Operation Research Module

CHAPTER-V
NETWORK MODEL
Project -A complex, non-routine, one-time effort limited by time, budget, resources, and
performance specifications designed to meet customer needs.
Major Characteristics of a Project
– Has an established objective.
– Has a defined life span with a beginning and an end.
– Requires across-the-organizational participation.
– Involves doing something never been done before.
– Has specific time, cost, and performance requirements.
One of the most popular uses of networks is for project analysis. Such projects as the
construction of a building, the development of a drug, or the installation of a computer system
can be represented as networks. These networks illustrate the way in which the parts of the
project are organized, and they can be used to determine the time duration of the projects. The
network techniques that are used for project analysis are CPM and PERT. CPM stands for
critical path method, and PERT is an acronym for project evaluation and review technique.
These two techniques are very similar.
There were originally two primary differences between CPM and PERT. With CPM, a single,
or deterministic, estimate for activity time was used, whereas with PERT probabilistic time
estimates were employed. The other difference was related to the mechanics of drawing the
project network. In PERT, activities were represented as arcs, or arrowed lines, between two
nodes, or circles, whereas in CPM, activities were represented as the nodes or circles. However,
these were minor differences, and over time CPM and PERT have been effectively merged into
a single technique, conventionally referred to as simply CPM/PERT.
CPM and PERT were developed at approximately the same time (although independently)
during the late 1950s. The fact that they have already been so frequently and widely applied
attests to their value as management science
Project Scheduling
A project schedule is typically the most critical element in the project management process,
especially during the implementation phase (i.e., the actual project work), and it is the source of
most conflict and problems. One reason is that frequently the single most important criterion for
the success of a project is that it be finished on time. If a stadium is supposed to be finished in
time for the first game of the season and it's not, there will be a lot of angry ticket holders; if a

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school building is not completed by the time the school year starts, there will be a lot of angry
parents; if a shopping mall is not completed on time, there will be a lot of angry tenants; if a
new product is not completed by the scheduled launch date, millions of dollars can be lost; and
if a new military weapon is not completed on time, it could affect national security. Also, time
is a measure of progress that is very visible. It is an absolute with little flexibility; you can
spend less money or use fewer people, but you cannot slow down or stop the passage of time.
Time Out: For Henry Gantt
Both CPM and PERT are based on the network diagram, which is an outgrowth of the bar, or
Gantt, chart that was designed to control the time element of a program. Henry Gantt, a
pioneer in the field of industrial engineering, first employed the Gantt chart in the artillery
ammunition shops at the Frankford Arsenal in 1914, when World War I was declared. The
chart graphically depicted actual versus estimated production time.
Developing a schedule encompasses four basic steps. First, define the activities that must be
performed to complete the project; Second, sequence the activities in the order in which they
must be completed; Third, estimate the time required to complete each activity; and Fourth,
develop the schedule based on the sequencing and time estimates of the activities.
Because scheduling involves a quantifiable measure, time, there are several quantitative
techniques available that can be used to develop a project schedule, including the Gantt chart
and CPM/PERT networks. There are also various computer software packages that can be used
to schedule projects, including the popular Microsoft Project. Let us now describe one of the
oldest and most widely used scheduling techniques, the Gantt chart.
The Gantt chart
Using a Gantt chart is a traditional management technique for scheduling and planning small
projects that have relatively few activities and precedence relationships. This scheduling
technique (also called a bar chart) was developed by Henry Gantt, a pioneer in the field of
industrial engineering at the artillery ammunition shops of the Frankford Arsenal in 1914. The
Gantt chart has been a popular project scheduling tool since its inception and is still widely used
today. It is the direct precursor of the CPM/PERT technique.

A Gantt chart is a graph or bar chart with a bar for each project activity that shows the
passage of time.
The Gantt chart is a graph with a bar representing time for each activity in the project being
analyzed. Figure 1 illustrates a Gantt chart of a simplified project description for building a
house. The project contains only seven general activities, such as designing the house, laying
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the foundation, ordering materials, and so forth. The first activity is "design house and obtain
financing," and it requires 3 months to complete, shown by the bar from left to right across the
chart. After the first activity is finished, the next two activities, "lay foundation" and "order and
receive materials," can start simultaneously. This set of activities demonstrates how a
precedence relationship works; the design of the house and the financing must precede the next
two activities.
Figure 1. A Gantt chart

The activity "lay foundation" requires 2 months to complete, so it will be finished, at the
earliest, at the end of month 5. "Order and receive materials" requires 1 month to complete, and
it could be finished after month 4. However, observe that it is possible to delay the start of this
activity 1 month, until month 4. This delay would still enable the activity to be completed by
the end of month 5, when the next activity, "build house," is scheduled to start. This extra time
for the activity "order and receive materials" is called slack.

Slack is the amount of time by which an activity can be delayed without delaying any of the
activities that follow it or the project as a whole.

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The remainder of the Gantt chart is constructed in a similar manner, and the project is
scheduled to be completed at the end of month 9.

A Gantt chart provides a visual display of a project schedule, indicating when activities are
scheduled to start and to finish and where extra time is available and activities can be delayed.
A project manager can use a Gantt chart to monitor the progress of activities and see which
ones are ahead of schedule and which ones are behind schedule. A Gantt chart also indicates the
precedence relationships between activities; however, these relationships are not always easily
discernible. This problem is one of the disadvantages of the Gantt chart method, and it limits
the chart's use to smaller projects with relatively few activities. However, the CPM/PERT
network technique does not suffer this disadvantage.

CPM/PERT
Critical path method (CPM) and Project evaluation and review technique (PERT) were
originally developed as separate techniques. Both are derivatives of the Gantt chart and, as a
result, are very similar. There were originally two primary differences between CPM and
PERT. With CPM, a single estimate for activity time was used that did not allow for variation;
activity times were treated as if they were known with certainty. With PERT, multiple time
estimates were used for each activity that reflected variation; activity times were treated as
probabilistic. The other difference was in the mechanics of drawing a network. In PERT,
activities were represented as arcs, or lines with arrows, between circles called nodes, whereas
in CPM activities were represented by the nodes, and the arrows between them showed
precedence relationships (i.e., which activity came before another). However, over time CPM
and PERT have effectively merged into a single technique conventionally known as
CPM/PERT.
6.4.6.2.3. Critical Path Method

This is a diagrammatic representation which shows the various activities in a project. The aim
of the CPA is to identify how those activities link together and to show the critical path or the
sequence of activities where a delay will result in the overall project being delayed. An activity
is said to be critical if a delay in its start will cause a further delay in the completion of the
entire project.
The sequence of critical activities in a network is called the critical path. It is the longest path in
the network from the starting event to the ending event and defines the minimum time required
to complete the project. In the network it is denoted by double line. This path identifies all the
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critical activities of the project. Hence, for the activity (i,j) to lie on the critical path, following
condition must be satisfied.
a) ESi= LSi
b) EFi = LFj
c) ESj- ESi = LFj- LFi = tij.

ES i, EF j, are the earliest start, and finish time of the event j and i. LS i, LF j, are the latest
start, finish time of the event j and i.

The procedure of determining the critical path

Step 1. List all the jobs and then draw arrow (network) diagrams. Each job indicated by an
arrow with the direction of the arrow showing the sequence of jobs. The length of the arrow has
no significance. The arrows are placed based on the predecessor, successor, and concurrent
relation within the job.
Step2. Indicate the normal time ( tij) for each activity ( i,j) above the arrow which is
deterministic.
Step 3. Calculate the earliest start time and the earliest finish time for each event and write the
earliest time Ei for each event i. Also calculate the latest finish and latest start times.
Step 4. Indurate the various times namely normal time, earliest time and latest time on the arrow
diagram.
Step 5. Determine the total float for each activity by taking the difference between the earliest
start and the latest start time.
Step 6. Identify the critical activities and connect them with the beginning event and the ending
event in the network diagram by double line arrows. This gives the critical path.
Step 7. Calculate the project duration.
Example:
A small maintenance project consists of the following jobs whose precedence relationship is
given below.
Job 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-5 3-4 3-6 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7
Duratio 15 15 3 5 8 12 1 14 3 14
n ( days)

Required:

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a) Draw an arrow diagram representing the project.

b) Find the total float for each activity.
c) Find the critical path and the total project duration.

Solution:
i) The network diagram that represents the project is as follows

5 5
15
2

1 1 3

3 4 7
14
15 14
8
3 12
6

ii) The total float for each activity

To determine the total float first the earliest start and finish; late start and finish are computed.
Forward pass calculation
In this we estimate the earliest start and the earliest finish time.
ESj given by:
ESj= Max (ESj, tij)
Where Esi is the earliest time and tij is the normal time for the activity (i,j).
ES1=0
ES2= ES1 + t15= 0 + 15=15
ES3= Max ( ES 2 + t23, Es1 + 13)
= Max ( 15 +3, 0+15) = 18
ES4= ES3+ t34 = 18+8 = 26
ES5 = Max ( ES 2 + 25, ES4 + t45)
= Max ( 15 +5, 26+1) = 27
ES6 = Max ( ES3+t36, ES4+ t46, ES5+t56)
= Max ( 18+12, 26+24, 27+3)

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= 40
ES7 = ES6 + t67 = 40 +14 = 54

Backward pass Calculation

In this we calculate the earliest finish and latest start time Lfi, given by LFi = Min ( LFj-tij)
where LFj is the latest finish time for the event j.
LF7 = 54
LF6= LF7 = t67 = 54-14 = 40
LF5= LS 6-t56= 40-3 = 37
LF4 = Min ( LS5-t45, LS6-t46)
= Min ( 37-1, 40-14) = 26
LF3 = Min ( LF4-t34, LF6-t35)
= Min ( 26-8, 40-12) = 18
LF2 = Min ( LF5 - t25, LF3-t23)
= Min ( 37-5, 18-3) = 15
LF 1 = Min ( LF3-t13, LF2-t12)
= Min ( 18-15, 15-150=0
The following table given the calculation for critical path and total float.

Earliest Latest
Normal Total float LFj-
Activity Start Finisgh Start Finish
time ESj or LFi-ESi
ESi ESj LFi LFj
1-2 15 0 15 0 15 0
1-3 15 0 15 3 18 3
2-3 3 15 18 15 18 0
2-5 5 15 20 32 37 17
3-4 8 18 26 18 26 0
3-6 12 18 30 28 40 10
4-5 1 26 40 26 40 0
5-6 3 27 30 37 40 10
6-7 14 40 54 40 54 0

iii)The critical path p

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From the above table we observe that the activities 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-6, 6-7 are the critical
activities.
The critical path is given by, 1-2-3-4-6-7
The total projection is given by 54 days.
6.4.6.2.4. Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
PERT is a time-oriented technique designated to cater for projects where it is not possible to
estimate the exact duration of the activity. It uses statistical theory to estimate how long a
project is likely to last, and the probability of completing the project by a particular date.
PERT involves four key activities

PERT

PERT is a further development of the CPA approach which deals with the influence of changes
in time on the cost of a project. In summary, the approach involves four key activities:

1. Estimating the normal duration for an activity and the normal cost associated with this
time period.
2. Estimating the extent to which this normal duration may be reduced and the additional
costs of doing so. The additional costs may arise from the hiring of additional systems
staff or the overtime worked by existing staff. However, the additional costs do not
always relate to human resources and may, for example, involve additional payments to
secure faster methods of delivering the supplies required. Further, not all activities are
capable of being reduced in terms of time, and for those where reductions may be
achieved, the costs may rise more steeply as successively more time is saved on the
activity. In this, the reductions usually plateau at a lower limit in terms of duration and it
proves impossible to secure further reductions.
3. Addressing those activities on the critical path, so that each activity is ranked in terms
of the cost of saving one week of time. Starting with the activity that costs least to save
a week, and moving down the list in terms of the ranking, produces an assessment of the
time that it is possible to save on the total project time and the consequent increase in
total costs for each incremental week saved. The process is complicated by the fact that
initial changes in the duration of activities on the critical path may result in a change in
the direction of the critical path requiring the consideration of the time/cost trade-off of
other activities.

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4. The project managers assessing the potential benefits of saving time on the project
against the incremental costs of doing so. The application of the time/cost trade-off is
not only useful before the start of a project, but can become a useful aid to the project
manager in controlling the project, as it will indicate the costs associated with proposed
changes in future activities and the time that may be saved.
Formulation of PERT Network
The project under consideration can be presented graphically as a network. Such a
presentation is based on the following assumptions: Turban (1991: 520-521)
1. The project can be subdivided into a set of predictable, independent activities, each
of which has a clear beginning and an end.
2. Each activity can be sequenced on to its predecessors or successors. An activity
cannot start until all its predecessors are completed.
3. The network is not cyclical, that is, each activity is executed one and only once
during the life of the project. Any repeating activity is considered a different
activity.
4. Activity times may be estimated, either as a single- point estimate (CPM) or as a
three-point estimate (PERT).
5. The duration of the activities is independent of each other.

Computing Algorithm for PERT (Network and Activity Slack Time, Earliest and
Latest Activity Times)
In managing the activities of a project, it is some times useful to know how soon or how late an
individual activity can be started or finished without affecting the scheduled completion date of
the total project.
Four symbols are commonly used to designate the earliest and latest activity times.
ES= The earliest start time for an activity. The assumption is that all predecessor activities are
started at their earliest starting time.
EF= The earliest Finish the time for an activity. The assumption is that the activity starts on its
ES and takes its expected time, T.
Therefore,
EF= Es + t
LF= The latest finish in time for an activity without delaying the project. The assumption is
that successive activities take their expected time.

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LS= The latest start time for an activity without delaying the project.
LS= LF - t

The process of calculating ES and EF times involves calculations in sequence from left to right
( in the network) and is some times referred to as a forward pass of calculations. Thus, the ES
of an activity can be determined by summing the times of all preceding activities where two
paths converge at node the, longest path (time wise) govern.

The process of calculating ES and EF times involves calculations in sequence from left to right
(in the network) and is some times referred to as a forward pass of calculations. Thus, the ES
of an activity can be determined by summing the times of all preceding activities where two
paths converge at node, the longest path (time wise) governs.

Example 1: Computation of earliest start and latest start times for the activities in the net
work model for 2 simple data collection project.

Sequence Activity
1-2 Design questionnaire
2-3 Prepare questionnaire
3-4 Prepare Time Table
3-5 Select interviewers
3-6 Select target respondents
4-5 Arrange facilities
4-6 Notify the respondents
5-6 Train the interviewers
6-7 Undertake the interview
7-8 Organize the collected data

Computation of Activity Slack Time

Example:
Time estimates for the activities are shown in days on the diagram.

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6 6 5
7
7 8
5
8 4
1 2 3 4
4

6
5
Required:
a) Determine the critical path
b) How much slack time is available in the path containing notifying the respondents

Solution Time
a. 1-2 -3-5-6-7-8 36 days
b. 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 38 days
c. 1-2-3-4-6-7-8 32 days
d. 1-2-3-6-7-8 31 days

The length of any path can be determined by summing the expected times of the activities on
that path. The path with the longest time is of particular interest because it determines the
projects completion time. If there are any delays along the longest path, here will be
corresponding delays in project completion time. So to shorten the project completion time one
must focus on the longest path. This longest path is so called the critical path and its activities
are referred to as critical activities.
Thus, one the above example, the critical path corresponds to path B with a time requirement of
38 days.
A path slack is the difference between the length of a given path and the length of the critical
path. Thus, the slack corresponding to path C is;
Slack = Time for critical path - Time for = 38 - 32 = 6 days

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Thus, slacks for the paths can be:

Path Slack
A 38-36 2
B 38-38 0
C 38-32 6
D 38-31 7

In conclusion, the expected length of the project is 44 days.

With regard to identification of the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start and latest finish
times, observing the following diagram is instrumental.

Activity ES EF LS LF Activity Slack ( LS-ES)

1-2 0 5 0 5 0-0=0
2-3 5 13 5 13 5-5=0
3-4 13 17 13 17 13-13=0
3-5 13 19 15 21 15-13=2
3-6 13 19 20 26 20-13=7
4-5 17 21 17 21 17-17=0
4-6 17 20 23 26 23-17=6
5-6 21 26 21 26 21-21=0
7-8 31 38 31 38 31-31=0

The computation of earliest times involves "forward pass" through the network and the
computation of the latest times involves a "back-ward pass" through the network. Hence for
finding the LS and LF, we must begin with the earliest finish time of the last activities (i.e. the
project length) and use that time as latest finish time for the last activity.

PERT Under Probabilistic Time Estimates

PERT develops both a measure of central tendency (a mean) and a measure of dispersion ( a
standard deviation) of the time required to complete each activity of a project. Having been

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provided with these two parameters of the completion time distributions for a project
probabilities of finishing the project in any specified lessen or greater time than the mean time
can be readily determined.
Probabilistic time estimates can be made with the help of the following three estimates.
1. Optimistic time estimate (to)
It is a time required for the completion of an activity under optimum conditions.
2. Pessimistic time (tp)
It is a time estimate under worst conditions.
3. The most likely time estimate (tm)
It is the most probable amount that will be required.
Thus by making use of the above, one can estimate project completion times as;
Expected time = te = to + 4tm + tp, Where t is time
6
Standard deviation =  = tp-t0
6
Variance = 2= ( tp - to)2
36
Example: Estimated duration:
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
1-2 3 5 7
2-3 4 8 12
3-4 2 4 6
3-5 3 6 9
3-6 3 6 9
4-5 2 4 6
4-6 1 3 6
5-6 2 5 8
6-7 2 5 14
7-8 4 7 10

Having been provided with this information, let us try to find the following facts;
a) Find the expected duration and variance of each activity
b) Find the expected duration of the project.

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c) Calculate the variance and standard deviation of project length and what is the
probability that the project will be completed:
1. at least 4 days earlier than expected?
2. no more than 4 days later than expected?
d) If the project due date is 41 days what is the probability of meeting the due date.

Solution
Ze Expected path
Paths Activity to tm tp To+4tm+tp length ( E the S2
6 path)
4
1-2-3-5-6-7-8 1-2 3 5 7 5 37 /9
16/9
2-3 4 8 12 8
3-5 3 6 9 6 1
5-6 2 5 8 5 1
6-7 2 5 14 6 4
7-8 4 7 10 7 1
4
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 1-2 3 5 7 5 39 /9
2-3 4 8 12 8 Critical path 16
/9
4
3-4 2 4 6 4 /9
Path 4-5 Activity
2 4 6 (2 path)4  Path 4
/9
5-6 1-2 2 5 8 5 1
1-2-3-5-6-7-8 √
83/9
83
2-3 /9
3-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 1-2 √ 82/9
2-3
3-4
4-5 82
/9
5-6 Project variance
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-4-6-7-8 1-2 √ 285/36
2-3
285/
3-4 36

4-6
6-7
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7-8
1-2-3-6-7-8 1-2 74/9 √ 74 /9
2-3
3-6
6-7
7-8
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Thus, project variance is 82/9 and standard deviation of√ 82/9 . To assist our calculations, let
us approximate the values as: Variance = 9 and standard deviation as 3.

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