Itau Brazil Equity Strategy
Itau Brazil Equity Strategy
Key Takeaways from the Study - If All you Have is 5 Minutes: (Page 3) Deep dive into each metric:
1) Does Value Work? Good News: Value Outperforms in Brazil. Itaú BBA Value Score (Page 20)
EV/EBITDA & P/E Take The Lead (Page 4) Price to Earnings Trailing (Page 24)
Does Value work in Brazil? Analysis of the first quartile’s long only Price to Earnings Forward (Page 28)
return (Page 5)
Price to Book Trailing (Page 32)
Long and Short: Enterprise Value To EBITDA Trailing’s Risk
Premium Outperform The Market (Page 6) Price to Book Forward (Page 36)
2) Our Spice - IQV – IBBA Quant Value Proprietary Score & Study Enterprise Value to EBITDA Trailing (Page 40)
Method (Page 7) Enterprise Value to EBITDA Forward (Page 44)
3) Sector & Stocks: Sector Allocation & Attribution - The Most Dividend Yield Trailing (Page 48)
Frequent & Excess Return Generating Stocks & Sector (Page 8) Dividend Yield Forward (Page 52)
What Are The Main Overweight Sectors? (Page 8)
Sector Exposure Through Time And Long And Short Net Exposure
(Page 11)
4) Don’t Look Back In Anger: Trailing Multiples Worked Better Than
Forward (Page 12)
5) No Pain, No Gain. Performance On Different Business Cycles:
Accelerating GDP is value-best (Page 13)
No Pain, No Gain. Drawdown & Volatility (Page 14)
6) Avoiding Value Traps & Getting Exposed to Positive Externalities
Removing Low ROE stocks Boost Returns (Page 15)
What Quality Do You Get For What You Pay? (Page 16)
7) Seven Value Stocks We Like (Page 17)
2 Source: Itaú BBA
Introducing IQ – IBBA Quant Series: Does Value Portfolios Outperform The Market in Brazil? Seven Value
Stocks We Like – Key Takeaways If All you Have is 5 Minutes
Key message. We evaluated the historical performance of value strategies in Brazil by backtesting 3) Stocks & Sector Allocation & Attribution: The Most Frequent & Excess Return Generating Stocks
metrics such as Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Enterprise Value to EBITDA and Dividend Yield. All & Sectors. Across first quartiles’ portfolios the most overweight sectors were Utilities at 7.6%, Materials at
metrics were backtested in quartiles, using both trailing and forward indicators, and afterwards we 4.5% and Financials at 3.1%, while the most underweight sectors were Industrials at -5.8%, Health Care at
developed our own proprietary “IBBA Value Score”. The first quartile comprises companies with lower -4.8% and Consumer Discretionary at -3.0%, while the sectors that most outperformed the universe were
multiples, the “cheapest” stocks, while the fourth comprises the “most expensive”. 7 Key highlights: Utilities and Energy. The most present stocks were BBAS3, CSMG3, ABCB4, BRSR6 and PETR4.
1) Does Value Work in Brazil? Good News: Value outperform: All metrics analyzed have 4) Don’t Look Back In Anger: Trailing Multiples Worked Better Than Forward. Our research shows
outperformed the Ibov Index in the long term (from January 2011 to December 2024) with EV/EBITDA that, in general, trailing multiples outperform their forward counterparts on most timeframes, with the
trailing showing the best result with an accumulated return of 373.3%, while the Ibovespa was up 71.9%. biggest difference being shown in EV/EBITDA. The exception being Dividend Yield where the forward
We also found that the longer the investment period, the more likely the portfolio is to beat both the metric outperformed by 105%.
Ibovespa and the CDI. The Dividend Yield Forward and the P/E Trailing indicator had an accumulated 5) No Pain, No Gain. While value outperformed in the long term, they do face periods of underperformance
return of 344.1% and 327.7% over the same period, respectively. The worst-performing metric was such as 2014-2015 where value metrics underperformed the Ibovespa by 10.9% and 2.7%. We believe that
Price/Book, with the worst risk-premium, due to growth stocks in the fourth quartile such as WEG, those periods are one of the reasons for value to work on the long term, since most institutional investors
MGLU and MELI. We also tested EV to EBIT but due to high correlation with EV EBITDA we kept the can’t afford the possibility of two/three consecutive years of losses. Performance On Different Business
last metric. The Long 1st Quartile / Short 4th strategy worked for all metrics except for Price to Book. Cycles: Accelerating GDP is value-best.
2) Our Spice - IQV – IBBA Quant Value Proprietary score: While EV/EBITDA showed the best 6) Avoiding Value Traps & Getting Exposed to Positive Externalities To reduce the Value traps
returns (439.4%), it has the downside of excluding the Financial sector. To improve upon it, we built a presence in the portfolios, we added a quality filter, which boosted the P/E Trailing portfolio’s return from
value score which is composed of the winsorized z-score for EV/EBITDA Trailing, Dividend Yield 308% to 327% alongside a reduced volatility. The first quartile of low P/E portfolios has an average dividend
Forward and P/E Trailing, with proportions of 50-25-25 except for the financials where we used 50% Div yield of 7.2% and a ROE of 21.3%.
Yield and 50% P/E. We further refine the portfolio removing the worst quintiles of P/E Forward and ROE. 7) Seven Value Stocks We Like. We further screened our first quartile long portfolio to find 7 stocks we
This allowed us to outperform all other metrics, while maintaining the financials and lower risk. like: Banco do Brasil, Petrobras, Vale, Vibra, JBS, Vivo and Prio.
Value Factors x Ibovespa – Accumulated Returns (2011-2024) P/E Trailing Quartiles Div.Yield X ROE (dispersion) IQV’s Sector Under and Over Allocation Compared to it’s Universe
Value Portfolios Analysis Comparison. Value investing Analysis. ComparativeTotal Performance (2011-2024)
Performance
Performance vs Ibov vs CDI Risk Measures
Diffusion
Portfolio BBA Value Score
Excess Excess Maximum
Accumulated Annualized Sharpe* Volatility Positive Negative
Return Return Drawdown
BBA Value Score
1st Quartile 439.4% 13.0% 349.6% 189.2% 0.46 22.1% -46.7% 53.5% 46.5% Div Yield Forward
2nd Quartile 142.8% 6.6% 53.0% -107.4% 0.07 22.2% -60.0% 51.4% 48.6%
3rd Quartile 149.3% 6.8% 59.5% -100.9% 0.26 22.3% -49.2% 52.9% 47.1%
4th Quartile 43.6% 2.7% -46.2% -206.6% -0.02 25.1% -56.4% 52.0% 48.0%
Price to Earnings Trailing Div Yield Trailing
1st Quartile 327.7% 11.1% 237.9% 77.5% 0.25 23.7% -57.6% 50.7% 49.3%
2nd Quartile 264.4% 9.8% 174.6% 14.2% 0.31 21.5% -54.9% 52.1% 47.9%
3rd Quartile 151.0% 6.9% 61.2% -99.2% 0.18 21.3% -47.2% 50.9% 49.1%
4th Quartile 78.8% 4.3% -11.0% -171.4% 0.06 23.0% -58.5% 51.3% 48.8% Price to Book Fwd
Price to Earnings Forward
1st Quartile 282.7% 10.2% 192.9% 32.5% 0.26 25.0% -54.4% 51.5% 48.5%
2nd Quartile 219.2% 8.8% 129.4% -31.0% 0.21 21.3% -48.2% 52.4% 47.6%
3rd Quartile 109.9% 5.5% 20.1% -140.3% 0.16 21.3% -50.3% 52.3% 47.7% Price to Book Trailing
4th Quartile 83.7% 4.5% -6.1% -166.5% 0.01 23.3% -63.7% 51.0% 49.1%
EV/EBITDA Trailing
1st Quartile 373.3% 11.9% 283.5% 123.1% 0.36 22.5% -52.4% 52.3% 47.7%
2nd Quartile 120.4% 5.9% 30.6% -129.8% 0.18 22.7% -45.7% 50.4% 49.6% EV to EBITDA Fwd
3rd Quartile 111.4% 5.6% 21.6% -138.8% 0.15 22.5% -45.3% 50.5% 49.5%
4th Quartile 43.7% 2.7% -46.1% -206.5% -0.07 24.2% -58.3% 50.5% 49.5%
Price to Book Trailing
1st Quartile 151.6% 6.9% 61.8% -98.6% 0.14 27.2% -70.7% 49.8% 50.2% EV to EBITDA Trailing
2nd Quartile 130.8% 6.2% 41.0% -119.4% 0.11 22.5% -44.9% 51.1% 48.9%
3rd Quartile 50.9% 3.0% -38.9% -199.3% 0.02 21.9% -52.3% 50.8% 49.3%
4th Quartile 272.7% 10.0% 182.9% 22.5% 0.22 21.0% -48.5% 51.1% 48.9%
Dividend Yield Forward Price to Earnings Fwd
1st Quartile 344.1% 11.4% 254.3% 93.9% 0.32 22.2% -53.6% 52.5% 47.5%
2nd Quartile 80.1% 4.4% -9.7% -170.1% 0.03 22.4% -46.6% 51.9% 48.1%
3rd Quartile 158.2% 7.1% 68.4% -92.0% 0.22 23.1% -51.9% 53.2% 46.8%
4th Quartile 53.5% 3.2% -36.3% -196.7% 0.05 26.2% -65.9% 51.2% 48.8% Price to Earnings Trailing
4th Quartile 3rd Quartile 2nd Quartile 1st Quartile 1/4 LongShort + CDI
4 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg
*Calculated as average of one year rolling sharpe
1) Does Value Work In Brazil? Good News: Value Outperforms in Brazil. A Long-only Analysis
Yes, Value Works Over Long-term Periods, with more moving windows of outperformance Price to Earnings Forward: With a total return of 282.7%, it was outperformed by its trailing
the longer the investment time. All 9 indicators outperformed the Ibovespa from January 2011 counterpart, but there were several time frames where it took the lead, indicating small differences
up to December 2024. in their capability to explain future returns.
EV/EBITDA Trailing: The best performing single factor metric, with a total return of 373.3% Price to Book Trailing: Was the worst-performing value metric with a total return of 151.6% since
since January 2011, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.36. And a hit-ratio of 52.3%. January 2011. It also had the worst risk premium, with the fourth quartile returning 272.7%.
Price to Earnings Trailing: Has had a total return of 327.7% since January 2011, with Sharpe IBBA Quant Value Score: The best-performing portfolio achieved a total return of 439.4% and a
ratio of 0.25 and a maximum drawdown of 57.6%. It’s hit-ratio was 50.66%, which is lower than Sharpe ratio of 0.46.
many other metrics, but it had a higher average positive return.
Accumulated Return Of 1st Quartile By Value Metric 1y Rolling Outperform Of First Quartile’s Portfolios.
700% 85%
600%
80%
500%
75%
400%
70%
300%
65%
200%
100% 60%
0% 55%
-100%
50%
BBA Div Yield Div Yield EV to EV to Price to Price to Price to Price to
Value Fwd Trailing EBITDA EBITDA Book Fwd Book Earnings Earnings
Score Fwd Trailing Trailing Fwd Trailing
Ibovespa EV EBITDA Trailing
Price to Earnings Trailing CDI >Ibov >Cdi
5
Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg
1) Long and Short: Enterprise Value To EBITDA Trailing’s Risk Premium Outperform The Market
And Other Value Metrics. Accumulated Return Of 1Q/4Q LongShort
The Long and Short computed the CDI return and the net position was rebalanced
to 0 alongside every portfolio rebalance. No leasing costs were considered. 800%
700%
The long and short position performed in Div Yield Forward, EV/EBITDA Trailing,
and our proprietary score. The best classic metric was the EV/EBITDA trailing, 600%
which had a return of 572.3% and lower drawdown compared to the analyzed
500%
portfolios.
400%
Price to book and Price to Earnings proved to be the worst Long and Short strategy
with material drawdown. This can be attributed to high-growth stocks in the fourth 300%
quartile, such as MELI, WEG and MGLU. 200%
Our proprietary metric had a total return of 633.9% with a volatility of 10.0%, 100%
pushing it’s Sharpe ratio to 0.85, being the best Long and Short performing metric.
0%
-100%
-200%
jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14 jan-15 jan-16 jan-17 jan-18 jan-19 jan-20 jan-21 jan-22 jan-23 jan-24
Ibovespa EV EBITDA Trailing Price to Earnings Trailing
CDI BBA Value Score Div Yield Forward
Price to Book Trailing
6
Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg
2) Our Spice - IQV – Itaú BBA Quant Value Proprietary Score And Study Method
The downside of the best performing classic metric, EV/EBITDA, is the exclusion of the Each portfolio was rebalanced every 30 days (monthly basis). We also backtested other
financial sector. Our proprietary value score managed to include them in the universe and rebalance periods but none outperformed. In this study, no liquidity impact or transaction costs
achieve higher returns while lowering the volatility, which pushed it’s Sharpe ratio up. This is were considered.
a blend index that used a weight of EV/EBITDA Trailing, Price/Earnings Trailing and
Dividend Yield Forward. For the Itaú BBA Score, we calculated the winsorized z-score for EV/EBITDA Trailing, Dividend
Yield Forward and P/E Trailing, and calculated the final score as:
All data collected was point-in-time information to avoid creating look-ahead bias and the
investable universe consisted of IBRA Index members at the time of rebalance, with a 1 𝐸𝑉 1 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 1
liquidity filter of BRL 2 million traded daily. Afterwards all companies with more than one ∗ 𝑍 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 + ∗ 𝑍 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 + ∗ 𝐷𝑖𝑣 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐹𝑤𝑑 𝑍 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒
ticker were filtered to retain only the ticker with the highest liquidity. 2 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 4 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 4
We further refine the portfolio by removing last quintile ROE to avoid value traps. We then
We filtered only companies that had the necessary relevant information available (metric, normalize our score to base 100 (0 the worst ranked to 100 the best ranked).
price and volume), which were then ranked and separated into quartiles.
Utilities, Financials and Consumer Discretionary were the most common sectors.
700% Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Financials 23.0% 19.4% 8.5% 13.4%
600% Utilities 22.5% 10.6% 8.5% 8.3%
Consumer Discretionary 17.8% 20.1% 20.2% 25.1%
500% Materials 7.8% 8.7% 6.4% 10.1%
Industrials 6.9% 14.9% 16.8% 12.9%
400%
Consumer Staples 6.2% 8.3% 12.7% 10.4%
300% Communication Services 5.9% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3%
Energy 5.0% 4.6% 3.5% 2.9%
200% Real Estate 2.8% 3.7% 7.0% 6.5%
Health Care 1.7% 4.7% 9.7% 5.8%
100% 0.6% 0.4% 3.9% 3.4%
Information Technology
0% Rolling Returns Win Ratio
-100% 100%
80%
60%
Ibovespa EV EBITDA Trailing Price to Earnings Trailing 40%
CDI BBA Value Score Div Yield Forward 20%
Price to Book Trailing 0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Acummulated
>Ibov >Cdi Total
7 Source: Itaú BA, Bloomberg
3) Sector & Stocks: Allocation & Attribution - The Most Frequent & Excess Return Generating Stocks
Most Recurring Stocks In The 1st Quartile Of Value Portfolios
Company Average* BBA Value Score EV/EBITDA Trailing P/B Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing Div Yield Forward
Overlap Of Stocks: The most prominent stocks across the portfolios
were BBAS3 at 75.4%, CSMG3 at 70.5%, ABCB4 at 68.3%, BRSR6 at BBAS3 75.4% 76.5% 0.0% 68.3% 98.7% 96.6% 90.8%
52.6% and PETR4 at 52.2%. Most trailing metrics showed overlapping CSMG3 70.5% 73.2% 77.4% 80.0% 77.4% 63.1% 51.0%
portfolios. The forward portfolios contain more diverse names due to ABCB4 68.3% 61.0% 0.0% 74.9% 89.9% 76.5% 83.8%
varying market expectations. BRSR6 52.6% 8.3% 0.0% 65.7% 94.6% 89.9% 41.0%
Concentration Of Returns: Approximately 30% of the total average PETR4 52.2% 42.2% 53.1% 62.0% 70.3% 55.6% 48.1%
return of the portfolios can be explained by the top 10 companies. The CPLE6 49.9% 17.2% 59.5% 73.7% 63.7% 64.5% 24.3%
three stocks with the best returns were ENAT3 with 5.1% (of the LIGT3 48.6% 48.6% 55.3% 51.5% 62.0% 32.2% 42.3%
accumulated return), PRIO3 with 3.6% and CSMG with 3.4%. BRAP4 46.2% 10.4% 30.1% 61.0% 79.1% 70.7% 69.0%
Value Traps: Many negative returns can be attributed to value trap
ENAT3 45.4% 44.4% 60.7% 51.1% 49.8% 26.8% 23.0%
stocks with deteriorating fundamentals and price momentum. This ITUB4 43.9% 69.1% 0.0% 0.0% 78.7% 69.1% 58.6%
raises the possibility of further refining the portfolios by incorporating
additional factors such as quality, price and earnings momentum. Which Stocks Most Explained The Total Return Of 1st Quartile Value Portfolios
Turnover: While there wasn’t a correlation between the turnover of the Company Average* BBA Value Score EV/EBITDA Trailing P/B Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing Div Yield Forward
portfolios of 1st quartiles, all trailing metrics have lower turnover than ENAT3 5.1% 4.0% 5.6% 5.4% 3.8% 3.2% 9.9%
their forward counterparts, which is expected since the first one is PRIO3 3.6% 1.2% 7.1% 1.4% 6.4% 3.3% 2.2%
subject to change only through daily prices and result releases, while CSMG3 3.4% 6.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 4.0%
the later depends on estimate revisions. The portfolio with the lowest
PETR4 3.1% 5.6% 4.0% 2.4% 4.7% 4.1% -1.2%
turnover was Price to Book trailing at just 6.6% per month.
ELET3 2.6% 4.6% 1.5% 3.7% 3.0% 1.8% 2.0%
Individual Stock Names: The total universe consisted of 361 stocks BBAS3 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 3.3% 3.8% 3.7% 3.0%
with varying over time. Among these, the portfolio with the highest ABCB4 2.4% 4.1% 0.0% 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 0.1%
number of individual names in the analyzed period was Dividend Yield
PCAR3 2.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% -0.3%
Forward Trailing with 209 names. The least diverse portfolio was Price
CPLE6 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.1%
to Book Forward with 169 names.
CMIG4 2.0% 0.2% 2.5% 1.8% 2.5% 2.7% 0.7%
Price To Book Leads To Growth? The fourth quartile of Price to MLAS3 -0.3% -2.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% -1.0% -3.5%
Book managed to outperform the first due to growth stocks such as NEXP3 -0.4% -0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -2.2%
MELI US, PAGS US, MGLU and WEGE.
TCSA3 -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% -1.3% -0.1% -3.9%
OIBR4 -0.4% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% -0.2% -0.1% -1.0%
BISA3 -0.5% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% -0.1% -3.8%
BHIA3 -0.5% -0.4% -0.7% -1.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.7%
DXCO3 -0.6% -1.7% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -3.1%
IFCM3 -0.6% 0.0% 0.0% -1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
HBOR3 -0.7% -0.6% 0.0% -0.1% -0.4% 0.1% -4.9%
*The average is calculated basen on all 9 metrics, except for financials, where the P/; P/E and Div Yield are used. VVEO3 -1.3% -0.4% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -0.1% -6.9%
8 Source: Itaú BA, Bloomberg
3) Sector & Stocks: Allocation & Attribution - The Most Frequent & Excess Return Generating
Sectors
Most Recurring Sectors In The 1st Quartile Of Value Portfolios?
Contribution To Return: Calculated as the percentage of the GICS Sector Average* BBA Value Score EV/EBITDA Trailing P/B Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing Div Yield Forward
total return from that portfolio that can be attributed to the Utilities 21.1% 22.5% 24.0% 20.9% 18.0% 22.2% 21.8%
sector.
Consumer Discretionary 20.4% 17.8% 14.2% 23.4% 23.2% 20.6% 23.6%
Overlap Of Sectors: Most value metrics converge in the same Financials 19.6% 23.0% 2.0% 10.8% 24.0% 24.7% 20.6%
sector, with a focus on consumer discretionary, utilities and Materials 11.7% 7.8% 15.9% 13.2% 11.6% 12.5% 5.5%
materials. The least purchased sectors were communication Industrials 7.1% 6.9% 11.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 6.8%
services, information technology and health care in absolute Consumer Staples 6.7% 6.2% 10.4% 5.9% 5.5% 3.8% 5.5%
terms. The most invested sector within portfolios was Utilities, Energy 6.1% 5.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.8% 4.5% 4.1%
with an average allocation of 21.1% followed closely by Communication Services 5.1% 5.9% 10.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.7% 6.3%
Consumer Discretionary at 20.4%, while the least bought Real Estate 4.0% 2.8% 3.0% 8.5% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0%
sectors were Information Technology and Health Care which Health Care 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 2.4%
add up to 2.2%. Notice that this is absolute allocation, not Information Technology 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3%
relative to the universe.
Financial Sector Limitations: One limitation of using the
metric EV/EBITDA is that it excludes most of the financial
sector and major Brazilian stocks such as ITUB4, BBDC4 and
BBAS3. This results in an underrepresentation of this sector, Which Sectors Most Explained The Total Return Of 1st Quartile Value Portfolios?
which account for 25.16% of the Ibovespa.
Return Drivers: As expected, in total return, consumer GICS Sector Average* BBA Value Score EV/EBITDA Trailing P/B Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing Div Yield Forward
discretionary, utilities and financials have a higher explained Consumer Discretionary 21.0% 20.3% 22.8% 23.4% 17.2% 18.5% 26.9%
return, while real estate, information and technology and health Utilities 18.6% 20.3% 17.1% 18.7% 16.6% 18.6% 17.7%
care having the lowest contributions to return. Financials 17.6% 22.4% 5.2% 10.8% 19.8% 19.1% 20.8%
Energy 11.9% 9.2% 17.6% 8.8% 16.6% 11.4% 7.5%
Materials 9.6% 6.2% 9.5% 13.4% 11.0% 10.5% 4.3%
Consumer Staples 8.0% 7.1% 8.9% 5.8% 10.4% 7.8% 5.3%
Industrials 7.6% 6.9% 7.7% 9.6% 4.3% 8.5% 8.2%
Communication Services 3.5% 4.1% 5.4% 3.0% 0.4% 1.6% 4.0%
Real Estate 2.1% 1.9% 1.4% 4.3% 1.2% 2.0% 1.6%
Information Technology 1.9% -0.2% 4.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.4%
Health Care 1.1% 2.0% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 2.3%
*The average is calculated basen on all 9 metrics, except for financials, where the P/; P/E and Div Yield are used.
Sector Exposure: Over time, there have been significant changes in Energy 2.1% 0.3% 1.7%
allocations, with sectors such as Communication Services, Real Estate Materials -2.3% 6.4% 6.1%
and Health Care experiencing long-periods of no allocation. As Information Technology -2.8% -6.3% -4.0%
expected, utilities, financials and consumer discretionary were the most
allocated sectors over time, but the latter had periods with small Real Estate -3.7% -6.9% -1.4%
allocations in 2017 and 2018 and has since had a lower participation. Health Care -4.1% -12.0% -7.6%
Consumer Staples -4.1% -7.9% -3.9%
Industrials -6.0% -11.2% -8.6%
Consumer Discretionary -7.3% -1.0% -4.2%
IQV’s First Quartile’s Portfolio’s Three Sectors With Highest And Shortest Net Exposure
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
5
Trailing To Forward Total Return Difference
0
Price to Earnings EV to EBITDA Dividend Yield Price to Book
200.0%
Trailing Forward
150.0%
Annualized Volatility
100.0%
50.0% 25%
0.0% 20%
-50.0%
15%
-100.0%
10%
-150.0%
-200.0% 5%
0%
Price to Book Dividend Yield Price to Earnings EV to EBITDA Price to Earnings EV to EBITDA Div Yield Price to Book
Trailing Forward
IBBA Value Score Performance Versus Ibovespa Performance By IBBA Value Score Quartiles Through Different Cycles
60%
40% Quartile Accelerating Decelerating Recession
20%
0%
First 26.7% 24.4% 3.3%
-20% Second 15.0% 11.6% 0.4%
-40%
Third 15.4% 8.7% 7.2%
-60%
-80% Fourth 3.5% -15.8% -5.4%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Drawdown: The lowest drawdowns were from our proprietary score, EV/EBITDA Rolling Volatility And Sharpe: The portfolios with the lowest volatility were in order:
Trailing and Dividend Yield Forward, with -46.7%, -52.4% and -53.6%, respectively. our proprietary “IBBA Value Score”, Dividend Yield Forward, Dividend Yield Trailing
Except for the Price to Book metrics, the highest maximum drawdown was from and EV/EBITDA Trailing while the highest were Price to Book Forward, Price to Book
Price to Earnings trailing at 57.6% indicating that there is not a significant difference trailing and Price to Earnings forward. This metrics alongside the total return,
between each portfolio. Price to Book trailing had the worst drawdown at -70.7%. resulted in the BBA Value Score and EV/EBITDA Trailing having the best 1y rolling
Returns Daily Dispersion: Itaú BBA Value Score had the best daily hit-ratio at average Sharpe ratio at 0.44 and 0.36 respectively.
53.5% positive daily returns. The worst performing metric was Price to Book Trailing
with a hit-ratio 49.7%.
28%
53.0% 27%
52.0% 26%
25%
51.0% 24% 23.4%
23% 22.1%
50.0%
EV to EV to Div Yield BBA Price to Div Yield Price to Price to Price to 22%
EBITDA EBITDA Fwd Value Earnings Trailing Book Fwd Book Earnings 21%
Trailing Fwd Score Forward Trailing Trailing 20%
Price to Price to Price to Price to Ibovespa EV to EV to Div Yield Div Yield BBA
Above Book Book Earnings Earnings EBITDA EBITDA Trailing Forward Value
Fwd Trailing Fwd Trailing Fwd Trailing Score
14 Source: Itaú BBA,
BA, Bloomberg
Bloomberg
6) Avoiding Value Traps & Getting Exposed to Positive Externalities:
Removing Low ROE stocks Boost Returns
Value Trap: As observed in the company’s return attribution, the biggest Portfolio Filtering: By tracking the number of stocks in the portfolio and their
performance detractors were value traps. To identify and remove these companies performance, we can see that there is almost no change in the results from January
without penalizing the true value companies, alongside the value ranking, we divided 2011 up to January 2020. However, after January 2020, we began filtering a larger
the universe into quintiles according to their ROE. Afterwards, if a company ranked in number of low-quality, cheap stocks, which contributed to the outperformance of the
the first value quartile but in the last quintile of ROE (last filling), it was removed from filtered portfolio.
the portfolio. This boosted the P/E Trailing return from 327% to 359.8% from January
Furthermore, this filter can be further improved by identifying other factors such as
2011 to December 2024.
price and earnings momentum.
Accumulated Performance Of 1st Quartile’s PE Trailing X Filtered PE Traiiling 1st Quartiles Amount Of Companies
40
500.0% 35
30
25
400.0% 20
15
10
300.0% 5
0
200.0%
0.0%
-100.0%
High Low
Value Roe
PE Trailing Quality Filter PE Trailing Ibovespa CDI
1Q EV/EBITDA
19.1 1.9 5.4 16.7 5.7 65.6
10 Trailing
2Q
8 3Q EV/EBITDA Fwd 29.0 2.1 6.0 10.7 9.1 63.4
4Q
6 P/B Trailing 23.6 0.7 16.6 3.0 6.4 53.7
4
P/B Fwd 32.8 0.8 16.5 4.0 6.5 55.6
2
Div Yield Trailing 13.9 2.3 8.9 18.7 7.6 70.2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 Div Yield Fwd 13.9 2.7 9.5 18.2 11.6 78.6
ROE
Our Top Value Picks: Within our current value portfolio, seven value stocks that we VBBR3: With an IQV of 93.5, Vibra has a high Dividend Yield Forward of 10.2%, low
favor are: Banco do Brasil, Petrobras, Vale, Vibra, JBS, Vivo and Prio. Price to Earnings at 2.1 but a EV to EBITDA Trailing of 5.0, which is high amongst the
BBAS3: The only bank in our selection, with an IQV of 100, has a ROE of 19.8%, a portfolio.
low Price to Earnings trailing of 4.2x, and a high Dividend Yield Forward of 10.4%. It JBSS3: JBS’s IQV score is 84.5, attributed to its low EV to EBITDA trailing of 4.2x and
was the most recurring company in the value portfolio and the sixth that contributed forward Dividend Yield of 8.2%.
the most to returns since 2011.
VIVT3: Vivo’s score is 81.5, pulled by na EV to EBITDA Trailing of 3.5 and a Dividend
PETR4: With a proprietary score (IQV) of 98.8, Petrobras is considered a value Yield Forward of 6.6%.
company based on all metrics, from it’s 5.7x Price to Earnings Trailing, it’s 3.4x EV to
EBITDA and notably the Dividend Yield Forward of 18.1%. It was the 5th most PRIO3: With an IQV of 79.2, PRIO has low Price to Earnings trailing, at 7.2, na EV to
recurring stock in value portfolios since 2011. EBITDA of 2.9. However it is a poor dividend payer, with a forward yield of only 0.2%.
VALE3: Has an IQV of 95.2, due to it’s low Price to Earnings of 4.8, EV to EBITDA of
3.3 and a Dividend Yield forward of 10.7%.
Price to Price to Price to Price to EV to EV to Dividend Dividend EPS EPS 2025 EBITDA EBITDA
1Y BBA IBBA Market Cap
Ticker Sector (GICS) Price Earnings Earnings Book Book EBITDA EBITDA Yield Yield ROE (%) TP Upside Growth 3M Growth 2025 3M
Return Score Rating (USD bn)
Trailing Forward Trailing Forward Trailing Forward Trailing Forward 2025 Revision 2025 Revision
BBAS3 Financials 25.31 -0.5% 100.0 4.2 3.8 0.4 0.8 n.a n.a 10.3 10.4 19.8 MP 31.0 22% 24.0 7% -1% n.a n.a.
PETR4 Energy 37.24 20.5% 98.8 5.7 5.3 1.2 0.8 3.4 3.1 16.3 18.1 21.7 OP 49.0 32% 85.8 -6% 6% 3% -5%
VALE3 Materials 54.2 -14.7% 95.2 4.8 4.5 1.1 1.0 3.3 3.3 9.9 10.7 24.2 OP 74.0 37% 40.7 3% -2% 5% 2%
VBBR3 Consumer Discretionary 17.25 -17.0% 93.5 2.1 3.2 0.9 1.0 5.0 4.0 9.1 10.2 53.9 OP 30.0 74% 3.2 21% -13% 10% 0%
JBSS3 Consumer Staples 34.26 52.7% 84.5 10.5 7.3 1.6 1.5 4.2 4.5 8.8 8.2 16.4 OP 51.0 49% 12.6 -21% 28% -5% 13%
VIVT3 Communication Services 48.93 1.7% 81.5 11.8 14.4 1.2 1.2 3.5 4.1 5.7 6.6 7.8 OP 61.0 25% 13.2 15% -2% 5% 2%
PRIO3 Energy 42.02 -6.7% 79.2 7.2 10.3 1.9 1.8 2.9 4.6 0.2 0.2 31.5 OP 70.0 67% 6.2 61% -23% 30% 0%
19
Itaú BBA Value Score – Return Analysis
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile -1.6% 28.9% 9.0% -11.8% -16.0% 50.0% 42.7% 20.5% 61.7% 12.8% -0.1% 7.1% 26.4% -17.3% 439.4% 13.0%
Second Quartile -7.0% 39.7% 2.3% -16.8% -10.8% 32.7% 31.0% 9.4% 53.5% -9.6% -12.3% -0.8% 34.7% -20.5% 142.8% 6.6%
Third Quartile -10.0% 44.7% -5.0% 4.5% -16.6% 29.6% 63.6% 13.3% 41.9% 12.1% -22.6% -15.9% 15.3% -19.5% 149.3% 6.8%
Fourth Quartile -24.5% 33.4% -10.0% -3.0% -5.9% 27.6% 23.8% 8.5% 76.6% 22.9% -12.4% -32.0% 21.1% -35.4% 43.6% 2.7%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 22.9% -4.5% 19.0% -8.8% -10.1% 22.4% 18.9% 11.9% -14.9% -10.1% 12.3% 39.1% 5.3% 18.1% 395.9% 12.3%
Long 2Q Short 3Q 3.0% -5.0% 7.3% -21.4% 5.8% 3.0% -32.6% -3.9% 11.6% -21.7% 10.3% 15.1% 19.4% -1.0% -6.4% -0.5%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
700%
Performance vs Ibov Vs Cdi Risk Measures Hit Ratio
600%
Quartile Excess Excess Maximum
500% Accumulated Annualized Sharpe Volatility Positive Negative
Return Return Drawdown
400% 1st Quartile 439.4% 13.0% 368.5% 189.2% 0.46 22.1% -49.8% 53.46% 46.54%
300%
2nd Quartile 142.8% 6.6% 71.9% -107.4% 0.07 22.2% -60.0% 51.43% 48.57%
200%
3rd Quartile 149.3% 6.8% 78.4% -100.9% 0.26 22.3% -49.2% 52.90% 47.10%
100%
4th Quartile 43.6% 2.7% -27.3% -206.6% -0.02 25.1% -56.4% 51.96% 48.04%
0% LongShort 395.9% 12.3% 325.0% 145.7% 0.39 13.7% -42.2% 52.10% 47.90%
-100% LongShort CDI 639.9% 15.6% 569.0% 389.7% 0.85 10.0% -20.9% 54.50% 45.50%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
20
20 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Itaú BBA Value Score – What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
BBAS3 76.5% SANB11 100.0% Financials 23.0% 19.4% 8.5% 13.4%
73.2% 59.8% Utilities 22.5% 10.6% 8.5% 8.3%
CSMG3 KLBN11
Consumer Discretionary 17.8% 20.1% 20.2% 25.1%
ITUB4 69.1% AMER3 57.0%
Materials 7.8% 8.7% 6.4% 10.1%
ENBR3 66.2% GOLL4 56.1%
Industrials 6.9% 14.9% 16.8% 12.9%
ITSA4 63.2% MGLU3 55.2%
Consumer Staples 6.2% 8.3% 12.7% 10.4%
ABCB4 61.0% MRFG3 43.9% 5.9% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3%
Communication Services
EGIE3 59.5% MELI US 43.6% Energy 5.0% 4.6% 3.5% 2.9%
BBDC4 52.4% RADL3 43.0% Real Estate 2.8% 3.7% 7.0% 6.5%
TRPL4 50.7% BEEF3 35.2% Health Care 1.7% 4.7% 9.7% 5.8%
48.6% 33.9% Information Technology 0.6% 0.4% 3.9% 3.4%
LIGT3 BRFS3
10 Most Discounted Stocks According To The IBBA Score Long And Short + CDI Performance
100.0 800%
90.0 700%
600%
80.0 500%
70.0 400%
300%
60.0 200%
50.0 100%
0%
40.0 -100%
30.0
BBAS3 PETR4 ABCB4 ANIM3 RECV3 BRAP4 VALE3 POSI3 VBBR3 PLPL3
140% 120%
120%
100% 100%
80%
60% 80%
40%
20% 60%
0%
-20%
40%
-40%
-60%
20%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
Ibovespa 4th Quartile 1st Quartile CDI
>Ibov >Cdi
Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg .
22
22
*% of time (months) that the accumulated portfolio underperformed the reference index since its inception
Itaú BBA Value Score - Key Graphs Takeaways
5.0 0%
4.0 -10%
3.0
-20%
2.0
1.0 -30%
0.0 -40%
-1.0
-50%
-2.0
-60%
-3.0
60% 100
50% 80
40% 60
30% 40
20% 20
10% 0
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Small Mid Large
23
23 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Earnings 12m Trailing – Return Analysis
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile -9.2% 30.2% -2.6% -15.0% -30.2% 52.9% 46.8% 26.3% 56.0% 13.6% 10.3% -7.9% 33.5% -8.2% 327.7% 11.1%
Second Quartile -2.5% 37.0% 5.0% -7.7% -8.3% 38.9% 32.6% 3.4% 47.7% -10.7% -5.8% 12.4% 38.7% -16.9% 264.4% 9.8%
Third Quartile -5.2% 45.6% -3.4% 2.5% -17.8% 28.1% 43.3% 11.0% 44.3% -0.4% -19.8% -1.5% 16.6% -17.3% 151.0% 6.9%
Fourth Quartile -14.1% 31.8% -7.8% -2.2% 1.3% 32.9% 45.8% 15.7% 67.5% 5.6% -22.7% -27.9% 22.4% -36.0% 78.8% 4.3%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 4.9% -1.6% 5.2% -12.7% -31.5% 20.0% 1.0% 10.6% -11.5% 8.0% 33.0% 20.1% 11.0% 27.8% 248.9% 9.5%
Long 2Q Short 3Q 2.7% -8.6% 8.5% -10.2% 9.4% 10.8% -10.7% -7.6% 3.4% -10.3% 14.0% 13.9% 22.1% 0.5% 113.4% 5.6%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
24
24 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Earnings 12m Trailing – What Did We Actually Buy?
Companies Allocation (As Percentage Of Presence In Portfolios) Sectors Allocation
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Financials 24.7% 14.3% 9.5% 3.5%
BBAS3 96.6% RADL3 95.8% 22.2% 16.2% 7.5% 4.7%
Utilities
BRSR6 89.9% TOTS3 78.6% 20.6% 22.7% 17.4% 21.6%
Consumer Discretionary
ABCB4 76.5% MULT3 69.1% Materials 12.5% 7.7% 4.9% 6.1%
ITSA4 71.2% MELI US 62.8% Industrials 5.2% 13.3% 16.9% 16.3%
BRAP4 70.7% WEGE3 53.5% Energy 4.5% 3.9% 4.7% 4.1%
TRPL4 69.8% MGLU3 47.3% Consumer Staples 3.8% 7.3% 15.8% 11.7%
ITUB4 69.1% LINX3 45.7% Communication Services 2.7% 6.0% 5.5% 1.4%
CPLE6 64.5% ODPV3 44.8% Real Estate 2.7% 3.7% 6.7% 9.6%
CSMG3 63.1% BRML3 40.2% Information Technology 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 7.2%
CMIG4 61.9% FLRY3 39.8% Health Care 0.3% 2.9% 8.2% 12.3%
First Quartile Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Company Conttribution Total Return Company Conttribution Total Return Financials 19.1% 18.7% 12.8% 7.3%
4.1% 12.6% 7.6% 7.3% Utilities 18.6% 13.1% 6.6% 8.6%
PETR4 MGLU3
BBAS3 3.7% 11.5% WEGE3 5.8% 5.6% Consumer Discretionary 18.6% 21.4% 20.7% 24.9%
PCAR3 3.3% 10.1% TOTS3 4.9% 4.7% Energy 11.4% 5.4% 6.6% 4.3%
PRIO3 3.3% 10.1% RADL3 4.8% 4.6% Materials 10.5% 7.5% 6.6% 6.9%
ENAT3 3.2% 10.0% MELI US 4.3% 4.2% Industrials 8.5% 18.6% 16.9% 15.0%
CMIG4 2.7% 8.3% GNDI3 3.6% 3.4% Consumer Staples 7.8% 4.8% 11.8% 3.1%
ABCB4 2.6% 8.2% LINX3 3.4% 3.2% Real Estate 2.0% 0.7% 1.9% 8.1%
CVCB3 2.6% 8.0% DXCO3 3.3% 3.2% Communication Services 1.6% 4.0% 4.1% 0.5%
VALE3 2.6% 7.9% STNE US 3.0% 2.8% Information Technology 1.3% 1.6% -0.1% 12.0%
GOAU4 2.5% 7.7% SQIA3 2.6% 2.5% Health Care 0.6% 2.7% 8.1% 7.9%
25
25 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Earnings 12m Trailing – Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Lowest Price To Earnings Trailing Long And Short + CDI Performance
10.0 600%
9.0 500%
8.0
400%
7.0
6.0
300%
5.0 200%
4.0 100%
3.0
0%
2.0
-100%
1.0
0.0
PAGS BRAP4 POSI3 ECOR3 CMIG4 MDNE3 JHSF3 BRSR6 BBAS3 SOJA3
140% 100%
90% 80%
40% 60%
-10% 40%
-60% 20%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
2.0 -20%
1.0
-30%
0.0
-40%
-1.0
-2.0 -50%
-3.0
-60%
60% 40
35
50% 30
40% 25
30% 20
15
20% 10
10% 5
0
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
27
27 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Earnings 12m Forward – Return Analysis
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile -15.3% 20.9% -7.4% -15.7% -24.5% 50.7% 39.4% 28.8% 58.1% 24.7% 1.9% 3.8% 30.1% -13.5% 282.7% 10.2%
Second Quartile -6.0% 40.5% -1.0% -13.5% -6.8% 32.8% 34.0% 8.4% 56.7% 0.4% -7.7% 3.2% 31.5% -20.3% 219.2% 8.8%
Third Quartile -1.6% 32.5% -5.0% 0.9% -13.4% 28.8% 47.4% 17.5% 50.3% -12.9% -8.9% -11.9% 19.4% -30.8% 109.9% 5.5%
Fourth Quartile -20.2% 26.9% -7.4% -1.7% -5.5% 44.1% 44.1% 10.1% 69.5% 18.2% -24.6% -36.8% 18.4% -18.3% 83.7% 4.5%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 4.9% -6.0% 0.0% -14.0% -19.0% 6.6% -4.7% 18.6% -11.5% 6.5% 26.5% 40.7% 11.8% 4.8% 199.0% 5.7%
Long 1Q Short 4Q -4.4% 8.0% 3.9% -14.4% 6.6% 4.0% -13.3% -9.0% 6.4% 13.2% 1.2% 15.1% 12.1% 10.4% 109.3% 3.3%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
Accumulated Performance Key Metrics
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
28
28 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Earnings 12m Forward – What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
98.7% 79.9% Financials 24.0% 14.3% 8.5% 4.3%
BBAS3 RADL3
94.6% 74.1% Consumer Discretionary 23.2% 20.3% 20.1% 23.0%
BRSR6 MELI US
89.9% 71.1% Utilities 18.0% 17.2% 9.8% 4.4%
ABCB4 TOTS3
Materials 11.6% 9.4% 5.8% 6.4%
ITSA4 86.7% MULT3 68.6%
Energy 6.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6%
BRAP4 79.1% ABEV3 65.7%
Consumer Staples 5.5% 8.3% 12.4% 13.3%
ITUB4 78.7% ODPV3 62.8%
Industrials 5.0% 13.8% 16.4% 14.9%
CSMG3 77.4% LREN3 62.7%
Real Estate 2.8% 3.7% 6.2% 8.8%
PETR4 70.3% AZZA3 56.5%
Communication Services 1.3% 4.3% 5.5% 2.8%
CMIG4 68.7% RAIL3 51.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1.4% 6.6%
Information Technology
MRVE3 66.1% BRFS3 47.6% 0.5% 2.5% 8.4% 11.5%
Health Care
29
29 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Earnings 12m Forward – Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Lowest Price To Earnings Forward Long And Short + CDI Performance
10.0 600%
9.0
500%
8.0
400%
7.0
6.0 300%
5.0 200%
4.0 100%
3.0
0%
2.0
-100%
1.0
0.0
MTRE3 POSI3 BRAP4 LAVV3 MDNE3 ANIM3 PETR4 EVEN3 PLPL3 BBAS3
170% 100%
120% 80%
70%
60%
20%
40%
-30%
20%
-80%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
0%
5.0
4.0 -10%
3.0 -20%
2.0
-30%
1.0
0.0 -40%
-1.0 -50%
-2.0
-60%
-3.0
-70%
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile -15.6% 21.7% -18.0% -21.0% -30.9% 86.7% 44.2% 30.1% 60.8% 14.2% 2.0% -11.1% 34.5% -30.1% 151.6% 6.9%
Second Quartile -13.7% 23.9% -3.8% -10.4% -13.6% 35.4% 32.8% 20.6% 79.1% 6.8% -21.3% -7.6% 28.2% -25.2% 130.8% 6.2%
Third Quartile -14.5% 29.5% -3.4% -6.1% -20.6% 30.5% 33.9% 10.4% 43.8% -11.1% -10.6% -17.2% 22.6% -15.6% 50.9% 3.0%
Fourth Quartile 4.2% 45.0% -6.0% 14.2% 2.0% 17.5% 49.5% 1.5% 60.1% 22.6% -21.1% -17.3% 15.3% -14.5% 272.7% 10.0%
Long 1Q Short 4Q -19.9% -23.3% -12.1% -35.2% -32.8% 69.1% -5.2% 28.6% 0.7% -8.4% 23.1% 6.1% 19.2% -15.7% -121.1% -5.9%
Long 2Q Short 3Q 0.8% -5.6% -0.3% -4.3% 7.0% 4.9% -1.1% 10.2% 35.2% 17.9% -10.6% 9.7% 5.5% -9.6% 79.9% 4.3%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
50% 4th Quartile 272.66% 10.00% 182.94% 31.70% 0.22 21.0% -46.3% 51.07% 48.93%
-50% LongShort -121.10% -5.92% -210.82% -362.06% -0.52 23.1% 0.0% 50.75% 49.25%
LongShort CDI 116.90% 5.77% 27.18% -124.06% -0.34 12.2% 0.0% 51.07% 48.93%
-150%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
32
32 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Book 12m Trailing – What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
EVEN3 84.2% ODPV3 92.5% Consumer Discretionary 23.40% 18.30% 23.10% 23.10%
80.0% 85.4% Utilities 20.90% 14.90% 12.30% 8.40%
CSMG3 ABEV3
74.9% 78.7% Materials 13.20% 10.40% 5.20% 2.90%
ABCB4 AZZA3
Financials 10.80% 17.90% 9.60% 10.00%
CPLE6 73.7% RENT3 76.6%
Real Estate 8.50% 4.20% 4.20% 0.50%
BRPR3 69.5% LREN3 73.7%
Energy 6.80% 5.60% 4.40% 2.80%
BBAS3 68.3% WEGE3 73.2%
Consumer Staples 5.90% 8.40% 14.90% 12.70%
USIM5 67.0% EGIE3 69.0%
Industrials 5.00% 10.10% 15.70% 19.60%
BRSR6 65.7% TOTS3 67.3% 3.10% 5.90% 1.50% 4.30%
Communication Services
ELET3 62.3% MELI 61.6% Health Care 1.50% 3.60% 7.10% 10.90%
PETR4 62.0% MPLU3 57.0% Information Technology 0.80% 0.90% 2.00% 4.80%
33
33 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Book 12m Trailing– Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Lowest Price To Book Trailing Long And Short + CDI Performance
1.0 300%
0.9
0.8 200%
0.7 100%
0.6
0%
0.5
0.4 -100%
0.3 -200%
0.2
-300%
0.1
0.0
BHIA3 DASA3 COGN3 ANIM3 MTRE3 PCAR3 QUAL3 HAPV3 BRSR6 ONCO3
240%
100%
190%
140% 80%
90% 60%
40%
40%
-10%
-60% 20%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
Ibovespa 4th Quartile 1st Quartile CDI
>Ibov >Cdi
6.0
0%
5.0
4.0 -10%
3.0 -20%
2.0 -30%
1.0
-40%
0.0
-1.0 -50%
-2.0 -60%
-3.0 -70%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile Ibovespa 1st Quartile
70%
5
60%
4
50%
40% 3
30% 2
20% 1
10%
0
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile -18.9% 16.2% -22.7% -22.9% -26.4% 86.5% 44.9% 34.9% 66.6% 13.4% -0.3% -14.3% 41.1% -35.4% 121.9% 5.9%
Second Quartile -12.4% 29.9% -1.8% -7.5% -19.1% 29.0% 29.3% 19.4% 66.1% 11.3% -15.0% -7.5% 17.7% -21.9% 122.5% 6.0%
Third Quartile -13.6% 35.9% -6.3% -9.6% -15.4% 34.2% 37.0% 11.8% 50.2% -16.2% -4.1% -12.4% 22.0% -21.4% 75.5% 4.2%
Fourth Quartile -3.3% 44.5% -11.9% 15.7% 1.0% 23.3% 52.5% 3.0% 64.9% 13.8% -23.7% -21.1% 18.3% -14.8% 217.4% 8.7%
Long 1Q Short 4Q -15.6% -28.3% -10.8% -38.6% -27.4% 63.2% -7.7% 31.8% 1.7% -0.3% 23.4% 6.8% 22.9% -20.7% -95.5% -5.0%
Long 2Q Short 3Q 1.2% -6.1% 4.5% 2.2% -3.7% -5.2% -7.7% 7.6% 16.0% 27.5% -11.0% 4.9% -4.3% -0.6% 47.0% 2.8%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
250% 1st Quartile 121.90% 5.95% 32.30% -128.30% 0.17 27.6% -69.2% 50.43% 49.57%
2nd Quartile 122.48% 5.97% 32.88% -127.72% 0.04 22.5% -44.8% 50.87% 49.13%
150%
3rd Quartile 75.49% 4.16% -14.11% -174.71% 0.09 21.6% -52.5% 51.10% 48.90%
50% 4th Quartile 217.35% 8.73% 127.75% -32.85% 0.19 21.1% -48.2% 51.28% 48.72%
-50% LongShort -95.46% -4.98% -185.06% -345.66% -0.54 21.1% 0.0% 51.10% 48.90%
LongShort CDI 142.20% 6.62% 52.60% -108.00% -0.28 19.1% 0.0% 50.87% 49.13%
-150%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
36
36 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Book 12m Forward– What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Consumer Discretionary 24.2% 18.6% 22.7% 23.3%
EVEN3 85.9% ODPV3 100.0%
Utilities 20.0% 15.4% 12.2% 8.5%
CSMG3 85.4% RENT3 83.3% Materials 13.5% 9.7% 5.7% 2.9%
ABCB4 84.5% ABEV3 82.1% Financials 11.7% 16.6% 8.4% 9.4%
75.4% 82.0% Real Estate 8.5% 5.9% 5.6% 1.0%
BRPR3 WEGE3
Energy 7.1% 5.3% 4.3% 2.7%
USIM5 72.9% EGIE3 81.2%
Consumer Staples 5.8% 8.0% 15.4% 12.4%
CPLE6 72.0% AZZA3 78.3% Industrials 3.9% 10.8% 15.0% 19.4%
BBAS3 70.7% LREN3 77.9% Communication Services 2.9% 5.6% 2.0% 3.9%
Health Care 1.4% 3.4% 7.3% 11.4%
BRSR6 68.6% TOTS3 76.1%
Information Technology 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 5.3%
GGBR4 67.0% WEGE3 73.2%
First Quartile Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Company Conttribution Total Return Company Conttribution Total Return Consumer Discretionary 20.7% 16.1% 25.8% 33.6%
ENAT3 5.2% 7.8% MGLU3 7.0% 15.9% Utilities 19.9% 11.6% 13.0% 5.9%
GGBR4 4.1% 6.1% WEGE3 6.8% 15.5% Financials 12.3% 12.6% 12.3% 10.7%
EVEN3 3.9% 5.7% MELI US 5.5% 12.5% Materials 12.1% 13.5% 4.5% 7.6%
ELET3 3.5% 5.2% RENT3 5.3% 12.0% Energy 8.8% 11.9% 4.5% -1.6%
BBAS3 3.3% 5.0% AZZA3 4.2% 9.7% Industrials 8.1% 14.5% 15.6% 14.6%
CEAB3 3.3% 5.0% BRKM5 4.1% 9.3% Consumer Staples 7.5% 10.3% 9.9% 13.5%
BRAP4 2.9% 4.3% BHIA3 4.0% 9.1% Real Estate 5.3% 2.5% 4.2% 0.6%
CSMG3 2.8% 4.2% MRFG3 3.4% 7.8% Communication Services 3.8% 4.8% -1.8% 0.6%
EMBR3 2.8% 4.2% RADL3 3.3% 7.6% Information Technology 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 7.5%
CPLE6 2.8% 4.1% GNDI3 3.2% 7.3% Health Care 0.2% 0.7% 10.9% 7.0%
37
37 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Price To Book 12m Forward– Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Lowest Price To Book Forward Long And Short + CDI Performance
300%
1.0 250%
0.9 200%
0.8 150%
0.7 100%
0.6 50%
0.5 0%
0.4 -50%
-100%
0.3
-150%
0.2
-200%
0.1
0.0
VVEO3 COGN3 PCAR3 BHIA3 DASA3 MYPK3 QUAL3 POSI3 MLAS3 BRSR6
220%
100%
170%
120% 80%
70% 60%
20%
40%
-30%
-80% 20%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated*
Ibovespa 4th Quartile 1st Quartile CDI
>Ibov >Cdi
6.0 0%
5.0
-10%
4.0
3.0 -20%
2.0
-30%
1.0
0.0 -40%
-1.0
-2.0 -50%
-3.0 -60%
-70%
5
70%
5
60% 4
50% 4
3
40% 3
30% 2
2
20% 1
10% 1
0
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile -5.8% 26.0% 2.0% -13.6% -29.7% 46.6% 51.2% 31.0% 62.4% 20.8% 10.2% 1.3% 28.8% -21.4% 373.3% 11.9%
Second Quartile -5.1% 45.7% -0.6% -24.4% -8.7% 24.6% 36.6% 3.8% 55.9% 20.8% -13.7% -5.0% 19.8% -28.9% 120.4% 5.9%
Third Quartile -20.9% 46.3% -1.2% -3.6% 1.4% 19.8% 60.8% 0.5% 35.9% 0.0% -17.1% -17.5% 35.2% -22.3% 111.4% 5.6%
Fourth Quartile -17.5% 44.4% -13.0% 9.6% -14.6% 33.3% 24.5% 5.1% 72.1% 3.8% -25.8% -22.2% 9.6% -24.8% 43.7% 2.7%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 11.6% -18.4% 15.0% -23.2% -15.0% 13.3% 26.8% 25.8% -9.7% 17.0% 36.1% 23.5% 19.2% 3.3% 329.6% 11.1%
Long 2Q Short 3Q 15.8% -0.6% 0.6% -20.8% -10.1% 4.8% -24.2% 3.3% 20.0% 20.8% 3.4% 12.5% -15.4% -6.6% 8.9% 0.6%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
200% 2nd Quartile 120.37% 5.89% 30.77% -129.83% 0.18 22.7% -46.4% 50.40% 49.60%
3rd Quartile 111.44% 5.58% 21.84% -138.76% 0.15 22.5% -44.2% 50.54% 49.46%
100%
4th Quartile 43.71% 2.66% -45.89% -206.49% -0.07 24.2% -54.4% 50.48% 49.52%
0% LongShort 329.62% 11.14% 240.02% 79.42% 0.53 17.3% -33.1% 50.54% 49.46%
-100% LongShort + CDI 572.70% 14.81% 483.10% 322.50% 0.61 11.2% -23.3% 55.40% 49.60%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
40
40 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
EV/EBITDA 12m Trailing – What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
77.4% 82.0% Utilities 24.0% 19.1% 14.0% 3.9%
CSMG3 WEGE3
Materials 15.9% 12.7% 5.8% 2.7%
BRKM5 63.7% RADL3 75.3%
Consumer Discretionary 14.0% 24.4% 25.4% 29.3%
VIVT4 63.2% HYPE3 63.1%
Industrials 11.2% 18.1% 16.0% 11.9%
ENAT3 60.7% B3SA3 62.7% 10.4% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9%
Communication Services
SMTO3 60.6% AZZA3 57.3% Consumer Staples 10.4% 10.3% 10.9% 11.3%
CPLE6 59.5% ODPV3 56.5% Energy 7.2% 4.1% 4.4% 2.5%
55.3% 48.1% Real Estate 3.0% 4.1% 7.0% 9.4%
LIGT3 MULT3
Financials 2.0% 2.1% 4.5% 8.3%
BEEF3 54.4% EZTC3 45.6%
Health Care 1.0% 3.2% 9.1% 11.7%
MYPK3 53.9% MELI US 45.2%
Information Technology 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 7.1%
PETR4 53.1% MGLU3 43.5%
First Quartile Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Company Conttribution Total Return Company Conttribution Total Return Consumer Discretionary 22.2% 25.2% 19.0% 36.7%
PRIO3 7.1% 32.1% WEGE3 8.8% 3.0% Utilities 17.7% 17.9% 17.3% 0.2%
ENAT3 5.6% 25.2% MELI US 6.5% 2.2% Energy 17.6% 10.0% 1.8% -1.4%
POSI3 4.1% 18.7% MGLU3 6.2% 2.1% Materials 9.5% 16.9% 7.8% 1.5%
PETR4 4.0% 17.8% AMER3 5.0% 1.7% Consumer Staples 8.9% 8.9% 7.5% 8.2%
CEAB3 3.6% 16.4% RADL3 4.6% 1.5% Industrials 7.7% 12.0% 27.8% 16.1%
CSMG3 3.4% 15.5% PAGS US 4.3% 1.4% Communication Services 5.4% 3.2% 2.2% 1.3%
VALE3 3.2% 14.3% BHIA3 4.0% 1.3% Financials 5.2% 0.2% 5.8% 10.7%
PCAR3 2.9% 12.9% LOGG3 3.6% 1.2% Information Technology 4.1% -0.5% 2.6% 9.8%
SMTO3 2.6% 11.9% GNDI3 3.5% 1.2% Real Estate 1.4% 1.9% -1.2% 7.5%
CVCB3 2.6% 11.7% GOLL4 3.5% 1.2% Health Care 0.3% 4.3% 9.3% 9.5%
41
41 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
EV/EBITDA 12m Trailing – Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Lowest Enterprise Value To EBITDA Trailing Long And Short + CDI Performance
10 700%
9 600%
8 500%
7 400%
6 300%
5
200%
4
100%
3
0%
2
1
-100%
0
PAGS US QUAL3 STNE US CEAB3 POSI3 LJQQ3 JALL3 PETR4 GUAR3 CMIN3
170% 100%
120% 80%
70%
60%
20%
40%
-30%
20%
-80%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
5.0 0%
4.0
-10%
3.0
-20%
2.0
-30%
1.0
0.0 -40%
-1.0 -50%
-2.0 -60%
-3.0 -70%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile Ibovespa 1st Quartile
60%
20
50%
15
40%
30% 10
20%
5
10%
0% 0
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
43
43 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
EV/EBITDA 12m Forward – Return Analysis
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Acummulated Annualized
First Quartile -2.5% 23.0% 0.8% -17.2% -18.7% 52.2% 37.3% 19.9% 60.7% 11.1% 18.3% 6.4% 19.8% -38.5% 237.9% 9.2%
Second Quartile -17.8% 39.3% -7.7% -19.4% -20.3% 35.2% 45.0% 16.3% 58.4% 2.5% -19.7% -21.7% 40.4% -21.8% 73.6% 4.1%
Third Quartile -16.3% 46.6% -12.9% -8.0% 0.1% 35.2% 39.9% 12.3% 43.5% -0.6% -17.8% -16.9% 27.5% -23.8% 97.7% 5.1%
Fourth Quartile -9.3% 33.9% -25.4% 9.5% -19.5% 48.4% 43.1% 2.8% 51.3% 20.1% -26.5% -21.9% 10.9% -22.8% 55.7% 3.3%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 6.8% -10.9% 26.2% -26.7% 0.8% 3.8% -5.8% 17.2% 9.4% -9.0% 44.8% 28.4% 8.9% -15.6% 182.2% 7.8%
Long 2Q Short 3Q -1.5% -7.3% 5.2% -11.4% -20.4% 0.0% 5.1% 4.0% 14.9% 3.2% -1.9% -4.8% 12.9% 2.0% -24.1% -1.6%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
500%
Performance vs Ibov Vs Cdi Risk Measures Performance Diffusion
400%
Quartile Excess Excess Maximum
Acummulated Annualized Sharpe Volatility Positive Negative
300% Return Return Drawdown
1st Quartile 237.87% 9.22% 148.15% -3.09% 0.28 23.4% -51.4% 52.27% 47.73%
200%
2nd Quartile 73.61% 4.08% -16.11% -167.35% 0.09 23.7% -50.1% 49.10% 50.90%
100%
3rd Quartile 97.72% 5.06% 8.00% -143.24% 0.06 22.4% -49.1% 50.48% 49.52%
0% 4th Quartile 55.67% 3.26% -34.05% -185.29% -0.05 23.9% -53.0% 49.40% 50.60%
LongShort 182.19% 7.81% 92.47% -58.77% 0.14 16.9% -39.2% 50.48% 49.52%
-100%
LongShort + CDI 424.30% 12.76% 334.58% 183.34% 0.46 11.9% -31.6% 49.10% 50.90%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
44
44 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
EV/EBITDA 12m Forward – What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Utilities 18.4% 19.5% 16.9% 5.8%
CSMG3 88.7% RADL3 88.7%
Consumer Discretionary 17.1% 28.8% 24.9% 27.7%
TIMS3 74.0% WEGE3 75.3% 14.5% 12.4% 8.3% 2.3%
Materials
SMTO3 73.6% B3SA3 69.0% Consumer Staples 12.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6%
BRKM5 72.5% HYPE3 67.3% Industrials 12.5% 15.8% 14.3% 9.4%
Energy 9.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2.8%
ENAT3 67.4% MULT3 64.8%
Communication Services 9.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.2%
CPLE6 64.1% ODPV3 63.7%
Real Estate 2.1% 2.7% 6.5% 13.3%
MRFG3 63.7% TOTS3 58.5% Financials 1.8% 1.6% 3.5% 7.9%
BEEF3 62.0% ABEV3 50.3% Health Care 1.3% 3.6% 8.9% 11.0%
60.7% 46.5% Information Technology 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 6.9%
VIVT4 IGTA3
PETR4 56.0% LINX3 44.4%
First Quartile Fourth Quaritle Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Company Conttribution Total Return Company Conttribution Total Return Consumer Discretionary 21.7% 27.8% 23.6% 33.5%
PRIO3 8.1% 23.9% MELI US 7.8% 4.7% Energy 20.5% 2.3% 1.8% -3.4%
5.9% 17.3% 6.4% 3.9% Utilities 16.2% 18.5% 17.3% 3.9%
ENAT3 WEGE3
Consumer Staples 13.4% 9.8% 10.0% 5.9%
SMTO3 4.0% 11.7% RADL3 4.6% 2.8%
Materials 9.6% 14.2% 12.4% 4.8%
CVCB3 3.6% 10.7% MGLU3 4.5% 2.7%
Communication Services 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 0.7%
PETR4 3.4% 10.2% PAGS US 4.2% 2.6%
Industrials 4.1% 18.9% 21.6% 10.4%
CSMG3 3.2% 9.4% AZZA3 4.1% 2.5%
Financials 3.8% 1.7% 2.8% 12.9%
VALE3 3.0% 8.8% BHIA3 4.0% 2.4% 3.3% -0.6% 2.1% 8.2%
Information Technology
BRKM5 3.0% 8.7% RENT3 4.0% 2.4% Real Estate 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% 12.9%
CEAB3 2.8% 8.4% B3SA3 3.7% 2.2% Health Care 0.5% 3.7% 4.5% 10.1%
TUPY3 2.7% 7.8% GNDI3 3.2% 1.9%
45
45 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
EV/EBITDA 12m Forward – Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Lowest Enterprise Value to EBITDA Forward Long And Short + CDI Performance
600%
10.0
9.0 500%
8.0 400%
7.0
300%
6.0
5.0 200%
4.0 100%
3.0
0%
2.0
1.0 -100%
0.0
PAGS US STNE US CVCB3 MDNE3 QUAL3 CEAB3 BRAV3 JALL3 RECV3 POSI3
170% 100%
90%
120%
80%
70% 70%
60%
20% 50%
-30% 40%
30%
-80% 20%
10%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
Ibovespa 4th Quartile 1st Quartile CDI
>Ibov >Cdi
5.0
0%
4.0
-10%
3.0
2.0 -20%
1.0 -30%
0.0 -40%
-1.0
-50%
-2.0
-60%
-3.0
-70%
20
70%
60% 15
50%
40% 10
30% 5
20%
10% 0
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Small Mid Large 4th Quartile 3rd Quartile 2nd Quartile 1st Quartile
47
47 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Dividend Yield 12m Trailing – Return Analysis
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Accumulated Annualized
First Quartile 5.6% 12.2% -1.5% -20.3% -26.9% 63.5% 42.1% 13.1% 40.6% -5.3% 0.0% 9.7% 38.7% -6.4% 239.2% 9.3%
Second Quartile -13.5% 29.2% -4.4% -7.1% -4.7% 39.3% 42.5% 10.2% 43.6% 3.8% -4.8% -6.5% 25.6% -22.9% 165.9% 7.3%
Third Quartile -9.8% 37.8% -2.5% -10.1% -5.6% 42.9% 38.9% 5.1% 77.2% 3.6% -13.2% -18.1% 7.1% -31.8% 104.5% 5.3%
Fourth Quartile -20.0% 32.1% -28.1% -0.3% -23.6% 46.3% 46.0% 25.8% 74.9% 30.6% -21.8% -34.4% 30.4% -39.4% 43.7% 2.7%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 25.6% -19.9% 26.6% -20.0% -3.3% 17.2% -3.9% -12.7% -34.3% -35.8% 21.8% 44.1% 8.3% 33.1% 195.4% 8.2%
Long 2Q Short 3Q -3.7% -8.6% -1.9% 3.1% 0.9% -3.6% 3.6% 5.1% -33.6% 0.2% 8.4% 11.6% 18.5% 8.9% 61.3% 3.5%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
Accumulated Performance Key Metrics
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI
48
48 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Dividend Yield 12m Trailing – What Did We Actually Buy?
First Quartile Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Company Conttribution Total Return Company Conttribution Total Return Utilities 21.8% 11.5% 9.5% 7.2%
Consumer Discretionary 18.1% 24.6% 15.8% 34.6%
PETR4 4.2% 19.2% MELI US 6.0% 0.9%
Financials 17.8% 17.6% 7.8% 9.8%
BBAS3 3.3% 14.9% MGLU3 5.7% 0.8%
Industrials 11.3% 7.6% 16.1% 16.1%
CSMG3 3.2% 14.9% GOLL4 5.3% 0.8%
Materials 9.9% 13.6% 11.0% 8.7%
ABCB4 2.8% 12.9% AZUL4 3.7% 0.5%
Energy 6.7% 3.8% 6.7% 2.0%
ENAT3 2.7% 12.2% PAGS US 2.9% 0.4% 6.2% 9.2% 11.8% 8.7%
Consumer Staples
CMIG4 2.5% 11.6% ENEV3 2.7% 0.4% Communication Services 3.2% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4%
WIZC3 2.5% 11.4% EMBR3 2.7% 0.4% Information Technology 2.7% 2.4% 6.9% 2.9%
LEVE3 2.4% 11.1% TEND3 2.7% 0.4% Health Care 2.4% 1.3% 5.3% 4.3%
LIGT3 2.2% 10.3% USIM5 2.4% 0.4% Real Estate -0.2% 4.2% 6.4% 4.4%
DIRR3 2.0% 8.9% XP US 2.0% 0.3%
49
49 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Dividend Yield 12m Trailing – Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Highest Dividend Yield Trailing Long And Short + CDI Performance
25.0 500.00%
400.00%
20.0
300.00%
15.0
200.00%
10.0 100.00%
5.0 0.00%
0.0 -100.00%
LAVV3 STBP3 VULC3 PETR4 CMIN3 BRAP4 ODPV3 MTRE3 DIRR3 LOGG3
170% 100%
120%
80%
70%
20% 60%
-30% 40%
-80%
20%
0%
Ibovespa 4th Quartile 1st Quartile CDI 3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
>Ibov >Cdi
6.0 0%
5.0 -10%
4.0
3.0 -20%
2.0 -30%
1.0 -40%
0.0
-50%
-1.0
-2.0 -60%
-3.0 -70%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile Ibovespa 1st Quartile
60%
10%
50%
8%
40%
30% 6%
20% 4%
10% 2%
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile 0%
51
51 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Dividend Yield 12m Forward – Return Analysis
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Acummulated Annualized
First Quartile 8.5% 34.2% -2.8% -14.7% -28.4% 57.3% 32.9% 16.9% 57.8% 3.6% -2.0% 8.5% 32.0% -8.2% 344.1% 11.4%
Second Quartile -12.7% 24.1% -12.7% -14.2% -5.9% 30.1% 34.4% 11.1% 46.6% -2.8% -7.2% -9.2% 29.8% -22.1% 80.1% 4.4%
Third Quartile -12.5% 51.3% -4.2% -3.2% -12.7% 34.6% 38.3% 10.1% 81.5% -5.5% -8.3% -13.6% 19.0% -27.4% 158.2% 7.1%
Fourth Quartile -26.3% 18.3% -32.5% -1.2% -7.2% 53.7% 67.5% 24.9% 79.5% 28.0% -28.7% -40.8% 19.8% -23.9% 53.5% 3.2%
Long 1Q Short 4Q 34.8% 15.8% 29.7% -13.5% -21.3% 3.6% -34.6% -8.1% -21.8% -24.4% 26.6% 49.3% 12.2% 15.7% 290.7% 10.4%
Long 2Q Short 3Q -0.2% -27.2% -8.5% -11.0% 6.8% -4.6% -3.9% 1.0% -34.9% 2.7% 1.1% 4.4% 10.8% 5.3% -78.1% -4.3%
Ibovespa -18.9% 7.4% -15.5% -2.9% -13.3% 38.9% 26.9% 15.0% 31.6% 2.9% -11.9% 4.7% 22.3% -10.4% 71.9% 4.0%
CDI 11.5% 8.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.2% 14.0% 10.0% 6.4% 6.0% 2.8% 4.4% 12.4% 13.0% 10.9% 250.2% 9.5%
GDP -3.6% -2.1% 1.1% -2.5% -4.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.5% -0.6% -4.5% 8.3% -2.1% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.04%
150% 2nd Quartile 105.61% 5.36% 15.89% -135.35% 0.03 22.4% -46.6% 51.94% 48.06%
50% 3rd Quartile 193.78% 8.12% 104.06% -47.18% 0.22 23.1% -51.9% 53.20% 46.80%
4th Quartile 65.84% 3.73% -23.88% -175.12% 0.05 26.2% -65.9% 51.17% 48.83%
-50%
LongShort 331.79% 11.18% 242.07% 90.83% 0.29 15.8% -51.4% 51.75% 48.25%
-150%
LongShort CDI 567.71% 14.75% 477.99% 326.75% 0.60 10.8% -22.8% 53.83% 46.17%
Ibovespa 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q CDI 52
52 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Dividend Yield 12m Forward – What Did We Actually Buy?
Company First Quartile Company Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Consumer Discretionary 23.6% 21.6% 25.2% 28.0%
EGIE3 84.2% RADL3 89.9%
Utilities 21.8% 13.7% 5.6% 5.4%
CPFE3 78.6% AMER3 78.3% 20.6% 21.0% 4.8% 2.7%
Financials
ABCB4 74.0% MELI Equity 74.6% Industrials 6.8% 10.5% 15.1% 16.5%
69.0% 62.8% Communication Services 6.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6%
LEVE3 GOLL4
Materials 5.5% 6.2% 10.0% 8.3%
TRPL4 67.9% MGLU3 62.7%
Consumer Staples 5.5% 7.9% 9.4% 15.0%
BBAS3 67.8% EMBR3 58.5% Energy 4.1% 5.2% 5.3% 4.9%
67.8% 54.8% Real Estate 3.0% 3.5% 12.3% 5.6%
ITUB4 ENEV3
Health Care 2.4% 7.1% 6.2% 8.0%
ITSA4 57.3% MRFG3 51.4%
Information Technology 0.3% 1.3% 4.5% 4.1%
ENBR3 55.7% BRFS3 46.1%
First Quartile Fourth Quartile Sector 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Company Conttribution Total Return Company Conttribution Total Return Consumer Discretionary 26.9% 19.6% 30.9% 23.9%
PETR4 6.8% 31.1% MELI US 34.2% 5.0% Financials 20.8% 23.4% 5.0% 8.7%
LEVE3 5.6% 25.6% ENEV3 24.3% 3.6% Utilities 17.7% 15.0% 4.6% 8.3%
ELET3 4.8% 22.1% STNE US 22.4% 3.3% Industrials 8.2% 16.6% 17.8% 24.4%
SLCE3 4.1% 18.8% MGLU3 20.9% 3.1% Energy 7.5% 7.8% 3.7% 0.5%
3.9% 18.0% 20.2% 3.0% Consumer Staples 5.3% 9.1% 8.0% 8.8%
GOAU4 EMBR3
3.9% 17.9% 19.1% 2.8% Materials 4.3% 3.2% 14.5% 6.7%
TEND3 RADL3
3.8% 17.4% 16.9% 2.5% Communication Services 4.0% 2.3% 0.4% 1.1%
ABCB4 AMBP3
Health Care 2.3% 4.8% 2.4% 6.3%
WIZC3 3.7% 17.0% STBP3 14.4% 2.1%
Real Estate 1.6% -1.6% 10.7% 5.5%
DIRR3 3.7% 16.8% EVEN3 13.5% 2.0%
Information Technology 1.4% -0.3% 2.0% 5.9%
TRPL4 3.4% 15.4% HAPV3 13.2% 1.9%
53
53 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
Dividend Yield 12m Forward – Key Graphs Takeaways
10 Stocks With Highest Dividend Yield Forward Long And Short + CDI Performance
15.0 600%
13.0 500%
11.0 400%
9.0 300%
7.0 200%
100%
5.0
0%
3.0
-100%
1.0
-1.0 PLPL3 RECV3 PETR4 LEVE3 DIRR3 EVEN3 BBAS3 EZTC3 TIMS3 MDNE3
170% 100%
120% 80%
70%
60%
20%
40%
-30%
20%
-80%
0%
3M 12M 24M 36M 60M Accumulated *
>Ibov >Cdi
Ibovespa 4th Quartile 1st Quartile CDI
6.0 0%
5.0 -10%
4.0
-20%
3.0
2.0 -30%
1.0 -40%
0.0 -50%
-1.0
-60%
-2.0
-3.0 -70%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile Ibovespa 1st Quartile
60% 10%
50% 8%
40% 6%
4%
30%
2%
20%
0%
10%
0%
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Small Mid Large
55
55 Source: Itaú BBA, Bloomberg.
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56 Source: Itaú BBA