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INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS
FM 1042
MDM FAZILAH BINTI AHMAD

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Chapter 5

Discrete Probability Distributions

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 Chapter 5 Overview

Introduction
◼ 5-1 Probability Distributions
◼ 5-2 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and
Expectation
◼ 5-3 The Binomial Distribution
◼ 5-4 Other Types of Distributions

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 Chapter 5 Objectives
1. Construct a probability distribution for a random variable.
2. Find the mean, variance, standard deviation, and expected value for a
discrete random variable.
3. Find the exact probability for X successes in n trials of a binomial
experiment.
4. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the variable of a
binomial distribution.
5. Find probabilities for outcomes of variables, using the Poisson,
hypergeometric, and multinomial distributions.

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 5.1 Probability Distributions

◼ A random variable is a variable whose values are determined by

chance.
◼ A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a
random variable can assume and the corresponding probabilities
of the values.
◼ The sum of the probabilities of all events in a sample space add
up to 1. Each probability is between 0 and 1, inclusively.

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 Example 5-1: Rolling a Die
Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single die.

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 Example 5-2: Tossing Coins
Represent graphically the probability distribution for the sample
space for tossing three coins.
.

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5-2 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and
Expectation
MEAN:  =  X  P ( X )

VARIANCE:
 2 =   X 2  P ( X ) −  2

STANDARD DEVIATION:

𝜎 = ෍ 𝑋2 ⋅ 𝑃 𝑋 − 𝜇2

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Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and
Expectation

Rounding Rule
The mean, variance, and standard deviation should be rounded to
one more decimal place than the outcome X.

When fractions are used, they should be reduced to lowest terms.

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 Example 5-5: Rolling a Die
Find the mean of the number of spots that appear when a die is
tossed.

.
 =  X  P( X )
= 1  16 + 2  16 + 3  16 + 4  16 + 5  16 + 6  16

= 21
6 = 3.5
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 Example 5-8: Trips of 5 Nights or More
The probability distribution shown represents the number of trips of five nights
or more that American adults take per year. (That is, 6% do not take any trips
lasting five nights or more, 70% take one trip lasting five nights or more per
year, etc.) Find the mean.

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Example 5-8: Trips of 5 Nights or More

 =  X  P( X )

= 0 ( 0.06 ) + 1( 0.70 ) + 2 ( 0.20 )

+ 3 ( 0.03) + 4 ( 0.01)

= 1.2

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 Example 5-9: Rolling a Die
Compute the variance and standard deviation for the probability
distribution in Example 5–5.

.  2 =   X 2  P ( X )  −  2
 = 1  + 2  + 3  + 4  16
2 2 1
6
2 1
6
2 1
6
2

+ 5  + 6  − ( 3.5 )
2 1 2 1 2
6 6

 = 2.9 ,  = 1.7
2

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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio
A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host is unable to talk (i.e.,
during a commercial) or is talking to a person, the other callers are placed on
hold. When all lines are in use, others who are trying to call in get a busy signal.
The probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 people will get through is shown in the
distribution. Find the variance and standard deviation for the distribution.

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Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio

 = 0 ( 0.18 ) + 1( 0.34 ) + 2 ( 0.23)

+ 3 ( 0.21) + 4 ( 0.04 ) = 1.6
 = 0 ( 0.18 ) + 1 ( 0.34 ) + 2 ( 0.23)
2 2 2 2

+ 3 ( 0.21) + 4 ( 0.04 ) − (1.6 )

2 2 2

 = 1.2 ,  = 1.1
2

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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio
A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host is unable to
talk (i.e., during a commercial) or is talking to a person, the other
callers are placed on hold. When all lines are in use, others who are
trying to call in get a busy signal.

Should the station have considered getting more phone lines

installed?

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 Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio
No, the four phone lines should be sufficient.
The mean number of people calling at any one time is 1.6.
Since the standard deviation is 1.1, most callers would be
accommodated by having four phone lines because µ + 2 would be
1.6 + 2(1.1) = 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8.
Very few callers would get a busy signal since at least 75% of the
callers would either get through or be put on hold. (See
Chebyshev’s theorem in Section 3–2.)

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 Expectation

◼ The expected value, or expectation, of a discrete

random variable of a probability distribution is the
theoretical average of the variable.
◼ The expected value is, by definition, the mean of the
probability distribution.

E(X) =  = X P(X)

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 Example 5-13: Winning Tickets
One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for four prizes of $100, $50, $25, and
$10. After each prize drawing, the winning ticket is then returned to the pool of
tickets. What is the expected value if you purchase two tickets?

Gain X $98 $48 $23 $8 - $2

Probability P(X) 2 2 2 2 992
1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

E ( X ) = $98  1000
2
+ $48  1000
2
+ $23  1000
2

+ $8  1000
2
+ ( −$2 )  1000
992
= −$1.63
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 Example 5-13: Winning Tickets
One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for four prizes of $100, $50, $25, and
$10. After each prize drawing, the winning ticket is then returned to the pool of
tickets. What is the expected value if you purchase two tickets?
Alternate Approach
Gain X $100 $50 $25 $10 $0
Probability P(X) 2 2 2 2 992
1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

E ( X ) = $100  1000
2
+ $50  1000
2
+ $25  1000
2

+ $10  1000
2
+ $0  1000
992
− $2 = −$1.63
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 5-3 The Binomial Distribution

◼ Many types of probability problems have only two possible

outcomes or they can be reduced to two outcomes.
◼ Examples include: when a coin is tossed it can land on heads or
tails, when a baby is born it is either a boy or girl, etc.

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 The Binomial Distribution
The binomial experiment is a probability experiment that
satisfies these requirements:
1. Each trial can have only two possible outcomes—success or
failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each
other.
4. The probability of success must remain the same for each
trial.

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Notation for the Binomial Distribution
P(S) The symbol for the probability of success
P(F) The symbol for the probability of failure
p The numerical probability of success
q The numerical probability of failure
P(S) = p and P(F) = 1 – p = q
n The number of trials
X The number of successes
Note that X = 0, 1, 2, 3,...,n
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 The Binomial Distribution
In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X
successes in n trials is
n!
P( X ) =  p q
X n− X

( n - X )! X !
or
P( X ) = n Cx  p q X n− X

number of possible probability of a

desired outcomes desired outcome

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 Example 5-16: Survey on Doctor Visits
A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has
visited a doctor in any given month. If 10 people are selected at
random, find the probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor
last month.
n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X
( n - X )! X !
n = 10,"one out of five" → p = 15 , X = 3
3 7
10!  1  4
P ( 3) =      = 0.201
7!3!  5  5

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 Example 5-17: Survey on Employment
A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois)
found that 30% of teenage consumers receive their spending money
from part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the
probability that at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.
n = 5, p = 0.30,"at least 3" → X = 3, 4,5
 ( 0.30 )  ( 0.70 ) = 0.132 P ( X  3) = 0.132
5!
P ( 3) =
3 2

2!3!
5! +0.028
P ( 4) =  ( 0.30 )  ( 0.70 ) = 0.028
4 1

1!4! +0.002

P ( 5) =
5!
 ( 0.30 )  ( 0.70 ) = 0.002
5 0 = 0.162
0!5!
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 Example 5-18: Tossing Coins
A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads, using
Table B.
n = 3, p = 2 = 0.5, X = 2 → P ( 2 ) = 0.375
1

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 The Binomial Distribution
The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a variable that
has the binomial distribution can be found by using the
following formulas.
Mean:  = np
Variance:  = npq2

Standard Deviation:  = npq

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 Example 5-23: Likelihood of Twins
The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported
that 2% of all American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births
is taken, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number of births
that would result in twins.

 = np = 8000 ( 0.02 ) = 160

 2 = npq = 8000 ( 0.02 )( 0.98) = 156.8 = 157
 = npq = 8000 ( 0.02 )( 0.98 ) = 12.5 = 13

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 5-4 Other Types of Distributions

◼ The multinomial distribution is similar to the binomial

distribution but has the advantage of allowing one to compute
probabilities when there are more than two outcomes.
n!
P( X ) =  p1 X1  p2 X 2  p3 X 3 pk X k
X1 ! X 2 ! X 3 ! Xk !
◼ The binomial distribution is a special case of the multinomial
distribution.

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 Example 5-24: Leisure Activities
In a large city, 50% of the people choose a movie, 30% choose dinner and a
play, and 20% choose shopping as a leisure activity. If a sample of 5 people is
randomly selected, find the probability that 3 are planning to go to a movie, 1 to
a play, and 1 to a shopping mall.

n!
P( X ) =  p1 X1  p2 X 2  p3 X 3 pk X k
X1 ! X 2 ! X 3 ! Xk !
5!
P( X ) =  ( 0.50 ) ( 0.30 ) ( 0.20 ) = 0.15
3 1 1

3!1!1!

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 Other Types of Distributions
◼ The Poisson distribution is a distribution useful when n is
large and p is small and when the independent variables occur
over a period of time.
◼ The Poisson distribution can also be used when a density of
items is distributed over a given area or volume, such as the
number of plants growing per acre or the number of defects in
a given length of videotape.

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 Other Types of Distributions
Poisson Distribution
The probability of X occurrences in an interval of time, volume, area,
etc., for a variable, where λ (Greek letter lambda) is the mean
number of occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.), is
e−   X
P( X ;) = where X = 0,1, 2,....
X!
The letter e is a constant approximately equal to 2.7183.

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 Example 5-27: Typographical Errors
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page
manuscript, find the probability that a given page contains exactly 3 errors.

 With 200 errors distributed over 500

First, find the mean number of errors.
pages, each page has an average of
 =errors
500 = 0.4
200
per page.
−0.4
( 0.4 )
− 3
e  X
e
P( X ; ) = = = 0.0072
X! 3!
Thus, there is less than 1% chance that any given page
will contain exactly 3 errors.

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 Other Types of Distributions

◼ The hypergeometric distribution is a distribution

of a variable that has two outcomes when
sampling is done without replacement.

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 Other Types of Distributions
Hypergeometric Distribution
Given a population with only two types of objects (females and males, defective and nondefective,
successes and failures, etc.), such that there are a items of one kind and b items of another kind and a+b
equals the total population, the probability P(X) of selecting
without replacement a sample of size n with X items of type a and n-X items of type b is

C X  b Cn − X
P( X ) = a

a + b Cn

The letter e is a constant approximately equal to 2.7183.

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 Example 5-31: House Insurance
A recent study found that 2 out of every 10 houses in a neighborhood have no
insurance. If 5 houses are selected from 10 houses, find the probability that
exactly 1 will be uninsured.
a = 2, a + b = 10 → b = 8 , X = 1, n = 5 → n − X = 4
C X  b Cn − X
P( X ) = a

a + b Cn

C1  8C4 2  70 140 5
P( X ) = 2
= = =
10 C5 252 252 9

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◼ Life Insurance A 35-year-old woman purchases a $100,000 term life
insurance policy for an annual payment of $360. Based on a period life table
for the U.S. government, the probability that she will survive the year is
0.999057. Find the expected value of the policy for the insurance company.

◼ =0.999057 x 100,000 =99905.7

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◼ A student takes a 20-question, multiple-choice exam with five choices for each question and
guesses on each question. Find the probability of guessing at least 15 out of 20 correctly.
Would you consider this event likely or unlikely to occur? Explain your answer.

◼ 1/5 for each question

1 ,2, 3, 4, ……, 15

At least 15 correct
X = 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
= (1/5)^15 + (1/5)^16 + (1/5)^17 + (1/5)^18 + (1/5)^19 + (1/5)^20

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◼ 14. Destination Weddings Twenty-six percent of couples who plan to marry this year are planning destination weddings. In a random
sample of 12 couples who plan to marry, find the probability that
◼ a. Exactly 6 couples will have a destination wedding
◼ b. At least 6 couples will have a destination wedding
◼ c. Fewer than 5 couples will have a destination wedding
(x=0, 1, 2, 3, 4)

◼ 26% plan to marry

◼ Sample, n = 12 couples

n!
◼ A) X = 6 :
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X
◼
◼
Binomial prob distribution
n = 12, p = 0.26, 1-0.26 = 0.74
( n - X )! X !
◼ 12!/ (12-6)!6! x (0.26)^6 x (0.74)^(12-6) = 0.047
◼ 12!/ (12-6)!6! = 12C6

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 TUTORIAL EXERCISES

Section 5-1 (pg no. 263-264) : 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 25

Section 5-2 (pg no. 272-273) : 3, 5, 11

Section 5-3 (pg no. 282-284) : 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 19, 22, 27

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 Thank you

The only way to learn mathematics is to do mathematics.

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