XP-4Q23 Review
XP-4Q23 Review
Equity Strategy
Figure 1: Revenue (Actual vs. XPe) Figure 2: EBITDA (Actual vs. XPe) Figure 3: Net Income (Actual vs. XPe)
Total 19% 42% 39% Total 24% 47% 30% Total 33% 15% 53%
Agribusiness 25% 25% 50% Agribusiness 38% 25% 38% Agribusiness 50% 25% 25%
Banks 25% 38% 38% Banks 25% 63% 13% Banks 25% 25% 50%
Capital Goods 25% 63% 13% Capital Goods 25% 50% 25% Capital Goods 63% 13%25%
Education - 50% 50% Education 25% 25% 50% Education 25% - 75%
Financials Non- Financials Non- Financials Non-
- 50% 50% 50% - 50% - 50% 50%
Banks Banks Banks
Food & Beverages 29% - 71% Food & Beverages 29% 71% - Food & Beverages 43% - 57%
Health Care 18% 64% 18% Health Care 45% 27% 27% Health Care 45% - 55%
Homebuilders 17% 58% 25% Homebuilders 17% 42% 42% Homebuilders 17% 25% 58%
Income Properties 40% 40% 20% Income Properties 40% 40% 20% Income Properties -20% 80%
Metals & Mining 29% 29% 43% Metals & Mining - 43% 57% Metals & Mining 71% - 29%
Oil, Gas & Oil, Gas & Oil, Gas &
13% 38% 50% 50% 38% 13% 50% - 50%
Petrochemicals Petrochemicals Petrochemicals
Pulp & Paper 33% 33% 33% Pulp & Paper - 100% - Pulp & Paper 67% - 33%
Retail 25% 54% 21% Retail 21% 38% 42% Retail 29% 21% 50%
Transportation 9% 45% 45% Transportation 9% 73% 18% Transportation 27% 27% 45%
Utilities & Energy -20% 80% Utilities & Energy 30% 60% 10% Utilities & Energy 30% 10% 60%
Source: XP Research. 1
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
The 4Q23 earnings season earmarks the opportunity for companies to disclose noteworthy milestones and
progress achieved in the ESG-related agenda in the year that passed. In addition, since B3’s ESG-related
annual indexes publish their compositions at the year-end, 4Qs also offer an appropriate arena to disclose
the entrance in any of these portfolios.
Aiming to understand if and how companies featured ESG-related information in their quarterly results, we
analyzed Bloomberg data on the number of ‘ESG’ mentions across companies that compose the B3
Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE). Overall, ‘ESG’ mentions in the 4Q23 increased 33% QoQ and 12% YoY.
From a pillar perspective, (E)-backed initiatives represented the highest bulk of these mentions (50%),
followed by (G) and (S) pillar (26% and 24% of the total, respectively). Within (E) themes, it’s worth
highlighting 3 most disclosed topics: (i) greenhouse gas emissions; (ii) carbon neutral; and (iii) energy
management. Lastly, from a sector standpoint, financials, consumer discretionary and utilities posted the
most mentions.
From a company perspective, the final quarter of the year saw important advances in three key names, that
in addition to disclosing strong ESG updates, are also part of the 10 names that compose the XP ESG Brazil
Portfolio for April (link): (i) Auren (AURE3) disclosed that the company was selected to join ISE B3’s 19th
portfolio in 2024 (access here for our note on the portfolio’s composition), in addition to the Efficient Carbon
Index (ICO2) and Diversity Index (IDIVERSA); (ii) Fleury (FLRY3), that noted the company’s entrance in 2023
in the Dow Jones Sustainability Emerging Markets Index (DJSI), composed of 111 companies (of only eight
are Brazilian-based); and (iii) Suzano (SUZB3), that disclosed some of the company’s annual ESG ratings,
including “low risk” classification at Sustainalytics, “A-“ score for water and climate and “B” for forests in
Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP).
Sector Highlights
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Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Sector Highlights
Our review for each sector under our coverage
Agri, Food & Beverages by Leonardo Alencar, Pedro Fonseca
Agribusiness: For S&E players within our coverage, it was another quarter of recovery margins, but nothing
too exciting. Companies continued to deliver margin rebound due to better yields leading to higher cost
dilution, as well as due to higher sugar prices. Ethanol, however, continued to drag down consolidated
results. In grain producers, results came in weak, as expected, reflecting lower commodity prices and rising
costs that squeezed producers' margins.
Food & Beverages: 4Q23 was a solid quarter for F&B players across the board, marked both by the continuity
of the margin recovery process and by the recovery of volumes, since these were being impacted by a more
retracted retail stance, which were pushing for lower inventories. Overall, the 4Q23 results suggest a
continued recovery in the results of the F&B companies in our coverage going into 2024. Not only results, the
outlook for cash generation was also encouraging in the quarter.
We saw mixed results from Brazil Capital Goods companies in 4Q23. On the positive side, we note better-than-
expected results from (i) WEG, with enduring profitability level and a seasonally stronger quarter for top-line
driving an upbeat bottom-line, (ii) Marcopolo, with improvements in pricing, mix and external operations
sustaining the company’s strong operational momentum; and (iii) Kepler Weber, with solid top-line driven by
better seasonality (but concerns regarding demand for FY2024). As for (iv) Randoncorp and (v) Frasle, while
4Q results were blurred by one-off inflationary impacts from Argentina, we see positive indications from
Randon’s FY2024 disclosed guidance (and margin normalization signs for Frasle looking ahead).
Moreover, naturally weaker seasonality and lasting Euro VI effects worsened results for (vi) Tupy and
(vii) Iochpe-Maxion, with recovery indications ahead following domestic market’s volume improvement.
Finally, (viii) Aeris posted weaker-than-expected results, with low profitability figures (while blurred by
accounting changes).
For higher education companies, 4Qs typically reflect on 1Qs and 3Qs figures, in which intake cycles take
place. During 4Q23, we were able to see the continuation of the 9M23 positive momentum, with (i) healthy
tickets, (ii) controlled drop-out rate levels, and (iii) YoY improvements in top-line and margins for most
companies. All in, we see this earnings season as neutral to positive to the companies we cover. On the
flipside, we note that the high financial leverage borne by companies is still a point of attention.
Source: XP Research. 8
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Sector Highlights
Our review for each sector under our coverage
Financials by Bernardo Guttmann, Matheus Guimarães, Rafael Nobre
Banks: We view the 4Q23 earnings season as positive. Although NPLs remained high, their downward trend
has been confirmed in most banks. Additionally, companies within our coverage universe focused on
efficiency, which boosted their results. Incumbent banks largely met their 2023 guidance. For 2024, growth
estimates looked healthy, especially for BB. In the capital markets segment, there was a growth in expenses,
but the increase in top line ended up compensating to a greater or lesser extent. Finally, once again,
Neobanks & Fintechs delivered operating improvements sequentially, leading to better results, but high
expectations continue to put pressure on its shares. Overall, we maintain a positive view on the sector and
maintain ITUB4 (Top Pick), BRBI11, and INBR32 as our preferred names. We also maintain a positive view on
Banco do Brasil following its strong guidance for 2024. While Nu and BTG have sustained positive earnings
momentum, their high valuations still warrant some caution.
Capital Markets: Although still sluggish, the capital market has shown signs of improvement. Despite high-
interest rates and adverse credit events, which added pressure to capital market activity throughout the year,
companies were able to navigate these challenges and ended 2023 with strong pipelines. This leads us to
believe that 2024 will be a better year. Efficiency gains and new revenue sources, combined with a
resumption of more vigorous activity, suggest a more positive outlook. However, the main risk remains the
need for a more consistent recovery in trading volumes on the stock exchange.
Neobanks: 2023 seems to have marked a turning point for the neobanks. Neobanks delivered positive and
growing results throughout the year, leading ROEs to grow faster than anticipated. Proving the thesis of
operating leverage defended by them since the IPO. We believe that the positive earnings momentum should
continue into 2024, but appetite and accuracy in credit origination will be the key variables for the longevity of
the current virtuous cycle. Managing investors’ expectations will also be important, especially regarding
share price movements.
Healthcare Services: The healthcare value chain is still under pressure. During this quarter: (i) Hapvida and
SULA posted positive results, mainly brought by the continuation of the sector-wide strong price increases,
which resulted in net losses of health plans for both companies, yet pushing MLR downwards for another
quarter; (ii) Hospital providers remain pressured by payors, while, on the positive side, we highlight ticket
improvements especially coming from price increases and mix; (iii) Oncoclínicas delivered slightly negative
results. Despite the noticeable top-line expansion coupled with steady operating margins, working capital
impacted cash generation, and gave a negative financial leverage print by the end of the year; (iv) Fleury
delivered a mild top-line growth coupled with margin improvements, and, even considering the current
pressures the sector at large is currently passing through – also impacting Fleury’s days of receivables, for
instance –, the company was able to deliver healthy operating cash flow figures; and (v) Odontoprev posted
slightly positive results, with a mild increase of revenues driven by Corporate and SME net additions paired
with a stable average ticket, also delivering improvements in DLR.
Pharma & Distribution: We saw negative results for pharma companies, as: (i) Hypera, was hardly impacted
by lower credit availability to small and medium sized players and by the need for sell-in to even out with sell-
out; (ii) Blau had negative results, with volumes aiding top-line, thanks to Bergamo’s consolidation and
improvements in the specialties’ BU on a YoY basis, while presenting a back-to-back YoY deterioration of
margins; and (iii) Viveo reported growth within all BUs, but the strong working capital increase hardly
impacted operating cash flow, which was negative R$477M.
Source: XP Research. 9
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Sector Highlights
Our review for each sector under our coverage
Real Estate by Ygor Altero, Ruan Argenton
Homebuilders: Overall, both low and mid/high-income homebuilders released positive results in the quarter.
On the positive side, most homebuilding players posted robust top-line expansion, fueled by: (i) solid net pre-
sales growth stemming from strong launches performance; and (ii) solid production levels, which positively
impacted revenue recognition. On the negative side, we continue to see a mixed scenario for profitability.
Some companies stood out (such as CURY, DIRR and PLPL), given a continuation of gross margins at solid
levels. However, MRV, TEND, EVEN and TRIS were the lowlights, posting milder margins, despite notable
improvements in terms of recovering profitability. These improvements were mainly driven by enhancements
in project mix and the declining relevance of older harvest projects (2020-2021), which were affected by the
spike in inflation. Overall, the companies that were already operating profitably (such as CYRE, LAVV, MDNE)
recorded a solid bottom-line growth, supported by robust top-line expansion and solid gross margin levels,
while MRV, TEND, EVEN and TRIS posted net income still under pressure.
Income Properties: So far, malls had a robust operational performance, driven by (i) stronger than expected
tenant sales, which drove significant occupancy cost dilution; (ii) occupancy rate growth; and (iii) net
delinquency under control, reinforcing the strong tenants' demand scenario. On the top line, IGP-M/DI
adjusted effects close to zero put pressure on rental revenue growth, leading to milder net revenue
expansion. On the other hand, EBITDA margins were surprisingly positive, mostly given to property cost
dilution coming from (i) the higher occupancy rates; and (ii) net delinquency at negative levels. Iguatemi was
a highlight in that sense, with robust margin growth stemming from efficiency gains in the retail segment. All
in, we saw positive FFO expansion for malls in 4Q23, with margin gains offsetting milder top-line expansion,
which we expect to continue seeing in 2024 (see our take here). On logistical properties, we saw neutral
results. On the positive side, operational data was strong with healthy vacancy and solid gross absorption
reinforcing the heated demand scenario, while the robust volume of portfolio recycling supported significant
financial deleverage. On the other hand, we saw top-line and FFO compression, explained by a lower GLA.
We saw a better relative performance for iron ore miners compared to steelmakers in Brazil during Q4. For iron
ore miners, the better results were driving by higher iron ore prices in 4Q23 (IO 62% Fe +12% QoQ on average)
and a better seasonality, reflecting on improved EBITDA margins (+8.9 p.p QoQ for Vale and CMIN). For
Brazilian steelmakers, a challenging environment for price increases in the steel industry (HRC -6% QoQ and
Rebar -1% QoQ in BRL) and a higher penetration of imported steel in Brazil was again the lowlight upon 4Q23
results. However, Usiminas and CSN reported improving 4Q23 results, reflecting a solid performance of
mining division but a still weak performance of steel division (although showing improvements vs. 3Q23). On
the negative side, Gerdau reported weak results due to weak results in Brazil’s BD and seasonally lower
volumes in North America’s BD contributing to a profitability decline.
Source: XP Research. 10
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Sector Highlights
Our review for each sector under our coverage
Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals by Vladimir Pinto, Helena Kelm
The fuel distributors companies reported solid results, with emphasis on the unit EBITDA of the two
companies (R$ 163/m³ for Vibra and R$ 192/m³ for Ipiranga) but, overall, in line with expectations. The E&P
companies presented soft results for a few reasons, in addition to the drop in the average price of Brent
(which shaped the number for all companies in the sector). PRIO was affected by lower offtakes in the
quarter, while 3R and PetroReconcavo were impacted by stoppages at the NGPU and the refinery in Rio
Grande do Norte, causing restrictions. By its turn, Petrobras reported EBITDA practically in line when
excluding non-recurring items. However, the highlight of the quarter was the choice of Petrobras' Board of
Directors to maintain dividends according to the minimum formula (USD 2.9 billion, ~3% yield), proposing to
direct the remaining profit for the year (USD 8.9 billion) to be fully allocated to the newly created capital
remuneration reserve, triggering a strong negative reaction in the market in the following day.
We saw mixed results from Pulp & Paper companies in 4Q23. On the positive side, Suzano was the positive
highlight, with better prices and lower unit pulp cash costs reflecting on better results in pulp division, despite
2023FY YoY pulp volumes reduction reflecting the company’s decision to cut production for 2H23. Klabin is
also on the positive side, with pulp sales volumes increasing 10% YoY and better top-line performance for
Paper & Packaging, despite lower containerboard sales. Finally, Irani reported softer but in-line results, given:
(i) lower-than- expected corrugated carboard volumes (-10% vs. XPe), despite improving vs. 3Q23 (+2% QoQ);
and (ii) higher-than-expected volumes of flexible paper (+22% XPe).
Regarding retailers’ Q4 results, we noted (i) challenging macro remains a headwind for demand; (ii) expense
optimization and cost cutting plans were a constant across all segments, as companies focus on defending
margins; (iii) DIFAL-related provisions were reported by several companies, though with no material cash
impact; (iv) positive indications were given towards Q1’s performance.
Segment-wise, Grupo Soma stood out among high-income retailers, with in-line top line growth and
improving profitability, while C&A was the highlight within the mid-income apparel space, as the company
continued to benefit from internal initiatives such as Push&Pull, dynamic pricing and C&A Pay’s expansion.
Among defensive segments, food retailers’ overall performance continued to be impacted by deflationary
trends, with Assai being an exception, as the company’s conversions’ maturations and organic expansion
drove SSS and EBITDA beat. Meanwhile, tough comps pressured pharmacies’ margins in the quarter, with
the exception of Panvel. Finally, e-commerce’s top line performance remained pressured on tough comps
and weak macro, with MGLU posting strong mg. improvement and solid FCF, while BHIA continued to face
restructuring costs.
Source: XP Research. 11
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Sector Highlights
Our review for each sector under our coverage
Sanitation and Utilities by Vladimir Pinto, Maíra Maldonado
In Utilities the main highlights were Eletrobras (ELET3) and Sabesp (SBSP3), reporting strong results. On the
other hand, Serena and Engie results disappointed our expectations, mainly impacted by worse-than-
expected operational conditions in the quarter.
Source: XP Research. 12
Equity Research - Strategy
Company Highlights
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Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Agribusiness
AGRO3
AGRO3 reported weak results reflecting poor 2022/23 grain margins due to the combination of lower prices coupled with higher freight
costs. Soybean gross mg. was 0%, while corn and cotton gross mg. reached negative territory. On the positive side, sugarcane results
were strong (gross margin of 34%) despite lower prices. We still see downside risks looking forward on the Company’s hedging position
(58% and 26% for 23/24 soybeans and corn, respectively) while we strengthen our bearish view on grain prices. Management reinforced
that we should not disregard farm sales in the short-term, but we prefer to take the conservative approach in this issue. We expect a
Neutral-to-negative price action in tomorrow trading’s session.
JALL3
Jalles posted solid and encouraging 3Q24 results amid the turmoil in the Ethanol market, with Sugar more than offsetting the biofuel
soft margins. All-in, net revenue was slightly below YoY at R$ 496 mn (-2% vs. XPe), and adj. EBITDA was R$ 333mn (+6% YoY and -2%
vs. XPe), with margins improving YoY and QoQ. Though higher sequentially on a strategy of mitigating risks, JALL focused on building
up Ethanol inventories during the year, an assertive strategy in our view as Ethanol prices are up in the mid-teens in 2024. Therefore, we
see an encouraging outlook looking forward, while higher Sugar prices and better margins due to lower unitary cash costs should be
tailwinds for earnings. We reiterate our BUY call.
RAIZ4
Raízen delivered a solid quarter with encouraging results on its Sugar BU (higher prices more than offsetting higher costs primarily due
to a longer season, a trend we expect to continue) and a surprising R$ 194/m³ margin in its BZ. Mobility operation, erasing doubts of
whether Raízen’s fuel importing strategy was correct. Intl. Mobility was also a beat, representing a relevant upside risk to our estimates
if it remains at this level. Aside from P&L, the Company was able to monetize R$ 1.2bn in tax credits, delivering leverage in line with XPe
at 1.9x ND/EBITDA. The lowlight remains within Renewables, though the recent uptrend in ethanol prices might prove Raízen’s strategy
of postponing sales was correct, a welcome change of scenario. With an EBITDA of R$ 3,929mn (+36% YoY, +8% vs XPe and +16% vs
Consensus), along with higher inventories of ethanol and higher hedged sugar prices yet to be captured in the next quarter, we expect
the Company to surpass the lower range of the guidance easily. We expect a positive price action in tomorrow’s trading session.
SLCE3
Margins were sequentially better reflecting higher 2022/23 Cotton crop, which was harvested with strong margins, leading adj. EBITDA
to come in at R$ 678mn (+8% vs. XPe and +4% YoY). SLC reported a net loss with the bottom line affected by a non-cash MtM of the
fair value of biological assets. Despite better margins, the guidance update took the spotlight. The Company announced a decrease of
5% in soybean planted area, with a subsequential increase of 18.5% in cotton 1st crop and a decrease of 15.8% in cotton 2nd crop
planted areas, while also slashing soybean yield estimates by 12.1% (13.2% below XPe). The hedging position advanced, for which we
see upside and downside risks. All-in-all, we expect a neutral to negative price action in tomorrow’s trading session.
Source: XP Research. 15
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Agribusiness
SMTO3
São Martinho reported a mixed yet better-than-expected quarter, with adj. EBITDA of R$ 704mn (-9% YoY but +8% vs XPe). The sharp
increase in sugarcane crush to 23mn tons in the 23/24 season was the highlight, leading to diluted costs and bigger sugar and ethanol
production, with the former in the spotlight and yet to capture higher hedged prices. Ethanol sales were postponed to the 4Q24, and
considering the recent uptrend in prices, this was an assertive strategy. The corn ethanol production reached total capacity, though
margins lag behind the sector’s benchmark due to costly inventories. All in all, we remain optimistic about SMTO’s outlook and valuation
opportunity.
SOJA3
The 2023/24 season was much more than a “Good Crop¹” for Boa Safra. Amid the turmoil experienced by agri-players across the board
in 2023, Boa Safra was the positive exception. The company delivered strong results though below our estimates, managing to deliver
higher volumes (+20% YoY and +2.5% vs. XPe) coupled with higher prices (slightly below XPe), along with an increase of the IST share
(31.7% vs. XPe of 30%) leading to higher market share (+110bps YoY) and margins, notable figures as our channel checks indicate
market prices decreased on avg. last year. All-in, yearly adj. EBITDA increased by 32% YoY and Adj. EPS increased by 45% YoY, also
enhancing operating cash flow. We think SOJA’s competitive advantages and brand recognition should keep strengthening the
Company’s leading position in the soybean seed business. We expect a positive reaction in tomorrow’s trading session and reiterate our
Buy rating on growth prospects and cheap valuation as we estimate the Company is trading at 7.3x P/E for 2024.
TTEN3
TTEN reported mixed results, with record topline despite the strong price drop across all of its business units, but not enough to offset
lower gross margin and especially higher freight expenses. As a result, the topline increased 40% YoY, but adj. EBITDA plunged 27% YoY
since the cost of entering a new market was higher than we and the company had expected. On a positive note, we estimate the
Company gained market share, which combined with its healthy balance sheet position should provide TTEN with a unique positioning
to navigate a tough 2024 year. Also, the Industry division reported a strong margin not seen since 2021. With shares down more than
20% in the LTM, we are from the view the slowdown in the growth pace was already priced in, but we do not disregard a negative price-
action in tomorrow’s trading session as the outlook remains uncertain and the Street is still adjusting its estimates to the new reality.
VITT3
Results were weak, as expected. 2023 topline decreased 11.2% YoY, with yearly adj. EBITDA and net income decreased in the thirties
reflecting the tough year for ag-input players, something we have been vocal about for a while. The Company reported diverse trends
across biologicals business lines with topline increasing ~9% YoY in 2023 in spite of a decrease of 590bps YoY in gross margin, a
performance we do not necessarily see as negative given that defending market share in a challenging environment such as 2023 is
essential for the business to continue gaining scale, in our view. Another key issue we think deserves better understanding is the 21.4%
YoY increase in SG&A expenses despite lower topline, which was not fully related to R&D expenses. We are from the view the lower
growth pace was already priced-in, though we expect tomorrow’s earnings conference takeaways will be key for shares performance.
Source: XP Research. 16
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Banks
BBAS3
With a recurring net income of R$9.4 billion in 4Q, Banco do Brasil delivered impressive results, achieving a high ROE of 22.5%, the
highest among the incumbents. The bank’s strong commercial performance and growth in its credit loan portfolio (+10.5% YoY)
contributed to a positive impact on the NII (+20% YoY). BBAS reported consistent results, meeting most of its guidance for FY23. In
terms of credit quality, NPL over 90 stood at 2.92% (+11bps but still below the financial system as a whole:3,3%). On a negative note, it is
worth highlighting the reduction in the BIS ratio. The bank also presented its guidance for FY24, pointing out encouraging numbers that
include portfolio growth between 8% and 12%, the highest guidance among incumbents. The most surprising is the guidance for the
bottom line, pointing to a growth range of 9.5% to 18%! These projections could lead to a substantial upside in our numbers and
consensus. Despite the strong performance of the stock last year, we still see the bank as highly discounted with an attractive valuation
of 5.1x P/E for 2024. Therefore, we reiterate our buy recommendation and YE24 TP of R$ 61/share.
BBDC4
Bradesco presented weak numbers for the last quarter of 2023. Our view stems from softer NII, slightly lower Fees, higher loan loss
provisions, positive effective income tax, and a miss across the board on 2023 guidance. On the flipside, we can highlight (once again)
the Insurance segment, the 50bps improvement in NPL, and coverage ratio rebounding to 165% (+10pp QoQ). As a result, Bradesco
presented a net income of R$ 2.8bln, 41% below our estimate, and implying an ROAE of 10%. The bank also provided the 2024 guidance,
which we see as fair. Yet, we do not see the Q4 figures as key to investors. In our view, the price action for BBDC4 shares will be driven
mostly by the messages presented during the webcast later today (07), when the new CEO, Marcelo Noronha, is expected to
present more information about the changes he intends to promote during his tenure.
BPAC11
BTG reported strong 4Q23 results, in line with our numbers. This performance was largely due to higher revenues on Corporate & SME
Lending growing +1.187% YoY, +26% in Wealth Management, +24% in S&T and +18% YoY in Asset Management. It is worth noting that
the corporate lending line in 4Q22 was impacted by the Americanas credit event. Except for Investment Banking (IB), which was
impacted by the more restrictive capital market environment, the bank reported record revenues across all lines of business. It is worth
noting that the IB segment had an important evolution in the number of transactions this quarter, possibly signaling a better 2024. Net
New Money reached R$ 41bln, leading AuM to R$ 1.6tn (+25% YoY). On the expenses side, the bank reported a decrease in the cost-to-
income ratio at 36.0%, below historical levels. As a result, net income totaled R$ 2.8 bln (+61% YoY and +5% vs. XPe) with an ROAE of
23.4%. Overall, this was another quarter of good numbers, however, considering the recent rally, the current high multiples pose a
challenge for the results to be seen as a trigger for the stock. (Neutral, TP R$40,0).
Source: XP Research. 17
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Banks
BRBI11
BR Partners reported another positive quarter, with strong revenue growth (+27% YoY and +16.2% vs XPe). Net profit reached R$ 43
million, with a ROAE of 22% in 4Q23. The strong results reflect a recovery across all business lines, particularly in investment banking
and capital markets revenue. Despite the extremely challenging year for capital market activities, the company has emerged in the past
two quarters, delivering a strong recovery and accelerating its M&A and restructuring segments. The company also shared encouraging
initial numbers from its wealth operation, which was launched in September, achieving R$ 2.3 billion in assets and R$ 2 million in
revenue. To achieve these results, the company had to increase its headcount, expanding coverage and seniority within its team,
resulting in a 60% YoY increase and impacting the efficiency ratio.
INBR32
Inter & Co (INBR32) reported good results in line with the expectations that already considered the operational indicators released
during the follow-on. For another quarter, the pace of improvement in operating cost metrics surpassed revenue indicators, especially
gross ARPAC which saw a 3.6% QoQ drop. As a result, the bank reported a net profit of R$160 million (5% above us), showing significant
growth of 54% QoQ. ROE continues its consistent upward trajectory, at 8.5%. It is also worth highlighting: i) growth in the active
customer base; ii) significant expansion of the credit portfolio, with an increase of 10% QoQ, driven mainly by Real Estate, SMB, and
Cards. According to the company, improving the quality of risk management gives them the confidence to accelerate credit card
subscription; iii) NPL over 90 improved 10bps, reaching 4.6%, with an even greater improvement in NPL 15-90 (-30bps). In short, we
reiterate our positive view of the case (Buy and TP rating of R$ 34.0/share).
ITUB4
Itaú reported solid results, with a recurring net income of R$9.4 bln (in line with us; ROE 21.2%), up 4% QoQ and 23% YoY. The overall
numbers followed a positive trend, and the guidance was partially delivered, except for loan portfolio growth which was a timid 3.1%
YoY, therefore below the lower range of guidance (5.7%-8.7%). Asset quality remained strong, with NPL over 90 decreasing to 2.8% (-20
bps QoQ), reaching the lowest level for the last five quarters. NII accelerated compared to the previous quarter, reaching R$27.1 bln in
4Q23 (up 9% YoY, but 1% below XPe). The bank unveiled its annual guidance, which held no significant surprises but appeared
somewhat cautious about portfolio growth in the upcoming cycle. The much-anticipated extraordinary dividend was disclosed at R$11
billion, bringing the year's payout to approximately 60%. Furthermore, the bank introduced a buyback program of ~R$2,5bn. We reiterate
ITUB4 as a top pick, our buy rating, and our target price of R$35.0/share
Source: XP Research. 18
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Banks
ROXO34
The Nu thesis, or Nu formula, continues to perform well. Revenues continued to increase while the cost to serve per customer remains
under control, further improving the company’s operational leverage. The slight increase in the efficiency ratio due to branding costs in
Brazil and Mexico should not raise major concerns. In terms of revenue improvement, it is worth highlighting the increase in: i) customer
base; ii) activity rate; iii) percentage of remunerated installment balances (among credit card portfolios); and iv) Net Interest Margin
(NIM). Regarding credit quality, we are pleased to see the NPL over 90 finally stabilize QoQ at 6.1%. As a result, net profit reached $361
million (-3% vs XPe and -2% consensus), leading to an ROE of 23%. We expect a slightly negative market reaction due to high market
expectations. We see Nu currently trading at 5.5x P/BV and 22.5x P/E 24E, anticipating a significant portion of future growth.
SANB11
Santander reported negative and below-expected results compared to our figures and consensus. Despite the NII being unsurprisingly in
line, the bank’s profitability was pressured by higher provisions and general expenses. The bank highlighted that the results were
impacted by a specific case in the wholesale segment and the need for additional provisions to strengthen coverage for other wholesale
companies. As a result, the bank reported a net profit of R$ 2.2 billion, 26% below our figures, resulting in a managerial ROAE of 12.3%.
The NPL over 90 reached 3.1% and does not appear to be a point of concern, despite the 10bps QoQ increase. It is worth noting that the
leading indicator (15-90) confirms the good performance of newer loan portfolios, especially in the Individuals segment (-40bps). We
anticipate a negative market reaction, reflecting new concerns regarding the ongoing profitability pressure after a third quarter that
indicated a potential recovery ahead.
Source: XP Research. 19
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Capital Goods
AERI3
Aeris reported worse-than-expected results, with low profitability figures driving weak results in 4Q23 (EBITDA margin of 4.8%). We note:
(i) soft production levels of 802 MW (+2% QoQ and -36% YoY considering restated figures); (ii) backlog improvements, backed by already
announced contract renegotiations, with potential net revenues from long-term contracts improving to R$11.1 billion (vs. R$4.1 billion in
3Q23); and (iii) optimized capital structure after capital injection (net debt/LTM EBITDA of 1.9x vs. 3.0x in 3Q23). Moreover, the company
has reevaluated its accounting standards, changing revenue recognition for billed blades, restating historical figures from 4Q22 onwards,
therefore making the reported results incomparable to our estimated figures. We reiterate our cautious view and Neutral rating.
FRAS3
Frasle Mobility posted blurred 4Q results, with adj. EBITDA (excluding hyperinflation-related impacts in Argentina) of R$160 million slightly
below our expectations (-5% vs. XPe and -16% QoQ). Frasle’s top-line was heavily impacted by accounting effects regarding the
devaluation of the Argentine peso – excluding this impact, sales would have improved +15% YoY (or +9% organically), with a continued
strong performance from the domestic market. As for profitability, excluding all one-off effects, we note an EBITDA margin of 18.6%
(contracting vs. 3Q23’s strong levels of 21.4%, although expected). All in all, we maintain our Neutral view for FRAS3, with our thesis of
potential market headwinds and margin normalization ahead corroborated after today’s guidance announcement (with numbers virtually
in-line with XPe).
KEPL3
Kepler Weber posted solid 4Q23 results, with adj. EBTIDA of R$118 million +8% vs. XPe (-22% YoY and +52% QoQ). In a seasonally
stronger quarter, we note overall stable revenues from Farms and Agroindustries and improving performance from R&S (+7% YoY
organically) driving net revenues +2% above our estimates. As for profitability, although we see gross margin normalizing (-7p.p. YoY)
mainly reflecting a weaker demand environment vs. an atypically stronger year in 2022, we continue to see Kepler’s EBITDA margin of
~23% at a healthy level. All in all, we see 4Q results closing the year in a positive tone. Looking ahead, however, we see valid concerns
regarding the 2024/25 crop, producers’ profitability and upcoming demand for post-harvest solutions.
MYPK3
Iochpe-Maxion reported weak but expected results, with EBITDA of R$289 million (+10% YoY and -5% vs. XPe). We saw a challenging
operational environment for Iochpe in 4Q23, with (i) lower unit revenues (impacted by lower raw material prices) added to (ii) pressured
volumes (with lasting effects from the Euro VI transition and a natural weaker seasonality in 4Q) leading to net revenues -16% YoY (and -
3% vs. XPe). On the other hand, we welcome Iochpe’s indications of stabilizing raw material costs, with a better match with unit revenues
allowing a stable EBITDA margin QoQ at ~8.3%. All in all, we see no negative surprises in Iochpe’s 4Q23 results, and see a potentially
better scenario being drawn for 1H24 with better seasonally, slowly recovering volumes and a more appropriate match between unit
costs and unit revenues
Source: XP Research. 20
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Capital Goods
POMO4
Marcopolo released better-than-expected 4Q23 results, with recurring (excl. equity income) EBITDA of R$336 million +9% vs. XPe (+37%
QoQ and +57% YoY). We welcome Marcopolo’s solid top-line and healthy profitability, reflecting a combination of: (i) continued pricing
improvement (especially in road buses); (ii) better mix; and (iii) recovering production from external operations. All in all, we believe
today’s results illustrate Marcopolo’s strong momentum ahead of 2024, with barely any volumes destined to the Caminho da Escola
program this quarter, implying solid expectations throughout 2024E as volumes improve and prices remain at high levels. We reiterate
our constructive view and Buy rating for POMO4.
RAPT4
Randoncorp posted neutral 4Q23 results, with adj. EBTIDA of R$330 million slightly below our estimates (-5% vs. XPe and +1% YoY,
excluding hyperinflationary impacts from Argentina). Adjusted top-line of R$2.7 billion was in-line with our estimates (-5% YoY), reflecting
a combination of (-) still impaired Auto Parts sales, but (+) increasing aftermarket revenues in all industrial divisions. Looking at
profitability, we see adj. margin contracting QoQ, with improvement from Trailers’ not enough to offset lower levels from Auto Parts and
Frasle. Finally, we see Randon’s 2024 guidance announcement as today’s positive highlight, with figures beating consensus estimates,
while in-line with our optimistic numbers, reinforcing our constructive view for 2024 (mainly backed by truck market recovery
expectations in Brazil).
TUPY3
Tupy posted soft 4Q23 results, with adj. EBITDA of R$250 million in-line with our estimates (flat YoY and - 32% QoQ on a naturally weaker
seasonality). We see Tupy facing a combination of unfavorable events in 4Q, including enduring impacts from the Euro VI transition and
FX effects from the BRL and MXN appreciation driving revenues -13% YoY if excluded MWM. As for profitability, we see the
abovementioned effects and the higher mix of MWM (which is still ramping-up profitability) offsetting potential synergies gained from
recent acquisitions and leading to an EBTIDA margin of 9.5% (-3p.p. QoQ and flat YoY). Although the macro environment remains as a
headwind for the shares in the short-term, we maintain our optimistic view for heavy vehicles’ recovery in Brazil and positive expectations
for the U.S. market and reiterate our Buy rating.
WEGE3
WEG posted better-than-expected 4Q23 results, with enduring profitability levels and a seasonally stronger quarter for top-line driving
recurring bottom-line +7% QoQ and +18% YoY (+3-4% vs. consensus and XPe, respectively). After a disappointment on top-line
performance after the release of 3Q23 results in Oct’23 (WEGE3 -10% that day), we believe that today’s earnings beat should provide
some relief for the pessimistic environment regarding WEG’s earnings momentum. However, with revenues performance of +7% YoY
corroborating our view of decelerating top-line growth for 2024E, we reiterate our Neutral rating on limited room for valuation to re-rate
(2024E P/E of ~28x at high levels, in our view).
Source: XP Research. 21
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Education
COGN3
Cogna reported positive 4Q23 results, with an adjusted net income of R$60M. All three BUs continued the positive trend we have been
noticing in previous quarters, yielding an 11.6% YoY revenue growth and a 1.3 p.p. YoY Adj. EBITDA margin expansion. Although still
bearing high leverage, at 3.7x Adj. EBITDA, we (i) see a clear downward trend and (ii) believe that the figure may be overstated. Cash flow
pre-Capex doubled YoY, following a strong improvement in receivables. We highlight that Vasta’s 2024 ACV embeds a growth of 16% YoY
for subscription revenues, what we consider strong. The results corroborate with our view that the company is on a virtuous trend, and
thus we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock.
CSED3
Cruzeiro do Sul reported positive 4Q23 results, with an adjusted net income of R$11M. Revenues increased 14.8% YoY, pushed by the
momentum brought by strong intake cycles and retention rates over the year paired with stable average tickets. Adjusted EBITDA margin
increased 1.9 p.p. YoY majorly due to easy comps from wage agreements, personnel efficiencies, and PDA improvements being partially
offset by hub payments and marketing expenses. Bottom-line continues to be pressured by financial expenses, as the company closed
the year with an adjusted leverage of 3.0x. The result reinforces our positive view towards the sector and the company, and therefore we
reiterate our Buy rating on the stock.
SEER3
Ser Educacional reported slightly positive 4Q23 results, with an adjusted net income of R$18M. Revenues increased 9% YoY, following the
positive intake seasons of the year and a mild reduction in dropout rates in both Hybrid and Digital segments. Adj. EBITDA margin
expanded 5.4 p.p. YoY majorly due to the company’s efficiency initiatives that prevented costs and expenses to increase in tandem with
top-line. Financial expenses continue to consume a large part of EBITDA, eroding bottom-line. We maintain a positive view towards the
entire sector and expect SEER to continue delivering margin improvements with some top-line growth going forward, yet we see leverage
as a point of attention.
YDUQ3
Yduqs reported neutral 4Q23 results – with adjusted net income of R$12M – and released its guidance for 1Q24 adjusted net income
and 1H24 intakes. Regarding the results, on the positive side we note that the company was able to maintain the ticket trend it has been
showing lately, with healthy increases across all three BUs. We note the margin pressure brought by recent intakes and by DIS intakes, yet
we highlight that we see margin increase potential going forward as these effects are diluted. The intake estimates are slightly better
than our already optimistic estimates, and the guidance is also above our forecast. Although seeing the results as neutral, we see the
intake indication for the coming quarters – and for FY2024 – as positive. Hence, we reiterate our positive view for the sector and our Buy
rating on the stock.
Source: XP Research. 22
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Financials Non-
Banks
B3SA3
B3 reported uninspiring 4Q23 results, with a combination of depressed volumes, pressure on the top line, and higher-than-expected
expenses. It’s worth noting that despite higher expenses in the quarter, B3 was able to meet its 2023 expense guidance. However, the
top-line figures came in slightly below our estimates. The company also faced anticipated contributions related to self-regulation, which
negatively impacted its EBITDA. The lower EBITDA, partially offset by a lower effective tax rate, resulted in a bottom line of R$1.1 billion
for the quarter. We maintain our cautious view on the stock due to weak trading volumes. We believe that the performance of B3SA3
shares will be influenced more by news related to potential competition and capital market activities rather than financial results. While
B3 remains a solid dividend play, we maintain our conservative stance and do not expect this to drive positive price action.
CASH3
Méliuz released another weak result, driven by a deteriorated GMV, reflecting a challenging scenario for e-commerce in Brazil.
Furthermore, it was another cluttered result. Over the past year, Méliuz’s financial results have become increasingly complex to
comprehend and analyze. We acknowledge that the company has undergone significant transformations, particularly with the sale of
Bankly. Each quarter, we strive to determine the most accurate financial information for analysis. Recently, we have focused on
examining the unadjusted consolidated figures. This approach aligns with our valuation methodology, the Dividend Discount Method
(DDM), where discussions of cash and non-cash effects have become less pertinent. While this approach may evolve in the future, our
current perspective is that the company’s ability to distribute earnings is primarily tied to its accounting net profit rather than its cash
position.
Source: XP Research. 23
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
ABEV3
AmBev’s YE results were mainly mixed, with ongoing tax discussions weighing on its outlook on top of the adverse effects of
Argentina’s hyperinflation. At the same time, the operational recovery was solid, and the company sustained its bottom-line recovery
with margin expansion across the board. However, adjusting for ARG’s inflation would deliver a miss in the consolidated revenue,
trickling down to a miss on most lines. BZ Beer volume was also a miss at 26.3mn hl (-1.1% YoY and -2% vs XPe), though shadowed by
a price (NR/hl) increase of 7.2% that deserves a cheer. AmBev also disclosed guidance of a Cash COGS decrease of 0.5-3.0% for BZ
Beer in 2024, better than our forecast yet in line with recent commodities trends. With higher taxes, Argentina as headwinds, and a not
surprising guidance, operational performance should remain on the backstage, and therefore we expect shares to give back part of
yesterday’s performance.
BEEF3
Minerva reported a hard-to-read quarter, with operational performance as the highlight, though clouded by (i) Argentina’s hyperinflation
adjustment (non-cash); (ii) no update from CADE leading to 3.2x net debt/EBITDA (XPe) leverage on possibly the best (or close to)
moment in cattle cycle; and (iii) weaker than expected FCF. Considering an 8.5% margin for Argentina, we estimate Minerva’s adj.
EBITDA for 4Q23 at R$ 733mn (+21% YoY but -7% vs XPe), with a consolidated margin of 9.6%, also lower than expected, which should
disappoint investors, especially considering its estimate nature, leaving room for dissimilar perceptions. This is a bittersweet ending
after a tumultuous year, a feeling that should linger until the deal goes through. We expect a negative performance for BEEF3 in
tomorrow’s trading session.
BRFS3
BRF reported a solid 4Q23 with positive signs across the board. We expected demand on the domestic market to sustain margin
recovery, which was delivered along with better cash flow prospects on lower inventories and sequentially better cash financial results
(nearly R$ 200mn QoQ). However, the International op. took the spotlight with price recovery across the board – opposite trend vs
Secex (as we stated here) –, boosting adj. EBITDA Mg. from 2.6% in 4Q22 to 11.1% in 4Q23, a faster-than-expected recovery that could
trigger earnings revisions from the Street, while Brazil reported a solid adj. EBITDA Mg. (+678bps YoY and +98bps vs XPe). BRF+
delivered R$ 2.2bn in 2023 (R$ 166mn yet to reflect in P&L), and since efficiency is an ever-going process, we are waiting for BRF+ 2.0.
Following lower leverage and a new track record, we remain high-conviction with BRF’s turnaround story and reinforce it as our Top
Pick.
CAML3
Higher Rice prices set the tone, and Camil reported a record topline of R$ 3.0bn (+15% YoY and +7.0% vs. XPe on higher prices), also
benefitted by higher high-turnover volumes in Brazil (+3.0% YoY, in line with XPe). We welcome the increase in volumes especially
considering the hike in prices along with a tough competitive environment in Sugar, while the retail remains pushing for lower
inventories. The increase in topline allowed higher cost dilution and adj. EBITDA¹ came in at R$ 222mn (+32% YoY and -2% vs. XPe).
Despite solid EBITDA rebound, leverage remained high with ND/EBITDA reaching 4.3x (above its year-end covenant of 3.5x), pressuring
cash flow. Thus, we expect a Neutral reaction in tomorrow’s trading session.
Source: XP Research. 24
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
JBSS3
JBS delivered results largely in line with expectations, but we note significant weaknesses in US Beef and Seara margins. US Beef adj.
EBITDA mg. of -2.3% fell short of our forecast of -0.5%, indicating a more challenging cycle environment than anticipated. Additionally,
Seara's performance lagged behind its closest peer, with an adj. EBITDA mg. of 6.4%. We intend to address this underperformance in
tomorrow's earnings call. These factors are likely to lead to a downward pressure on the stock price tomorrow, as they leave room for
negative earnings revisions looking forward. On a positive note, JBS Brazil and Australia outperformed, driven by favorable cattle cycle
dynamics, and FCFE exceeded expectations. However, these positives are overshadowed by the weak performance of US Beef and
Seara, in our vew.
MDIA3
Results were strong across the board. EPS came in at R$ 1.06, 54% above XPe and 37% above BBG Consensus on better-than-expected
financial results mainly following MDIA’s deleveraging (net cash at 2023YE), but also due to a benefit of R$ 31.7mn on non-cash interest
on tax credits. Volumes were strong, up 6% QoQ despite negative seasonality, led by (i) MDIA’s revenue management strategy (prices
down 4.8% QoQ); (ii) better operational figures (see details below); and (iii) the rebound in retail demand (retail inventories back to 4Q22
levels). Strong volume performance led to WK release and boosted FCF to R$ 584mn (XPe of R$ 310mn). If sustained, volume
performance is an important upside risk for 2024. All-in-all, 4Q23 results should bring back shares' momentum, in our view. We reiterate
BUY rating on attractive valuation and encouraging operational/earnings performance.
MRFG3
Marfrig's results were in line with expectations, but there are positive indications as it continues to outperform its closest peers, both in
North America (adj. EBITDA mg. of 2.6%) and South America divisions (adj. EBITDA mg. 10.4%). While we maintain caution regarding
beef margins in the US due to a challenging cattle outlook, 4Q23 results suggest room for increased optimism, particularly as National
Beef demonstrates higher resilience when compared to its peers. Today's share price decline reflects the market's anticipation of
weaker US margins, in our view. Therefore, we anticipate a positive price movement in tomorrow's trading session. Overall, we maintain
a Neutral stance, considering the still high pressure on leverage and uncertainties surrounding asset sales to Minerva.
Source: XP Research. 25
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Healthcare
BLAU3
Blau reported negative 4Q23 results, with adjusted net income¹ of R$29M. Revenues increased 6.7% QoQ (+5.5% YoY) due to stable
prices, Bergamo’s acquisition contribution, and specialties’ sales increase. Adjusted EBITDA margin² increased 2.2 p.p. QoQ with an
upside from G&A dilutions being partially offset by an increase of sales and R&D expenses relative to revenues, yet we emphasize the
3Q23 easy comp as it has dropped 19 p.p. on a YoY basis. Despite the slight sequential improvement, we remain skeptical on the name
due to the strong earnings deterioration over 2H23.
DASA3
DASA reported negative 4Q23 results, with an adjusted net loss of R$517M. The company disclosed a series of adjustments in order to
provide clarity regarding the operation’s current state. Revenues increased 1.2% YoY, driven by BU1 mild top-line improvement coupled
with BU2’s flattish top-line. Adj. EBITDA was down by 1.2 p.p. YoY as a plunge in adj. gross margin from BU1 was partially offset by an
improvement in adj. cash expenses. Leverage remains at a concerning level, of 5.6x LTM adjusted EBITDA, jeopardizing the company’s
operating results with financial expenses. We are increasingly skeptical regarding the stock, especially due to the strong margin
compression in BU1 and the company’s indebtedness.
FLRY3
Fleury reported neutral 4Q23 results, with net income of R$81M. Revenues kept the pace, increasing 5% YoY, yet with all PSC brands
posting growth. Cost efficiencies and a worse revenues mix had a net-zero impact on gross margin, yet expenses dilution yielded an
EBITDA margin expansion of 1.1 p.p. YoY. Leverage remained at a healthy 2.1x LTM EBITDA, and operating cash conversion was strong,
at 1.1x EBITDA. However, we highlight the deterioration in receivables’ cycle, following a sector-wide negative trend. Top-line growth and
margin expansion remain tough, reinforcing our neutral view towards the stock.
HAPV3
Hapvida reported positive 4Q23 results, with an Adjusted Net Income XP of R$172M. Top-line increased 6.7% YoY, as the company
continues to foster profitability over volume growth, improving the quality of the health plan portfolio to push MLR downwards, to 69.3% (-
3.6 p.p. YoY; -2.6 p.p. QoQ). Also, on the expenses level, the company continues to harvest synergies from the acquisition of GNDI. Adj.
EBITDA margin XP expanded 5.9 p.p. YoY (+3.5 p.p. QoQ) as a result of the MLR and expenses improvements, and we expect
improvements in both MLR and expenses to further expand margins in the coming quarters. Leverage remains high, at 3.5x Adj. EBITDA
XP, though we note that it is quickly decreasing. Although seeing the results positively, we believe they were already widely expected by
market participants.
Source: XP Research. 26
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Healthcare
HYPE3
Hypera reported negative 4Q23 results, with net income of R$308M. Net revenues decreased 13% YoY, dragged tougher market
dynamics and a deceleration in sell-out still being caught up by sell-in. EBITDA margin decreased 2.8 p.p. YoY mainly due to lower
operating leverage. Bottom-line was impacted by still high financial expenses, given the company’s fairly high leverage (2.7x Adj. EBITDA).
The company showed a strong quarterly operating cash conversion fostered by top-line deceleration, yet we note that once growth picks-
up we may see a rebound effect. The company also disclosed its 2024 guidance, slightly below our estimates. We believe that both the
negative results and the guidance for 2024 are already priced-in at the current level HYPE is trading.
KRSA3
Kora posted mixed 4Q23 results, with a close to zero adjusted bottom-line. Revenues increased 5% YoY driven mainly by an increase in
operating beds, and mix, with a drag from lower utilization. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 1.4% YoY, with third-party costs reduction
partially offset by greater costs with consumables and medicine and personnel expenses. Net financial expenses consumed 83% of
adjusted EBITDA, as the company closed the year with a net leverage of 5.3x LTM adjusted EBITDA. Finally, working capital remains a
concern, with receivables days still as the main source of pressure. All in, we maintain our cautious view on the name due to still
toughmarket dynamics and the company’s capital structure.
MATD3
Mater Dei reported slightly negative 4Q23 results, with an adjusted net income of R$46M. Revenues increased 5.7% YoY (-4.8% QoQ),
mainly on the backs of an increase in volumes and average ticket, brought by mix and price increases. Additionally, we note the QoQ
increase of disallowances to gross revenues over the quarter. EBITDA margin decreased 3.0 p.p. YoY (-3.4 p.p. QoQ), especially due to
impacts from greater costs with medical services, maintenance and others. Adjusted leverage remains high, at 3.1x adjusted EBITDA
LTM. Even though the company has posted top-line improvements, we see market dynamics, margin deterioration, and leverage as
points of concern.
ODPV3
Odontoprev reported slightly positive 4Q23 results, with a net income of R$126M. The highlights were: (i) topline increased 6.1% YoY,
following majorly an increase in number of beneficiaries in Corporate and SME portfolios; (ii) DLR decreased 0.5 p.p. YoY, mainly due to
an improvement in Corporate plans’ DLR; (iii) nonrecurring items impacted expenses and dragged EBITDA margin; and (iv) financial
results continued to aid bottom-line. Also, the company announced a 10M-share buyback program and the proposal of a R$427M
dividend, which altogether can represent an 8.2% adjusted dividend yield for 2024. In spite of the positive results wemaintain our neutral
view on the stock due to limited upside potential.
Source: XP Research. 27
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Healthcare
ONCO3
Oncoclínicas reported slightly negative 4Q23 results, with adjusted net income of R$87M. Revenues increased 18% YoY fostered mainly
by volumes, and Adj. EBITDA margin was flattish YoY, with higher cashcosts offset by other revenues. Bottom-line was aided by one-off
financial revenues arising from prepayment of M&A obligations, and minority income to Adj. EBITDA decreased 12 p.p. QoQ. Leverage
stood at 4.0x, pressured by a deterioration in working capital cycle, which caused an operating cash consumption of R$41M. Despite the
strong growth and stable margin, we see the results negatively due to the (i) negative operating cash flow, and (ii) high leverage.
Nevertheless, we still see the business positively.
RDOR3
Rede D’Or reported neutral 4Q23 results, with a net income of R$668M. The hospital business reported a 9.3% YoY increase in top-line
majorly pushed by higher average tickets, with EBITDA margin expanding 1.5 p.p. YoY mainly from cost efficiencies. The insurance
business keeps improving, especially through top-line expansion and initiatives to reduce costs and expenses. Financial result aided
bottom-line, though we saw some deterioration in the company’s working capital. We see the profitability and margins trending a positive
way, yet the company’s apparent difficulty to deliver growth and expansion projects’ postponements are a point of attention.
VVEO3
Viveo reported negative 4Q23 results, with adjusted net income of R$52M. Revenues increased 11% YoY (9% organically), with growth
coming from all four verticals. Adjusted EBITDA margin had a slight decrease YoY, with a mix composed of higher cost drugs yielding
lower margins. Bottom-line was negatively impacted by net financial expenses, with leverage at 3.8x, and we note the R$477M operating
cash consumption, caused by a deterioration in working capital items. We are increasingly cautious regarding the distribution sector and
the company’s currently stressed capital structure and operation.
Source: XP Research. 28
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Homebuilders
CURY3
Cury posted robust results, boosted by stronger-than-expected bottom-line expansion. Net revenue increased (+40% YoY), driven by
healthy net pre-sales (+20% YoY). Gross margin was above us (+0.5 p.p. vs. XPe), reaching 38.7% (+50bps YoY and +90bps QoQ). We
highlight backlog margin reaching 42% (flat YoY), suggesting a solid gross margin outlook. Net income had a strong expansion, reaching
R$160mn (+75% YoY and +11% vs. XPe), driven by a strong combination of revenues increasing sharply and robust profitability. All in all,
ROE (LTM) reached outstanding levels of 59.6% (vs. 49.7% in 4Q23). Thus, we maintain CURY3 as our top pick in the low-income segment
with a TP of R$ 21.00/sh.
CYRE3
Cyrela posted solid results in 4Q23, fueled by top line reaching R$ 1.7bn (+25% YoY and 5% QoQ), driven by remarkable operating
performance. Gross margin increased to 33.7% (+20bps QoQ) in the quarter, beating our estimates by ~20bps, driven by new launches
with higher margins vs. 2022. Cyrela also posted higher G&A expenses in the quarter (+8% YoY), due to higher indemnities (+152% YoY).
Net income reached R$ 248mn (+19% YoY and -1% QoQ), almost in line with our estimates (-4% vs. XPe), largely driven by (i) positive
results from the subsidiaries (Cury, Plano, Lavvi); (ii) revenue expansion; and (iii) solid profitability. As a result, the net margin reached
robust levels of 14.5%, leading ROE (LTM) to 13.1%. All in all, we reiterate our preference for Cyrela in the mid/high-income segment with
a buy rating and TP of R$ 26.0/sh.
DIRR3
Direcional posted robust results in 4Q23, motivated by a robust bottom-line expansion. Net revenue increased 19% YoY, in line with our
estimates, helped by robust net pre-sales (+80% YoY) although affected by higher presence non-consolidated sales. Deferred revenues
significantly increased to R$ 1.71bn (+60% YoY), suggesting solid revenue recognition ahead. Adjusted gross margin reached 35.7% (-0.6
p.p. YoY and -0.5 p.p. vs. XPe), impacted by units sold in the Pode Entrar program. Also, adjusted net income R$ 100mn (+27% YoY),
above our estimates by 14%, helped by (i) stronger equity income of R$ 15mn (+203% YoY), and (ii) expenses dilution. Thus, we reiterate
our buy rating for DIRR3 with a TP of R$ 26.00/sh.
EVEN3
Even posted mixed results in 4Q23. On the positive side, net revenue had a robust performance at R$ 939mn (+89% YoY and +44% QoQ),
backed by stronger net pre-sales Even SP (+150% YoY). On the negative side, gross margin maintained under pressure at 23.8% (+4.4 p.p
YoY), impacted by the structured sale of 100% of project Sabiá Studio’s tower, in spite of better margins stemming from Melnick. Net
income reached R$ 57mn (vs. R$ 150k net income in 4Q22 and +19% QoQ), in line with our estimates, benefited by the strong top-line
growth although maintaining pressured net margin levels of 6.1% (-1.3 p.p. QoQ). We maintain our buy rating and TP of R$ 9.0/sh, as we
see an interesting growth scenario for launches in SP.
Source: XP Research. 29
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Homebuilders
EZTC3
EZTEC posted positive results, explained by net revenue increasing to R$ 338mn (9% YoY), slightly above our estimates (+2% vs. XPe),
mainly driven by the overcoming of suspensive clauses in the project Lindenberg Ibirapuera, adding R$70mn in the top line. Net income
reached R$ 83mn (+163% YoY and +112% QoQ), mainly driven by: (i) top line rebound; and (ii) higher-than-expected financial results
reaching R$ 24mn (+25% YoY and +73% QoQ) due to positive IGP-DI dynamics on interest income from accounts receivable.
LAVV3
Lavvi posted robust results in 4Q23. Top-line increased significantly at +74% YoY, fueled by (i) PoC evolution in the project Villa Versace
(+7 p.p. QoQ); and (i) solid inventory sales with higher PoC (~55% average). Gross margin improved to 34.4% (+0.8 QoQ and +1.2 p.p. vs.
XPe), with higher margins stemming from Saffire project. Backlog margin increased to 35.8% (+0.7 p.p. YoY), which we believe could
continue supporting sound gross margin levels ahead. Net income had an impressive growth (+171% YoY and +19% vs. XPe), leading net
margin to 34.5% (+12.4 p.p. YoY), backed by stronger-then-expected equity income of R$ 22mn (+24% vs. XPe). We reiterate our Buy
rating for LAVV3 with a TP of R$ 9.40/sh.
MDNE3
Moura Dubeux posted strong results as expected in 4Q23, boosted by strong profitability from the condominium segment. Net revenue
had a sound performance (+36% YoY), driven by robust growth from condominium net revenues (+135% YoY). We have positive
prospects for revenue growth in the next few quarters as only one of MDNE’s four condominium launches in 4Q23 had land development
fees recognized. The gross margin was stronger than expected at 35.6% (+7.7 p.p. YoY + 2.1 p.p. vs. XPe), with an impressive gross
margin stemming from condominiums (52.3% in the quarter). All in, net income had robust performance at R$ 34mn (+219% YoY and
+5% vs. XPe), leading ROE (LTM) to 12.4% (+3.1 p.p. YoY), which we see as strong and above the sector’s average. We reiterate our buy
rating for MDNE3 with TP of R$ 16.5/sh.
MELK3
Melnick posted positive results in 4Q23. Top-line had a solid performance at R$ 384mn (+82% YoY), driven by (i) net pre-sales at a
stronger level of R$ 215mn (+75% YoY), and (ii) the evolution of the average POC, with the Nilo Square project as a highlight. Gross
margin increased sharply to 26.9% (+8.2 p.p. YoY), supported by (i) stronger margins from the Nilo Square project, and (ii) higher margins
stemming from recently launched projects. Net income posted a robust growth, reaching R$ 47mn (vs. R$ 10mn in 4Q22), helped by the
above factors and a positive dilution of operating expenses (SG&A as a percentage of net sales at 11% in 4Q23 vs. 16% in 4Q22).
Source: XP Research. 30
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Homebuilders
MRVE3
MRV posted mixed results in 4Q23, affected by pressured gross margin and bottom line. MRV&Co's net revenue increased to R$ 1.94bn
(+17% YoY), helped by record-high net pre-sales from MRV Inc. Gross margin continued on a gradual recovery, reaching 24.1% (+4.0 p.p.
YoY), supported by new sales gross margin reaching 36.5%, backed by robust price increases in the quarter (+19% YoY). Bottom-line
maintained under pressure, with MRV Inc reporting a net loss of R$ 10mn (R$ 52 adjusted by swaps and mark to market effects) and
MRV&Co reporting a net loss of R$ 105mn, hurt Resia, Luggo and Urba increasing losses. Finally, Resia had a milder cash-burn at R$
40mn, helped by an investment from a limited partner. We maintain our buy rating and TP of R$ 17.0/sh.
PLPL3
Net revenues experienced robust growth in 4Q23, reaching R$ 640mn (+47% YoY and +15% QoQ), slightly above our estimates (+2% vs.
XPe). This performance was mainly driven by: (i) positive private market (ex-Pode Entrar) net pre-sales at R$ 616mn (+19% YoY); and (ii)
robust revenue recognition stemming from units sold in the Pode Entrar housing program. Adjusted gross margin maintained at lower
levels vs. 1H23, as expected, reaching 34.2% (+0.2 p.p. YoY and +0.3 p.p. QoQ), in line with our estimates, and mostly affected by the
higher relevance of units sold in the Pode Entrar program in the results. Net income had a robust growth, reaching R$ 83mn (+44% YoY
and +10% QoQ), in line with our estimates, favored by the notable top line growth and strong profitability.
TEND3
Net revenue maintained positive levels as expected, reaching R$ 755mn (+20% YoY and -4% QoQ), helped by the solid net pre-sales
performance at R$ 842mn (+25% YoY and -9% QoQ). The Tenda segment adjusted gross margin increasing to 27.1% (+11.9 p.p. YoY and
+2.2 p.p. QoQ), driven by the gross margin of new sales reaching 33.7% (+2.6 p.p. YoY and +0.7 p.p. QoQ), motivated by a higher net pre-
sales average price of R$ 205.9k (+7% YoY and flat QoQ). Alea’s profitability was the lowlight, with adjusted gross profit reaching -R$ 5mn
(-11% adjusted gross margin). Tenda’s consolidated adjusted gross margin reached 24.9% (+11.8 p.p. YoY and +0.8 p.p. QoQ), below our
estimates 0.9 p.p. All in, Tenda posted a pressured bottom line, reaching a net loss of R$ 20mn, slightly lower than our estimates of a net
loss of R$ 16mn.
TRIS3
Trisul posted a solid top-line performance, with net revenues reaching R$ 283mn (+39% YoY and +12% QoQ), in line with our estimates
(+1% vs. XPe), supported by a sharp net pre-sales increase (net pre-sales of R$ 325mn; +39% YoY). Gross margins remains at milder
levels of 22.3% (-2.9 p.p. YoY and -0.9% p.p. QoQ), below our estimates (-1.4 p.p. vs. XPe), explained by Trisul’s pricing strategy of higher
discounts in inventory aiming to boost sales volume and, consequently, SoS (SoS reaching 13.3%; +4.3 p.p. YoY). Net income reached R$
44mn (+63% YoY and +94% QoQ), well above our estimates (+57% vs. XPe), significantly helped by R$ 20.5mn impact coming from the
revaluation of two of the company’s assets (Itaquá Parque Shopping and Open Mall Maurilio Biagi). Adjusted by this effect, we estimate
that net income reached R$ 24mn (-15% vs. our estimates).
Source: XP Research. 31
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Income Properties
ALOS3
Allos posted positive results in 4Q23, in our view. Tenant sales increased 6.7% YoY boosted by accessories and fast food. Occupancy rate
grew 60bps QoQ, reaching 96.3%, above our estimates by 30bps. SSR was positive at +5% YoY, although rental revenue growth was mild
(+3.5% YoY), impacted by a challenging IGP-M scenario. Parking revenue was a highlight, increasing 16% YoY, driven by fee adjustments.
Net delinquency reached -1.7% (-40bps YoY), leading to a strong reduction of provisions (-75% YoY), boosting NOI and EBITDA margins
growth. Also, FFO had solid growth (+15% YoY and +13% vs. XPe), helped by lower-than-expected financial expenses. We maintain our
buy rating for ALOS3 and TP of R$ 34.0/sh.
IGTI11
Iguatemi posted robust results in 4Q23. Operationally, sales increased 11.7% YoY, and 8.8% in January. Occupancy costs dropped to
11.1% (-70bps YoY), and net delinquency reached -1.7%, opening room for Iguatemi to increase leasing spreads. SSR was positive (+5.4
p.p. spread vs. IGP-M adjustment effect). Net revenue growth was positive (+9% YoY), helped by strong parking revenues (+20% YoY),
despite mild minimum rent growth (+2% YoY). EBITDA increased sharply (+29% YoY), helped by (i) the retail segment reaching
breakeven and (ii) the R$ 24.9mn impact from landbank sales. All in, FFO was above our estimates (+9% YoY and +12% vs. XPe). Iguatemi
also revealed its guidance for 2024, with strong prospects for EBITDA expansion (guidance at 75% - 79% for 2024 vs. 69% - 72% in 2023).
We reiterate IGTI11 as our top pick with a buy rating and TP of R$32.50/unit.
LOGG3
LOG CP reported neutral results in 4Q23. On the positive side, LOG maintained a robust operational performance. We highlight a strong
gross absorption (+23% YoY), and stabilized vacancy (LTM) at significantly healthy levels of 0.65% (-193bps. YoY). Beyond that, avg. ticket
increased (+2% YoY), driven by a positive SCR of 1.2% above IPCA, while maintaining a healthy net delinquency rate of 0.4% (LTM). On the
negative side, we still see a pressured P&L. Top-line dropped 24% YoY, explained by a lower GLA in the quarter (-15% YoY) given asset
sales in 2023. Moreover, EBITDA (leasing operations) decreased by 30% YoY (below our estimates by 5%), given higher G&A expenses
(+18% YoY) to support ST expansion plan. All in, FFO from leasing operations decreased by 45% YoY. We have a neutral assessment of
LOG’s results, maintaining our neutral rating and TP of R$ 28.0/sh.
MULT3
Multiplan posted a set of solid results in 4Q23. We highlight tenant sales increasing 9.6% YoY in the quarter and +8.9% YoY in January.
Occupancy costs dropped to 12.4% (-0.8 p.p YoY), helped by the strong sales performance. Occupancy levels increased to 96.3% (+26bps
QoQ) and same-store rent (SSR) increased 3.2% YoY above the IGP-DI adjustment effect (1.3% in 4Q23). Net revenues(1) increased (+9%
YoY), driven by robust revenues from parking (+12% YoY) and real estate for sale (+213% YoY), despite a milder rental revenue growth
(+2% YoY). Net delinquency at -1.1% favored property cost dilution, which helped EBITDA(1) growth (+2% YoY). All in FFO expanded above
our estimates (+12% YoY and +3% vs. XPe), supporting a low level of financial leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.38x in 4Q23 vs. 1.63x in
4Q22), despite a higher capex of R$ 232mn in the quarter. We reiterate our buy rating for Multiplan with a TP of R$33.0/sh.
Source: XP Research. 32
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
AURA33
Aura reported better-than-expected results, with adj. EBITDA of US$ 41 mn +36% QoQ (+11% XPe) reflecting: (i) better results in EPP
(EBITDA +365% QoQ), due to higher sales volumes (+54% QoQ) and lower cash costs (impacted by the processing of lower grade ore in
3Q23); and (ii) decent results in San Andres (EBITDA +47% QoQ), supported by lower cash costs (-12% QoQ). The company also disclosed
its guidance for 2024, with: (i) an increase in volumes of ~14% YoY (mid-range) driven by Almas’ production ramp-up; (ii) slightly higher
cash costs (mainly on EPP and Aranzazu); and (iii) higher capex from Borborema.
CBAV3
CBA reported weak 4Q23 results (although in-line with our expectations), with adj. EBITDA of R$102 million +123% QoQ, -2% YoY and +3%
XPe, reflecting a pressured cost-structure amid low aluminum prices. We highlight: (i) FCF came positive at R$458 million, partly
explained by what we see as one-off effects (e.g.: renegotiation and extension of obligations with suppliers and reduction in the accounts
receivable from Alunorte’s take); (ii) adj. EBITDA margin of 5.4%, reflecting the challenging outlook for aluminum prices; and (iii) leverage
at 7.7x given the lower LTM EBITDA level. Although we continue to see long-term value in CBA, we acknowledge that short-term outlook
should remain pressured at current aluminum prices.
CMIN3
CSN Mineração reported better-than-expected 4Q23 results, with adj. EBITDA of R$2,759 million +39% QoQ and +55% YoY (+10% vs.
XPe). We note that the beat to our estimates came due to better-than expected prices (+2% XPe) and lower-than-expected costs, with
improvements mostly driven by a better seasonality and reflecting on improved EBITDA margins, which came at 55.0% (compared to
50.6% XPe). In addition, we note that the company reached its production guidance of 42.0-42.5 mt and the guidance for C1 cash cost of
US$22/t. We reiterate our Neutral view on CSN Mineração.
CSNA3
CSN reported better-than-expected 4Q23 results, with adj. EBITDA of R$3,626 million +29% QoQ and +16% YoY (+9% vs. XPe). With (i)
mining operations as the positive highlight, coupled with the (ii) logistics division’s profitability remaining at solid levels, the company was
able to partly mitigate the weak numbers from (iii) steel division, with margins slightly improving to 5.9% (+ 1p.p. vs XPe) and with EBITDA
beating our estimates (+R$ 54 million vs XPe). Finally, we reiterate our Neutral rating on CSN, mostly on valuation grounds and amid a
challenging short-term outlook for the steel industry in Brazil on a pressured pricing outlook.
Source: XP Research. 33
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
GGBR4
Gerdau reported weak results in 4Q23, as widely expected, with adj. EBITDA of R$ 2.0 billion -39% QoQ (and in-line with consensus and
slightly below XPe). We highlight: (i) weak results in Brazil’s BD, with profitability negatively impacted by lower unit revenues, although
partly mitigated by lower costs (with EBITDA margin of 8.5% +120bps vs. XPe); (ii) seasonally weaker volumes in North America’s BD
contributing to a profitability decline (EBITDA margin of 19.1% -100bps vs. XPe); and (iii) worse-than-expected results in South America’s
BD, impacted by lower sales volumes (-16% QoQ) and the effects of hyperinflation in Argentina (details on inflation and FX in page 2). We
reiterate our Buy rating for Gerdau
USIM5
Usiminas reported improving 4Q23 results, with adj. EBITDA of R$265 million reflecting a solid performance of mining division and a still
weak performance of steel division (although showing improvements vs. 3Q23). With company’s indications of stable steel unit prices in
1Q24E (see details below) and no immediate reason to believe in near-term price hikes, it is still unclear to us the pace and magnitude of
cost improvements to drive profitability recovery in the steel division, possibly explaining Usiminas’ stock underperformance today
(although it is reasonable to expect a part of this cost reduction to be already reported in 1Q24E). Finally, we believe that with working
capital now closer to normalized levels, further FCF generation should be more limited given the abovementioned outlook for the steel
industry. We reiterate our Neutral rating on Usiminas.
VALE3
Vale reported better-than-expected 4Q23 results, with adj. proforma EBITDA of US$6.7 billion +7% vs. XPe. With operating figures already
reported (click here), we note iron ore solutions as the positive highlight (adj. EBITDA +44% QoQ), with cash C1/t of US$20.8/t improving
5% QoQ (with 2023FY figure of US$22.3/t slightly below Vale’s guidance of US$22.5/t). Moreover, Vale announced dividends of US$2.4
billion (4.0% yield), still relying on a comfortable balance sheet position, with net expanded debt of US$16.2 bn already including an
additional Samarco-related provision of US$1.2 bn (below our expectations of ~US$3.2 bn) and not including VBM’s cash inflow of
~US$3.4 bn (expected to be included in Vale’s cash balance once the transaction is concluded). After upgrading Vale, we reiterate our Buy
rating for the shares.
Source: XP Research. 34
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
BRKM5
Braskem reported a soft 4Q23, much in line with XPe. Adj EBITDA came at R$1049 mn (+14% QoQ). Recurring FCF (ex. Alagoas
payments) was negative (R$ 344mn), driven by R$ 1.1bn in interest payments. On top of that, there was ~R$ 0,3bn in Alagoas payments.
Net Debt remained stable QoQ around US$ 5.1bn and reported ND/Adj EBITDA reached 8.64x (from 12.99x in 3Q23). As the 4Q23
continued to be a tough period for the petrochemical sector, with prices and spreads remaining at historically low levels; we take as
positive to confirm the slight improvement in some indicators, although we believe it is early for interpreting these as a structural
turnaround for the sector in 2024. We keep our neutral view on the name.
PETR4
Petrobras reported EBITDA in line with consensus and a 5% miss to XPe when taking non-recurring items into account. However, the
highlight for the quarter was Petrobras’ BoD choice to keep dividends as per the minimum formula (USD 2.9bn, ~3% yield), proposing
directing the remaining profit for the year (USD 8.9bn) to be fully allocated to the recently created capital remuneration reserve. We
expect a negative market reaction to the BoDdecision, as this will trigger investors to rethink their view on Petrobras’ risks. We see the
investments thesis now as a matter of assessing the probability of large M&A moves taking place in the short term (which may drive
stockpiled cash to be returned to investors ahead).
PRIO3
PRIO’s posted soft, albeit expected, 4Q23 results, slightly below our estimates. Adj. EBITDA was USD 476mn (-26% QoQ, +292% YoY), -6%
vs. Xpe, but +6% vs. consensus This was another quarter of breaking records, with the lowest lifting cost (USD 6.8/bbl, -2.9% QoQ) and
highest production (~100.3 kbbld). FCF came at USD 216mn (~3% yield, ~11% annualized). CAPEX was USD 218mn (mainly for the
Wahoo field). Leveraged (ND/Adj EBITDA) was down to 0.7x from 0.9x in 3Q23. We think investors’ attention now will be on Ibama’s
environmental licenses, the ongoing operations after the issues affecting 2024’s beginning production, capital allocation, and the new
reserves’ certification report. PRIO3 remains a buy and our top pick.
RECV3
PetroReconcavo reported a 4Q23 below our expectations and consensus and we expect a negative market reaction. Adj EBITDA (ex-
hedge) came at R$ 313mn (-30% QoQ, -20% vs. XPe and -17% vs consensus). According to the company, the problems of flow and
production restriction in Rio Grande do Norte resulted in a total estimated effect of R$ 171mn in lost EBITDA. FCF came negative at ~R$
100mn, but if we exclude payable for acquisitions, it would be close to zero. However, looking through a normalized viewpoint,
considering that ~R$170 million of potential EBITDA was lost, and if 100% of this were converted to FCF, we would have an annualized
FCF yield of ~10%.
Source: XP Research. 35
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
RRRP3
3R reported slight weak (albeit mostly expected) 4Q23 financial results. Adj. EBITDA came at R$697mn (-16% QoQ, -3% vs XPe and -7%
below Bloomberg’s consensus), driven by Upstream R$ 806mn (+1% QoQ, 50.1%margin) while Mid&Downstream EBITDA reduced from
R$ 177mn in 3Q23 to R$ 22mn during 4Q23 (3.7% margin), on the back of the scheduled shutdowns of the NGPU and the refinery.
ND/EBITDA (annualizing the last two quarters) stood at 2.2x, and a series of debt emissions reinforced the company’s cash position. 3R
informed a whooping CAPEX acceleration, US$ 165mn or R$ 815mn in the quarter (albeit there was minimum CF impact during this
quarter as this should take place during 1Q24.
UGPA3
Ultrapar reported a solid 4Q23, with Adj. Rec. EBITDA at R$1.666 mn (-16% QoQ and +122% YoY), mostly in line with Xpe (+3%, -21% QoQ)
and 6% above consensus. Unit EBITDA for Ipiranga came 4% vs XPe while Unit EBITDA for Ultragaz came -3% vs XPe. On the upside, the
holding presented a strong FCF (driving leverage down), and Ipiranga had another stellar quarter (mostly from new record high unit gross
profit), with the negative being consolidated G&A growing almost 40% and CAPEX guided for 2024 coming above our expectations. We
still see Ultrapar as a premium company with a rich valuation, and therefore, we keep our neutral rating.
UNIP6
Unipar reported lower-than-expected 4Q23 results on the back of low sales prices and the effects of inflation and FX devaluation in
Argentina. XP’s Adj EBITDA (EBITDA minus other operation revenues/expenses and equity income) came at R$90 mn (-70% QoQ), -44%
vs. XPe's of R$160 mn. Excluding the effects of inflation and currency devaluation in Argentina, the XP’s Adj EBITDA would be R$270 mn.
Considering the challenging scenario for the global petrochemical sector, alongside a tough quarter, we continue to see some strengths
in Unipar’s business. The company continues to present a strong balance sheet, with a Net Cash position of R$94 mn, with enough
firepower to explore opportunities in a fragile sector.
VBBR3
Vibra reported another set of solid results, albeit mostly in line with our expectations. Unit Adj. EBITDA came at R$ 163/m³ (-5% vs XPe, -
29% QoQ, +228% YoY). Net income came very strong at R$ 3.3bn, boosted by non-recurring tax gains. Vibra’s management pointed out
that the lack of Russian diesel was one of the key drivers for the market share loss, something that may change now, as the company
seems more prone to bring molecules from this country. The cash flow generation was the main driver for the R$ 0.7bn reduction
in Net Debt, which alongside a higher LTM EBITDA, resulted in a contraction in ND/EBITDA to 1.9x. We keep our buy rating.
Source: XP Research. 36
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
KLBN11
Klabin reported in-line results, with adj. EBITDA of R$1,620 million +20% QoQ and -15% YoY (+3% XPe), implying on EBITDA margin of
36.0% (+5p.p QoQ). Main highlights are: (i) lower demand for kraftliner impacting paper sales volumes (-22% YoY); (ii) slightly lower pulp
sales volumes (-3% QoQ), offset by higher realized prices (+6% QoQ); and (iii) flat pulp cash costs QoQ. For pulp, EBITDA reached R$495
million (+13% QoQ), mostly driven by better-than-expected softwood/fluff volumes (+3% QoQ). For Paper & Packaging, EBITDA reached
R$ 1,124 million (+20% QoQ), driven by better top-line performance (+3% QoQ) and lower costs, positively impacting margins (+5p.p.
QoQ). We reiterate our Neutral rating on Klabin.
RANI3
Irani reported softer but in-line results, with EBITDA of R$112 million -16% QoQ and -2% XPe, implying on EBITDA margin of 29.1%
(compared to 32.7% in 3Q23, in-line with XPe). The main highlights were: (i) lowerthan- expected corrugated carboard volumes (-10% vs.
XPe), despite improving vs. 3Q23 (+2% QoQ); and (ii) higher-than-expected volumes of flexible paper (+22% XPe). Net debt/EBITDA
remained stable at 2.07x in Q4. We highlight the normalization of corrugated cardboard prices and margins, which we expect to stabilize
over the next few quarters. We keep our Neutral rating for Irani and TP of R$ 12.00/share.
SUZB3
Suzano reported neutral results, with adj. EBITDA of R$4.5 billion +22% QoQ and in-line with XPe and consensus, implying on EBITDA
margin of 43.4% (+2 p.p. QoQ). We highlight: (i) higher sales volumes (+12% QoQ), with the 2023FY YoY reduction reflecting the
company’s decision to cut production for 2H23; (ii) better prices (+4% QoQ in USD), reflecting pulp improvement throughout 4Q23; and (iii)
lower unit pulp cash costs (ex-maintenance, -8% QoQ), mainly on further cost efficiency efforts. Suzano also announced the CEO
succession process for Mr. Walter Schalka, who will remain at the current position until Jul’24, with the Board of Directors approving Mr.
João Alberto Fernandes de Abreu (Rumo’s CEO) to succeed as Suzano’s new CEO (which we see as neutral). We reiterate Suzano as our
top-pick in the Pulp & Paper space.
Source: XP Research. 37
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Retail
ALPA4
Alpargatas reported another set of weak results, with improving dynamics in Brazil but still weak international ops. and write-off effects.
Consolidated net sales was down by 9% yoy, as better price/mix was again not enough to offset weak volumes in Brazil (-3%) and abroad
(-48% yoy), with the latter mainly impacted by EMEA (-60% yoy) and distributors (-44% yoy), as the destocking process and operational
challenges remain in place. In terms of profitability, consolidated gross margin remained pressured yoy (-140bps, at 36.3%) on inventory
write-offs and strong operational deleverage at the intl. ops. As a result, Adj. EBITDA mg, excluding Rothy's and Ioasys R$1.2bn goodwill
impairment, also remained pressured (-720bps yoy) though with Brazil posting a sequential improvement (+90bps qoq) on expenses
optimization. Finally, net loss came at R$1.6bn (+R$5mn excluding impairment effects) while FCF remained positive, at +R$103mn, on
CAPEX control and improving WK dynamics, mainly on inventories.
ARZZ3
Arezzo reported in-line Q4 results, with decelerating growth but improving mgs. Net sales were up by 8.6% yoy, supported by AR&Co.
(+16% yoy), Arezzo (+13%) and Vans (+17%), while Intl. ops (- 5.3%) and Schutz Brazil (-5%) remained the lowlights. Channel-wise, DTC
drove growth, with ecommerce and own stores up +29-15%, respectively, while multibrands sales remained flattish yoy, impacted by
Reserva’s branding adjustments, and franchises posted a weak sell-in performance (sell-in SSS at -5%).
ASAI3
Assai reported solid Q4 results, with positive SSS dynamics and improving profitability levels. Net sales were up by 16% yoy, supported by
the company’s expansion plan (+27 stores in 2023), while SSS came at +2.9% yoy (vs. Atacadão’s at -1.8%) despite the food deflation
trend, likely reflecting the positive contribution from 14 conversions already fully accounted on it
BHIA3
Grupo Casas Bahia reported pressured Q4 results, with weak macro and tough comps taking a hit on top line while restructuring
initiatives hurt profitability. Total GMV was down by 12% yoy, impacted by the still challenging macro, World Cup’s tough comps and the
closure of 55 stores in 2023. As a result, B&M GMV was down by 7%, while online GMV declined -22% (1P -23% and 3P - 6%)Profitability
was the lowlight of the results, still heavily impacted by restructuring costs. Gross margin (not adjusting by promotional activity) was
down by 170bps yoy, hit by the company’s more aggressive commercial strategy in the quarter resulting from mgmt.’s focus on reducing
inventory levels. Meanwhile, Adj. EBITDA margin declined by 490bps yoy due to operational deleverage, which more than offset SG&A
expenses optimization efforts.
Source: XP Research. 38
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Retail
CEAB3
C&A once again reported solid Q4 results, with sound top line performance and strong EBITDA beat, yielding on the roll-out of internal
initiatives and operational leverage.
CRFB3
Carrefour Brasil reported mixed results, with food deflation and stores closures pressuring top line performance and bottom line but
improving profitability on core business. Consolidated net sales was down by 1 % yoy , still pressured by food deflation, which couples
with store closures (sales area -13 % ) led retail to be the lowlight once again (SSS - 5.5 % ). As for C&C, SSS remained at negative
grounds (at - 1.8 % ) although improving qoq (+90bps).
DMVF3
d1000 reported solid Q4 results, with strong top line growth supporting operational leverage and margins expansion. Gross sales were up
+16% yoy, on top of strong expansion pace (+30 new stores in 2023), refurbishments and solid SSS performance (mature stores at
+8.5%), yielding on mix adjustments and CRM management. In terms of profitability, gross margin was up 30bps yoy, with higher private
label and mix management more than offsetting lower CMED increase, while EBITDA mg. was up +210bps yoy, on operational leverage.
Finally, net income came at R$10mn, on improving operational results, while FCF was negative at -R$7mn, on heavier Capex.
ENJU3
Enjoei reported solid Q4 results, with strong GMV growth and gross mg expansion, yielding from Elo7’s acquisition. Total GMV was up by
47% yoy, supported by Elo7’s integration, while consolidated net sales were up by 86% yoy, given Elo7’s lower level of subsidies. We note
that Enjoei on a standalone basis reversed the top line deceleration trend (GMV +5% and net sales +6%), reflecting an increase on new
users due to improvements on its platform.
Source: XP Research. 39
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Retail
GMAT3
Grupo Mateus reported solid but in-line Q4 results, with strong top line growth, with improving mgs. and cash cycle trendsNet sales were
up +24% yoy, yielding on the company’s strong expansion (+28 new stores in 2023) and solid SSS trends across all formats (consolidated
at +8.8%, Retail +5.4%, C&C +5.7% and Eletro +15%), supported by the solid performance on yearend events and improving food deflation.
In terms of channels, C&C remains as the growth backbone (+33% yoy), followed by wholesale (+30%) and retail (+11%).
GUAR3
Guararapes reported better than expected Q4 results, with dim top line growth but stronger EBITDA on Midway and retail performance.
LREN3
Lojas Renner reported a weak set of results, with mild top line growth and a miss at the EBITDA level (excl. tax credits) due to weaker
mgs in retail. Consolidated net sales were up +6% yoy, supported by the improving performance at retail (SSS at +6.3%, vs. CEAB at 16%
and GUAR at 4.7%), while Realize posted a more timid performance (+3.8%) on still constrained credit. In terms of profitability,
consolidated gross margin was up +50bps yoy, driven by retail (+20bps), while Adj. EBITDA (excl. tax credits) declined -160bps yoy, due to
ongoing temporary expenses related to Cabreúva’s DC and temporal differences from SOP accounting.
MGLU3
Solid Q4 results; In line top line growth but better mgs with strong FCF.
Source: XP Research. 40
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Retail
MLAS3
Weak Q4 results; Pressured top line and mgs on challenging macro and inventory write off.
NTCO3
PCAR3
GPA reported mixed Q4 results, with in-line sales performance and improving profitability, while bottom line remains pressured on high
leverage and Hiper-related contingencies.
PETZ3
Petz reported weak Q4 results, with pressured top line growth and margins though bottom-line beat on financial results. Consolidated
gross sales were up +5% yoy, with Petz Standalone also up by 5% supported by a strong digital performance (+15% yoy) while SSS was
pressured (-1.6%) by the tough macro, pet inflation deceleration and weaker services revenues (-16%) due to footprint optimization.
Meanwhile acquisitions were the highlight, posting a strong performance (+13%) due to i) Zee’s positive Black Friday results and new
initiatives’ gains; and ii) slim carpets’ growth at Petix.
Source: XP Research. 41
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Retail
PGMN3
Pague Menos reported weak Q4 results, with decelerating top-line and pressured profitability levels. Consolidated gross sales were up by
+8% yoy, supported by PGMN’s performance (SSS at +5.3%), though still impacted by Extrafarma’s (EF) store closures (-34 in 2023) and
termination of its wholesale operation.
PNVL3
In line Q4 results; Solid MSS with gross mg pressure offset by lower selling expenses.
RADL3
RD reported mixed Q4 results, with dim top line and pressured EBITDA, but with bottom-line beat on improving financial results. Gross
sales were up by 14% yoy, impacted by decelerating SSS trends (MSS at +5% and SSS at +7.7% yoy) but helped by another record digital
penetration (sales up +60% yoy reaching a 16.7% penetration) and 4Bio’s performance. Regarding profitability, gross margin was up by
10bps as 4Bio and higher online penetration was offset by product mix (HPC / Generics gaining share over OTC / RX), while Adj. EBITDA
margin (ex-IFRS) was the lowlight, down -70bps (or -30bps excl. 4Q22’s tax one-off) on operational deleverage.
SBFG3
Source: XP Research. 42
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Retail
SMFT3
In line Q4 results; Record expansion yield a solid top line growth but with an (expected) hit on mgs.
SOMA3
Grupo Soma reported a solid set of Q4 results, with in-line top line growth but sound margin expansion on improving gross margin both
at Soma and Hering.
TFCO4
T&F reported mixed Q4 results, with strong top line growth but pressured profitability. Sell-out was up by 21% yoy, driven by franchises
and own stores (+25% and +13%, respectively), leading consolidated net sales to be up +20% yoy, supported by a strong performance
along Black Friday and Christmas, an assertive summer collection and the sales uplift from reformed stores. Segment-wise, net sales
was driven by own stores (+15% yoy), royalties’ strong performance (+34%), followed by franchises (+20%).
Source: XP Research. 43
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Sanitation
AMBP3
Ambipar 4Q23 results were above expectations. Environment had impressive EBITDA margin expansion YoY, mainly attributed to
operational synergy and replacement of contracts. On the other hand, Response had a 1.7% reduction in EBITDA margin YoY due to
+16.6% increase in Cash Cogs. Capex figures decreased to 12.2% of net revenue from 16.8% in 3Q23. We maintain our Buy rating on
Ambipar with a target price of R$ 33/sh.
CSMG3
Copasa 4Q23 results beat our expectations. This positive outcome can be explained by (i) strong billed volumes due to the hot weather in
the quarter, (ii) higher-than-expected average tariff due to a better mix of clients, and (iii) lower delinquency rate due to debt negotiation
campaigns. On the other hand, we had a 10.6% increase in personnel costs due to profit sharing expenses despite the dismissal program
that reduced 6.3% of the employees. That said, we have a positive assessment of Copasa’s 4Q23 result and we maintain our Buy rating
with a target price of R$26.0/sh. Our valuation assumes the Company will remain an SOE.
ORVR3
Orizon posted neutral 4Q23 results with adj. EBITDA of R$78.6million, -2% below our estimates (R$80.3million). On the negative side, we
had waste volumes down by –2% YoY and the discontinuation of the Environmental Engineering business (-45% net revenue YoY). On the
other hand, we had an increased volume of biogas, sold energy, and carbon credit generated. Also, an improvement in operational
efficiency (reduction in cost per ton), start of operation of the biomethane plant, and an increase in the average price of final disposal. As
a result, the gross margin increased from 45.2% to 50.9% A/A. We maintain an optimistic view of the company with a Buy rating and a TP
of R$47/sh.
SBSP3
We have a positive assessment of Sabesp’s 4Q23 results. This beat to our estimates can be explained by (i) a 3.0% increase in the total
billed volume YoY vs. our forecast of 2.2% YoY; (ii) higher than expected billed average tariffs due to a better mix of clients; (iii) lower-
than-expected Opex due a decrease in services and legal expenses; and (iv) reduction in provision for bad debt due to billing programs
returning to more normal levels (close to 2% of net revenues). However, we expect that the main driver for the stock price will be the
development of privatization. We maintain our Buy rating on Sabesp, with a target price of R$110/sh.
Source: XP Research. 44
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
TMT
ALLD3
Allied reported overall mixed results. The company's top-line stood at R$ 1,430 million, +5% YoY but -6% QoQ, mainly driven by a
R$365mn revenue in International distribution sales, which offset the weak performance of the Brazilian operation. The Adj. EBITDA was
R$55 mn, down -23% YoY, and EBITDA margin decreased -140bps YoY, reflecting higher share of the international operation distribution,
which has lower margins (gross margin of 1.9%) and still pressured margins on the Brazilian Operation (Retail and distribution). On the
positive side, Allied reported adjusted net income of R$ 46 mn, 96% YoY, also Net debt/EBITDA LTM reduced to 0.1x (vs. 1.8x in 4Q22),
reflecting company’s efficient cash management. All in all, we maintain our Neutral rating and YE24 TP of R$ 9.0/sh.
BMOB3
Bemobi reported still weak Q4 results, as expected. The company’s results were negatively impacted by the sale of Oi Mobile, resulting in
a 17% reduction in the subscription base. Additionally, the weak performance of international operations combined with the exchange
rate impact led the company's revenue to a drop of –2.9% YoY, but +3.2% QoQ. Finally, adjusted net income excluding the swap effect
was R$ 47mn in 4Q23 (+81.2% YoY and +29.3% above ours), due to lower-than-expected tax rates. Despite the positive performance in
Payments and microfinance, it was not enough to offset the weak quarter. However, the company remains optimistic about the
prospects of these segments. For now, we maintain our Buy rating and YE24 TP of R$ 20.0/sh.
BRIT3
Brisanet reported neutral 4Q23 results, mostly in line with our estimates. Net revenue was R$ 325mn (+17% YoY and +5% QoQ) and
Adjusted EBITDA was R$ 152mn (6% YoY and +1% QoQ). The company reported a YoY EBITDA margin decrease of -490bps, reaching
46.6%, due to higher expenses related to the mobile operations (4G/5G). Net debt remained virtually flat, resulting in an LTM Net
Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.29x (vs. 1.38x in 3Q23). On the negative side, due to the challenging macroeconomic scenario and intense
competition, the company increased its churn rate to 2.32% in 4Q23 (compared to 2.24% in 3Q23). We maintain our Neutral rating and
YE24 TP of R$5.0/share.
DESK3
Desktop reported solid Q4 results, mostly in line with our estimates, but EPS beat. We highlight the solid performance of net revenue
(+33% YoY and +3% QoQ), which was driven by increase in net additions, reflecting higher penetration of the existing network and the
expansion of geographic coverage via organic expansion and Fasternet M&A, having added 39 new cities to its coverage area in LTM.
The company was also able maintain high profitability levels, with the EBITDA margin of 51.5% (+130bps QoQ and above ours). Together
with the results, the company also shared encouraging operational data regarding organic net additions of clients for January and
February 2024, which were +10,056 and +10,074, respectively. All in all, we maintain our Buy rating and YE24 TP of R$21.0/sh. for DESK3.
Source: XP Research. 45
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
TMT
ELMD3
Eletromidia reported solid and above our estimates 4Q23 results. Net revenue was up +23% YoY, given the solid performance of buildings
and street segments. Adjusted EBITDA reached R$166 mn (+34% YoY), +6% above our expectations, with a margin of 49.2% (+410bps
YoY and +80bps above XPe). This was driven by a favorable sales mix, with the streets and buildings segments having greater relevance,
as they are the most profitable verticals, as well as gains in scale. We reiterate our Buy rating and YE24 TP of R$23.0/sh. for ELMD3.
FIQE3
Unifique reported overall in-line Q4 results. On the negative side, net revenue remained flat QoQ (below peers), and the +22% YoY growth
was primarily driven by inorganic growth over the last twelve months, as Unifique has faced challenges in achieving organic expansion.
The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 49.0%, representing a 140bps YoY increase, driven by operational leverage. Additionally, churn rate
remained relatively stable QoQ at 1.72% (compared to 1.81% in 4Q22 and 1.71% in 3Q23). All in all, we maintain our Buy rating and YE24
TP of R$7.5/sh.
INTB3
Despite a -4.5% YoY decrease in net revenue, there was a significant +24.5% QoQ increase, surpassing our expectations by +8.9%. The
performance of the Energy segment was the main driver of this growth. Despite a decline in gross margin due an addition of raw
materials in provision of inventory obsolescence, the company achieved an EBITDA of 13.4%, showing improvement compared to the
previous year. An agreement with Renovigi’s former shareholders also led to a reduction in liabilities for company acquisitions.. We also
took the opportunity to update our estimates in order to incorporate 4Q23 results and new projections across all. We see INTB3 currently
trading at 2024E EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples of 10.1x and 12.1x, respectively.
LWSA3
Locaweb reported in-line Q4 results, with a sold margin recovery. Net revenue grew by 15% YoY, driven by an 18% YoY growth in the
commerce segment, while Be Online/SaaS sales increased by 8% YoY. The consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 330bps
QoQ, with the commerce margin up by 500bps YoY. Adjusted net income decreased by 13% YoY. Additionally, the company recalculated
earnouts of R$76.7mn due to the better-than-expected performance of acquired companies. Out of the total of R$756.6mn, R$725.2mn
has already been recorded as a provision. The scheduled cash disbursement is R$560mm in Apr/24 (47% of the current cash position)
and R$195mm in Apr/25. The increase in the earnouts led to the recognition of a financial expense of R$126.3mn. Overall, we maintain
our neutral rating and YE24 TP of R$7.0/sh.
Source: XP Research. 46
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
TMT
POSI3
Positivo reported solid and in-line results in 4Q. Net Revenue increased +28% YoY, primarily driven by a boost in special projects sales.
Gross profit margin was 26.6% (-820bps YoY), given difficult comparison base in 4Q22. As a result, the EBITDA margin was 16.1% (-
290bps YoY, but +180bps QoQ), benefiting from the revenue channel mix and the better profitability of projects for public institutions and
the corporate segment, as well as special projects. It is worth highlighting the net cash generation in the quarter of R$ 116mn, resulting in
a leverage ratio of 1.5 ND/EBITDA LTM (vs 1.6x in 3Q23). Moreover, together with the results, the company announced its Gross Revenue
guidance for 2024 ranging from R$ 4.0bn to R$ 4.5bn excluding the acquisition of Algar TI (which is in-line with ours, as we have R$4.4bn
in our model). We maintain our Buy rating and YE24 TP of R$10.0/sh. for POSI3.
TIMS3
Mobile Service revenues totaled R$ 5.7bn in 4Q, growing 7.6% YoY and Mobile ARPU achieved the highest value at R$31, up 16% YoY.
This is a significant milestone for the company and reflects the redemption of a sector that has faced challenges in recent years. As we
have been indicating for the past years, the sector has undergone structural changes, and 2023 proved to be a turning point with a strong
acceleration in top-line and cash generation.
TOTS3
Consolidated Net Revenue (net of funding costs) rose to R$1.2bn (+18% YoY, +2% QoQ), in-line with XPe, driven by Management and BP.
Recurring revenues grew by 19% YoY, with a solid consolidated ARR net addition of R$193mn (+1% YoY, +11% QoQ). Management ARR
reached R$4.3bn, with a net addition of R$164mn in the quarter. However, TechfinRevenue net of funding declined by -3% YoY, -25% QoQ,
with funding cost dynamics affected by volatility which was somehow expected due to the JV ramp-up. Adjusted EBITDA margin
decreased by -130bps YoY to 21.6%, impacted by lower margins in BP, decreased credit production by Agribusiness affiliates in Q4, and
salary updates in management. Finally, adjusted net income stood at R$157mn, flat YoY and -21% below our estimates
VIVT3
The company reported strong top line growth (+6.9% YoY), with FTTH and mobile service revenues growing +16.5% and +8.7%,
respectively. Moreover, EBITDA margin expanded +110bps YoY, due to solid performance of core revenues and cost control. Finally, Vivo
reported net income of R$ 1.6bn, up +42.2% YoY and +13.7% above ours, benefited by strong EBITDA and lower-than-expected income
taxes.
Source: XP Research. 47
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Transportation
AZUL4
Azul reported positive operational results in 4Q23, with reported EBITDA of R$1.5 billion (+34% YoY) on a combination of (i) recovered
demand (RPKs +9% YoY), (ii) a better yield environment (+4% YoY); and (iii) an increase in load factor (+1.9p.p. YoY). On the other hand,
we note higher CASK pressure (+9% QoQ), mainly stemming from an increase in fuel prices (CASK Fuel +15% QoQ). Revised guidance for
2024, implying slightly better outlook in medium term. We reiterate our Neutral rating.
CCRO3
CCR reported positive results, with adj. EBITDA of R$2.1 billion (+3% YoY and -10% QoQ, in-line with our expectations), reflecting a positive
overall traffic performance, with improvements in all three segments. We note (i) continued traffic enhance in airports and urban mobility,
positively impacted by the economic recovery (total traffic up +10% YoY and +4% YoY, respectively); and (ii) adj. EBITDA increase being
mainly impacted by the growth in toll roads and urban mobility EBITDA (+15% YoY and +30% YoY, respectively).
ECOR3
Ecorodovias reported positive results, Adj. EBITDA of R$1,016mn (+49% YoY; +9% YoY comparable*). We note as positives: (1) strong
comparable* toll-road top line (+18% YoY) on solid traffic growth (+11% YoY) and high tariff readjustments (+5% YoY); and (2) ECOR
reported its full capex commitment of R$40.5bn (including R$22.7bn from most recent portfolio additions), strictly in line with our model.
On the negative side, leverage remains high at 3.5x net debt/EBITDA (although with continuously lower holding-level debt). We reiterate
our Buy rating.
HBSA3
Hidrovias do Brasil reported a weak 4Q23, as expected, with adj. EBITDA of R$8mn (-93% YoY; vs. XPe –R$2mn). We note a weak EBITDA
performance in (i) Northern Corridor (-R$39mn) as the company decided to advance maintenance breaks due to low draft levels; and (ii)
Southern Corridor (R$38mn; -21% YoY) under a “shallow waters protocol” reducing volumes and increasing costs. On the other hand, we
see a continued ramp-up in Santos (EBITDA +123% YoY). We reiterate our Buy rating on positive S&D prospects for Mato Grosso grain
exports.
Source: XP Research. 48
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Transportation
JSLG3
JSL reported a positive quarter, with net income of R$82million (+42% QoQ and 23% above XPe). The company reported with a robust
top-line of 2.2bn (+8% QoQ and +30% YoY), backed by positive dynamics in both segments (asset-light +9% QoQ and asset-heavy +1%
QoQ). The highlight of the quarter was the continued operational improvements upon repricing efforts and contract base expansion. Also,
we still see opportunities of efficiency gains in the most recent acquisitions (IC Transportes and FSJ Logística), as further operational and
financial synergies can be achieved in the next quarters. All in all, we reiterate our positive view and Buy rating for JSL
MOVI3
Movida reported a weak bottom-line in 4Q23 (-R$105mn vs XPe -R$79mn), largely on high depreciation levels both in RaC and Fleet
Rental. On the other hand, we highlight the continued positive Fleet Rental performance (EBITDA +8% QoQ). Furthermore, Movida (i)
booked a R$391mn RaC fleet impairment, providing a cleaner base for 2024 although evidencing the challenging environment for
Seminovos , and (ii) reported unaudited improved results for Jan/Feb’24 indicating a R$21mn net profit (vs. R$24mn net loss in
Jan/Feb’23). We reiterate our Buy rating.
RAIL3
Rumo reported positive 4Q23 results as expected, with EBITDA of R$1.2bn (+33% YoY; -6% vs. XPe) on the back of another quarter with
positive yield growth (+11% YoY) and volume increases due to a record-sized crop (+9% YoY). FY’23 guidance was achieved, with (i)
volume and capex strictly in-line with the mid-point indication, and (ii) EBITDA of R$5.65bn near the top-end of the range (R$5.4-5.7bn).
We see Rumo as on track to deliver a strong 2024 year, for which we believe 1Q24 could be a positive trigger. We reiterate our Buy rating
and positive view for Rumo (top-pick in the Transportation).
RENT3
Localiza reported a polluted set of results, which overall we view as neutral. Adj. net profit of R$751mn beat our estimate by 5%. However,
reallocation of car preparation costs from Seminovos to the rental divisions (neutral for EBITDA and FCF) allows for a short-term
reduction in D&A (potentially offsetting bottom-line beat – see page 2). Operationally we note: (i) a strong rental performance (both RAC
and Fleet Rental showing strong top-line, with a highlight to RAC EBITDA (+10% vs. XPe, mainly on upbeat average tariff performance);
and (ii) weaker-than-expected Seminovos’ results (EBITDA margin -2.7p.p. vs. XPe). We reiterate Buy rating.
Source: XP Research. 49
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
Transportation
SIMH3
Simpar reported results in-line with our expectations, with a still-pressured bottom line (adjusted net loss of R$215mn). The positive
highlights were: (i) Automob’s revenue growth (+17% QoQ); (ii) JSL continued operational improvements upon repricing efforts and
contract base expansion. The negative highlights, were: (i) Movida’s still weak Seminovos performance and higher depreciation levels
impacting the results; and (ii) Vamos weak dealership sales amid a truck/equipment market deceleration. We reiterate our Buy rating for
Simpar.
STBP3
STBP reported positive results, with EBITDA of R$367 million (+10% above XPe). The main highlights: (i) continued favorable pricing
dynamics in container handling (average tariffs +40% YoY and +28% QoQ), boosted by stronger volumes (+13% YoY and +4% QoQ); (ii)
EBITDA beat high end of guidance for FY23 (~R$1bn vs. R$890-970mn of guidance), reaching the low-end of previous guidance of R$1.0-
1.2bn; and (iii) solid net income of R$225mn (+66% YoY). On the other hand, volumes in the adjacent segments remained weak, with (a)
Logistics -8% YoY, and (c) TEV -25% YoY. We reiterate our Buy rating for Santos Brasil.
VAMO3
Rental results remained strong, with (i) solid commercial activity of R$1.1bn (+10% YoY); (ii) marginal yield remained positive at 2.5% (vs.
2.9% in 4Q22); (iii) strong EBITDA performance (+44% YoY); and robust Seminovos EBITDA margin of 30% (vs. 21% in 4Q22). In
Dealerships, performance faltered (EBITDA of -36mn) as agriculture equipment sales remained weak due to uncertainities related to grain
crop profitability. Furthermore, net income was boosted by non-recurrent effects related to ICMS tax benefits.
Source: XP Research. 50
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
AESB3
AES Brasil reported operational results in line with our expectations with its strong portfolio's evolution and better hydro generation YoY.
On the other hand, ONS curtailments partially hurt wind and solar generation. The positive development of the quarter was the evolution
of Cajuína 2, which is very close to completion (94.5%). With that, the company began its deleveraging process. We maintain our neutral
rating on AES Brasil with a target price of R$ 14.0/sh.
ALUP11
Alupar 4Q23 results come in line with our estimates, reflecting the effects of inflation adjustment on its revenues and the expected 50%
decrease in RAP in some assets. Moreover, we expect the company to continue its deleveraging process, which could lead to more
robust dividend distributions. We maintain our neutral rating on ALUP11, with a TP of R$ 33/unit.
AURE3
We have a neutral assessment of Auren’s 4Q23 results. Operational results came aligned with our estimates, with solid hydro and wind
generation. The energy balance showed slightly decreased contracted margins QoQ, mainly due to Auren’s strategy to increase its long
position. Contingent liability front figures remained unchanged in the quarter. We continue to believe that the solid balance sheet position
after the securitization operation is expected to bring additional dividends and new M&A opportunities for the shareholders. We maintain
our Neutral rating on Auren, with a TP of R$15/sh.
CMIG4
Cemig 4Q23 results came better than our estimates. This could be explained by the strong results of Cemig GT and Gasmig. Despite
strong volumes in the distribution segment and positive operational indicators, Cemig D results were in line with our estimates. In general,
we saw that Cemig continues its positive operational trend, and the stock price should react positively as the federalization concerns are
not confirmed. We maintain our Buy rating, with 12-month price targets of R$16/sh.
Source: XP Research. 51
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
EGIE3
Engie reported its 4Q23 results below our expectations, mainly impacted by worse-than-expected operational conditions in the quarter.
These results were affected by lower EBITDA from trading and lower volume of energy sold. The sale of Pampa Sul Power plant also
negatively affected the comparison YoY. We maintain our neutral rating on Engie Brasil, with a target price of R$46/sh.
ELET3
The adjusted EBITDA slightly exceeded our expectations, excluding non-recurrent items such as impairments, MtM adjustments, and
revaluation of assets for sale. Regarding the energy balance, there was little progress in reducing the uncontracted position. On the
Compulsory loan front, the liability decreased by R$1.9 bn QoQ, although gains from agreements were offset by new provisions. Those
results are not yet at the level of efficiency expected post-privatization, but we believe that after the changes in management done in
2H23, they may be achieved in 2024.
EQTL3
We have a neutral assessment of Equatorial’s 4Q23 results. Adj. Ebitda came in line with our expectations, reflecting volume expansion
and loss reduction in the distribution segment. On the other hand, PMSO was impacted by the unusual weather events on the 4Q23 and
measures adopted to improve quality in Maranhão and Piauí. We maintain our Buy rating on Equatorial, with a DCF-based price target of
R$39/sh.
SRNA3
Serena reported its 4Q23 results disappointing our expectations. The results reflect an incidence of resources in line with expectations
hurt by ONS curtailments and availability issues (eligible for refund). In addition, the company released a new 2024 adj EBITDA guidance,
reducing by ~4% vs. the previous one. This revision could be explained by the EDF deal and updated macroeconomic forecasts. We have
a negative assessment of Serena’s 4Q23 results but continue to see the company trading at a discounted valuation.
Source: XP Research. 52
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
TAEE11
We have a neutral assessment of Taesa’s 4Q23 result, as it came in line with our expectations. The EBITDA margin decrease (-1.5p.p.
YoY) can be explained by the negative inflation adjustment of the 2023-2024 RAP cycle for IGP-M concessions (51% of Taesa revenue);
the step-down in RAP at ATE III; and the start of Saíra’s operation (phase 1) and Sant’Ana (partial), whose RAP was not 100% active yet.
We maintain our neutral rating on TAESA, with a R$38/unit target price.
TRPL4
CTEEP’s 4Q23 results came in line with our estimate, with the bottom-line above our forecasts due to the tax benefit on the payment of
Interest on Equity (“IoE”) recognized in the 4Q23. On the other hand, EBITDA margin came smaller than our estimates mainly due to an
increase in PMSO – explained by an increase in the number of employees and services to face the Company’s growth. We have a neutral
assessment of CTEEP’s 4Q23 results and maintain our Neutral rating at CTEEP, with a TP of R$ 26/sh.
Source: XP Research. 53
Equity Research - Strategy April 3, 2024
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13) Technical analysis and fundamental analysis follow different methodologies. Technical analysis is performed following concepts such as trends,
support, resistance, candles, volume, and moving averages, amongst others. Fundamental analysis uses as information the results disseminated by
the issuing companies and their projections. In this way, the opinions of fundamental analysts, who seek the best returns given the market conditions,
the macroeconomic scenario and the specific events of the company and the sector, may differ from the opinions of technical analysts, which aim to
Identify the most likely movements on asset prices, using "stops" limit possible losses.
14) For the purpose of verifying the suitability of the investor's profile to the investment services and products offered by XP Investimentos, we use the
methodology of suitability of products by portfolio, in accordance with the ANBIMA Suitability Rules and Procedures 01 and the ANBIMA Regulation
Code for Investment Product Distribution Practices. This methodology consists of assigning a maximum risk score for each investor profile
(conservative, moderate and aggressive), as well as a risk score for each of the products offered by XP Investimentos, so that all clients can have
access to all the products, as long as they are within the amounts and limits of the risk score defined for their profile. Before applying to the products
and/or contracting the services that are the subject of this material, it is important to verify that the current risk score supports the application in the
products and/or the contracting of the services in question, as well as if there are volume limitations, concentration and/or amount for the desired
application. You can consult this information directly at the time of transmission of your order, or by consulting the general risk of your portfolio on the
portfolio screen (Risk View). If your current risk score does not support the intended application/contracting, or if there are limitations in relation to the
amount and/or financial volume for said application/contracting, this means that, based on the current composition of your portfolio, this application is
not suitable for your profile. In case of doubts about the process of adapting the products offered by XP Investimentos to your investor profile, consult
the FAQ. The recommended duration of the investment is short-term and the client's assets are not guaranteed in this type of product. Market
conditions, climate change and the macroeconomic scenario may affect investment performance.
Source: XP Research. 57
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