 19.2 18.3 23.0 21.7 15.9 19.3 20.2 20.7 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) – –
EPS (Rs) 44.1 53.3 51.0 55.6 45.9 61.8 73.6 85.5 7.0 17.6
BV (Rs) 256.0 296.3 233.9 254.8 264.5 318.5 385.1 463.6 4.5 20.6
RoCE (%) 23.1 26.6 30.9 28.1 21.6 28.1 27.8 26.8 – –
RoA (%) 20.0 22.6 25.6 23.5 17.2 21.4 21.4 20.9 – –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 18.1 19.3 23.4 22.8 17.7 21.2 20.9 20.1 – –
Net profit margin 19.2 18.3 23.0 21.7 15.9 19.3 20.2 20.7 – –
Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Ajanta Pharma - 4QFY24 Result Update - 03 May 24.pdf

25
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Allcargo Logistics

Price (Rs) 67
Focus on yield improvements, de-stocking cycle has bottomed
BSE Sensex 73,961 out...
Reuters code ACLL.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code AGLL IN • There are indications that the global supply chain industry will
Market cap. (US$ mn) 790 expand in the second half of 2024.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.4 • Despite the addition of 1 mn TEUs to the capacity of container shipping
Issued shares (mn) 983 this year, freight rates are still rising.
Target price (Rs) 81 • Warehousing capacities in key countries are going down and
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M inventory re-stocking is happening on the back of actual consumer
Absolute (8) (21) 1 demand going up and in anticipation of demand recovery.

Relative (9) (22) (17) • In Gati, the company is targeting to reduce direct costs by at least
5% this year (assuming yields at current levels). The company also
Valuation Ratios
expects yields to improve. Shift from less-than-truckload (LTL) to
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
express is being witnessed among customers.
EPS (Rs) (0.1) 2.1 3.3 • ECU Worldwide had a flat quarter compared to the previous quarter
Change (%) – – 58.5 and management expects momentum to start building from April
leading to the improvements in 2Q and 3QFY25.
PER (x) – 32.2 20.3
• Container utilisation has been range-bound over the last one year
PBV (x) 2.6 2.5 2.3
and it is expected to improve once volumes increase on key trade
Div./Yield (%) 1.5 1.6 1.8 lanes.
EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 • Express business has seen significant improvement on the back of
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.4 11.0 8.6 cost reduction, which has on a monthly basis until March, providing
healthy exit rates on operating costs.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The focus remains strong on technology projects and GEMS 2.0 is
Promoters 70
progressing as per schedule in Gati, and various system roll outs are
FPIs 11
on schedule in ECU Worldwide including new financial ERP.
MFs 2
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 16

Relative Performance
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Allcargo Logistics
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

26
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 68,949 73,462 104,981 190,621 180,508 131,878 131,742 134,706 13.8 1.1
EBITDA 4,485 5,034 6,338 12,679 11,295 4,670 7,374 9,181 0.8 40.2
PAT 2,420 1,683 2,783 7,591 5,924 (66) 2,045 3,241 n/a n/a
Margin (%)

Gross margin 27.8 27.1 23.4 18.2 20.7 23.5 24.6 24.8 – –
EBITDA margin 6.5 6.9 6.0 6.7 6.3 3.5 5.6 6.8 – –
PAT margin 3.5 2.3 2.7 4.0 3.3 (0.0) 1.6 2.4 – –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 – –
EPS (Rs) 2.5 1.7 2.8 7.7 6.0 (0.1) 2.1 3.3 n/a n/a
BV (Rs) 20.3 21.8 23.2 32.2 28.6 25.7 26.6 28.7 4.8 5.8
RoCE (%) 12.2 9.2 8.3 18.3 16.0 2.9 8.2 11.3 – –
RoA (%) 8.9 6.8 6.0 12.3 10.7 2.0 5.5 7.7 – –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 12.2 8.1 12.6 27.9 19.8 (0.2) 8.0 11.9 – –

Net profit margin 3.5 2.3 2.7 4.0 3.3 (0.0) 1.6 2.4 – –
Asset turnover (x) 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 – –

27
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Angel One

Price (Rs) 2,467
Diversifying growth avenues
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ANGB.BO
• 50%+ clients acquired by Angel One in FY21 have transacted on the
Bloomberg code ANGELONE IN
platform till FY24 with cash exclusive clients significantly higher than
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,663 F&O exclusive clients.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 19.8 • 0.6 mn clients have transacted both in cash and F&O since FY21 and
Issued shares (mn) 90 currently hold an equity portfolio of Rs 66 bn (including Rs 24 bn of
Target price (Rs) 3,518 unrealised gain) and realised gain of Rs 7.4 bn.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Currently, the management does not feel the need to charge for cash
Absolute (11) (11) 83 delivery due to consistent 45%+ operating margin trajectory, despite
Relative (12) (12) 65 continuous investments in the business.
• Distribution of lending products will commence in the next few
Valuation Ratios
quarters with the company not taking any risk on the balance sheet.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
The company is also in talks with insurance manufacturers to distribute
EPS 134.0 166.7 191.6 digitally enabled products.
P/E 18.4 14.8 12.9 • Asset management is a long gestation business and will take four-six
BVPS 361.7 621.7 758.3 years to break-even but annual costs would not be significant due to
passive nature.
P/B 6.8 4.0 3.3
• Wealth management business will be launched by 3QFY25 and will
Major Shareholders (%)
take six-eight quarters to break-even. The company will start with the
Promoters 38 ticket size of Rs 5-30 mn.
FPIs 17
• Currently, Angel One is second only to Groww with respect to
MFs 7
client acquisition, as per the management. Entry of larger players/
BFSI’s 3
conglomerates will lead to market expansion and client acquisition
Public & Others 35
opportunity for the company.
Relative Performance
5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Angel One
Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Kartikeya Mohata

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com kartikeya.mohata@bksec.com

28
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Interest Income - 1,577 1,769 3,328 5,195 7,859 10,686 12,371 49.4 25.5
Fees and Commission Income - 5,644 10,778 18,961 24,760 34,792 49,968 57,106 57.6 28.1
Total Income 7,622 7,547 12,989 23,051 30,211 42,798 60,805 69,628 54.3 27.6
Operating Profit 1,336 1,397 4,295 8,555 12,221 15,637 20,788 23,880 82.9 23.6
PAT 786 823 2,968 6,249 8,902 11,256 14,984 17,224 92.3 23.7
Revenue mix (%)
Gross Broking - 67 70 68 69 68 68 67 - -
Interest - 23 15 16 17 18 18 18 - -
Depository - 5 7 5 3 4 4 5 - -
Ancillary Transaction Revenue - 1 4 7 9 8 8 8 - -
Distribution - 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - -
Other - 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 - -
Client metrics (‘000)
Gross client addition 261 561 2364 5286 4716 8787 12034 12932 98.9 21.3
Profitability Ratios (%)
Operating Margin - 29.5 48.4 51.8 53.5 47.0 45.0 46.0 – –
PAT Margin 10.3 10.9 22.9 27.1 29.5 26.3 24.6 24.7 – –
ROE 15.6 15.0 34.9 46.0 47.5 43.3 34.7 27.8 – –
Valuation Ratios (x)
EPS 10.9 11.4 36.3 75.4 106.7 134.0 166.7 191.6 – –
P/E – – 74.9 36.0 25.5 18.4 14.8 12.9 – –
BVPS – – 138 191.2 259.1 361.7 621.7 758.3 – –
P/B – – 20 14.2 10.5 6.8 4.0 3.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Angel One - 4QFY24 Result Update - 18 Apr 24.pdf

29
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Apcotex Industries

Price (Rs) 403
Recovery expected in the next 9-12 months
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code APCI.BO
• Apcotex Industries foresees revenues of Rs 18.0-20.0 bn and margins
Bloomberg code APCO IN
of 12-14% in the next three-five years.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 250
• The management believes that EBITDA margins between 12-14% are
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.3 sustainable.
Issued shares (mn) 52 • The next leg of growth will be driven by exports as the share of exports
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M is expected to go up from 30% to 50% over three-five years.
Absolute (11) (13) (19) • The management expects to incur a capex of Rs 200-350 mn in FY25,
Relative (11) (13) (38) which also includes maintenance capex.
Valuation Ratios • Management expects peak nitrile latex revenues of Rs 3-3.5 bn from
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 existing capacities and Rs 2.5 bn from the additional 35,000 tonnes.
• Current capacity utilisations: NBR – 100%, Synthetic Latex at Taloja –
EPS (Rs) 19.1 20.8 10.4
~45%, Nitrile Rubber at Valia – ~100% and Styrene Rubber at Taloja – 50-
+/- (%) 123.8 9.2 -50.1
60%.
PER 21.3 19.5 39.0 • Management remains optimistic about recovery in the coming 9 -12
Price/Book (x) 5.3 4.4 4.0 months.

EV/Sales (x) 2.2 2.1 2.0 • Apcotex along with other companies are in talks to file for anti-
dumping duties on NBR.
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 14.1 19.8
• The company is open towards inorganic growth plans and aims for
Major Shareholders (%)
such growth from high styrene rubber.
Promoters 58
• Longer export receivables have impacted the working capital cycle
BFSI’s 1
lately.
Public & Others 41

Relative Performance
800
700
600
500
400
300
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Apcotex Industries
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

30
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 6,231 4,915 5,406 9,569 10,799 11,246 12.5

EBITDA 676 335 699 1,398 1,585 1,139 11.0

PAT 466 167 442 988 1,079 539 2.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 29.3 30.3 37.2 34.8 34.4 30.9 –

EBITDA margin 10.8 6.7 12.9 14.6 14.7 10.1 –

PAT margin 7.4 3.4 8.2 10.3 10.0 4.8 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 0.3 0.3 –

EPS (Rs) 9.0 3.2 8.5 19.1 20.8 10.4 2.9

BV (Rs) 53.6 48.5 58.9 76.4 91.8 100.6 13.4

RoCE (%) 22.7 8.8 18.9 33.5 27.0 13.0 –

RoA (%) 17.6 6.7 14.3 25.3 21.4 10.4 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.8 6.3 15.9 28.2 24.8 10.8 –

Net profit margin 7.5 3.4 8.2 10.3 10.0 4.8 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 –

31
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data APL Apollo Tubes

Price (Rs) 1,505
Subdued industry demand impacts volumes, fast ramp-up of
BSE Sensex 73,961 new capacities on cards…
Reuters code APLA.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code APAT IN • In FY24, APL Apollo Tubes (APAT) fell short of guidance by 13%, primarily
Market cap. (US$ mn) 5,006 because of slowdown in consumption activity impacting ~100k MT of
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 17.5 volumes, late ramp-up of Raipur and Dubai plants impacting ~100k MT
Issued shares (mn) 278 of volumes, and subdued 3Q. Despite being short on guidance, overall
performance was still strong with 15% volume growth, 17% EBITDA
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
growth and 14% PAT growth.
Absolute (3) (3) 33
• Operating cash flow to EBITDA has been upwards of 90% throughout,
Relative (3) (3) 14
indicating good cash flow generation.
Valuation Ratios
• The company targets return on capital to increase to 35-38%.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• APAT is confident in achieving EBITDA/tonne of Rs 5,500/tonne when the
EPS (Rs.) 22.3 23.1 26.4 company’s volumes cross 5 million tonnes. The company also targets
Change (%) 51.8 3.7 14.1 EBITDA margin of Rs 10,000/tonne and 10 million tonne capacity.

PER (x) 66.9 64.6 56.6 • The company expects fast ramping up of Raipur and Dubai plant.
In Dubai plant, the company expects 150k production volume (50%
PBV (x) 16.8 13.8 11.5
utilisation) in FY25E and at Raipur plant, it is expected to ramp-up to
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 70-75% from current 55%.
EV/Sales (x) 3.2 2.6 2.3 • Current value add mix is 60% for FY24. APAT plans to take it to 70-75%
EV/EBITDA (x) 44.0 41.1 35.4 when the company reaches the 5 million tonne mark.
• Gap between secondary and HR coil was Rs 15/kg at one time but it is
Major Shareholders (%)
now down to Rs 7/kg indicating a transition taking place. The company
Promoters 29
expects HR Coil market to expand rapidly.
FPIs 31
MFs 9 • APAT commands a premium of at least 4-5% over competition for its
BFSI’s 5 products.
Public & Others 26 • The future capex for remaining capacity to reach 5 million tonne is
Nil. The company will spend ~Rs 5.0 bn which will be funded through
Relative Performance
deleveraging of non-core assets resulting in net cash flow to be nil. For
1,900
1,700 the next phase of additional 5 million tonne, capex of Rs 25.0-30 bn will
1,500 be spent.
1,300
• Solar torque tubes have become an important element in solar
1,100
industry. The world is moving towards tracking solar systems. Tracking
900
700 solar system needs to be built only on a tubular structure. APAT is
working with all the large solar power producers to develop their
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

tracking structures with the help of its tubes.

APL Apollo Tubes
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla Aryan Sharma

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com aryan.sharma@bksec.com

32
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)

(FY19-24)
Financials
Sales 71,523 77,232 84,998 130,633 161,660 181,188 20.4
EBITDA 3,928 4,773 6,787 9,453 10,216 11,922 24.9
PAT 1,482 2,560 4,077 6,190 6,419 7,324 37.6
Margin (%)
Gross margin 11.8 14.9 15.7 14.1 13.3 13.8 –
EBITDA margin 5.5 6.2 8.0 7.2 6.3 6.6 –
PAT margin 2.1 3.3 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.0 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 –
EPS (Rs) 5.3 9.2 14.7 22.3 23.1 26.4 37.6
BV (Rs) 34.7 48.9 61.1 88.8 108.3 129.9 30.2
RoCE (%) 36.7 19.1 24.9 30.2 25.2 23.8 –
RoA (%) 24.5 13.4 18.4 22.3 18.1 16.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 30.8 20.4 26.7 29.8 23.5 22.2 –
Net profit margin 2.1 3.3 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.0 –
Asset turnover (x) 5.2 2.6 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 –

33
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Apollo Pipes

Price (Rs) 660
On expansion mode...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code AOLL.BO
• During FY19-24, the company delivered volume growth at a CAGR
Bloomberg code APOLP IN
of 15%, whereas revenue grew at a CAGR of 22% during that period.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 327 The company has guided sales growth at a CAGR of 25% over the
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.9 next three to four years, driven by increased organic and inorganic
Issued shares (mn) 41 capacity, entry into newer markets and positive demand outlook.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Apollo Pipes is actively working to strengthen its presence in
Absolute 1 (6) 6 domestic markets and playing a crucial role in enhancing its Pan-

Relative 1 (6) (12) India footprint, with its recent greenfield expansion plan in Varanasi,
brownfield expansion plan of Dadri facility and acquisition of
Valuation Ratios
Kisan Mouldings. This expansion is set to significantly increase the
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 company’s production capacity, enabling it to sustain robust volume
EPS (Rs) 12.7 6.1 10.8 growth on a sustainable basis.

+/- (%) (62.7) (51.9) 77.4 • The company has gradually expanded product basket with addition
of water storage tanks and strategically entering into plastic faucet,
PER (x) 51.6 107.5 60.6
tap and shower, OPVC segment (potential to replace traditional
PBV (x) 6.3 5.6 4.5 ductile iron pipes). This would make a significant contribution to the
Div./Yield (%) 9.2 11.5 10.8 company’s revenue in the coming years.

EV/Sales (x) 3.3 2.8 2.7 • In the medium-term, it is planning to adjust its product mix towards
plumbing pipe with expansion of product portfolio as well as
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.5 37.9 27.4
expanded capacity.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The company has recently acquired old legacy brand of Kisan
Promoters 48 Moldings with a capacity of 60k tonnes and a wide dealer network
FPIs 4
alongwith a diverse product portfolio. Post modernisation and
MFs 13
efficiency improvement, the company is targeting sales of ~Rs 9 bn
BFSI’s 1
with an EBITDA margin of 10%.
Public & Others 33

Relative Performance
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Apollo Pipes
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

34
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 3,618 4,080 5,181 7,841 9,145 9,870 22.2

EBITDA 376 467 744 935 686 959 20.6
PAT 250 285 445 500 239 426 11.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 27.5 29.2 30.2 26.9 24.2 27.7 –

EBITDA margin 10.4 11.4 14.4 11.9 7.5 9.7 –
PAT margin 6.9 7.0 8.6 6.4 2.6 4.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 –

EPS (Rs) 6.7 7.3 11.3 12.7 6.1 10.8 10.2
BV (Rs) 53.7 72.8 89.4 102.6 115.8 145.3 22.0
RoCE (%) 11.5 11.9 16.0 16.6 8.9 11.0 –
RoA (%) 6.3 6.5 9.1 9.6 4.0 5.1 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 14.0 10.6 13.5 13.2 5.5 7.4 –

Net profit margin 6.9 7.0 8.6 6.4 2.6 4.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 –

35
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Arvind Fashions

Price (Rs) 439
Focus on long-term profitability...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ARVF.BO
Industry leading KPIs
Bloomberg code ARVINDFA IN
• The company has inventory turns at 4x, which is best-in-class in the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 703
industry. Working with an external consultant, a 360-degree inventory
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.9 view resulted in improved inventory fulfilment at EBOs and MBOs.
Issued shares (mn) 133 Consequently, inventory levels reduced sequentially during 4Q.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • It achieved an organic growth of 20%+ CAGR in the last three years,
Absolute (8) (4) 54 which is better than other companies.
Relative (9) (4) 35 Robust quality product offerings
Valuation Ratios • Arvind Fashions (AFL) tries to refresh inventory on a monthly level
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 maintaining a mix of art and science.
• What differentiates AFL from the fast fashion players is that the latter
EPS (Rs) (21.8) 2.8 6.5
is more focused on inventory refresh over product quality, while AFL
+/- (%) – – 136.6
remains steadfast on product quality.
PER (x) (20.3) 160.2 67.7 Pricing
PBV (x) 7.2 6.5 5.9 • Last year, while the peers did early EOSS and started discounting in the
Div./Yield (%) – 0.2 0.3 first week of June, AFL started in the first week of July.

EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.5 1.5 • Similarly, peers started EOSS in the first week of December, while AFL
started a month later from 1st January.
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.3 14.8 12.1
• However, because of the late EOSS, the company did lose on LTL growth,
Major Shareholders (%)
but it helped improve focus on profitability.
Promoters 37
• It’s tough to gauge if benefits of EOSS would be higher or lower
FPIs 16
compared to benefits of lower and late discounting.
MFs 9
• AFL is witnessing premiumisation tends across its power brands. For
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 37
instance, in US Polo – the company launched product Liquid Cotton
Polo priced at Rs 3,999. In Arrow, it launched premium collection
Relative Performance
named 1851 – Premium Collection.
550
500 • Most of these premium ranges is receiving good sales throughput.
450
Scope of margin improvement
400
350 • Arrow and Flying Machine does heavy weightlifting for margin
300
improvement. Flying Machine is 12 months behind Arrow in terms of
250
200 margin improvement.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• US Polo is working at healthy margins. The company expects operating

leverage to kick-in as its sub-categories such as innerwear and
Arvind Fashions
footwear scale-up.
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

36
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein enjoy the highest margins among all. The brands have a scope of margin
improvement only with scale-up.
Scope of expansion in accessories segment
• FY24 witnessed an accessories sale of Rs 5 bn, of which Rs 3 bn is contributed from footwear.
• The company can also give licence to manufacture and sell accessories to other brands (for e.g. Titan
sells Tommy Hilfiger watches). AFL earns royalty from such arrangements. However, it will do so if it thinks
the other brand has bandwidth and skills to expand that category.
Target to improve RoCE
• Current, RoCE is 16%; the company is targeting to take it to 20% in the next couple of years.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 46,439 36,136 19,119 30,560 40,695 42,591 (1.7)

EBITDA 2,881 2,578 (16) 1,802 4,230 5,105 12.1

PAT 166 (3,401) (5,346) (2,674) 367 868 39.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 50.7 44.9 41.5 44.1 49.2 52.2 –

EBITDA margin 6.2 7.1 (0.1) 5.9 10.4 12.0 –

PAT margin 0.4 (9.4) (28.0) (8.7) 0.9 2.0 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 –

EPS (Rs) 2.8 (43.4) (57.5) (21.8) 2.8 6.5 –

BV (Rs) 191.0 76.3 56.2 61.2 68.4 75.4 –

RoCE (Rs) 7.0 (4.2) (5.0) 0.6 12.6 13.4 –

RoA (Rs) 4.2 (2.6) (3.2) 0.4 7.8 8.6 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 1.5 (39.4) (95.5) (42.0) 4.4 9.1 –

Net profit margin 0.4 (9.4) (28.0) (8.7) 0.9 2.0 –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 –

Leverage factor (x) 3.1 4.6 7.3 5.5 4.2 3.8 –

37
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Arvind SmartSpaces

Price (Rs) 630
Playing on brand strength to foray into new markets
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ARVD.BO
• Almost all of the properties of Arvind SmartSpaces (ASL) have garnered
Bloomberg code ARVSMART IN
a strong post-launch traction that has helped the company generate
Market cap. (US$ mn) 343 progressively better realisations.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.1 • It targets 30-35% YoY growth in key operational parameters viz.
Issued shares (mn) 45 bookings, business development (BD), etc. It aims to maintain a
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M judicious mix of horizontal and vertical projects in the portfolio with
Absolute (15) 2 92 33-50% share of the latter.

Relative (15) 2 73 • In FY24, ASL added four new projects in Ahmedabad and one each in
Bengaluru and Surat with an expected topline of ~Rs 41.5 bn and the
Valuation Ratios
company looks to sustain this momentum in FY25.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24P
• The company is looking to sustain the new project addition momentum
EPS (Rs) 5.5 5.7 9.2
in the coming years as well as to some extent re-pivot towards the
+/- (%) 186.5 2.2 62.3 development of apartment projects.

PER (x) 114.7 112.2 69.1 • Historically, it has developed both horizontal and vertical projects and
will maintain a balance between the two going forward.
PBV (x) 6.4 6.2 5.8
• In case there are any outsized opportunities for business development,
Div./Yield (%) 0.0 0.5 0.5
the company is in comfortable position to leverage the balance sheet
EV/Sales (x) 10.7 11.2 8.2 to acquire projects with an intent to deepen presence in Gujarat,
EV/EBITDA (x) 56.0 58.7 25.2 Bengaluru and Maharashtra.

Major Shareholders (%) • In FY24, it had 4 new launches, whereas in FY25, it is looking to do
minimum 6-8 new launches, which includes phases, new phases of
Promoters 50
the existing projects and all new projects in the pipeline.
MFs 3
BFSI’s 11 • In the HDFC platform. Out of Rs 9 bn, it has deployed ~Rs 3 bn and the
Public & Others 36 balance funds would be deployed in FY25.

Relative Performance • Overall, ASL has Rs 10-12 bn to be deployed (H-CARE, internal accruals

800
and debt raise) towards business development which would lead
700 to 30-35% growth in BD in FY25. It would likely add projects with
600
development potential of Rs 50-53 bn in FY25.
500
400 • The Surat project will be launched in phases given the size and 30-40%
300
200 of the inventory would be launched in 2Q/3QFY25.
100
• On an average basis, EBITDA margin for the company (blended) is 25-
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

26% but a horizontal project typically has 30-35% margin profile.

• ASL has a lock-in period of 2-2.5 years at the time of launch, especially
Arvind SmartSpaces
Sensex (rebased) in a horizontal project. Thereafter, resales start happening.
• The company’s referral sale is for FY24 was 22% and it is seeing repeat
investments coming from existing customers across the projects.

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

38
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 2,621 2,995 1,493 2,568 2,559 3,412 5.4

EBITDA 679 886 406 484 489 1,115 10.4
PAT 307 393 88 251 250 416 6.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 50.5 52.0 63.1 51.2 50.9 73.1 –

EBITDA margin 25.9 29.6 27.2 18.8 19.1 32.7 –

PAT margin 11.7 13.1 5.9 9.8 9.8 12.2 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.5 0.4 (0.3) (0.0) (0.1) –

EPS (Rs) 6.8 8.7 1.9 5.5 5.7 9.2 6.3

BV (Rs) 56.2 63.8 68.7 98.5 103.0 109.2 14.2
RoCE (%) 17.7 22.1 8.2 10.5 9.3 16.8 –

RoA (%) 10.1 11.4 4.8 5.4 4.0 6.5 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 11.2 14.5 2.9 6.7 5.7 8.7 –

Net profit margin 11.7 13.1 5.9 9.8 10.0 12.2 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.8 –

39
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Ashok Leyland

Price (Rs) 224
Focus on achieving mid teen margins and improved profitability
BSE Sensex 73,961 remains key focus
Reuters code ASOK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code AL IN • Outlook: Despite the uncertainty on MHCV cycle sustaining in FY25,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 7,884 considering the management focus on improving the mix (tractor
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 40.5 trailers and higher tonnage multi axle vehicles) with better price
Issued shares (mn) 2,936 realisation, cost control initiatives and market share gains on the
back of new launches in LCV space, we expect a double-digit growth
Target price (Rs) 200
on topline and margins of 12% in FY25 (11.7% in FY24).
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• Volumes: Management indicated on strong demand for traditional
Absolute 16 32 53
ICE segments, especially in trucks and buses. Tractor trailer volume
Relative 16 32 35
is gaining market share from the multi-axle segment, and there is
Valuation Ratios significant growth in the school bus segment.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Business mix: The business mix includes 60% domestic trucks, 10%
EPS (Rs) 9.2 11.1 12.5 buses, 11% LCVs, 8-9% in other segments and balance 10% in spare parts.

+/- (%) 20.1 20.6 12.0 • EBITDA margins: Ashok Leyland (AL) expects to maintain EBITDA
margins in the mid-term through cost reduction strategies, volume
PER (x) 24.4 13.7 15.2
increases, and stable steel commodity prices. AL undertook prices
PBV (x) 7.0 40.9 50.8 increase of 1.5% in the MHCV segment and 3% in the LCV segment,
Div./Yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 contributing to margin improvement. Spare parts, defence, and power
solutions are identified as high-margin segments, with profitable
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.5 1.3
orders from both private and government sectors.
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.1 12.1 10.6
• Distribution network expansion: In the next two-three years,
Major Shareholders (%) management plans to expand distribution network from 250 to 750
Promoters 51 outlets, eventually reaching 1,500 outlets in the long run.
FPIs 22 • Exports: Management expects exports to grow by 5% in FY24; with
MFs 6
strong presence in Sri Lanka, Middle East, Africa and Bangladesh. The
BFSI’s 6
company is the only manufacturer reporting positive export growth in
Public & Others 15
FY24 with overall industry decline.
Relative Performance • Switch Mobility business: Domestic Switch Mobility business has
240 become EBITDA positive, with near-term funding from AL to continue.
220
200 UK Switch Mobility operations face minor losses but have a healthy
180 order book. The company sold 1,000 vehicles for Switch Mobility in FY24,
160
mainly to STUs.
140
120 • Scrappage policy: Slow progress in scrappage policies with a longer
100
time to recover. 50% of trucks are below BS IV emission norms, presenting
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

opportunities for replacement. BS IV vehicles cost 20% less than BS VI,

making freight rate increases challenging for BS VI operators.
Ashok Leyland
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

40
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 290,550 174,675 153,025 216,883 371,070 383,641 424,471 466,653 5.7 10.3

EBITDA 31,357 11,736 5,361 9,945 38,936 45,068 51,000 56,518 7.5 12.0

PAT 19,832 2,395 (3,127) 5,418 23,430 27,117 32,706 36,632 6.5 16.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 28.8 29.2 25.5 22.7 24.9 25.6 25.2 25.0 - -

EBITDA margin 10.8 6.7 3.5 4.6 10.5 11.7 12.0 12.1 - -

PAT margin 7.0 2.3 (2.0) 0.1 6.1 7.1 7.7 7.9 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) 0.3 0.4 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) - -

EPS (Rs) 6.9 1.3 (1.0) 0.1 7.7 9.2 11.1 12.5 5.9 16.2

BV (Rs) 25.1 21.3 20.3 21.5 25.7 32.3 40.9 50.8 5.2 25.3

RoCE (%) 27.5 5.9 (0.8) 2.8 26.8 31.6 32.7 31.5 - -

RoA (%) 14.7 3.6 (0.5) 1.6 15.3 19.3 19.3 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 29.8 5.8 (4.9) 0.5 32.6 31.8 30.4 27.2 - -

Net profit margin 7.0 2.3 (2.0) 0.1 6.1 7.1 7.7 7.9 - -

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 - -

Leverage factor (x) 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 - -

41
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Ashoka Buildcon

Price (Rs) 183
Asset monetisation awaited
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ABDL.BO
• Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) completed the sale of its CGD business to
Bloomberg code ASBL IN
Mahanagar Gas Limited in January 2024 for a consideration of Rs 2.9
Market cap. (US$ mn) 617 bn for its 51% stake. For its HAM portfolio consisting of 11 road assets,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.7 ASBL shall sign SPA by 1QFY25-end. For its BOT portfolio of five road
Issued shares (mn) 281 assets, ASBL is in talks with various investors and expects to complete
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M the sale in the next 12 months.

Absolute 5 (2) 143 • For Chennai ORR, the company acquired 50% stake from the partner

Relative 5 (2) 124 and is targeting monetisation of the asset by FY25-end. For the Jaora-
Nayagaon asset, NOC from stakeholders is pending post which the
Valuation Ratios
sale transaction shall take another three to four months to complete.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The sale proceeds from all these transactions will be utilised to provide
EPS (Rs) (11.0) 23.9 15.8 an exit to SBI-Macquarie with a guaranteed return of Rs 15.3 bn. Any
+/- (%) N.A N.A (34.0) balance amount will be used to repay the debt.

PER (x) (16.5) 7.6 11.5 • The company has guided for infusing Rs 1.5 bn in FY25 towards required
equity in its HAM portfolio.
PBV (x) 1.9 1.5 1.3
• The order book as of March 2024 stood at Rs 117 bn (~1.5x FY24 revenue).
EV/Sales (x) 1.2 0.9 0.8
Additionally, it has a Maldives project worth Rs 13.4 bn for which
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 11.2 10.5 financial tie-up is not yet closed, hence not included in the order book.

Major Shareholders (%) Business-wise, the order book is well-diversified with roads/power T&D/
railways/buildings constituting 46/41/7/6%. Region-wise, the maximum
Promoters 54
contribution is from west/south at 35/25%, followed by central/east/
FPIs 7
overseas at 12/11/10%. Client-wise, state/central governments constitute
MFs 16
BFSI’s 1
44/31%, with overseas/HAM/private at 10/8/7%.
Public & Others 21 • Further, the company in bullish across its business verticals and
guided for an order inflow of Rs 120-150 bn in FY25. The industry
Relative Performance
witnessed muted awarding activity from the NHAI during the entire
210
190 FY24. This phenomenon is expected to continue till early 2QFY25. The
170
150 awarding activity is expected to pick-up pace in 2HFY25 post the
130 general elections.
110
90 • Given weak order inflows for FY24 and order backlog as at March 2025,
70
50 we believe that the company’s revenue guidance of 15% YoY growth
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

sounds too optimistic.

Ashoka Buildcon
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

42
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-23)

Financials

Sales 38,206 39,374 38,175 45,915 63,723 77,267 15.1

EBITDA 5,152 5,856 5,195 5,025 5,337 5,765 2.3

PAT 3,332 3,871 4,081 (3,086) 6,713 4,428 5.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 61.0 71.0 67.0 69.0 62.0 55.4 –

EBITDA margin 13.5 14.9 13.6 10.9 8.4 7.5 –

PAT margin 8.7 9.8 10.7 (6.7) 10.5 5.7 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 –

EPS (Rs) 11.9 13.8 14.5 (11.0) 23.9 15.8 5.9

BV (Rs) 78.8 92.6 107.2 96.2 120.1 135.9 11.5

RoCE (%) 19.4 18.1 17.3 16.9 13.1 10.9 –

RoA (%) 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.6 9.0 7.4 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 16.1 16.1 14.6 (10.8) 22.1 12.3 –

Net profit margin 8.7 9.8 10.7 (6.7) 10.5 5.7 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 –

43
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Aster DM Healthcare

Price (Rs) 364
Core focus on India business post split, expansion to drive growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ATRD.BO
• Expansion strategy
Bloomberg code ASTERDM IN
o South is strong, aspires to enter Uttar Pradesh. For all future
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,179
expansions the company will enter with a cluster approach
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 10.4 always, with minimum around 2-3 hospitals.
Issued shares (mn) 500 o ARPOB is very important criteria while acquiring or setting up
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M hospital.
Absolute 5 0 75 o While entering a market, Will enter with 1. multi-specialty model,
Relative 4 0 57 2. factoring in availability of doctors, 3. ARPOB has to be similar to
Valuation Ratios other hospitals, 4. superior margin profile.

Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 o Investment in North India might be slightly expensive because
the company is not present currently in the region and entering a
EPS (Rs) 12.0 2.8 3.6
newer region would require to pay slight premium.
PER (x) 34.6 130.0 101.1
o Kasargod expansion is owned completely (excl. the land), Calicut
PBV (x) 4.6 4.1 3.8 is an owned expansion.
Div./Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 o The company is adding newer beds only in greenfield expansion
and the asset light models.
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.7 5.1
o Rs 10-12 bn capex required for 1,700 beds expansion, funded
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 12.4 14.1
through internal accruals as EBITDA for FY24 was around Rs 6 bn.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Existing Hospitals
Promoters 42
o Along with lower double digit bed growth, the ARPOB would be
FPIs 34
able to grow in double digits.
MFs 14
Public & Others 11 o CMI Bengaluru – is being ranked in the top 5 across specialties.
The company is incurring a brownfield expansion in this hospital
Relative Performance
to make it the largest hospital.
600
o Whitefield hospital was broken-even in three months with ARPOB
500
of Rs 70,000.
400
300 o Kerala cluster is largely owned by the company, Bengaluru is
200 mostly leased hospitals (with payout of around 5% of revenue).
100 o For an asset-light model, the payout of revenue (around 4-6%) is
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

higher because the investment is higher. The company focuses

on increasing the number of beds to bring in more profitability.
Aster DM Healthcare RoCEs are usually higher in an asset-light model.
Sensex (rebased)
o Narayana and Tirupati hospitals (asset light model) EBITDA margin
post IndAS adjustment is around 11-12%
o Within leased assets – Karnataka assets are growing at around

Rohit Bhat Maulik Varia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com maulik.varia@bksec.com

44
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

40%, margin at 20% (excl. Whitefield margin is around 23%).

o Ramesh hospital – Aster acquired around 58% stake for Rs 2 bn. Strategic changes are being
undertaken such as addition of newer therapies, newer doctors and efficiency of manpower. These
initiatives will lead to improved profitability, if the performance doesn’t improve in FY25, the company
would consider exiting the JV or acquiring the hospital fully.
• Other comments
o The variable expense in leased assets forms a part of the PL above the EBITDA and the fixed expenses
form part of the depreciation.
• Post demerger scenario – The management teams were largely autonomous since a long time, Dr.
Azad Moopen will be CMD in India business, Ms Alisha will overlook India business from a M&A and
Strategy perspective. The other management team was broadly dedicated to respective geographies.
Moopen family holds 42% in the Indian entity.
• Pharmacy and Labs business
o Lab and Pharmacy business was started three years ago contributing 8% to revenue.
o In the diagnostics business – The co doesn’t aim to increase processing labs, expansion may happen
in collection labs. Labs business broke even in 4QFY24. This business is driven by inhouse hospital
tests as well as external tests. Labs business is a high margin business.
o Retail Pharmacy is a low margin business. Looking for quick break-even. FY25 Will be modest business,
break even at EBITDA expected in FY26. Aster holds 16% in Retail pharmacy, remaining 84% is held by
independent business owners.
o Wholesale pharmacy has almost broken even in 4QFY24 and will make EBITDA profits in 1Q/2QFY25.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 79,627 86,519 86,084 102,533 29,941 36,989 (14.2)

EBITDA 8,871 12,689 11,027 15,331 9,217 13,457 8.7
PAT 5,088 4,569 1,475 5,251 1,596 2,047 (16.7)
Margin (%)

Gross margin 57.7 57.7 55.4 56.2 55.7 53.0 –

EBITDA margin 11.1 14.7 12.8 15.0 30.8 36.4 –
PAT margin 6.4 5.3 1.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.5 –

EPS (Rs) 7.3 6.3 3.6 12.0 2.8 3.6 (13.1)
BV (Rs) 56.2 58.3 60.3 71.7 81.6 91.3 10.2
RoCE (%) 12.6 11.2 5.9 10.5 9.3 3.5
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 15.9 14.2 5.1 17.1 11.3 4.5 –

Net profit margin 6.4 5.3 1.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 –

45
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Astral

Price (Rs) 2,097
Growth trajectory promising...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ASTL.BO
• Astral has set a medium-term goal to double its revenue over the
Bloomberg code ASTRA IN
next five years. This target is based on anticipated volume growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 6,751 in the pipes segment and sustainable growth in the adhesives,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.1 sanitaryware, and paints segments.
Issued shares (mn) 269 • This growth is expected to be driven by the establishment of two new
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M facilities in Hyderabad and Kanpur. These facilities will significantly
Absolute (1) 1 15 enhance Astral’s brand presence in these regions, enabling the

Relative (1) 1 (3) company to tap into new markets and customer bases.
• The company is present in eight high growth categories of pipes, water
Valuation Ratios
tanks, adhesives and sealants, construction chemicals, bathware,
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
paints, specialised walls and infrastructure products. Additionally,
EPS (Rs) 18.6 17.0 20.3 Astral plans to launch OPVC pipes in the third quarter of FY25. The
+/- (%) 14.8 (8.5) 19.3 OPVC segment is projected to experience rapid growth compared to
the building materials segment due to its high acceptance in large
PER (x) 113.0 123.0 103.5
infrastructure projects and its cost advantages over ductile iron
PBV (x) 24.1 20.8 17.7 pipes.
Div./Yield (%) 14.6 16.0 17.9 • Beyond its core segments of pipes and adhesives, Astral is placing
EV/Sales (x) 12.7 10.8 9.9 increased focus on its water tanks segment. This segment is
expected to see meaningful growth over the next two to three years,
EV/EBITDA (x) 73.9 68.9 60.9
further diversifying the company’s revenue streams and enhancing
Major Shareholders (%) its market position.
Promoters 54 • The recent increase in PVC prices, ~15% over the last four months, is
FPIs 21
expected to positively impact volume growth in the first half of FY25.
MFs 8
Channel partners have already begun to stock up on fast-moving
BFSI’s 5
products in anticipation of continued price increases. Consequently,
Public & Others 12
higher realisations are expected due to the positive trend in PVC
Relative Performance prices in the near-term.
2,400
• The adhesive and paint business is progressing well, with a focus on
2,200
2,000 expanding the product range and enhancing branding for future
1,800 growth. A new rural division, “New Bharat,” is being launched to target
1,600
tier 2 and tier 3 cities, aiming for extensive penetration into the rural
1,400
1,200 retail ecosystem. This initiative will engage rural influencers such as
1,000 carpenters, masons, and contractors, as well as rural distributors.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Astral
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

46
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 25,073 25,779 31,763 43,940 51,585 56,414 17.6

EBITDA 3,813 4,413 6,375 7,534 8,066 9,183 19.2
PAT 1,955 2,471 4,011 4,776 4,519 5,461 22.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 38.7 –

EBITDA margin 15.2 17.1 20.1 17.1 15.6 16.3 –
PAT margin 7.8 9.6 12.6 10.9 8.8 9.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 5.6 7.0 11.4 13.7 17.6 20.3 29.6
BV (Rs) 33.9 42.0 53.0 65.4 100.7 118.7 28.5
RoCE (%) 22.8 21.3 29.7 30.0 25.5 23.1 –
RoA (%) 24.3 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 17.2 18.0 24.0 23.2 18.7 17.1 –

Net profit margin 7.8 9.6 12.6 10.9 8.8 9.7 –
Asset turnover (x) – – – – – 2.5 –
Leverage factor (x) – – – – – 0.7 –

47
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Aurobindo Pharma

Price (Rs) 1,186
PenG facility to ramp-up, strong portfolio to drive overall growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ARBN.BO
• Guidance
Bloomberg code ARBP IN
o High single-digit revenue growth anticipated on a consolidated
Market cap. (US$ mn) 8,327
level with EBITDA margin of 21-22%.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 30.3
o Eugia FY25 revenues to grow at 10% to US$ 600 mn.
Issued shares (mn) 586
o Low single digit growth expected in API business.
Target price (Rs) 1,375
• US geography – Largest segment for Aurobindo at US$ 1.7 bn (48%
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
of revenues)
Absolute 3 15 80
o The price erosion has eased in the US generics because smaller
Relative 3 15 62
players, causing the price erosion (5-10% range), are unable to
Valuation Ratios supply the products due to unaffordability. Hence, customers are
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E demanding reliable supplier.

Adj. EPS (Rs) 55.3 65.3 75.3 o Certain products are facing shortages, it is supplying as much as
possible.
Growth 68.0 18.2 15.3
o Being a late entrant, Revlimid is not a significant contributor for
PER 22.3 18.9 16.4
the company. It is in double digits revenue for the company, slight
Price/Book 2.4 2.2 2.1 upside is expected in FY25.

Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 o Strategy of the company is to grow on the basis of overall portfolio (658
ANDA’s approved, 172 pending) and not be dependent on one product.
EV/Sales 2.6 2.4 2.1
• Biosimilars (Curateq) and Biologics CDMO (TheraNym) – emerging
EV/EBITDA 13.1 11.3 9.9
driver
Major Shareholders (%)
o The company has 14 products currently in its pipeline. Around 4-5
Promoters 52 products would be registered in Europe and US. The company is
FPIs 18 focusing on wave 1, wave 2 and wave 3 launches which broadly
MFs 18
covers the products already existing in the market and products
BFSI’s 5
which would have minimal competition in the years to come. Total
Public & Others 7
target market in Biosimilars is US$ 50 bn.
Relative Performance o Aurobindo Pharma’s WOS TheraNym Biologics inked a pact with
1,400 US-based Merck/MSD to produce Biologicals. TheraNym will invest
1,200
Rs 10 bn in a phase manner by 2027 for Biologics drug substance
1,000
800 including setup of a 25-30 mn vials capacity. Revenues to
600 commence in FY28.
400
• Eugia plant 3 and Eugia Steriles update
200
o Eugia 3 plant USFDA inspection was classified as OAI, the
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

management has voluntarily hired a third-party consultant, though

Aurobindo Pharma it was not recommended by the agency. Last product launch was
Sensex (rebased) in January. Capacity utilisation at 70-75%.

Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

48
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o Eugia Steriles is a new plant at Vizag (~300 mn vials capacity), will act as a risk mitigation strategy
for Eugia 3 which has similar capacity of 285 mn vials. New and only bigger products will be filed
from Eugia Steriles (no site-transfer of pending filings). The plant underwent PAI inspection and had
3 observations.
o Aurobindo guided for Eugia US revenue at US$ 100-110 m per quarter and global revenue of around
US$ 600 mn (10% growth YoY, despite OAI to Eugia 3 unit).
• Penicillin G capex
o PenG facility of 15,000 MT fermentation plant commercialised in March. By September, it will be able
to anticipate the yield. Estimated EBITDA margin of 21-22%. Around 50-60% of the capacity would be
for captive consumption and rest will be sold in market. Total capex would be Rs 22-23 bn
o The entire value chain of PenG products like Glucose, Amoxycillin, 6APA would be produced in-house.
PenG and 6APA facilities are setup besides each other
o 75,000-80,000 metric tonne is the global consumption of PenG derivatives and 20,000-25,000 is
consumed by India (which was imported from China).
o It also commissioned 3,600 metric tonnes – 6 APA facility (derivative of PenG) recently, It is a import
substitution product..
• EU geography and Growth markets
o All business in EU are doing good and will continue to grow.
o Growth markets to record around US$ 300 mn revenue (~10% growth) Added Indonesia geography recently.
• India business
o Revenue run-rate to be stable at this level and due to expensive valuations and long payback period,
company unwilling to acquire brands in India

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 192,259 227,380 245,580 233,666 246,171 283,146 318,182 350,927 8.0 11.3
EBITDA 39,519 48,643 53,334 43,868 37,583 53,361 63,138 74,858 6.2 18.4
PAT 52,347 28,823 31,900 27,052 19,277 29,240 36,732 44,819 (11.0) 23.8
Margin (%)
Gross margin 54.7 57.2 59.7 56.6 54.1 55.0 54.5 54.6 – –
EBITDA margin 20.6 21.4 21.7 18.8 15.3 18.8 19.8 21.3 – –
PAT margin 27.2 12.7 13.0 11.6 7.8 10.3 11.5 12.8 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.3 0.2 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) – –
EPS (Rs) 89.3 49.2 54.4 46.2 32.9 49.9 62.7 76.5 (11.0) 23.8
BV (Rs) 237.1 286.9 374.3 419.5 458.1 491.2 524.6 566.8 15.7 7.4
RoCE (%) 18.4 18.1 17.9 12.1 8.7 12.1 13.8 15.7 – –
RoA (%) 14.5 14.4 14.5 10.4 7.6 10.5 12.0 13.6 – –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 40.9 18.8 16.5 11.6 7.5 10.5 12.3 14.0 – –
Net profit margin 27.2 12.7 13.0 11.6 7.8 10.3 11.5 12.8 – –
Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 – –

49
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Automotive Axles

Price (Rs) 1,907
Increasing value from innovation...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ATOA.BO
• Export business grew by 4-5% in value terms in FY24.
Bloomberg code ATXL IN
• The volume growth this quarter is primarily from the ICV segment,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 345
where there is high competition and less focus from management,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.6 resulting in lower realisations and value. The company plans to launch
Issued shares (mn) 15 two new axles for >49 tonnes. This is expected to increase the share of
Target price (Rs) 2,225 business and value for the company.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Currently, they have a limited presence in bus axles, primarily focusing
Absolute 1 (1) (12) on 12m buses. However, the company is now launching axles in the 9m
Relative 1 (1) (31) range.
• In brakes, Dia 325 and Dia 360 will be launched this year. This will help in
Valuation Ratios
revenue growth whenever there is an adverse axle segment growth.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The company is expected to spend Rs 500-600 mn in the next two
EPS (Rs.) 109.9 100.1 111.6
years (this is in addition to the maintenance capex) for New Product
Change (%) 2.5 (9.0) 11.4 Developments, automation, etc. (this is primarily for housing line, gear
PER (x) 17.3 19.1 17.1 manufacturing and assembly areas).
• The company is working with customers along with support from
PBV (x) 3.3 2.9 2.6
Cummins India to penetrate OEMs with less SOB with Automotive Axles
Div./Yield (%) 1.7 1.7 1.8
(ATXL). Strong progress witnessed in off-highway business and regular
EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.2 1.0 business.
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 11.3 9.9 • Industry is expected to achieve flat or 4-5% volume growth.

Major Shareholders (%) • In EV space, E Axles has emerged as a potential product. It is currently
part of Cummins-Meritor and ATXL is supplying the parts required to
Promoters 71
FPIs 1
Cummins-Meritor wherever possible. However, the company is still
MFs 12 unsure as to how the product will develop.
Public & Others 16

Relative Performance
3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Automotive Axles
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

50
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 19,390 9,520 9,056 14,906 23,237 22,292 21,439 23,998 2.8 3.8
EBITDA 2,291 934 659 1,347 2,575 2,463 2,251 2,544 1.5 1.6
PAT 1,216 432 266 744 1,620 1,662 1,513 1,686 6.5 0.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 30.6 32.2 30.5 28.7 28.2 28.8 28.9 28.9 – –

EBITDA margin 11.8 9.8 7.3 9.0 11.1 11.0 10.5 10.6 – –

PAT margin 6.3 4.5 2.9 5.0 7.0 7.5 7.1 7.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) – –

EPS (Rs) 80.4 28.6 17.6 49.2 107.2 109.9 100.1 111.6 6.5 0.7
BV (Rs) 356.3 352.0 366.6 411.0 502.5 579.6 647.7 724.3 10.2 11.8
RoCE (%) 34.8 10.7 6.4 16.6 30.7 26.7 21.5 21.6 – –

RoA (%) 22.3 7.7 4.4 10.3 20.1 18.9 16.0 16.3 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 24.7 8.1 4.9 12.7 23.5 20.3 16.3 16.3 – –

Net profit margin 6.3 4.5 2.9 5.0 7.0 7.5 7.1 7.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 – –

Reference report:
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Automotive Axles - 4QFY24 Result Update - 28 May 24.pdf

51
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Avalon Technologies

Price (Rs) 487
Designing solutions, shaping future
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code AVAL.BO
• Avalon Technologies is a prominent player in the electronic
Bloomberg code AVALON IN
manufacturing services with end-to-end capabilities in offering box
Market cap. (US$ mn) 384 build solutions and high-value precision engineered products.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.5 • They have a global presence in terms of manufacturing facilities and
Issued shares (mn) 66 customer base and focuses on industries like rail, aerospace, medical
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M and industrial.
Absolute (6) (8) 13 • The company has signed a 15-year master term agreement with
Relative (6) (9) (5) one of the major global aerospace companies and is expecting to
commence execution in 4QFY25 and ramp-up significantly in FY26.
Valuation Ratios
• One of their biggest Japanese customers from the railway segment
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
has been approved by the Indian Railways for an advanced version of
EPS (Rs) 24.3 45.3 24.1
signaling and interlocking system. They have also been approved for
+/- (%) 22.1 86.3 (46.7) the Kavach System in Indian Railways and Avalon is collaborating with

PER (x) 20.0 10.8 20.2 them on this initiative.

• The company has secured large orders with industry leading
PBV (x) 6.5 1.1 1.0
customers in the energy and industrial segments and are expecting
EV/Sales (x) 1.0 0.5 0.6
significant revenue visibility in late FY25. They have also made huge
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 4.0 8.7 progress in the defence and communication sector with execution

Major Shareholders (%) expected in FY26.

Promoters 51
• Avalon is guiding 14-18% revenue growth in FY25 with profit growth to
FPIs 2 outpace the revenue growth on the back of sustainable gross margins
MFs 21 and improve working capital. It intends to maintain its margins above
BFSI’s 1 35%.
Public & Others 24 • The company’s scalability is expected to be significant in FY26. They

Relative Performance have obtained several box-built contracts, and for others, they will

800
begin with PCBs and cable assemblies. They have also received
700 prototype orders, with commercial production expected in 2HFY25.
600 The company is confident about positive developments and believes
500 that FY25 will be pivotal for them.
400 • It aims to reduce working capital days by 10-15 days in FY25 and FY26
300 each. The industrial orders are contracts for three-five years, whereas
Nov-23

Jan-24
Jul-23
Aug-23
May-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

May-24
Apr-23

Apr-24
Dec-23

aerospace contracts are for ~15 years.

Avalon Technologies
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

52
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 6,419 6,905 8,407 9,447 8,672 7.8

EBITDA 645 661 975 1,126 625 (0.8)
PAT 123 231 282 525 280 22.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 35.9 34.0 34.1 36.8 36.3 –

EBITDA margin 10.0 9.6 11.6 11.9 7.2 –
PAT margin 1.9 3.3 3.4 5.6 3.2 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 64.4 9.3 3.3 (0.2) (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 10.6 19.9 24.3 45.3 24.1 22.8
BV (Rs) 3.0 24.3 75.2 463.3 472.2 255.0
RoCE (%) 42.8 17.7 24.1 16.6 6.6 –
RoA (%) 26.8 11.6 16.6 12.1 5.1 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 715.4 145.8 48.8 16.8 5.2 –

Net profit margin 1.9 3.3 3.4 5.6 3.2 –
Asset turnover (x) 2.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 –
Leverage factor (x) 130.5 30.4 9.5 2.8 2.0 –

53
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Axis Bank

Price (Rs) 1,162
Bank to drive NIM in tight liquidity through ALM; credit cost
BSE Sensex 73,961 could inch-up
Reuters code AXBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code AXSB IN We met Mr Arjun Chowdhry, Group Executive, and Mr Puneet Sharma,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 43,026 CFO, Axis Bank at our Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 140.5 of the meeting:

Issued shares (mn) 3,089 Banking system’s liquidity position

Target price (Rs) 1,235 • Liquidity is still tight as the GoI has not spent enough.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Marginal cost of funding is still stable for well managed banks.

Absolute (0) 8 27 Integration with Citi

Relative (0) 8 9 • IT system migration is still on and is the biggest piece and its few
weeks away from the completion.
Valuation Ratios
• The Citi business vertical integration is very much in line with the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
expectations.
Adj. EPS (Rs) 80.5 79.3 88.0
• Credit card replacement (re-carding) process is still on.
BVPS (Rs) 486.7 566.0 654.0 • TSA agreement is for 24 months. TSA cost (of Rs 3.5-4.0 bn) has been
Adj. Book 478.8 555.5 642.3 there on a quarterly basis. Post September 2024, TSA cost would fall off.
NAV/share (Rs)
• The TSA cost (Rs 6.0 bn) will not be there in 2HFY25. Overall, it will be a
PER (x) 14.5 14.7 13.2 needle-moving event in 2HFY25.

Price/Book (x) 2.4 2.1 1.8 Credit Card business growth

Price/Adj. book (x) 2.4 2.1 1.8 • Some of the growth in CC is seasonal, it was weak in the previous
quarter. CC growth has been generally slow in the March quarter (over
Div. Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.2
December quarter). The 30% YoY growth is not sustainable though.
Major Shareholders (%) • In PL, most of the PL businesses are to own customers.
Promoters 8 • CC number of cards may grow at specific rates, but spending would
FPIs 55 grow at the faster pace.
MFs 22
• CC spends on UPI has been growing at a much faster pace.
BFSI’s 7
• There is no reason to think that CC growth (number of customers)
Public & Others 8
would stagnate in the near future; the growth would continue for the
Relative Performance next three-four years.
1,300
1,200 • CC spends on UPI with smaller merchants have no issue w.r.t. MDR.
1,100 Although transactions at the large merchants would attract MDR.
1,000
900 Some of the smaller merchants becoming large may be hesitant.
800
700
Credit cost
600 • The prevailing credit cost is not the normalised one.
500
• The bank is currently operating at credit cost at 75-80 bps.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Credit cost could inch-up.

Axis Bank • Pricing of loans well factors in credit loss.
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

54
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

SME
• The bank has been providing retail loans to auto dealers and also offering business loans.
• 77% of the loans would be secured.
• There’s no geographic concentration; the average ticket size is not large.
• In the recent past quarters, the bank posted negative net slippages.
Higher-yielding loan portfolio growth
• The bank would like to be part of the transacting business portfolio if there is not good growth in the
large corporate loan segment.
• RoRAC is the key parameter and filter to do the loan selection.
• Corporate credit demand and corporate capex is coming back. The corporates are using their own
funds (cash balances) first.
Loans linked to Repo
• Average asset maturity is at 13-15 months.
• As long as the bank manages ALM well on the matched basis, volatility in NIM would not be there.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 217,082 252,062 292,391 331,322 429,457 498,945 570,799 661,541 18.1 15.1
Operating Expense 158,334 173,046 183,751 236,108 396,560 352,133 408,833 473,774 17.3 16.0
Operating Profit 190,051 234,381 231,276 247,420 197,906 371,232 411,642 475,362 14.3 13.2
PAT 46,766 16,272 65,882 130,250 95,797 248,614 249,518 285,258 39.7 7.1
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 666,763 849,478 1,016,030 1,151,741 1,254,167 1,510,616 1,751,868 2,037,954 17.8 16.2
Advances 4,947,980 5,714,242 6,143,994 7,079,466 8,453,028 9,650,684 11,138,511 12,977,198 14.3 16.0
Deposits 5,484,713 6,401,049 6,979,853 8,219,715 9,469,452 10,686,414 12,320,497 14,331,930 14.3 15.8
Total Assets 8,009,965 9,151,648 9,867,976 11,754,288 13,173,255 14,772,086 16,986,312 19,631,948 13.0 15.3
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 18 6 22 42 31 81 81 92 34.7 7.1
BV 259 310 332 375 406 487 568 647 13.4 15.3
ABV 230 299 315 361 414 479 557 647 15.8 16.3
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.2 (0.2) 1.8 1.6 1.6
ROE 7.2 2.1 7.1 12.0 (2.4) 18.1 15.3 15.1
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 5.8 5.1 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.8
NNPA 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
PCR 62.1 69.0 72.4 74.7 80.9 78.5 78.2 78.5
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 12.5 14.5 16.5 16.3 14.6 14.2 14.2 14.2
Total cap. adequacy 15.8 17.5 19.1 18.5 17.6 16.6 16.0 15.9

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Axis Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 24 Apr 24.pdf

55
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data AXISCADES Technologies

Price (Rs) 476
Expects Aerospace, Defence and Energy verticals to witness
BSE Sensex 73,961 healthy growth in FY25...
Reuters code AXIT.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code AXET IN • AXISCADES Technologies (AXISCADES) reported good performance in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 240 most of verticals in FY24, except Heavy Engineering and PES (Product
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.0 Engineering Services), where the company faced macro challenges.
Issued shares (mn) 42 • Revenue growth in Engineering services (21% growth in FY24) was driven
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M by Aerospace, Automotive and Energy. This growth came despite de-
Absolute (25) (25) 33 growth and softness in Heavy Engineering and Product Engineering
verticals.
Relative (25) (26) 15
• The company continues to make significant investments in building
Valuation Ratios
digital capabilities, which is likely to have short- to medium-term
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
impact on EBITDA margin.
EPS (Rs) 5.9 (1.4) 8.2 • The long-term relationship with Aerospace OEMs continues to expand
PER (x) 81.3 - 58.0 and will benefit from the enhancement in production run rate by OEMs,
backed by large order backlog with the OEMs. As such, the recurring
PBV (x) 5.5 4.8 3.3
revenues from manufacturing support and in-service repairs will
EV/ Sales (x) 2.9 2.1 2.1
continue to show healthy growth in FY25.
EV/ EBITDA (x) 25.0 12.3 14.9 • The Aerospace vertical is expected to maintain margin of over 20%
Major Shareholders (%) EBITDA through automation and other efficiencies. However, it will not

Promoters 60 reach the 28-30% EBITDA margins seen in the Defense sector.
MFs 5 • AXISCADES is seeing signs of softness is some automotive clients
BFSI’s 4 owing to challenges from Chinese OEMs on their EV portfolio.
Public & Others 31 • AXISCADES projects healthy growth from Energy vertical in FY25. A lot
Relative Performance of activity is witnessed in the renewable side of the energy sector.
1,000 • In Heavy Engineering vertical, the growth will be neutral in this vertical
800 in the first two quarters of FY25, the company expects growth to return
600 to this vertical in the second half of FY25. Heavy Engineering is mostly
400 in US region for the company.
200
• Defense production revenues in Mistral triples from Rs 0.39 bn to Rs 1.12
0
bn, with Rs 2.72 bn in executable production orders.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• In Defense vertical, production revenues will continue to ramp-up in

AXISCADES Technologies.
FY25. Multi crore order pipeline of design wins awaiting production in
Sensex (rebased) outer years. New opportunities in counter drone system over the next
five years are highly promising with addressable market more than Rs
30 bn.

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

56
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Recently, the company secured a deal with BEL and has received back-to-back orders from them. There
is subsidiary under the company, which is focused on defense.
• Product engineering business experienced de-growth owing to over production and over stocking of
semiconductor chips global semi-conductor makers during the pandemic. AXISCADES expects that
growth will return to this vertical during the later part of FY25, with flushing out of built-up inventories.
• QIP amounted to Rs 2.03 bn, with a significant portion allocated for debt repayment. By the end of FY25,
the company aims to become debt-free.
• The company is building a strong digital team which will benefit the company internally as well in chasing
deals.
• The company is aiming for 15-15.5% EBITDA margin in FY25.
• The company has positioned a Business Unit Head in Dubai to enhance current relationships and build
new relationships in the Middle East and seeks to open a Marketing office in Dubai in FY25.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR(%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

Sales 6,729 5,238 6,103 8,217 9,551 9.2

EBITDA 917 639 706 1,419 1,332 9.8
PAT 300 (214) 226 (48) 333 2.7
Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 13.8 12.4 11.6 17.4 14.0 –

EBIT Margin 8.9 7.3 7.5 14.2 10.4 –
PAT Margin 4.5 (4.1) 3.7 (0.6) 3.5 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 (0.2) (0.2) 0.4 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 7.8 (5.7) 5.9 (1.4) 8.2 1.2
BV (Rs) 82 80 86 99 145 21.7
RoCE (%) 25.0 25.7 13.4 22.8 13.5 –
RoA (%) 15.5 14.1 7.1 14.7 10.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 19.0 (14.3) 7.2 (1.4) 7.2 –

Net profit margin 4.5 (4.1) 3.7 (0.6) 3.5 –
Asset Turnover (x) 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.2 –

57
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Azad Engineering

Price (Rs) 1,496
Rising giant
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code 0.0
• Azad Engineering operates in an industry that is neither cyclical nor
Bloomberg code AZAD IN
seasonal and faces far more global demand than it can meet. The
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,059.6 airfoils segment alone is a huge category, with one of its competitors
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.0 in the US generating revenue of Rs 2.5 bn from this single product.
Issued shares (mn) 59.1 • It has proven capabilities and have been listed/approved by most
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M of the major players securing its margins in the range of 32-36%
Absolute 12 24 0 irrespective of product mix. Hence, the company is focusing on growth

Relative 12 23 (18) and generate revenue by building new capacities.

• It is looking at revenue growth of 25-30% in FY25 based on current order
Valuation Ratios
book. It has come a long way optimising its design and manufacturing
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
process leading to higher margins.
EPS (Rs) 4.9 1.5 9.9
• The company has achieved a significant milestone by securing a
+/- (%) 154.1 (69.2) 556.4 seven-year contract from Rolls-Royce for defence and military aircraft

PER (x) 305.5 993.4 151.3

engines.
• It has planned multiple capacity expansion for clients like Mitsubishi,
PBV (x) 74.1 43.6 13.8
GE Vernova, etc. The investment in capacity building enhances
EV/Sales (x) 46.7 36.3 26.0
its production capabilities and strengthens its ability to meet the
EV/EBITDA (x) 145.8 126.5 76.1 increasing demand across business verticals.

Major Shareholders (%) • Azad is the most competitive player in the industry globally and can

Promoters 66
have higher wallet share/market share if it continues to add new
FPIs 7 capacities.
MFs 4 • The new capacity is expected to have asset turnover of 2x. The new
BFSI’s 1 facility that the company has started to build has 10x its current
Public & Others 22 capacity and the revenue from the same is expected to begin flowing

Relative Performance in from FY26E onwards.

2,000 • The market for the company’s key products is highly regulated and
has a TAM of over US$ 28 bn and with a wallet share of less than 1%, it
1,500
has huge scope for growth going ahead.
1,000
• The enquiry/order pipeline is robust which is under discussion and
500
for which qualifications and approvals are awaited. The company
0 expects improvement in working capital as well as RoCE as its business
Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

mix shifts towards high margin products.

• The company is working on various initiatives such as local sourcing,
Azad Engineering
Sensex (rebased) process improvements, further qualifications of new products,
especially in Aerospace and the Oil & Gas segment, etc.

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

58
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The current order book of over Rs 30 bn is executable over a period of three, five, or seven years. With
existing capacity, the company expects to grow by 25-30% per annum.
• Energy business is expected to grow at 25-30% annually. Aerospace segment has a larger growth outlook
of 35-40% annually and Oil & Gas having smaller base can potentially grow higher than the two in the next
three years.
• EBITDA margins are expected to remain in the range of 32-36% annually going ahead. Gross margins
will likely remain in the range of 82-86% going ahead. The margin guidance is irrespective of product/
revenue mix that might occur.
• While the company has guided for 32-36% margins, it can easily clock 38% if they stop onboarding new
clients as the qualification leads to higher inventory and working capital impacting margins. However, it
intends to continue onboarding clients to tap growth.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%) (FY21-24)

Financials

Sales 1,227 1,945 2,517 3,408 40.6

EBITDA 282 623 723 1,166 60.6
PAT 115 291 90 588 72.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 88.7 89.3 88.0 86.5

EBITDA margin (%) 22.9 32.0 28.7 34.2
PAT margin 9.3 15.0 3.6 17.3
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.8 1.5 1.2 (0.0)

EPS (Rs) 1.9 4.9 1.5 9.9 72.5
BV (Rs) 15.4 20.3 34.5 109.1 92.2
RoCE (%) 22.8 20.6 15.4 20.8
RoA (%) 16.9 16.3 13.2 18.5
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 25.2 27.6 5.5 13.8

Net profit margin 9.3 15.0 3.6 17.3
Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5
Leverage factor (x) 2.8 3.1 3.1 1.6

59
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Bajaj Consumer Care

Price (Rs) 230
Focus on core growth and portfolio diversification
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code BACO.BO
Current business overview and growth outlook
Bloomberg code BAJAJCON IN
• Larger packs are doing well. Smaller SKUs are still under pressure.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 395
• Green shoots are being seen now. Rural outperformed urban in
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.8 4QFY24 after six quarters. With the expectation of a normal monsoon,
Issued shares (mn) 143 rural should pick-up further in FY25.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • ADHO should grow at 5-7%. Non-ADHO is growing faster and
Absolute (5) (2) 24 contributing 15% of the revenue now.

Relative (5) (2) 6 • In Coconut and Amla, there hasn’t been any price action. In ADHO,
100 ml and above packs have seen price hikes, whereas the LUPs (50
Valuation Ratios
ml, 10 ml, sachets) have seen price cuts.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Topline growth is expected at ~10% in FY25. On a steady state basis,
EPS (Rs) 11.8 9.8 11.1 pricing growth will be 3-4%. Volume growth of mid-single digit.
+/- (%) (21.9) (17.1) 13.4 Almond Drops Hair Oil segment (ADHO)

PER (x) 19.6 23.7 20.9 • Sachets/50 ml/100 ml packs have been under pressure. Bajaj
Consumer Care (BCORP) is at a premium to competition in terms of
PBV (x) 4.1 4.0 3.8
pricing.
Div./Yield (%) 3.4 2.2 4.5 • BCORP is taking corrective measures in terms of right sizing the
EV/Sales (x) 3.2 2.9 2.8 SKU, taking price cuts, etc. The benefits from the same should start
reflecting from 2QFY25.
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 19.2 17.0
• LUPs and mid packs are 40% of the total ADHO volumes.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Larger packs volumes have grown at 3-4%. If the slide in LUPs gets
Promoters 39
arrested, the overall ADHO segment should grow at 5-7%.
FPIs 14
Category enhancement
MFs 15
BFSI’s 3 • The company is considering entering different categories apart
Public & Others 29 from hair oil. The company is evaluating options. However, it is at
very preliminary stages. Inorganic growth or extension into newer
Relative Performance categories cannot be ruled out.
300
Competitive intensity
250
• In light hair oil, competition from unorganised is negligible. In
200 coconut, there is a lot of competition. There are some D2C brands in
150 the premium category.

100
• Hair oil industry as a whole has grown at 1-2% only over the last three-
four years.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Bajaj Consumer Care

Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

60
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR(%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 8,809 8,178 8,980 8,655 9,381 9,516 1.6

EBITDA 2,784 2,106 2,435 1,785 1,414 1,582 (10.7)

PAT 2,261 1,906 2,236 1,745 1,399 1,588 (6.8)

Margin (%)

Gross margin 65.8 66.6 63.3 57.3 53.4 54.3 –

EBITDA margin 31.6 25.7 27.1 20.6 15.1 16.6 –

PAT margin 25.7 23.3 24.9 20.2 14.9 16.7 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.5) (0.6) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) –

EPS (Rs) 15.3 12.9 15.2 11.8 9.8 11.1 –

BV (Rs) 32.9 45.9 53.0 56.9 57.5 60.6 –

RoCE (Rs) 56.2 39.0 36.7 26.1 20.4 22.7 –

RoA (Rs) 46.7 32.3 31.1 22.7 17.9 19.7 –

Du Pont analysis (%)

RoE 45.6 32.8 30.7 21.5 16.9 18.8 –

Net profit margin 25.7 23.3 24.9 20.2 14.9 16.7 –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 –

61
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Balrampur Chini Mills

Price (Rs) 378
The worst is over, Ethanol policy and pricing remain key
BSE Sensex 73,961 monitorable
Reuters code BACH.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code BRCM IN • Despite uncertainties caused by the government policies aimed at
Market cap. (US$ mn) 915 controlling inflation, Balrampur Chini Mills (BCML) has demonstrated
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 11.2 resilience, continuing to grow year-on-year across all segments.
Issued shares (mn) 202 • The company’s efforts to collaborate with farmers and implement
Target price (Rs) 540 new crop hybrids have successfully increased gross sugar recovery.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M This also highlights BCML’s proactive measures to mitigate the impact
of crop diseases like red rot.
Absolute (4) 1 (4)
• BCML’s ability to work closely with farmers has been crucial in improving
Relative (4) 1 (22)
crop yields and sugar recovery rates, showcasing the company’s
Valuation Ratios
commitment to sustainable agricultural practices.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The outlook for the upcoming sugar season 2024-25 will significantly
EPS 26.6 28.8 34.6 depend on government policies related to ethanol production and
Change (%) 88.6 8.4 20.0 pricing, which remain critical areas for monitoring.
• Continuous assessment of crop conditions and staying abreast of
PER (x) 14.2 13.1 10.9
policy changes will be essential for the company to maintain its growth
PBV(x) 2.2 1.9 1.7
trajectory and adapt to evolving market and regulatory environments.
Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 0.9 • We showcased Ms. Avantika Saraogi as a next-gen entrepreneur
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 who has made a quantum leap from the traditional sugar business
into biodegradable plastic replacement products. Her commitment
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 10.6 8.8
to improving the business by working with farmers has been
Major Shareholders (%)
noteworthy. The new project’s viability (from FY27 onwards) is likely to
Promoters 43 be well-received by investors with faith in the management.
FPIs 11
• Also, BCML has contracted with renowned global technology providers
MFs 19
to develop India’s first integrated sugar-to-PLA bioplastics facility
BFSI’s 2
(75,000 tonnes per annum). This can contribute to the topline of ~Rs
Public & Others 25
15-20 bn annually with a decent margin.
Relative Performance
• The Board of Directors has approved an estimated investment of Rs 20
700
bn (Rs 8 bn to come from internal accruals and Rs 12 bn through debt)
600
in phases over a period of around 2.5 years.
500
• The outlook for the upcoming sugar season 2024-25 will significantly
400
depend on government policies related to ethanol production and
300
200
pricing, which remain critical areas for monitoring.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Balrampur Chini Mills

Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Somnath Saha

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com somnath.saha@bksec.com

62
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 42,858 47,413 48,117 48,608 46,659 55,938 60,238 63,035 5.5 6.2

EBITDA 6,978 6,820 7,138 7,165 5,123 7,860 9,276 10,967 2.4 18.1

PAT 5,706 5,093 4,798 5,315 2,845 5,365 5,815 6,980 (1.2) 14.1

Margin (%)

Gross margin 28.7 26.2 28.2 28.9 26.9 30.0 30.4 32.2 – –

EBITDA margin 16.3 14.4 14.8 14.7 11.0 14.1 15.4 17.4 – –

PAT margin 13.3 10.7 10.0 10.9 6.1 9.6 9.7 11.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 – –

EPS (Rs) 28.3 25.2 23.8 26.3 13.7 23.3 32.0 38.8 (3.8) 29.1

BV (Rs) 103.2 117.5 127.1 136.8 142.5 162.8 191.3 225.1 9.5 17.6

RoCE (%) 19.0 15.8 16.4 16.3 9.8 13.9 16.3 17.1 – –

RoA (%) 15.3 13.2 13.6 14.4 9.0 12.8 15.0 15.7 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 31.1 22.9 19.4 20.0 9.8 15.3 18.1 18.7 – –

Net profit margin 13.3 10.7 10.0 10.9 5.9 9.0 10.8 11.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Balrampur Chini Mills - 4QFY24 Result Update - 21 May
24.pdf

63
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Bharat Wire Ropes

Price (Rs) 274
Focus on margin improvement and better product mix
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code BHWR.BO
• Bharat Wire Ropes (BWRL) witnessed a 7% YoY increase in volumes and
Bloomberg code BWRL IN
5.6% in revenue in FY24 owing to de-bottlenecking of capacity and
Market cap. (US$ mn) 223 new product development.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 • Disturbances in Red Sea material movement impacted the
Issued shares (mn) 68 company’s profitability in 4QFY24. However, BWRL expects that the
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Red Sea disturbance is gradually stabilising and freight costs, which
Absolute (9) (10) 48 had risen, are now normalising and coming down.

Relative (9) (10) 30 • The company expects that the trend of growth experienced in
the past two years will be maintained going forward. On a rough
Valuation Ratios
estimate, expected growth will be ~10%.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The majority of freight costs are normally passed on to the customers,
EPS (Rs) 2.0 9.1 14.3
and even in this situation, BWRL’s customers have accepted the
Change (%) 181.4 355.4 54.6 situation and agreed to pay for the freight costs.

PER (x) 135.9 29.8 19.3 • The company has started to increase its focus on value-added
products. The current mix of value-added in portfolio stands at 10-
PBV (x) 4.1 3.3 2.8
15%.
EV/Sales (x) 5.2 3.4 3.2
• The company expects the EBITDA/kg to improve from current levels
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.1 14.6 12.1 of Rs 41 in FY25.
Major Shareholders (%) • The current global market size in value terms stands at US$ 6-7 bn.
Promoters 41 • The company has received Rs 0.9 bn out of a total Rs 1.5 bn subsidy
FPIs 3 due to the company as of FY24. The company expects a further Rs 0.4
BFSI’s 11 bn to be received in FY25.
Public & Others 46
• The current domestic share of business stands at 23%. The company
Relative Performance is looking for Government projects to improve domestic share.
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Bharat Wire Ropes

Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

64
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-FY24)

Financials

Sales 2,406 2,577 2,502 4,107 5,891 6,218 20.9

EBITDA 187 290 324 622 1,388 1,640 54.4
PAT (446) (610) (168) 137 622 962 16.6
Margin (%)

Gross Margin 36.8 36.7 36.3 36.7 44.2 47.4 –

EBITDA Margin 7.8 11.2 13.0 15.1 23.6 26.4 –
PAT Margin (18.5) (23.7) (6.7) 3.3 10.6 15.5 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 4.6 10.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 –

EPS (Rs) (6.5) (9.0) (2.5) 2.0 9.1 14.3 16.8
BV (Rs) 14.7 5.7 64.0 66.4 82.3 97.1 46.0
ROCE (%) (0.5) 1.5 1.9 5.7 16.1 18.6 –
RoA (%) (0.4) 1.0 1.5 5.4 15.3 18.0 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) (89.4) (87.9) (7.1) 3.1 12.3 15.8 –

Net Profit Margin (18.5) (23.7) (6.7) 3.3 10.6 15.5 –
Asset Turnover (x) 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 –
Leverage Factor (x) 7.7 10.9 3.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 –

65
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Biocon

Price (Rs) 309
Biosimilar growth story; GLP (peptides emerging as new growth
BSE Sensex 73,961 vertical)
Reuters code BION.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code BIOS IN • Generic segment – GLP-1 (Peptides) emerging as new high growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4,450 opportunity
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 27.2 • Biosimilar segment – Base business gaining market share; new
Issued shares (mn) 1,201 launches key for growth
Target price (Rs) 335 • Biocon has responded to USFDA queries for Bevacizumab and Insulin
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Aspart and expects re-inspection soon (for Malaysia and Bengaluru
Absolute 4 12 26 facilities).

Relative 3 12 8 • Net debt at group level stood at US$ 1.1-1.3 bn as of March 2024. The
company is evaluating a range of options to pare down debt like
Valuation Ratios
a) own cash flows and b) other options like divestment of non-core
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
assets.
EPS (Rs) 6.6 8.7 12.7 • Divested Branded Injectable Formulations business of Biocon Biologics
+/- (%) 7.7 31.6 44.9 pertaining to the Indian Territory to Eris Lifesciences for a consideration
of Rs 12.4 bn (~US$ 150 mn), mainly to pare down the debt at group level.
PER (x) 48.0 36.5 25.2
• Announced positive topline data from a Phase 1b EQUALISE study of
PBV (x) 1.9 1.8 1.7
Itolizumab in patients with Lupus Nephritis. The study demonstrated
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 clinically meaningful response in highly proteinuric subjects, with
EV/Sales (x) 2.9 2.5 3.5 more than 80% of subjects achieving over 50% reduction in urine
protein creatinine ratio. During FY24, Bicara presented positive interim
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.8 14.6 11.6
data from its ongoing, open-label Phase 1/1b dose expansion study of
Major Shareholders (%)
BCA101.
Promoters 61
• 4Q sales were flat at Rs 39 bn, while higher costs kept EBITDA lower by
FPIs 6
8% to Rs 9.2 bn with 300 bps contraction in margins to 23.4% resulting
MFs 9
in 63% decline in adjusted PAT to Rs 1.3 bn. For FY24, while biosimilar
BFSI’s 5
segment gained 58% YoY to Rs 55.8 bn due to Viatris acquisition and
Public & Others 20
Research services grew 9%, the API segment remained weak with
Relative Performance flattish sales to Rs 2.8 bn on account of price erosion in API segment.
600 Sales grew 32% to Rs 147 bn, while adjusted PAT grew by 8% to Rs 8 bn,
500 while EBITDA margins came in at 22.4% due to higher R&D and Viatris
400 related transaction costs.
300

200

100
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Biocon
Sensex (rebased)

Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

66
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 53,811 61,448 70,073 80,248 110,023 145,631 154,993 171,544 22.0 8.5
EBITDA 13,937 16,031 16,527 19,139 25,117 32,987 36,153 42,768 18.8 13.9
PAT 7,296 7,601 8,049 8,363 7,411 7,980 10,503 15,219 1.8 38.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 64.8 67.6 68.0 66.1 66.7 66.4 66.7 67.6 – –

EBITDA margin 25.9 26.1 23.6 23.8 22.8 22.7 23.3 24.9 – –

PAT margin 13.6 12.4 11.5 10.4 6.7 5.5 6.8 8.9 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 – –

EPS (Rs) 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.0 6.2 6.6 8.7 12.7 1.8 38.1
BV (Rs) 50.8 55.9 63.6 70.2 148.8 164.8 173.0 185.2 26.5 6.0
RoCE (%) 12.0 11.1 8.6 7.9 5.6 5.8 5.5 6.7 – –

RoA (%) 9.9 9.1 7.2 6.7 4.9 4.8 4.5 5.7 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 12.9 11.9 11.2 10.4 5.6 4.2 5.2 7.1 – –

Net profit margin 13.6 12.4 11.5 10.4 6.7 5.5 6.8 8.9 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Biocon - 4QFY24 Result Update - 21 May 24.pdf

67
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data BLS E-Services

Price (Rs) 246
Focus on increasing presence through organic and inorganic route
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code BLSE.BO
Business Correspondent (BC) segment
Bloomberg code BLSE IN
• BLSe is the largest BC for SBI and also serves HDFC, BOB, PNB, Kotak,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 268
Axis, and regional banks.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.0
• The work in this segment involves creating a dedicated outlet for a
Issued shares (mn) 91 specific bank. Account openings can only be done for the dedicated
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M bank for which the outlet is opened. Transactional services are
Absolute (19) (33) 0 available for all banks. Growth in this area comes from increasing
Relative (19) (34) (18) the number of branches and deepening or widening services.

Valuation Ratios • A large part of the commission comes from transactions. As the
business grows, substantial bank deposits are generated, creating
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
trailing commissions as well.
EPS 0.9 3.7 3.7
• Currently, there are 21,000 branches (18,000 for PSU banks) across the
+/- 70.8 310.2 0.6 country, operating on a franchise model. The company has contracts
PER 275.0 67.0 66.7 with the banks, and it is upon the company to choose the franchise.
The company does not invest in infrastructure. The franchise owns
PBV 98.2 14.4 5.2
the outlet.
EV/Sales 15.2 6.1 6.5
• Franchisees receive 70% of the total revenue generated (averaging
EV/EBITDA 213.0 45.1 47.1 between Rs 12,000 to Rs 15,000 per month per branch). The company
Major Shareholders (%) retains the remaining 30%.

Promoters 69 • The number of branches is expected to grow by 35%, with per outlet
FPIs 12 yield also increasing.
BFSI’s 4 • The industry consists of around 1,000,000 BC outlets, with ~200,000 on the
Public & Others 15 PSU side. Private banks typically pay better than PSUs, though volumes
Relative Performance are higher for PSUs in rural areas, and they have a broader product mix.
450 • This company is the largest in this space, with half of the PSU BC
400 market being SBI, for which it is the largest partner. The second
350 largest player has 10,000 branches, a huge gap between the size.
300
• On the PSU side, the focus is shifting from liabilities to assets, offering
250
small-ticket loans and collections, which have higher yields.
200
• BC segment accounts for 60% of the total revenue. EBITDA margins
Feb-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Mar-24

May-24
May-24
Apr-24
Apr-24

are ~16%.

BLS E-Services E-Governance segment

Sensex (rebased)
• There are two main types of activities:
1. Field-based Activities: These involve franchises providing
e-government services, such as issuing birth certificates or collector
certificates.

Jigar Jani Purva Zanwar

Research Analyst Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com purva.zanwar@bksec.com

68
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

2. Business Process Activities: The company checks the quality of Aadhaar enrolments and verifies
enrolments for the Ayushman Scheme with the central government.
• The company participates in both state and central government contracts.
• The company operates in 12 districts in Uttar Pradesh (project e-District), 15 districts in Karnataka
(Project Brahma One), 5 districts in Rajasthan (eMitra). In Gujarat and West Bengal work for land record
automation.
• In e-governance, a significant portion of fees goes to the franchise, with the company retaining only
a 10% commission fee. It contributes 20% of overall revenue. Margins range between 10-20%, and on a
blended basis, they are like the BC business.
• Growth is driven by state governments as they issue tenders, resulting in a lumpy revenue pattern.
• Typically, there are no more than two service providers in the same district.
Assisted e-Services
• In assisted e-commerce set-up, an employee/entrepreneur assists the local population in browsing and
ordering an item of their choice, within their budget, online, through open-web websites or designated
websites, gets the delivery at their store and delivers it to the consumer against cash or any other form
of payment methods.
• This segment primarily leverages on BC and e-governance services to create cross-selling opportunities.
E.g.: sale of insurance, IRCTC ticket booking counter via the above two channels.
Others
• Out of 4 bn cash on books; Rs 1 bn is earmarked for inorganic growth and Rs 0.6 bn for tech spending.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY21-24)
Financials
Sales 645 967 2,431 3,015 67.2
EBITDA 47 69 331 418 106.8
PAT 31 54 229 335 120.0
Margin (%)
Gross margin 35.0 34.3 33.5 31.1 –
EBITDA margin 7.3 7.2 13.6 13.9 –
PAT margin 4.9 5.6 9.4 11.1 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.2 (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) –
EPS (Rs) 0.5 0.9 3.7 3.7 91.7
BV (Rs) 1.6 2.5 17.1 47.4 208.9
RoCE (%) 10.9 21.9 31.4 30.6 –
RoA (%) 10.1 20.3 28.3 27.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 11.3 21.6 30.1 32.4 –
Net profit margin 10.5 13.1 13.6 19.4 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.3 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 –

69
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Blue Star

Price (Rs) 1,576
Turning up the heat
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code BLUS.BO
• Unitary products: The cooling and purification products is witnessing
Bloomberg code BLSTR IN sustenance in demand momentum due to unrestricted and harsh
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,885 summer season. The company surpassed 1 mn units in RAC.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.4 • Growth momentum is expected to continue due to rising temperatures.
Issued shares (mn) 206 There is huge surge in demand from channels and expects industry
Target price (Rs) 1,525 volume growth in 1QFY25 to be 30-40% YoY.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Volumes in April 2024 grew between 70-90% and witnessed shortage
in certain pockets of India.
Absolute 5 24 119
• The company expects RAC penetration level in India to double in the
Relative 5 24 100
next three-four years and volumes to surpass that of China by 2045,
Valuation Ratios mainly driven by exports and high demand from aspirational middle
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E class.
EPS (Rs) 20.2 29.7 44.2 • The commercial refrigeration business is witnessing good traction
with strong demand from OEMs, hospitals, offices and educational
+/- (%) 69 47 49
institutions. Increase in outside food consumption remains major
PER (x) 78.9 53.5 36.0 growth driver of this business.
PBV (x) 12.5 10.8 8.7 • Enquiry pipeline from all sectors except for commercial buildings is
Dividend/Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 healthy. The Air conditioner market in India is estimated to be at Rs 240
bn, whereas commercial refrigeration market is valued at ~Rs 50 bn,
EV/Sales (x) 3.3 2.7 2.1
which is expected to grow at 20-25% annually due to lower base.
EV/EBITDA (x) 48.5 36.6 25.3 • Blue Star (BLSTR) expects topline to grow in upwards of 25% during FY25E
Major Shareholders (%) with margins of 8-8.5% subject to uninterrupted summer demand.

Promoters 36 • EMPS: This segment is also witnessing encouraging growth on the

FPIs 16 back of demand from manufacturing, data centres and infrastructure
MFs 23 segments.
BFSI’s 2 • However, demand from commercial buildings and real estate sector
Public & Others 23 is yet to take off. The company has received major orders from data
Relative Performance centres and infrastructure segment.

1,700 • There is huge tender pipeline in certain infrastructure projects and

1,500 commercial buildings despite current slowdown which is expected to
1,300
1,100
pick-up pace after general elections and help boost order inflow from
900 2QFY25 onwards.
700
500
• BLSTR aims to post revenue growth of ~25% in FY25E with margins in
300 long-term sustainable range of 7-7.5%.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Its commercial AC business is driven by product portfolio and channel

expansion. Demand from industrial, healthcare, hospitality, retail,
Blue Star
educational institutions and data centres is driving growth.
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

70
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 52,348 53,602 42,636 60,641 79,773 96,854 119,577 149,997 11.1 24.4
EBITDA 3,465 2,828 2,398 3,465 4,928 6,649 8,785 12,688 9.2 38.1
PAT 1,874 1,473 1,004 1,677 2,297 4,150 6,113 9,081 5.2 47.9
Margin (%)

Gross margin 24.9 25.0 23.3 21.9 22.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 6.6 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.3 8.5 – –

PAT margin 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.9 4.3 5.1 6.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 19.5 15.3 10.4 8.7 11.9 20.2 29.7 44.2 (11.5) 47.9
BV (Rs) 90.7 81.2 91.9 52.8 69.1 126.9 147.3 182.1 (6.6) 19.8
RoCE (%) 24.5 18.9 15.6 19.9 24.3 24.9 27.1 34.4 – –

RoA (%) 9.0 7.1 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.2 11.1 13.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 22.5 17.8 12.0 17.6 19.6 21.1 21.7 26.8 – –

Net profit margin 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.9 4.3 5.1 6.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.0 2.6 2.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Blue Star - 4QFY24 Result Update - 03 May 24.pdf

71
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Brand Concepts

Price (Rs) 640
A fashion accessory luggage company
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights Demand
Reuters code BRAN.BO
• There’s a noticeable slowdown in the retail market, affecting footfalls
Bloomberg code BCONCEPT IN
in malls and stores, including e-commerce in lifestyle categories.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 85
• By FY27-28, the company can reach Rs 5 bn in revenues.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.2
Brands
Issued shares (mn) 11
• In terms of brands, the company has licensed brands such as Tommy
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Hilfiger (TH), United Colors of Benetton (UCB), and Aeropostale, and its own
Absolute (13) (14) 135 in-house label Sugar rush (Women’s handbag) and Vertical (Travel gear).
Relative (13) (14) 117 • For Tommy Hilfiger, the company has the license for travel gear as well
Valuation Ratios as small leather goods. UCB and Aeropostale are new additions to the
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 brands. For both these brands, the company has licence for across all
the three categories i.e. travel gear, small leather goods (SLG) as well
EPS 0.6 9.0 9.8
as women handbags.
+/- (109.4) 1,413.6 8.4
• The company starts right from design, development, getting the bags
PER 1,072.0 70.8 65.3 manufactured followed by sales and distribution and marketing the
PBV 37.0 24.5 12.7 brands across the various different channels.
• UCB SLG has started doing very well. The response has been very
EV/Sales 8.1 4.3 3.0
encouraging. UCB contributed 7-8% to the total revenue for the full
EV/EBITDA 89.9 32.7 27.0
year. In 4Q, its contribution increased to ~20%.
Major Shareholders (%) • Aeropostale still requires significant improvement on the product side.
Promoters 49 It’s primarily an online-focused brand.
BFSI’s 3
• For a couple of years, the company might restrict itself to a few brands
Public & Others 49
including any existing brands in discussion and focus on scaling them
Relative Performance up to a level.
1,000 Channel
800
• In terms of distribution, the company is well-represented across all
600
formats, including e-commerce channels. The company operates its
400
own stores under the name Bagline. Currently, the mono brand stores
200
are exclusively for Tommy Hilfiger. There are 4 mono brand Tommy
0
Hilfiger Travel Gear stores and 35 Bagline stores, totaling 39 stores. All
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

channels are currently profitable.

Brand Concepts • Over the past year and a half, the company has focused on building
Sensex (rebased) its own capabilities in marketplace sales, directly reaching end
consumers through platforms like Myntra, Amazon, Flipkart, and
similar e-commerce channels.
• The company is also present in large format and department stores
such as Shopper’s Stop and Lifestyle.

Jigar Jani Purva Zanwar

Research Analyst Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com purva.zanwar@bksec.com

72
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Recently, the Canteen Stores Department (CSD) approved Tommy Hilfiger luggage, and the first deliveries
have begun.
• A typical Bagline store is about 500 to 600 sq ft in size, with a capex ranging from Rs 3,000 to Rs 3,500 per
sq ft. Overall, the typical investment for a Bagline store is between Rs 3-4 mn. ROI typically is ~18% initially,
with 20-25% achieved over a 5-year period.
• Out of 35 Bagline stores, 15 are franchisee, rest are all company owned. In the next two-three years, the
company wants to take the store count to 100.
Capacity
• The first phase will take about Rs 300 mn for capex (this includes the entire land and a building with a
capacity of 2 extruders). In 4QFY25, the company aims to conduct the first pilot runs. Currently, the plan
is to install one extruder per line for polycarbonate (PC) production. Each extruder provides a monthly
capacity of ~25,000 to 30,000 pieces.
• Typically, asset turns are in the range of 4:1 to 6:1 x.
Sourcing
• For women’s handbags, sourcing is 100% from China.
• Currently, 70% of travel gear and related parts sourcing is from China, while 30% is in India. Over the next
one-two years, the company aims to reverse this ratio by scaling up production in India.
Margin and costs
• Marketing expenditure as a percentage is expected to stabilise at 4% to 5% (8% this year).
• Typically, the EBITDA margins will range between 11-12%. The rest will be re-invested in the business.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 818 713 428 862 1,632 2,506 25.1

EBITDA 82 42 (17) 77 212 277 27.7
PAT 27 (11) (67) 6 95 109 32.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 51.6 54.6 44.2 46.2 47.8 49.6 –

EBITDA margin 10.0 6.0 (4.0) 9.0 13.0 11.0 –
PAT margin 3.3 (1.6) (15.7) 0.7 5.8 4.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.7 –

EPS (Rs) 2.5 (1.0) (6.4) 0.6 9.0 9.8 31.1
BV (Rs) 24.7 22.4 16.7 17.2 26.1 50.1 15.2
RoCE (%) 15.7 5.8 (6.3) 11.3 31.8 25.3 –
RoA (%) 10.0 3.5 (4.1) 7.8 21.3 17.9 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 10.8 (4.4) (32.5) 3.5 41.6 26.1 –

Net profit margin 3.3 (1.6) (15.7) 0.7 5.8 4.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.0 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.2 3.7 3.1 –

73
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data BSE

Price (Rs) 2,694
Increasing capacity to aid volumes
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code BSEL.NS
• Improvement in notional to premium turnover ratio will be the key
Bloomberg code BSE IN
driver for operating leverage. Volume growth will largely be a function
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4,371 of ramping up of colocation facilities.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 31.6 • Single stock derivatives will be launched for 180 scrips with mid-month
Issued shares (mn) 135 expiry on 01 July 2024. This will address the gap in the market, giving
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M traders a unique expiry product. There is also scope for new index
Absolute (3) 14 383 products once traction is achieved with the existing products.

Relative (4) 14 365 • The new single stock derivative product launch will give BSE a chance
to improve the premium-to-notional turnover ratio, as it has higher
Valuation Ratios
premium quality.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Capacity constraints existed earlier with only 100 colocation racks, but
EPS (Rs) 18.1 15.2 33.7
Phase 2 added 100 more racks which are now fully occupied, and a
P/E 148.8 177.4 79.9 significant waiting period exists. Phase 3 has been initiated and should

BVPS (Rs) 206.0 208.9 255.2 come live by the end of 2024 with higher share of the newly introduced
high capacity 15 KVA racks. Costs related to the racks are mostly civil in
P/B 13.1 12.9 10.6
nature.
Major Shareholders (%)
• BSE has removed rental subsidies post Phase 2 and per order basis fee
FPIs 35 model is possible post volumes scale-up.
MFs 9
• The regulator wants all capital market participants to contribute
BFSI’s 4
towards educating and safeguarding retail investors, especially in
Public & Others 52
the F&O segment.
Relative Performance
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

BSE
Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Kartikeya Mohata

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com kartikeya.mohata@bksec.com

74
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

Operating Revenue 4,505 5,014 7,432 8,155 13,900 32.5

Investment Income 1,587 1,291 976 1,093 2,025 6.3
Total Income 6,300 6,547 8,635 9,539 16,179 26.6
Operating Profit 1,525 1,921 2,911 3,359 6,276 42.4
PAT 1,206 1,417 2,449 2,057 7,717 59.0
Revenue Mix (%)
Transaction Charges 18 21 30 25 36 -
Treasury income 4 5 6 9 11 -
Other Securities services 5 8 9 12 11 -
Services to Corporates 34 34 33 30 22 -
Investment Income 25 20 11 11 13 -
Other Income 14 12 10 12 7 -
Profitability Ratios
Operating Margin 24.2 29.3 33.7 35.2 38.8 –
PAT Margin 19.1 21.6 28.4 21.6 47.7 –
RoE 4.5 5.7 9.2 7.3 24.6 –
Valuation Ratios
EPS 26.8 31.5 18.1 15.2 33.7 –
P/E 103.7 88.3 148.8 177.4 79.9 –
BVPS 180.4 185.7 206.0 208.9 255.2 –
P/B 15.4 15.0 13.1 12.9 10.6 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/BSE - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 10 May 24.pdf

75
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data C.E. Info Systems

Price (Rs) 1,920
Play on the mapping space
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CEIF.BO
• C.E. Info Systems (MapmyIndia) is well placed in the realm of mapping,
Bloomberg code MAPMYIND IN
as it operates in various parts of the value chain, providing a wide
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,244 array of offerings, right from map data, to APIs, to software, to IoT.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.1 Any other competitor usually operates in a particular segment. This
Issued shares (mn) 54 ensures a strong position for the company in the ecosystem.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Annual order bookings for MapmyIndia grew by 63% to Rs 8,340 mn
Absolute (4) 6 77 during FY24. The company remains confident of achieving their

Relative (5) 6 59 stated milestone of crossing Rs 10 bn in revenues by FY27/28. Open

order book as on end of FY24 stood at Rs 13,720 mn.
Valuation Ratios
• The company aims to leverage drones and drone tech in a bid to
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
improve their offerings. This could be used for providing property
EPS (Rs) 16.1 20.0 24.4 tax-related solutions for municipalities or aiding the government
+/- (%) 45.8 24.1 21.9 in their plans for development of smart cities. Currently, the drone
business is part of the map-led vertical.
PER (x) 119.1 95.9 78.7
• MapmyIndia’s IoT-led business is akin to a hardware-led SaaS
PBV (x) 23.2 19.1 15.7
business. Growth in sales of devices is expected to translate to high
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 - 0.2 margin SaaS revenue going ahead. The company is well placed
EV/Sales (x) 50.8 35.7 26.6 to cross-sell their products to customers once they come in for a
certain product. In the IoT rental business, margins should move up
EV/EBITDA (x) 118.1 85.2 64.6
as the company now rents products for three years. This is better
Major Shareholders (%) than selling only hardware.
Promoters 53 • The company has grown its customer base over the years. In FY24, the
FPIs 7
company had 880+ customers on MaaS, SaaS and PaaS platforms,
MFs 4
up from 850+ in the previous fiscal. Number of corporate customers
BFSI’s 1
rose from 100+ to 130+ this year, while government customers grew
Public & Others 36
from 30 to 50. This has led to lower revenue concentration, evidenced
Relative Performance by the fact that 71 customers contributed to 80% of revenues in FY24,
2,500
2,400 significantly higher than 35 customers in FY22.
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,000
1,100
800
900
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
Jun-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

CE Info Systems
MapMYIndia
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

76
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 1,353 1,486 1,525 2,004 2,815 3,794 22.9

EBITDA 255 294 514 862 1,179 1,562 43.7
PAT 327 221 597 870 1,080 1,317 32.1
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 18.9 19.7 33.7 43.0 41.9 41.2 –

PAT margin 24.2 14.9 39.1 43.4 38.4 34.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.4) (0.6) (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 6.1 4.1 11.0 16.1 20.0 24.4 –
BV (Rs) 52.7 55.1 66.2 82.5 100.3 121.9 –
RoCE (%) 28.7 10.9 23.4 28.4 27.4 28.4 –
RoA (%) 26.2 9.9 20.7 25.3 24.0 24.6 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 22.9 7.6 18.2 21.6 21.9 21.9 –

Net profit margin 24.2 14.9 39.1 43.4 38.4 34.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/C.E. Info Systems - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 13 May
24.pdf

77
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Can Fin Homes

Price (Rs) 727
Growth execution remains a key monitorable
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CNFH.BO
Growth
Bloomberg code CANF IN
• Management targets disbursements to the tune of Rs 105 bn in FY25,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,161
with Rs 20 bn of disbursements expected in 1QFY25.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.5
• AUM growth target is 15% for FY25. AUM growth is expected to slowly
Issued shares (mn) 133 catch up with disbursement growth, which is anticipated to be
Target price (Rs) 900 around 20% in the medium-term.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Salaried segment in the overall AUM mix will go down to 65% from 73%
Absolute (5) (6) 3 and home loans will go to 80% from 89% in the next three-four years.
Relative (5) (6) (15) • Sourcing is expected to move more towards direct and digital from
Valuation Ratios current 80% DSA sourcing. Targeted sourcing mix is 60% DSA and 40%
Digital + Direct.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The company is putting 250 people for direct sourcing who will
EPS (Rs ) 56.4 63.8 73.4
report directly to the national sales head. Incentives will be based on
BV (Rs ) 326.2 385.0 452.5 the sales targets and the team will also be required to do sourcing
PER (x) 13.2 11.7 10.1 through APF route.

P/BV (x) 2.3 1.9 1.6 • APF route has not seen much success as processes need to be more
simplified for onboarding developers.
Major Shareholders (%)
• BT out rates remain between 3.5-4.0%.
Promoters 30
FPIs 12 • Reintroduction of CLSS will further boost the <Rs 2 mn loan ticket size
MFs 25 as the new CLSS scheme is expected to focus more towards the EWS
BFSI’s 3 + LIG category.
Public & Others 31 Margin

Relative Performance • The company has maintained margin and spread guidance of 3.5%
1,000 and 2.5%, respectively.
900
• There is a further scope to increase LAP yields by 10-15 bps.
800
700 • There is a gap of about 50 bps in lending rates between salaried and
600
500
self-employed.
400 • The AUM mix will gradually change more towards the sub Rs 2 mn
300
loan segment and also towards LAP in the SENP segment which
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

should help offset the lower yields seen in the prime segment.

Can Fin Homes IT project

Sensex (rebased)
• Process changes are almost done so the company should see
normalised business growth.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

78
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• First phase of IT transformation started in January 2024 and should be completed by June 2024. API
integration should be possible post this phase and add more third-party integrations. Upgrade the
existing software and no major disruptions.
• Data audit and data analytics given to a third-party Mumbai-based CA firm on a retainer basis.
• The upgrade of the CBS platform will happen in the next 12 -18 months. The system was last upgraded
in 2011.
• Branch opening will be mainly in the north and west geographies.

Key numbers
(Rs Mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(FY19-FY23) (FY24-26E)

Net Interest Income 5,622 6,863 8,101 8,350 10,423 12,933 14,195 16,372 16.7 12.5

Operating Expense 916 1,053 1,240 1,530 1,765 2,570 2,542 2,964 17.8 7.4

Operating Profit 4,706 5,810 6,861 6,820 8,658 10,363 11,653 13,408 16.5 13.7

PAT 2,967 3,785 4,560 4,711 6,212 7,507 8,501 9,778 20.3 14.1

Shareholder's Fund 17,823 21,501 26,098 30,666 36,473 43,439 51,274 60,253 19.6 17.8

AUM 183,820 207,080 221,050 267,110 315,630 349,990 403,678 468,473 14.5 15.7

Borrowings 166,944 187,484 192,929 246,477 290,681 318,629 366,423 423,219 14.9 15.2

Per Share Data (Rs)

EPS (Rs) 22 28 34 35 47 56 64 73 20.3 14.1

BV (Rs) 134 161 196 230 274 326 385 452 19.6 17.8

Margins(%)

NIMs 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 – –

Return Profile (%)

ROA 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 – –

ROE 18.2 19.2 19.2 16.6 18.5 18.8 18.0 17.5 – –

Asset Quality (%)

GNPA 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 – –

NNPA 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 – –

PCR 30.0 28.8 33.5 52.7 52.3 48.7 50.0 50.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Can Fin Homes - 4QFY24 Result Update - 30 Apr 24.pdf

79
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Caplin Point Laboratories

Price (Rs) 1,290
US business and new complex launches would trigger enhanced
BSE Sensex 73,961 growth trajectory
Reuters code CAPL.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code CLPL IN • Caplin Point’s US business – The company had entered US business
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,174 with B2B model in 2018 and has now created front-end presence with
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.1 B2C model. The company believes it is progressing really well with
Issued shares (mn) 76 licencing and registrations in the US states. The company aims to
launch own labelled product in the US by 2QFY25. They have around
Target price (Rs) 1,660
14 products under active review (received approval for 21 products so
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
far) with the USFDA – out of which, around 3-4 products are expected
Absolute (5) (13) 73
to receive approval in the next few months. The company expects
Relative (5) (13) 54
double-digit growth in the US business, growing manifold from low
Valuation Ratios base (FY24 revenues of Rs 3 bn/US$ 38 mn).
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Cost optimisation and improvement in margins in future – The

Adj. EPS (Rs) 59.9 67.7 78.8

company invested around Rs 6-6.5 bn towards their capex plan
(onco OSD and soft gel commercialised, Sterile plant in progress)
Growth 20.6 13.0 16.4
in expanding sterile injectable capacities and adding new lines.
PER 21.5 19.0 18.8 With expansion in injectables, ophthalmics, oncology products and
Price/Book 4.0 3.2 3.0 plans on eliminating the conventional GPO route (instead intends to
directly reach hospitals, wholesalers, etc. under front presence plan),
Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.2
this is expected to enhance margins upwards towards 33-34%, an
EV/Sales 5.2 4.3 4.2 improvement of 100-200 bps.
EV/EBITDA 16.0 13.2 12.6 • Strong cash position – As they boast a strong cash balance of Rs 9
Major Shareholders (%) bn, this paves way for them to invest in their future growth, without
dampening margins and balance sheet health. Caplin is exploring
Promoters 71
FPIs 3
new areas and progressing well in newer avenues of fill and finish
MFs 1 opportunities, biosimilars, more filings in complex injectables,
Public & Others 25 peptides.
• LatAm deepening presence – The company continues to focus on
Relative Performance
the markets of Brazil and Mexico – as they are among the largest
2,000
regulated markets after US and EU – would increase focus for the next
1,500
two-three years around these markets (including Chile, Colombia).
1,000 They expect meaningful contributions coming in post FY26-27, and
500 target to achieve revenues of US$ 100 mn by 2030.
• New Softgel facility in Puducherry – In May 2024, the company
0
received INVIMA approval for its Softgel capsules division, which
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

marks expansion into larger markets of Columbia and other markets

Caplin Point Laboratories (VC) of Latin America is an important aspect of the company’s growth
Sensex (rebased)
plan.

Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

80
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• CM0 segment – The company remains in a very nascent stage in their CMO business – but continues
to put efforts into its growth as a segment.
• China sourcing for niche products – For growth, the company is in advanced discussions with China
to source value-added products such as insulin, biosimilars, and peptides. These products will then be
utilised for fill and finish in India and exported to other countries of operation.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 6,329 8,445 10,354 12,384 14,538 16,788 19,332 22,165 21.5 14.9
EBITDA 2,313 2,601 3,286 3,947 4,411 5,483 6,328 7,360 18.8 15.9
PAT 1,766 2,150 2,423 2,998 3,769 4,546 5,137 5,977 20.8 14.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 54.4 51.1 54.4 55.0 54.4 55.6 55.8 55.8 – –

EBITDA margin 36.6 30.8 31.7 31.9 30.3 32.7 32.7 33.2 – –

PAT margin 27.9 25.5 23.4 24.2 25.9 27.1 26.6 27.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) – –

EPS (Rs) 23.3 28.3 31.9 39.5 49.7 59.9 67.7 78.8 20.8 14.7
BV (Rs) 83.4 124.9 156.2 195.5 247.7 323.1 406.2 500.4 31.1 24.5
RoCE (%) 43.3 32.2 27.9 27.9 26.2 25.7 22.8 21.4 – –

RoA (%) 36.5 28.9 25.3 24.9 23.0 22.9 20.7 19.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 35.4 27.2 22.7 22.5 22.4 21.0 18.6 17.4 – –

Net profit margin 27.9 25.5 23.4 24.2 25.9 27.1 26.6 27.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Caplin Point Laboratories - 4QFY24 Result Update - 17 May
24.pdf

81
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data CarTrade Tech

Price (Rs) 870
A house of brands
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CART.BO
• CarTrade Tech continues to reign the top spot in automotive
Bloomberg code CARTRADE IN
platforms in India with 70mn average monthly unique visitors across
Market cap. (US$ mn) 492 its multiple platforms including CarWale, BikeWale and the OLX
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.0 business which was acquired in 1QFY24. 90% of these visits happen
Issued shares (mn) 47 organically, leading to increased operating leverage with further
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M moderation in marketing spends.

Absolute 24 10 109 • The Consumer group segment has seen outperformance in FY24 led

Relative 24 10 90 by margin expansions. For FY25, the car industry growth is expected
to be muted around 0-5% albeit on a higher base. The New Cars
Valuation Ratios
segment in the Consumer Group is expected to trend around more
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 than 2x the growth of car industry while also being a factor of digital
EPS (Rs) (25.9) 8.6 17.6 advertising. It must be noted that CarTrade and CarWale brands
both do not end of competing with MOAT in different arenas.
+/- (%) – – 103.1
• Sluggishness in the Auctions and Remarketing business is
PER (x) (33.5) 100.5 49.5
predominantly owing to repossession vehicles supply being down.
PBV (x) 2.1 2.0 2.0 This is inversely linked to economic outlook and uncertainty; and
EV/Sales (x) 10.2 8.6 7.3 thus increasing the retail share is the target to reduce cyclicality.

EV/EBITDA (x) (23.8) 94.8 44.8 • It does not see Cars24 or Spinny, etc., as competition but rather as
large customers. It serves as a discovery place and wants to remain
Major Shareholders (%)
so. We believe this is the apt model.
FPIs 72
• The post-acquisition stabilisation of OLX with respect to technology
MFs 2
transfer, building of right teams and streamlining of the businesses
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 24
has largely been completed. The management is confident about
sustainable growth from this base coupled profitability scale-up led
Relative Performance
by operating leverage.
1,000
900 • Within its Auto classified business in OLX (45% of OLX) largely
800 consisting of cars, the management aims to strategically focus on
700
dealer addition and increasing ARPU per dealer by providing more
600
500 value and increasing the traffic supply. The competitive moat for this
400
business is accounted to unique organic traffic of 30 mn per month
300
leading to strong margins.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Customers/dealers experience synergy benefits across multiple

Cartrade Tech platforms like CarWale, CarTrade, Shriram Automall, and OLX due
Sensex (rebased) to strategic acquisitions. This positions them to offer single-press
listings across all these platforms, which previously was a tedious,
multi-layered process individually.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

82
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY17-24)

Financials

Sales 782 1,236 2,433 2,983 2,497 3,127 3,637 4,899 30.0
EBITDA (532) (253) 295 396 394 (1,342) 330 793 NA
PAT (370) (75) 259 313 1,011 (1,213) 404 821 NA
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin (68.0) (20.5) 12.1 13.3 15.8 (42.9) 9.1 16.2 –

PAT margin (47.4) (6.1) 10.7 10.5 40.5 (38.8) 11.1 16.8 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) (7.9) (1.6) 5.5 6.7 21.6 (25.9) 8.6 17.6 –

BV (Rs) 261.6 258.9 263.3 269.9 359.3 423.2 436.9 442.6 –

RoCE (%) (6.0) (0.3) 2.9 3.1 3.2 (5.7) 3.1 4.8 –

RoA (%) (5.9) (0.2) 2.7 2.9 3.0 (5.4) 3.0 4.4 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (6.1) (0.6) 2.1 2.5 6.9 (6.6) 2.0 4.0 –

Net profit margin (47.4) (6.1) 10.7 10.5 40.5 (38.8) 11.1 16.8 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 –

83
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Castrol India

Price (Rs) 195
Focus on rural penetration and EV
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CAST.BO
• Castrol India (CSTRL) has identified new segments like Aerospace,
Bloomberg code CSTRL IN
sugar and textiles as application of their products which is a
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,312 diversification from their main auto and industrials segment.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 15.7 • The company in their move to diversification is going beyond lubricants
Issued shares (mn) 989 now and are targeting rural market, building CSTRL workshops, oil
Target price (Rs) 230 change service on JIO BP fuel courts. In the last one year they have
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M taken new initiatives to move into the auto-care segment, however

Absolute (8) (6) 74 with a range of low margin products. Competition faced by CSTRL in
Auto-services is 3M India, and in auto care segments it being Pidilite.
Relative (8) (7) 55
• Auto care products are available across more than 30k outlets
Valuation Ratios
nationwide. Additionally, there are plans to introduce new products
Yr to 31 Dec CY23 CY24E CY25E
in the coming months and quarters. The Ki Mobility solutions is also
EPS 8.7 9.5 10.5 progressing well, with the expansion of the network and continuous

+/- (%) 6.0 8.7 10.0 refinement of the go-to-market strategy and business model.
• CSRL aims to grow double than the market which is expected to be
PER 22.3 20.5 18.7
in the range of 4%. However, they expect the CV and PV segments to
PBV 9.1 8.4 7.5
grow higher than two-wheelers and hence value growth is expected
Dividend Yield 3.8 3.9 4.0 to be higher.

EV/Sales 3.6 3.3 3.0 • CSTRL has a global brand of EV fluids under the name of Castrol ON
is a combination of transmission fluids, greases and coolants which
EV/EBITDA 15.1 14.2 12.8
was launched in India about 1.5 years ago. Currently, they supply to
Major Shareholders (%) two of the largest OEMs manufacturing EV passenger cars in India as
Promoters 51 well as a small proportion to the global OEMs. They expect it to grow
FPIs 10 as the EV penetration strengthens domestically.
MFs 2
• The company has identified data center thermal management
BFSI’s 14
solutions, specifically immersion cooling, as a promising global
Public & Others 23
opportunity. They have invested GBP 50 mn in an R&D facility in the
Relative Performance UK focused on this technology and are currently engaged in proof-
250 of-concept stages with various data centre builders and operators.
200 They are actively pursuing partnerships to scale up this business
commercially. Competition in this space is fierce, with major global
150
players involved in or attempting to enter the value chain.
100
• Additionally, the company has also developed a product within its
50
global research team specifically tailored for data centres. This
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

product addresses heat management and offers end-to-end

service orders, showcasing the company’s commitment to providing
Castrol India
Sensex (rebased) comprehensive solutions in this sector.

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

84
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(CY18-23) (CY23-25E)

Financials

Sales 39,046 38,768 29,969 41,921 47,745 50,746 54,768 58,561 5.4 7.4

EBITDA 10,708 11,531 8,141 10,660 11,111 11,979 12,628 13,800 2.3 7.3

PAT 7,061 8,274 5,829 7,582 8,152 8,641 9,395 10,339 4.1 9.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 51.2 54.9 57.7 50.9 47.6 48.0 47.2 46.5 – –

EBITDA margin 27.4 29.7 27.2 25.4 23.3 23.6 23.1 23.6 – –

PAT margin 18.1 21.3 19.4 18.1 17.1 17.0 17.2 17.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.6) (0.7) (0.9) (0.8) (0.7) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) – –

EPS (Rs) 7.1 8.4 5.9 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.5 10.5 4.1 9.4

BV (Rs) 11.8 13.8 14.3 16.6 19.1 21.5 23.4 26.0 12.7 10.0

RoCE (%) 99.0 89.4 55.7 66.2 60.6 57.2 55.1 55.1 – –

RoA (%) 53.7 53.0 34.2 40.5 38.0 36.6 35.1 35.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 64.6 65.3 41.9 49.6 46.2 43.1 42.4 42.4 – –

Net profit margin 18.1 21.3 19.4 18.1 17.1 17.0 17.2 17.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Castrol India - 1QCY24 Result Update - 02 May 24.pdf

85
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data CCL Products (India)

Price (Rs) 573
Remains confident on its volume growth for the next two-three
BSE Sensex 73,961 years; high coffee prices led challenges are transitionary
Reuters code CCLP.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code CCLP IN Medium-term growth looks promising with anticipated volume
Market cap. (US$ mn) 917 growth of 18-20% subject to coffee prices stabilising
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 • Despite the significant increase in coffee prices, consumption of
Issued shares (mn) 134 coffee has remained steady. However, due to price fluctuations, the
duration of contracts with customers has decreased from six-nine
Target price (Rs) 706
months to four-five months. Customers are hesitant to provide long-
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
term visibility on offtake. In a more stable pricing environment (two
Absolute (3) (9) (10) years ago), the company has signed long-term offtake agreements
Relative (3) (9) (28) of up to 24 months.
Valuation Ratios • Volume growth in the near-term is expected to range from 10-12% to
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E 18-20%, depending on coffee prices stabilising. The company is also
expanding its business in USA, partnering with Ground Uttar Pradesh,
EPS (Rs) 18.8 22.3 28.2
and in Eastern China, in collaboration with a long-term associate.
+/- (%) (11.9) 18.8 26.4 • With Brazil, Indonesia and Uganda’s new crop harvests underway,
PER (x) 30.5 25.6 20.3 the company expects the coffee prices to stabilise in the near future
as the current levels are not sustainable.
PBV (x) 4.6 3.9 3.4
Branded business projected to grow at 30-40% in FY25
EV/Sales (x) 3.4 2.9 2.4
• Out of the domestic revenue of ~Rs 3,200 mn in FY24, branded sales
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.4 16.7 13.5
amounted to ~Rs 2,100 mn. The business is expected to grow at a CAGR
Major Shareholders (%) of 30-40% over the next few years.
Promoters 46 CCL Products (India) (CCL) will be ploughing back the profits from this
FPIs 8 business into expanding it further. Hence this business is not expected
MFs 21 to contribute to the consolidated PAT from the next two-three years
BFSI’s 1 perspective.
Public & Others 24 • Currently, CCL is holding a market share of 4-4.5% in South India and
Relative Performance is the third-largest player in the region. Going forward, the company
800
aims to maintain and further expand its market share, with a focus on
700 South India.
600 • The company boasts 1.5 lakh retail touchpoints, with 85,000 located in
500
South India and the remainder in North and West India. CCL also has
400
300 presence across various e-commerce platforms, which contributes
200 ~35% to the branded sales.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Capacity expansion to be completed by end of 1HFY25

• The greenfield SDC capacity in India has been commercialised in
CCL Products India March 2024 and the Vietnam FDC capacity is expected to commence
Sensex (rebased)
operations in September-October 2024.

Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain

Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

86
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

With these capacity expansions, the total production capacity is expected to reach 77,000 tonnes from
2HFY25.
• The company does not anticipate to further expand its capacities for the next three-four years.
• The current capacity utilisation of India capacity (excluding the Tirupur greenfield expansion
commercialised in March 2024) is at 100%, whereas capacity utilisation in Vietnam is at 65-70%.
Working capital to primarily drive the debt levels going ahead; interest cost optimisation being looked at
• The company’s debt levels have increased threefold in the last three years. Currently, the long-term debt
stands at ~Rs 6,000 mn, while short-term debt is at ~Rs 10,000 mn. Short-term debt is projected to increase
in tandem with volume growth if coffee prices remain at current levels.
• The working capital requirement is expected to increase going forward, due to the combination of higher
coffee prices and increased production volumes. However, the company expects the working capital
related debt to be within manageable levels, as it is backed by visible order book.
• For the two new projects, CCL has secured Rs 6,500 mn loan, of which Rs 4,500 mn was utilised in FY24. The
remaining Rs 2,000 mn is anticipated to be drawn in FY25 as part of a term loan.
• On the interest cost, the company is assessing other countries where they have operations such as
Vietnam and Switzerland as the cost of capital is lower as compared to India.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 10,814 11,392 12,428 14,620 20,712 26,537 31,032 36,150 20 17
EBITDA 2,455 2,859 2,981 3,311 3,999 4,453 5,343 6,443 13 20
PAT 1,549 1,659 1,826 2,044 2,840 2,500 2,971 3,755 10 23
Margin (%)
Gross margin 44.8 50.9 52.5 50.6 45.5 41.5 41.2 41.5 – –
EBITDA margin 22.7 25.1 24.0 22.6 19.3 16.8 17.2 17.8 – –
PAT margin 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.0 13.7 9.4 9.6 10.4 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 – –

EPS (Rs) 11.6 12.5 13.7 15.4 21.4 18.8 22.3 28.2 10 23
BVPS (Rs) 63.1 69.8 81.7 94.0 112.6 125.9 145.2 170.4 15 16
RoCE (%) 18.5 18.6 16.9 15.5 15.3 12.1 12.0 13.1 – –
RoA (%) 17.0 16.6 15.3 14.4 14.5 11.5 11.4 12.4 – –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 19.6 18.8 18.1 17.5 20.7 15.8 16.5 17.9 – –
Net Profit margin 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.0 13.7 9.4 9.6 10.4 – –
Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/CCL Products (India) - 4QFY24 Result Update - 14 May
24.pdf

87
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Century Plyboards (India)

Price (Rs) 649
Scaling up amid sluggish environment...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CNTP.BO
• Century Plyboards (India) has provided guidance indicating a period
Bloomberg code CPBI IN
of subdued demand and realisations in the near-term, coupled with
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,729 pricing pressures on its key raw material, timber.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.5 • Additionally, the MDF industry is currently facing an oversupply
Issued shares (mn) 222 situation, which is expected to keep prices low for the next few
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M quarters.
Absolute 2 (8) 17 • Despite these challenges, Centuryply forecasts double-digit topline
Relative 2 (8) (2) growth, driven by increased volumes across its various product
segments and higher utilisation across plants. The company
Valuation Ratios
anticipates that margins for its plywood segment will be in the range
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
of 12-14%, while laminates are expected to yield margins of 10-12%. For
EPS (Rs) 14.1 17.2 14.7 the MDF segment, the company projects margins of around 15%.
+/- (%) 54.0 22.4 (14.9) • A significant development for Centuryply is the upcoming laminates

PER (x) 46.3 37.8 44.4 plant in Andhra Pradesh, which will primarily focus on exports. The
company expects that margins for these export-oriented laminates
PBV (x) 9.3 7.6 6.5
will be slightly higher compared to domestic sales.
Div./Yield (%) 8.6 7.0 8.2
• In terms of capacity expansion, Centuryply plans to increase its
EV/Sales (x) 4.8 4.0 3.8 plywood production capacity by 10% through debottlenecking at

EV/EBITDA (x) 27.2 26.0 28.6 existing plants, which should result in higher volumes. In 4QFY24, the
capacity utilisation for plywood was at 87%. Although plywood prices
Major Shareholders (%)
have been under pressure, the company is planning to mitigate this
Promoters 73 by implementing price hikes and making changes to its product mix
FPIs 6
to pass on costs to consumers.
MFs 13
• The company is focusing on ramping up capacity utilisation for its
BFSI’s 1
MDF segment, particularly at the recently commissioned Andhra
Public & Others 7
Pradesh plant. The company aims to achieve optimal utilisation
Relative Performance across all its MDF plants by FY26.
900
• Despite near-term challenges, the company remains optimistic
800
about sustainable volume growth over the medium-term with
700
commissioning of incremental capacity, increasing demand from
600
OEMs and strong demand drivers from the infrastructure sector.
500
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Century Plyboards India

Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

88
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 22,804 23,170 21,304 30,270 36,466 38,860 11.2

EBITDA 3,016 2,797 3,237 5,309 5,587 5,208 11.5
PAT 1,502 1,470 1,986 3,132 3,953 3,264 16.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 49.5 49.9 51.2 50.4 47.5 47.6 –

EBITDA margin 13.2 12.1 15.2 17.5 15.3 13.4 –
PAT margin 6.6 6.3 9.3 10.3 10.8 8.4 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.5 0.2 (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.2 –

EPS (Rs) 6.7 5.6 8.6 14.1 17.3 14.7 17.1
BV (Rs) 43.8 49.0 57.0 70.0 86.0 99.4 17.8
RoCE (%) 16.9 14.9 19.2 29.5 26.1 18.3 –
RoA (%) 8.5 8.5 11.4 15.5 16.0 15.0 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 16.3 12.1 16.2 22.2 22.1 15.8 –

Net profit margin 6.6 6.3 9.3 10.3 10.8 8.4 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 –

89
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Century Textiles and Industries

Price (Rs) 2,019
Activity in Birla Estates progressing well
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CNTY.BO
Real estate
Bloomberg code CENT IN
• Birla Estates remains focused on residential segment and also
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,703
opportunistically looking at commercial deals if any attractive
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.4 opportunity is available. Also, it can potentially look at plotted
Issued shares (mn) 112 development as an opportunistic play for good turnaround.
Target price (Rs) 2,247 • On the back of strong response in FY24 as well as healthy inventory
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M pipeline/launch visibility, the company has upgraded its FY25
Absolute 1 43 153 bookings guidance to Rs 80 bn (from Rs 50-60 bn) which implies 100%
Relative 1 43 135 YoY growth and is impressive.
• At Birla Niyaaara P-2, the company is continuing to see healthy
Valuation Ratios
demand momentum.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24P FY25E FY26E
• Birla Estates would likely launch 9 projects/phases in FY25 having
EPS (Rs) 26.4 33.8 56.2
GDV worth Rs 120 bn to achieve its bookings guidance. These include
+/- (%) 80.6 28.1 66.0 Walkeshwar, RR Nagar, Pune, Trimaya (incremental phases), NCR, etc.
PER (x) 76.5 45.7 27.5 • The company expects to add projects worth Rs 150-200 bn (outright/
JDA) in FY25 across its core markets with focus on Delhi-NCR and
PBV (x) 5.7 4.0 3.5
Pune. Further, it aims to maintain this annual addition rate in the
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.1 0.1
coming years to build healthy inventory pipeline.
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 4.4 3.8 • It is already closer to finalising a large deal.
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.8 22.7 16.3 • Demand is much more than the supply in core markets – the reason
Major Shareholders (%) is players operating in the markets are fewer than earlier, which is
regulating the supply.
Promoters 50
FPIs 9 • Residential landscape has become competitive as many players
MFs 15 are looking to add land/JD deals to build inventory pipeline. Land
BFSI’s 2 prices have become firmer and getting more and more pricier,
Public & Others 25 but the company is looking at parcels in the targeted markets and
considering both outright as well as JD deals.
Relative Performance
2,500 • The company is looking to increase project addition substantially in
2,000 Pune and NCR markets. In the NCR market, it has stepped up pursuing
1,500 new deals. Land prices have sharply increased and there is paucity
1,000 of new land parcels. However, few deals can be added in the current
500 year.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Century Textiles & Industries

Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Paper
• Supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea/Suez Canal have contributed to increase in prices of key raw
materials.
• Increasing price of Imported Pulp and challenges in wood availability have also impacted cost of
production.
• Procurement of wood and power cost led to lower profitability in 4QFY24.
• The company has taken various corrective measures like technology upgradation, production
enhancement and other cost reduction initiatives to reduce cost of production and expects EBITDA @
Rs 12-13/kg in FY25, which would be gradually increased to Rs 15.
Textiles
• The Board has approved the proposal for discontinuation of complete operations of the division.
Accordingly, a net loss of Rs 1.4 bn has been recognised in 4QFY24 (Rs 2.5 bn in FY24).
Balance sheet
• The company has net debt of Rs 20.5 bn. Based on current set of planned launches and planned, there
will be additional requirement of Rs 3-4 bn. Hence, net debt will increase to ~Rs 25 bn, which is the
comfortable range.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 36,333 33,314 25,674 40,684 47,193 42,640 45,053 51,590 3.3 10.0
EBITDA 9,512 5,649 2,237 4,445 5,273 6,612 8,677 11,908 (7.0) 34.2
PAT 4,995 3,829 (119) 1,590 1,633 2,950 3,779 6,275 (10.0) 45.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 48.6 46.9 43.8 40.0 42.4 38.4 43.4 43.6 – –

EBITDA margin 26.2 17.0 8.7 10.9 11.2 15.5 19.3 23.1 – –

PAT margin 7.7 15.0 14.9 (0.3) 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 – –

EPS (Rs) 44.7 34.3 (1.1) 14.2 14.6 26.4 33.8 56.2 (10.0) 45.8
BV (Rs) 294.9 311.5 313.8 333.0 348.0 356.3 386.5 439.1 3.9 11.0
RoCE (%) 12.9 6.9 1.0 4.6 5.7 8.0 9.5 12.8 – –

RoA (%) 10.5 5.8 0.8 3.6 4.1 5.4 6.4 8.2 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 16.5 11.3 NA 4.4 4.3 7.5 9.1 13.6 – –

Net profit margin 7.7 15.0 14.9 (0.3) 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Century Textiles and Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update -
07 May 24.pdf

91
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data CESC

Price (Rs) 147
Renewable plans offer an exciting roadmap
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CESC.BO
• CESC is transitioning from a dividend stock to a growth stock by
Bloomberg code CESC IN
channeling its capex into solar power, hydrogen electrolysers, and
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,336 plans to gradually phase out thermal generation.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 14.9 • The company is exploring substantial investments in renewable
Issued shares (mn) 1,326 energy generation, potentially up to 3 GW of capacity, through its
Target price (Rs) 171 subsidiaries across multiple states in India.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • CESC currently has 250 acres of land in Bikaner and is in the advanced
Absolute (0) 16 112 stage of acquiring an additional 2,000 acres. Additionally, CESC is
Relative (0) 16 94 planning a solar-wind hybrid portfolio in Gujarat.
• The shift to solar may not immediately impact earnings as it replaces
Valuation Ratios
thermal in a regulated business. However, the improved quality of
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY25E
earnings and reduced reliance on the “approved asset” model is likely
EPS 10.9 12.2 14.8 to re-rate the company’s valuations, which were previously dampened
Change (%) 3.6 12.6 20.6 by regulatory income and delays in tariff orders.

PER (x) 13.5 12.0 10.0 • Beyond renewables, CESC has appointed BCG to implement long-
term fixed cost reduction measures, potentially saving Rs 3-4 bn over
PBV(x) 1.7 1.6 1.4
time.
Yield (%) 3.1 3.4 3.7
• The assets for generating and distributing power in the Kolkata circle
EV/Sales (x) 2.1 2.0 2.0 provide a reliable source of cash flow and contribute to a high RoE for
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 10.5 9.4 CESC.
• By utilising its own Renewable Energy sources and implementing
Major Shareholders (%)
fixed cost reduction measures, CESC aims to enhance operational
Promoters 52
efficiency and reduce expenses.
FPIs 13
MFs 15 • The company seeks to make its earnings more transparent and closely
BFSI’s 6 aligned with cash flows, minimising the reliance on regulatory income
Public & Others 14 to boost profits.

Relative Performance
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

CESC
Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Somnath Saha

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com somnath.saha@bksec.com

92
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 106,641 121,590 116,390 125,440 142,460 152,930 165,143 171,058 7.5 5.8

EBITDA 28,155 31,440 31,860 29,170 21,490 21,260 31,865 36,651 (5.5) 31.3

PAT 11,981 13,090 13,630 14,050 13,970 14,470 16,294 19,651 3.8 16.5

Margin (%)

Gross margin 47.94 47.01 49.09 45.71 35.81 37.37 40.89 42.41 – –

EBITDA margin 26.40 25.86 27.37 23.25 15.08 13.90 19.30 21.43 – –

PAT margin 11.23 10.77 11.71 11.20 9.81 9.46 9.87 11.49 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 9.0 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.8 12.0 13.9 3.8 13.4

BV (Rs) 67.4 70.6 74.1 78.0 81.9 88.2 95.3 103.7 5.5 8.4

RoCE (%) 8.2 8.9 8.7 7.4 4.8 4.9 6.7 7.1 – –

RoA (%) 6.8 7.3 7.2 6.3 4.2 4.3 6.0 6.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 13.8 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.1 12.9 13.7 15.1 – –

Net profit margin 11.2 10.8 11.7 11.2 9.8 9.5 9.9 11.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/CESC - 4QFY24 Result Update - 24 May 24.pdf

93
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Cholamandalam Investment and Finance

Price (Rs) 1,241 Company
BSE Sensex 73,961
Growth to remain strong; margins to improve in FY25
Reuters code CHLA.BO
Key highlights
Bloomberg code CIFC IN
Growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 12,496
• Overall, AUM growth will be in the range of 25-30% for FY25 possibly
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 25.2
towards the upper end.
Issued shares (mn) 840
• Vehicle Finance will be eventually 50% of the AUM, HL + LAP will be 30%
Target price (Rs) 1,600
and New businesses will be 20% in three-five years.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• Used and Lights/Small will grow at 30%+ but some segments like
Absolute 4 14 18
Passenger cars, CE will grow at 15%. Overall VF will grow at 20%+.
Relative 4 14 (0)
• Lights and Small CV expected to do well as rural demand has slightly
Valuation Ratios picked UP and focus will shift to the same. Tractor and two-wheeler is
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E also expected to do well as rural economy picks up.

EPS (Rs) 40.1 54.6 70.6 • SRTOs did not purchase new CV due to higher prices and started
purchasing BS IV vehicles which were sold by large fleet operators.
BVPS (Rs) 232.7 285.2 371.5
This has helped the company as used CV have higher yields.
P/E (x) 31.0 22.7 17.6
• The company won’t aggressively pursue new HCV as it brings down
P/BV (x) 5.3 4.3 3.3 yields.

Major Shareholders (%) Underwriting

Promoters 50 • Aadhaar Card, Pan Card, Bank Account, Address Proof in the name
FPIs 26 of the borrower are required for approving a loan and nobody is
MFs 14 approving two-wheeler loans based on only PAN card.
BFSI’s 3 • Business Decision Models similar to VF is being developed for all other
Public & Others 7
businesses and building up as the data builds up.
Relative Performance Margins
1,500
1,400 • The company could see a 30-bps expansion in NIM in the Vehicle
1,300
1,200 Finance business as the company largely has a fixed rate book. Rest
1,100
1,000
of the businesses have already repriced in terms of yields.
900
800
• Incremental cost of borrowing is expected to remain near the current
700
600
levels.
400
500
• Banks are expected to remain the major source of funding at 40-50%
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
Jun-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

as they offer a very competitive rate. The company will look to add
Chola Finance
Cholamandalam more ECB financing, market debt and public debt.
Sensex (rebased)
Investment and… • Talking with multilateral firm to do US$ 300 mn of fund raise which will
happen in 2QFY24 or 3QFY24.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Competition is more regional in the housing finance business. The company will look at yields of 15% and
spreads of around 6% for the housing finance business.
• Accumulated insurance income came in for the housing finance business for the past three quarters
resulting in higher yields in the housing finance business.
Return ratios
• Blended PBT RoTA expected to be in the range of 3.5-4.0% and has headroom for further improvement of
50-70 bps as new businesses scale-up and improve in terms of profitability. SBPL RoA can go up to 5-6%,
CSEL RoA can go up to 5%, SME RoA can go up to 2.5-2.6%.
• Credit rating upgrade could take some time. Probably, the concern is on D/E which is expected to be 5x
which may not be favourable for other stakeholders.
• AAA rating will bring in wider set of investors.
• RoE to be maintained above 20%+ with leverage of 6-7x.
Others
• Collection infrastructure is in-house as it provides more control over the quality of the collection processes,
thereby keeping the employee headcount high.
• As the company grows the new business segment, it might look at outsourcing collections for this business.

Key numbers
(Rs Mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)
Net Interest Income 34,039 40,607 49,437 58,400 72,292 99,857 132,632 170,390 20.7 30.6
Operating Expense 12,696 15,776 15,834 20,687 27,799 40,818 51,683 64,221 21.6 25.4
Operating Profit 21,344 24,831 33,603 37,712 44,494 59,039 80,948 106,169 20.2 34.1
PAT 11,862 10,524 15,149 21,467 26,662 34,228 46,676 60,323 22.4 32.8
Shareholder's Fund 61,757 81,718 95,603 117,077 142,960 195,565 239,678 317,438 23.3 27.4
AUM 542,790 605,490 699,960 769,070 1,064,980 1,455,720 1,855,450 2,326,037 18.4 26.4
Borrowings 506,937 550,054 638,574 693,431 973,561 1,344,736 1,728,599 2,126,177 17.7 25.7
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Rs) 15 13 18 26 32 40 55 71 20.9 32.8
BV (Rs) 79 100 117 143 174 233 285 372 21.8 26.3
Margins (%)
NIMs 7.0 7.1 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 – –
Return Profile (%)
ROA 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 – –
ROE 21.0 14.7 17.1 20.2 20.5 20.2 21.4 21.7 – –
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 2.7 3.9 4.0 7.0 4.7 3.5 2.8 2.7 – –
NNPA 1.7 2.3 2.2 4.9 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 – –
PCR 38.0 41.5 44.3 30.4 33.8 35.5 40.3 38.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company -
4QFY24 Result Update - 02 May 24.pdf

95
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data CIE Automotive India

Price (Rs) 533
Working on Europe +1 strategy
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MAFR.BO
• There has been growth of 37% in topline for the last two years. It
Bloomberg code CIEINDIA IN
is expected that 2QCY24 is going to be better than 1QCY24, with
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,422 expectations of outperformance in 2HCY24.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.0 • Annual capex is guided to be 5% of the sales and the growth capex
Issued shares (mn) 379 focus is more towards the domestic side of business than Europe.
Target price (Rs) n/a Additionally, the company is also planning to invest in more capacity,
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M especially in higher value technologies like gear grinding technology.

Absolute 9 21 17 With relation to the composite business expected to grow rapidly

at 20-30% for CY24, they are expanding by building a new plant, a
Relative 8 21 (1)
new shed, and a new machinery.
Valuation Ratios
• The revenue generation from India EVs 1-2% of sales, and it is expected
Yr to 31 Dec CY21 CY22 CY23
that the pace of EV penetration in India would be gradual. However,
EPS (Rs) 10.7 17.7 29.7 customer acceptability is there in the two-wheeler segment for EVs,

+/- (%) 282.1 64.7 67.7 and scooters and three-wheelers are completely replaceable with
EVs.
PER (x) 49.6 30.1 18.0
• Crankshaft and drivelines are currently being supplied to Europe.
PBV (x) 3.9 4.0 3.4
The European market is expected to grow at 3-5% next year with
Div./Yield (%) – 0.5 0.9 17% margins. Pertaining to the US markets, there is cyclicality in metal

EV/Sales (x) 3.6 3.1 2.3

casting business.
• India has a range which can cater to medium sized OEMs, and the
EV/EBITDA (x) 43.0 22.4 17.5
focus is on shifting iron castings to India to make it a sourcing hub.
Major Shareholders (%) The decision on making India as a sourcing hub lies primarily with
Promoters 66 the OEMs.
FPIs 5
• The company is actively pursuing the development of aluminium
MFs 17
forging technology in Europe, with investments already made and
BFSI’s 1
production underway for certain components. They are continuing
Public & Others 11
to work with customers and anticipate further growth in this area.
Relative Performance Additionally, they are diversifying into steel forging components,
600 particularly for battery packs, and have a significant project
500 underway with a key European customer. This expansion of product
400 offerings reflects their preparation for future industry shifts.
300
• The company had projected growth in the next few years, particularly
200
in electrification. However, due to delays in implementing Euro 7
100
norms by the European Commission until mid-2027, the electrification
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

process in Europe is slowing down which would continue the ICE and
standard cars production, delaying the adoption of electrification.
CIE Automotive India
Sensex (rebased) Consequently, the company anticipates it will take around four-five

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

years to see significant growth in new components related to electrification, as the current trend in
Europe indicates a slowdown compared to previous years.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CAGR (%)
(CY19-23)
Financials

Sales 79,078 60,501 67,651 87,530 92,803 4.1

EBITDA 9,677 5,016 9,417 11,719 14,239 10.1
PAT 3,564 1,066 3,958 6,712 11,251 33.3
Margin (%)

Gross margin 52.6 53.6 50.7 45.4 47.1 –

EBITDA margin 12.2 8.3 13.9 13.4 15.3 –
PAT margin 4.5 1.8 6.0 7.7 12.1 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 9.3 2.8 10.7 17.7 29.7 33.5
BV (Rs) 122.3 129.5 137.1 134.4 157.8 6.6
RoCE (%) 10.6 3.5 9.6 13.2 16.9 –
RoA (%) 7.9 2.7 7.3 9.4 12.0 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 7.6 2.2 7.6 13.0 18.8 –

Net profit margin 4.5 1.8 6.0 7.7 12.1 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data City Union Bank

Price (Rs) 143
Banking Innovation: Retail Products, Growth Dynamics, and
BSE Sensex 73,961 Efficiency Drive
Reuters code CTBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code CUBK IN We met Mr N. Kamakodi, MD&CEO, Mr R. Vijay Anandh, Executive Director,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,270 K Jayaraman, Compliance Officer, City Union Bank at our Trinity
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.0 Conference. Following are the KTAs of the meeting:
Issued shares (mn) 741 Launch of new retail loan products
Target price (Rs) 160 • The bank would be starting with several retail products. Housing loans,
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M affordable housing loans, LAP & Micro LAP, and some unsecured retail
Absolute (11) 6 14 products are in the later stage. These loan products would become
8-10% of the credit by FY27.
Relative (11) 6 (4)
• There is no DSA-related business sourcing.
Valuation Ratios
Deposit and credit growth:
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Deposit growth would not be an impediment for credit growth.
Adj. EPS (Rs) 13.7 13.4 12.6
• The bank would provide credit growth guidance post one-two quarters.
BVPS (Rs) 113.4 126.8 139.3
• There are no constraints now; the run down in KCC, agriculture gold
Adj. Book 103.4 118.3 129.3 loans of Rs 40 bn is completely done.
NAV/share (Rs)
• The bank loses 1.5-2.0% of its customers every year due to a rise in
PER (x) 10.5 10.7 11.4
customer loan average ticket size.
Price/Book (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 New loan origination system and reduction in turnaround time:
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1 • TAT in loan approval in ticket size below 75 mn would come down
Div. Yield (%) 1.1 0.9 0.9 significantly.

Major Shareholders (%) • Returns on investments would be visible from 2HFY25.

FPIs 27 Operating expenses

MFs 25 • BCG project related cost is around 2-3% of cost-income ratio.
BFSI’s 5 Progression in profitability
Public & Others 44
• There is no big issue in margin (NIM) in FY25 over FY24.
Relative Performance • EBLR/MCLR shares are at 50/50. There could be some impacts on
220 margin as the repo rates are cut.
200
180
Asset quality progression and Provision coverage ratio
160 • PCR would continue to be at the same level. The bank has already
140
made 5-8% extra NPA provisions.
120
100 • The bank would come back to NNPA of 145-150 bps in one-two quarters.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Gross slippages would come down by Rs 1.0-1.5 bn in FY25 (over FY24).

• Recovery could remain the same in FY25.
City Union Bank
Sensex (rebased) • The bank’s LGD 20-25%, therefore, the bank would not raise PCR.

Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Miscellaneous
• Branch addition would be at 50-75 in FY25.
• The bank awaits some clarity is on the ECL front.
• The bank may not get tax refunds.
• In the textile sector, export hasn’t picked up.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 16,115 16,752 18,297 19,165 21,628 21,235 23,113 25,782 5.7 10.2
Operating Expense 8,859 10,137 10,506 10,803 11,552 13,484 15,244 16,753 8.8 11.5
Operating Profit 12,400 13,414 14,838 16,061 18,180 15,167 15,834 17,585 4.1 7.7
PAT 6,828 4,763 5,928 7,602 9,375 10,157 9,894 9,296 8.3 (4.3)
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 48,408 52,961 58,425 65,857 74,572 84,014 93,908 103,204 11.7 10.8
Advances 326,733 339,274 361,578 403,585 430,533 455,257 511,080 563,432 6.9 11.2
Deposits 384,479 408,325 445,374 476,897 523,979 556,566 616,662 674,291 7.7 10.1
Total Assets 452,588 497,335 533,117 615,309 665,946 708,259 786,009 860,691 9.4 10.2
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 9 6 8 10 13 14 13 13 8.1 (4.3)
BV 66 72 79 89 101 113 127 139 11.5 10.8
ABV 60 63 67 77 90 103 118 129 11.5 11.8
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1
ROE 15.2 9.4 10.6 12.2 13.4 12.8 11.1 9.4
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 3.0 4.1 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.2 3.5
NNPA 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.7
PCR 39.5 44.9 43.2 38.4 47.0 51.5 53.3 53.4
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 15.0 15.8 18.7 19.8 21.3 22.8 21.9 21.8
Total cap. adequacy 15.6 16.8 19.7 20.9 21.4 23.8 22.9 22.8

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/City Union Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 20 May 24.pdf

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Share Data Colgate-Palmolive (India)

Price (Rs) 2,657
Premiumisation and marketing continues to be key pillars for
BSE Sensex 73,961 growth
Reuters code COLG.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code CLGT IN • Portfolio diversification: Along with organic growth, Colgate
Market cap. (US$ mn) 8,663 remains open to exploring inorganic opportunities to grow the non-
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 11.6 toothpaste portfolio. Colgate India will look to bring more categories
Issued shares (mn) 272 from the global portfolio to the domestic market. Though progress
here will be gradual, the non-toothpaste portfolio remains a huge
Target price (Rs) 2,240
optionality.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• The parent company’s focus on India has moved up materially. India
Absolute (6) 6 68
is among the top three focus markets. There is reasonable freedom
Relative (6) 5 49
now for Colgate India to take India-specific measures, including
Valuation Ratios exploring inorganic opportunities, required to drive growth.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Segment-wise commentary: While the Naturals category does have
EPS (Rs) 48.7 53.8 59.8 its customer base, growth in the category has plateaued after the
Covid-led bump up. On the other hand, the solutions category has
+/- (%) 26.4 10.5 11.1
been picking and is doing relatively better now.
PER (x) 54.3 49.2 44.3
• Current operating environment: Colgate-Palmolive (India) (CLGT)
PBV (x) 38.4 38.0 32.6 is seeing some recovery in the rural markets. Although, the volume
Div./Yield (%) 1.8 1.8 1.8 growth is still not at the desired level, consumer traction is improving
gradually. After lagging for some time, CLGT has regained its market
EV/Sales (x) 12.4 11.4 10.3
leadership position in Uttar Pradesh. The company has regained some
EV/EBITDA (x) 37.1 34.0 30.6
market share in the toothbrush segment as well.
Major Shareholders (%) • Premiumisation is one of the strategic growth pillars for CLGT. The
Promoters 51 company is moving up the price ladder across its portfolio. SKUs at
FPIs 25 the Rs 5 price point are no longer there. The Rs 20 SKUs is performing
MFs 3 the best for CLGT. 6-8% of the total portfolio is growing in double-digits.
BFSI’s 3
• Marketing and Communication remain key levers for CLGT. The
Public & Others 18
company will continue to be aggressive with its advertising and
Relative Performance marketing spends. CLGT will also focus on better and effective on-
3,000 ground communication through product trials and door-to-door
2,500 activations.

2,000 Miscellaneous

1,500 • Colgate Strong Teeth and Max Fresh have come with improved
formulations.
1,000
• Operating efficiencies are expected to aid EBITDA margin by ~100 bps
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

annually.
Colgate-Palmolive India
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 44,624 45,251 48,412 50,998 52,262 56,804 61,907 68,139 4.9 9.5

EBITDA 12,361 12,017 15,096 15,659 15,470 19,008 20,809 22,988 9.0 10.0

PAT 7,512 8,165 10,354 10,783 10,471 13,237 14,629 16,254 12.0 10.8

Margin (%)

Gross margin 65.1 65.2 68.0 67.3 65.7 69.7 69.7 69.9 – –

EBITDA margin 27.7 26.6 31.2 30.7 29.6 33.5 33.6 33.7 – –

PAT margin 16.8 18.0 21.4 21.1 20.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.3) (0.7) (0.4) (0.5) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) – –

EPS (Rs) 27.6 30.0 38.1 39.6 38.5 48.7 53.8 59.8 – –

BV (Rs) 53.2 58.6 42.9 63.8 63.1 68.9 69.5 81.1 – –

RoCE (Rs) 70.6 63.6 90.2 91.4 78.8 96.2 99.5 101.3 – –

RoA (Rs) 42.9 40.3 49.4 48.8 49.3 59.4 60.7 63.3 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 50.6 53.7 75.0 74.4 60.7 73.7 77.7 79.3 – –

Net profit margin 16.8 18.0 21.4 21.1 20.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Colgate-Palmolive (India) - 4QFY24 Result Update - 15
May 24.pdf

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Share Data Computer Age Management Services

Price (Rs) 3,480
Sustainable Equity AUM
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code COMU.BO
• The SIP base remains strong, and the growth in Equity AUM looks
Bloomberg code CAMS IN
sustainable. Flows in the liquid category remain volatile, while the debt
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,052 category has seen slow growth in flows.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.4 • Yield compression due to telescopic pricing will be offset by operational
Issued shares (mn) 49 efficiency, leading to a steady yield at the profitability level.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Digitalisation has helped RTAs strengthen, as the integration of
Absolute 9 13 57 processes created by an RTA is not available elsewhere. CAMS still has
Relative 9 13 39 280 front offices because paper transactions still take place (~10%).

Valuation Ratios • Computer Age Management Services (CAMS) plans to fully automate
its AIF segment by next year, while also providing analytics services.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The Account Aggregator segment is seeing traction.
EPS 58.6 58.1 71.6
• Think360 has been built to analyse messages and picture an
P/E 59.5 60.0 48.7
individual’s financial position. It will also do spend analysis.
BVPS 131.9 159.4 186.5 • KRA, AIF/PMS are profitable business segments apart from the MF
P/B 26.4 21.8 18.7 segment; other business segments are still expected to turn profitable
within three-four years. CAMS is also looking for inorganic growth
EV 169,365 169,349 168,762
opportunities.
EV/EBITDA 39.9 40.2 33.4

EV/Sales 18.3 17.0 14.3

Major Shareholders (%)

FPIs 54
MFs 13
BFSI’s 7
Public & Others 26

Relative Performance
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
Jun-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Computer
Computer Age Age Mgmt.
Management Serv.
Services
Sensex (rebased)
Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

Revenue from operations 6,936 6,996 7,055 9,097 9,718 11,365 13

Other Income 181 212 298 173 268 406 18

Total Income 7,117 7,209 7,353 9,269 9,986 11,772 13

Employee benefits 2,746 2,580 2,624 3,218 3,581 3,972 11

Other Expenses 2,011 1,550 1,471 1,638 1,925 2,345 11

Total Expenses 5,044 4,740 4,608 5,443 6,185 7,103 11

Operating profit 2,357 2,981 3,179 4,343 4,404 5,373 16

PAT 1,352 1,719 2,053 2,869 2,846 3,510 20

Shareholder’s funds 4,494 5,489 5,159 6,476 7,825 9,157 14

Business Segmental Mix (%)

MF- Asset based Revenue – – 77 76 76 73 –

MF-Non Asset Based Revenue – – 13 14 14 14 –

Non-MF Revenue – – 10 10 10 13 –

AIF – – 3 2 3 3 –

CAMS Pay – – 3 2 3 3 –

CAMS REP – – 2 2 2 2 –

Others – – 3 3 3 1 –

Ratio (x)

EPS (Rs) 27.6 35.1 41.9 58.6 58.1 71.6 20

P/E 116.1 91.3 76.4 59.5 60.0 48.7 `-

BVPS (Rs) 91.5 111.8 105.1 131.9 159.4 186.5 14

P/B 34.9 28.6 30.4 26.4 21.8 18.7 -

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals

Price (Rs) 392
Premiumisation play on cards
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CROP.BO
Key trends in ECD
Bloomberg code CROMPTON IN
1. Premiumisation: There is increasing premiumisation in the market
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,023
across product categories. Fan is no more a functional product
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 15.0 but also an aesthetic value addition to the homes and lifestyle
Issued shares (mn) 643 experience.
Target price (Rs) 326 2. Shortening of replacement cycle: The replacement cycle is getting
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M shorter as the young population seeks to upgrade themselves with
Absolute 23 35 43 newer technologies and designs. Higher disposable income, higher
Relative 23 35 24 aspirations and reducing patience levels has led to gradually
reduction in replacement cycle.
Valuation Ratios
3. Increasing regulations: Introduction of BEE rating for Fans marks the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
beginning of many such regulatory changes and modifications that
EPS (Rs) 6.8 9.5 12.1 will be introduced which lead to shift in market share to organised
+/- (%) (6) 39 27 industry as sustaining will get difficult for unorganised players due to
enhanced cost.
PER (x) 57.7 41.5 32.6
4. Sustainability: Personal coolers, pedestal fans, and table fans would
PBV (x) 8.5 7.0 5.8
be widely used as cooling solutions amidst rising temperatures. As
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 the usage increases, higher consumption of power will lead to people
EV/Sales (x) 3.4 3.0 2.6 buying more energy efficient fans.

EV/EBITDA (x) 35.1 27.2 22.0 Key monitorable metric in Crompton 2.0
• Premiumisation: Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CGCEL)
Major Shareholders (%)
is keen on improving share from premiumisation across its product
FPIs 32
categories. It has defined premiumisation percentage to be achieved
MFs 40
for each vertical. Premiumisation will help in increasing margins as
BFSI’s 12
well as bottom line.
Public & Others 16
• New Product Development (NPD): Revenue contribution from NPD
Relative Performance
which used to be below 10% earlier has now reached 15% and the
550
500
company aims to increase it further.
450 • Strong cash generation: CGCEL’s cash flow generation as % of PAT is
400
350
high and is one of the few companies in the industry with Rs 5-6 bn
300 cash generation each year with low capex ~Rs 1 bn each year.
250
CGCEL’s key competitive advantage
200
• Brand: CGCEL has strong brand which is present for nine decades
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

and is market leader in Fans with highest ever volumes sold in the
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals world annually. It is also amongst top 3 players in geysers, residential
Sensex (rebased)
pumps and lighting.

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

104
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Distribution: Alternate channel which used to be less than 10% three to four years back, is already
moving to 20% contribution and has potential to reach 40-50% in the next few years.
• Innovation: The company has introduced many industry-first products like SilentPro Fans, silent
chimneys, etc. and has many other products in pipeline
Organisation structure
Board of Directors (BoD)
• CGCEL is a professionally run company with diverse BoD which takes succession planning very seriously
and has been smoothly and seamlessly transitioning retirement and appointments of new directors.
• It has already planned for next succession and the activity goes on continuously and seamlessly.
Management level
• Earlier, the organisation structure was Business Unit (BU) led which encompassed everything. CGCEL
de-risked it by creating Centre of Excellence with people of expertise running different functions like
manufacturing, marketing, procurement, innovation, etc. which leads to lesser concentration of power.
• Competitive compensation package, friendly and safe work environment, equal opportunity to all, and
purpose-led culture are some steps that CGCEL has undertaken to reduce attrition rate and create
more sustainable environment for its people.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 44,789 45,203 48,035 53,941 68,696 73,128 82,023 92,763 11.3 12.6

EBITDA 6,770 6,980 7,205 7,694 7,705 7,137 9,065 10,956 3.3 23.9

PAT 4,937 6,098 6,167 5,913 4,632 4,399 6,125 7,781 (1.6) 33.0

Margin (%)

Gross margin 31.0 32.1 32.0 31.4 31.9 31.6 32.6 33.0 – –

EBITDA margin 15.1 15.4 15.0 14.3 11.2 9.8 11.1 11.8 – –

PAT margin 11.0 13.5 12.8 11.0 6.7 6.0 7.5 8.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.3) (0.5) 0.0 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 7.9 9.7 9.8 9.3 7.3 6.8 9.5 12.1 (1.9) 33.0

BV (Rs) 17.5 23.4 30.8 38.7 41.8 46.6 56.1 68.1 24.3 20.9

RoCE (%) 48.8 46.6 36.4 21.1 15.5 15.2 19.3 21.3 – –

RoA (%) 28.0 26.9 24.1 15.9 11.9 11.1 13.6 14.9 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 52.3 47.5 36.3 27.0 18.1 15.5 18.5 19.5 – –

Net profit margin 11.0 13.5 12.8 11.0 6.7 6.0 7.5 8.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 16 May 24.pdf

105
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Cummins India

Price (Rs) 3,551
Strong sector tailwinds and strong portfolio driving growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code CUMM.BO
• The proactive measures by the company on managing costs and
Bloomberg code KKC IN
improving profitability have started showing results. This was further
Market cap. (US$ mn) 11,799 aided by strong domestic demand across various market segments.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 22.1 • The company does not anticipate any new market segment emerging,
Issued shares (mn) 277 rather the existing market segments are expected to do well in the
Target price (Rs) 2,875 long-term. All the core infrastructure, social schemes, etc. require
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Cummins India’s products to be used in them.

Absolute 8 30 102 • Data centres has a good demand, both in domestic as well as
Relative 8 29 84 international market. In FY24, it contributed 10% of the topline. This
continues to be a high growth segment with greater opportunities.
Valuation Ratios
• On CPCB power gensets, the company does not expect any prebuy of
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
CPCB 2 as the cost of CPCB 2 + retro fitted devices is now more than
EPS (Rs) 52.9 59.3 68.8 CPCB 4+ gensets. The dealer’s inventory of CPCB 2 gen sets is below
+/- (%) 28 12 16 average.

PER (x) 66.9 59.8 51.5 • The overall export market is expected to recover from 2HFY25 onwards
and a full recovery is expected by FY26. The company has set a long-
PBV (x) 16.3 14.8 13.3
term target of 35% topline contribution from exports versus 19% in FY24.
Div./Yield (%) 0.7 0.9 1.0
• In the rail sub-segment, there was some progress with CPCB 4+
EV/Sales (x) 10.8 9.3 8.1 compliant products being used for hotel load converters, power cars,
EV/EBITDA (x) 59.3 51.8 43.5 DETC propulsion sets, etc.
• Further, Cummins is targeting telcos, which are currently using low
Major Shareholders (%)
rated gensets. The idea is to increase the market share in this sub-
Promoters 51
segment.
FPIs 17
MFs 19 • Growth levers: It maintained a 2x real GDP growth guidance range of
BFSI’s 4 12-16% over the long-term period with a positive biasness on margins.
Public & Others 9 This will be supported by full implementation of CPCB 4+ from 01 July
2024. Further, resilient demand from data centers, commercial &
Relative Performance
residential real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing may drive
5,000
this growth trajectory upwards. The distribution segment which has
4,000
better profitability will benefit from services, spare part portfolio and
3,000
reconditioning. The company focuses on cost optimisation and value
2,000
reengineering. The company follows the principle of fair pricing.
1,000
• The company further stated that it shall have access to all the new
0
age technologies of Cummins Inc. and will not be deprived of any
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

growth opportunity.
Cummins India
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 56,590 51,577 43,292 61,404 77,444 88,959 102,623 118,391 8.2 15.4

EBITDA 8,641 5,863 5,795 8,851 12,426 16,191 18,472 21,902 9.5 16.3

PAT 7,226 6,492 6,179 7,874 11,441 14,674 16,428 19,058 12.2 14.0

Margin (%)

Gross margin 36.1 34.7 36.2 33.1 32.5 35.3 34.5 35.3 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 15.3 11.4 13.4 14.4 16.0 18.2 18.0 18.5 – –

PAT margin 12.8 12.6 14.3 12.8 14.8 16.5 16.0 16.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 26.1 23.4 22.3 28.4 41.3 52.9 59.3 68.8 12.2 14.0

BV (Rs) 149.0 150.6 159.0 175.1 193.7 217.3 239.2 267.0 6.8 10.8

RoCE (%) 23.3 16.8 17.3 20.6 26.6 31.0 31.8 33.6 – –

RoA (%) 18.4 13.5 14.1 16.6 21.3 24.6 24.9 26.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.8 15.6 14.4 17.0 22.4 25.8 26.0 27.2 – –

Net profit margin 12.8 12.6 14.3 12.8 14.8 16.5 16.0 16.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 – –

107
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data DCB Bank

Price (Rs) 128
Strong MSME focus fuels robust growth amid leadership
BSE Sensex 73,961 transition
Reuters code DCBA.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code DCBB IN We met the CEO & MD – Mr Praveen Kutty, Treasury Head/IR – Mr Ajit Kumar
Market cap. (US$ mn) 481 Singh and CFO – Mr Ravi Kumar of DCB Bank at our Trinity Conference.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.9 Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:

Issued shares (mn) 313 On forward looking approach

Target price (Rs) 136 • The new MD will focus more on a) increasing the engagement and

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M

cross-sell with existing customers and b) re-entering the LAP and
MSME loans materially.
Absolute (8) 0 9
• The bank is not worried about NIM and NPA and it foresees fee income
Relative (8) (0) (10)
growth and cost-to-asset ratio improvement being a challenge.
Valuation Ratios
Guidance for FY25E
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Loan growth to be 21-22%.
Adj. EPS (Rs) 17.2 15.0 15.6 • NIM improvement of 5 bps.
BVPS (Rs) 162.0 177.0 192.6 • Credit cost increasing to 35 bps.

Adj. Book 151.2 163.4 177.7 • RoA of 1%.

NAV/share (Rs)
• The cost to average asset target is from 269 bps to 255 bps.
PER (x) 7.5 8.5 8.2 On CASA mobilisation
Price/Book (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 • The bank is driving CASA or especially SA through unique products
Price/Adj. book (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 like DCB happy savings account, etc, deployment of large team,
partnerships and yield-based changes.
Div. Yield (%) 1.1 1.1 1.0
On loan book composition
Major Shareholders (%)
• Currently, mortgages are 50% of the loan book and within it, home
Promoters 15 loans and LAP are 50-50%. The share of mortgages will increase to 60%
FPIs 13 and 60% of the disbursements will now be LAP.
MFs 21
• They will also be aggressive in offering term loans to MSMEs, along with
BFSI’s 9
an overdraft product (LAP) for the same MSMEs.
Public & Others 43
• Collectively, there should be a yield kicker of 25-30 bps due to this shift
Relative Performance mix.
170
• The bank was doing construction finance business since last 8 years,
150
but it materially picked up in the last two years, with ~Rs 10 bn loan
130
110 book now.
90 On credit cost
70
• The credit cost was optically lower due to write-back of the provisions
50
in the restructured book at 16 bps.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The bank witnessed a significant spike in the NPAs in the CV segment

DCB Bank and thus they have stopped that product completely.
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

108
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Other income
• The other income to assets currently is low at 80 bps and their endeavour is to take it to 100 bps, but this
will be a challenging task.
On partnerships
• The bank will continue to deepen the co-lending book; it currently constitutes 7.5% of the overall book.
However, the bank does not have full control over the underwriting and collateral in this segment.
• The bank strengthened this book way back due to regulatory concerns regarding compliance.
Miscellaneous
• The bank’s customers are primarily self-employed and informal sector clients. Consequently, it faced
challenges in terms of loan growth and asset quality due to events such as demonetisation, GST
implementation, and Covid-19. If there are no disruptions in the macroeconomic landscape for MSMEs,
the bank will inherently deliver good metrics.
• The bank’s OD average ticket size stands at Rs 2.5 mn.
• The bank’s mix is tilted towards organic growth not due to expense issues, but due to control issues.
• The higher ticket size LAP has more contribution from DSA.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 11,493 12,649 12,866 13,575 17,170 19,279 21,074 24,343 10.9 12.4
Operating Expense 8,529 9,029 8,466 10,126 13,397 15,377 17,533 20,101 12.5 14.3
Operating Profit 6,466 7,531 8,858 7,970 7,867 8,644 9,329 10,935 6.0 12.5
PAT 3,254 3,379 3,358 2,875 4,656 5,360 5,049 5,773 10.5 3.8
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 31,156 34,222 37,586 40,488 45,661 50,713 55,728 61,501 10.2 10.1
Advances 235,680 253,453 259,592 290,958 343,807 409,246 471,802 541,619 11.7 15.0
Deposits 284,351 303,699 297,039 346,917 412,389 493,530 566,401 645,654 11.7 14.4
Total Assets 357,918 385,051 396,021 447,926 523,659 630,370 717,254 810,569 12.0 13.4
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 11 11 11 9 15 17 16 19 10.3 3.8
BV 93 103 114 123 137 162 178 197 11.8 10.2
ABV 90 96 99 109 128 151 165 181 11.1 9.4
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8
ROE 12.0 11.2 10.0 7.8 11.5 11.5 9.5 9.8
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 1.8 2.5 4.1 4.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1
NNPA 0.7 1.2 2.3 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2
PCR 65.0 53.5 45.2 55.6 68.2 66.4 62.9 60.7
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 13.1 13.9 15.5 15.8 15.2 14.5 14.2 13.7
Total cap. adequacy 16.8 17.8 19.7 18.9 17.6 16.6 15.0 14.6

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/DCB Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 25 Apr 24.pdf

109
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data DCM Shriram

Price (Rs) 998
Diversified business model to help stabilise performance
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code DCMS.BO
• Cheap caustic imports from Iran especially to western India impacted
Bloomberg code DCMS IN
DCM’s performance in FY24.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,866
• Management mentioned that global PVC demand continues to be
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.5 sluggish due to slowdown in the Chinese housing sector which has
Issued shares (mn) 156 also impacted the realisation domestically.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The Bioseed business turned EBIT positive in FY24, and growth is
Absolute 3 5 16 expected in the medium-term with key target crops being corn, cotton
Relative 3 4 (2) and paddy in India.

Valuation Ratios • DCM Shriram expects its hydrogen peroxide plant to get commissioned
in the next two months, and ECH capacity by 2QFY25 with capex
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
pegged at ~Rs 11.0 bn for both projects combined.
EPS (Rs) 68.1 58.1 28.5
• The board has approved an in-principal project for epoxy resin and
+/- (%) 58.5 (14.7) (50.9) advanced materials and will finalise details in the next two quarters.
PER (x) 14.5 17.0 34.7 • Net debt as of March 2024 stood at Rs 14.34 bn versus Rs 6.81 bn in
Price/Book (x) 2.9 2.6 2.4 March 2023 with cost of blended debt at ~7.5%. Management sees
ideal net debt/EBITDA at 1.5/2x.
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.3 1.5
• Domestic sugar consumption is pegged at 29 mn tonnes and the
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 10.1 17.1
demand for Sugar continues to be strong.
Major Shareholders (%) • DCM foresees the Fenesta business to grow by 20% in FY25 with a
Promoters 67 healthy order book of Rs 10.0 bn.
FPIs 5
BFSI’s 8
Public & Others 21

Relative Performance
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

DCM Shriram
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 77,433 76,893 82,739 98,494 120,119 113,739 8.0

EBITDA 13,687 11,924 11,522 17,964 16,064 9,907 (6.3)

PAT 9,055 7,315 6,733 10,674 9,108 4,471 (13.2)

Margin (%)

Gross margin 52.5 50.9 45.5 55.0 53.0 49.2 –

EBITDA margin 17.7 15.5 13.9 18.2 13.4 8.7 –

PAT margin 11.7 9.5 8.1 10.8 7.6 3.9 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.4 (0.0) (0.0) 0.1 0.2 –

EPS (Rs) 57.8 45.7 43.0 68.1 58.1 28.5 (13.0)

BV (Rs) 222.3 255.6 293.6 341.0 385.0 409.9 13.2

RoCE (%) 28.3 18.4 15.9 24.1 18.4 8.8 –

RoA (%) 20.3 14.1 12.7 19.2 14.6 7.1 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 27.9 19.1 15.6 21.5 16.0 7.2 –

Net profit margin 11.7 9.3 8.1 10.8 7.6 3.9 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Dr Lal PathLabs

Price (Rs) 2,648
Strong pan India diagnostic player
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code DLPA.BO
• Volumes will be the key driver of growth with moderation in FY23 and
Bloomberg code DLPL IN
FY24 now largely behind us. Even competitive intensity to some extent
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,649 has normalised in terms of aggressive, predatory pricing model.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.7 • Suburban growth tracking along expected lines –
Issued shares (mn) 83 o In Q4 suburban posted double digit revenue growth. There are a
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M lot of patient acquisition activities ongoing, and Dr Lal PathLabs is
Absolute 12 13 30 expected to build upon this growth strategy.
Relative 12 12 12 o Overall, Suburban has grown to become the 3rd largest brand
Valuation Ratios in Mumbai city, and it continues to expand in nearby regions of
Mumbai and Pune.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
o The 3rd part of Suburban synergies will be driven by its integration
EPS (Rs) 41.4 28.7 42.8
with parent, including some backend operations. It has a huge
+/- (%) 18.0 (30.7) 49.4 platform and strong brand awareness in the B2B market, which
PER (x) 63.9 92.3 61.8 Dr. Lal expects to leverage to drive growth ahead.

PBV (x) 14.9 13.4 12.1 • Swasthfit continues to gain traction

o The Swasthfit initiative (bundled routine tests strategy) continues
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2
to ride the preventive health check-up trend with contribution
EV/Sales (x) 10.4 10.6 9.5
increasing from 14% in FY21 to 20% in FY24.
EV/EBITDA (x) 38.7 43.8 34.9 o This has positively impacted the tests per patient by resulting
Major Shareholders (%) in higher realisation per patient but also led to lower footfalls at
Promoters 55 centres.
FPIs 26 o As per management, Swasthfit along with ProSelf of Suburban will
MFs 7 constitute around 20-24% of sales going forward.
BFSI’s 3
o There is large scope to take it beyond tier 1 cities (not only metros)
Public & Others 9
in multiple geographies where it is expected to drive growth.
Relative Performance • Tier-3+ increasing share in overall revenues
4,000
o Tier-3+ segment has scaled-up to 34% of sales and continues to
3,500
expand without burdening margins.
3,000
o It is majorly franchise driven and hence the investment is low
2,500
which has resulted in lower burden on EBITDA margins.
2,000
o Northern markets of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, etc. remain key
1,500
core areas where they expect to penetrate further on the back of
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

strong brand recall.

Dr Lal PathLabs
Sensex (rebased)

Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 12,034 13,304 15,813 20,874 20,169 22,266 13.1

EBITDA 2,937 3,436 4,363 5,607 4,898 6,093 15.7
PAT 1,991 2,258 2,917 3,453 2,383 3,577 12.4
Margin (%)

Gross margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 79.7 –

EBITDA margin 24.4 25.8 27.6 26.9 24.3 27.4 –
PAT margin 16.5 17.0 18.5 16.5 11.8 16.1 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 24.1 27.3 35.6 42.0 28.9 43.1 12.3
BV (Rs) 116.8 126.8 149.4 180.2 199.9 222.6 13.8
RoCE (%) 34.6 31.4 32.6 29.5 18.5 25.5 –
RoA (%) – – – – – 29.1 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 23.1 23.0 26.0 25.5 15.2 19.3 –

Net profit margin 16.5 17.0 18.5 16.5 11.8 16.1 –
Asset turnover (x) – – – – – 1.8 –
Leverage factor (x) – – – – – 0.7 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data E.I.D. Parry (India)

Price (Rs) 668
Significant transition from being a pure play sugar manufacturer
BSE Sensex 73,961 to an FMCG player
Reuters code EIDP.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code EID IN • There is an ample potential to increase blending in South Indian states.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,421 The company has recently commissioned 120 klpd distillery capacity
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.1 at the sugar unit of the company at Haliyal, Karnataka. With this total
Issued shares (mn) 178 distillery capacity gone up to 537 klpd.

Target price (Rs) 703 • Further, it is undergoing a capacity addition of 45 klpd at Nelikuppam.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The visibility in refined sugar business is becoming prominent with
Absolute 8 6 42 volume growth in the branded FMCG business.

Relative 8 6 24 • Branded sugar business volumes may increase to more than 60% of
the company’s total refined sugar sales, as compared to 40% now, FY24
Valuation Ratios
(35% in FY23), due to the launch of key brands and store expansions
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
(110,000 stores in FY24 versus 79,000 in FY23) over the next two years.
EPS 50.8 90.1 104.3 This may lead to long-term margin expansion.
Change (%) (5.0) 77.3 15.7 • The retail FMCG business which is currently Rs 5.2 bn (sweetener)
has the potential to become Rs 10 bn in the next two years, also non-
PER (x) 13.1 10.5 8.5
sweetener segment like rice/pulses will grow simultaneously.
PBV(x) 4.1 4.0 4.1
• The company is moving towards value-added products in both
Yield (%) 1.2 1.3 1.4 sweetener and non-sweetener segments lift margins.
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 • They deployed a separate FMCG expert team apart from the core
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.8 2.5 1.8 business personnel to run the business.

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 42
FPIs 9
MFs 11
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 37

Relative Performance
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

EID Parry India

Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Somnath Saha

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com somnath.saha@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 165,555 171,289 185,875 235,279 352,438 294,131 327,919 361,623 12.2 10.9

EBITDA 15,951 19,991 21,735 24,122 31,936 26,156 33,692 39,528 10.4 22.9

PAT 4,371 8,889 9,998 15,737 18,277 16,176 20,047 24,226 29.9 22.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 27.8 29.0 28.8 25.1 20.8 23.0 30.7 31.0 – –

EBITDA margin 9.6 11.7 11.7 10.3 9.1 8.9 10.3 10.9 – –

PAT margin 2.6 5.2 5.4 6.7 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.0 0.8 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.3)

EPS (Rs) 8.6 26.4 25.3 51.2 53.5 50.8 63.5 78.9 42.5 24.6

BV (Rs) 95.8 95.8 145.6 155.3 161.8 163.9 165.2 164.3 11.3 0.1

RoCE (%) 14.3 17.8 21.3 26.0 27.2 20.3 22.7 24.1

RoA (%) 8.4 11.0 13.3 15.7 16.5 12.4 14.1 15.5

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 9.0 27.6 17.4 33.0 33.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 – –

Net profit margin 1.5 0.1 42.7 11.6 6.8 3.8 3.8 4.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data eClerx Services

Price (Rs) 2,194
Maintained EBITDA guidance of 24-28%; pipeline remains
BSE Sensex 73,961 healthy across verticals…
Reuters code ECLE.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code ECLX IN • eClerx Services (ECLX) is committed to enhancing its sales capabilities
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,289 and expanding its reach to capture a larger market share in this
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.5 challenging environment.
Issued shares (mn) 49 • The focus is on securing large deal wins, and the earnouts for the sales
Target price (Rs) 2,863 team have been realigned to prioritise revenue, whereas they were

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M previously more focused on margins.

Absolute (11) (13) 35 • The pipeline is stronger than last year. The company will monitor
whether the conversion rate remains consistent. The general tenure
Relative (11) (13) 16
of deals is 12-18 months. Short-term work will be of 3, 6, or 9 months.
Valuation Ratios
• Aiming for top-tier growth, the company seeks to become the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
preferred service provider for global clients in Facilities Management,
EPS (Rs) 107.4 113.4 137.4 Hi-tech, Retail, and Telecommunications.
+ / -(%) 4.6 5.6 21.2 • As the company strives to gain market share, it may experience some
pricing pressure. There will be margin pressure in FY25 with margin to
PER (x) 20.5 19.4 16.0
bottom out in 1QFY25, but the objective is to ensure absolute growth in
PBV (x) 4.7 4.4 3.4
EBITDA and PAT in FY25.
EV/ Sales (x) 3.5 3.1 2.6 • In the financial markets, the company plans to boost its wallet
EV/ EBITDA (x) 13.0 12.2 9.6 share among existing clients by focusing on both maintaining and
transforming their banking strategies.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Luxury companies are projecting slower growth of 8-10%. Retail has
Promoters 54
FPIs 14
shown little improvement in recent years. Hi-tech vertical continues
MFs 21 to face challenges. The cable and telecom industry is under stress.
BFSI’s 2 Regulatory and KYC demands, which drove much of last year’s
Public & Others 10 demand, are expected to persist.
• Deal structuring needs to change, but not the delivery capability. ACV
Relative Performance
is net new, does not include renewals and new transactions.
3,000
• Internally, the company is measuring direct and indirect revenue from
2,500
Gen AI. Pure Gen AI revenue is much smaller. Gen AI is beneficiary from
2,000
the cost perspective. The company is proactively offering discounts to
1,500 the customers.
1,000 • The company has enough headroom for growth in top clients.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The company aspires to achieve double-digit growth in FY25.

• Absolute EBITDA and PAT growth are a priority starting in FY25. Operating
eClerx Services
Sensex (rebased) leverage should be evident from FY26.

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• There doesn’t seem to be much challenge capability-wise; instead, the focus is on deal structuring,
winning deals, and minimising runoffs.
• In FY25, ECLX aims to enhance its sales review and governance processes and invest in sales and
marketing. The company plans to build adjacent capabilities and secure large deals (over US$ 2 mn),
aiming to double its pipeline. Additionally, the company onboarded a Chief Revenue Officer and Chief
Marketing Officer.
• The company has maintained its EBITDA margin guidance of 24-28% in FY25. The company witnessed
decline in margins in 4Q due to investments in strengthening sales and delivery capabilities. Margin
expansion is anticipated from 2QFY25 onwards.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR(%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 14,306 14,376 15,645 21,603 26,479 29,255 32,911 36,921 16.6 12.3
EBITDA 3,080 3,248 4,642 6,670 7,440 7,749 8,228 9,932 24.7 13.2
PAT 2,283 2,090 2,826 4,174 4,889 5,115 5,402 6,546 21.0 13.1
Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 21.5 22.6 29.7 30.9 28.1 26.5 25.0 26.9 – –

EBIT Margin 18.4 17.7 24.5 26.1 23.8 22.2 20.8 22.7 – –

PAT Margin 16.0 14.5 18.1 19.3 18.5 17.5 16.4 17.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) – –

EPS (Rs.) 47.9 43.9 59.3 87.6 102.6 107.4 113.4 137.4 21.0 13.1
BV (Rs.) 290.0 274.3 315.1 329.2 360.1 471.9 503.5 640.0 5.6 16.5
RoCE (%) 21.8 19.8 25.2 32.5 35.6 30.6 27.8 29.1 – –

RoA (%) 20.6 18.0 22.2 28.9 31.9 25.8 23.3 24.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.7 15.6 20.1 27.2 29.8 25.8 23.3 24.0 – –

Net profit margin 16.0 14.5 18.1 19.3 18.5 17.5 16.4 17.7 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/eClerx Services - 4QFY24 Result Update - 17 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Elecon Engineering Company

Price (Rs) 1,109
Geared for next leg of growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ELCN.BO
• The global economy is showing some signs of recovery with inflation
Bloomberg code ELCN IN declining faster than expected. However, persistent geopolitical
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,491 tensions in West Asia and supply chain disruptions remain a potential
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.6 risk.
Issued shares (mn) 112 • Elecon Engineering has 39% market share in the domestic organised
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M industry. With India aiming to become second largest producer of

Absolute (2) 11 110

steel in the world, there will be big ticket size investments coming up in
the near future.
Relative (2) 10 91
• Competition from China is also not a challenge as Chinese machines
Valuation Ratios
are not high-precision machine. In power project, Elecon has a share
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 of 10-20% of the entire project cost.
EPS (Rs) 12.4 20.9 31.1 • With increasing order enquiries and higher wallet share, the FY25
+/- (%) 149.4 68.5 49.1 ordering activity shall continue to be strong in FY25E. The management
aims revenue growth of 15% in FY25 to Rs 22.3 bn with Industrial gears
PER (x) 89.6 53.2 35.7
contributing Rs 18.7 bn and rest from Material Handling Equipment
PBV (x) 11.9 9.7 7.8 (MHE).
Div./Yield (%) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) • There is good enquiry of Rs 4-5 bn from Russia and Africa. The company
will focus on equipment supply against advance payment or LC.
EV/Sales (x) 10.3 8.0 6.2
• It is continuously working on strengthening the supply chain vendors.
EV/EBITDA (x) 50.7 36.3 25.4
The company is expecting good numbers from defence which will
Major Shareholders (%) take some time to generate revenue but has good order pipeline.
Promoters 59 • It aims to clock revenue of Rs 30 bn by FY26E demand from steel,
FPIs 8 cement, power, and sugar to be major growth drivers for gears
MFs 1 business. It aspires to clock Rs 100 bn revenue by FY30E.
BFSI’s 1
• Sustainable range of EBITDA margins going forward is expected to
Public & Others 31
remain between 23.5-24% annually going ahead.
Relative Performance • The management has reiterated its long-term target of export
1,400 contributing 50% to overall revenue. It is receiving good enquiries from
1,200
1,000 Russia but is cautious on taking orders due to difference in the way
800 Russia conducts business.
600
400 • In its exports business, the company targets Rs 2.75 bn in FY25 versus
200 Rs 1.2 bn in FY24.
0
• Elecon is venturing into high-speed gears which are used in gas
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

turbines, steam turbines, and compressors, etc. Triveni Turbine has

95% market share in this category in domestic market as Siemens is
Elecon Engineering Co
Sensex (rebased) their major client. Apart from Triveni, Walchandnagar Industries is also
involved in this category.

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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• It focuses on developing and launching one new product each year to widen its solution horizon
addressable market. These efforts on R&D improves Elecon’s competitive edge, while addressing ever-
changing needs of the evolving market.
• In industrial gears division, the company has only ~0.5% market share which insulates itself from any
global slowdown in the industry as it will not affect the company’s growth plans.
• The company’s key focus area is:
o Improve contribution from Engineered products segment having better margin profile.
o Increase share of exports from current 27-30% to 50% in the long run with 40% target by FY26E.
o Growing the MHE business sustainably and profitably by focusing on supply of products and after-
market business.
o R&D and product development to deliver high-quality and customisable products.
o Increase supply to OEM business which will effectively result into higher after-sales service and
spare parts business. The company believes the OEM business will be lot bigger in the next two-
three years.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 12,248 10,885 10,447 12,119 15,297 19,374 9.6

EBITDA 1,397 1,404 1,856 2,464 3,389 4,745 27.7
PAT 663 881 558 1,391 2,343 3,492 39.4
Margin (%)

Gross margin 53.9 53.7 53.5 52.8 53.3 55.5

EBITDA margin (%) 11.4 12.9 17.8 20.3 22.2 24.5
PAT margin 5.4 8.1 5.3 11.5 15.3 18.0
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 (0.1) (0.2)

EPS (Rs) 5.9 7.9 5.0 12.4 20.9 31.1 39.4
BV (Rs) 68.5 76.1 81.9 93.6 114.0 143.0 15.9
RoCE (%) 11.2 6.7 10.3 16.0 23.2 29.9
RoA (%) 7.3 4.4 6.7 11.1 18.0 24.3
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 9.0 10.9 6.3 14.1 20.1 24.2

Net profit margin 5.4 8.1 5.3 11.5 15.3 18.0
Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0
Leverage factor (x) 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.3

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Electronics Mart India

Price (Rs) 201
Expecting strong growth in 1QFY25; maintain SSSG growth of
BSE Sensex 73,961 10% in FY25
Reuters code ELEO.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code EMIL IN Expecting 1QFY25 to be strong led by healthy sales of cooling products
Market cap. (US$ mn) 928 • Cooling products can possibly grow at 50%+ in 1QFY25 led by strong
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 demand in ACs (also evident from ACs sales reported by likes of Voltas
Issued shares (mn) 385 during 4QFY24).
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Overall sales may grow at 30% if the demand trend remain strong.
Absolute (4) (3) 173 • However, refrigerator sales remain flattish as the scope of penetration
Relative (4) (3) 155 in case of refrigerators is less versus ACs.
• ACs have 10-15% penetration levels while refrigerators have reached
Valuation Ratios
50% levels in Indian households.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Also, its important to note that volume growth for ACs will always be
EPS (Rs) 3.5 3.2 4.8
higher compared to refrigerators as an individual household can have
+/- (%) 77.3 (7.9) 49.9 3 ACs, while there is usually one fridge and one washing machine.

PER (x) 58.1 63.0 42.0 Product segmentation skewed towards large appliances

PBV (x) 10.1 6.5 5.6 • Large Appliances followed by Mobile/IT are the two largest segments
for EMIL contributing 46/42% in FY24.
EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.5 1.3
• Over the years, contribution from Mobile/IT segment has increased
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.6 24.6 18.6 meaningfully.
Major Shareholders (%) • EMIL deals with only top 3-4 brands of the categories and it choses
Promoters 73 brands with a strong pull.
FPIs 5 • 60% of EMIL’s sales come from top 5 brands of those categories.
MFs 16
• Apart from large appliances and Mobile/IT, EMIL also runs specialty
BFSI’s 1
product retail formats including – Audio & Beyond for Home
Public & Others 5
Entertainment and Easy Kitchen – for high end modular kitchen.
Relative Performance Inventory stocking peaks during summer and festive season
300
• During the peak of festive season (2Q/3Q depending upon if its early or
250
200 late festive) the inventory per store peaks at Rs 60 mn.
150 • During the non-peak season, inventory levels goes down to Rs 300 mn/
100
store.
50
0 Gross margins for ACs remain the highest
Oct-22

Jan-23

Nov-23
Mar-23

Feb-24
Jun-23

Sep-23

May-24

• ACs continue to remain the highest margin product for EMIL followed by
panels, refrigerators, washing machines in large appliance category.
Electronics Mart India • While EMIL makes 18% gross margins on ACs, above other categories
Sensex (rebased)
make 16%.
• Small appliances too has 16% of margins followed by mobile at 8-9%
and laptop at 6%.
Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain
Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Mobile low on margins but better on sales/sq ft

• Due to increasing contribution from mobiles in the overall sales over the last few years, company’s gross
margins have declined from 16-17% to 14-15%.
• However, mobile phones have low handling cost and no inventory carrying cost.
• Churn of mobile is faster than other categories.
• Hence sales/sq ft for mobile segment is 20-30% better than the large appliances.
Operating expense segmentation
• Operating expenses at store level is divided across – marketing, manpower, utility and rental.
• Marketing/manpower/utility/rent: 1.5/1.5/0.5/1.5% of the total sales.
• EBITDA margins at store level stands at 10%.
Criteria to open stores within a cluster
• If throughput of a given store is very high in range of Rs 1 bn – then the company opens a new store within
its close vicinity.
• Hyderabad has 4-5 such clusters. There are few stores in Hyderabad which are clocking more than Rs1bn
of annual sales.
Outlook and guidance
• 30 new store openings in FY25. Maintain SSG of 10% for FY25.
• Limited levers for margin improvement in the near-term.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 CAGR (%)
(FY19-23)
Financials
Sales 16,460 31,725 32,019 43,493 54,457 35
EBITDA 997 2,274 2,039 2,919 3,360 35
PAT 480 814 586 1,039 1,227 26
Margin (%)
Gross margin 14.9 14.8 13.6 13.7 13.6 –
EBITDA margin 6.1 7.2 6.4 6.7 6.2 –
PAT margin 2.9 2.5 1.8 2.4 2.3 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 –
EPS (Rs) 1.6 2.7 2.0 3.5 3.2 19
BVPS (Rs) 11.7 14.4 16.4 19.9 30.8 27
RoCE (%) 14.4 18.2 11.1 14.2 12.2 –
RoA (%) 12.9 17.0 10.5 13.4 11.6 –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 15.0 20.7 12.7 19.1 13.8 –
Net Profit margin 2.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 2.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 2.3 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.4 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.5 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Electronics Mart India - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 28
May 24.pdf

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Share Data Electrosteel Castings

Price (Rs) 161
Biggest beneficiary of industry tailwinds…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ELST.BO
• Electrosteel Castings (ELSC) BOD has approved a capex of Rs 640 mn
Bloomberg code ELSC IN
to expand capacity in Srikalahasthi plant by 100KT in a period of 15
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,147 months. Capacity of ELSC is expected to expand to 850KT, 900KT in
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.4 FY26 and FY27 will be 1 mn tonne.
Issued shares (mn) 595 • The company is also expanding capacity through a greenfield
Target price (Rs) 233 opportunity in Odisha. The company is also receiving strong State
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Government support in this greenfield expansion. Management is

Absolute (16) 1 244 planning on purchasing a 500-acre land (in context, Srikalahasthi
plant is built on a 340-acre plant). Major advantage of plant being set
Relative (16) 0 226
up in Odisha is that it is only a few hundred kilometres away from raw
Valuation Ratios
material suppliers. Potential capacity in this greenfield project is 1 mn
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E tonnes.
EPS (Rs) 12.0 13.9 17.2 • The company has a land bank of 40 acres in Srikalahasthi plant.

Change (%) 134.3 16.4 23.1 • Pricing is market driven, but the company commands a 3-4% premium
over market due to leadership.
PER (x) 13.4 11.5 9.4
• Planned capex in FY25 is Rs 2.0-2.2 bn.
PBV (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5
• The company is confident in 17-18% EBITDA margin sustenance, and it
Div./Yield (%) 0.9 1.2 1.3
can even be higher than this.
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.5 1.2 • Current demand is so strong that the DI Pipe industry is unable to meet
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 7.9 6.3 leading to higher capacities in industry. Current capacity in industry is
~3.8 mn tonnes and demand is 5 mn tonnes. Installed capacity in FY25
Major Shareholders (%)
is expected to reach around 4.6-4.8 mn tonnes. Capacity additions in
Promoters 46
markets in two-three years will lead to 5.7 mn tonne capacity in FY26.
FPIs 20
But still, there will be a demand-supply mismatch and demand would
Public & Others 34
still be higher.
Relative Performance
• In the next two years, the company plans on repaying Rs 3.4 bn in debt.
250
• Order book visibility for 9-10 months for 600k volumes at a value of Rs
200
45.0-50.0 bn.
150
100
• Company expects a favourable outcome within FY25 on coal block

50
litigation front.

0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Electrosteel Castings
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Aryan Sharma

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com aryan.sharma@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 26,994 27,110 34,742 52,810 72,755 74,780 75,963 85,822 22.6 7.1

EBITDA 3,947 3,660 4,338 6,979 7,376 11,784 13,974 16,578 24.5 18.6

PAT 2,221 1,611 1,530 3,473 3,158 7,399 8,613 10,606 27.2 19.7

Margin (%)

Gross margin 59.0 58.7 58.8 47.9 45.1 53.1 51.7 51.4 – –

EBITDA margin 14.6 13.5 12.5 13.2 10.1 15.8 18.4 19.3 – –

PAT margin 8.2 5.9 4.4 6.6 4.3 9.9 11.3 12.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 3.6 2.6 2.5 5.6 5.1 12.0 13.9 17.2 27.2 19.7

BV (Rs) 42.6 46.6 60.3 66.4 70.9 82.7 94.6 109.6 14.2 15.1

RoCE (%) 8.2 6.9 7.0 9.2 9.3 14.9 16.4 18.0 – –

RoA (%) 7.3 6.2 6.2 8.1 8.2 13.1 14.5 15.9 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 8.4 5.7 4.6 8.9 7.4 15.6 15.7 16.8 – –

Net profit margin 8.2 5.9 4.4 6.6 4.3 9.9 11.3 12.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Electrosteel Castings - 4QFY24 Result Update - 13 May
24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Emami

Price (Rs) 626
Well positioned for optimistic FY25…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code EMAM.BO
Upscaling distribution
Bloomberg code HMN IN
• The company has undertaken initiatives to improve overall distribution.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,292
Share of MT to overall distribution has come to significant levels today.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.9
• Small SKUs contribute to 20-25% of the total volumes which addresses
Issued shares (mn) 439 the mass segment. International has 17-18% volume contribution. MT is
Target price (Rs) 600 20% of which core MT is 18% (excl. digital brands). 5% is canteen supplies.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Currently, rural contributes 50% of GT business. However, overall
Absolute 28 34 60 GT contribution has come down. Rural dependency has reduced.
Relative 28 34 41 However, core portfolio will benefit from rural recovery.

Valuation Ratios Core portfolio

Yr to 31 Mar FY24E FY25E FY26E • Core portfolio is doing very well.

EPS (Rs) 18.3 19.3 22.8 • Zandu balm, BoroPlus and Kesh King command very high margin
business due to better brand equity.
+/- (%) 8.0 5.3 18.2
Hair oil category update and Kesh King
PER (x) 34.2 32.5 27.5
• Hair oil is currently facing some short-term issues.
PBV (x) 10.2 9.7 8.9
• Kesh King is experiencing some impact on demand due to a slowdown
Div./Yield (%) 1.9 2.2 2.4 in the overall hair oil category. Additionally, growth is being stunted by
EV/Sales (x) 7.6 6.8 6.1 downtrading to coconut oils and increased competition from D2C
brands.
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.5 24.3 20.5
• Emami is addressing the overall category issue.
Major Shareholders (%)
Pain Management segment update
Promoters 55
• The pain management segment had delivered significant growth
FPIs 13
during the Covid-19, which has now normalised.
MFs 20
BFSI’s 2 International business
Public & Others 10 • International business continues to do well.

Relative Performance • International business margins are lower than India business due
700 to the presence in multiple geographies which requires higher ad
650
spends (~20-25%).
600
550 New brands
500
450 • The Man co. and Brillare are back at pre-Covid level margins.
400
350 • Ad spends are in the range of 20-25%, which was negligible back then.
300
Guidance
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Emami is starting from a good base in FY25.

Emami • The summer portfolio is performing well.
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The winter portfolio has a weaker base.

• Rural recovery and a good rabi crop should supplement growth.
• Rural recovery will help improve Kesh King and pain management.
• Incremental savings in gross margins will be invested in higher ad spends. Margins will improve gradually.
• Earlier, ad spends were decreasing because growth was not present.
• Rural spends are currently going down. For example, consumption of Navratna’s sachets has reduced.
• Currently, the portfolio is balanced. The company is engaged with distributors year-round.
• The company won’t shy away from taking price hikes in case of inflation, as it is the price maker for 80% of
its portfolio. Unlike other players, the company doesn’t take price cuts when inflation decreases.
Growth versus Honasa
• Like Honasa, other listed players cannot make investments whose losses will sustain for a long time.
• Honasa had a first-mover advantage in certain products.
• Emami invests in companies gradually, which scale up over time. Emami’s partnership with Alofrut is one
example that is showing excellent growth and has the option to convert into a subsidiary.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR(%) CAGR(%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 26,929 26,549 28,805 31,872 34,057 35,781 39,586 43,686 5.8 8.7

EBITDA 7,255 6,905 8,830 9,524 8,628 9,495 10,984 12,916 5.5 14.4

PAT 5,092 5,180 6,690 10,333 7,473 7,987 8,410 9,943 9.4 10.0

Margin(%)

Gross margin 65.7 67.0 67.7 66.3 64.7 67.6 68.2 69.0 – –

EBITDA margin 26.9 26.0 30.7 29.9 25.3 26.5 27.7 29.6 – –

PAT margin 18.9 19.5 23.2 32.4 21.9 22.3 21.2 22.8 – –

Ratio(x)

Net D/E (0.0) 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) – –

EPS (Rs.) 11.2 11.4 15.1 23.4 16.9 18.3 19.3 22.8 – –

BV (Rs.) 45.7 40.2 39.7 47.1 52.2 61.4 64.7 70.5 – –

RoCE(Rs.) 18.7 18.9 29.3 33.0 28.1 30.7 33.3 37.5 – –

RoA (Rs.) 15.5 15.0 22.6 25.6 22.4 25.8 28.2 31.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis

RoE 24.9 26.6 37.3 53.8 34.1 32.0 30.5 33.7 – –

Net profit margin 18.9 19.5 23.2 32.4 21.9 22.3 21.2 22.8 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 – –

125
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Escorts Kubota

Price (Rs) 3,818
Steady tractor outlook
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ESCO.BO
• Volumes: Domestic tractor volumes declined by 14.2% YoY in 4QFY24,
Bloomberg code ESCORTS IN
with exports declining by 20% YoY in 4QFY24. Management expects a
Market cap. (US$ mn) 5,057 growth of 4-5% in overall tractor volumes for FY25.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 12.1 • Exports: Management expects stable YoY growth in FY25, with
Issued shares (mn) 111 significant growth anticipated in FY26, especially after Kubota
Target price (Rs) 3,533 integration. Shifts in component sourcing from China to India are
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M foreseen. Despite recessionary trends in the US and Europe, growth is

Absolute 14 34 75 anticipated through new product launches and expansion into newer
geographical markets.
Relative 14 33 57
• Margins: Margin impact in the quarter was influenced by lower
Valuation Ratios
volumes, cost inflation and higher overheads. Marginal price hikes
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
were implemented to offset inflation.
EPS (Rs) 92.7 107.9 126.2 • Rajasthan plant: Land acquisition efforts are ongoing in Rajasthan for
+/- (%) 40.9 16.4 16.9 a plant expected to cost Rs 4 bn. Tractor and construction equipment
plants will be established at the same location, with construction
PER (x) 41.1 35.3 30.2
phased over three-four years and commercialisation targeted for
PBV (x) 4.5 4.0 3.5
FY27-28.
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 • Capacity: Current tractor segment capacity stands at ~170k units,
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 3.2 2.9 including 50k units from JV. Engine capacity ranges between ~150-
160k units. Plans are in place to double both capacities through new
EV/EBITDA (x) 33.6 27.1 22.2
greenfield capex.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Capex: FY25 capex is estimated at ~Rs 3 bn.
Promoters 68
• Farm implement business: With a turnover of ~Rs 3-4 bn, the company
FPIs 8
focuses on cultivators and rotavators, while larger machines like
MFs 8
Harvesters operate through JVs. Distribution network expansion is a
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 15
priority, with current penetration at 5-6%.
• New product launches aim to cover market gaps: While the southern
Relative Performance
industry accounts for ~15%, growth, management expects the
4,500
4,000 growth to be restricted in Southern areas. Management indicated on
3,500 focusing on Northern and Western India to regain lost market share.
3,000
Market share for Kubota has been affected by steep volume decline in
2,500
2,000 Karnataka and Maharashtra.
1,500
1,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Escorts Kubota
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

126
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 61,964 57,610 69,293 71,527 83,450 87,767 118,514 129,191 7.2 21.3

EBITDA 7,333 6,758 11,292 9,513 9,444 11,687 14,222 16,795 9.8 19.9

PAT 4,849 4,855 8,741 7,656 7,710 10,371 12,074 14,115 16.4 16.7

Margin (%)

Gross margin 31.6 33.7 33.7 31.0 29.3 31.0 29.5 30.5 - -

EBITDA margin 11.8 11.7 16.3 13.3 11.3 13.3 12.0 13.0 - -

PAT margin 7.6 8.6 12.6 10.7 10.4 11.8 10.2 10.9 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.3) (0.6) (0.6) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) - -

EPS (Rs) 38.6 40.4 68.1 57.1 65.8 92.7 107.9 126.2 19.2 16.7

BV (Rs) 246.6 283.9 420.3 587.5 639.3 844.8 952.8 1,078.9 27.9 13.0

RoCE (%) 24.2 19.0 25.5 15.2 12.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 - -

RoA (%) 15.7 12.9 18.7 12.5 10.9 12.9 13.1 13.4 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.0 15.2 19.7 11.5 10.6 11.6 12.0 12.4 - -

Net profit margin 7.6 8.6 12.6 10.7 10.4 11.8 10.2 10.9 - -

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 - -

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Escorts Kubota - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May 24.pdf

127
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Fedbank Financial Services

Price (Rs) 119
Empowering emerging India with easy access to loans
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code FEDB.BO
Business
Bloomberg code FEDFINA IN
• The company has guided for 25%+ AUM growth in the medium-term
Market cap. (US$ mn) 528
with the AUM mix tilting towards Small Ticket size Secured MSME Loans
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2 as the tenor of these loans is higher at seven-eight years versus that
Issued shares (mn) 370 of Medium Ticket Size loans (four-five years) and Unsecured Business
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Loans (two-three years).
Absolute (7) (0) 0 • Sourcing: The company does in-house sourcing for Small Ticket size
Relative (7) (1) (18) loans and Gold Loans, whereas 90%+ DSA sourcing for unsecured
Business Loans and Medium Ticket size Secured MSME Loans.
Valuation Ratios
• Liability side: 47% of the assets have tenor of less than one year which
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
gives the company the ability to have at least 40% of the liabilities
EPS (Rs) 3.2 5.6 6.6
of shorter tenure. The company recently got rating upgrade to AA+.
BVPS (Rs) 35.9 42.1 61.2 As the interest rate curve is flattish, the company has borrowed for

P/E (x) 37.0 21.3 18.0 longer tenor; however, as the yield curve becomes upward slopping
the company will tap in CP market as the company has unutilised
P/BV (x) 3.3 2.8 1.9
limit of Rs 20 bn.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Competitive intensity: The competitive intensity continues to
Promoters 62 remain less as there is a huge untapped opportunity of Rs 6.5 trn with
FPIs 3 smaller towns in India where demand of loans continues to remain
MFs 2 high with no or less supply.
BFSI’s 20
• Off book strategy: The company has Rs 6bn Gold AUM as part of Co-
Public & Others 13
lending arrangement with one Foreign Bank and one large Private
Relative Performance sector bank. The company continues to look for other partnerships
170 for co-lending business. Overall, off book loans stands at 19% with 12
160
150 partners and will continue to remain in near 20% levels.
140
• Underwriting: The underwriting happens at branch level with
130
120 centralised approval.
110
100
• Approval ratio: For Secured MSME Loans it’s near 45% and for Business
Loans it’s 37%.
Nov-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

• There is no overlap between Federal Bank with respect to geographies

Fedbank Financial Services and customer profile. Federal Bank provides gold loans at 10%,
Sensex (rebased) whereas the company’s average yield on gold loans is ~17% .
• The company continues to adhere to regulations and has check-in
systems for gold loans. 100% digital disbursements of gold loans.
• Branch break-even: MSME Loans – six-eight months and Gold Loans
- 12-15 months.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

128
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Margins
• There can be some benefits on the cost of borrowings front post the rating upgrade which will aid
margin. Incremental COB continues to remain lower than Blended COB for 4QFY24.
Opex
• Higher cost-to-income over the last few years as management was building a multi-product NBFC
from scratch with expansion into newer geographies. As the vintage of the branch increases and
productivity levels rise, opex to assets can improve by 20-30 bps every year for the next two to three
years from the current 5.2% level.
• Non-Gold opex to assets is at 4.7%, and Gold Business opex to assets is at 6.2%.
Asset quality
• The company writes off unsecured loans between 90-120+ dpd and has an average write-off rate of
about 2% per annum.
• Coverage ratio continues to remain comfortable with 60%+ coverage.
• The company has barely faced any auction losses in Gold Business segment.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-FY24)

Net Interest Income 1,419 2,650 3,844 5,360 7,426 9,434 51.3

Operating Expense 876 1,875 2,362 3,129 4,352 5,495 49.3

Operating Profit 543 774 1,482 2,231 3,073 3,939 54.2

PAT 362 387 617 1,035 1,801 2,447 49.4

Shareholder's Fund 4,586 6,912 8,347 11,535 13,557 22,608 31.1

AUM 20,190 38,380 48,624 61,872 90,696 121,919 45.6

Borrowings 16,002 32,176 43,281 50,168 71,358 82,146 45.3

Per Share Data (Rs)

EPS (Rs) 2 1 2 3 6 7 37.3

BV (Rs) 20 25 29 36 42 61 20.6

Return Profile (%)

ROA 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.4 –

ROE 10.1 6.7 8.1 10.4 14.4 13.5 –

Asset Quality (%)

GNPA 2.3 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 –

NNPA 1.9 1.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 –

PCR 15.4 26.5 31.7 21.5 22.7 25.0 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Fine Organic Industries

Price (Rs) 4,431
New capacities to drive the next leg of growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code FINO.BO
• Fine Organic Industries (FINEORG) is in the final approval stages for
Bloomberg code FINEORG IN
acquiring 28-30 acres of land, which will take at least 18 months to
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,628 develop, with peak capacity expected to be reached in three years.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.2 • Export markets are showing signs of revival with demand recovery
Issued shares (mn) 31 seen in North America, South America and Asia.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Subdued global demand has kept vegetable oil prices suppressed;
Absolute 1 2 (1) and with fresh crops hitting the market, raw material prices are
Relative 1 2 (20) expected to remain soft which may help expand margins.

Valuation Ratios • FINEORG has received one of the two permissions for the Thailand
plant with other expected shortly.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The plant is expected to commence trial production by June 2024.
EPS (Rs) 84.7 201.6 134.3
• The product going to be manufactured at the new plant is currently
+/- (%) 115.8 138.0 -33.4
being produced by only two companies globally, with FINEORG set to
PER (x) 52.4 22.0 33.0 be the third.
Price/Book (x) 14.2 8.8 7.1 • FINEORG continues to evaluate setting up considerable capacity
outside India as well as is scouting for inorganic opportunities to drive
EV/Sales (x) 7.2 4.3 5.9
the next leg of growth.
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.8 15.8 23.5

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 75
FPIs 4
MFs 10
Public & Others 10

Relative Performance
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Fine Organic Industries

Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

130
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 10,603 10,381 11,332 18,763 30,231 21,230 14.9

EBITDA 2,302 2,405 1,993 3,645 8,311 5,340 18.3
PAT 1,362 1,698 1,203 2,597 6,181 4,118 24.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 38.2 41.3 35.9 36.7 41.0 42.7 –

EBITDA margin 21.7 23.2 17.6 19.4 27.5 25.2 –

PAT margin 12.8 16.4 10.6 13.8 20.4 19.4 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (0.5)

EPS (Rs) 44.4 55.4 39.3 84.7 201.6 134.3 24.8
BV (Rs) 163.2 201.8 238.5 312.9 502.7 626.6 30.9
RoCE (%) 43.6 33.9 22.5 39.5 65.5 31.5 –

RoA (%) 37.9 29.1 18.9 32.7 55.7 28.1 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 30.4 30.4 17.8 30.7 49.4 23.8 –

Net profit margin 12.8 16.4 10.6 13.8 20.4 19.4 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.1 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Finolex Industries

Price (Rs) 312
Growing into new verticals...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code FINX.BO
• Finolex Industries has intensified its focus on increasing the share
Bloomberg code FNXP IN
of non-agricultural pipes within its product portfolio. Currently, the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,317 distribution stands at 70% for agricultural pipes and 30% for non-
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.7 agricultural pipes. The strategic objective is to achieve a balanced
Issued shares (mn) 620 ratio of 50/50 between agricultural and non-agricultural pipes over
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M the medium-term.

Absolute 17 43 75 • The company is aiming for significant growth in the Northern

Relative 17 43 57 and Central regions of India and is actively exploring expansion

opportunities specifically in Central India (will invest if the land
Valuation Ratios
placement is favorable for operational efficiencies). This regional
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 expansion strategy aligns with the company’s goal to increase its
EPS (Rs) 16.8 5.6 7.7 non-agri volumes in the overall product mix.

+/- (%) 40.6 -66.9 37.8 • In recent quarters, Finolex Industries has witnessed a remarkable
increase in volumes within the fittings segment, a trend that has
PER (x) 29.2 56.2 40.8
extended into 1QFY25. Agri segment traction has been particularly
PBV (x) 4.9 3.9 3.4 well. The company anticipates continued momentum in the demand
Div./Yield (%) 28.7 108.1 39.3 trend over the medium-term.

EV/Sales (x) 3.9 4.2 4.2 • Finolex Industries is well-equipped to support its near-term growth
opportunities, with its surplus capacity and potential for de-
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.7 61.9 30.4
bottlenecking at existing plants.
Major Shareholders (%)
• PVC-EDC spread has expanded during the quarter from around US$
Promoters 52 460 in 4QFY24 to around US$ 520 at current level.
FPIs 7
• The company may consider rewarding shareholders through a
MFs 10
special dividend or buyback, subject to board approval in the coming
BFSI’s 1
days.
Public & Others 30

Relative Performance
350
300
250
200
150
100
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Finolex Industries
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 30,913 29,845 34,623 46,473 43,971 43,174 6.9

EBITDA 5,764 4,474 9,893 10,223 2,925 5,849 0.3
PAT 3,859 3,331 7,382 7,570 2,265 4,736 4.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 37.9 34.9 44.3 38.7 30.1 36.6 –

EBITDA margin 18.6 15.0 28.6 22.0 6.7 13.5 –
PAT margin 12.5 11.2 21.3 16.3 5.2 11.0 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) –

EPS (Rs) 5.9 5.4 11.9 16.9 4.1 7.7 5.3
BV (Rs) 41.5 32.0 50.6 63.3 79.3 91.1 17.0
RoCE (%) 19.6 16.9 34.6 26.3 6.4 11.3 –
RoA (%) 11.3 10.7 20.5 15.7 3.9 7.1 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 13.7 14.6 28.8 21.4 5.1 8.4 –

Net profit margin 12.5 11.2 21.3 16.3 5.2 11.0 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Firstsource Solutions

Price (Rs) 183
Expects positive deal momentum in BFSI vertical in FY25…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key Highlights
Reuters code FISO.BO
• Firstsource Solutions (FSOL) ended FY24 with a strong and healthy deal
Bloomberg code FSOL IN
pipeline, instilling confidence in maintaining momentum over the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,531 upcoming quarters.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.3 • The company is gaining more wallet share on the cost optimisation,
Issued shares (mn) 697 revenue generation, technology and process transformation agendas
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M of clients.
Absolute (13) (11) 36 • New logos are coming in at 60% higher sizes than last year.
Relative (13) (11) 18 • Although elevated interest rates continue to pose a challenge in the
Valuation Ratios BFSI sector, FSOL is finding clients focused on cost-optimisation efforts
to improve operational efficiency. The company is also experiencing
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
positive momentum in securing new clients within the BFSI vertical.
EPS (Rs) 8.0 7.5 7.5
• The company is targeting new segments within the financial services
+ / -(%) 49.7 (5.2) (0.3) vertical with specialised service offerings in the areas of financial
PER (x) 23.2 24.5 24.5 crimes and compliance.

PBV (x) 4.1 3.7 3.4 • FSOL has a robust deal pipeline and anticipates converting several
deals in the Consumer vertical in the coming quarters. Additionally,
Div./ Yield (%) 1.9 1.9 1.9
the company continues to experience strong demand in the utilities
EV/ Sales (x) 2.3 2.3 2.2 and energy markets, while also making new advances with existing
EV/ EBITDA (x) 14.5 16.5 14.4 clients in these sectors.

Major Shareholders (%) • FSOL is experiencing a significant uptick in transformative initiatives

within the payer segment, reflected in a 60% jump in ACV wins in this
Promoters 54
segment in FY24. The current pipeline suggests this momentum will
FPIs 11
MFs 17
continue into FY25.
BFSI’s 2 • The company aims for a US$ 1 bn exit run rate by FY26 on an organic
Public & Others 16 basis and to expand EBIT margin at an annual run rate of 50 to 75 bps
each year over the medium-term, post the initial investment phase.
Relative Performance
250 • In the US, FSOL expects growth to be driven by healthcare,
communications, media and technology, as well as BFS, given the
200
strength of the FY24 existing pipeline.
150
• The company is acquiring a 100% stake in QBSS at a purchase
100
consideration of US$ 39.2 mn through internal accruals. QBSS will be
50 both margin and EPS accretive.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The QBSS acquisition significantly increases scale in the mid and back-
office revenue cycle management market. This sector is experiencing
Firstsource Solutions
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

double-digit annual growth and a rapid rise in offshoring by healthcare providers seeking to optimise
their cost structures in the post-pandemic era.
• Over the last six months, the company expanded its sales team by a third and assigned a dedicated
client partner for a defined set of accounts where there is significant headroom for growth.
• For FY25, FSOL expects revenue to grow in the range of 10-13% in cc terms, with FY25 EBIT margin to be in the
band of 11-12%, including the upfront investments the company is making.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 38,263 40,986 50,779 59,211 60,223 63,363 10.6

EBITDA 5,355 6,289 7,989 9,597 8,265 9,565 11.1
PAT 3,778 3,397 3,615 5,371 5,138 5,146 10.9
Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 14.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 13.7 15.1 –

EBIT Margin 12.0 10.8 11.7 12.0 9.4 11.0 –
PAT Margin 9.9 8.3 7.1 9.1 8.5 8.1 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 –

EPS (Rs) 5.44 4.9 5.2 7.7 7.3 7.3 10.7
BV (Rs) 39 40 41 45 49 54 7.9
RoCE (%) 27.8 12.0 14.7 16.0 11.6 13.9 –
RoA (%) 12.5 10.7 12.6 13.5 9.9 11.9 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 27.8 12.4 13.0 18.4 16.1 14.6 –

Net profit margin 9.9 8.3 7.1 9.1 8.5 8.1 –
Asset Turnover (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data GAIL (India)

Price (Rs) 204
Biggest beneficiary of India’s increasing gas consumption
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GAIL.BO
Transmission volumes to increase by 20 mmscmd (+8% CAGR) by FY26 –
Bloomberg code GAIL IN
Demand from refineries and CGD entities will primarily drive the increase
Market cap. (US$ mn) 16,100 in transmission volumes. Management believes CGD will continue to grow
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 56.2 at 10-12% CAGR leading to 4 mmscmd p.a. transmission growth. IOCL’s 6
Issued shares (mn) 6,575 refineries are undergoing capacity expansion which should consume 8
Target price (Rs) 179 mmscmd gas namely (capacity already booked at Dhamra terminal):

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Paradip refinery – 1.2 mmtpa Px PTA plant under construction.

Absolute (2) 12 95 • Barauni refinery – capacity expansion from 6 to 9 mmtpa.

Relative (2) 12 77 • Haldia refinery – Infrastructure being developed to replace FO with gas.

Valuation Ratios • Guwahati refinery – capacity expansion from 1 to 1.2 mmtpa.

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Bongaigaon refinery – capacity expansion from 2.7 to 5 mmtpa.

EPS (Rs) 13.4 12.8 15.1 • NRL refinery – capacity expansion from 3 to 9 mmtpa (gas can be
supplied if Oil India’s production doesn’t ramp-up).
Growth (%) 66.7 (4.8) 18.3
Power demand will continue to remain strong for ~six-eight months,
PER (x) 15.2 15.9 13.5
no growth expected from fertilisers units – Management has got
PB (x) 2.1 1.9 1.8 directions from Power department to keep gas available for three-four

Div./Yield (%) 2.7 2.5 3.0 months during Winter and Summer season, respectively, to meet peak
power demand. NTPC plant has been currently consuming 10 mmscmd
EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1
versus 1 mmscmd earlier. 1-1.5 mmscmd transmission volume growth will
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 11.5 10.0 be due to power demand in FY25. Fertiliser plants are already operating
Major Shareholders (%) at full capacity and thus there is no additional demand.

Promoters 52 Management remains confident on no gas transmission tariff

FPIs 15 cuts – Taking lessons from Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) tariff order,
MFs 10 management stressed on higher volumes being considered by PNGRB
BFSI’s 9 in earlier tariff review along with an important distinction in SUG gas cost
Public & Others 7 considered for GAIL’s previous tariff order. SUG gas cost considered in
GAIL’s tariff order was a combination of APM gas priced at US$ 3.6/mmbtu
Relative Performance
(1.1 mmscmd) and HPHT gas at US$ 6.90/mmbtu (0.45 mmscmd). Blended
250
gas cost arrived at US$ 4.6/mmbtu. GSPL’s tariff order provided for SUG
200
gas cost at US$ 7.63/mmbtu.
150
Government in discussion to mandate 5% green steel production
100 – Management mentioned that government is planning to bring in
50 regulation for steel producers which makes it mandatory for them
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

to produce 5% of total steel production through gas/green fuels. This

would be a great move for increasing India’s gas penetration along with
GAIL India reducing pollution. Indian steel producers annually consume 70 mmt of
Sensex (rebased)
coking coal as fuel.
Siddharth Chauhan Archit Joshi
Research Analyst Research Analyst
siddharth.chauhan@bksec.com archit.joshi@bksec.com

136
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 751,263 718,710 567,302 916,265 1,442,497 1,305,731 1,340,492 1,378,683 11.7 2.8

EBITDA 95,551 83,694 64,451 138,290 66,989 133,747 131,144 151,023 7.0 6.3

PAT 60,257 66,206 48,902 103,640 53,015 88,365 84,103 99,485 8.0 6.1

Margin (%)

Gross margin 21.6 20.2 21.8 22.7 10.7 18.0 17.6 18.7 – –

EBITDA margin 12.7 11.6 11.4 15.1 4.6 10.2 9.8 11.0 – –

PAT margin 8.0 9.2 8.6 11.3 3.7 6.8 6.3 7.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.0) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 – –

EPS (Rs) 26.7 14.7 11.0 23.3 8.1 13.4 12.8 15.1 (12.8) 6.1

BV (Rs) 195.5 97.5 105.0 125.2 84.6 97.6 105.3 114.4 (13.0) 8.2

RoCE (%) 18.5 13.9 10.7 19.9 8.8 13.8 12.0 13.3 – –

RoA (%) 15.6 12.0 9.2 17.3 7.6 11.9 10.4 11.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 14.3 15.0 10.8 20.3 9.5 14.7 12.6 13.8 – –

Net profit margin 8.0 9.2 8.6 11.3 3.7 6.8 6.3 7.2 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/GAIL (India) - 4QFY24 Result Update - 18 May 24.pdf

137
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Galaxy Surfactants

Price (Rs) 2,451
Maintaining the long-term narrative
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GALX.NS
• Volume in FY24 was driven by new customers and getting bigger
Bloomberg code GALSURF IN
wallet share from existing customers.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,042
• The company anticipates a 6-8% volume growth in FY25E, with EBITDA/
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.0 tonne expected to be in the range of Rs 20,500-21,500.
Issued shares (mn) 35 • The company believes specialty portfolio to grow and have a better
Target price (Rs) 3,485 product mix in FY25 with recovery in RoW market with stocking up
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M inventory.
Absolute (5) (3) (1) • FY25 capex is projected to be between Rs 1.5-2.0 bn.
Relative (5) (4) (19) • The company remains focused on home care, with new product
Valuation Ratios launches paving the way forward, supported by its long-standing
relationships with all custom manufacturers.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The specialty portfolio, primarily dominated by the US and Europe,
EPS (Rs) 85.0 96.5 110.7
appears to have reached its bottom and is expected to see good
+/- (%) (20.9) 13.5 14.8 volume growth, which will further enhance EBITDA/tonne.
PER (x) 28.8 25.4 22.1 • Competitors like BASF and Aarti Surfactant do not pose a threat due to
Price/Book (x) 4.0 3.6 3.2 their lack of diversified product portfolio.

EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.0 1.9 • 6 patents in FY24 which will take one-three years to scale-up blossom
into market opportunities. The company has few molecules in the
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.6 15.5 13.7
last stage of capability
Major Shareholders (%) • Establishing new subsidiaries will enable the company to stay
Promoters 71 connected with customers and distributors, providing insights into the
FPIs 4 on-ground situation.
MFs 12
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 13

Relative Performance
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Galaxy Surfactants
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

138
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 27,630 25,964 27,841 36,857 44,640 37,944 42,456 46,065 6.5 10.2
EBITDA 3,534 3,689 4,488 4,007 5,683 4,622 5,582 6,317 5.5 16.9
PAT 1,910 2,304 3,021 2,628 3,810 3,015 3,421 3,926 9.6 14.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 29.5 33.9 36.3 29.8 30.6 32.1 32.5 33.0 – –

EBITDA margin 12.8 14.2 16.1 10.9 12.7 12.2 13.1 13.7 – –

PAT margin 6.9 8.9 10.9 7.1 8.5 7.9 8.1 8.5 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) – –

EPS (Rs) 53.9 65.0 85.2 74.1 107.5 85.0 96.5 110.7 9.6 14.1
BV (Rs) 247.3 301.2 367.1 444.1 531.0 614.7 686.2 767.0 20.0 11.7
RoCE (%) 27.7 23.9 25.2 18.8 23.2 17.2 18.3 19.1 – –

RoA (%) 20.3 18.5 20.0 14.7 18.5 14.1 15.1 15.9 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 23.9 23.7 25.5 18.3 22.0 14.8 14.8 15.2 – –

Net profit margin 6.9 8.9 10.9 7.1 8.5 7.9 8.1 8.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Galaxy Surfactants - 4QFY24 Result Update - 22 May
24.pdf

139
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data GHCL

Price (Rs) 504
No signs of near-term recovery
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GHCH.BO
• The company guided for a 5-7% volume growth part of which will be
Bloomberg code GHCL IN
fuelled by the greenfield Soda Ash project of 5 lakh tpa.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 578
• The management sees EBITDA margins at 31/32% in FY25.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.9
• The company is likely to sell 100,000 tonnes of soda ash for use in
Issued shares (mn) 96 F&B, pharma, textile, fuel gas treatment, and tannery industries. It
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M has received an order from an oil company, which is expected to be
Absolute (2) (1) 4 a repeat order. Additionally, demand is anticipated to come from
Relative (2) (2) (14) thermal power plants.

Valuation Ratios • China’s demand for soda ash grew by 10% last year due to increased use
in solar glass and lithium (EV) sectors. Prices in China have bottomed
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
out and are starting to rise, while global prices have remained flat for
EPS (Rs) 68.2 119.4 82.9
the past six months.
+/- (%) 98.6 75.2 (30.5) • Bromine project with expected revenue of Rs 600-630 mn on a 2,800
PER (x) 7.4 4.2 6.1 tonnes capacity.

Price/Book (x) 1.6 1.2 1.6 • GHCL acquired Ajmera limestone mine and is actively looking for
acquisition in allied products.
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.0 1.2
• Expectation of range-bound market in CY24-25, with potential upside
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 3.1 4.6
in future years. Positive outlook on solar glass and lithium carbonate
Major Shareholders (%) demand.
Promoters 19 • The company continues to focus on cost competitiveness and
FPIs 25 efficiency to maintain margins. Optimistic about growth opportunities
MFs 7 in India despite global challenges with uncertainty in pricing and
BFSI’s 1 realisation due to market conditions.
Public & Others 48

Relative Performance
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

GHCL
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

140
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 33,413 33,051 24,912 30,521 45,509 34,465 0.6

EBITDA 7,594 7,456 6,039 7,363 15,187 8,997 3.4

PAT 3,498 3,966 3,261 6,501 11,416 7,939 17.8

Margin (%)

Gross margin 57.7 56.0 54.4 61.5 65.0 62.7 –

EBITDA margin 22.7 22.6 24.2 24.1 33.4 26.1 –

PAT margin 10.5 12.0 13.1 21.3 25.1 23.0 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 33.6 41.7 34.3 68.2 119.4 82.9 17.8

BV (Rs) 184.4 226.2 246.6 309.1 413.8 311.2 11.0

RoCE (%) 21.3 35.1 14.0 16.9 32.7 19.9 –

RoA (%) 9.2 29.5 12.1 14.5 28.1 17.9 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 18.2 36.9 14.5 24.6 33.1 22.9 –

Net profit margin 10.5 12.0 13.1 21.3 25.1 23.0 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Glenmark Life Sciences

Price (Rs) 840
New management and CDMO opportunities to drive future
BSE Sensex 75,410 growth
Reuters code GLEM.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code GLS IN • New management – The new promoter’s post-acquisition by Nirma
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,239 Ltd., is expected to bring in newer energies as they plan to double the
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.6 revenues in the next four-five years. (FY24 – Rs 22 bn revenues).
Issued shares (mn) 123 • Generics CDMO focus – With several potential drugs going off-
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M patent by 2030, the company is working on filing those products

Absolute 2 (4) 56 and preparing their facilities for the same, as they would offer an
opportunity size of minimum TAM of US$ 20 bn. This is a growing
Relative (0) (7) 34
opportunity which is being targeted closely by the company.
Valuation Ratios
• The company operates majorly in generic products, but now as they
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
progress towards a new journey and newer growth trajectory, they
Adj. EPS (Rs) 35.6 38.1 38.4 plan to enter complex niche products in several therapies, attracting

Growth (4.8) 11.5 0.8

higher margins, which would potentially make it one of the leading
margin players in API market (currently in FY24 the company ended
PER 12.3 22.0 21.9
with EBITDA margins of ~30%).
Price/Book 2.5 4.8 4.4
• Balance sheet position – The company continues to remain a net
Yield (%) 2.5 2.5 0.0 debt free company. For FY24, they generated a free cash flow of ~Rs 3

EV/Sales 2.2 4.7 4.4

bn with cash balance of Rs 3 bn.
• Capex – Targeting a capex of Rs 3.4 bn for FY25, towards greenfield
EV/EBITDA 7.6 15.7 14.9
site in Sholapur (Rs 1.7 bn) and remaining would be towards brownfield
Major Shareholders (%) projects in Ankleshwar and Dahej.
Promoters 83
• Revenues are expected to grow in mid-teens for FY25.
FPIs 5
• Custom synthesis – Revenue is driven by only 3 projects that are
MFs 1
sizeable. Planning to add another 8 to 10 projects in the next four
Public & Others 11
years which would drive up revenues to about Rs 5-6 bn. With more
Relative Performance levers added, they aim at achieving Rs 10 bn revenues in the near
1,000
future as well.
900
800 • Multi-year deal signed – In their CDMO business, the company has
700
600 signed multi-year definitive agreement with an innovator for supply
500
400 of API. Expect the contract to commercialise in 3QFY25. They are
300 also in the middle of multiple discussions ongoing with companies
200
globally for additional business opportunities.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Other business segments – External business saw a de-growth of

Glenmark Life Sciences 5.2% YoY on account of delay of shipments due to Red Sea crisis,
Sensex (rebased) expect to grow on back of EU and LatAm. Generic API business was
impacted due to the Red Sea crisis and de-growth in GPL’s business
(erstwhile parent/promoter).

Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Regulated markets contributed 83% in 4QFY24, and its growth was driven by YoY growth in Europe and
LatAm.
• The company has filed 520 DMFs and CEPs across major markets; United States, Europe, Japan, Russia,
Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, China and Australia.
• The company added 6 new products to the development grid, of which 4 products are High potent API
(HP API)/Oncology class of drugs and 2 are synthetic small molecules. The HP API portfolio now extends
to 17 products with an addressable market of US$ 37 bn (Source: IQVIA, MAT December 2023), out of
which 3 products are validated, and 4 products are in advanced stage of development.
• Development progressing for iron complexes in the grid. Filing completed for 1 iron complex with 2
others in advanced stages of development. Total addressable market of US$ 2.5 bn.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 8,864 15,373 18,852 21,232 21,612 22,832 20.8

EBITDA 2,477 4,720 5,911 6,161 6,423 6,742 22.2
PAT 1,961 3,140 3,520 4,193 4,674 4,709 19.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 56.1 –

EBITDA margin 27.9 30.7 31.4 29.0 29.7 29.5 –
PAT margin 22.1 20.4 18.7 19.7 21.6 20.6 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) –

EPS (Rs) 18.1 29.0 32.6 34.2 38.1 38.4 16.2
BV (Rs) 8.2 37.3 69.8 167.7 174.5 190.3 87.7
RoCE (%) 527.8 185.6 96.8 42.2 29.9 26.9 –
RoA (%) – – – – – 33.0 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 451.0 127.8 60.9 29.8 22.3 20.2 –

Net profit margin 22.1 20.4 18.7 19.7 21.6 20.6 –
Asset turnover (x) – – – – – 1.6 –
Leverage factor (x) – – – – – 0.6 –

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Share Data GMM Pfaudler

Price (Rs) 1,234
Going global
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GMMP.BO
• The company has diversified its business to mitigate the slowdown
Bloomberg code GMM IN
in the chemicals sector by focusing on non-traditional industry
Market cap. (US$ mn) 665 segments.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.5 • The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and
Issued shares (mn) 45 cost control measures to maintain stable margins and profitability.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The board is eyeing a strategic plan for near-term with a focus on
Absolute (14) (5) (16) topline growth and margin expansion. Further, its mixing business has
Relative (14) (5) (34) shown good traction from pharma, chemicals, metals and wastewater
treatment industries.
Valuation Ratios
• On the business combination front the future prospectus include:
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
o Consolidating the mixing business in-line with its strategy and
EPS (Rs) 52.0 47.9 35.8
ready for market approach.
+/- (%) 7.4 (8.0) (25.3)
o Service center and global capabilities expansion in order to
PER (x) 23.7 25.8 34.5 enhance the service offerings and increase the customers reach.
PBV (x) 3.4 6.8 5.7 o Entering newer geographies and industries via brownfield
expansion in order to focus on a more sustainable growth and
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2
profitability.
EV/Sales (x) 0.6 1.7 1.6
• The company is focusing on improving its efficiency by better
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 12.4 11.4 managing its cost, market diversification and leveraging new
Major Shareholders (%) technologies.
Promoters 25 • There are some early signs of recovery in the international markets
FPIs 22 especially the European and American market.
MFs 9
BFSI’s 4
Public & Others 40

Relative Performance
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

GMM Pfaudler
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 5,026 5,911 10,011 25,406 31,776 34,465 47.0

EBITDA 770 1,111 1,386 2,839 4,312 4,768 44.0

PAT 509 710 708 760 2,153 1,608 25.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 53.7 57.0 55.3 60.1 59.7 60.0 –

EBITDA margin 15.3 18.8 13.8 11.2 13.6 13.8 –

PAT margin 10.1 12.0 7.1 3.0 6.8 4.7 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.5) (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) (0.1) (0.1) –

EPS (Rs) 34.8 48.6 48.4 52.0 47.9 35.8 0.5

BV (Rs) 184.0 225.1 278.6 361.0 180.6 216.7 3.3

RoCE (%) 27.8 28.5 11.0 9.3 18.8 16.1 –

RoA (%) 18.1 19.9 7.6 6.1 11.9 10.7 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.5 23.7 19.2 16.3 32.2 18.0 –

Net profit margin 10.1 12.0 7.1 3.0 6.8 4.7 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.6 4.0 5.5 4.5 3.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Go Fashion (India)

Price (Rs) 965
Confident of maintaining Same-Cluster-Sales-Growth (SCSG)
BSE Sensex 73,961 of 10% in FY25
Reuters code GOFA.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code GOCOLORS IN To achieve SSSG of 5% and SCSG of 10% in FY25
Market cap. (US$ mn) 624 • Demand remained muted in FY24 with SSSG standing flat at 0%, while
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 SCSG at 10%.
Issued shares (mn) 54 • Based on the current consumption pattern of 1QFY25, management
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M believes to clock SSSG of 5% and SCSG of 10%.
Absolute (12) (15) (11) • Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to drive 3% of SSSG, while 1-2% of
Relative (13) (15) (29) SSSG growth will be volume driven.

Valuation Ratios • SCSG of 10% will be driven by mix of ASP: +5% and volume: +5%.

Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 Scope to expand retail footprint of 1,300-1,400 stores

EPS (Rs) 6.6 15.3 15.3 • At the end of FY24, Go Colors had 714 EBOs across 160 cities.
• Management is confident that there is enough scope of penetration
+/- (%) – 132.6 (0.1)
in India based on the current consumption patterns.
PER (x) 146.2 62.9 62.9
• It believes that over the next three-five years, it can expand to 220
PBV (x) 11.9 10.0 8.6 cities with total EBO count at 1,300-1,400 – this implies retail footprint
EV/Sales (x) 12.6 7.7 6.6 expansion of 15% CAGR is possible for the next five years.

EV/EBITDA (x) 41.4 24.0 20.7 • Go Colors brand is strong enough to have 1,400 stores and hence
management believes that it does not need to launch any other new
Major Shareholders (%)
brand for at least next three-five years.
Promoters 53
Per unit metric remain healthy
FPIs 12
MFs 24 • Sales/sq ft/year remain healthy at Rs 20,000 for Go Colors stores.
BFSI’s 8 • The company has been able to reduce its inventory levels from 126
Public & Others 3 days in FY23 to 104 in FY24.

Relative Performance • Currently, rent % revenue remains at 18-19%. It believes ideal level would
1,500 be 15-17%. Thus, we believe that there is scope for the company to save
1,400 on the cost on rental front and hence improve margins.
1,300
1,200 • Bad inventory provisioning is not more than 1% and is reported at gross
1,100 margins level.
1,000
900 • Company sells most of its product at full priced. Hence, its online sales,
800
which predominantly is a discounting channel, contributes only 3% to
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

total sales.
SSSG is to monitor cost while SCSG is to monitor if product sales are
Go Fashion (India)
Sensex (rebased) doing better
• Even though SSSG is a key monitorable in case of a retailer, in case of
Go Fashion, SSSG serves a different purpose.

Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain

Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The company uses SSSG to monitor cost while SCSG to monitor if product performance is good or bad.
• ~55% of the company’s EBOs are under cluster model.
• If within a micro market customers can’t drive through a vehicle easily, the company prefers to have
multiple stores in a vicinity, thus forming one cluster. Ex: In Dadar, Mumbai market there are multiple Go
Colors stores since the customer can’t easily drive through that market.
Not many focused women’s bottoms only player
• Though there are many companies which sell women’s bottom wear, Go Fashion remains the only
focused player in the organised space.
• Lyra by Lux and Missy by Dollar are some of the players in the mass market while Elleven by TCNS operates
at a price point similar to Go Colors.
Store closures largely on account of termites issue
• Over FY19-23, Go Fashion has closed ~100 EBOs. While store closures in FY21 and FY22 was on account of
COVID, the store closures during the last two years ~30 stores is on account of poor performance and
termites issues.
• Since large amount of fixture at Go Colors’ stores is wooden, termites remain a key issue. After renovation,
even though the store refreshes, it does not necessarily improve the performance. At that time, the
company decides to close onto the stores.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 2,852 3,920 2,507 4,013 6,653 7,628 22

EBITDA 800 1,265 463 1,222 2,123 2,424 25

PAT 310 526 (35) 356 828 827 22

Margin (%)

Gross margin 59.7 59.8 58.5 60.1 60.7 61.7 –

EBITDA margin 28.0 32.3 18.5 30.5 31.9 31.8 –

PAT margin 11.0 13.4 (1.3) 8.9 12.3 10.9 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) –

EPS (Rs) 10.3 2.1 (0.7) 6.6 15.3 15.3 8

BVPS (Rs) 76.1 11.5 52.4 81.2 96.4 111.8 8

RoCE (%) 18.4 19.9 3.5 12.6 19.3 16.6 –

RoA (%) 17.3 18.4 3.3 11.0 16.4 14.5 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 14.6 20.5 (1.2) 9.9 17.3 14.7 –

Net Profit margin 10.9 13.4 (1.4) 8.9 12.4 10.8 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Go Fashion (India) - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 06 May
24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Godawari Power & Ispat

Price (Rs) 967
Unlocking value in Iron Ore: GODPI – Seizing opportunities,
BSE Sensex 73,961 driving growth
Reuters code GDPI.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code GODPI IN • For FY24, operating margins have increased by 4%, attributed to higher
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,576 operating efficiency driven by investments in solar power plants, new
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.6 turbines, and increased capacity in the steel plant.
Issued shares (mn) 136 • The improvement in margins is significant, considering the challenges
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M such as a fall in sponge iron prices (~12%) throughout the year.

Absolute 9 30 169 • The company’s plans are to enhance its capacity of iron ore mining,
Relative 9 30 151 pellet and integrated steel plant by 3.65 mnt, 3 mnt (2 mnt now and 1
mnt in the next phase) and 2 mnt, respectively, taking the total capacity
Valuation Ratios
to 6 mnt, 4.7 mnt and 2.5 mnt, respectively. Notably, enhanced iron
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
ore mining capacity shall be operational on receipt of environment
EPS (Rs) 115.0 59.5 73.6 clearance and pellet plant to be completed by 1QFY26.

Change (%) 133.3 (48.3) 23.7 • The company’s SMS revamping has been completed and capacity
has been increased to 0.525 mnt from 0.4 mnt. On the other hand, de-
PER (x) 8.4 16.2 13.1
bottlenecking capex for rolling mill modification at Urla is expected to
PBV (x) 3.8 3.2 2.7
be completed by 1QFY25.
Div./Yield (%) 0.9 0.4 0.5 • Khairagarh’s 23 MW solar power plant has been commissioned and
EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.1 2.1 synchronised with grid on 06 February 2024. Another 20 MW power
plant is expected to be completed by June 2024 in Khairagarh which
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 10.6 8.5
will address the captive power requirement of fabrication and
Major Shareholders (%) galvanizing plant located at Urla industrial area. Out of total 60 MW
Promoters 63 capacity, 52 MW has been successfully commissioned at the Hira
FPIs 6 Ferro Alloys Limited facility in Bemetara. The remaining capacity could
MFs 1 not be commissioned because of the non-availability of contiguous
BFSI’s 1
land. Meanwhile, the company is making efforts to purchase the land
Public & Others 29
for the remaining 8 MW capacity and the same will be installed and
Relative Performance commissioned in due course.
1,100 • Iron ore and pellet prices have seen fluctuations, with a recent uptick
900 attributed to factors like increased domestic demand and supply
700 chain disruptions.
500
• Investments in operational efficiency, such as beneficiation plants at
300
mine sites, aim to reduce transportation costs and improve product
100
quality.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Cost management strategies include annual employee increments

and provisions for senior-level benefits, alongside monitoring volatile
Godawari Power and Ispat
Sensex (rebased) raw material prices.

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The company maintains a positive outlook for future profitability, driven by capacity expansion,
operational efficiencies, and market trends.
• Regulatory approvals and environmental factors, including delays due to elections and pollution board
clearances, impact project timelines for Ari Dongri mine.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E CAGR (%)
(FY19-FY24)

Financials

Sales 33,216 32,885 39,576 53,992 57,530 54,554 10.4

EBITDA 7,894 6,243 11,370 18,642 11,327 13,281 11.0
PAT 2,607 1,772 6,395 14,819 7,933 9,356 29.1
Margin (%)

Gross Margin 44.8 44.8 53.3 55.7 41.5 45.8 –

EBITDA Margin 23.8 19.0 28.7 34.5 19.7 24.3 –
PAT Margin 7.8 5.4 16.2 27.4 13.8 17.1 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.3 1.1 0.4 (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 20.1 13.7 49.3 115.0 59.5 73.6 29.6
BV (Rs) 90.1 106.2 156.9 255.3 301.1 360.5 31.9
ROCE (%) 42.3 15.6 32.3 49.3 26.0 27.4 –
RoA (%) 37.7 14.1 29.7 42.8 22.2 24.0 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) 44.6 13.9 37.5 55.8 21.4 21.9 –

Net Profit Margin 7.8 5.4 16.2 27.6 13.4 16.8 –
Asset Turnover (x) 1.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 –
Leverage Factor (x) 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 –

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Share Data Grasim Industries

Price (Rs) 2,316
Aggressive scaling up Birla Opus
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GRAS.BO
• Renewable business: Out of the cumulative installed capacity of 900
Bloomberg code GRASIM IN
MW, ~45% is used within the Aditya Birla Group companies and rest 55%
Market cap. (US$ mn) 18,550 is for the power utilities majorly in three states viz. Gujarat, Karnataka
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 22.2 and Gujarat. Power utilisation is improving as the company is doing
Issued shares (mn) 658 hybrid power projects – wind and solar.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Chlor Alkali business: In the recent past, there have been new
Absolute (4) 6 35 capacity addition in the chlor alkali industry which has resulted in an

Relative (4) 5 17 oversupply situation. This resulted in weaker price realisation. Once the
China and Europe demand picks up, price realisation are expected to
Valuation Ratios
improve.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Increasing share of specialty business to aid stability in margins:
EPS (Rs) 115.7 105.0 93.3 In chemicals business, the company is focusing on increasing the
+/- (%) 63.9 (9.2) (11.2) share of specialty chemical business as well as increasing the share
of captive chlorine from ~60% to 70%.
PER (x) 20.0 22.1 24.9
• Focus on improving utilisations: The company is focused on
PBV (x) 2.0 1.9 1.7
increasing the utilisation levels of chlorine business as going forward
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.5 the demand from the derivative-led specialty business is expected to
EV/Sales (x) 2.2 2.0 2.0 remain strong.

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 10.7 9.8 • CPVC Resin plant: The project work of Lubrizol CPVC resin plant for
Phase I of 50 ktpa (of total 100 ktpa) at Vilayat is progressing as per plan.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Birla Opus: The paints business is expected to be operationally positive
Promoters 43
by FY28 with a topline of Rs 100 bn. The company has already set up
FPIs 17
75 depots across India and are operational. By FY25, 150 operational
MFs 6
depots are expected to be across India.
BFSI’s 11
Public & Others 23 • Capex plans: In FY24, the major capex was towards the Paints business
and by FY25 capex towards paints is expected to be completed.
Relative Performance
In FY25, the total capex is expected to be Rs 40 bn of which Rs 30 bn
2,600
2,400 would be towards paints business and the rest would be towards
2,200 other businesses. From FY26, the capex is expected to come down
2,000
1,800 substantially.
1,600
1,400 • Improvement in realisations: The two core businesses of Grasim i.e.
1,200
1,000
Cellulosic fibres and Chemical business are not in the best of their
cycles currently. The caustic realisations are expected to improve
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

going forward.
Grasim Industries • Brownfield expansion in CSF: The Cellulosic Fibres (CSF) are currently
Sensex (rebased)
close to maximum capacity utilisation and may see some brownfield
capacity expansion going forward.
Archit Joshi Roshan Nair
Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com roshan.nair@bksec.com

150
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key triggers
• Strong ramp-up in the paints business.
• Improvement in realisations in the Cellulosic Fibres and chemical business.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials
Sales 721,675 742,686 757,327 945,887 1,164,571 1,309,785 12.7
EBITDA 160,197 172,422 186,289 204,314 215,891 271,951 11.2
PAT 16,865 43,928 43,048 75,498 68,273 56,245 27.2
Margin (%)
Gross margin 77.7 81.4 83.5 81.8 80.8 80.6 –
EBITDA margin 22.2 23.2 24.6 21.6 18.5 20.8 –
PAT margin 5.9 7.8 6.1 8.1 5.9 4.7 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 –
EPS (Rs) 64.8 88.2 70.6 115.7 105.0 93.3 7.6
BV (Rs) 848.1 860.9 995.2 1,149.8 1,195.9 1,335.1 9.5
RoCE (%) 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.4 7.0 –
RoA (%) 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.3 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 2.9 10.3 7.6 10.8 9.0 7.4 –
Net profit margin 5.9 7.8 6.1 8.1 5.9 4.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 –
Leverage factor (x) 3.9 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Gujarat Fluorochemicals

Price (Rs) 3,038
Growth to be driven by fluoropolymers
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GUJL.BO
• Gujarat Fluorochemicals (GFL) has guided an EBITDA of Rs 18.0-19.0 bn
Bloomberg code FLUOROCH IN
for FY25 with EBITDA margins of 25-30%.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4,000
• New fluoropolymers business which is now at a capacity of 1,400 tpm
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.1 will propel growth for FY25 and FY26.
Issued shares (mn) 110 • The company has planned a capex of Rs 13.0 bn (Rs 8.0 bn in battery
Target price (Rs) 4,215 chemicals and Rs 5.0 bn in the standalone business majorly for new
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Fluoropolymers and backward integration) for FY25.
Absolute (16) (18) (11) • In the new battery chemicals division, GFL plans to invest Rs 60.0
Relative (16) (18) (29) bn cumulatively over the next four-five years with 2x asset turns at
optimum utilisations levels and margins upwards of 25%.
Valuation Ratios
• De-stocking in fluoropolymers is phasing out.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• GFL’s battery grade PVDF is in final stages with it currently undergoing
EPS (Rs) 39.6 91.6 140.5
electrochemical testing with approval cycles anywhere close to 6-12
+/- (%) (67.3) 131.6 53.3 months.
PER (x) 76.9 33.2 21.7 • According to the management, refrigerant gas prices in the US
Price/Book (x) 5.6 4.8 4.0 market are not expected to go back to FY23 levels due to reduction in
duty and cut in quotas.
EV/Sales (x) 8.3 5.6 4.4
• The company’s VCM to VDC project has been deferred now as VDC
EV/EBITDA (x) 37.0 20.2 14.0
and R-142 prices are at lower levels. This project is expected to be
Major Shareholders (%) taken up in 2HFY26/FY27.
Promoters 64
FPIs 5
MFs 7
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 23

Relative Performance
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Gujarat Fluorochemicals
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

152
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 27,293 26,064 26,505 39,536 56,847 42,808 62,964 79,574 9.4 36.3

EBITDA 7,882 4,391 5,959 11,685 20,472 9,548 17,367 24,917 3.9 61.5

PAT 4,284 2,111 3,643 7,874 13,288 4,349 10,067 15,437 0.3 88.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 72.1 67.3 66.5 69.3 72.4 66.0 66.0 68.0 – –

EBITDA margin 28.9 16.8 22.5 29.6 36.0 22.3 27.6 31.3 – –

PAT margin 15.7 8.5 13.7 19.9 23.4 10.2 16.0 19.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 – –

EPS (Rs) 39.0 19.2 33.2 71.7 120.9 39.6 91.6 140.5 0.3 88.4

BV (Rs) 319.4 338.2 318.0 387.4 502.3 540.2 628.5 765.1 11.1 19.0

RoCE (%) 16.0 9.6 11.2 19.6 28.3 9.3 16.8 21.9 – –

RoA (%) 14.5 8.4 9.9 17.5 24.9 8.3 15.1 19.6 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 12.3 5.8 10.1 20.3 27.2 7.6 15.7 20.2 – –

Net profit margin 15.7 8.5 13.7 19.9 23.4 10.2 16.0 19.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Gujarat Fluorochemicals - 4QFY24 Result Update - 06
May 24.pdf

153
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Gulf Oil Lubricants India

Price (Rs) 935
Focus on product premiumisation
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GOLU.NS
• Gulf Oil Lubricants India is the no. 2 lubricant player with a strong
Bloomberg code GOLI IN
distribution reach and 90k touchpoints in FY24.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 551
• The company has a diversified product portfolio along with product
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.4 premiumisation, volumes at a 14% CAGR over the past 15 years;
Issued shares (mn) 49 however, over 15 years, the price realisation has almost been flat.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The company has grown from supplying 2 OEMs in 2007 to 40 OEMs
Absolute (9) (7) 105 with a 300+ auto distribution network, 500+ B2B customers and 10.2k
Relative (9) (7) 87 Gulf Oil and car and bike shops.

Valuation Ratios • Gulf Oil has a market share of 9% each in diesel engine oil and
motorcycle, also supply to JSW plants based on steel produced.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The revenue mix for FY24 was driven by 40% from Automotive, 15% from
EPS (Rs) 43.0 47.3 62.8
industrial segment and 20% from personal mobility. The greatest
+/- (%) 5.5 10.1 32.7 margins are driven from personal mobility segment with maximum
PER (x) 21.7 19.7 14.9 potential to grow in this space.

PBV (x) 4.4 3.9 3.4 • Cost optimisation would lead to higher margins. All white spaces
have completely been filled between Gulf Oil and Castrol. And there is
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 2.7 2.1
good headroom to grow significantly along with industrial segment
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.4 1.3 expecting good volume growth.
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 12.6 10.0 • Acquisitions
Major Shareholders (%) o 26% stake in ElectreeFI with an investment of Rs 150 mn,
Promoters 72 o 7.5% stake in Indra Renewable slow home AC chargers with an
FPIs 7 investment of Rs 300 mn.
MFs 4 o 51% stake in Tirex with an investment of Rs 1.0 bn.
BFSI’s 1
• Margin could slightly be lower due to Adblue volumes picking up
Public & Others 16
significantly which overall have a slightly lower margin and could
Relative Performance drag the blended margin also slightly lower.
1,300
• There were 6 instances of price hikes in FY23 and once in FY24,
1,100
possibility of further price hikes are anticipated.
900
700
500
300
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Gulf Oil Lubricants India

Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

154
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 17,058 16,442 16,522 21,916 29,991 33,012 14.1

EBITDA 2,831 2,872 2,652 2,855 3,428 4,210 8.3
PAT 1,778 2,025 2,001 2,111 2,323 3,082 11.6
Margin (%)

Gross margin 45.0 49.6 46.2 40.1 37.7 41.0 –

EBITDA margin 16.6 17.5 16.1 13.0 11.4 12.8 –
PAT margin 10.4 12.3 12.1 9.6 7.7 9.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3)

EPS (Rs) 36.2 41.3 40.8 43.0 47.3 62.8 11.6
BV (Rs) 119.6 155.1 177.2 212.5 240.1 278.5 18.4
RoCE (%) 64.9 28.2 25.1 23.1 23.2 26.2
RoA (%) 50.8 22.4 19.6 18.2 18.1 19.6
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 60.6 30.0 24.5 22.1 20.9 24.2 –

Net profit margin 10.4 12.3 12.1 9.6 7.7 9.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 3.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Happiest Minds Technologies

Price (Rs) 789
Witnessing strong traction in CPG vertical and expects margin
BSE Sensex 73,961 in the range of 22-24% for FY25…
Reuters code HAPP.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code HAPPSTMN IN • Happiest Minds Technologies (HAPPSTMNDS) has established a new
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,439 vertical organisation structure with six industry groups: Manufacturing
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.3 and Energy & Utilities, Healthcare and Lifesciences, Retail, CPG &
Issued shares (mn) 152 Logistics, BFSI, Hi-Tech & Media and the EdTech vertical.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Happiest Minds will continue to drive organic growth through

Absolute (3) (7) (14) investments in verticals, people, capabilities, and particularly the
Generative AI Business Service.
Relative (3) (7) (33)
• Many customer wins are expected to transition into larger
Valuation Ratios
engagements, acting as a pipeline for larger opportunities, which
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
boosts confidence in organic growth.
EPS (Rs) 12.7 16.1 16.7 • The company has exceeded its guidance range of 22-24% for the 16th
+ / -(%) 7.9 27.1 3.7 consecutive quarter and has managed to sustain margins despite
challenges such as pay increases, strong net additions, campus hires,
PER (x) 62.2 49.0 47.2
and continued payout of committed variable pay.
PBV (x) 16.9 13.5 7.9
• In the Retail CPG vertical, there is substantial investment in automation,
Div./ Yield (%) 0.6 0.5 0.7 AI utilisation, customer outreach, and network building, with the
EV/ Sales (x) 9.7 7.5 6.5 company seeing strong traction in the CPG space.

EV/ EBITDA (x) 41.2 29.7 31.4 • The PureSoft acquisition will enhance capabilities in BFSI, Healthcare,
and Life Sciences, enabling the company to target new clients in these
Major Shareholders (%)
verticals while expanding business with existing customers.
Promoters 50
• The Macmillan acquisition strengthens Happiest Minds’ EdTech vertical
FPIs 7
and deepens its relationship with the Macmillan Group, a global leader
MFs 1
in learning, education, and publishing, positioning Happiest Minds as
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 41
a strategic partner.
• The company is seeing an increase in the cohorts of large customers.
Relative Performance
• The company anticipates revenue growth of 35-40% for FY25, with
1,400
1,300 margins between 22-24%.
1,200
1,100 • Utilisation is hovering around ~76%, which presents a clear opportunity
1,000
900 for improvement. Attrition on a 12-month basis dropped to 13% in
800 4QFY24 from 19.8% the previous year, and the company expects these
700
600 levels to continue.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Happiest Minds has strengthened its relationship with a global

hyperscaler by expanding its presence into a second business
Happiest Minds Technologies
division to design and configure an end-to-end secure and scalable
Sensex (rebased)
connected vehicle platform on their cloud platform.

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

156
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Growth through both organic and inorganic means is integral to the company’s vision of becoming a US$
1 bn enterprise by FY31.
• In AI space, there are 14 active customers across various industries covering 20+ projects. The company
is seeing significant traction in AI and anticipates that some of these conversations will progress to POCs
and quickly move into implementation and large projects as the year advances.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 5,904 6,982 7,734 10,937 14,293 16,247 22.4

EBITDA 548 971 1,890 2,577 3,589 3,359 36.4

PAT 142 717 1,625 1,812 2,310 2,484 34.6

Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 9.3 13.9 24.4 23.6 25.1 20.7 –

EBIT Margin 5.1 11.0 21.5 20.6 22.2 17.1 –

PAT Margin 2.4 10.3 21.0 16.6 16.2 15.3 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 2.4 (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.8) (0.8) –

EPS (Rs.) 1.2 5.4 11.5 12.4 15.9 16.7 32.8

BV (Rs.) (8.8) 26.0 39.6 46.7 58.6 59.6 23.0

RoCE (%) (324.7) 55.3 35.4 32.1 34.8 26.1 –

RoA (%) 14.5 16.7 23.3 22.0 22.9 16.9 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (43.0) 72.0 40.0 29.9 30.7 21.4 –

Net profit margin 2.4 10.3 21.0 16.6 16.2 15.3 –

Asset Turnover (x) 2.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 –

Leverage factor (x) (6.3) 4.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Happy Forgings

Price (Rs) 1,116
Diversification and exports remain key triggers to sustain
BSE Sensex 73,961 margins
Reuters code HAPY.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code HAPPYFOR IN • Machined components and Industrial mix: Contribution of machined
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,260 products increased from 79% in FY19 to 85% in FY24. Share of industrial
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.0 business too increased from 4% in FY19 to 12% in FY24.
Issued shares (mn) 94 • Passenger vehicle segment: While the PV segment contributed just
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M 1% in FY24, share is expected to improve to 5% in FY25. Management

Absolute 18 20 – expects 8% to 10% contribution to sales from this segment in the next
two years. Happy Forgings has recently won an order from a leading
Relative 18 20 –
OEM to supply e axles.
Valuation Ratios
• Growth: Management expects a growth of 15% to 20% in FY25 driven by
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
rising utilisation, capacity expansion, and acquiring new customers.
EPS (Rs) 26.8 32.2 35.8 • Price pass-through: Ensures stability in margin profile, focusing on
+/- (%) 21.0 20.1 11.1 complex, safety-critical, heavy-forged, and high-precision machine
components led by pass-through price mechanism.
PER (x) 40.1 33.4 30.0
• Machining capacity: Current machining capacity stands at 51k
PBV (x) 8.1 6.5 5.4
tonnes in FY24. Management expects to add another 11k tonnes in
Div./Yield (%) - - - FY25, thereby further improving machining mix.
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 21.3 18.7 • Exports: Exports currently constitute 20% of revenue, which is expected
Major Shareholders (%) to increase to 28-30% over the next two years. The business is evenly
split between PV (40-45%) and industrial sectors (55-60%). Growth will
Promoters 79
be driven by new orders, primarily from Europe and North America.
FPIs 1
MFs 7 • Realisation/kg: Realisation per kg has increased from Rs 165 to Rs 245
BFSI’s 10 over the past four years, with a significant contribution from higher
Public & Others 3 machining content.

Relative Performance
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Mar-24

May-24
May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

Happy Forgings
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

158
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 CAGR (%)
(FY19-23)
Financials

Sales 7,503 5,581 5,850 8,601 11,965 12.4

EBITDA 2,054 1,424 1,587 2,309 3,409 13.5
PAT 954 796 864 1,423 2,087 21.6
Margin (%)
Gross margin 55.1 55.3 57.0 54.8 54.0 –
EBITDA margin 27.4 25.5 27.1 26.8 28.5 –
PAT margin 12.7 14.3 14.8 16.5 17.4 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 –
EPS (Rs) 10.7 8.9 9.7 15.9 23.3 21.6
BV (Rs) 53.5 62.4 72.1 88.0 110.4 19.9
RoCE (%) 31.8 18.6 16.1 21.8 26.2 –
RoA (%) – – – – – –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 28.8 15.4 13.4 19.9 23.5 –
Net profit margin 12.7 14.3 14.8 16.5 17.4 –
Asset turnover (x) – – – – – –
Leverage factor (x) – – – – – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Havells India

Price (Rs) 1,907
Lloyd profitability key monitorable
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code HVEL.BO
• Demand momentum seen in March 2024 for summer products like
Bloomberg code HAVL IN
Fans and RACs continued in April 2024 too due to continuous heat
Market cap. (US$ mn) 14,326 waves and soaring temperatures.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 20.2 • The company has seen strong pick-up in secondary sales too during
Issued shares (mn) 627 late summer. It expects to post better growth in core Havells portfolio
Target price (Rs) 1,747 as consumer demand recovers gradually.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Lloyd: Business has been progressing well on its journey of growth and
Absolute 15 25 46 profitability. Primary sales remained strong and secondary demand
Relative 15 24 28 picked up, boosting growth in May.
• It expects profitability in Lloyd business to sustain going ahead with
Valuation Ratios
focus on cost optimisation. It is expecting channel to run out of
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
inventory in June due to encouraging response. Market share gains
EPS (Rs) 20.4 25.5 31.8 will remain priority over profitability.
+/- (%) 18 25 24 • ECD: There was encouraging support from channel partners for Fans
PER (x) 93.8 74.7 60.1 stocking during April and May. Owing to this strong growth, it has not
taken any price hikes in Fans portfolio till May but expects some pricing
PBV (x) 16.1 14.4 12.8
action in June.
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.7
• Cables & Wires: Robust infrastructure activities and real estate
EV/Sales (x) 6.3 5.6 4.9 development is supporting growth for cables, whereas wires demand
EV/EBITDA (x) 63.1 50.0 40.1 is coming from industries. The new capacity for cables is expected to
come online from June 2024 onwards.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The company has planned to incur capex of ~Rs 8 bn mainly towards
Promoters 59
its core categories.
FPIs 25
MFs 4 • In terms of distribution, it aims to be present omni-channel due
BFSI’s 6 to equally high growth opportunity from all the geographies and
Public & Others 6 platforms. Growth from e-commerce and modern retail has been
disproportionately high especially in newly launched products.
Relative Performance
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Havells India - VC
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 100,734 94,290 104,279 138,885 168,684 185,499 206,604 233,685 13.8 12.2

EBITDA 11,844 10,271 15,653 17,576 16,030 18,453 23,137 28,613 7.9 24.5

PAT 7,891 7,327 10,396 11,947 10,750 12,732 15,976 19,871 8.0 24.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 37.6 38.1 37.9 32.4 30.8 32.4 35.0 35.0 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 11.8 10.9 15.0 12.7 9.5 9.9 11.2 12.2 – –

PAT margin 7.8 7.8 10.0 8.6 6.4 6.9 7.7 8.5 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) – –

EPS (Rs) 12.6 11.7 16.6 19.1 17.2 20.4 25.5 31.8 8.0 24.9

BV (Rs) 67.1 68.9 82.8 95.7 105.7 118.9 132.4 149.1 12.0 12.0

RoCE (%) 26.8 19.7 27.8 25.3 20.6 22.6 25.4 28.3 – –

RoA (%) 16.9 13.0 18.9 17.1 13.7 14.9 16.9 19.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 19.9 17.2 21.9 21.4 17.1 18.1 20.3 22.6 – –

Net profit margin 7.8 7.8 10.0 8.6 6.4 6.9 7.7 8.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Havells India - 4QFY24 Result Update - 30 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data HDFC Asset Management Company

Price (Rs) 3,884
Strong growth levers
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code HDFA.BO
• The difference between the cumulative yield on the overall book and
Bloomberg code HDFCAMC IN
flow is narrowing. New flows are coming in at a yield of early 50 bps.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 9,939
• The yield on the latest NFO is marginally lower than the cumulative
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 21.2 yield due to the mismatch between the expected and actual flows
Issued shares (mn) 213 that the NFO received, which will get normalised over a period of time.
Target price (Rs) 3,275 • On distribution, Bank channels remain expensive compared to
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M National distributors. The counter share from HDFC Bank is expected to
Absolute (0) 4 98 inch-up from the current 25%. Flow share continues to remain higher
Relative (0) 3 80 than the book market share.
• Flows into debt scheme remains slow.
Valuation Ratios
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E

EPS (Rs) 91.0 104.7 121.8

P/E 42.7 37.1 31.9

BVPS (Rs) 331.4 360.7 394.8

P/B 11.7 10.8 9.8

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 53
FPIs 20
MFs 11
BFSI’s 8
Public & Others 9

Relative Performance
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

HDFC Asset Management Co

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Revenue from oper. 19,152 20,033 18,525 21,154 21,668 25,844 32,162 37,175 7 20

Other Income 1,816 1,402 3,492 3,178 3,158 5,790 4,764 5,031 43 (7)

Total Income 20,968 21,434 22,017 24,332 24,826 31,634 36,926 42,206 10 16

Employee benefits 2,063 2,147 2,194 3,122 3,127 3,541 3,468 3,585 13 1

Other Expenses 2,627 2,044 1,649 2,065 2,429 2,795 3,014 3,277 8 8

Total Expenses 7,221 4,904 4,454 5,779 6,126 6,884 7,053 7,453 9 4

Operating profit 13,876 17,124 18,133 19,178 19,331 25,364 30,502 35,396 10 16

PAT 9,306 12,624 13,331 13,931 14,234 19,427 22,345 25,996 11 16

Shareholder’s funds 30,707 40,293 47,762 55,300 61,078 70,750 77,007 84,286 15 9

AAUM (Rs bn) 3,225 3,729 3,841 4,332 4,337 5,426 6,935 8,267 10 23

As % of AUM (bps)

Revenue from oper. 59.4 53.7 48.2 48.8 50.0 47.6 46.4 45.0 - -

Employee Benefit Exp. 6.4 5.8 5.9 7.2 7.2 6.5 5.0 4.3 - -

Other Expenses 8.1 5.2 4.1 4.6 5.4 5.0 4.2 3.9 - -

PAT 28.9 33.9 34.5 32.2 32.8 35.8 32.2 31.4 - -

Core PAT 27.7 30.4 27.3 26.6 26.9 26.2 27.2 27.0 - -

Ratio (x)

EPS (Rs) 44 60 63 65.3 66.7 91.0 104.7 121.8 11 16

P/E 87 64 61 58.2 57.0 42.7 37.1 31.9 `- -

BVPS (Rs) 145 190 225 259.0 286.1 331.4 360.7 394.8 15 9

P/B 26 20 17 14.7 13.3 11.7 10.8 9.8 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/HDFC Asset Management Company - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 19 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data HDFC Bank

Price (Rs) 1,532
NIM stability guided by asset mix and borrowing replacement
BSE Sensex 73,961 strategies
Reuters code HDBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code HDFCB IN We met Mr Aseem Pant, Vice President (Finance & IR) of HDFC Bank at
Market cap. (US$ mn) 139,584 our Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 400.3 Bank’s management focus for the next two-three years
Issued shares (mn) 7,604 • Enhance Return on Assets (RoA).
Target price (Rs) 1,675 • Ensure the sustainability of retail deposit momentum, client
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M engagement, and service quality, with an increased emphasis on
Absolute 1 9 (5) client servicing.
Relative 1 9 (23) • Increase investments in distribution, personnel, technology, and digital

Valuation Ratios infrastructure.

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E

Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) trajectory
• The bank will prioritise core retail deposits.
Adj. EPS (Rs) 80.0 90.6 94.9
• Retail deposit rates are competitive with other major banks.
BVPS (Rs) 579.5 654.3 732.8
• The bank aims to maximise the growth of retail deposits.
Adj. Book 570.4 646.9 723.6
NAV/share (Rs) • Reducing the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) has been aided by credit
yield and this approach is likely to continue.
PER (x) 19.1 16.9 16.1
Borrowing approach
Price/Book (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1
• The bank will have bond maturities of erstwhile HDFC Limited, which
Price/Adj. book (x) 2.7 2.4 2.1
will mature every year.
Div. Yield (%) 1.2 1.0 1.1 • The bank would have maturities of high-cost borrowings starting in
Major Shareholders (%) FY25.

FPIs 55 Higher employee expenses and ex-gratia provision

MFs 20 • Following a complex merger, the bank experienced high employee
BFSI’s 9 attrition.
Public & Others 16
• A one-time ex-gratia provision has been made to motivate employees.
Relative Performance • Employees who remained with the bank received a one-time ex-
1,900 gratia reward.
1,800
1,700 LDR, Margin and Growth
1,600
1,500 • The bank will not pursue growth for its own sake or base its strategy
1,400 solely on margin targets.
1,300
1,200 • The bank aims for stable NIM, with the business mix influencing the
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

margin. The proportion of retail and CRB segments will also affect the
margin.
HDFC Bank
Sensex (rebased)

Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The transition from borrowings to deposit mobilisation will impact the margin. Eliminating high-cost
borrowings over time could the bank will unleash growth with profitability coming back to pre-merger
levels
Floating provision
• The bank’s additional floating provision is counter-cyclical and not for contingent credit quality situations.
It covers unanticipated events, while contingent provision covers anticipated events.
• Floating provision is at 50 bps of assets, and contingent provision is at 59 bps of assets.
• The bank’s balance sheet is further strengthened with 109 bps of provisions (floating and contingent) of
assets.
Strong credit growth in CRB
• Credit growth in CRB has mainly come from PSL feeder segments, such as micro-enterprises.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 482,432 561,863 648,796 720,096 868,422 1,085,325 1,279,617 1,418,155 17.6 14.3
Operating Expense 261,194 306,975 327,226 374,422 476,521 633,860 741,150 847,641 19.4 15.6
Operating Profit 397,497 487,496 573,618 640,773 704,050 943,875 1,045,331 1,150,468 18.9 10.4
PAT 210,782 262,573 311,165 369,614 441,087 608,123 687,932 721,069 23.6 8.9
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 1,492,064 1,709,860 2,037,208 2,404,189 2,812,660 4,428,985 4,970,897 5,566,718 24.3 12.1
Advances 8,194,012 9,937,029 11,328,366 13,688,209 16,005,859 24,848,615 27,804,703 30,960,468 24.8 11.6
Deposits 9,231,409 11,475,023 13,350,602 15,592,174 18,833,946 23,797,863 27,776,299 32,418,995 20.9 16.7
Total Assets 12,445,407 15,305,113 17,468,705 20,685,351 24,660,815 36,176,231 41,342,046 46,915,067 23.8 13.9
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 39 48 57 67 79 80 91 95 15.3 8.9
BV 274 310 370 433 502 580 654 733 16.2 12.5
ABV 270 306 363 427 496 570 647 724 16.1 12.6
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.6
ROE 16.5 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.0 16.9 14.7 13.7
Margins (%)
NIMs 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.5
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1
NNPA 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
PCR 71.4 72.0 69.8 72.7 75.8 74.1 73.3 72.8
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 15.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 17.1 16.8 17.4 16.8
Total cap. adequacy 17.1 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.3 18.8 19.1 18.0

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/HDFC Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 22 Apr 24.pdf

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Share Data HDFC Life Insurance Company

Price (Rs) 550
On track performance
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code HDFL.BO
• In the last two decades, insurance has sustained its share at ~17% of
Bloomberg code HDFCLIFE IN
financial savings across cycles. Insurance propositions have kept
Market cap. (US$ mn) 14,175 getting sharper and relevant over the years.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 36.7 • ULIP has seen higher interest on account of buoyant markets. Expects
Issued shares (mn) 2,151 ULIPs to trend down from current levels during the year on the back of
Target price (Rs) 705 easing of markets and newer products.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The industry is growing at 12-15%. The company expects to grow at the
Absolute (6) (6) (7) top-end of the range. The company’s focus is on maximising VNB.
Relative (6) (6) (25) • The company has registered healthy growth of 13% in tier 2/3 cities. It is
expected to continue to open branches at newer locations in FY25.
Valuation Ratios
• Competitive intensity is relatively lower in tier 2/3rd markets. Growth of
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
Agency channel is strong in tier 2/3 cities.
Price to VNB 29.0 24.8 21.5
• Management highlighted that any impact of regulatory change in
Price to EV 2.1 1.8 1.6 the surrender value for non-linked products is expected to be largely
Price to Earnings 72.0 62.9 57.9 absorbed through changes undertaken in terms of expense structure.

Price to Book Value 9.5 8.5 7.6

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 50
FPIs 30
MFs 6
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 12

Relative Performance
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

HDFC Life Insurance Co

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Net premium income 289,240 322,236 381,942 468,010 568,788 621,121 697,428 776,346 17.8 11.8
Income from Inv. 90,275 -33,109 326,839 195,118 126,044 383,632 330,959 296,941 n.m -12
Contrib. Shareholders' 3,090 1,048 2,586 5,544 8,795 1,295 1,424 1,566 5.4 10
account&otherIncome
Total income 384,355 292,614 713,200 670,595 708,277 1,009,411 1,032,811 1,077,854 36.3 3.3
Surplus from 13,507 9,714 10,991 10,434 13,621 7,829 8,971 10,951 -5.3 18.3
Revenue account
PAT 12,768 12,953 13,609 13,269 13,683 15,741 16,427 18,797 5 9.3
Shareholder's funds 56,556 67,999 86,377 156,133 129,932 146,663 123,970 139,396 21.2 -2.5
Key Parameters
APE 62,600 74,070 83,720 97,600 133,360 132,910 154,280 176,801 15.7 15.3

VNB 15,400 19,184 21,851 26,750 36,740 35,010 40,748 47,636 16.2 16.6

VNB Margin (%) 24.6 25.9 26.1 27.4 27.5 26.3 26.4 26.9 - -

EV 182,970 206,554 266,205 329,555 395,235 474,645 554,141 644,488 23.1 16.5
Product Mix on APE basis (%)
UL 23 20 22 16 31 31.5 30.2 29 - -

Par 16 29 25 23 20 19.1 18.3 17.6 - -

Non par savings 34 26 28 38 26 26.4 27.7 29 - -

Group Savings 6 7 6 3 3 2.7 2.5 2.3 - -

Protection 17.2 12.8 14 13.3 13 13.3 13.7 14.2 - -

- o/w Ind Protection 6 6 5 3.4 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 - -

- o/w Group Protection 11 7 8.5 9.9 8.7 8.9 9 9.3 - -
Annuity 3.8 5.2 5 6 6 7 7.6 8 - -
Valuations (x)
Price to VNB 79 63.4 55.7 45.5 33.1 29.0 24.8 21.5 - -

Price to EV 6.6 5.9 4.6 3.7 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.6 - -

Price to Earnings 95.2 93.9 89.4 91.6 88.9 72.0 62.9 57.9 - -

Price to Book Value 21.5 17.9 14.1 7.8 9.4 9.5 8.5 7.6 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/HDFC Life Insurance Company - 4QFY24 Result Update -
18 Apr 24.pdf

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Share Data Hikal

Price (Rs) 285
Agrochemical segment dampens growth, while pharma
BSE Sensex 73,961 continues to recover
Reuters code HIKA.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code HKCI IN • The company is expected to be on its growth journey, which will kick
Market cap. (US$ mn) 421 off from FY26, as they surpass all business-related challenges.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.1 • Crop protection segment
Issued shares (mn) 123 o Crop protection will be the future growth driver based on new
Target price (Rs) 330 launches, in herbicides, pesticides, and even focussing on organic
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M segment as well in the crop segment that is believed to become a
Absolute (5) 4 2 big opportunity in the future due to the technology involved.

Relative (8) 1 (20) o Crop protection demands higher margins and as they also aim
at onboarding more CDMO projects, they expect a 200-300 bps
Valuation Ratios
improvement in margins from FY26.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Pharmaceutical segment
Adj. EPS (Rs) 5.5 8.4 12.4
o Commercialisation of their multi-purpose plant in Panoli for
Growth (%) (13.0) 51.6 47.6 Animal Health products with a leading MNC Innovator (wherein
PER 51.3 33.9 22.9 6-8 products are currently under validation and registrations), will
add greater leverage to the business.
Price/Book 2.9 2.7 2.4
o Pharma EBIT margins came in higher at 15.9% in 4Q and is expected
Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2
to improve hereon as they enter into newer geographies like
EV/Sales 2.1 1.8 1.5 Japan, LatAm, and MENA.
EV/EBITDA 14.5 11.7 9.3 o Pharma CDMO business is also gaining traction from generic as

Major Shareholders (%) well as innovator customers.

Promoters 69
o Around 8-9 products remain in development, and targets to
FPIs 7 launch 2-3 products annually. While new products are in the
MFs 3 process of getting added, the existing legacy products witness an
BFSI’s 1 improvement in the market share.
Public & Others 21 • FY25 will be muted but will soon witness recovery from 2HFY25 as

Relative Performance crop protection segment recovers from its worst phase globally, as

600
demand improves, and volumes pick-up.

500 • Capacity utilisation: The company currently witnesses a 60%

400 capacity utilisation in the crop protection segment, as volumes
300 are muted due to the global scenario, but recovery is expected by
200 2HFY25. The pharma segment operates at an 80-85% utilisation
100 rate. With products in the pipeline for both segments, the company
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

expects to operate at higher utilisation levels by 2HFY25/FY26.

Hikal
Sensex (rebased)

Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

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• Animal Health segment: This is a well-diversified business, with no product contributing more than 10%
to its revenues, making the business more stable and sustainable with reduced dependency on key
products.
• China dependency: The company has a dependency of 28-30% on China (of which 70-75% is required
by the pharma segment). This has evolved from around 35% dependency in FY22.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 15,667 14,621 17,071 19,260 20,047 18,077 20,550 23,931 2.9 15.1
EBITDA 2,981 2,732 3,229 3,406 2,571 2,587 3,172 3,971 (2.8) 23.9
PAT 1,031 844 1,331 1,605 784 682 1,034 1,526 (7.9) 49.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 45.5 46.9 46.8 48.3 44.8 50.5 45.2 46.1 – –

EBITDA margin 19.0 18.7 18.9 17.7 12.8 14.3 15.4 16.6 – –

PAT margin 6.6 5.8 7.8 8.3 3.9 3.8 5.0 6.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 8.4 6.8 10.8 13.0 6.4 5.5 8.4 12.4 (7.9) 49.5
BV (Rs) 61.3 66.2 75.7 86.6 91.9 96.9 104.6 116.4 9.6 9.6
RoCE (%) 15.7 13.8 16.5 15.0 8.0 7.3 9.1 11.5 – –

RoA (%) 12.9 11.3 13.2 12.1 6.7 6.2 7.8 9.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 14.5 10.7 15.2 16.0 7.1 5.9 8.3 11.2 – –

Net profit margin 6.6 5.8 7.8 8.3 3.9 3.8 5.0 6.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Hikal - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May 24.pdf

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Share Data Hindalco Industries

Price (Rs) 689
Resilient growth amidst diversification and sustainability
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code HALC.BO
Novelis
Bloomberg code HNDL IN
• US and South Africa market looks strong; however, EU market is still
Market cap. (US$ mn) 18,567
weak considering the economic slowdown in the region.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 55.9
• Recycled content will go up to 75% (63% at the end of FY24) by the end
Issued shares (mn) 2,247 of this decade considering the newer projects come into play, which
Target price (Rs) 610 will improve the margin further.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The company is very confident that they will maintain the leverage
Absolute 7 37 70 ratio within 3x despite of huge capex pipeline through better operating
Relative 7 37 52 cash flow.

Valuation Ratios • Scrap spread benefit will come in the near-term as LME has gone up
by 15% recently.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Out of the total capex announced for FY25 (US$ 1.8-2.1 bn), the company
EPS (Rs) 45.7 48.9 62.1
will spend 60-65% on Bay minette and rest on other ongoing projects.
Change (%) 0.6 7.0 26.9
• The company has provided a long-term EBITDA/tonne guidance of
PER (x) 15.1 14.1 11.1 US$ 600 (earlier it was US$ 525), driven by healthy volume growth,
PBV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 better market demand, contract-based pricing, increase in recycled
content and operating efficiency.
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6
• Aditya Birla Group firm is set to list its US subsidiary Novelis on the
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), offering 45 mn shares at US$ 18-21
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 7.5 6.3 apiece. Novelis’ IPO could generate up to US$ 945 mn for Hindalco as
Major Shareholders (%) proceeds from the offer for sale.

Promoters 35 • The IPO proceeds could reach up to US$ 1.08 bn at the upper end of
FPIs 31 the price band, based on the net debt of US$ 4.35 bn, according to the
MFs 13 US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, the enterprise
BFSI’s 13 valuation of the company is estimated between US$ 15.2 bn and US$
Public & Others 8 17 bn.

Relative Performance India operation

800 • Market recovery and better realisation helps the company to report
700 better EBITDA/tonne in the downstream and upstream business.
600
500 • LME prices has stabilised at US$ 2,500/tonne after reaching US$ 2,700+,
400 post the US and UK sanctioned on Russian aluminium supply.
300
• The company is planning to incur Rs 60 bn capex in FY25 for India
200
business and they will do it through internal accruals only.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The company is currently expanding their downstream business;

Hindalco Industries however, very soon they will start enhancing their smelter capacity at
Sensex (rebased) Aditya to meet the upcoming demand.

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

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• The company has provided sustainable guidance for copper business EBITDA run rate of Rs 6 bn/quarter,
last quarter number was exceptional.
• Management always maintains their project IRR above mid-teens for the ongoing projects, and in some
cases, it is higher than this.
• Chakla block is expected to be commissioned by 2QFY26 (earlier guidance was 4QFY25), delayed due
to forest clearance. Monakshi coal mine is expected to come into play in CY26. Both will provide more
cushion on the cost side.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR(%)
(FY19-FY24) (FY24E-FY26E)

Financials

Sales 1,305,420 1,181,440 1,319,850 1,950,590 2,232,020 2,159,620 2,125,176 2,172,715 10.6 0.3

EBITDA 155,110 143,060 175,360 283,470 226,660 238,720 261,312 304,379 9.0 12.9

PAT 54,950 37,670 51,820 142,010 100,970 101,550 108,643 137,855 13.1 16.5

Margin (%)

Gross Margin 39.7 42.2 42.0 39.7 36.9 38.0 39.0 40.0 – –

EBITDA Margin 11.9 12.1 13.3 14.5 10.2 11.1 12.3 14.0 – –

PAT Margin 4.2 3.2 3.9 7.3 4.5 4.7 5.1 6.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 – –

EPS (Rs) 24.8 17.0 23.3 64.0 45.5 45.7 48.9 62.1 13.1 16.5

BV (Rs) 259.0 262.7 299.7 352.2 427.1 478.1 519.7 572.5 13.0 9.4

ROCE (%) 9.8 7.9 8.4 14.8 10.0 10.4 9.6 11.4 – –

RoA (%) 7.9 6.5 6.8 11.0 7.5 7.8 7.4 8.6 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) 9.8 6.5 8.3 19.6 11.7 10.1 9.8 11.4 – –

Net Profit Margin 4.2 3.2 3.9 7.3 4.5 4.7 5.1 6.7 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 – –

Leverage Factor (x) 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Hindalco Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update - 25 May
24.pdf

171
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Hindustan Foods

Price (Rs) 488
Next two years expansion plan remains on track
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code HFDS.BO
Guidance for FY25 remains intact
Bloomberg code HNDFDS IN
• Revenue: Hindustan Foods (HFL) has set a revenue target of Rs 40 bn,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 670
assuming commodity prices remain stable. The expected growth
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.7 drivers are as follows:
Issued shares (mn) 115 o Ramp-up of sports shoe business in Kundli and South India: Sports
Target price (Rs) 678 shoe business is expected to contribute to revenue starting from
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M 1QFY25.
Absolute (4) (5) (14) o OTC unit in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh: HFL started booking revenue
Relative (4) (5) (32) from 4Q. However, the unit’s capacity has not been fully utilised
due to delay in regulatory and licencing issues. The company has
Valuation Ratios
invested Rs 1,200 mn in this unit so far.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
o Ice cream factory for a D2C player in Kundli, Haryana: With a capital
EPS (Rs) 8.1 11.1 15.3
expenditure of Rs 1,500 mn, the unit is expected to commence
+/- (%) 28.6 36.3 38.0 operations from 3QFY25.
PER (x) 60.1 44.1 32.0 o Peak utilisation of ATC Beverage, Mysuru and Ice Cream facility in
Lucknow.
PBV (x) 9.8 5.9 5.0
o Beverage portfolio expansion (Capex: Rs 200 mn) in Guwahati,
EV/Sales (x) 2.3 1.7 1.3
Assam for a large FMCG player.
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.1 22.0 17.5
• RoE: The RoEs are expected to improve from current level of 18% to 20-
Major Shareholders (%) 22% with ramp-up of OTC facility, sport shoe plants and utilisation of
Promoters 64 capital raised from warrants towards further capacity additions.
FPIs 7 • Debt:Equity: The company expects to maintain the Debt:Equity ratio
BFSI’s 7 at 1:1x.
Public & Others 22
• Asset turnover: Across all assets, HFL expects to maintain an asset
Relative Performance turnover ratio of 3-4x.
800
Capacity expansions to continue in FY25, key driver of medium-term
700
growth
600
• The company’s gross block (incl. CWIP) at the end of FY24 stood at ~Rs
500
11.3 bn (versus FY23: Rs 8.4 bn).
400
300 • Current Gross block and CWIP combined includes OTC unit in Baddi
(to the tune of Rs 1.3 bn) and sports shoe factory acquisitions from
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

SSIPL (to the tune of Rs 300 mn).

Hindustan Foods
Sensex (rebased)

Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain

Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

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• The company’s capex plans for FY25 include the following investments:
o New ice cream factory (in Kundli, Haryana) (dedicated manufacturing): ~Rs 1.5 bn – increase in earlier
estimate of Rs 1 bn as client plans to increase production capacity and also make better ice creams
with capex towards improved machineries.
o Ice cream factory in Lucknow – Rs 200 mn (this is in addition to earlier investments of ~Rs 2-2.25 bn).
o Soaps and detergent plant (in Hyderabad): ~Rs 500 mn for expansion (total investment of Rs 1.5 bn
after Rs 500 mn expected expansion).
o Colour cosmetics plant (in Silvassa): ~Rs 400 mn.
o KNS Shoetech: ~Rs 1 bn (acquired 3 factories in April 2024).
Shoe business margin/RoE accretive | OTC to yield higher margins once capacity utilisation improves
• Shoe business works on a shared manufacturing model. It currently has an employee strength of 5,000
workers. The business is expected to yield better margins than the other existing segments of HFL. If the
operating leverage is managed well, RoE for shoe business is expected to be far better than HFL’s other
existing business segments.
• The working capital cycle of shoe business is different from other FMCG companies. Therefore, the
cash conversion cycle is expected to increase marginally (over FY24) going ahead on the back of shoe
business.
• The OTC business in Baddi operates on an anchor tenant model, characterised by higher margins. RoE
is directly influenced by capacity utilisation. Thus, as capacity utilisation increases, RoE is expected to
improve accordingly. OTC business is expected to meaningfully contribute to the revenue from FY25.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 4,919 7,719 14,072 20,401 25,981 27,547 38,566 48,593 41 33
EBITDA 324 557 902 1,149 1,732 2,218 2,930 3,632 47 28
PAT 119 220 373 446 711 930 1,327 1,831 51 40
Margin (%)
Gross margin 24.8 19.8 15.4 12.8 14.1 17.5 16.2 16.0 – –
EBITDA margin 6.6 7.2 6.4 5.6 6.7 8.1 7.6 7.5 – –
PAT margin 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.8 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 – –
EPS (Rs) 1.8 2.1 3.5 4.0 6.3 8.1 11.1 15.3 36 37
BVPS (Rs) 9.7 17.7 24.0 27.0 33.3 49.8 83.3 98.5 39 41
RoCE (%) 22.0 17.9 17.4 16.0 17.3 14.7 14.1 15.3 – –
RoA (%) 13.3 11.3 11.5 10.9 12.1 10.7 10.4 11.0 – –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 23.1 17.4 16.9 16.0 20.9 19.7 16.9 16.8 – –
Net Profit margin 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.8 – –
Asset turnover (x) 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 – –
Leverage factor (x) 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Hindustan Foods - 4QFY24 Result Update - 23 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

Price (Rs) 537
Refinery upgrades to drive earnings performance, increase
BSE Sensex 73,961 backward integration
Reuters code HPCL.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code HPCL IN • Vizag refinery to be fully commissioned by 2HFY25 – The Residue
Market cap. (US$ mn) 9,136 Upgradation Facility (RUF) at the Vizag refinery is scheduled for
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 54.3 commissioning in the first half of the fiscal year 2025 post which
Issued shares (mn) 1,419 there will be a minor shutdown. Currently, the refinery’s operational
capacity is 13.7 mmtpa. Following the RUF enhancement, refining
Target price (Rs) 586
margins will improve by US$ 1-2/bbl. Russian crude intake will be
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
increased from 25% to 35% post RUF upgrade.
Absolute 8 5 106
• HMEL’s strong refinery performance offsets weak petchem
Relative 8 5 88
margins – In FY24, HMEL’s refinery reported GRM of US$ 17-18/bbl. 4Q
Valuation Ratios performance was hit by low petchem spreads between Polyethylene
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E (PE)/Polypropylene (PP) and Naphtha. HMEL’s Russian crude intake

EPS (Rs) 103.6 45.9 67.8

stands at 35%.
• Standalone debt stands reduces to Rs 520 bn in 1QFY25TD – Given
Growth (%) (55.6) 47.6
healthy refining and marketing segment profitability, Hindustan
PER (x) 5.2 11.7 7.9
Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) has been able to reduce debt levels by
PB (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5 ~13% since end FY24. Debt in HRRL stands at Rs 280 bn, of which HPCL’s

Div./Yield (%) 5.9 2.6 3.8

share comes to 74%.
• Capex run-rate to stay at Rs 150 bn p.a. in the next two-three
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3
years, focus shifts to gas/renewable vertical – With Vizag and
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 9.2 6.9
Barmer refinery expected to commission end FY26, HPCL’s focus will
Major Shareholders (%) now gradually shift to Gas and renewables vertical. On gas front,
Promoters 55 development of 14 standalone CGD GAs will be the key focus area (35
FPIs 14 GAs at group level). CGDs will have a capex commitment of Rs 80-
MFs 15 90 bn, while Natural gas segment (includes LNG terminal) will have
BFSI’s 7 commitment of Rs 120-130 bn in the next five years.
Public & Others 9 • Rajasthan refinery 77% complete physically, MRPL merger unlikely
Relative Performance in the next two years - HRRL’s crude refinery is expected to be
commissioned in the next one year, while petrochemical plant will
650
550 take ~two years to commission. Rs 130 bn has been infused by HPCL
450 till date and another Rs 5-6 bn is expected to be further infused. On
350 MRPL-HPCL merger, management mentioned that due to significant
250 tax credits available with MRPL, merger is unlikely for the next two
150 years. Tax credit will not be available post HPCL-MRPL merger.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Hindustan Petroleum…
Sensex (rebased)

Siddharth Chauhan Archit Joshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
siddharth.chauhan@bksec.com archit.joshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Russian crude discount has reduced as China increases Russian crude imports – Russian crude
discounts which were in double digits last year has narrowed to mid-single digits due to increased
marketability of Russian crude. China has increased Russian crude imports by ~12.5% YoY in March
2024. Lower Russian crude discount will impact Indian refineries margin over Singapore GRMs. Russian
payments are being made in AED and efforts are underway to made payment in Rupees.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 2,751,974 2,687,664 2,329,968 3,496,829 4,404,030 4,335,249 4,283,201 4,331,334 9.5 (0.0)

EBITDA 114,420 51,235 159,254 101,759 (75,222) 248,390 148,478 196,611 16.8 (11.0)

PAT 60,287 26,373 106,639 63,826 (89,740) 146,938 65,195 96,245 19.5 (19.1)

Margin (%)

Gross margin 9.9 8.3 14.0 7.9 3.0 10.6 8.9 9.9 – –

EBITDA margin 4.2 1.9 6.8 2.9 (1.7) 5.7 3.5 4.5 – –

PAT margin 2.2 1.0 4.6 1.8 (2.0) 3.4 1.5 2.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 39.5 17.3 69.9 41.8 (63.2) 103.6 45.9 67.8 21.2 (19.1)

BV (Rs) 184.7 189.8 237.2 253.5 195.3 289.2 321.1 368.3 9.4 12.9

RoCE (%) 18.2 5.5 19.3 10.4 NA 20.4 9.6 12.5 – –

RoA (%) 10.6 3.4 12.4 6.5 NA 13.2 6.3 8.4 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 23.1 9.2 32.7 17.1 NA 42.7 15.1 19.7 – –

Net profit margin 2.2 1.0 4.6 1.8 (2.0) 3.4 1.5 2.2 – –

Asset turnover (x) 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.8 4.1 3.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Hindustan Petroleum Corporation - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 10 May 24.pdf

175
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Share Data Home First Finance Company

Price (Rs) 817
Growth momentum continues, RoE expansion remains on track
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code HOME.BO
Growth
Bloomberg code HOMEFIRS IN
• FY25 AUM growth expected to be 30% with Non-Home Loans mix to
Market cap. (US$ mn) 868
increase to 20% levels.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.5
• Increase in average ticket size is secular in nature driven by higher
Issued shares (mn) 89 incomes and aspirations of people to build or purchase larger
Target price (Rs) 1,150 houses.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Increase in the Self-employed customer mix is on account of going
Absolute (11) (6) 13 deeper into the geographies. However, there is not much of a
Relative (11) (6) (5) difference in delinquency levels for both of the customer segment
for the company.
Valuation Ratios
• Increased BT out is driven by sharp increase in interest rates seen in
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
the past two years. However, total erosion rate stands at 17-20% range.
EPS (Rs) 34.5 43.2 54.5
If the BT out is on account of lower interest rates of about 1-1.5%, the
BVPS (Rs) 239.7 278.9 328.9 company matches the same to retain the customers.
P/E (x) 23.6 18.9 15.0 • Top six-seven states will account for 10-12% of the AUM each in three-
four years’ time.
P/BV (x) 3.4 2.9 2.5
Margins
Major Shareholders (%)
• Increase in LAP portfolio and expansion into smaller markets will help
Promoters 24
support yields. LAP is currently 13% of the portfolio and the company
FPIs 25
intends to take it to 20% of the portfolio by FY27.
MFs 10
BFSI’s 2 • Co-lending yield is around 10%.
Public & Others 40 • Another 10-20 bps increase in cost of borrowing can be expected

Relative Performance from current levels. NHB borrowing of Rs 2.5 bn drawdown in April

1,100
2024. Cost of borrowing can look at 8.5% on a blended basis over the
1,000 next two quarters.
900 Asset quality
800 • ECL model for the company suggests overall ECL provision as part
700 of the principal outstanding at 0.5%, as buffer keeps 40-50% higher
600 provision as suggested by the ECL model. ECL for the company will be
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

reduced to 0.8% from current 0.9% as there is no stress in the macro

environment.
Home First Finance Co India
Sensex (rebased) • Credit cost guidance of 30-40 bps.
Others
• Attrition at loan officer levels continues to be in the range of 40%

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Net Interest Income 1,445 2,258 2,718 3,800 4,913 6,567 8,606 10,957 35.8 29.2

Operating Expense 719 1,020 1,056 1,287 1,746 2,313 3,245 4,190 24.8 34.6

Operating Profit 726 1,238 1,662 2,513 3,167 4,254 5,361 6,768 44.5 26.1

PAT 457 796 1,001 1,861 2,283 3,057 3,826 4,824 49.5 25.6

Shareholder's Fund 5,227 9,334 13,805 15,737 18,173 21,215 24,687 29,113 36.6 17.1

AUM 24,440 36,180 41,410 53,803 71,980 96,978 126,729 160,358 31.0 28.6

Borrowings 19,256 24,938 30,537 34,668 48,135 73,021 96,388 123,376 25.7 30.0

Per Share Data (Rs)

EPS (Rs) 8 11 12 21 26 35 43 55 35.3 25.6

BV (Rs) 83 119 158 180 206 240 279 329 25.8 17.1

Margins (%)

NIMs 5.7 5.1 4.8 6.2 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.6 – –

Return Profile (%)

ROA 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 – –

ROE 10.8 10.9 8.6 12.6 13.5 15.5 16.7 17.9 – –

Asset Quality (%)

GNPA 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 – –

NNPA 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 – –

PCR 24.9 25.8 36.0 24.9 34.0 29.7 30.0 30.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Home First Finance Company - 4QFY24 Result Update -
09 May 24.pdf

177
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data ICICI Bank

Price (Rs) 1,121
Banking evolution: Credit dynamics, asset quality and
BSE Sensex 73,961 profitability path in FY25
Reuters code ICBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code ICICIBC IN We met Mr Abhinek Bhargava, Investor Relation, ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) at
Market cap. (US$ mn) 94,471 our Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 207.0 Liquidity position
Issued shares (mn) 7,031 • Liquidity has been tight currently; it had improved in March-April 2024.
Target price (Rs) 1,102 The liquidity might ease out with election and budget getting over.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Credit and Deposit volume growth
Absolute (3) 7 18 • The banking system’s credit growth may decrease by approximately
Relative (3) 6 (0) 200 bps in FY25, reaching the low-to-mid teens. The gap between

Valuation Ratios deposit and credit growth has reduced over time to 250-330 bps from
around 700 bps.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• ICICIBC’s deposit and credit volume have been good. In the first two
Adj. EPS (Rs) 58.2 58.7 64.6
months, credit volume has been good. Loan growth to moderate in
BVPS (Rs) 337.4 396.1 460.8 FY25.
Adj. Book 331.7 389.1 452.8 • CASA could do better than the last year. Deposit growth has been
NAV/share (Rs)
good enough to fund credit growth.
PER (x) 19.3 19.1 17.4 • Change in credit mix would not be that significant as it was in the past.
Price/Book (x) 3.3 2.8 2.4 Asset quality performance
Price/Adj. book (x) 3.4 2.9 2.5 • KCC additions have been there; there would some rise in KCC related
slippages in 1QFY25. But barring this, slippages and recovery would be
Div. Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.2
fine.
Major Shareholders (%)
Progression in profitability in FY25
Promoters 0
• Due to base effect, there would be some impact on profitability in
FPIs 56
1HFY25.
MFs 24
BFSI’s 13 • Deposit cost would be higher. SBIN has raised term deposit rates in
Public & Others 8 the shorter maturity buckets. The bank is not active in these deposit
maturity buckets, where SBIN has raised TD rates (in shorter maturity
Relative Performance
buckets).
1,400
1,200 • Credit yield has been stable.
1,000
800 Impact on the RBI’s guidelines on investment classification and
600 valuation
400
200 • Some degree of accretion in CET-1/reserves would be there with the
0
new investment guidelines. Volatility in P/L would come down.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

ICICI Bank
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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Operating expenses
• The bank added 2,000 manpower in FY24.
• Technology expenses has been growing at 40%; this pace of growth would come down.
• Certain IT digital projects which were started in the past are coming to be completed in next six months.
• The bank is also trying to optimise sourcing cost.
• The bank is also working on integrating certain verticals, as some of them are currently operating in
isolation.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 270,148 332,671 389,894 474,661 621,286 743,057 841,647 953,236 22.4 13.3
Operating Expense 180,891 216,144 215,608 267,333 328,732 391,327 454,019 519,039 16.7 15.2
Operating Profit 234,379 281,013 363,971 392,503 490,868 581,308 652,737 736,421 19.9 12.6
PAT 33,633 79,308 161,927 233,395 318,965 408,883 411,260 459,209 64.8 6.0
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 1,083,680 1,165,044 1,475,092 1,705,120 2,007,154 2,383,993 2,781,200 3,240,410 17.1 16.6
Advances 5,866,466 6,452,900 7,337,291 8,590,204 10,196,383 11,844,064 13,735,452 16,016,651 15.1 16.3
Deposits 6,529,197 7,709,690 9,325,222 10,645,716 11,808,407 14,128,250 16,120,236 18,873,767 16.7 15.6
Total Assets 9,644,591 10,983,651 12,304,327 14,112,977 15,842,067 18,715,146 21,283,400 24,697,520 14.2 14.9
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 5 12 23 34 46 58 59 65 62.0 6.0
BV 163 175 209 240 282 337 396 461 15.6 16.9
ABV 145 166 198 233 276 332 389 453 18.0 16.8

Return Ratios (%)

ROA 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.0
ROE 3.2 7.1 12.3 14.7 17.2 18.7 16.0 15.3
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 7.4 6.0 5.3 3.8 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.6
NNPA 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
PCR 70.6 75.7 77.7 79.2 82.8 80.8 80.7 80.6
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 15.1 14.7 18.1 18.3 17.6 15.6 15.7 15.7
Total cap. adequacy 16.9 16.1 19.1 19.2 18.3 16.3 16.4 16.3

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/ICICI Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 29 Apr 24.pdf

179
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company

Price (Rs) 1,581
Profitable growth remains key decision-making metric
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ICIL.BO
• The EOM guidelines and enhanced customer support has aided ICICI
Bloomberg code ICICIGI IN
Lombard General Insurance Company’s (ICICIGI) recovery of market
Market cap. (US$ mn) 9,341 share in the motor segment. The competitive intensity has toned
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.0 down a bit but still exists, as per the management.
Issued shares (mn) 493 • Claims trend of the motor segment is improving due to better quality
Target price (Rs) 1,700 of roads, safer cars and enhanced involvement of courts. This is
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M offset by the increase in frequency of accidents.

Absolute (8) (8) 34 • Decisions like entering the Crop business after acquisition of Bharti
Relative (8) (8) 15 AXA, PolicyBazaar tie-up, etc. have been taken after continuous
analysis of risk appetite as well as profitable growth opportunities.
Valuation Ratios
• Commercial business involves high risk exposure as well as higher
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
payouts due to which clients are attracted towards insurance
EPS (Rs) 39.1 48.5 56.5 providers having robust claims paying ability and a strong balance
PER (X) 40.5 32.6 28.0 sheet.

BVPS (Rs) 243.5 280.6 323.7 • KYC process gives the opportunity to integrate customer data and
enhance client engagement, especially in retail heavy segments like
P/B (X) 6.5 5.6 4.9
health and motor.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Multi-product, multi-channel approach will help in sailing through
Promoters 51 various cycles, while consistent reserving policy will aid profitability,
FPIs 23 as per the management.
MFs 13
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 10

Relative Performance
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Kartikeya Mohata

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com kartikeya.mohata@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

GDPI 1,67,463 1,64,471 1,71,630 1,79,770 2,10,251 2,47,761 2,85,596 3,24,102 10.8 14.4
NEP 97,743 1,12,332 1,18,479 1,30,321 1,48,229 1,68,665 1,90,635 2,17,746 10.7 13.6
Underwriting result (2,664) (3,348) 3,378 (5,319) (8,810) (9,797) (9,604) (8,818)
PAT 10,523 9,501 15,933 12,710 16,011 19,186 23,811 27,753 19.2 20.3
Key Ratios (%)
Retention Ratio 64.7 69.5 72.2 72.7 71.4 71.0 71.3 71.8 - -
Claims Ratio 75.6 73.8 67.8 75.1 72.4 70.8 70.3 70.1 - -
Commission Ratio 2.5 4.1 5.4 4.7 3.0 17.0 16.6 17.8 - -
Expense Ratio 21.5 26.0 28.1 29.1 29.1 15.5 14.9 13.0 - -
Combined Ratio 99.6 103.8 101.2 108.8 104.5 103.3 101.8 100.9 - -
RoE 21.3 16.6 23.5 14.8 17.7 17.2 18.5 18.7
Investment Yield - 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.1 7.8 7.1 7.7 7.1
Policyholders
Valuation Ratios (x)
EPS 23.1 20.9 35.0 25.9 32.6 39.1 48.5 56.5 – –
P/E 43.7 51.8 38.2 64.9 51.5 40.5 32.6 28.0 – –
BVPS 116.9 134.8 163.4 185.5 211.6 243.5 280.6 323.7 – –
P/B 8.6 8.0 8.2 9.1 7.9 6.5 5.6 4.9 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company - 4QFY24
Result Update - 17 Apr 24.pdf

181
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company

Price (Rs) 545
On track execution
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ICIR.BO
• Currently, 45% of the total APE is from proprietary channels. The rest
Bloomberg code IPRU IN
includes multi-insurers distributors, online partners, group business,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 9,423 etc. with none of the partners having a share of more than 3% to 4%.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.1 • The agency channel is expected to grow faster. Proprietary channel
Issued shares (mn) 1,441 has shown traction in terms of the newer products launched with the
Target price (Rs) 632 new commission structures.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • It has been an industry trend that protection prices are revised
Absolute (5) 2 17 every three-four years. The revision is done gradually over the period
Relative (5) 2 (1) to account for the change in mortality rate across geographic
areas where the company is expanding and pricing the product
Valuation Ratios
standardised for every customer.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The return of premium policies constitute about 18% to 20% of the term
Price to EV 1.9 1.6 1.4 insurance APE; the rest are pure-term policies.
Price to VNB 35.2 30.8 26.6 • In FY24, part of the fall from savings product was picked up ULIP and
Price to Earnings 92.2 88.5 81.8 Protection. While ULIP are market linked, if the markets cool down,
industry is well prepared with products like protection – retail & credit
Price to Book Value 7.1 6.9 6.6
life, and annuities.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The company has launched a combo product with ICICI Lombard,
Promoters 73 wherein an agent will offer both the products (Life and Health) and the
FPIs 13 product will be catered by respective companies.
MFs 6
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 5

Relative Performance
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Net premium income 305,783 328,790 349,734 363,213 385,595 417,597 465,788 520,343 6.2 11.6

Income from Inv. 102,144 (125,169) 474,376 249,695 99,646 465,503 488,778 513,217 n.m. 5.0

Contrib. Shareholders' 5,272 14,970 15,748 21,611 18,024 17,926 17,926 17,926 4.6 0.0
account & other Income

Total income 414,003 219,395 840,791 635,645 504,781 903,073 974,498 1,053,452 42.4 8.0

Surplus from Revenue 12,333 21,870 21,052 21,904 23,021 10,892 18,270 20,405 (16.0) 36.9
account

PAT 11,407 10,670 9,560 7,592 8,135 8,507 8,858 9,582 (5.5) 6.1

Shareholder's funds 70,423 72,124 91,189 91,631 100,893 110,043 113,006 119,194 11.1 4.1

Key Parameters

APE 77,995 73,810 64,620 77,330 86,400 90,460 104,979 120,773 5.2 15.5

VNB 13,280 16,050 16,210 21,630 27,650 22,270 25,482 29,444 8.5 15.0

VNB Margin (%) 17.0 21.7 25.1 28.0 32.0 24.6 24.3 24.4 – –

EV 215,242 229,322 290,092 316,250 356,340 423,350 482,179 549,822 16.6 14.0

Product Mix on APE basis (%)

Linked 79.6 64.7 47.8 48.4 35.9 43.2 43.3 43.3 – –

Non-Linked 9.0 15.5 27.5 27.4 37.3 25.8 25.9 26.1 – –

- o/w Par 8.6 14.2 17.2 15.4 11.0 8.3 7.9 7.3 – –

- o/w Non-par 0.4 1.2 10.3 12.1 26.3 17.4 18.0 18.8 – –

Annuity 0.9 1.4 3.5 3.8 5.9 10.5 10.9 11.1 – –

Group 1.3 3.3 4.9 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 – –

Protection 9.3 15.1 16.2 17.0 17.4 16.9 16.7 16.5 – –

Valuations (x)

Price to VNB 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 – –

Price to EV 62.4 51.7 51.1 38.3 30.0 35.2 30.8 26.6 – –

Price to Earnings 72.7 77.7 86.7 109.2 101.9 92.2 88.5 81.8 – –

Price to Book Value 11.8 11.5 9.1 9.0 8.2 7.1 6.9 6.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 23 Apr 24.pdf

183
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data IDFC First Bank

Price (Rs) 76
Bank targets sustainable profits with high margins and
BSE Sensex 73,961 aggressive growth
Reuters code IDFB.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code IDFCFB IN We met Mr V. Vaidyanathan CEO & MD, IDFC FIRST Bank at our Trinity
Market cap. (US$ mn) 6,481 Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 45.4 On business model
Issued shares (mn) 7,077 • The bank wants to build strong profitability model which is sustainable.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The bank’s model as per the management is close to Bajaj’s model
Absolute (7) (6) 7 now, as the bank is raising money at 6.4% and lending at 15% with a

Relative (7) (6) (12)

credit cost of ~1.8%.
• The bank’s management commented that it has unique model with
Valuation Ratios
very strong NIM in the banking space.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY24 FY24
• The bank is paying savings cost higher than other banks rather than
Adj. EPS (Rs) 0.2 3.7 4.2 raising the TD cost, and therefore while the other banks have been
BVPS (Rs) 33.8 38.8 45.4 witnessing movement from savings to FD, it stands strong there.

Adj. Book 31.3 37.3 44.1

• The bank wants to build a book with less dependence on DSA.
NAV/share (Rs) Guidance
PER (x) 483.8 30.7 27.1 • The bank aims to raise Rs 600 bn deposit at rates similar to the current

Price/Book (x) 3.4 2.9 2.5

year in FY25.
• The bank aims for Rs 440-450 bn of loan book growth in FY25.
Price/Adj. book (x) 3.6 3.0 2.6
• The bank aims to reach the mark of Rs 4.5 trn in advances within the
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
next five years.
Major Shareholders (%) • The bank’s guidance for credit cost stands at 1.65%.
Promoters 37 • The bank aims to reach a RoA of 2.9% by FY29.
FPIs 24
• The cost-to-income to reach 66% in FY25.
MFs 3
On loan book composition
BFSI’s 4
Public & Others 28 • Corporate growth will continue from here, as the historical problems
have been resolved.
Relative Performance
• Particularly, NBFCs and other corporate segments would comprise
120
100
the bulk of the corporate book.
80 • The credit card product of the bank has become highly successful.
60
• The infrastructure book for the bank is quite negligible now.
40
20 On profitability
0
• In an ideal steady-state scenario, the bank should have made a profit
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

of Rs 50 bn, but it came in at Rs 30 bn. The deficit of Rs 20 billion was due

to liability costs and credit card costs.
IDFC First Bank
Sensex (rebased) • The profitability increase will occur in the 2HFY25, while the 1HFY25 will
remain stable.
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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On operating cost
• The liability cost-to-income ratio will come down as the bank scales which will dip below 100.
• The credit card will be closer to break-even by 3Q/4QFY25.
• The collection spend has minimised incrementally as technology is playing a big role there.
• The bank’s tech helps them in identifying the cheque bounces before they happen which enables them
to take proactive steps.
On credit cost
• In 1QFY21, the credit cost reached a peak of 2.5% where there was no moratorium and Covid-19 impacted
the book. The bank’s management believes that this will be the bar in terms of the highest credit cost.
• The credit cost has not been a problem for the bank, as per the management.
• The bank is not likely to provide for contingency buffers as the NPA ratio is already strong.
• The bank tracks the collection efficiency closely and if it reaches 99% then there’s something to be looked at.
Miscellaneous
• The bank’s brand has higher visibility on the higher end population (upper middle class and wealthy people).
• The management comments that the bank’s tech is best among all the banks.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 31,991 56,353 73,803 97,062 126,353 164,508
Operating Expense 58,867 54,207 70,933 96,444 121,704 162,158
Operating Profit (17,491) 19,367 25,407 32,838 49,320 62,370
PAT (6,884) (28,642) 4,523 1,455 24,371 29,565
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 186,893 153,426 178,079 210,035 257,212 321,613
Advances 863,023 855,954 1,005,501 1,178,578 1,517,945 1,945,924
Deposits 704,790 651,080 886,884 1,056,344 1,446,373 2,005,763
Total Assets 1,482,868 1,492,004 1,631,439 1,901,816 2,399,417 2,961,151
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS (1) (6) 1 0 4 4
BV 39 32 31 34 39 45
ABV 38 30 28 31 37 44
Return Ratios (%)
ROA (0.5) (1.8) 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.4
ROE (4.3) (16.8) 2.7 0.8 10.4 13.3
Margins (%)
NIMs 2.5 4.0 5.1 5.9 6.2 6.5
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 2.4 2.6 4.2 3.7 2.5 1.9
NNPA 1.3 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.6
PCR 48.2 64.5 56.2 59.5 66.4 68.8
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 15.3 13.3 13.3 14.9 14.2 13.4
Total cap. adequacy 15.5 13.4 13.8 16.7 16.8 16.1

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/IDFC FIRST Bank - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 29 Apr 24.pdf

185
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data IFGL Refractories

Price (Rs) 600
Capex completion and upcoming acquisition will be the key
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code 0.0
• Recently, IFGL Refractories made a contract with PWC to implement
Bloomberg code IFGLRF IN
SAP-ACP to integrate project Gati. This will help them for data analysis,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 259 optimisation of process and driving sustainable growth.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.4 • The company has hired new resources to enhance product
Issued shares (mn) 36 development capabilities.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The company is trying to capture the non-steel industry to begin their
Absolute (12) 7 104 journey beyond the steel industry. The primary focus of the company
Relative (12) 6 86 is to capture the domestic market.

Valuation Ratios • Visakhapatnam plant is about to start in this financial year and
contribute Rs 900 mn as revenue.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• In FY25, they are going to Inaugurate the magnesium carbon brick
EPS (Rs) 21.5 22.0 22.7
plant which will provide revenues contribution of Rs 1,000 mn.
Change (%) 18.1 2.3 3.1
• The company is still maintaining healthy books as they are net debt
PER (x) 28.2 27.6 26.7 free and seated with a cash balance of Rs 2,021 mn.
PBV (x) 2.3 2.2 2.0 • The company has already done all their capex, which will be
completed by the end of July 2024, then they will focus on ramping up
Div./Yield (%) 1.1 1.1 1.1
the capacity.
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.6 1.3
• In FY24, 67% (65% last year) of the revenue came from the domestic
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.3 14.2 14.1 market and rest comes from export.
Major Shareholders (%) • The capacity utilisation for the company stood at 63-65% and is
Promoters 72 expected to gradually increase to 75-80%.
FPIs 0 • The company has provided EBITDA margin guidance of 15% on a
MFs 13 standalone basis and 12% on a consolidated basis.
BFSI’s 0
• In FY25, domestic operation of the company is expected to register
Public & Others 14
a growth rate of 17% considering the upcoming steel capacity in the
Relative Performance domestic market.
1,000
• On the acquisition side, the company is planning to make two
800
acquisitions: one in the US for new products and another in India for
600
products similar to its existing product line.
400
• Exports from India operations have grown by 2.3% compared to last
200
0
year, largely due to global challenges. They expect the export growth
rate for FY25 to be 2%.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The domestic growth rate remained steady; however, the export

IFGL Refractories market was weak, impacting overall topline growth and margin during
Sensex (rebased) this quarter.

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 9,403 9,173 10,219 12,595 13,865 16,395 11.8

EBITDA 1,087 916 1,554 1,426 1,530 1,544 7.3
PAT 505 401 656 775 792 817 10.1
Margin (%)

Gross Margin 49.7 50.0 53.6 51.2 47.9 49.3 –

EBITDA Margin 11.6 10.0 15.2 11.3 11.0 9.4 –
PAT Margin 5.4 2.1 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.0 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 14.0 11.1 18.2 21.5 22.0 22.7 10.1
BV (Rs) 202.0 224.5 247.1 259.2 278.9 297.5 8.0
ROCE (%) 13.6 12.3 13.5 10.3 9.6 8.7 –
RoA (%) 13.1 10.5 11.5 8.7 8.2 7.5 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) 11.2 9.9 7.7 8.5 8.2 7.9 –

Net Profit Margin 5.1 4.4 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.0 –
Asset Turnover (x) 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 –
Leverage Factor (x) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data India Shelter Finance Corporation

Price (Rs) 586.1
Affordable housing financier focused on underserved customer
BSE Sensex 73961.3 base
Reuters code IDNI.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code INDIASHL IN Growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 752.0 • AUM growth will be in the range of 30-35% going ahead with tier 2-4
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.0 being the key markets.
Issued shares (mn) 107.1 • 35% of the AUM is fixed rate in nature and the company has not reduced
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M rates in the past for this book. Foreclosure charges are levied on the
Absolute (1) (7) 0 fixed rate loan customers in case of an early repayment.
Relative (1) (7) (18) • Typical customer profile is of cloth merchants, lathe owners, traders,
sweet mart owners typically in the age group of 30-40 years and
Valuation Ratios
average monthly income of Rs 30-50k per month.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Rejection rate for loans is about 40-45%.
EPS (Rs) 14.7 17.7 23.1
• TAT from Login to Sanction is around 4 days, with an additional 2 days
BVPS (Rs) 123.1 141.7 214.7 between sanction and disbursements.
P/E (x) 39.8 33.0 25.3 • Typical process for loan involves four steps
P/BV (x) 4.8 4.1 2.7 o Loan officer meets the customer to capture all the details.

Major Shareholders (%) o Credit manager visits the customer to understand the

Promoters 48
requirements.
FPIs 6 o Technical manager visits the property to create a valuation.
MFs 10 o Customer visits the branch along with all co-applicants for
BFSI’s 3 disbursement.
Public & Others 33
Margins
Relative Performance • Spreads are around 6% and the company intends to price new loans in
800 the manner to maintain these spreads in case the system wide rates
700
600 are cut.
500
400 Asset quality
300
200 • The company takes around eight-nine months for the entire process
100
0 of SARFAESI to complete. Out of 100 cases, 85% of the cases are resolved
before possession of property and possession of property is required
Jan-24
Feb-24
Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

only in case of 15% of the cases.

India Shelter Finance Corp • 90% of the portfolio outstanding + interest is recovered in case of
Sensex (rebased)
repossession cases.
Others
• Current equity should suffice for the next four-five years, and the
company is comfortable to take the D/E ratio between 4.5-5x.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

188
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Net Interest Income 1,216 1,546 2,175 3,115 3,964 5,729 34.4
Operating Expense 772 790 846 1,326 1,803 2,345 23.6
Operating Profit 444 756 1,329 1,789 2,160 3,384 48.5
PAT 304 469 874 1,284 1,553 2,476 50.4
Shareholder's Fund 7,995 8,483 9,373 10,761 12,405 22,987 11.6
AUM 11,780 15,200 21,980 30,733 43,594 60,840 38.7
Borrowings 5,132 9,346 14,913 20,700 29,889 34,151 55.3
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Rs) 4 5 10 15 18 23 49.2
BV (Rs) 94 99 109 123 142 215 10.7
Margins (%)
NIMs 5.8 5.1 6.2 6.9 6.3 6.1 –
Return Profile (%)
ROA 2.7 3.0 4.1 4.5 4.1 4.9 –
ROE 4.4 5.7 9.8 12.8 13.4 14.0 –
Asset Quality (%) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 –
GNPA 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 –
NNPA 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.7 –
PCR 31.4 33.3 28.6 24.5 24.8 30.0 –

189
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data IndiaMART InterMESH

Price (Rs) 2,418
Turning around of business cycle
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code INMR.BO
• Net customer addition for IndiaMART InterMESH (INMART) has been
Bloomberg code INMART IN under pressure over the past few quarters. The same led to soft growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,738 in collections. The management remains hopeful of improvements in
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.1 net customer addition, while aspiring 20-25% growth in collections.

Issued shares (mn) 60 • Churn too has been a concern for the company. In the platinum
category, churn levels are at ~0.5% per month or ~6-8% per annum.
Target price (Rs) 3,318
In the gold category, churn stands at ~1% per month or ~12-14% per
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
annum. Silver category records higher churn, at ~7-8% per month
Absolute (9) (9) (13) for silver monthly and ~40% for the year for silver annual packages.
Relative (9) (9) (32) The management expects positive shift here in the coming quarters.
Further, some reduction in churn levels next year shall be a result of
Valuation Ratios
lower net additions in FY24.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The company continues to work on ways to improve ARPUs from
EPS (Rs) 60.4 67.7 80.0 platinum customers. They have been implementing category-based
+/- (%) 35.9 12.2 18.0 pricing, which has led to slower than anticipated move to higher value
packages.
PER (x) 40.0 35.7 30.2
• ARPU and revenue numbers are a function of collections over the past
PBV (x) 8.3 7.2 6.1 few quarters. ~80% of revenues flow in from the opening balance of
EV/Sales (x) 10.7 8.5 6.7 deferred revenues of that particular quarter. Broadly for 4Q, ~6% of the
collection improvement was customer growth, while balance ~10%
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.4 28.5 21.8
was on account of rise in average collection per customer. Most of this
Major Shareholders (%) growth was from the gold and platinum customers.
Promoters 49 • Gold and platinum customers cumulatively account for ~49% of the
FPIs 23 customer base, which was ~47% as on start of FY23. Of this, platinum is
MFs 9 ~12-14%, while gold contributes to the balance ~35%.
BFSI’s 2 • Busy is focused on the product side with inbuilt invoicing and better
Public & Others 17 inventory management. The management considers Busy to be in
Relative Performance direct competition with Tally. They differentiate it based on the mobile
3,500
interface, easy pull-in data feature, online cloud software amongst
3,000 other features. The company is targeting first-time business users and
2,500
not existing Tally users. They expect some migration from Tally to Busy;
2,000
1,500 however, the same may not be meaningful. Overall performance for
1,000 Busy is in line with management’s expectations. INMART is not targeting
500
0
profitability as yet but trying to chase growth and EBITDA break-even.
• INMART’s primary use case is discovery; it is like a large horizontal
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

platform. To participate in ONDC, a thorough understanding of

IndiaMart InterMesh conducting business online is essential. Many SMEs are still learning
Sensex (rebased) to navigate transactional platforms. Currently, they primarily use
platforms like INMART to generate leads.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

190
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 5,074 6,389 6,696 7,535 9,388 11,390 13,690 16,291 17.6 19.6
EBITDA 823 1,689 2,760 3,078 2,617 3,339 4,076 4,990 32.3 22.2
PAT 193 1,419 2,258 2,976 2,664 3,621 4,063 4,797 79.7 15.1
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 16.2 26.4 41.2 40.8 27.9 29.3 29.8 30.6 – –

PAT margin 3.8 22.2 33.7 39.5 28.4 31.8 29.7 29.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (4.3) (3.3) (1.4) (1.3) (1.1) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) – –

EPS (Rs) 3.2 23.7 37.6 49.6 44.4 60.4 67.7 80.0 – –

BV (Rs) 26.7 45.9 268.6 312.5 343.2 289.5 335.5 393.8 – –

RoCE (%) 38.2 41.9 26.6 19.2 14.6 19.3 21.4 21.6 – –

RoA (%) 17.5 22.3 19.1 14.9 11.1 13.9 14.6 14.4 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (23.9) 65.2 23.9 17.1 13.5 19.1 21.7 21.9 – –

Net profit margin 3.8 22.2 33.7 39.5 28.4 31.8 29.7 29.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) (8.4) 4.5 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/IndiaMART InterMESH - 4QFY24 Result Update - 30 Apr
24.pdf

191
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Indo Count Industries

Price (Rs) 336
Focus on increasing the share of value-added products
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ICNT.BO
• Rebound in demand in few major economies in Europe: The demand
Bloomberg code ICNT IN
from European nations continues to remain mixed with few major
Market cap. (US$ mn) 798 economies showing signs of improvement.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.6 • Inventory de-stocking: Inventory de-stocking for all the major
Issued shares (mn) 198 retailers is now largely behind and Indian companies are witnessing
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M increase in reorders from the customers.
Absolute (14) (1) 94 • Increase in realisations going forward: Indo Count Industries (ICIL)
Relative (14) (1) 76 is focused on increasing the share of value-added products through
licensing of brands, institutional fashion, luxury bedding etc. This
Valuation Ratios
is expected to result in increased realisation and improvement in
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
margins.
EPS (Rs) 18.2 14.0 17.1
• FTA with UK: FTA with UK is in the advanced stages. It is expected to
+/- (%) 41.0 (23.1) 22.1 result in structural revival of Home Textiles sector.

PER (x) 18.5 24.0 19.7 • Recent acquisition and in-licencing of brands: ICIL has recently
acquired WAMSUTTA brand from Beyond Inc. The company is planning
PBV (x) 4.2 3.7 3.2
to market the WAMSUTTA brand under ICIL’s premium product portfolio
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6
while recently in-licenced brand Fieldcrest will be marketed as mass
EV/Sales (x) 2.6 2.4 2.1 premium brand.

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.3 15.9 13.1 • Focus on increasing the share of value-added products: ICIL is
further looking to expand its portfolio of branded and in-licensed
Major Shareholders (%)
products. Acquisition of WAMSUTTA brand and licencing of Fieldcrest
Promoters 59
and Waverly is a step in this direction. The margin for the branded
FPIs 11
products ranges between 22-25%.
MFs 1
Public & Others 29 • Outlook: The company believes that FY25 is expected to be better
than FY24 on the back of increased capacity utilisation and improved
Relative Performance
demand conditions. ICIL aims to double its revenues in the next three-
500
four years. The revenue from all the brands is expected to be more
400
than US$ 100 mn.
300
200
Key triggers
100 • Increase in share of value-added products.
0 • Improvement of demand conditions in Europe resulting in increased
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

order flows.
• Completion of inventory liquidation by major retailers.
Indo Count Industries
Sensex (rebased) • FTA with UK and Europe would be a key trigger for Indian apparel and
Home Textile players.

Archit Joshi Roshan Nair

Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com roshan.nair@bksec.com

192
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials
Sales 19,342 20,801 25,192 28,420 30,116 35,571 13.0
EBITDA 1,557 1,832 3,767 4,341 4,543 5,590 29.1
PAT 602 1,722 2,543 3,586 2,768 3,379 41.2
Margin (%)
Gross margin 46.7 45.2 49.6 52.4 54.8 57.4 –
EBITDA margin 8.1 8.8 15.0 15.3 15.1 15.7 –
PAT margin 3.1 8.3 10.1 12.6 9.2 9.5 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 –
EPS (Rs) 3.1 8.7 12.9 18.2 14.0 17.1 41.1
BV (Rs) 49.4 50.0 65.1 80.6 90.5 105.5 16.4
RoCE (%) 9.0 13.6 22.0 21.6 14.7 17.6 –
RoA (%) 7.9 11.7 18.6 19.2 13.3 15.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 6.5 17.6 22.4 24.9 16.4 17.4 –
Net profit margin 3.1 8.3 10.1 12.6 9.2 9.5 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 –

193
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data IndusInd Bank

Price (Rs) 1,462
Bank aims for sustainable growth with balanced credit, robust
BSE Sensex 73,961 deposits and controlled costs
Reuters code INBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code IIB IN We met Mr Indrajeet Yadav, Head IR & Strategy, IndusInd Bank (IIB) at our
Market cap. (US$ mn) 13,640 Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 68.8 Credit composition and unsecured retail credit growth
Issued shares (mn) 779 • Some of the large banks’ unsecured retail credit growth at ~30% is
Target price (Rs) 1,885 unsustainable.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • There’s not much scope of loan repricing from hereon, loan
Absolute (4) (1) 14 composition would lead to better credit yield in FY25.
Relative (4) (1) (5) • The bank’s jewellery business would grow at moderate pace; the

Valuation Ratios loan composition has come down.

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E

Deposit mobilisation pace
• Retail deposit mobilisation pace is at double-digit and wholesale
Adj. EPS (Rs) 115.0 122.2 134.9
deposit is growing at single digit.
BVPS (Rs) 801.8 924.1 1059.2
• The bank wouldn’t exceed loan-deposit ratio mark of 90%.
Adj. Book 782.8 901.7 1035.0
Asset quality and credit cost
NAV/share (Rs)
• 139 bps was the credit cost excluding contingent provisions.
PER (x) 12.7 12.0 10.8
• The bank wouldn’t dip or add contingent provision.
Price/Book (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4
• Out of the initial contingent provision of Rs 18 bn, Rs 10 bn was for
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.9 1.6 1.4
Vodafone account. Since Vodafone doesn’t require any additional
Div. Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.3 provision so the bank has utilised contingent provision due to higher

Major Shareholders (%) delinquency in the past quarters.

Promoters 15 • Asset quality performance would be more or less similar.

FPIs 45 Operating expenses and Cost-to-Income ratio
MFs 16 • IIB’s cost-to-income ratio has peaked out.
BFSI’s 10
• The bulk of the operating cost has come from the retail side.
Public & Others 14
• The bank has ramped up distribution network.
Relative Performance
• Pressure on hiring is coming down. Attrition rate has come down
2,000
below 49%.
1,500
• Employees’ cost would grow at mid-teens.
1,000
• Opex run rate to come down.
500
• The IPL related cost is well distributed.
0
Vehicle business progression
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• In the vehicle business, there would be a value growth of 8-10 %. Now,

the bank’s PV segment is similar in size as that of CVs.
IndusInd Bank
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

194
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Tractor segment should witness a good demand this year due to anticipated better monsoon.
• Construction equipment demand is in a steady state.
MFI segment business
• There’s no asset quality issue right now barring in Punjab and Haryana states.
• Credit cost would be at 2-3% in the segment.
• The bank can do 20% growth.
• Average loan ticket size is at Rs 40k now, the book has maturity of one year.
• The credit yield is at 20.5%.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 88,462 120,587 135,279 150,008 175,921 206,159 240,615 284,106 18.4 17.4
Operating Expense 64,047 82,373 83,598 95,593 114,120 142,635 162,671 186,757 17.4 14.4
Operating Profit 80,882 107,727 117,267 127,758 143,465 157,403 185,648 220,825 14.2 18.4
PAT 32,290 44,179 28,364 46,111 73,897 89,498 98,451 113,272 22.6 12.5
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 266,860 347,065 433,654 476,972 546,217 627,971 725,387 838,659 18.7 15.6
Advances 1,863,935 2,067,832 2,125,954 2,390,515 2,899,237 3,432,983 4,012,283 4,635,553 13.0 16.2
Deposits 1,948,679 2,020,398 2,562,050 2,936,813 3,364,381 3,847,929 4,422,724 5,094,312 14.6 15.1
Total Assets 2,778,194 3,070,576 3,629,727 4,019,746 4,578,041 5,149,352 5,865,646 6,691,367 13.1 14.0
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 55 63 39 60 95 115 127 146 15.9 12.5
BV 437 486 557 612 700 802 928 1,074 12.9 15.7
ABV 413 466 542 597 683 783 906 1,048 13.7 15.7
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8
ROE 13.0 14.7 7.4 10.2 14.5 15.3 14.6 14.5
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
NNPA 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
PCR 43.0 63.3 74.5 72.3 70.6 70.6 71.1 71.7
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 13.7 14.6 16.8 16.8 16.4 15.8 16.0 16.2
Total cap. adequacy 14.2 15.0 17.4 18.4 17.9 17.2 17.0 17.0

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/IndusInd Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 25 Apr 24.pdf

195
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Info Edge (India)

Price (Rs) 5,697
Resilience on display
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code INED.BO
• Info Edge (India) (INFOE), over the past several quarters, has been
Bloomberg code INFOE IN
bit by sluggishness in IT hiring, evident by tepid billing growth. The
Market cap. (US$ mn) 8,835 same has potentially bottomed out. 7% billing growth for 4QFY24
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 21.4 was encouraging, and there is a possibility of turnaround for Naukri
Issued shares (mn) 129 should these green shoots sustain. The management also alluded
Target price (Rs) 6,912 that billing growth during the recent quarter was broad-based.
Clients renewing packages for a period of 12 months is encouraging
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
too.
Absolute (6) 8 40
• Non-IT has slowed down as compared to a year ago. There is a lot
Relative (6) 8 22
of talent supply in the market, making it easier for non-IT companies
Valuation Ratios
to hire. Net hiring has softened, but gross hiring is sustaining. There
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E were price hikes in certain categories, not across the platform.
EPS (Rs) 66.1 72.5 90.9 • INFOE’s strategic businesses like JobHai and AmbitionBox have

+/- (%) 18.7 9.6 25.4 started monetisation in a small way over the past few months. The
management believes these have the potential to grow at a much
PER (x) 86.1 78.5 62.6
faster rate going forward. The model here shall be to monetize
PBV (x) 2.9 2.8 2.7 job listings. They also plan to offer certain branding solutions in
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.6 AmbitionBox.

EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.4 0.6

• The company is opening new branches in tier-2 and tier-3 cities.
They operate around 79 branches as on date. Such branches have
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.0 25.8 21.1
4-5 employees.
Major Shareholders (%) • 99acres continues to report robust performance. Unsold inventory
Promoters 38 levels remain low in top 8 cities. Developers continue to see healthy
FPIs 31 response to new project launches. This has led to strong billing growth
MFs 12 across locations. The supply of units is limited, and sales happen
BFSI’s 8
immediately as soon as properties come up for sale. The company is
Public & Others 11
making efforts to increase their market share in some geographies.
Relative Performance • Shiksha remains steady. Launch of new universities provides
7,000 opportunities for the platform to grow. The company continues to
6,000
5,000 make investments in strengthening the Study Abroad platform.
4,000
• JeevanSaathi continues to see good results post implementation
3,000
2,000 of the freemium strategy. This is evidenced by the overall growth
1,000 in the vertical. Teams in the segment are exploring new models to
0
monetize. They have launched some services, which contributes to
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

growth as more users end up buying such add-on services.

Info Edge India

Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• In certain verticals, the company plans to reduce marketing spends. This, coupled with growth in
revenues, will help them reach break-even levels.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 10,982 12,727 11,280 15,625 21,585 23,810 27,619 33,695 16.7 19.0
EBITDA 3,413 4,027 2,881 4,637 7,945 9,551 10,882 13,859 22.9 20.5
PAT 3,151 3,290 2,817 4,404 7,163 8,501 9,319 11,686 22.0 17.2
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 31.1 31.6 25.5 29.7 36.8 40.1 39.4 41.1 – –

PAT margin 28.7 25.8 25.0 28.2 33.2 35.7 33.7 34.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 25.8 25.6 21.9 34.3 55.7 66.1 72.5 90.9 – –

BV (Rs) 190.3 189.1 349.4 1,086.6 849.8 1,981.4 2,028.5 2,087.5 – –

RoCE (%) 19.5 18.6 10.3 6.1 7.0 5.8 4.5 5.4 – –

RoA (%) 15.5 14.8 8.7 5.5 6.4 5.4 4.2 5.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 14.2 13.8 8.1 4.8 5.8 4.7 3.6 4.4 – –

Net profit margin 28.7 25.8 25.0 28.2 33.2 35.7 33.7 34.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Info Edge (India) - 4QFY24 Result Update - 16 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data INOX India

Price (Rs) 1,260
Green energy to give greener future
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code 0.0
• The company got listed on NSE and BSE on 21 December 2023. Further,
Bloomberg code INOXINDI IN
it commissioned the new plant at Savli, Gujarat and has started
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,371 receiving orders from various global customers. The plant is expected
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.0 to generate an additional revenue of Rs 1 bn in FY25.
Issued shares (mn) 90.8 • Currently, INOX India is operating at 80% capacity utilisation with all
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M the three plants combined. The Savli plant is expected to operate at
Absolute (7) 6 0 100% capacity in the next two-three years from the current capacity

Relative (7) 6 (18) utilisation of 30-40%.

• The company benefits from being a part of the Inox group, which has a
Valuation Ratios
strong presence in various sectors including air gases and cryogenic
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
tanks.
EPS (Rs) 14.4 16.8 21.6
• There are ample opportunities as various corporates are setting up
+/- (%) 35.7 17.0 28.3 facilities for green hydrogen production capacity of 5 mtpa by 2030.

PER (x) 89.3 76.3 59.5 Demand is coming from India, Middle East, North & South America,
and advancements in Europe.
PBV (x) 23.2 21.2 18.0
• With the stabilisation of the LNG prices, the market for LNG Fueling
EV/Sales (x) 14.5 11.7 10.1
Stations, LCNG Stations & LNG Fuel Tanks for vehicles would continue to
EV/EBITDA (x) 67.9 55.5 45.5 grow in India. Currently, the company is focusing on LNG with maximum

Major Shareholders (%) production from USA versus earlier from Qatar and Australia only.

Promoters 75
• There are 35 LNG stations commissioned and another 15 are WIP. INOX
FPIs 6 India supplies about 80% products to these 35 stations.
MFs 5 • On the case against the company for disposal cylinders, The US-DOC,
BFSI’s 1 after the scrutiny verification for last six months, gave its verdict for
Public & Others 12 0% anti-dumping duty in case of INOX India, whereas its competitors

Relative Performance on India have an anti-dumping duty and CVD of 8.5%+. Hence, the

1,600
company expects good orders in the future.
1,400
• In FY24, the company recorded its highest-ever order inflows at Rs
1,200
1,000 12 bn, up 14% YoY taking the order backlog as of March 2024 to Rs 10.9
800
600 bn, up 8% YoY. Business-wise the order book stands well-diversified
400
200
with industrial gas/LNG/Cryo Scientific at 55/20/25%, respectively, and
0 geography-wise, 52% of the backlog is comprised of export orders.
Jan-24
Feb-24
Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

INOX India
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

198
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 5,938 7,827 9,659 11,312 24.0

EBITDA 1,346 1,676 2,044 2,503 23.0
PAT 962 1,305 1,527 1,960 26.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 58.3 56.9 55.2 56.3 –

EBITDA margin 22.7 21.4 21.2 22.1 –
PAT margin 16.2 16.7 15.8 17.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.6) (0.6) (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 10.6 14.4 16.8 21.6 26.8
BV (Rs) 40.9 55.3 60.5 71.5 20.4
RoCE (%) 60.9 34.6 36.7 41.9 –
RoA (%) 40.2 22.3 20.4 22.4 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 51.8 29.9 29.0 32.7 –

Net profit margin 16.2 16.7 15.8 17.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 –

199
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Jammu & Kashmir Bank

Price (Rs) 132
Gearing up for growth: Banking on cost efficiency and expansion
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code JKBK.BO
We met Mr Rakesh Koul, General Manager and Head of Treasury &
Bloomberg code JKBK IN Business Operations, Mr Fayaz Ahmad Ganai, CFO and Mr Mohammad
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,738 Ishaq Bhat, Head of Investor Relations, Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JKBK) at
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 9.1 our Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
Issued shares (mn) 1,101 Credit growth expectations
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Credit growth would be at 15% YoY; there could be positive surprise.
Absolute (4) (8) 129 • The bank’s focus area is retail.
Relative (4) (8) 111 • The bank would lend high-rated corporates, mainly to PSU entities and

Valuation Ratios some of the OMCs. The bank has a direct relationship with all the PSU
corporates.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
Competition in the home state
Adj. EPS (Rs) 5.4 11.6 16.0
• SBI and PNB already have good network in J&K state. Some of the large
BVPS (Rs) 75.7 84.0 99.8 PVBs also have branch network. But these PVBs are mainly present in
Adj. Book 57.0 71.0 93.1 urban areas, they are not in the rural areas.
NAV/share (Rs)
• JKBK’s CASA deposit strength lies in rural areas.
PER (x) 24.6 11.4 8.2 Contained operating expenses
Price/Book (x) 1.7 1.6 1.3 • The bank’s intermediation cost is higher, that’s why other opex is higher.
Price/Adj. book (x) 2.3 1.9 1.4 • In the actuarial assumption, return on capital assumption wasn’t
captured adequately and resulted into higher pension cost.
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.1 0.1
• Other opex could rise by 8-10% YoY; employees expenses growth would
Major Shareholders (%)
be at 7-8% in FY25.
Promoters 59
• Employees cost would not rise by more than 5% in FY26.
FPIs 7
Margin and return ratio guidance
MFs 5
BFSI’s 3 • The bank’s management expects margin (NIM) at 385 bps in FY25.
Public & Others 25 • RoA guidance at 1.3%, RoE would beat ~18% in FY25.

Relative Performance • Aging provision would be Rs 2.0 bn in FY25. Write-back of provision

160 would be at Rs 3.0-3.5 bn in FY25.
140
120 • Credit cost would be quite comfortable in FY26 also; credit cost would
100 not exceed 40 bps.
80
60 Miscellaneous
40
20 • The bank expensed Rs 3.0 bn in IT-related capitalised cost.
0
• The bank would add 14 branches in rest of India.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• In J&K, there won’t be much spending on physical branches; instead,

Jammu & Kashmir Bank the bank will be adding smaller branches.
Sensex (rebased) • Branches do not underwrite loans; they only send the leads.

Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

200
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(19-24)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 33,839 37,067 37,708 39,112 47,453 52,037 9.0
Operating Expense 24,787 27,275 28,785 35,928 36,436 37,523 8.6
Operating Profit 17,179 15,250 16,112 10,625 18,585 22,769 5.8
PAT 4,649 (11,394) 4,321 5,016 11,974 17,673 30.6
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 66,261 63,935 68,256 81,072 99,432 122,357 13.1
Advances 662,715 643,991 668,417 704,007 822,855 937,625 7.2
Deposits 896,389 977,882 1,080,611 1,147,104 1,220,377 1,347,749 8.5
Total Assets 1,014,063 1,088,721 1,202,919 1,306,024 1,459,623 1,545,266 8.8
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 8 (16) 6 5 12 16 14.0
BV 108 76 82 76 84 100 (1.6)
ABV 50 44 54 57 71 93 13.3
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 0.5 (1.1) 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.2
ROE 8.0 (20.0) 7.7 7.8 15.2 18.0
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.0
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 9.0 11.0 9.7 8.7 6.0 4.1
NNPA 4.9 3.5 2.9 2.5 1.6 0.8
PCR 47.9 70.8 71.7 73.2 74.4 81.4
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 10.6 9.8 10.3 11.7 12.3 13.1
Total cap. adequacy 12.5 11.4 12.2 13.2 15.4 15.3

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Jammu & Kashmir Bank - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 07
May 24.pdf

201
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Jindal SAW

Price (Rs) 538
Industry tailwinds to aid volumes, margins to improve from
BSE Sensex 73,961 operational efficiencies…
Reuters code JIND.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code JSAW IN • This quarter, Jindal SAW (JSAW) witnessed poor performance in MENA
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,061 region because Israel has become a hotspot. Ramadan also affected
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.9 volumes. Few of major projects in major countries had a delayed start.
Issued shares (mn) 320 • The company expects overall volumes to be higher than last year this
Target price (Rs) 843 year in MENA region. The company also expects 1QFY25 in MENA region

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M to be significantly better than 4QFY24.

Absolute (3) 13 121 • The company guided EBITDA margin to be in range of 16-17% due to
initiatives on cost control and productivity which are bearing results.
Relative (3) 13 103
• JSAW expects 10-15% growth in volumes over the next two years.
Valuation Ratios
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • JSAW is not very concerned about OPVC pipes being a competition in
water segment.
EPS (Rs) 52.4 58.1 65.5
• Overseas opportunity size:
Change (%) 150.7 10.8 12.7
o HSAW pipes have a disadvantage that it cannot be transported
PER (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 due to weight to volume ratio. DI pipes is easily transportable.
PBV (x) 1.7 1.4 1.2 o Saudi is developing and going through a transformation like
Div./Yield (%) 0.7 1.7 1.9 infrastructure building up. The company expects strong growth
from Saudi, despite Saudi having protectionist measures for local
EV/Sales (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
suppliers. This is because local capacities are not nearly enough
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 6.1 5.4 to cater to growing demand in Saudi.
Major Shareholders (%) o In these areas, HSAW demand is good. Only concern is the volatile
Promoters 63 situation there at present.
FPIs 15 o HSAW capacity in the MENA region is limited. Indians are among
MFs 2 the major suppliers there. China is gradually becoming isolated
BFSI’s 1
due to its supply of poor-quality pipes.
Public & Others 19
o US is a very limited market for JSAW.
Relative Performance
o Europe can be a very good market for seamless and DI if not for
700
the sluggish growth.
600
500 o JSAW’s current focus lies in Middle East and India.
400
300 • JSAW exports DI pipes only from Abu Dhabi facility. Indian capacities
200 are used to cater only domestic demand.
100
0 • The company expects raw material prices to now move in a band and
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

be range-bound.
• Coking coal cost for the company will go down further as JSAW, in the
Jindal Saw
last two years, has been working on getting new batteries which will
Sensex (rebased)
lead to cost saving and cost of production is expected to go down.
Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla
Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

202
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 121,170 116,270 106,636 132,984 178,681 209,577 238,525 252,627 11.6 9.8
EBITDA 14,751 15,225 12,415 14,020 16,644 33,210 35,779 37,136 17.6 5.7
PAT 4,723 6,668 3,189 4,117 6,690 16,770 18,591 20,960 28.8 11.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 38.4 40.4 43.5 40.6 37.4 42.0 41.0 41.0 – –

EBITDA margin 12.2 13.1 11.6 10.5 9.3 15.8 15.0 14.7 – –

PAT margin 3.9 5.7 3.0 3.1 3.7 8.0 7.8 8.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 – –

EPS (Rs) 14.8 20.9 10.0 12.9 20.9 52.4 58.1 65.5 28.8 11.8
BV (Rs) 196.5 211.5 218.4 230.3 247.7 315.7 382.5 458.0 9.9 20.5
RoCE (%) 9.9 9.7 7.9 8.2 10.3 19.9 18.3 18.0 – –

RoA (%) 8.5 7.9 6.3 6.5 7.9 14.9 14.1 13.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 8.0 10.2 4.6 5.7 8.8 18.6 16.6 15.6 – –

Net profit margin 3.9 5.7 3.0 3.1 3.7 8.0 7.8 8.3 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Jindal SAW - 4QFY24 Result Update - 08 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Jindal Stainless

Price (Rs) 794
Strategic capex and better ESG footprint enhance valuation
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code JIST.BO
• The company has ramped up at Jajpur unit which led to a significant
Bloomberg code JDSL IN
jump in volume during the quarter as well as full year, domestic demand
Market cap. (US$ mn) 7,831 is very strong and achieved highest ever sales in wagon segment.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 17.4 • On the export front, the outlook remains muted due to geopolitical
Issued shares (mn) 823 issues and the Red Sea crisis.
Target price (Rs) 772 • 1Q EBITDA/tonne will be better than 4Q considering the better SS prices
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M led by improvement of nickel and ferrochrome prices.
Absolute 12 24 170 • Despite the fall in nickel prices the company has been able to improve
Relative 12 24 152 the volume, which is not similar to the historical trends.

Valuation Ratios • NPI project is supposed to commission by 2QFY25 which is earlier was
4QFY25. By FY26, capacity utilisation of their NPI facility will reach 90%
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
level.
EPS (Rs) 31.5 49.9 65.6
• Rathi Steel is currently operating at 70% capacity utilization. However,
Change (%) 24.5 58.4 31.6 starting from this quarter, the company has begun producing rebar,
PER (x) 25.2 15.9 12.1 whereas previously they were only producing the less value-accretive
wire rod.
PBV (x) 4.6 3.6 2.8
• Currently, the company is doing a trial run for the Rabirun project
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.7
which is producing 1,500 tonnes per quarter.
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.5 1.2
• In FY24, series wise overall product mix stood at 200 series 35%, 300
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 11.6 9.3 series 45% and 400 series 20% (in FY23 it was 14%).
Major Shareholders (%) • After the recent investment, considering the upcoming domestic
Promoters 60 demand, the company will come out with the next capex.
FPIs 21 • The company has reduced their stake in Jindal Coke by 4% (from
MFs 4 26%) and the rest will be done by September 2024, in line with the ESG
BFSI’s 2 initiatives of the company.
Public & Others 12
• The company has further consolidated domestic business by
Relative Performance acquiring a majority stake in Chromeni Steels (CPSL), and secured
1,000 access to Indonesia’s nickel reserves (as Government banned nickel
800 ore exports) through a 49% stake in a stainless-steel melt shop held
600 by Tsingshan (largest SS company in the world and largest exporter
400 to India).
200
• The CPSL acquisition may take a few more months to get final
0
approval, and it will take six months to start production at that plant.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

CPSL’s facility management has guided for EBITDA per tonne of 18-20k.
• Indonesia CRM asset sales liquidation process has been started, which
Jindal Stainless
Sensex (rebased) is on track and expected to close by FY25.

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

204
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Exports are going to be under pressure considering the higher freight cost, so the company will try to
push their volume in the domestic market.
• The company has guided for 20% YoY volume growth with EBITDA/tonne guidance of Rs 18-20k (excl. JUSL
EBITDA). JUSL EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs 1,780 mn with volume of 4.54 LT.
• For FY25 and FY26, the management has provided a capex guidance of Rs 53 bn and Rs 13 bn including
all the investment made by the company in the recent past.
• The company has already refinanced their long-term debt to enhance their debt maturity period by
four-five years. Despite ongoing capex, the company is confident of maintaining healthy liquidity and
leverage ratio.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24E-26E)

Financials

Sales 135,573 129,509 121,885 327,327 356,970 385,625 477,727 555,484 23.3 20.0

EBITDA 11,646 11,395 14,242 50,905 35,861 47,043 60,995 72,030 32.2 23.7

PAT 1,451 726 4,195 31,094 20,838 25,943 41,087 54,053 78.0 44.3

Margin (%)

Gross Margin 32.8 33.4 34.6 34.8 31.4 30.7 31.9 31.5 – –

EBITDA Margin 9.2 9.3 11.8 15.6 10.0 12.2 12.8 13.0 – –

PAT Margin 2.3 2.1 5.2 9.5 5.8 7.0 8.6 9.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 3.0 1.5 8.6 37.8 25.3 31.5 49.9 65.6 60.3 44.3

BV (Rs) 53.2 55.8 65.8 119.3 144.9 174.4 220.3 280.9 26.8 26.9

ROCE (%) 10.6 9.6 13.5 38.1 18.4 20.2 21.8 23.3 – –

RoA (%) 8.1 7.1 9.9 26.4 12.0 13.8 15.7 16.7 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) 5.9 2.7 14.2 47.7 19.2 19.7 25.3 26.2 – –

Net Profit Margin 1.1 0.6 3.4 9.5 5.8 6.7 8.6 9.7 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 – –

Leverage Factor (x) 4.2 4.0 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Jindal Stainless - 4QFY24 Result Update - 16 May 24.pdf

205
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Jindal Steel & Power

Price (Rs) 1,028
Capacity expansion, raw material links – growth catalysts
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code JNSP.BO
• In 4Q, overall NSR was down by 5% QoQ, largely due to lower prices in
Bloomberg code JSP IN
the domestic and international markets.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 12570.4
• During the quarter, overall coking coal price impact was US$ 15-20/
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 23.7 tonne; however, recent correction in prices will be led to lower coking
Issued shares (mn) 1,020 prices impact to the tune of US$ 30-40/tonne in 1QFY25.
Target price (Rs) 1,077 • Overall, net debt during the quarter has gone up to Rs 112 bn, largely due
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M to higher capex spending. However, the company wants to maintain
Absolute 11 32 99 the debt position in control.
Relative 10 32 81 • During the quarter the company has increased the coking coal
inventory and finished good inventory which has increased their
Valuation Ratios
overall working capital requirements.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• As per the management, all the ongoing projects are on track, and
EPS (Rs) 59.1 61.2 80.2
they don’t expect any capex and cost overrun for that.
Change (%) 88.9 3.5 31.0 • For FY25, the company has provided a capex guidance of Rs 75-100 bn
PER (x) 17.4 16.8 12.8 depending upon the EBITDA generation capabilities.

PBV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.8 • Management does not provide any volume guidance; however, they
believe FY25 volume number will be better as compared to FY24.
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2
• Recently acquired two coal blocks Utkal B1 and B2 is on track and the
EV/Sales (x) 2.3 1.9 1.5
company is in a very advanced position to open this mine.
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 9.0 7.2
• During 4Q, throughput from their coal mines, Gare Palma 4/6 is 1 MT
Major Shareholders (%) and Utkal C is 0.9 MT respectively; however, they have EC limit of 5 mtpa.
Promoters 61 • The company has taken a write-off Rs 3.6 bn for their Australian asset
FPIs 14 largely driven by asset impairments.
MFs 11
• Currently, the company is not selling any pellet outside as their pellet
BFSI’s 3
plant is ramping up gradually (9,000-10,000/tonne per day) and post
Public & Others 10
BF commissioning they will consume pellet internally.
Relative Performance • Out of their full ongoing capex of Rs 31 bn, they have spent 50% and the
1,200 rest will be done in the coming year.
1,000
800 • In the 1QFY25, till now overall NSR is up by Rs 1,000/tonne and the
600 company is expecting further upside in the pricing.
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Jindal Steel & Power

Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

206
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24E-26E)

Financials

Sales 393,721 369,175 389,886 510,856 527,112 500,268 614,238 752,830 4.9 22.7

EBITDA 84,056 78,539 144,443 155,135 99,349 102,008 126,382 156,037 3.9 23.7

PAT (24,115) (3,997) 55,269 82,486 31,933 59,436 61,536 80,608 19.8 16.5

Margin (%)

Gross Margin 58.8 60.5 72.5 59.9 53.1 56.0 54.6 55.3 – –

EBITDA Margin 21.3 21.3 37.0 30.4 18.9 20.4 20.6 20.7 – –

PAT Margin -6.1 -1.1 14.2 16.1 6.1 11.9 10.0 10.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 – –

EPS (Rs) (23.7) (3.9) 54.2 80.9 31.3 59.1 61.2 80.2 20.0 16.5

BV (Rs) 315.8 315.1 311.9 349.3 379.5 441.0 499.7 577.4 6.9 14.4

ROCE (%) 4.0 5.7 17.9 22.8 12.4 11.8 12.9 16.0 – –

RoA (%) 3.3 4.5 13.8 17.4 10.0 10.2 11.0 13.1 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) (7.7) (1.2) 17.3 24.5 8.6 14.3 13.0 14.9 – –

Net Profit Margin (6.1) (1.1) 14.2 16.1 6.1 11.9 10.0 10.7 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 – –

Leverage Factor (x) 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Jindal Steel & Power - 4QFY24 Result Update - 13 May
24.pdf

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Share Data JSW Energy

Price (Rs) 613
Structural growth from clean energies
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code JSWE.BO
• The overall generation of the company increased by 7.1% in FY24 and
Bloomberg code JSW IN
generation from renewable sources increased by 11% in FY24.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 12,841
• Higher thermal generation coupled with contribution from acquired
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 28.1 RE portfolio resulted in an overall higher energy generation.
Issued shares (mn) 1,748 • The company recently raised Rs 50 bn in QIP, it can grow faster with
Target price (Rs) 645 increased capex.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Further it has enabled option for fund raising of Rs 100 bn, which will
Absolute (3) 21 141 be utilised to streamline its path towards 20 GW capacity, and the
Relative (3) 20 123 management is well confident to achieve that in FY28 itself.

Valuation Ratios • Capex guidance for FY25 has increased to ~Rs 150 bn (from Rs 100 bn).

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • JSW Energy is all set for expansion to 20 GW by FY28 from 7.3 GW
currently, while keeping leverage ratios under check. Most of the
EPS 10.5 17.1 21.2
upcoming capacities will be renewable energy.
Change (%) 16.5 62.7 24.0
• Also visibility of demand from group captive business remain strong
PER (x) 58.3 35.8 28.9
• The merchant market power sale will play a significant role along with
PBV(x) 4.8 3.6 3.2 the existing PPA sale.

Yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.5

EV/Sales (x) 11.0 8.3 7.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 23.6 17.0 15.0

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 74
FPIs 9
MFs 1
BFSI’s 9
Public & Others 8

Relative Performance
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

JSW Energy
Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Somnath Saha

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com somnath.saha@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 91,376 82,727 69,222 81,672 103,318 114,859 160,323 184,872 4.7 26.9

EBITDA 28,531 29,569 29,066 35,690 32,818 53,818 77,947 92,456 13.5 31.1

PAT 6,845 10,812 8,227 17,435 14,801 17,247 28,066 34,802 20.3 42.1

Margin (%)

Gross margin 99.1 99.5 100.0 99.0 96.4 98.9 99.2 99.3 – –

EBITDA margin 31.2 35.7 42.0 43.7 31.8 46.9 48.6 50.0 – –

PAT margin 7.5 13.1 11.9 21.3 14.3 15.0 17.5 18.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.74 0.63 0.42 0.37 1.07 1.26 1.15 1.23 – –

EPS (Rs) 4.2 6.6 5.0 10.6 9.0 10.5 17.1 21.2 20.3 42.1

BV (Rs) 72.0 71.0 88.4 106.1 113.5 126.9 171.8 190.1 12.0 22.4

RoCE (%) 19.1 9.8 9.0 11.8 7.2 8.4 10.4 10.7 – –

RoA (%) 15.9 8.1 7.7 10.5 6.6 7.9 9.8 10.2 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 11.6 9.2 6.3 10.9 8.2 8.7 11.4 11.7 – –

Net profit margin 7.5 13.1 11.9 21.3 14.3 15.0 17.5 18.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/JSW Energy - 4QFY24 Result - 07 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Kalpataru Projects International

Price (Rs) 1,195
Strong outlook across business segments
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KAPT.BO
• Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) is facing lower competitive
Bloomberg code KPIL IN
intensity for orders above Rs 5 bn, whereas orders worth sub Rs 3 bn
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,327 and below levels continue to witness higher competition with a lot of
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.0 private players bidding for the T&D projects.
Issued shares (mn) 162 • The segment witnessed renewed optimism backed by rising adoption
Target price (Rs) 1,043 of renewables, increasing demand for power and the need for
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M upgradation of T&D infrastructure. Tender pipeline in domestic as well

Absolute (2) 24 123 as international market remains robust at Rs 1 trn to be awarded over
the next two-three years.
Relative (3) 23 104
• For its B&F business, with its improved presence in airports, data
Valuation Ratios
centres and industrial projects, the company is aiming at improving
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
their competitive position and capabilities further. It expects a very
EPS (Rs) 32.3 56.7 78.0 promising business outlook across residential, commercial, and

+/- (%) 47.9 75.7 37.7

institutional buildings. The company expects to maintain a double-
digit growth rate backed by a healthy order book and excellent
PER (x) 37.6 21.4 15.5
business visibility in residential and commercial buildings, airports,
PBV (x) 3.8 3.4 2.9 industrial plants, data centres, etc.
Div./Yield (%) 0.7 1.2 1.7 • For its water business, it is focusing on enhancing execution capabilities

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.9 0.7

and strengthening its competitive position to effectively handle large
price projects.
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 10.4 8.5
• KPIL is not focusing much on the railways business. Given the increase
Major Shareholders (%) in competitive intensity, the company continues to focus on project
Promoters 41 closure and selective order booking.
FPIs 8
• As the international Oil & Gas (O&G) market has a better margin profile,
MFs 41
KPIL is focusing more on this market. Also, not much is happening in
BFSI’s 3
the domestic O&G market from the PSUs side.
Public & Others 8
• With an increased capital outlay of Rs 11 trn for the infra development
Relative Performance in the nation, there are enormous opportunities in the urban mobility
1,400 segment, especially in elevated and underground metro rail,
1,200
expressway, elevated corridors, etc.
1,000
800 • Going ahead, good revenue growth and better margins are expected
600
from the international subsidiaries i.e., LMG and Fasttel.
400
200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Kalpataru Projects…
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 71,151 79,040 76,710 147,774 163,610 196,260 249,429 306,172 23.1 24.9

EBITDA 7,782 8,601 8,080 11,896 13,700 16,280 21,347 26,968 15.2 28.7

PAT 4,013 4,394 4,581 3,819 3,488 5,160 9,068 12,484 (3.4) 55.5

Margin (%)

Gross margin 58.5 58.7 63.6 56.4 57.4 58.2 57.7 57.9 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 10.9 10.9 10.5 8.0 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.8 – –

PAT margin 5.6 5.6 6.0 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 – –

EPS (Rs) 26.1 28.6 30.6 25.5 21.8 32.3 56.7 78.0 (4.4) 55.5

BV (Rs) 205.4 230.4 258.4 295.5 293.3 319.6 359.4 414.3 9.3 13.9

RoCE (%) 19.6 17.9 15.3 12.4 10.5 12.7 17.4 21.0 – –

RoA (%) 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.5 5.9 8.1 10.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 13.6 13.1 12.4 9.2 7.7 10.5 16.7 20.2 – –

Net profit margin 5.6 5.6 6.0 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Kalpataru Projects International - 4QFY24 Result Update
- 09 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Karnataka Bank

Price (Rs) 214
Bank guides for NIM improvement and higher recoveries amid
BSE Sensex 73,961 focus on FinTech partnership
Reuters code KBNK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code KBL IN We met Mr Srikrishnan Hari Hara Sarma, MD & CEO, Karnataka Bank at
Market cap. (US$ mn) 969 our Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.9 Margin guidance
Issued shares (mn) 377 • The bank maintains NIM guidance at 350-370 bps.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The bank would maintain or slightly increase credit yield.
Absolute (7) (6) 42 Segmental credit growth
Relative (7) (6) 23
• The bank has been witnessing credit growth in Housing loan and
Valuation Ratios Gold loan primarily. The bank would launch unsecured retail loans
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E also.

Adj. EPS (Rs) 16.3 37.8 30.9 • The loan mix would remain the same in FY25, as it is now.
• The bank would trim credit exposures to NBFCs and replace it with
BVPS (Rs) 213.2 246.6 274.2
more productive products.
Adj. Book 180.8 219.8 249.2
NAV/share (Rs) • Fee income business

PER (x) 13.1 5.7 6.9

• The bank would try to improve fee income. The bank has done lot of
JVs with insurance companies and with brokerage companies.
Price/Book (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
On Cost-to-Income ratio going ahead
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9
• The current cost-to-income ratio is around 50%.
Div. Yield (%) 1.8 2.3 2.5
• The bank aims to bring this down to sub-50% by FY25 through cost
Major Shareholders (%) limitation and income increase.
FPIs 19 On credit cost
MFs 10 • The current credit cost is 0.8%, with the industry standard being
BFSI’s 13
around 1%.
Public & Others 58
• It expected the credit cost to be at 0.85% to 1%, supported by healthy
Relative Performance recoveries and reduced slippages.
300
Digital business
250
200 • Some of the bank’s customers are using other banks for Digital
150 purposes.
100
50 • Growing the existing accounts, business through Fintechs.
0 On capital adequacy and equity raising
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The bank’s current capital suffices up to Rs 900 bn to Rs 1 trn in

advances.
Karnataka Bank
Sensex (rebased) • There is a potential to raise Tier 2 capital if needed by the bank, given
favourable conditions and improved credit rating.

Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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On NPAs and recoveries

• The bank has ~75% of the NPA book covered with collateral, indicating high recoverability.
• The bank saw significant recoveries last year from sales to ARCs and one-time settlements.
• The average ticket size for recoveries and one-time settlements remains up to Rs 500 mn.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 19,051 20,304 21,832 24,910 31,851 32,987
Operating Expense 14,573 17,696 16,791 18,109 19,695 24,543
Operating Profit 14,498 16,568 19,083 16,340 22,082 21,633
PAT 4,772 4,318 4,826 5,086 11,802 13,063
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 56,659 59,704 65,864 70,947 82,134 108,485
Advances 548,282 569,643 515,158 567,831 599,516 715,086
Deposits 684,521 717,852 756,549 803,868 873,680 980,578
Total Assets 790,458 833,135 856,154 915,840 990,583 1,160,846
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 17 14 16 16 38 31
BV 186 177 197 213 247 274
ABV 141 130 155 181 220 249
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.5
ROE 9.4 8.0 8.3 8.0 16.5 17.3
Margins (%)
NIMs 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.4
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 4.4 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.7 3.5
NNPA 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.6
PCR 34.2 37.3 36.4 38.8 55.5 56.2
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 11.2 10.7 12.3 12.6 14.2 16.2
Total cap. adequacy 13.2 12.7 14.8 15.7 17.4 20.8

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Karnataka Bank - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 28 May
24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Karur Vysya Bank

Price (Rs) 197
Bank targets strong advances growth with focus on retail, SMEs
BSE Sensex 73,961 and digitisation
Reuters code KARU.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code KVB IN Guidance
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,888 • The bank guided for advances growth to be at 14% YoY, in which
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.7 composition can undergo change to go with the yields. It can also
Issued shares (mn) 799 grow faster than 14% YoY, but liabilities can be a constraint for the bank.
Target price (Rs) 208 • The CD ratio is at 84-85% now and the RBI comfort level of the CD ratio
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M is 80-85%. Hence, the bank believes it is no point in increasing the CD
Absolute (3) 7 86 ratio to 90%.

Relative (3) 7 68 • The deposit growth guided is at 14% YoY and the bank has all engines
ready to deploy the funds to credit.
Valuation Ratios
On various business segments
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Commercial banking
Adj. EPS (Rs) 20.0 21.4 22.9
o The composition is at 34% currently and the portfolio consists of
BVPS (Rs) 124.8 143.0 162.4
SMEs up to Rs 250 mn ticket size.
Adj. Book 122.0 139.6 158.3 o There are 2 sub-segments in this segment – Small Business Group
NAV/share (Rs)
for less than Rs 100 mn ticket size and Business Banking group for
PER (x) 9.8 9.1 8.5 ticket sizes between Rs 50-250 mn.
Price/Book (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 o The yields in this segment are better than 10% and the
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 disbursements are going up by 20-25% YoY.
• Corporate banking
Div. Yield (%) 1.3 1.7 1.9
o The corporate book was a major proportion of the portfolio
Major Shareholders (%)
previously at 30-35%. In 2016, the bank revamped the approach of
Promoters 2
this portfolio and scaled down the corporate book.
FPIs 16
o The composition of this book has now gone down to 19%.
MFs 28
BFSI’s 7 o The average ticket size is Rs 400 mn and it has brought down
Public & Others 47 major big exposures in the corporate book.

Relative Performance • Retail book

250 o The book mainly consists of Mortgages and Housing Loan.

200 o 55% of the branches for retail are in semi-urban and rural areas.
150
o The bank is selective in Housing Loan segments to protect its margins.
100
o Personal Loan is majorly Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) only. The bank
50
0
has slowed down the PL book and is now focusing more on the
BNPL partnership.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

o In the BNPL portfolio, FLDG is at 5% now and yields at 12%. The bank
Karur Vysya Bank/The is well covered with the stress in this book. The bank has a co-
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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lending programme for BNPL with an NBFC partner, who does the collection and recoveries for the
bank, along with having a risk management team.
• Jewel loans
o The bank commented that progress is there in this segment and there is scope to take it forward.
o 98% of the agri book was Jewel Loans previously, which is now at 90%.
o The total gold loan has now come down to 25%, which the bank believes is the ideal proportion.
o The LTV on the gold loans was at 68% previously which has come down to 64%.
On asset quality
• The bank maintained Rs 1 bn floating provision last year for ECL.
• The restructured book which was at 4-5% previously is less than 1% now. 48% of the book is provided and is
backed by real estate collateral majorly.
• The non-corporate TWO pool is at Rs 20-22 bn. The recovery in this pool used to be in double digits three
years back and the bank now recovered Rs 3.4 bn in FY24, which it aims to maintain in FY25E as well.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 23,628 23,479 23,595 27,154 33,488 38,092 41,635 47,145 10.0 11.3
Operating Expense 16,148 17,417 19,868 18,542 20,320 26,388 28,383 32,103 10.3 10.3
Operating Profit 17,108 17,608 14,293 17,373 24,639 28,291 32,299 36,346 10.6 13.3
PAT 2,109 2,350 3,594 6,733 11,061 16,048 17,832 19,871 50.1 11.3
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 64,228 66,003 69,597 75,962 85,841 100,401 115,526 132,380 9.3 14.8
Advances 485,808 460,981 503,635 546,612 631,341 736,675 844,531 960,175 8.7 14.2
Deposits 598,680 590,751 632,784 684,860 766,376 891,127 998,797 1,130,943 8.3 12.7
Total Assets 693,401 682,782 746,232 800,713 901,794 1,055,852 1,181,048 1,338,498 8.8 12.6
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 3 3 4 8 14 20 22 25 49.9 11.3
BV 80 83 87 95 107 125 144 165 9.2 14.8
ABV 61 63 73 84 103 122 140 160 15.0 14.6
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6
ROE 3.3 3.6 5.3 9.3 13.7 17.2 16.5 16.0
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 8.8 8.7 7.8 6.0 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.8
NNPA 5.0 3.9 3.4 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5
PCR 45.6 57.1 58.5 63.3 67.9 71.4 73.4 74.2
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 14.3 15.3 16.9 17.3 16.8 15.5 15.9 16.1
Total cap. adequacy 16.0 17.2 19.0 19.2 18.6 16.7 16.4 16.6

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Karur Vysya Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 14 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Kaynes Technology India

Price (Rs) 3,389
Execution superiority to drive performance
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KAYN.NS
• Kaynes Technology India is witnessing strong demand across all
Bloomberg code KAYNES IN
verticals, especially in Industrial, EV, Aerospace, Outer space, Strategic
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,596 Electronics and Railways.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.4 • There is strong traction in high-performance computing server
Issued shares (mn) 64 manufacturing where it has won a large order from CDAC.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • It has also received breakthrough contract from a smart meter
Absolute 27 15 137 company in the Industrial and EV vertical.
Relative 27 14 119 • It is expecting revenue growth of more than 60% in FY25 with an
Valuation Ratios improvement in operational EBITDA margin of more than 100 bps.

Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 • Gross margin is expected to improve beyond 15% in FY25 due to a more
balanced product portfolio. It is confident of achieving the goal of
EPS (Rs) 7.2 16.4 31.5
reaching a billion-dollar revenue by FY28.
+/- (%) 328.2 128.4 92.5
• Growth momentum will be likely sustained in the next three to five
PER (x) 460.5 201.6 104.7 years with positive outlook on the aerospace, defence, railways and
PBV (x) 94.2 20.0 7.7 exports segment.
• It continues to invest in new initiatives and execute projects in newer,
EV/Sales (x) 10.7 8.3 6.4
higher-potential segments. These strategic initiatives will help
EV/EBITDA (x) 206.7 112.0 70.8
strengthen the company’s competitive edge and achieve gains as an
Major Shareholders (%) integrated EMS company.
Promoters 58 • The company is in the final stages of obtaining government approvals
FPIs 14 for its new investments and expects the approval soon after the model
MFs 15 code of conduct is concluded.
BFSI’s 4
Public & Others 10

Relative Performance
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Jan-23

Jan-24
Nov-22

Nov-23
Mar-23

Jul-23

Mar-24
May-23

Sep-23

May-24

Kaynes Technology India

Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 3,642 3,682 4,206 7,063 11,261 18,046 37.7

EBITDA 350 413 409 937 1,683 2,542 48.6

PAT 97 94 97 417 952 1,833 79.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 33.7 34.4 32.0 30.7 30.7 26.3 –

EBITDA margin 9.6 11.2 9.7 13.3 14.9 14.1 –

PAT margin 2.7 2.5 2.3 5.9 8.5 10.2 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.8 (0.3) (0.5) –

EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.6 1.7 7.2 16.4 31.5 79.9

BV (Rs) 16.1 17.8 24.0 35.0 165.2 428.0 92.8

RoCE (%) 24.9 13.3 12.4 24.2 21.1 14.4 –

RoA (%) 17.8 9.4 8.7 16.2 15.8 12.2 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.8 9.5 8.0 24.3 16.4 10.6 –

Net profit margin 2.7 2.5 2.3 5.9 8.5 10.2 –

Asset turnover (x) 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.8 –

Leverage factor (x) 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.0 1.8 1.4 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data KEI Industries

Price (Rs) 4,100
Outlook remains intact supported by strong macros
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KEIN.BO
• Demand from both government as well as private capex remains
Bloomberg code KEII IN
good with domestic distribution and exports business witnessing
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4,434 health pick-up.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 12.0 • Market size of cables & wires (C&W) industry in India is estimated at
Issued shares (mn) 90 Rs 750 bn and is expected to increase by 15% annually going ahead.
Target price (Rs) 4,331 Currently, it is growing at 12-13% versus 10-11% earlier with bigger players
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M getting more share of revenue due to large bandwidth and capital

Absolute 3 28 105 allocation.

Relative 3 27 87 • Solar energy, metro, highways, railways, power, along with construction
segment are potential future growth drivers. There is also upswing in
Valuation Ratios
capex in overall Power sector towards enhancing capacity of thermal
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
power generation.
EPS (Rs) 64.9 82.4 102.7 • KEI Industries aims to grow topline by ~17% in FY25 backed by capacity
+/- (%) 22 27 25 expansion. The growth will mainly be led by cables than wires. Aims
to achieve margins of ~11% in FY25E and reach 11.5-12% by FY27/28.
PER (x) 63.0 49.6 39.8
Additional revenue of Rs 5 bn will be from Housing wires and Rs 13 bn
PBV (x) 11.6 9.3 7.4
from LT cables.
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 • Cables & Wires constitute 3.5-4% in an infrastructure capex but in
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 3.7 3.1 Power T&D and generation, it is 15-20% of the project cost. 30-35% of
the company’s cables is supplied to Power sector and remaining to
EV/EBITDA (x) 43.1 33.6 27.1
industrial and real estate.
Major Shareholders (%)
• To achieve its desired growth and profitability, it has planned capital
Promoters 37
expansion for its LT, HT and EHV cables to the tune of ~Rs 9-10 bn. Will
FPIs 31
spend Rs 8-9 bn in FY25 and Rs 5-6 bn in FY26.
MFs 13
• Apart from capex, the company also has healthy enquiry pipeline from
BFSI’s 3
international markets for its cables due to low capacity in western
Public & Others 16
markets owing to high input costs in terms of power & manpower. Low
Relative Performance capacity, high demand and China +1 approach puts India and KEI in a
5,000 sweet spot especially during the era of transition to renewable energy.
4,000
• Export is increasing, especially to USA as the country has started
3,000
spending on power infrastructure which will continue for the next
2,000
1,000 several years. India is in a sweet spot as it is preferred over China due
0 to political reasons.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Exports is expected to be 15% of total revenue in FY25, while retail is

increasing by 20% YoY and is expected to contribute 49-50% to total
KEI Industries revenue by FY25E.
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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• On B2C side, while the demand for wires is softer than cables (B2B), the company remains on track to
achieve its 50% contribution target by FY25E. It continues to deploy more manpower in Southern and
eastern regions and targets ~20% growth in sales from dealer/distribution business.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 42,270 48,843 41,815 57,270 69,082 81,041 97,471 115,562 13.1 19.4

EBITDA 4,422 4,962 4,605 5,891 7,021 8,375 10,684 13,146 12.2 25.3

PAT 1,819 2,552 2,733 3,766 4,774 5,811 7,380 9,194 27.3 25.8

Margin (%)

Gross margin 30.6 30.8 30.4 26.4 25.1 25.0 26.0 27.0 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 10.2 11.0 10.3 10.2 10.3 11.0 11.4 – –

PAT margin 4.3 5.2 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.4 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 23.4 31.5 30.5 42.1 53.3 64.9 82.4 102.7 22.9 25.8

BV (Rs) 100.1 168.3 198.5 238.5 289.1 351.6 441.6 553.8 30.4 25.5

RoCE (%) 30.3 28.4 21.1 23.6 25.4 26.8 27.3 27.2 – –

RoA (%) 16.7 15.1 13.5 16.8 18.5 19.6 19.9 20.2 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 26.3 22.3 16.6 19.3 20.2 20.3 20.8 20.6 – –

Net profit margin 4.3 5.2 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/KEI Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update - 03 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data KFin Technologies

Price (Rs) 696
Diversifying from domestic MF
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KFIN.BO
• KFin Technologies’s (KFIN) average yield on domestic MF is 3.8 bps due
Bloomberg code KFINTECH IN
to the strong tail of small and medium clients, as well as higher share
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,428 of equity assets in the mix.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.9 • KFIN endeavours to increase its market share. This will be driven by
Issued shares (mn) 171 the higher share amongst the new AMC, leading to Equity AUM mix
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M increasing in the next three years, aiding the blended yields.
Absolute (7) 2 107 • In MF business, management aims to increase share of VAS from
Relative (7) 1 89 current 6% (out of total 70% revenue contribution by the segment) to
15%.
Valuation Ratios
• Issuer Solution business is expected to contribute 15% share of the total
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
revenue.
EPS 9.4 11.7 14.4
• Fund accounting business is growing at a strong rate with Hexagram
P/E 73.1 59.2 48.0 being a key lever.
BVPS 379.0 511.9 671.2 • Management is targeting global markets (like Singapore, Thailand,
P/B 1.8 1.3 1.0 Dubai, US), where the yield is significantly higher compared to the
domestic market (e.g. 6-25 bps in Europe/US).
Major Shareholders (%)
• In the US, KFIN plans to acquire a mid-sized administrator with local
Promoters 39
market expertise in order to expand. Global business will also see
FPIs 17
expansion in margin profile as cost arbitrage plays out.
MFs 7
BFSI’s 14 • KFIN currently has a tech team of around 1,000 people.
Public & Others 23

Relative Performance
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Nov-23
Mar-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Feb-24

May-24
Dec-22

Kfin Technologies
Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

Revenue from operations 1,624 4,499 4,811 6,395 7,200 8,375 17

Other Income 23 54 51 61 175 247 46

Total Income 1,648 4,553 4,861 6,455 7,375 8,622 17

Employee benefits 652 1,940 1,886 2,325 2,894 3,197 13

Other Expenses 315 973 801 1,192 1,326 1,513 12

Total Expenses 1,509 4,368 4,187 4,416 4,793 5,324 5

Operating profit 657 1,586 2,123 2,878 2,980 3,666 23.3

PAT 90 45 -646 1,485 1,957 2,460 172

Shareholder’s funds 5,193 4,096 3,464 6,443 8,702 11,410 29

Business Segmental Mix (%)

Domestic MF Investor Solutions - 62.3 66.0 70.6 69.1 70.0 -

Issuer Solutions - 11.3 12.9 11.7 15.7 15.2 -

International & Other Investor Solutions - 7.0 8.0 7.5 9.1 10.6 -

Global Business Services (Data Processing) - 8.0 8.7 6.6 6.1 4.2 -

Other Operating Revenue - 11.3 4.4 3.6 - - -

Ratio (x)

EPS (Rs) 1.5 0.3 (4.3) 9.4 11.7 14.4 168

P/E 516.7 2,696.3 (176.1) 73.1 59.2 48.0 `-

BVPS (Rs) 305.5 240.9 203.8 379.0 511.9 671.2 29

P/B 2.5 3.1 3.7 1.8 1.3 1.0 -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/KFin Technologies- 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 03 May
24.pdf

221
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Kirloskar Pneumatic Company

Price (Rs) 1,225
Targeting Rs 20 bn sales
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KIRP.BO
• The company has been delivering good performance; however, off-
Bloomberg code KKPC IN
take of CNG packages remains weak due to low addition of CNG
Market cap. (US$ mn) 951 stations.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.8 • Execution challenges in terms of site readiness and clearances for
Issued shares (mn) 65 dispatches of packages also remain weak.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • While the company had guided to reach Rs 20 bn revenue by FY25,
Absolute 17 74 117 it will likely see some slippage of ~six months. It will get nearer to the
Relative 17 74 99 target and on TTM basis, it plans to achieve Rs 20 bn revenue by 1HFY26.

Valuation Ratios • The company’s current focus is primarily on growth than on margins
and expects to maintain between 18-20% before further expanding
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
thereon.
EPS (Rs) 13.2 16.8 22.0
• The company is well placed to capture long-term growth versus its
+/- (%) 32.6 27.9 30.5 peers due to:
PER (x) 93.2 72.9 55.9 o Primary focus on domestic market which is on a cusp of high
PBV (x) 12.0 10.0 8.6 growth.
o Pick-up in pace of green energy transition benefitting Kirloskar
EV/Sales (x) 7.6 6.3 5.8
Pneumatic Company (KPCL) in terms of compressors for Biogas,
EV/EBITDA (x) 55.7 46.9 37.9
natural gas, hydrogen, etc.
Major Shareholders (%) o Ability to design and manufacture its own products.
Promoters 39 o Localised supply chain reducing dependence on imports and
FPIs 2
cross border supply chain mitigating geopolitical risks.
MFs 30
• In its Air compressors business, it is witnessing intense competition as
BFSI’s 2
players opt for market share gains.
Public & Others 27
• Its Refrigeration compressor business is witnessing strong demand
Relative Performance
supported by growth in consumption and investment in food
1,300
processing, storage, and distribution.
1,100
• In its Process gas compressors business, supply of CNG packets
900
700
continues to be a challenge, but sale of Calana Booster compressor
500 has picked up. CNG packets will pick-up in the next 6-12 months.
300 • As per the Petroleum industry, there are 12,000 new CNG stations and
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

5,000 new Biogas stations in pipeline in the next five years. Hence, the
pipeline is huge for CNG packets. However, the company believes the
Kirloskar Pneumatic Co CNG stations target of 12,000 will exceed five years and shall take seven
Sensex (rebased)
years to complete.

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

222
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• KPCL continues to participate in developing the Biogas business with supplying standardised compressor
packages to biogas plant. The government aims to blend 1% Biogas in natural gas by FY25 and 5% in the
long run.
• KPCL is the only company ready with technology and capability to manufacture all types of Biogas
compressors which is feedstock agnostic.
• To address the emerging opportunities in green hydrogen, the company has entered into an agreement
with PDC Machines LLC, USA, to offer Diaphragm compressor packages for various industries and
applications. KPCL’s scope is to provide packages for Hydrogen compressors for various applications in
India.
• As hydrogen requires very high compression system, for its storage and transportation, the development
of green hydrogen industry will lead to increase in demand for compressors.
• Revenue contribution from new products launched stands at 6-7% and the company aims to scale it up
to 15-20% gradually in the next three-four years. It will continue to develop and launch new products that
have TAM of Rs 1-5 bn.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 7,102 8,211 8,233 10,212 12,393 13,226 13.2

EBITDA 877 872 1,130 1,391 1,657 2,024 18.2
PAT 553 535 638 849 1,086 1,417 20.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 47.4 45.9 45.3 45.1 43.7 46.2 –

EBITDA margin (%) 12.4 10.6 13.7 13.6 13.4 15.3 –
PAT margin 7.8 6.5 7.8 8.3 8.8 10.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) –

EPS (Rs) 8.6 8.3 9.9 13.2 16.8 22.0 20.6
BV (Rs) 76.9 77.0 91.6 102.2 123.4 143.5 13.3
RoCE (%) 16.6 14.2 14.7 17.8 19.3 21.1 –
RoA (%) 10.8 9.6 10.1 11.9 13.3 14.8 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 11.6 10.8 11.8 13.6 14.9 16.5 –

Net profit margin 7.8 6.5 7.8 8.3 8.8 10.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Kirloskar Pneumatic Company - 4QFY24 Result - Flash
Note - 26 Apr 24.pdf

223
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data KNR Constructions

Price (Rs) 318
Order booking awaited
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KNRL.BO
• KNR Constructions (KNRC) is facing increased competition due to the
Bloomberg code KNRC IN
government reducing the size of the projects into small packages.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,072
• Given the aggressive competition, it is looking at projects from
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.2 different segments like irrigation projects from states other than
Issued shares (mn) 281 Telangana, railways, mining development, tunneling, energy, solar
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M and metro.
Absolute 20 19 29 • On diversification of the order book, KNRC signed MOU with NCC
Relative 20 18 10 for participating in metro projects and with Patel Infra for railway
tunneling projects.
Valuation Ratios
• The company expects that NHAI/MoRTH will come up with more BOT-
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
Toll projects and not HAM projects going ahead. It will partner will
EPS (Rs) 13.6 17.7 17.6
other parties and take up a minority share of 20-25% and balance
+/- (%) 56.4 30.7 (1.0) will be held by Cube.

PER (x) 21.7 16.6 16.8 • On its HAM portfolio, it has a total equity requirement of Rs 10 bn,
of which it already invested Rs 4.8 bn as of March 2024 and of the
PBV (x) 4.0 3.3 2.8
balance equity requirement of Rs 5 bn, Rs 3.5/0.9/0.7 will be invested
Div.ss/Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3
in FY25/26/27.
EV/Sales (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 • It expects the irrigation receivables to be recovered completely by
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 12.1 12.4 FY25-end.

Major Shareholders (%) • Given weak order inflows for FY24 and order backlog as at March
2025, the company for a flat revenue in FY25 with an EBITDA margin
Promoters 51
of 15-16%, 100 bps lower due to increased competition. We believe the
FPIs 7
MFs 30
company needs to diversify its business across business segments
BFSI’s 1 and geographies to maintain growth.
Public & Others 11 • Further, it guided for an order inflow of Rs 50-60 bn in FY25 with Rs 20-
30 bn by 2QFY25 itself.
Relative Performance
400

350

300

250

200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

KNR Construction
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

224
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 21,373 22,442 27,026 32,726 37,438 40,910 13.9

EBITDA 4,270 4,871 5,358 6,777 7,217 7,010 10.4

PAT 2,658 2,359 2,442 3,818 4,988 4,938 13.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 69.9 66.4 65.7 63.9 60.1 59.4 –

EBITDA margin 20.0 21.7 19.8 20.7 19.3 17.1 –

PAT margin 12.4 10.5 9.0 11.7 13.3 12.1 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.1 (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) –

EPS (Rs) 9.5 8.4 8.7 13.6 17.7 17.6 13.2

BV (Rs) 50.3 57.7 66.4 79.7 97.2 114.7 17.9

RoCE (%) 21.1 20.0 23.6 28.1 24.1 23.9 –

RoA (%) 15.2 14.1 15.6 18.7 17.3 18.1 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.7 15.5 14.0 18.6 20.0 16.6 –

Net profit margin 12.4 10.5 9.0 11.7 13.3 12.1 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 –

225
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Kotak Mahindra Bank

Price (Rs) 1,680
Strategic IT investments and robust growth plans at Kotak Bank
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KTKM.BO
We met Mr Devang Gheewalla, CFO, Kotak Mahindra Bank at our Trinity
Bloomberg code KMB IN
Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
Market cap. (US$ mn) 40,038
IT related expenses/ Investment:
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 136.9
• Currently, 10% of the opex is on IT, the bank would continue doing this.
Issued shares (mn) 1,988
• There has been significant addition in the customers and transaction
Target price (Rs) 1,828
volume over the period. All these issues have come due to such growth
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M in customers and business. The RBI is essentially saying to enhance
Absolute 3 (1) (17) the IT infrastructure and then restart customer on-boarding.
Relative 3 (1) (35) • The legal order to the bank is not that harsh as the RBI’s press release.
Valuation Ratios • The bank has appointed a consultant for the same and to find the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E scope of work.

Adj. EPS (Rs) 69.3 71.2 85.9 • IT spends: Rs 4.5 bn has various components; 811 1st year cost,
additional IT spends (recruiting consultant), it has 2 components i)
BVPS (Rs) 486.1 557.3 643.2
preponement of the IT-related expenses and ii) additional cost.
Adj. Book 481.3 550.2 635.0
• The digital issue could be resolved in 12 months’ time.
NAV/share (Rs)
Credit card business
PER (x) 24.4 23.8 19.7
• The CC transactions do not impact the bank’s CBS; It doesn’t load the
Price/Book (x) 3.5 3.0 2.6
system. Only when the final payment is done it impacts SA balances
Price/Adj. book (x) 3.5 3.1 2.7 and therefore the CBS system.
Div. Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 • CC issue should get resolved within six months.

Major Shareholders (%) • The bank would not go for a quick fix solution and make the entire
system much more robust.
Promoters 26
FPIs 38 • The bank would not like to slowdown the growth anticipating such
MFs 13 concern again in the future.
BFSI’s 11 • The bank has been adding 25k customers per day.
Public & Others 13
MFI business expansion
Relative Performance • Mid-teen growth would continue including growth in MFI and
2,500 unsecured loans.
2,300
• There would not be any concern on any other product due to the
2,100
regulatory embargo.
1,900
1,700 Branch expansion:
1,500 • The bank used to add 150-175 branches every year in the past; the
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

bank would add 200 branches every year.

• Cost-asset ratio would remain stable at 360 bps.
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

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• The bank has 50 mn customer base. Loss of customer during the moratorium would impact in the next
year. The bank is trying to increase cross-sale with more products per customers.
Creation of contingent provision
• The bank is not of the view to make and accumulate contingent provision.
Attrition rate
• Attrition rate has come down in FY24 on a YoY basis.
• The bank has announced concessional housing loan scheme for the bank’s employees.
EBLR loan proportion
The repo rate cut would impact exactly in the adverse manner when the rate was risen.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 112,058 134,997 153,396 168,179 215,519 259,932 303,158 354,470 18.3 16.8
Operating Expense 75,148 88,509 85,841 107,530 137,870 166,789 195,551 227,211 17.3 16.7
Operating Profit 83,482 100,208 117,620 120,509 148,480 195,875 224,122 262,106 18.6 15.7
PAT 48,653 59,472 69,648 85,727 109,393 137,816 141,912 173,514 23.2 12.2
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 424,005 485,182 632,291 719,878 830,202 967,188 1,108,307 1,281,821 17.9 15.1
Advances 2,056,948 2,197,482 2,236,886 2,712,536 3,198,612 3,760,753 4,438,470 5,178,359 12.8 17.3
Deposits 2,258,804 2,628,205 2,801,000 3,116,841 3,630,961 4,489,538 5,219,256 6,118,357 14.7 16.7
Total Assets 3,121,721 3,602,517 3,834,886 4,294,284 4,898,625 6,003,571 6,907,341 8,048,502 14.0 15.8
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 25 31 35 43 55 69 71 87 22.3 12.2
BV 222 254 319 363 418 486 558 645 17.0 15.2
ABV 217 248 309 356 413 481 550 636 17.3 14.9
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3
ROE 12.2 13.1 12.5 12.7 14.1 15.3 13.7 14.5
Margins (%)
NIMs 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 2.1 2.3 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.9
NNPA 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
PCR 65.4 69.0 63.6 73.2 79.3 75.9 76.3 76.0
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 16.9 17.3 21.4 21.7 20.8 19.2 18.7 18.6
Total cap. adequacy 17.5 17.9 22.3 22.7 21.8 20.6 20.0 19.8

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Kotak Mahindra Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 06 May
24.pdf

227
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data KPR Mill

Price (Rs) 770
Brownfield expansion in the garmenting capacity to drive near-
BSE Sensex 73,961 term growth
Reuters code KPRM.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code KPR IN • The stable cotton supply and improving spreads has resulted in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,154 improvement in capacity utilisation of the spinning industry.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.9 • The margins of the spinning industry are likely to see improvement
Issued shares (mn) 342 going forward on the back of stable cotton supply, better cotton-
yarn spreads and improving demand from the downstream sectors.
Target price (Rs) 912
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• KPR Mill (KPR) is not witnessing any major changes in the buying
patterns of its customers. KPR’s major customers continue to place
Absolute (9) 0 34
orders with them twice a year i.e. for summers and winters.
Relative (9) (0) 16
• The demand situation in Europe is improving and KPR plans to go
Valuation Ratios ahead with its greenfield capacity expansion (yet to be announced)
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E once there is enough clarity on revival of demand in Europe.

EPS (Rs) 23.6 30.6 36.4 • KPR is currently undergoing a brownfield capacity expansion of 30
mn pieces per annum and is expected to be completed by 1HFY25.
+/- (%) (0.8) 29.8 19.0
In the near-term, the company is focusing on optimal capacity
PER (x) 32.7 27.4 23.1 utilisation of its existing capacities post which the company will go
PBV (x) 6.0 5.5 4.6 ahead with greenfield capacity expansion.
• Labour availability is improving gradually due to various training
Div./Yield (%) 0.6 0.7 0.9
programs initiated by the state government. It takes eight-nine months
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 4.3 3.8
of training for the workers to become skilled in garmenting.
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.0 18.8 15.8 • Among the major textiles companies in India, KPR has the highest labour
Major Shareholders (%) efficiency of ~70%, while for the rest of the textile companies across India
the labour efficiency is ~60%.
Promoters 74
FPIs 5 • KPR has been consistently achieving higher labour efficiency as
MFs 13 compared to other textile companies due to various labour welfare
BFSI’s 2 initiatives like higher education, vocational training and training in
Public & Others 7 life skills imparted to its workers.
• Bangladesh’s strength in apparels is due to the strong push by textile
Relative Performance
associations. Vietnam’s market share in apparels is increasing due
1,000
to strong inflow of investments from the China.
900
800 • In the near-term, KPR doesn’t plan to demerge its sugar business.
700
Key triggers
600
500 • Revival of demand from Europe resulting in increased order flows for
400
the Indian players.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Completion of inventory liquidation by major retailers.

KPR Mill
• FTA with UK and Europe would be a key trigger for Indian apparel and
Sensex (rebased) Home Textile players.

Archit Joshi Roshan Nair

Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com roshan.nair@bksec.com

228
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 33,840 33,526 35,302 48,225 61,859 60,597 68,020 74,621 12.4 11.0
EBITDA 6,117 6,220 8,296 12,187 12,744 12,367 15,552 18,211 15.1 21.3
PAT 3,349 3,767 5,153 8,419 8,141 8,054 10,456 12,440 19.2 24.3
Margin (%)

Gross margin 40.1 40.7 44.4 44.3 39.3 40.5 41.9 42.4 – –

EBITDA margin 18.1 18.6 23.5 25.3 20.6 20.4 22.9 24.4 – –

PAT margin 9.9 11.2 14.6 17.5 13.2 13.3 15.4 16.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 – –

EPS (Rs) 9.1 10.7 15.0 24.5 23.7 23.6 30.6 36.4 20.8 24.3
BV (Rs) 48.9 52.8 68.3 92.6 108.1 127.5 152.0 181.1 21.1 19.2
RoCE (%) 20.8 19.3 25.2 31.1 24.2 20.6 24.1 24.8 – –

RoA (%) 18.7 17.8 23.5 28.7 22.2 19.5 23.0 23.5 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 19.9 20.6 24.4 30.4 23.6 20.0 21.9 21.9 – –

Net profit margin 9.9 11.2 14.6 17.5 13.2 13.3 15.4 16.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/KPR Mill - 4QFY24 Result Update - 06 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Krsnaa Diagnostics

Price (Rs) 570
Enhanced focus on geographical expansion and tapping
BSE Sensex 73,961 underpenetrated markets, would drive future growth
Reuters code KRSN.BO possibilities
Bloomberg code KRSNAA IN Key highlights

Market cap. (US$ mn) 221 • Continues to focus on the PPP model while expanding from the B2B
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.9 model to the B2C model. The tender business remains a focus as they
participate in new tenders and set up more infrastructure to expand
Issued shares (mn) 32
into new territories.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• B2C model – Expanding into B2C model, exploring to set up in the
Absolute (1) (13) (3)
existing projects in Maharashtra, Punjab, Assam, Odisha, by investing
Relative (1) (13) (21)
in infrastructure. In certain places like Assam, Odisha, the company
Valuation Ratios rented new premises, to reduce dependency on government tenders.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 B2C will attract greater margins as there are infrastructure synergies

EPS (Rs) (107.0) (26.3) (8.9)

with B2B model.
• Investing Rs 1.5 bn in capex to expand into new territories, with
+/- (%) – – –
additional capex to be invested towards the Rajasthan tender. The
PER (5.5) (22.4) (64.1)
company aims to primarily fund this through internal accruals.
Price/Book 0.5 2.6 2.3 • Margins are expected to stabilise at 25%, with margins expanding by
Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.1 100-200 bps, from FY25/26.

EV/Sales 0.3 3.7 3.1 • As of May 2024, the company has a strong infrastructure base with
148 centres for radiology and 1,443 tele-reporting channels. While
EV/EBITDA (126.8) (75.1) 32.2
pathology has 2015 Lab and centres. Radiology and Pathology
Major Shareholders (%) revenue mix stands at 57:43, with highest contribution coming in
Promoters 27 from North and West India (combined 71%).
FPIs 3 • The company is working on understanding the white spaces and
MFs 11 enter underpenetrated markets by participating in new PPP tenders.
BFSI’s 4
Focus is on expanding and leveraging presence in underserved Tier
Public & Others 54
II and III cities, to cater to rising health demand.
Relative Performance • Tender business: The tender business is relatively safer with no
900 payment lags as it is backed by the government. Most of the projects
800
they participate in are NHM-backed, which relieves them from state
700
600 or regional government dependency. The company has created a
500 team of 20-25 individuals to manage the tender business. Tender
400
timelines are usually long, with 5-year contracts for pathology and
300
10-year contracts for radiology.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Apart from PPP and tenders, the company is also involved in private
Krsnaa Diagnostics tie-ups with medical colleges, hospitals, etc. Currently, the revenue
Sensex (rebased) mix between PPP and private tie-ups stands at 75:25.

Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 1,469 2,584 3,965 4,555 4,871 6,196 33.4

EBITDA 598 (1,142) 938 1,315 1,223 1,443 19.3
PAT 125 (1,120) 1,852 686 620 568 35.4
Margin (%)

Gross margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 77.2 –

EBITDA margin 40.7 (44.2) 23.7 28.9 25.1 23.3 –
PAT margin 8.5 (43.3) 46.7 15.1 12.7 9.2 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 3.9 n/a n/a 0.1 0.0 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 24.1 (216.8) 284.7 21.8 19.8 17.9 (5.8)
BV (Rs) 93.1 (410.6) (16.2) 218.0 235.3 255.0 22.3
RoCE (%) 9.3 0.0 59.9 13.9 11.3 8.7 –
RoA (%) – – – – – 9.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 26.0 0.0 (204.0) 10.0 8.7 7.0 –

Net profit margin 8.5 (43.3) 46.7 15.1 12.7 9.2 –
Asset turnover (x) – – – – – 1.1 –
Leverage factor (x) – n/a – – – 0.7 –

231
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

L&T MBDA Missile Systems

“Defence” – A decadal opportunity
Key highlights
• L&T MBDA Missile Systems (L&T India and MBDA, Europe JV) is the largest
private sector defence company and is even larger than 13 DPSUs. Till
date L&T has invested a net of Rs 60 bn in the venture.
• The company has over 350 equipments and systems. Of these, only six
equipments have some linkages with imported parts. It has 98% of its
business being designed, developed, and manufactured indigenously
in India.
• The defence order backlog as of March 2024 stands at Rs 270 bn. The
company is targeting 10% of revenue contribution from defence in the
next three years from the current 4-5%.
• The company is into manufacturing warships, submarines, battle
tanks, weapon systems, aerospace, electronics, precision products,
etc. It is the largest provider of artillery, air defense and land-based
engineering equipment in the country.
• The MoD via DAC has been allocated Rs 6.2 trn (+4.7% YoY). Of these, 83-
85% i.e., Rs 5.4 trn will be bought from the Indian companies. This gives
a great opportunity for the company for the next three to five years.
• The company is expecting the total allocation to be announced in
the Final budget for FY25 on 01 July 2024, to be more than the one
announced in the interim budget.
• In the private space it faces competition from Tatas, Bharat Forge and
Mahindra. Only a handful of companies like data patterns and Astra
Microwave are capable of doing complete designing for defence
products.
• On the ESG front, the company stated that it does not deal in War head
or explosives.

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

232
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Landmark Cars

Price (Rs) 660
Plan to add 25 new stores in FY25, new stores to contribute 20%
BSE Sensex 73,961 to pro-forma revenues
Reuters code LANM.NS Key highlights
Bloomberg code LANDMARK IN Challenges with Jeep brand
Market cap. (US$ mn) 327 • Jeep brand has lately struggled. Two-three years back it was the
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.5 second most profitable brand for the company.
Issued shares (mn) 41 • LC is cutting down on its Jeep infrastructure. Lately, it converted its
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Jeep’s showroom in Worli to a workshop for Jeep and BYD.
Absolute (17) (8) (6) Agreement with Mercedez India to be renewed:
Relative (17) (9) (24) • Mercedez wants fewer and larger dealers to deal with. This will allow
Valuation Ratios bigger players like Landmarks to grow faster. There is no cap in terms
of wallet share with Mercedez. Current wallet share of LC is at 17%. Store
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
sizes are expected to be cut down. The cost savings led by it will be
EPS (Rs) 18.3 21.2 13.9
share between the brand and LC.
+/- (%) 439.0 15.7 (34.5) Reasons for failure of Renault
PER (x) 36.1 31.2 47.6 • Renault was primarily in sub-4-meter cars in India. However, Indian
PBV (x) 9.8 5.6 5.1 consumers started moving towards premium and luxury cars.
The brand has been under pain point for last 1.5 years. It has been
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.8 0.9
underwriting LCs losses as it does not want LC to go away. New Duster
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.1 11.7 14.1 mode is expected to be launched by 2026. It will help give some
Major Shareholders (%) respite to the brand.
Promoters 52 BYD has best-in-class EV offerings
FPIs 9 • Homologation rules allow only 2,500 imports per year per brand.
MFs 8 Brands like Porsche and Lamborghini are ok with this rule as they
BFSI’s 8
anyways don’t sell more than 2,500 units per year.
Public & Others 24
• BYD has recently announced that the Ato III has received its
Relative Performance homologation certificate. This takes away the 2,500-unit import cap
900 allowing for market expansion.
800 Other brands to provide the impetus to growth
700
• MG Motors has done tie-up with JSW group for EVs. Initial plan is to
600
sell 50k vehicles per year and to scale it up to 1 mn. New car will be
500
400 launched every 4 months for the next three years. LC will have 5% of
wallet share of MG in FY25.
Nov-23
Mar-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Feb-24

May-24
Dec-22

• Honda, Kia are the other brands to help LC grow in the next two-three
Landmark Cars years. As per the management, for most of the brands, LC is the face
Sensex (rebased)
in the town.

Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain

Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

233
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Inorganic opportunities remain strong

• Currently, there are 5,000+ passenger car dealers in India. Some of the owners of this dealership want
to exit this business altogether due to – healthy issue, financial issue, lack of interest in the business or
succession issue.
• There are not many exit opportunities for them. Landmark on account of its pan-India reach gives them
an opportunity to acquire some of these car dealerships.
Snowball effect comes in play once LC has an outlet in a new city
• For a new brand there is no critical mass to begin with. As the brand scales up, after-sales service volumes
pick up meaningfully. If a new brand enters a new city, having an outlet is a must.
• If the brand starts performing well, then the workshop will get automatic flow. RoCE of after sales service
is 32-35%. Older workshops make far higher RoCEs.

Outlook
• Landmark plans to open 25 new outlets in FY25 with total capital outlay of Rs 2.25 bn – Rs 1.5 bn of inventory
and remaining Rs 0.75 bn of capex.
• 20% of pro-forma revenues to come from newly opened outlets.
• Management has guided to save at least 120 bps on employee cost and other expenses in FY25.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY21-24)
Financials

Sales 19,561 29,765 33,824 32,879 19

EBITDA 1,098 1,747 2,380 2,176 26
PAT 111 662 853 572 72
Margin (%)

Gross margin 15.8 15.6 17.8 19.5 –

EBITDA margin 5.6 5.9 7.0 6.6 –
PAT margin 0.6 2.2 2.5 1.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.6 –

EPS (Rs) 3.4 18.3 21.2 13.9 60
BVPS (Rs) 49.6 67.4 118.5 130.5 38
RoCE (%) 11.7 19.7 20.5 12.2 –
RoA (%) 6.7 11.9 13.9 9.0 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 7.1 31.2 23.4 11.4 –

Net Profit margin 0.7 2.3 2.6 1.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 –
Leverage factor (x) 4.9 4.6 3.3 2.8 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Landmark Cars - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 24 May
24.pdf

234
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Laurus Labs

Price (Rs) 419
CDMO/Non-ARV the key growth drivers
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code LAUL.BO
• The depth and breadth of engagement with innovators have
Bloomberg code LAURUS IN
increased, as there is no need to go to another CMO for large-scale
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,706 manufacturing. Laurus can offer enzyme screening, and in fact most
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 11.1 of the projects they are handling are very complex in nature, and
Issued shares (mn) 539 it has at least one or more continuous flow chemistry techniques
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M and also at least one or more biocatalysis in a 10-12 step complex
chemistry.
Absolute (7) 3 27
Relative (7) 3 8 • So, these are becoming an integral part because the big pharma’s
commitments towards ESG are also pushing them to adopt new
Valuation Ratios
technologies, cleaner and greener technologies, pushing them to go
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 to continuous flow as well as the biocatalytic approaches. So, Laurus
EPS (Rs) 15.5 14.7 3.0 is expected to benefit from these relationships going forward.

+/- (%) (15.5) (5.3) (79.7) • CDMO scale-up key going forward

PER (x) 28.1 29.7 146.3 o Currently, Laurus is validating two APIs, which will go into NDA soon.
o Investments made in the Animal Health plant will see segment
PBV (x) 7.0 5.8 5.6
revenues in FY25. The Crop Science plant will be commercial next
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.3 0.1
year, and many projects are moving from phase one, phase two
EV/Sales (x) 5.2 4.3 5.1 to phase three and commercial. Laurus expects to see significant

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.7 16.0 32.4 contributions coming from these initiatives.
• CGT initiative update
Major Shareholders (%)
o Laurus has successfully launched NexCAR19 (December 2023) and
Promoters 27
started construction of the second large GMP integrated CAR-T
FPIs 26
MFs 7
facility.
BFSI’s 5 o With collaboration on gene therapy with IIT Kanpur, the company
Public & Others 35 started GLP, GMP plant construction for the manufacture of viral
vectors and gene therapy products with target to operate phase
Relative Performance
one by the end of 3QFY25.
900
800 • Capex plans – Laurus guides for Rs 7 bn capex for FY25 having already
700
invested Rs 26 bn over FY23-24. US$ 100 mn CDMO investments
600
500 ongoing. R&D centre (small molecules and HP’s) to get commissioned
400
in June 2024. Crop Protection unit qualification by FY25 end 40% of the
300
200 capex across CDMO/API/DP yet to meaningfully scale-up US$ 40 mn
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

fermentation focused new capex planned for FY25; ground broken.

• CDMO initiatives
Laurus Labs
Sensex (rebased) o Demand for LL’s offerings in API development and clinical and large
commercial manufacturing held firm. FY24 strong momentum

Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

235
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

reported ex-PO +24% revenue growth.

o US$ 100 mn CDMO investments on track: Fully contracted AH facility operational in November 2023
– expect supplies in FY25+ (delayed by 6m due complex synthesis needs for validation), DP solution
discussion in advanced stage. R&D centre (small molecules & high potent) online by June 2024 to
support new business. Multi-year MSA signed with leading Crop protection Co (LSPL-U4 intermediate
facility qualification by end of FY25).
• ARV – Stabilising ARV sales ~Rs 25 bn in the medium-term (50% of sales)
o Easing channel stock driving price normalisation. Stable demand across TLD1 with global clients. 25-
30% share maintained in the GA-LMIC treatment market.
• API’s – Onco and non-Onco pipeline
o Strong volume in ARV + CMO delivery and Onco supporting growth. FY24 sales declined -2% as steady
ARV API and positive demand in Oncology (+27%), partially offset by negative other API (-22%).
• FDF segment update
o Strong +24% increase for FY24 and continued 4Q momentum; driven by ongoing traction in the ARV
business + stable price trend. Developed market revenue increased on higher volumes.
o Signed JV with KRKA to enhance generic portfolio and market presence. 40 ANDAs filed in the US, out
of which 32 are approved and 8 are pending approval.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 22,919 28,317 48,135 49,356 60,406 50,408 17.1

EBITDA 3,560 5,646 15,507 14,224 15,922 7,775 16.9
PAT 944 2,559 9,840 8,284 7,903 1,606 11.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 51.7 –

EBITDA margin 15.5 19.9 32.2 28.8 26.4 15.4 –

PAT margin 4.1 9.0 20.4 16.8 13.1 3.2 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 –

EPS (Rs) 1.8 4.8 18.3 15.5 14.8 3.0 11.1

BV (Rs) 29.2 33.0 48.4 62.4 75.0 76.3 21.2
RoCE (%) 8.0 13.6 37.8 24.6 21.8 6.1 –

RoA (%) – – – – – 3.8 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 6.2 15.3 45.1 28.0 21.6 3.9 –

Net profit margin 4.1 9.0 20.4 16.8 13.1 3.2 –

Asset turnover (x) – – – – – 1.2 –

Leverage factor (x) – – – – – 1.0 –

236
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Laxmi Organic Industries

Price (Rs) 240
Project ramp ups underway…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code LAXR.BO
• Laxmi Organics is the largest exporter of ethyl acetate from India with
Bloomberg code LXCHEM IN
focus on reliability in supply chain and competitiveness in pricing.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 794
• Management continues to focus on customer addition by offering
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.8 diversified product portfolio with 11 products in the pilot and capex
Issued shares (mn) 276 approval stage,
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The Dahej project is progressing well with commercialisation expected
Absolute (6) (5) (7) in the next 18-20 months post receiving clearances from relevant
Relative (7) (5) (25) authorities.

Valuation Ratios • Fluoro Intermediate project nestled in Lote has achieved revised
timelines and mechanical completion of majority of assets. First full
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
year of ramp-up expected in FY25.
EPS (Rs) 9.8 4.7 4.4
• Capex for new projects to support future growth along with ongoing
+/- (%) 102.6 (51.9) (7.0) debottlenecking exercises for volume increase.
PER (x) 24.6 51.1 54.9 • Contribution from specialty from new products in specialty continues
Price/Book (x) 4.9 4.5 3.7 to be north of 20%.
• Improved product mix in specialties BU will aid robust growth in FY25.
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 2.4 2.2
• Prices for ethanol and acetic acid during 4QFY24 were US$ 720-750/
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.4 25.8 22.2
MT and US$ 430-450/MT, respectively, expect the range to continue
Major Shareholders (%) into 1QFY25.
Promoters 70 • India continues to be a strong market for the company and expects
FPIs 1
the trend to continue into 1QFY25.
MFs 3
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 26

Relative Performance
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Laxmi Organic Industries

Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

237
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 15,685 15,341 17,684 30,843 27,966 28,650 12.8

EBITDA 1,533 1,135 2,213 3,825 2,566 2,839 13.1
PAT 724 701 1,271 2,574 1,246 1,205 10.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 30.1 28.5 33.6 31.1 33.7 32.8 –

EBITDA margin 9.8 7.4 9.9 10.8 6.6 6.2 –
PAT margin 4.6 3.1 7.2 8.3 4.5 4.2 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.4 0.4 (0.4) (0.0) 0.2 (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 14.5 15.6 4.8 9.8 4.7 4.4 (21.3)
BV (Rs) 3.6 19.0 39.2 48.9 53.2 65.2 78.5
RoCE (%) 18.7 11.7 29.1 25.2 11.2 9.3 –
RoA (%) 19.0 16.4 7.9 6.8 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.5 11.3 24.6 22.1 9.2 7.5 –

Net profit margin 4.6 3.2 7.2 8.3 4.5 4.2 –
Asset turnover (x) – – 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 –
Leverage factor (x) – – 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Life Insurance Corporation of India

Price (Rs) 1,013
Steady execution
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code LIFI.BO
• Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) is on track to achieve targets
Bloomberg code LICI IN
set two years back for FY25-27: a) With an aspiration to increase share
Market cap. (US$ mn) 76,771 of non-par to 15%, the corporation has already increased share to
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 56.0 18.32% of individual APE in FY24. Jeevan Utsav has been a successful
Issued shares (mn) 6,325 product with Rs 20 bn premium collected. b) LIC aspires to reach
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M industry-best VNB margin profile – has reached margin of 16.8% in
FY24 from 9.9% at the time of listing. c) Change in distribution mix with
Absolute 4 (1) 70
non-agency channels achieving 5% share in individual NBP – currently
Relative 3 (1) 52
at 3.6% for banca.
Valuation Ratios
• Last year, growth in the top-line in terms of total premium was flattish.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 LIC aims for around 40% market share in the individual segment
Price to VNB 72.0 59.7 57.3 and around 70% in the group segment, taking the total market share
aspiration at around 60%. Growth is coming across geographies,
Price to EV 1.0 0.9 0.8
although competition is higher in Tier-1 locations.
Price to Earnings 132.9 15.2 13.4
• LIC’s focus also remains on protection sales through agency channel.
Price to 47.9 11.8 6.6 Price hike in protection impacted sales last year. However, traction is
Book Value
visible in that LOB currently. Riders are selling well given their smaller
Major Shareholders (%) ticket size. Digital sales forms major chunk of Tech-term product.
Promoters 97 • The corporation is focusing on two major projects – (a) improving
MFs 1
digital experience of customers and (b) agency transformation. LIC’s
Public & Others 2
digital journey includes the Ananda app which allows paperless, agent-
Relative Performance driven underwriting with online KYC and OTP-based confirmation. The
1,300 app has seen traction in non-urban geographies.
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
Oct-22
Jan-23
Aug-22

Jul-23
May-22

Sep-23

Mar-24
May-24
Apr-23

Dec-23

LIC of India
Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

239
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs bn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY21-24)

Financials

Net premium income 3,400 3,825 4,054 4,295 4,760 4,768 5.6

Income from Investments 2,250 2,428 2,855 2,941 3,075 3,654 8.6

Contrib. Shareholders' account & other Income 0 0.1 0 83.3 1301.1 449.1 NM

Total income 5,708 6,456 7,037 7,244 7,912 8,570 6.8

Surplus from Revenue account 8 (32) 46 182 416 391 128.1

PAT 26 27 30 41 360 409 139.6

Shareholder's funds 9 11 70 115 463 829 104.4

Key Parameters

APE – – 422 504 567 570 10.5

VNB – – 42 76 92 96 31.9

VNB Margin (%) – – 9.9 15.1 16.2 16.8 –

EV – – 956 5,415 5,822 7,273 96.7

Product Mix on APE basis (%)

Individual participating – – 69.1 65.6 62.1 55.1 –

Individual non-participating – – 5.7 5 6.1 12.4 –

Group – – 25.2 29.4 31.8 32.5 –

Valuations (x)

Price to VNB – – 131.6 72.0 59.7 57.3 –

Price to EV – – 5.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 –

Price to Earnings – – 184.4 132.9 15.2 13.4 –

Price to Book Value – – 78.5 47.9 11.8 6.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Lumax Industries

Price (Rs) 2,569
Capacity expansion to meet future demands
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code LUMA.BO
• Lumax Industries is setting up a new facility in Sanand of about Rs 500-
Bloomberg code LUMX IN
700 mn to cater to new orders from the OEM customers for advanced
Market cap. (US$ mn) 288 lighting solutions which is expected to be commissioned in 1QFY25.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.3 The capex is expected to be set up in the Debt:Equity ratio of 80:20.
Issued shares (mn) 9 With the opening of this new facility, contribution is expected from
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M FY26 onwards. This plant is expected to outperform the industry with
better margins and improvement in operating efficiency.
Absolute 1 11 35
Relative 1 11 17 • Currently, Chakan Phase-I is running at 50-60% capacity and
is expected to reach a utilisation capacity of 90% in FY25, where
Valuation Ratios
revenue generated in 4QFY24 from this facility is Rs 850 mn.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 Additionally, the company is expanding the Phase-II at Chakan and is
EPS (Rs) 61.9 116.1 118.8 expected to commission in 4QFY25.

+/- (%) 218.8 87.5 2.3 • Lumax Industries will also be catering to Volkswagen and Skoda in
the future. They are doing well with backward integration of the LED
PER (x) 41.5 22.1 21.6
penetration, and with the percentage of LED going up every year, the
PBV (x) 4.9 4.1 3.6 margin is expected to expand.
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 1.0 1.2 • Revenue guidance for FY25 is expected to be in the range of 20-
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.2 1.2 25% backed by commencement of new plant, additions of clients
and supplies to new model launches. In the tooling segment, Lumax
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.6 13.6 13.4
expects the revenue to grow by 2x.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Despite FIEM entering the four-wheeler segment, Lumax has
Promoters 75 competitive edge and strong relationship with the OEMs catering for
FPIs 1
the head and tail lamps. Localisation of the electronic facility levers is
MFs 1
expected, which would have a positive impact on the margins.
Public & Others 22
• The largest share of revenue for FY24 is 27% from MSIL, with M&M
Relative Performance being the second largest contributor of 18% to the overall sales. The
3,300 share of revenue from MSIL is expected to improve led by increasing
2,800 share of SUV in the MSIL portfolio along with decent launch pipeline
2,300 with capacity expansion. Additionally, MSIL is expected to be the next
1,800
growth engine upon commissioning of the MSIL’s Kharkhoda plant.
1,300
With major OEMs increasing capacity like Tata Motors and M&M,
800
and Lumax dedicating facility for these two clients, the order book is
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

expected to strengthen in the coming years.

Lumax Industries
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 18,515 16,016 14,260 17,513 23,195 26,366 7.3

EBITDA 1,532 1,578 993 1,350 2,075 2,304 8.5
PAT 676 719 182 579 1,085 1,110 10.4
Margin (%)

Gross margin 34.5 38.6 36.7 35.7 34.8 34.9 –

EBITDA margin 8.3 9.8 7.0 7.7 8.9 8.7 –
PAT margin 3.7 4.5 1.3 3.3 4.7 4.2 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 –

EPS (Rs) 72.3 76.9 19.4 61.9 116.1 118.8 10.4
BV (Rs) 465.2 477.6 492.6 526.1 624.3 718.4 9.1
RoCE (%) 18.8 14.2 7.1 9.2 13.6 11.2 –
RoA (%) 8.7 8.2 4.5 5.8 8.3 6.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.0 16.3 4.0 12.2 20.2 17.7 –

Net profit margin 3.7 4.5 1.3 3.3 4.7 4.2 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Macrotech Developers

Price (Rs) 1,378
Gaining strong traction in core as well as new markets...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code LODV.BO
• Macrotech Developers (MDL) has guided for Rs 175 bn pre-sales in
Bloomberg code LODHA IN
FY25E (implies 20% YoY growth). Overall, it targets to achieve 20% CAGR
Market cap. (US$ mn) 16,428 growth to ~Rs 210 bn by FY26E.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 18.1 • As per the current visibility, MDL has strong launch pipeline of Rs 121 bn
Issued shares (mn) 995 in FY25 (new projects + phases). This could likely increase with further
Target price (Rs) 1,362 project additions during the year (demonstrated the same in FY24
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M with total launches worth Rs 182 bn versus initial guidance of Rs 130 bn).

Absolute 11 18 153 • It has guided for adding projects with GDV worth Rs 210 bn in FY25 (Rs
Relative 11 18 134 203 bn BD in FY24), which is encouraging and would build-up strong
inventory pipeline.
Valuation Ratios
• Average price growth of 5.5% for FY24 for the company, which keeps
Yr to 31 Mar FY24P FY25E FY26E
affordability has been intact
EPS (Rs) 15.6 20.4 28.9
• One-third of pre-sales came from JDA projects in FY24. Despite this,
+/- (%) 218.3 31.3 41.2 embedded margin was at 31% for the year, which implies that the
PER (x) 88.3 67.2 47.6 underlying margins have grown. It expects to witness a modest growth
in margins in the coming year.
PBV (x) 7.8 7.0 6.1
• There is no speculative behaviour among homebuyers in the
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4
company’s core/presence markets.
EV/Sales (x) 13.5 11.5 9.4 • New players have entered the Mumbai market who can drive the
EV/EBITDA (x) 52.2 43.1 31.9 market in terms of taking over the projects from Tier 2/3 developers
that have been stressed.
Major Shareholders (%)
• 40 different projects contributing for sales, which keeps away any
Promoters 72
FPIs 24
dependency on any specific projects.
BFSI’s 3 • Industrial land prices are growing strongly in Palava and the company
Public & Others 1 is in advanced stages of a transaction which will have value of Rs 100+
mn/acre
Relative Performance
1,600 • Jupiter hospital is building a large facility in Palava which will further
1,400 improve the infra of the micro-market.
1,200
1,000 • It clocked Rs 22 bn pre-sales in FY24 from township projects and further
800
600 aims for 30% growth in FY25.
400
200 • Premium launches in townships (Palava and Upper Thane) are 8-10%
0
of pre-sales mix currently. The company is looking for price point of Rs
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

10,000/sq ft to be launched in 1QFY25 (currently Rs 6,000-7,000/sq ft).

Macrotech Developers
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

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New markets – Pune and Bengaluru

• Pune is a resilient residential market and branded players have started getting prominence only in the
last few years.
• The company has been able to sell premium apartments which are among the most expensive ones in
Pune.
• It is looking to add more projects in the city and aims to become among the top 5 in Pune in terms of pre-
sales.
• MDL aims to double pre-sales in the next two-three years in Pune. It has achieved 5% market share in the
city and targets 15% market share by the end of the decade.
• Bengaluru and Pune can likely contribute Rs 40 bn to pre-sales in FY25.
• The company has clocked 28% margin in Bengaluru projects which is slightly lower than the blend (@ 31%).
• It is in advanced stages of pilot phase in Bengaluru. In the next few months, it will assess and look for
further growth beyond the current two projects.
Balance sheet/Investments
• The capital raised in 4QFY24 will be largely used as growth capital.
• It would invest Rs 35-40 bn for new business development (BD) and incrementally equivalent amount
towards supporting existing projects.
• BD in the next year can be slightly tilted towards JDA.
• Rs 4-5 bn land sales is expected every year at Palava.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 119,070 124,426 54,486 92,332 94,704 103,161 120,961 147,114 (2.8) 19.4
EBITDA 31,670 19,073 13,720 21,247 20,662 26,757 32,337 43,340 (3.3) 27.3
PAT 16,361 7,211 401 12,024 4,867 15,491 20,336 28,722 (1.1) 36.2
Margin (%)
Gross margin 38.0 23.2 33.9 34.3 36.0 39.9 40.5 43.3 – –

EBITDA margin 26.6 15.3 25.2 23.0 21.8 25.9 26.7 29.5 – –

PAT margin 15.0 13.1 13.2 0.4 12.7 4.7 12.8 13.8 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 5.6 3.7 3.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 16.5 7.3 0.4 12.1 4.9 15.6 20.4 28.9 (1.1) 36.2
BV (Rs) 38.6 45.8 46.2 121.7 127.3 175.7 196.1 225.0 35.4 13.2
RoCE (%) 11.5 6.7 6.8 10.0 9.1 11.0 12.0 14.9 – –

RoA (%) 6.2 3.8 4.1 6.2 5.4 6.1 6.3 7.6 – –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 54.0 17.2 0.9 14.4 3.9 10.3 11.0 13.7 – –

Net profit margin 15.0 13.1 13.2 0.4 12.7 4.7 12.8 13.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 16.1 10.8 8.7 4.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Macrotech Developers - 4QFY24 Result Update - 25 Apr
24.pdf

244
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Mahendra Brothers Exports

Growing relevance of lab grown diamonds
Key highlights
About Mahendra Brothers Exports: Mahendra Brothers Exports Pvt.
Ltd. (MBEPL) is promoted by the members of the Parikh family was
established in 1970 and is a pioneering DTC sight holder in India. They
command over five decades of diamond expertise, that including
procuring, processing, and exporting rough and polished diamonds
ranging from 2 cents to 10 carats. Their global reach extends to key
markets like Hong Kong, USA, France and Italy, UAE, Thailand and Japan
focusing on better and value-added products at a scale. From their
operations from Navsari near Surat, MBEPL’s cutting-edge facilities
uphold their commitment to excellence in the diamond industry. Other
than this, family members also have significant interests in diamond
jewellery manufacturing both in India and overseas and are also
pioneers in the lab grown diamond field, having set up more than 600
reactors in the last five years.
Industry update
• ~10-12% of the overall jewellery market is contributed by studded
jewellery. Currently, only 12-15% of the whole market is organised.
• The business is dominated by bridal jewellery sales. India is an
investment driven market and hence buybacks are here to stay.
• However, export market enjoys better margins than domestic market.
LGD acceptance
• There are concerns about the investment value of Lab Grown
Diamonds (LGD). The acceptance of LGD in the US and Europe is
growing aggressively.
• However, the consumption is still lower in India and China. Structured
players are looking into LGD’s.
• Talking about the price trends, the prices of LGD’s are currently falling.
Akshay Tritiya 2024
• Akshay Tritiya witnessed 15-30% volume growth depending on store,
which demonstrates demand inelasticity despite the surge in gold
price.
Commentary on Kalyan Jewellers
• Kalyan Jewellers are doing well and their customer’s targeting
strategy is on point.
• They generally target wealthy gold consuming areas. The company
is expanding aggressively and entering into newer geographies.

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

245
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Commentary on Titan
• Tanishq has more of studded mix which generally delivers higher margins than gold business. The
company offers the best buyback offer in the industry.
• 80% of the CaratLane offerings are priced lower than Rs 40-50k which results in lots of impulse buying
activities. Hence, such price point products can be MRP-based.
Import duties
• Overall, growth in precious stones and diamonds is similar. However, there are varieties in precious
stones in terms of colour and size which makes it a complicated business.
Miscellaneous
• Overall, there could be 4-5 national chains and 15-20 regional chains in India. Regional players can
outcompete national players.
• Overall growth in precious stones and diamonds is similar. However, given the absence of standard
pricing pattern and variety in terms of colour and size makes precious stone a complicated business.

246
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Mahindra & Mahindra

Price (Rs) 2,506
Robust outlook in PV space; tractor recovery on cards
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MAHM.BO
Auto division
Bloomberg code MM IN
• New launches: Management has indicated on new model in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 37,354
automotive division which includes nine SUVs (includes three
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 73.5 refreshes) and seven BEVs by FY30E. Newly launched 3XO model has
Issued shares (mn) 1,244 received a strong response with 50k bookings received in the first hour,
Target price (Rs) 1,912 further intensifying competition in the compact SUV segment. Also,
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M the company is on the verge of new Mahindra 5-door Thar in August

Absolute 16 30 90 2024.

Relative 16 29 72 • Capacity ramp-up: Management has indicated on ramping up

capacity for its SUV volumes from 49k units in FY24 to 72k units in FY26E.
Valuation Ratios
Ramp-up in capacity from FY25 to FY26E will include EV capacity of 8k
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
units.
EPS (Rs) 89.6 98.7 112.0 • Capex: The company has envisaged a total capex of Rs 140 bn for its
+/- (%) 34.6 10.2 13.5 ICE business and Rs 120 bn for MEAL for FY25E.

PER (x) 28.8 26.1 23.0 Farm division

• Outlook: Tractor industry is expected to report a growth of 5% in FY25E
PBV (x) 5.9 4.9 4.2
on expectations of normal monsoon. However, 1QFY25 is expected to
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5
remain weak due to elections.
EV/Sales (x) 3.0 2.6 2.2 • Capex: The company has envisaged a total capex of Rs 50 bn for FY25E
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.9 20.2 17.1 for capacity and new product development.

Major Shareholders (%) • Market share: Market share for tractor division decreased by 130 bps
to 39.4% in 4QFY24 due to de-stocking of inventory. However, going
Promoters 18
FPIs 47
forward, the management has guided for market share to improve
MFs 12 driven by rapid expansion of distribution network and new product
BFSI’s 13 launches.
Public & Others 9 • Rotavators: The company achieved the second position in the
rotavator market with a market share of 20.3% for FY24. Management
Relative Performance
has guided for the farm implement business to turn profitable in the
3,000
2,500 next 18-24 months.
2,000 • Trem V regulations – Currently, set for implementation in CY26, the
1,500
company considers it is unlikely to be enforced as scheduled.
1,000
500
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Mahindra & Mahindra

Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

247
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 528,482 448,655 446,299 577,869 849,603 987,634 1,121,312 1,271,007 13.3 13.4

EBITDA 75,301 63,506 69,575 70,275 104,424 124,728 144,649 165,231 10.6 15.1

PAT 54,012 7,397 8,970 48,699 65,486 107,377 118,292 134,224 14.7 11.8

Margin (%)

Gross margin 31.9 33.4 32.4 26.3 24.0 24.6 24.4 24.5 - -

EBITDA margin 14.2 14.2 15.6 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.0 - -

PAT margin 10.3 7.9 9.1 8.8 9.4 10.9 10.5 10.6 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) - -

EPS (Rs) 45.5 29.8 34.1 42.4 66.6 89.6 98.7 112.0 14.5 11.8

BV (Rs) 293.7 290.3 292.5 319.2 361.9 438.1 522.9 621.0 8.3 19.1

RoCE (%) 18.9 13.6 13.3 13.9 19.6 24.1 24.4 24.4 - -

RoA (%) 13.7 10.4 10.2 10.3 13.8 16.8 17.5 17.7 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 16.6 10.2 11.7 13.9 19.6 22.4 20.5 19.6 - -

Net profit margin 10.3 7.9 9.1 8.8 9.4 10.9 10.5 10.6 - -

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 - -

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Mahindra & Mahindra - 4QFY24 Result Update - 17 May
24.pdf

248
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

Price (Rs) 268
Steady growth and lower credit cost to drive improved return
BSE Sensex 73,961 profile
Reuters code MMFS.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code MMFS IN Growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,963 • Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFSL) has done a thorough
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 13.9 due diligence across all the branches post the fraud reported last
Issued shares (mn) 1,236 quarter and the company has centralised certain processes.
Target price (Rs) 345 • Guidance of loan book growth of 18-20% for FY25. The company might
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M see disbursements improving on a MoM basis.
Absolute 2 (6) (6) • The company’s strategy remains to improve market share in the
Relative 2 (6) (24) vehicle financing segment. MMFSL has 30% market share in Mahindra
Auto, 28-30% market share in Mahindra Tractors and is the second
Valuation Ratios
largest financier for Maruti Suzuki India.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The company has no obligations to support the vehicle sales at
EPS (Rs) 14.3 21.2 23.7 Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and the underwriting process remains
BVPS (Rs) 147.1 161.3 178.0 the same irrespective of the OEM.

P/E (x) 18.7 12.6 11.2 • Share of the new business segment will edge higher to 8-9% of the
overall book.
P/BV (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5
Margins
Major Shareholders (%)
• Apart from new vehicles, pre-owned vehicles will also see strong
Promoters 52
growth in disbursements, and this should support the margin profile
FPIs 12
going forward.
MFs 15
BFSI’s 14 • Increased fee income from the insurance license should also aid net
Public & Others 7 revenues.
• The company has undertaken 30-50 bps yield hike in 2HFY24 to
Relative Performance
compensate for the sharp uptick in cost of funds during FY24.
400
350 • Since 90% of the loan book is fixed rate, the company should benefit
300
250 in case there is any decline in borrowings rate going forward.
200
150 Asset quality and Leverage
100
50 • Debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 5.1x during FY24 and is
0 expected to rise further as business achieves scale. The internal cap
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

for leverage is 6x.

• Going forward, management remains comfortable with the higher
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services
Sensex (rebased) gearing ratio as GNPA levels have improved sharply.
• Active tracking of 30+ overdue in 6 MOB bucket has helped in early
identification of delinquencies so that timely recovery processes
can be initiated.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)
Net Interest Income 48,652 54,164 57,836 57,986 64,794 71,355 87,454 102,706 7.4 20.0
Operating Expense 18,475 20,182 16,325 20,734 27,821 29,572 33,894 39,793 10.8 16.0
Operating Profit 30,177 33,982 41,511 37,252 36,973 41,783 53,560 62,913 5.2 22.7
PAT 15,571 9,064 3,290 9,888 19,843 17,596 26,155 29,299 6.2 29.0
Shareholder's Fund 109,080 113,639 147,115 156,281 170,889 181,575 199,089 219,747 11.9 10.0
AUM 631,216 680,890 646,080 649,610 827,700 1,025,970 1,210,818 1,409,774 7.0 17.2
Borrowings 528,469 594,623 585,767 558,139 749,459 922,252 1,097,480 1,280,372 9.1 17.8
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Rs) 13 7 3 8 16 14 21 24 6.2 29.0
BV (Rs) 88 92 119 127 139 147 161 178 11.9 10.0
Margins (%)
NIMs 7.8 7.6 8.5 8.9 8.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 – –
Return Profile (%)
ROA 2.6 1.3 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.0 – –
ROE 15.2 8.1 2.0 6.6 11.6 10.2 13.7 14.0 – –
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 6.9 8.4 9.0 7.7 4.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 – –
NNPA 4.9 6.1 4.1 3.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 – –
PCR 19.2 31.0 57.9 58.1 59.5 63.2 55.0 50.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 06 May 24.pdf

250
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Mahindra Logistics

Price (Rs) 432
Subdued industry demand affects performance….
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MALO.BO
• CV demand remained muted as Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG)
Bloomberg code MAHLOG IN
witnessed impact of ‘No Production Days’ and lower volumes from
Market cap. (US$ mn) 373 CV customers.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.0 • The Farm demand was sluggish with weakening lead indicators and
Issued shares (mn) 72 correction observed in 3Q and 4Q. But MAHLOG believes that it has
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M bottomed out and does not expect any other weaknesses other than
Absolute (8) 2 20 seasonal variations.

Relative (8) 2 2 • Furthermore, consumer segment, FMCG, pharma, etc., have seen
muted volumes and demand weakness through the last three to four
Valuation Ratios
quarters. However, the growing Indian economy increased consumer
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
spending power and enhanced access to reasonably priced high-
EPS (Rs.) 2.4 3.6 (8.1) quality goods, gives the company confidence in the future outlook of
Change (%) (46.4) 49.7 (322.8) the sector.

PER (x) 176.5 118.0 – • Management mentions that the overall size of the consumer
durables market by FY23 was estimated at Rs 1,303 bn and the market
PBV (x) 5.7 5.5 6.3
is expected to grow at around 13.5-14% CAGR until FY28.
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6
• On the margins front, the company targets 2.5% to 3% on the contract
EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 logistics business and network businesses to be around 3% to 4%.

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6 14.4 16.4 • The company expects to reach Rs 100.0 bn in revenue by FY26 through
following growth drivers:
Major Shareholders (%)
o The contract logistics business is expected to grow by 15-17% over
Promoters 58
the next three years to Rs 60.0-65.0 bn.
FPIs 6
MFs 13 o The company mentions that The B2B Express business is in a
BFSI’s 4 turnaround phase and the last mile delivery business is in a scale-
Public & Others 19 up phase and these three businesses (B2B, forwarding and last
mile delivery businesses) is expected to be scaled up to Rs 7.5-8.0
Relative Performance
bn.
700
600 o The Mobility business is expected to have a quarterly run rate of
500
400
Rs 3.5-3.6 bn.
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Mahindra Logistics
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Aryan Sharma

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com aryan.sharma@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 38,513 34,711 32,637 41,408 51,283 55,060 7.4

EBITDA 1,512 1,583 1,342 1,843 2,598 2,290 8.7
PAT 856 551 327 176 263 (586) NA
Margin (%)

Gross margin 12.4 15.5 15.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 –

EBITDA margin 3.9 4.6 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.2 –
PAT margin 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 (1.1) –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 1.1 1.3 –

EPS (Rs) 11.9 7.7 4.5 2.4 3.6 (8.1) NA
BV (Rs) 69.1 75.6 78.8 75.8 78.0 68.4 NA
RoCE (%) 49.9 15.1 8.0 6.3 7.2 2.8 –
RoA (%) 22.7 7.5 4.0 3.1 3.8 1.5 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 34.4 10.6 5.9 3.2 4.7 (11.1) –

Net profit margin 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 (1.1) –
Asset turnover (x) 6.4 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.8 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Marico

Price (Rs) 596
Focus on foods category growth and expanding GT reach…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MRCO.BO
Distribution network – to be GT focused
Bloomberg code MRCO IN
• The focus will be on General trade (GT) now. The company does not aim
Market cap. (US$ mn) 9,239
to change the share of e-commerce and Modern Trade (MT) of 30%.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 13.8
• Marico has also resorted to pack segregation. For e.g.: a 250ml pack
Issued shares (mn) 1,294 will be available in GT only, versus a 300ml in MT channel. This is to
Target price (Rs) 600 ensure inter-channel peace.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Further, Project SETU aims at increasing the direct presence from
Absolute 15 14 10 ~1 mn outlets presently to 1.5 mn outlets by FY27. This will lead to an
Relative 15 14 (9) additional cost which will result in Rs 800-1,000 mn over the next
three years.
Valuation Ratios
Foods versus Oil
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Saffola will see mid-single digit growth. Marico aims for the
EPS (Rs) 11.6 12.7 14.3
food segment to outgrow the oil segment because oil is more
+/- (%) 13.6 8.9 12.8 commoditised and has lower margins.
PER (x) 51.3 47.1 41.7 • The company is largely introducing value-added products in the
PBV (x) 20.1 15.4 14.6 food category. So as far as top 60k distributors are doing well, the
company is satisfied.
Div./Yield (%) 1.3 1.7 2.0
• Foods will grow by 20%.
EV/Sales (x) 7.9 7.0 6.3
Digital brands
EV/EBITDA (x) 37.6 33.9 29.9
• All the digital brands are doing well and are scaling up as per the
Major Shareholders (%) company’s expectations.
Promoters 59 • Plix is the best performer.
FPIs 26
• Going forward, the company is open to inorganic opportunities to fill
MFs 3
out the gaps in its portfolio.
BFSI’s 7
Public & Others 5 Inorganic opportunities
• Marico is not looking to expand in spices. According to them,
Relative Performance
this segment is more suitable for companies with procurement
800
700 capabilities like ITC.
600
500 • Also, since the market of spices is commoditised, the company has
400
300
lower interest.
200
100
Growing international business
0
• Bangladesh has stabilised now. Marico continues to aim for double-
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

digit constant currency growth. The contribution from Parachute will

gradually reduce. This geography enjoys a better cost structure than
Marico
India and operates at 30% margins.
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

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• Overall, the scale-up in MENA and South Africa is great. The company is expanding its portfolio, especially
hair care products, in Europe, which has great potential. Margins are lower due to high fixed costs. Since
there are no further incremental fixed costs, further scale-up will supplement margins.
Innovation
• The company has done small pilot of Parachute baby oil.
• As the proof of concept and success comes in, they will expand the brand.
Guidance
• The company aims to grow in double-digit.
• Volumes will grow gradually, and along with pricing growth in coconut oil, the aspiration will be
achievable.
• Amla will do better. Going forward, there will be more ATL spends than BTL.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 73,339 73,150 80,480 95,120 97,640 96,530 107,272 118,425 5.6 10.8
EBITDA 12,809 14,690 15,910 16,810 18,100 20,260 22,203 25,083 9.6 11.3
PAT 11,349 10,648 11,893 12,550 13,220 15,020 16,364 18,466 5.8 10.9
Margin (%)

Gross margin 45.2 48.8 46.9 42.9 45.2 50.8 50.7 51.0 – –

EBITDA margin 17.5 20.1 19.8 17.7 18.5 21.0 20.7 21.2 – –

PAT margin 15.5 14.6 14.8 13.2 13.5 15.6 15.3 15.6 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 8.8 8.2 9.2 9.7 10.2 11.6 12.7 14.3 – –

BV (Rs) 23.2 23.4 26.8 28.9 29.4 29.7 38.7 41.0 – –

RoCE (Rs) 40.8 42.8 41.5 39.0 38.5 38.8 36.9 37.4 – –

RoA (Rs) 29.2 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.3 28.0 27.7 28.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 41.0 35.4 36.7 34.9 35.1 39.4 37.1 35.9 – –

Net profit margin 15.5 14.6 14.8 13.2 13.5 15.6 15.3 15.6 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Marico - 4QFY24 Result Update - 06 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Mindspace Business Parks REIT

Price (Rs) 343
Leasing momentum picking up
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MINS.BO
• Mindspace Business Parks REIT (M-REIT) has received approval for
Bloomberg code MINDSPCE IN
floor-wise de-notification of 0.4 msf at its Airoli asset. Additionally, it
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,436 has applied for de-notification of 1.5 msf area, mainly in Airoli (balance
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.6 vacant SEZ area stands at 1.9 msf, as of March 2024).
Issued shares (mn) 593 • M-REIT incurred costs @ Rs 300 psf for the SEZ demarcation exercise
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M including all costs of approval and giveback of duties.
Absolute (3) 1 12 • It targets overall 88-90% portfolio occupancy in FY25E and 90%+ by
Relative (4) 1 (6) FY26E – backed by leasing demand from GCCs, increased workforce
attending office physically, SEZ de-notification benefits and possible
Valuation Ratios
decline in interest rates.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• It has an organic growth opportunity of 9.3 msf, which comprises 2.4
EPS (Rs) 7.2 4.8 8.9
msf leasable vacant area, 4.4 msf under construction projects and
+/- (%) 37.9 (33.1) 85.2 future development opportunities of 2.5 msf.

PER (x) 40.0 48.3 36.2 • Out of the development pipeline of 4.4 msf, leasable area of ~1.3 msf is
expected to become operational in FY25E. Major additions would be at
PBV (x) 1.3 1.4 1.4
Commerzone Kharadi (1.0 msf leasable area by 3QFY25E), 0.3 msf Airoli
Div./Yield (%) 2.8 5.3 5.5
West data centre (4QFY25E) and 0.13 msf Madhapur experience centre
EV/Sales (x) 14.1 11.3 11.2 (1QFY26E). Further, B1 (1.6 msf) in Madhapur, Hyderabad is expected

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.9 16.5 15.2 to be commissioned by 4QFY26E, whereas B8 (1.6 msf) is likely to be
completed in FY27E.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Two ROFO Assets - Commerzone Raidurg in Hyderabad is leased fully
Promoters 63
to Qualcomm and Square BKC 98 in Mumbai is leased to JP Morgan.
FPIs 20
MFs 1
• Expiries in FY25/26/27E are at comfortable levels at 2.0/0.9/1.5 msf,
BFSI’s 2 respectively, contributing 8.0%/5.1%/8.0% of annual rentals. At the
Public & Others 14 immediate expiries of 2.0 msf, the company has visibility of ~70% of the
area. It is already engaging with these clients and would likely be able
Relative Performance
to retain them.
500
• M-REIT has RFP pipeline for 16 msf across the 4 cities where it has
400
presence: 4.5 msf each in Mumbai/Pune, 6.0 msf in Hyderabad and 1.3
300
msf in Chennai.
200
100 • New NDCF format is not expected to have any impact on the
0 quantum of distribution, though there may be certain changes in the
composition of distribution going forward.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Mindspace Business Parks REIT

Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

Sales 17,519 11,282 17,260 22,392 23,806 8.0

EBITDA 11,116 8,282 13,651 15,376 17,512 12.0
PAT 4,747 3,075 5,084 4,204 5,615 4.3
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 63.5 73.4 79.1 68.7 73.6 –

PAT margin 27.1 27.3 29.5 18.8 23.6 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4

EPS (Rs) 8.0 5.2 8.6 7.1 9.5 4.3
BV (Rs) – 274.9 263.4 249.3 238.9 –
RoCE (%) – 4.2 5.0 5.6 6.3 –
RoA (%) – 3.9 4.8 5.4 6.0 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE – 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.9 –

Net profit margin 27.1 27.3 29.5 18.8 23.6 –
Asset turnover (x) – 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 –
Leverage factor (x) – 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data MM Forgings

Price (Rs) 1,206
New order wins and foray into EV segment to drive growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MMFO.BO
• MM Forgings (MMFG) started supplying large size components (front
Bloomberg code MMFG IN
axle beams and crankshafts) from high tonnage press-line which
Market cap. (US$ mn) 349 has higher margin and realisations. Further, MMFG has been investing
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.2 towards building machining capacity to enhance the share of higher
Issued shares (mn) 24 margin machined components.
Target price (Rs) 1,190 • US Class 8 trucks order book for FY25 is expected to remain stable on
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M strong order backlog. The company has increased their wallet share

Absolute 5 27 43 from their European customers and also increased product offering
to existing customers to sustain performance. Exports expected to be
Relative 5 27 24
flat for FY25.
Valuation Ratios
• The company is also planning to develop full powertrain for EVs
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
including Gear box and Controller for EV customers over the long-
EPS (Rs) 63.3 79.0 85.0 term. The company has targeted to produce 50-60k motors in FY25 as

+/- (%) 21.7 24.7 7.6 well as the company will start working on Motor Control Unit (MCU) in
FY24
PER (x) 20.1 16.1 15.0
• In the long-term, the company expects Rs 10-20 bn revenue in the
PBV (x) 3.7 3.1 2.6
next 7-10 years. Trail and testing of PMSM motors are underway and
Div./Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6 expected to be in production phase by FY25

EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.0 1.8 • The company will focus on three-wheeler and four-wheeler in the EV
space initially and expect investment of around Rs 1 bn over the next
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 10.5 9.3
18-24 months to scale-up the business.
Major Shareholders (%)
• On margins, management expects to cross 20%+ margins from
Promoters 56
3QFY25 onwards. Key drivers for margin expansion includes improved
FPIs 2
mix, soft raw material cost and cost optimisation measures.
MFs 11
• Machining contribution stood at 60% of overall mix in FY24.
Public & Others 30
Management is anticipating increase in machining mix to 62% in
Relative Performance FY25.
1,400
1,200
• Revenue mix segment-wise: CV: 81%, PV: 10% and Off Highway: 9%.
1,000 Geography-wise revenue segmentation: a) India: 65%, b) North
800
600
America: 12%, c) Europe: 16% and d) South America: 7%.
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

MM Forgings
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

257
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 9,039 7,273 7,256 11,046 14,093 15,504 18,002 20,084 11.4 13.8

EBITDA 1,732 1,252 1,213 2,017 2,555 2,868 3,420 3,856 10.6 15.9

PAT 814 462 466 918 1,256 1,528 1,906 2,052 13.4 15.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 54.8 54.1 52.2 54.3 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.2 - -

EBITDA margin 19.2 17.2 16.7 18.3 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.2 - -

PAT margin 9.0 6.4 6.4 8.3 8.9 9.9 10.6 10.2 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 - -

EPS (Rs) 33.7 19.2 19.3 38.0 52.0 63.3 79.0 85.0 13.4 15.9

BV (Rs) 202.0 216.8 207.3 239.3 285.3 340.6 411.6 488.5 11.0 19.8

RoCE (%) 14.7 8.6 8.4 14.1 15.8 16.4 17.4 17.2 - -

RoA (%) 13.1 7.7 7.2 11.9 13.1 13.6 14.6 14.5 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 22.1 9.5 9.6 17.0 19.8 20.2 21.0 18.9 - -

Net profit margin 9.0 6.4 6.4 8.3 8.9 9.9 10.6 10.2 - -

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 - -

Leverage factor (x) 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 - -

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Mold-Tek Packaging

Price (Rs) 757
Guides for 15% of volume growth for FY25
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MOLT.BO
Guidance remains healthy for FY25/26
Bloomberg code MTEP IN
• Volume growth is expected to grow at CAGR 15%+ for the next two years
Market cap. (US$ mn) 301
led by paints, F&F and pharma.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.7
• EBITDA/kg in FY24 declined to Rs 37 (versus Rs 40 in FY23) due to lower
Issued shares (mn) 33 capacity utilisation. With the improvement in capacity utilisation and
Target price (Rs) 1,041 better product mix, EBITDA/kg will inch towards Rs40 during 1HFY25.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Confident of pharma segment – can achieve sales of Rs 200-250 mn
Absolute (12) (10) (19) in FY25
Relative (12) (11) (38) • Management believes that it is far more confident on pharma
Valuation Ratios segment now than it was in January 2024.

Yr to 31 Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E • Recently commenced pharma plant is ISO and DMF certified.

EPS (Rs) 20.0 27.5 35.2 • Mold-Tek is going to differentiate itself from the other pharma
packaging players by offering entire range of pharma packaging
+/- (%) (17.4) 37.4 27.7
products including – canisters, blister packs, generic bottles and caps.
PER (x) 37.8 27.5 21.5
• Most of the peers offer generic bottles and couple of other products at
PBV (x) 4.2 3.7 3.2 max. They do not have entire range unlike Mold-Tek.

EV/Sales (x) 3.8 2.9 2.3 • Many small and big pharma companies have started to audit its plant.
The company has started sales of 10-12 SKUs of effervescent tubes to
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.8 15.0 12.1
some of the clients.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Management remains confident of achieving sales of Rs 200-250 mn
Promoters 33
in FY25 from the pharma segment.
FPIs 14
• Working capital for pharma segment is 90 days in line to other product
MFs 21
categories.
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 31 • EBITDA/kg in pharma segment is ~Rs 150 (versus Rs 37-40 of the
company).
Relative Performance
Paints segment to grow at 10-12% for the next two years led by Grasim’s
1,200
1,000 plants
800 • Mold-Tek has three plants for Grasim’s paint with an initial total
600
capacity of 5,000 tonnes.
400
200 • Management believes that is has gained at least 2% market share for
0
Asian Paints.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Decline in paints volumes in FY24 was on account of two things –

modernisation of Satara plant impacted volumes in 1H while decline
Mold-Tek Packaging
Sensex (rebased) in 2HFY24 was on account of high base of 2HFY23.

Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain

Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

259
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• In 2HFY23, Mold-Tek had launched special low weight paints containers for Asian Paints. It enjoyed
exclusive rights for last two quarters of FY23 before it lost the exclusivity.
• Second, as per the management, paints industry is going through a flux. Industry has reduced its inventory
levels in order to become more flexible and adept to the changing customer needs. This should help fully
backward integrated and efficient player like Mold-Tek on a long run.
• Both the above factors are now in base, and the segment is anticipated to grow by 10-12% for the next
couple of years.
• The company is planning to move ~600 tonnes of the total 2800 tonnes capacity at Satara to the other
units to improve the utilisation rates.
• Few positives from this segment – for the first time, Asian Paints started giving orders for high margin IML
containers (versus currently Heat Transfer Labelling containers). Second, Grasim has started procuring
both IML and HTL containers.
Food & FMCG (F&F) segment to continue on a high growth path
• F&F ended FY24 on a strong note with strong volume growth led by Q-pack containers.
• The company has been continuously trying to enter new segments in F&F including dry fruits, sweets and
confectionaries.
• Strong summer is expected to drive volumes in F&F led by ice cream segment.
• At Panipat, the company has already put-up a plant for Grasim’s paint division. It’s also in the process of
expanding the capacity over there for F&F. In past, due to absence of capacity in North, Mold-Tek has never
been able to supply to F&F clients in those markets. This new capacity is expected to start production by
July-August 2024.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY23-26E)
Financials
Sales 3,941 4,374 4,789 6,315 7,299 7,547 8,873 10,454 17 13
EBITDA 719 800 960 1,207 1,354 1,385 1,661 2,001 19 14
PAT 241 382 481 637 804 729 901 1,151 38 13
Margin (%)
Gross margin 39.4 41.3 43.1 40.4 40.3 41.3 41.8 42.3 – –
EBITDA margin 18.3 18.3 20.0 19.1 18.6 18.4 18.7 19.1 – –
PAT margin 6.1 8.7 10.0 10.1 11.0 9.6 10.1 11.0 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.0 – –
EPS (Rs) 8.7 13.8 17.0 21.5 24.2 22.0 27.2 34.7 35 13
BVPS (Rs) 68.8 71.2 90.6 154.0 168.4 183.9 203.0 227.4 31 11
RoCE (%) 20.6 20.3 21.8 21.5 18.5 14.6 16.0 18.4 – –
RoA (%) 18.1 17.6 18.8 19.0 16.8 13.2 14.3 16.4 – –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 13.0 19.7 21.2 17.9 15.8 12.5 14.0 16.1 – –
Net Profit margin 6.1 8.7 10.0 10.1 11.0 9.7 10.2 11.0 – –
Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Mold-Tek Packaging - Initiating Coverage - 01 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Monika Alcobev
All eyes on premium and luxury…
Key highlights
Industry update
• The Indian liquor market operates in an inverse pattern compared
to the global trends. In India, spirits is the largest segment, followed
by beer and wines. Within spirits, almost 2/3rd of the category is
dominated by whisky.
• The per capita consumption of liquor in India is still low compared
to the global average. However, drinking habits and consumption
patterns are undergoing a change. Social acceptance towards liquor
is increasing. Premiumisation is playing out well in the industry. The
luxury and premium portfolios across segments continue to grow
significantly faster than the value portfolios. Younger consumers are
more experimental and want to try newer and better brands. The
introduction of larger walk-in stores is improving the overall retail
shopping experience for liquor.
• The size of the domestic premium liquor industry is ~4 mn cases,
valued at around Rs 400-500 bn. Volumes in the Rs 2k+ per bottle
price point are growing at ~17-18% YoY.
• The on-trade channel has been one of the key drivers of growth
for the premium and luxury portfolios. On-trade channels like pubs
and fine-dining restaurants also serve as a medium of surrogate
marketing for liquor players.
About Monika Alcobev (MAB)
• MAB is an unlisted company operating in the premium liquor industry
in India. The vision of the company is to create a niche in the premium,
ultra-premium and luxury liquor market in India. The business model
revolves around acquiring exclusive rights to market and sell premium
international brands in India.
• Currently, MAB has exclusive rights for 100+ brands. MAB caters to
price points from Rs 1,500 per bottle up to Rs 3-4 lakhs against the
peers, whose premium portfolio ranges largely between Rs 500 to Rs
1,500 per bottle.
• Some of the prominent brands licenced by MAB include Bushmills,
Remy Martin, Russian Standard, 1800 Tequila and Laurent Perrier.
• The focus on niche categories like tequila and pisco differentiates
MAB from the larger players in India who have a whisky-focused
portfolio. Players like Pernod, Diageo, Radico, Allied Blenders have

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

261
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

anywhere between 50-90% of their portfolio in the whisky segment. Against that, MAB has a very
balanced portfolio, with ~40% in tequila, ~19% in vodka, ~15% in wine and ~10% in whisky.
• Given the premium price points at which it operates, the realization for MAB is ~Rs 13k per case, compared
to Rs 1-2k per case for larger players.
• Tier 1 cities are the main target markets for MAB. The company focuses on consumers in the age group
from 21 to 35 years.
• MAB currently has a distribution reach of around 12k retail outlets in India.
• The company enjoys 1.5-2% market share in India.
• The flexibility to introduce/withdraw brands gives MAB an edge over larger competitors who operate
with their own brands.

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Share Data Motherson Sumi Wiring India

Price (Rs) 68
Content increase on premiumisation and alternate powertrains
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MSWI.BO
• Motherson Sumi Wiring India (MSWIL) continues to thrive due to the
Bloomberg code MSUMI IN
strong collaboration between partners Sumitomo Wiring Systems
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,585 and SAMIL. With a record-breaking yearly revenue of Rs 83.3 bn, this
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.6 success is attributed to the buoyant Indian automotive industry.
Issued shares (mn) 4,421 Despite industry challenges, the company has outperformed by 11%,
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M driven by sustained customer demand, particularly in segments
such as sedans and SUVs. Its ability to cater to a diverse range of
Absolute (2) (4) 17
customers across PV, CV, 2W, and off-highway and agriculture
Relative (2) (4) (1)
equipment further contributes to its success.
Valuation Ratios
• The company aims to bolster its support for the expanding
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 requirements of customers by establishing 2 new facilities.
EPS (Rs) 1.5 1.5 2.0 Anticipated capex for the fiscal year 2025 is around Rs 2 bn. The
introduction of the two new facilities is expected to augment a
+/- (%) 20.2 2.3 31.1
growth of 10% to 15%. While they are set to become operational in
PER (x) 44.9 43.9 33.5
1QFY25, full volume ramp-up is anticipated in 2HY25.
PBV (x) 19.2 16.1 12.7 • The capex of around Rs 2 bn would be allocated over various
Div./Yield (%) 1.3 (1.0) 1.2 categories such as growth, expansion, productivity, quality
improvement, as well as maintenance or replacement of assets that
EV/Sales (x) 3.8 3.1 2.6
have reached the end of their useful life.
EV/EBITDA (x) 29.3 27.4 21.1
• The major OEMs have publicised their expansion plans, including
Major Shareholders (%) Maruti Suzuki India’s increase in capacity from 2.3 mn to 4 mn
Promoters 62 units over the next six-seven years. Similarly, Tata Motors and new
FPIs 11 entrants are investing in plants in India. This indicates a promising
MFs 14 market outlook, with diverse vehicle types entering the market.
BFSI’s 2 While specific predictions are challenging, positive trends like
Public & Others 11
polymerisation and customer facility investments signal growth
Relative Performance potential, prompting further investment in new facilities. Additionally,
80 the increasing number of features in cars is advantageous for
70
MSWIL as it enhances the value proposition, because the more the
60
50 features the more the value of the wiring harness going up because
40
30 the features are related to the market condition which increases
20
10
demand. Hence, MSWIL sees a bright future amidst this dynamic
0 market landscape.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The MSWIL team is focused on driving improvements, supported by

cost reduction activities and customer recoveries despite facing
Motherson Sumi Wiring India
inflationary headwinds. Extensive digitisation efforts have been
Sensex (rebased)
undertaken to enhance operational efficiency on the shop floor,

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

263
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ultimately leading to improved RoCE. Additionally, for commodities like copper, the pricing is directly
passed through, albeit with a quarter or sometimes 6-month lag depending on the customer.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%) (FY21-24)

Financials

Sales 39,377 56,350 70,574 83,283 28.4

EBITDA 5,531 6,649 7,814 10,132 22.4
PAT 3,962 4,107 4,870 6,383 17.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 35.6 34.2 33.5 34.4 –

EBITDA margin 14.0 11.8 11.1 12.2 –
PAT margin 10.1 8.1 6.9 7.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.0 17.2
BV (Rs) 2.2 3.5 4.2 5.3 33.2
RoCE (%) 125.9 57.0 42.7 46.8 –
RoA (%) 60.3 30.1 24.9 28.9 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 111.7 52.2 39.8 42.5 –

Net profit margin 10.1 8.4 6.9 7.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 4.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Price (Rs) 2,220
Diversifying growth avenues
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code MOFS.BO
• Huge opportunity exists for capital market players on the back of (a)
Bloomberg code MOFS IN
robust MoM demat addition in an under penetrated industry and
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,971 (b) higher allocation to equity investments from continuously rising
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.8 savings pool.
Issued shares (mn) 149 • The new app “RISE” combines the entire ecosystem of offerings under
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M one platform and came live in March 2024. Currently, 25% of the
Absolute (7) 37 248 customer base is using the application and the company is targeting

Relative (7) 37 230 to enrol 100% of the customer base by the end of June 2024.
• Robust runway of domestic flows is aiding equity-focused AMC
Valuation Ratios
business. Flows are driven by strong performance across products
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
on the back of stock selection based on quality growth, longevity
EPS (Rs) 88.0 63.2 164.1 and price. The management expects Rs 300 bn of grows flows in FY25
P/E 25.2 35.1 13.5 (Rs 170 bn in FY24).

BVPS (Rs) 382.3 424.8 588.5 • 70% of the revenue is asset & wealth business and 60% of revenue in
capital market is recurring in nature. On a consolidated basis, ~50% of
P/B 5.8 5.2 3.8
the company’s revenue is recurring in nature.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The company is leveraging its large channel network and cross
Promoters 69 selling opportunity to create a strong wealth proposition. Focus has
FPIs 7 shifted from brokerage model to offering entire suite of financial
MFs 6 products, reflected in declining brokerage contribution from 75-80%
Public & Others 17
to 35-37% in the past five-six years.
Relative Performance • In the wealth management business, the company is targeting
3,000 private banks to hire RMs by offering a better learning curve. RM
2,500 attrition has largely been owing to non-performance.
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited- VC

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Kartikeya Mohata

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com kartikeya.mohata@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)

Financials

Interest Income 8,178 7,675 7,531 10,253 12,283 18,947 25.3

Fees and commission income 15,154 15,492 19,495 26,073 27,334 36,253 23.7

Total Income 24,617 23,654 36,341 43,164 41,971 71,305 31.8

Operating Profit 4,019 3,249 15,940 16,641 13,006 31,145 76

PAT 2,853 2,154 12,030 13,107 9,328 24,456 83.6

Segment revenue

Capital Market – – – 25,401 27,422 39,600 -

Asset and Wealth management – – – 11,347 11,201 16,537 -

Home Finance – – – 5,284 5,319 5,891 -

Treasury Investments – – – 5,097 1,525 14,591 -

Profitability Ratios (%)

Operating Margin 16.3 13.7 43.9 38.6 31 43.7 –

PAT Margin 12.1 8 34.8 30.4 22.3 34.3 –

ROE 9.6 6.1 28.1 23 14.9 27.9 –

Valuation Ratios (X)

EPS (Rs) 20.5 12.8 85.2 88.0 63.2 164.1 –

P/E 111.4 178.2 26.4 25.6 35.6 13.7 –

BVPS 212.4 210.9 302.6 382.3 424.8 588.5 –

P/B 10.7 10.8 7.4 5.9 5.3 3.8 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Motilal Oswal Financial Services - 4QFY24 Result - Flash
Note - 29 Apr 24.pdf

266
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Natco Pharma

Price (Rs) 998
Revlimid continues to shine, while strong pipeline helps retain
BSE Sensex 73,961 positive outlook
Reuters code NATP.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code NTCPH IN • Strong pipeline underway – The company possesses strong potential
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,142 in its pipeline for key Para IV filings of Olaparib, Semaglutide, Ibrutinib,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 9.8 Carfilzomib, Trabectedin, etc. This is expected to gain traction from
Issued shares (mn) 179 FY29-30 onwards, as they go off-patent. Natco is due for a large M&A
transaction given the healthy cash on books of Rs 20 bn which is
Target price (Rs) 1,125
expected to scale-up further to Rs 40-50 bn in the coming two years.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Natco is scouting for large assets in the EM/ RoW market which can
Absolute (2) 0 61
boost its base business/core earnings.
Relative (2) 0 43
• Future guidance – For FY25 – Revenue growth is expected to be 15-
Valuation Ratios 20% and PAT growth to be around 20%. EBITDA margins expected to
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E remain elevated > 40%. Agrichem business expected to reach Rs 3

Adj. EPS (Rs) 80.2 91.4 102.8

bn (3 times) in the next two-three years. Capex plans of – Rs 3-3.5
bn for FY25, primarily towards maintenance capex. The company is
Growth (%) 104.7 13.9 12.5
not expanding any greenfield capacities, it is only expanding existing
PER 12.8 11.3 10.0 capacities.
Price/Book 3.1 2.4 1.9 • Healthy cash position and future M&A potential – Net cash of

Yield (%) 0.9 1.1 1.2

around Rs 20 bn as on May 2024 and gross debt of around Rs 1.2 bn.
The company is actively looking for a large acquisition or may even
EV/Sales 4.3 3.3 2.5
consider a buyback if a large acquisition isn’t done. The company
EV/EBITDA 9.9 7.7 6.0 is looking at RoW business for acquisition. Evaluating multiple deals
Major Shareholders (%) and might close in one-two years.

Promoters 50 • Kothur inspection – Natco expects minimal impact to its earnings

FPIs 16 going forward as all the major (key revenue contributors) ANDA
MFs 4 filings are done from both Kothur and Vizag site. Remediation costs
BFSI’s 6 will bring some impact on margins, until the company awaits re-
Public & Others 24 inspection and clearance.

Relative Performance • Agrochem – Natco has started the registration of CTPR globally
1,200 especially in their key markets of US and Brazil as they expect to
1,000 commence export in the next two-three years’ time. Over the
800 next three years, Natco expects to make ~Rs 3 bn in sales from the
600
Agrichem segment.
400
200 • Domestic markets – Domestic business is expected to remain
0
subdued for FY25 due to the continued muted performance of the
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

crop protection business globally. The domestic branded market

showed weakness, experiencing a 43% decline in sales in 4Q to Rs
Natco Pharma
Sensex (rebased)

Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

267
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

524 mn, while FY24 sales were muted at Rs 3.9 bn. The API segment also declined, by 31% to Rs 500 mn,
although in FY24, it had grown by 19% to Rs 2.5 bn.
• RoW markets – RoW markets like Egypt, Brazil, Canada, have done well with a combined revenue
contribution of around US$ 70 mn. Brazil and Canada expects 7-8 filings going forward in respective
market, with more filings in Colombia and Indonesia and is also seeking M&A opportunities in emerging
markets.
• Revlimid performance – Revlimid contributed around US$ 200 mn to the international business
revenues, marking its strong growth. It is expected to remain meaningful until FY26, sustaining margins
at ~40% until then. Volumes will continue to increase in the coming years from base years. The company
expects strong contribution in 1QFY25 as well. Revlimid post FY26 will be offset by other key molecules
like Semaglutide, Olaparib, Imbruvica (Natco has lost appeal), Tracleer and Kyprolis.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 20,945 19,150 20,521 19,448 27,071 39,662 47,189 60,048 13.6 23.0
EBITDA 7,948 5,826 6,062 2,635 9,356 16,835 19,627 22,863 16.2 16.5
PAT 6,444 4,608 1,902 3,264 7,153 12,769 14,301 16,723 14.7 14.4
Margin (%)

Gross margin 83.1 80.1 75.1 71.2 76.8 79.5 79.2 77.0 – –

EBITDA margin 37.9 30.4 29.5 13.5 34.6 42.4 41.6 38.1 – –

PAT margin 30.8 24.1 9.3 16.8 26.4 32.2 30.3 27.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 35.3 25.2 10.4 17.9 39.2 70.0 78.4 91.6 14.7 14.4
BV (Rs) 191.2 206.8 225.8 233.6 267.1 342.5 426.3 523.5 12.4 23.6
RoCE (%) 23.3 14.4 13.6 4.7 17.6 27.7 25.8 24.5 – –

RoA (%) 21.1 13.3 12.6 4.4 16.3 25.4 24.0 22.9 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 19.6 12.7 4.8 7.8 15.7 23.0 20.4 19.3 – –

Net profit margin 30.8 24.1 9.3 16.8 26.4 32.2 30.3 27.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Navin Fluorine International

Price (Rs) 3,187
Significant projects in the pipeline to drive growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code NAFL.BO
• Navin Fluorine International plans to establish a fourth vertical focusing
Bloomberg code NFIL IN
on advanced materials, with capex announcements expected in the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,894 next six-eight months.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 10.0 • FY25E capex includes Rs 1.6 bn for Phase 1 of cGMP4 to support the MSA,
Issued shares (mn) 50 and Rs 840 mn for a capacity expansion of 4,500 MT in R32.
Target price (Rs) 3,200 • Management anticipates EBITDA margins to be 20% for FY25E and 25%
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M for FY26E.
Absolute (7) 6 (32) • R-32 demand is projected to exceed supply by 2032, driven by
Relative (7) 5 (50) refrigeration. India is expected to maintain a duopolistic market for R32.
Globally, the market is expected to be tight due to mining difficulties of
Valuation Ratios
fluorspar in China and limited capacities in Europe/US.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Forty grades of HFOs qualify for blending with R32, presenting
EPS (Rs) 46.5 73.9 91.4
opportunities for lower GWP at a very low cost.
+/- (%) (38.6) 59.0 23.7 • The company is collaborating with Fermion on three intermediates:
PER (x) 68.6 43.1 34.9 one is registered, and the other two are in progress. Two of these
intermediates, used for Darolutamide (drug for prostate cancer), are
Price/Book (x) 6.6 5.9 5.2
routed to Fermion via Ami Organics.
EV/Sales (x) 8.0 6.7 5.4
• The specialty chemicals segment remains largely agrochemical-
EV/EBITDA (x) 41.7 27.7 21.8 dominated, with strong farm gate demand. Story of recovery only in
Major Shareholders (%) 2HFY25.
Promoters 29 • The company aims to reduce its current customer concentration by
FPIs 16 expanding to 7-8 strategic partnerships, with each contributing no
MFs 16 more than 10-15%.
BFSI’s 13
• Can expect the announcement on the new CEO soon.
Public & Others 27

Relative Performance
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Navin Fluorine International

Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

269
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 9,959 10,616 11,794 14,534 20,774 20,650 24,799 30,837 15.7 22.2

EBITDA 2,184 2,635 3,093 3,548 5,503 3,983 6,012 7,695 12.8 39.0

PAT 1,491 1,938 2,420 2,631 3,752 2,303 3,662 4,531 9.1 40.3

Margin (%)

Gross margin 52.1 54.4 54.4 54.2 56.9 54.7 57.0 57.0 – –

EBITDA margin 21.9 24.8 26.2 24.4 26.5 19.3 24.2 25.0 – –

PAT margin 15.0 18.3 20.5 18.1 18.1 11.2 14.8 14.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.1) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 – –

EPS (Rs) 30.2 39.2 48.9 53.0 75.7 46.5 73.9 91.4 9.1 40.3

BV (Rs) 216.9 285.4 330.1 372.2 441.0 480.9 539.3 614.7 17.3 13.1

RoCE (%) 20.6 20.1 21.8 18.7 20.5 10.3 14.0 15.5 – –

RoA (%) 17.6 17.7 19.5 16.2 17.7 9.1 12.3 13.6 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 14.5 15.6 15.9 15.1 18.6 10.1 14.5 15.8 – –

Net profit margin 15.0 18.3 20.5 18.1 18.1 11.2 14.8 14.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Navin Fluorine International - 4QFY24 Result Update - 07
May 24.pdf

270
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Nelcast

Price (Rs) 134
Strong traction in export market
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code NLCA.BO
• In the export segment, the company achieved a remarkable 35%
Bloomberg code NELC IN
YoY growth, surpassing its FY24 target of Rs 4.0 bn. This growth was
Market cap. (US$ mn) 140 attributed to the launch of new products and increased volume of
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.3 existing offerings.
Issued shares (mn) 87 • Despite a forecasted 10% to 15% downturn in the US CV market, the
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M current slowdown in the demand for heavy CVs, particularly Class
Absolute (10) (11) 44 8s, is observed in the 1HFY25, attributed to factors such as legislative

Relative (11) (12) 26 changes expected in January 2027. However, there is anticipation for
a pick-up towards the end of the year, with forecasts indicating a
Valuation Ratios
strong 2025 and potentially an all-time record in 2026 due to pre-buy
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 effects.
EPS (Rs) 1.6 3.4 6.3 • Despite this, the US market is expected to remain strong for the
+/- (%) 57.3 109.0 83.0 company, supported by the launch of new programmes over the
next 6-12 months. There is a growing opportunity in Europe, where
PER (x) 82.2 39.3 21.5
challenges such as profitability, energy, labor, and environmental
PBV (x) 2.6 2.5 2.3 concerns have led to closures in the castings space. As a result,
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.3 the company sees significant potential for export growth in Europe
in the coming years, aiming to capitalise on this opportunity while
EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.1 1.1
expecting strong export growth over the next two to three years
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.9 17.2 15.3
overall.
Major Shareholders (%) • For FY25, the company anticipates their EBITDA to remain largely
Promoters 75 stable, around Rs 12.5 per kg, with potential for some improvement.
FPIs 1 They foresee significant growth opportunities in exports, with a
Public & Others 24 focus on new product launches targeted at the North American and
Relative Performance European markets in the coming years.
200 • The domestic CV industry is anticipated to recover in 2HFY25.
150 Strong GST collections suggest increased public investment in
infrastructure, which will stimulate demand in the CV segment. This
100
uptick in demand will also benefit segments such as construction
50
equipment and tippers, which are part of the company’s portfolio.
0
• Nelcast has made a significant stride in sustainability by
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

inaugurating a 1 MW solar power plant at their Pedda Pariya facility.

This move marks a pivotal step towards reducing their carbon
Nelcast
Sensex (rebased)
footprint and embracing green energy. The initiative is expected to
substantially lower carbon emissions, reaffirming the company’s
commitment to environmental responsibility, while also leading to
significant cost savings.

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

271
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• In the next two-three years, the company does not anticipate any major capex plans. Instead, the
focus will be on optimisation and de-bottlenecking through smaller projects. There are no plans for
new production lines or Greenfield projects during this period.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 8,563 5,668 6,150 9,273 12,640 12,669 8.2

EBITDA 759 483 424 581 794 923 4.0

PAT 384 360 90 142 297 544 7.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 53.4 57.6 52.9 51.1 49.9 55.8 –

EBITDA margin 8.9 8.5 6.9 6.3 6.3 7.3 –

PAT margin 4.5 6.4 1.5 1.6 2.4 4.3 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 –

EPS (Rs) 4.4 4.1 1.0 1.6 3.4 6.3 7.2

BV (Rs) 45.4 48.3 49.4 50.8 53.8 59.7 5.6

RoCE (%) 12.1 7.0 4.5 6.4 9.1 9.6 –

RoA (%) 9.1 5.6 3.7 5.0 7.2 7.6 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 10.1 8.8 2.1 3.3 6.5 11.0 –

Net profit margin 4.5 6.4 1.5 1.5 2.4 4.3 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Neogen Chemicals

Price (Rs) 1,480
Battery chemicals to aid growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code NEOE.NS
• Neogen Chemicals (NEOGEN) is on track to become the first mover in
Bloomberg code NEOGEN IN
the battery chemicals segment in India owing to the extensive work it
Market cap. (US$ mn) 468 has done in this space over the past few years – further validated by
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.8 the technology partnership it has managed to strike with MUIS (Japan).
Issued shares (mn) 26 • The company aims to reach Rs 10.0 bn of topline, out of which
Target price (Rs) 1,586 contribution from API will be Rs 4.0 bn in FY26.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Base business EBITDA margins to be 18% (+/- 1%) with battery business
Absolute (4) 12 (8) (16-18%) in FY26.
Relative (4) 12 (26) • Battery business is expected to reach Rs 25.0 bn by FY28, taking a
stable lithium price of US$ 20-25/kg.
Valuation Ratios
• The addressable market for bromine derivatives is Rs 50-70 bn, while
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
custom manufacturing represents a much larger long-term growth
EPS (Rs) 13.5 20.2 39.7
opportunity that NEOGEN has only just begun to tap.
+/- (%) (32.6) 49.3 96.5 • On the battery chemicals and materials business, the company
PER (x) 109.7 73.5 37.4 expects RoCE of 20%+ and margins of around ~16%.

Price/Book (x) 5.1 6.5 5.6 • NEOGEN’s greenfield capacity in Pakhajan, is expected to come
online in 2HFY26, which may also contribute to battery demand for
EV/Sales (x) 6.2 5.6 4.0
electrolytes and be able to service ~30 GWh by FY28.
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.0 34.2 23.3
• GoI is ready to put in custom duties on electrolytes once India starts
Major Shareholders (%) battery components and cell manufacturing. Duties internationally
Promoters 57 are in the range 15-20%.
FPIs 5 • US IRA won’t pose a big challenge to NEOGEN as US manufacturers
MFs 20 need the salts from India for the non-China and non-foreign
BFSI’s 2
countries of concern part of the act.
Public & Others 16

Relative Performance
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Neogen Chemicals
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

273
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 2,391 3,061 3,364 4,873 6,862 6,907 8,591 13,902 23.6 41.9

EBITDA 434 584 644 866 1,116 1,101 1,402 2,361 20.4 46.5

PAT 209 291 313 446 500 357 532 1,046 11.2 71.3

Margin (%)

Gross margin 41.1 39.9 41.3 43.6 43.4 44.6 44.0 44.0 – –

EBITDA margin 18.2 19.1 19.1 17.8 16.3 15.9 16.3 17.0 – –

PAT margin 8.8 9.5 9.3 9.2 7.3 5.2 6.2 7.5 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.6 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.5 2.3 – –

EPS (Rs) 10.4 12.4 13.4 17.9 20.0 13.5 20.2 39.7 11.2 71.3

BV (Rs) 35.0 67.0 78.4 176.1 193.5 288.2 228.8 265.0 52.5 (4.1)

RoCE (%) 24.7 21.2 16.2 14.3 13.0 9.1 7.9 9.6 – –

RoA (%) 19.3 17.7 13.6 11.8 10.8 7.5 6.6 8.1 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 34.7 25.7 18.5 14.3 10.8 5.7 7.8 16.1 – –

Net profit margin 8.8 9.5 9.3 9.2 7.3 5.2 6.2 7.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.4 3.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Neogen Chemicals - 4QFY24 Result Update - 02 May
24.pdf

274
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Neuland Laboratories

Price (Rs) 6,043
CMS (innovator supplies) to drive value growth ahead
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code NEUL.BO
• Neuland Laboratories is emerging as a partner of choice on the CMS
Bloomberg code NLL IN
(innovator supplies) front largely due to its strong adherence to IP
Market cap. (US$ mn) 929 protection, strong manufacturing compliance and no conflict of
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.8 interest due to absence of FDF manufacturing.
Issued shares (mn) 13 • Neuland has much better visibility over the business, and it expects
Target price (Rs) 7,500 to grow 20% annually for the next four-five years as it aims to
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M commercialise more molecules from the CMS segment.

Absolute (20) (16) 120 • However, it expects FY25 to report modest growth and some
Relative (21) (16) 102 moderation of EBITDA margins but expects growth to rebound in
FY26 and FY27 led by capacity expansion and new product launches.
Valuation Ratios
• Out of 3 commercial molecules in place in CMS, Neuland expects it to
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
increase to 5 in the next two years.
EPS (Rs) 232.6 233.9 294.2
• CMS scale-up drives strong profitability
+/- (%) 83.6 0.5 25.8 o The CMS segment recorded strong 73% growth in sales to Rs 7.6
PER (x) 26.0 25.8 20.5 bn in FY24 driven by growth from commercial molecules and
molecules close to commercialisation, contributing around 49% of
PBV (x) 6.1 4.9 4.0
sales. The commercial sales stood at Rs 4.6 bn, while development
Div./Yield (%) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1)
sales stood at Rs 3 bn.
EV/Sales (x) 5.1 4.5 3.8 o Healthy pipeline in CMS division (88 molecules – 18 in commercial
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.8 16.0 12.4 stage, 14 in Pre-reg/Reg stage, 7 in phase III & registration stage, 21
in phase 2 that has doubled over the past year).
Major Shareholders (%)
o Esperion and Karuna are big clients where Neuland is key API
Promoters 33
FPIs 24
supplier. Neuland is working on two molecules out of the three
MFs 4 (third name not disclosed). Karuna (now acquired by BMS for US$
BFSI’s 3 14 bn) molecule KarXT used for Schizophrenia is where Neuland
Public & Others 36 supplies the final API Xanomeline (PDUFA date scheduled in
September 2024 with USFDA).
Relative Performance
o Complex opportunities like Peptides – Neuland has 2 molecules in
10,000
8,000
CMS that are one step away from commercialisation (but expect
6,000 benefit over a longer period timeframe) and has 3 molecules in
4,000 generic division that are expected to be filed by CY26 (have larger
2,000 opportunity size than CMS molecules).
0 o GLP1 segment poses a greater opportunity in a fragmented
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

manner. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are setting up massive capacities
for GLP1 drugs.
Neuland Laboratories
Sensex (rebased)

Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

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Industry outlook
• FY25 to be a soft year – low growth phase, but post this slowdown, there will be pickup to offset the
softness in FY25. The company guides for 20% CAGR growth over the next four-five years.
• Capex plans – Maintenance capex of Rs 1-1.2 bn p.a. Plans for construction of 2 New production blocks
at unit 3 for total cost of Rs 1.3 bn, has acquired additional land at Unit 1 for R&D pilot plant and Peptides
block.
• Neuland would require a new plant by FY28 and if they want to add plant then they will have to Start
working on the plant and start doing capex now. This requirement would arise because of the wide
range of products and development activities that would be required looking at the opportunity.
• Capex plans of Rs 1 bn year – maintenance capex as per the management. But as business grows,
Capex will be announced. In unit 3, they have space to add two more production blocks, apart from
that they may have to buy new land to accommodate new plant.
• GDS segment – is likely to pick-up led by new filings and then post patent expiration (max till 2030-32).
• There are ~18 products under commercialisation in GDS segment.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 6,383 7,345 9,182 9,233 11,662 15,306 16,499 19,012 19.1 11.5
EBITDA 584 1,019 1,468 1,426 2,718 4,626 4,688 5,800 51.3 12.0
PAT 164 162 806 638 1,635 3,001 3,017 3,796 78.8 12.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 42.6 48.2 52.3 54.3 59.0 62.3 61.3 62.2 – –

EBITDA margin 9.1 13.9 16.0 15.4 23.3 30.2 28.4 30.5 – –

PAT margin 2.6 2.2 8.8 6.9 14.0 19.6 18.3 20.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) – –

EPS (Rs) 12.7 12.6 62.5 49.5 126.7 232.6 233.9 294.2 78.8 12.5
BV (Rs) 542.1 550.3 609.6 651.5 770.6 994.3 1,223.2 1,512.4 12.9 23.3
RoCE (%) 3.8 7.5 12.0 8.8 19.5 31.4 26.1 26.9 – –

RoA (%) 3.3 6.3 9.6 7.1 15.4 24.3 20.5 21.3 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 2.6 2.3 10.8 7.8 17.8 26.4 21.1 21.5 – –

Net profit margin 2.6 2.2 8.8 6.9 14.0 19.6 18.3 20.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Neuland Laboratories - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May
24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data NIIT Learnings Systems

Price (Rs) 415
Expects revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of
BSE Sensex 73,961 FY25…
Reuters code 0.0 Key highlights
Bloomberg code NIITMTS IN • NIIT Learnings Systems (NIITMTS) recent growth has been fuelled by
Market cap. (US$ mn) 674 both addition of new customers as well as improvement in wallet
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.4 share from existing customers.
Issued shares (mn) 136 • While several existing customers are still in pause mode on high-
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M ticket investments relating to training, on the other hand, pressure

Absolute (17) (20) 0 to optimise costs is creating new outsourcing opportunities for the
company. However, given the uncertain times, decision-making
Relative (17) (20) (18)
cycles continue to be long.
Valuation Ratios
• The deal pipeline continues to be strong, including a few large
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
opportunities where the company is placed favourably.
EPS (Rs) 17.5 14.0 15.1 • The company expects the addition of customers run rate to be in the
+ / -(%) – (19.9) 7.9 tune of 12-15 new customers.

PER (x) 23.7 29.6 27.4 • In addition to organic opportunities, the company expects inorganic
opportunities to play a significant role in growth trajectory given the
PBV (x) 8.8 7.4 6.0
strength of balance sheet.
Div./ Yield (%) 1.6 – 0.6
• The EBITDA margin was 25% in 4QFY24, it was up 113 bps on a QoQ
EV/ Sales (x) 3.8 3.8 3.4 basis and 43 bps on YoY basis. The margin improvement was driven
EV/ EBITDA (x) 14.9 17.9 14.6 by a better product mix as well as improved resource utilisation.
• The company is continuing to disproportionately invest in sales and
Major Shareholders (%)
marketing to accelerate customer acquisition, as well as improving
Promoters 35
market share by investing in consulting as well as engagement
FPIs 18
management.
MFs 13
BFSI’s 4 • For FY25, NIIT Learning Systems expects growth to be in the range
Public & Others 29 of 12-14% and EBITDA margin to be range-bound between 22-24%.
Further, the company expects that growth will accelerate in the
Relative Performance
second half of FY25.
600
500 • The company is aiming for US$ 400-500 mn revenue by FY27. The
400 company expects to do one acquisition each year in the range of
300
US$ 20-40 mn range.
200
100
0
Oct-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Aug-23
Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

NIIT Learning Systems

Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%) (FY22-24)

Financials

Sales 11,323 13,618 15,535 17.1

EBITDA 2,916 2,921 3,622 11.4

PAT 2,021 1,922 2,132 2.7

Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 25.8 21.4 23.3 –

EBIT Margin 22.0 18.0 19.5 –

PAT Margin 17.8 14.1 13.7 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) –

EPS (Rs) 17.5 14.0 15.2 (6.8)

BV (Rs) 47 56 69 21.2

RoCE (%) – 31.4 28.4 –

RoA (%) – 19.6 17.9 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE – 29.2 24.4 –

Net profit margin – 14.1 13.7 –

Asset Turnover (x) – 1.0 0.8 –

Leverage factor (x) – 2.0 2.1 –

278
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Nippon Life India Asset Management

Price (Rs) 598
Derisking the business model
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code NIPF.BO
• Nippon Life India Asset Management’s (NAM) 3-5-year focus remains
Bloomberg code NAM IN
to derisk the business model by improving non-MF business.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4526.0
• If any opportunity for inorganic growth arises on the AIF/PMS side, the
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.2 company will be keen to pursue it.
Issued shares (mn) 631 • 80% of the AUM is in the top quartile. At present, there is no plan for
Target price (Rs) 540 active open-ended NFOs. On the passive side, NFOs are in the product
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M pipeline.
Absolute 2 16 140 • The cost structure has minimal downside; due to inflation’s impact, it
Relative 2 16 121 is expected to remain at similar levels or move upwards.

Valuation Ratios • 54% is direct AUM, 46% is through distributors, and equity AUM is largely
distributor-driven. 31% of equity AUM is from B30 cities versus 26% for
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
the industry. The company currently has 192 branches with presence
EPS (Rs) 17.8 19.1 22.1
in 263 locations (including aforementioned branches). NAM has tie-
P/E 33.7 31.3 27.1 ups with PSU and corporate banks.
BVPS (Rs) 64.0 64.9 66.0 • Eastern India remains under-penetrated, which could be an area for
the company to explore, while currently, the company does not have
P/B 9.4 9.2 9.1
any plans to open a branch in eastern India as branches are opened
Major Shareholders (%)
only after reaching a critical mass.
Promoters 73
• Brokerage for MFDs ranges between 55% and 60%, and NDs will be
FPIs 5
65% to 70%. The net sale share for FY24 was in double digits.
MFs 7
BFSI’s 7
Public & Others 7

Relative Performance
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Nippon Life India Asset Management

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Revenue from operations 14786 12030 10621 13066 13498 16432 20779 24013 8 21

Other Income 1713 (98) 3572 2290 1668 3941 2987 2974 n.m. (13)

Total Income 16499 11932 14193 15356 15166 20373 23766 26986 14 15

Employee benefits 2935 3024 2713 2903 3029 3360 3868 4236 3 12

Other Expenses 3878 2273 1945 1743 2022 2515 3154 3343 3 15

Total Expenses 9497 6334 5423 5470 5889 6849 8114 8811 2 13

Operating profit 7103 5,931 9,103 10,197 9,615 13,879 16,024 18,567 24 16

PAT 4871 4158 6794 7434 7229 11063 11908 13765 28 12

Shareholder’s funds 25323 25,931 31,009 34,786 35,156 39,822 40,399 41,078 11 2

AAUM (Rs bn) 4170 3,954 3,088 3,761 3,599 4,519 5,805 6,776 3 22

As % of AUM (bps)
Revenue from Operations 35.5 30.4 34.4 34.7 37.5 36.4 35.8 35.4 – –

Employee Benefit Exp. 7.0 7.6 8.8 7.7 8.4 7.4 7.3 6.5 – –

Other Expenses 4.6 2.7 5.4 4.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 4.9 – –

PAT 11.7 10.5 22.0 19.8 20.1 24.5 19.9 20.1 – –

Core PAT 9.5 10.8 12.6 15.1 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.6 – –

Ratio (x)
EPS (Rs) 7.8 6.7 10.9 11.9 11.6 17.8 19.1 22.1 28 12

P/E 76.3 89.4 54.7 50.0 51.4 33.7 31.3 27.1 `– –

BVPS (Rs) 40.7 41.6 49.8 55.9 56.5 64.0 64.9 66.0 11 2

P/B 14.7 14.3 12.0 10.7 10.6 9.4 9.2 9.1 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Nippon Life India Asset Management - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 24 Apr 24.pdf

280
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Nitin Spinners

Price (Rs) 315
Future growth to be led by increasing share from value-added
BSE Sensex 73,961 products
Reuters code NISP.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code NSPL IN • In the last few years, the spindle capacity has grown at a CAGR of
Market cap. (US$ mn) 212 4-5%. There has been no meaningful capacity addition in the last few
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.7 years.
Issued shares (mn) 56 • Last year, the cotton supplies were lower and also the quality was
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M impacted. This year, the availability of cotton crops has improved

Absolute (16) (11) 21 significantly though the yield continues to be lower.

Relative (16) (11) 3 • Stable cotton prices and improved cotton-yarn spreads: Cotton
prices are expected to remain stable going forward. Cotton-yarn
Valuation Ratios
spreads are expected to improve in the near term. The margins of
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
spinning companies should witness improvement with improving
EPS (Rs) 58.8 29.3 24.0 demand and cotton yarn spreads.

+/- (%) 380.3 (50.2) (18.3) • Demand: There has been increase in demand from the downstream
sectors like home textiles and apparels. The capacity utilisation in
PER (x) 5.3 10.7 13.1
knitting and denim continues to remain subdued and is expected to
PBV (x) 2.0 1.7 1.5
revive in the near-term.
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.8 0.8 • Foray into garmenting: The company believes that garmenting
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.2 1.1 businesses have a long gestation period of three-four years, and it
is meaningful to foray into garmenting when the companies have
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.8 9.4 8.2
the ability to put up large capacities to enjoy benefits of scale. The
Major Shareholders (%) company is looking to enter into garmenting space at opportune
Promoters 56 time when they have enough capital to put large capacities.
FPIs 1
• Capex: The company is currently working on the future capex plans.
MFs 14
Going forward, the capex will be majorly diverted towards value-
Public & Others 29
added products.
Relative Performance • Volume outlook for FY25: The company is already running at
500 maximum capacity utilisation. For FY24, the company had production
400
volumes of 91,500 mtpa of yarn out of the total capacity of 1,10,000
300
mtpa. For FY25, at maximum utilisation, the company should be able
200
to produce 1,05,000 mtpa of yarn.
100
• Increase in share of value-added products: The share of value-
0
added products is expected to go up from 38-40% in FY24 to 50% by
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

FY25-26.

Nitin Spinners Key triggers

Sensex (rebased)
• Announcement of new capex plans preferable towards the value-
added products.

Archit Joshi Roshan Nair

Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com roshan.nair@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Revival in demand from the downstream products.

• Stable cotton prices and improved yarn prices should lead to improvement in cotton-yarn spreads.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 12,425 14,381 16,244 26,923 24,067 29,056 18.5

EBITDA 1,781 1,698 2,573 6,517 2,971 3,803 16.4
PAT 641 238 689 3,308 1,648 1,347 16.0
Margin (%)

Gross margin 37.1 36.4 41.7 45.2 32.2 34.3 –

EBITDA margin 14.3 11.8 15.8 24.2 12.3 13.0 –
PAT margin 5.2 1.7 4.2 12.3 6.8 4.6 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.8 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 –

EPS (Rs) 11.4 4.2 12.3 58.8 29.3 24.0 16.0
BV (Rs) 85.8 87.9 100.2 155.8 183.0 203.9 18.9
RoCE (%) 11.1 6.1 10.6 34.4 11.1 11.1 –
RoA (%) 10.7 5.9 10.1 32.3 10.6 10.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 14.3 4.9 13.0 46.0 17.3 12.4 –

Net profit margin 5.2 1.7 4.2 12.3 6.8 4.6 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.6 3.2 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 –

282
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Nuvoco Vistas Corporation

Price (Rs) 314
Focus on improving leverage...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code NUVO.BO
• Nuvoco Vistas Corporation has successfully implemented its cost-
Bloomberg code NUVOCO IN
reduction initiative, Project Bridge 1.0 which has resulted into reduction
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,346 in operating cost by Rs 30/tonne. Following the success of this initiative,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.9 the company plans to launch Project Bridge 2.0, aiming for additional
Issued shares (mn) 357 cost savings of up to Rs 50/ tonne.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Net debt/EBITDA has come down to 2.4x in FY24 from 4.5x in FY21 with
Absolute (7) (5) (7) net debt of Rs 40 bn at the end of FY24. The company is considering the

Relative (7) (5) (25) next phase of growth with a capacity expansion plan for an integrated
cement plant in norther region.
Valuation Ratios
• The company is continuously increasing the premium cement
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
proportion in overall sales mix with 37% in FY24 from 34% in FY21.
EPS (Rs) 0.9 0.4 4.1 Additionally, the company maintains a higher share of trade sales at
+/- (%) (223.8) (50.6) 829.2 74% of overall sales.

PER (x) 350.0 26.6 76.2 • Cost dynamics is expected to remain stable in the coming year with
stable prices for petcoke and coal coupled with long-term supply
PBV (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2
agreements for key raw materials. Furthermore, cost efficiency
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.5 1.5 measures like increasing green fuel, reduction in lead distance and
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 13.5 9.7 project bridge 2 would improve operational efficiency.

Major Shareholders (%) • The company’s long-term strategy to boost volume in the North and
prioritise value growth in the East, which is progressing well. It has
Promoters 72
outperformed the industry in the North, beating industry growth
FPIs 3
by 3-4%. Moving forward, the next phase of capital expenditure will
MFs 15
BFSI’s 4
be directed towards the northern region. In the eastern region, it is
Public & Others 6 focusing on increasing volume near its plants by optimising plant
locations to reduce lead distances.
Relative Performance
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Nuvoco Vistas Corp

Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 70,521 67,932 74,888 93,180 105,862 107,329 8.8

EBITDA 9,177 12,972 14,605 15,016 8,046 16,237 12.1
PAT 110 2,386 (124) 317 4,178 1,474 68.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 79.5 81.9 83.9 85.2 83.1 81.8 –

EBITDA margin 13.0 19.1 19.5 16.1 7.6 15.1 –
PAT margin 0.2 3.5 (0.2) 0.3 3.9 1.4 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 –

EPS (Rs) (1.3) 10.3 (0.8) 0.9 0.4 4.1 NA
BV (Rs) 249.4 217.8 216.6 247.0 247.5 251.8 0.2
RoCE (%) 4.6 8.2 5.5 4.2 1.9 5.5 –
RoA (%) 0.1 1.8 (0.1) 0.2 2.2 0.8 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 0.2 4.9 (0.2) 0.4 4.7 1.6 –

Net profit margin 0.2 3.5 (0.2) 0.3 3.9 1.4 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.5 2.5 NA 2.2 2.2 2.1 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Oberoi Realty

Price (Rs) 1,820
New launches as well as sustenance sales to drive growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code OEBO.BO
• Construction work at Pokhran Road project has already commenced,
Bloomberg code OBER IN
contracts are in place and show apartments are ready. The launch
Market cap. (US$ mn) 7,930 can be around the festive season i.e. in October 2024.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.7 • NCR and Adarsh Nagar (1.1 msf total area) projects launch can likely
Issued shares (mn) 364 happen in the next fiscal.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Three Sixty West demand is very strong, which can support bookings
Absolute 23 35 96 momentum in the coming quarters. Much of the portion of balance
Relative 23 35 77 inventory in this project is on the higher floors, which can enable
margins to sustain at higher levels.
Valuation Ratios
• Apart from the Pokhran project, the company has one tower in Borivali
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24P
one tower (~1 msf), 4th/5th tower in OGC, balance of Mulund to be sold
EPS (Rs) 28.8 52.4 53.0
(higher floors) which provides good launch visibility.
+/- (%) 41.6 81.9 1.2 • Tardeo project can likely get launched in 12 months and the company
PER (x) 63.2 34.8 34.4 is in the process of getting requisite approvals.

PBV (x) 6.4 5.4 4.8 • Commerz-III: OC has been received and Morgan Stanley is the
anchor tenant and can potentially occupy 50% of building. Overall,
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.3
leasable carpet area is 2.4 msf and Oberoi is in active discussions with
EV/Sales (x) 25.3 16.6 15.1 prospective tenants which can likely take leasing to 80-85%, whereas
EV/EBITDA (x) 57.5 32.8 28.0 in the next two quarters, it can probably achieve optimum leasing.
Rentals for this asset have started from April 2024.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Borivali Mall is nearly complete (last stage of completion) and fit-outs
Promoters 68
FPIs 17
are in progress. Also, Oberoi has started signing term sheets (seen
MFs 11 good success). The company will be able to do soft launch by October
BFSI’s 2 and rental can start thereafter.
Public & Others 2 • ORL is not looking very aggressively at Bengaluru market.

Relative Performance • Rentals from annuity assets can cross Rs 10 bn in FY25 with the two
2,000 new projects – Commerz-III and Borivali Mall getting operational.

1,500

1,000

500

0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Oberoi Realty
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

285
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 25,736 22,296 20,451 26,790 41,738 44,795 11.7

EBITDA 11,553 10,480 10,004 11,813 21,117 24,099 15.8
PAT 8,169 6,893 7,393 10,471 19,046 19,266 18.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 51.5 53.5 56.4 49.6 55.3 60.0 –

EBITDA margin 44.9 47.0 48.9 44.1 50.6 53.8 –
PAT margin 31.7 30.9 36.2 39.1 45.6 43.0 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 22.5 19.0 20.3 28.8 52.4 53.0 18.7
BV (Rs) 220.8 237.3 257.7 286.5 335.8 380.8 11.5
RoCE (%) 14.6 11.0 9.4 9.7 14.5 16.2 –
RoA (%) 11.1 9.4 8.6 8.7 12.7 14.0 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 11.6 8.3 8.2 10.6 16.8 14.8 –

Net profit margin 31.7 30.9 36.2 39.1 45.6 43.0 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Oberoi Realty - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 15 May 24.pdf

286
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Share Data PCBL

Price (Rs) 235
Transition into specialty chemical player…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PCBL.BO
• PCBL has is going for a capex of Rs 5.0-5.5 bn for adding 90k tonnes of
Bloomberg code PCBL IN
Carbon Black brownfield capacity in Tamil Nadu (Phase I for 30k tonnes
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,062 and Phase II for 60k tonnes) and 20k tonnes of Specialty Carbon Black
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 11.8 capacity in Mundra (Phase II).
Issued shares (mn) 377 • The company is also evaluating another greenfield Carbon Black
Target price (Rs) 371 capacity expansion in Tamil Nadu for an estimated amount of Rs 10.0
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M bn.

Absolute (13) (18) 72 • For Aquapharm Chemicals (ACPL), capex is estimated to be Rs 1.0 bn
Relative (13) (18) 54 in India and Rs 1.8 bn in the US (to be done in 2 phases). The company
expects Rs 3.0-3.5 bn in EBITDA for FY25 in ACPL and believes FY26 to be
Valuation Ratios
year of turnaround for ACPL.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Rubber margins have improved and some rubber grades are making
EPS (Rs) 13.0 12.7 15.9 similar margins to specialty. PCBL has discarded lot of low margin
Change (%) 11.1 (2.7) 25.5 grades and is using those lines for higher grades.

PER (x) 18.0 18.5 14.7 • In China, factors like aging populations and strict environmental norms
provide a barrier for Chinese companies to come back in Carbon Black
PBV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.0
business. Also, with Cabot having a plant in China, makes it difficult for
Div./Yield (%) 2.4 1.1 1.3 new entrants to come in and compete with Cabot.
EV/Sales (x) 2.1 1.7 1.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 9.8 8.6

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 51
FPIs 7
MFs 4
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 35

Relative Performance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

PCBL /India
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 35,286 32,435 26,595 44,464 57,741 64,198 83,244 90,840 12.7 19.0
EBITDA 6,162 4,641 5,180 6,530 7,312 10,373 14,318 16,124 11.0 24.7
PAT 3,827 2,875 3,140 4,263 4,422 4,911 4,776 6,249 5.1 12.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 34.9 32.5 39.5 29.5 24.6 30.4 32.0 32.3 – –

EBITDA margin 17.5 14.3 19.5 14.7 12.7 16.2 17.2 17.8 – –

PAT margin 10.8 8.9 11.8 9.6 7.7 7.6 5.7 6.9 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 – –

EPS (Rs) 10.1 7.6 8.3 11.3 11.7 13.0 12.7 15.9 5.1 10.5
BV (Rs) 43.7 45.0 51.3 69.2 75.0 86.0 99.1 116.5 14.5 16.4
RoCE (%) 22.6 14.9 15.2 17.0 16.3 12.9 11.7 12.7 – –

RoA (%) 18.2 12.0 12.1 13.2 12.4 10.2 9.4 10.0 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 25.1 16.7 17.3 18.7 16.2 16.2 13.7 15.0 – –

Net profit margin 10.8 8.9 11.8 9.6 7.7 7.6 5.7 6.9 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.4 3.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/PCBL - 4QFY24 Result Update - 23 May 24.pdf

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Share Data PDS

Price (Rs) 413
Strong order book visibility…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PDSM.BO
Sourcing as a service (SaaS)
Bloomberg code PDSL IN
• Asda of UK came to PDS to offer the sourcing of Bangladesh. The terms
Market cap. (US$ mn) 654
were 3% plus whatever they can negotiate.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.7
• Asda has recently given the sourcing of Turkey to PDS, which is a US$
Issued shares (mn) 132 350 mn contract for five years.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• Walmart does US$ 2.5 bn of sourcing currently. They mentioned that
Absolute (11) (19) 28 they want to increase their business with PDS.
Relative (11) (19) 10 • Bangladesh has got complete order of Myntra’s Bangladesh sourcing.
Valuation Ratios Orders should start by the first week of June.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 • Pricing in Bangladesh is down 2% YoY. INR currency depreciation can
offset Bangladesh labour rate hikes.
EPS (Rs) 22.2 24.6 15.4
• The business is bottomline accretive.
+/- (%) (61.0) 10.6 (37.5)
Designing as a service
PER (x) 19.2 17.3 27.7
• ABG generally acquires loss making brands and then restructure it.
PBV (x) 6.4 5.4 4.8
They need 2 people – B2B like PDS and B2C like ABFRL. They short listed
Div./Yield (%) 5.5 1.2 0.7 PDS to do ted baker designing which has a 10-year licence.

EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.5 0.6 Manufacturing business

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.2 11.9 15.0 • The business is done to only know the margins available in
manufacturing and hence, it will always be only 6-8% of topline.
Major Shareholders (%)
• They want to get sourcing business on the back of manufacturing.
Promoters 66
FPIs 4
PDS ventures – ESG segment
BFSI’s 1 • The company started this to fund startups participating in unique
Public & Others 30 ideas.

Relative Performance • The company has 45-50 investments. These are not financial
investments.
750
650 • The cash flows are capped at US$ 5 mn.
550 Method of operation
450
• 90% of the business done by PDS is FOB.
350
• The company takes insurance of its consignments and discounts the
250
bills as the LC is received.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Payment and receipts are in dollars only.

PDS • The company has an operating leverage business. Its topline declines,
Sensex (rebased)
bottomline falls faster.

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

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Guidance
• The company is experiencing a market recovery.
• The order book for 1H is up by ~27% YoY. Orders are in place. Margins will start improving with a lag and are
expected to improve in 2H onwards.
• In the longer term, the focus on US operations will increase.
• The company aims for 10% growth in topline and 15% growth in bottomline.
• SaaS revenue will reach closer to Rs 20 bn versus Rs 13 bn in FY24. SaaS is a sticky business due to contracts
lasting three-five years.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 64,859 66,480 62,129 88,282 105,770 103,726 9.8

EBITDA 1,116 1,860 2,299 3,226 4,592 3,920 28.6
PAT 689 946 1,484 2,928 3,268 2,027 24.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 14.6 16.5 16.5 16.2 16.7 20.4 –

EBITDA margin 1.7 2.8 3.7 3.7 4.3 3.8 –
PAT margin 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.1 2.0 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.6 0.4 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) 0.2 –

EPS (Rs) 26.4 36.3 57.0 22.2 24.6 15.4 –
BV (Rs) 179.8 214.5 248.4 66.2 79.2 88.4 –
RoCE (Rs) 8.8 12.1 14.7 23.0 24.7 16.2 –
RoA (Rs) 5.3 7.1 8.5 11.8 13.2 9.3 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 14.8 18.4 24.6 38.5 33.9 18.3 –

Net profit margin 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.1 2.0 –
Asset turnover (x) 3.4 2.9 2.6 3.1 3.3 2.9 –
Leverage factor (x) 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Persistent Systems

Price (Rs) 3,411
Focus on growth with reasonable margins in FY25; expects
BSE Sensex 73,961 Healthcare vertical to perform strongly…
Reuters code PERS.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code PSYS IN • For the next 12 months, given the challenging macro environment,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 6,297 the company’s goal is to maintain top-quartile growth, while keeping
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 33.3 margins at the current level.
Issued shares (mn) 154 • Persistent Systems (PSYS) is expected to grow at an industry-leading
Target price (Rs) 3,537 pace in FY25 and remains committed to achieving its target of US$ 2

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M bn in revenue within the next few years.

Absolute 1 (21) 33 • Margins are expected to remain flat in FY25, but a 150-200 bps
improvement is expected by the time the US$ 2 bn revenue target is
Relative 1 (21) 15
reached.
Valuation Ratios
• Improving margins is an easier task compared to achieving higher
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
growth. Therefore, for FY25, the company will focus on growth with
EPS (Rs) 75.7 90.4 110.5 reasonable margins.
+ / -(%) 24.0 19.5 22.2 • In the BFSI, Healthcare & Lifesciences and Hi-tech verticals, the
company is gaining ground as a challenger to larger firms. A deal
PER (x) 45.0 37.7 30.8
won in the healthcare vertical a couple of quarters ago was secured
PBV (x) 10.4 8.8 7.3
against a Tier-1 company. This client is now among the top 4 accounts.
Div./ Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 0.9 Confidence in healthcare vertical growth for 1HFY25 is strong.
EV/ Sales (x) 5.2 4.4 3.7 • The company foresees growth following a similar trajectory for the
BFSI sector in the near term. PSYS has opened fairly large accounts in
EV/ EBITDA (x) 29.4 24.6 19.9
the BFSI vertical, which are now in the ramp-up phase.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Utilisation is a crucial lever for the company. A 1% improvement in
Promoters 31
utilisation gives a 30-bps margin benefit. PSYS expects that utilisation
FPIs 26
should increase going forward.
MFs 21
BFSI’s 5
• The company’s attrition rate has decreased to a comfortable range of

Public & Others 17 11-13% over the last few quarters, aligning with industry trends.
• Investments have been made in building S&M capacity, as well as
Relative Performance
developing next-gen technology assets, including in the AI domain.
5,000
4,500 These investments are crucial for driving future growth.
4,000
3,500 • Over the last quarter, the company observed that multiple PoCs have
3,000 been progressing towards scaled production levels.
2,500
2,000 • AI is creating significant opportunities for PSYS in two broad areas: 1)
1,500
1,000 AI for product engineering and 2) AI for enterprises. The company has
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

been working on AI for decades, with Gen AI being a part of AI. In the
next two quarters, one should expect the scale of Gen AI to ramp-up.
Persistent Systems
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

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• A 10% increase in developer productivity is seen from Gen AI platforms. The company will pass on these
benefits to the customers going forward. Pricing of Gen AI is expected to evolve going forward.
• The pecking order for FY25 will be Healthcare & Lifesciences, followed by BFSI and Hi-tech vertical.
• M&A: The company is actively seeking M&A opportunities in the Healthcare and BFSI spaces. Within
Healthcare, the focus is on the payer-provider ecosystem, and within BFSI, certain sub-segments are
being targeted. The company is evaluating multiple tuck-in acquisitions in Western Europe from a
business perspective and Eastern Europe from a delivery perspective.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 33,659 35,658 41,879 57,107 83,506 98,216 114,291 131,435 25.5 15.7

EBITDA 5,805 4,930 6,831 9,581 15,191 17,243 20,375 24,746 27.2 19.8

PAT 3,517 3,403 4,507 6,903 9,211 10,935 13,652 16,686 27.2 23.5

Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 17.2 13.8 16.3 16.8 18.2 17.6 17.8 18.8 – –

EBIT Margin 12.6 9.2 12.1 13.9 14.9 14.4 14.6 15.6 – –

PAT Margin 10.4 9.5 10.8 12.1 11.0 11.1 11.9 12.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) – –

EPS (Rs.) 23.3 22.5 29.9 45.7 61.0 72.4 90.4 110.5 27.2 23.5

BV (Rs.) 158 158 196 223 263 328 389 469 13.5 19.6

RoCE (%) 20.9 17.0 21.9 24.8 28.4 29.0 30.7 32.0 – –

RoA (%) 16.5 13.5 17.5 19.4 21.2 21.2 22.7 24.2 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 29.5 14.3 16.9 21.8 25.1 25.6 25.2 25.8 – –

Net profit margin 10.4 9.5 10.8 12.1 11.0 11.6 11.9 12.7 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Persistent Systems - 4QFY24 Result Update - 22 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Petronet LNG

Price (Rs) 297
In prime position to capitalise on India’s increasing LNG imports
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PLNG.BO
• Spot LNG prices expected to remain subdued, EU inventory levels
Bloomberg code PLNG IN
above historical average – Weak US/EU winter coupled with record
Market cap. (US$ mn) 5,346 gas production from US has led to high gas inventory builds across
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 24.2 US and EU. European gas inventory currently stands at 67% of storage
Issued shares (mn) 1,500 capacity (above historical average of ~40-50%) and management
Target price (Rs) 254 believes they can go close to 80-90% in the next one-two months.
All these factors should lead to subdued LNG prices. Management
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
believes LNG demand picks up further if Spot LNG prices go below US$
Absolute (4) 9 36
7-8/mmbtu and demand declines if prices go past US$ 17-18/mmbtu.
Relative (4) 9 18
• High power demand, seasonal closure of Dabhol terminal continues
Valuation Ratios
to drive high Dahej LNG capacity utilisation: Given the onset of rainy
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E season, Dabhol LNG terminal will remain closed till September 2024.
EPS (Rs) 23.6 23.8 22.4 India’s power demand hit record high of 250 GW on 30th May and
that should keep gas demand strong. Management believes Dahej
Growth (%) 9.1 0.8 -5.8
terminal utilisation will continue to remain above 100% throughout
PER (x) 12.6 12.5 13.3 the year if LNG prices remain below US$ 12/mmbtu. While Dahej’s
PB (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 nameplate capacity is 17.5 mmtpa, ~19.5 mmtpa of LNG can be
regasified at peak utilisation.
Div./Yield (%) 3.4 3.4 2.0
• LNG imports to increase by ~10% next year, Dahej terminal remains
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.6 0.7
well positioned to capture the opportunity – With Dahej terminal’s
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 7.0 7.4 expansion of 5 mmtpa expected to be commissioned by March 2025,
Major Shareholders (%) Petronet LNG (PLNG) is in a prime position to capitalise. 2 LNG tanks
Promoters 50 are expected to be commissioned by July 2024 which should further
FPIs 26 enable PLNG to increase storage capacity. 1 Tank can storge 1 cargo
MFs 10 worth of gas (160,000 cm). Management believes that India’s LNG
BFSI’s 1 import will increase to 27 mmt by 2025 (FY24 – 23.3 mmt) driven by
Public & Others 12 increasing India’s gas demand. Dahej terminal has 5 gas pipelines
connected to it and the evacuation capacity is ~35 mmtpa which
Relative Performance
should enable it to utilise Dahej terminal’s expanded capacity.
350
• Kochi-Bengaluru pipeline is expected to be commissioned by
300
March 2025 – Kochi terminal’s utilisation is expected to improve from
250
FY26 onwards, once GAIL commissions Kochi-Bengaluru pipeline.
200 Given its under PMO’s radar, management expects the project to be
150 commissioned on time with utmost priority. Once commissioned,
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

MRPL will start using gas for captive consumption (using fuel oil
currently) along with CGDs, which have relied on gas cascades at
Petronet LNG CNG stations. Given Kochi pipeline is connected to national gas grid,
Sensex (rebased)
management believes demand will no longer be a constraint.
Siddharth Chauhan Archit Joshi
Research Analyst Research Analyst
siddharth.chauhan@bksec.com archit.joshi@bksec.com

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• ~Rs 207 bn PDH-PP project is expected to deliver above 16% IRR – Project will be funded by a 70:30 debt-
equity mix and would take four-five years for commissioning. Management expects project tenders to
be issued October 2024 onwards. Of Rs 207 bn, Rs 160 bn is expected to be the actual cost of the project
and Rs 40 bn is provisioned for costs like Fx, interest during construction, etc. Management believes
that cold energy from LNG plants can be utilised in Ethane/Propane tanks, leading to cost savings and
synergies. ~15-20% of the capex will be spent in 1st and 4th years, respectively, for project construction,
with the remaining amount spent in the middle two years.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 383,954 354,520 260,229 431,686 598,994 527,284 563,895 552,082 6.5 2.3

EBITDA 32,935 39,895 46,995 52,523 48,558 52,065 52,453 55,349 9.6 3.1

PAT 21,554 27,697 29,494 30,054 32,399 35,362 35,637 33,553 10.4 (2.6)

Margin (%)

Gross margin 10.4 14.0 20.5 14.1 9.9 11.9 11.2 12.1 – –

EBITDA margin 8.6 11.3 18.1 12.2 8.1 9.9 9.3 10.0 – –

PAT margin 5.6 7.8 11.3 7.0 5.4 6.7 6.3 6.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 14.4 18.5 19.7 20.0 21.6 23.6 23.8 22.4 10.4 (2.6)

BV (Rs) 67.1 73.0 77.7 89.5 99.6 113.1 126.8 143.2 11.0 12.5

RoCE (%) 26.2 24.8 26.0 27.2 24.6 25.0 23.0 19.5 – –

RoA (%) 21.7 21.2 22.9 23.9 21.4 21.2 19.6 17.3 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 21.8 26.4 26.1 24.0 22.8 22.2 19.8 16.6 – –

Net profit margin 5.6 7.8 11.3 7.0 5.4 6.7 6.3 6.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 2.5 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Petronet LNG - 4QFY24 Result Update - 23 May 24.pdf

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Share Data PI Industries

Price (Rs) 3,540
Emphasis on diversifying the product portfolio
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PIIL.BO
• The company projects a 15% growth in FY25E, driven by the
Bloomberg code PI IN
commercialisation of new products. It plans to launch 8-9 products in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 6,437 the export market and 4-5 products in the domestic market.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 18.8 • One-third of these product launches will be non-agricultural
Issued shares (mn) 152 chemicals, targeting end-use industries such as semi-conductors,
Target price (Rs) 4,361 electronic chemicals and advanced polymers.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The business mix is expected to change significantly in the next three-
Absolute (3) (4) (2) five years, with the non-agricultural chemical portfolio contributing
Relative (3) (4) (20) 20-25% to the total mix.
• The pharma business will transition to a CRDMO model, with assets
Valuation Ratios
in Hyderabad converted into a research centre dedicated to this
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
segment.
EPS (Rs) 110.6 107.7 119.6
• The company plans to establish a cGMP facility in Europe, leveraging
+/- (%) 36.8 (2.6) 11.0 nearshoring advantages and strong interest in advanced-stage
PER (x) 32.0 32.9 29.6 molecule inquiries.
• The upcoming quarter is expected to stabilise with strong farm gate
Price/Book (x) 6.2 6.0 5.4
demand and decreasing inventory levels.
EV/Sales (x) 6.5 5.8 5.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 22.5 19.7

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 46
FPIs 20
MFs 15
BFSI’s 9
Public & Others 9

Relative Performance
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

PI Industries*
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 28,409 33,665 45,770 52,995 64,920 76,658 88,385 102,279 22.0 15.5

EBITDA 5,764 7,178 10,122 11,424 15,421 20,147 22,702 26,239 28.4 14.1

PAT 4,102 4,566 7,383 8,438 12,295 16,815 16,374 18,180 32.6 4.0

Margin (%)

Gross margin 45.4 45.1 43.8 44.8 45.3 49.9 49.5 49.5 – –

EBITDA margin 20.3 21.3 22.1 21.6 23.8 26.3 25.7 25.7 – –

PAT margin 14.4 13.6 16.1 15.9 18.9 21.9 18.5 17.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) 0.1 (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.1) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 29.8 33.2 48.6 55.5 80.9 110.6 107.7 119.6 32.6 4.0

BV (Rs) 166.1 190.3 351.5 402.7 473.6 574.4 590.6 661.0 28.2 7.3

RoCE (%) 24.7 22.6 21.4 17.1 21.5 23.3 23.3 24.1 – –

RoA (%) 18.8 17.1 17.1 14.1 18.1 19.9 19.9 20.7 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 19.5 18.6 18.5 14.7 18.5 21.1 18.5 19.1 – –

Net profit margin 14.4 13.6 16.1 15.9 18.9 21.9 18.5 17.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/PI Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update - 23 May 24.pdf

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Share Data Piramal Enterprises

Price (Rs) 795
Moving towards retail book; legacy wholesale book to be halved
BSE Sensex 73,961 by FY25
Reuters code PIRA.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code PIEL IN Growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,140 • Luxury segment within housing segment is doing well and Micro
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.4 enterprise lending (Rs 10-20 mn turnover) in the secured lending
Issued shares (mn) 225 space is witnessing strong growth.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Regulatory impact on the unsecured side is visible as participants
Absolute (14) (13) 3 have taken foot off the accelerator. Vintage level analysis does not
Relative (14) (13) (15) indicate any imminent build-up of stress in the unsecured book.
• Legacy book has been brought down from Rs 430 bn to Rs 140 bn
Valuation Ratios
and the company has taken a 24% haircut for the same including
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
some income booked for the same. The company expects the
EPS (Rs ) 80.7 417.7 (72.8) legacy wholesale book to be around Rs 70 bn by the end of FY25.
BVPS (Rs ) 1,544 1,301 1,182 • Earlier had 23 accounts of Rs 12 bn or more but now the company does
P/E (x) 9.9 1.9 NM not have a single account of more than Rs 10 bn. Largest account
(Kanakia) is now of Rs 9 bn.
P/BV (x) 0.5 0.6 0.7
• The company has carried forward losses of Rs 100 bn which should
Major Shareholders (%)
help in creating DTA.
Promoters 46
• Overall book growth should be around 15% YoY with retail growth
FPIs 17
being higher. DHFL book is Rs 110 bn out of the total retail book of Rs
MFs 7
500 bn.
BFSI’s 7
Public & Others 23 • The company continues to evaluate the MSME, MFI and gold loan
space for inorganic acquisitions.
Relative Performance
• Target AUM mix is:
1,600
o Housing 40-45%.
1,400
1,200 o LAP 20-25%.
1,000 o Used cars 10%.
800
o Unsecured 25%.
600
Margins
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Yield should be in range of 14-14.5% with Fee income of 1.5%

Piramal Enterprises • Cost of borrowing is around 8.8%. Incremental cost of borrowing is
Sensex (rebased)
around 9.5%.
• NIMs should be in the range of 7-7.5%.
Asset quality
• SR reduction would be seen in this quarter and should continue
through the course of the year. Recoveries in SR have been at par.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The company has followed the strategy of using one-off gains to make provisions for the wholesale
legacy book and will continue to do the same going ahead and hence an impact could be seen on the
credit cost line.
• The company is carrying Rs 25 bn of provisioning on the legacy wholesale book. Shriram investments
should have Rs 8-10 bn of MTM gain which should help absorb any haircuts on the remaining
wholesale legacy book, but the management does not see an impact on net worth of the company.
Others
• Underwriting team is 560 people.
• Opex guidance of 4.6%.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY22-24)

Net Interest Income 36,290 50,460 39,710 5

Operating Expense 11,720 22,150 27,740 54
Operating Profit 24,570 28,310 11,970 (30)
PAT 19,990 99,700 (16,820) NM
Shareholder's Fund 368,369 310,591 265,571 (15)
AUM 651,850 639,890 688,450 3
Borrowings 554,510 495,828 534,842 (2)
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Rs) 81 418 (73) NM
BV (Rs) 1,544 1,301 1,182 (12)
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 3 4 2 –
NNPA 2 2 1 –
PCR 55 49 65 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data PNC Infratech

Price (Rs) 518
All eyes on asset monetisation
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PNCI.BO
• In line with its strategic objective of recycling the capital invested in
Bloomberg code PNCL IN
operating road assets to leverage its ambitious growth vision, PNC
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,592 Infratech (PNC) announced the divestment of its stake in 11/1 HAM/
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.2 BOT assets to KKR for a total equity value of Rs 29 bn, compared to an
Issued shares (mn) 257 equity investment of Rs 17.4 bn. The deal is expected to close by March
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M 2025 and is subject to certain regulatory and customary conditions
standard for a transaction of this nature.
Absolute 15 21 65
Relative 15 21 47 • The company to continue its focus on road segment, especially HAM
projects and might also look at opportunities in BOT.
Valuation Ratios
• The order book as of March 2024 stood at Rs 155 bn (~2x FY24 revenue,
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
excluding L1 of Rs 50), with the road EPC segment contributing 76% of it.
EPS (Rs) 17.5 23.8 33.1
• The total equity requirement for 23 HAM projects is Rs 31 bn of which it
+/- (%) 23.7 36.5 39.0 has already infused Rs 19. 8 bn as of March 2024. It guided for investing

PER (x) 29.0 23.6 17.0 Rs 6.4/3.3/1.5 bn in FY25/26/27 through internal accruals.
• NHAI has a bid pipeline of 150 projects worth Rs 1.5 trn. The company
PBV (x) 4.3 3.7 0.0
has identified 90+ projects worth Rs 1 trn for evaluation which consists
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 60.2
of 20/60/30 projects from EPC/HAM/BOT to be bid in FY25. The company
EV/Sales (x) 2.1 2.0 (0.2) will focus on EPC and HAM projects, for toll projects, the company will

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.1 14.6 (1.4) bid after carefully evaluating the opportunities and currently isn’t
very aggressive in bidding for BOT projects. Also, due to increased
Major Shareholders (%)
competition in the sector currently, new projects may be bid at lower
Promoters 56 margins.
FPIs 12
• PNC guided a revenue growth of 10% YoY for FY25 with an EBITDA margin
MFs 26
of 12-12.5% (versus earlier 13-13.5%). Further, order inflow is expected at
BFSI’s 1
Rs 130-150 bn of which, it has already received orders worth Rs 50 bn.
Public & Others 5

Relative Performance
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

PNC Infratech Ltd

Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-23)

Financials

Sales 30,969 48,779 49,254 63,055 70,608 76,992 20.0

EBITDA 4,573 7,643 6,766 7,872 9,539 12,774 22.8

PAT 3,249 4,603 3,619 4,478 6,115 8,498 21.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 53.7 70.6 70.9 77.3 79.7 81.4 –

EBITDA margin 14.8 15.7 13.7 12.5 13.5 16.6 –

PAT margin 10.5 9.4 7.3 7.1 8.7 11.0 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 12.7 17.9 14.1 17.5 23.8 33.1 21.2

BV (Rs) 82.5 99.3 113.4 130.2 153.6 186.4 17.7

RoCE (%) 16.3 22.7 17.5 17.7 18.9 22.3 –

RoA (%) 12.6 17.9 13.7 14.0 15.5 18.2 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 16.6 19.7 13.3 14.3 16.8 19.5 –

Net profit margin 10.5 9.4 7.3 7.1 8.7 11.0 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 –

300
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Polycab India

Price (Rs) 6,742
Demand outlook remains robust
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code METP.BO
• Polycab India is witnessing encouraging B2C demand and signs of
Bloomberg code POLYCAB IN
recovery in rural sentiments. B2B demand continues to sustain its
Market cap. (US$ mn) 12,141 growth momentum on the back of strong demand from institutional
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 55.3 clients.
Issued shares (mn) 150 • Cables business continue to grow faster than wires supported by
Target price (Rs) 6,352 robust infrastructure development activities and gradual pick-up in
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M private capex.

Absolute 19 42 97 • Market share in Cables & Wires (C&W) increased from 22-24% in FY23
Relative 19 42 79 to 25-26% in the organised market and from 15-16% in FY23 to 18-19% in
FY24.
Valuation Ratios
• In line with increasing demand for cables due to favourable capex
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
cycle and improved traction from exports market, the company has
EPS (Rs) 120.2 147.2 180.6 also raised its capital expenditure target from Rs 8-9 bn to Rs 10-11 bn
+/- (%) 40 22 23 annually for the next two-three years towards expanding capacity
across all cables.
PER (x) 55.8 45.6 37.1
• Margins in domestic cables is at 9-10%, whereas in wires it is 15-16%.
PBV (x) 12.3 10.5 8.7
Exports has higher margins than domestic wires category. Long-term
Dividend/Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 sustainable range of margins is 12-13%.
EV/Sales (x) 5.5 4.6 3.8 • Current exports contribution stands at 8%, which the company expects
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.6 31.7 25.9 to take to 10% by FY26E.
• 20% of the capex is towards EHV capacity, which is expected to be
Major Shareholders (%)
commissioned by FY26E and will likely give asset turns of 5-6x at peak
Promoters 65
utilisation.
FPIs 12
MFs 5 • Its FMEG business continues to see weak profitability due to lower
BFSI’s 2 scale and lack of operating leverage. It expects to turn profitable once
Public & Others 16 utilisation increases.
• To further accelerate growth, the company has taken certain initiatives
Relative Performance
like merging all B2C verticals under single unit for better decision-
7,800
6,800
making, improving distribution network and influencer management
5,800 marketing to increase reach.
4,800
• The management is monitoring some red flags like insufficient
3,800
2,800
utilisation, low market share which it aims to improve going ahead.
1,800 It is also making changes in its management structure by creating
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

various SBU heads and sales heads across categories.

• Polycab has made significant strides in its key strategic initiatives
Polycab India
Project Leap 2026 in the last three years like:
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

301
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o Enhance customer centricity approach to ensure competitive pricing strategy that resonates with
customers.
o Completing brand refresh by successfully transition to new brand identity and logo and intensifying
brand building efforts by increasing ad spends and promotional activities.
o Expanded brand portfolio across multiple tiers in Wires vertical ensuring comprehensive market
coverage.
o Implemented transformative measures aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and strategic
alignment.
• It will soon revise upwards in Project Leap target as it will achieve its previous target before stipulated
time of FY26.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 79,856 88,300 87,922 122,038 141,078 180,394 216,354 257,764 15.3 19.5

EBITDA 9,528 11,350 11,111 12,652 18,521 24,918 31,125 37,999 18.1 23.5

PAT 5,299 7,656 7,318 8,452 12,823 18,058 22,116 27,133 24.7 22.6

Margin (%)

Gross margin 28.5 31.5 27.1 23.3 26.5 29.0 28.0 29.0 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 11.9 12.9 12.6 10.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.7 – –

PAT margin 6.6 8.7 8.3 6.9 9.1 10.0 10.2 10.5 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 37.5 51.4 49.1 56.6 85.6 120.2 147.2 180.6 22.9 22.6

BV (Rs) 201.6 257.7 318.8 371.0 442.8 545.0 636.8 775.1 21.7 19.3

RoCE (%) 28.8 29.7 23.0 21.3 28.0 31.7 32.6 33.4 – –

RoA (%) 18.0 18.4 16.2 16.0 21.1 23.0 23.3 24.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.4 22.9 17.0 16.4 21.1 24.4 24.9 25.6 – –

Net profit margin 6.6 8.7 8.3 6.9 9.1 10.0 10.2 10.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Polycab India - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Prestige Estates Projects

Price (Rs) 1,598
Strong growth guidance...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PREG.BO
• Prestige Estates Projects (PEPL) has guided at least 25-30% pre-sales
Bloomberg code PEPL IN
growth in FY25.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 7,675
• The company has a pipeline of new launches with GDV of Rs 600 bn for
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.8 FY25, whereas it already has ongoing unsold projects worth Rs 129 bn
Issued shares (mn) 401 (1QFY25 would be soft due to the elections).
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • PEPL has projects in different geographies with strong pipeline in
Absolute 16 37 231 Hyderabad, Chennai, Bengaluru, and NCR. It recently concluded large
Relative 16 37 212 JDA transaction in Pune, whereas in Ghaziabad, project would be
launched in 1HFY25.
Valuation Ratios
• Prestige City Hyderabad clocked ~Rs 40 bn within four months of
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24P
launch.
EPS (Rs) 28.7 23.5 34.3
• Ocean Tower-1 which was launched got fully sold out, whereas Tower-2
+/- (%) (58.7) (18.1) 45.9 is awaiting approvals.
PER (x) 55.6 67.9 46.6 • The Jijamata Nagar project is 25% cleared and balance clearance
PBV (x) 7.0 6.4 4.2 is expected by 1HFY25-end. It has a total of 4,000 houses for slum
rehabilitation to be built.
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1
• In the rental portfolio, it expects rental income for office @ Rs 38 bn,
EV/Sales (x) 10.7 8.5 7.0
whereas retail @ Rs 5.8 bn by FY28. It targets for REIT of rental assets
EV/EBITDA (x) 44.6 33.7 22.2 after the assets mature. Further, it would entail yearly capex spend of
Major Shareholders (%) ~Rs 25-30 bn.

Promoters 65 • PEPL has 566 under-construction and 571 upcoming keys in the
FPIs 16 hospitality segment, which are expected to add annual revenues of
MFs 13 Rs 10.5+ bn (Prestige share).
BFSI’s 1 • In 4QFY24, the company acquired two land parcels (120 acres, of which
Public & Others 3 attributable area is 96 acres). With this, as on FY24, the company had a
Relative Performance land bank of 888 acres (economic interest of 679 acres).

2,000 • Net debt has increased to Rs 77.9 bn mainly due to higher land
payments. Consequently, net D/E increased to 0.66x (0.54x in FY23),
1,500
which is higher than the management’s target of <0.5x. Nonetheless,
1,000
the management expects this to fall below its target level as revenue
500
recognition and equity accretion picks-up in the coming quarters.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Prestige Estates Projects

Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 CAGR (%)
(FY19-23)

Financials

Sales 51,719 81,248 72,419 63,895 83,150 12.6

EBITDA 14,538 23,560 19,333 15,170 20,863 9.5
PAT 4,156 4,031 27,823 11,500 9,418 22.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 57.7 48.6 42.2 49.2 51.0 –

EBITDA margin 28.1 29.0 26.7 23.7 25.1 –
PAT margin 8.0 5.0 38.4 18.0 11.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 –

EPS (Rs) 10.4 10.1 69.4 28.7 23.5 22.7
BV (Rs) 105.4 133.7 199.6 226.9 248.8 23.9
RoCE (%) 10.0 13.0 10.8 8.4 10.4 –
RoA (%) 5.2 6.2 5.8 4.6 5.7 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 9.3 8.4 41.6 13.5 9.9 –

Net profit margin 8.0 5.0 38.4 18.0 11.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 5.3 6.1 4.1 3.3 3.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Prince Pipes and Fittings

Price (Rs) 610
Diversifying with focus on market share...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PRCE.BO
• Prince Pipes and Fittings (PP&F) has continued its guidance of double-
Bloomberg code PRINCPIP IN
digit volume growth and EBITDA margin guidance of ~12-14% over the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 808 medium-term. This guidance is largely in line with its strategic push
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.0 for higher volumes, as part of an effort to capture greater market
Issued shares (mn) 111 share.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • To support this strategy, the company plans to fortify its distribution
Absolute (5) 6 (3) channels and expand its dealer network. This is planned to be

Relative (5) 6 (22) achieved by offering discounts to attract prominent dealers across
the country, thereby enhancing its market penetration.
Valuation Ratios
• The company is confident of accelerating volumes in the Bathware
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
segment with acquisition of Aquel brand and establishment of a
EPS (Rs) 22.6 11.0 16.5 Pan-India distribution network which will help in increasing its brand
+/- (%) 12.4 (51.3) 50.3 presence.

PER (x) 27.3 55.9 37.2 • Additionally, the Water Tank segment will remain a focal point over
the medium term, with active efforts underway to boost volumes.
PBV (x) 5.4 5.0 4.4
• The increased capital expenditure in the Bihar facility is a strategic
Div./Yield (%) 18.6 0.0 0.0
response to the faster-than-anticipated growth in the Eastern
EV/Sales (x) 2.6 2.5 2.7 region and the robust demand from this geography. This expansion

EV/EBITDA (x) 16.5 26.5 22.1 is expected to augment PP&F’s existing capacity, thereby facilitating
higher volume outputs and reinforcing market position.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The company is planning to introduce new products within its
Promoters 61
existing portfolio to address market gaps and capture additional
FPIs 5
market share.
MFs 16
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 15

Relative Performance
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Prince Pipes & Fittings

Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 15,719 16,357 20,715 26,568 27,109 25,688 10.3

EBITDA 1,841 2,288 3,616 4,156 2,503 3,074 10.8
PAT 800 1,135 2,235 2,499 1,205 1,825 17.9
Margin (%)

Gross margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 29.2 –

EBITDA margin 11.7 14.0 17.5 15.6 9.2 12.0 –
PAT margin 5.1 6.9 10.8 9.4 4.4 7.1 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 –

EPS (Rs) 9.1 10.2 20.2 22.6 11.0 16.5 12.6
BV (Rs) 44.1 76.1 94.8 114.4 123.4 139.7 25.9
RoCE (%) 20.6 19.9 28.2 27.3 12.3 15.0 –
RoA (%) – – – – – 17.2 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 23.0 18.2 23.6 21.6 9.2 11.8 –

Net profit margin 5.1 6.9 10.8 9.4 4.4 7.1 –
Asset turnover (x) – – – – – 2.4 –
Leverage factor (x) – – – – – 0.7 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Privi Speciality Chemicals

Price (Rs) 1,169
Expect volume led growth coupled with favourable product mix
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PIVI.BO
• The company is aiming for volume growth of 15-18% and value growth
Bloomberg code PRIVISCL IN
of 10-12% for FY25 with margins expected to be in the 18-20% range
Market cap. (US$ mn) 547 and upwards Rs 1.25 bn of PAT.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.5 • Privi Specialty Chemicals announced a joint venture with Givaudan
Issued shares (mn) 39 with the capex for the project pegged at Rs 1.5 bn and commissioning
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M expected in 3QFY25. The project is expected to derive sales of Rs 1.5
Absolute (7) (1) 5 bn and will manufacture 40 products exclusively for Givaudan.

Relative (7) (1) (14) • Current debt on books stands at Rs 9.0 bn, with a target debt-to-
equity ratio of 1.05x. Privi aims to maintain working capital of 120-125
Valuation Ratios
days and has guided for 135 days in FY25.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• 60% of the company’s business is contract-based (with large FMCG
EPS (Rs) 23.9 5.4 24.4
companies and fragrance houses) with prices sealed before the
+/- (%) (6.3) (77.2) 348.5 start of the year.

PER (x) 48.9 215.0 47.9 • Management have seen spot market prices to improve in the pine-
based chemicals segment on account of limited supply from LatAm
Price/Book (x) 5.6 5.5 4.9
and China.
EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.5 3.1
• The company has a 10% global share in pine-based chemicals with 7
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.0 30.1 16.9 of its products having 30-35% market share globally.
Major Shareholders (%) • Privi is considering capex for expansion on important products like
Promoters 74 Dihydromyrcenol, Amber Fleur, and capacity expansion of CST.
FPIs 1 • The company is contemplating fundraising plans for high value
MFs 3 dream projects like menthol and peppermint oil.
Public & Others 22

Relative Performance
3,100
2,600
2,100
1,600
1,100
600
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Privi Speciality Chemicals

Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 13,410 13,241 12,766 14,037 16,078 17,522 5.5

EBITDA 2,127 2,172 2,076 1,938 1,859 3,250 8.8

PAT 886 1,157 998 935 213 954 1.5

Margin (%)

Gross margin 38.3 39.3 41.2 40.8 40.2 42.4 –

EBITDA margin 15.9 16.4 16.3 13.8 11.6 18.5 –

PAT margin 6.6 8.7 7.8 6.7 1.3 5.4 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 –

EPS (Rs) 22.7 29.6 25.6 23.9 5.4 24.4 –

BV (Rs) 147.4 156.7 185.0 207.9 212.2 236.6 –

RoCE (%) 31.9 17.0 13.2 10.0 5.3 11.6 –

RoA (%) 24.1 13.3 10.7 8.2 4.3 9.6 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 30.8 19.5 15.0 12.2 2.6 10.9 –

Net profit margin 6.6 8.7 7.8 6.7 1.3 5.4 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.7 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Protean eGov Technologies

Price (Rs) 1,131
Staring at transformative opportunities
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PROO.BO
• Protean eGov Technologies has been instrumental in the digital India
Bloomberg code PROTEAN IN
revolution even before the ubiquitous nature of consumer digital
Market cap. (US$ mn) 548 penetration. Its existing propositions for tax, social security and
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.7 digital identity are all scaled up at mammoth levels. This provides a
Issued shares (mn) 40 very solid cash cow business.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The Indian digital stack is being built on open standards and protocols;
Absolute (13) 2 0 the company continues to be a leading contributor. Presence within

Relative (13) 2 (18) ONDC and UIDAI are testament to the same.
• There remain mass use cases for building IPs at scale in diverse
Valuation Ratios
spectrum of verticals. Verticals like e-commerce, transport, etc. are
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
under the aegis of ONDC. Verticals like healthcare, agriculture and
EPS (Rs) 36.5 26.3 23.5 education come under the umbrella of ONEST.
+/- (%) 64.2 (28.1) (10.4) • The vast experience of critical data and process management is a

PER (x) 30.9 43.0 48.0 key determinant for its future PoCs and right to win new contracts in
uncertain spaces. This is a large optionality not fully tapped.
PBV (x) 5.8 5.3 4.9
• Presence on the infra side of digitisation enables managing large
Div./Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
central databases. This has enabled foray into information security
EV/Sales (x) 6.2 6.1 5.1 advisory and cloud services.

EV/EBITDA (x) 34.8 38.5 50.5 • We beleive that Protean could act as a catalyst for multiple new
business models to commence. The company stands to benefit
Major Shareholders (%)
with such IPs and stacks being used by smaller and diffferentaited
FPIs 10
businesses. These benefits will start to accrue in the next 12-24
MFs 1
months, cementing the company’s growth momentum in additon to
BFSI’s 44
the cash cow businesses.
Public & Others 46
• This rock-solid foundation and the Indian digital stack is also well
Relative Performance
poised to be taken at global level. These use cases are relevant in
1,800 every geography for similar purposes; and thus can be replicated
1,600
with relative ease. Targets markets are the continent of Africa and
1,400
certain Asian nations; where DPIs building is in very early stage.
1,200
1,000 • New business lines chased this year were in agriculture and
800 education. Creating an agri stack with updated granular information
Nov-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

can be useful for plethora of ancillary business lines in addition to

significantly improving living standards. We beleive such stacks
Protean eGov Technologies can be monetized with insurance companies, NBFCs, seed and soil
Sensex (rebased) related corporations etc. among a few.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%) (FY21-24)

Financials

Sales 6,031 6,909 7,422 8,820 13.5

EBITDA 848 1,238 1,180 894 1.8
PAT 893 1,476 1,062 952 2.1
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 14.1 17.9 15.9 10.1 –

PAT margin 14.8 21.4 14.3 10.8 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.3) (0.0) (0.1) –

EPS (Rs) 22.3 36.5 26.3 23.5 –
BV (Rs) 166.3 195.2 212.1 229.0 –
RoCE (%) 33.9 24.8 16.7 14.1 –
RoA (%) 27.1 20.1 13.5 11.3 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 26.8 20.3 12.9 10.7 –

Net profit margin 14.8 21.4 14.3 10.8 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Prudent Corporate Advisory Services

Price (Rs) 1,650
Long-term vision on track
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PRUE.BO
• Prudent Corporate Advisory Services (Prudent) has a yield of 88-89
Bloomberg code PRUDENT IN
bps on the cumulative book; around 62-65% of it is passed to the MFDs
Market cap. (US$ mn) 819 (~55-56 bps).
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.6 • Prudent provides platform (Fundzbazaar, Partner desk) and an on-
Issued shares (mn) 41 ground team of 350 people to support MFDs.
Target price (Rs) 1,838 • Every 5th MFD is empanelled with Prudent. The top 2 NDs have around
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M 50k active MFDs versus around 140k for the whole industry.
Absolute 7 21 81 • 16 branches will be added in the current year. Apart from West India,
Relative 7 21 63 Prudent is also doing well in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Prudent
remains under-penetrated in South India.
Valuation Ratios
• The strategic long-term vision remains to operate similarly for the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
company and position itself as a wealth manager for the masses
EPS (Rs) 33.5 43.7 53.7
rather than only the MF provider for the masses. Also, continuously
P/E 49.2 37.7 30.7 improve the capability of our advisors.
BVPS (Rs) 116.3 160.0 213.7

P/B 14.2 10.3 7.7

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 58
FPIs 4
MFs 16
Public & Others 22

Relative Performance
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Oct-22
Jan-23
Aug-22

Jul-23
May-22

Sep-23

Mar-24
May-24
Apr-23

Dec-23

Prudent Corp. Advisory Servi.

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Revenue from operations 2,220 2,348 2,865 4,508 6,113 8,051 10,160 11,978 36 22

Other Income 31 14 84 78 75 196 280 341 94 32

Total Income 2,251 2,362 2,949 4,586 6,189 8,247 10,440 12,319 37 22

Employee benefits 432 489 555 693 833 928 1,079 1,220 17 15

Other Expenses 166 176 140 199 295 837 966 1,097 48 14

Total Expenses 1,945 1,988 2,344 3,515 4,621 6,389 8,023 9,346 34 21

Operating profit 382 454 686 1,205 1,809 2,107 2,680 3,246 47 24

PAT 210 279 453 803 1,167 1,388 1,809 2,224 49 27

Shareholder’s funds 831 1,125 1,576 2,376 3,500 4,814 6,622 8,846 44 36

AAUM (Rs bn) 190 226 257 398 529 696 911 1,075 32 24

Commission and Fee Income from - mix (%)

Distribution of Mutual 90.9 85.3 83.3 85.9 82.9 79.8 80.6 80.5 – –
Fund Products
Distribution of 0.2 7.4 9.5 8.2 11.7 13.9 12.5 12.7 – –
Insurance Products
Stock Broking and Allied 7.6 6.0 5.9 4.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 – –
Services
Other Financial and 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.4 3.8 3.9 – –
Non-Financial Products
Ratio (x)
EPS (Rs) 5.1 6.7 10.9 19.4 28.2 33.5 43.7 53.7 49 27

P/E 314.3 237.2 145.9 82.2 56.6 49.2 37.7 30.7 – –

BVPS (Rs) 20.1 27.2 38.1 57.4 84.5 116.3 160.0 213.7 44 36s

P/B 79.5 58.7 41.9 27.8 18.9 14.2 10.3 7.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Prudent Corporate Advisory Services - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 07 May 24.pdf

312
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Punjab National Bank

Price (Rs) 129
Bank to focus on strong growth, asset quality and digital
BSE Sensex 73,961 transformation
Reuters code PNBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code PNB IN We met the CEO & MD – Mr Atul Kumar Goel of Punjab National Bank at
Market cap. (US$ mn) 17,084 our Trinity Conference. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 87.5 Guidance FY25
Issued shares (mn) 11,011 • Credit growth to be at 11-12% YoY.
Target price (Rs) 121 • Deposit growth at 9-10% YoY.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • RAM to be increased to 60% in two-three years versus 55% currently.
Absolute (8) 6 150
• The bank has O/s TWO pool of Rs 900 bn and GNPA of Rs 550 bn and the
Relative (8) 6 131 bank expects recovery of ~Rs 180 bn in FY25.
Valuation Ratios • GNPA below 5% and NNPA at 0.5%.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Credit cost to be less than 1%.
Adj. EPS (Rs) 7.5 14.9 16.3 CASA mobilisation

BVPS (Rs) 89.2 104.3 120.7 • The liquidity is not the issue, and the bank wants to focus on CASA
mobilisation.
Adj. Book 85.3 102.2 118.9
NAV/share (Rs) • The bank opened 10 mn savings account in FY24 as against 8 mn in

PER (x) 17.3 8.7 7.9 the last year.

• The bank has the same day turnaround time (TAT) for account opening
Price/Book (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1
now.
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1
• The bank believes all the players in the industry are facing the problem
Div. Yield (%) 1.2 3.5 2.7 in terms of CASA growth as the return in other instruments are higher.
Major Shareholders (%) Asset quality and recovery
Promoters 73 • Asset quality improvement led by:
FPIs 5
o Branch not having any power in disbursing the loan which are
MFs 3
directed to processing centre for more than Rs 1 mn loans.
BFSI’s 9
o Monitoring being done by the professionals in the processing
Public & Others 10
centre.
Relative Performance
o Linkage of accounts of savings and loan.
160
140 o Mobile app linked to bureau for score and behavioural data.
120
o Corporate mindset changing to not go under insolvency and
100
80 burrowing cautiously; this may also be the reason that this book
60
is not growing.
40
20 • In the newly underwritten loan portfolio, the bank has sanctioned Rs
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

7.87 trn and disbursed Rs 7.01 trn. The NPA in this new book stands at
0.25%. Segmental NPA in this new book stands at Agri – 0.38%, MSME –
Punjab National Bank
1.42%, Retail – 0.21%, while it is negligible in the corporate and others.
Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

313
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The bank made changes in pre-approved personal loan digital underwriting process in which loans up
to 10 lakhs does not have many filters other than CIBIL leading to good growth from Rs 520 mn in June
2022 to Rs 45 bn currently. The delinquency trends are also low here.
• The bank is focusing on having more recovery from single borrower even if the time taken to get that is
higher; the bank doesn’t want a haircut. The bank has therefore given a conservative guidance in terms
of recovery.
Capital raise
• The bank does not require capital raise for the growth guidance given currently but the board has
approved QIP of Rs 75 bn, AT-1 of Rs 70 bn and Tier-2 of Rs 30 bn in FY25, which in total comes to Rs 175 bn.
Miscellaneous
• Mobile app rating has improved to 4.3 from 2.3 as the bank has put a lot of efforts to make it seamless.
• The bank management holds meeting every Monday with senior managers across the regions to know
the problems of the bank and resolve them in addition to the quarterly meeting.
• The credit card of the bank is available in 60 seconds.
• The bank has done HR transformation to hire the best employees and it keeps training them regularly.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 171,563 260,392 304,770 286,945 344,916 400,831 475,216 519,862 18.5 13.9
Operating Expense 115,385 232,134 203,087 202,526 241,054 285,358 306,143 336,507 19.9 8.6
Operating Profit 129,952 178,939 229,801 207,618 225,288 249,308 316,215 368,091 13.9 21.5
PAT (99,755) (61,848) 20,216 34,570 25,072 82,446 170,031 195,302 na 53.9
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 447,871 858,047 909,373 954,869 998,557 1,064,766 1,234,796 1,430,098 18.9 15.9
Advances 4,582,492 6,973,097 6,742,301 7,281,857 8,308,340 9,344,306 10,521,431 11,675,637 15.3 11.8
Deposits 6,760,301 10,715,692 11,063,325 11,462,184 12,811,631 13,697,128 15,033,598 16,458,514 15.2 9.6
Total Assets 7,749,495 12,521,026 12,606,326 13,148,050 14,618,314 15,618,350 17,153,966 18,834,906 15.0 9.8
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS (31) 1 2 3 2 7 15 18 na 53.7
BV 89 84 80 80 83 89 105 123 (0.1) 17.3
ABV 47 57 56 60 70 85 103 121 12.6 19.0
Return Ratios (%)
ROA (1.3) (0.8) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1
ROE (25.4) (13.9) 2.5 4.0 2.8 8.7 15.9 15.6
Margins (%)
NIMs 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 15.5 13.8 14.1 11.8 8.7 5.7 4.2 3.4
NNPA 6.6 5.5 5.7 4.8 2.7 0.7 0.3 0.3
PCR 61.7 63.6 63.1 62.2 70.8 87.9 92.6 92.2
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 7.5 10.0 11.5 11.7 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.4
Total cap. adequacy 9.7 12.3 14.3 14.5 15.5 16.0 16.1 16.8

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Punjab National Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Radico Khaitan

Price (Rs) 1,577
Focus on premiumisation-driven volume growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code RADC.BO
Growth outlook
Bloomberg code RDCK IN
• In the Popular segment, growth is plateauing. Industry as well as
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,527
Radico Khaitan’s (RDCK) focus is on premiumisation. RDCKs P&A
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.2 segment has been growing in the high teens compared to the
Issued shares (mn) 134 industry growth of 8-10%.
Target price (Rs) 2,070 • For FY25, the company expects blended volume growth of 8-10%, with
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M P&A at 15-18% and Popular at mid-single digit.
Absolute (10) 0 35 • Price hikes added ~200 bps to topline growth in FY24. Price hikes in
Relative (10) 0 17 1QFY25 so far have been a bit of hit and miss. Some price hikes should
come through after the general elections.
Valuation Ratios
• Overall, topline is expected to grow at 15-16% in FY25.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
Margin outlook
EPS (Rs) 19.1 31.5 45.7
• Input cost inflation has dented gross margin by ~800 bps in FY23
+/- (%) 24.8 64.6 45.1
and ~300 bps in FY24. RDCK is seeing early signs of easing in ENA and
PER (x) 82.6 50.2 34.6 glass bottle prices.
PBV (x) 8.7 7.4 6.3 • Backward integration was expected to provide a delta of Rs 12-14 per

Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 litre of ENA. However, significant inflation in grain prices has narrowed
the delta down to Rs 3-4 per litre. As grain prices stabilise, the delta is
EV/Sales (x) 5.3 4.4 3.8
expected to settle at Rs 8-9 per litre.
EV/EBITDA (x) 43.0 30.0 22.3
• Assuming ENA and glass bottle prices stabilise from here, RDCK
Major Shareholders (%) expects the product mix change (premiumisation) to provide a
Promoters 40 benefit of 120-150 bps to the EBITDA margin. The company expects to
FPIs 19 reach an EBITDA margin of ~15-16% in FY26.
MFs 19 Country Liquor (CL)
BFSI’s 6
• Uttar Pradesh is a 90-100 mn case CL market and RDCK has been in
Public & Others 16
this market for over 30 years.
Relative Performance • Uttar Pradesh government has migrated two-thirds of the Country
1,900 Liquor (CL) market to grain-based Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) from
1,700 the erstwhile molasses-based ENA.
1,500
1,300 • RDCK does not intend to vacate the CL segment. Despite margins
1,100 being very thin, the migration towards grain ENA and narrowing price
900 gap provides considerable opportunities to up trade CL consumers
700
to economy Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL).
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Radico Khaitan
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR(%) CAGR(%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 20,969 24,270 24,181 28,680 31,428 41,185 48,391 55,490 14.5 16.1
EBITDA 3,503 3,718 4,089 4,022 3,584 5,061 7,136 9,452 7.6 36.7
PAT 1,881 2,468 2,706 2,522 2,044 2,558 4,210 6,107 6.3 54.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 51.6 48.3 50.3 45.0 41.8 42.5 43.5 45.0 – –

EBITDA margin 16.7 15.3 16.9 14.0 11.4 12.3 14.7 17.0 – –

PAT margin 9.0 10.2 11.2 8.8 6.5 6.2 8.7 11.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 (0.0) – –

EPS (Rs) 14.1 18.5 20.3 18.9 15.3 19.1 31.5 45.7 – –

BV (Rs) 98.6 113.4 131.8 148.5 165.5 182.4 212.2 252.6 – –

RoCE (Rs) 17.6 17.3 18.1 15.8 11.2 12.5 17.5 22.7 – –

RoA (Rs) 14.2 14.0 14.6 12.9 9.2 10.3 13.9 17.6 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 15.3 17.5 16.5 13.5 9.8 11.0 16.0 19.6 – –

Net profit margin 9.0 10.2 11.2 8.8 6.5 6.2 8.7 11.0 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Radico Khaitan - 4QFY24 Result Update - 16 May 24.pdf

316
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Rajratan Global Wire

Price (Rs) 525
Poised for sustained growth...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code RAJR.BO
• Rajratan Global Wire (RGW) has grown its volumes by 16% in FY24.
Bloomberg code RGW IN
However, revenue has remained flat due to lower realisations. Drop
Market cap. (US$ mn) 320 in realisations was due to fall in steel prices and also drop in the
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.6 company’s bead wire prices.
Issued shares (mn) 51 • In India, import of cheap Chinese quality (which was against the
Target price (Rs) 641 quality control order by the government) was witnessed in January
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M and February 2024. However, the government has taken effective

Absolute (16) (16) (31) steps to curb those imports – they have fallen sharply in March 2024.
The company is optimistic about sequential reduction in Chinese
Relative (16) (17) (50)
imports in India in FY25.
Valuation Ratios
• In India, EBITDA margins have improved sequentially due to better
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
volumes and cost control measures.
EPS (Rs) 14.2 17.2 25.6 • In Thailand, in order to maintain market share in a challenging
Change (%) (28.3) 21.7 48.5 macroeconomic condition, the company has sold more products to
Chinese customers at low realisations. However, in FY25, the company
PER (x) 37.2 30.5 20.6
will move towards customers that provide better realisations.
PBV (x) 5.4 4.7 3.9
• Chennai investment is complete wherein the company has already
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 started trial runs and will start commercial production in 1QFY25.
EV/Sales (x) 3.2 2.7 2.1 • RGW has already spent Rs 2.3 bn in Chennai. The company plans
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.3 17.9 13.5 to invest a total of Rs 3.0 bn for 60k tonne capacity. Expected capex
turnover from this investment at current prices is 2x, i.e. Rs 6.0 bn at full
Major Shareholders (%)
capacities.
Promoters 65
• The company is expecting to sell 75k tonnes from India (60k tonnes
FPIs 1
from Pithampur and 15k tonnes from Chennai) and 50k tonnes from
MFs 8
Thailand in FY25.
Public & Others 26
• The main raw material supplier for RGW is JSW Steel – 80% of raw
Relative Performance
material is being sourced from JSW Vijayanagar plant.
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Rajratan Global Wire

Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

317
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 4,929 4,802 5,465 8,929 8,954 8,905 10,685 12,822 12.6 20.0
EBITDA 524 680 921 1,816 1,620 1,277 1,592 2,039 19.5 26.4
PAT 267 330 531 1,243 1,001 718 875 1,299 21.9 34.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 32.9 38.9 38.4 39.9 38.5 34.7 35.5 36.5 – –

EBITDA margin 10.6 14.2 16.9 20.3 18.1 14.3 14.9 15.9 – –

PAT margin 5.4 6.9 9.7 13.9 11.2 8.1 8.2 10.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 5.3 6.5 10.5 24.5 19.7 14.2 17.2 25.6 21.9 34.5
BV (Rs) 28.1 34.2 44.7 67.3 86.7 97.2 111.9 134.5 28.2 17.7
RoCE (%) 17.6 18.4 22.4 38.8 26.5 17.2 18.0 22.7 – –

RoA (%) 15.1 16.1 19.5 31.8 21.7 14.5 15.2 18.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 21.0 20.2 26.6 43.8 25.7 15.4 16.5 20.8 – –

Net profit margin 5.4 6.9 9.7 13.9 11.2 8.1 8.2 10.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Rajratan Global Wire - 4QFY24 Result Update - 22 Apr
24.pdf

318
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Rallis India

Price (Rs) 257
Outlook remains subdued
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code RALL.BO
• Capex cycle was completed in FY23, with FY24 seeing more of the
Bloomberg code RALI IN
residual capex for MPP and sustenance capex. The company sees
Market cap. (US$ mn) 599 further investments to be directed towards R&D and enhancing
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.6 customer connect.
Issued shares (mn) 194 • Management guided that utilisations for Pendimethalin are better,
Target price (Rs) 165 while for Metribuzin and Hexaconazole remain lower.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The B2B business is largely relying on 4 molecules. The company
Absolute (4) 4 35 plans to introduce new products as there remains risk of Acephate
Relative (4) 3 17 and Metribuzin being phased out.
• Products launched in FY24 have received an encouraging response,
Valuation Ratios
the company is positive on Clasto scaling up sizeably.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The CDMO business is expected to turnaround in the coming three
EPS (Rs) 7.6 9.1 11.0
years, while the seeds business has just broken-even.
+/- (%) 115.0 20.2 21.2 • The new CEO’s strategy is focussed on connecting with farmers and
PER (x) 34.1 28.3 23.4 increasing its on-ground presence by catering to 2 lakh villages in
India over the next five years.
Price/Book (x) 2.7 2.6 2.4
• Rallis India plans to grow its crop nutrition segment going ahead.
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4
Currently, this business contributes Rs 1.75 bn.
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.6 13.9 11.9

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 55
FPIs 9
MFs 12
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 23

Relative Performance
350

300

250

200

150
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Rallis India
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 19,840 22,518 24,294 26,039 29,670 26,480 30,244 34,552 5.9 14.2

EBITDA 2,409 2,593 3,229 2,741 2,183 3,110 3,489 4,064 5.2 14.3

PAT 1,554 1,734 2,191 1,643 684 1,470 1,767 2,141 (1.1) 20.7

Margin (%)

Gross margin 40.9 38.3 39.3 37.6 34.5 40.4 40.0 40.0 – –

EBITDA margin 12.1 11.5 13.3 10.5 7.4 11.7 11.5 11.8 – –

PAT margin 7.8 7.7 9.0 6.3 2.3 5.6 5.8 6.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)

EPS (Rs) 8.0 8.9 11.3 8.4 3.5 7.6 9.1 11.0 (1.1) 20.7

BV (Rs) 66.1 72.5 81.8 87.2 88.9 94.0 99.6 106.7 7.3 6.5

RoCE (%) 16.7 15.7 18.4 12.8 7.4 10.8 11.8 13.5 – –

RoA (%) 10.8 10.0 11.9 8.3 4.9 7.3 7.9 8.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 12.5 12.9 14.6 10.0 4.0 8.3 9.4 10.7 – –

Net profit margin 7.8 7.7 9.0 6.3 2.3 5.6 5.8 6.2 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Rallis India - 4QFY24 Result Update - 23 Apr 24.pdf

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Share Data RateGain Travel Technologies

Price (Rs) 699
A differentiated tech play
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code RATE.BO
• RateGain Travel Technologies (RATEGAIN) predominately operates in
Bloomberg code RATEGAIN IN
the front office segment having global tech spend size of US$ 7.5 bn.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 987 Currently, with a revenue size of Rs 9,570 mn, the company has huge
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.8 growth runway to capture its addressable market.
Issued shares (mn) 118 • The management envisions revenues to double over the next three
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M years with a combination of organic and inorganic means. This would
Absolute 0 (14) 85 be accompanied with steady improvement of margins.

Relative 0 (14) 67 • The SaaS business allows for high operating leverage and thus margin
expansion. The current pieces of the puzzle allow for gradual margins
Valuation Ratios
improvements to 25%.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The overall organic business growth will be equally driven by all three
EPS (Rs) 0.8 5.8 12.3
segments with a total pipeline of Rs 4.9 bn. The company aims to focus
+/- (%) – 630.6 112.6 on building strong customer relationships with low churn.

PER (x) 879.6 120.4 56.6 • With a cash balance of ~Rs 10 bn on the books, the company is open to
M&A opportunities. They have exhibited stellar inorganic integration of
PBV (x) 13.3 11.6 5.7
Adara and would always err on the side of caution rather than make
EV/Sales (x) 21.4 14.0 8.0
quick acquisitions. Valuations, amongst others, is indeed a make-or-
EV/EBITDA (x) 256.8 93.5 40.5 break criterion. We concur with this stance.

Major Shareholders (%) • The KPIs sought in M&A deals include IRR to the north of 20% and a

Promoters 51
payback period of five to seven years.
FPIs 9 • Further promoter equity dilution will be prudent and RATEGAIN has
MFs 15 enough capabilities to grow its internal accruals to support M&A
BFSI’s 4 opportunities in the future.
Public & Others 21
• For driving synergies from its recently acquired Adara business, the
Relative Performance management is undertaking unification of the platform with its

1,000
existing Martech offerings to combine the entire bundle under Paid
900 Digital Media offering with performance across various channels.
800
700 • The nature of the Adara business includes combination of subscriptions
600
500 as well as transaction-based revenues. Adara Media revenue is
400
300 transaction based while data revenue is subscription based.
200
• Gen AI adoption by travel brands is at forefront of improving online
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

experience, thus RATEGAIN has adopted certain use cases of AI for

more efficient data analysis and handling of increased volumes.
Rategain Travel…
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 2,616 3,987 2,508 3,666 5,651 9,570 29.6

EBITDA 218 (250) 62 306 847 1,897 54.2
PAT 110 (201) (286) 94 684 1,454 67.5
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 8.3 (6.3) 2.5 8.3 15.0 19.8 –

PAT margin 4.2 (5.0) (11.4) 2.6 12.1 15.2 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) 0.2 (0.3) (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) –

EPS (Rs) 0.9 (1.7) (2.4) 0.8 5.8 12.3 –
BV (Rs) 12.2 11.7 20.8 52.6 60.2 123.2 –
RoCE (%) 13.2 (3.7) (5.1) 3.4 9.8 17.0 –
RoA (%) 8.9 (2.6) (3.9) 2.8 8.0 14.2 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 15.4 (14.3) (14.9) 2.2 10.3 13.5 –

Net profit margin 4.2 (5.0) (11.4) 2.6 12.1 15.2 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 –

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Share Data Ratnamani Metals & Tubes

Price (Rs) 3,404
Demand from water segment remains encouraging…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code RMT.BO
• Current order book stands at Rs 24.0 bn split 70:30 between Stainless
Bloomberg code RMT IN
Steel and Carbon Steel pipes. Of the 70%, 20-25% of the order book is
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,860 catering to water sector.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.7 • Domestic oil and pipe transmission and City Gas Distribution demand
Issued shares (mn) 70 is muted currently and yet to show signs of pick-up; however, Water
Target price (Rs) 3,757 line pipes continue to show encouraging demand.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • By FY26-27, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes (RMT) expects good demand
Absolute 8 12 47 as many projects are being announced simultaneously in export
Relative 8 12 29 markets. India being close to these nations will help the company in
negotiating good terms with these countries.
Valuation Ratios
• The company is looking into a new expansion project of circular saw
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
pipes.
EPS (Rs.) 88.9 98.9 116.0
• In Stainless Steel segment, the company is planning new products.
Change (%) 22.0 11.3 17.3 • RMT guided topline growth of Rs 60.0 bn in FY25 at consolidated levels.
PER (x) 39.0 35.0 29.9 • In Ravi Technoforge (RTL), the company targets Rs 3.1-3.3 bn is revenue
PBV (x) 7.7 6.6 5.5 in FY25 and Rs 4.0 bn in FY26.

Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 • RMT expects standalone revenue to be ~Rs 55.0 bn in FY25 and is
expected to reach Rs 70.0 bn in two-three years.
EV/Sales (x) 4.8 4.1 3.7
• Capacities in stainless steel segment is increasing in industry. But
EV/EBITDA (x) 26.9 24.4 20.7
the company is neutral to these expansions as RMT manufactures
Major Shareholders (%) through extrusion. But new capacities coming from piercing. Hence,
Promoters 60 the company is not concerned about higher capacities.
FPIs 13 • Capacity utilisation is at 60-70% on average for both Stainless Steel
MFs 16 and Carbon Steel pipes.
Public & Others 11
• Water segment has lower margins than Oil & Gas (O&G) segment.
Relative Performance The company expects major contribution from water segment in line
4,200 pipes for FY25.
3,700
3,200
2,700
2,200
1,700
1,200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes

Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 27,549 25,831 22,981 31,388 44,744 50,591 59,040 65,089 12.9 13.4

EBITDA 4,065 4,240 3,997 4,948 7,754 8,971 9,919 11,586 17.2 13.6

PAT 2,529 3,076 2,759 3,226 5,105 6,228 6,931 8,128 19.8 14.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 30.9 34.3 36.0 33.0 34.2 34.2 33.5 34.5 – –

EBITDA margin 14.8 16.4 17.4 15.8 17.3 17.7 16.8 17.8 – –

PAT margin 9.2 11.9 12.0 10.3 11.4 12.3 11.7 12.5 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.0) (0.2) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 36.1 43.9 39.4 46.0 72.8 88.9 98.9 116.0 19.8 14.2

BV (Rs) 217.3 243.8 283.4 320.8 371.5 448.1 528.9 624.9 15.6 18.1

RoCE (%) 25.2 23.5 18.2 19.3 26.2 26.3 25.1 25.7 – –

RoA (%) 20.3 18.6 15.0 16.2 21.5 22.4 22.1 22.7 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.9 19.0 14.9 15.2 21.0 21.7 20.2 20.1 – –

Net profit margin 9.2 11.9 12.0 10.3 11.4 12.3 11.7 12.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Ratnamani Metals & Tubes - 4QFY24 Result Update - 17
May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data RBL Bank

Price (Rs) 246
Renewed growth path driven by MFI & credit cards and strong
BSE Sensex 73,961 margins
Reuters code RATB.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code RBK IN Guidance and forward-looking approach
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,784 • Margins will expand in FY25E from current levels.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 30.7 • Advances growth to be at 18-20% YoY in FY25E.
Issued shares (mn) 606
• Asset quality and profitability would be the focus area going ahead.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• RoA to be at 1.4-1.5% and RoE to be 11-12% in two years.
Absolute (6) (6) 52
• The credit cost target is at 2% for FY25E.
Relative (6) (6) 33
• The contingent provision would be at 1% on cards and MFI book, which
Valuation Ratios would be ~Rs 3 bn.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 • The drivers for improvement in RoA would be driven by NIM expansion
Adj. EPS (Rs) (1.2) 14.7 19.3 and lower cost-to-income ratio.

BVPS (Rs) 210.5 226.4 244.5 • The book value should be at Rs 265-266 in FY25E.
On business strategy
Adj. Book 201.7 216.8 235.0
NAV/share (Rs) • Credit cards
PER (x) (197.3) 16.7 12.7 o The entire focus of the bank in FY25E would be to find ways to try
Price/Book (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 and use the cards base to do more products.
o Cross-selling would be a key area to generate fee income on credit
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0
cards and the bank will aim to reduce the cost of acquisition on
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.9 0.9
new cards.
Major Shareholders (%) o The intent has been large in the cards business due to the
FPIs 25 partnership with Bajaj and it has added other partners as well.
MFs 16 o It added 300k people to the cards business in FY24 and plans to
BFSI’s 5
add credit cards at the rate of 20 cards per hour in FY25E.
Public & Others 54
• Microfinance
Relative Performance
o The average ticket size for the MFI business is Rs 42-44k and it
350 provides only group lending and does monthly collection.
300
250 • Gold loans
200 o The average monthly business is at Rs 400 mn.
150
100 o It hired 200 loan officers along with a few sales head and guides
50 that the volumes should pick-up now in gold loans.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

o The disbursals targeted for FY25E is at Rs 30-40 bn.

• Forward looking guidance on the business segments
RBL Bank
Sensex (rebased) o The bank aims to have cards and MFI composition at 30-35%, and
other retail & corporate at 30-35% each.

Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

325
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o It aims to reduce unsecured exposure in the wholesale business and increase the cards and MFI
segment.
o The new businesses should break even in FY25E.
Deposit mobilisation strategy
• The liability franchise of the bank is driven by current account deposits and other partnership accounts.
• The bank has a large proportion of term deposits, and it offers better rates than its peers which is resulting
in a large portion of customers coming in.
• On branch banking, corporate deposits came higher in 4QFY24, though branches are working on the
granularity of deposits.
• The less than Rs 20 mn deposits were at 44% in March 2024, and aim is to get to 50% by March 2025.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(19-24)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 25,395 36,296 37,876 40,267 49,982 60,429 18.9
Operating Expense 20,420 27,883 27,546 36,220 52,852 60,550 24.3
Operating Profit 19,398 27,516 29,170 27,453 22,024 30,308 9.3
PAT 8,670 5,057 3,340 (747) 8,827 11,679 6.1
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 75,473 105,829 126,626 126,182 135,766 147,964 14.4
Advances 543,082 580,190 586,225 600,218 702,094 839,869 9.1
Deposits 583,944 578,122 731,213 790,065 848,865 1,034,936 12.1
Total Assets 803,588 889,778 1,006,506 1,062,086 1,158,762 1,384,322 11.5
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 20 11 9 (1) 15 19 (0.7)
BV 177 208 212 210 226 245 6.7
ABV 171 192 198 202 217 235 6.6
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 1.2 0.6 0.4 (0.1) 0.8 0.9
ROE 12.2 5.6 2.9 (0.6) 6.7 8.2
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.8 5.1
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 1.4 3.6 4.3 4.4 3.4 2.7
NNPA 0.7 2.0 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.7
PCR 50.6 44.3 52.3 70.4 68.1 72.7
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 12.1 15.3 16.6 16.2 15.3 14.4
Total cap. adequacy 13.5 16.4 17.5 16.8 16.9 15.8

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/RBL Bank - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 29 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Rishabh Instruments

Price (Rs) 463
Moulding the future
BSE Sensex 75410
Key highlights
Reuters code RISB.BO
• Rishabh Instruments (RI) designs, develops, and manufactures global
Bloomberg code RISHABH IN
energy efficiency solutions. Its product segments include Electrical &
Market cap. (US$ mn) 213.0 Automation, Metering Control and Protection Devices, Portable Test
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 and Measurement Instruments, and Solar String inverters.
Issued shares (mn) 38.2 • It has international presence with manufacturing units in India, Poland
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M and China, and subsidiaries in the USA and UK.
Absolute (11) (15) 0 • The company has guided revenue growth of 18% versus earlier
Relative (11) (15) (18) guidance of 20% and EBITDA margin in the range of 13-14% versus earlier
guidance of 15-18%.
Valuation Ratios
• It is looking towards price hikes in the range of 20-30%. It is bullish on
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY22 FY24
demand from Solar industry for its solar string inverters.
EPS (Rs) 13.0 13.0 10.4
• In domestic market, the company is witnessing good growth mainly
+/- (%) 38.2 0.1 (19.7) from infrastructure development and manufacturing activities
PER (x) 32.7 32.7 40.7 where is in international market, energy optimisation and industrial
automation are helping sustain growth.
PBV (x) 4.7 4.0 2.9
• Die-casting: Its high-pressure aluminium die-casting segment has a
sssssEV/Sales (x) 3.4 2.8 2.2
very stable market with customers like ABB and Siemens.
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.1 21.3 21.4
• These products are used in automotive compressors to keep engine
Major Shareholders (%) temperature low. It has 30% market share in Europe. The aluminium
Promoters 71 die-casting business in Lumel Alucast remains under pressure due
FPIs 2 to substantially higher labour rates, power price volatility, and salary
MFs 14 revisions which happened twice in FY24.
BFSI’s 1 • The company plans to execute the escalation clause to cover the
Public & Others 13
increased cost in these projects. Aluminum die casting business has
Relative Performance EBITDA margin of 16-19%, whereas solar string inverter is a low margin

650
business due to higher competition from China.
600 • RI is planning to renegotiate the terms of contracts which will lead to
550 break-even in the near future.
500
• In Aluminium die-casting, RI has 20 group customers with ABB
450
categorised as one group customer with supply to multiple countries.
400
Automotive business has two large group customers contributing 70-
Oct-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

80% of the revenue.

Rishabh Instruments Pvt • EMS: As the company has available capacities, it has taken up EMS
Sensex (rebased) business in which it is making gradual progress. This business has
gross margins of 20% and EBITDA margin of 10-12% which is dependent
on volume growth.

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• RI’s electronics business has been performing well contributing to a significant increase in margins owing
to its in-house cost optimisation efforts, and better inventory management.
• Solar string inverter: The company has started to see traction in its solar string inverter business especially
after introduction of second-generation R-Neo inverters. It is actively working on cost optimisation to
increase margins and become close competitors to Chinese made inverters.

Key numbers

(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)

(FY21-24)
Financials
Sales 3,900 4,703 5,695 6,897 20.9
EBITDA 575 730 761 712 7.4
PAT 359 496 497 399 3.6
Margin (%)
Gross margin 59.9 58.1 55.0 58.0 –
EBITDA margin 14.7 15.5 13.4 10.3 –
PAT margin 9.2 10.6 8.7 5.8 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) –
EPS (Rs) 9.4 13.0 13.0 10.4 3.6
BV (Rs) 79.1 90.6 107.0 147.6 23.1
RoCE (%) 23.7 14.4 13.4 9.5 –
RoA (%) 19.1 11.6 10.9 7.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 23.8 15.3 13.2 8.2 –
Net profit margin 9.2 10.6 8.7 5.8 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data RITES

Price (Rs) 698
Long-term outlook intact
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code RITS.BO
• The company has been facing challenging times as revenue and
Bloomberg code RITE IN
margins remain under pressure due to multiple headwinds in terms
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,010 of lower export order book and change in government policy for
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 27.0 awarding QA revenue.
Issued shares (mn) 240 • Due to lower export order, the company executed higher turnkey
Target price (Rs) 807 projects which has inherent low margins in the range of 2-3%.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • However, the company has recently won export order of US$ 111.26
Absolute 2 (11) 86 mn (~Rs 9.2 bn) for supplying 200 passenger coaches to Bangladesh
Relative 2 (11) 68 Railways.
• This will lead to higher execution of high margin export orders giving
Valuation Ratios
some relief to margins over the next few quarters. However, despite
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
export order, the company believes it will be difficult to re-instate
EPS (Rs) 19.7 25.1 30.3 margins to previous levels due to increasing competitive nature of
+/- (%) (12.5) 27.0 20.8 business in all streams.

PER (x) 35.6 28.0 23.2 • Sustainable EBITDA margins are expected to be above 20%.
• For FY25, the company aims to grow double-digit in revenue and profits
PBV (x) 5.9 5.4 4.8
on FY23 base given execution of export orders and higher consultancy
Div./Yield (%) 1.4 1.8 2.2
revenues.
EV/Sales (x) 5.3 4.3 3.6 • Rites has also started green mobility vertical given push on EVs.
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.2 15.7 12.4 The Budget announcement for developing Railway corridors and
Airports bodes well for the company as it has technical expertise and
Major Shareholders (%)
capabilities across all segments in infrastructure.
Promoters 72
FPIs 4
• Quality assurance revenue have structurally reduced by Rs 250 mn
MFs 3 per quarter due to change in awarding process of Indian Railways (IR).
BFSI’s 8 • It expects to retract to original revenue levels in the next two-three
Public & Others 13 years on the back of (1) foray to non-IR clients, (2) take international
orders for inspection and (3) introduce AI in inspection business to
Relative Performance
increase efficiency and growth in QA revenue.
900
800 • RITES has expertise across many sectors like Highways, Metros, Airports,
700
600
Roads, etc. for inspection and as its share from non-IR clients increase,
500 the revenue growth will be back on track.
400
300
200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

RITES
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

329
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 20,475 24,744 19,053 26,618 26,283 25,464 29,958 34,374 6.4 16.2
EBITDA 5,761 6,608 5,496 7,238 7,449 6,644 8,289 9,952 6.6 22.4
PAT 4,695 6,161 4,324 5,164 5,420 4,742 6,021 7,273 3.7 23.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 60.4 54.8 61.1 54.1 55.6 54.5 62.0 59.1 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 28.1 26.7 28.8 27.2 28.3 26.1 27.7 29.0 – –

PAT margin 22.9 24.9 22.7 19.4 20.6 18.6 20.1 21.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) (1.3) (1.3) (1.2) (1.2) (1.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 18.8 24.6 18.0 21.5 22.6 19.7 25.1 30.3 4.7 23.8
BV (Rs) 96.9 105.3 99.5 103.6 108.4 118.2 130.8 145.9 2.8 11.1
RoCE (%) 27.5 30.5 20.8 26.6 26.7 21.9 25.3 27.5 – –

RoA (%) 13.8 15.4 10.2 12.7 13.2 11.3 13.2 13.9 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.3 24.4 17.2 21.2 21.3 17.4 20.1 21.9 – –

Net profit margin 22.9 24.9 22.7 19.4 20.6 18.6 20.1 21.2 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Rossari Biotech

Price (Rs) 688
HPPC to continue delivering robust performance
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ROSB.BO
• Margins are expected to see a gradual improvement, with FY24 levels
Bloomberg code ROSSARI IN
serving as a new baseline and margins projected to stabilise around
Market cap. (US$ mn) 456 13% to 14% in the near-term.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.1 • Rossari Biotech anticipates 15% volume growth in FY25 based on the
Issued shares (mn) 55 current order book and customer inquiries with additional capacities
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M expected to come online by 1HFY25.
Absolute (8) (8) (6) • Working capital days have risen due to longer payment cycles in
Relative (8) (8) (24) the agro segment as well as increased inventory on account of the
upcoming agro season and a key supplier shutting down its plant.
Valuation Ratios
Aim to stabilise working capital at around 90 days.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Agrochemicals have historically been a major part of the HPPC
EPS (Rs) 17.7 19.4 23.7
vertical (65% of overall HPPC revenue), recent trends shown a shift
+/- (%) 14.9 9.6 21.6 towards non-agro sectors like home care, personal care, and paints.

PER (x) 38.8 35.4 29.1 • The industrial cleaning segment is expected to act as a major growth
trigger with the company looking to double the business going
Price/Book (x) 4.7 4.2 3.6
forward.
EV/Sales (x) 2.5 2.2 2.1
• The private label business for the likes of Amazon, Walmart, Gentil is
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.4 16.7 15.4 also doing well with revenue contribution of nearly ~Rs 1.2-1.4 bn.
Major Shareholders (%) • Management expects the TSC vertical to grow on the back of
Promoters 68 expansion across newer geographies especially Bangladesh.
FPIs 4 • Current ethoxylation capacities are currently running at full
MFs 13 utilisation, the new capacities will fetch 4-5x asset turns with 13-14%
BFSI’s 4 operating margins at peak utilisation.
Public & Others 10
• Biosurfactants’ margins are higher than the normal business though
Relative Performance contribution currently is negligible as domestic customers are not
1,400 giving the green premium. However, management expects this
1,200 business to contribute more than 50% to revenues by 2030.
1,000
800
600
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Rossari Biotech
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

331
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 5,131 5,982 7,093 14,830 16,559 18,306 29.0

EBITDA 776 1,047 1,235 1,834 2,230 2,498 26.3

PAT 457 653 800 977 1,073 1,307 23.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 33.9 37.9 34.8 25.5 29.3 29.3 –

EBITDA margin 15.0 17.5 17.4 12.4 13.5 13.6 –

PAT margin 8.8 10.9 11.3 6.6 6.5 7.1 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.0) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 –

EPS (Rs) 9.0 12.9 15.4 17.7 19.4 23.7 23.4

BV (Rs) 24.4 56.5 78.7 146.3 165.9 189.7 50.7

RoCE (%) 54.8 38.1 28.8 21.3 16.3 17.3 –

RoA (%) 32.0 25.4 21.2 16.2 12.6 13.4 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 43.3 31.8 23.1 16.1 12.5 13.3 –

Net profit margin 8.9 10.9 11.3 6.6 6.5 7.1 –

Asset turnover (x) 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data RR Kabel

Price (Rs) 1,727
Wired for the future
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code 0.0
• The constructions sector is witnessing notable upswing preliminary
Bloomberg code RRKABEL IN
fueled by housing boom, and this trend is anticipated to continue in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,335 the forthcoming years.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.5 • Both the construction and real estate sectors are poised for substantial
Issued shares (mn) 113 growth presenting a promising outlook for the company which also
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M aligns well with the business interest and is strategically positioned to
Absolute 4 20 0 capitalise on the flourishing opportunities in the sector.

Relative 4 19 (18) • 70% of the company’s revenue is from wires. 65% of domestic demand
is for cables and rest for wires and hence sees huge opportunity to
Valuation Ratios
grow in cables division. Its current margins are lower than the peers
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
due to higher share of exports of wire and lower efficiency in cables
EPS (Rs) 21.9 19.7 31.0 due to capacity constraints.
+/- (%) 56.2 (9.9) 57.2 • Hence, the company is adding 20% capacity in wires whereas doubling

PER (x) 78.8 87.5 55.6 cables capacity. As revenue grows, the company expects to earn EBIT
margin of 10-11% in Cables & Wires (C&W) division.
PBV (x) 13.2 11.6 9.0
• It is committed to a comprehensive capex plan of Rs 5 bn over the
Div./Yield (%) – – 0.1
next two years with the primary focus on doubling its power cables
EV/Sales (x) 3.8 3.0 2.5 capacity, expanding copper wire production, introducing an eBeam

EV/EBITDA (x) 55.5 51.7 35.7 facility and establishing PVC compound manufacturing facility.
• The company can generate revenue of ~Rs 25 bn with the capex it is
Major Shareholders (%)
incurring.
Promoters 63
• The C&W industry is expected to witness volume growth of 13-14%
FPIs 4
MFs 7
annually and the company expects to grow by 18-19%. Domestic
BFSI’s 3 volumes in cables were lower due to capacity constraints for the
Public & Others 24 company which it is addressing via capex. It will be back to normalised
volume growth pace post capacity addition.
Relative Performance
• The company is also aiming for margin improvement by 140 bps for
1,900
FY25E.
1,700
1,500 • C&W segment remains cornerstone of the business and it plans to
1,300 introduce complete range of power cables to improve service cycle.
1,100 • In FMEG, the company is performing better than the industry in terms
900
of growth and expects to break-even in FY25 with volume growth.
Oct-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

• The company believes FMEG industry to grow by 8-10% and RR Kabel

(RRK) to grow by ~20% on the back of wide product portfolio and further
RR Kabel
Sensex (rebased) introduction of new products.

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

333
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• FMEG division has potential to reach Rs 25 bn in revenue with EBIT margins of 7% by FY28 or FY29.
• Overall, exports currently contribute 27% to revenues and the company aims to increase it to 35% in the
longer horizon. It started its export journey with wires and now cables contribution is increasing gradually.
• RRK is the largest exporter of cable with 10% share in exports from India. 90% of its exports is under its own
brand.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY21-24)

Financials

Sales 27,239 43,859 55,992 65,946 34.3

EBITDA 2,301 3,032 3,223 4,617 26.1

PAT 1,343 2,097 1,889 2,970 30.3

Margin (%)

Gross margin 21.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 –

EBITDA margin 8.4 6.9 5.8 7.0 –

PAT margin 4.9 4.8 3.4 4.5 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 14.0 21.9 19.7 31.0 30.3

BV (Rs) 109.4 130.7 148.4 191.1 20.4

RoCE (%) 26.5 18.0 15.5 21.6 –

RoA (%) 24.2 16.1 12.7 16.7 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 25.7 18.3 14.2 18.3 –

Net profit margin 4.9 4.8 3.4 4.5 –

Asset turnover (x) 3.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data S.P. Apparels

Price (Rs) 568
Capacity expansion led growth along with foray into new
BSE Sensex 73,961 geographies
Reuters code SPAP.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code SPAL IN • Global demand is witnessing signs of green shoots majorly from the US
Market cap. (US$ mn) 171 and Europe. The demand scenario is better compared to last six months.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.4 In the next four-six months, exports from India are expected to pick-up.
Issued shares (mn) 25 • The capacity utilisation for the garmenting players in the Tiruppur
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M region has improved significantly. The major retailers are looking

Absolute (4) (7) 36 at India as an additional source of supply apart from Bangladesh.
Bangladesh+1 theme is also playing out.
Relative (4) (7) 18
• 4 main growth drivers for S.P. Apparels (SPAL): Increased capacity
Valuation Ratios
expansion at the Sivakasi unit, expansion of capacities in Sri Lanka for
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
SPUK, enhanced product mix and ramp-up of Young brand.
EPS (Rs) 32.9 32.9 35.7 • Young brand acquisition: Young brand is a strategic acquisition for
+/- (%) 96.2 (0.1) 8.6 SPAL majorly focused on innerwear products. 90% of revenues come
from the US and 10% from Korea. EBITDA margins should improve by
PER (x) 17.4 17.4 16.0
another 200-250 bps going forward from current 11%. The company is
PBV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9
currently looking to onboard Walmart as its customers. At full capacity
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.0 0.0 utilisation, Young brands can add Rs 4.5 bn to the topline.

EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.4 1.4 • Long-term outlook: In the next three-four years, SPAL is expecting
7-8% volume growth in the standalone business.
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 10.8 9.6
• SPUK: The company remains confident about the growth prospects
Major Shareholders (%)
of SPUK. For SPUK, FY26 is expected to be better. The company aims to
Promoters 62
add Rs 5 bn to the topline from SPUK in the long-term.
FPIs 2
• SP Retail: To fuel growth in this segment and capitalise on the
MFs 17
opportunities, SPAL is considering diluting its stake in the retail business
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 18
and to raise funds.
• FY25 outlook: For FY25, SPAL is expecting a topline of Rs 16 bn with PAT
Relative Performance
of Rs 1.2 bn with EBITDA margins of 18%. Net debt on a sustainable basis
700
600 is expected to be at Rs 1-1.5 bn. Going forward, in the near-term, SPAL is
500 focused on utilising its existing capacity to optimum levels.
400
300 Key triggers
200
100 • Ramp-up Sivakasi capacity and SPUK.
0
• Revival of demand from Europe resulting in increased order flows for
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Indian players.
• Completion of inventory liquidation by major retailers.
SP Apparels
Sensex (rebased) • FTA with UK and Europe would be a key trigger for Indian apparel and
Home Textile players.

Archit Joshi Roshan Nair

Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com roshan.nair@bksec.com

335
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 8,264 8,090 6,523 8,594 10,779 10,874 5.6

EBITDA 1,340 831 1,043 1,517 1,425 1,578 3.3
PAT 734 567 431 846 825 897 4.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 60.5 55.9 58.6 58.8 54.9 58.5 –

EBITDA margin 16.2 10.3 16.0 17.7 13.2 14.5 –
PAT margin 8.9 7.0 6.6 9.8 7.7 8.2 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 28.6 22.1 16.8 32.9 32.9 35.7 4.6
BV (Rs) 188.3 203.6 217.3 248.2 268.4 304.3 10.1
RoCE (%) 16.5 10.2 9.4 14.9 13.9 14.0 –
RoA (%) 13.7 8.6 8.1 12.8 12.0 12.2 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 16.7 11.3 8.0 14.1 12.6 12.5 –

Net profit margin 8.9 7.0 6.6 9.8 7.7 8.2 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 –

336
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Safari Industries (India)

Price (Rs) 1,967
Growth story intact; moving towards increasing retail presence
BSE Sensex 73,961 and premiumisation
Reuters code SAFA.BO Key Highlights
Bloomberg code SII IN Industry trends and growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,150 • There has been significant growth in travel over the last two-three
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.0 years post-Covid. SII has capitalised on this trend, becoming the No.1
Issued shares (mn) 49 brand in value terms and No.3 in terms of overall sizing.
Target price (Rs) 2,468 • The shift from unorganised to organised has further helped SII as it
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M was positioned at the mass end of the market. The shortening of the
Absolute (7) (3) 45 replacement cycle has also led to increased demand.

Relative (7) (4) 27 • Industry is expected to grow at 10-15% going ahead.

Valuation Ratios Premiumisation

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E

• Next leg of growth for the industry will come from premiumisation.
The company is also looking at premiumising its portfolio with the
EPS (Rs) 36.1 42.7 55.4
launch of Urban Jungle brand and Safari Select range. The response
+/- (%) 36.7 18.3 29.8 to premium products has been very good.
PER (x) 54.5 46.0 35.5 • In two-three years, targets Urban Jungle sales to reach Rs 1,000 mn.

PBV (x) 11.6 9.4 7.6

Post this, it will look at manufacturing in- house.
Sourcing
Div/Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.2
• Bangladesh offers the lowest manufacturing costs, followed by India
EV/Sales (x) 6.0 4.9 3.9
and then China. Earlier SII used to source 50% from China. Now it has
EV/EBITDA (x) 33.3 27.6 21.3 come down significantly.
Major Shareholders (%) • Hard luggage (HL) is manufactured in-house, while Soft luggage (SL)
Promoters 46 is 50% sourced from India and balance 50% from Bangladesh and
FPIs 13 China.
MFs 15 Capex plan
BFSI’s 6
• Capacity has increased from 25,000 pieces a month in 2016 to
Public & Others 21
0.65 mn bags p.m. currently. The current capacity is running at 90-
Relative Performance 95% utilisation. To address this, the company is almost doubling its
2,500 capacity by adding 0.5 mn bags p.m.
2,000
• This capacity is expected to come online by Diwali. Initial plan is to
1,500
start with ~0.3 mn bags p.m. Depending on the demand situation at
1,000
that time, can start with more capacity.
500
• The following cost efficiencies are expected because of new plant
0
1) saving on rent, 2) saving on warehousing cost and 3) saving on
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

freight as the entire north and east market will be served from the

Safari Industries India

new plant, which was earlier served from Halol plant.
Sensex (rebased)

Jigar Jani Purva Zanwar

Research Analyst Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com purva.zanwar@bksec.com

337
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Hard luggage versus Soft luggage

• SL to HL transition is happening very fast. Earlier SL:HL split was 80%: 20% which is now 30%:70%.
• Gross margin improvement because of the increasing share of HL which is manufactured in-house.
The next leg of gross margin increase will happen from increasing share of PP-based hard luggage.
Distribution expansion plans
• The company is opening 1 EBO every week. Plans to add 50 EBOs in FY25. The payback period for the
retail store is two years.
• Online sales are growing, while offline sales are stagnant due to pricing pressures. E-commerce
operators are selling at a cost lower than the company production price.
• Currently, around 2/3rd of sales is offline and 1/3rd is online for the company
Margins
• Gross margins are projected to be between 45-47% annually. Urban Jungle and Select range
contribution has yet not come in the gross margin.
• The company is comfortable in the range of 16-18% EBITDA margins. Anything beyond that will be
invested in the growth of the company.
Others
• Genie is a Rs 1,000 mn brand and it is scaling well and is profit making.
• Working capital is currently below the threshold, but debtors and inventory days are expected to
increase due to rising demand and the need to sell more products.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 5,766 6,841 3,268 7,033 12,084 15,458 18,710 23,084 21.8 22.2
EBITDA 524 720 (60) 552 1,969 2,775 3,341 4,211 39.5 23.2
PAT 272 307 (209) 317 1,251 1,758 2,080 2,700 45.2 23.9
Margin (%)
Gross margin 42.3 43.5 41.9 36.9 42.5 47.2 46.5 47.0 – –
EBITDA margin 9.1 10.5 (1.8) 7.8 16.2 17.9 17.8 18.2 – –
PAT margin 4.7 4.5 (6.4) 4.5 10.3 11.3 11.1 11.7 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.5 0.3 (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) – –
EPS (Rs) 6.1 6.9 (4.7) 7.1 26.4 36.1 42.7 55.4 42.7 23.9
BV (Rs) 44.9 51.6 62.3 67.2 89.8 168.9 208.6 260.1 30.3 24.1
RoCE (%) 17.1 15.9 (7.2) 13.3 39.4 32.5 27.2 28.6 – –
RoA (%) 13.8 12.6 (5.7) 10.0 28.4 25.3 22.3 23.4 – –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 14.6 14.2 (8.2) 10.9 34.4 28.1 22.6 23.6 – –
Net profit margin 4.7 4.5 (6.4) 4.5 10.3 11.3 11.1 11.7 – –
Asset turnover (x) 1.8 1.7 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Safari Industries (India) - 4QFY24 Result Update - 14 May
24.pdf

338
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sagar Cements

Price (Rs) 220
Following a cautious stance...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SGRC.BO
• Cement demand was muted during the last two months due to
Bloomberg code SGC IN
ongoing general elections and shortage of labour. However, the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 344 medium-term demand trend is expected to be strong considering
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 demand triggers like; government infrastructure push and healthy
Issued shares (mn) 131 traction in real estate segment. Sagar Cements (SGC) is expected to
Target price (Rs) 336 outperform industry volume growth in the medium-term owing to its
surplus capacity and expansion of market.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (1) (8) 8 • SGC has reaffirmed its medium-term strategy focused on
enhancing operational efficiency and maximising utilisation across
Relative (2) (8) (10)
its production facilities, with a particular emphasis on the recently
Valuation Ratios
acquired Andhra Cements assets. Additionally, SGC aims to increase
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E the proportion of green energy in its overall power mix, thereby
EPS (Rs) (4.0) 1.6 6.6 reducing power and fuel costs over the medium-term.

+/- (%) (681.6) (139.8) 314.5 • SGC will be receiving an annual incentive of Rs 300 mn for the next
seven years from the Madhya Pradesh government. This incentive is
PER (x) (55.2) 138.6 33.4
anticipated to significantly bolster the company’s cash flow over this
PBV (x) 1.5 1.5 1.4 period.
Div./Yield (%) (3.5) 75.6 18.2 • In terms of capital expenditure, SGC has outlined a substantial

EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2

investment plan of Rs 3.5 bn for FY25. A significant portion of this
capital, ~70%, will be allocated towards the modernisation of the
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.7 10.4 8.3
Andhra Cements plant. Additionally, the company is investing Rs 200
Major Shareholders (%) mn each in its Jeerabad and Gudipadu plants. These investments
Promoters 48 are targeted at increasing capacity utilisation and improving
FPIs 3 operational efficiency.
MFs 6 • Looking towards sustainability, SGC has set an ambitious goal to
BFSI’s 12
source 50% of its power from green energy by FY30. The company
Public & Others 32
has already initiated plans to increase the share of green power in
Relative Performance its energy mix. This transition is expected to yield considerable cost
350 savings, projected at around Rs 100 per tonne, from the first quarter
300
of FY25 through the fourth quarter of FY25.
250
200 • Andhra Cements plant is expected to break-even by FY26 which
150
100
will start reflecting in margins henceforth thus improving overall
50 profitability at group level.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Sagar Cements
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

339
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 12,103 11,599 13,526 15,933 22,229 24,951 29,870 34,575 15.6 17.7
EBITDA 1,494 1,855 4,004 2,758 1,532 2,459 4,046 4,985 10.5 42.4
PAT 136 267 1,861 592 85 (521) 207 860 NA NA
Margin (%)

Gross margin 80.3 80.4 82.3 85.9 81.0 83.5 83.3 83.1 – –

EBITDA margin 12.3 16.0 29.6 17.3 6.9 9.9 13.5 14.4 – –

PAT margin 1.1 2.3 13.8 3.7 0.4 (2.1) 0.7 2.5 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 – –

EPS (Rs) 1.3 2.5 16.3 5.0 0.7 (4.0) 1.6 6.6 NA NA
BV (Rs) 82.7 90.6 104.1 106.8 131.9 148.5 149.0 154.5 12.4 2.0
RoCE (%) 6.2 7.1 16.9 7.5 6.9 2.4 5.6 8.0 – –

RoA (%) 5.2 6.0 14.6 6.6 6.1 2.1 4.9 6.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 1.7 3.0 17.3 4.8 0.6 NA 1.1 4.3 – –

Net profit margin 1.1 2.3 13.8 3.7 0.4 (2.1) 0.7 2.5 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Sagar Cements - 4QFY24 Result Update - 21 May 24.pdf

340
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sai Silks (Kalamandir)

Price (Rs) 174
SSSG guidance of 3%; Retail space addition of 90k sq ft in FY25;
BSE Sensex 73,961 all new stores to be in VaraMahalakshmi format and in Tamil
Reuters code SAIS.BO Nadu state
Bloomberg code SSKL IN Key highlights

Market cap. (US$ mn) 320.4 Performance highlights for 4Q/FY24: 4Q slowdown on account of

6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.4

fewer wedding dates

Issued shares (mn) 153 • SSSG: 3%/(-)6% for 4Q/FY24.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Category-wise revenue contribution: Saree/Non-saree – 69.5/29.5%.

Non-saree category includes lehengas, kurtas, kurtis, and accessories,
Absolute (15) (25) 0
available in KLM and Kalamandir formats.
Relative (15) (26) (18)
• Ethnic versus non-ethnic revenue contribution: 80-85%:15-20% (from
Valuation Ratios tops, jeans, etc.).
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 • Men and kids’ wear contribute to 15-18% of overall revenue, with
EPS (Rs) 4.8 8.1 8.1 occasion wear being a major component, particularly in the KLM
ethnic value fashion format.
+/- (%) 1,000.8 69.2 0.0
• Repeat purchase: ~53%. Customer base of 6.5 mn.
PER (x) 36.3 21.5 25.4
• 60 stores across 16 cities (following cluster-based model). Retail
PBV (x) 7.0 5.3 2.4 presence of 6.47 lakh sq ft (versus FY23: 6.03 lakh sq ft) with average
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.8 1.8 store area of 10.8k sq ft.

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.3 11.2 11.4 • Over 95% of the company’s sales are at full price, with VML achieving
100% full price sales; only 1-2 stores have EoSS at the store level.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Brand-wise revenue contribution for FY24: VaraMahalakshmi/KLM/
Promoters 61
Kalamandir/Mandir – 42/38/16/4%.
FPIs 7
• Inventory ageing: More than 1 year inventory - 14-15%; More than 2 years
MFs 17
inventory - 3-4%
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 12 Guidance for FY25: SSSG of 3% | Retail expansion by 90k sq ft | All new
stores to be in VaraMahalakshmi format and in Tamil Nadu
Relative Performance
• 3Q/4Q are main quarters for the company. 1QFY25 is expected to be
350
300 soft as wedding dates are lower in Andhra Pradesh/Telangana region.
250
200 • 50k sq ft expected to be added in 1HFY25, with an expected contribution
150 of Rs 3-3.5 bn in turnover. The company plans to add 90k sq ft of store
100
50 area in FY25, with all store openings planned in Tamil Nadu and under
0 the VaraMahalakshmi format.
Oct-23
Nov-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Sep-23

Feb-24
Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

Expansion under VaraMahalakshmi in Tamil Nadu – to improve Gross

margin/EBITDA margin by 200-300 bps
Sai Silks (Kalamandir)
Sensex (rebased) • Tamil Nadu is the largest saree market in India. The sales throughput
for stores in Tamil Nadu are expected to be better in comparison to
other states. Also, the silk saree consumption is higher in the state.

Akhil Parekh Aradhana Jain

Research Analyst Research Analyst
akhil.parekh@bksec.com aradhana.jain@bksec.com

341
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The company’s average sales per sq ft is ~Rs 22,000, while sales per sq ft of VaraMahalakshmi is 2-2.25x of
the company average. VaraMahalakshmi’s gross margins are better by ~200-300 bps of the company’s
gross margins, while its EBITDA margin is roughly 1.3-1.4x of blended levels. Once VaraMahalakshmi store
count reaches 50, EBITDA margins are likely to be at ~2x of the company level.
• Opening more VaraMahalakshmi stores is expected to drive the premiumisation and improve gross
margin and EBITDA margin by 200-300 bps at the company level.
Unit economics for VaraMahalakshmi store with payback within 18 months
• The initial throughput for new stores (Rs 65,000-70,000 per sq ft) is typically higher than the company
average. Sai Silks does a lot of marketing during the new store launch to increase visibility and footfall.
The initial period sales are high, and it reduces and stabilises over six months. Majority of payback and
recovery of capex happens in one year for new stores.
Working capital support to weavers – expected to give better terms to Sai Silks and improve margins
by 200-300 bps
• No. of store count for VaraMahalakshmi stands at 26 (FY24) which is expected to reach 50 stores. Once the
store count goes up as projected, the procurement from weavers is expected to reach 2-3x of current levels.
• The company plans to unwrite the entire capacity of weavers. By giving advances to them, Sai Silks will be
able to negotiate on the volume discounts.
• This is expected to improve the margin profile by 200-300 bps and help in payable days reduction.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY21-24)
Financials
Sales 6,773 11,293 13,515 13,736 27
EBITDA 624 1,331 2,125 2,120 50
PAT 51 577 976 1,008 170
Margin (%)
Gross margin 34.0 34.7 39.1 40.7 –
EBITDA margin 9.2 11.8 15.7 15.4 –
PAT margin 0.8 5.1 7.2 7.3 –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.8 0.7 0.7 (0.1) –
EPS (Rs) 0.4 4.8 8.1 6.9 151
BVPS (Rs) 20.6 25.0 33.0 2.0 (54)
RoCE (%) 7.4 18.1 22.7 15.2 –
RoA (%) 5.4 14.0 17.4 13.1 –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 2.2 21.2 28.0 13.8 –
Net Profit margin 0.8 5.1 7.2 7.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Sai Silks (Kalamandir) - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 28
May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Samvardhana Motherson International

Price (Rs) 151
Expected boost in performance on recent acquisitions
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SAMD.BO
• Samvardhana Motherson International (SAMIL) having a well-
Bloomberg code MOTHERSO IN
diversified presence across components, customers and geographies
Market cap. (US$ mn) 12,284 are emerging as the key beneficiary in EV segment and rising trend of
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 32.9 premiumisation across all segments.
Issued shares (mn) 6,776 • Currently, the order book is ~Rs 83 bn out of which 23% is generated
Target price (Rs) 147 from the EV segment. The revenue generated from the EV segment
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M contributes 7-8% along with content per vehicle being higher

Absolute 15 27 91 than ICE vehicles by ~3x. Good traction is expected from the non-
automotive businesses, such as aerospace, consumer electronics
Relative 15 27 73
and health & medical segment.
Valuation Ratios
• Despite some temporary dips, the company maintains a positive
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
outlook for long-term trends such as premiumisation and engine
EPS 6.0 6.7 9.2 type transitions, albeit at a slower pace. While there may be variations

+/- (%) 141.9 11.6 36.9 QoQ, the company is fully supplying various models, with growth in
some sectors offsetting declines in others, contributing to overall
PER 24.6 22.0 16.1
performance growth.
PBV 3.9 3.4 2.9
• Currently, there are no plans to transfer the gross block of Motherson
Dividend Yield 0.9 0.9 0.9 Sumi Wiring due to high stamp duty and other related costs to this

EV/Sales 1.1 0.9 0.8

transfer. While the previous greenfield project (valued at US$ 500 mn)
faced challenges, SAMIL has initiated new capex for 18 greenfield
EV/EBITDA 12.3 10.0 8.1
projects. Throughout the company’s operations, assembly is done
Major Shareholders (%) in-house while materials not manufactured by SAMIL are sourced
Promoters 60 externally with no liability for these materials.
FPIs 12 • Having already invested Rs 40 bn in FY24 majorly in emerging markets,
MFs 15 they plan on investing Rs 50 bn in FY25 of which, Rs 20 bn would be in
BFSI’s 3
new greenfields of which, 70% of the capex would cater to the non-
Public & Others 9
auto segment. They plan on setting up 18 new greenfields (13 in India,
Relative Performance 4 in China and 1 Poland) in the coming years.
160 • SAMIL expects the global automotive production volume to remain
140
120 positive with positive contribution from organic as well as inorganic
100 businesses. The company expects full impact of M&As to further
80
60 strengthen their diversification. The full impact of acquisitions of
40
Yachiyo, Lumen and ADI are expected to be reflected from 1QFY25
20
0 and these acquisitions are expected to add Rs 144 bn in net revenues
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

in FY25.

Samvardhana Motherson International

Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• SAMIL over the past five years has maintained a clear focus on the automotive industry while also
diversifying into other sectors leveraging its engineering and manufacturing strengths. Initiatives include
forming dedicated teams for healthcare, aerospace, defense, and consumer electronics. With India’s
“Make in India” push attracting new customers and industries, the company is seizing opportunities
beyond the automotive segment. A recent partnership in consumer electronics signifies a commitment
to diversifying revenue streams and fostering growth opportunities, providing resilience during industry
challenges and opening new avenues for development.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 635,535 607,290 573,699 637,740 787,007 978,627 1,198,003 1,323,377 9.0 16.3

EBITDA 53,768 46,542 43,590 46,994 62,077 86,119 109,018 128,368 9.9 22.1

PAT 17,748 16,416 11,700 11,014 9,219 15,951 32,382 45,439 (2.1) 68.8

Margin (%)

Gross margin 42.2 42.4 43.2 42.4 42.4 43.0 43.4 43.9 – –

EBITDA margin 8.5 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.9 8.8 9.1 9.7 – –

PAT margin 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 2.7 3.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 5.2 3.7 3.5 2.0 2.4 6.0 6.7 9.2 2.9 23.8

BV (Rs) 34.7 35.6 39.7 45.6 33.1 37.5 42.7 50.4 1.6 16.0

RoCE (%) 13.8 7.6 5.7 5.9 8.4 13.5 15.6 18.6 – –

RoA (%) 8.8 4.9 3.6 3.8 5.6 8.9 10.2 12.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 15.8 10.5 9.3 5.6 7.4 13.5 16.7 19.7 – –

Net profit margin 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 2.7 3.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sandhar Technologies

Price (Rs) 530
Outlook remains strong…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SNTL.BO
• Current order schedules are good for achieving future growth.
Bloomberg code SANDHAR IN
Going forward, focus is on deleveraging the balance sheet and FCF
Market cap. (US$ mn) 382 generation.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.1 • Management expects a 15-20% growth in revenue for FY25.
Issued shares (mn) 60 • The company expects 50 bps improvement in margins in FY25.
Target price (Rs) 613
• Major capex has been completed. There are three plants that are
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M under different stages of going into production in FY25.
Absolute 5 1 97 • The major product lines for smart locks – Suzuki and Honda are
Relative 5 1 78 expected to commence from October and November 2025. Order
Valuation Ratios book size for Suzuki is Rs 5.5 bn.

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Maintenance capex is usually at 3-4% of turnover and growth capex
for FY25 is expected to be at Rs 1.0 bn for FY25.
EPS (Rs) 18.2 22.2 27.7
• In EV segment, the company has a motor controller with applications
Change (%) 48.2 21.7 25.0
towards two-wheeler and three-wheeler and rated power of 250 W, 2
PER (x) 29.1 23.9 19.1 kW and 6 kW. These are expected to come in by June 2024, July 2024
PBV (x) 3.1 2.8 2.4 and November 2024 each. EV cost for a motor controller can range
from Rs 4,000-9,000 per vehicle.
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1
• The company has spent Rs 100 mn in EV front and expects to spend
EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.9 0.8
another Rs 100 mn in FY25.
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 9.1 7.8
• The company operates the cabins and fabrications division at a
Major Shareholders (%) margin of 8%. The company expects an improvement of 50 to 100 bps
Promoters 70 once the new Pune facility starts contributing to it.
FPIs 1
MFs 16
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 12

Relative Performance
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Sandhar Technologies
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

345
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 23,358 19,434 18,636 23,237 29,089 35,211 40,008 44,082 8.6 11.9
EBITDA 2,515 1,964 1,884 2,060 2,491 3,406 4,121 4,629 6.3 16.6
PAT 959 569 578 569 741 1,098 1,336 1,670 2.7 23.3
Margin (%)

Gross margin 40.8 42.7 41.4 39.1 37.2 39.0 38.5 38.5 – –

EBITDA margin 10.8 10.1 10.1 8.9 8.6 9.7 10.3 10.5 – –

PAT margin 4.1 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 – –

EPS (Rs) 15.9 9.5 9.6 9.4 12.3 18.2 22.2 27.7 2.7 23.3
BV (Rs) 119.6 126.7 133.6 142.7 152.9 168.9 190.7 218.0 7.2 13.6
RoCE (%) 18.7 10.4 9.7 8.7 9.0 11.6 12.9 14.3 – –

RoA (%) 11.6 7.6 7.1 6.3 6.8 8.6 9.3 10.0 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 14.2 7.7 7.4 6.8 8.3 11.3 12.3 13.6 – –

Net profit margin 4.1 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Sandhar Technologies - 4QFY24 Result Update - 24 May
24.pdf

346
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Saregama India

Price (Rs) 503
Music play transforming into content play
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SARE.BO
• The company experienced a recovery in growth during the most
Bloomberg code SARE IN
recent quarter, following a period of sluggish performance over the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,162 past year. This previous decline in revenues was due to the termination
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.0 of minimum guarantees with certain audio OTT platforms. The recent
Issued shares (mn) 193 increase in revenues, coupled with improved margins, is encouraging.
Target price (Rs) 543 • The management reiterated their confidence in achieving a revenue
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M growth (CAGR) of 25-26% (excluding music retailing) and expect profits

Absolute 17 25 62 to double within the next three-four years. The annual adjusted EBITDA
guidance remains steady at 32-33%.
Relative 17 25 43
• The management credits the growth in music licensing and margin
Valuation Ratios
expansion to strong advertising revenues, fueled by ongoing
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
investments in new music. In FY24, Saregama India (SARE) spent ~Rs 2b
EPS (Rs) 10.2 12.5 15.1 n on new content acquisition. They expect the same to rise to Rs 3 bn

+/- (%) 6.8 22.5 20.6 in FY25.

• Their old catalogue, with almost no incremental expenses, is growing
PER (x) 49.2 40.2 33.3
at 12% YoY. This is encouraging. There are no major marketing expenses
PBV (x) 6.6 6.0 5.4
for the old library due to certain barter deals.
Div./Yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.2 • Instagram and YouTube Shorts currently operate on a fixed fee model.
EV/Sales (x) 11.3 8.9 7.5 Shift of the same to a revenue sharing model shall bode well for SARE.

EV/EBITDA (x) 36.7 30.8 25.1 • The music retailing segment is expected to remain subdued in terms
of topline. Sales of Carvaan will only take place through e-commerce
Major Shareholders (%)
and modern trade channels. The company has discontinued the
Promoters 59
product from small standalone stores, resulting in stagnant revenues.
FPIs 16
Price hikes shall aid margin uptick here.
MFs 1
• Pocket Aces seems to be shaping up well. Most of the synergies
BFSI’s 2
Public & Others 22
here shall be on the cost front. The companies are reassessing their
cost structures and eliminating redundant expenses. The artist
Relative Performance
management verticals shall synergise well too. SARE takes a fixed
700
percentage of revenues generated by artists for a period of three-five
600
500 years.
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Saregama India
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

347
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 5,447 5,215 4,420 5,762 7,366 8,030 10,356 12,331 8.1 23.9
EBITDA 382 605 1,301 1,989 2,210 2,466 3,003 3,699 45.2 22.5
PAT 543 435 1,135 1,526 1,851 1,976 2,420 2,919 29.5 21.6
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 7.0 11.6 29.4 34.5 30.0 30.7 29.0 30.0 – –

PAT margin 10.0 8.3 25.7 26.5 25.1 24.6 23.4 23.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.0 (0.3) (0.6) (0.6) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 2.8 2.3 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.2 12.5 15.1 – –

BV (Rs) 22.2 20.7 26.2 71.5 69.6 76.2 83.9 93.0 – –

RoCE (%) 18.1 13.2 30.3 22.0 17.9 17.5 18.1 20.0 – –

RoA (%) 14.2 10.1 22.1 17.9 15.0 14.7 15.3 16.7 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 13.4 10.5 25.1 16.2 13.6 14.1 15.7 17.1 – –

Net profit margin 10.0 8.3 25.7 26.5 25.1 24.6 23.4 23.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Saregama India - 4QFY24 Result Update - 24 May 24.pdf

348
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data SBFC Finance

Price (Rs) 81
MSME focused NBFC with PAN India presence
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SBFC.BO
Growth
Bloomberg code SBFC IN
• The company has maintained its 5-7% sequential AUM growth
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,047
guidance. Gold loan AUM growth to be around 20-25% YoY, while the
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.0 non-gold loan AUM growth will be around 30-35% YoY.
Issued shares (mn) 1,074 • The company will prioritise asset quality and prefer good quality
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M customers over growth.
Absolute (7) (4) 0 • Focus is on self-origination of loans as DSAs are not very active in the
Relative (7) (4) (18) smaller ticket sizes and the churn rate is also higher in DSA sourced loans.
Valuation Ratios • 85% of the book is non-gold loan of which 99% of the book is floating in
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 nature.
• Loans with ticket size above Rs 1.5 mn are done under co-origination.
EPS (Rs) 0.8 1.7 2.2
• New branch has a target of reaching 15% RoE in 36 months.
BVPS (Rs) 16.0 19.4 25.9
• Login to sanction ratio is 5:1.
P/E (x) 101.3 48.1 36.6
Margins
P/BV (x) 5.1 4.2 3.1
• Co-originated loans are repo linked, while the other loans are linked to
Major Shareholders (%) the company’s internal benchmark rates.
Promoters 61 • The management further aims to diversify its borrowing sources.
FPIs 3 The company recently borrowed money from mutual funds at a
MFs 12
competitive coupon rate of 9% and has also negotiated with banks to
BFSI’s 2
lower the rates.
Public & Others 23
• Marginal cost of borrowing is currently lower than current cost of
Relative Performance borrowings.
120
Opex
100
80 • There is a scope to further reduce the opex cost by 40-50 bps driven
60 by operating leverage.
40
20 Asset quality
0 • Credit is decentralised based on certain rules but risk is centralised.
Oct-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Aug-23
Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

• No FLDG in the co-origination agreement with ICICI Bank and risks are
shared on a pari-passu basis.
SBFC Finance
Sensex (rebased) • The company hasn’t seen large number of repossessions in its history
as customers generally settle. Only 50-60 properties have been
repossessed since inception.
• LGD on repossession and sale is between 20-25% but the company
carries a PCR of 45% on Stage.3 assets.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• GNPA on a steady state basis will be 2.5-3% with a credit cost in the range of 80-100 bps.
Return ratios
• Steady state return ratios will be between 3.75-4%, while RoE will settle in the range of 14-16% with a leverage
of 4x.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR
(FY19-FY24)

Net Interest Income 1,263 2,008 2,731 3,101 4,639 6,692 38.4
Operating Expense 912 1,122 1,254 1,873 2,305 3,061 26.1
Operating Profit 351 887 1,477 1,228 2,334 3,631 60.6
PAT 244 355 850 645 1,497 2,370 57.3
Shareholder's Fund 8,802 10,125 12,051 12,872 17,273 27,783 18.4
AUM 11,530 16,493 22,217 31,924 49,428 68,220 43.9
Borrowings 8,417 30,556 27,682 29,399 37,391 39,960 45.2
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Rs) 0 0 1 1 2 2 46.9
BV (Rs) 13 14 15 16 19 26 10.5
Return Profile (%)
ROA 1.5 1.2 2.0 1.5 2.9 3.7 –
ROE 2.8 3.8 7.7 5.2 9.9 10.5 –
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 0.4 2.3 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 –
NNPA 0.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 –
PCR NM 29.4 38.3 37.9 39.3 44.4 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/SBFC Finance - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note - 29 Apr 24.pdf

350
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data SBI Life Insurance Company

Price (Rs) 1,386
Strategic stance remains intact
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SBIL.BO
• SBI Life Insurance Company’s (SBI Life) strategic stance remains
Bloomberg code SBILIFE IN
focused on growth with the right product mix.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 16641.9
• Management aspires to maintain similar growth rates as last financial
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 24.2 year, with stable margins.
Issued shares (mn) 1,002 • While demand is robust for ULIP products, management remains
Target price (Rs) 1,706 focused on the non-linked products in the banca channel. A large
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M proportion of SBI’s customers have affordability to buy insurance.
Absolute (3) (11) 12 • According to the management, the agency channel will outperform
Relative (4) (11) (6) the Banca channel as the company has been investing in increasing
the number of agents and expanding branches.
Valuation Ratios
• In the next three years, the agency channel is expected to double as
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
the company is continuously activating agents and training them to
Price to VNB 25.0 21.1 18.2
improve overall productivity. Productivity of several branches are at
Price to EV 2.4 2.0 1.7 par or better than that of private peers.
Price to Earnings 73.2 60.1 55.0 • SBI Life has a strong market share in semi urban geographies with
almost 50% of the premium coming from the Tier 2/3 cities.
Price to Book Value 9.3 8.2 7.3
• In case of any regulatory change in surrender value to be paid out
Major Shareholders (%)
to the customers, SBI Life is well positioned to manage the impact
Promoters 55
owing to the company’s lower operating and commission expenses.
FPIs 25
MFs 12
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 4

Relative Performance
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

SBI Life Insurance Co

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Net premium income 328,904 403,240 497,683 584,323 665,810 805,871 908,708 1,093,493 18.9 16.5

Income from Investments 112,081 29,968 314,560 235,680 132,601 503,666 478,483 535,901 102.5 3.2

Contrib. Shareholders' 989 4,763 8,248 9,822 17,075 16,276 17,903 19,694 36 10
account & other Income

Total income 442,612 438,428 820,849 830,272 815,985 1,326,314 1,405,738 1,649,796 31.9 11.5

Surplus from Revenue 10,866 18,947 19,789 18,838 28,562 27,915 31,208 36,075 10.2 13.7
account

PAT 13,268 14,222 14,559 15,060 17,206 18,945 23,057 25,228 7.4 15.4

Shareholder's funds 75,764 87,431 104,004 116,223 130,175 149,086 168,237 189,678 14.3 12.8

Key Parameters

APE 96,900 107,500 114,500 143,100 168,100 197,200 230,747 265,441 16.4 16

VNB 19,186 22,253 26,564 37,040 50,700 55,500 65,753 76,376 25.7 17.3

VNB Margin (%) 19.8 20.7 23.2 25.9 30.2 28.1 28.5 28.8 - -

EV 225,078 263,878 335,164 396,300 460,500 582,600 703,761 840,238 21.9 20.1

Product Mix on APE basis (%)

Par 18.68 10.88 8.47 5.24 5.65 3.96 3.72 3.6 - -

Non-par savings + annuity 0.41 6.88 11.97 14.4 25.28 19.52 20.65 21.9 - -

Individual protection 3.82 4.74 6.38 6.43 5.83 4.77 4.71 4.5 - -

Group protection (GTL + CP) 2.99 4.19 4.1 4.33 4.76 5.88 5.5 5.7 - -

ULIP 70.72 69.58 64.8 65.76 55.26 60.5 59.91 58.6 - -

Group savings 3.38 3.72 4.28 3.84 3.21 5.38 5.51 5.8 - -

Valuations (x)

Price to VNB 3.6 3.4 61.2 38.6 28.2 25.0 21.1 18.2 - -

Price to EV 2.6 2.3 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.7 - -

Price to Earnings 107.8 100.5 98.2 94.9 83.1 73.2 60.1 55.0 - -

Price to Book Value 18.9 16.4 13.7 12.3 11 9.3 8.2 7.3 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/SBI Life Insurance Company - 4QFY24 Result Update - 26
Apr 24.pdf

352
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data SG Mart

Price (Rs) 435
Largest space to play within formalisation theme
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code KINT.BO
• Construction Material industry is primarily dominated by offline
Bloomberg code SGMART IN
distribution channels. A higher share of unorganised players has led
Market cap. (US$ mn) 581 to multiple pitfalls like fragmented supplier base, minimum purchase
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.9 requirement and lack of standardised pricing.
Issued shares (mn) 112 • SG Mart operates to solve all these hurdles by providing a B2B tech-
Target price (Rs) n/a enabled platform catering purely towards the Construction Material
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M industry with a total addressable market size of Rs 6 trn. This was built

Absolute (5) (21) 553 from the experiences of problems seen at APL Apollo. It also provided
financing to small traders as they started SG Finserv.
Relative (5) (21) 535
• The core issue is presence of small traders cannot enable India to
Valuation Ratios
become a manufacturing powerhouse. They lack capacity and
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
financing. SG Mart wants to become a super-stockist and source
EPS (Rs) 0 0 5.5 steel at better rates at its service station. This is the start given its

+/- (%) NM NM NM history to procure steel for Apollo Tubes.

• The capabilities of SG Mart, we believe, could allow it to become
PER (x) NA NA 79.5
exponentially larger than any other distributor today for any
PBV (x) NA NA 4.5
established brand. The mega warehouses will have improved
EV/Sales (x) NA NA 1.8 efficiencies and just-in-time delivery. Once the mega warehouses

EV/EBITDA (x) NA NA 79.3

are opened in cities, they can expand into smaller industrial towns
with its own service stations. This can be expanded to multiple
Major Shareholders (%)
commodities in the construction material industry. This is a highly
Promoters 53 scalable business with lot of industry gaps.
FPIs 4
• In FY24, with nine months of operations, the company established its
MFs 1
customer base spanning EPC companies, real estate developers, OEMs,
Public & Others 43
traders, dealers and retailers. It has built a robust network of suppliers
Relative Performance and logistics providers across 24 states ensuring pan-India reach.
700
• Distribution of ancillary products is another large market of TAM
600
500 worth Rs 4 trn. These include steel pipes, rebars, MS Wire & Rods, etc.
400
which are made from processed steel. This has tie-ups with small
300
200 manufacturers and fragmented demand base, enabling better
100
efficiencies for all parties.
0
• The management envisions achieving a topline of Rs 180 bn by FY27.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

We believe that this is achievable with distribution, financing and just-

SG Mart in-time muscle. SG Mart would further likely have less than a month
Sensex (rebased) of working capital and asset light operations. The only real challenge
in scale-up shall be thin margins warranting inventory and logistics
controls.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

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Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY20-24)
Financials

Sales 1 63 0 16 26,829 NA
EBITDA (1) (2) (2) (8) 618 NA
PAT 5 3 3 2 609 NA
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin (35.7) (2.5) (442.8) (48.6) 2.3 –

PAT margin 331.4 4.8 815.5 12.4 2.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.0) (0.6) (1.0) 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 NA
BV (Rs) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 97.5 NA
RoCE (%) 5.7 3.8 3.5 2.2 14.5 –
RoA (%) 5.5 3.7 3.2 2.1 12.4 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 8.2 2.6 2.6 1.6 11.1 –

Net profit margin 331.4 4.8 815.5 12.4 2.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 3.6 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sharda Cropchem

Price (Rs) 385
Lack of sustainable trends
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SHCR.BO
• The company projects a 10% volume growth for FY25 and aims for 17-
Bloomberg code SHCR IN
18% margins in FY26.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 416
• The focus remains on registering formulations and active ingredients
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.9 across various regions, with Sharda Cropchem’s (SHCR) strong growth
Issued shares (mn) 90 expected to continue.
Target price (Rs) 359 • Europe accounts for 55-60% of revenue, with 15-20% coming from NAFTA.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M This distribution is expected to remain stable, as the company does
Absolute 4 7 (20) not plan to expand into developing economies due to bureaucratic
Relative 4 7 (38) challenges.
• The company anticipates recovering registration costs within two-
Valuation Ratios
three years, believing this to be sustainable.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• High registration costs, and the lengthy process of registering
EPS (Rs) 3.5 22.7 29.0
formulations and active ingredients are significant entry barriers.
+/- (%) (92.0) 542.0 27.8 • The current agrochemicals to non-agrochemicals mix are 85:15, with
PER (x) 108.7 16.9 13.2 the non-agrochemicals business expected to grow over the next
three-five years.
Price/Book (x) 1.5 1.4 1.3
• Product registration as on 31st March 2024 stood at 2,918 with an
EV/Sales (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
additional 1,095 registrations at different stages of approval.
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.4 5.9 4.9
• Capex for FY24 stood at Rs 4.2 bn and guided capex for FY25 will be in
Major Shareholders (%) the range of Rs 4.0-4.5 bn.
Promoters 75
FPIs 2
MFs 12
Public & Others 11

Relative Performance
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Sharda Cropchem
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

355
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 19,976 20,030 23,956 35,798 40,452 31,630 36,254 41,826 9.6 15.0

EBITDA 3,266 2,959 4,168 6,994 7,007 2,829 5,411 6,668 (2.8) 53.5

PAT 1,807 1,798 2,093 3,657 3,996 319 2,047 2,616 (29.3) 186.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 30.5 30.7 31.7 30.2 29.3 25.9 31.0 31.0 – –

EBITDA margin 16.4 14.8 17.4 19.5 17.3 8.9 14.9 15.9 – –

PAT margin 9.0 9.0 8.7 10.2 9.9 1.0 5.6 6.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 20.0 19.9 23.2 40.5 44.3 3.5 22.7 29.0 (29.3) 186.4

BV (Rs) 142.3 155.5 178.9 212.0 247.4 248.0 266.7 290.7 11.7 8.3

RoCE (%) 18.0 14.1 17.8 24.9 22.0 3.1 10.8 12.7 – –

RoA (%) 11.2 8.9 11.2 14.6 12.2 1.8 6.8 8.1 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 15.1 13.4 13.9 20.7 19.3 1.4 8.8 10.4 – –

Net profit margin 9.0 9.0 8.7 10.2 9.9 1.0 5.6 6.3 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Sharda Cropchem - 4QFY24 Result Update - 14 May 24.pdf

356
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Shoppers Stop

Price (Rs) 730
Healthy store expansion to drive growth…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SHOP.BO
Overall demand
Bloomberg code SHOP IN
• The fourth quarter had a softer start due to the ongoing EoSS in the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 962
beginning of the quarter.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.0
• March registered the best performance followed by February and
Issued shares (mn) 110 January, delivering +13%/+6%/flat SSSG, respectively.
Target price (Rs) 1,250
• Women’s western wear and a certain part of men’s wear continue to
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M witness softer demand.
Absolute 2 (2) (4) Intune business update
Relative 2 (2) (22)
• The business has been EBITDA positive from the first year of its
Valuation Ratios operations which is a positive.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • The company will continue to follow a cluster-based expansion

EPS (Rs) 7.1 16.3 30.3 approach. It has guided for ~60 store additions for FY25, with ~12 store
additions in 1QFY25.
+/- (%) (33.4) 130.1 86.5
• It plans to end FY25/26E with 82 and 162 stores, respectively.
PER (x) 103.6 45.0 24.1
Beauty and Beauty distribution business update
PBV (x) 26.6 15.3 9.4
• Both these businesses along with Intune will be the next growth levers.
EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.4 1.0 • The improvement in customer conversion in the beauty business
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.4 8.3 6.0 is facilitated by higher number of makeovers and better customer
conversions.
Major Shareholders (%)
• Continual onboarding of new brands in the beauty distribution
Promoters 66
FPIs 7
business complements the premiumisation strategy of the company.
MFs 21 Store expansion
BFSI’s 1 • Shoppers Stop (SHOP0 opened 7/3/12 and 15/16/22 Department stores,
Public & Others 5 Beauty and Intune stores during the quarter and FY24, respectively.
Relative Performance • It plans to launch 2 premium concept stores by FY25 end.
1,000 Guidance
800
• It plans to increase its contribution from premium products from 47%
600
currently to 58% by FY25 end.
400
200
• It aims on delivering 5% Average Selling Price (ASP) growth and 8%
0 Average Ticket Value (ATV) growth driven by premiumisation.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• In store coffee house and personalised interaction with customers is

expected to drive growth in Departmental stores. Further, introduction
Shoppers Stop of international and masstige brands will drive growth in Beauty
Sensex (rebased)
stores.

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

357
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 37,309 33,810 17,251 25,188 40,221 43,166 57,128 76,569 3.0 33.2
EBITDA 2,533 5,494 534 2,693 6,953 7,170 9,727 13,257 23.1 36.0
PAT 788 (1,209) (2,573) (454) 1,160 772 1,778 3,316 (0.4) 107.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 39.0 41.8 38.3 40.2 42.1 41.1 45.6 45.3 – –

EBITDA margin 6.8 16.3 3.1 10.7 17.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 – –

PAT margin 2.1 (3.6) (14.9) (1.8) 2.9 1.8 3.1 4.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.0) (0.2) (0.1) 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 (0.0) – –

EPS (Rs) 9.0 (13.7) (23.5) (4.2) 10.6 7.1 16.3 30.3 – –

BV (Rs) 111.1 15.5 16.6 6.9 18.8 27.6 47.9 77.8 – –

RoCE (Rs) 13.2 8.6 (5.2) 4.1 17.3 13.2 15.8 18.8 – –

RoA (Rs) 6.4 4.4 (2.9) 2.2 8.8 6.8 8.5 10.1 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 8.2 (21.7) (161.7) (35.3) 82.3 30.4 43.1 48.3 – –

Net profit margin 2.1 (3.6) (14.9) (1.8) 2.9 1.8 3.1 4.3 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.2 5.9 24.0 28.6 29.7 19.5 14.5 10.9 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Shoppers Stop - 4QFY24 Result Update - 30 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Shree Cement

Price (Rs) 24,681
Eyeing sustainable growth...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SHCM.BO
• The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8-9% over the next five
Bloomberg code SRCM IN
years, indicating a need for incremental demand of 200 MT over that
Market cap. (US$ mn) 10,673 period, while the capacity pipeline is lower than demand. Hence, the
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 12.0 demand-supply trend is expected to remain healthy.
Issued shares (mn) 36 • Housing and infrastructure projects continue to be key demand
Target price (Rs) 31,377 drivers for the industry.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Shree Cement’s (SRCM) capacity is expected to increase to 80 MT
Absolute 1 (3) (2) by FY28, which would provide a base lever to outperform industry
Relative 1 (3) (20) growth. Further, entry into new markets would further support growth.
• Key cost drivers include increasing the share of renewables from
Valuation Ratios
56% to 65% within the next year, which will save Rs 35 per tonne, and
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
the commencement of captive coal mines in FY25, expected to save
EPS (Rs) 684.2 746.9 831.4 around Rs 500 mn per year. Additionally, the company aims to boost
+/- (%) 85.9 9.2 11.3 railway contributions and reduce lead distances, ensuring it remains
the cost leader in the industry.
PER (x) 36.2 33.1 29.8
• The cement industry is not purely a commodity market; a significant
PBV (x) 4.4 3.9 3.5
portion is branded, as people trust branded products when building
Div./Yield (%) 9.7 16.1 14.4 homes. While the company’s core focus remains on volume, it also
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 4.2 3.6 caters to the branded market.

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.8 17.2 14.9 • Inorganic growth opportunities are more expensive compared
to internal projects, even when considering the time value of the
Major Shareholders (%)
projects. Therefore, the company has adopted a conservative
Promoters 63
approach in this area.
FPIs 12
• Over the last three to four years, the company has added 1,100 MT of
MFs 8
limestone reserves, compared to its lifetime consumption of 200 MT.
BFSI’s 5
Public & Others 13
The company is committed to ensuring the longevity of its business
model. While limestone availability is not an issue, securing it in the
Relative Performance
right locations poses a challenge. The premium for limestone mine
40,000
35,000
bidding depends on location and the urgency of the competitive
30,000 ecosystem.
25,000
20,000 • The company’s primary focus is on volume growth and market share
15,000
10,000 with a competitive cost structure.
5,000
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Shree Cement
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

359
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 114,680 116,652 123,160 139,118 164,961 191,782 205,284 235,787 10.8 10.9
EBITDA 26,528 36,745 39,547 36,478 29,423 43,636 49,820 57,458 10.5 14.8
PAT 11,292 15,702 23,017 22,720 11,739 24,684 26,948 29,998 16.9 10.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 92.5 93.4 92.9 91.8 92.4 90.4 90.8 90.9 – –

EBITDA margin 23.1 31.5 32.1 26.2 17.8 22.8 24.3 24.4 – –

PAT margin 9.8 13.5 18.7 16.3 7.1 12.9 13.1 12.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 324.1 435.2 637.9 629.7 325.3 684.2 746.9 831.4 16.1 10.2
BV (Rs) 2,754.7 3,585.1 4,226.3 4,786.8 5,068.9 5,649.8 6,276.7 6,988.1 15.4 11.2
RoCE (%) 11.1 14.3 18.2 16.6 9.0 14.9 15.8 16.0 – –

RoA (%) 9.9 13.0 16.2 14.2 7.4 12.4 13.5 13.7 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 12.2 13.9 16.3 14.0 6.6 12.8 12.5 12.5 – –

Net profit margin 9.8 13.5 18.7 16.3 7.1 12.9 13.1 12.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Shree Cement - 4QFY24 Result Update - 16 May 24.pdf

360
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Shriram Finance

Price (Rs) 2,354
Steady execution continues, return ratios to improve further
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SRTR.BO
Growth
Bloomberg code SHFL IN
• The management continues to maintain 15% AUM growth guidance
Market cap. (US$ mn) 10,605
with 12-15% CV growth guidance entailing higher growth rate for other
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 43.1 businesses. The management will revisit its growth guidance post
Issued shares (mn) 376 1HFY25.
Target price (Rs) 3,050 • Synergies: 45% of the eligible STFC branches now have SCUF
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M products, will be taken to 80-85% over the next four-six quarters. Gold
Absolute (8) (3) 68 loan present in 600 branches and another 600-700 branches can be
Relative (8) (4) 50 further opened. SME to be operated in the hub & spoke model. 1,000
branches are opened, and another 400 branches will be opened
Valuation Ratios
in the near-term. 2,200-2,300 branches can have SME product
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
eventually.
EPS (Rs) 191.3 232.1 280.5 • Farm Equipment: The company tap only 15-20% of the market as rest
BVPS (Rs) 1,292 1,480 1,715 of the market for farm equipments is quarterly of bi-annually EMI
market. Higher stage 3 assets for this segment; however, lower credit
P/E (x) 12.3 10.1 8.4
costs as typically depreciation is much less for these vehicles after
P/BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4
four-five years.
Major Shareholders (%) • 91% of the MSME loans are secured.
Promoters 25 • PV – 80% of the passenger vehicles are for commercial use.
FPIs 54
• Housing subsidiary: The transaction will be completed by January-
MFs 11
February 2025 and was done on FY24 2.8x PBV as the loan book size
BFSI’s 5
was bigger. If the loan book size of Rs 50 bn valuation would have
Public & Others 5
been near 3.5x P/BV levels. The two reasons of the sale of housing
Relative Performance subsidiary 1) Inherent nature of Asset Liability mismatch and 2) Low
3,000 RoAs of 2%.
2,500
2,000 Margins
1,500 • Management is looking to increase the proportion of high yielding
1,000
segments in the overall book and is confident of maintaining margins
500
0 near 8.8-9.1%.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Asset quality
• The company continues to maintain a credit cost guidance of 2.15%
Shriram Finance and expects further improvement of 10-15 bps over the medium-
Sensex (rebased)
term. The company cannot reduce its credit costs below 2%, as 1% is
required for ECL and 1% is due to annual write-offs.

Jigar Jani
Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Return profile
• RoAs will improve by 10-15 bps every year, driven by lower credit costs and lower opex, resulting in RoAs
of 3.3%+ for FY25 and FY26.
• Fee-based income will grow to 2.5x the current levels in the next three years, led by commissions from
insurance products.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) (FY24-26E)

Net Interest Income 172,572 201,915 239,551 279,863 17.7

Operating Expense 49,131 59,895 69,137 77,937 14.1
Operating Profit 123,441 142,020 170,414 201,926 19.2
PAT 59,794 71,905 87,227 105,418 21.1
Shareholder's Fund 433,066 485,684 555,999 644,507 15.2
AUM 1,856,829 2,248,620 2,599,689 3,021,217 15.9
Borrowings 1,579,063 1,858,411 2,148,324 2,492,055 15.8
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Rs) 160 191 232 281 21.1
BV (Rs) 1157 1292 1480 1715 15.2
Margins (%)
NIMs 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 –
Return Profile (%)
ROA 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 –
ROE 15.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 –
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 6.2 5.5 5.0 5.0 –
NNPA 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.4 –
PCR 50.1 50.5 53.1 52.1 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Shriram Finance - 4QFY24 Result Update - 26 Apr 24.pdf

362
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Shriram Pistons & Ring

Price (Rs) 1,934
Strong operating performance; de-risking through EV acquisitions
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code 0.0
• Shriram Pistons & Rings remains dedicated to developing and
Bloomberg code SPRL IN
manufacturing high-quality products for internal combustion
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,021 engines (ICE) and their alternate fuel solutions such as hybrid,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.2 hydrogen and CNG.
Issued shares (mn) 44 • Acquisitions
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M o Additionally, they are strategically diversifying their product
Absolute (6) 18 147 portfolio for future readiness which includes acquiring majority
Relative (6) 18 128 stakes in EMF Innovations, an electronic motor and design and
manufacturing firm, and Takahata Precision Company, a leading
Valuation Ratios
injection moulded parts manufacturing company with a wide
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
range of products in the automotive space, which positions them
EPS (Rs) 37.1 66.6 100.5 to capitalise on the expanding market for electric vehicles (EV), EV
+/- (%) 84.3 79.4 50.8 mobility solutions, and plastic injection molded parts.

PER (x) 52.1 29.0 19.2 • The management expects the CV industry to pick up post-election
and post the new government coming in, there are expectations of
PBV (x) 6.8 5.6 4.4
funds getting released and the newer investments taking off in full
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 0.8 0.5 swing. They expect the market to pick-up very drastically there, and
EV/Sales (x) 4.0 3.1 2.6 the commercial vehicle industry, especially in 3Q and 4Q, is expected
to actually rise from the current levels.
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.3 17.7 12.5
• The company’s EV business has shown promising beginnings,
Major Shareholders (%)
with products undergoing testing and development with multiple
Promoters 47 customers. In response to anticipated growth in the EV market,
FPIs 1
they are swiftly expanding their capacities by acquiring land in
BFSI’s 13
Coimbatore for a new factory dedicated to manufacturing EV
Public & Others 39
motors and additional production lines. SPR express optimism
Relative Performance about the expected healthy volumes in this sector.
2,500 • With technological advancements such as ethanol blending or using
2,000 hydrogen as a fuel, significant changes in piston design and overall
1,500
approach is necessary to optimise efficiency. This entails extensive
1,000
design work, including unique features like case-like pistons with
500
specific bowl shapes. Consequently, the content required for vehicles
0
increases due to the technology involved, including coatings and
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

other requirements.

Shriram Pistons & Ring

• While the transition from Euro 4 to Euro 6 saw moderate content
Sensex (rebased) improvements, shifts towards hydrogen and ethanol are expected
to result in higher content requirements.

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Government initiatives, such as E85 blending, are already underway, prompting the company to
develop solutions with specialised coatings for rings and other components. Overall, adapting to
these technological changes demands a higher level of technology application, leading to increased
content in vehicles.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 19,549 16,068 15,966 20,647 26,093 30,893 9.6

EBITDA 2,939 1,820 2,155 3,045 4,604 6,420 16.9
PAT 1,389 711 880 1,636 2,935 4,426 26.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 64.7 63.6 64.2 61.9 57.9 59.6 –

EBITDA margin 15.0 11.3 13.5 14.7 17.6 20.8 –
PAT margin 7.1 4.4 5.5 7.9 11.1 14.3 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 15.5 8.2 20.2 37.2 66.6 100.5 45.4
BV (Rs) 113.6 118.5 260.6 284.9 346.8 437.2 30.9
RoCE (%) 19.5 8.2 10.3 16.5 23.9 27.2 –
RoA (%) 9.1 4.5 8.1 13.0 19.3 22.3 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 14.4 7.0 8.0 13.6 21.1 25.6 –

Net profit margin 7.1 4.4 5.6 7.9 11.2 14.3 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Shyam Metalics

Price (Rs) 610
Strong outlook ahead…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SHYE.BO
• In Mittal Corp, the company expects Rs 15.0-18.0 bn in revenue for FY25
Bloomberg code SHYAMMET IN
and a capacity utilisation rate of 75-80%.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,040
• Expected capex spend in FY25 is Rs 20.0 bn and Rs 18.0 bn in FY26.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 9.0
• The company also expects volume growth of 12-15% in FY25 and 20% in
Issued shares (mn) 279 FY26.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
• The company has inaugurated a new Stainless-Steel Hot Rolled Coils
Absolute (3) (6) 106 (HRC) facility at its Sambalpur plant. This newly established facility has
Relative (3) (6) 88 a 0.3 million MT (mmtpa) capacity specialising in production of 200
Valuation Ratios and 400 series stainless steel hot rolled coils.

Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 • They have also planned an expansion of its railway infrastructure
at their Sambalpur plant. With the plant’s enhanced capacity, the
EPS (Rs) 67.6 33.3 40.3
current rail infrastructure can handle ~60% of the increased volume of
Change (%) 104.4 (50.8) 21.3 inward raw materials and outward rakes for finished goods which will
PER (x) 9.0 18.3 15.1 improve to 100% with this capex.

PBV (x) 2.7 2.2 1.6 • The company has initiated the acquisition process for a 20-acre land
parcel at Mittal Corp to enhance long product segment, wherein the
Div./Yield (%) 0.8 0.3 0.4
company will establish SS bright bars capacity of 25,000 mtpa and
EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.3 1.1 SS wires division with a capacity of 18,000 mtpa. These projects are
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 10.8 9.4 expected to be completed by FY27 for a capex outlay of Rs 6.5-7.0 bn.

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 75
FPIs 3
MFs 2
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 18

Relative Performance
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Shyam Metalics & Energy.

Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

365
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-FY24)

Financials

Sales 46,005 43,764 62,971 103,940 126,102 131,952 23.5

EBITDA 9,353 6,661 13,938 25,997 14,859 15,700 10.9
PAT 6,358 3,402 8,436 17,242 8,484 10,290 10.1
Margin (%)

Gross Margin 39.5 38.8 39.1 39.3 28.9 28.2 –

EBITDA Margin 20.3 15.2 22.1 25.0 11.8 11.9 –
PAT Margin 13.8 7.8 13.4 16.6 6.7 7.8 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.3 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1)

EPS (Rs) 25.8 13.3 33.1 67.6 33.3 40.3 9.3
BV (Rs) 101.1 110.8 142.5 228.7 280.8 378.2 30.2
ROCE (%) 47.8 10.0 25.2 42.1 14.4 10.7 –
RoA (%) 40.8 8.4 21.3 34.5 11.6 8.4 –
DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) 51.1 12.8 26.1 36.4 13.1 12.2 –

Net Profit Margin 13.8 7.8 13.4 16.6 6.7 7.8 –
Asset Turnover (x) 2.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 –
Leverage Factor (x) 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data SIS

Price (Rs) 405
Integrated solutions would be the MOAT
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SISI.BO
• SIS is continuing to focus on margin accretion as the key performance
Bloomberg code SECIS IN
indicator to drive business growth. With this thought process, the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 699 company is expected to keep shredding some of its lower margin
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.7 contracts in segments like India Security business, International
Issued shares (mn) 144 Security business (specially Henderson) as well as Facilities
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Management Solutions (FMS) in the future.

Absolute (13) (8) 2 • Primarily a staffing provider, the company now aims to de-link its

Relative (14) (8) (16) revenue growth to its headcount growth by positioning itself as an
integrated solutions provider and prioritising more non-manpower-
Valuation Ratios
oriented contracts like its alarm business VProtect billing over Rs
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 1,000 mn having 20% margins.
EPS (Rs) 22.1 23.7 13.1 • While FY24 growth has come on the back of a one-handed support
+/- (%) (11.0) 7.5 (44.6) from the India Security business, the company is confident about its
the rest of the pillars like International Security, Facilities Management
PER (x) 18.3 17.0 30.8
Solutions and acquisitions lending their helping hand for a better
PBV (x) 2.9 2.5 2.4 FY25.
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.6 0.5 • The company’s plans to de-merge and listing of its cash business
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.2 13.6 12.7 under FMS segment are on track to file for SEBI and NCLT approvals
over the next month. 2HFY25 will probably see these plans achieving
Major Shareholders (%)
fruition.
Promoters 72
• SIS’s recent investment in an elderly care start-up Age Care Labs
FPIs 17
under the Emoha brand is expected to drive synergies due to their
MFs 2
Public & Others 9
needs of manpower and training along with security solutions like
VProtect. With a 4% stake, the company remains the second largest
Relative Performance
shareholder and further plans to increase its stake through follow-
800
700
up tranches basis good performance.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

SIS
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY17-24)

Financials

Sales 43,872 58,334 70,933 84,852 91,273 100,591 113,458 122,614 15.8
EBITDA 2,204 3,120 3,652 5,204 5,208 4,985 4,915 5,188 13.0
PAT 1,097 1,639 2,147 2,255 3,654 3,259 3,465 1,900 8.2
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 5.0 5.3 5.1 6.1 5.7 5.0 4.3 4.2 –

PAT margin 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 4.0 3.2 3.1 1.5 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 –

EPS (Rs) 29.3 23.4 19.7 15.4 24.8 22.1 23.7 13.1 –

BV (Rs) 157.7 146.6 114.7 94.8 124.2 140.3 159.8 167.0 –

RoCE (%) 16.5 17.2 12.4 13.7 26.1 12.3 9.9 9.4 –

RoA (%) 11.0 12.1 9.0 10.0 18.3 8.7 7.2 6.8 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 21.1 20.3 18.8 17.1 22.7 16.7 15.7 8.0 –

Net profit margin 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 4.0 3.2 3.1 1.5 –

Asset turnover (x) 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 –

Leverage factor (x) 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sonata Software

Price (Rs) 515
Expects 20% of the revenue to come from AI in three years’ time…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SOFT.BO
• Key factors for long-term growth include increased traction in Microsoft
Bloomberg code SSOF IN
Fabric, substantial growth in Quant, progress in Client Mining, and the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,732 inclusion of Fortune 20 clients among the top 10 accounts.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 7.3 • Currently, cost take-outs deals hold the majority share in the
Issued shares (mn) 280 pipeline. However, the company expects strategic deals to gradually
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M increase their share over the next four-five quarters. Sonata Software
Absolute (25) (36) 6 (SONATSOFTW) has experienced longer cycles to close large deals, a

Relative (26) (37) (12) trend expected to persist for another one or two quarters.
• The large deal pipeline looks healthy, and the Data and Cloud pipeline
Valuation Ratios
represents about 40% of the total pipeline. The company continues
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
to see a significant number of large deals in its harvest and invest
EPS (Rs) 13.5 16.3 11.1 verticals. The company is comfortable with winning ratio of 35-40%.
+ / -(%) 54.3 20.0 (31.7) • Overall, QoQ growth will begin in 1QFY25, but robust growth is expected

PER (x) 38.3 31.9 46.7 to return only in 2H of the year.

• The goal is to become one of the fastest-growing modernisation
PBV (x) 13.1 11.1 10.2
engineering firms, targeting a run rate of US$ 0.5 bn for the international
Div./ Yield (%) 1.3 1.6 1.5
business by the end of FY26, with an EBITDA in the low 20s.
EV/ Sales (x) 2.4 1.9 1.7 • The 4QFY24 results were poor due to 1) several clients in the
EV/ EBITDA (x) 29.2 23.6 19.7 recently acquired Quant portfolio from the BFSI sector delaying
the commencement of a significant new deal. This large deal is
Major Shareholders (%)
expected to take another two to three quarters to fully ramp-up and
Promoters 28
2) additionally, a portion of the portfolio was affected by discretionary
FPIs 15
delays, but it is expected to recover.
MFs 18
BFSI’s 2 • The BFSI and Retail sectors are projected to see flat to moderate
Public & Others 38 growth due to sectoral headwinds.
• The company has continued to witness green shoots in Hi-tech,
Relative Performance
followed by the Healthcare business.
1,000
800 • The company is not much focused on travel vertical and expects
600 stable growth going ahead.
400 • Sonata made two significant new bets in the year: GenAI and Microsoft
200 Fabric, both of which are on a path to scale Sonata.
0
• Sonata expects investment to the tune of 1-1.5% of revenue; if some
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

large deals come up, it may inch-up to 2-4% as well.

• Even though domestic business has declined sequentially, the
Sonata Software
Sensex (rebased) management still expects growth of 10-15% in the upcoming years,
which they hope to maintain over the next two to three years.

Deep Shah Aayush Rastogi Keval Bhagat

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com aayush.rastogi@bksec.com keval.bhagat@bksec.com

369
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Overall, the US$ 1.5 bn revenue run rate target will also be delayed by two-three quarters, pushing it from
4QFY26 to the following year.
• The company continues to witness a significant pipeline build for Microsoft Fabric since its launch about
three quarters ago, with a current pipeline of about US$ 42 mn across 75+ clients.
• Margins will improve from 4Q levels, but the historical level of 22% is not expected to come back soon.
• The company is open to M&A opportunities.
• In AI, Sonata has a pipeline of over US$ 65 mn across 90-plus clients and prospects. The company expects
20% of its revenue to come from AI services in the next three years.
• The company has employed Gen AI multiple use cases internally for the company.
• The company is bringing the use cases by domain or industry based. The company is also bringing in
vertical agnostic Gen AI use cases.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 29,609 37,433 42,281 55,534 74,491 86,131 23.8

EBITDA 3,356 3,728 3,794 4,638 6,041 7,274 18.2

PAT 2,493 2,769 2,440 3,764 4,519 3,085 2.7

Margin (%)

EBITDA Margin 11.3 10.0 9.0 8.4 8.1 8.4 –

EBIT Margin 10.9 9.0 8.0 7.5 7.3 6.9 –

PAT Margin 8.4 7.4 5.8 6.8 6.1 3.6 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) (0.4) (0.7) (0.8) (0.1) (0.1) –

EPS (Rs.) 8.9 9.9 8.7 13.4 16.3 11.1 3.0

BV (Rs.) 28 24 33 40 47 51 20.4

RoCE (%) 46.3 46.5 37.3 43.2 33.4 30.8 –

RoA (%) 25.4 25.1 20.6 23.0 17.8 15.2 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 35.1 38.5 31.0 37.6 37.7 22.8 –

Net profit margin 8.4 7.4 5.8 6.8 6.1 3.6 –

Asset Turnover (x) 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.8 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.9 3.5 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data SRF

Price (Rs) 2,211
Near-term challenges continue, recovery expected in 2HFY25
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SRFL.BO
• SRF anticipates a 20% growth in the chemicals business for FY25 with
Bloomberg code SRF IN
recovery expected in 2HFY25. EBIT margins for FY25 to be at ~26%.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 7,856
• The Rs 18.0 bn capex commissioned in FY24 for the specialty chemical
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 16.3 business was for 7 new dedicated plants (6-Agro, 1-Pharma) and
Issued shares (mn) 296 some backward integration. Management expects these plants to
Target price (Rs) 2,191 ramp-up in the next 18-24 months with an expected asset turnover
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M of 0.9x to 1.1x at peak utilisation.

Absolute (16) (7) (12) • SRF have reduced costs by ~60% in DFPA hence absolute conversion
Relative (16) (8) (30) margins won’t be affected.
• The company will be able to sell between 8,000-13,000 tonnes of
Valuation Ratios
incremental refrigerant gas volumes from the new capacities
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The Rs 5.5 bn aluminium foil project has been capitalised and will
EPS (Rs) 45.1 62.4 76.6
start meaningfully contributing in FY25 with expectations of 1.2x
+/- (%) (38.2) 38.6 22.6 asset turnover at peak. Plant is running at 35% utilisation with teething
PER (x) 50.9 36.7 29.9 problems behind.
• FY24 was a particularly bad year with lower refrigerant gas prices and
Price/Book (x) 5.9 5.2 4.5
delays in placing existing specialty chemicals products. However,
EV/Sales (x) 5.5 4.8 4.2
refrigerant gas prices are witnessing some recoveries and new
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.9 20.5 17.2 product inquiries have remained upbeat, which indicated a better
Major Shareholders (%) FY25.

Promoters 50 • SRF plans to first evaluate prospects and then foray into
FPIs 19 Fluoropolymers. The company has started with PTFE (plans to
MFs 8 backward integrate into VDF) and plans to back it up with PVDF, FKM
BFSI’s 8 and PFA.
Public & Others 15 • Management expects consolidation in packaging films (PF) globally.
Relative Performance Overall, industry utilisations remain lower with SRF operating at even
3,500 lower levels. BoPET to see challenges in FY25, while BoPP should do
3,000 relatively better.
2,500
2,000 • Through capacitor grade films SRF is trying to bring in VAP to its PF
1,500 portfolio and target niche areas in the electronics manufacturing
1,000
500 landscape.
0
• SRF is also planning to enter the B2C market in ref gas through
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

FLUORON.

SRF
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

371
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 70,996 72,094 84,000 124,337 148,703 131,385 149,436 171,751 13.1 14.3

EBITDA 12,970 14,550 21,415 31,032 35,292 25,841 35,016 41,680 14.8 27.0

PAT 5,916 7,955 12,061 18,889 21,623 13,357 18,509 22,696 17.7 30.4

Margin (%)

Gross margin 44.1 48.9 52.2 51.2 50.3 48.9 51.4 52.6 – –

EBITDA margin 18.3 20.2 25.5 25.0 23.7 19.7 23.4 24.3 – –

PAT margin 8.3 11.0 14.4 15.2 14.5 10.2 12.4 13.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 – –

EPS (Rs) 20.0 26.9 40.7 63.7 72.9 45.1 62.4 76.6 17.7 30.4

BV (Rs) 139.4 166.5 231.5 289.0 348.4 387.3 440.4 506.7 22.7 14.4

RoCE (%) 12.6 12.7 17.5 22.6 20.9 11.4 14.4 15.6 – –

RoA (%) 10.6 10.7 14.7 18.8 17.5 9.7 12.6 13.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 15.4 17.6 20.5 24.5 22.9 12.3 15.1 16.2 – –

Net profit margin 8.3 11.0 14.4 15.2 14.5 10.2 12.4 13.2 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/SRF - 4QFY24 Result Update - 09 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Star Health and Allied Insurance Company

Price (Rs) 521
Eyeing industry-leading growth and better profitability
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code STAU.BO
• Industry growth this year is expected to be 15-17% and management
Bloomberg code STARHEAL IN
aspires to grow by 1.1-1.2x of the same.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,652
• IFRS PAT and RoE are significantly higher in FY24 compared to reported
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 5.8 profits, driven by deferment of cost and MTM from ETF portfolio.
Issued shares (mn) 585 • Management does not think of pricing as an impediment given that
Target price (Rs) 670 ~95% of the policies in semi-urban and rural geographies have sum
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M insured above Rs 0.3 mn, and 70-75% of the overall policies have sum
Absolute (9) (7) (3) insured above Rs 0.5 mn (up from 70% in the prior year).
Relative (9) (7) (22) • The master circular guidelines will help benefit customers who are
not reporting claims to get a premium discount which will address
Valuation Ratios
pricing issue (or customer can opt for enhanced SI),
Yr to 31 Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E
• As per industry sources, 8% of claims are Fraud Waste and Abuse
EPS (Rs) 14.5 19.0 22.4
(FWA). For Star Health, 2.0-2.5% of such claims have been addressed
PER (X) 35.9 27.4 23.2 due to analytics and presence of in-house TPA.
BVPS (Rs) 113.9 132.9 149.7 • Benefit products are currently 2.0-2.5% of the mix and management
aspires to take it to 4.0-4.5%. The product has a 90% COR with
P/B (X) 4.6 3.9 3.5
better loss ratios but higher cost of acquisition. The growth will be
Major Shareholders (%)
undertaken through banca and digital cross sell.
Promoters 58
FPIs 27
MFs 8
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 4

Relative Performance
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Star Health & Allied Insurance Co

Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Kartikeya Mohata

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com kartikeya.mohata@bksec.com

373
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

GDPI 54,013 68,651 93,885 1,14,635 1,29,525 1,52,545 1,77,113 2,03,457 22.1 15.5
NEP 36,624 46,841 46,266 98,092 1,12,616 1,29,383 1,52,620 1,72,628 28.9 15.5
Underwriting result 1,142 1,607 (17,316) (20,616) 2,046 903 3,664 4,760 – –
PAT 1,834 2,633 (10,857) (10,407) 6,186 8,450 11,044 13,054 – 24.3
Key Ratios (%)
Retention Ratio 76.0 76.0 76.0 94.0 95.0 92.0 92.0 92.0 – –
Claims Ratio 62.7 65.9 94.4 87.1 65.0 66.5 65.1 65.0 – –
Commission Ratio 6.2 6.5 8.2 13.8 13.7 13.2 13.2 13.0 – –
Expense Ratio 24.1 20.9 19.5 17.0 16.7 17.0 17.2 16.8 – –
Combined Ratio 93.0 93.3 122.1 117.9 95.3 96.7 95.5 94.7 – –
RoE 17.7 19.6 (37.0) (26.0) 12.4 14.4 15.4 15.6 – –
Investment Yield - 6.8 6.9 7.1 8.7 6.7 7.4 7.0 7.0 – –
Policyholders
Valuation Ratios (x)
EPS 3.2 4.5 (18.7) (17.9) 10.6 14.5 19.0 22.4 – –
P/E – – – – 51.7 35.9 27.4 23.2 – –
BVPS – – 63.9 108.1 112.8 113.9 132.9 149.7 – –
P/B – – 7.6 5.1 4.9 4.6 3.9 3.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Star Health and Allied Insurance Company - 4QFY24
Result Update - 30 Apr 24.pdf

374
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Steel Strips Wheels

Price (Rs) 215
Diversified product portfolio
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code STWH.BO
Future outlook for the segments
Bloomberg code SSW IN
• CV segment: In an election year, the company has observed a slight
Market cap. (US$ mn) 404
slowdown in the CV industry domestically, followed by anticipation
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.2 of monsoon effects. Forecasts for this year range from flat to modest
Issued shares (mn) 157 growth, despite achieving the highest CV volume last year.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Aluminium wheel: In the domestic aluminium wheel business,
Absolute (7) (15) 45 there is an expectation of a 10% growth driven by past performance
Relative (7) (15) 27 and nominated projects. This growth projection underscores the
company’s confidence in its products coming into play to boost the
Valuation Ratios
aluminium wheel segment.
Yr to 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23
• Two-wheeler industry: In the two-wheeler industry, the company
EPS (Rs) 3.1 13.1 12.4
has strategically targeted the electric vehicle (EV) sector, establishing
+/- (%) 110.0 317.2 (5.7) leadership in wheels for EVs. This focus on EVs is expected to result in

PER (x) 22.9 13.0 11.9 significant value addition, driving a projected growth of about 16% in
this business segment.
PBV (x) 1.5 2.8 2.0
• Passenger Car Steel Wheel: Last year, there was a decline in the
Div./Yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.7
company’s passenger car steel wheel business, attributed to
EV/Sales (x) 15.8 8.8 (1.1) foregoing certain projects with Maruti Suzuki India due to insufficient

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 7.5 6.6 margins. However, this year, there is a positive outlook as the company
projects a 10.6% growth in the steel wheel segment for passenger
Major Shareholders (%)
cars.
Promoters 61
• Tractors: The company’s tractor business holds significant
FPIs 6
importance, with signed long-term agreements (LTAs) with prominent
MFs 2
customers anticipated to drive a 12% growth. Despite a potential flat
BFSI’s 2
growth in the industry overall, the company expects to increase
Public & Others 29
its share of the industry pie, indicating a notable rise in the tractor
Relative Performance business. This growth projection translates to ~30% growth in revenue
350 both in terms of volume and value.
300
250 • Exports: The company’s export business, which saw a revival last
200
year, is projected to grow by another 10% this year. In expanding their
150
100 export portfolio, the company is introducing new product lines such
50
as off-road vehicle wheels. They’ve gained traction in Europe and
0
America, steadily increasing sales in the off-road vehicle segment.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Moreover, their alloy wheel exports are performing notably well,

Steel Strips Wheels

further contributing to the export business’s growth.
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Furthermore, the company introduced a new business line last year involving Aluminium knuckles,
which is expected to contribute to revenue starting in September of this year. As the first company in
India to venture into this field, they’ve positioned themselves as an import substitute. Initially signed up
with one OEM, the company has now secured agreements with two OEMs. The aluminium knuckles are
primarily targeted for SUV segment cars, where OEMs prioritise enhancing features like maneuverability
while strengthening their pricing power.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 CAGR (%)
(FY19-23)
Financials

Sales 20,412 15,633 17,494 35,600 40,405 18.6

EBITDA 2,460 1,712 2,038 4,528 4,428 15.8
PAT 824 234 493 2,055 1,938 23.9
Margin (%)

Gross margin 33.7 37.7 38.1 37.6 33.5 –

EBITDA margin 12.1 11.0 11.7 12.7 11.0 –
PAT margin 4.0 1.5 2.8 5.8 4.8 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 –

EPS (Rs) 5.3 1.5 3.1 13.1 12.4 23.8
BV (Rs) 42.2 44.6 47.9 60.8 72.5 14.5
RoCE (%) 12.0 6.8 7.8 19.7 18.5 –
RoA (%) 9.3 5.6 6.5 15.3 13.7 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 13.3 3.5 6.8 24.2 18.6 –

Net profit margin 4.0 1.5 2.8 5.8 4.8 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.5 –
Leverage factor (x) 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sterling Tools

Price (Rs) 351
Traction in EV subsidiary; key triggers
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code STTL.BO
• Sterling Tools has signed an MoU with Yongin Electronics of South
Bloomberg code STRT IN
Korea to establish an EV components facility in India. This strategic
Market cap. (US$ mn) 152 partnership aims to generate ~Rs 2 bn in business annually over the
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.5 next five years, marking a significant advancement in electronic
Issued shares (mn) 36 component production within the country. The first phase investment
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M is expected to be of the magnitude of Rs 200-250 mn.

Absolute (0) (0) 2 • In line with this initiative, the Board has approved investments in

Relative (0) (1) (16) Sterling E-Mobility Private Limited and Sterling Tech Mobility
Limited, transforming them into wholly owned subsidiaries of Sterling
Valuation Ratios
Tools Limited.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• The company has successfully ramped up production volumes of
EPS (Rs) 7.3 12.3 15.3 motor control units to meet customer demand, currently producing
+/- (%) 8.9 69.9 23.7 over 2,000 units daily, translating to a capacity of 600,000 units for the
full year. They aim to further optimise output by de-bottlenecking and
PER (x) 48.3 28.5 23.0
improving process flows.
PBV (x) 3.6 3.2 2.8
• The company experienced a modest 2% revenue growth in their
Div./Yield (%) 0.3 0.6 0.6 fastener business for FY24 compared to the previous year. SSW
EV/Sales (x) 2.7 1.7 1.4 believe that with the existing capacities, including those at their
Bengaluru facility, and ongoing maintenance capex and capacity
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.4 13.7 11.9
enhancements, substantial additional capex in the fastener vertical
Major Shareholders (%) is not necessary. They anticipate reaching a revenue range of Rs. 7.5-
Promoters 66 8.0 bn in the short-term with the ramp-up of the Bengaluru plant and
MFs 5 balancing of production across facilities.
Public & Others 29
• The company’s EV component business has seen significant growth,
Relative Performance comprising 35% of consolidated revenue in FY23, up from 23%. They
500 intend to bolster their fastener business, while maintaining margin
400 expectations, focusing solely on high-value parts. The company
300 plans to allocate substantial financial and human resources into new
200 initiatives within the EV ecosystem and green energy systems.
100
• SSW anticipates healthy growth in the two-wheeler and PV segments
0
this year, with expectations of surpassing peak numbers seen in FY18
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

and FY19. This growth is attributed to the strong SUV market in India.
Conversely, they expect flat or marginally negative growth in the farm
Sterling Tools
Sensex (rebased)
equipment segment, with CVs remaining range-bound within a flat or
slightly fluctuating range.
• The company is addressing portfolio issues while expecting overall
growth in line with the industry across all segments combined.

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

377
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

However, they may lag in the PV segment due to their significant partnership with Maruti, and in the two-
wheeler segment, where they primarily collaborate with HMSI. Despite this, the company anticipates
growing within industry growth numbers on a gross basis.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 5,122 3,642 3,555 5,096 7,720 9,320 12.7

EBITDA 859 602 618 666 975 1,078 4.6
PAT 441 298 240 262 444 550 4.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin 55.9 66.1 61.5 54.0 48.1 46.4 –

EBITDA margin 16.8 16.5 17.4 13.1 12.6 11.6 –
PAT margin 8.6 8.2 6.8 5.2 5.8 5.9 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 –

EPS (Rs) 12.5 8.5 6.7 7.3 12.4 15.3 4.1
BV (Rs) 77.9 85.1 92.0 98.8 111.2 124.1 9.8
RoCE (%) 21.3 10.6 8.9 8.6 12.7 13.9 –
RoA (%) 32.1 9.5 8.0 7.8 11.2 11.9 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.2 10.4 7.6 7.6 11.8 13.0 –

Net profit margin 8.6 8.2 6.8 5.2 5.8 5.9 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Stovekraft

Price (Rs) 481
Distribution exspansion to drive growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code STOE.BO
• While current demand is not very strong, the company is optimistic
Bloomberg code STOVEKRA IN
about growth to continue on the back of new channels and product
Market cap. (US$ mn) 190 launches. There were no significant pricing challenges that it faced
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.8 during the year.
Issued shares (mn) 33.1 • During the year, volume growth stood at 21-22% and expects the run-
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M rate to remain in the same range going ahead.
Absolute 6 (2) 14 • While the company leads in the value consumer base segment, it
Relative 6 (2) (5) maintains its focus on growth across various categories.

Valuation Ratios • The company aspires to reach EBITDA margin range of 10-11% and
grow at a steady pace similar to last five years CAGR which is ~19%. It is
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
confident of improving gross margins.
EPS (Rs) 17.0 10.8 10.3
• It also plans to incur Rs 500 mn in FY25, of which Rs 310 mn is towards
+/- (%) (30.8) (36.4) (4.5) retail. They expect to become debt-free by FY25 end.
PER (x) 28.1 44.2 46.4 • Stovekraft added 117 stores in FY24 translating to 9-10 stores per month,
PBV (x) 4.3 3.9 3.6 exceeding its initial target of 7-8 stores per month. They now have a
total of 171 stores in 50 cities. These stores will address brand salience
EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.3 1.3
and contribute to the margins.
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.4 17.1 14.4
• The company plans to continue expanding retail presence across
Major Shareholders (%) strategic locations in the country. It will also focus on in-house
Promoters 56 manufacturing and enhancing backward integration for superior
FPIs 1 quality, agility, and cost efficiencies.
MFs 2 • It is converting existing company owned stores to franchisee operated
BFSI’s 1 model and plans to open 25-30 stores per quarter under franchise
Public & Others 40
model.
Relative Performance • It launched various products that combines cutting-edge technology
1,000 and unmatched ethics for health-conscious customers. Their new
800 set of products combines global copper design standards and local
600 craftmanship which ensures exceptional cooking experience. This will
400 boost their revenue growth and profitability.
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Stove Kraft.
Sensex (rebased)
s

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 6,409 6,699 8,590 11,364 12,838 13,643 16.3

EBITDA 301 338 1,128 948 990 1,188 31.6

PAT 14 25 812 562 358 341 88.7

Margin (%)

Gross margin 31.6 34.0 35.0 31.9 32.7 36.9 –

EBITDA margin 4.7 5.0 13.1 8.3 7.7 8.7 –

PAT margin 0.2 0.4 9.5 4.9 2.8 2.5 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (4.6) (5.3) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 –

EPS (Rs) 0.4 0.7 24.6 17.0 10.8 10.3 88.7

BV (Rs) (18.4) (17.8) 91.6 110.2 122.1 133.0 NA

RoCE (%) 15.6 9.0 31.5 17.8 12.0 10.7 –

RoA (%) 9.3 5.3 19.2 11.3 7.8 7.0 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (4.7) (4.1) 66.5 16.9 9.3 8.1 –

Net profit margin 0.2 0.4 9.5 4.9 2.8 2.5 –

Asset turnover (x) 3.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 –

Leverage factor (x) (7.0) (7.5) 4.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Subros

Price (Rs) 609
Medium-term triggers; Truck ACs and Railways
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SUBR.BO
• Margin expansion would be driven primarily by operating leverage,
Bloomberg code SUBR IN
import substitution with localisation currently at 83% and product
Market cap. (US$ mn) 476 mix and premiumisation. There would be no margin depression in the
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.4 railways, bus and truck segment initially with proportionate growth
Issued shares (mn) 65 expected in these segments. Margins are expected to be stabilise ~10-
Target price (Rs) 791 12% in the future in line with industry growth expectations of 10% CAGR
over the next three years
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (2) 3 86 • Currently, the revenue ratio between auto and non-auto segment
is 92% and 8%, respectively. The company has plans to further
Relative (2) 2 68
expand the revenue generated from non-auto segment to 15% in
Valuation Ratios
the medium-term and 25% in the long-term.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• Revenue in railways is currently generated on a tender basis of Rs 40
EPS 15.0 24.5 30.4 mn and the company aspires to generate Rs 8-10 bn over a period of

+/- (%) 102.7 63.5 24.4 three-five years. The competition in the railways segment for Subros
currently is from Sidwal & Amber and they will be catering to Vande
PER 40.7 24.9 20.0
Bharat and Amrit Bharat trains and then focus on Metro trains.
PBV 4.2 3.6 3.1
• With an incremental annual capex of Rs 1-2 bn for two-three years,
Dividend Yield 0.2 0.3 0.3 Subros can generate a maximum of Rs 35 bn in revenue. Expanding

EV/Sales 1.3 1.0 0.8

the topline further the management guided they would need to go for
an additional expansion capex.
EV/EBITDA 15.3 10.8 8.6
• The car and truck cabin size would be very similar and hence the cost
Major Shareholders (%) difference would not be significant. However, the bus aircon would be
Promoters 37 ~20x of the car or trucks.
FPIs 33
• The company has grown commensurate with Maruti SUV growth and
MFs 10
they have been the single supplier to Grand Vitara and Maruti Brezza.
Public & Others 20
However, major disruptions have come from full model changes of
Relative Performance existing OEMs which requires re-RFQ or new model launches. There
800 is price competition to penetrate the market and cater to the OEMs.
700
600 Despite the disruption, Subros can demand better pricing in three-five
500
years once the product has matured.
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Subros
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

381
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 21,245 19,928 17,957 22,386 28,063 30,705 34,822 39,670 7.6 13.7
EBITDA 2,281 1,890 1,538 1,487 1,676 2,542 3,243 3,801 2.2 22.3
PAT 761 846 479 326 482 977 1,597 1,986 5.1 42.6
Margin (%)

Gross margin 30.1 29.4 28.2 25.8 23.4 25.2 25.7 25.6 – –

EBITDA margin 10.7 9.5 8.6 6.6 6.0 8.3 9.3 9.6 – –

PAT margin 3.7 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.7 3.2 4.6 5.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) – –

EPS (Rs) 12.2 6.6 7.3 5.0 7.4 15.0 24.5 30.4 4.2 42.6
BV (Rs) 104.3 115.3 121.8 126.2 132.9 146.5 169.2 197.6 7.0 16.1
RoCE (%) 20.0 13.4 8.3 6.3 8.1 14.9 19.7 21.4 – –

RoA (%) 11.9 8.6 5.2 3.8 5.1 9.5 12.3 13.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 14.6 6.0 6.2 4.0 5.7 10.7 15.5 16.6 – –

Net profit margin 3.7 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.7 3.2 4.6 5.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Subros - 4QFY24 Result Update - 24 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sudarshan Chemical Industries

Price (Rs) 786
Meaningful opportunities opened up from Heubach’s insolvency
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SDCH.BO
• Management has planned to accelerate the utilisation of the new
Bloomberg code SCHI IN
capex as compared to its earlier guidance of gradual ramp-up in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 652 four years. FY25 capex to be ~Rs 1.0 bn, largely maintenance related.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.9 • Heubach’s insolvency has opened up several avenues for Sudarshan
Issued shares (mn) 69 Chemical Industries especially in the coatings pigments where
Target price (Rs) 900 Heubach had a strong presence.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Global consolidation has accelerated product samplings to
Absolute 6 34 70 customers as well has enabled Sudarshan’s engagement with new
Relative 6 33 51 set of customers.
• The company also plans to have new projects on backward
Valuation Ratios
integration (manufacturing of raw materials in-house) as well as
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
forward integration (pigment dispersions, digital pigments).
EPS (Rs) 15.0 26.2 36.3
• Sudarshan’s product portfolio remains the most comprehensive
+/- (%) 132.4 74.2 38.8 with it being at par to the combined portfolio of the top two players
PER (x) 52.2 30.0 21.6 globally.
• The company is the 3rd largest player globally and boasts a 35%
Price/Book (x) 4.7 4.3 3.7
domestic market share in pigments. Sudarshan also holds global
EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.0 1.7
cost leadership in effect pigments.
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.4 14.4 11.2 • On the end-user side, the plastic segment saw ramp-up with
Major Shareholders (%) customers stocking up, while the printing ink segment witnessed
Promoters 33 muted growth.
FPIs 4 • Specialty versus non-specialty mix in FY24 was at 68% versus 32%,
MFs 13 with the specialty mix expected to go up by 4-5% after full utilisation
BFSI’s 4 of newly commissioned capex.
Public & Others 45
• Working capital cycle is currently at optimal levels with slight scope
Relative Performance of improvement possible; however, the company might take some
1,000 calls in terms of stocking up at the overseas marketing arms.
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Sudarshan Chemical Industries

Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

383
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 15,691 16,809 18,443 21,833 22,768 25,143 29,272 33,218 9.9 14.9

EBITDA 2,040 2,463 2,878 2,748 2,106 3,164 4,017 5,031 9.2 26.1

PAT 832 1,312 1,411 1,300 448 1,040 1,812 2,516 4.6 55.5

Margin (%)

Gross margin 40.0 41.9 42.5 41.8 39.9 43.7 43.4 43.4 – –

EBITDA margin 12.8 14.4 15.4 12.5 9.2 12.5 13.6 15.0 – –

PAT margin 5.3 7.8 7.7 6.0 2.0 4.1 6.2 7.6 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 12.0 18.9 20.4 18.8 6.5 15.0 26.2 36.3 4.6 55.5

BV (Rs) 81.3 87.6 107.4 120.4 119.6 166.0 184.3 211.6 15.3 12.9

RoCE (%) 14.9 16.3 15.9 11.9 5.7 10.0 14.5 18.2 – –

RoA (%) 10.9 11.9 11.5 8.7 4.3 7.4 10.6 13.2 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 16.6 22.4 20.9 16.5 5.4 10.5 14.9 18.4 – –

Net profit margin 5.3 7.8 7.7 6.0 2.0 4.1 6.2 7.6 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Sudarshan Chemical Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update
- 21 May 24.pdf

384
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sula Vineyards

Price (Rs) 522
Focus on becoming a national leader…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SULA.NS
Distribution network
Bloomberg code SULA IN
• Currently, the B2B network is less than 30%. Earlier, this ratio was
Market cap. (US$ mn) 528
skewed towards institutional. Post Covid-19 trends changed.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.3
• The dependence of Maharashtra and Karnataka has reduced, and
Issued shares (mn) 84 the contribution has come down to 55%. The company is exploring
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M opportunities to tie-up with national chains. It is looking into
Absolute (4) (1) 23 opportunities in Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi.
Relative (5) (1) 5 • The company generally launched its best products in Tier 1 cities of
Valuation Ratios the state. After receiving the desired results, it plans its expansion in
other Tiers.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
Wine tourism
EPS (Rs) 6.8 10.2 11.1
• The business contributes ~10% to overall topline.
+/- (%) 872.9 50.1 8.5
• The company started this segment to supplement brand visibility.
PER (x) 71.0 47.3 43.6
• Now, the business is gaining good traction in this area. The focus is
PBV (x) 9.4 7.5 7.4 not on increasing its contribution but on increasing brand awareness
EV/Sales (x) 9.2 8.0 7.5 and visibility.

EV/EBITDA (x) 34.5 26.2 24.2 • Overall, tourist accommodation has increased substantially. Footfalls
increased by 42% last year.
Major Shareholders (%)
Raw materials abundance
Promoters 26
• Grapes are available in abundant. Table grapes can easily be
FPIs 14
MFs 20
converted into wine grapes, offering farmers better economics.
BFSI’s 3 • The company is being approached by new craft players. The
Public & Others 37 company does not want to dilute the margins and compromise on
profitability.
Relative Performance
800 • The company instead is interested to acquire wineries which can
700 supplement tourism as well. This is evident from the recent acquisition
600
500 of N D wineries.
400
300 Innovation
200
100 • Wine in cans are always premium.
0
• The company aims to break the barrier of purchasing wine glasses
Oct-23
Mar-23

Aug-23

Mar-24
May-23

May-24
Dec-22

Dec-23

and expensive French brands. As a result, their names are simplified.

Although glasses and cans have different lifespans, the taste remains
Sula Vineyards
Sensex (rebased) the same.
• Cans and beers have different value proposition.

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

385
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Price wars
• Mumbai business dipped by 6% and rest of Maharashtra saw 14% growth last year.
• Mumbai lost due to loss of weekends and competition in the popular segment due to pricing wars. So,
this has now become a volume driven game. This is players like Fratelli, Globus.
Long-term view
• Overall, the focus will only be on the domestic market. The company represents just 1% of the market,
which suggests there is a huge headroom.
• After building domestic market, the company will explore to global opportunities.
• Focus is to build overall category and reach out to more consumers. There are only 5 mn wines
consumers today and the per capita consumption is very low.
• The company does not need capital for the next two years.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR(%)
(FY20-24)
Financials

Sales 4,852 3,859 4,244 5,165 5,677 4.0

EBITDA 489 610 1,133 1,575 1,759 37.7
PAT (159) 53 521 841 933 NA
Margin (%)

Gross margin 53.1 59.2 72.4 74.2 76.4 –

EBITDA margin 10.1 15.8 26.7 30.5 31.0 –
PAT margin (3.3) 1.4 12.3 16.3 16.4 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 –

EPS (Rs) (2.1) 0.7 6.8 10.2 11.1 –
BV (Rs) 39.9 40.5 51.5 64.5 65.2 –
RoCE (Rs) 4.3 5.7 14.3 19.3 18.6 –
RoA (Rs) 3.7 4.9 12.2 16.5 15.9 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (10.6) 1.7 14.9 18.1 17.2 –

Net profit margin (3.3) 1.4 12.3 16.3 16.4 –
Asset Turnover (x) 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.8 –

386
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sun Pharmaceutical Industries

Price (Rs) 1,460
Strong specialty momentum; Deuruxolitinib + Nidlegy approval
BSE Sensex 73,961 key triggers in the near-term
Reuters code SUN.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code SUNP IN • Global specialty – milestone FY24 with sales crossing US$ 1 bn
Market cap. (US$ mn) 41,979 (~18% of global sales):
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 45.7 o FY24 sales crossed US$ 1 bn to US$ 1,039 mn that grew by 19% YoY
Issued shares (mn) 2,399 forming 18% of total consolidated sales and was driven by Ilumya,
Target price (Rs) 1,550 Cequa, Winlevi and Odomzo.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M o Specialty pipeline has 6 products under development viz.
Absolute (3) (7) 50 Deuroxoinitb (PDUFA date in July 2024), Ilumya for Psoriatic arthritis
(phase III trials underway, topline data in 2HCY25), Nidlegy for
Relative (3) (8) 31
Melanoma (phase 3 completed, MA filing on 3rd June for EU), MM-
Valuation Ratios
II for Osteoarthritis pain (phase II completed, phase III to start in
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E 1HCY25), SCD-044 for AD & Psoriasis (both indications in phase II,
EPS (Rs) 41.7 46.7 54.7 topline data by 2HCY24 and 1HCY25), GL0034 for Type-2 Diabetes &
Obesity (phase I completed, phase 2 to start in 2HCY24).
+/- (%) 16.0 11.9 17.1
o Ilumya recorded strong FY24 sales growth of 22% to US$ 580 mn
PER (x) 35.0 31.8 27.2
globally and most IL-23 products, including Ilumya, are in growth
PBV (x) 5.5 4.7 4.0 phase, as per the management.
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 o Winlevi – 26% share in 10 product acne market. Formulary changes
EV/Sales (x) 6.9 6.3 5.5 has led to an increase in prescriptions and there is scope to do
even better as they are doing some clinical work with doctors.
EV/EBITDA (x) 25.3 22.4 18.8
o Nidlegy (licencing deal with Philogen for EU + ANZ markets) –
Major Shareholders (%)
Filing expected in 1HCY24 in the European market that will be
Promoters 54 complementary to Odomzo franchise in the Onco-derm market.
FPIs 18 Primary results of the Phase III Pivotal trials to be presented
MFs 12
soon, which demonstrates statistically significant and clinically
BFSI’s 7
meaningful benefits in melanoma. Study was conducted in 22
Public & Others 9
sites in 4 European countries enrolling total of 256 patients.
Relative Performance o Deuruxolitinib – USFDA has set July 2024 as PDUFA date. Sun
2,000 Pharma is preparing for launch with investments in sales force,
1,500 promotion and distribution.

1,000 • Domestic branded business continues leadership position

500 o FY24 sales were steady at 10% to Rs 148 bn (no.1 rank in IPM with market
share of 8.5%) with growth largely driven by volumes and new
0
launches with both acute and Chronic segments performing well.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

o Sun Pharma continues to in-license branded products from

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries global innovators for India market like Sovateltide (Cardiac) from
Sensex (rebased)
Pharmazz, Finerenone (Diabetes) from Bayer and Desidustat
Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole
Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

387
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

(Diabetes) from Zydus.

• Taro merger approved leading to more operational synergies, to help improve Taro profitability, access
to US$ 1.3 bn in cash, to be used for specialty investments.
• US market FY24 sales at US$ 1.8 bn, up 13% YoY, majorly driven by 19% jump in specialty portfolio of Ilumya,
Cequa, Levulan (offset by price erosion in generic portfolio) and stable 13% increase in Taro. Sun’s US
product offering consists of 531 approved ANDAs while filings for 104 ANDAs await US FDA approval,
including 29 tentative. Additionally, the portfolio includes 51 approved NDAs, while 14 NDAs await USFDA
approval.
• Sun Pharma guides for a) high single digits growth in sales in FY25, b) R&D costs range of 8-10% of sales
in FY25, c) FY25 to be an investment year with capital allocation spread across several businesses,
specialty product launch cost in the US. etc.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 286,863 323,252 331,392 384,264 432,789 488,309 534,672 586,204 11.2 9.6
EBITDA 64,008 69,742 84,677 103,977 116,468 135,048 154,391 175,537 16.1 14.0
PAT 39,730 39,826 59,318 78,395 86,296 99,388 115,855 133,399 20.1 15.9
Margin (%)

Gross margin 72.6 71.4 73.8 73.1 75.4 76.7 76.3 76.0 – –

EBITDA margin 22.3 21.6 25.6 27.1 26.9 27.7 28.9 29.9 – –

PAT margin 13.8 12.3 17.9 20.4 19.9 20.4 21.7 22.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 16.6 16.6 24.7 32.7 36.0 41.4 48.3 55.6 20.1 15.9
BV (Rs) 172.6 188.7 193.7 200.1 233.4 273.4 320.0 373.8 9.6 16.9
RoCE (%) 10.2 9.6 12.3 16.2 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.1 – –

RoA (%) 8.8 8.4 10.6 13.3 13.0 14.1 14.8 15.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 10.0 9.2 12.9 16.6 16.6 16.3 16.3 16.0 – –

Net profit margin 13.8 12.3 17.9 20.4 19.9 20.4 21.7 22.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Sun Pharmaceutical Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update -
22 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Sundram Fasteners

Price (Rs) 1,191
De-risking through wind energy, aerospace and EV component
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SNFS.BO
• Currently, EV generates 6-7% of the total revenue and the company
Bloomberg code SF IN
expect it to increase to 10-12% in the medium-term and 12-15% in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,000 the long-term. Going forward, the company anticipates substantial
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.0 revenues as domestic EV programmes scale-up. Having partnerships
Issued shares (mn) 210 with major players in the domestic EV market like Tata Motors, the
Target price (Rs) 1,462 company is involved in developing the products for M&M in the EV
space.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute 7 11 6 • The company have been focusing on maximising their content per
vehicle in the MHCV segment with growth expected to be around 3%
Relative 7 11 (13)
above the industry growth.
Valuation Ratios
• Currently, capacity utilisation stands at 65-70%, and capex for FY25.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
is expected to be around Rs 3.5-4.0 bn, mainly for investments in
EPS 24.8 34.2 40.6 the fastener division for the truck application and hybrid segment

+/- (%) 5.5 37.6 18.8 located in the SEZ.

• The government promoting ‘Made in India’ products, increased
PER 48.0 34.9 29.3
government spending on infrastructure, and expectations of
PBV 7.4 6.3 5.3
formulating laws to localise certain imported products which would
Dividend Yield 0.6 0.5 0.5 benefit them in gaining more orders. Additionally, Sundram Fasteners

EV/Sales 4.5 3.7 3.2

have opted for the PLI Scheme and are expecting approval from the
authorities by 2QFY25.
EV/EBITDA 28.5 21.9 18.6
• The company is actively adding capacities in the wind energy
Major Shareholders (%) segment, with plans for additional capacity for finished products to be
Promoters 49 completed by June. This expansion is expected to provide a significant
FPIs 13 boost to revenue in the next financial year. With expectations of shift in
MFs 15 renewable energy from luxury to necessity, the company is scaling up
BFSI’s 4
and are well positioned to cater to global demand
Public & Others 20
• The demand for highly value-added parts, such as precision machine
Relative Performance parts, was higher both domestically and in export markets. These
1,400 parts typically command higher margins due to their specialised
1,200
1,000
nature and added value.
800 • The UK subsidiary performed well in FY24 due to strong operational
600
400 performance, efficient management of raw material cost, lower freight
200 costs and is expected to do well in FY25 as well, despite slowdown in
0
the truck market segment. The company is watchful and confident
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

that performance will sustain in 2024.

Sundram Fasteners
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

389
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 45,579 37,232 36,443 49,021 56,628 56,663 67,310 77,430 4.4 16.9
EBITDA 8,004 5,929 6,610 8,014 8,535 8,867 11,495 13,287 2.1 22.4
PAT 4,575 3,249 3,541 4,567 4,947 5,217 7,190 8,532 2.7 27.9
Margin (%)

Gross margin 40.7 41.0 39.2 42.0 44.0 41.6 43.0 43.5 – –

EBITDA margin 17.6 15.9 18.1 16.3 15.1 15.6 17.1 17.2 – –

PAT margin 10.0 8.7 9.7 9.3 8.7 9.2 10.7 11.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 21.8 15.5 16.9 21.7 23.5 24.8 34.2 40.6 2.7 27.9
BV (Rs) 89.0 95.0 111.7 124.7 143.5 161.5 189.2 223.3 12.7 17.6
RoCE (%) 26.3 14.9 16.4 19.2 18.8 18.1 23.0 23.6 – –

RoA (%) 20.9 12.4 13.6 15.8 15.7 15.4 19.7 20.3 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 26.9 16.8 16.3 18.4 17.6 16.3 19.5 19.7 – –

Net profit margin 10.0 8.7 9.7 9.3 8.7 9.2 10.7 11.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 – –

390
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Suprajit Engineering

Price (Rs) 443
Recovery in overseas operations remains key trigger
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SUPE.BO
• Outlook: On the back of new order wins at the Suprajit Control division
Bloomberg code SEL IN
and improved business outlook for domestic cable division, we expect
Market cap. (US$ mn) 735 a double-digit topline growth in FY25. Given the strong outlook across
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.6 segments, we expect margins to improve to 12% levels in FY25 (11.1%
Issued shares (mn) 138 achieved in FY24).
Target price (Rs) 469 • Phoenix Lamps division: The company is making progress. Capex will
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M be Rs 1.8 bn in FY25, with 50% allocated to maintenance and the rest to

Absolute 5 4 17 a technology centre in Bengaluru, an additional floor at the Chakan

plant, and other new products.
Relative 5 4 (1)
• Suprajit Control division: The division has launched an actuator and
Valuation Ratios
expects to launch mechanical actuation. STC: Focuses on clusters
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
and actuation. The reallocation of one-off costs is related to China.
EPS (Rs) 11.5 15.0 18.8 It is difficult to provide guidance for SCD, but the division expects to

+/- (%) 4.2 30.8 25.2 achieve around an 8% margin in FY25-26, with an aspiration to reach
double digits.
PER (x) 39.3 30.0 24.0
• Suprajit Electronic division: Growth in this segment is driven by the
PBV (x) 4.6 4.1 3.6
strong performance of digital clusters, TF, actuators, locks, seats, and
Div./Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.7 charging locks. The division also includes a mechanical speedometer

EV/Sales (x) 2.2 2.0 1.7

and expects margins in the double digits. Non-Automotive (Wescon)
has single-digit margins. Unit 9 in India has high-teen margins.
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.8 16.3 13.6
• Braking division: In the Braking division, the company is working
Major Shareholders (%) on a new product and expects to start production in the next two-
Promoters 45 three months. In cables, the order book in DCD is expected to witness
FPIs 5 double-digit growth, while non-cable products are very small parts.
MFs 17 Other income grew quarter-on-quarter, led by M2M gains from
BFSI’s 1
forward contracts.
Public & Others 33
• Enquiries for RFQ: The company is also getting good enquiry from
Relative Performance Europe and Russia clients. It is further working on other new applications
600 such as electric charge flak cables (under safety norms), elevator
500
conveyor belt cables, parking brake cables, and sunroof cables are
400
300
under development. We expect Suprajit Engineering’s (SEL) strong and
200 long relationship with OEMs will help to cross-sell this product which
100 will increase the content value per client for SEL.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Suprajit Engineering
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

391
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 15,899 15,628 16,409 18,405 27,524 28,554 32,275 37,116 12.4 14.0
EBITDA 2,328 2,187 2,367 2,600 3,126 3,210 3,886 4,625 6.6 20.0
PAT 1,338 1,035 1,426 1,732 1,521 1,585 2,073 2,595 3.4 28.0
Margin (%)

Gross margin 42.5 41.4 41.8 41.4 41.3 42.0 42.4 42.1 - -

EBITDA margin 14.6 14.0 14.4 14.1 11.4 11.2 12.0 12.5 - -

PAT margin 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.8 5.5 5.5 6.4 7.0 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 - -

EPS (Rs) 9.6 9.4 10.2 11.7 11.0 11.5 15.0 18.8 3.7 28.0
BV (Rs) 55.4 61.0 70.8 78.3 88.5 97.0 108.7 124.0 11.8 13.1
RoCE (%) 21.4 15.3 16.1 16.5 14.6 12.7 15.1 17.0 - -

RoA (%) 16.7 12.1 13.0 13.8 12.3 10.5 12.3 13.7 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 18.7 16.1 15.5 15.6 13.2 12.3 14.6 16.1 - -

Net profit margin 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.8 5.5 5.5 6.4 7.0 - -

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 - -

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 - -

392
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Supriya Lifescience

Price (Rs) 367
Developing newer products, CMO/CDMO pick-up would trigger
BSE Sensex 73,961 healthy growth
Reuters code SPRL.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code SUPRIYA IN • Core API business
Market cap. (US$ mn) 354 o Currently has 42 products in 14 therapies and is present in120
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.3 countries, mainly EOU (80%) especially regulated markets.
Issued shares (mn) 80 o Top APIs which contribute 80% of revenue are fully backward
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M integrated until the KSM level (only KSM is purchased from outside,
Absolute (7) 7 48 which is widely available and cheap in pricing).
Relative (8) 6 30 o No long-term contract for APIs as the pricing is dynamic.

Valuation Ratios o Top 3 products revenue contribution is currently 40% (of total
revenue) and going ahead in the next three-four years this
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
contribution will come down to 20%, because the contribution
EPS (Rs) 18.9 11.2 14.8
from other products will increase.
+/- (%) 22.8 (40.8) 32.5 o Supplying advanced intermediates to Teva, validation for another
PER (x) 19.5 32.9 24.8 product is going on with them which soon will be started.

PBV (x) 4.8 4.2 3.5 o Supriya has a leadership position in therapies like Anti Asthamatics,
Anti Allergics and Anti Histamines, of the 42 products the company
Div./Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3
is present in.
EV/Sales (x) 5.2 6.1 4.8
o Certain API products of the portfolio is OTC in US and hence the
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 21.8 15.9 pricing is very low.
Major Shareholders (%) o New Products – Tramedol and Cetrezine revenues have begun.
Promoters 68 The other 8 newer products have a potential of Rs 2-2.5 bn.
FPIs 5 • CMO/CDMO
BFSI’s 5
o Long contracts are only for CMO/CDMO business where the pricing
Public & Others 21
and demand is foreseeable for a longer period.
Relative Performance o The company has spare capacity currently from its total capacity
600 of 1,020 KL, along with this it also has manufacturing capabilities to
500
produce complex and highly controlled products, it also has R&D
400
300 labs, hence it decided to foray into CMO/CDMO business.
200 o DSM – Is the first CMO/CDMO customer, it is large brand in vitamins.
100
Will be sole supplier to them and contribute around Rs 600 mn
0
annually for the next 10 years.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

o The company is leveraging its relations with the MNCs for business
Supriya Lifescience development, though it is very difficult to crack the discussions,
Sensex (rebased) but it is progressing well. At the moment the MNCs are sourcing
advanced intermediates China, which the MNCs aspire to shift to
India, hence going ahead the opportunity will arise.

Rohit Bhat Maulik Varia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com maulik.varia@bksec.com

393
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o Strategy while shortlisting products – 1. Niche product selection which can be produced around
1000-1500 tonnes, 2. also taps adjacent therapies which leads to cross selling, 3. looks for therapies
which is sold by only 1 country or player.
• Capex Ambernath site
o Mainly for CMO, will be producing finished formulations targeting Anaesthetics products which is
currently fully imported from China. The company has developed this product in its R&D lab. The
company will produce API also inhouse for this product and the bottling will be done at Ambernath.
o Ambernath site has one Bottling line for Anesthetics, one production line for tablets and capsules in
therapies of Anti Anesthetics, Anti Anxienty, Anti Diabetes.
• Guidance
o For FY25 – Revenue growth would be coming from API portfolio and DSM contract.
o In FY26, Ambernath facility would start contributing to revenues.
o Cash conversion cycle to remain around 120-150 days usually.
o FY27 - 15-20% revenue contribution will come in from CMO/CDMO.
o The 4-5 new products which have been developed, fruits of which would be borne in the next six-
nine months is in anesthics (one product has market size of US$ 300 mn).
o FY27 topline target is Rs 10 bn.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 2,778 3,116 3,912 5,301 4,609 5,704 15.5

EBITDA 647 984 1,731 2,140 1,289 1,729 21.7
PAT 394 734 1,236 1,518 899 1,191 24.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 47.4 50.1 61.5 57.0 50.3 61.0 –

EBITDA margin 23.3 31.6 44.3 40.4 28.0 30.3 –
PAT margin 14.2 23.5 31.6 28.6 19.5 20.9 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 5.4 10.0 16.9 18.9 11.2 14.8 22.4
BV (Rs) 12.8 20.4 36.7 76.5 86.9 101.3 51.2
RoCE (%) 35.8 46.5 55.8 42.0 18.4 15.6 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 53.1 60.4 59.2 34.3 13.7 15.7 –

Net profit margin 14.2 23.5 31.6 28.6 19.5 20.9 –

394
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Suven Pharmaceuticals

Price (Rs) 617
Cohance merger to create integrated strong global CDMO
BSE Sensex 73,961 player
Reuters code SUVH.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code SUVENPHA IN • FY24 was a perfect storm with a) global slowdown, b) Ag Chem de-
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,883 stocking, c) Covid-19 flush out and d) commodity pricing. Suven
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 3.0 thinks most of the headwinds are fully behind, other than Ag Chem
Issued shares (mn) 255 de-stocking.

Target price (Rs) 800 • Adjusting for weakness in Spec chem and high Covid-19 base, the

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M sales grew by 16.2%. Pharma CDMO grew by 9.4% ex-covid base;
impacted by temporary de-stocking for a few products.
Absolute (7) (2) 29
• Adjusted EBITDA margins were at 41.4% and free cash flow of Rs 3.07
Relative (7) (2) 11
bn.
Valuation Ratios
• The new Genome Valley R&D centre has been inaugurated
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
with the presence of senior executives from a leading global
EPS (Rs) 11.8 13.4 18.5 biopharmaceutical company. The new block in Suryapet is
+/- (%) (27.0) 13.3 38.6 undergoing validations, on track for commissioning.
• Outlook
PER (x) 52.7 46.5 33.6
o Expect revenues to double at combined sales over the next four-
PBV (x) 7.9 6.9 5.8
five years.
Div./Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2
o Recovery expected from 2HFY25 and it expects to show growth in
EV/Sales (x) 14.7 13.1 10.1 both revenue and EBITDA compared to FY24.
EV/EBITDA (x) 37.3 33.0 23.4 o EBITDA margins expected to expand in FY25.

Major Shareholders (%) • Industry dynamics – China+1 – more traction from 4Q onwards.

Promoters 50
Increased RFQs coming from large biopharma companies.
FPIs 10 • Casper unit – focusing on products filings and approval, 22 approved,
MFs 15 7 from Casper and another 4 under approval. In the next 1.5 years, we
BFSI’s 2 could see uptick in sales.
Public & Others 23 • Price erosion in the 4-5% in the API portfolio. Combination of entry
Relative Performance in pharma emerging markets could be beneficial for pricing going
1,000 forward.
800 • Increased RFQ enquiries is for both development and commercial
600 product but most for phase 2 and beyond.
400
• Cohance update
200
0
o It reported sales of Rs 13.4 bn and PAT of Rs 2.5 bn in FY24.
o Cohance platform build-out started in October 2020; Organic
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

revenue CAGR at 13% (L2Lorganic growth for the entire platform,

Suven Pharmaceuticals proforma for acquisitions across years); EBITDA growth at 21%
Sensex (rebased) CAGR.
Rohit Bhat Hrishikesh Patole
Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com hrishikesh.patole@bksec.com

395
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

o FY24 saw EBITDA margins at 31% maintained, driven by better CDMO mix, despite some softness in
revenue growth.
o FY24 revenue impacted by short-term macro headwinds (de-stocking), delay in vendor qualification
for some products, and one Covid-19 molecule in base.
o ADC platform is progressing well. NON-ADC CDMO 1 product progressing well in phase 3. 5 new
products validated by Cohance on the generics front.
o Working on designer payloads exclusive for clients.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 6,453 8,173 9,957 13,070 13,217 10,795 13,003 15,397 10.8 19.4
EBITDA 1,604 3,816 4,405 5,794 5,665 4,328 5,455 6,775 22.0 25.1
PAT 1,460 3,170 3,623 3,806 4,113 3,253 4,078 5,059 17.4 24.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 73.1 72.0 69.7 69.5 69.0 68.5 71.3 72.1 – –

EBITDA margin 24.9 46.7 44.2 44.3 42.9 40.1 42.0 44.0 – –

PAT margin 22.6 38.8 36.4 29.1 31.1 30.1 31.4 32.9 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) 0.2 (0.0) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 5.7 12.5 14.2 15.0 16.2 12.8 16.0 19.9 17.4 24.7
BV (Rs) 32.6 33.2 46.4 60.0 68.2 79.4 94.0 112.3 19.5 18.9
RoCE (%) 18.5 42.6 39.3 44.2 31.8 21.7 23.4 24.6 – –

RoA (%) 16.6 38.4 36.0 40.8 29.8 20.7 22.3 23.4 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 18.3 37.8 35.8 28.1 25.2 17.3 18.5 19.3 – –

Net profit margin 22.6 38.8 36.4 29.1 31.1 30.1 31.4 32.9 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

396
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Symphony

Price (Rs) 1,084
Cooling remains a hot business
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code SYMP.BO
• The company reported highest ever quarterly sales during 4QFY24
Bloomberg code SYML IN
owing to strong summer demand for cooling products and early
Market cap. (US$ mn) 896 onset of summers.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.8 • It is expecting the high temperatures and increased demand to
Issued shares (mn) 69 sustain across all regions in India. It is witnessing unprecedented
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M demand due to intense summer. There is stockout situation in few of
Absolute 12 23 28 the models which the company is striving to meet.

Relative 12 22 10 • However, it believes North India is yet to experience the full impact of
summer which is expected to pick-up soon.
Valuation Ratios
• The company focuses on maximising volumes and margins
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
simultaneously. It aspires to restore its historical EBITDA margins of 32%
EPS (Rs) 17.3 16.6 21.5
in the next two-three years.
+/- (%) 5.0 (4.2) 29.6 • International business: Symphony is leveraging complementary
PER (x) 62.4 65.1 50.2 strength of international business for long-term growth.

PBV (x) 9.0 8.6 10.1 • Its overseas subsidiary in Australia, Cimatech, is faxing demand
headwinds but showing improving in profitability. It is implementing
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.0 0.0
cost rationalisation initiatives and product revamping in Climate
EV/Sales (x) 7.1 6.3 6.5 Technologies.
EV/EBITDA (x) 46.0 54.4 44.9 • The company is confident about the long-term structural growth and
Major Shareholders (%) performance in domestic as well as overseas market on account of
intensified heatwave and climate change.
Promoters 73
FPIs 3 • Symphony has introduced tower fans and personal fans in metros
MFs 10 and Tier 1 in the niche channels as of now. It is focusing on building
Public & Others 13 these markets.

Relative Performance
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Symphony
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

397
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 8,440 11,030 9,000 10,390 11,880 11,560 6.5

EBITDA 1,320 2,120 1,390 1,610 1,380 1,680 4.9

PAT 910 1,820 1,070 1,210 1,160 1,480 10.2

Margin (%)

Gross margin 46.3 47.1 44.8 45.0 43.9 48.0 –

EBITDA margin 15.6 19.2 15.4 15.5 11.6 14.5 –

PAT margin 10.8 16.5 11.9 11.6 9.8 12.8 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 17.5 26.7 16.5 17.3 16.6 21.5 4.2

BV (Rs) 95.2 91.3 108.5 120.1 125.9 107.0 2.4

RoCE (%) 21.2 28.2 15.9 16.7 14.4 18.6 –

RoA (%) 17.6 23.0 13.0 13.7 11.7 14.7 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 19.1 28.6 16.5 15.1 13.5 18.4 –

Net profit margin 14.5 16.9 12.8 11.6 9.8 13.0 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Tata Consumer Products

Price (Rs) 1,060
Growing beyond salt and tea...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TAGL.BO
Capital allocation
Bloomberg code TATACONS IN
• In terms of growth, Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) will adopt a mix
Market cap. (US$ mn) 12,108
of organic and inorganic. Many of the consumer segments in India
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 25.8 are reasonably penetrated and concentrated, which makes organic
Issued shares (mn) 953 growth more difficult and impractical. On the other hand, segments
Target price (Rs) 1,280 like spices, etc. which still don’t have any national players offer
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M considerable organic growth runway.

Absolute (4) (11) 33 • TCPL has made some acquisitions in recent years, including large
Relative (4) (11) 15 ones of Capital Foods and Organic India. The focus in the near-
term now is to scale these businesses up before looking for further
Valuation Ratios
inorganic opportunities.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• TCPL will continue having a 60-65% dividend payout too.
EPS (Rs) 16.2 22.4 25.1
Tata Coffee merger
+/- (%) 25.3 38.3 12.1 • Most large FMCG players have a reasonable B2B play. The purpose
PER (x) 65.9 47.6 42.5 of the Tata Coffee merger with TCPL was to create a joint tea and
coffee extraction business unit and keeping the plantation business
PBV (x) 6.3 5.0 4.8
separate in a 100% subsidiary.
Div./Yield (%) 0.9 1.2 1.3
• There will be cross-selling opportunities too as TCPL’s tea extraction
EV/Sales (x) 6.7 5.5 4.9 business was focused on US whereas Tata Coffee’s coffee extraction
EV/EBITDA (x) 44.6 34.4 29.8 was focused on the European region.

Major Shareholders (%) Capital Foods (CF) and Organic India (OI)

Promoters 34 • ~17% of CF’s revenue comes from exports, with a sizeable portion of
FPIs 25 that from the B2B segment.
MFs 7 • The food service space (hotels, restaurants, etc.) offers significant
BFSI’s 11 opportunities in the B2B segment. Profitability in the food service
Public & Others 24 category is better than the consumer facing categories.
Relative Performance • Currently, both CF and OI have some gaps in their product portfolio.
1,300 TCPL is working on filling the portfolio gaps. Multiple products are
1,200
1,100 planned to be launched from July 2024 onwards under CF and OI.
1,000
900 International business
800
700 • TCPL has overhauled its international business in the last 2 years. The
600 company has invested in upgrading its manufacturing facilities and
500
has also moved to sustainable / environment-friendly packaging for
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

its products in the western markets.

Tata Consumer Products • TCPL has also streamlined and restructured the operations in
Sensex (rebased) international business. The company has merged units which were

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

399
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

erstwhile operating separately. The manpower has been optimized too. These initiatives have led to
improvement in the operational efficiency and profitability.
• The overall international business is expected to grow at mid-to-high single digit with margins being
accretive to the India business.
Starbucks
• Low per capita consumption and store footprints in India offers immense growth opportunities.
• Starbucks has gone aggressive with its network expansion in recent years. It had added 200 stores in
the first 8 years of its operations. It has added a similar number in the last 3 years. The store expansion
momentum is expected to continue, and the company aims to reach a footprint of 1,000 stores by FY28.
Distribution footprint
• TCPL’s distribution network in urban markets is reasonably well placed. The company is still under-
indexed in the semi urban and rural markets. It is expanding its non-urban distribution aggressively.
The company will be incentivizing the newly onboarded distributors in rural areas to drive growth.
• TCPL has also now moved to an online platform-based Distributor Management System (DMS) which
provides real time data, simplifies the order management process, aids in inventory handling and
payment, thereby reducing the turnaround time.
• The company will be rolling out a mobile application for its front-line sales personnel which will provide
instant access to product information, customer data and performance tracking. This will aid in
demand forecasting, suggestive selling and promotions.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 72,515 96,374 116,020 124,254 137,832 152,059 183,827 205,547 16.0 16.3
EBITDA 7,859 12,922 15,438 17,188 18,565 22,841 29,339 33,763 23.8 21.6
PAT 4,819 6,662 9,534 10,542 12,004 15,424 21,337 23,912 26.2 24.5
Margin (%)
Gross margin 44.7 43.9 40.5 43.0 41.9 43.7 43.7 44.0 – –
EBITDA margin 10.8 13.4 13.3 13.8 13.5 15.0 16.0 16.4 – –
PAT margin 6.6 6.9 8.2 8.5 8.7 10.1 11.6 11.6 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) – –
EPS (Rs.) 7.6 7.2 10.3 11.4 12.9 16.2 22.4 25.1 – –
BV (Rs.) 116.2 149.9 157.7 164.3 175.2 168.5 212.2 222.0 – –
RoCE(Rs.) 8.5 8.7 8.0 8.6 8.9 9.7 10.6 11.2 – –
RoA (Rs.) 7.6 7.9 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.5 9.4 10.1 – –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 6.7 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.6 9.5 11.8 11.6 – –
Net profit margin 6.6 6.9 8.2 8.5 8.7 10.1 11.6 11.6 – –
Asset Turnover (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Tata Consumer Products - 4QFY24 Result Update - 24 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Tata Motors

Price (Rs) 923
Deleveraging plans on track
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TAMO.BO
Jaguar Land Rover division
Bloomberg code TTMT IN
• Order book: Order book as on 31st March 2024 stands at 133k units as
Market cap. (US$ mn) 40,541
of March 2024, of which, Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Defender
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 133.2 constitute 76% of the total order book. New Range Rover Electric has
Issued shares (mn) 3,324 received 33k bookings for which deliveries are expected to commence
Target price (Rs) 1,202 early next year.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • New launches: Range Rover electric has garnered 33k signups on the
Absolute (8) (3) 75 waiting list, with deliveries slated to commence next year.
Relative (9) (3) 57 • EBIT margin: Projected FY25 EBIT margin remains consistent with FY24
levels at 8.5%, driven by improved mix partially offset by increased
Valuation Ratios
marketing expenditures.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
Passenger Vehicle division
EPS (Rs) 58.6 65.7 87.1
• Outlook: Moderate volume growth outlook of less than 5% in FY25 on
+/- (%) 829.7 12.1 32.6 high base of last year.
PER (x) 16.4 14.6 11.0 • New launches: Anticipated launches include the Curvv nameplate in
PBV (x) 5.4 4.0 2.9 2HCY24 and the Sierra EV model in 2HCY25.

Div./Yield (%) 0.6 0.3 0.3 • PLI scheme: Tiago EV model has been approved under the PLI scheme,
with incentives expected in 2HFY25.
EV/Sales (x) 1.0 0.8 0.7
• No Hybrids in the near-term: EV penetration is expected to rise with
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 6.0 4.8
new product introductions by the company and its peers, with a focus
Major Shareholders (%) solely on EVs rather than hybrids.
Promoters 46 Commercial Vehicle division
FPIs 19 • Outlook: Management has guided for a cautious outlook in 1HFY25
MFs 10
due to election impact. On a full year basis, management has guided
BFSI’s 7
for a flat to marginal decline in FY25.
Public & Others 18
• Dedicated Freight Corridor: While the impact of Northeast corridor
Relative Performance is expected to remain minimal, management expects Northwest
1,200 corridor to impact heavy truck demand. However, LCV demand is
1,000
expected to improve on last mile connectivity.
800
600 • E-mobility: Over 4.3k ACE EV LCVs and 2.6k+ EV buses are operational.
400 Although FAME incentives are paused, the company is intensifying
200
marketing efforts to drive EV adoption.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Tata Motors
Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

401
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 3,019,384 2,610,680 2,497,948 2,784,536 3,459,670 4,341,828 4,617,306 5,280,219 7.5 10.3

EBITDA 246,643 179,871 322,874 247,201 319,197 590,489 637,188 739,231 19.1 11.9

PAT (288,262) (120,708) (134,514) (114,415) 24,143 224,480 251,571 333,511 (195.1) 21.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 35.0 36.0 36.6 35.0 34.5 37.6 37.3 36.9 - -

EBITDA margin 8.2 6.9 12.9 8.9 9.2 13.6 13.8 14.0 - -

PAT margin 0.3 (3.5) (5.4) (4.1) 0.7 5.2 5.4 6.3 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 (0.1) - -

EPS (Rs) 2.4 (26.8) (37.9) (30.7) 6.3 58.6 65.7 87.1 89.0 21.9

BV (Rs) 177.2 184.0 155.7 119.3 118.3 176.7 242.1 328.9 (0.1) 36.4

RoCE (%) 2.0 (0.2) 5.1 1.3 5.0 15.7 16.4 19.6 - -

RoA (%) 1.3 (0.1) 3.4 0.9 3.5 10.4 10.2 11.8 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 1.1 (14.9) (22.7) (22.9) 5.4 39.7 31.4 30.5 - -

Net profit margin 0.3 (3.5) (5.4) (4.1) 0.7 5.2 5.4 6.3 - -

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 - -

Leverage factor (x) 4.1 5.1 5.6 6.8 7.4 6.3 4.8 3.7 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Tata Motors - 4QFY24 Result Update - 11 May 24.pdf

402
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data TeamLease Services

Price (Rs) 2,920
Resilience despite IT headwinds
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TLSV.BO
• IT services companies have a huge exposure in the contract staffing
Bloomberg code TEAM IN space, because of the large volumes. The global capability centers
Market cap. (US$ mn) 587 (GCC)/captive space was evolving and contracting in GCC was not
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.0 very large. Of late, contracting acceptance has increased in GCC.
TeamLease (TEAM) is seeing hiring slowly open up in GCCs. The
Issued shares (mn) 16.8
number of GCCs in India has gone up to 1,560 and is expected to reach
Target price (Rs) 3,878
2,000 in the coming year. Hiring for GCCs is usually for experienced
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
professionals with niche skill sets. GCC is roughly 50% of specialised
Absolute (12) (3) 31 staffing headcount.
Relative (12) (3) 13 • The company is trying to replace losses due to IT services companies
Valuation Ratios with new customers, largely from the GCC side. This is how the company
is trying to hold on to its base despite downsizing in the IT services
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
segment. GCC has better margin profile and lower competition as
EPS (Rs) 63.9 87.8 133.1 compared to IT services. The company expects a consistent growth
+/- (%) (4.2) 37.4 51.6 rate in GCC, as compared to IT services, which is more volatile. At the
initial stages, GCCs offer single digit open positions to TEAM. Hence to
PER (x) 45.6 33.2 21.9
reach a certain scale with such clients, it takes anywhere between 6 to
PBV (x) 6.2 5.3 4.2 12 months. Unlike GCCs, IT services firms start with high volumes.
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.4 0.3 • The labor laws could be a massive tailwind for the entire formal staffing
space. Whilst issues of implementation still remain, the company is
EV/EBITDA (x) 35.1 24.1 17.8
still growing at 20% in these challenging times. Labour laws, on actual
Major Shareholders (%) implementation, would materially improve RoCE trajectory.
Promoters 32 • Quite a lot of companies from US and Europe are setting up offices
FPIs 27 in India. Earlier, they used to set up delivery centres but lately, these
MFs 32 MNCs are setting up capability centres. There is cost as well as talent
BFSI’s 2 arbitrage. MNCs are getting good digital talent in India at lower costs.
Public & Others 7
• Discretionary spending has been halted and this has impacted the
Relative Performance IT services space for TEAM. Companies are trying to improve their
6,000 utilisation. However, no company can reach 100% utilisation. This will
5,000 lead to some rise in hiring in the coming quarters. Currently, number
4,000 of open positions are significantly below normal levels.
3,000
2,000
• HR services is expected to grow at similar rates as in the past, with
1,000 steady EBITDA margins of 8-9%.
0 • We beleive Teamlease is one of the best ways to play the ancillary to
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

formalizaton and improving manufacturing operations in India. Its

clean governance record, sustained growth and sourcing/matching
TeamLease Services
prowess should enable multiple re-rating. Recovery of IT will be a
Sensex (rebased)
further catalyst. Teamlease remains one of our top picks.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

403
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 44,476 52,007 48,815 64,798 78,700 93,215 107,637 125,660 16.0 16.1
EBITDA 944 951 985 1,424 1,223 1,308 1,743 2,276 6.7 31.9
PAT 980 356 824 1,227 1,140 1,092 1,500 2,274 2.2 44.3
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 – –

PAT margin 2.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.0) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.8) (0.8) – –

EPS (Rs) 57.4 20.8 48.2 71.8 66.7 63.9 87.8 133.1 – –

BV (Rs) 315.5 334.7 381.5 405.6 472.6 466.9 554.7 687.7 – –

RoCE (%) 18.3 14.2 13.1 14.8 12.9 12.1 13.9 16.8 – –

RoA (%) 11.9 10.0 9.0 9.3 8.4 7.7 8.9 11.5 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.0 6.4 13.5 18.2 15.2 13.6 17.2 21.4 – –

Net profit margin 2.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 5.2 5.4 4.4 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.1 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/TeamLease Services - 4QFY24 Result Update - 22 May
24.pdf

404
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data The Great Eastern Shipping Company

Price (Rs) 1,077
Healthy outlook in Shipping and Offshore segment
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code GESC.BO
• Demand across segments: In crude and product tankers, oil demand
Bloomberg code GESCO IN
is expected to remain firm with a growth of 2-2.5%. In dry-bulk, January
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,843 to April witnessed strong growth in the market due to higher exports
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.7 from China to Brazil, resulting in higher tonne-mile demand. However,
Issued shares (mn) 143 underlying demand in China continues to remain weak. In the LPG
Target price (Rs) 1,350 segment, demand is expected to remain strong despite a higher order
book to fleet ratio.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (1) 7 58 • Orderbook to fleet: Though the order book to fleet across the
segments have improved in the last few months; however, it continues
Relative (1) 7 40
to remain at comfortable levels. The current order book to fleet ratio
Valuation Ratios
for Crude Tankers stood at 7.5%, while for Product Tankers, Bulkers and
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E LPG Carriers it stood at 15%, 9.3% and 24.7%, respectively.
EPS (Rs) 166.3 171.5 192.5 • Scrapping at lowest levels: With the shipping market remaining

+/- (%) (3.4) 3.1 12.2 strong, there hasn’t been much scrapping happening.
• Looking for opportunities across segments: The company remains
PER (x) 6.5 6.3 5.6
agnostic to Crude Tanker, Product Tanker, LPG Carriers and Dry Bulk
PBV (x) 1.2 1.1 0.9
Carrier segments for deployment of capital. The company intends to
Div./Yield (%) 3.2 3.0 3.4 expand its fleet when the asset prices are low.

EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.5 1.0 • Foray into container segment: The asset prices for container vessels
have shot up significantly after the Red Sea crisis and the current asset
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 3.0 2.1
prices are beyond the comfort of the management. The orderbook to
Major Shareholders (%) fleet for container vessels also remains high.
Promoters 30
• Existing shipyards running at full capacity: The new shipbuilding
FPIs 27
takes 12-18 months. But currently the slots are not available in the
MFs 16
existing shipyard and very few shipbuilding yards have come up in the
Public & Others 26
recent past as opposed to order flows for building new ships.
Relative Performance • Product tanker order book to fleet is heavier towards LR2: In the
1,200 Product Tankers, the order book to fleet is high due to increased orders
1,000
towards LR2 as compared to Medium Range (MR) tankers.
800
600 Key triggers
400
• Strong outlook in the Crude and Product Tankers.
200
0 • Improving outlooking the Dry Bulk carriers.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Repricing of OSV and jack-up rigs

Great Eastern Shipping Co.Ltd.

Sensex (rebased)

Roshan Nair Archit Joshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
roshan.nair@bksec.com archit.joshi@bksec.com

405
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 35,471 36,867 33,366 35,089 56,905 52,552 62,676 64,564 8.2 10.8
EBITDA 12,535 15,394 14,594 14,094 30,817 28,315 30,815 32,463 17.7 7.1
PAT (215) 2,071 9,185 6,297 25,750 26,142 24,485 27,476 NA 2.5
Margin (%)

Gross margin NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA – –

EBITDA margin 35.3 41.8 43.7 40.2 54.2 53.9 49.2 50.3 – –

PAT margin 3.6 14.4 16.9 15.3 43.2 45.2 39.1 42.6 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) – –

EPS (Rs) 8.5 36.2 38.5 37.5 172.2 166.3 171.5 192.5 81.4 7.6
BV (Rs) 451.6 462.4 524.2 563.9 719.7 868.4 1,007.5 1,163.7 14.0 15.8
RoCE (%) 5.8 8.5 6.9 7.3 21.5 18.7 16.4 16.3 – –

RoA (%) 5.1 7.5 6.2 6.7 20.3 17.7 15.5 15.5 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 1.9 7.8 7.8 6.8 26.8 20.9 18.3 17.7 – –

Net profit margin 3.6 14.4 16.9 15.3 43.2 45.2 39.1 42.6 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/The Great Eastern Shipping Company - 4QFY24 Result
Update - 11 May 24.pdf

406
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data The Phoenix Mills

Price (Rs) 3,100
Strategies towards growth getting executed well
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code PHOE.BO
• From a five-six years perspective, the company is targeting 11-12%
Bloomberg code PHNX IN
CAGR growth in consumption.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 6,639
• At its newer malls, the company has taken strategic shifts in terms
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 18.5 of tenant mix with significantly increasing the percentage of gross
Issued shares (mn) 179 leasable area occupied by F&B and entertainment centres. In the new
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M malls, F&B alone is 15-16%, whereas entertainment centres, multiplex
Absolute (2) 12 111 and other entertainment options added to this takes the mix to ~30%.

Relative (2) 12 93 This is higher than the earlier trends wherein F&B and entertainment
would occupy cumulatively ~15%.
Valuation Ratios
• The existing malls are working towards an upgrade to revamp uplift
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24P
F&B brands and options. This would drive the relevant profile of the
EPS (Rs) 13.3 74.8 61.5 customer to the mall, which would lead to consumption growth.
+/- (%) 311.9 462.3 (17.7) • FY24 gross leasing was over 0.5 msf, out of which ~0.36 msf is new

PER (x) 234.6 41.7 50.7 leasing and 0.17 msf is renewal.
• At Phoenix Palladium, the company has shut down the Lifestyle store
PBV (x) 8.5 6.6 5.9
and demolished that structure as per its revised approval plans
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.2
to provide a spectacular entry and arrival experience and better
EV/Sales (x) 38.6 22.1 14.7 circulation for the development. The mall reported a consumption

EV/EBITDA (x) 78.0 38.4 26.8 growth of 4% but adjusted for the loss of contribution from the Lifestyle
store, consumption grew by ~9% on a like-for-like basis.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The Lifestyle block at Palladium generated ~Rs 250-270 mn annual
Promoters 47
rent and significant consumption to the portfolio.
FPIs 33
MFs 15
• At Phoenix Palladium (Mumbai), the company is working towards
BFSI’s 1 expansion and there is a host of new brands that it is in discussion
Public & Others 4 with, which would aid in improving both consumption and overall
rental income.
Relative Performance
• New malls contributed ~Rs 3 bn in rental income and ~Rs 2.6 bn in EBITDA
3,500
3,000 for FY24. EBITDA margin as a percentage of rental income is lower in
2,500 new malls during the initial period of occupancy ramp up. However, in
2,000
1,500 FY25, EBITDA margins from new malls would likely increase towards the
1,000 margins of existing operational malls as these malls stabilise.
500
0 • The company is seeing a fast ramp-up in trading occupancy at the
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

newly launched malls.

• Phoenix Citadel in Indore (launched in December 2022) crossed 90%
Phoenix Mills/The
occupancy levels within 12 months of launch and has been trading
Sensex (rebased)
at a stable 91% occupancy.

Amit Srivastava Harsh Pathak

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com harsh.pathak@bksec.com

407
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Palladium Ahmedabad (launched in February 2023) is already trading at 86%. The multiplex at
Ahmedabad is ready and once OC is received, the multiplex will commence operations and the
occupancy level will cross 94%.
• Phoenix Mall of the Millennium at Pune (opened in September 2023) and is already trading at 77%
occupancy levels within eight months.
• In the residential segment, it has received the OC for Tower 7 at One Bangalore West.
• By FY27, the company aims to have an operational portfolio of ~14 msf of retail, 7 msf of offices, ~1,000 keys
in hotels and add another 1 msf to its residential development. These are all projects which are already
underway, lands have been acquired and are either under construction or at design development stage.
• PML is already planning its growth beyond FY27 and has enhanced its development mix through
land acquisitions at Thane and Bengaluru. It would continue to evaluate and work on opportunities
selectively to add to growing the portfolio size.
• At the Thane land parcel, there could be a large mixed-use development with a combination of retail,
hotel as well as residential. However, it is yet to be finalised.
• PML plans to sell ~Rs 3.5-4.0 bn worth of residential inventory in FY25 in Bengaluru between One
Bangalore West and Kessaku. It has taken some price hikes at the projects which have been absorbed.
• The Kolkata residential launch of ~1 msf could take six-eight months to get launched.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 19,816 19,411 10,450 14,835 26,384 39,777 15.0

EBITDA 9,936 9,674 4,944 7,342 15,195 21,768 17.0
PAT 4,210 3,347 576 2,374 13,350 10,992 21.2
Margin (%)

Gross margin 89.0 89.9 92.6 93.1 94.4 86.9 –

EBITDA margin 50.1 49.8 47.3 49.5 57.6 54.7 –
PAT margin 21.2 17.2 5.5 16.0 50.6 27.6 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 –

EPS (Rs) 23.6 18.8 3.2 13.3 74.8 61.5 21.2

BV (Rs) 194.6 216.1 282.3 368.7 469.3 529.4 22.2
RoCE (%) 11.0 8.9 3.8 5.3 9.7 12.1 –

RoA (%) 9.4 7.9 3.4 4.8 8.8 11.1 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 13.3 9.1 1.3 4.1 17.8 12.3 –

Net profit margin 21.2 17.2 5.5 16.0 50.6 27.6 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data The Ramco Cements

Price (Rs) 742
Augmenting capacities, striding on positive trajectory…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TRCE.BO
• The Ramco Cement’s (TRCL) current capacity has potential to
Bloomberg code TRCL IN
manage double-digit volume growth for FY25. Further, recently
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,101 commissioned grinding capacity at Haridaspur plant (Odisha)
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.4 of 1 mtpa and doubling of its Kurnool capacity by FY26-end would
Issued shares (mn) 236 maintain healthy volume growth.
Target price (Rs) 1,135 • Near-term demand trend is muted due to ongoing election process;
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M however, the company expects medium-term demand outlook

Absolute (7) (11) (18) remains healthy with continuity of infrastructure projects and strong
traction in the housing segment.
Relative (7) (11) (36)
• TRCL has now revised the capex guidance downward to Rs 12 bn for
Valuation Ratios
FY25 from the earlier planned Rs 17 bn to align with cash flow and
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
keeping the debt level in control. This augurs well for comfort on
EPS (Rs) 16.7 26.4 39.0 balance sheet.

+/- (%) 14.9 58.2 47.5 • The company is looking to monetise some of the non-core land
parcels, which is expected to get completed during FY25.
PER (x) 44.4 28.1 19.0
• The company has already acquired land for limestone mines in Tamil
PBV (x) 2.5 2.3 2.0
Nadu and expects auctioning to start in the upcoming quarters.
Div./Yield (%) 15.0 11.4 10.3
• The company is planning to set up 10 MW WHRS capacity at its RR
EV/Sales (x) 2.4 2.2 1.9 Nagar plant (Rs 1.5 bn capex), which is likely to get commissioned by
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4 12.4 9.9 FY25. Further, it is planning to install 15 MW WHRS at its Kurnool facility by
FY26. Additionally, in Kolimigundla, TPP of 18 MW will be commissioned
Major Shareholders (%)
during 1QFY25, whereas railway siding will be commissioned during
Promoters 42
June 2024. These investments would improve cost efficiency.
FPIs 7
MFs 18
BFSI’s 14
Public & Others 15

Relative Performance
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Ramco Cements/The
Sensex (rebased)

Amit Srivastava Anurag Katta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
amit.srivastava@bksec.com anurag.katta @bksec.com

409
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 50,704 52,951 51,976 59,104 80,680 93,273 99,858 112,111 13.0 9.6
EBITDA 10,365 11,366 15,480 12,839 11,820 15,525 17,824 21,585 8.4 17.9
PAT 5,088 6,011 7,595 5,899 3,435 3,949 6,245 9,213 (4.9) 52.7
Margin (%)

Gross margin 87.7 87.7 86.5 87.9 87.4 87.0 87.1 87.6 – –

EBITDA margin 20.4 21.5 29.8 21.7 14.6 16.6 17.8 19.3 – –

PAT margin 10.0 11.4 14.6 10.0 4.3 4.2 6.3 8.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 – –

EPS (Rs) 21.6 25.5 32.2 25.0 14.5 16.7 26.4 39.0 (5.0) 52.7
BV (Rs) 189.3 208.8 238.7 276.4 287.5 302.3 327.4 362.4 9.8 9.5
RoCE (%) 11.8 10.8 13.1 8.6 6.0 7.5 9.2 11.6 – –

RoA (%) 10.1 9.5 11.5 7.5 5.2 6.3 7.5 9.4 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 12.0 12.8 14.4 9.7 5.2 5.7 8.4 11.3 – –

Net profit margin 10.0 11.4 14.6 10.0 4.3 4.2 6.3 8.2 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/The Ramco Cements - 4QFY24 Result Update - 23 May
24.pdf

410
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data The Tata Power Company

Price (Rs) 437
More visibility around Mundra and traction from Renewable
BSE Sensex 73,961 projects
Reuters code TTPW.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code TPWR IN • Due to the extension of Section 11 of the Electricity Act until 15 October
Market cap. (US$ mn) 16,726 2024, Mundra is expected to generate power at a high plant load
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 97.0 factor (PLF) in response to the rising power demand.
Issued shares (mn) 3,195 • The 4 GW module capacity has been commissioned, and the 4 GW cell
Target price (Rs) 445 capacity is set to begin operations in June 2024, with the full ramp-up

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M of the Cell & Module line anticipated by the second quarter of FY25.

Absolute (3) 17 105 • The PM Surya Ghar Yojana (PMSGY) rooftop solar projects will be
a major focus area in the coming years, with ~25-30 GW of rooftop
Relative (3) 17 86
projects targeted for installation over the next three-four years. The
Valuation Ratios
Tata Power Company (TPWR) holds about 20% of the market share and
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25 FY26E is expected to achieve a margin of 7-9% with its in-house cell/module
EPS 13.4 15.8 17.4 production facilities.

Change (%) 12.4 17.8 10.4 • Renewable capacity to jump from 4 GW to ~15 GW in three years
through faster project visibility, greater Government focus and better
PER (x) 32.6 27.7 25.1
economics.
PBV(x) 4.3 3.9 3.5
• Overall profits are likely to double FY23-28, as per the management
Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 guidance.
EV/Sales (x) 3.0 2.9 2.8 • The capital expenditure guidance is around Rs 200 bn for the next

EV/EBITDA (x) 16.8 15.6 13.3

three years starting from FY25.
• We anticipate growth will be driven by rooftop solar, new cell/module
Major Shareholders (%)
capacities, and increased traction in renewable energy (RE).
Promoters 47
FPIs 9
MFs 6
BFSI’s 10
Public & Others 28

Relative Performance
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Tata Power Co/The

Sensex (rebased)

Rajesh Majumdar Somnath Saha

Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com somnath.saha@bksec.com

411
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 299,843 289,477 332,393 425,762 560,331 615,423 680,788 727,376 15.5 8.7

EBITDA 68,484 77,541 75,387 72,717 86,304 108,774 127,735 154,485 9.7 19.2

PAT 26,057 13,164 14,386 21,556 38,097 42,802 50,403 55,664 10.4 14.0

Margin (%)

Gross margin 36.0 40.2 39.6 44.1 34.3 35.7 39.1 41.2 – –

EBITDA margin 22.8 26.8 22.7 17.1 15.4 17.7 18.8 21.2 – –

PAT margin 8.7 4.5 4.3 5.1 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 – –

EPS (Rs) 8.2 4.1 4.5 6.7 11.9 13.4 15.8 17.4 10.0 14.0

BV (Rs) 57.3 61.2 69.9 70.2 90.1 101.3 112.6 125.0 12.0 11.1

RoCE (%) 7.3 7.9 6.7 6.0 7.0 8.4 9.3 10.0 – –

RoA (%) 5.8 6.5 5.5 4.8 5.5 6.7 7.4 8.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 15.0 7.0 6.9 9.6 14.9 14.0 14.8 14.7 – –

Net profit margin 8.7 4.5 4.3 5.1 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.9 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/The Tata Power Company - 4QFY24 Result Update - 08
May 24.pdf

412
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Thermax

Price (Rs) 5,405
New products to drive growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code THMX.BO
• Thermax (TMX) has a stable base order scenario. Enquiry inflow from
Bloomberg code TMX IN
the bio-fuel segment continues with its upward trend. Enquiry inflow
Market cap. (US$ mn) 7,719 from steel, pharma, ethanol, cement, healthcare chemical and F&B
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 8.9 continues to remain strong.
Issued shares (mn) 119 • For its green solution business, TMX has guided for gradual increase in
Target price (Rs) 4,278 the segment’s profitability and is confident of achieving overall EBITDA
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M and a return on capital in the longer run.

Absolute 16 49 131 • For its industrial products business, there has been a gradual increase
Relative 16 48 113 in profitability with a 9.5-10% YoY growth rate for the past few quarters.
Water projects will lead the next leg of profitability expansion.
Valuation Ratios
• The order pipeline for heat pumps is evolving at a good pace.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• In the bio-CNG business, TMX had more than expected setbacks in
EPS (Rs) 50.4 75.5 95.1
stabilising their plants while processing rice-based feedstock. While it
+/- (%) 26 50 26 is waiting for the current plants to stabilise, the company is a little slow
PER (x) 110.4 73.7 58.5 in taking up new orders. The products are getting traction in the market
and gaining strength. TMX is expecting projects with historically high
PBV (x) 14.1 12.8 11.3
margin levels. The company is expecting many opportunities and
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 increased profitability from the industrial infra business.
EV/Sales (x) 6.6 5.4 4.4 • For its chemical business, TMX is not expecting any material expansion
EV/EBITDA (x) 77.2 53.5 41.5 in profitability.
• Further, new international orders are coming in with a better margin
Major Shareholders (%)
profile. International business is not as profitable as domestic business
Promoters 62
and is expected to continue with this trend. Order enquiries are quite
FPIs 18
strong.
MFs 14
BFSI’s 2 • In the zero liquid discharge (ZLD) space, the opportunity pipeline
Public & Others 4 continues to build very healthy across multiple industries.
• TOESL is a biomass-based solutions where TMX is the market leader.
Relative Performance
IRR expectation is 19-20%. FEPL where there is still some pain in terms
6,000
5,000 of losses incurred in the past, IRR expectation is 15-16% which shall
4,000 improve going ahead.
3,000
• The key lever for better margin includes backward integration, cost
2,000
1,000 optimisation and new product development.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Thermax
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

413
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 59,732 57,313 47,913 61,283 80,898 93,235 113,646 136,575 7.9 21.0
EBITDA 4,574 4,062 3,552 4,214 5,976 7,974 11,384 14,569 6.9 35.2
PAT 3,926 2,125 2,591 3,123 4,507 5,677 8,505 10,705 3.5 37.3
Margin (%)

Gross margin 44.1 46.2 47.0 43.1 42.8 44.0 46.3 46.4 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 7.7 7.1 7.4 6.9 7.4 8.6 10.0 10.7 – –

PAT margin 6.6 3.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 7.5 7.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 34.9 18.9 23.0 27.7 40.0 50.4 75.5 95.1 3.5 37.3
BV (Rs) 267.7 268.9 288.8 310.2 343.5 394.3 433.4 494.0 6.4 11.9
RoCE (%) 16.2 11.7 9.9 11.3 14.7 16.6 20.2 22.9 – –

RoA (%) 8.1 6.1 5.6 6.2 7.9 9.3 11.1 11.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 13.7 7.0 8.3 9.3 12.2 13.7 18.3 20.5 – –

Net profit margin 6.6 3.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 7.5 7.8 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Thermax - 4QFY24 Result Update - 13 May 24.pdf

414
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Tilaknagar Industries

Price (Rs) 230
Strong hold in brandy; portfolio diversification in focus
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TILK.BO
• Market leader in brandy: Out of total volume of 11.2 mn cases in FY24,
Bloomberg code TLNGR IN
~94% (i.e. 10.4 mn cases) came from brandy. ~85% of the company’s
Market cap. (US$ mn) 531 volumes come from the P&A segment. Its two flagship brands
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.2 “Mansion House” and “Courrier Napolean” registered volumes of
Issued shares (mn) 193 ~8.5/1.2 mn cases in FY24 respectively. Mansion House is the largest
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M selling brandy in India. While Mansion House is present only in the P&A
category, Courrier Napolean straddles across Popular and P&A with
Absolute (3) 7 48
multiple sub-brands.
Relative (3) 7 30
• Southern dominance: Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are the
Valuation Ratios
two largest states for Tilaknagar, together contributing ~55% of its
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 total volumes. Kerala and Karnataka contribute low double digits.
EPS (Rs) 2.0 3.9 7.3 Pondicherry is high single digit. Canteen Stores Department (CSD) is
also high single digit. ~85% of the company’s total volume comes from
+/- (%) 93.2 87.8
the southern states. Apart from the south, Tilaknagar has considerable
PER (x) 110.6 57.3 30.5
presence in Odisha and Sikkim.
PBV (x) 26.5 8.6 6.6 • Over FY20-24, the overall Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) industry
Div./Yield (%) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) volumes have grown at 3.5-4%, with P&A growing at 7.5-8%. Vodka has
grown by ~10%, whisky by ~7% and brandy by 12-13%. Tilaknagar has
EV/Sales (x) 5.2 3.7 3.1
registered a volume growth CAGR of ~15% on a blended basis over
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.1 31.5 23.6
FY20-24.
Major Shareholders (%) • Salience of P&A in brandy is at ~35%, compared to ~55/60% in whisky
Promoters 40 and vodka. The under indexation of P&A offers premiumisation-driven
FPIs 11 growth opportunities in brandy.
Public & Others 48
• Portfolio diversification
Relative Performance o Tilaknagar will be launching a new luxury brandy in FY25, which
300 will be akin to Indian single malt whiskies in terms of price point.
250
The company will also enter the whisky segment in FY25.
200
150 o Brandy is largely consumed in the southern states. At some stage,
100 demand will saturate. Hence, the company intends to diversify its
50 portfolio. While the new whisky is not intended to create a niche,
0
it will reduce the company’s dependence on brandy. From the
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

current brandy/non-brandy volume mix of 94/6%, the company

plans to get it down to 80/20% by FY30.
Tilaknagar Industries Limited
Sensex (rebased) o Southern states are the highest consumers of whisky. Tilaknagar
has a strong distribution network in those states which it can
leverage to penetrate in the whisky segment.

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

415
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Growth outlook
• The company expects mid-teens volume and revenue growth of ~18-19% in FY25. Margins are expected
to improve by ~100-200 bps over the next two years.
• Gross debt has reduced from ~Rs 12 bn in FY19 to ~Rs 1.2 bn in FY24, on the back of equity fund raise of
~Rs 3.1 bn during the last two-three years. The net debt as of FY24 is ~Rs 740 mn. Cash flow generation is
steady now. The company expects to be net cash surplus by end of 1HFY25.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 6,613 6,528 5,488 7,834 11,644 13,940 16.1

EBITDA 561 (519) 541 1,121 1,372 1,854 27.0

PAT (1,595) (1,855) (384) 320 722 1,410 NA

Margin (%)

Gross margin 51.7 46.0 49.5 51.2 47.1 49.2 –

EBITDA margin 8.5 (8.0) 9.9 14.3 11.8 13.3 –

PAT margin (24.1) (28.4) (7.0) 4.1 6.2 10.1 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (2.6) (28.8) (11.7) 3.9 0.4 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) (12.7) (14.8) (3.1) 2.0 3.9 7.3 –

BV (Rs) (23.0) (1.4) (4.4) 8.4 26.1 33.9 –

RoCE (Rs) 3.5 (7.6) 4.3 11.8 14.2 20.4 –

RoA (Rs) 1.9 (4.7) 3.1 8.9 11.1 16.4 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 76.5 121.8 105.1 82.2 23.4 24.8 –

Net profit margin (24.1) (28.4) (7.0) 4.1 6.2 10.1 –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 –

Leverage factor (x) (6.1) (7.8) (28.6) 26.0 3.3 1.8 –

416
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Tips Industries

Price (Rs) 417
Focus moves to acquisition of quality content
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TIPS.BO
• Tips Industries has been involved in producing and acquiring film as
Bloomberg code TPS IN
well as non-film music rights. Their in-house productions shall come
Market cap. (US$ mn) 639 from Tips Films, while they will also selectively acquire music rights
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.9 from other producers.
Issued shares (mn) 128 • Tips has been able to increase its market share to 7-8% from 2-3%
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M earlier. The company aims to reach 12-13% in the coming years.
Absolute (10) (20) 120 • Prices for music still remain high. This led to lower than anticipated
Relative (10) (20) 102 content investments over the last fiscal. Total investments could
be similar to the previous fiscal year or slightly higher. However, the
Valuation Ratios
number of new songs acquired will be lesser as the company places
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
emphasis on acquiring top content only. This does not necessarily
EPS (Rs) 5.0 6.0 9.9 mean acquiring content from category-A films. Competition in
+/- (%) 48.5 18.5 66.2 category-B films is lower, and Tips would like to focus there. The
company is willing to invest ~30% of topline on new content acquisition.
PER (x) 82.9 69.9 42.1
• The management anticipates that new content shall form 10-15% of
PBV (x) 52.3 39.3 29.8
revenues, while balance shall be contributed by catalogue. Payback
EV/Sales (x) 39.3 28.5 21.6 period of content is estimated to be around five years.
EV/EBITDA (x) 61.7 52.3 32.9 • The company recently entered into a global exclusive contract with

Major Shareholders (%) Warner Music Group which shall improve the scope of their digital
distribution across India as well as abroad. This deal is for a period of
Promoters 64
four years, on a minimum guaranteed basis. This MG shall be fixed for
FPIs 2
the duration of the deal, and Tips will benefit from overflows in case
MFs 8
Public & Others 26
numbers surpass the MG. The management mentioned that MG is 10
times bigger than the previous deal, and they received Rs 1 bn at the
Relative Performance
time of signing the deal.
600
• Currently, paid streaming contributes to around 5-10% of the topline
500
400 for the company. Around 60-70% of topline is from digital sources.
300 Unsurprisingly, YouTube contributes to ~45-50% of overall revenues.
200
The aim for the industry is to convert ~60-70% of users to the paid
100
0 medium.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• Per stream revenue from free subscribers stands at ~10 paise. YouTube
is slightly lower than this on per-stream basis; however, the revenue
Tips Industries Limited pool is meaningful given the high volumes. The company earns
Sensex (rebased) around 20 paise per stream from a paid subscriber on Spotify.
• The management alluded that there is limited opportunity for
inorganic growth; there are only 7-8 players in the market.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

417
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• The management remains confident of delivering 30% topline growth in FY25. It is important to note that
this also includes the deal with Warner.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY17-24)

Financials

Sales 470 475 2,032 910 905 1,356 1,868 2,416 26.3
EBITDA (34) 96 63 (20) 552 862 1,019 1,585 NA
PAT 30 31 28 113 435 646 765 1,272 70.7
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin (7.1) 20.2 3.1 (2.2) 60.9 63.6 54.6 65.6 –

PAT margin 6.4 6.6 1.4 12.5 48.0 47.6 41.0 52.6 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.4) 0.2 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.8) –

EPS (Rs) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 3.4 5.0 6.0 9.9 –

BV (Rs) 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.3 7.9 8.0 10.6 14.0 –

RoCE (%) 11.4 10.3 11.5 18.1 52.6 64.3 77.0 86.5 –

RoA (%) 9.4 6.3 6.4 15.8 49.7 60.1 62.4 64.3 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 4.4 4.5 4.1 15.0 47.9 63.4 64.1 80.6 –

Net profit margin 6.4 6.6 1.4 12.5 48.0 47.6 41.0 52.6 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 –

Leverage factor (x) 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 –

418
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Titagarh Rail Systems

Price (Rs) 1,416
PRS profitability key monitorable
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TITW.BO
• Titagarh Rail Systems (TRSL) is targeting normalised production of
Bloomberg code TITAGARH IN
950-1,000 freight rail wagons per month from the current level of 700
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,285 wagons per month.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 20.9 • TRSL has guided a total capacity of 72 coaches per month in the next
Issued shares (mn) 135 three-five years. This will include 36 coaches for normal trains and
Target price (Rs) 1,215 36 metro train coaches. The target is to ramp-up production to 15-20
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M coaches per month from the current 3 coaches per month.

Absolute 34 51 301 • While the freight rail system has been doing good the passenger rail
Relative 34 51 283 systems is witnessing lower execution due to delays in Bengaluru
metro project and completion of Pune metro project. The company
Valuation Ratios
guided that 65% of the revenue shall come from the passenger rail
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
system segment in the next three to four years.
EPS (Rs) 24.8 29.5 42.0 • The pipeline for the Vande Bharat train coaches is very robust with an
+/- (%) – 18.9 42.3 outstanding order of 1,280 coaches.

PER (x) 57.0 47.9 33.7 • The opportunity size from Vande Bharat train is ~Rs 500 bn and
another ~Rs 700 bn from the mini-Vande Bharat trains. The company is
PBV (x) 7.6 6.6 5.5
confident of achieving robust margins from the Vande Bharat project
EV/Sales (x) 4.3 3.7 2.7 due to cost optimisation backed by design reengineering and pricing
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.2 30.8 22.0 renegotiations.

Major Shareholders (%) • The Ahmedabad and Surat Metro commercial production shall begin
from 2QFY25 which will lead to better execution for the year.
Promoters 42
FPIs 17 • Currently, the demand for wagons from the Indian Railways is 30,000-
MFs 11 35,000, of which the company has a market share of 12,000 wagons.
BFSI’s 3 However, additional freight corridors announced in the interim budget
Public & Others 27 may lead to additional demand.

Relative Performance • The company is open to inducting strategic partners for the ship

1,600 building and defence businesses.

1,400
1,200 • On the strategic partnership with ABB India to supply propulsion
1,000 systems for metro rolling stock projects in India, the company guided
800
600 for manufacturing majority of the propulsion systems in-house in the
400
200 next three to five years.
0
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Titagarh Rail System

Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Nikhil Kanodia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com nikhil.kanodia@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 10,604 14,842 10,258 14,955 27,805 38,533 44,259 59,505 27.3 24.3
EBITDA 615 1,289 1,193 1,684 2,643 4,519 5,289 7,412 44.0 28.1
PAT 717 814 459 815 1,496 2,969 3,531 5,025 20.2 30.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 28.7 27.4 28.7 28.2 22.7 22.5 23.0 23.5 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 5.8 8.7 11.6 11.3 9.5 11.7 11.9 12.5 – –

PAT margin 6.8 5.5 4.5 5.5 5.4 7.7 8.0 8.4 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) – –

EPS (Rs) 6.0 6.8 3.8 6.8 12.5 24.8 29.5 42.0 20.2 30.1
BV (Rs) 74.9 68.3 72.9 72.7 80.5 186.3 215.8 257.8 1.8 17.6
RoCE (%) 5.7 10.7 9.8 15.0 23.4 24.2 20.0 23.8 – –

RoA (%) 3.7 8.3 8.1 10.8 14.5 17.2 14.4 15.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 8.2 9.5 5.4 9.4 16.3 18.6 14.7 17.7 – –

Net profit margin 6.8 5.5 4.5 5.5 5.4 7.7 8.0 8.4 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Titagarh Rail Systems - 4QFY24 Result Update - 16 May
24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Trent

Price (Rs) 4,559
Established playbook sets the stage for sustained growth...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TREN.BO
Overall demand
Bloomberg code TRENT IN
• Consumer demand has seen headwinds since the last 12 months or so.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 19,425
• However, the small ticket discretionary has not lost totally. However,
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 41.2
the aspirations have outpaced income levels. Hence, consumers are
Issued shares (mn) 355 much more aware.
Target price (Rs) 5,050
• Although premiumisation trend is playing out, the Indian consumer
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M continues to seek value at all price points.
Absolute 3 17 192 Trent playbook
Relative 3 17 174
• The company emphasises on own brands ensuring quality and
Valuation Ratios relative price stability.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • Ownership of product design & curation, focus on speed of concept

EPS (Rs) 41.6 52.6 75.9 to market and consistency of offer across channels are the defining
features of the playbook. The company abstains any third-party
+/- (%) 275.3 26.6 44.3
intermediation.
PER (x) 109.7 86.6 60.0
• It commands full priced revenues which results in better brand
PBV (x) 39.8 27.8 19.3 equity and consumer retention.

Div./Yield (%) 0.0 0.1 0.1 Star Bazaar

EV/Sales (x) 13.1 9.1 6.9 • The revamped model has been seeing a lot of positive consumer
traction since the last five-six quarters.
EV/EBITDA (x) 84.0 55.4 41.2
• Star will be the third engine of growth after Westside and Zudio for
Major Shareholders (%)
Trent.
Promoters 37
• The broader playbook for Star Bazaar has revolved around better
FPIs 27
assortment, increased share of private labels, optimisation of store
MFs 9
layout and sharp pricing.
BFSI’s 5
Public & Others 22 • The performance of the stores under this model is encouraging and
Trent will continue to evolve its property portfolio to align with this
Relative Performance
proposition.
5,000
• In the foods business, the company seeks to increase its share of
4,000
private labels. In the FMCG vertical, retail brands span about 660
3,000
SKU’s.
2,000
1,000 • The online grocery portal “Starquik” is continuing to witness
0 encouraging customer traction.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• With the revised business model in place, Star is likely to witness

accelerated store expansion going forward.
Trent
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

421
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Competitive landscape
• The fashion and lifestyle industry will continue to be highly competitive. Focus for Trent is to remain in
the upper end of the pyramid.
• Small ticket size consumers will evolve and hence, it is important to change and remain relevant.
Miscellaneous
• Zudio store sizes have increased from ~4-5k sq ft to ~8-10k sq ft.
• Trent will focus on growing its portfolio/offerings organically even if the pace of growth is slower. The
recently introduced formats Samoh, Utsa and Misbu will see gradual expansion.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 26,302 34,860 25,930 44,980 82,420 123,751 176,077 230,065 36.3% 36.3%
EBITDA 2,277 5,440 1,719 5,739 10,737 19,221 28,920 38,394 53.2% 41.3%
PAT 948 1,060 (1,804) 552 3,937 14,775 18,705 26,995 73.2% 35.2%
Margin (%)
Gross margin 50.1% 46.0% 40.8% 44.8% 42.7% 43.8% 44.3% 43.2% – –
EBITDA margin 8.7% 15.6% 6.6% 12.8% 13.0% 15.5% 16.4% 16.7% – –
PAT margin 3.6% 3.0% -7.0% 1.2% 4.8% 11.9% 10.6% 11.7% – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.5) – –
EPS (Rs.) 2.9 3.0 -5.1 1.6 11.1 41.6 52.6 75.9 – –
BV (Rs.) 49.6 67.2 65.1 66.5 73.0 114.4 164.0 235.9 – –
RoCE(Rs.) 10.6 12.4 2.3 7.1 12.0 24.4 39.1 40.6 – –
RoA (Rs.) 8.9 10.9 2.1 6.5 10.6 20.2 29.5 30.1 – –
Du Pont Analysis (%)
RoE 5.9 5.3 -7.7 2.4 15.9 44.3 37.8 38.0 – –
Net profit margin 3.6 3.0 -7.0 1.2 4.8 11.9 10.6 11.7 – –
Asset Turnover (x) 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.0 – –
Leverage factor (x) 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Trent - 4QFY24 Result Update - 30 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data TTK Prestige

Price (Rs) 678
Near-term headwinds persist
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code TTKL.BO
• Demand environment remains challenging as share of wallet towards
Bloomberg code TTKPT IN
discretionary spends reduces given more spending avenues open for
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,127 consumers.
6m avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.8 • Channel inventory is currently low, but the company has not seen the
Issued shares (mn) 139 growth in 1QFY25 yet and believes demand to have bottomed out.
Target price (Rs) 948 • Increase in competitive intensity, lower exports due to geopolitical
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M concerns, and pricing pressure are factors contributing to margin
Absolute (3) (9) (1) pressures.
Relative (4) (10) (20) • It is witnessing price competition mainly from two regional/smaller
players which has led to increase in pricing premium between TTK
Valuation Ratios
Prestige (TTK) and other smaller players.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• TTK is confident of reaching double-digit growth going ahead which
EPS (Rs) 16.9 20.3 25.0
will lead to margin improvement. Focus will be on maintaining margins
+/- (%) (7.9) 20.0 22.6 and growth will be mainly driven by volumes as scope for pricing led
PER (x) 40.2 33.5 27.3 growth is limited.
• There is huge opportunity in shift from mass to mass-premium driven
PBV (x) 4.4 4.3 4.2
by rural aspirations and urbanisation. Shift from mass-premium to
Dividend/Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6
premium is a smaller opportunity.
EV/Sales (x) 3.2 2.9 2.6 • Replacement cycle for cookware and appliances is reducing, whereas
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.0 22.4 18.5 cooker replacement is still intact. Replacement cycle for small
domestic is declining faster. At industry level, there is also a visible shift
Major Shareholders (%)
from aluminium to stainless steel cooker leading to premiumisation.
Promoters 70
FPIs 7
• The company has indicated that the Government has been actively
MFs 12 introducing non-tariff barriers to curb unnecessary imports and is
BFSI’s 3 expected to introduce measures to begin using recycled aluminium
Public & Others 8 in cookers and cook-wares for sustainability.
• It is confident of clocking mid-teens growth in appliances and cookers
Relative Performance
category as market gradually starts to turnaround. The company is
1,200
1,000 formulating strategies to bring back growth which will kick in operative
800 leverage and is confident that it will continue to perform better than
600 industry and peers going ahead.
400
200 • It has also rationalised its product portfolio by dropping categories
0 like Air fryers and OTG due to higher competition from China and lower
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

volumes.

TTK Prestige
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

423
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Expects demand to gradually recover as robust real estate booking and delivery starts being occupied
and eventually lead to sales in kitchen appliances three-four quarters down the line.
• In Judge brand, the company will keep avoiding categories which could possibly be commoditised in the
future. The company is trying to address the challenges of possible downtrading by the consumers from
Prestige to Judge as Prestige brand is premium to Judge.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 21,069 20,730 21,942 27,225 27,771 26,843 29,685 33,621 7.1 11.9
EBITDA 2,920 2,635 3,273 4,259 3,585 3,171 3,853 4,703 5.3 21.8
PAT 1,924 1,939 2,429 3,054 2,550 2,349 2,820 3,458 7.3 21.3
Margin (%)

Gross margin 42.1 41.9 41.8 41.4 40.2 41.0 41.5 42.0 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 13.9 12.7 14.9 15.6 12.9 11.8 13.0 14.0 – –

PAT margin 9.1 9.4 11.1 11.2 9.2 8.8 9.5 10.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) – –

EPS (Rs) 13.9 14.0 17.5 22.0 18.4 16.9 20.3 25.0 7.3 21.3
BV (Rs) 84.1 94.2 108.6 124.8 139.9 153.2 156.6 161.2 13.5 2.6
RoCE (%) 23.6 18.9 20.9 23.9 17.7 15.0 17.0 20.3 – –

RoA (%) 18.1 14.6 16.5 18.7 14.0 11.6 12.5 14.4 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.6 15.7 17.3 18.9 13.9 11.6 13.1 15.7 – –

Net profit margin 9.1 9.4 11.1 11.2 9.2 8.8 9.5 10.3 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Union Bank of India

Price (Rs) 160
Bank targets strong credit growth amid deposit cost challenges
BSE Sensex 73,961 with MSME focus
Reuters code UNBK.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code UNBK IN We met Mr Ramasubramanian S, ED, and Mr Avinash Vasant Prabhu,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 14,652 CFO from Union Bank of India at our Trinity Conference. Following are
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 41.2 the key takeaways of the meeting:
Issued shares (mn) 7,634 Guidance
Target price (Rs) 170 • Credit growth at 11-13%.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The bank is facing some challenges on the deposit cost front.
Absolute 4 9 125 • NIM: 285-300 bps.
Relative 4 9 107 • The bank aims for Rs 115 bn slippages in FY25.
Valuation Ratios • Even in the case of NIM of 285 bps, RoA would be at 100 bps.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E Loan bifurcation based on lending rate regimes
Adj. EPS (Rs) 17.9 20.7 22.3 • 47% of loans are on EBLR, 42% of loans would be on MCLR.

BVPS (Rs) 119.6 136.1 153.8 • Some of the loans are linked to T-Bills (EBLR) also.

Adj. Book 112.0 129.2 146.1

Change in the bank’s focus towards MSME credit
NAV/share (Rs) • The bank is looking at larger ticket size MSME as compared to the
PER (x) 8.9 7.7 7.1 smaller ones. Average ticket size of the large MSME loans would be at
Rs 100 mn-1.0 bn.
Price/Book (x) 1.3 1.2 1.0
Deposit mobilisation concerns
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1
• HDFC bank merger has also created competition for deposits.
Div. Yield (%) 2.5 3.2 3.5
• Wholesale deposit rates have come down in 1QFY25 from 4QFY24.
Major Shareholders (%)
Expectations of rate cuts
Promoters 75
• Rate cut expectations are from November onwards.
FPIs 7
MFs 3 On employee cost
BFSI’s 9 • The bank expects a normalised rate of employee expenses to be
Public & Others 6 between Rs 33-35 bn every quarter during FY25E, with an increase of
6-7% YoY.
Relative Performance
Asset quality performance
200
• Slippages would normalise this year. Agri NPAs account would revive
150
as and when the same set of customers come for fresh loans and
100
they close overdues. MSME NPAs are elevated due to slippages
50
from Mudra loans. Around 40% of the MSME loans are under special
0
subvention schemes. In the MSME loan under such schemes takes
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

six-eight months to receive the payment back from the government.

Union Bank of India

Sensex (rebased)
Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

425
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

On slippage
• Agri slippages were higher in 4QFY24 due to the seasonality of agriculture-related repayments and
crops, which typically occur in the fourth quarter.
• The bank has Pan India agri loan portfolio with concentration in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka,
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
• Agri slippages will be converted into advances when the repayment comes in.
• MSME slippage increase is normal during the quarter. MSME and agri book is not linked; however, in food
processing – rice and dal processing is included in agri, other than that is all MSME.
• Credit cost guidance for FY25E is 60-70 bps or <1%.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 102,149 114,368 246,884 277,865 327,653 365,704 398,547 432,295 29.1 8.7
Operating Expense 71,676 75,164 167,660 184,381 219,313 244,400 264,276 291,757 27.8 9.3
Operating Profit 75,212 91,811 196,669 218,733 254,672 282,106 303,504 341,112 30.3 10.0
PAT (29,474) (28,978) 29,060 52,322 84,333 136,483 157,766 170,278 na 11.7
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 264,870 337,856 644,767 705,761 783,342 969,690 1,092,393 1,224,828 29.6 12.4
Advances 2,969,322 3,150,494 5,909,829 6,610,047 7,618,455 8,707,761 9,856,710 11,092,614 24.0 12.9
Deposits 4,159,153 4,506,685 9,238,053 10,323,926 11,177,163 12,215,284 13,404,248 14,858,143 24.0 10.3
Total Assets 4,940,388 5,506,833 10,717,058 11,875,911 12,807,525 13,919,576 15,292,907 16,949,644 23.0 10.3
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS (25) (16) 5 8 12 18 21 22 na 11.7
BV 138 89 93 96 106 120 136 154 (2.8) 13.4
ABV 63 57 65 73 93 112 129 146 12.3 14.2
Return Ratios (%)
ROA (0.6) (0.6) 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 – –
ROE (11.4) (9.6) 5.9 7.7 11.3 15.6 15.3 14.7 – –
Margins (%)
NIMs 2.2 2.3 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 – –
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 15.0 14.2 13.7 11.1 7.5 4.8 4.1 3.9 – –
NNPA 6.8 5.5 4.6 3.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 – –
PCR 58.3 64.7 69.6 69.5 78.8 79.1 80.8 79.9 – –
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 9.9 10.6 10.4 12.2 13.9 15.0 16.4 16.1 – –
Total cap. adequacy 12.3 12.7 12.6 14.5 16.0 17.0 18.7 18.3 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Union Bank of India - 4QFY24 Result Update - 13 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data United Spirits

Price (Rs) 1,159
Sustainable long-term growth…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code UNSP.BO
• Growth outlook: In FY24, the P&A segment grew by 11.8%, with volume/
Bloomberg code UNSP IN
realisation growth of 5.3%/6.2%, respectively. Realisation in the Regular
Market cap. (US$ mn) 10,107 category grew by 33.6% in FY24. Going forward, topline growth should
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 13.6 remain steady in the low double-digits, with mid-to-high single digit
Issued shares (mn) 727 volume growth and low-to-mid single digit pricing growth.
Target price (Rs) 1,160 UK FTA benefit
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The company cannot predict the timeline of this happening.
Absolute (2) (1) 31 • Currently, the overall 150% duty accounts for 15% of the value.
Relative (2) (1) 13 • So, hypothetically if the duty comes down by 10%, MRP should come
Valuation Ratios down by 1%. Lower prices will result in incremental volumes.

Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E • This event can also result in consumption upgrades.

EPS (Rs) 19.5 23.7 28.1 Innovations

• The company won’t shy away from beer business. However, it is not on
+/- (%) 46.4 21.3 18.3
the cards yet.
PER (x) 59.9 49.4 41.7
• During the IPL, the company had launched RC play for a limited period.
PBV (x) 12.0 10.0 8.3 It was a beer flavoured whiskey.
EV/Sales (x) 7.4 6.5 5.7 • The company is also entering into the white spirits category with
EV/EBITDA (x) 41.6 35.6 29.9 McDowell’s. The brandy will cater to the mid prestige to upper prestige
segment.
Major Shareholders (%)
IPL
Promoters 57
FPIs 17
• Overall, contribution of Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) on EBIT on a
MFs 10 full year basis is Rs 2.7-2.8 bn. This is sustainable for five years.
BFSI’s 2 • However, the company gets to advertise with Virat Kohli for 45 days,
Public & Others 14 where his advertising expense is fixed. Any incremental volumes, the
company gets following the advertisement is entirely the company’s
Relative Performance
profit and Virat Kohli gets no cut out of it.
1,300
1,200 • On the other hand, women’s IPL is expected to remain stable for the
1,100 coming three years.
1,000
900 Raw material update
800 • The company is not expecting further reduction in glass prices.
700
• Supplies issues persist at glass manufacturer level. Hence, the entire
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

benefits may not flow through.

United Spirits • Broken rice availability problem will take time to resolve.
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

427
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR(%) CAGR(%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 93,408 93,254 81,313 97,124 106,116 113,210 128,001 142,630 3.9 12.2

EBITDA 13,936 15,723 10,527 16,081 14,168 20,010 23,396 27,390 7.5 17.0

PAT 6,818 5,849 4,053 9,338 9,704 14,209 17,241 20,395 15.8 19.8

Margin (%)

Gross margin 50.7 46.1 45.2 45.5 42.9 46.6 46.8 47.9 – –

EBITDA margin 14.9 16.9 12.9 16.6 13.4 17.7 18.3 19.2 – –

PAT margin 7.3 6.3 5.0 9.6 9.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 7.3 6.3 5.0 9.6 9.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 – –

EPS (Rs.) 9.4 8.0 5.6 12.8 13.3 19.5 23.7 28.1 – –

BV (Rs.) 42.5 51.3 56.7 68.1 82.5 98.0 116.9 141.0 – –

RoCE(Rs.) 20.8 21.3 14.1 25.6 20.9 28.9 30.3 29.9 – –

RoA (Rs.) 13.8 14.6 9.1 15.4 12.9 18.6 21.4 23.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis

RoE 24.8 17.2 10.3 20.6 17.7 21.7 22.1 21.8 – –

Net profit margin 7.3 6.3 5.0 9.6 9.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data UPL

Price (Rs) 509
All focus on recovery from Latin America
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code UPLL.BO
• The company targets a 6-8% topline growth and aims to expand its
Bloomberg code UPLL IN
absolute EBITDA by 50% in FY25E. Management also suggested the
Market cap. (US$ mn) 4,577 possibility of exceeding its EBITDA guidance.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 25.3 • The company plans to reduce debt by US$ 800 mn to US$ 1 bn by
Issued shares (mn) 751 the end of FY25 through a combination of rights issues and internal
Target price (Rs) 407 accruals, aiming to bring the net debt/EBITDA to 2x.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Prioritising tightening of credit and restricting further working capital
Absolute 0 8 (26) build up is expected to release a generous amount of cash flow in
Relative 0 8 (44) FY25/26E.
• On the path of achieving 50% revenue from Differentiated/Sustainable
Valuation Ratios
solution by FY27 with 26 molecules in development pipeline.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• 6 new product launches in UPL SAS with focus on strengthening
EPS (Rs) 0.4 16.1 34
presence in Rice, Vegetables and Maize.
+/- (%) NA NA NA • NPP segment has seen growth during the quarter with 10 new AI in
PER (x) 1,363.4 31.6 15.0 pipeline with US$ 700 mn by FY27 (ex. India).

Price/Book (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 • The company is expected to focus on margins over volume in FY25
with tailwinds in input cost and better commercial terms.
EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.3 1.1
• UPL aims to generate additional cash flows especially in Brazil,
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 7.2 5.6
maintain its leadership position and aligning credit terms for product
Major Shareholders (%) margins.
Promoters 32 • Rights issue is expected by the end of 2QFY25/beginning of 3QFY25.
FPIs 37
MFs 6
BFSI’s 9
Public & Others 15

Relative Performance
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

UPL
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 218,370 357,560 386,940 462,390 535,760 430,980 455,777 503,862 14.6 8.1

EBITDA 41,100 71,040 85,590 101,640 111,600 55,150 79,934 99,208 6.1 34.1

PAT 22,390 27,300 33,160 45,850 47,040 280 12,069 25,479 (58.4) 853.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 50.1 47.6 50.6 52.3 49.1 43.2 48.0 50.0 – –

EBITDA margin 18.8 19.9 22.1 22.0 20.8 12.8 17.5 19.7 – –

PAT margin 10.3 7.6 8.6 9.9 8.8 0.1 2.6 5.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 – –

EPS (Rs) 29.3 35.7 43.3 59.9 62.7 0.4 16.1 34.0 (58.4) 853.9

BV (Rs) 192.4 252.1 273.0 322.4 397.9 370.6 391.8 421.1 14.0 6.6

RoCE (%) 10.6 10.0 12.4 14.6 15.0 5.1 8.7 11.2 – –

RoA (%) 8.1 7.8 9.5 10.6 10.6 3.7 6.5 8.4 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 18.7 16.1 16.5 20.1 17.3 0.1 4.2 8.4 – –

Net profit margin 10.3 7.6 8.6 9.9 8.8 0.1 2.6 5.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/UPL - 4QFY24 Result Update - 13 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Usha Martin

Price (Rs) 365
Capex completion and higher VAP share will be the key
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code USBL.BO
• We showcased Ms Shreya Jhawar, daughter of Mr Rajeev Jhawar, in
Bloomberg code USM IN our next gen promoter series, who was impressive with her handle
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,332 on the business in just two years’ time with the company. As Director
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 4.6 of Strategy, she has well thought out plans for increasing market
share for the company through better mix/geographies.
Issued shares (mn) 305
• Despite a marginal decline of 3.1% in revenue, largely attributable
Target price (Rs) 471
to lower volumes, the company’s wire rope segment continues to
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
demonstrate stability, contributing 71% to the overall revenue. Usha
Absolute (3) 11 60 Martin’s sustained focus on value-added products and global
Relative (3) 11 42 expansion efforts have led to improved margins year-on-year.

Valuation Ratios • The company’s expansion strategy in Saudi Arabia has shown
promising results, particularly with Brunton Wire Ropes performing
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
well. Initial shipments to Saudi Arabia have commenced, with revenue
EPS (Rs) 13.9 16.8 21.7 expected to materialise in 1QFY25 and further benefits anticipated
Change (%) 21.0 20.9 28.7 throughout FY25.
• Net debt has improved significantly, standing at Rs 1,240 mn compared
PER (x) 26.1 21.6 16.8
to Rs 1,841 mn previously. This reflects a positive trend in financial
PBV (x) 4.7 4.0 3.4 management.
Div./Yield (%) 0.8 1.1 1.4 • The Red Sea crisis and recent geopolitical issues created a logistic
problem and led to higher transit time for the customers. Due to these
EV/Sales (x) 3.5 2.7 2.2
logistical challenges, the company is maintaining higher inventory in
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.8 14.3 11.0 their books.
Major Shareholders (%) • The completion of capex in 4QFY24 is expected to drive a production
Promoters 45 ramp-up in 1QFY25, with an anticipated increase of volume by 15-20 KT
FPIs 16 in FY25 as compared to FY24.
MFs 3 • Overall, 85% of the business comes from the replacement market and
Public & Others 35 the company maintains the 2-4-month order book. The UK order book
also looks healthy (8 months).
Relative Performance
• The sequential change in EBITDA/tonne is largely due to product mix
430
380
change; however, they are mainly focusing on YoY improvement.
330 • Brunton Shaw won some big orders recently. Sourcing of RM from
280
230 Thailand plant helped the company to reduce the cost by US$ 300-
180 400/tonne as compared to sourcing RM from EU market.
130
80 • In the wave 2 capex, the company will come out with aluminium and
zinc wire for rock fall barrier which is a high margin product.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• As per their recently announced segment, synthetic slings (application

Usha Martin for Oil & Gas and Wind energy sector) will come into play from 2QFY25,
Sensex (rebased)
and they will target geographies like UK and within EU, and in later
stage they will target US.
Rajesh Majumdar Pratim Roy
Director-Research Research Analyst
rajesh.majumdar@bksec.com pratim.roy@bksec.com

431
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Steel prices are down by Rs 6,000/tonne YoY, which is very sensitive to LRPC prices, so LRPC prices have
come down from Rs 71,000/tonne to Rs 63,000/tonne. On the wire side, realisation has come down from Rs
90,000/tonne to Rs 80,000/tonne.
• Plasticated LRPC is a project-based business, the company is targeting production of 3-5 KT per month,
which will generate realisation of Rs 135,000/tonne and margin contribution of Rs 55,000/tonne.
• As the company has expanded their capacity, they have hired professionals to develop the business in
different markets, however this extra cost will be converted into revenue in the coming quarters.
• US business current sales stood at ~7-8 KT per annum and expected to grow by 15% per annum in the next
two-three years.
• For the upcoming demand from the mining side, the company is focusing on wave 2 capex which will
come out in the next 18 months. However, the company is getting good business from O&G and wind
energy segment (20% contribution).
• In conclusion, Usha Martin demonstrates resilience and adaptability in navigating market dynamics,
while pursuing avenues for sustainable growth. With a strategic focus on product diversification, margin
enhancement, and geographic expansion, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on emerging
opportunities and deliver value to stakeholders in the long-term.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-FY24) (FY24E-26E)

Financials

Sales 24,883 21,538 20,973 26,881 32,678 32,252 39,994 47,854 5.3 21.8
EBITDA 3,151 2,316 2,836 3,837 5,133 5,986 7,660 9,748 13.7 27.6
PAT 3,920 (621) 1,559 2,914 3,506 4,241 5,126 6,599 1.6 24.7
Margin (%)

Gross Margin 39.2 43.1 44.2 44.7 44.7 49.4 50.7 53.0 – –

EBITDA Margin 12.7 10.8 13.5 14.3 15.7 18.6 19.2 20.4 – –

PAT Margin 15.8 (2.9) 7.4 10.8 10.7 13.2 12.8 13.8 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 3.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 12.8 (2.1) 5.1 9.6 11.5 13.9 16.8 21.7 1.7 24.7
BV (Rs) 25.6 41.7 45.5 55.6 66.7 78.1 91.0 107.6 25.0 17.4
ROCE (%) 13.6 7.4 12.3 16.4 20.0 21.0 22.6 25.0 – –

RoA (%) 7.9 4.6 9.5 13.1 16.3 17.5 19.2 21.4 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE (%) 100.3 (6.2) 11.9 18.8 18.8 19.2 19.9 21.8 – –

Net Profit Margin 15.8 (2.9) 7.4 10.8 10.7 13.2 12.8 13.8 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 – –

Leverage Factor (x) 9.0 4.8 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Usha Martin - 4QFY24 Result Update - 29 Apr 24.pdf

432
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data UTI Asset Management Company

Price (Rs) 909
Equity lead growth
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code UTIA.BO
• Equity will be the major growth driver, accompanied by high-yielding
Bloomberg code UTIAM IN
fixed-income products. On the fund side, the gap remains in the multi-
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,386 cap fund, which will be launched according to market conditions. ETFs
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.3 and Index funds are in the pipeline.
Issued shares (mn) 127 • The Multi-Asset fund has been doing well for the last three-four
Target price (Rs) 1,140 quarters. Late entry into small cap funds and flows focused towards
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M small cap/thematic schemes and not diversified schemes impacted

Absolute (4) 1 28 market share.

Relative (5) 1 10 • Employee costs on a standalone basis should remain static over the
next three-four years. The benefits that will be there due to retiring
Valuation Ratios
employees will be offset by salary hikes.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• On a consolidated level, employee costs are expected to increase by
EPS (Rs) 60.3 48.6 51.2 2% to 3% due to the team’s expansion across UTI International, UTI RSL
P/E 15.1 18.7 17.7 and UTI AIF.

BVPS (Rs) 391.7 405.7 420.5 • UTI is planning to launch 2-3 funds in UTI International.
• ETF yield will be less than five bps; Index funds will be closer to 15 bps to
P/B 2.3 2.2 2.2
18 bps.
Major Shareholders (%)
• EPFO business does not see any risk and has remained stable.
FPIs 6
MFs 15
BFSI’s 46
Public & Others 33

Relative Performance
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

UTI AMC
Sensex (rebased)

Swarnabha Mukherjee Dakshal Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
swarnabha.mukherjee@bksec.com dakshal.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY20-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Revenue from operations 8,906 7,879 8,066 11,189 11,314 11,821 13,438 14,526 11 11

Other Income 1,903 1,021 3,921 2,084 1,587 5,619 3,072 2,881 53 (28)

Total Income 10,809 8,900 11,986 13,273 12,901 17,439 16,510 17,407 18 0

Employee benefits 3,067 3,399 3,795 4,067 4,145 4,393 4,568 4,788 7 4

Other Expenses 2,517 1,723 1,774 2,209 2,472 2,737 3,177 3,391 12 11

Total Expenses 5,896 5,487 5,956 6,671 7,045 7,571 8,275 8,738 8 7

Operating profit 5,286 3,842 6,469 7,062 6,351 10,404 8,856 9,320 28 (5)

PAT 3,528 2,714 4,941 5,343 4,374 7,657 6,177 6,502 30 (8)

Shareholder’s funds 26,530 27,831 32,631 36,316 38,678 49,732 51,512 53,385 16 4

AAUM (Rs bn) 3,813 9,841 10,714 12,809 14,701 17,274 19,695 22,220 15 13

As of AUM (bps)

Revenue from Operations – 8.0 7.5 8.7 7.7 6.8 6.8 6.5 – –

Employee Benefit Exp. – 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 – –

Other Expenses – 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 – –

PAT – 2.8 4.6 4.2 3.0 4.4 3.1 2.9 – –

Core PAT – 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 – –

Ratio (x)

EPS (Rs) 16.7 12.8 38.9 42.1 34.4 60.3 48.6 51.2 47 (8)

P/E 176.6 230.8 75.9 22.0 26.9 15.1 18.7 17.7 `– –

BVPS (Rs) 126.3 131.9 153.9 286.0 304.6 391.7 405.7 420.5 31 4

P/B 23.4 22.4 19.2 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/UTI Asset Management Company - 4QFY24 Result Update
- 26 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data V-Guard Industries

Price (Rs) 370
All levers in place for next leg of growth and profitability
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VGUA.BO
• Pick-up for cooling products like Air coolers, inverter stabiliser, etc.
Bloomberg code VGRD IN
remained encouraging during April 2024 continuing its momentum
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,930 from 4QFY24.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.5 • While Fans demand was decent, Air coolers and Inverter stabilisers
Issued shares (mn) 435 have been growing faster than Fans. V-Guard Industries (VGRD) is in
Target price (Rs) 328 the process of setting up facility for premium TPW fans which will be
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M commissioned in the next 18-24 months in Hyderabad.

Absolute 8 14 48 • However, demand for non-summer products remained weak and

Relative 8 14 29 has not seen any meaningful uptick. The company aims to deliver
improved topline growth in the coming quarters.
Valuation Ratios
• Along with topline, it also focuses on improving the margins in the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
coming quarters partly on the back of contribution from new factory
EPS (Rs) 5.4 7.1 10.0 in kitchen appliances. It expects to recover to double-digit margins in
+/- (%) 28 31 41 the long run and will strive to reach 10-10.5% in FY25.

PER (x) 68.3 52.2 37.0 • Sunflame continues to deliver robust growth on the back of leveraging
various strategic initiatives implemented over the last year. VGRD has
PBV (x) 8.9 8.0 6.9
started integrating the operations of Sunflame and VGRD beginning
Div./Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.8 with e-commerce channel.
EV/Sales (x) 3.5 3.1 2.6 • Sunflame is expected to see significant traction in FY25 and better
EV/EBITDA (x) 45.2 35.6 26.0 visibility from FY26 onwards.
• The company has invested in Gigadyne Lab which is a technology
Major Shareholders (%)
company working on next generation battery technology. The
Promoters 54
company is currently in pilot manufacturing phase and VGRD has
FPIs 13
invested in this company mainly to safeguard its interest in the inverter
MFs 20
battery business.
Public & Others 12
• In terms of distribution, the company believes south region has
Relative Performance
matured and further penetration is difficult. It will see higher growth in
400
non-South going ahead.
350
• The company’s direct sales contribution stands at 20-22% for VGRD
300
250
where it is still under indexed than the industry by 20-25% but is
200 gradually growing YoY. The company plans to shift more of its indirect
150 business to direct distribution model.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

V-Guard Industries
Sensex (rebased)

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 25,665 24,819 26,990 34,747 40,508 45,594 52,199 60,361 12.1 15.1

EBITDA 2,195 2,533 3,065 3,321 3,019 3,536 4,472 6,093 8.3 31.3

PAT 1,656 1,852 1,990 2,268 1,803 2,309 3,020 4,264 2.1 35.9

Margin (%)

Gross margin 29.9 33.2 31.5 30.5 28.9 31.1 32.5 32.8 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 8.6 10.2 11.4 9.6 7.5 7.8 8.6 10.1 – –

PAT margin 6.5 7.5 7.4 6.5 4.5 5.1 5.8 7.1 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 – –

EPS (Rs) 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 4.2 5.4 7.1 10.0 2.1 35.9

BV (Rs) 21.2 23.4 28.4 33.0 37.4 41.6 46.7 53.8 15.3 13.7

RoCE (%) 25.5 25.2 24.9 21.5 14.4 16.0 19.8 24.2 – –

RoA (%) 17.2 17.8 17.6 15.1 10.8 12.1 14.4 17.5 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 20.1 19.6 18.1 17.4 12.1 13.8 16.1 20.0 – –

Net profit margin 6.5 7.5 7.4 6.5 4.5 5.1 5.8 7.1 – –

Asset turnover (x) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/V-Guard Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update - 18 May
24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data V-Mart Retail

Price (Rs) 2,111
Focus on profitable growth…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VMAR.BO
Agility with changing business environment
Bloomberg code VMART IN
• Overall, consumer perception and approach towards fashion has
Market cap. (US$ mn) 500
changed a bit.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.1
• The consumers philosophy towards value has increased. ASP has
Issued shares (mn) 20 come down, but basket size is marginally same.
Target price (Rs) 2,800
• The approach is to give premiumise the touch and feel of products.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M The company does not want to compromise on quality.
Absolute (2) 10 4 • Of the 25 mn customers, 20 mn customers don’t have air conditioners
Relative (2) 10 (14) in their house. So, selling these customers polyester made products
Valuation Ratios will result in itching. Similarly, these customers dry the apparels in
scorching heat which results in fading of colour. Hence, the company
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
cannot compromise on its quality at all.
EPS (Rs) (48.9) (16.1) 21.6
• The company is focusing on scalable actions with a long-term
PER (x) (42.8) (130.2) 97.1 vision. The decisions will not be made to benefit in the near-term. It is
PBV (x) 5.5 5.8 5.5 benchmarking the best practices in the industry.

Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 LimeRoad update

EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.2 1.0 • The company is not in race with Myntra and Amazon.
• It is building an omni-channel and has its own niche market.
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.6 10.5 7.5
Competitive intensity
Major Shareholders (%)
• Meesho was aggressive in women’s ethnic wear.
Promoters 44
FPIs 15
• Currently, V-Mart Retail (VMART) registers 12% contribution from this
MFs 32 category which has delivered 5% SSSG in the last three years.
BFSI’s 2 • Had Meesho not been in play, VMART could have grown better.
Public & Others 6 • Mass audience is going to Meesho due to lower price points.
Relative Performance New scoring system
5,000 • VMART has developed a new system to measure consumers store
4,500
4,000 experience and gather consumer feedback.
3,500
3,000 • The company has witnessed 70% repeat customers in the last two
2,500
2,000
months.
1,500
1,000 Guidance
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• FY25 is expected to be good. Growth will come on the back of change

in consumer demand, improvement in demand witnessed in tier 4 in
V-Mart Retail the last two months and changes implemented by the management.
Sensex (rebased)
• Opex cost per store will reduce gradually. The company expects the
store level opex to come down to Rs 14 mn.
Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

437
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• Currently, the store level inventory is Rs 15 mn. It expects the inventory days will reduce by 10 days.
• It is planning to keep the pricing at similar levels. It is expected to go down marginally by 2-3% this year.
• Chain management will improvise gradually.
• The company expects more 10-12 store closures to come. Store closures will be an ongoing process. Loss
making stores will be closed.
• It is comfortable to maintain its gross margins at 32%.
• It has achieved 40% of the changes it aims to achieve.
• It will be integrating its purchasing and designing team soon.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24E-26E)

Financials

Sales 14,322 16,620 10,755 16,662 24,648 27,856 31,854 36,934 14.5 15.1

EBITDA 1,329 2,138 1,312 2,044 2,689 2,131 3,737 5,164 19.3 55.7

PAT 1,076 695 (62) 117 40 (968) (318) 427 (56.2) –

Margin (%)

Gross margin 32.3 32.2 32.7 34.5 35.2 34.5 35.5 36.0 – –

EBITDA margin 9.3 12.9 12.2 12.3 10.9 7.6 11.7 14.0 – –

PAT margin 7.5 4.2 (0.6) 0.7 0.2 (3.5) (1.0) 1.2 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.0) (0.4) (0.2) 0.1 0.0 (0.3) (0.4) – –

EPS (Rs) 59.3 38.3 (3.1) 5.9 2.0 (48.9) (16.1) 21.6 – –

BV (Rs) 225.5 252.8 418.7 430.2 429.4 377.8 359.9 378.9 – –

RoCE (Rs) 28.7 18.8 4.3 5.7 5.4 0.6 7.6 13.9 – –

RoA (Rs) 18.8 13.4 3.5 4.7 4.3 0.4 5.5 9.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 28.4 16.0 (1.0) 1.4 0.5 (12.1) (4.4) 5.8 – –

Net profit margin 7.5 4.2 (0.6) 0.7 0.2 (3.5) (1.0) 1.2 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/V-Mart Retail - 4QFY24 Result Update - 15 May 24.pdf

438
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Vardhman Special Steels

Price (Rs) 300
Structurally well placed, becoming greener than ever...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VARM.BO
• Vardhman Special Steels (VSSL) emphasised that its carbon footprint
Bloomberg code VSSL IN
has come down to 0.7 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel. It is expected
Market cap. (US$ mn) 293 that to further fell to 0.45 when solar plant comes in place and further
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.6 to 0.2 by FY26 as the company plans to switch to renewable power
Issued shares (mn) 81 from the grid.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The company worked on reducing rejection rates for Toyota global
Absolute 1 47 44 and it has come down to Indian OEM levels. The company has also

Relative 1 46 26 started to receive approvals from Yamaha.

• The plant load factor (PLF) from solar plant is expected to be 18% (80
Valuation Ratios
mn units expected to be generated out of 55 MW plant). Current cost/
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
unit for the company is Rs 7/unit and it will be Rs 3.5-4/unit post solar
EPS (Rs) 12.4 12.3 11.2 plant comes in place. VSSL can save Rs 50-150 mn annually from this
Change (%) 127.9 (0.6) (8.8) solar plant.

PER (x) 23.9 24.1 26.4 • On the capex front, the company has placed orders for the cox block
and reheating furnace at the cost of Rs 1.4 bn which will come by
PBV (x) 4.3 3.8 3.4
9MFY25 and FY25 end, respectively. Additionally, VSSL is planning on
Div./Yield (%) 0.6 0.3 0.3 spending more Rs 330 mn to take capacity from 260 KT to 285 KT. This
EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.5 1.5 is in addition to current ongoing capex. This bring total current capex
spend to Rs 4.3 bn and will be done over the next two-three years.
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 17.9 17.5
• Management has guided an EBITDA/kg range of Rs 7-10 for FY25 (lower
Major Shareholders (%)
because of another planned shutdown during FY25 which will lead to
Promoters 61 higher other expenses), Rs 8-11 for FY26 as all capacities come in place
MFs 3
and furthermore, the company aspires to take it to Rs 9-12 by FY26.
Public & Others 36
• Globally, there is a premium provided for green steel players, but in
Relative Performance India, green steel is yet to be adopted in a big scale and hence does
390 not command a premium yet.
340
• Exports (including Aichi) for FY24 stood at 12 KT (7.3 KT to Aichi). It is
290
240 expected to go to 16-17 KT in FY25.
190
• VSSL has entered into discussions for the greenfield plant and forging
140
90 plant integration and is expecting to look into getting a land soon.
In the next few months, the company expects that it will be able to
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

decide the state and then start identifying land parcels. The company
Vardhman Special… expects to start the greenfield project post current expansion plans
Sensex (rebased) get over.

Sailesh Raja Aryan Sharma

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com aryan.sharma@bksec.com

439
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 11,208 8,462 9,371 13,685 17,350 16,614 8.2

EBITDA 679 398 1,035 1,737 1,413 1,424 16.0
PAT 222 33 442 1,008 1,004 916 32.8
Margin (%)

Gross margin 40.1 36.4 44.0 41.8 36.1 39.1 –

EBITDA margin 6.1 4.7 11.0 12.7 8.1 8.6 –
PAT margin 2.0 0.4 4.7 7.4 5.8 5.5 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 2.7 0.4 5.4 12.4 12.3 11.2 32.7
BV (Rs) 44.6 50.9 56.6 68.3 78.8 88.3 14.6
RoCE (%) 7.2 3.4 12.9 25.2 19.6 17.3 –
RoA (%) 5.8 2.8 10.9 20.4 15.6 13.6 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 6.3 0.9 10.1 19.9 16.8 13.5 –

Net profit margin 2.0 0.4 4.7 7.4 5.8 5.5 –
Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 –
Leverage factor (x) 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Vardhman Special Steels - 4QFY24 Result - Flash Note -
02 May 24.pdf

440
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Varun Beverages

Price (Rs) 1,427
Sustaining healthy volume growth momentum
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VARB.BO
Growth outlook
Bloomberg code VBL IN
• Despite a weak summer last year, Varun Beverages (VBL) ended CY23
Market cap. (US$ mn) 22,221
with double-digit volume growth. While 1QCY24 has been relatively
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 36.8 soft due to delayed seasonality, volumes should be recovered in 2Q,
Issued shares (mn) 1,299 given the strong summer this time around.
Target price (Rs) 1,550 • Sting is growing at a strong pace and now contributes ~15% of the
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M total volumes in India.
Absolute (4) 1 68 • With significant capacity expansions in place, dairy beverages and
Relative (4) 1 50 Gatorade (currently contributing only ~1% of total domestic volumes)
should see a strong pick-up in CY24.
Valuation Ratios
• The company remains confident of maintaining low-double digits
Yr to 31 Mar CY23 CY24E CY25E
volume growth in the medium-term.
EPS (Rs) 16.2 19.2 25.8
BevCo South Africa
+/- (%) 35.6 18.4 34.7
• With the foray into South Africa, seasonality should reduce to some
PER (x) 88.2 74.5 55.3 extent.
PBV (x) 26.7 21.0 17.0 • South Africa is ~1 bn case market. BevCo currently has ~14% market

Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.5 0.7 share in South Africa, with ~2% from PepsiCo’s brands and ~12% from
its own brands.
EV/Sales (x) 11.8 9.6 7.9
• Focus for VBL is to grow and increase the mix of PepsiCo brands in the
EV/EBITDA (x) 52.6 43.5 34.6
South Africa market.
Major Shareholders (%) • 5 manufacturing plants in South Africa are currently under repair &
Promoters 63 maintenance. The capacities will be up and running by the time peak
FPIs 26 season starts in September and October.
MFs 2
Margin and debt outlook
BFSI’s 2
• CY23 was an exceptional year. Margin will remain in the 20-22% range
Public & Others 7
on a steady state basis.
Relative Performance
• Debt taken for BevCo acquisition and capex will be repaid by the next
2,000 quarter. Absolute debt is not a concern, focus is to not let debt/EBITDA
1,500 exceed 2x in the near-term and 1x in the medium-term. Debt/equity
1,000 ratio is expected to be ~1x in the near-term and ~0.5x in the medium-
500 term.

0 Water segment
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• The packaged drinking water segment is a huge growth opportunity.

Even though realisations in India are lower, VBL makes a margin of
Varun Beverages 20-21% in the water segment.
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

441
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• In Morocco, Aquafina is growing at 50-60%. The share of Aquafina in the total volumes has increased
from 6% to 30%.
• Focus on sugar: In South Africa and Morocco, ~90% of the total volumes are from the low sugar/no
sugar portfolio. The company is working to increase the mix of low sugar/no sugar portfolio in India too
(currently at 46%).

Key numbers
(Rs mn) CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(CY18-23) (CY23-
25E)

Financials

Sales 51,053 71,296 64,501 88,232 131,731 160,426 198,211 238,812 25.7 22.0

EBITDA 10,066 14,477 12,019 16,546 27,881 36,095 43,574 54,532 29.1 22.9

PAT 2,999 4,722 4,105 7,461 15,501 21,018 24,886 33,517 47.6 26.3

Margin (%)

Gross margin 56.0 54.8 57.1 54.3 52.5 53.8 53.5 54.0 – –

EBITDA margin 19.7 20.3 18.6 18.8 21.2 22.5 22.0 22.8 – –

PAT margin 5.9 6.6 6.4 8.5 11.8 13.1 12.6 14.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 – –

EPS (Rs) 2.3 3.6 3.2 5.7 11.9 16.2 19.2 25.8 – –

BV (Rs) 15.4 25.6 27.1 31.4 39.3 53.4 67.9 83.7 – –

RoCE (Rs) 13.6 16.3 9.8 15.5 25.0 26.6 26.2 31.2 – –

RoA (Rs) 11.4 13.9 8.4 13.2 20.8 22.4 22.6 27.1 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 15.9 17.7 12.0 19.6 33.8 34.9 31.6 34.0 – –

Net profit margin 5.9 6.6 6.4 8.5 11.8 13.1 12.6 14.0 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Varun Beverages - 1QCY24 Result Update - 13 May 24.pdf

442
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Vimta Labs

Price (Rs) 475
Pharma and food segment remains key growth drivers
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VIML.BO
• It was a subdued year for Vimta Labs in FY24. Despite a market
Bloomberg code VL IN
slowdown due to economic factors, the TIC industry (testing,
Market cap. (US$ mn) 126 inspection and certification) remains well positioned for future
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.4 growth, and to address the rising demand within the TIC space,
Issued shares (mn) 22 company is accelerating the completion of their new life sciences
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M expansion project at Genome Valley campus in Hyderabad –
invested around Rs 370 mn in the project.
Absolute (11) (7) 18
Relative (11) (7) 0 • The company believes FY25 to be a year of investment in infrastructure,
as well as building new partnerships. In FY24, Vimta initiated long-
Valuation Ratios
term partnerships with global pharmaceutical and animal health
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 companies.
Adj. EPS (Rs) 18.8 21.8 18.7 • As they build network and relationships, the company is also
Growth 70.6 15.8 (14.3) expanding its business with recent foray into clinical trials, which is
expected to be a significant growth driver in the future. The company
PER 21.5 21.8 25.4
won their first contract for trials in 3QFY24.
Price/Book 3.8 3.7 3.3
• The company started off with major focus on electronic segment, but
Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 later shifted base to food and pharma segment, as now around 60%
EV/Sales 3.4 3.4 3.4 contribution comes from pharma, 15-20% from diagnostic segment,
while ~15% from food segment and the balance from others.
EV/EBITDA 11.8 11.3 12.3
• Vimta has a network of 16 laboratories and 6 clinical diagnostic
Major Shareholders (%)
patient service centres in India, including food testing and clinical
Promoters 37 diagnostics.
FPIs 5
• Food testing, their second largest segment, holds significant
MFs 1
potential as government imposes increased focus on food safety.
Public & Others 56
They have set up a national food laboratory (NFL) located at JNPT,
Relative Performance Mumbai, which is a PPP established in collaboration with FSSAI. This
650 lab has successfully completed its second year of operation and is
600
550 expected to showcase improved volumes in FY25.
500
450 • The company guides to achieve their revenue goal of Rs 5 bn by
400
350
FY25-26. On the balance sheet side, it continues to remain net debt
300 free with cash balance of Rs 2.5 bn.
250
• The company aims to achieve a 31% EBITDA margin, positioning itself
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

as one of the few high-margin players. An uptick in the diagnostics

Vimta Labs business is anticipated as they aim to surpass Rs 1 bn in revenues in
Sensex (rebased) FY25.

Rohit Bhat Julie Mehta

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com julie.mehta@bksec.com

443
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 2,126 1,807 2,107 2,783 3,182 3,183 8.4

EBITDA 575 300 530 791 949 868 8.6
PAT 255 68 214 422 481 410 10.0
Margin (%)

Gross margin 72.5 70.3 71.0 71.5 76.8 76.1 –

EBITDA margin 27.1 16.6 25.1 28.4 29.8 27.3 –

PAT margin 12.0 3.7 10.2 15.2 15.1 12.9 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 11.5 3.1 9.7 18.7 21.8 18.2 9.8

BV (Rs) 77.6 78.2 87.9 105.8 127.3 0.0 (100.0)
RoCE (%) 19.5 5.6 13.6 22.8 23.5 16.4 –

RoA (%) 10.8 2.8 8.2 14.5 14.4 10.8 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 15.6 4.0 11.7 19.3 18.7 12.8 –

Net profit margin 12.0 3.7 10.2 15.2 15.1 12.9 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Vinati Organics

Price (Rs) 1,740
De-stocking seems to be largely over
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VNTI.BO
• Vinanti Organics (VO) expects to clock revenue CAGR of ~20% over the
Bloomberg code VO IN
next three years mainly driven by the new products as well as some
Market cap. (US$ mn) 2,161 existing products with operating margins to be at ~26%.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.9 • The company also expects a healthy 20-30% volume growth for ATBS
Issued shares (mn) 104 in FY25.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Management expects Rs 10.0 bn sales from butyl phenols and and
Absolute 6 4 (4) anti-oxidants combined.
Relative 6 4 (23) • VO has planned a Rs 5.5 bn capex for FY25 with new products such as
Valuation Ratios Anisole, 4-MAP, TAA, and PTAP are expected to contribute to revenues
in 2HFY25.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Similar to ATBS, VO will continue to use chemistries and technologies
EPS (Rs) 33.7 40.8 31.2
to achieve cost leadership in other products as well.
+/- (%) 28.8 20.9 (23.6)
• Management sees that de-stocking for their products is largely over
PER (x) 51.5 42.6 55.8 and going forward volume recovery is on the cards.
Price/Book (x) 9.8 8.1 7.3 • The management said that their presence in the Anti-oxidants
market is well established and will be able to achieve sales of Rs 7.0
EV/Sales (x) 11.1 8.5 9.5
bn at peak utilisations.
EV/EBITDA (x) 41.2 31.0 38.3
• Butyl Phenols from hereon would incrementally find applications in
Major Shareholders (%) Anti-oxidants and will be consumed internally and hence growth will
Promoters 74 be limited.
FPIs 5
MFs 7
Public & Others 13

Relative Performance
3,200

2,700

2,200

1,700

1,200
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Vinati Organics
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

445
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)

Financials

Sales 11,279 10,289 9,543 16,155 20,727 19,000 11.0

EBITDA 4,246 4,139 3,474 4,343 5,712 4,697 2.0

PAT 2,827 3,338 2,642 3,468 4,192 3,230 2.7

Margin (%)

Gross margin 48.0 58.6 59.1 53.6 45.4 44.1 –

EBITDA margin 37.6 40.2 36.4 26.9 27.6 24.7 –

PAT margin 25.1 32.4 27.7 21.5 20.2 17.0 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) –

EPS (Rs) 27.5 32.2 25.5 33.7 40.8 31.2 2.7

BV (Rs) 102.3 123.3 148.7 177.9 215.3 237.5 18.3

RoCE (%) 45.6 62.9 22.1 25.2 26.2 17.5 –

RoA (%) 25.6 59.0 21.1 23.5 24.2 16.1 –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 30.6 52.2 18.7 20.6 20.7 13.8 –

Net profit margin 25.1 32.4 27.7 21.5 20.2 17.0 –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 –

Leverage factor (x) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 –

446
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data VIP Industries

Price (Rs) 487
In transition phase, growth and margin recovery key monitorables
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VIPI.BO
Industry trends and growth
Bloomberg code VIP IN
• The company aims to outpace industry growth (12%) by 2-3%.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 828
• Currently, 48% of the luggage market remains unorganised.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.5
• Before Covid-19, 70% of sales came from soft luggage (SL); now, 80%
Issued shares (mn) 142
comes from hard luggage (HL), with SL accounting for 20%.
Target price (Rs) 570
• The company has launched 42 new product ranges in the past two
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
months and increased prices across brands. For Carlton, the highest
Absolute (11) (12) (20) selling price has increased from Rs 10,000 to Rs 18,000, and for VIP, from
Relative (12) (12) (38) Rs 6,500 to Rs 8,000.
Valuation Ratios • The new lightweight range of products is performing exceptionally
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25 FY26 well.

EPS 2.0 8.4 13.9 Inventory liquidation

• The company has high inventory levels, which have led to increased
+/- (84.6) 316.9 66.4
debt. The inventory stands at Rs 9 bn, with Rs 3 bn in SL.
PER 242.1 58.1 34.9
• There are about 8 lakh pieces of SL in inventory, while the natural
PBV 10.2 9.2 8.0 demand is around 1 lakh pieces. To address this, the company is
Div/Yield 0.4 0.7 1.1 offering a 15-20% discount to liquidate the inventory, selling both online
and offline and aims to clear it within four months.
EV/Sales 3.3 2.8 2.4
• The company aims to reduce its inventory days by 50% from FY24
EV/EBITDA 38.2 23.4 16.6
levels by the end of FY25.
Major Shareholders (%)
Margin guidance
Promoters 52
• The company is targeting EBITDA margins of 15% in FY24 (more
FPIs 8
improvement from second half), 18% in FY26, and 20% within the next
MFs 9
three-four years.
BFSI’s 3
Public & Others 27 • Advertising spending is around 6-7% and will remain at this level.
Channel insights
Relative Performance
• Currently, 90% of the company’s e-commerce business is under the
1,000
900 Aristocrat brand, while 60% of general trade (GT) sales come from the
800 VIP and Skybags brands.
700
• E-commerce has become a substantial market, accounting for 27-
600
500 30% of overall luggage sales in the industry. E-commerce sales for the
400 company are expected to stabilise at 27-30%, up from the current 20%.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Bangladesh facility
• Bangladesh facility is operating at 40% capacity utilisation due to
VIP Industries
Sensex (rebased) lower demand for SL and high inventory levels.

Jigar Jani Purva Zanwar

Research Analyst Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com purva.zanwar@bksec.com

447
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

• To reduce costs, the company has laid off workers. Previously, it operated with 8,000 workers in double
shifts; now, it operates with 4,000 workers in a single shift. This is expected to save Rs 360 mn annually.
Capex
• The company is focusing on a distributed manufacturing model for HL and does not want to invest heavily
in building capacities upfront due to rapidly changing customer preferences.
• It has established tight contracts with manufacturers and is currently partnering with three players in
different geographies, which also helps reduce freight costs.
• The company provides the design of moulds used in manufacturing.
Caprese and backpacks
• Caprese: To increase brand presence, the company plans to open 25 new kiosks in large malls and has
signed Kiara Advani as the brand ambassador.
• Backpacks: This area offers significant growth potential. Currently, only 23% of VIP distributors carry
backpacks. The company is exploring tie-ups with stationery shops to leverage their distribution networks
instead of building its own. It only has 1-1.5% share in the backpack market.
Others
• Currently, 7% of products are sourced from China, which may increase to a maximum of 10-12%. Low
volume and high value products are sourced from China.
• Promoter commitment is present but not involved in day-to-day operations. They may consider selling
the business in the next 3-5 years as the business starts performing well.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)
Financials
Sales 17,808 17,160 6,172 12,869 20,787 22,422 25,363 28,771 4.7 13.3
EBITDA 2,247 2,913 (653) 1,444 3,138 1,936 3,058 4,238 (2.9) 48.0
PAT 1,453 1,602 (975) 669 1,846 285 1,189 1,978 (27.8) 163.4
Margin (%)
Gross margin 49.3 53.1 40.8 50.0 51.1 52.6 52.0 53.5 – –

EBITDA margin 12.6 17.0 (10.6) 11.2 15.1 8.6 12.0 14.7 – –

PAT margin 8.1 9.3 (15.8) 5.2 8.9 1.3 4.7 6.9 – –
Ratio (x)
Net D/E 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 10.3 11.3 (6.9) 4.7 13.0 2.0 8.4 13.9 (27.9) 163.4
BV (Rs) 41.1 43.2 36.6 39.6 45.3 47.8 52.8 61.1 3.0 13.2
RoCE (%) 36.6 28.9 (11.3) 13.2 28.5 8.5 14.9 23.4 – –

RoA (%) 23.5 19.0 (8.1) 9.5 19.4 6.1 10.6 16.0 – –
DuPont analysis (%)
RoE 27.1 26.9 (17.3) 12.4 30.7 4.3 16.7 24.5 – –

Net profit margin 8.1 9.3 (15.8) 5.2 8.9 1.3 4.7 6.9 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.9 1.5 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.4 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/VIP Industries - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May 24.pdf

448
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Voltas

Price (Rs) 1,360
Strong summer demand, on track to gain back market share
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code VOLT.BO
• UCP: Consistent demand for cooling products amid soaring
Bloomberg code VOLT IN
temperatures and frequent heat waves along with strong distribution
Market cap. (US$ mn) 5,392 network and product portfolio is auguring well for the company in
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 28.3 terms of growth.
Issued shares (mn) 331 • Strong summer demand momentum continued during the month
Target price (Rs) 1,563 of April and May as the industry and Voltas continued to witness
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M traction in RACs due to continuing heatwaves, short supply and rising

Absolute (8) 23 66 temperatures. It believes it can grow higher than industry in 1QFY25.

Relative (8) 22 47 • There is robust demand trend in the near-term straining the industry’s
supply capacity. Voltas (VOLT) could have sold at least 20% more had
Valuation Ratios
the stock been beefed up.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The company plans to expand its own RAC capacity from 2.0 mn units
EPS (Rs) 7.6 27.5 35.2 to 3.0-3.5 mn units in the next couple of years in anticipation of volume
+/- (%) (33) 260 28 growth.

PER (x) 178.9 49.5 38.6 • However, the margin in this segment remains in high single-digit
as amid highly competitive pressure in RAC as well as commercial
PBV (x) 7.7 6.9 6.1
AC business especially in the environment of rising input costs.
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 Commercial refrigeration business continues to face weak demand.
EV/Sales (x) 3.6 2.7 2.3 • YTD market share in RAC business has failed to improve since past few
EV/EBITDA (x) 93.6 36.3 28.7 quarters despite high volume growth which is believed to be due to
lag in primary and secondary sales. Expect improvement in 1QFY25 as
Major Shareholders (%)
higher secondary pick-up gets reflected in the market share.
Promoters 30
• It will maintain high single-digit.
FPIs 15
MFs 24 • EMP: On projects business, domestic business remains healthy with
BFSI’s 16 strong execution and improved profitability, but international business
Public & Others 14 continues to reel under headwinds in Qatar business.
• The company has made provisions for the eight consecutive quarters
Relative Performance
(~Rs 7.7 bn) and believes to be at fag end of it as it hopes to turn
1,800
1,600
profitable in FY25.
1,400 • However, the company indicated that it is at fag end of provisioning
1,200
and the provisions in 4QFY24 was due to unlawful encashment of
1,000
800 guarantees and is confident of write-backs in the near future as it
600 recovers its dues from the main clients.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• To avoid repeating such conflicts and provisioning in the future, the

company has taken various steps to mitigate risks like cautious
Voltas
Sensex (rebased)
order selection and altering the terms of agreement and replacing

Kunal Sheth Archit Shah

Research Analyst Research Analyst
kunal.sheth@bksec.com archit.shah@bksec.com

449
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

unconditional guarantees with terms and conditions, etc. It has also started deep evaluation of the
goodwill of main contractor before accepting the project.
• It has guided for 4.5-5% margins in projects business annually with more focus on domestic business.
• Volt-Beko: The Volt-Beko JV has crossed sale of 5 mn units since inception. The home appliances industry
in India has witnessed a healthy growth fuelled by a surge in demand for both large and small appliances.
• VOLT is leveraging Arceliks technical expertise and its own strong brand presence to expand its footprints
in Indian households.
• Volt-Beko is expected to break-even on EBITDA level in FY25 with overall market share of 10%. It has 12,500
channel partners in this business for refrigeration and washing machines.
• Owing to strong summer led growth in RAC and expectations of turnaround in projects business, we
upgrade our earnings estimate by 16.6%/9% for FY25/26E, respectively. Hence, our revised target price is
higher at Rs 1,563 (earlier Rs 1408)

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-23) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 71,241 76,272 74,566 78,411 93,994 124,074 149,620 177,585 7.2 19.6
EBITDA 6,117 6,867 6,414 6,816 5,724 4,746 10,477 14,119 (1.6) 72.5
PAT 5,079 5,682 5,251 5,041 3,788 2,520 7,787 10,700 (7.1) 106.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 26.1 27.2 25.2 24.8 21.5 20.9 24.6 24.7 – –

EBITDA margin (%) 8.6 9.0 8.5 8.6 6.0 3.8 7.0 7.9 – –

PAT margin 7.1 7.4 7.0 6.4 4.0 2.0 5.2 6.0 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) – –

EPS (Rs) 15.4 17.2 15.9 15.2 11.5 7.6 23.5 32.3 (7.1) 106.1
BV (Rs) 124.2 129.4 150.9 166.3 164.8 176.0 192.5 217.9 7.3 11.3
RoCE (%) 17.7 19.3 15.9 14.6 11.4 10.4 17.9 21.3 – –

RoA (%) 10.4 11.3 9.5 9.1 7.0 6.1 9.7 11.1 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 12.7 13.5 11.3 9.6 6.9 4.5 12.8 15.8 – –

Net profit margin 7.1 7.4 7.0 6.4 4.0 2.0 5.2 6.0 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Voltas - 4QFY24 Result Update - 09 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data VST Tillers Tractors

Price (Rs) 3,277
New launches and expanding distribution network to drive
BSE Sensex 73,961 overall growth
Reuters code VST.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code VSTT IN • Outlook: Management has kept its previous revenue guidance on
Market cap. (US$ mn) 339 achieving Rs 30 bn unchanged in FY26. Tillers and Tractors business is
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.6 expected to grow at 20%/15% in FY25. Small farm equipment business
Issued shares (mn) 9 is projected to grow at 20% in FY25.

Target price (Rs) 3,655 • Compact tractor segment: Industry wise, less than 30HP market size

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M is 90k units, with VST holding a 3% market share. The compact tractor
market is projected to grow by 15-20% in FY25, with plans to enter the
Absolute (11) (0) 17
US, Nordic countries, and South America.
Relative (11) (0) (1)
• New product launches: Management has guided for power weeder
Valuation Ratios
in 3QFY25 followed by an electric weeder launch in 1QFY26.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• VST Zetor tractors: The company has introduced three new models
EPS (Rs) 140.2 141.2 166.1 of VST Zetor in the higher HP segment (41-50 HP). Management is
+/- (%) 31.1 0.8 17.6 targeting VST Zetor volumes to reach 5,000 units in the next two years
and 8,000 units in the following three years.
PER (x) 24.0 23.8 20.2
• Revenue breakdown for FY26: Tractor business is expected to grow
PBV (x) 3.2 2.9 2.6
faster in the US and European market. Small farm equipment (SMF) will
Div./Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.2 comprise 50% of the business, tractors at 40%, and distribution at 10%.
EV/Sales (x) 2.6 2.1 1.8 Exports will constitute 20% of the overall business.
• International business: Management plans to launch 32-35 HP
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.9 15.5 13.0
tractors in Europe with Stage 5 compliance by Q3 FY25. Loaders will
Major Shareholders (%)
be launched in the US market, with competitive pricing aimed at
Promoters 56 achieving market share gains from peers.
FPIs 2
• Kobashi JV: The company is set to finalise a joint venture with Kobashi
MFs 17
within the next one-two months, with blade manufacturing slated to
Public & Others 26
commence by FY26.
Relative Performance
• Wholly owned subsidiary: VST Americas Inc., a wholly owned
4,300 subsidiary, has been established in the US to serve the tractor and FMS
3,800 market. Additionally, VST Americas Inc. has formed a Limited Liability
3,300
Company (“LLC”) named VST FIELDTRAC LLC (stepdown subsidiary) in
2,800
the United States.
2,300
1,800
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

VST Tillers Tractors

Sensex (rebased)

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 15,899 15,628 16,409 18,405 27,524 28,554 32,275 37,116 12.4 14.0

EBITDA 2,328 2,187 2,367 2,600 3,126 3,210 3,886 4,625 6.6 20.0

PAT 1,338 1,035 1,426 1,732 1,521 1,585 2,073 2,595 3.4 28.0

Margin (%)

Gross margin 42.5 41.4 41.8 41.4 41.3 42.0 42.4 42.1 - -

EBITDA margin 14.6 14.0 14.4 14.1 11.4 11.2 12.0 12.5 - -

PAT margin 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.8 5.5 5.5 6.4 7.0 - -

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 - -

EPS (Rs) 9.6 9.4 10.2 11.7 11.0 11.5 15.0 18.8 3.7 28.0

BV (Rs) 55.4 61.0 70.8 78.3 88.5 97.0 108.7 124.0 11.8 13.1

RoCE (%) 21.4 15.3 16.1 16.5 14.6 12.7 15.1 17.0 - -

RoA (%) 16.7 12.1 13.0 13.8 12.3 10.5 12.3 13.7 - -

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 18.7 16.1 15.5 15.6 13.2 12.3 14.6 16.1 - -

Net profit margin 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.8 5.5 5.5 6.4 7.0 - -

Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 - -

Leverage factor (x) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 - -

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/VST Tillers Tractors - 4QFY24 Result Update - 10 May 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Welspun Corp

Price (Rs) 549
Entry into new verticals...
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code WGSR.BO
• Welspun Corp’s (WLCO) US order book is 80k tonnes. There are 2-3 more
Bloomberg code WLCO IN
pipelines coming in Permean basin are expected to be awarded in
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,722 1QFY25 and 3QFY25. WLCO is pursuing these pipelines.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.0 • EPIC has recorded a PAT of Rs 6.0 bn for FY24. Implied EBITDA/tonne for
Issued shares (mn) 262 Saudi was US$ 250/tonne.
Target price (Rs) 755 • WLCO expects to touch 70-80% utilisations in DI and TMT in FY25.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • WLCO guided capex for FY25 to be Rs 15.0-20.0 bn. Rs 3.0 bn DI Indian
Absolute (3) 8 117 plant capex will be entirely spent in FY25. Rs 5.0 bn Saudi capex and Rs
Relative (3) 7 99 23.0 bn Sintex capex will be spread over FY25 and FY26.

Valuation Ratios • The company is strategically covered to the extent of 85% with respect
to RM.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
• The company believes that as long as crude oil stays above US$ 45,
EPS (Rs.) 44.4 44.1 50.8
drilling activities will keep on going.
Change (%) 462.0 (0.7) 15.2
• In water segment, margins has improved from Rs 3,000/tonne to Rs
PER (x) 12.3 12.4 10.8 5,000/tonne due to strong government focus in water segment.
PBV (x) 2.6 2.2 1.9 • In DI pipes, there is clear visibility of orders for the next 2.5-3 years. DI

Div./Yield (%) 0.9 1.6 1.8 also has an export potential in Middle East.
• For Sintex, the company expects margins of 13-14% as it’s a branded
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.0 0.9
business. Market size for water storage tank (WST) is Rs 60.0 bn and for
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 9.1 7.7
plastic pipes, it is Rs 550.0 bn. The company plans to quadruple Sintex
Major Shareholders (%) revenue from current Rs 7.0 bn.
Promoters 50
FPIs 11
MFs 6
BFSI’s 11
Public & Others 22

Relative Performance
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Welspun Corp
Sensex (rebased)

Sailesh Raja Radha Agarwalla

Research Analyst Research Analyst
sailesh.raja@bksec.com radharani.agarwalla@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 89,535 99,568 71,526 65,051 97,581 173,396 156,315 168,176 14.1 (1.5)
EBITDA 5,731 11,600 7,951 4,717 4,846 15,614 17,429 20,181 22.2 13.7
PAT 682 6,735 6,410 4,388 2,067 11,616 11,540 13,297 76.3 7.0
Margin (%)

Gross margin 29.9 34.4 33.5 26.9 25.7 30.2 32.0 33.0 – –

EBITDA margin 6.4 11.6 11.1 7.3 5.0 9.0 11.2 12.0 – –

PAT margin 0.8 6.8 9.0 6.7 2.1 6.7 7.4 7.9 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 – –

EPS (Rs) 2.6 25.7 24.5 16.8 7.9 44.4 44.1 50.8 76.3 7.0
BV (Rs) 106.8 122.9 156.0 169.2 180.8 214.6 250.2 291.1 15.0 16.4
RoCE (%) 9.1 22.0 16.6 11.7 6.3 17.0 18.7 21.7 – –

RoA (%) 5.6 12.9 11.6 9.1 4.1 10.7 12.9 14.8 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 2.4 22.4 17.6 10.3 4.5 22.4 19.0 18.8 – –

Net profit margin 0.8 6.8 9.0 6.7 2.1 6.7 7.4 7.9 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 – –

Leverage factor (x) 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.7 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Westlife Foodworld

Price (Rs) 831
Focus on volumes going forward…
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code WEST.BO
• Zomato versus QSR: Most QSR’s are facing competition from newer
Bloomberg code WESTLIFE IN
restaurant listing on Zomato. However, SSSG of the new stores is also
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,552 weak. Zomato’s growth is backed by empanelment of new stores to its
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.8 network. Westlife plans to combat that by bringing in newer innovations
Issued shares (mn) 156 and high value product combos. It expects better performances from
Target price (Rs) 1,040 QSR’s starting 2H.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • McCafe versus other coffee QSRs: The value proposition of McCafe is

Absolute (2) 11 8 far better than most other coffee players. At the same time, constant
innovation in McCafe including milk shakes adds better proposition.
Relative (2) 11 (11)
The market is too small at this juncture and the company expects
Valuation Ratios
penetration led growth for every player.
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
Overall demand
EPS (Rs) 4.4 5.3 7.9 • The company is taking strategic measures to address the negative
+/- (%) (38.0) 19.9 47.8 perception of McDonald’s not being an Indian brand.

PER (x) 187.1 156.1 105.6 • Given these strategic measures, the SSSG improved sequentially in 4Q
and is seeing continual improvement in 1QFY25 as well.
PBV (x) 22.0 21.2 19.3
Store expansion and Vision 2027
Div./Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.5
• The company has guided to open 40-45 stores annually and reach
EV/Sales (x) 5.4 4.7 4.1 ~580-630 restaurants by FY27E.
EV/EBITDA (x) 35.3 29.9 25.8 • Westlife presently operates 292 Experience of the Future (EOTF) stores,
Major Shareholders (%) which accounts for about 84% of their total restaurant count. By FY27,
the company expects to convert all the existing stores to the EOTF
Promoters 56
FPIs 12
format, except the stores located in food courts.
MFs 20 • The company will focus on opening more Drive-thru format stores
BFSI’s 3 which will lead to significant value unlocking after six years of
Public & Others 9 operation.

Relative Performance Guidance

1,100 • In the medium-term, the company will focus on bringing back volumes
1,000
which will drive overall profitability. The company expects growing
900
800 scale to aid improvement in operating margin.
700
600 • EBITDA margin is expected to be in the range of 18-20% in the medium-
500
400 term.
300
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Westlife Foodworld
Sensex (rebased)

Parin Tanna Tanay Shah Aayush Adukia

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
parin.tanna@bksec.com tanay.shah@bksec.com aayush.adukia@bksec.com

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR(%) CAGR(%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 14,016 15,478 9,860 15,765 22,782 23,918 27,384 31,381 11.3 14.5
EBITDA 1,206 2,140 469 1,892 3,740 3,693 4,340 5,010 25.1 16.5
PAT 403 60 (1,028) (17) 1,116 692 830 1,226 11.4 33.1
Margin (%)

Gross margin 63.9 65.2 64.7 65.4 69.9 70.3 70.4 70.4 – –

EBITDA margin 8.6 13.8 4.8 12.0 16.4 15.4 15.9 16.0 – –

PAT margin 2.9 0.4 (10.4) (0.1) 4.9 2.9 3.0 3.9 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.0) – –

EPS (Rs) 2.6 0.4 (6.6) (0.1) 7.2 4.4 5.3 7.9 – –

BV (Rs) 37.5 37.1 30.9 29.7 36.3 37.8 39.1 43.0 – –

RoCE (Rs) 7.4 7.5 (3.2) 5.4 14.6 11.0 12.4 15.0 – –

RoA (Rs) 5.8 6.4 (2.8) 4.6 12.4 9.4 10.4 12.4 – –

DuPont analysis (%)

RoE 7.2 1.0 (19.4) (0.4) 21.7 12.0 13.8 19.2 – –

Net profit margin 2.9 0.4 (10.4) (0.1) 4.9 2.9 3.0 3.9 – –

Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.7 2.4 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 – –

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/5/Westlife Foodworld - 4QFY24 Result Update - 08 May
24.pdf

456
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Wonderla Holidays

Price (Rs) 850
Expansion plans afoot
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code WOHL.NS
Expansion and capex
Bloomberg code WONH IN
• The company currently has a total of 5 parks (4 commissioned parks
Market cap. (US$ mn) 576
and 1 ongoing project) and plans to build 5 more parks (Gujarat,
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.3 Punjab, Goa, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi). As a result, it will need to raise
Issued shares (mn) 57 over Rs 10 bn. It will be looking at equity or debt or both, depending on
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M requirements before the end of the year.
Absolute (14) (10) 70 • For the Chennai Park, groundwork is done, and the management is
Relative (14) (10) 52 targeting to operationalise the park by 3QFY25.

Valuation Ratios • Indore Park will be similar in size to Orissa. The Noida Park will be larger
and more costly, while Chandigarh’s Park will be smaller.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Most of the expansion will follow this leasing model, although may
EPS (1.7) 26.3 27.9
need to purchase land in some cases.
+/- (81.0)(1,670.3) 6.1
• The company aims to establish parks in cities poised for growth,
PER (502.6) 32.0 30.2 whether tier 1 or tier 2.
PBV 6.0 5.0 4.4 • Construction times are typically 1 to 1.5 years for small parks and 2 to
2.5 years for large parks.
Div/Yield 0.0 0.0 0.3
ARPU and Non-Ticketing Revenue
EV/Sales 36.2 10.5 9.4
• There is a deliberate effort to increase the non-ticketing revenue
EV/EBITDA 219.1 21.3 20.0
portion.
Major Shareholders (%)
• The goal is to shift the revenue mix from 30% to 40% non-ticketing.
Promoters 70
Corporate versus Retail
FPIs 4
• Corporate and group bookings (more than 20 people) account for
MFs 3
35% of footfall at the company level. The company wants group
BFSI’s 1
Public & Others 21
footfalls to be below 35% and is consistently working to increase retail
footfalls
Relative Performance
• Group bookings have a 25% lower ARPU compared to retail visitors.
1,200
1,000 Footfalls
800 • This summer season has been flat due to heat waves. There is not
600
much headroom for growth in footfalls at the existing parks. Footfalls
400
200 can increase by 3-4% over the next 25 years in mature parks.
0
• The company is already investing in new rides for its three mature
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

parks to expand capacity. Last year, Rs 250 mn was spent on

Hyderabad Park, adding 7-8 new attractions. Bangalore is currently
Wonderla Holidays.
Sensex (rebased)
operating at full capacity,

Jigar Jani Purva Zanwar

Research Analyst Research Analyst
jigar.jani@bksec.com purva.zanwar@bksec.com

457
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Bhubaneswar Park
• Bhubaneshwar Park opened on 24 May 2024. The demand in Bhubaneswar has exceeded earlier
expectations, and the ARPU will be different than anticipated.
• In the first full year, the company expects footfall to be around 0.7 mn which can increase to 1.2 mn, similar
to Hyderabad Park.
Capacity, breakeven and payback period
• Hyderabad Park achieved EBITDA breakeven with 500,000 visitors, and the same is expected for the new
parks, which will break even at half of their full capacity.
• The maximum capacity for all parks is 12,000 visitors per day.
• In Chennai, the ARPU will be significantly higher than in Bengaluru. Its maximum capacity is 12,000 visitors
per day. The payback period for Chennai is expected to be six-seven years.
• The payback period for Orissa is expected to be four-five years.
Resorts
• The company is expanding in Bengaluru by adding 40 rooms.
• Next year, will consider Hyderabad for resort development. In Goa, it will begin with a resort and park
combination.
• Opening a resort in Indore and Chennai doesn’t seem viable at the moment.
• Theme parks account for the majority (80%) of occupancy, with the remaining 20% being corporate
bookings. The focus is on increasing non-theme park occupancy.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 2,844 2,728 386 1,286 4,292 4,830 11.2

EBITDA 1,167 1,061 (284) 213 2,115 2,272 14.3
PAT 554 459 (499) (95) 1,489 1,580 23.3
Margin (%)

Gross margin 95.4 95.2 93.5 94.9 94.7 94.3 –

EBITDA margin 41.0 38.9 (73.4) 16.5 49.3 47.0 –
PAT margin 18.6 17.4 (133.0) (8.3) 33.5 32.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) –

EPS (Rs) 9.8 8.1 (8.8) (1.7) 26.3 27.9 23.3
BV (Rs) 144.8 152.0 143.2 141.6 167.9 193.5 6.0
RoCE (%) 9.7 8.1 (7.2) (1.4) 20.9 19.1 –
RoA (%) 8.9 7.6 (7.0) (1.4) 20.1 18.3 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 7.0 5.5 (6.0) (1.2) 17.0 15.5 –

Net profit margin 19.5 16.8 (129.3) (7.4) 34.7 32.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 –
Leverage factor (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Yasho Industries

Price (Rs) 1,772
Pakhajan plant to offer further growth potential
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code YASO.BO
• Management anticipates topline of Rs 9-9.5 bn and Rs 12-13 bn in
Bloomberg code YASHO IN
FY25 and FY26, respectively, with margins in the range of 19-20%.
Market cap. (US$ mn) 242
• The new 20,000 MT capacity commissioned at Pakhajan will start
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.7 contributing to revenues in FY25 (40-45% utilisation in FY25) but full
Issued shares (mn) 11 benefits to be seen in FY26.
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • Yasho Industries has no intention to raise more debt and targets to
Absolute (7) (15) 4 bring down Debt/EBITDA to 3x in FY25.
Relative (8) (15) (14) • The company has already received soft commitments from
Valuation Ratios customers for rubber chemicals. They intend to start business with
customers having shorter approval period.
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
• Management is of the thought that they are equipped with better
EPS (Rs) 45.9 59.5 50.8
process efficiency and technology to compete with Chinese players
+/- (%) 132.8 29.8 (14.6) and fight them on price and quality.
PER (x) 38.9 29.9 35.1 • Yasho aims to maintain a market mix of 60% global and 40% domestic.
Price/Book (x) 11.7 8.6 6.9 • The company has shifted their focus to the industrial business as the
consumer vertical remains a low margin business for them.
EV/Sales (x) 23.6 20.4 25.9
• Top 5/10 clients contribute to about 30-35/45% of total revenue.
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.6 20.4 25.9

Major Shareholders (%)

Promoters 72
FPIs 1
Public & Others 27

Relative Performance
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

Yasho Industries
Sensex (rebased)

Archit Joshi Disha Arora Manav Kapasi

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
archit.joshi@bksec.com disha.arora@bksec.com manav.kapasi@bksec.com

459
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 3,401 2,971 3,594 6,127 6,716 5,936 – 0 11.8 (100.0)

EBITDA 367 397 490 930 1,150 998 0 0 22.1 (100.0)

PAT 128 120 215 523 679 579 0 0 35.3 (100.0)

Margin (%)

Gross margin 32.1 36.5 35.0 36.5 38.2 36.0 – NA – –

EBITDA margin 10.8 13.4 13.6 15.2 17.1 16.8 – NA – –

PAT margin 3.8 4.0 6.0 8.5 10.1 9.8 – NA – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.9 NA NA – –

EPS (Rs) 11.7 11.0 19.7 45.9 59.5 50.8 0.0 0.0 34.1 (100.0)

BV (Rs) 42.0 53.1 72.4 151.7 206.6 258.5 0.0 0.0 43.8 (100.0)

RoCE (%) 33.5 15.5 20.0 28.0 22.3 12.1 0.0 0.0 – –

RoA (%) 26.1 12.3 16.1 21.5 18.7 11.2 0.0 0.0 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 55.8 23.1 31.4 41.5 33.0 21.8 0.0 0.0 – –

Net profit margin 3.8 4.0 6.0 8.5 10.1 9.8 – NA – –

Asset turnover (x) 2.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 – NA – –

Leverage factor (x) 5.5 5.1 4.3 3.1 2.8 3.1 NA NA – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Yatra Online

Price (Rs) 130
Well placed in the online travel segment
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code 0.0
• Domestic air passenger traffic has shown stellar growth as India
Bloomberg code YATRA IN
continues to remain the fastest-growing air market globally. The
Market cap. (US$ mn) 244 company expects the Indian Travel market to grow 1.5-2x of India’s
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 1.0 GDP growth in line with historical trends. 4QFY24 was soft owing
Issued shares (mn) 157 to supply side constraints, as India’s largest airline took out some
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M capacity for engine repair related issues. The same is expected to
persist for the next couple of quarters.
Absolute (13) (23) 0
Relative (13) (23) (18) • The numbers have to be seen in context of the one-off in the base
quarter due to GDS accrual. Cost improvements can continue.
Valuation Ratios
• One-stop solution from approvals to GST management is the key
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
selling point for larger corporates. Yatra believes this will enable their
EPS (Rs) (2.0) 0.4 (0.3) MOAT to remain.
PER (x) (65.9) 308.3 NA • Take rate expansion in Air travel segment from current levels is

PBV (x) 20.1 12.0 2.7 challenging due to capacity constraints from airlines. Current
margins are at healthy levels and is expected to continue in similar
EV/Sales (x) 10.0 5.6 4.6
ranges.
EV/EBITDA (x) (224.2) 58.3 132.8
• Yatra has chosen a strategy of balancing their customer and
Major Shareholders (%) corporate business while placing an emphasis on the corporate
Promoters 64 business, which is more profitable. This has led to a favourable profit
FPIs 5 mix for the company. Corporate segment remains a key growth
MFs 20 engine, and Yatra has already established dominance in this vertical.
BFSI’s 4 Corporate travel segment margins are close to 20% while that for
Public & Others 6 retail business is in the range of mid-to-high single digits which
keeps varying.
Relative Performance
• The company continues to focus on enhancing the user experience.
190
180 In a bid to improve the same, the company launched a new UI and
170
160
improved their domestic flight search platform. The underlying goal
150 here is to upsell ancillary products which offer additional value and
140
130
convenience to travellers.
120 • The company has announced the launch of Expense Management
Oct-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

tool recently. The initial approach here will be to cross-sell it to their

existing customers, and in parallel, offer the product as a bundled
Yatra Online
solution along with existing offerings.
Sensex (rebased)
• Religious travel and tourism are one of the biggest segments in India
with popular religious centres attracting annual tourist traffic in the
range of 10-30 mn despite the existing infrastructure bottlenecks.

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

461
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 8,447 6,733 1,255 1,981 3,802 4,223 (12.9)

EBITDA (1,695) (54) (224) (89) 367 147 NA
PAT (2,127) (674) (1,187) (308) 66 (51) NA
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin (20.1) (0.8) (17.9) (4.5) 9.6 3.5 –

PAT margin (25.2) (10.0) (94.6) (15.6) 1.7 (1.2) –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.2) (0.1) (1.1) (0.4) 0.6 (0.1) –

EPS (Rs) (13.6) (4.3) (7.6) (2.0) 0.4 (0.3) –
BV (Rs) 15.1 13.5 7.9 6.4 10.8 47.6 –
RoCE (%) (106.9) (12.4) (17.7) (7.7) 13.7 3.6 –
RoA (%) (32.2) (4.5) (7.9) (2.9) 5.8 2.2 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (179.2) (30.0) (70.7) (27.5) 4.9 (1.1) –

Net profit margin (25.2) (10.0) (94.6) (15.6) 1.7 (1.2) –
Asset turnover (x) 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 –
Leverage factor (x) 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.5 2.1 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Yes Bank

Price (Rs) 23
Bank refocuses credit composition with emphasis on retail,
BSE Sensex 73,961 SMEs and higher yields
Reuters code YESB.BO Key highlights
Bloomberg code YES IN Changes in credit composition
Market cap. (US$ mn) 8,633 • The bank has undergone quite a lot of changes in credit composition.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 111.7 The bank has reduced large corporate composition. The bank has
Issued shares (mn) 31,330 let go some of the high-yielding corporate loans also to improve
Target price (Rs) 15 concentration risk and asset quality.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M • The bank has had quite a lot of new passenger vehicle growth in the
Absolute (12) (6) 42 last one year. Change in retail loans composition in favour of used PV
and CV leading to a rise in higher disbursement yields. The bank is
Relative (12) (6) 24
focusing on its own distribution model rather than DSA model.
Valuation Ratios
• Credit card loan book is expected to grow at the faster pace than the
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E
overall credit growth. And MFI (Inclusive Banking) would also grow at
Adj. EPS (Rs) 0.4 0.3 0.6 a faster pace. The bank has scope to accelerate credit card, but the
BVPS (Rs) 14.3 14.7 15.2 bank is going ahead cautiously. CC (2% of loans) is about to break-
even. The bank is doing Joint Ventures in CC business but is not going
Adj. Book 14.0 14.2 14.7
NAV/share (Rs) very aggressively on this.
• Mid and small corporate and SME would grow faster than retail credit.
PER (x) 53.3 69.3 41.8
• The focus is on enhancing credit yield.
Price/Book (x) 1.6 1.6 1.5
• There’s loan mispricing in SME and mid-corporate lending segments.
Price/Adj. book (x) 1.7 1.6 1.6
Asset quality
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
• Used PV/CV could lead to a marginal rise in credit cost but the credit
Major Shareholders (%) yield in the segment would be sufficient enough to take care of credit
FPIs 22 risk provision.
BFSI’s 42 Sufficient core capital
Public & Others 36
• The bank has CET I at 13.2%. The capital is sufficient to support credit
Relative Performance growth for 12-18 period.
35 • The bank would look for fresh equity capital in end-FY26 or in FY27.
30
PSL compliance and purchases of PSLC and RIDF
25
• RIDF at ~11% (as a % to asset) is at its peak, it’ll not drag NIM any further.
20
15
The majority of positive impact on NIM due to lower RIDF would be
10 reflected in two-three years.
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

• In the absence of RIDF, NIM would have expanded by 70 bps.

• In the PSL, small & marginal farmers (SMF) category is the main area
Yes Bank
of concern.
Sensex (rebased)
• Growth in MFI loans would lead to lower RIDF requirements.

Rakesh Kumar Ronak Daga Jenil Rathod

Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
rakesh.kumar@bksec.com ronak.daga@bksec.com jenil.rathod@bksec.com

463
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Operating expense and Cost-to-Income ratio progression

• The bank’s management expects 10% improvement in C-I ratio in two-three years.
• The bank is spending ~11-12% on the digital platform.
• Cost-asset ratio could remain in the same range of ~270 bps.
• In the next three years, C-I ratio would come down by 10% to 60%.
Return ratio progression
• The bank would demonstrate on better RoA also going ahead.
• The bank is in the process of building assets to improve RoA. Large PVBs already have such legacy assets.
• Apart from the assets, the bank is also trying to build a liability franchise.
• The bank’s SA rates have not increased in the last one year.

Key numbers
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR CAGR
(19-24) (24-26E)
Income Statement (Rs mn)
Net Interest Income 98,078 68,047 74,286 64,979 79,176 80,946 91,842 120,496 (3.8) 22.0
Operating Expense 62,643 67,292 57,920 68,444 86,615 98,227 110,061 123,918 9.4 12.3
Operating Profit 81,337 119,320 46,483 29,159 31,828 33,863 41,242 64,974 (16.1) 38.5
PAT 17,190 (164,185) (34,622) 10,662 7,174 12,511 11,256 20,115 (6.2) 26.8
Balance Sheet (Rs mn)
Shareholder's Fund 269,042 217,263 331,963 337,419 407,425 421,454 423,200 443,315 9.4 2.6
Advances 2,414,996 1,714,433 1,668,930 1,810,520 2,032,694 2,277,995 2,636,335 3,051,165 (1.2) 15.7
Deposits 2,276,102 1,053,639 1,629,466 1,971,917 2,175,019 2,663,722 3,118,856 3,629,389 3.2 16.7
Total Assets 3,808,262 2,578,269 2,735,428 3,182,202 3,547,861 4,054,930 4,653,140 5,284,248 1.3 14.2
Per share Data (Rs)
EPS 7 (56) (2) 0 0 0 0 1 (43.3) 26.9
BV 116 17 13 13 14 14 15 15 (34.2) 3.7
ABV 104 12 10 11 13 14 14 15 (33.0) 3.3
Return Ratios (%)
ROA 0.5 (5.1) (1.3) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
ROE 6.5 (67.5) (12.6) 3.2 2.0 3.1 2.7 4.6
Margins (%)
NIMs 3.0 2.3 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9
Asset Quality (%)
GNPA 3.2 16.8 15.4 13.9 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.1
NNPA 1.9 5.0 5.9 4.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7
PCR 43.1 73.8 65.7 70.7 62.3 66.6 67.1 68.3
Capitalisation Ratios (%)
Tier I cap. adequacy 11.3 6.5 11.3 11.6 13.3 12.2 11.2 10.4
Total cap. 16.5 12.9 17.5 17.4 17.9 16.9 15.1 14.0
adequacy

Reference report
http://zzz.bksec.com/Reportsupload/2024/4/Yes Bank - 4QFY24 Result Update - 29 Apr 24.pdf

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services

Price (Rs) 271
Simplifying and streamlining spend management
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ZAGG.BO
• Zaggle, with its 3 solutions of SAVE, PROPEL and ZOYER wishes to close
Bloomberg code ZAGGLE IN
the loop for both enterprises and customers as regards to employee
Market cap. (US$ mn) 398 spends, its management and accounting and associated rewards.
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 6.4 This is further integrated with brand partners.
Issued shares (mn) 122 • Zaggle aims to focus entirely on revenue growth in FY25 with a
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M guidance of 45-50% YoY growth potential. Margins are expected to
Absolute (10) (24) 0 remain stable. Market share gains, aided by new contracts signed in

Relative (10) (24) (18) 4QFY24, is the predominant focus for the management aid
• Business environment for B2B SaaS Spend Management products
Valuation Ratios
seem favorable owing to Government’s digitisation push coupled
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24
with companies willing to pay higher SaaS fees. This, in addition to
EPS (Rs) 3.4 1.9 3.6 simplifying enterprise solutions for account management, data driven
+/- (%) 345.8 (45.4) 92.5 analytics and employee rewards at no extra cost to the employer are
the broad engines for growth.
PER (x) 79.4 145.3 75.5
• The management is keen on taking advantage of the cross-selling and
PBV (x) (933.8) 68.1 5.8
up-selling opportunities to its clients as only 20% of them currently use
EV/Sales (x) 9.1 6.2 4.4 both Propel and Save platforms. This leaves enough room for much
EV/EBITDA (x) 56.6 71.2 48.0 higher growth at lower CACs.

Major Shareholders (%) • Some notable client partnerships in 4QFY24 like onboarding of Axis
Bank as a bank partner and 3-year contracts with EaseMyTrip and Riya
Promoters 44
Travels for integration of expense solutions.
FPIs 12
MFs 1 • Zaggle has undertaken a strategic investment in Span Across IT
BFSI’s 6 Solutions Private Limited which offers digital products for online tax
Public & Others 38 filing and financial wellness solutions. This will enhance Zaggle’s Save
offering.
Relative Performance
• Its newly launched Zoyer platform is an Accounts Payable offering
420
370 added with data-driven analytics. The platform is not fully live and
320 thus investments will be capitalised around 3QFY25.
270
220
• On the M&A front, the company is looking for opportunities with scope
170 for EBITDA accretion, product accretion or which will provide access to
120 new markets. Zaggle is in talks with few players in the US markets, while
Oct-23
Nov-23

Jan-24
Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24

May-24
Apr-24
Dec-23

its discussions to explore MENA markets have stalled due to issues on

market scalability.
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean…
Sensex (rebased)

Deep Shah Kavish Parekh

Research Analyst Research Analyst
deep.shah@bksec.com kavish.parekh@bksec.com

465
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%) (FY21-24)

Financials

Sales 2,400 3,713 5,535 7,756 47.9

EBITDA 276 599 481 706 36.7
PAT 94 419 229 440 67.4
Margin (%)

EBITDA margin 11.5 16.1 8.7 9.1 –

PAT margin 3.9 11.3 4.1 5.7 –
Ratio (x)

Net D/E (1.5) (17.9) 2.1 0.1 –

EPS (Rs) 0.8 3.4 1.9 3.6 –
BV (Rs) (3.7) (0.3) 4.0 47.0 –
RoCE (%) 189.9 123.7 33.9 17.4 –
RoA (%) 83.5 75.2 26.3 15.8 –
Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE (41.2) (170.5) 101.2 14.1 –

Net profit margin 3.9 11.3 4.1 5.7 –
Asset turnover (x) 7.7 4.8 3.4 1.7 –
Leverage factor (x) (1.4) (3.2) 7.2 1.5 –

466
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India

Price (Rs) 17,411
Expected growth on content increase and export
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ZFCV.BO
• Despite a flattish commercial vehicle market forecast for FY24-25, positive
Bloomberg code ZCVCS IN
growth is expected after the elections, driven by infrastructure projects
Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,958 and government spending. While some market segments face cyclical
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 2.4 challenges, exports are projected to grow by 15-20%, with aftermarket
Issued shares (mn) 19 sales expected to achieve low double-digit growth. ZF Commercial
Target price (Rs) 17,255 Vehicle Control Systems India (ZCVCS) is strategically positioned to
meet future regulatory requirements and market demands through
Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
localisation, new projects and significant investments.
Absolute 27 20 63
• The management anticipates normal monsoons, continued
Relative 27 20 45
manufacturing momentum and growth in services to drive overall
Valuation Ratios
growth for the company. Indian economy growing at an average
Yr to 31 Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E annual rate of 8% over the last three years.
EPS 213.4 240.8 297.5 • Management expects rapid increase in electric bus production

+/- (%) 25.5 12.8 23.5 expected in the coming years. The company is well-prepared with
a portfolio of e-mobility technologies such as Electric compressor,
PER 81.6 72.3 58.5
Electronic braking systems, Electronic stability control and
PBV 11.7 10.1 8.6 controlled air suspension systems.
Dividend Yield 0.1 0.1 0.1 • Advanced Driver Information System (ADAS), the company is

EV/Sales 8.3 7.3 6.4

collaborating with OEMs to develop advanced safety and ADAS
roadmaps to meet future customer and regulatory requirements.
EV/EBITDA 56.0 47.0 41.1
• ZCVCS is actively preparing for the anticipated regulatory changes
Major Shareholders (%) and market demands in the electric bus and commercial vehicle
Promoters 75 sectors. Currently, the company produces around 800 ESC units per
FPIs 2 month, which is insufficient for full system localisation.
MFs 15
• However, ZCVCS has localized the ECU and plans to progressively
BFSI’s 1
localize other components as production volumes increase. ESC
Public & Others 7
regulation is expected to extend to more buses by September 2025
Relative Performance and, subsequently, to trucks.
19,000 • At present, all braking system products and the traction control
17,000
15,000 systems have been localised, while the company is on track to localise
13,000 other major products as well. This localisation effort by the company
11,000
9,000 is further expected to be paced by the government requisite for all
7,000 products used in EV vehicles manufactured in India to be locally
5,000
manufactured and the company will look to localise more than 50%
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

of the new products added to the EV portfolio by FY24 and by FY25

the company aspire to localise ~70%. Earlier, few products which were
ZF Commercial Vehicle…
Sensex (rebased) being bought by suppliers are now localised at the Oragadam site.

Annamalai Jayaraj Neel Doshi

Research Analyst Research Analyst
annamalai.jayaraj@bksec.com neel.doshi@bksec.com

467
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
(FY19-24) (FY24-26E)

Financials

Sales 28,541 19,296 18,635 25,434 34,494 37,837 43,077 48,127 5.8 12.8

EBITDA 4,101 2,515 2,058 2,525 4,751 5,631 6,648 7,493 6.5 15.4

PAT 2,824 1,588 1,039 1,420 3,225 4,048 4,567 5,643 7.5 18.1

Margin (%)

Gross margin 36.2 40.5 39.1 35.4 36.3 37.3 38.0 37.1 – –

EBITDA margin 14.4 13.0 11.0 9.9 13.8 14.9 15.4 15.6 – –

PAT margin 9.9 8.2 5.6 5.6 9.3 10.7 10.6 11.7 – –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) – –

EPS (Rs) 148.9 83.7 54.8 74.9 170.0 213.4 240.8 297.5 7.5 18.1

BV (Rs) 938.4 998.8 1,052.5 1,114.6 1,270.1 1,483.5 1,724.3 2,021.8 9.6 16.7

RoCE (%) 24.4 12.1 7.8 9.5 18.9 20.4 20.0 21.2 – –

RoA (%) 18.3 10.0 7.0 8.1 15.5 16.8 16.5 17.6 – –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 17.1 8.6 5.3 6.9 14.3 15.5 15.0 15.9 – –

Net profit margin 9.9 8.2 5.6 5.6 9.3 10.7 10.6 11.7 – –

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 – –

Leverage factor (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 – –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Share Data Zydus Wellness

Price (Rs) 1,727
Expand categories to capture market share
BSE Sensex 73,961
Key highlights
Reuters code ZYDS.BO
• Focus on growing consumer segment
Bloomberg code ZYWL IN
o The company will focus on growing and developing its own brands
Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,317 and would be cautious of the consideration, while acquiring any
6M avg. daily turnover (US$ mn) 0.9 brand, unlike Complan acquisition wherein due to high goodwill
Issued shares (mn) 64 the RoEs have been subdued.

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M

o Majority of Zydus’ products have pricing power, if the leader lowers
it prices, not necessary for Zydus to lower it.
Absolute 4 10 19
o Going ahead, overall marketing spends would be around 13-13.5%.
Relative 4 10 0
o Nycil and EverYuth will continue to do well and gain market
Valuation Ratios share. In Food and Nutrition – it is confident of reviving growth in
Yr to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 SugarFree and ImLite as WHO issues are resolved, Complan would
grow faster than industry backed by launch of newer product
EPS (Rs) 48.6 48.8 42.0
extensions. Similar for GluconD the demand persists, and growth
+/- (%) 160.1 0.5 (14.0) is seen beyond summers as well.
PER (x) 35.6 35.4 41.2 • Complan
PBV (x) 2.3 2.1 2.1 o Brand is currently under slight pressure. At the time of evaluating
the acquisition the market share was around 14-15% and during
Div./Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1
the time acquisition took place the market share came down to
EV/Sales (x) 5.5 4.9 4.7 5-7%. The current market share is 4.5% (excl. online channel).
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.0 32.8 35.3 o The loss is market share was mainly due to downgrading the
ingredients, quality to save on the costs by Heinz. The customers
Major Shareholders (%)
didn’t appreciate this and led to loss of market share. Though
Promoters 70 Heinz put efforts and improved the ingredients, quality but was
FPIs 3 not able to gain back the share.
MFs 8
o In the recent times the brand was under pressure mainly due to
BFSI’s 11
increased prices of milk and subdued demand. Going ahead,
Public & Others 8
stabilised milk prices will aid the profit margins.
Relative Performance o Sales from online channels is around 14-15% for Complan, whereas
2,400 for the company it is around 8%.
2,200
o Zydus has been developing multiple product extensions and
2,000
1,800 variants e.g. Cookies.
1,600 o The Complan’s Health Food Drinks (HFD) industry is ~Rs 70 bn and
1,400
growing at around 5-6% mainly because 1. Inflation, hence, smaller
1,200
sachets launched by peers, 2. multiple options available like tablets,
Oct-22

Nov-23
Jul-22

Mar-23
Jun-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
May-24
Apr-22

Dec-22

chocolates, mixing milk with cereals, protein supplements, etc.

o Complan is expected to grow in double-digit.
Zydus Wellness
Sensex (rebased) • Glucon-D
o Consumer base is expanding for the brand, there is good potential

Rohit Bhat Maulik Varia

Research Analyst Research Analyst
rohit.bhat@bksec.com maulik.varia@bksec.com

469
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

for growth as India is a hot country, hence product is growing beyond summers also, the company
aspires for a strong double-digit growth over a longer period of time.
o The company is on a pilot phase in Andhra Pradesh/Telangana by launching ready to drink products
and tablets which has nutrients and vitamins.
• Nutralite
o Has seen double digit volume growth every year for the past four-five years (except 2020). This brand
will continue to grow. The company is also expanding the portfolio. It is working strongly with food
services like restaurants also.
o Backward integration for milk supply chain for Nutralite brands like ghee and probiotic butter has
improved overall profitability.
• SugarFree
o Difficult FY24 due to WHO issue. SugarFree growth will be good in FY25. ImLite is also expected to be good,
and the company is optimistic on the stevia. sugar free extensions would be launched going ahead.
• Personal Care
o Nycil and EverYuth have seen good growth of 17% in FY24 and will continue to grow in FY25.
o EverYuth scrub’s market share has increased from 30% to 45% in the past few years.
• International business
o 3/4th of the international business is dependent on Complan and SugarFree and is also dependent
on a few countries like Bangladesh, Nigeria, GCC, etc. these products are expected to grow, and the
company has launched product variants such as coffee premix, etc.

Key numbers
(Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 CAGR (%)
(FY19-24)
Financials

Sales 8,428 17,668 18,667 20,091 22,548 23,278 22.5

EBITDA 1,744 2,769 2,122 3,448 3,271 3,082 12.1
PAT 1,626 1,807 2,509 3,089 3,191 2,669 10.4
Margin (%)

Gross margin 64.6 55.9 54.7 51.2 49.2 51.1 –

EBITDA margin 20.7 15.7 11.4 17.2 14.5 13.2 –

PAT margin 19.3 10.2 13.4 15.4 14.2 11.5 –

Ratio (x)

Net D/E 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 –

EPS (Rs) 29.7 24.6 18.7 48.5 48.8 41.9 7.1

BV (Rs) 587.3 600.2 717.9 761.3 805.1 841.9 7.5
RoCE (%) 7.0 6.0 6.5 6.4 5.8 5.0 –

RoA (%) 5.2 3.3 4.5 5.4 5.5 4.5 –

Du Pont Analysis (%)

RoE 8.4 5.3 6.3 6.6 6.2 5.0 –

Net profit margin 19.3 10.2 13.4 15.4 14.2 11.5 –

Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 –

Leverage factor (x) 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 –

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E
Affle (India) 1,228 2,071 BUY 1,474 18,167 22,241 27,271 3,542 4,301 5,706 2,454 2,820 3,404 19.5 19.3 20.9 13.5 12.7 12.5
Ajanta Pharma 2,423 3,671 BUY 2,550 41,196 46,905 53,162 11,249 13,502 15,653 5,880 7,946 9,455 27.3 28.8 29.4 14.3 16.9 17.8
Allcargo Logistics 70 833 BUY 81 137,231 137,860 143,476 4,836 7,425 11,469 5,924 (226) 1,972 3.5 5.4 8.0 4.3 n/a 1.4
Ashok Leyland 211 7,439 HOLD 239 383,641 424,471 466,653 45,068 51,000 56,518 22,584 27,117 32,706 11.7 12.0 12.1 5.9 6.4 7.0
Aurobindo Pharma 1,235 8,708 BUY 1,375 283,146 318,182 350,927 53,361 63,138 74,858 19,277 29,240 36,732 18.8 19.8 21.3 6.8 9.2 10.5
Automotive Axles 1,981 360 BUY 2,225 22,292 21,360 23,911 2,463 2,157 2,487 1,620 1,662 1,481 11.0 10.1 10.4 7.3 7.8 6.2
Axis Bank 1,174 43,634 BUY 1,226 498,945 562,168 642,822 371,232 403,218 456,882 (29,101) 248,614 244,626 74.4 71.7 71.1 n/a 44.2 38.1
Balrampur Chini Mills 388 943 BUY 540 51,980 59,723 68,512 8,210 10,924 12,824 2,755 4,697 6,449 15.8 18.3 18.7 5.3 7.9 9.4
Biocon 319 4,615 BUY 335 145,631 154,993 171,544 32,987 36,153 42,768 7,411 7,980 10,503 22.7 23.3 24.9 5.1 5.1 6.1
Blue Star 1,485 3,674 HOLD 1,525 96,854 119,577 149,997 6,649 8,785 12,688 2,297 4,150 6,113 6.9 7.3 8.5 2.4 3.5 4.1
Can Fin Homes 739 1,183 BUY 900 12,585 13,844 15,938 10,363 11,653 13,408 6,212 7,507 8,501 82.3 84.2 84.1 49.4 54.2 53.3
Caplin Point Laboratories 1,303 1,191 BUY 1,660 16,788 19,332 22,165 5,483 6,328 7,360 3,769 4,546 5,137 32.7 32.7 33.2 22.5 23.5 23.2
Castrol India 193 2,298 HOLD 230 50,746 54,768 58,561 11,979 12,628 13,800 8,152 8,641 9,395 23.6 23.1 23.6 16.1 15.8 16.0
CCL Products India 572 919 BUY 706 26,537 31,032 36,150 4,453 5,343 6,443 2,840 2,500 2,966 16.8 17.2 17.8 10.7 8.1 8.2
Century Textiles & Industries 2,226 2,991 BUY 2,247 42,640 45,053 51,590 6,612 8,677 11,908 1,633 2,950 3,779 15.5 19.3 23.1 3.8 6.5 7.3
CESC 145 2,313 BUY 181 154,265 165,626 171,309 23,628 31,305 35,121 13,970 14,431 16,025 15.3 18.9 20.5 9.1 8.7 9.4
CG Consumer Electricals 393 3,039 BUY 436 63,884 72,524 82,599 6,887 11,151 13,566 4,700 4,665 8,662 10.8 15.4 16.4 7.4 6.4 10.5
Chola Finance 1,261 12,746 BUY 1,600 83,831 112,279 144,949 59,039 80,948 106,169 26,662 34,228 46,676 70.4 72.1 73.2 31.8 30.5 32.2
City Union Bank 145 1,291 HOLD 155 21,235 23,113 25,782 15,167 15,834 17,585 9,375 10,157 9,894 71.4 68.5 68.2 44.1 43.9 38.4
Colgate-Palmolive 2,684 8,783 HOLD 2,700 56,804 61,907 68,139 19,008 20,809 22,988 10,471 13,237 14,629 33.5 33.6 33.7 18.4 21.4 21.5
Cummins India 3,714 12,388 BUY 2,875 88,959 102,623 118,391 16,191 18,472 21,902 11,441 14,674 16,428 18.2 18.0 18.5 12.9 14.3 13.9
DCB Bank 129 487 HOLD 133 19,279 20,570 23,099 8,644 8,813 9,679 4,656 5,360 4,476 44.8 42.8 41.9 24.1 26.1 19.4
eClerx Services 2,244 1,324 BUY 2,749 29,255 32,911 36,921 7,749 8,228 9,932 4,889 5,115 5,402 26.5 25.0 26.9 16.7 15.5 14.6
EID Parry 626 1,337 BUY 703 355,609 387,001 419,745 35,089 40,008 45,081 18,277 23,112 26,567 9.9 10.3 10.7 5.1 6.0 6.3
Electrosteel Castings 167 1,193 BUY 233 74,780 75,963 85,822 11,784 13,974 16,578 3,158 7,399 8,613 15.8 18.4 19.3 4.2 9.7 10.0
Emami 545 2,878 HOLD 600 35,544 38,973 42,651 9,487 10,754 12,206 7,473 7,498 8,316 26.7 27.6 28.6 21.0 19.2 19.5
Escorts Kubota 3,813 5,070 HOLD 3,533 87,767 118,514 129,191 11,687 14,222 16,795 8,681 10,371 12,074 13.3 12.0 13.0 9.9 8.8 9.3
GAIL (India) 204 16,176 HOLD 184 1,305,731 1,340,492 1,378,683 133,747 131,144 151,023 53,015 88,365 84,103 10.2 9.8 11.0 4.1 6.6 6.1
Galaxy Surfactants 2,493 1,063 BUY 3,322 37,944 42,456 46,065 4,622 5,582 6,317 3,810 3,015 3,421 12.2 13.1 13.7 10.0 7.1 7.4

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS (Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E(X) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt / Equity (X) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E t/o (US$ mn)

Affle (India) 20.1 24.3 31.5 61.0 50.6 39.0 (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) 17.6 17.8 19.1 18.0 19.5 21.3 14.8 16.1 17.6 4.1
Ajanta Pharma 61.8 73.6 85.5 39.2 32.9 28.3 (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 21.2 20.9 20.1 28.1 27.8 26.8 21.4 21.4 20.9 3.9
Allcargo Logistics (0.2) 2.0 3.4 n/a 35.1 20.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 n/a 7.8 13.7 3.4 9.5 14.4 2.2 6.2 9.3 4.4
Ashok Leyland 9.2 11.1 12.5 22.8 18.9 16.9 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) 31.8 30.4 27.2 31.6 32.7 31.5 18.2 19.3 19.3 37.4
Aurobindo Pharma 49.9 62.7 76.5 24.7 19.7 16.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 10.5 12.3 14.0 12.1 13.8 15.7 10.5 12.0 13.6 30.4
Automotive Axles 109.9 98.0 111.3 18.0 20.2 17.8 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 20.3 16.0 16.3 26.7 21.1 21.7 18.9 15.6 16.1 0.6
Axis Bank 478.8 555.5 642.3 2.5 2.1 1.8 18.1 15.1 14.4 1.8 1.5 1.5 140.2
Balrampur Chini Mills 23.3 32.0 38.8 16.7 12.2 10.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 15.3 18.1 18.7 13.9 16.3 17.1 12.8 15.0 15.7 11.6
Biocon 6.6 8.7 12.7 48.1 36.5 25.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 4.2 5.2 7.1 5.8 5.5 6.7 4.8 4.5 5.7 25.5
Blue Star 20.2 29.7 44.2 73.6 50.0 33.6 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 21.1 21.7 26.8 24.9 27.1 34.4 10.2 11.1 13.1 5.3
Can Fin Homes 326.2 385.0 452.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 18.8 18.0 17.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 7.4
Caplin Point Laboratories 59.9 67.7 78.8 21.8 19.3 16.6 (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) 21.0 18.6 17.4 25.7 22.8 21.4 22.9 20.7 19.6 2.1
Castrol India 8.7 9.5 10.5 22.1 20.3 18.5 (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) 43.1 42.4 42.4 57.2 55.1 55.1 36.6 35.1 35.1 15.9
CCL Products India 18.8 22.3 28.3 30.4 25.7 20.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 15.8 16.5 17.9 12.1 12.0 13.1 11.5 11.4 12.4 1.3
Century Textiles & Industries 26.4 33.8 56.2 84.3 65.8 39.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 7.5 9.1 13.6 8.0 9.5 12.8 5.4 6.4 8.2 8.3
CESC 10.8 12.0 13.9 13.4 12.1 10.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 12.7 13.1 14.0 4.9 6.7 7.1 4.3 6.0 6.6 15.0
CG Consumer Electricals 7.4 13.8 17.3 52.8 28.4 22.7 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) 15.4 25.5 28.4 16.9 26.2 29.6 12.8 19.1 21.4 15.0
Chola Finance 232.7 285.2 371.5 5.4 4.4 3.4 20.2 21.4 21.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 25.4
City Union Bank 103.4 118.3 129.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 12.8 11.1 9.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 7.9
Colgate-Palmolive 48.7 53.8 59.8 55.1 49.9 44.9 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 73.7 77.7 79.3 96.2 99.5 101.3 59.4 60.7 63.3 11.8
Cummins India 52.9 59.3 68.8 70.2 62.7 54.0 (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 25.8 26.0 27.2 31.0 31.8 33.6 24.6 24.9 26.1 19.7
DCB Bank 142.0 153.7 167.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 11.9 8.9 8.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 6.0
eClerx Services 107.4 113.4 137.4 20.9 19.8 16.3 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) 25.8 23.3 24.0 30.6 27.8 29.1 27.3 24.8 26.4 2.6
EID Parry 75.0 90.1 104.3 8.3 6.9 6.0 0.1 (0.0) (0.2) 36.3 37.6 37.7 27.5 27.6 27.0 17.1 17.6 17.9 5.4
Electrosteel Castings 12.0 13.9 17.2 13.9 12.0 9.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 15.6 15.7 16.8 14.9 16.4 18.0 13.1 14.5 15.9 7.6
Emami 17.2 19.1 21.7 31.7 28.6 25.1 (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 30.5 31.2 33.8 32.3 33.3 36.8 25.7 26.6 29.5 5.1
Escorts Kubota 92.7 107.9 126.2 41.1 35.3 30.2 (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 11.6 12.0 12.4 15.3 15.8 16.3 12.9 13.1 13.4 12.0
GAIL (India) 13.4 12.8 15.1 15.2 16.0 13.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 14.7 12.6 13.8 13.8 12.0 13.3 11.9 10.4 11.6 55.9
Galaxy Surfactants 85.0 96.5 110.7 29.3 25.8 22.5 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 14.8 14.8 15.2 17.2 18.3 19.1 14.1 15.1 15.9 1.0

472
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E
Great Eastern Shipping 1,013 1,740 BUY 1,350 52,552 62,676 64,564 28,315 30,815 32,463 24,578 23,740 24,485 53.9 49.2 50.3 46.8 37.9 37.9
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 3,229 4,268 BUY 4,215 42,808 62,964 79,574 9,548 17,367 24,917 13,288 4,349 10,067 22.3 27.6 31.3 31.0 6.9 12.7
Havells India 1,890 14,251 HOLD 1,747 185,499 206,604 233,685 18,453 23,137 28,613 10,750 12,732 15,976 9.9 11.2 12.2 5.8 6.2 6.8
HDFC Bank 1,517 138,805 HOLD 1,667 1,064,883 1,085,325 1,254,538 931,582 943,875 1,021,341 441,087 612,090 608,123 87.5 87.0 81.4 41.4 56.4 48.5
Hikal 295 437 BUY 330 18,077 20,550 23,931 2,587 3,172 3,971 784 682 1,034 14.3 15.4 16.6 4.3 3.3 4.3
Hindalco Industries 673 18,205 BUY 610 2,159,620 2,125,176 2,072,715 (374,500) 273,312 304,379 100,970 (511,670) 117,678 n/a 12.9 14.7 4.7 n/a 5.7
Hindustan Foods 494 681 BUY 686 27,547 38,566 48,593 2,218 2,930 3,632 711 930 1,327 8.1 7.6 7.5 2.6 2.4 2.7
Hindustan Petroleum Corp. 543 9,276 BUY 586 4,335,249 4,283,201 4,331,334 248,390 148,478 196,611 (89,740) 146,938 65,195 5.7 3.5 4.5 n/a 3.4 1.5
HomeFirst Finance 803 857 BUY 1,150 5,278 6,377 8,012 4,254 5,361 6,768 2,283 3,057 3,826 80.6 84.1 84.5 43.3 47.9 47.8
ICICI Bank 1,132 95,758 HOLD 1,103 743,057 851,994 952,088 581,308 659,671 728,989 18,965 408,883 412,100 78.2 77.4 76.6 42.9 48.0 43.3
IndiaMART InterMESH 2,560 1,848 BUY 3,318 11,390 13,690 16,291 3,339 4,076 4,990 2,664 3,621 4,063 29.3 29.8 30.6 23.4 26.5 24.9
IndusInd Bank 1,442 13,505 BUY 1,863 206,159 235,797 272,981 157,403 180,914 209,797 73,897 89,498 95,077 76.4 76.7 76.9 35.8 38.0 34.8
Info Edge (India) 6,336 9,865 BUY 6,912 23,658 27,443 32,657 9,471 9,934 12,552 7,163 8,380 8,477 40.0 36.2 38.4 30.3 30.5 26.0
Jindal SAW 543 2,087 BUY 843 209,577 228,933 242,885 33,210 34,569 35,947 6,690 16,770 17,967 15.8 15.1 14.8 3.2 7.3 7.4
Jindal Stainless 705 6,988 BUY 772 385,625 482,682 559,244 47,043 64,379 75,023 20,838 25,943 42,480 12.2 13.3 13.4 5.4 5.4 7.6
Jindal Steel & Power 1,069 13,124 BUY 1,077 476,857 576,265 721,789 101,184 110,818 150,020 31,933 61,331 52,586 21.2 19.2 20.8 6.7 10.6 7.3
JK Tyre & Industries 416 1,305 HOLD 520 151,342 163,540 179,833 21,335 21,287 23,530 3,240 8,389 8,251 14.1 13.0 13.1 2.1 5.1 4.6
JSW Energy 601 12,632 BUY 645 114,859 160,323 184,872 53,818 77,947 92,456 14,801 17,247 28,066 46.9 48.6 50.0 12.9 10.8 15.2
Kalpataru Projects Int’l 1,228 2,400 BUY 1,411 196,260 249,429 306,172 16,280 21,347 26,968 3,488 5,160 9,068 8.3 8.6 8.8 1.8 2.1 3.0
Karur Vysya Bank 197 1,891 BUY 222 38,092 40,782 45,249 28,291 31,446 34,450 11,061 16,048 17,231 74.3 77.1 76.1 29.0 39.4 38.1
KEI Industries 4,284 4,652 BUY 4,331 81,041 97,471 115,562 8,375 10,684 13,146 4,774 5,811 7,380 10.3 11.0 11.4 5.9 6.0 6.4
Kotak Mahindra Bank 1,703 40,748 BUY 1,826 259,932 302,178 350,831 195,875 223,141 258,467 109,393 137,816 141,481 75.4 73.8 73.7 42.1 45.6 40.3
KPR Mill 801 3,294 BUY 912 60,597 68,020 74,621 12,367 15,552 18,211 8,141 8,054 10,456 20.4 22.9 24.4 13.4 11.8 14.0
Macrotech Developers 1,336 15,988 BUY 1,362 103,161 120,961 147,114 26,757 32,337 43,340 4,867 15,491 20,336 25.9 26.7 29.5 4.7 12.8 13.8
Mahindra & Mahindra 2,580 38,601 BUY 2,888 987,634 1,121,312 1,271,007 124,728 144,649 165,231 79,782 107,377 118,292 12.6 12.9 13.0 8.1 9.6 9.3
Mahindra Finance 271 4,035 BUY 345 69,772 85,491 100,351 41,783 53,560 62,913 19,002 18,049 26,155 59.9 62.7 62.7 27.2 21.1 26.1
Marico 604 9,407 BUY 600 96,530 107,272 118,425 20,260 22,203 25,083 13,220 15,020 16,364 21.0 20.7 21.2 13.7 14.0 13.8
MM Forgings 1,127 327 BUY 1,190 15,504 18,002 20,084 2,868 3,420 3,856 1,256 1,528 1,906 18.5 19.0 19.2 8.1 8.5 9.5
Mold-Tek Packaging 807 323 BUY 1,041 7,547 8,873 10,454 1,385 1,661 2,001 804 729 901 18.4 18.7 19.1 10.7 8.2 8.6

473
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS (Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E(X) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt / Equity (X) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E t/o (US$ mn)

Great Eastern Shipping 166.3 171.5 192.5 6.1 5.9 5.3 (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 20.9 18.3 17.7 18.7 16.4 16.3 17.7 15.5 15.5 8.0
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 39.6 91.6 140.5 81.6 35.2 23.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 7.6 15.7 20.2 9.3 16.8 21.9 8.3 15.1 19.6 5.2
Havells India 20.4 25.5 31.8 92.8 74.0 59.5 (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) 18.1 20.3 22.6 22.6 25.4 28.3 14.9 16.9 19.1 19.6
HDFC Bank 539.4 570.4 645.1 2.8 2.7 2.4 18.7 16.9 14.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 400.3
Hikal 5.5 8.4 12.4 53.3 35.1 23.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.9 8.3 11.2 7.3 9.1 11.5 6.2 7.8 9.6 1.1
Hindalco Industries (230.5) 53.0 62.1 n/a 12.7 10.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 n/a 10.6 11.3 n/a 10.2 11.4 n/a 7.9 8.6 52.9
Hindustan Foods 8.1 11.1 15.3 60.9 44.7 32.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 19.7 16.9 16.8 14.7 14.1 15.3 10.7 10.4 11.0 0.7
Hindustan Petroleum Corp. 103.6 45.9 67.8 5.2 11.8 8.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 42.7 15.1 19.7 20.4 9.6 12.5 13.2 6.3 8.4 55.5
HomeFirst Finance 239.7 278.9 328.9 3.4 2.9 2.4 15.5 16.7 17.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5
ICICI Bank 331.7 389.1 452.8 3.4 2.9 2.5 18.7 16.0 15.1 2.4 2.1 2.0 206.4
IndiaMART InterMESH 60.4 67.7 80.0 42.4 37.8 32.0 (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) 19.1 21.7 21.9 19.3 21.4 21.6 13.9 14.6 14.4 8.1
IndusInd Bank 782.8 901.7 1,035.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 15.3 14.2 13.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 69.5
Info Edge (India) 65.2 65.9 82.2 97.2 96.1 77.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) 7.5 7.2 8.5 9.8 9.7 11.4 8.7 8.5 9.8 21.1
Jindal SAW 52.4 56.1 63.2 10.3 9.7 8.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 18.6 16.1 15.1 19.9 17.8 17.6 14.9 13.7 13.5 8.0
Jindal Stainless 31.5 51.6 68.4 22.4 13.7 10.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 19.7 26.1 27.4 20.2 24.5 25.2 13.9 17.8 18.7 17.2
Jindal Steel & Power 61.0 52.3 76.1 17.5 20.4 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.7 11.2 14.4 12.3 11.4 16.2 10.5 9.6 13.4 23.9
JK Tyre & Industries 34.1 33.5 41.1 12.2 12.4 10.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 23.2 19.1 19.3 17.0 15.8 16.8 12.9 11.9 12.7 7.3
JSW Energy 10.5 17.1 21.2 57.2 35.1 28.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 8.7 11.4 11.7 8.4 10.4 10.7 7.9 9.8 10.2 27.6
Kalpataru Projects Int’l 32.3 56.7 78.0 38.1 21.7 15.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 10.5 16.7 20.2 12.7 17.4 21.0 5.9 8.1 10.0 5.0
Karur Vysya Bank 122.0 139.6 158.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 17.2 16.0 15.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 6.7
KEI Industries 64.9 82.4 102.7 66.0 52.0 41.7 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 20.3 20.8 20.6 26.8 27.3 27.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 12.1
Kotak Mahindra Bank 481.3 550.2 635.0 3.5 3.1 2.7 15.3 13.6 14.3 2.5 2.2 2.3 136.9
KPR Mill 23.6 30.6 36.4 34.0 26.2 22.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 20.0 21.9 21.9 20.6 24.1 24.8 19.5 23.0 23.5 2.9
Macrotech Developers 15.6 20.4 28.9 85.8 65.3 46.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 10.3 11.0 13.7 11.0 12.0 14.9 6.1 6.3 7.6 18.5
Mahindra & Mahindra 89.6 98.7 112.0 28.8 26.1 23.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) 22.4 20.5 19.6 24.1 24.4 24.4 16.8 17.5 17.7 72.4
Mahindra Finance 147.1 161.3 178.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 10.0 13.7 14.0 1.7 2.1 2.0 14.0
Marico 11.6 12.7 14.3 51.9 47.6 42.2 (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) 39.4 37.1 35.9 38.8 36.9 37.4 28.0 27.7 28.8 13.6
MM Forgings 63.3 79.0 85.0 17.8 14.3 13.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 20.2 21.0 18.9 16.4 17.4 17.2 13.6 14.6 14.5 1.0
Mold-Tek Packaging 22.0 27.2 34.7 36.7 29.7 23.3 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 12.5 14.0 16.1 14.6 16.0 18.4 13.2 14.3 16.4 0.7

474
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E
Natco Pharma 1,020 2,199 BUY 1,125 39,988 49,185 60,016 17,514 21,356 24,878 7,153 14,364 16,362 43.8 43.4 41.5 17.9 29.2 27.3
Navin Fluorine Int’l 3,356 2,002 HOLD 3,200 20,650 24,799 30,837 3,983 6,012 7,695 3,752 2,303 3,662 19.3 24.2 25.0 18.2 9.3 11.9
Neogen Chemicals 1,475 468 HOLD 1,586 6,907 8,591 13,902 1,101 1,402 2,361 500 357 532 15.9 16.3 17.0 7.2 4.1 3.8
Neuland Laboratories 6,334 978 BUY 7,500 15,306 16,499 19,012 4,626 4,688 5,800 1,635 3,001 3,017 30.2 28.4 30.5 10.7 18.2 15.9
NOCIL 258 517 BUY 389 14,761 16,975 20,370 1,926 2,589 3,901 1,491 1,202 1,702 13.1 15.3 19.2 10.1 7.1 8.4
PCBL 252 1,143 BUY 303 64,198 83,244 90,840 10,373 14,318 16,124 4,422 4,911 4,776 16.2 17.2 17.8 6.9 5.9 5.3
Persistent Systems 3,555 6,590 HOLD 3,537 98,216 114,291 131,435 17,243 20,375 24,746 9,211 11,421 13,652 17.6 17.8 18.8 9.4 10.0 10.4
Petronet LNG 305 5,512 HOLD 278 527,284 563,895 552,082 52,065 52,453 55,349 32,399 35,362 35,637 9.9 9.3 10.0 6.1 6.3 6.5
PI Industries 3,631 6,629 BUY 4,186 76,658 88,385 102,279 20,147 22,702 26,239 12,295 16,815 16,374 26.3 25.7 25.7 16.0 19.0 16.0
Polycab India 6,684 12,085 HOLD 6,352 180,394 216,354 257,764 24,918 31,125 37,999 12,823 18,058 22,116 13.8 14.4 14.7 7.1 8.3 8.6
Punjab National Bank 126 16,754 HOLD 119 400,831 464,769 495,261 249,308 305,768 343,490 25,072 82,446 164,175 62.2 65.8 69.4 6.3 17.7 33.1
Radico Khaitan 1,645 2,646 BUY 2,070 41,185 48,391 55,490 5,061 7,136 9,452 2,044 2,558 4,210 12.3 14.7 17.0 5.0 5.3 7.6
Rajratan Global Wire 581 355 HOLD 641 8,820 10,584 12,800 1,297 1,736 2,240 1,001 714 985 14.7 16.4 17.5 11.4 6.7 7.7
Rallis India 268 626 SELL 165 26,480 30,244 34,552 3,110 3,489 4,064 684 1,470 1,767 11.7 11.5 11.8 2.6 4.9 5.1
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes 3,310 2,792 BUY 4,059 50,591 53,870 59,963 8,971 9,535 10,733 5,105 6,228 6,609 17.7 17.7 17.9 10.1 11.6 11.0
RITES 735 2,124 BUY 807 25,464 29,958 34,374 6,644 8,289 9,952 5,420 4,742 6,021 26.1 27.7 29.0 21.3 15.8 17.5
Safari Industries 2,030 1,191 BUY 2,468 15,543 19,469 24,044 2,738 3,413 4,280 1,251 1,710 2,094 17.6 17.5 17.8 8.0 8.8 8.7
Sagar Cements 217 341 BUY 283 24,951 29,870 34,575 2,459 4,046 4,985 85 (521) 207 9.9 13.5 14.4 0.3 n/a 0.6
Samvardhana Motherson Int’l 140 11,428 BUY 147 978,627 1,198,003 1,323,377 86,119 109,018 128,368 15,951 32,382 45,439 8.8 9.1 9.7 1.6 2.7 3.4
Sandhar Technologies 563 408 BUY 698 35,211 39,343 43,277 3,406 4,052 4,631 741 1,098 1,382 9.7 10.3 10.7 2.1 2.8 3.2
Saregama India 478 1,110 BUY 543 7,997 10,492 12,503 2,279 3,043 3,751 1,851 1,912 2,076 28.5 29.0 30.0 23.1 18.2 16.6
Sharda Cropchem 407 442 HOLD 434 31,630 36,254 41,826 2,829 5,411 6,668 3,996 319 2,047 8.9 14.9 15.9 12.6 0.9 4.9
Shoppers Stop 768 1,016 BUY 1,250 43,166 57,128 76,569 7,170 9,727 13,257 1,160 772 1,778 16.6 17.0 17.3 2.7 1.4 2.3
Shree Cement 25,456 11,052 BUY 31,377 191,782 205,284 235,787 43,636 49,820 57,458 11,739 24,684 26,948 22.8 24.3 24.4 6.1 12.0 11.4
Shriram Finance 2,398 10,843 BUY 3,050 187,937 223,895 262,329 142,020 170,414 201,926 59,794 71,905 87,227 75.6 76.1 77.0 31.8 32.1 33.3
SRF 2,289 8,165 HOLD 2,191 131,385 149,436 171,751 25,841 35,016 41,680 21,623 13,357 18,509 19.7 23.4 24.3 16.5 8.9 10.8
Subros 621 487 BUY 791 31,140 35,439 40,116 2,497 3,197 3,838 482 983 1,562 8.0 9.0 9.6 1.5 2.8 3.9
Sudarshan Chemical Ind. 806 672 BUY 1,090 25,143 29,272 33,218 3,164 4,017 5,031 448 1,040 1,812 12.6 13.7 15.1 1.8 3.6 5.5
Sun Pharmaceutical 1,487 42,921 BUY 1,700 477,585 527,419 586,729 130,231 147,588 170,961 86,296 100,065 111,994 27.3 28.0 29.1 18.1 19.0 19.1

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS (Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E(X) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt / Equity (X) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E t/o (US$ mn)

Natco Pharma 80.2 91.4 102.8 12.7 11.2 9.9 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) 26.8 24.3 21.5 29.6 28.9 26.9 26.9 26.5 24.9 9.2
Navin Fluorine Int’l 46.5 73.9 91.4 72.2 45.4 36.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 10.1 14.5 15.8 10.3 14.0 15.5 9.1 12.3 13.6 10.3
Neogen Chemicals 13.5 20.2 39.7 109.1 73.1 37.2 0.5 1.5 2.3 5.7 7.8 16.1 9.1 7.9 9.6 7.5 6.6 8.1 0.8
Neuland Laboratories 232.6 233.9 294.2 27.2 27.1 21.5 (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) 26.4 21.1 21.5 31.4 26.1 26.9 24.3 20.5 21.3 3.8
NOCIL 7.2 10.2 16.2 35.7 25.2 15.9 (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) 7.6 10.1 14.6 9.4 12.6 18.4 8.6 11.5 16.8 4.1
PCBL 13.0 12.7 15.9 19.3 19.9 15.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 16.2 13.7 15.0 12.9 11.7 12.7 11.0 10.4 11.0 12.9
Persistent Systems 75.7 90.4 110.5 47.0 39.3 32.2 (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) 25.6 25.2 25.8 29.0 30.7 32.0 21.2 22.7 24.2 34.0
Petronet LNG 23.6 23.8 22.4 13.0 12.9 13.7 (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) 22.2 19.8 16.6 25.0 23.0 19.5 21.2 19.6 17.3 24.2
PI Industries 110.6 107.7 119.6 32.8 33.7 30.4 (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) 21.1 18.5 19.1 23.3 23.3 24.1 19.9 19.9 20.7 19.0
Polycab India 120.2 147.2 180.6 55.6 45.4 37.0 (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) 24.4 24.9 25.6 31.7 32.6 33.4 23.0 23.3 24.1 56.1
Punjab National Bank 85.3 102.2 118.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 8.7 15.4 14.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 86.9
Radico Khaitan 19.1 31.5 45.7 86.0 52.2 36.0 0.3 0.1 (0.0) 11.0 16.0 19.6 12.5 17.5 22.7 10.3 13.9 17.6 5.4
Rajratan Global Wire 14.1 19.4 28.4 41.3 29.9 20.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 15.2 18.1 22.1 17.0 19.7 24.7 14.5 16.8 20.6 0.6
Rallis India 7.6 9.1 11.0 35.4 29.4 24.3 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 8.3 9.4 10.7 10.8 11.8 13.5 7.3 7.9 8.8 4.7
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes 88.9 94.3 106.4 37.3 35.1 31.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) 21.7 19.4 18.8 26.3 24.1 24.1 22.4 21.2 21.3 2.8
RITES 19.7 25.1 30.3 37.2 29.3 24.3 (1.2) (1.2) (1.3) 17.4 20.1 21.9 21.9 25.3 27.5 11.3 13.2 13.9 26.9
Safari Industries 35.2 43.1 55.3 57.7 47.1 36.7 (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) 27.5 22.9 23.5 31.5 27.0 27.9 23.8 20.9 21.5 2.0
Sagar Cements (4.0) 1.6 6.6 n/a 136.5 32.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 n/a 1.1 4.3 2.4 5.6 8.0 2.1 4.9 6.8 1.4
Samvardhana Motherson Int’l 4.8 6.7 9.2 29.3 20.9 15.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 13.5 16.7 19.7 13.5 15.6 18.6 8.9 10.2 12.0 30.4
Sandhar Technologies 18.2 23.0 30.4 30.9 24.5 18.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 11.3 12.7 14.7 11.6 13.0 15.2 8.6 9.4 10.5 1.0
Saregama India 9.9 10.8 13.4 48.2 44.4 35.8 (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) 13.7 13.6 15.4 17.9 18.4 20.7 14.7 15.1 16.7 2.8
Sharda Cropchem 3.5 22.7 29.0 115.3 18.0 14.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 1.4 8.8 10.4 3.1 10.8 12.7 1.8 6.8 8.1 0.9
Shoppers Stop 7.1 16.3 30.3 108.7 47.2 25.3 0.5 0.1 (0.0) 30.4 43.1 48.3 13.2 15.8 18.8 6.8 8.5 10.1 1.0
Shree Cement 684.2 746.9 831.4 37.2 34.1 30.6 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) 12.8 12.5 12.5 14.9 15.8 16.0 12.4 13.5 13.7 12.0
Shriram Finance 1,188.9 1,374.1 1,590.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 15.7 16.7 17.6 3.3 3.4 3.5 42.9
SRF 45.1 62.4 76.6 50.8 36.7 29.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 12.3 15.1 16.2 11.4 14.4 15.6 9.7 12.6 13.8 16.3
Subros 15.1 23.9 30.4 41.2 25.9 20.4 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) 10.8 15.2 16.6 15.1 19.2 21.3 9.5 11.8 13.1 2.5
Sudarshan Chemical Ind. 15.0 26.2 36.3 53.7 30.8 22.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.5 14.9 18.4 10.0 14.5 18.2 7.4 10.6 13.2 2.8
Sun Pharmaceutical 41.7 46.7 54.7 35.6 31.8 27.2 (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.7 16.9 17.1 14.2 14.6 15.0 44.4

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E
Sundram Fasteners 1,160 2,933 BUY 1,462 58,532 67,310 77,430 9,358 11,495 13,287 4,947 5,480 7,190 16.0 17.1 17.2 8.5 8.1 9.3
Suprajit Engineering 415 692 BUY 469 28,554 32,275 37,116 3,210 3,886 4,625 1,521 1,585 2,073 11.2 12.0 12.5 5.3 4.9 5.6
Suven Pharma 632 1,936 BUY 800 10,340 11,528 14,602 4,058 4,556 6,319 4,113 3,003 3,404 39.2 39.5 43.3 39.8 26.0 23.3
Tata Consumer Products 1,098 12,592 BUY 1,280 152,059 183,827 205,547 22,841 29,339 33,763 12,004 15,424 21,337 15.0 16.0 16.4 7.9 8.4 10.4
Tata Motors 961 42,378 BUY 1,202 4,341,828 4,617,306 5,280,219 590,489 637,188 739,231 24,143 224,480 251,571 13.6 13.8 14.0 0.6 4.9 4.8
Tata Power 447 17,194 HOLD 445 615,423 680,788 727,376 108,774 127,735 154,485 38,097 42,802 50,403 17.7 18.8 21.2 6.2 6.3 6.9
TeamLease Services 3,014 608 BUY 3,878 93,140 107,637 125,660 1,306 1,881 2,413 1,140 1,098 1,781 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.4
The Ramco Cements 778 2,212 BUY 1,021 93,273 99,858 112,111 15,525 17,824 21,585 3,435 3,949 6,245 16.6 17.8 19.3 3.7 4.0 5.6
Thermax 5,144 7,375 HOLD 4,278 93,235 113,646 136,575 7,974 11,384 14,569 4,507 5,677 8,505 8.6 10.0 10.7 4.8 5.0 6.2
Titagarh Rail Systems 1,227 1,989 BUY 1,471 38,533 44,259 59,505 4,519 5,289 7,412 1,496 2,969 3,531 11.7 11.9 12.5 3.9 6.7 5.9
Trent 4,715 20,170 BUY 5,040 123,751 176,077 230,065 19,221 28,920 38,394 3,937 14,775 18,705 15.5 16.4 16.7 3.2 8.4 8.1
TTK Prestige 702 1,170 BUY 948 26,843 29,685 33,621 3,171 3,853 4,703 2,550 2,349 2,820 11.8 13.0 14.0 9.5 7.9 8.4
Union Bank of India 157 14,375 BUY 170 365,704 398,547 432,295 282,106 303,504 341,112 84,333 136,483 157,766 77.1 76.2 78.9 23.1 34.2 36.5
United Spirits 1,178 10,313 HOLD 1,160 110,713 125,376 139,813 17,574 20,502 24,230 9,704 10,855 12,829 15.9 16.4 17.3 8.8 8.7 9.2
UPL 516 4,659 SELL 407 430,980 455,777 503,862 55,150 79,934 99,208 47,040 280 12,069 12.8 17.5 19.7 10.9 0.1 2.4
Usha Martin 355 1,303 BUY 471 32,252 40,148 48,362 5,986 7,968 10,390 3,506 4,241 5,450 18.6 19.8 21.5 10.9 10.6 11.3
Varun Beverages 1,498 23,427 BUY 1,550 160,426 198,211 238,812 36,095 43,574 54,532 15,501 21,018 24,886 22.5 22.0 22.8 9.7 10.6 10.4
V-Guard Industries 368 1,925 HOLD 402 45,594 52,199 60,361 3,536 4,472 6,093 1,803 2,309 3,020 7.8 8.6 10.1 4.0 4.4 5.0
VIP Industries 514 878 HOLD 570 22,450 25,395 28,808 1,936 3,058 4,238 1,846 285 1,189 8.6 12.0 14.7 8.2 1.1 4.1
V-Mart Retail 2,270 540 HOLD 2,230 27,856 31,854 36,934 2,131 3,737 5,164 40 (968) (318) 7.6 11.7 14.0 0.1 n/a n/a
Voltas 1,372 5,461 HOLD 1,408 124,812 162,599 192,768 4,746 12,252 15,419 3,788 2,520 9,083 3.8 7.5 8.0 3.0 1.5 4.7
VST Tillers 3,361 349 BUY 3,655 9,680 11,737 13,337 1,242 1,584 1,867 924 1,211 1,220 12.8 13.5 14.0 9.5 10.3 9.1
Welspun Corp 605 1,905 BUY 755 174,273 156,315 168,176 17,079 17,429 20,181 2,067 10,030 10,981 9.8 11.2 12.0 1.2 6.4 6.5
Westlife Foodworld 867 1,627 BUY 1,040 23,918 27,384 31,381 3,693 4,340 5,010 1,116 692 830 15.4 15.9 16.0 4.7 2.5 2.6
Yes Bank 23 8,316 SELL 15 80,946 89,268 114,874 33,863 38,667 59,352 7,174 12,511 9,630 41.8 43.3 51.7 8.9 14.0 8.4
ZF Commercial Vehicle 13,600 3,104 HOLD 17,255 38,772 43,077 48,127 5,721 6,617 7,493 3,225 3,835 4,544 14.8 15.4 15.6 8.3 8.9 9.4
Control Systems India

477
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS (Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E(X) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt / Equity (X) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E t/o (US$ mn)

Sundram Fasteners 26.1 34.2 40.6 44.5 33.9 28.6 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 17.1 19.6 19.5 19.7 23.0 23.4 16.7 19.7 20.1 2.0
Suprajit Engineering 11.5 15.0 18.8 36.2 27.7 22.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.3 14.6 16.1 12.7 15.1 17.0 10.5 12.3 13.7 1.6
Suven Pharma 11.8 13.4 18.5 53.6 47.3 34.1 (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) 16.1 15.8 18.7 20.6 20.1 23.9 19.7 19.2 22.8 3.2
Tata Consumer Products 16.2 22.4 25.1 67.8 49.0 43.8 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) 9.5 11.8 11.6 9.7 10.6 11.2 8.5 9.4 10.1 25.6
Tata Motors 58.6 65.7 87.1 16.4 14.6 11.0 0.8 0.2 (0.1) 39.7 31.4 30.5 15.7 16.4 19.6 10.4 10.2 11.8 134.0
Tata Power 13.4 15.8 17.4 33.4 28.4 25.7 1.3 1.7 1.6 14.0 14.8 14.7 8.4 9.3 10.0 6.7 7.4 8.1 97.9
TeamLease Services 64.3 104.2 139.1 46.9 28.9 21.7 (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) 12.7 17.6 19.5 11.2 14.3 15.7 7.6 10.1 11.5 2.0
The Ramco Cements 16.7 26.4 39.0 46.6 29.4 20.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 5.7 8.4 11.3 7.5 9.2 11.6 6.3 7.5 9.4 6.3
Thermax 50.4 75.5 95.1 102.0 68.1 54.1 (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) 13.7 18.3 20.5 16.6 20.2 22.9 9.3 11.1 11.6 7.9
Titagarh Rail Systems 24.8 29.5 42.0 49.4 41.6 29.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 18.6 14.7 17.7 24.2 20.0 23.8 17.2 14.4 15.6 19.9
Trent 41.6 52.6 75.9 113.5 89.6 62.1 (0.1) (0.3) (0.5) 44.3 37.8 38.0 24.4 39.1 40.6 20.2 29.5 30.1 40.8
TTK Prestige 16.9 20.3 25.0 41.4 34.5 28.1 (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) 11.6 13.1 15.7 15.0 17.0 20.3 11.6 12.5 14.4 0.8
Union Bank of India 112.0 129.2 146.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.3 14.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 40.7
United Spirits 14.9 17.6 21.1 78.9 66.8 55.9 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) 16.9 17.5 18.2 23.8 24.9 25.6 16.5 19.0 19.7 13.0
UPL 0.4 16.1 34.0 1,381.6 32.1 15.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 4.2 8.4 5.1 8.7 11.2 3.7 6.5 8.4 25.0
Usha Martin 13.9 17.9 23.5 25.5 19.9 15.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) 19.2 21.0 23.2 21.0 24.0 27.3 17.5 20.3 23.2 4.6
Varun Beverages 16.2 19.2 25.8 92.6 78.2 58.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 34.9 31.6 34.0 26.6 26.2 31.2 22.4 22.6 27.1 36.7
V-Guard Industries 5.4 7.1 10.0 67.7 51.8 36.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.8 16.1 20.0 16.0 19.8 24.2 12.1 14.4 17.5 2.4
VIP Industries 2.0 8.4 13.9 255.8 61.3 36.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.3 16.7 24.5 8.5 14.9 23.4 6.1 10.6 16.0 6.5
V-Mart Retail (48.9) (16.1) 21.6 n/a n/a 105.2 0.0 (0.3) (0.4) n/a n/a 5.8 0.6 7.6 13.9 0.4 5.5 9.8 1.1
Voltas 7.6 27.5 35.2 180.0 50.0 38.9 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 4.5 14.7 16.7 10.4 20.2 22.4 6.1 10.8 11.4 27.9
VST Tillers 140.2 141.2 166.1 24.0 23.8 20.2 (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) 13.9 12.7 13.5 17.1 16.0 17.1 13.9 13.2 14.0 0.7
Welspun Corp 38.3 42.0 49.5 15.8 14.4 12.2 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) 19.3 18.0 18.4 17.1 17.3 20.6 9.7 9.7 11.7 6.1
Westlife Foodworld 4.4 5.3 7.9 195.3 162.9 110.2 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 12.0 13.8 19.2 11.0 12.4 15.0 9.4 10.4 12.4 1.8
Yes Bank 14.0 14.2 14.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.1 2.3 3.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 113.5
ZF Commercial Vehicle 202.2 239.6 297.5 67.3 56.8 45.7 (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) 14.7 15.0 16.0 19.5 20.0 21.3 16.1 16.5 17.7 1.9
Control Systems India

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Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target GDPI Operating Profit PAT Loss Ratio (%) Combined Ratio (%)

Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E

ICICI Lombard 1,660 9,847 HOLD 1,700 247,761 285,596 324,102 18,982 22,112 26,336 19,186 23,811 27,753 70.8 70.3 70.1 103.3 101.8 100.9

Star Health 545 3,839 BUY 670 152,545 177,113 203,457 7,309 10,441 12,419 8,450 11,044 13,054 66.5 65.1 65.0 96.7 95.5 94.7

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target Sales EBITDA PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)

Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E

Angel One 2,600 2,815 BUY 3,518 42,798 60,805 69,628 15,637 20,788 23,880 11,256 14,984 17,224 47.0 45.0 46.0 26.3 24.6 24.7

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target Total Revenue [NII for Bank] Oper. Profit [PPoP for Bank] PAT Oper. Profit mgn. (%) PAT margin (%)

Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC 526 1,824 HOLD 631 16,406 18,492 19,458 10,484 12,013 12,430 7,804 8,713 9,021 63.9 65.0 63.9 47.6 47.1 46.4

HDFC Asset Management 3,816 9,804 HOLD 3,275 31,634 36,926 42,206 25,364 30,502 35,396 19,427 22,345 25,996 80.2 82.6 83.9 61.4 60.5 61.6
Company

Nippon Life India Asset 611 4,635 HOLD 540 20,373 23,766 26,986 13,879 16,024 18,567 11,073 11,536 13,590 68.1 67.4 68.8 54.4 48.5 50.4
Management

UTI Asset Management 927 1,419 BUY 1,140 17,439 16,510 17,407 10,404 8,856 9,320 8,020 6,177 6,502 59.7 53.6 53.5 46.0 37.4 37.4
Company

Prudent Corporate 1,635 815 BUY 1,838 8,247 10,440 12,319 2,107 2,680 3,246 1,388 1,809 2,224 25.5 25.7 26.3 16.8 17.3 18.1
Advisory Services

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Reco Target APE [NII for BFSI] VNB [PPoP for BFSI] PAT VNB margin (%) PAT margin (%)

Name (Rs) (US$ mn) Price (Rs) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E

HDFC Life Insurance 565 14,626 BUY 705 132,910 154,280 176,801 35,010 40,748 47,636 n/a n/a n/a 26.3 26.4 26.9 n/a n/a n/a
Company Ltd

ICICI Prudential Life 1,660 9,847 HOLD 1,700 90,460 104,979 120,773 22,270 25,482 29,444 n/a n/a n/a 24.6 24.3 24.4 n/a n/a n/a
Insurance Company Ltd

SBI Life Insurance 580 10,051 HOLD 632 197,200 230,747 265,441 55,500 65,753 76,376 n/a n/a n/a 28.1 28.5 28.8 n/a n/a n/a
Company Ltd

479
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS (Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E (X) [P/BV for Bank] RoE (%) 6m Avg. Daily turnover

FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E (US $mn)

ICICI Lombard 39.1 48.5 56.5 40.5 32.6 28.0 17.2 18.5 18.7 16.2

Star Health 14.5 19.0 22.4 35.9 27.4 23.2 14.4 15.4 15.6 5.8

Angel One 134.0 166.7 191.6 18.4 14.8 12.9 43.3 34.7 27.8 20.8

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd 27.1 30.3 31.3 19.3 17.3 16.7 27.4 25.7 23.6 1.4

HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd 91.0 104.7 121.8 42.7 37.1 31.9 29.5 30.2 32.2 20.6

Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd 17.8 19.1 22.1 33.7 31.3 27.1 29.5 29.7 33.8 7.1

UTI Asset Management Company Ltd 60.3 48.6 51.2 15.1 18.7 17.7 17.3 12.2 12.4 2.4

Prudent Corporate Advisory Services Ltd 33.5 43.7 53.7 49.2 37.7 30.7 33.4 31.6 28.8 1.1

Name P/VNB (x) [BV for Bank] P/EV (x) [P/BV for Bank] RoE (%) 6m Avg. Daily turnover

FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY24 FY25E FY26E (US $mn)

HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd 33.8 29.0 24.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 36.3

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd 35.2 30.8 26.6 1.9 1.6 1.4 16.2

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd 25.0 21.1 18.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 16.2

480
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
(Rs) (US$ mn) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24

360 ONE WAM 822 3,557 20,778 20,638 29,247 6,141 8,466 8,891 5,818 6,679 8,018 29.6 41.0 30.4 28.0 32.4 27.4

3M India 30,871 4,187 33,358 39,594 3,892 6,043 2,720 4,510 11.7 15.3 n/a 8.2 11.4 n/a

Aarti Drugs 489 541 24,887 27,161 25,286 3,294 3,056 3,165 2,050 1,664 1,716 13.2 11.3 12.5 8.2 6.1 6.8

Action Construction Equipment 1,422 2,038 16,296 21,597 29,138 1,515 2,209 4,033 1,050 1,730 3,282 9.3 10.2 13.8 6.4 8.0 11.3

Aeroflex Industries 138 215 2,408 2,695 3,179 467 529 618 267 363 417 19.4 19.6 19.4 11.1 13.5 13.1

Apcotex Industries 402 251 9,569 10,799 11,246 1,398 1,585 1,139 988 1,079 539 14.6 14.7 10.1 10.3 10.0 4.8

APL Apollo Tubes 1,700 5,681 130,633 161,660 181,188 9,453 10,216 11,922 6,190 6,419 7,324 7.2 6.3 6.6 4.7 4.0 4.0

Apollo Pipes 663 330 7,841 9,145 9,771 934 680 953 498 239 424 11.9 7.4 9.8 6.3 2.6 4.3

Arvind Fashions 465 747 30,560 40,695 42,591 1,802 4,230 5,105 (2,674) 367 868 5.9 10.4 12.0 n/a 0.9 2.0

Arvind SmartSpaces 649 355 2,568 2,559 3,412 491 489 1,115 251 256 416 19.1 19.1 32.7 9.8 10.0 12.2

Ashoka Buildcon 177 599 45,915 63,723 77,267 5,025 5,337 5,765 (3,086) 6,713 4,428 10.9 8.4 7.5 n/a 10.5 5.7

Aster DM Healthcare 375 2,256 102,533 29,941 36,989 15,331 9,217 13,457 5,260 1,596 2,047 15.0 30.8 36.4 5.1 5.3 5.5

Astral 2,184 7,063 43,839 51,451 56,280 7,553 8,099 9,182 5,076 4,610 5,449 17.2 15.7 16.3 11.6 9.0 9.7

Avalon Technologies 484 383 8,407 9,447 8,672 975 1,126 625 282 525 280 11.6 11.9 7.2 3.4 5.6 3.2

AXISCADES Technologies. 514 259 6,103 8,217 9,551 706 1,419 1,332 226 (48) 333 11.6 17.3 13.9 3.7 n/a 3.5

Azad Engineering 1,394 992 1,945 2,517 3,408 623 723 1,166 291 90 588 32.0 28.7 34.2 15.0 3.6 17.3

Bajaj Consumer Care 239 412 8,655 9,381 9,516 1,785 1,414 1,582 1,745 1,399 1,588 20.6 15.1 16.6 20.2 14.9 16.7

Bharat Wire Ropes 284 233 4,107 5,891 6,218 622 1,388 1,640 137 620 972 15.1 23.6 26.4 3.3 10.5 15.6

BLS E-Services 266 291 967 2,431 3,015 69 331 418 54 229 335 7.2 13.6 13.9 5.6 9.4 11.1

Brand Concepts 714 96 862 1,632 2,506 77 212 277 6 95 109 9.0 13.0 11.0 0.7 5.8 4.3

BSE 2,689 4,382 8,635 9,539 16,179 2,911 3,359 6,276 2,449 2,057 4,565 33.7 35.2 38.8 28.4 21.6 28.2

Cartrade Tech 871 495 3,127 3,637 4,899 (1,342) 330 793 (1,213) 404 821 n/a 9.1 16.2 n/a 11.1 16.8

Century Plyboards India 656 1,755 30,083 36,308 38,860 5,308 5,587 5,208 3,132 3,840 3,253 17.6 15.4 13.4 10.4 10.6 8.4

CIE Automotive India 540 2,465 67,651 87,530 92,803 9,417 11,719 14,239 3,958 (1,362) 11,251 13.9 13.4 15.3 5.9 n/a 12.1

Computer Age Management Services 3,548 2,099 9,097 9,718 11,365 4,241 4,212 5,049 2,869 2,846 3,510 46.6 43.3 44.4 31.5 29.3 30.9

DCM Shriram 991 1,861 98,494 120,119 113,739 17,964 16,064 9,907 10,674 9,108 4,471 18.2 13.4 8.7 10.8 7.6 3.9

Dr Lal PathLabs 2,621 2,634 20,874 20,169 22,266 5,607 4,899 6,093 3,448 2,389 3,577 26.9 24.3 27.4 16.5 11.8 16.1

Elecon Engineering Co 1,151 1,555 12,119 15,297 19,374 2,464 3,389 4,745 1,391 2,343 3,492 20.3 22.2 24.5 11.5 15.3 18.0

481
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS(Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E (x) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily t/o

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 (US $mn)

360 ONE WAM 16.2 18.5 22.4 50.7 44.5 36.7 20.2 22.0 24.4 6.6

3M India 242.5 402.1 127.3 76.8 n/a (0.6) (0.5) 13.3 23.4 17.5 30.7 13.1 21.5 3.2

Aarti Drugs 22.1 18.0 18.4 22.1 27.2 26.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 21.0 14.9 13.9 19.4 14.5 14.1 14.6 11.1 11.1 1.8

Action Construction Equipment 8.8 14.5 27.6 161.2 97.9 51.6 (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) 16.4 20.7 30.5 21.0 28.0 41.7 12.6 16.9 24.3 7.5

Aeroflex Industries 2.3 3.2 3.7 59.3 43.6 37.9 0.4 0.3 (0.4) 36.8 36.2 20.5 35.7 33.3 26.1 24.7 24.0 20.2 1.4

Apcotex Industries 19.1 20.8 10.4 21.1 19.3 38.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 28.2 24.8 10.8 33.5 27.0 13.0 25.3 21.4 10.4 0.3

APL Apollo Tubes 22.3 23.1 26.4 76.2 73.5 64.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 29.8 23.5 22.2 30.2 25.2 23.8 22.3 18.1 16.7 17.5

Apollo Pipes 12.7 6.1 10.8 52.4 109.1 61.5 (0.0) 0.0 0.1 13.2 5.5 8.2 16.5 8.7 12.0 13.8 6.9 9.4 0.9

Arvind Fashions (21.8) 2.8 6.5 n/a 168.4 71.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 (42.0) 4.4 9.1 0.6 12.6 13.4 0.4 7.8 8.6 1.9

Arvind SmartSpaces 5.5 5.7 9.2 117.3 114.8 70.7 (0.3) (0.0) (0.1) 6.7 5.7 8.7 10.5 9.3 16.8 5.4 4.0 6.5 1.1

Ashoka Buildcon (11.0) 23.9 15.8 n/a 7.4 11.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 (10.8) 22.1 12.3 16.9 13.1 10.9 11.6 9.0 7.4 5.7

Aster DM Healthcare 10.5 2.8 3.6 34.6 130.0 101.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 16.4 11.3 4.5 10.6 9.3 3.5 8.1 7.0 8.0 10.4

Astral 18.6 17.0 20.3 117.7 128.2 107.9 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 23.6 18.2 18.5 29.9 23.5 23.4 22.4 17.0 17.2 16.1

Avalon Technologies 24.3 45.3 24.1 19.9 10.7 20.1 3.3 (0.2) (0.0) 48.8 16.8 5.2 24.1 16.6 6.6 16.6 12.1 5.1 1.5

AXISCADES Technologies. 5.9 (1.4) 8.2 87.5 n/a 62.5 (0.2) 0.4 0.1 7.2 (1.4) 7.2 13.4 22.8 13.5 7.1 14.7 10.7 1.0

Azad Engineering 4.9 1.5 9.9 283.0 920.1 140.2 1.5 1.2 (0.0) 27.6 5.5 13.8 20.6 15.4 20.8 16.3 13.2 18.5 0.0

Bajaj Consumer Care 11.8 9.8 11.1 20.2 24.3 21.5 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 21.5 16.9 18.8 26.1 20.4 22.7 22.7 17.9 19.7 1.8

Bharat Wire Ropes 2.0 9.1 14.1 141.4 31.0 20.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 3.1 12.3 15.8 5.7 16.1 18.6 5.4 15.3 18.0 1.3

BLS E-Services 0.9 3.7 3.7 297.6 72.5 72.1 (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) 43.5 37.6 12.5 30.9 46.2 16.6 16.2 28.5 13.5 0.0

Brand Concepts 0.6 9.0 9.8 1198.8 79.2 73.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 3.5 41.6 26.1 11.3 31.8 25.3 7.8 21.3 17.9 0.2

BSE 18.1 15.2 33.7 148.5 177.1 79.7 9.2 7.3 24.6 31.6

Cartrade Tech (25.9) 8.6 17.6 n/a 100.7 49.6 (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) (6.6) 2.0 4.0 (5.7) 3.1 4.8 (5.4) 3.0 4.4 3.0

Century Plyboards India 14.1 17.2 14.7 46.7 38.1 44.8 (0.0) 0.0 0.2 22.2 22.1 15.8 29.4 25.8 18.3 23.7 21.4 15.0 2.5

CIE Automotive India 10.7 (4.6) 29.7 50.2 n/a 18.2 0.2 0.1 (0.0) 7.6 (2.7) 18.8 9.6 13.2 16.9 7.3 9.4 12.0 4.0

Computer Age Management Services 58.6 58.1 71.6 60.6 61.1 49.5 49.3 39.8 41.4 16.4

DCM Shriram 68.1 58.1 28.5 14.6 17.1 34.7 (0.0) 0.1 0.2 21.5 16.0 7.2 24.1 18.4 8.8 19.2 14.6 7.1 1.5

Dr Lal PathLabs 41.4 28.7 42.8 63.3 91.4 61.2 (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) 24.9 15.1 20.3 29.4 18.6 25.8 25.2 16.1 22.3 7.7

Elecon Engineering Co 12.4 20.9 31.1 92.9 55.1 37.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) 14.1 20.1 24.2 16.0 23.2 29.9 11.1 18.0 24.3 4.6

482
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
(Rs) (US$ mn) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24

Electronics Mart India 217 1,003 43,493 54,457 62,854 2,919 3,360 4,494 1,039 1,227 1,839 6.7 6.2 7.2 2.4 2.3 2.9

Fedbank Financial Services 121 540 5,360 7,426 9,434 2,231 3,073 3,939 1,035 1,801 2,447 41.6 41.4 41.8 19.3 24.3 25.9

Fine Organic Industries 4,362 1,610 18,763 30,231 21,230 3,645 8,311 5,340 2,597 6,181 4,118 19.4 27.5 25.2 13.8 20.4 19.4

Finolex Industries 313 2,333 46,109 43,613 42,801 10,236 2,925 5,849 10,406 3,442 4,736 22.2 6.7 13.7 22.6 7.9 11.1

Firstsource Solutions 195 1,637 59,211 60,223 63,363 9,597 8,265 9,565 5,371 5,138 5,146 16.2 13.7 15.1 9.1 8.5 8.1

GHCL 516 594 30,521 45,509 34,465 7,363 15,187 8,997 6,501 11,416 7,939 24.1 33.4 26.1 21.3 25.1 23.0

Glenmark Life Sciences 833 1,229 21,332 21,612 22,832 6,308 6,172 6,863 4,187 4,670 4,709 29.6 28.6 30.1 19.6 21.6 20.6

GMM Pfaudler 1,287 697 25,406 31,776 34,465 2,839 4,312 4,768 760 2,153 1,608 11.2 13.6 13.8 3.0 6.8 4.7

Go Fashion (India) 988 642 4,013 6,653 7,628 1,222 2,123 2,424 356 828 827 30.5 31.9 31.8 8.9 12.4 10.8

Godawari Power and Ispat 905 1,481 53,992 57,530 54,554 18,642 11,327 13,281 14,266 7,673 9,047 34.5 19.7 24.3 26.4 13.3 16.6

Grasim Industries 2,405 19,353 945,887 1,164,571 1,309,785 204,314 215,891 271,951 76,189 69,153 61,939 21.6 18.5 20.8 8.1 5.9 4.7

Gulf Oil Lubricants India 990 586 21,916 29,991 2,855 3,428 2,111 2,323 13.0 11.4 n/a 9.6 7.7 n/a

Happiest Minds Technologies 809 1,483 10,937 14,293 16,247 2,577 3,589 3,359 1,812 2,310 2,484 23.6 25.1 20.7 16.6 16.2 15.3

Happy Forgings 1,103 1,251 8,600 11,967 2,309 3,411 1,422 2,089 26.8 28.5 n/a 16.5 17.5 n/a

IDFC First Bank 78 6,636 97,062 126,353 164,508 32,838 49,320 62,370 1,455 24,371 29,565 33.8 39.0 37.9 1.5 19.3 18.0

IFGL Refractories 621 269 12,595 13,865 16,395 1,426 1,530 1,544 775 792 817 11.3 11.0 9.4 6.2 5.7 5.0

India Shelter Finance Corp 580 748 3,115 3,964 5,729 1,789 2,160 3,384 1,284 1,553 2,476 57.4 54.5 59.1 41.2 39.2 43.2

Indo Count Industries 378 901 28,420 30,116 35,571 4,341 4,543 5,590 3,586 2,768 3,379 15.3 15.1 15.7 12.6 9.2 9.5

INOX India 1,273 1,391 7,827 9,659 11,312 1,676 2,044 2,503 1,305 1,527 1,960 21.4 21.2 22.1 16.7 15.8 17.3

Jammu & Kashmir Bank 130 1,725 39,112 47,453 52,037 10,625 18,585 22,769 5,016 11,974 17,673 27.2 39.2 43.8 12.8 25.2 34.0

Karnataka Bank 216 980 24,910 31,851 32,987 16,340 22,082 21,633 5,086 11,802 13,063 65.6 69.3 65.6 20.4 37.1 39.6

Kaynes Technology India 3,331 2,563 7,063 11,261 18,046 937 1,683 2,542 417 952 1,833 13.3 14.9 14.1 5.9 8.5 10.2

Kfin Technologies 752 1,548 6,395 7,200 8,375 2,878 2,980 3,666 1,485 1,957 2,460 45.0 41.4 43.8 23.2 27.2 29.4

Kirloskar Pneumatic Co 1,143 892 10,212 12,393 13,226 1,391 1,657 2,024 849 1,086 1,417 13.6 13.4 15.3 8.3 8.8 10.7

KNR Construction 272 922 32,726 37,438 6,777 7,217 3,818 4,988 20.7 19.3 n/a 11.7 13.3 n/a

Krsnaa Diagnostics 585 228 4,555 4,871 6,196 1,333 1,240 1,466 315 684 621 29.3 25.5 23.7 6.9 14.0 10.0

Landmark Cars 705 351 29,765 33,824 32,879 1,747 2,380 2,176 662 853 572 5.9 7.0 6.6 2.2 2.5 1.7

Laurus Labs 444 2,880 48,885 59,207 49,162 14,224 15,922 7,775 8,324 7,901 1,606 29.1 26.9 15.8 17.0 13.3 3.3

483
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS(Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E (x) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily t/o

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 (US $mn)

Electronics Mart India 3.5 3.2 4.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 19.1 13.8 14.4 14.2 12.2 12.9 13.4 11.6 12.3 1.3

Fedbank Financial Services 35.9 42.1 61.2 3.4 2.9 2.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 10.4 14.4 13.5 NA NA NA 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.1

Fine Organic Industries 84.7 201.6 134.3 51.5 21.6 32.5 (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) 30.7 49.4 23.8 39.5 65.5 31.5 32.7 55.7 28.1 2.2

Finolex Industries 10.7 5.6 7.7 29.2 56.3 40.8 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 18.8 7.8 9.0 25.6 8.6 10.8 21.2 7.4 9.7 4.7

Firstsource Solutions 7.7 7.3 7.3 25.5 26.7 26.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 18.4 16.1 14.6 16.0 11.6 13.9 13.5 9.9 11.9 7.3

GHCL 68.2 119.4 82.9 7.6 4.3 6.2 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) 24.6 33.1 22.9 16.9 32.7 19.9 14.5 28.1 17.9 1.9

Glenmark Life Sciences 35.6 38.1 38.4 23.4 21.9 21.7 (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 29.8 22.3 21.1 30.7 28.7 26.9 26.5 24.3 22.8 1.6

GMM Pfaudler 52.0 47.9 35.8 24.7 26.9 36.0 (0.4) (0.1) (0.1) 16.3 32.2 18.0 9.3 18.8 16.1 6.1 11.9 10.7 3.5

Go Fashion (India) 6.6 15.3 15.3 149.8 64.4 64.5 (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) 9.9 17.3 14.7 12.6 19.3 16.6 11.0 16.4 14.5 1.3

Godawari Power and Ispat 115.0 59.5 73.6 7.9 15.2 12.3 (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) 55.8 21.4 21.9 49.3 26.0 27.4 42.8 22.2 24.0 4.6

Grasim Industries 115.7 105.0 93.3 20.8 22.9 25.8 0.4 0.6 0.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 6.9 7.4 7.0 6.2 6.6 6.3 22.2

Gulf Oil Lubricants India 43.0 47.3 23.0 20.9 n/a (0.2) (0.2) 22.1 20.9 23.1 23.2 18.2 18.1 2.4

Happiest Minds Technologies 12.4 15.9 16.7 65.1 50.8 48.5 (1.0) (0.8) (0.8) 29.9 30.7 21.4 32.1 34.8 20.2 22.0 22.9 14.3 5.3

Happy Forgings 15.1 22.2 73.1 49.7 n/a 0.3 0.2 19.8 23.5 21.3 25.7 19.8 23.8 0.0

IDFC First Bank 33.8 38.8 45.4 2.3 2.0 1.7 0.8 10.4 10.2 0.1 1.1 1.1 45.4

IFGL Refractories 21.5 22.0 22.7 28.9 28.2 27.4 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) 8.5 8.2 7.9 10.3 9.6 8.7 8.7 8.2 7.5 0.4

India Shelter Finance Corp 123.1 141.7 214.7 4.7 4.1 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.5 12.8 13.4 14.0 NA NA NA 4.5 4.1 4.9 0.0

Indo Count Industries 18.2 14.0 17.1 20.8 27.0 22.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 24.9 16.4 17.4 21.6 14.7 17.6 19.2 13.3 15.7 2.6

INOX India 14.4 16.8 21.6 88.5 75.6 58.9 (0.6) (0.6) (0.4) 29.9 29.0 32.7 34.6 36.7 41.9 22.3 20.4 22.5 0.0

Jammu & Kashmir Bank 75.7 84.0 99.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 7.8 15.2 18.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 9.1

Karnataka Bank 213.2 246.6 274.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 8.0 16.5 14.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 5.9

Kaynes Technology India 7.2 16.4 31.5 464.7 203.5 105.7 0.8 (0.3) (0.5) 24.3 16.4 10.6 24.2 21.1 14.4 16.2 15.8 12.2 7.4

Kfin Technologies 9.4 11.7 14.4 79.6 64.5 52.2 30.0 25.8 24.5 8.9

Kirloskar Pneumatic Co 13.2 16.8 22.0 86.8 67.9 52.0 (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) 13.6 14.9 16.5 17.8 19.3 21.1 11.9 13.3 14.8 1.8

KNR Construction 13.6 17.7 20.1 15.4 n/a (0.1) (0.1) 18.6 20.0 28.1 24.1 18.7 17.3 4.2

Krsnaa Diagnostics 22.9 19.3 17.0 25.6 30.3 34.4 (0.3) (0.1) 0.1 (14.0) (11.8) (3.7) (4.4) (7.4) 0.1 (3.7) (6.5) 0.1 0.9

Landmark Cars 17.9 21.3 13.8 39.4 33.1 51.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 31.2 23.4 11.4 19.7 20.5 12.2 11.9 13.9 9.0 1.5

Laurus Labs 15.5 14.7 3.0 28.7 30.3 148.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 28.0 21.4 3.9 24.3 21.5 6.5 18.6 17.4 5.4 11.1

484
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
(Rs) (US$ mn) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24

Laxmi Organic Industries 252 836 30,843 27,966 28,650 3,825 2,566 2,839 2,574 1,246 1,205 12.4 9.2 9.9 8.3 4.5 4.2

Life Insurance Corporation of India* 1,044 79,463 504 567 570 76 92 96 15.1 16.2 16.8 n/a n/a n/a

Lumax Industries 2,684 302 17,513 23,195 1,350 2,075 407 1,031 7.7 8.9 n/a 2.3 4.4 n/a

Mahindra Logistics 442 384 41,408 51,283 55,060 1,843 2,598 2,290 176 263 (586) 4.5 5.1 4.2 0.4 0.5 n/a

MapMYIndia 1,978 1,289 2,004 2,815 3,794 862 1,179 1,562 870 1,080 1,317 43.0 41.9 41.2 43.4 38.4 34.7

Mindspace Business Parks REIT 351 2,503 17,260 22,392 23,806 13,651 15,376 17,512 5,084 4,204 5,615 79.1 68.7 73.6 29.5 18.8 23.6

Motherson Sumi Wiring India 68 3,624 56,350 70,680 83,283 7,303 7,920 10,132 4,107 4,870 6,383 13.0 11.2 12.2 7.3 6.9 7.7

Motilal Oswal Financial Services 2,275 4,088 43,164 41,971 71,305 16,641 13,006 31,145 13,125 9,348 24,456 38.6 31.0 43.7 30.4 22.3 34.3

Nelcast 137 144 9,273 12,640 12,669 581 794 923 142 297 544 6.3 6.3 7.3 1.5 2.4 4.3

NIIT Learning Systems 446 726 11,323 13,618 15,535 2,916 2,921 3,622 2,021 1,922 2,132 25.8 21.4 23.3 17.8 14.1 13.7

Nitin Spinners 329 222 26,923 24,067 29,056 6,517 2,971 3,803 3,308 1,648 1,347 24.2 12.3 13.1 12.3 6.8 4.6

Nuvoco Vistas Corp 317 1,361 93,180 105,862 107,329 14,967 12,104 16,237 321 159 1,474 16.1 11.4 15.1 0.3 0.1 1.4

Oberoi Realty 1,805 7,901 26,790 41,738 44,795 11,813 21,117 24,098 10,471 19,046 19,266 44.1 50.6 53.8 39.1 45.6 43.0

PDS 442 702 88,282 105,770 103,726 3,226 4,592 3,920 2,928 3,268 2,027 3.7 4.3 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.0

Phoenix Mills/The 3,153 6,782 14,835 26,383 39,777 7,339 15,189 21,768 2,374 13,350 10,992 49.5 57.6 54.7 16.0 50.6 27.6

Piramal Enterprises 830 2,245 36,290 50,460 39,710 24,570 28,310 11,970 19,990 99,700 (16,820) 67.7 56.1 30.1 55.1 197.6 n/a

PNC Infratech Ltd 548 1,691 63,055 70,608 76,992 7,872 9,539 12,774 4,478 6,115 8,498 12.5 13.5 16.6 7.1 8.7 11.0

Prestige Estates Projects 1,618 7,810 63,895 83,150 78,771 15,335 20,863 24,984 11,500 9,418 13,741 24.0 25.1 31.7 18.0 11.3 17.4

Prince Pipes & Fittings 625 832 26,498 27,034 25,609 4,156 2,503 3,074 2,494 1,214 1,825 15.7 9.3 12.0 9.4 4.5 7.1

Privi Speciality Chemicals 1,082 509 14,037 16,078 17,522 1,938 1,859 3,250 935 213 954 13.8 11.6 18.5 6.7 1.3 5.4

Protean eGov Technologies 1,147 558 6,909 7,422 8,820 1,238 1,180 894 1,476 1,062 952 17.9 15.9 10.1 21.4 14.3 10.8

Rategain Travel Technologies 722 1,025 3,666 5,651 9,570 306 847 1,897 94 684 1,454 8.3 15.0 19.8 2.6 12.1 15.2

RBL Bank 254 1,850 40,267 49,982 60,429 27,453 22,024 30,308 (747) 8,827 11,679 68.2 44.1 50.2 n/a 17.7 19.3

Rishabh Instruments Pvt 467 215 4,703 5,695 730 761 496 497 15.5 13.4 n/a 10.6 8.7 n/a

Rossari Biotech 690 459 14,830 16,559 18,306 1,834 2,230 2,498 977 1,073 1,307 12.4 13.5 13.6 6.6 6.5 7.1

RR Kabel 1,874 2,543 43,859 55,992 - 3,032 3,223 - 2,097 1,889 - 6.9 5.8 n/a 4.8 3.4 n/a

Sai Silks (Kalamandir) 176 324 11,293 13,515 13,736 1,331 2,125 2,120 577 976 1,008 11.8 15.7 15.4 5.1 7.2 7.3

SBFC Finance 83 1,069 3,101 4,639 6,692 1,228 2,334 3,631 645 1,497 2,370 39.6 50.3 54.3 20.8 32.3 35.4
Note: *For LIC Sales is APE, EBITDA is VNB, EBITDA Margin is VNB Margin, EPS is Price/VNB, P/E is P/EV. (For LIC unit is Billion)

485
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS(Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E (x) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily t/o

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 (US $mn)

Laxmi Organic Industries 9.8 4.7 4.4 25.8 53.6 57.6 (0.0) 0.2 (0.2) 22.1 9.2 7.5 25.2 11.2 9.3 16.4 7.9 6.8 3.8

Life Insurance Corporation of India* 72.0 59.7 57.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 56.0

Lumax Industries 61.9 116.1 43.4 23.1 n/a 0.8 0.7 12.2 20.2 9.2 13.6 5.8 8.3 0.3

Mahindra Logistics 2.4 3.6 (8.1) 181.5 121.3 n/a 0.3 1.1 1.3 3.2 4.7 (11.1) 6.3 7.2 2.8 3.1 3.8 1.5 2.0

MapMYIndia 16.1 20.0 24.4 122.9 99.0 81.2 (0.4) (0.6) (0.4) 21.6 21.9 21.9 28.4 27.4 28.4 25.3 24.0 24.6 3.1

Mindspace Business Parks REIT 8.6 7.1 9.5 40.9 49.5 37.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 3.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 5.6 6.3 4.8 5.4 6.0 0.6

Motherson Sumi Wiring India 1.5 1.5 2.0 45.2 44.2 33.7 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) 52.2 39.8 42.5 57.0 42.7 46.8 30.1 24.9 28.9 7.6

Motilal Oswal Financial Services 88.0 63.2 164.1 25.2 35.1 13.5 23.0 14.9 27.9 6.8

Nelcast 1.6 3.4 6.3 84.1 40.2 22.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 3.3 6.5 11.0 6.4 9.1 9.6 5.0 7.2 7.6 0.3

NIIT Learning Systems 17.5 14.0 15.2 25.5 31.9 29.3 (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) 29.2 24.4 31.4 28.4 19.6 17.9 1.4

Nitin Spinners 58.8 29.3 24.0 5.6 11.2 13.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 46.0 17.3 12.4 34.4 11.1 11.1 32.3 10.6 10.7 0.7

Nuvoco Vistas Corp 0.9 11.8 4.1 352.4 26.8 76.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 4.8 1.7 3.7 1.7 4.8 3.1 1.4 3.9 1.9

Oberoi Realty 28.8 52.4 53.0 62.7 34.5 34.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.6 16.8 14.8 9.7 14.5 16.2 8.7 12.7 14.0 16.7

PDS 22.2 24.6 15.4 19.9 18.0 28.7 (0.1) (0.2) 0.2 38.5 33.9 18.3 23.0 24.7 16.2 11.8 13.2 9.3 0.7

Phoenix Mills/The 13.3 74.8 61.5 237.1 42.2 51.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.1 17.8 12.3 5.3 9.7 12.1 4.8 8.8 11.1 18.5

Piramal Enterprises 1543.6 1301.4 1182.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.6 2.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 16.4

PNC Infratech Ltd 17.5 23.8 33.1 31.4 23.0 16.5 (0.3) (0.1) (0.4) 14.3 16.8 19.5 17.7 18.9 22.3 14.0 15.5 18.2 6.2

Prestige Estates Projects 28.7 23.5 34.3 56.4 68.9 47.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 13.5 9.9 12.9 8.4 10.3 11.9 4.6 5.7 3.2 16.8

Prince Pipes & Fittings 22.5 11.0 16.5 27.8 56.9 37.9 0.1 (0.1) (0.0) 21.6 9.2 12.5 27.0 12.2 14.7 19.9 9.3 11.7 2.0

Privi Speciality Chemicals 23.9 5.4 24.4 45.2 198.6 44.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 12.2 2.6 10.9 10.0 5.3 11.6 8.2 4.3 9.6 0.5

Protean eGov Technologies 36.5 26.3 23.5 31.4 43.6 48.7 (0.3) (0.0) (0.1) 20.3 12.9 10.7 24.8 16.7 14.1 20.1 13.5 11.3 6.7

Rategain Travel Technologies 0.8 5.8 12.3 908.9 124.4 58.5 (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) 2.2 10.3 13.5 3.4 9.8 17.0 2.8 8.0 14.2 4.8

RBL Bank 210.5 226.4 244.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 (0.6) 6.7 8.2 (0.1) 0.8 0.9 30.7

Rishabh Instruments Pvt 8.5 8.5 55.1 55.0 n/a (0.0) (0.0) 15.3 13.2 14.5 13.4 11.6 10.9 1.3

Rossari Biotech 17.7 19.4 23.7 38.9 35.5 29.1 (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 16.1 12.5 13.3 21.3 16.3 17.3 16.2 12.6 13.4 1.1

RR Kabel 21.9 19.7 0.0 85.5 94.9 n/a 0.4 0.3 18.3 14.2 18.1 15.8 18.2 14.3 4.5

Sai Silks (Kalamandir) 4.8 8.1 8.1 36.6 21.6 21.6 0.7 0.7 (0.1) 21.2 28.0 13.8 18.1 22.7 15.2 14.0 17.4 13.1 1.4

SBFC Finance 16.0 19.4 25.9 5.2 4.3 3.2 2.3 2.2 1.4 5.2 9.9 10.5 NA NA NA 1.5 2.9 3.7 4.0
Note: *For LIC Sales is APE, EBITDA is VNB, EBITDA Margin is VNB Margin, EPS is Price/VNB, P/E is P/EV. (For LIC unit is Billion)

486
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

(Rs mn) Price Mkt cap Sales [NII for Bank] EBITDA [PPoP for Bank] PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
(Rs) (US$ mn) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24

SG Mart 457 614 0 16 26,829 (2) (8) 618 3 2 609 n/a n/a 2.3 815.5 12.4 2.3

Shree Renuka Sugars 42 1,066 64,326 90,207 4,282 6,338 (1,367) (1,967) 6.7 7.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Shriram Pistons & Ring 1,920 1,018 20,647 26,093 30,893 3,045 4,604 6,420 1,636 2,935 4,426 14.7 17.6 20.8 7.9 11.2 14.3

Shyam Metalics & Energy. 631 2,121 103,940 126,102 131,952 25,997 14,859 15,700 17,242 8,484 10,290 25.0 11.8 11.9 16.6 6.7 7.8

SIS 415 720 100,591 113,458 122,614 4,985 4,915 5,188 3,259 3,465 1,900 5.0 4.3 4.2 3.2 3.1 1.5

Sonata Software 519 1,751 55,534 74,491 86,131 4,638 6,041 7,274 3,764 4,519 3,085 8.4 8.1 8.4 6.8 6.1 3.6

SP Apparels 595 180 8,594 10,779 10,874 1,517 1,425 1,578 846 825 897 17.7 13.2 14.5 9.8 7.7 8.2

Steel Strips Wheels 222 419 35,600 40,405 43,571 4,528 4,428 4,652 2,055 1,938 1,947 12.7 11.0 10.7 5.8 4.8 4.5

Sterling Tools 370 160 5,096 7,720 9,320 666 975 1,078 255 479 554 13.1 12.6 11.6 5.0 6.2 5.9

Stove Kraft. 495 197 11,364 12,838 - 948 990 - 562 358 - 8.3 7.7 n/a 4.9 2.8 n/a

Sula Vineyards 496 504 4,244 5,165 5,677 1,133 1,575 1,759 521 841 933 26.7 30.5 31.0 12.3 16.3 16.4

Supriya Lifescience 362 351 5,301 4,609 5,704 2,140 1,289 1,729 1,518 899 1,191 40.4 28.0 30.3 28.6 19.5 20.9

Symphony 1,071 889 10,390 11,880 11,560 1,610 1,380 1,680 1,210 1,160 1,480 15.5 11.6 14.5 11.6 9.8 12.8

Tilaknagar Industries Limited 232 538 7,834 11,644 13,940 1,121 1,372 1,854 320 722 1,410 14.3 11.8 13.3 4.1 6.2 10.1

Tips Industries Limited 433 669 1,356 1,868 2,416 862 1,019 1,585 646 765 1,272 63.6 54.6 65.6 47.6 41.0 52.6

Vardhman Special Steels 317 310 13,685 17,350 16,614 1,737 1,413 1,424 1,008 1,004 916 12.7 8.1 8.6 7.4 5.8 5.5

Vimta Labs 504 135 2,783 3,182 3,183 793 950 871 416 483 414 28.5 29.9 27.4 14.9 15.2 13.0

Vinati Organics 1,775 2,215 16,155 20,727 19,000 4,343 5,712 4,697 3,468 4,192 3,230 26.9 27.6 24.7 21.5 20.2 17.0

Wonderla Holidays. 851 579 1,286 4,292 4,830 213 2,115 2,272 (95) 1,489 1,580 16.5 49.3 47.0 n/a 34.7 32.7

Yasho Industries 1,821 250 6,127 6,716 5,936 930 1,150 998 523 679 579 15.2 17.1 16.8 8.5 10.1 9.8

Yatra Online 135 255 1,981 3,802 4,223 (89) 367 147 (308) 66 (51) n/a 9.6 3.5 n/a 1.7 n/a

Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Pvt 302 445 3,713 5,535 7,756 599 481 706 419 229 440 16.1 8.7 9.1 11.3 4.1 5.7

Zydus Wellness 1,730 1,325 20,091 22,548 23,278 3,448 3,372 3,082 3,089 3,104 2,669 17.2 15.0 13.2 15.4 13.8 11.5

487
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

Valuation summary (Companies not under B&K Coverage)

Name EPS(Rs) [BV for Bank] P/E (x) [P/BV for Bank] Net Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoA (%) 6m Avg. Daily t/o

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24 (US $mn)

SG Mart 0.0 0.0 5.5 n/a n/a 83.6 (0.6) (1.0) 0.1 2.6 1.6 11.1 3.5 2.2 14.5 3.2 2.1 12.4 0.9

Shree Renuka Sugars (0.6) (0.9) n/a n/a n/a (8.5) (6.1) (21.5) (26.4) 6.8 9.9 4.1 6.6 6.4

Shriram Pistons & Ring 37.1 66.6 100.5 51.7 28.8 19.1 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 13.6 21.1 25.6 16.5 23.9 27.2 13.0 19.3 22.3 4.2

Shyam Metalics & Energy. 67.6 33.3 40.3 9.3 19.0 15.6 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 36.4 13.1 12.2 42.1 14.4 10.7 34.5 11.6 8.4 9.0

SIS 22.1 23.7 13.1 18.8 17.5 31.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 16.7 15.7 8.0 12.3 9.9 9.4 8.7 7.2 6.8 0.7

Sonata Software 27.2 16.3 11.1 19.1 31.8 46.7 (0.8) (0.1) (0.1) 37.6 37.7 22.8 43.2 33.4 30.8 23.0 17.8 15.2 7.3

SP Apparels 32.9 32.9 35.7 18.1 18.1 16.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 14.1 12.6 12.5 14.9 13.9 14.0 12.8 12.0 12.2 0.4

Steel Strips Wheels 13.1 12.4 12.4 16.9 17.9 17.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 24.2 18.6 15.1 19.7 18.5 16.7 15.3 13.7 12.9 1.2

Sterling Tools 7.3 12.3 15.3 50.9 30.0 24.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.6 11.8 13.0 8.5 12.7 13.9 7.8 11.2 11.9 0.5

Stove Kraft. 17.0 10.8 0.0 29.1 45.7 n/a 0.2 0.3 16.9 9.3 17.8 12.0 0.0 11.3 7.8 0.0 0.8

Sula Vineyards 6.8 10.2 11.1 73.0 48.7 44.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 14.9 18.1 17.2 14.3 19.3 18.6 12.2 16.5 15.9 8.3

Supriya Lifescience 18.9 11.2 14.8 19.5 32.9 24.8 (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) 34.3 13.7 15.7 41.2 18.1 15.6 35.8 16.3 13.7 2.3

Symphony 17.3 16.6 21.5 61.9 64.6 49.9 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) 15.1 13.5 18.4 16.7 14.4 18.6 13.7 11.7 14.7 1.8

Tilaknagar Industries Limited 2.0 3.9 7.3 115.0 59.5 31.7 3.9 0.4 0.1 82.2 23.4 24.8 11.8 14.2 20.4 8.9 11.1 16.4 2.2

Tips Industries Limited 5.0 6.0 9.9 86.1 72.6 43.7 (0.3) (0.2) (0.8) 63.4 64.1 80.6 64.3 77.0 86.5 60.1 62.4 64.3 2.9

Vardhman Special Steels 5.4 12.4 12.3 58.2 25.5 25.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 19.9 16.8 13.5 25.2 19.6 17.3 20.4 15.6 13.7 0.6

Vimta Labs 18.8 21.8 18.7 26.8 23.1 27.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 19.4 18.7 13.8 20.0 20.5 15.4 19.8 20.2 14.9 0.4

Vinati Organics 33.7 40.8 31.2 52.6 43.5 57.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) 20.6 20.7 13.8 25.2 26.2 17.5 23.5 24.2 16.1 1.9

Wonderla Holidays. (1.7) 26.3 27.9 n/a 32.3 30.5 (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) (1.2) 17.0 15.5 (1.4) 20.9 19.1 (1.4) 20.1 18.3 1.3

Yasho Industries 45.9 59.5 50.8 39.7 30.6 35.8 0.9 1.3 1.9 41.5 33.0 21.8 28.0 22.3 12.1 21.5 18.7 11.2 0.7

Yatra Online (2.0) 0.4 (0.3) n/a 321.3 n/a (0.4) 0.6 (0.1) (27.5) 4.9 (1.1) (7.7) 13.7 3.6 (2.9) 5.8 2.2 1.0

Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Pvt 3.4 1.9 3.6 88.4 161.8 84.0 (17.9) 2.1 0.1 (170.5) 101.2 14.1 123.7 33.9 17.4 75.2 26.3 15.8 6.4

Zydus Wellness 48.6 48.8 42.0 35.6 35.5 41.2 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 6.6 6.2 5.1 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.0 0.9

488
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

B&K Universe Profile – by AMFI Definition

140
120
120

no. of companies
100 86
80 72

60
40
20
0
Top 100 Next 150 Residual
(Large Cap) (Mid Cap) (Small Cap)

B&K Securities is the trade name of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.

B&K Investment Ratings

LARGE CAP (Market Cap > USD 2 bn) MID & SMALL CAP (Market Cap < USD 2 bn)
BUY >+15% >+20%
HOLD +15% to -10 % +20% to -15 %
SELL <-10% <-15%
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489
Trinity India – 2024 – Post Conference Notes

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