Energy Crisis In Pakistan

Origins, Challenges and Sustainable Solutions

Author: Muhammad Asif

Topics going to be covered
1. Energy and Sustainable developments
2. Oil discovery and age, Oil driven Foriegn Policy and Geo-Strategic conflicts.
3. The Energy Crisis 2006-2007: Origin, Dimensions and Implications.
4. The Energy Crisis and Relevant stakeholders.
5. Road To energy sustainability.
6. Sustainable energy options.
Energy and Sustainable developments

1. Energy = Human activities

2. Human Development Index of a country has strong relationship with its
energy prosperity.
3. Population and urbanization
Energy Resources,

Fossils fuels, deposits once living organisms principally consist of carbon and
hydrogen. Classified {Coal, Gas and Oil}.

Coal: Sold Form, empowered Industrial revolution in 19th century

transformed human civilization.

Oil: More efficient, exceeded human expectations

Gas: Found where oil lies or may not. Less carbon dioxide emission

Nuclear Power: Nuclear fission {exothermic} and fusion {Endothermic}

Renewable energy: Due to depleting reserves {Biomass, Wind, Hydro}

Price Hiking Driving Factors
1. Depleting production {India,US and China demands}
2. Geo-strategic conflicts {65% of oil reserves lies in middle east a volatile
region}
Oil discovery and age, Oil driven Foriegn Policy and Geo-Strategic conflicts.

1. Oil was discovered in first half of 19th century but officially drilled in 1847 Baku Azerbaijan.
2. First Commercial oil was discovered in US pennsylvania.
3. In 1885, Gottlieb Wilhelm Daimler, a German engineer developed the initial model of
combustion engine based mobile resultanly demand exceeded.
Oil Driven Foriegn Policy:
Iran and British relationship {Bumrah Oil Company 1912 ww1 around the corner}
Britain’s Naval ship converted to oil and vigorous pursuit of oil and became integral part of FP.
Winston Churchill {At any rate we have to become the owners of oil we require}
Japan depends on USA oil embargo 1941
South China sea = 28 billion barrels oil; Caspian sea 200 billion barrels oil.
Localized Existence of Oil and Gas Reserves:
1. Natural gas was commercially utilized for the first time in 1821 in New York.
2. Oil and Gas jointly contributing to around 56% of Global energy requirements.
3. More than 88% of the world oil is located in 10 countries.
4. Middle east is the headquarter of Oil of the world.

Energy Security:
1. Energy security means consistent availability of sufficient energy in various forms
at affordable prices.
2. Breach of energy security is also prone to lead to national instability.
3. A great number of countries in the world, particularly the industrialized mature
economies have placed energy security on the top of their national policies.
4. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier emphasized the fact by
stating that maintaining global security in the 21st century will inseparably
also be linked to energy security.
US- Dominance
● By 1960’s US had displaced Britain from the region’s oil resources to a great
extent, as Harry Magdoff writes: ‘In 1940, Britain controlled 72% of the Middle
Eastern oil reserves while US only held 10%. By 1967 US controlled 60% and
British 30% or below.
● Jimmy Carter’s State of the Union address in 1980, also famously known as
the Carter Doctrine’s States: ‘Let our position be absolutely clear. An attempt
by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded
as an assault on the Vital interests of US and Military.
Role of Petroleum in the Geo-Politics of the 21st century:
The US-China factor:
1. Dearth of oil give rise to competition between aforementioned countries.
2. China’s demand of oil will be 2x in 2025 which is why Chinese companies are
investing in exploration of oil world wide.
3. Clash interest between two countries
4. Middle-East and Caspian sea basin is leading to growing agitation between two
The Russia-EU Affair:
1. Along side US and China; Russia is also a proactive player on chessboard of
energy.
2. Russia has largest gas reserves and 7th largest oil reserves.
3. Much of Europe depends on Russia for gas imports.
The Energy Crisis 2006-2007: Origin, Dimensions and Implications.
Gap between Energy Demand and Supply:

1. Pakistan has experienced rapid growth in primary energy {all forms of energy,
electricity, fuel, gas } demand- figures indicate 150% increment in primary energy
consumption over the last 20 years.
2. The demand in Pakistan far exceeds the supply in Pakistan.
3. Statistics suggest that over last 36 years the gap b/w commercial energy demand and
supply has grown 6 folds.
4. The steep rise is because of urbanization and installing of electric grid in rural areas.
5. The number of consumers jumped from 7.9 million in 1992 to 19.9 in 2008.
6. Yet 60% people are connected to national grid.
7. Exceptional period 1990 and earlier half 2000 when country had adequate energy.
The modern stone age
● Half naked, half covered with leaves, barefooted, with shoulder-long hair and
a spear {Stone age}
● Modern stone age {Modern homes, fluorescent lights, modern ovens in the
kitchen yet cant operate.}
Energy security and National sovereignty
1. In the present age energy security is of paramount importance ensuring
national sovereignty, by its very nature, energy security of a country demands
provision of adequate, affordable, and consistent energy to its people.
2. Factors: dependence on imports, unaffordable prices, inconsistent supplies.
3. Pakistan does not have autonomy as decisions on energy are dictated by IMF
and various international agencies.
The Energy Crisis and Relevant stakeholders.

● One of the fundamental reasons for Pakistan still being a developing country
that relies heavily on foreign aid and resources in nearly every sectors after
independence in weak institutions.
1. Lack of vision
2. Bad governance
3. self-interest.
Lack of vision
● In 2002 ex-acting chairman of Wapda wrote to government of Pakistan to give
serious consideration to the approaching crisis but was told to stop raising
false alarm resultly energy crisis of 2007-8.
● How relevant were authorities to anticipate any challenge can be observed
from the fact that on 18 march 2004 Aftab Ahmed sherpao Minister of Water
and Power predicted an electricity deficit of less than 1500 Megawatt by 2007
contrary to that shortfall grew to 4,500.

Project oriented approach rather than goal oriented approach. They follow.
Nepotism
● The problem not only exist in energy department but also at ministerial level.
● Energy sector is so technical yet is always handed over to people who are ill
qualified. Or have irrelevant degrees.
● Not a very long ago a Minister for Water and Power had only passed high
school.
● Energy offices are used as bargaining tool.
A big mockery in system
One of the hallmark examples in this regard:

● Appointment of Chairman of NEPRA {National Electric Power Regulatory

Authority}. Khalid Saeed appointed is considered to be a daylight robbery.
● In 2007, for the vacant position of chairman of NEPRA, 72 members applied
and 5 got shortlisted. Rather than appointment of any of the shortlisted, the
position was handed to secretary of Prime Minister. Interestingly, the
appointee had to re arrange job criteria in order to get position because he did
not possess the required expertise. However, after this issue position was
invoked.
Corruption
Global Corruption report 2009 by global anti-corruption watchdog, Transparency
international as it declares about Pakistan that: there exist no law against corruption.

● KESC 2005 privatization. Sold for 22 billion rupees when having valuation of 220
billion rupees.
Kalabagh Dam
● The energy outlook of Pakistan cannot be complete without an account of the
Kalabagh.
1. The project was a natural progression of the Indus Basin Development Programme.
2. Massive importance: (1) Vital irrigation (2) Cushion for flood control (3) it was also to
serve as a large resource of cheap and sustainable electricity.
3. The project was to be completed by 1990 but due to politicization it could not.
4. It could help in energy crisis.
5. The installed capacity of the Kalabagh dam would be 3,600 MW. Annually 11,400 GWh.
Could replace rental programmes.
6. This much electricity from IPPS is being purchased in 2009 at a price of 131.5 billion
generating it from Kalabagh Dam would have costed below 6.5 billion.
7. Sindh and KPK concerns are baseless. Independent foriegn companies dismiss any
allegation that it will harm as said by Sindh and KPK on which their political mobilization
takes place.
1. Academia
2. Industry
3. Investment in the energy sector
Road to Energy Sustainability
Given the magnitude and dimensions of the challenges faced by Pakistan, the
road to sustainable energy future is not an easy one. Huge damage done. Yet
possible.
Sustainable Energy Options
● This chapter provides solutions to the energy problems facing Pakistan in a robust and
sustainable fashion. It describes the potential strengths of the country’s energy portfolio.
The prominent indigenious resources that can be tapped to provide affordable and
sufficient energy on a long term-basis.
1. Energy conservation {According to Planning commission of Pakistan, energy
utilization per unit of GDP in Pakistan is more than double that of world average and
five times of Japan and UK}. Inefficient infrastructure consumes more.
2. Reforms in Industrial sector {Boilers and compressors lack proper calibration and
maintenance} they are unaware.
3. Domestic sector.
4. Transport sector.
5. Coal. Indigenious commodity
6. Renewable energy.
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