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Forecasting Ex

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18 views8 pages

Forecasting Ex

Uploaded by

rsadman36
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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8 period moving average 3 period moving average

Week Sales Forecast Week Sales Forecast


1 30 1 30
2 35 2 35
3 40 3 40
4 42 4 42 35
5 56 5 56 39
6 84 6 84 46
7 65 7 65 61
8 70 8 70 68
9 90 53 9 90 73
10 110 60 10 110 75
11 112 70 11 112 90
12 105 79 12 105 104
13 95 87 13 95 109
14 80 91 14 80 104
15 62 91 15 62 93
16 65 91 16 65 79
17 55 90 17 55 69
18 40 86 18 45 61
19 45 77 19 40 55
20 60 68 20 35 47
21 50 40
22 60 42
23 72 48
24 80 61
25 96 71
26 102 83
27 110 93
28 120 103
29 142 111
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING EXAMPLE:

Actual Forecast
Week Sales Moving
Average SQ OF ERROR Week
1 362 1
2 385 2
3 432 3
4 341 4
5 382 380 2 4 5
6 409 385 576 6
7 498 391 11449 7
8 387 408 420 8
9 473 419 2916 9
10 513 442 5077 10
11 582 468 13053 11
12 474 489 218 12
13 544 511 1122 13
14 582 528 2889 14
15 681 546 18360 15
16 557 570 176 16
17 628 591 1369 17
18 707 612 9025 18
19 773 643 16835 19
20 592 666 5513 20
21 627 675 2304 21
22 725 675 2525 22
23 854 679 30538 23
24 661 700 1482 24
MSE 6624
Single
Forecast
alpha
0.3

Sales Forecast SQ OF ERROR


362
385 362 529
432 369 3982
341 388 2193
382 374 68
409 376 1073
498 386 12528
387 420 1066
473 410 3987
513 429 7090
582 454 16369
474 492 340
544 487 3259
582 504 6078
681 527 23585
557 573 272
628 569 3534
707 586 14548
773 623 22630
592 668 5730
627 645 324
725 640 7295
854 665 35640
661 722 3703
MSE 7326
Week Sales Forecast SUMMARY OUTPUT
1 30 -33.32857
2 35 -3.304511 Regression Statistics
3 40 26.71955 Multiple R 0.98876573
4 42 56.74361 R Square 0.97765768
5 56 86.76767 Adjusted R Squ0.97641644
6 84 116.7917 Standard Error 27.5876533
7 140 146.8158 Observations 20
8 170 176.8398
9 200 206.8639 ANOVA
10 232 236.888 df
11 245 266.912 Regression 1
12 270 296.9361 Residual 18
13 300 326.9602 Total 19
14 334 356.9842
15 376 387.0083 Coefficients
16 412 417.0323 Intercept -63.352632
17 467 447.0564 Week 30.0240602
18 500 477.0805
19 549 507.1045
20 556 537.1286
21 567.1526 RESIDUAL OUTPUT
22 597.1767
23 627.2008 ObservationPredicted Sales
1 -33.328571
2 -3.3045113
3 26.7195489
4 56.743609
5 86.7676692
6 116.791729
7 146.815789
8 176.83985
9 206.86391
10 236.88797
11 266.91203
12 296.93609
13 326.96015
14 356.984211
15 387.008271
16 417.032331
17 447.056391
18 477.080451
19 507.104511
20 537.128571
Week Line Fit Pl
1000
500

Sales
0
0 5 10 15 20 2
-500
Week

SS MS F Significance F
599460.4 599460.4 787.6458 2.6E-16
13699.42 761.0786
613159.8

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
12.81533 -4.943503 0.000105 -90.27665 -36.42862 -90.27665 -36.42862
1.069803 28.06503 2.6E-16 27.77649 32.27163 27.77649 32.27163

Residuals
63.32857
38.30451
13.28045
-14.74361
-30.76767
-32.79173
-6.815789
-6.83985
-6.86391
-4.88797
-21.91203
-26.93609
-26.96015
-22.98421
-11.00827
-5.032331
19.94361
22.91955
41.89549
18.87143
Week Line Fit Plot
Sales
Predicted Sales
5 10 15 20 25

Week
popln mean 7
x bar 6.6
sx 1.2
n 45
0.178885
0.012674

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