Course Title: Climate change and Disaster Risk

Reduction

Course Code: DRM 514

Credit hours: 3

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 1.1. An Overview of Climate System
What is the Climate System?
“The climate system is the highly
complex system consisting of five major components:
the atmosphere,
the hydrosphere,
the cryosphere,
the lithosphere(land surface) and
the biosphere, and the interactions between them.
The climate system is continually changing due to the
interactions between the components as well as external
factors such as volcanic eruptions or solar variations and
human-induced factors such as changes to the
atmosphere and changes in land use.

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 CONT’D..

• The global climate is the connected system

of sun, earth and oceans, wind, rain and
snow, forests, deserts and savannas, and
everything people do, too. The climate of a
place, say Addis Ababa, can be described as
its rainfall, changing temperatures during
the year and so on.
• But the global climate is more than the
“average” of the climates of specific places.
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 Major Elements of weather and climate
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Humidity
• Atmospheric pressure
• Cloudiness
• Wind

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Controls of climate:
1. Latitudes;
2. Altitude;
3. Land and water;
4. Distance from land and water;
5. Low and high pressure cells;
6. Winds and air masses;
7. Mountains barriers/Relief;
8. Ocean currents.

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 CLIMATE BASICS & CHANGE
Definition and Concepts of Climate?
– Weather is the average atmospheric conditions of a
particular place for a short period of time –over hours to
weeks.
– Weather is the condition of the Earth’s atmosphere at any
particular time and place, mainly for a short period of
time.
– Weather is the state of the atmosphere—its temperature,
humidity, wind, rainfall and so on—over hours to
weeks.
– It is influenced by the oceans, land surfaces and ice
sheets, which together with the atmosphere form what is
called the ‘climate system’. 6
 Cont’d
• Weather keeps changing all the time and the
time-scale of such changes could vary from
minute to minute hour to hour and day to day.
• Climate is the average weather conditions of
particular place for a long period of time for at
least 35year.
• It is important to identify the difference
between weather and climate.

• Note: Climate is what you expect, Weather is

what you get!
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 Cont’d
• The climate system is defined as the five components
in the geophysical system, the atmosphere and four
others which directly interact with the atmosphere
and which jointly determine the climate of the
atmosphere. The five components are listed below:
(a) Atmosphere;
(b) Ocean/hydrosphere,
(c) Land surface lithosphere/geosphere;
(d) Biosphere (both terrestrial and marine),
(e) Ice & snow surfaces(both land & ocean areas)

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 Cont’d
• Climate change is a change in the statistical properties
of the climate system that persists/continue for several
decades or longer—usually at least 35 years.
• These statistical properties include averages, variability
and extremes.
• Climate change may be due to natural processes, such as
changes in the sun’s radiation, volcanoes or internal
variability in the climate system, or due to human
influences such as changes in the composition of the
atmosphere or land use.

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• The climate system evolves in time under the
influence of its own internal dynamics and due to
changes in external factors that are called forcing.
- Internal forcing's:
- External forcing’s:
• There are three fundamental ways to change the energy
balance of the Earth:
1. by changing the incoming solar energy;
2. by changing the fraction of solar energy that is
reflected; and
3) by altering the energy that returns to space
from the Earth.

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 GLOBAL WARMING & GREENHOUSE
GASES:
• What is Global Warming?
Global Warming is the slow
increase in the average temperature of the earth’s atmos
phere
.
• Because an increased amount of the energy (heat)
striking the earth from the sun is being trapped in the
atmosphere and not radiated out into space.
• The earth’s atmosphere has always acted like a greenhouse to
capture the sun’s heat, ensuring that the earth has enjoyed
temperatures that permitted the emergence of life forms as we
know them, including humans.
• Without our atmospheric greenhouse the earth would be very
cold.
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• Over the past 50 years, the average global temperature has
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 What causes global warming?

Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide

(CO2) and other air pollutants and greenhouse
gases collect in the atmosphere and absorb
sunlight and solar radiation that have bounced
off the earth’s surface. Normally, this radiation
would escape into space—but these pollutants,
which can last for years to centuries in the
atmosphere, trap the heat and cause the planet
to get hotter. That's what's known as the
greenhouse effect.
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 Global warming & greenhouse gases
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases

Nitrogen (N2)
Non-
Greenhouse
Gases
Oxygen (O2)
99%
Water (H2O)
Greenhouse
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Gases
1%
Methane (CH4)
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How doe’s Global warming drive Climate Change?
Heat is energy and when you add energy to any
system changes occur.
Because all systems in the global climate system
are connected, adding heat energy causes the
global climate as a whole to change.

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 What are the most important sources of GHGs?
• Fossil fuel and related uses of coal and petroleum are
the most important sources of GHGs and black carbon
(power generation, industry, transportation,
buildings).
• Agriculture is the second most important source
(animals – cows and pigs), feed production, chemical
intensive food production, and flooded paddy rice
production, as well as deforestation driven by the
desire to expand cultivated areas.
• Natural sources of GHGs and black carbon include
forest fires, savanna fires and volcanos.

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Methane ( CH4)
Agricultural activities, waste management, energy use,
and biomass burning all contribute to CH4 emissions.
Nitrous Oxide(N2O)
Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the
primary source of N2O emissions. Fossil fuel combustion
also generates N2O.
Florinated Gases(F-gases)
Industrial processes, refrigeration, and the use of a
variety of consumer products contribute to emissions of
F-gases, which include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
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Likewise, the earth’s atmospheric gases affect the
ability of the earth to radiate the Sun’s energy
back into space.
•Nitrogen and Oxygen make up 99% of the
earth’s atmospheric gases and are non-
greenhouse gases.
•Water vapor, Carbon Dioxide, and Methane
make up 1% of the earth’s atmosphere, but are
greenhouse gases, since they cause the earth to
retain heat.

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 Greenhouse effect and greenhouse gases:
• Greenhouse effect: The ability of the atmosphere to
capture and recycle energy emitted by the Earth surface
is the defining characteristic of the greenhouse effect.
• The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation
from a planet's atmosphere warms the planet's surface
to a temperature above what it would be in the absence
of its atmosphere.
• If a planet's atmosphere contains radiatively active
gases (i.e., GHGs) the atmosphere radiates energy in all
directions. Part of this radiation is directed towards the
surface, warming it.

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 The Greenhouse Effect (Cont’d)

• Certain gases in the atmosphere, such as water,

CO2, methane, CFCs, and nitrous oxide, absorb
infrared light that would otherwise escape to
space, radiating it back toward the planet's
surface.
• These "greenhouse gases," have always had a
critical role in determining the temperature of
the Earth's surface and the liveability of the
planet.

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• The concentrations of certain greenhouse
gases such CO2, CH4, NOX, CFCs, in the
atmosphere are increasing, and therefore
more of infra-red radiation emitted by the
earth surface is being trapped. The planet is
losing less heat and as a result we are
beginning to experience "Global Warming".

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 The Greenhouse Effect (Cont’d)

• Earth’s natural greenhouse effect is critical to

supporting life. Human activities, primarily the
burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests,
have intensified the natural greenhouse effect,
causing global warming.

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Observed Climate Variability and Change
Earth's climate is changing:
– The global average temperature has
increased by more than 1.5°c since the late
1800s.
– Some regions of the world have warmed by
more than twice this amount.
– The buildup of greenhouse gases in our
atmosphere and the warming of the planet
are responsible for other changes

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Climate variability vs. Climate change
• Current common usage and in, e.g., the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) usage.
• Climate variability = natural variability
– Natural “modes” of variability
• Climate change = anthropogenic forcing
– (due to man-made changes in greenhouse
gases, land surfaces, species distributions, etc.)

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• The term "Climate Variability" is often used to denote
deviations of climatic statistics over a given period of
time (e.g. a month, season or year) when compared to
long-term statistics for the same calendar period.
• Climate variability looks at changes that occur within
smaller timeframes, such as a month, a season or a
year.
• Climate change considers changes that occur over a
longer period of time, typically over decades or longer.
• According to IPCC (2007), climate change
refers to any change in climate over time, due to
natural variability or as a result of human
activity. 27
Climate Change versus Global warming
•The current context of global climate change has
been often associated with human induced climate
change, and which is often equated to global
warming.
•Global warming: is the increase in the average
measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface
air and oceans.
•Thus, increased global warming is just one of the
manifestations of climate change.

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Three properties of the climate include
“normals,” “extremes,” and “frequencies” and
are used to gauge the state of the atmosphere
over a particular time period
o “Normals” refers to average weather
conditions at a place.
o “extremes” are used to describe the
maximum and minimum measurements of
atmospheric variables.
o “frequencies” refers to the rate of incidence
of a particular phenomenon at a particular
place, over a long period of time
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 MAJOR CAUSES OF Climate Change:
1. Natural Factors
2. Anthropogenic factors
1. Natural Factors: (A). Climate Change - Plate Tectonics
• Theory of Plate Tectonics - Continental Drift
• Earths outer shell is composed of plates -->
• they move at a rate of about 3 cm per year
• affect of more land at higher latitudes:
– alter ocean currents and therefore heat transport
– alter global atmospheric circulation
– more glaciers over land, higher albedo, cooler temps.
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 Cont’d..
• plate movement also generates more volcanic
activity
– hence, when the plates are on the move,
have more volcanic eruptions -> emit more
CO2 into atmosphere
– this would cause global temps to rise.
– if there is little movement, volcanic activity
decreases -> so CO2 concentrations are
lower in the atmosphere -> average
temperature decreases 32
 Major Causes of CC: Natural Factors (Cont’d)
(B). Climate Change - Milankovitch Theory - Eccentricity
Cycle
•Climate change due to variations in the earth's orbit -
Milankovitch Theory
• Eccentricity cycle - the earth's orbit around the sun
is elliptical.
•the shape of the ellipse (eccentricity) varies from less
elliptical to more elliptical back to less elliptical and
take c.100,000 years to complete this cycle.
•currently, we are in an orbit of low eccentricity (near
circular).
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 Natural Factors (Cont’d)
(C). Climate Change - Milankovitch Theory- Tilt Cycle
•Climate change due to variations in the earth's orbit
- Milankovitch Theory
•Tilt Cycle - currently, the axis of rotation for the
earth is tilted at 23.5°.
•However, this value changes from a minimum of
22.5° to a maximum of 24.5° and takes 41,000 years
to complete one cycle
•at 22.5° the seasonal variation will be

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 Natural Factors (Cont’d)
• at 24.5° the seasonal variation will be
• The Milankovitch cycles and plate tectonics are
not the only natural factors which can affect
global climate......, there are other factors to
consider:
• amount of dust and aerosols in the atmosphere
• reflectivity of ice sheets
• concentrations of trace gases
• amount of clouds

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 Natural Factors (Cont’d)

(D). Climate Change - Aerosols in the Stratosphere

•Largely injected by volcanic eruptions
•remember, the stratosphere is a stable layer, so
lighter, smaller aerosols will have long residence
times
•aerosols reflect and absorb short wave radiation
•As a result aerosols produce warming in the
stratosphere and cooling in the troposphere

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 Natural Factors (Cont’d)

(E). Climate Change - Mt. Pinatubo's SO2 Plume...

•Mt. Pinatubo injected 20 million tons of sulfur
dioxide into the stratosphere!
•The sulfur dioxide was observed around the globe in
the equatorial regions
•What was the effect on global temperatures???
•Climate Change - Mt. Pinatubo's effect on Global
Temperatures
•average hemispheric temperatures dropped by 0.2-
0.5°C for a period of 1-3 years.
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 2. Man made or Anthropogenic Factors
• Climate Change - Increasing Concentrations of
CO2 and other Green House Gases
• CO2 - natural and anthropogenic sources
– recent increase due to fossil-fuel combustion and
deforestation
• CH4 -natural and anthropogenic sources
– about 1/2 of current emissions are anthropogenic (land
fills, natural gas, agriculture)
• N2O- natural and anthropogenic sources
– nitrogen-based fertilizers
• Other important Greenhouse Gases:
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– CFCs; Ozone; and of course, water vapor!
 (cont.d)
Climate Change - Aerosols in the troposphere
• aerosols are tiny liquid and solid particles
They enter the troposphere by:
• factory and auto emissions
• agricultural burning / wild fires
• Aerosol concentrations are increasing with time.

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Ten Clear Indicators Our Climate is Changing
1. Air temperatures over land are increasing. ...
2. Air temperatures over oceans are increasing. .
3. Arctic sea ice is decreasing. ...
4. Glaciers are melting. ...
5. Sea levels are rising. ...
6. Humidity is increasing. ...
7. Ocean heat content is increasing. ...
8. Sea surface temperature is increasing.
9. Snow is decreasing
10. Earth’s lower atmosphere temperature is increasing.

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Major Effects of Climate Change
• Climate change is expected to have an impact on a
wide range of ecological and socio-economic areas
including human health.
• Many types of impact of climate change would
have on the human community, and on plant and
animal communities. Some of the impacts may be
considered to be favourable, but a large number
are unfavourable and would require actions to
reduce their negative effects.

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Ecological Effects of climate change:
-Effects on freshwater systems
•Today, about 1.7billion people or 1/3rd of the world’s
population live in areas of water scarcity, i.e., where they
use >20% of their renewable water supplies.
-Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystems
Climate determine the spatio-temporal distribution of
major terrestrial ecosystems (biomes) from deserts to
rainforests.
1.Geographic shifts in terrestrial habitats:
2.Dynamics in the mutual interactions between vegetation and
climate:
3.Increases in disturbance weather in the mid-latitude temperate
regions:
4.Loss of biodiversity 43
• Climate change effects on many plant and animal
species migration and reproduction.
• For instance, warming may force species to migrate
to higher latitudes or higher elevations where
temperatures are more conducive to their survival.
- Effects on Marine Environment:
1. a global average sea-level rise of about 0.2 to 0.7m
2. possible changes in large-scale ocean circulation
pattern,
3. alterations of important oceanic biogeochemical
cycles:
4. direct impacts on marine ecosystems
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 Climate change on agriculture:

it will affect crops in a number of ways.

•These include the growth process of crop and
livestock production and those of insects, weeds
and diseases.
•Higher temperatures are linked to almost all of
climate change’s most severe impacts, including
more frequent and intense heat waves,
widespread crop failures, and dramatic shifts in
animal and plant ranges.
.
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 Cont’d..
• For any particular crop, the effect of increased
temperature will depend on the crop's optimal
temperature for growth and reproduction. In some
areas, warming may benefit the types of crops that are
typically planted there, or allow farmers to shift to
crops that are currently grown in warmer areas.
Conversely, if the higher temperature exceeds a crop's
optimum temperature, yields will decline.
• Higher CO2 levels can affect crop yields.
• More extreme temperature and precipitation can
prevent crops from growing. Extreme events,
especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and
reduce yields. 46
 Climate change effects on Human Health:
• loss of life.
• (a) direct causes such as the increased severity of
heat waves and
(b) to indirect effects such as changes in local
food productivity and in the range of diseases
transmitted by organisms in air or water.
Warmer temperatures increase the frequency,
intensity, and duration of heat waves, which can
pose health risks,

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 (Cont’d)

-Examples of other vector-borne and other diseases:

• Cholera
• Chikungunya
• Urban yellow fever
• Rodent-borne Diseases
• Hantaviruses
• Food born disease
• Water-borne Diseases

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Climate change effects on Human Settlement and Infrastructure:
• It will differ regionally and could range from insignificant
to catastrophic. Natural warming or cooling periods of
only 1 or 20C have impacted human activities, resulted in
population migration, or altered settlement patterns.
• Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, and
floods, can increase losses to property, cause costly
disruptions to society.
• Infrastructure systems for the energy, transport,
telecommunications, water and wastewater, solid waste,
buildings and food sectors will affect.
• Damages to roads, bridges, storage, water supply and
market infrastructures.
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The indirect consequences of climate change, which
directly affect us humans and our environment, include:
• an increase in hunger and water crises, especially in developing
countries
• health risks through rising air temperatures and heat waves
• economic implications of dealing with secondary damage
related to climate change
• increasing spread of pests and pathogens
• loss of biodiversity due to limited adaptability and adaptability
speed of flora and fauna
• ocean acidification due to increased HCO3 concentrations in
the water as a consequence of increased CO₂ concentrations
• the need for adaptation in all areas (e.g. agriculture, forestry,
energy, infrastructure, tourism, etc.)
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Direct and indirect health impacts of cc on the vulnerable

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In general the impacts we can say like this also:
-Climate change impacts on agriculture
-Climate change impacts on health
-Climate change impacts on economy
-Climate change impacts on ecosystem
-Climate change impacts on culture
-Climate change impacts on infrastructure
-Climate change impacts on livestock
-Climate change impacts on human settlement
-Impacts on Fisheries
-Impacts on Livestock
-Impacts on Crops
-Climate Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply
-Etc… 53
 Types of Ecosystem Services

• Provisioning Services
• Regulating Services
• Cultural Services
• Supporting Services

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