UNIT TWO

CLIMATE CHANGE
➣MAIN CONTENTS
2.1. Basic concepts of climate change
2.2. Trends in global climate change
2.3. Natural and human induced climate change
2.4. Consequences of climate change
2.5. Adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change
2.6. International conventions and agreements on climate change
2.7. Pillars of Climate Resilient Green Economy of Ethiopia change
 Introduction
➽Geography has much to contribute to understanding of
the complex spatial dimensions of climate change,
including the observed and anticipated geographical
differentiation in potential impacts and vulnerability.
Therefore,
➜this unit addresses about basic concepts of climate
change such as global climate change, cause and
consequences of climate change, adaptation and
mitigation strategies, international conventions and
agreements on climate change and finally the climate
resilient green economy
 2.1. Basic Concepts of Climate Change
➣Climate refers to the conditions of the atmosphere in a certain place
over many years.
◎For example, the climate in Gondar is cold in the winter, and the
climate in Gambella is warm and humid all year long.
◊The climate in one area, like the Horn of Africa, is called a regional
climate
➥The average climate around the world is called global climate.
◉When scientists talk about global climate change, they are talkin
g about the global climate and a pattern of change that’s happening
over many yeare
➣One of the most important trends that scientists look at is the
average temperature of the Earth, which has been increasing for many
years. This is called global warming.
➽Previous assessments have already shown
through multiple lines of evidence that the
climate is changing across our planet, largely
as a result of human activities.
➣ The most convincing evidence of climate
change derives from observations of the
atmosphere, land and oceans.
➥A clear evidence from in situ observations
and ice core records shows that the
atmospheric concentrations of important
green-house gases such as carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)
have increased over the last few centuries
2.2. Trends in Global Climate Change
➣The Earth’s climate has always changed and evolved. Some of
these changes have been due to natural causes, but others can be
attributed to human activities such as deforestation, atmospheric
emissions from industry and transport, which resulted in the
storage of gases and aerosols in the atmosphere
◉They are known as greenhouse gases (GHGs) because they trap
heat and raise air temperatures near the ground, acting like a
greenhouse on the surface of the planet.
➥Global warming has begun to affect the sea level, snow
cover, ice sheets and rainfall.
➜Shifts in regional patterns of climate marked by rising air
temperatures are already affecting watersheds and ecosystems in
many parts of the world.
 2.3. Natural and Human Induced Climate Chang
➜One of the great environmental concerns of our time is the
climate change now unfolding as a result of greenhouse gases
being added to our atmosphere.
➣ Glaciers are melting, sea level is rising, precipitation is
becoming more intense in many areas, and global temperature is
Increasing each decade.
➽Climate change, whether driven by natural or human forcing,
can lead to changes in the likelihood of the occurrence or
strength of extreme weather and climate events or both.
➣◎◉The primary cause of climate changes over the last few
decades is human (anthropogenic) activity, mainly the burning of
fossil fuels.
➽Inthis chapter, we will first look at the evidence for climate
change in the past; then we will investigate the causes of climate
change from both natural processes and human activity.
Climate Change Caused by Natural Events
➥What are the natural causes of climate change?
➣There are three “external” causes of climate change.
These are changes in:
1. Incoming solar radiation;
2. The composition of the atmosphere; and
3. The Earth’s surface.
➽Natural phenomena can cause climate to change by
all the three mechanisms, whereas human activities
can change climate by the second and third
mechanisms.
➥Part of the complexity of the climate system is the
intricate interrelationship of the elements involved.
◉For example, if temperature changes, many other
elements may be altered as well.
➜The interactions among the atmosphere, the oceans, and
the ice are extremely complex and the number of possible
interactions among these systems is enormous.
◊No climatic element within the system is isolated from the
others, which is why the complete picture of the Earth’s
changing climate is not totally understood.
◎With this in mind, we will first investigate how feedback
systems work; then we will consider some of the current
theories as to why the Earth’s climate changes naturally .
 Variations in the Earth's Orbit:
➽A theory ascribing climatic changes to variations in the
Earth’s orbit is the Milankovitch theory, named after
the name of astronomer Milutin Milankovitch, who first
proposed the idea in the 1930s.
➥ The basic idea of this theory is that, as the Earth travels
through space, three separate cyclic movements combine to
produce variations in the amount of solar energy that
reaches the Earth.
➣The Milankovitch cycles that combine to produce variations
in solar radiation received at the Earth’s surface include
◉ Changes in the shape (eccentricity) of the Earth’s orbit
about the sun.
◎Precession of the Earth’s axis of rotation, or wobbling.
◉Changes in the tilt (obliquity) of the Earth’s axis.
➣What are the Milankovitch Cycles? Natural global warming,
and cooling, is considered to be initiated by Milankovitch
cycles.
➥These orbital and axial variations influence the initiation of
climate change in long-term natural cycles of ‘ice ages’ and
‘warm periods’ known as ‘glacial’ and ‘interglacial’
periods.
➽Our current climate forcing shows we are outside of that
natu acycle forcing range
 Variations in Solar Output
➥Solar energy measurements made by sophisticated instruments
aboard satellites show that the sun’s energy output (called brightness)
varies slightly by a fraction of 1 percent with sunspot activity.
➣Sunspots are huge magnetic storms on the sun that show up as
cooler (darker) regions on the sun’s surface.
They occur in cycles, with the number and size reaching a
maximum approximately every 11 years.

Atmospheric Particles
➥Microscopic liquid and solid particles (aerosols) that enter the
atmosphere from both natural and human-induced sources can have
an effect on climate.
◎The effect of these particles on the climate is exceedingly complex,
and depends upon a number of factors, such as the particle’s size,
shape, color, chemical composition, and vertical distribution above
the surface.
 Particles near the surface:
➽Particles can enter the atmosphere in a variety of natural
ways.
◉For example, wildfires can abundant amounts of tiny smoke
particles, and dust storms sweep tons of fine particles into the
atmosphere.
➜ Flaming volcanoes can release significant quantities of
sulfurrich aerosols into the lower atmosphere.
Volcanic eruptions
Volcanic eruptions can have a major impact on climate.
During volcanic eruptions, fine particles of ash and dust (as
well as gases) can be ejected into the atmosphere
 Human (Anthropogenic) Induced Climate Change
➽Aerosols Injected into the LoweAtmosphere
➥The human-induced sources include emissions from factories,
autos, trucks, aircraft, power plants, home furnaces and fireplaces,
to name a few.
➣Many aerosols are not injected directly into the atmosphere, but
form when gases convert to particles
➽Land use changes
➣All climate models predict that, as fossil fuels continue to spew
greenhouse gases into the air, the climate will change and the
Earth’s surface will warm.
➣ But are humans changing the climate by other activities as well?
◊ Modification of Earth’s surface taking place right now could potentially
be influencing the immediate climate of certain regions.
◊ For example, studies show that about half the rainfall in the Amazon
River Basin is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and
through transpiration from the leaves of trees.
◊ Consequently, clearing large areas of tropical rain forests in South
America to create open areas for farms and cattle ranges, as is happening
now, will most likely cause a decrease in evaporative cooling.
Increasing Greenhouse Gases Emission
➥Carbon dioxide is one of a greenhouse gas that strongly
absorbs infrared radiation and plays a major role in the warming of the
lower atmosphere
◊Everything else being equal, the more CO2in the atmosphere, the
warmer the surface air is. We also know that CO2 has been increasing
steadily in the atmosphere, primarily due to human activities, such as the
burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas
◉Moreover, Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Methane (CH4) are greenhouse gases
that causes for climate change
 2.4. Consequences of Climate Change
➣Climate models predict that land areas will warm
more rapidly than the global average, particularly in
the northern high latitudes in winter

Precipitation
➣Changes in precipitation and drought may be just as
important as changes in temperature over the coming
decades.
➥As with temperature, changes in precipitation will not
be evenly distributed, as some areas will tend to get
more precipitation and others less.
➥Since the middle of the twentieth century, precipitation
has generally increased over the middle- and high-
latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while
decreasing over some subtropical land areas.
➥In many areas, there has also been an increase in the
intensity of the heaviest precipitation events during the last
50 years or so.
➣The changes in precipitation adversely affect by placing
added stress on agriculture.
Even in places where average annual precipitation does not
change, it is possible that rainfall and snowfall will be
focused in more intense wet spells, with longer dry periods
in between
 Sea Level Rise
➜Another major consequence of climate change is an
increase in sea level, as land-based ice sheets and
glaciers retreat, the oceans continue to expand and get
warm.
➜During the twentieth century, average global sea level
rose by about 17 cm.
➜Sea level rise will be a growing issue in the coming
decades for the many millions of people who live near
coastlines around the world.
 Effects on Polar RegionIn Polar Region
➥In Polar Regions, areas of the world, rising temperatures
produce complex interactions among temperature,
precipitation, and wind patterns.
◉Hence, in Antarctica, more snow might actually fall in the
warmer air
➥This situation could allow snow to build up across the
interior, although itmaybe counterbalanced by an increase in
melting already taking place along the Antarctic coastline.
◉ Over Greenland, which is experiencing rapid melting of ice
and snow, any increase in precipitation will likely be offset by
rapid melting, and so the ice sheet is expected to continue to
shrink.
 Effects on ecosystems
➥Increasing levels of CO2 in a warmer world could have
many other consequences.
◉For example, greater amounts of CO2 can be expected
to act as a “fertilizer” for some plants, accelerating their
growth, although this process can slow over time if water,
nitrogen, and other nutrients were not plentiful enough to
sustain the growth.
➣In some ecosystems, certain plant species could
become so dominant that others are eliminated
 2.5. ADAPTATiON AND MiTiGATiON
STRATEGiES TO CLiMATE CHANGE
➽Climate change is one of the all-encompassing global
environmental changes likely to have deleterious effects on
natural and human systems, economies and infrastructure.
➜The risks associated with it call for a broad spectrum of
policy responses and strategies at the local, regional, national
and global level.
➥ The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) highlights two fundamental response
strategies: mitigation and adaptation.
◉While mitigation seeks to limit climate change by reducing
the emissions of greenhouse gases and by enhancing ‘sink’
opportunities, adaptation aims to alleviate the adverse impacts
through a wide-range of system-specific actions.
 Climate Change Adaptation
➣According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, adaptation
to climate change refers to, “adjustments in ecological, social or
economic systems in response to actual or expected stimuli and their
effects or impacts
Typess of Adaptation
➥Dpending on its timing, goal and motive of its implementation,
adaptation can either be reactive or anticipatory, private or public,
planned or autonomous.
➜Adaptations can also be short/long term, localized or widespread
(IPCC 2001)
➣In unmanaged natural systems, adaptation is autonomous and
reactive, and is the means by which species respond to changed
conditions.
➣In these situations, adaptation assessment is essentially equivalent to
natural system impact assessment.
Reactive or Anticipatory Adaptation
➥Reactive adaptation is the one that takes place after the initial
impacts of climate change have occurred.
◉Anticipatory adaptation takes place before impacts become apparent.
◉In natural systems, there is no anticipatory adaptation
Private or Public Adaptation
➜The distinction is based on whether adaptation is motivated by
private (individual) households and companies or public interest
(government)

Planned or Autonomous Adaptation

➜Planned adaptation is consequence of deliberate policy decision,
based on the awareness that conditions have changed or are
expected to change and that some form of action is required to
maintain a desired state.
 Climate Change Mitigation
➥It refers avoiding and reducing emission of heat trapping
greenhouse gases in to the atmosphere to prevent the planet
from warming to more extreme temperatures.
◉For example, reducing source of heat trapping greenhouse
gases the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat or
transport and enhancing the sinks that accumulate and store
these gases (such as the oceans, forests and soil).
 2.6. International Conventions and
Agreements on Climate Change
➽The First World Climate Conference (1979) identified
climate change as an urgent world problem and issued a
declaration calling on governments to anticipate and guard
against potential climate hazards.
➣A World Climate Programme was set up, directed by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International
Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU).
➜Several intergovernmental conferences on climate change
followed.
➽The Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere (1988)
advanced public debate, when more than 340 participants from
46 countries all recommended developing a comprehensive
global framework convention to protect the atmosphere.
➣Following a proposal by Malta, the United Nations
General Assembly addressed climate change for the first
time by adopting Resolution 43/53.
◉This recognized that “climate change is a common concern of
mankind, since climate is an essential condition which sustains
life on earth”, and determined that “necessary and timely
action should be taken to deal with climate change within a
global framework …”
The WMO and UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), to assess the magnitude and timing of
changes, estimate their impacts and present strategies for how
to respond.
➽The IPCC published the First Assessment Report on the state of the global
climate (1990), which had a potent effect on policy makers and on public
opinion
➽The IPCC finalized its Second Assessment Report in time for COP 2 in Geneva
in June 1996
➜It concluded that on the balance of available evidence, there was indeed a
discernible human influence on global climate that posed hazards to human
and economic development.
It recommended cost-effective steps, consistent with sustainable development
and designed to provide “no regrets” safeguards against such risks
➽The Kyoto Protocol (2005) came into force on 16 February.
The first Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the
Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP 1) was held with COP 11 in Montreal in November
and december.
◉However, the United States did not ratify the protocol, and many developing
nations such as China were not required to carry out emission reductions, since
they had been responsible
for only a small part of the accumulated CO2 up to that point .
The cutting down on the emissions of greenhouse gases and
pollutants has several potentially positive benefits.
These are, it:
➜ Could slow down the enhancement of
Earth’s greenhouse effect,
➜Reduce global warming,
➜Reduce acid rain,
➜ Diminish haze,
➜ Slow the production of photochemical
smphotoche
➜produce sgnificant health benefits.
 2.7. Pillars of Climate Resilient
Green Economy of Ethiopia
➜Ethiopia’s plan is to follow a green growth path that fosters
development and sustainability.
◉The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy follows a
sectoral approach.
➽Ethiopia’s green economy plan is based on four pillars discussed
below
➣ Improving crop and livestock production practices for higher
farmer income and food security while reducing emissions:
➣Protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and
ecosystem services including carbon stocks.
➣Expanding electricity generation from renewable sources of energy
for domestic and regional market
➣Leapfrogging to modern and energy-efficient technologies in
transport, industrial sectors and buildings: