Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation (2024) 16:21 BMC Sports Science, Medicine

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13102-024-00813-9
and Rehabilitation

RESEARCH Open Access

Does video assistant referee technology

change the magnitude and direction of home
advantages and referee bias? A proof-of-
concept study
Ali Işın1 and Qing Yi2*

Abstract
Background This study analyzed how Video Assistant Referee (VAR), introduced to improve the accuracy of referee
decisions in football, changes the magnitude and direction of home advantage and referee bias in the Turkish Super
League.
Methods We analyzed points, goals, yellow cards and red cards, fouls, penalties, and offside data from 1,838 matches
played in the Turkish Super League with and without VAR. Two-sample t-tests and two one-sided tests analysis were
applied to determine the differences between the home and away team data between the seasons played with and
without VAR.
Results The findings revealed that the only variable that changed significantly after VAR was implemented was fouls,
which decreased for both home (p <.001; d = 0.56, medium effect) and away teams (p <.001; d = 0.69, medium effect).
The results also indicated that, with or without VAR, home teams had an advantage over away teams in points and
goals, and away teams faced more referee bias regarding yellow cards and penalties (against).
Conclusions Although this study shows that VAR does not significantly impact the HA and referee bias of football
matches, nevertheless, teams should be more aware that bias is reduced when playing away. In addition, this study
offers some practical applications that can help football players, coaches, and match officials better understand VAR
technology’s effects on HA and referee bias.
Keywords Referee decision, Video-replay technology, Decision making, Performance analysis, Match analysis

*Correspondence:
Qing Yi
yiqing1771@outlook.com
1
Department of Coaching Education, Faculty of Sport Sciences, Akdeniz
University, Antalya, Turkey
2
College of Physical Education, Dalian University, 116622 Dalian, China

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Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation (2024) 16:21 Page 2 of 7

Introduction that home teams have an important advantage [18, 19].

Football (i.e., soccer) is a global sport that attracts mil- Moreover, HA and referee bias have been demonstrated
lions of fans and players, but it also undergoes constant at different league levels [15, 20] and similarly in wom-
changes and innovations to meet new demands and en’s football [21]. However, some studies have suggested
opportunities [1]. Technology is a key factor in improv- that technology can reduce HA and referee bias by pro-
ing the quality, safety, and entertainment of sports, both viding more objective and accurate information [14]. For
on and off the pitch [2]. Some of the technological tools instance, goal-line technology can prevent errors in goal
used in football include additional assistant referee [3], decisions that could affect the outcome of a match [6].
goal line technology [4] and vanishing spray [5]. Among The Covid-19 outbreak worldwide led to the introduc-
these technologies, goal-line technology has substantially tion of VAR and the removal of spectators in many sports
improved referee decision-making in football, especially competitions [17, 22]. Many researchers have found that
when the ball is not visible due to obstacles [6]. HA decreases in ghost matches compared to matches
Although these technologies have been used over time, with spectators [16, 17, 20, 23, 24]. However, they did
referees’ decisions are still debated. In order to minimize not take into account the possible effect of VAR on HA.
this situation, Video assistant referee (VAR) technology Wunderlich et al. (2021) argued that HA persists even
has recently been introduced [7]. VAR is a match official without spectators, suggesting that other factors besides
in association football who reviews decisions made by the the influence of spectators on the team’s performance
referee using video replays. The VAR can only intervene or the referee’s decision-making contribute to HA [25].
in four match-changing situations: goals, penalty deci- Thus, there is a need for a better understanding of the
sions, direct red card incidents, and mistaken identity. effects of VAR technology on HA and referee bias. Fur-
The VAR contacts the referee through an earpiece and thermore, considering the specific characteristics of the
advises the referee to either confirm, change, or review leagues, the results of the Turkish league may be different
their decision. The referee can check the images on a from the others [26]. Moreover, to the best of our knowl-
pitch-side monitor before deciding. The referee always edge, no studies are currently available that investigate
has the final decision to accept or reject the VAR’s advice. this matter specifically concerning the Turkish Super
The VAR system aims to improve the accuracy and con- League. Therefore, this research aimed to check how
sistency of referee decisions and reduce injustice and VAR technology may have an impact on the mean scores
controversy [8]. of home and away teams in some performance indicators
Studies analyzing the impact of VAR on referee deci- (points, goals, fouls, yellow cards, red cards, offsides and
sions [9, 10] and football game [11–13] indicated that penalties), as well as to analyze the magnitude and direc-
VAR implementation leads to more accurate refereeing tion of the HA and a plausible referee bias in the Turkish
decisions [9] and a decrease in offsides, fouls, and yellow Super League.
cards [11]. Spitz et al. (2021) analyzed the impact of VAR
on the accuracy of referee decisions, examining the ref- Method
eree’s initial and final decisions after VAR intervention. Match sample
According to the study the accuracy rate of the referees’ This study analyzed 918 matches before VAR was intro-
final decisions increased from 92.1 to 98.3% after VAR duced in the 2018–2019 season and 920 matches after
intervention [9]. However, while there is some evidence VAR was introduced. In the seasons from 2015 to 16 to
that VAR has some impact on football game, Lago-Peñas, 2019–2020, 306 matches were played each season. In the
Gómez (12) stated that the impact of VAR on elite-level 2020–2021 season, 420 matches were played, and in the
play remains relatively negligible. 2021–2022 season, 380 matches were played. Matches
In football, the impact on home advantage (HA) and played without fans (n:492) during Covid-19 were
referee bias is considered one of the most debated issues excluded from the analysis to control for the possible
related to this technology [14]. HA is a phenomenon influence of spectator presence on HA and referee bias.
where home teams are believed to have an advantage over
away teams due to crowd support and familiarity with Procedure
the venue. On the other hand, the performance of away The study used a retrospective-quantitative and obser-
teams is affected due to travel fatigue and psychological vational (descriptive) study design with two indepen-
pressure from home fans. Another phenomenon related dent groups (seasons with and without VAR) and seven
to HA is referee bias, which affects referees’ decisions dependent variables (points, goals, fouls, yellow cards,
due to crowd noise and social pressure from home fans red cards, offsides, and penalties). The study evaluated
[15]. Recently, HA has been the topic of research in sev- HA with points and goals, and referee bias with yellow
eral sports, particularly football [16, 17]. Several authors cards, red cards, offsides, and penalties. HA was also
have demonstrated the existence of HA and emphasized computed using Pollard’s method [27], which expresses
Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation (2024) 16:21 Page 3 of 7

the proportion of points won at home out of the total variables, there was no statistically significant or equiva-
points won at home and away [19].The InStat Scout lent difference between the two groups (p >.05) for both
(InStat®), a database with high inter-observer [28] and the t-test and TOST. The ESs for these variables were
inter-operator reliability [29], was used to collect the very small (0.00 to 0.06), indicating negligible differences
data. This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki between the groups. The Bayes factors for these variables
and received ethical approval from the Akdeniz Univer- were very large (7.51 to 19.02), indicating substantial to
sity Social and Humanities Scientific Research and Publi- strong evidence for the null hypothesis.
cation Ethics Committee (2023-14/325). Table 3 compares the data of away teams in the sea-
sons with and without VAR. Fouls were the only variable
Statistical analysis that showed a statistically significant difference between
The data were analyzed with Jamovi version 2.3.18.0 (The the groups (p <.001) for both the t-test and TOST. This
Jamovi project) and each variable’s mean and standard variable had a large ES of 0.69 and a Bayes factor of 0.00,
deviation were reported. The normality of the data was which supported the alternative hypothesis. However,
tested with the Shapiro-Wilk test (p <.05). Two-sample the means of this variable were not statistically equiva-
t-tests and two one-sided tests (TOST) analysis [30] were lent. None of the other variables had a statistically signifi-
used to compare the groups for each variable. A small cant or equivalent difference between the groups (p >.05)
effect size (ES) (Cohen’s d ± 0.20) was set as the bound- for the t-test and TOST. These variables had very small
ary value for this study. The alternative hypothesis H1: ESs (0.00 to 0.07) and large Bayes factors (5.95 to 19.02),
(− 0.20 < d < 0.20) states that the true effect is within the which favored the null hypothesis.
equivalence bounds, meaning that the compared means The introduction of VAR does not significantly impact
are practically similar, and it is tested against the com- HA, as the seasons with (59.8%) and without VAR
posite null hypothesis H0: (d ≤ − 0.20 ∪ d ≥ 0.20) that (59.5%) have comparable HA values.
states that the true effect is large enough to be of inter-
est. If TOST method could reject this null hypothesis, it Discussion
would be said that the difference between home and away The VAR system was introduced to improve the accuracy
teams was statistically equivalent [31]. and consistency of referee decisions and reduce injus-
The ESs were computed with Cohen’s d and the Bayes tice and controversy. It has been gradually introduced in
factors (BF01) were calculated to evaluate the evidence for many leagues since the 2017-18 season and used in the
or against the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is sup- Turkish Super League since 2018–2019 [10]. Despite the
ported by anecdotal, substantial, strong, very strong and numerous studies on how VAR affects match perfor-
decisive evidence when the Bayes factors (BF01) are 1–3, mance, the impact of VAR on HA remains largely unex-
3–10, 10–30, 30–100, > 100 respectively [32]. plored. This research explored how VAR affected HA and
referee bias in football seasons and found that VAR did
Results not significantly change these phenomena. This study
The results indicated that home team outperformed away also analyzed the differences between home and away
team on average regarding points and goals variables, teams in seasons with and without VAR. The results
which was statistically significant (p <.001). However, the showed that fouls were the only variable significantly
ESs were moderate, and the Bayes factors supported the decreasing for both teams after VAR was introduced. The
alternative hypothesis of difference (BF01 = 0.00). In addi- groups had no significant or equivalent difference for all
tion, away teams faced more yellow cards and penalties other variables, such as goals, shots, cards, etc.
(against) than home teams in both seasons, with or with- The first research to comprehensively focus on HA
out VAR, indicating a possible referee bias. The Table 1 and referee bias in the Turkish Super League pointed to
implied that HA and referee bias were present in both the home advantage in the Super League [26]. Similarly,
groups and that VAR does not have a major impact on Işın and Gómez Ruano (24) emphasized that HA exists
the teams’ selected data. in the Turkish Super League but is reduced in matches
Table 2 compares the home team’s data in the seasons played behind closed doors (ghost matches), thus high-
before and after the introduction of VAR. It was stated lighting the importance of the role of the 12th man. More
that only one variable (fouls) has a statistically significant recently, Işın (15) underlined that HA at different league
difference between the two groups (p <.001) for both the levels in Turkish football continues regardless of the
t-test and TOST. The ES for this variable was 0.56, which league level. These results reveal that HA has existed in
is considered a medium effect. The Bayes factor for this Turkish leagues for many years and playing at home has a
variable was 0.00, indicating strong evidence for the significant advantage.
alternative hypothesis. There was no statistical equiva- The impact of VAR on home-field advantage is hard to
lence between the means of this variable. For all other estimate beforehand. One possibility is that VAR could
Table 1 Comparison of HA and referee bias in matches played with and without VAR
Variables a Descriptive statistics Independent Samples t-test TOST results for statistical equivalence
Home Team Away Team H0: (d ≤ − 0.20 U d ≥ 0.20) vs. H1: (-0.20 < d < 0.20)
M SD M SD t p ES BF01 (H0/H1) b Lower bound Upper bound Statistical equivalence
NO VAR (n: 918) Points 1.65 1.33 1.11 1.28 8.92 < 0.001 0.42 0.00 - t = 5.63 ns t = 12.21 ***
Goals 1.58 1.30 1.21 1.17 6.48 < 0.001 0.30 0.00 - t = 3.01 ns t = 9.951 ***
Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation

Fouls 15.64 4.24 15.63 4.41 0.05 0.961 0.00 19.04 Strong t = -0.94 ns t = 1.04 ns
Yellow cards 2.18 1.36 2.35 1.40 -2.63 0.009 -0.12 0.62 - t = -5.74 *** t = 0.48 ns
Red cards 0.12 0.34 0.15 0.42 -1.40 0.162 -0.07 7.24 Substantial t = -12.56 *** t = 9.76 *** X
Offsides 2.09 1.61 1.92 1.67 2.29 0.022 0.11 1.41 Anecdotal t = -0.32 ns t = 4.90 ***
Penalties 0.20 0.44 0.14 0.36 3.36 < 0.001 0.16 0.07 - t = -7.27 *** t = 13.98 *** X
VAR (n: 920) Points 1.63 1.31 1.11 1.25 8.70 < 0.001 0.41 0.00 - t = 5.34 ns t = 12.05 ***
(2024) 16:21

Goals 1.58 1.28 1.19 1.12 7.04 < 0.001 0.33 0.00 - t = 3.47 ns t = 10.61 ***
Fouls 13.36 3.81 12.80 3.75 3.21 0.001 0.15 0.12 - t = 2.07 ns t = 4.34 ***
Yellow cards 2.11 1.37 2.25 1.39 -2.13 0.033 -0.10 2.02 Anecdotal t = -5.24 *** t = 0.98 ns
Red cards 0.12 0.36 0.15 0.039 -1.31 0.191 -0.06 8.16 Substantial t = -12.78 *** t = 10.16 *** X
Offsides 1.99 1.62 1.86 1.52 1.81 0.071 0.08 3.78 Substantial t = -0.92 ns t = 4.53 ***
Penalties 0.23 0.49 0.17 0.40 3.14 0.002 0.15 0.14 - t = -6.50 *** t = 12.78 *** X
a
All data presented on a per-match basis
b
Computed considering a one-sided null hypothesis
M: Mean, SD: Standard Deviation, ES: Cohen’s d effect size, BF01: Bayes Factor
P-values legend: *p <.05; **p <.01, ***p <.001; ns: not significant (p >.05)
Page 4 of 7
Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation (2024) 16:21 Page 5 of 7

reduce the tendency of referees to favor the home team

Statistical equivalence
in crucial match events and thus make the game fairer.
H0: (d ≤ − 0.20 U d ≥ 0.20) vs. H1: (-0.20 < d < 0.20) Even though referee bias is not explicitly stated, the main
aim of VAR was to “decrease injustice” in referee deci-
sions, implying that bias may be a hidden motive for VAR
TOST results for statistical equivalence

implementation [33]. This study found that home teams

had significantly more points and goals than away teams
X
X

X
X

X
before and after VAR’s introduction. This means that the
HA that existed before VAR was not reduced by it and
Upper bound

suggests that VAR is not effective in lowering HA. This

t = 13.16 ***

t = 12.24 ***
t = 3.72 ***
t = 3.35 ***

t = 4.21 ***

t = 4.02 ***
t = 7.95 *** study also found that home teams got fewer yellow cards
and more penalties than away teams with or without
VAR. This indicates some referee bias in favor of home
teams in the seasons without VAR, which continued in
the seasons with VAR. With the introduction of VAR,
both home and away teams had fewer yellow cards and
Lower bound

more penalties, but the number of red cards stayed the

t = -12.21***

t = -10.52***
t = 11.03 ns

t = -1.28 ns
t = -3.31***

same. The main reason for this result is that the referees’
t = -2.79**

t = -2.08*

independent judgment could explain what appeared to be

referee bias in the Turkish Super League in the seasons
without VAR. Because after the introduction of VAR, all
referee decisions were affected in a similar way and direc-
Substantial
Substantial

tion for both teams. Using data from 16 leagues, Abbate,

Strong
Strong

Strong
Strong

Cross (33) examined how VAR systems affect HA in foot-

BF01 (H0/H1) b

ball. They found that VAR had a negligible impact on HA,

Independent Samples t-test
Table 2 Comparison of home team’s data in the seasons before and after the introduction of VAR

even though it changed some match statistics for both

17.13
19.07

10.86
19.07

teams. They argued that VAR only covers a few events

0.00

7.51
8.41

that can influence match outcomes and that the observed

differences between teams in goals, wins and yellow cards
-0.06
0.02
0.00
0.56
0.05
0.00
0.06

may reflect the effect of fans on players rather than the

ES

referee. Unlike these findings, a weak association was

found between the introduction of VAR and the reduc-
< 0.001

tion of HA in the Chinese Super League. However, the

0.641
0.983

0.286
0.987
0.170
0.199

authors argue that VAR may still have some effect on

p

mitigating HA and referee bias [34]. This is because

home matches [35] and crowd noise can sway the refer-
M: Mean, SD: Standard Deviation, ES: Cohen’s d effect size, BF01: Bayes Factor
12.10

-1.28
0.47
0.02

1.07
0.02
1.37

ees’ judgment [18] and make them favor the home team
t

P-values legend: *p <.05; **p <.01, ***p <.001; ns: not significant (p >.05)

more often [36]. Using data from 2448 matches played

in the four seasons before and after the introduction of
VAR (n: 920)

1.31
1.28
3.81
1.37
0.36
1.62
0.49

VAR, Dufner, Schütz (14) examined the presence of HA

SD

in terms of match outcomes and referee bias indicators.

Descriptive statistics

Computed considering a one-sided null hypothesis

HA was evident in points won, goals scored, and yellow

13.36
1.63
1.58

2.11
0.12
1.99
0.23

cards given before VAR was introduced but not after

M

VAR was implemented for any of the indicators.

All data presented on a per-match basis

The introduction of VAR was associated with reduced

NO VAR (n: 918)

1.33
1.30
4.24
1.36
0.34
1.61
0.44

fouls and offsides for both teams, as shown in this and

SD

previous research [14, 34]. This may be because VAR

allows players to see the referees’ decisions on the screen
15.64
1.65
1.58

2.18
0.12
2.09
0.20

and allows referees to change their decisions after watch-

M

ing the video. Knowing that referees can review their

mistakes with the help of VAR, players may have been
Yellow cards
Variables a

more careful to avoid fouls [11] and offsides. In addition,

Red cards

Penalties
Offsides

assistant referees are cautious when making an offside

Points
Goals
Fouls

decision. They avoid making a decision that is not 100%

b
a
Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation (2024) 16:21 Page 6 of 7

certain, as they know that VAR will review the play to

Statistical equivalence
determine whether it is truly offside.
H0: (d ≤ − 0.20 U d ≥ 0.20) vs. H1: (-0.20 < d < 0.20) Some limitations to this study should be considered. As
a results of studies on the impact of VAR on referee bias
are inconsistent across leagues, this may depend on fac-
TOST results for statistical equivalence

tors such as referee training, home crowd size, weather,

and environmental conditions, which vary from league
X
X

X
X
X
to league. The current study only examined the effects of
VAR on HA and referee bias in the Turkish Super League,
Upper bound

which may not reflect the general impact of VAR on foot-

t = 15.87 ***

t = 10.71 ***
t = 3.47 ***
t = 4.16 ***

t = 4.61 ***

t = 3.50 ***
t = 9.79 *** ball. Therefore, future research trends should explore
VAR’s HA and referee bias by focusing on data from mul-
tiple tournaments or leagues. Future research could also
investigate the effects of VAR on home advantage and
referee bias, using a different approach such as the mixed
model. Besides that, it would be interesting to analyze
Lower bound

other contextual variables such as team quality, as well as

t = -10.44***

t = -12.69***
t = 13.77 ns
t = -1.54 ns
t = -3.31***
t = -3.33***

the type of competition. Finally, this study did not control

t = -1.87*

for some aspects, such as psychological and other perfor-

mance indicators. Therefore, there is a need to consider
psychological and other performance indicators in future
Substantial

Substantial

studies. Additionally, coaches and players should be ana-

lyzed for their opinions on the implementation and its
Strong
Strong

Strong
Strong

effects on performance.
BF01 (H0/H1) b

-
Independent Samples t-test

Conclusion
Table 3 Comparison of away team’s data in the seasons before and after the introduction of VAR

19.02
17.51

18.91
13.72
0.00
5.95

6.73

This study analyzed the effect of VAR on HA and referee

bias in football. The findings of our study showed that,
with or without VAR, home teams had an advantage over
-0.07
0.00
0.02
0.69
0.07
0.01
0.04

away teams in points and goals, and away teams faced

ES

more referee bias regarding yellow cards and penal-

ties (against). We also found that referees favored home
< 0.001

teams in the seasons without VAR, and this favoritism

0.938
0.678

0.125
0.895
0.415
0.147

continued in the seasons with VAR. Yet, referees’ inde-

p

pendent decisions rather than external pressure can

explain this referee bias in the Turkish Super League, as a
M: Mean, SD: Standard Deviation, ES: Cohen’s d effect size, BF01: Bayes Factor
14.82

-1.45
0.08
0.42

1.53
0.13
0.81

similar effect continued after VAR.

t

P-values legend: *p <.05; **p <.01, ***p <.001; ns: not significant (p >.05)

In conclusion, the VAR technology only allows the ref-

eree to correct the referee’s decision for clear and obvious
VAR (n: 920)

0.039
1.25
1.12
3.75
1.39

1.52
0.40

errors. This implies that, during the match, the referee’s

SD

discretion in making minor decisions might favor the

Descriptive statistics

Computed considering a one-sided null hypothesis

home team and contribute to their home advantage.

12.80
1.11
1.19

2.25
0.15
1.86
0.17

Therefore, rather than reducing the HA, VAR may cor-

M

rect critical errors in favor of the away team. As a result,

All data presented on a per-match basis

the VAR technology is unlikely to have a significant effect

NO VAR (n: 918)

1.28
1.17
4.41
1.40
0.42
1.67
0.36

in reducing HA in the Turkish Super League.

SD

Author contributions
AI: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Methodology, Writing–
15.63
1.11
1.21

2.35
0.15
1.92
0.14

original draft, Writing– review & editing. QY: Funding acquisition, Supervision,
M

Writing– review & editing. Both authors approve the submitted version.

Funding
Yellow cards
Variables a

There was no funding associated with this research.

Red cards

Penalties
Offsides
Points
Goals
Fouls

b
a
Işın and Yi BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation (2024) 16:21 Page 7 of 7

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