Probability for Industrial

Engineering
Probability

Dr. Hande ÇAVUŞ ARSLAN

handearslan@halic.edu.tr
 Probability of an Event
If an experiment gives N different results with equal probability and these
results are suitable for an event A, the case of event A is P (A).

𝑀
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁
E1T here are 4 white and 8 black balls in a bag. What is the probability of coming
black?
What is Deck of Cards? What cards does it consist of ?

Hearts
13 cards

Diamonds
13 cards

Clubs
13 cards

Spades
13 cards
What is Deck of Cards? What cards does it consist of ?

Kupa
13 adet
Jack

Karo
13 adet

Queen

Sinek
13 adet

King
Maça
13 adet
E2: A card is drawn from a 52-card deck. Find the probability of drawing
a) Ace of hearts
b) Hearts
c) Ace
E3: 3-digit numbers are written by randomly selecting three of the numbers
1,2,3,4,5 without replacing them. Find the possibility of selecting
a) Even Number
b) A multiple of 5
E4: 10 balls numbered from 1 to 10 are thrown into a bag. Two of the balls are
chosen at random. What is the probability that balls 3 and 7 were drawn?
Possibility Rules

1) If A1 and A2 are two events in a sample space such that A1 is a subset

of A2,
𝑃 𝐴1 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴2)

2) If any A event is a subset of S 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 1

3) 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

4) 𝑃 ∅ = 0

5) 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′

6) 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
E5: What is the probability that once the two dice are rolled, their total will be
7 or 10?

E6: What is the probability that an Ace or Diamond is drawn when a random
card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards?
E7: 8 cards were drawn from a deck of 52 cards without being replaced. What
is the probability of drawing 3 Aces or 3 Kings?
E7-2: A ready-made clothing company wants to create a model for
recruitment. For this, company executives want 80% of new workers to be
women and 30% of women to be single in the next five years. It is also
planned that one out of every five workers to be recruited will be a married
man. What is the probability that managers will hire a single woman?
E8: A box contains 8 red and 5 blue marbles. 5 marbles are randomly
selected from this box at one time.
A: All 5 marbles are blue
B: 2 red and 3 blue marbles.
Find the possibilities for the events of A and B.
E9: There are 20 students in a class with Jack and Kate. A group of 6 people
will be formed from this class. What is the probability that Jack and Kate does
not exist in this group of 6 people?
E10: What is the probability that 2 of the 5 cards drawn in a card game are
Aces and the other 3 are jacks?
 Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of another event occurring when it is
known that one event has occurred.

𝑃 𝐴\B = The probability that event A will occur while event B has already
occurred
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴\B = 𝑃 𝐵\A =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)

The Conditional Probability Multiplication Rule

P (A ∩ B) = P(B).P(A/B) or P (A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B/A)
E11: A card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. Since it is known that the card
is a jack, what is the probability that the card drawn is hearts?
E12: 400 of 1000 products produced in a day in a factory are made in A and
600 in B machines. 1% of those produced in A and 2% of those produced in B
are defective. A randomly selected product was found to be defective. What is
the probability that the defective product is the product produced in machine
A?
E13: A technical service examined 500 electrical devices for repair and the
results obtained are as follows:

Electrical Mechanical Total

Equipment Equipment
Out of Warranty 190 125 315

Warranty Cover 70 115 185

Total 260 240 500

a) The problem is in the mechanical parts

b) The problem is out of warranty
c) The problem is due to the both mechanical parts and out of warranty
d) If it is known that it is out of warranty, the probability of the problem is
with the mechanical parts?
E14: 5 out of 12 televisions in a second hand store are defective. Two of
these televisions were randomly selected in a row without placing the chosen
place. What is the probability that the first of the selected televisions is broken
and the second one is durable?
E15: A warehouse contains 20 defective and 80 flawless bulbs. 2 bulbs are
selected without replacement. What is the probability that the second selected
bulb is defective?
E15-1: 45% of the students in a school fail in statistics, 35% in computer
courses and 25% in both statistics and computer courses. A randomly
selected student
If it fails from the computer, the probability of failing from statistics as well,
If it fails from statistics, the probability of failing from the computer as well,
Find the probability of failing at least one of these two courses.
E16: The table below shows the probabilities of people in a certain region
regarding blood groups. A randomly chosen one;
a) Having 0 and Rh +?
b) If it is known to be 0, the possibility of Rh +?
c) Rh-?
d) If it is known to be Rh-, the possibility of B?

A B AB 0 Total
Rh+ 0,3 0,1 0,05 0,4 0,85
Rh- 0,05 0,04 0,01 0,05 0,15
Total 0,35 0,14 0,06 0,45 1
Independence of Two Events
Events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one of the two
events A and B does not affect the probability of the other happening.

➢ In other words, if the probability of an event to occur does not

depend on whether the previous event occurred or not, these
events are called independent events.

P (A ∩ B) ≠ P(A). P(B) A and B are Dependent events.

Örnek 17: 70% of the employees in a company are men and 30% are women.
50% of the men are high school graduates, 40% are university graduates, and
10% are post graduates. 60% of women are high school graduates, 30% are
university graduates, and 10% are graduate. Find the possibility of a selected
person to be ;

a) Male and high school graduate?

b)High school graduate?
c)Since it is known that she is a woman, a graduate degree
d)Are the events of being a woman and a university graduate independent?
E18: 200 people working in a company were asked about their opinions about
the decision of the company next year. Find the possibility of a selected
person to be ;
a) Female and disapproves
b) Male or approving
c) Approves or disapproved
d) Are approving and disapproving events independent?

Aprroved Disapproved Total

Male 50 20 70
Female 60 70 130
Total 110 90 200
E19: A student whose success is not very good has a 0.35 chance of passing
a chemistry course, a chance of passing a mathematics lesson 0.4 and a
chance of passing both of them is 0.12.
a) Are the student's probability of passing a chemistry class and a math class
independent?
b) What is the probability of failing both courses?
Complete Independence (Independence of More Than Two
Events)
In order for the three events such as A, B and C to be completely
independent, the following equations must be fulfilled.

P A ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 .𝑃 𝐵
P A ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 .𝑃 𝐶
P B ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐵 .𝑃 𝐶
P A ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃 𝐵 . 𝑃(𝐶)
E20: Two balanced dice are rolled together.
A: First roll: 1 or 2 of the first die
B: The second roll: of 3, 4 or 5
C: Let the sum of the numbers on the dice be 4.11 or 12.
Investigate whether these three events are fully independent.
E21: There are 4 components in the electrical system given in the figure
below. The system works when A and B and C or D components are running.
The probability of operation of each component is given in the figure.
a)Find the probability that the whole system will work,
b) Find the probability that the whole system will work when component C
fails.
*Assume that all four components are independent..