INTRODUCTION

TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

by Konrad Miotlinski, PhD
UFSC, Florianópolis, 2019
WHAT IS THE GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE?
Climate change
Desertification
Stratospheric and land degradation
ozone depletion Diverse pathways
Agroecosystem
UV exposure productivity

Human health
Population Altered
displacement precipitation
Decline in several Water quantity
ecosystem services and safety
Biodiversity loss and
ecosystem function Freshwater decline

www.who.int
WHAT WERE THE MAJOR STEPS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OUR CIVILIZATION?
FIVE REVOLUTIONS OF
OUR CIVILIZATION

Charles Galton Darwin in the book “The

Next Million Years” (1953)

There has been four occasions when

man took a step forward that changed
the nature of life on earth irreversibly

The fifth one is still ahead of us

THE FIRST REVOLUTION

The use for cooking and warmth

The creation of tools out of bronze and

iron
THE SECOND REVOLUTION -
AGRICULTURE

organized agricultural practices

were able to provide us with
food—both animal and
vegetable—more readily than
hunter–gatherers
THE THIRD REVOLUTION -
URBAN DEVELOPMENT

The invention of cities brought the

advantages of the division of labor and
the establishment and regular practice of
trade, through which people in different
locations could obtain goods not
available locally
THE FORTH REVOLUTION -
SCIENCE

“the discovery that it is possible

consciously to make discoveries about
the fundamental nature of the world, so
that by their means man can intentionally
and deliberately alter his way of life.”
FIFTH REVOLUTION -
EXHAUSTION OF FOSSIL FUELS
harnessing energy from the sun
directly, or indirectly

through wind, tides, and rivers

atomic power

geothermal heat

vertical temperature gradient of

the ocean

plants to produce alcohol as a

convenient fuel
 INCREASE OF CONCENTRATIONS
OF GREENHOUSE GASES (GHG)
www.noaa.gov
 THE HEAT IS TRAPPED IN THE TROPOSPHERE
DUE TO SELECTIVE ADSORPTION BY GHG
www.socratic.org
GHG ADSORB INFRARED
RADIATION

Difficult
Easy transfer
transfer of
of thermal
thermal
energy
energy
(Energy
adsorption
takes place)
THEORETICAL TEMPERATURE FROM
THE HEAT BALANCE EQUATION

α - Adsorptivity (co-albedo) of Earth (0.7)

S - Solar constant (1360 W/m2)
Ac - Total X-sectional area of Earth
σ - Boltzmann constant
ε - Emissivity of Earth (0.95)
A - Total surface area of Earth
Tp - Average temperature

Tp = 258 K (–18°C)
Tobs = 291 K (+15°C)
The difference implies the greenhouse effect

Watts (ed.), 2013

VENUS AND MARS AS TWO
EXTREMES

American Chemical Society

 INCREASE IN CO2 RESULTS IN
HIGHER TEMPERATURES
www.noaa.gov
WHAT ARE THE WAYS
TO STOP THE TRENDS?

1. Cause the concentrations of atmospheric GHGs to reach

steady-state values. This can be accomplished either by
decreasing the sources of these gases or by increasing the sinks.

2. Control the climate itself. This may sound like science fiction,
but such ideas should not be rejected out of hand. Landing a
human on the moon seemed like science fiction only a few
decades ago.
CHANGES INTO THE GLOBAL
ENERGY BALANCE

Positive feedback -
increases the
temperature

Negative feedback -
decreases the temperature
THE CYCLE OF WATER VAPOUR
AS A POSITIVE FEEDBACK
IS THERE ROBUST EVIDENCE
THAT TEMPERATURES INCREASE?
base period: 1951-1980
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY OF GLOBAL LANDS
base period: 1951-1980
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY OF GLOBAL OCEANS
MAPS INFORM WHERE
THE ANOMALIES OCCUR
IS THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERE
GETTING WARMER?
STRATOSPHERE TEMPERATURES
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season

AVERAGE GROWING SEASON LENGTH

WINTERS ARE GETTING
SHORTER
MUIR GLACIER - ALASKA (US)

1941 2003

Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University

 INCREASE IN STRONG RAINFALLS
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/76909/flooding-in-southeastern-brazil

Torrential rain inundates ES, RJ and MG states

30/12/2011 to 6/12/2012
SEA LEVEL RISES
 “Type a quote here.”

–Johnny Appleseed

www.noaa.gov
MORE ABOUT PH CHANGES OF
SEAWATER

The pH scale is not linear. A drop from

8.2 to 8.1 indicates a 30% increase in
acidity, or concentration of hydrogen
ions; a drop from 8.1 to 7.9 indicates a
150% increase in acidity

Some scientists suggest that if a sea

reaches 7.6, shell creatures will find it
difficult to form their shells.
FACTS ABOUT CORALS

Form symbiotic relationship with “dinoflagellates,” an algae

A fifth of coral reef is unlikely to recover.
Sea level rise may cause that the dinoflagellates do not
receive the amount of light they need.
KRILL DYE OFF IN THE
ANTARCTIC REGION
Phytoplankton, which is at the bottom of the
ocean’s food chain, declines due to warming

A NASA satellite tracked water

temperature and the production of
phytoplankton (1997 to 2006) and found
that when one went up, the other went
down.

In one region near the Antarctic peninsula,

krill numbers have fallen by some 80% since
the 1970s. This is likely to be true in the
Arctic since krill feed on algae under sea ice,
and the Arctic Sea ice is receding
significantly.
WHAT IF WE DO NOT HAVE
MEASUREMENTS?
Examples of proxies:
tree rings in very old wood

temperature/precipitation during
the growing season

the relative amounts of protium and

deuterium allows one to separate
precipitation effect

Rock & ice chemical composition

Rock & ice isotope composition

WHERE THE PREDICTIONS COME
FROM?
EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL MODELS
INCREASE IN RESOLUTION
GCMS TO DECOUPLE NATURAL
AND ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES
Actual
temperature

Natural
variations only
PREDICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE, BUT STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
THE ANTHROPOCENE - A NEW
EPOCH IN THE HISTORY OF THE EARTH
FROM PLEISTOCENE TO
ANTHROPOCENE
THE MILANKOVICH CYCLES -
NATURAL CYCLES OF THE EARTH

100 ky 41 ky 23 ky
MILANKOVICH CYCLES TO INFORM
NATURAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
Proxy data and recent
instrumentation

Temperatures drifted slowly downward

(cooled) for 900 years until the beginning
of the twentieth century.

Afterward, they began to rise very rapidly.

The recent change is referred to the

‘hockey stick’ by climate change skeptics
SKEPTICS: ARE THEIR DOUBTS
SCIENTIFICALLY VALID?
• the overwhelming majority of
climatologists agree on the
fundamental science

• no articles appear in the peer-

reviewed literature that is
skeptical of global environmental
change

• Independent groups of scientists

to address the contentious
issues
COURSE ORGANIZATION

Start and maintain a blog on an

environmental subject for the duration of the
course (11 weeks) - in Portuguese or English

Give a presentation on a selected topic in

Portuguese or English - list of topics to be
available on Moodle

Discussion in the class - presence and activity

FREE WWW RESOURCES

National Centers for Environmental Operation (https://

www.ncdc.noaa.gov)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch)

NASA (https://climate.nasa.gov)

Climate Science Centers (https://nccwsc.usgs.gov)

European Environmental Agency (https://www.eea.europa.eu)

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (http://www.inpe.br/besm/)

LITERATURE (JOURNALS)
Nature

Science

Global Environmental Change

Earth’s Future

Earth and Space Science

Journal of Climate

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

LITERATURE (BOOKS)
Arnell, N., 2014 - Hydrology and Global Environmental Change. Routledge - Taylor
and Francis Group

Berner E.K., and R.A, Berner, 2014 - Global Environment: Water, Air and
Geochemical Cycles, Second Edition. Princeton Univ Press.

Masselink G., and R. Gehrels, Coastal Environments and Global Change, AGU
Wiley

Purkis S., and V. Klemas, 2011 - Remote Sensing and Global Environmental Change,
First Edition, Wiley-Blackwell

Watts R.G. (ed.), 2013 - Engineering response to climate change. Second edition.
CRC Press.