ISOP January 2023
ISOP January 2023
January 2023
VISION To be a leader and role model in a broad based and integrated financial service business
✓ A US $48.3 bn corporation - one of the largest ✓ A leading Canadian financial services company
Indian conglomerates with operations in over 36
countries ✓ AUM CAD $ 1,445 billion (as on Dec 31, 2021)
✓ A dominant player in many commodity & ✓ Offering diversified range of risk and financial
manufacturing businesses apart from service management products for individuals and corporate
businesses ✓ Large international footprint across continents –
✓ Major presence in Financial Services - Mutual Funds, major presence in North America & Asia
Life Insurance, Wealth Management & Distribution,
Security based lending, Infrastructure Finance,
General Insurance Advisory, Broking & Private Equity
Equity Funds Discretionary India Equity Opportunities Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset
Fund (Cat3 – Open Ended) Management Company Pte Ltd
31
Portfolio Construction Process
5. Monitoring
2. Stock Screening Investment • Periodic monitoring
• Financial Modelling & Due Diligence Process • Stop loss Triggers
• Quantitative & Qualitative Screener • Maintain Sell Discipline
12
Investment Process - Screening & Monitoring
Screening
Fundamentals Monitoring
Return on Equity >15%
Net Debt / EBITDA less than 2x
Improving margins & Turnover Ratios
Aggregate Portfolio liquidity If loss on stock is higher than
Stop loss Triggers benchmark on trailing 3
months by more than 30%
Valuation
Higher EPS Growth, RoCE & Net Debt to EBITDA vs benchmark
Large Opportunity Canvas
Quarterly Monitoring
Periodic Monitoring Event Based Triggers
Governance
Promoter's conduct & Management Integrity
High Pledge & Accounting Red Flags Poor Capital Allocation
Limited Equity Dilution in recent past
Maintain Sell Discipline Weakening Competitive Position
Any emerging governance issues
Portfolio Construct
Portfolio Weight Catalysts that drive stock selection Rationale
• Micro turnaround
Higher upside potential
• Macro / Change in business cycle
with catalyst expected to
65% - 70% • Management change
play out over a period of
• Deleveraging
2-3 years
• Demerger
Portfolio Universe
ROE/ ROCE
Apply quantitative &
Leverage and debt servicing
qualitative screeners
Management Quality
Reject the companies which do not filter through the screeners Micro / Macro Turnaround
Identify companies that
Demerger / Deleveraging
benefit from the catalysts
Management Change
Narrow down the list to 50 -60 stocks
Risk / Reward Analysis
Portfolio optimisation
Significant potential upside
Select 15-25 quality companies with high growth and potential upside
Quantitative factors
▪ Strong balance sheets
▪ Good capital allocation track record
▪ High return on capital over a longer time frame
Qualitative factors
▪ High corporate governance
▪ Established business model
▪ Prominent market share
▪ Skilled management
Market Cap Categorization as per Average Market Capitalization of listed companies during the six
months ended December 31, 2022. Source: AMFI
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited – Portfolio Manager 12
As of December 31, 2022
Current Model Portfolio
Portfolio vs. Benchmark (Higher Growth/ROEs with low leverage)
Prem/Disc to Top 10 Holdings & Weights
PE (x) FY22A FY23E FY24E benchmark
% of Net
(FY24E) Top 10 Portfolio Holdings
ISOP 30.5 28.2 23.3 Assets
NSE 500 23.6 23.1 19.0 22.8%
ICICI Bank Ltd 6.8%
NIFTY 24.5 21.5 18.2
Axis Bank Ltd 6.5%
Prem/Disc to Trent Ltd 5.7%
ROE (%) FY22A FY23E FY24E benchmark
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 5.1%
(FY24E)
ISOP 15.3% 16.0% 17.5% Bharti Airtel Ltd 4.6%
NSE 500
NIFTY
14.8%
14.6%
14.1%
14.8%
13.5%
15.5%
30.1%
Persistent Systems Ltd 4.4%
Bank Of Baroda 4.4%
Prem/Disc to
Bharat Dynamics Limited 4.3%
EPS growth (%) FY22A FY23E FY24E benchmark
(FY24E) Siemens Ltd 4.0%
ISOP
NSE 500
27.1%
22.8%
25.7%
2.1%
21.0%
21.8% -3.5%
ITC Ltd 3.8%
NIFTY 20.4% 6.3% 18.4%
Prem/Disc to
Net Debt to Equity (%) FY 22 FY18E FY18E
benchmark
* Financials excluded in calculation of D/E
ISOP -11.6%
Source: All ratios are based on Bloomberg consensus estimates.
NSE 500 7.0% -266%
NIFTY 9.1%
Note: Premium/Discount to benchmark Nifty 500 is listed for the period FY23E.
Absolute CAGR
Returns (%) Since Inception
1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year 2 year 3year
(14/06/2018)
India Special Opportunities
-3.0% 2.6% 14.4% 5.7% 20.1% 19.8% 15.3%
Portfolio
Nifty 500 -3.1% 4.2% 15.4% 3.0% 15.8% 16.1% 11.6%
Disclaimer :
Past performance of any product does not indicate its future performance. The returns of investment approaches are calculated using TWRR method and considers all inflows and
outflows and market value of entire portfolio for computation of performance . It is calculated net of all expenses and fees. Investment approach level performance reported above is
not verified by SEBI.
As on December 31, 2022
Investment Rationale
➢ 90-95% of the mining demand is currently being serviced by conventional and forged mill internals. With the industry moving from cost
of parts to total cost of ownership, there is a huge opportunity for AIA to convert users to high chrome mill internals.
➢ Despite the overall challenging environment, AIAE is continuing with its capex plans to fuel long-term growth (FY21 capex at Rs.250 cr.).
➢ Volumes are expected to pick up from FY22 onwards as demand normalizes. The company has net cash of Rs.1,460 cr. after dividend
payment in March 20.
➢ Valuations at 29x FY22 P/E are reasonable for the quality of the franchisee (RoE of 14.4% in FY22E) along with long runway for growth
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited - Portfolio Manager Source: Bloomberg, Internal Research 16
Shree Cement – Macro turnaround
Business :- Materials
Investment Rationale
➢ SRCM stands out within the cement industry for the following reasons:
• Consistent capacity addition providing volume growth visibility
• Volume growth is expected to be higher than industry, leading to consistent market share gain in the coming years.
➢ This will make SRCM the largest beneficiary of expected sector upturn; (c) industry leading RoE at 18%; (d) Strong balance sheet with net
cash position, which is expected to sustain in the medium term.
➢ While the industry demand may fall in the short term due to Covid disruptions, demand for Shree may fall lesser than industry & the
strong cash levels in the is expected to benefit Shree.
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited - Portfolio Manager Source: Bloomberg, Internal Research 17
Bharti Airtel – Macro Turnaround
Business :- Communication
❑ Bharti Airtel is well positioned to benefit from the improving sector dynamics led by improvement in ARPUs. Improving data usage, lower
selling & distribution expenses, growth in home broadband & positive outcome of AGR issues bode well for the telecom sector.
Investment Rationale
➢ In contrast to fears, the company has witnessed only limited churn post RJio’s recent Jio fiber launch (35-40% of recent plan renewals
were annual). The recently launched ‘Xstream’ website and app (rebranded version of Airtel Thanks) offer wide content, which should
further increase FTTH subscriber stickiness.
➢ ARPU accretion from broadband subscribers (2x ARPU v/s voice only subs) is likely to contribute to growth. We expect consol. EBITDA
CAGR of around 25% over FY20-22 due to the above mentioned reasons.
➢ While the steady EBITDA performance, deleveraging and the improving FCF position have protected the stock even in the current weak
market, an incremental upside would hinge on pricing actions & positive regulatory verdicts.
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited - Portfolio Manager Source: Bloomberg, Internal Research 18
Trent Limited – Mid to large cap potential
Business :- Retail
Investment Rationale
➢ Trent was among the earliest entrants in the organised retail sector in India and has focused on developing a robust business model in
each of the retail formats pursued. Trent is pre-dominantly present in high growth / profitable women wear portfolio (~60 efficiently
managing supply-chain / inventories which itself creates a strong entry barriers for peers.
➢ Zara, where Trent has a 50% stake (in the JV with Inditex), is a jewel in the company’s crown. Going forward, we expect Zara to record
~12% YoY revenue growth. As of 31st March’20, Trent has Rs.840 cr. in cash balances and in liquid debt funds, indicating the company
has strong cash position.
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited - Portfolio Manager Source: Bloomberg, Internal Research 19
ICICI Bank Limited– Management change
Business :- Banking
Investment Rationale
➢ Changes at the senior management level with the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi as ED and COO of the bank to oversee all
operations of the group.
➢ While the bank’s balance sheet is superior than its peers given the construct of its loan book, near term performance can be contingent
upon the recovery path for the sector in a post Covid environment.
➢ Adequate CET 1 capital of 15.7%, strong deposit franchise & technology leadership is expected to help ICICI Bank tide over the Covid
crisis in a better way.
➢ Valuations are at a significant discount to the private banking space at 2.8x FY22 P/B, offering a high margin of safety.
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited - Portfolio Manager Source: Bloomberg, Internal Research 20
India Special Opportunities – Portfolio Construct
Portfolio Name India Special Opportunities
Aditya Birla Sun Life Portfolio Management Services is a division of Aditya Birla Sun Life
AMC Limited.
CIN no. U65991MH1994PLC080811; Website: https://mutualfund.adityabirlacapital.com/
One India Bulls Centre, Tower 1, 17th Floor, Jupiter Mill Compound, 841, Senapati Bapat
Marg, Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013.
Tel: 4356 8000. Fax: 4356 8110 / 8111