NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Meaning: Nuclear proliferation means increase and expansion of three things;

I. Nuclear war heads.

II. Fissionable material, uranium: (235).

III. Nuclear technology or informations:

Historical background:

When world war-II was moving to its logical end, USA dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan
primarily to assert its super power status over the world. After world war-II, a cold war started in
which USA and USSR were involved in super power struggle. In 1949, Soviet Union also
exploded its nuclear weapons. Now the two powers were nuclear power and the cold war become
more and more dangerous. Both the states started a quest for stockpiling nuclear weapons for
their national security and international importance. In 1952, UK detonated its nuclear weapons.
In 1960, France became the nuclear power while China achieves the nuclear power status in
1964. The proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology threatened the goal of a peaceful
world that the UN and other world leaders had envisioned. Now the world peace and security
was at stake with that advent of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, which referred to as
the weapons of mass destruction.

The matter got further complicated when nuclear weapons and technology was achieved by
developing countries. India tested its nuclear nukes in 1974 and 1998. Pakistan detonated its
nuclear devices in 1998. North Korea conducted nuclear explosion in 2006. Israel is also a non-
declared nuclear power while Iran believed to be having uranium enrichment program.

Rational behind achieving nuclear weapons:

Two reasons can be cited for achieving the nuclear weapons;

1. Nuclear Deterrence:

It is presumed that the possession of nuclear weapons gives a state a strong deterrence capability
through nuclear weapons; a state can prevent its enemy from taking a hostile action against it.

2. Political and diplomatic influence:

The possessions of nuclear weapons afford the state with political and diplomatic influence in
international politics. They give you an edge over other states not having nuclear weapons.

3. Preserve national security:

It is also believed that in this anarchic world Order, the possession of nuclear weapons is
important for the country survival and existence.

Types of nuclear proliferation:

They are two types of nuclear proliferation;

1. Horizontal nuclear proliferation:

Horizontal nuclear proliferation is the one in which non nuclear weapon states strive to acquire
nuclear weapons or developing the capability and material for producing them.

2. Vertical nuclear proliferation:

It means that when nuclear weapon states try to increase their nuclear stockpiles and develop
their nuclear technology further.

Various treaties to stop nuclear proliferation:

1. Partial test Ban treaty (PTBT):

USA, USSR and UK on August 5, 1963, signed it. Its purpose was to prohibit any nuclear
explosion either for military or non-military purposes in the atmosphere, outer- space or under-
water or in any environment if explosion cause radioactive waste. However, it permitted
underground nuclear tests or explosions.

2. Nuclear non-proliferation treating (NPT):

It was a multi-lateral treaty initially signed by five permanent members of Security Council on
July 1st 1968 and enforced in 1970. It is based on three principles;
I. Non-proliferation: it prohibited the transfer of nuclear weapons to other states. Nuclear states
shall not help other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

II. Disarmament: states with nuclear weapons will pursue nuclear disarmament. The nuclear
energy can be used for peaceful purpose. According to this treaty the state that conducted their
nuclear test before January 1 1967 are to be the considered nuclear states. India, Pakistan, Israel,
south Sudan has not signed it while North Korea withdrew from it in 2003. India, Pakistan, Israel
and North Korea regard it as discriminatory deal. Today the number of signatories of this treaty
is 188.

There is a disappointment with the limited progress on nuclear disarmament. States possessing
nuclear weapons are estimated to have 22000 nuclear warheads in combined capacity and have
shown reluctance to disarm it.

The discriminatory attitude of USA has also made nuclear non-proliferation a failure. In 2006,
USA signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India. In response, India agreed to place
all its civil nuclear facilities under IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards. This
agreement allowed India to purchase nuclear fuel and technology from USA. Indo-US nuclear
deal has come to force from 2008. However, when it comes to Iran, USA is not allowing it to use
nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

3. Strategic Arms limitation talks (SALT-1):

These were actually the talks, which started from 1969 and continued to 1972. USA and USSR
participated in these talks. This resulted in the signing of anti ballistic missile system (ABM)
treaty in 1972. Through ABM treaty both party agreed to prohibit the development and testing of
any sea based, Air based, land based or space based ABM system. However, according to USA,
the Russia did not follow the provision of the treaty. Consequently, USA withdrew from this
treaty in June 2002 during the tenure of bush junior.

4. Strategic arms limitation talks (SALT-2):

These talks started in 1972 and continued until 1979. Finally in 1979 at Vienna, an agreement
was signed between us president jimmy carter and USSR leader Brezhnev. The purpose of the
agreement was to eliminate MIRV missiles (multiple dependently target-able re-entry vehicles).

MIRV is more dangerous than ballistic and cruise missile. They can carry multiple nuclear
warheads and hit multiple targets at one time. They can also do multiple nuclear explosions at
one time. However, none of the countries ratified this agreement and finally SALT-II failed.
5. Threshold Test Ban Treaty-1974 (TTBT):

It was a bilateral treaty signed between USA and USSR in 1974. Its purpose was to fix threshold
or intensity for underground nuclear weapons tests. Both USA and USSR agreed not to conduct
any underground tests having a yield (energy) exceeding 150 kilotons.

6. Peaceful nuclear explosion treaty-1976 (PNET):

It was also a bilateral treaty signed by USA and USSR in 1976. Its purpose was to govern
nuclear explosion that are carried out outside nuclear test sites and which may therefore be
considered for peaceful purpose.

Both TTBT and PNET mainly signed to supplement PTBT- 1963. PTBT had allowed only
underground nuclear tests and at particular sites. Now the question was what would be the
intensity of nuclear test and whether peaceful, nuclear test could be conducted outside the
nucleus sites or not?

TTBT fixed the intensity for nuclear test and PNET allowed peaceful nuclear explosions outside
the nuclear test sites. It must be remembered that PTBT had only allowed underground nuclear
tests at particular sites.

7. Nuclear suppliers group (NSG):

Nuclear suppliers group is a multi lateral export control regime that seeks to control the export of
sensitive nuclear materials that could foster nuclear weapons development. It was formed in
1974. As of today, it has 48 members’ countries. India is trying hard to become its member for
three reasons;

I. India wants to become a player in international arena where norms for nuclear commerce are
laid down.

II. If India become a member of NSG, it will have access to international market for export and
import of nuclear materials.

III. India would be able to get access to office sophisticated foreign nuclear technology. all
nuclear based programs of India are presently based on indigenous technology.

Japan, UK, USA and France supported the inclusion of India in NSG. However, China is
opposing the inclusion of India in that group.

Pakistan applied for its membership on May 20 2016. China, turkey and Kazakhstan supported
Pakistan membership of NSG. However, many NSG members opposed Pakistan membership bid
because of its record of accomplishment including the Abdul Qadir Khan transfer of nuclear
technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

8. Intermediate range nuclear forces treaty- 1987 (INF):

It was bilateral treaty signed between USA and USSR by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Regan
in Iceland in 1987. Its purpose was to eliminate their stocks of intermediate range missile and
short range missiles, which are land based whether ballistic, or cruise missiles, which can carry
nuclear warheads.

The range of the missiles was fixed at 500 Km to 5500 km. the time limit was 3 years. USA
withdrew from treaty on August 2 2019. It was a successful treaty in nuclear non-proliferation.
By May 1991, the nations had eliminated 2692 missiles.

9. Strategic arms reduction treaty (START-I):

This treaty was concluded between USA in USSR in 1991, and came into force in 1994. its main
objective was to limit the nuclear war heads of both USA and USSR to 6000 and delivery
vehicles to 1600. This treaty also proved a success, because both the nation has disarmed 80% of
their strategic offensive arms. They fully abide by the treaty. George H. Bush (Bush senior) was
the president of the USA during this time. After 5 months of this treaty, USSR disintegrated.

10. Strategic arms reduction treaty (START-II):

It was a bilateral treaty between USA in Russia it offered to ban the use of multiple
independently targetible re-entry vehicles (MIRV) on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
it was signed in January 1993 at Moscow. It was not successful because Russia withdrew from it
in 2002 in response to us withdrawal from the ABM treaty.

11. Comprehensive test ban treaty-1996 (CTBT):

This treaty was concluded in 1996. It is the important treaty because it banned all types of
nuclear tests and explosions for both military and civilian purposes including underground
nuclear tests which were allowed before. It prohibited horizontal and vertical proliferation of
weapons. It also provided for nuclear disarmament. India, North Korea and Pakistan have not yet
signed the treaty. At present, 185 countries have signed it. It is not completely successful to ban
all types of nuclear tests in the world.
The CTBT also resulted into the formation of comprehensive test Ban treaty organization
(CTBTO). Its task is to promote CTBT. It monitors the violation of CTBT by member countries.

However, CTBT has not yet come into force because article XIV requires of the 44 states to
ratify it which are believe to be having nuclear reactors. The treaty will come into force when all
44 states that had nuclear facilities May ratify it. UN general assembly adopted the treaty in
1996. As of today, 36 such states have ratified the treaty. China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and USA
have signed it but not ratified the treaty. While Pakistan, India and north Korea have neither
signed nor ratified it.

Nuclear non-proliferation is an effort to eliminate the spread of nuclear weapons technology and
to reduce existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons among the states especially USA and Russia.

12. Strategic offensive Arms reduction treaty-2002 (SORT):

This treaty was signed between the USA and Russian federation in 2002. It came into force in
2003. it provided that both the countries would limit their strategic offensive arms ( mainly
nuclear war heads) between 1700 and 2200. According to this treaty, both countries reduced their
nuclear warheads upto 6000. It ceased to exist when new start treaty entered into force on
February 2011.

13. New START-2010 (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty):

New START superceded SORT-2002. It was concluded in 2010 between Russia and USA. It
came into force in 2011. According to this treaty, both the states agreed the following points;

I. the number of strategic nuclear missile launchers will be reduced by half.

II. the number of deployed strategic nuclear war heads would be limited to 1550.

III. A verification regime will be established.

The validity of this treaty will be up to 2021.

The Joe Biden has showed his willingness to extend new START with Russia for 5 years. New
START replaced SORT and also new START is the successor of START-I.

Analysis:
Proliferation of nuclear weapons and Technology is a Grave threat to international peace and
security. Non- proliferation efforts made so far are not productive. After NPT, India, Pakistan,
Israel and North Korea have become nuclear powers. Iran and Syria are believed to be
developing nuclear weapons. Why nuclear non-proliferation efforts have not been made
successful? Following Reasons can be attributed to it;

1. The role of big power is discriminatory. USA is emphasizing upon Pakistan to curtail its
nuclear Arsenal, while it has kept complete silence concerning India. Similarly, she is asking
Iran to roll back its nuclear program, while encouraging Israel to develop its nuclear Arsenal. In
2008, US entered into civil nuclear cooperation deal with India despite the fact that it has not
signed NPT. In addition to it, USA, Japan, France and UK are supporting India membership of
nuclear suppliers groups. At the same time, their attitude towards Pakistan is discriminatory.

2. The role of nuclear weapons States P5 is dubious. They are asking other states not to acquire
nuclear weapons, while they are not pursuing a complete program of nuclear disarmament as
envisaged by NPT. Until and unless they are committed, no effort concerning nuclear non-
proliferation would succeed.

3. Every state of the world regards nuclear deterrence as the most effective means of ensuring
national security. There is perception prevailing among non-nuclear States that possessions of
nuclear weapons would go a long way in securing their regional security. Syria is feeling itself
insecure against Israel; South Korea is feeling the same against North Korea; Iran has a security
concerns on the part of Israel.

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Nuclear weapons free zones or Denuclearize zones:

They are those regions of the world where acquiring, developing and testing of nuclear weapons
have you been disallowed through treaties. The reason for;

1. To contain bad effects on populated areas:

2. To stop the chain reaction among different countries:

3. To stop the probability of nuclear wars:

Nuclear weapons free zones in the world:

1. Antarctica.
2. Latin America (south America- 1967).

3. Southeast Asia- 1995: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

4. Nuclear free zone in the South Pacific- 1985: it includes; Australia, Fiji, Kiribati, New
Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Cook Island and Nauru.

5. African nuclear weapons free zones- 1996:

6. nuclear weapons free zone in Central Asia.

Arms Control:

It does not mean reducing arms and weapons. it means to acquire arms in a controlled manner.
Arms control is a restraint on a blind arms race. it allows you to increase your arms and weapons
in a controlled through mutual agreement.

Similarly, arms control means cooperative approach to armament policy instead of pursuing
blind race for arms.

The process of arms control could be unilateral, bilateral or multilateral. It can applied to
Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and also to conventional weapons. However, at present,
arms control is mainly applied to Weapons of mass destruction.

Nowadays, it is not applied to conventional weapons, which are necessary for national security.
It is the foremost right of every state to ensure its security and defence. Arms control contribute
to a more stable and calculable balance of power.

Armament VS Disarmament:

Armament is the policy of acquiring arms, increasing armed forces and overseas military bases
and spending heavily on military.

Armament creates an atmosphere of tension and distrust leading ultimately to fears and wars.
Armament was one of the causes of the world war-II.

Before world wars, European powers viz England, France, Germany and Russia etc. were in the
bid for acquiring sophisticated weapons. This created suspicion and fear and therefore World
War 1 and World War 2 resulted consequently.

After World War 2, both USA in USSR got involved in acquiring nuclear and hydrogen bomb,
ballistic and intercontinental missile. Cold war was very sensitive. Twice in a history of cold
war, the worlds saw itself on the brink of nuclear war. During the Korean War, the us
commander general McArther sought permission to drop nuclear bomb on North Korea. He was
not allowed but instead relieved by president Hairy Truman of his duties. Again, during Cuban
missile crisis, the threat of nuclear war loomed large on the world. but through successful
diplomacy it was averted.

Effects of armament:

1. Wastage of resources: Armament requires a lot of money and resources, and there is left no
money for development activities.

2. Threat to diplomatic process: Armament leads to the strengthening of army and the
weakening of democratic process. Army gets upper hands over democratic forces. For instance,
in Pakistan army is superior to democratic forces.

Disarmament:

Disarmament is the Antithesis of armament. It refers to the systematic plan for the reduction or
abolition of Armed forces, number of weapons, and military bases and expenditures. it is the act
of reducing, limiting or abolishing weapons and defence spending.

Difference between arms control and Disarmament:

Arms control allows acquiring arms and weapons under control regimes (laws, mutual
agreements and treaties) while disarmament seeks reduction in arms.

Arms control tries to stabilize the status quo; Disarmament seeks to disturb the status quo. It
changes the position of the countries concerned.

Arms control is conservative. It allows no change. Disarmament is radical. It brings change.

Need for Disarmament:

Armament promotes tension, fear and war while disarmament promotes easing of tension and
brings peace and trust among the nations.

Secondly, Disarmament saves the money and resources of the states paving the war for their
socio- economic development.
Efforts made for Disarmament:

Treaty of Westphalia (1648): states agreed that all existing fortification (difference bases)
would be abolished and no new fort will be made. First systematic proposal was given by czar of
Russia in 1816 but not accepted. President Wilson stressed on disarmament after World War 1 to
the lowest point consistent with domestic safety.

League of Nations also emphasized upon general disarmament.

UN charter also laid emphasize on regulation of arms. UNO has a separate office for
disarmament called the UN office for disarmament affairs. This implements the decision of the
general assembly on disarmament matters.

Atom for peace plan (1953): President Eisenhower of the US proposed to use atomic energy for
peaceful purposes.

Deterrence:

Deterrence is one of the most important concepts of international relations. Deterrence simply
refers to, the capability of a state to dissuade the other state to attack it or take an action hostile to
it. It is the art of convincing others not to do something under it. A state threaten the other state
with severe punishment concept if took a hostile action against it.

Deterrence is the threat of force in order to discourage an opponent from taking an unwelcome
action.

Deterrence is the act of discouraging an action or event through instilling fear of intense
consequences.

We can define Deterrence is the prevention of something especially attacks of other state by
having weapons to use as a threat.

History of Deterrence:

Deterrence is the old concept. It predates the advent of nuclear weapons. In the past, the states
would keep big armies; build fortifications (castles) and walls to prevent attacks of the other
states. Examples of direct deterrence are Pakistan and India, India and China etc.

Extended Deterrence:
In Extended Deterrence, the states protect its protégé against the perceived or expected attack of
other states. For instance, USA warned USSR not to attack Western Europe. At present, USA is
preventing Taiwan from the attack of China. Similarly, USA is backing South Korea against
security threats from North Korea.

Conclusion:

Nuclear deterrence cannot afford to be promoted because it incites states to acquire nuclear
weapons and may therefore facilitate third world war but it would be a nuclear war. If nuclear
weapons went into the hands of violent non-state actors, it would be a great threat to
international peace and security.

Nuclear deterrence would be at the cost of socio-economic development. It would be wise to

promote arms control and disarmament.

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