Investment Analysis in Neplese Banks
Investment Analysis in Neplese Banks
BY
Sudip Dahal
Shanker Dev Campus
Campus Roll No.: 808/064
T.U. Registration No.: 53-2-2-1461-2004
2nd Year Symbol No.: 391412
Kathmandu, Nepal
2014
RECOMMENDATION
SUDIP DAHAL
Entitled:
Has been prepared as approved by this Department in the prescribed format of the
Faculty of Management. This thesis is forwarded for examination.
And found the thesis to be the original work of the student and written according to
the prescribed format. We recommend the thesis to be accepted as partial fulfillment
of the requirement for the
Degree of Master’s in Business studies (M.B.S.)
Viva-Voce Committee
I, hereby, declare that the work reported in this thesis entitled “A study on investment
policy analysis of commercial banks in Nepal” submitted to office of the Dean,
Faculty of Management, Tribhuvan University, is my original work done for the
partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Masters of Business Studies (MBS)
under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Keshav Raj Joshi of Shanker Dev Campus,
Putalisadak, Kathmandu.
……………...
Sudip Dahal
Researcher
Roll No: 808/064
Shanker Dev Campus
T.U. Regd. No…53-2-2-1461-2009
Sudip Dahal
Researcher
Roll No: 808/064
Shanker Dev Campus
T.U. Regd. No…53-2-2-1461-2009
After selecting the topic of the research, researcher should study different journals,
periodicals, newspaper, published bibliographies, books etc. to collect or gathering the
information about the selected topic of the research. This process of studying different
educational materials is known as review of literature. In simply review of literature
means to collect the information about the selected topic of the research through the
different sources. Review of literature means stock taking of available literature in
one's field of research. Literature review is a comprehensive review of previous works
on the general and specific topics considered in the report. The literature review may
also serve as a kind of bibliographic index and guide for the readers. It also
demonstrates where the current study fits into the scheme of things. The objective of
reviewing the literature is to develop certain expertise and knowledge in one's area.
Under this topic the following subject matter are reviewed.
• Conceptual Review
• Review of Journal & Articles
• Review of Previous Thesis
2.1 Conceptual Frame Work
The review of textbooks and other reference materials such as: newspapers,
magazines, research articles, journals and past thesis have been included in this topic.
Under the investment policy of commercial banks is matters are considered like the
mobilization strategy of the bank, documentation of fund mobilization processing,
review process, etc.
2.1.1 Concept of Investment
Investment can be defined as sacrifice of present consumption with expectation of
return in future. Investment takes place at present but return can be expected in future
but return in uncertain too. Uncertainty is measured by risk that why there is always
involvement of risk in investment. Investment usually involves putting money into
abet, which is not necessarily marketable in order to enjoy a series of return the
investment is expected to yield. On the other tend speculation is usually a shorter than
phenomena. Speculators tend to buy assets with expecting of a profit that can be
3. Safety
An investment is considered to be safe, if there is a certainty of return of capital
without any loss of the same. The safety on probable return is generally illustrated by
the ratings of the investment vehicles. A (AAA) bond signifies highest possibility of
return of capital with accrued benefits to the bond holder. This is a prime
characteristic of investments, as every investor invests to get back his/her capital
together with profit.
4. Liquidity
It is an important feature of any investment. The yield on any investment is to an
extent a function of liquidity. It can be defined as the property of an investment,
wherein it can be converted in cash on demand, without loss in value. Liquidity in
marketable assets are provided by the market, while non marketable assets like fixed
deposits cannot be liquidated in market but can be offered for premature repayment to
bank.
5. Tax efficiency
Some investments offer tax benefits, while others don't. An ideal
investment is that which offers tax efficient return commensurate to risk with safety
and liquidity. Tax benefits available to an investment can be any one of the following:
2.1.4 Investment Uncertainty (Risk)
Mean =
Where,
= Arithmetic Mean
Standard deviation =
Where,
ો = Standard deviation
r=
Where,
r = Correlation coefficient
= X₁ -
= X₂-
Under this topic, Karl Pearson's correlation coefficient is used to measure the degree
of relationship between the following variables.
• Coefficient of correlation between Total Deposit
Deposit and Total Investment
• Coefficient of correlation between Total Investment and Net Profit.
The interpretation of calculated value of correlation coefficient by following way.
• If r = 0, then there is no correlation between variables.
• If r > 0, then there is positive correlation between variables.
• If r < 0, then there is negative relation between variables.
• If r = +1, then there is perfect positive correlation.
• If r = -1,
- then there is perfect negative correlation.
4. Least Square Linear Trend Analysis:-
An Trend analysis has been a very useful
and commonly applied statistical tool to forecast thefuture events in
quantitative terms. On the basis of tendencies in the dependent variables inthe
past periods, the future trend is predicted. This analysis takes the historical
data as thebasis of forecasting. This method of forecasting the future trend is
based on theassumptions that the past tendencies of the variable are repeated
in the future or the pastevents affect the future events significantlyThe fut
future
trend is forecasted by using the following formula.
formula
Y = a + bx
Where,
here,
Y = the dependent variable
a = the origin i. e. arithmetic mean
b = the slope coefficient i. e. rate of change
t= ×
Where,
r = Sample correlation between two variables
r² = Sample correlation Coefficient
n = No of Pair of observations
Level of significance: Level of significance ∝ = 5%
Critical Value: Tabulated or critical value of t at ∝ % level of significance for
(n - 2) degree of freedom obtain from‘t’ tables.
Decision: If calculated‘t’ is less than or equal to tabulated value of ‘t’ it falls
in the accepted region and the null hypothesis is accepted and if calculated ‘t’
is greater than tabulated ‘t’ null hypothesis is rejected.
Above Table and Figure shows the deposit and investment position of NIBL and
NABIL. The total deposit of NIBL in 2008/09 is Rs.46698.10million
Rs. in this period the
deposit collection of NABIL is Rs 46340.70.. above data shows the deposit and
investment of sampled banks are increasing trend. Above figure trend also shows the
deposit and investment of sampled banks are increasing trend.
4.2 Investment
nt Pattern of NIBL
Investment usually means the sacrifice of the current money for future money. The
sacrificetakes place in the present and the reward comes later, if at all, and the
Table: 4.2
Investment Pattern of NIBL
Sector 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Nepal Govt. T-bills 2531.3 3911.85 3564.60 5282.96 5896.43
Nepal Govt. Saving Bonds - 290.0 730.0 886.53 920.12
Local licensed Institutions - 370.0 361.59 87.90 134.75
Foreign Banks 4807.54 4000.3 2695.95 4009.24 4299.67
Corporate Share 64.27 66.65 72.91 174.41 183.40
Corporate Debentures & Bonds - - - - -
From the above table shows the investment pattern of NIBL bank. NIBL bank invest
his collection of deposit in different type i.e Nepal Government
Government treasury bills, Nepal
government other securities, foreign Bank, and corporate share. The NIBL invest the
high amount in the Nepal govt. treasury bills. The investment trend in treasure bills is
in fluctuating trend over the study period.
The second
ond highest investment sector of NIBL is foreign banks, and Nepal
government saving bonds. the amounted invested in foreign banks are Rs. 4807.54,
4000.3, 2695.95, 10441.04,
10441.04 4299.67million
million respectively in each year. The trend of
investment in foreign bank is in Fluctuating each year.
Table: 4.3
Investment Pattern of NABIL
Sector 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Nepal Govt. T-bills
bills 664.63 1222.47 6489.95 4494.59 6687.12.
Nepal Govt. Saving Bonds - - - - -
Nepal Govt. Other Securities 1753.80 1078.99 2255.28 3505.38 4978.09
Local licensed Institutions 22.50 65.70 305.35 1080.45 1542.8
Foreign Bonds - - 178.1 220.28 340.16
Foreign Banks 1391.68 3706.94 3661.74 4578.66 6276.20
Figure: 4.3
Trend Line of Investment of NABIL
From the above table shows the investment pattern of NABIL bank. NABIL bank
invest his collection of deposit in different type i.e Nepal Government treasury bills,
Nepal government other securities, foreign Bank, and corporate
corporate share. The NABIL
invest the high amount in the Nepal govt. treasury bills. The investment trend in
treasure bills is in fluctuating trend over the study period.
The other main investment sector of NABIL bank is foreign banks, and Nepal
government saving bonds. The trend of investment in foreign bank is in Fluctuating
each year.
4.3 Analysis of Credit Position
4.3.1 Credit position of NIBL
The above table shows the overall credit position of NIBL. The components of total
credit are loan and advance and investment, loan and advance is in increasing trend in
hole five year. The investment is increasing except year 2010/11. And the overall
From above table,, it can be said that there is a greater relationship betweendeposits
and credit. Increase in deposits leads to increase inthe
in loan and advance, but immense
increase in the deposits leads to a little bitincrease
bitincrease in loan and advance. The above
analysis shows that more than 62.20%
% of thedeposited amount has been succeeded to
mobilize the resources. Its satisfactory of the investment position of the NIBL bank.
And the average ratio of NABIL is 53.35%.it showss that more than 53.35% of deposit
is successes to investment.
Table: 4.9
Deposit to Net profit Ratio
NIBL NABIL
Year Net Profit Total Ratio Net Profit Total Ratio
Deposit % Deposit %
2008/09 900.62 46698.10 0.0193 1021.62 46340.70 0.0220
2009/10 1265.95 50094.72 0.0253 1344.18 54905.68 0.0245
2010/11 1176.64 50138.12 0.0235 1700.38 63506.10 0.0268
2011/12 1039.28 57010.60 0.0182 1693.49 67325.36 0.0252
2012/13 1995.03 62428.85 0.0320 2226.68 74563.11 0.0299
Source: annual report of sampled banks
Table: 4.10
Investment to Net profit Ratio
NIBL NABIL
Year Net Profit Total Ratio Net Profit Total Ratio
Investment % Investment %
2008/09 900.62 7399.81 12.17 1021.62 4275.53 23.89
2009/10 1265.95 8635.53 14.66 1344.18 6178.53 21.75
2010/11 1176.64 7423.11 15.85 1700.38 13081.21 12.99
2011/12 1039.28 10438.48 9.95 1693.49 14055.80 12.04
2012/13 1995.03 11434.95 17.45 2226.68 20071.4 11.09
Source: annual report of sampled banks
Source: Appendix
The above table describes the relationship between total deposit and investment of
NIBL and NABIL Bank, during the period of the study the coefficient of correlation
(r) between total deposit and investment of NIBL & NABIL is0.9625 and 0.9802
respectively.
y. This figure shows the positive association between total deposit and
investment. It means total deposit and investment both move towards same direction.
The coefficient of determination (r2) is 0.9267 & 9607. It shows that 92.65% and
96.07% of the variation in the dependent variable (i.e. deposit) is explained by the
independent variable (i.e. investment). The calculated value of ‘t’ is more than the
tabulated value of ‘t’ (i.e. 4.43> 2.201) therefore true value of ‘r’ is significant. It
reveals that there is significant relationship between the total deposit and investment.
4.5.2 Correlation between loan & Adv and Investment
Coefficient of correlation measures the degree of relationship between two variab
variables,
loan & advances and deposit.
deposit Total deposit is independent variable ( ) and loan and
advances isdependent variable ( ). The purpose of computing is to find out the
relationship between loan & advances and deposit.
Table: 4.12
Correlation between loan & Adv and Investment
Name of the Correlation t-Value
Result
Company (r) r² Calculated Tabulated
Source: Appendix
Source: Appendix
The above table describes the relationship between investment and net profit of NIBL
and NABIL, during the period of the study the coefficient of correlation (r) is 0.7036
and 0.9833. This figure shows the positive relation between investment and net profit.
It means investment and net profit both move towards same direction. The coefficient
of determination (r2) is 0.4951 and 0.9669, It shows that 49.51% and 96.69% oof the
variation in the dependent variable (i.e. investment) is explained by the independent
variable (i.e. investment).
4.6 Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis is one of the statistical tools which is used to determine the
improvement or deterioration of its financial
financial situation. Trend analysis informs about
∑ Y = Na + b∑ X ……………...(i)
∑ XY = a ∑ X + b∑ X …………(ii)
Where, N = number of years
But for simplification, if the time variable is measured as a deviation form its
mean i.e. mid-point is taken as the origin, the negative value in the first half of the
series balance out the positive values in the second half so that ( ∑ X = 0).
The values of constant a and b can easily be determined by using following
formula.
∑Y
a= N
∑ XY
2
b= X
4.6.1 Trend Analysis of investment of NIBL
Under this topic, an effort has been made to calculate the trend value of investment of
sample banks with comparatively under nine years study period and project the trend
for next five years. The following table describes the trend values of investment of
sampled banks for five years.