POPULATI

ON&MI
GRATI
ON
Cont
ent

POPULATI
ON MI
GRATI
ON
Popul
ati
oni
ndi
cat
ors Mi
grat
ion

Popul
ati
ongr
owt
h Pat
ter
nsofmi
grat
ion

Popul
ati
on–Resour
cer
elat
ionshi
ps Causes&i
mpactof
mi
grat
ion

Popul
ati
onheal
th&di
seases

Popul
ati
onpol
ici
es

A]POPULATI
ONI
NDI
CATORS

QN:Assesst
hei
mpor
tanceofpopul
ati
oni
ndi
cat
ors

:expl
ainf
act
orsaf
fect
ingpopul
ati
oni
ndi
cat
ors

BI
RTHRATE

-Thenumberofl
ivebi
rt
hsi
nayearpert
housandoft
hepopul
ati
on

C.
B.R = t
otalnumberofl
ivebi
rt
hsi
nyear X1000

Tot
alpopul
ati
on

-
Gener
all
yther
atei
shi
ghi
ndevel
opi
ngcount
ri
escompar
edt
odevel
opedcount
ri
es

Fact
orsi
nfl
uenci
ngbi
rt
hrat
eonagl
obalscal
e

(
i)Causesofhi
ghbi
rt
hrat
eindevel
opi
ngcount
ri
es.

-Sour
ceofl abour:infarmingcommuni t
iesmorechil
drenarebornandregardedas
l
abourforagricul
turalact
ivit
iesasmostoperati
onsarelabouri
ntensi
veasopposed
tomechanizedagr i
cult
ureindevelopednati
ons.

-Reli
giouspracti
cesandbel
ief
s:somerel
igi
onse.g.Cathol
icshaveanant
i-
abor
ti
on
stance(takenasacr i
me)hencemanyacci dent
alpregnanciesbecomeunwant
ed
chil
dren.Alsoapost
oli
csect
sencouragemorechil
dren.

-
Cult
uralbel
ief
s: i
nmanyAf r
icansoci
eti
eschildr
enar
er egardedasasignof
man/womanhoodhencemanyarebor
ninordert
ohaveahighersoci
alst
andi
ng.

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page1
-absence and ignor
ance i
n t
he use of f
ami
ly pl
anni
ng pr
ogr
ammes e.
g.
contracept
ives

-
highmortal
it
yr at
eamongi nf
ants:manybabiesar
ebor nant
icipati
ngt
hatsome
maysur
viveintoadul
thoodt
herebycont
ri
but
ingtoi
nfl
atedbi
rt
hr ate.

-
Earl
ymarri
ages:loweducat
ionl
evel
sandlackofeducati
onalfaci
li
ti
esr esul
ti
ngi
n
hi
ghschooldr
op-out
sandhenceearl
ymarr
iagesr
esult
inginlar
gefami l
ies

-
thedesi
reforamal
ehei
ral
soencour
agesmanybabi
est
obebor
nint
hesear
chf
or
aboychi
ld

-
low soci
alst
atusofwomen:Thisresul
tsi
nwomenbei
ngdeci
siont
aker
srat
her
t
hanmaker si
nmatter
sconcer
ningf
ami l
ypl
anni
ng.

-
demogr
aphicfactor
s[mor
epopul
ati
oni
nthesexual
lyact
ivegr
oup,l
owermal
eto
f
emaler
ati
o/sexrati
o]

-abor
ti
onisr egardedasil
legalinAfr
icaexceptf
orSouthAfr
ica,whil
stinZambia-
Angola-
Kenyai tslegali
ncer t
aincasesont hegroundsofhealt
h,educat
ionand
economicreasons

i
i)Fact
orsbehi
ndl
owbi
rt
hrat
einDevel
opedr
egi
onsandst
ates

-chi
ldren’
sri
ghts:chil
dren’s’r
ight
smakei texpensivet oraisethem resul
ti
ngin
couplescutt
ingontheirnumber .I
nthesamevein,enf or
cementofchil
dren’sri
ght
s
makest hem atot
all
iabil
it
yt ot
heparent
sresul
ti
nginl essbi
rthrat
e.

-
highsocialstat
usforwomen:womenaretakenatparwit
hmenandallhavesame
ri
ghtssucht hatnoneisabovet
heothermakingdeci
sionmaki
ngafami l
ymatter
opposedtoaone- si
dedaf
fai
r.

-educat
ionaladvancement :most peopl e spend moret i
me advanci
ng their
educati
on due t o enabl
ing envir
onment(abundance ofeducati
onalfaci
li
ti
es,
affor
dable,subsi
dised)t
herebyreduci
ngthei
ncidencer
ateofhavi
nglar
gefamil
ies

-
desi
ref
ormat
eri
alpossessi
on

-
widespr
eadavai
labi
li
tyofcont
racept
ivesandabundanceofknowl
edgeonf
ami
ly
pl
anni
ng

-
abor
ti
onwi
del
yaccept
edi
nmostdevel
opedst
ates.

DEATHRATE

-
ref
erst
onumberofdeat
hcasesoccur
ri
ngper1000peopl
eperyeari
napopul
ati
on.

C.
D.R.=Tot
alnumberofdeat
hsi
nayearX1000
POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page2
 Tot
alpopul
ati
on

-si
milar
lyto bir
thr ate;thi
sis also rel
ati
vel
y hi
gherin devel
oping countr
ies
comparabletodevelopedcountr
ies.Thissuggestt
hatoveragi venper i
odmor e
deathcasesarerecordedinLEDCst hanMEDCsowi ngtovari
ousr easonslar
gely
pinnedtoeconomicstateacount
ryfall
sint
o.

Mortali
ty:si
mil
arl
ytodeat
hrat
e,i
tref
erst
onumberofdeat
hsper
tai
ningt
oa
populat
ioninanar
ea

-i
tismeasuredbycrudedeat
hrat
e,l
if
eexpect
ancy,i
nfantmor
tal
it
yrat
e,ageand
sexspeci
fi
cdeathr
ates.

Measur
esofmor
tal
it
y/deat
hrat
e

 Li
feexpect
ancy

-i
st heaveragenumberofyear speoplewho wer eborni nthesameyearar
e
expectedtoli
ve.
-i
stheaveragenumberofyearsapersonisexpect
edtodieat
-gener
all
y,li
feexpect
ancyi
sloweri
nt heLEDCsandhigheri
ntheMEDCs.

QN:Wi t
hrefer
encetoexampl
essuggestr
easonsf
ort
hispat
ter
nconcer
ningl
if
e
expect
anci
esasabove.
 I
nfantMor
tal
it
yRat
e

-
numberofdeat
hcasesofper
sonsundert
heageof1yearper1000l
ivebi
rt
h

I
.M.
R = Tot
alnumberofi
nfant
sbel
owoneyearol
dX1000

Tot
alnumberofl
ivebi
rt
hs

 Mor
bidi
ty

-
numberofpeopl
eini
ll
-heal
thi
nagi
venar
ea/t
hedi
seasepr
eval
encer
atewi
thi
na
popul
ati
on.

-
diseasepreval
enceisi
nfl
uencedbyfactorssuchasdiet
aryandnutri
ti
on,
statusof
healt
hdeli
verysyst
emsamongot her
s,l
ivingcondi
ti
ons,per
sonalhygi
eneetc.

 Chi
ldMor
tal
it
yRat
e[TORESEARCH]

Fact
orsi
nfl
uenci
ngmor
tal
it
yrat
eonagl
obalscal
e

i
)Causeofhi
ghmor
tal
it
yrat
eindevel
opi
ngst
ates

-avai
labi
li
tyandaf
for
dabi
li
tyofmedi
cinesandheal
thcar
e:shor
tageofmedi
cinesand

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page3
medicalfaci
li
ti
esi
samajorchal
lengefaci
ngdevel
opi
ngcount
ri
esleadingtomanypeople
fai
li
ngt ogetbasi
cmedi
calexaminat
ionsandaccesstomedi
cinesresul
ti
nginescal
ated
deathtol
l.

-ver
yhi ghpatient-doctorrati
o:thi
sreducest heamountoft i
mespentbet weenpat
ients
anddoct or
st herebycompr omisi
ngservicedeli
very.Also,hi
ghr at
ioresul
tsininf
lated
medicalcarecoststhatar ebeyondthereachforthebulkofthepopul
ati
on.Asanexampl e
i
tcost$10 f orconsul t
at i
on atpubli
cheal t
hf aci
li
ti
esand $20 and abovef orpr
ivate
i
nsti
tuti
onsperconsul t
ationinZimbabwe.

-Inabili
tytof or
ecastnat uralhazards and inadequate emergency preparedness e.g.
CycloneDaneoi nZimbabwe2016- 2017r ai
nseasonwhi chclai
medl i
vesi nMat abel
eland,
fl
oodinginMuzar abaniisayearl
ydisaster,epidemicssuchaschol er
a,ebola,typhoi
dt hat
cl
aim hundredstot housandsofpeopleasar esul
tofincapacit
atedandinef f
ectivehealth
deli
verysyst
ems

-occurr
enceoffamineandpoordi
etsr
esul
tsi
nmanydeat
hsduet
ost
arvat
ion,
mal
nut
ri
ti
on
e.g.Somali
a,Et
hiopia.

-
poorsani
tati
on,uncl
eanandunsafesour
cesofwaterthatr
esul
tindi
seasese.
g.chol
era
bei
ngamaj orpr
oblem e.
g.Zi
mbabwe2008/9,
Hai
ti2011,
-
OTHERS

DEPENDENCYRATI
O

*pr
opor
ti
onoft
heeconomi
cal
lyact
ivegr
oupandt
heeconomi
cal
lyi
nact
ivegr
oup.

-
ther
ati
odet
ermi
nestheeconomi
cburdenoftheinact
ivepopul
ati
on,andi
tisver
y
hi
ghi
ndevel
opi
ngcount
ri
escomparedtodevel
opedones.

-
iti
scal
cul
atedasshownbel
ow:

D.
R=Chi
ldr
en(
0-14yr
s)+El
der
ly(
65yr
s+)X1000

Adul
ts(
15-
64yr
s)

-
dependencyl
oad/r
ati
oar
erel
atedt
othepopul
ati
onst
ruct
ure.

-Asacrudef igur
eitdoesnoteffecti
velyi
nfor
m popul ati
onplanner
sorevenpolicy
makers( government
).Inmostdevel opi
ngcount r
iesempl oymentratesarelow
suggest
ingt hatmostpeoplecategori
sedaseconomi call
yacti
vearei
nact ualf
act
partoft
heeconomi call
yinact
ivegroup.Inotherwor dst her
atiohasli
mitati
onsin
thati
tmakesuseofagegr oupsinsteadofcurrentempl oymentrat
es.

OTHERPOPULATI
ONI
NDI
CATORS

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page4
Natur
ali
ncrease(
Natur
aldecr
ease)-thi
sist
heposi
ti
vechangei
nthetot
alnumber
ofpeopl
ewher ebir
thrat
eisgreaterthandeat
hrate.Thi
sisdeter
minedusing
for
mulabel
ow:

Nat
uralI
ncr
ease= Cr
udeBi
rt
hRat
e-Cr
udeDeat
hRat
eX100

1000

Fert
il
it
yrat
e-t
hisi
sthenumberofbi
rt
hsi
nayearpert
housandwomenofchi
ld
beari
ngage

Fer
ti
li
ty-
thi
sist
heact
ualr
epr
oduct
iveper
for
manceofwomeni
nthechi
ldbear
ing
age

Fecundi
ty-
thi
sist
hepot
ent
ialofawomant
obearl
ivechi
ldr
en

Sexr
ati
o-t
hisi
sthenumberofmal
esperhundr
edf
emal
es

S.
R= Mal
epopul
ati
on X100

Femal
epopul
ati
on

-
asexrat
ioabove100showsmor
emal
esandaf
igur
ebel
ow 100showsmor
e
f
emal
es

-
sexrati
oalsoi
ndicat
eswhetherapopul
ati
onhasgott
hecapaci
tyt
oboom ornot
henceapopul
ati
ongrowt
hindicat
or.

Chil
dwomenr at
io-propor
ti
onofchi
ldr
enunderf
iveyear
stowomenofchi
ld
beari
ngage(
15-
45year
s)

Mat
ernalmort
ali
ty–(defi
ne)-thi
sissol
elydependentont
heeconomi
csi
tuat
ion
whi
chcompromiseheal
thstandar
dsofacountr
y.

Repl
acementrat
io-
ist
hel
eveloff
ert
il
it
yatwhi
chpopul
ati
onsr
epl
acet
hemsel
ves
atar
ati
oof2:1.

I
MPORTANCESOFPOPULATI
ONI
NDI
CATORS

 i
nfor
m gover
nmentonst
rat
egi
cpl
anni
ng,

-
needf
orschool
sifbul
kofpopni
scomposedofchi
ldr
enandyoungadul
ts

-
pri
ori
ti
seheal
thcar
eifdeat
hbydi
seasesi
spr
eval
ent

-
revampi
ngofboost
ingsoci
alameni
ti
essuchasent
ert
ainmentf
aci
li
ti
es,
old

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page5
 peopl
e’
shomes

-agr
icul
tur
alproduct
ioni
fpopul
ati
oni
sincr
easi
ngataf
ast
err
ateasaf
ood
securi
tymeasure.

 The i
nformati
on is used as a basi
sto appealforint
ernat
ionalai
d on
humanit
ariangroundssuchasfoodaid,medi
calai
detc.

 st
imul
ater
esear
chanddevel
opment

 Infor
mat i
onsuchasbi r
thrat
es,fer
ti
li
tyr
ate,r
eplacementr
ati
oarecrit
icalfor
populati
onpl anni
ngandpoli
cing.Thefamous1- chi
ldpol
ici
es(Chi
na),St op
at2( Singapore)popul
ati
onpoli
cieswereinfor
medbyconsi der
ati
onsf rom
theseindicat
ors.

 Somei ndi
cat
orsar
eabasi
sinr
ati
ngl
evel
sofeconomi
cdevel
opmentf
or
count
ri
es.

CONTRASTSI
NMORTALI
TYRATESWI
THI
NAPOPULATI
ON

i
. Menandwomen

-
general
lymenhavealowerl
if
eexpect
ancyt
hanwomenbecauseofthenat
ureof
t
heirwork,
poorhygi
eni
cpr
act
ices,
smoki
ng&dri
nki
ng,
pooreat
inghabi
ts.

i
i. I
ncomel
evel
s-

-l
owincomeear
nersf
indi
tdif
fi
cultt
oprovideallt
hebasicneeds,accesst
oheal
th
care,
atti
mesi
nfor
mati
oncomparabl
etohighincomeearner
s.

i
ii
. Raci
aldi
ff
erences

-t
hisi
smanif
estinallmult
i-
raci
alsoci
eti
essuchasZim,SouthAfri
ca,theUS
amongot
her
s.Reasonsar
emor eorl
essthesameandpi
nnedonaf
fl
uence.

i
v. Agegroups(chi
ldren,adultsandelder
ly:comparetheseondif
fer
entl
evel
si.
e.
economi
cal
lyact
ive&i nact
ive,
causesofdeat
hforeachagegr
oup)

v. r
eli
giousbackgr
ound

vi
. r
ural
it
esandur
bani
tes(
maker
efer
encet
odevel
opi
ng&devel
opedcount
ri
es)

MEASURESTAKENTOADDRESSQUALI
TYOFLI
FE

A]Rur
alar
eas

-
Ruralel
ect
ri
fi
cati
on:i
nSouthAfr
ica,Zi
mbabwe:onlyasmall%ageofr ur
alar
eas
havebeenprovi
dedwithpowert
odat eduetoresour
ceconstr
ains,hi
ghcostof

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page6
i
nstal
lat
ion t
o connecti
on wi
ththepowerli
ne,high el
ectr
ici
tycost
.Subsi
disi
ng,
usi
ngalter
nati
vesourcescanaddresst
hechall
engesfaced.

-
Providi
ngport
ablewat er:boreholedril
li
ngi nmostcommunalandcommer cial
far
mingareastosupplycleanwat erf
orpeople.However,f
ewbor ehol
eshavebeen
dri
ll
edperuni
tarea,somear ewornout /
damaged, poormaint
enance,cont
aminated
undergr
oundwatersources.Ti
meouswat erqual
it
ytesti
ngmustbedoneandl ocals
tobeempoweredonsuchknowl edge.

-
Roadconst ructi
on;improvesaccessi
bil
it
yoft hearea,unlockscommunicat
ion
barri
er,pr
omot eprovi
sionofgoodsandser vi
ces.Majorchallengeist
hatsome
roadsarenotbeingservi
cedregul
arl
ye.
g.Gokwe-Sanyatir
oad,Makondeet
c.

-Est
ablishmentofgrowt
hpoi
nts:oper
ati
ngasbusi
nesscent
reswher
ecommer
cial
acti
vit
iesareunder
taken

-Landr edist
ri
buti
on:Reducedpopul at
ionpressur
ei ncommunalar eas( Zvimba,
Mur ehwa,Gokwe,Chi hota,Seke…).Theprogram wasmeantt ounlockeconomi c
andempl oymentoppor t
uniti
esf ortherur
alpeoplesettl
ingthem onf erti
leand
productiveland.Chall
engesf acedincl
udelackofi nput
s,poornat
ur alresources
conservationmeasures(l
ackofsuchknowl edge)

B]Ur
banar
eas

-
indi
geni
sat
ion;cr
eat
inganeconomi
coppor
tuni
tyf
orone’
ssel
f.

-borehol
edril
li
ng:pr
ovi
dingportabl
ewaterinnewlyestabl
ishedsubur
bstoimprove
onsani t
ati
onincommuni ti
es.However
,lessborehol
eshavebeendr i
ll
edandmor e
arehavingwat erchal
lengese.g.Mabvuku-
Tafaraalong-ti
mepr obl
em,Rujekoin
Chinhoyi

-housi
ngschemes:var i
ousMuni ci
pali
ti
eshavemadeavai l
abl
el andforhousing
pr
oject
stoimpr oveonaccommodat i
onchall
engesinurbanar easandi nsome
ot
hercountr
ies.However,corr
upti
on,l
ackoftranspar
encyinall
ocati
onofst ands,
hi
ghcost,
andunser vi
cedlandaresomeofthechall
engessur
roundingthescheme.

-presi
dentialschol
arshi
ps:awar
dedtodisadvant
agedchil
dreninbothrur
al&ur
ban
areas.Itenhanceschancesofbeingabsorbedbylabourmarketorcr
eate
empl oyment .

POPULATI
ONDI
STI
BUTI
ONANDDENSI
TY

Popndistr
ibut
ionr
efer
stothespr
eadofpeopleoveranar
ea.I
ntechni
calt
ermsi
tis
thespat
ialspr
eadofpeopl
ewithvar
iat
ionsi
nconcentr
ati
ons.

Popndensi
tyr
efer
stot
het
otalnumberofper
sonsperuni
tar
ea.Ther
ati
ois

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page7
expr nkm2.I
essedi tiscal
cul
atedasbel
ow:
.
PD=t
otalnumberofpeopl
einanar
ea
Sur
facearea

Fact
orsAf
fect
ingPopul
ati
onDi
str
ibut
ion&Densi
ty

a)Physi
calf
act
ors

 Cl
imat
icf
act
ors

 Soi
lfer
ti
li
ty(mainr
easonbehi
ndhavi
ngdensel
ypopul
atedr
ural
areas
duetoproduct
ivel
and)

 Topography(comparefl
at,
rugged,
mount
ainoust
err
ains&
opport
uniti
esforset
tl
ement)

 Avai
labi
li
tyofwat
er(
act
ual&pot
ent
ialsour
ces)

 Nat
uralhazar
ds(
occur
rence&t
hei
rdi
str
ibut
ione.
g.f
loodpr
onear
eas
i
nZim)

b)Economi
cfact
ors

 Accessibil
it
y(road,
rai
l
,airt
ranspor
tnet
wor
ksar
efor
cesofat
tr
act
ion
forpeople,busi
ness&industr
y)

 I
ndust
ri
es(
amaj
orsour
ceofempl
oyment
)

 Miner
aloccurrence(inZim sometownsemergedduet
omi ni
ng
act
ivi
ti
ese.g.Zvishavane,Kadoma,Kwekwe,
Mhangura,Hwange)

c)Soci
o-pol
it
icalf
act
ors

 Conf
li
cts

 War
s

 Rel
igi
on

 Gover
nmentpol
ici
esal
linf
luencet
hespr
eadanddensi
tyof
popul
ati
ons

Popul
ati
ondi
str
ibut
ionanddensi
tyi
nZi
mbabwe

a)Mor
epeopl
ein:

-
highvel
d:East
ernHi
ghvel
d,cent
ralwat
er suggestr
shed( easons)
POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page8
 -
townsandci
tes(
i suggestr
easons)

-
mini
ngar
easandcommer
cialf
arms

b)Lesspeopl
ein:

-
lowvel
dregi suggestr
ons( easons)

-
rur
alar suggestr
eas( easons)

B]POPULATI
ONGROWTH

Focusar
eas Posi
ti
veandNegat
iveef
fect
sofpopul
ati
ongr
owt
h

Tr
endsi
nPopul
ati
ongr
owt
h[Demogr
aphi
cTr
ansi
ti
onModel(
DTM)
]

Det
ermi
nant
sofeconomi
cdevel
opment

I
mpact
sofpopul
ati
ongr
owt
hondevel
opment

THEDEMOGRAPHI
CTRANSI
TIONMODEL

QN:Expl
aincausesofpopul
ati
ongr
owt
h

:Expl
aint
het
rendi
npopngr
owt
hasdepi
ctedonDTM

-
a multi
li
ne gr
aph t
hatshows t
he changes i
nfert
il
it
y,mor
tal
it
y,and r
esul
tant
popul
ati
onchanges(gr
owth/
decl
ine)thatapopul
ati
onunder
goesasitdevel
ops
overt
ime.

-
4categor
ies(st
ages)ofpopulati
ontransiti
onarer epr
esent
edbyt hemodeland
r
ecent
lyahypothet
icalcat
egory5isi
ncl udedwherebybi r
thrat
efal
lsbel
owdeath
r
ateaswhatisbei
ngwi t
nessedinSwi
tzerland,Sweden&Ger many.

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page9
STAGE:1[
HighSt
ati
onar
ySt
age/
pre-
indust
ri
aler
a]

-
boththebi
rt
handdeat
hrat
efl
uct
uat
eatahi
ghl
evelt
husgi
vingal
owpopul
ati
on
gr
owth.

-hi
ghbi r
thrateisowedmucht o:l
ackofbi
rt
hcontrolmeasur
es, backwardr
eli
gious
&culturalbeli
efsthatpr
ohi
bituseofcontr
acept
ives,l
abourrequirementf
oragr i
c
acti
vit
ies,vi
ri
li
tyetc

-
highdeat hratesarear esultofshort
ageofmedi cines,hungerandstarvat
ion,
persi
stentwars,occurr
ence&r ecur
rentepidemi
cssuchaschol er
acoupledwi t
h
poorhealthcentr
estoaddresssuchissues,poorl
ivi
ngcondi t
ions&over
crowding
l
eadingtocompr omisedsani
tati
on

-
exampl
esi
ncl
udeEastAf
ri
canst
atessuchasSomal
ia&Et
hiopi
a

STAGE:2[
Ear
lyExpandi
ng]

-
charact
eri
sedbyasharpdecl
ineinmor
tal
it
yrat
ewher
easf
ert
il
it
yrat
eremai
ns
hi
gh.Thisr
esul
tsi
nrapi
dpopul
ati
ongr
owt
h.

-
mostAf
ri
canst
atesf
allundert
hisst
agei
ncl
udi
ngZi
mbabwe

-Factorsresult
ingi nadecl i
neofdeat hrateinclude:avai
labi
lit
yandaccessi bi
lit
yof
drugs,i mproved f ood securi
ty which reduce hungerand st arvat
ion,improved
communi cat
ion platfor
msf aci
li
tati
ng easyf l
ow ofgoods& ser vi
ces,improved
provisi
onofpor t
ablewat er(centr
ali
sedwat er&sewerwor ks,boreholedri
ll
ingin
ruralcommuni ties),f
reeandmassi mmuni sat i
onagainstkil
lerdi
seasesetc

QN:Suggestr
easonsf
oraper
sist
enthi
ghbi
rt
hrat
e

STAGE:3[
Lat
eExpandi
ngSt
age]
POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page10
-
deat
hrat
econtinuestofal
lthoughgradual
lyandbirt
hrat
efal
lrapi
dlyt
husgi
ving
r
iset
oasmallpopulat
iongr
owt hcomparabl
etostage2.

-Ashar pdeclineinbir
thrat
eisowedt oeffecti
veuseofcontracepti
ves,chi
ldrenare
takenasal iabi
lit
yetce.g.Austr
ali
a,l
egalizedabort
ion,useofpopul at
ionli
mi t
ing
polici
es( i
ncentivi
singsmallfamili
es)
,disappeari
ngcul t
uralforcesthatpromot e
l
ar ge famil
ies,desireformat er
ialpossession,emancipati
on ofwomen/ gender
equalit
yissueset c.

-
exampl
esincl
udemostSout
hAmer icanst
ates(
Brazi
l,
Mexi
co,
Panamaet
c),
Asi
an
Ti
ger
s(Tai
wan,Si
ngapor
e,Malaysi
aetc)

STAGE:4[
LowSt
ati
onar
ySt
age/
post
-i
ndust
ri
aler
a]

-charact
eri
sed by a ver
yl ow bi
rt
h and deat
hrat
es t
hus gi
ving r
ise t
oa
stati
onary/
stabl
ehi
ghpopulati
on

-
examplesofcount
iesf
alli
ngunderS4ar
etheGr
eatBr
it
ain(
Ir
eland,
Engl
and,
Wal
es
&Scot
land),
theUSA,Europe,
Russia.

-
mechanisati
onofoper ati
onsinindust
ryandagr i
cul
turehasresul
tedinlessneed
forl
abour,hi
ghlevelsofeducati
on(suggesttherol
eofeducationinreduci
ngboth
death&birthrat
e?),advancedmedicaltechnol
ogy havekeptbir
thrateanddeath
rat
elow.

CRI
TICI
SMSOFTHEDEMOGRAPHI
CTRANSI
TIONMODEL

i
. themodeli sEur
ocent
ri
canditi
snowappeari
ngasifsomecount
ri
ese.
gin
Afri
cawi l
lneverbeindust
ri
ali
zedt
her
efor
ewi l
lnevercompl
etethef
our
stagesofthemodel

i
i. bir
thr
atesi
nsomeMEDCse. gSwedenhavefal
lenbel
ow t
hedeat
hrat
e,
t
husgi
vingr
iset
othepossi
bil
it
yofaf
if
thst
age

i
ii
. theti
mescaleofthemodeli
nsomecountr
ieshasbeeneit
herr
educedor
i
ncreasedastheydevel
opatafast
err
ateorslowerrat
ethantheearl
ier
devel
opedcount
ri
es

i
v. themodelal
sofail
stotakeint
oconsi
der
ati
ont
hevar
iouscul
tur
es,
races,
and
hist
ori
esofdi
ff
erentcount
ri
es

v. MEDCsthroughNGOshaveal
soint
ervenedthr
oughai
dandfamil
ypl
anni
ng
methodsandthi
shasaf
fect
edthenat
uralfl
owofthemodeli
nLEDCs

vi
. themodelal
soi
gnor
estheroleofgover
nmente.
gChi
na’
sonechi
ldpol
icy
andt
herol
eofwomenindeci
sionmaki
ng

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page11
vi
i. howevert
hemodelcanbeusedtocomparether at
eofgr
owt
hbet
ween
count
ri
esandhowt
hepopul
ati
onofacount
rychanges

Appl
icabi
li
tyofDTM

-
mostMEDCshavepassedt hr
oughthesestagesandsomeareevenshowing
i
nverset
rends(
higherdeat
hthanbi
rt
hrate)t
herebyi
ndi
cat
ingapr
ogr
essi
vef
ormat
oft
heDTM.

-
Lackofpopul at
ionli
miti
ngpolici
esi
ndevelopi
ngcountr
iesseemstobethesole
reasonf orl
ackoftransi
ti
onfrom st
age2t o3.Thisisbecauseofthenegat
ive
balancebetweenresourcesandpopulat
ion(few r
esour
cest osuppor
ttheever
i
ncr easi
ngpopul
ati
on)

DETERMI
NANTSOFECONOMI
CDEVELOPMENT

-mineralr
esourcebase:preciousmi ner
alssuchasdi amond,pl ati
num,goldand
fossi
lssuchasoi lhavegotagr eat
erpotenti
aloft
ransforminganeconomyi nt
oa
developedone.Exampl esSout hAfri
cawi t
hvastmi neralresourcebase,Unit
ed
ArabEmi r
ates(Dubai)i
stransformi
ngataf astpaceowi ngtoitsvastoilr
eser
ves
whichhasat t
ract
edtremendousdevelopmenttothi
sdeser tenvi
ronment.

-
politi
calwill
:thewi l
lpowert oharnessallwhatanat i
onof f
ersfort
hesakeof
developmentisof tenacr i
ti
calingredi
entoft hem al
l.Wellruncountr
ieshave
proven to be progressi
ng economical
ly such as Angol
a( one ofthe f
ast
est
developi
ngstatei
nSADC)

-ski
ll
edmanpower /
workforce:hel
psi ntr
ansformi
ngresourcesi
ntoconsumables
withouthi
ri
ngexpensivel abour.(
Chinasurvi
vesbyexporti
ngski
ll
edwor kf
orceto
othercount
riesaswellasf ini
shedgoods;curr
entl
yUSAisamaj orneti
mpor t
erof
ChineseIndustr
ialgoods,Kar i
baSouthpowerpl antext
ensioni
sbeingdoneby
ChinesecompanySI NO-hydro)

-poli
cing & economi c planning:the nature of poli
cing towards economi c
developmentaffectsprosperi
tyofaneconomy.Of tenwell-
craf
tedpolici
est hat
attr
actForei
gnDi r
ectInvestment(FDI)orboosti
nginvestorconfi
dencearecr i
ti
cal
fordevelopment.Asanexampl e,51% localownershipindi
genizati
onpolicyof
Zimbabwer epel
ledalotofinvestmentsi
ncecomi ngi
nt of
orcein2013.

-peaceandstabil
it
y:DRCshoul
dbeamongthefast
estdevel
opingst
atesinAf
ri
ca
duet oabundanceofdiamond& oi
lfi
eldsbutpoli
ti
calunrestisl
eadingtoan
economiccri
sis.

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page12
EFFECTSOFPOPULATI
ONGROWTH

QN:Assesst
hei
mpactofpopngr
owt
hondevel
opment

Posi t
ive
-cheapl abourfort heindustr
y
-themor ethepopul ati
onthel argethemarketforthegoodshencepr
oduct
ionis
sustained
-from thepro-natalist
,morepeopl emeanmor eideasofwhi
chsomearei
nnovati
ons
-addot herpoints
Negat ive
-resourceconst rai
nsl eadi
ngt opoverty
-foodshor t
agest r
iggeri
ngcivilunrest
-outbreakofdi seasesi novercrowdedareas
-addot hers

C)POPULATI
ON-RESOURCERELATI
ONSHI
P

a)Over population
-si
tuati
onwher etherearet oomanypeopl etoresourcesavai
labl
e
Indicat
or s
 poorl ivingstandards
 hi ghunempl oymentr ate
 mor eout migrati
on
 lowGr ossDomest icPr oduct(GDP)
Associatedpr oblems
 di seaseout breakandr apidspr ead
 f oodshor t
ages
 unst ablecommodi typr ices/unstableeconomy
 evi denceofenvi ronment alstr
ess
 housi ngpr oblems/ shor t
ageofaccommodat i
onparti
cular
lyi
nurbanar
eas
*exampl esinclude,mostAf r
icanst ates,Hondurus,Bangl
adesh,Sri
Lanka

b)Underpopul at
ion
-
sit
uationwher etherearefewpeopl ei
nrel
ati
ontotheresour
cesavai
labl
e
*on a common not ei tist aken as a si
tuat
ion wherethere arefarmor
e
undeveloped/unt
appedr esourcescomparedtothetot
alpopul
ati
on.
Indi
cator s
 aver agepercapitaincome/GDP
 lowr ateofunempl oyment
 gr aduali
mpr ovementinlivi
ngcondi
ti
ons

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page13
  ur banization
Associ at
edpr oblems
 shor t
ageofspeci al
izedwor kforce
 si gnsofpover ty
 smal lmar ket
 r emot enessi nsomear eas
c)Opt i
mum popul ati
on
*thoughtt obeat heoreti
calcondi tionofr elat
ionbetweenpopn&r esourcessincei
t
i
sdi ffi
culttomai ntain
-i
trepresent sanequi li
bri
um st at
ei nwhi chpopn&r esour
cesstri
keabal anceor
reachanequall evel (
resources&popnbei ngequal)
Indicator
s
 hi ghGDP/hi ghpercapi t
aincome
 ver yhi ghempl oymentl evels
 smal lmigr ati
onexchange
 wel l
-developed facili
ties( social,health,educati
onal,amenit
ies)*even in
areaswi thhi ghpopul ationdensi t
iese.g.Chicago,LosAngel
es)

D]POPULATI
ONPOLI
CIES

QN:
-Expl
ainpr
o&ant
i-
nat
ali
stt
heor
ies

-
Out
li
nepopul
ati
onpol
ici
es

-Eval
uat
eimpactofpopnpol
ici
est
otheeconomi
esofcount
ri
es.

PROANDANTI
-NATALI
STTHEORI
ES

1)ThomasMal thust heory(anti-

nat ali
stic)
-holdsanant i-
natali
sti
c/pessimi sti
cst anceonl ifebyar guingt hatifcurr
ent
populati
ongr owthr at
esar emai ntainedcr i
si swilloccurl eadingt odeath.
*theorywaswr i
tt
enbef oreindust ri
alrevolut i
on
Assumpt i
ons
 Popngr owsgeomet ri
call
y( exponent iall
yi.
e.doubl esoveracer tainperi
od)
 Foodpr oductiongrowsar it
hmet ically(increasebysi ngleuni t
s)
 Agr i
coutputdecl i
neovertimei nresponset odecl iningsoi lf
erti
li
ty
 Landi saf i
niteresource( suggest ingconceptofcar r
yingcapaci tywhereby
l
andcanonl ysuppor tani dealpopul at i
on/ opti
mum popn,asi t
uat i
onknown
aspopncei l
ing)
 Af terpopncei li
nghasbeenat t
ained, anyf urthergr owthi npopni smanaged
bychecks( met hodsofl i
mitingpopngr owth.
Posit
ive checks ( human i nduced Negat ivechecks( naturalhazar ds)

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page14
measur
es)
Bi
rt
hcontr
ols,
mor
alr
est
rai
nt,
cel
i
bacy Droughti
nducedfoodcri
sis(whi
chmay
contr
ibut
e t o civi
l war s), f
loods,
eart
hquakes,
epi
demics

Appl
icabil
it
y
 Foodcr isisinAfricaamongot herdevel opingregions
 Unpr ecedent edpopngr owt h(particularl
yi nAf r
icaandAsi a)againstlower
foodpr oduction
 Evi denceofpopnpol i
ciesai medatcur tail
ingbirt
hr ate(China,Si
ngapore)
 Occur r
enceofhazar dsl eadi ngt olossofl i
ves
Weaknesses
 Di dn’tforeseether ol
eoft echnology&i nnovationsi nincr
easingagr i
coutput
(agri
cr evoluti
oni nChina, Brazil
)
 Nogeogr aphicallyconf inedar eas( foodi mpor t
scanbedonewhenf aced
withsuchneedf rom ar easwi thsur plus( 2016-2017Zi mr el
iedongr ain
impor t
sf rom Brazil
,Mexi co&Zambi a)
 Medi calinnovationshavel edtocont rolofdiseasesr educingthedeat ht
oll
 Ant i-
nat al
isti
c

2)Est
herBoser
upt
heor
y(pr
o-nat
ali
sti
c)

- Theoryi
sacompl eteopposit
etoMalt
hus,asshepr opoundedt hatr
apid
popul
ati
onincreaseleadstopeopl
ebecominginnovat
ive(necessit
yisthe
mother of alli nvent
ions)
. Al
so popn growth st i
mulat
e economi c
devel
opment.

*
Theor
ywaswr
it
tenaf
terbot
hindust
ri
alandagr
icr
evol
uti
ons

Ar
gument
s/Assumpt
ions

 Popngr
owt
hpr
oducel
abour

 Popngr
owt
hmeansawi
dermar
ketbasewhi
chsust
ainsi
ndust
ry

 Popngrowthprovi
deswit
hayounggener at
ionswhichisbelievedt
obe
i
nnovat
ive&fl
exi
blewhenconf
ront
edwi
thchal
lenges/
changes.

Appl
icabi
li
ty

 Popnboom exper
iencedinAsiancountr
ies(
Japan,China,Singaporeetc)
tr
igger
edr
api
dagrictransf
ormat
ions(
useofHYVs,i
rr
igat
ion,agrochemical
s)

 I
tisi
nthi
saget
hatmosti
ndust
ri
alt
ransf
ormat
ionsar
etaki
ngpl
acet
ocat
er

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page15
 f
ordemandsoft
heeveri
ncr
easi
ngwor
ldpopn(
ver
ti
calst
ruct
ures,
GMOs)

 Advancementi
nt hemedicalf
iel
dhasledt
ocombati
ngofdeadl
ypandemi
cs
andepidemi
cse.g.chol
era,HI
V/AIDS,
ebol
a,mal
ari
aetc

Chal
lenges

 I
ncompat
ibl
efordevel
opi
ngcount
ri
es,
popngr
owt
hisst
rai
ningr
esour
ces.

 Rel
ationshi
pbet
weenpopngr
owt
h&economi
cgr
owt
hispr
ovi
ngt
obean
i
nversetomostcount
ri
es

#*#Thomas i
s saying popn growt
histhe rootofmostpr
obl
ems affect
ing
humanit
y whil
st Esther is sayi
ng t
hat popn gr
owt
h st
imul
ate economic
devel
opmentt
hruinnovati
ons.

3)Cl
ubofRome

-
agr
oupofdemogr
apher
s&sci
ent
ist
swi
thsamevi
ewswi
thThomasMal
thus,

-
believed t
hat popn gr
owt
h has i
mpact on r
esour
ces & r
educe economi
c
development

-
however
,theydi
ff
erfrom Malt
husinthat
;bi
rt
hcont
rol
sar
etheonl
ymeasur
esf
or
managi
ngunsust
ainablepopngrowt
h.

-
thecl
ubar
guedt
hatr
api
dpopngr
owt
hhast
hef
oll
owi
ngef
fect
s:

 Bringsaddit
ionalsocialcost(
needformor
eheal
th,educat
ional
,housi
ng
facil
it
yatexpenseproducti
onsect
or)

 Unmat
chedpopnandempl
oymentr
atesl
eadi
ngt
opover
ty

 I
nequal
it
iesbetweenri
ch&t
hepoor,r
ichbecomesri
cherthroughexpl
oit
ing
l
abourwhichhappenst
obei
nabundance(whyisl
abourabundant?
)

POPULATI
ONPOLI
CIES

1)Chi
na:1chi
ldpol
icy

-
wasi
ntr
oducedi
n1979t
ocur
tai
lfur
therpopni
ncr
ease.

-
ithad2opt
ions:t
hecar
rotorst
ickopt
ion/
measur
e.

-
carr
otinthesensethatbyhavi
ng1chil
dmeansenj
oyi
ngstat
ebenefi
tssuchas
f
reeeducat
ion,
pensi
onbenefi
ts,
chi
ldi
sguar
ant
eedanempl
oymentopport
uni
ty

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page16
-
sti
cki
nthesenset
hatbyhavi
ngmor
ethan1chi
ldpenal
ti
essuchas:

 Reduci
ngsal
ary,

 j
obi
nsecur
it
y,

 r
educedpensi
onbenef
it
s,

 att
imesf
orcedst
eri
li
zat
ionet
c.

Successes

 Si
gni
fi
cantdecl
inei
nnumberofchi
ldr
enperf
ami
lyf
rom ahi
ghof7t
o2

 Bi
rt
hrat
edr
oppedt
oanal
l-
ti
mel
owof1.
2fr
om 4.
4

 Li
feexpect
ancyr
oset
o70year
s

 Todat
e,Chi
neseeconomyi
sthef
ast
estgr
owi
ngandsecondl
argest
.

Fai
lur
es

 Bi
rt
hrat
enowl
owert
hanpopul
ati
onr
epl
acementr
ate

 Chi
ldobesi
ty

 Genderimbal
anceduet
oinf
ant
ici
deoff
emal
ebabi
esasabi
dtomanage
fer
ti
li
tyr
ate

 Agei
ngpopul
ati
on

Eval
uat
ion

-thepoli
cyi
saMI LESTONEachi
evementf
ort
hecount
ryandanexampl
efor
devel
opi
ngst
ates

Ot
herPol
ici
es

-
inf
ant
ici
de,marri
agelaws(al
lowi
ngmarr
iageafter20yr
s),appl
icat
ionandappr
oval
f
ormarri
age,appl
icat
iont
ohaveachi
ld,
nof or
eignmar r
iageswithi
nthestat
e.

2)Zi
mbabwepopnpol
icy

*
*Pr
esent
ati
onsont
opi
c**

E]POPULATI
ONHEALTH&DI
SEASES

QN identi
fydiseasest
hataff
ectpopul
ati
on.
outl
inethecauses,t
ransmissi
on&effect
sofdi
seases

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page17
 expl
ainsci
ent
if
icwaysofcombat
ingdi
seases.(
prevent
ionst
rat
egi
esandcur
e)

POPULATI
ONANDMI
GRATI
ON-
NEMAKONDE:2018 Page18