Scribd
Upload
8 views3 pages

Stats Class 2 Answers

Uploaded by

Rafan Ahmed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
8 views3 pages

Stats Class 2 Answers

Uploaded by

Rafan Ahmed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 3

BE303: Quantitative Methods and Finance

Stats Class 2: Probability

1) From a normal pack of 52 cards (four different suits and 13 cards in each suit), 1 card is
randomly selected.
a) What is the probability of an ace? What is the probability of a club? Are these two events
mutually exclusive? Why or why not?

P(Ace)=4/52 = 1/13 = 0.077

P(Club)=13/52 = 1/4 = 0.25

No, they are not mutually exclusive. Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time.
An ace and club can appear at the same time.

b) What is the probability of a picture card (jack, king, queen)? What is the probability of 6 (of
something)? Are these two events mutually exclusive? Why or why not?

P(Picture)=12/52 = 3/13 = 0.231

P(6) =4/52 = 1/13 = 0.077

Yes, they are mutually exclusive events because they cannot happen at the same time

c) Two cards are drawn from the pack at random. What is the probability of both are kings if (i)
the first card is not replaced back in the pack? (ii) the first card is replaced in the pack before
the second is drawn?
(i) The first card is not replaced in the pack
A: First card is a King
B: Second card is a King
P(A) = 4/52 and the card is not replaced and so P(B/A) = 3/51
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B/A) = 4/52 × 3/ 51 = 0.004525

(ii) The first card is replaced in the pack before the card is drawn.
The card is replaced so P(B/A) = P(B).
The events are independent. P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) = 4/52 × 4/52 = 0.005917

2) In a sample of 250 smartphones it was found that the battery on 68 of them failed within
two years of purchase.
a) What is the probability that the battery of any new phone will fail within the first two
years?

P(Failure)=68/250=0.272
b) In a batch of 400 phones for how many would you expect the battery to fail within 2
years of purchase?

From (a) the probability of any one battery failing is 0.272 so we would expect
0.272*400=109 phones to fail (Rounded to nearest integer)

3) 50 workers work on an assembly line. Of these 5 produce work late, 6 assemble defective
products and 2 produce work late and assemble defective products. What is the
probability that a worker produces late work or produces defective products or both?

Let A = late work

Let B = assemble defective products

P(A) = 5/50 = 0.1

P(B) = 6/50 = 0.12

P(A and B) = 2/50 = 0.04

As they are non-mutually exclusive events, we apply the following rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) –
P(A and B) = 0.1 + 0.12 – 0.04 = 0.18

4) A software company surveyed office managers to determine the probability that they
would buy a new graphics package. From the survey, 80% of the managers said they would
buy the package. Of these, 40% were also interested in upgrading their computer
hardware. Of those managers who were not interested in purchasing the graphics package
only 10% were interested in upgrading their computer hardware. Define the events:

B: Manager would buy a package


U: Manager would upgrade

Use a tree diagram to calculate the probability that:


a) An office manager is interested in upgrading and also interested in purchasing the new
graphics package.

Here, events B and U are dependent: P (B and U) = P (B) * P (U | B) = 0.8 * 0.4 = 0.32

b) An office manager is not interested in the new graphics package and is also not
interested in upgrading their computer hardware

Define the events:


B!: manager wouldn’t buy a package
U!: manager wouldn’t upgrade
Here, events B! and U! are dependent: P (B! and U!) = P (B!) * P (U! | B!) = 0.2 * 0.9 =
0.18
U: 0.4 0.8*0.4=0.32

B: 0.8 U!: 0.6


0.8*0.6=0.48
U: 0.1 0.2*0.1=0.02

B!: 0.2
U!: 0.9 0.2*0.9=0.18

c) Suppose that you know one manager in particular is interested in upgrading their
computer hardware. Conditional on this information what is the probability that this
manager is interested in purchasing the new graphics package?

0.32/(0.32+0.02)=0.94

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy