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Carter, John - Scalper Buys & Sells

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100% found this document useful (1 vote)
191 views42 pages

Carter, John - Scalper Buys & Sells

Uploaded by

dprolim
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Disclosures

„ This webinar is a service offered to existing and prospective CyberTrader brokerage customers. It will discuss risk management
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information presented in light of their individual circumstances and objectives, including personal risk tolerances and
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95 Points
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SCALPER BUYS AND SELLS—
WHEN ONLY A QUICK
CONFIRMATION WILL DO

Identifying and Profiting from


Changes in Trend without Catching
95 Points

a Falling Knife or Stepping in Front


of a Freight Train.
What We Will Cover
„ Key Trading Strategy for the YM:
„ Key Intraday Indicators I Watch

„ One Key Setup I follow

„ Money Management Techniques

„ Trading CBOT Mini-Sized Dow vs. Emini S&P


„ Attitude of a Trader: The make or break factor
„ Questions/Answers/More Information
My Background
„ I have traded actively for 19 years
„ Full Time Trader Since 1996
„ Started financial market research firm,
www.tradethemarkets.com in 1999
„ CTA and Principle in Razor Trading, a private
money management firm
„ Started off as stocks and options trader, now
trade mostly futures because of greater flexibility
Key Intraday Indicators
for Trading the Mini
Sized Dow
ƒ A large part of what dictates my intraday trades
is determined by the action of the key intraday
indicators that I watch. They are as follows:
ƒ TICK (measures net buying/net selling NYSE)
ƒ TIKI (measures net buying/net selling DOW)
ƒ Put/Call (measures the ratio of calls vs. puts)
ƒ TRIN (measures up/down volume on NYSE)
ƒ TRINQ (measure up/down volume on Nasdaq)
ƒ Sector Sorter List (measures sector performance
and overall market strength or weakness)
TICK 5 Minute Chart

Audio Alerts at +/- 600, 800, 1000 and 1200 Ticks


TICK TIPS
ƒ + or – 400 can be noise
ƒ Pay attention over +800 or -800.
ƒ If you are long and you get a +1000 tick reading,
consider closing your trade and taking profits
ƒ If you are short and you get a -1000 tick reading,
consider closing your trade and taking profits
ƒ Use +1000 or -1000 readings to consider new
trades in the opposite direction of the tick
ƒ Look for higher highs/lower lows to confirm
trend
TIKI 5 Minute Chart
TIKI TIPS
ƒ + or – 20 can be noise and may be ignored
ƒ Pay attention over +26 or -26. This is indication of a
buy or sell program. Highest are + or – 30.
ƒ If you are long and you get a +28 or high reading,
consider closing your trade and taking profits
ƒ If you are short and you get a -28 or lower reading,
consider closing your trade and taking profits
ƒ Use +28 or -28 readings to consider new trades in the
opposite direction of the tick
ƒ TIKI is faster than the TICK. Early indicator.
Put/Call Intraday Chart (over 5 days)
Put/Call TIPS
ƒ Look for extreme readings: Over 1.0 may put a “floor”
in the market – consider covering shorts and go long.
(Extreme put buying: Too many bears)
ƒ Under .50 can put a “ceiling” on the market. Consider
closing longs and go short. (Extreme call buying: Too
many bulls)
ƒ Trend is important: You want the Put/Call to move in
the direction of the market in order to confirm it.
ƒ Rising put/call in a rising market confirms the trend
(traders buying puts into a rally, gives fuel for short
covering), while falling put/call in a rising market sets
up a reversal (Vice Versa).
ƒ After 10:00 a.m. you may get a more accurate reading as
the listed stocks need to all open for trade.
TRIN 15 Minute Chart (4 days)
TRINQ 15 Minute Chart (4 days)
TRIN & TRINQ TIPS
ƒ $TRIN measures up/down volume (buying/selling
pressure) of NYSE, $TRINQ measures Nasdaq
ƒ General: Over 1.0 is bearish, under 1.0 is bullish
ƒ Not Important! What is important is the trend. Is it
moving higher (increase in selling pressure) or moving
lower (increase in buying pressure) from where it
started the day? The “trend of the trins” is critical.
ƒ $TRIN close over 2.0 usually results in bounce next
day. No bounce? Market is in trouble.
ƒ Close under 0.50 usually results in selling the next day.
No selling? Bears are in trouble.
SECTOR SORTER LIST
SECTOR SORTER LIST TIPS
ƒ Watch number of sectors that are green vs. red
(up vs. down) at any given time.
ƒ Often times while indexes consolidate, the
number of sectors up or down on the day will
change. This is a heads up as to the direction of
the next move.
ƒ Any move without the Banks (BKX), Brokers
(XBD) and Semiconductors (SOX) most likely
will not last.
ƒ Sort on a Net % change basis
ƒ Very useful when playing gaps (see gap plays)
Hourly & Daily Intraday Tick Backup Quad Monitor
Charts of the Email, Charts and Market Laptop For Stocks and
Stock Indexes Internet Internals Execution

20
Scalper Buys and Sells
„ Most reversals take place after 3 consecutive
higher closes or 3 consecutive lower closes.
„ Intraday or intrabar highs and lows not
important—it’s the closes that matter.
„ I want to see where the action “closes” because
that represents capitulation as opposed to mere
probing of highs and lows.
Scalper Buys and Sells
„ For a downtrending market, once you see three
higher closes in a row, on any time frame, that is
a signal to go long.
„ To exit the long, you can wait for the
corresponding signal to go short (3 lower closes
in a row) or scale out.
„ I use lower time frames for scalping (144 tick,
233 tick) and higher time frames for larger
moves.
Scalper Buys and Sells
„ Use in conjunction with the internals we
discussed at the beginning of this presentation.
„ If TRIN is going higher – that is bearish, so
ignore scalp longs and focus on scalp shorts.
„ If in a scalper buy on the long side and you get a
+1000 tick reading – exit at least half the trade.
Scalper Buys and Sells
„ Set up a 24-hour chart on intraday charts so
the overnight activity can be accounted for in
this indicator setup. This can be used in all
time frames. The larger the time frame, the
larger the parameters and potential move. For
daily charts I will use the regular session hours.
„ Ignore overnight session signals
Scalper Buys and Sells
„ After three consecutive higher closes, I go
long at the market, at the close of the third bar
in the sequence.
„ The trade is valid until three consecutive lower
closes occur, at which point I exit the trade.
95 Points
95 Points
95 Points
95 Points
Why the Dow (YM) over S&P (ES)?
„ Both contracts have the same P&L movement
„ 1 point on S&P is about 10 points on Dow
„ 1 point on ES = $50
„ 10 points on YM = $50 (10 points x $5/point)
„ ES moves 1 point in 4 increments
„ YM moves same 10 points in 10 increments
„ (NQ moves 1 point in 2 increments)
„ Trading YM vs. ES allows 6 extra price levels
„ Cuts spread by 60%; that cash goes to the trader
YM vs. ES (continued)

„ Easy to watch all 30


Dow Stocks: Sort by
highest to lowest net
change
„ Getting a feel of all 500
S&P stocks is almost
impossible.
„ Point Factor: 5 points vs.
½ point
Attitude of a Trader
„ Right attitude will make or break a trader
„ Biggest obstacles are Greed and Euphoria
„ Greed Kills
„ Greed takes over and mistakes kick in:
overtrading, not sticking to parameters, yelling at
screen
„ All you can eat buffet: no reason to overload
your plate on 1 trip; you can keep going back
Attitude of a Trader (cont.)
„ Euphoria is worse than Greed
„ Things are going great – so double up!
„ This is like eating a great dinner. It tastes really
great.
„ So, to make your life even better you order a
second plate
„ This will only end in one way:
„ Badly: Develop a business plan and stick to it!
Final Thoughts
„ Futures are the future; get familiar with them
„ Futures provide flexibility of different markets
„ CBOT Mini-Sized Dow is a great way to take
advantage of moves in the stock indexes
•Live Audio Internet
Trading Room
•Plays and market
analysis in real time
•New members must
be voted in

•Market Newsletters

Multi-Day
Live Trading
Workshops
June 25-28
Chicago

www.tradethemarkets.com
Book Released January 2006
Q & A/Contact Information
For Seminar, Newsletters,
Live Trading Room,
FREE Excel Pivot Spreadsheet,
Traders Business Plan
Dow@aweber.com
John Carter
Trade the Markets.com
jcarter@tradethemarkets.com
www.tradethemarkets.com
888-898-8118
Trade Futures at CyberTrader
Futures at CyberTrader
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„ mini-sized Dow (CBOT®) /YM
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