BF 260
BF 260
INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
1. Answer ANY FIVE (5) questions from the given SEVEN (7) questions.
4. FULL CREDIT will only be given to clearly shown work given to arrive at the correct FINAL answer.
DO NOT TURN THE QUESTION PAPER UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO.
QUESTION ONE
The table gives the compressive strength to the nearest gram of 50 samples of a metal spring:
73 23 82 42 105 80 49 75 35 76
98 67 38 45 89 7 63 51 44 32
22 172 95 53 13 117 17 37 58 55
15 60 25 69 33 51 28 19 19 78
46 64 33 28 60 9 59 31 16 27
(a) Arrange the data in groups 0 -20, 20 - 40, 40 - 60 and so on. (8 marks)
(b) Calculate the mean and median compressive strength. (6 marks)
(c) Find also the range and the semi – interquartile range. Which of these measures of dispersion would be
more suitable in this case? (6 marks)
(20 marks)
QUESTION TWO
(a) An ordinary pack of cards used in a game of cards contains 52 cards arranged in suits of 13 cards each.
The suits are called hearts, diamonds, spades and clubs. The first two suits are red and the last two are
black. The face value of the 13 cards in each suite are 2,3,4,…..,10, jack, queen, king and ace.
Using the example of a single card drawn from a pack of ordinary playing cards, illustrate both the addition
rules and one of the multiplication rules of probability. (8 marks)
(b) A company has 800 employees, 25% are skilled and the rest are unskilled. 35% of the totals have been with
the company for more than 15 years and the rest for less. Of those who have been with the company for
more than 15 years, 45% are skilled.
(20 marks)
QUESTION THREE
(a) Over a long period of time a drug has been effective in 20% of cases in which it has been prescribed. If 5
patients are treated by this drug find the probability that it will be effective for
(i) At least four patients; (4 marks)
(ii) None of the patients; (2 marks)
(iii) 1 or 2 patients; (3 marks)
(iv) At most three patients. (3 marks)
(b) The average number of errors on a page of a book is 1.2. Calculate the probability that a page will have 0,
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. Assume that the number of errors follow the Poisson distribution.
(8 marks)
(20 marks)
QUESTION FOUR
(a) Suppose the outer diameter of certain ball bearings produced by a manufacturing process is approximately
normally distributed with mean equal to 5.6 cm and standard deviation equal to 3.5 cm. if the diameter of
this type of ball bearing must not be less than 4.40 cm and not more than 6.48 cm to be accepted, what
percentage of the bearings produced by this process must not be accepted.
(6 marks)
(b) A certain university expects to receive 1350 first year student applications for the coming year. It can be
safely assumed that the school certificate points of these applicants are adequately approximated by a
normal distribution with a mean of 9 and standard deviation of 3. If the university decides to admit the top
15% by school certificate points, what is the minimum school certificate points that will be required for
admission. (7 marks)
(c) The mean weight of sacks of raw materials is 550kg and the standard deviation 65 Kg. assuming the
weights are normally distributed, calculate
(i) The proportional of sacks whose weight is between 360 kg and 450 kg (3 marks)
(ii) The proportional of sacks whose weight is less than 600 kg (2 marks)
(iii) The proportional of sacks whose weight is more than 500 kg (2 marks)
(20 marks)
QUESTION FIVE
(a) A banking firm has found that 75% of its customers respond to initial requests for confirmation of their bank
account balances. A simple random sample of 49 customers is sent requests for confirmation.
(i) What is the probability that 65% or more respond? (5 marks)
(ii) What is the probability that between 60% and 85% respond? (7 marks)
(iii) Find the 99% confidence interval for the proportion of customers responding to the initial requests
for confirmation of their balances. (4 marks)
(b) What are the four properties of a good estimator? Explain briefly. (4 marks)
(20 marks)
QUESTION SIX
(a) A customer arrival data have been taken by the owner of a small restaurant. The arrivals per minute are:
Arrivals between 08 00 a m – 17 00 hrs Observed frequency
0 18
1 12
2 19
3 9
4 10
5 6
Use the chi – square procedure at 5% level of significance to test if the sample was taken from a Poisson
distribution.
(10 marks)
(b) A company has tested marketed three new types of soup in selected stores over a period of 1 year. The
table records sales achieved (in millions of kwacha) for each of the three soups in each quarter of the year.
Quarter
1 2 3 4
X 19.5 26.3 32.7 21.9
Y 23.9 26.3 27.9 21.4
Z 27.5 31.5 22.7 17.5
State clearly and test the null hypothesis that the population mean sales are the same for all three types of
soup at the 5% level of significance.
(10 marks)
(20 marks)
QUESTION SEVEN
(a) Find the equation of a ‘least square line’ to fit the following data. Use it to estimate the production of
copper in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
Year Copper production(millions of tons)
2006 77.6
2007 95.9
2008 99.6
2009 89.0
2010 107.8
2011 115.8
2012 122.6
2013 99.3
2014 127.0
2015 126.2
(10 marks)
(b) Consider the following payoff table, where entries represent profits in millions of kwacha. Also ,
𝑃(𝑆1 ) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝑆2 ) = 0.3 and 𝑃(𝑆3 ) = 0.3
States of Nature
Decision alternatives 𝑆1 𝑆2 𝑆3
𝑎1 10 8 9
𝑎2 0 5 8
𝑎3 6 2 7
END OF PAPER
STATISTICAL FORMULAE
A) Descriptive Statistics:
ii) mean =
fx grouped data
f
x
2
2
nx
iii) S2 sample variance.
n 1
2 2 population variance
x2
iv)
N
n x x
MAD =
i
v) ungrouped data
i 1 n
n xi x
vi) MAD = fi grouped data
i 1 f i
N
Fp i
Median = L+
2
vii)
fmedian
Where L = lower class boundary
i = class width
i) (1 )%CI for ; X Z
2 n
S
ii) (1 )%CI for ; X t
2 n
12 2
iii) (1 )%CI for 1 2 is ; ( X 1 X 2 ) Z
2 n1 n2
S12 S22
iv) (1 )%CI for 1 2 ; ( X X 2 t n 1
2 n1 n2
and df = n1 n2 2.
pq
v) (1 )CI % for population proportion P; Pˆ Z
2
n
Sd
vi) (1 )CI % for paired difference d t , n 1
2 n
C) ANOVA
i) One-way
SSTotal y
y 2
2
SSTrt
T i
2
y 2
ni N
ii) Two-way
SSB
B i
2
y 2
ni N
xy n
x y
i) b= The slope of the regression line
x
x
2
2
a y b x The intercept
n xy x y
n x
r =
x n y 2 y
2 2 2
6 d 2
r 1
n(n 2 1)
iii) (1 )% Prediction interval for the individual and mean values respectively
(1 )% PI ; yˆ t / 2, n 2 S x / y 1
1 xp x 2
n var( x)
yˆ t / 2, n 2 S x / y
1 xp x
2
n var( x)
E) Probability Distributions
E ( X ) np , x2 npq
xe
P( X x) = , where x = 0, 1, 2 . . .
x!
E (X ) and Var ( X )
1 1
P( x a) ea , E ( X ) , Var ( X )
2
=
P1qo 100
Po qo
Paasche’s price index
=
Pq 1 1
100
Pq o 1
w p p 1
v) Weighted index 0
100 where w are weights and p1 are price relatives.
w p0
F) Chi-Squared
2
( o e) 2
c
e
P( B / Ai ) P( B)
P( Ai / B) n
B / A P( B)
i
i
H) Exponential Smoothing
New forecasted value = Old forecasted value + (Actual Value – Old forecasted Value)
df\area 0.995 0.99 0.975 0.95 0.9 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01
1 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.016 0.102 0.455 1.323 2.706 3.841 5.024 6.635
2 0.010 0.020 0.051 0.103 0.211 0.575 1.386 2.773 4.605 5.991 7.378 9.210
3 0.072 0.115 0.216 0.352 0.584 1.213 2.366 4.108 6.251 7.815 9.348 11.345
4 0.207 0.297 0.484 0.711 1.064 1.923 3.357 5.385 7.779 9.488 11.143 13.277
5 0.412 0.554 0.831 1.145 1.610 2.675 4.351 6.626 9.236 11.071 12.833 15.086
6 0.676 0.872 1.237 1.635 2.204 3.455 5.348 7.841 10.645 12.592 14.449 16.812
7 0.989 1.239 1.690 2.167 2.833 4.255 6.346 9.037 12.017 14.067 16.013 18.475
8 1.344 1.647 2.180 2.733 3.490 5.071 7.344 10.219 13.362 15.507 17.535 20.090
9 1.735 2.088 2.700 3.325 4.168 5.899 8.343 11.389 14.684 16.919 19.023
10 2.156 2.558 3.247 3.940 4.865 6.737 9.342 12.549 15.987 18.307 20.483 23.209
11 2.603 3.053 3.816 4.575 5.578 7.584 10.341 13.701 17.275 19.675 21.920 24.725
12 3.074 3.571 4.404 5.226 6.304 8.438 11.340 14.845 18.549 21.026 23.337 26.217
13 3.565 4.107 5.009 5.892 7.042 9.299 12.340 15.984 19.812 22.362 24.736 27.688
14 4.075 4.660 5.629 6.571 7.790 10.165 13.339 17.117 21.064 23.685 26.119 29.141
15 4.601 5.229 6.262 7.261 8.547 11.037 14.339 18.245 22.307 24.996 27.488 30.578
16 5.142 5.812 6.908 7.962 9.312 11.912 15.339 19.369 23.542 26.296 28.845 32.000
17 5.697 6.408 7.564 8.672 10.085 12.792 16.338 20.489 24.769 27.587 30.191 33.409
18 6.265 7.015 8.231 9.390 10.865 13.675 17.338 21.605 25.989 28.869 31.526 34.805
19 6.844 7.633 8.907 10.117 11.651 14.562 18.338 22.718 27.204 30.144 32.852 36.191
20 7.434 8.260 9.591 10.851 12.443 15.452 19.337 23.828 28.412 31.410 34.170 37.566
21 8.034 8.897 10.283 11.591 13.240 16.344 20.337 24.935 29.615 32.671 35.479 38.932
22 8.643 9.542 10.982 12.338 14.041 17.240 21.337 26.039 30.813 33.924 36.781 40.289
23 9.260 10.196 11.689 13.091 14.848 18.137 22.337 27.141 32.007 35.172 38.076 41.638
24 9.886 10.856 12.401 13.848 15.659 19.037 23.337 28.241 33.196 36.415 39.364 42.980
25 10.520 11.524 13.120 14.611 16.473 19.939 24.337 29.339 34.382 37.652 40.646 44.314
26 11.160 12.198 13.844 15.379 17.292 20.843 25.336 30.435 35.563 38.885 41.923 45.642
27 11.808 12.879 14.573 16.151 18.114 21.749 26.336 31.528 36.741 40.113 43.195 46.963
28 12.461 13.565 15.308 16.928 18.939 22.657 27.336 32.620 37.916 41.337 44.461 48.278
29 13.121 14.256 16.047 17.708 19.768 23.567 28.336 33.711 39.087 42.557 45.722 49.588
30 13.787 14.953 16.791 18.493 20.599 24.478 29.336 34.800 40.256 43.773 46.979 50.892
F Distribution Table
α = 0.05
df2/df 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 24 30 40 60 120 INF
1
1 161.448 199.500 215.707 224.583 230.162 233.986 236.768 238.883 240.543 241.882 243.906 245.950 248.013 249.052 250.095 251.143 252.196 253.253 254.314
2 18.513 19.000 19.164 19.247 19.296 19.330 19.353 19.371 19.385 19.396 19.413 19.429 19.446 19.454 19.462 19.471 19.479 19.487 19.496
3 10.128 9.552 9.277 9.117 9.014 8.941 8.887 8.845 8.812 8.786 8.745 8.703 8.660 8.639 8.617 8.594 8.572 8.549 8.526
4 7.709 6.944 6.591 6.388 6.256 6.163 6.094 6.041 5.999 5.964 5.912 5.858 5.803 5.774 5.746 5.717 5.688 5.658 5.628
5 6.608 5.786 5.410 5.192 5.050 4.950 4.876 4.818 4.773 4.735 4.678 4.619 4.558 4.527 4.496 4.464 4.431 4.399 4.365
6 5.987 5.143 4.757 4.534 4.387 4.284 4.207 4.147 4.099 4.060 4.000 3.938 3.874 3.842 3.808 3.774 3.740 3.705 3.669
7 5.591 4.737 4.347 4.120 3.972 3.866 3.787 3.726 3.677 3.637 3.575 3.511 3.445 3.411 3.376 3.340 3.304 3.267 3.230
8 5.318 4.459 4.066 3.838 3.688 3.581 3.501 3.438 3.388 3.347 3.284 3.218 3.150 3.115 3.079 3.043 3.005 2.967 2.928
9 5.117 4.257 3.863 3.633 3.482 3.374 3.293 3.230 3.179 3.137 3.073 3.006 2.937 2.901 2.864 2.826 2.787 2.748 2.707
10 4.965 4.103 3.708 3.478 3.326 3.217 3.136 3.072 3.020 2.978 2.913 2.845 2.774 2.737 2.700 2.661 2.621 2.580 2.538
11 4.844 3.982 3.587 3.357 3.204 3.095 3.012 2.948 2.896 2.854 2.788 2.719 2.646 2.609 2.571 2.531 2.490 2.448 2.405
12 4.747 3.885 3.490 3.259 3.106 2.996 2.913 2.849 2.796 2.753 2.687 2.617 2.544 2.506 2.466 2.426 2.384 2.341 2.296
13 4.667 3.806 3.411 3.179 3.025 2.915 2.832 2.767 2.714 2.671 2.604 2.533 2.459 2.420 2.380 2.339 2.297 2.252 2.206
14 4.600 3.739 3.344 3.112 2.958 2.848 2.764 2.699 2.646 2.602 2.534 2.463 2.388 2.349 2.308 2.266 2.223 2.178 2.131
15 4.543 3.682 3.287 3.056 2.901 2.791 2.707 2.641 2.588 2.544 2.475 2.403 2.328 2.288 2.247 2.204 2.160 2.114 2.066
16 4.494 3.634 3.239 3.007 2.852 2.741 2.657 2.591 2.538 2.494 2.425 2.352 2.276 2.235 2.194 2.151 2.106 2.059 2.010
17 4.451 3.592 3.197 2.965 2.810 2.699 2.614 2.548 2.494 2.450 2.381 2.308 2.230 2.190 2.148 2.104 2.058 2.011 1.960
18 4.414 3.555 3.160 2.928 2.773 2.661 2.577 2.510 2.456 2.412 2.342 2.269 2.191 2.150 2.107 2.063 2.017 1.968 1.917
19 4.381 3.522 3.127 2.895 2.740 2.628 2.544 2.477 2.423 2.378 2.308 2.234 2.156 2.114 2.071 2.026 1.980 1.930 1.878
20 4.351 3.493 3.098 2.866 2.711 2.599 2.514 2.447 2.393 2.348 2.278 2.203 2.124 2.083 2.039 1.994 1.946 1.896 1.843
21 4.325 3.467 3.073 2.840 2.685 2.573 2.488 2.421 2.366 2.321 2.250 2.176 2.096 2.054 2.010 1.965 1.917 1.866 1.812
22 4.301 3.443 3.049 2.817 2.661 2.549 2.464 2.397 2.342 2.297 2.226 2.151 2.071 2.028 1.984 1.938 1.889 1.838 1.783
23 4.279 3.422 3.028 2.796 2.640 2.528 2.442 2.375 2.320 2.275 2.204 2.128 2.048 2.005 1.961 1.914 1.865 1.813 1.757
24 4.260 3.403 3.009 2.776 2.621 2.508 2.423 2.355 2.300 2.255 2.183 2.108 2.027 1.984 1.939 1.892 1.842 1.790 1.733
25 4.242 3.385 2.991 2.759 2.603 2.490 2.405 2.337 2.282 2.237 2.165 2.089 2.008 1.964 1.919 1.872 1.822 1.768 1.711
26 4.225 3.369 2.975 2.743 2.587 2.474 2.388 2.321 2.266 2.220 2.148 2.072 1.990 1.946 1.901 1.853 1.803 1.749 1.691
27 4.210 3.354 2.960 2.728 2.572 2.459 2.373 2.305 2.250 2.204 2.132 2.056 1.974 1.930 1.884 1.836 1.785 1.731 1.672
28 4.196 3.340 2.947 2.714 2.558 2.445 2.359 2.291 2.236 2.190 2.118 2.041 1.959 1.915 1.869 1.820 1.769 1.714 1.654
29 4.183 3.328 2.934 2.701 2.545 2.432 2.346 2.278 2.223 2.177 2.105 2.028 1.945 1.901 1.854 1.806 1.754 1.698 1.638
30 4.171 3.316 2.922 2.690 2.534 2.421 2.334 2.266 2.211 2.165 2.092 2.015 1.932 1.887 1.841 1.792 1.740 1.684 1.622
40 4.085 3.232 2.839 2.606 2.450 2.336 2.249 2.180 2.124 2.077 2.004 1.925 1.839 1.793 1.744 1.693 1.637 1.577 1.509
60 4.001 3.150 2.758 2.525 2.368 2.254 2.167 2.097 2.040 1.993 1.917 1.836 1.748 1.700 1.649 1.594 1.534 1.467 1.389
120 3.920 3.072 2.680 2.447 2.290 2.175 2.087 2.016 1.959 1.911 1.834 1.751 1.659 1.608 1.554 1.495 1.429 1.352 1.254
inf
3.842 2.996 2.605 2.372 2.214 2.099 2.010 1.938 1.880 1.831 1.752 1.666 1.571 1.517 1.459 1.394 1.318 1.221 1.000