energies

Article
A Long-Term Power Supply Risk Evaluation Method for
China Regional Power System Based on Probabilistic
Production Simulation
Jianzu Hu 1 , Yuefeng Wang 1 , Fan Cheng 2,3, * and Hanqing Shi 2

1 China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, Power Construction Corporation of China, Beijing 100048,
China; hujz@creei.cn (J.H.)
2 Center for Strategic Studies, Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing 100088, China
3 Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
* Correspondence: chengfan5566@163.com

Abstract: To qualify the risk of extreme weather events for power supply security during the long-
term power system transformation process, this paper proposes a risk probability evaluation method
based on probabilistic production simulation. Firstly, the internal relationship of extreme weather
intensity and duration is depicted using the copula function, and the influences of extreme weather
on power security are described using the guaranteed power output ability coefficient, which can
provide the extreme scenario basis for probabilistic production simulation. Then, a probabilistic
production simulation method is proposed, which includes a typical-year scenario and extreme
weather events. Meanwhile, an index system is proposed to qualify the power security level, which
applies the loss of load expectation (LOLE) and time of loss of load expectation (TOLE) under different
scenarios and other indices to reveal the long-term power security trend. Finally, the long-term power
supply risks for the Yunnan provincial power system are analyzed using the proposed method,
validating that the proposed method is capable of characterizing the influences of extreme weather on
power security. The security level of different long-term power transformation schemes is evaluated.

Keywords: long-term power supply risk; power system transformation; extreme weather; probability
Citation: Hu, J.; Wang, Y.; Cheng, F.; evaluation; probabilistic production simulation
Shi, H. A Long-Term Power Supply
Risk Evaluation Method for China
Regional Power System Based on
Probabilistic Production Simulation.
1. Introduction
Energies 2024, 17, 2515. https://
doi.org/10.3390/en17112515 Building a new power system dominated by renewables is critical for China to achieve
its carbon neutrality goal, which can accelerate the reform of China’s energy system from
Academic Editors: Charisios Achillas
traditional fossil fuels to renewables [1]. As the largest renewable power owner globally,
and Christos Vlachokostas
China has wind power and solar power capacities of 380 GW and 440 GW, and its penetra-
Received: 11 April 2024 tion of renewables has exceeded 30% [2]. However, China’s power system is still dominated
Revised: 12 May 2024 by coal-fired power plants (CPPs), which have better operation flexibility than renewables,
Accepted: 18 May 2024 which are characterized by intermittence and random power output [3]. Therefore, the
Published: 23 May 2024 transformation from the traditional power system toward a new power system poses mul-
tiple challenges [4], which include higher supply–demand balance regulation capacity [5],
lower system inertia [6], and lower operation resilience [7].
However, the frequent extreme events in recent years have also threatened the safe
Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.
operation of power systems with higher proportions of renewables [8], and several blackout
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
accidents are summarized as follows: On 28 September 2016, a blackout accident occurred
This article is an open access article
in south Australia due to hurricanes and storms [9], which was the first regional blackout
distributed under the terms and
event triggered by severe weather in a system with large amounts of renewable energy that
conditions of the Creative Commons
tripped the grid. On 16 June 2019, a large-area blackout occurred in Argentina and Uruguay,
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
caused by a security control system strategy mistake and insufficient load cutting [10]. On 9
4.0/).
August 2019, a U.K. power outage happened due to a technical issue with gas-fired power

Energies 2024, 17, 2515. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17112515 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

Energies 2024, 17, 2515 2 of 24

plants, and the Hornsea offshore wind farm was unexpectedly offline, resulting in the grid
frequency dropping below 48.9 Hz, with a combined loss of up to 1136 MW [11]. On 28
December 2020, a blackout in Mexico influenced more than 10 million customers [12], and
the load loss was around 26% of the total load because of the transmission lines tripping
and the power flow transferring caused by a wildfire. On 15 February 2021, the Texas
power grid suffered a severe power outage due to extreme cold weather, affecting more
than 4.8 million customers [13]. On 15 August 2023, a large-scale blackout occurred in the
Brazil power system, which was caused by multiple factors, including weak power grid
structure, insufficient power source support, and unreasonable security control [14]. In
August 2022, Sichuan suffered a wide range of long-term and extreme high-temperature
and drought weather, which led to a severe emergency electricity curtailment event [15].
In [16], 138 major blackouts from 1991 to 2021 were categorized and analyzed, indicating
that more than half of these blackout events were caused by natural disasters. It can be
concluded from the above outages that the severity of extreme events, the operation status
of the power system, and the security control strategy are three critical factors for outage
accidents.
Meanwhile, the power risk events in recent years also indicate different forms of power
security threats during the transformation process. In 2021, the rising fossil fuel prices
caused power shortage events in India [17], which led to insufficient power output by
coal power plants. In 2022, extreme drought weather forced Brazil’s hydropower plants to
reduce their output power [18], while hydropower supplies two-thirds of Brazil’s electricity
during regular times. Additionally, the rapid growth of power consumption may also
threaten the supply-demand balance of national power; extreme electricity shortage events
in Pakistan always happen in the summer months, when there is a surge in electricity
demand [19]. As an enormous economy, China faces the above challenges due to the
different structures of regional power sources and growing electricity demand. In 2021
and 2022, power shortage events happened in northeastern China [20] and southwestern
China [21]. In [22], the influence of typhoon weather in power system is analyzed, which
indicates that over-load events may happen due to various line breakage conditions. In [23],
the trend in power security supply in China during the 14th Five-Year period and for the
medium and long terms is analyzed, and suggestions are proposed for constructing a new
power supply guarantee system, which includes enhancing power supply capabilities,
improving demand side response ability, and optimizing the market system. Therefore,
the security of the power supply is a growing concern for the global energy low-carbon
transformation process.
To overcome the above challenges, three critical problems must be solved to guarantee
the safe transformation of China’s power system: changing the regional power source
structure considering both energy endowment and security requirements, optimizing
regional connectivity considering resource complementarity, and utilizing new low-carbon
technologies. In [24], the evolving tendency of electric supply and demand patterns was
analyzed using an economic–energy–electricity prediction analysis model. The prediction
results revealed that the annual electricity consumption will grow to 14,800 TWh in 2050,
which is 1.7 times the 2022 electricity consumption. In [25], the flexibility of the northwest
China power system was investigated considering the uncertainty of renewables. The
analysis results showed that the renewable curtailment problem will be severe as the
proportion of renewable energy grows. In [26], the future energy system pathway for
China’s Greater Bay area was investigated, and the results indicated that regional energy
self-sufficiency would slowly rise with increased local renewable installation. In [27], a high-
resolution assessment model for quantifying the optimal energy structure on provincial
bases was built, which realized 80% renewable penetration by 2050 with large-scale wind,
solar, and energy storage installation. In [28], the total inter-regional power exchange was
estimated to grow to over 2000 TWh in 2050, triple the size of the value in 2022. However,
the designed power system transformation pathways did not consider the influence of
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 3 of 24

extreme events, and the critical factors of power supply security were not provided or
discussed.
In [29], the spatiotemporal distribution of power outages in the USA was analyzed,
indicating that power outages will likely increase with climate change, the aging electrical
grid, and increased energy demand. In [30], a Leontief’s input–output model-based power
grid resilience analysis method was proposed, which is capable of analyzing the influences
of highly distributed energy resources integrated in a power system. In [31], the authors
indicate that flexibility is critical for power security and cost efficiency, and four dimensions
of power system flexibility must be considered: time scale, flexible resources set, system
operation uncertainty, and cost constraints. In [32], a security assessment methodology is
proposed, which can be used for short- term extreme weather event risk analysis. In [33],
a Lagrange-multiplier-based reliability assessment method is proposed to improve com-
putation efficiency considering topology and injection uncertainties. In [34], a risk-averse
restoration method for coupled power and water system is proposed, which is suitable
for improving the operation reliability of distribution networks. In [35], three levels of
reliability metrics are proposed for power grids, but the uncertainty of renewable power
output is not considered. In [36], the simulation cases indicate that the difficulty of ensuring
power supply will gradually increase with growing renewable penetration. The growing
number of extreme weather events has proved that a safe and cost-efficient power system
transformation pathway must be designed to cope with the growing electricity consump-
tion demand and severe climate change. Meanwhile, the current research on power system
transformation security has mainly focused on the power source structure; the influences
of power production under extreme events has not been fully considered.
Therefore, this paper proposes a long-term power-supply risk evaluation method
based on probabilistic production simulation, and the main contributions are as follows:
(1) a high-risk power supply scenario generation method based on Copula function is
proposed, which reflects the probability distribution of extreme weather events for in-
creasing the evaluation accuracy of power supply risk; (2) a power production simulation
method is constructed, which considers the ability to regulate controllable power sources,
the influences of extreme weather on the randomness of power sources, and cross-regional
power transmission; (3) a case study of Yunnan’s power system was carried out to compare
the power supply risk trend for three typical low-carbon transformation pathways, and
the simulation results indicate that a more diverse power source structure, larger energy
storage capacity, and cross-regional power support are effective methods for improving the
power supply’s security level.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, the overall structure of
the long-term power supply risk evaluation method is proposed. In Section 3, the internal
relationship of extreme weather intensity and duration is analyzed, and the guaranteed
power output ability coefficient is applied to describe extreme weather’s influence on
power supply security. Then, Section 4 proposes a probabilistic production simulation
method, which can reflect the performance of a power system under typical extreme
weather events. In Section 5, an index system is proposed to qualify the power security
level with a probabilistic method. In Section 6, the power supply risks of different power
transformation pathways for Yunnan’s provincial power system are compared using the
proposed method. Finally, Section 7 gives the study conclusions.

2. Long-Term Power-Supply Risk Evaluation Method

2.1. General Analysis of Extreme Weather Risks to Power Supply in China
The vast expanse of China’s territory spans from east to west and from north to
south, resulting in significant regional differences in climate and notable variations in
the frequency and intensity of various types of natural disasters. The typical extreme
weather events studied in this paper include cold waves, droughts, sand storms, and
hurricanes, which may influence the power generation ability of different power sources,
especially wind, solar and hydro power. For example, long-term drought may decrease
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 4 of 24

the power output of run-of-river hydropower stations, and the hurricane may trigger
large-scale offshore wind farm shut-offs. Meanwhile, there are three aspects of extreme
weather that also influence regional power security: the intensity, the duration, and the
possible occurrence times. The probability of different extreme weather events also varies
in different regions; the related information is listed in Table 1.

Table 1. Possible occurrence times for different disasters.

High-Risk Areas Possible Occurrence Times

Cold wave All areas Late fall, winter, and the beginning of spring
Higher possibility in spring in northern areas
Drought All areas
Higher possibility in summer and fall in Yangtze River downstream area
Rainstorm East and South China Higher possibility in summer half-year in southern areas
Sand storm Northwest and North China Spring
From late spring to the beginning of winter, high possibility from July
Hurricane East and South China
to September

As Table 1 shows, cold waves mainly threaten the safe operation of northern-area
power systems during cold weather, and droughts pose more significant threats during
hot weather. Sand storms and hurricanes influence the inland region and coastal region in
China, which are the power-sending and power-receiving regions, respectively. In addition
to high-risk areas and when these events occur, the internal relationship between extreme
event duration and intensity also need to be considered in high-risk power supply scenario
generation.

2.2. The Overall Structure of the Probabilistic Production Simulation-Based Long-Term

Power-Supply Risk Evaluation Method
To show the long-term trend in regional power security changes, both normal op-
eration status and extreme operation statuses should be considered, as do the flexibility
of generation sources, load, and grid side. Therefore, this paper proposes a long-term
power supply risk evaluation method based on probabilistic production simulation. The
overall structure of the proposed probabilistic production simulation method is depicted
in Figure 1, which contains four modules: a high-risk power-supply scenario generation
module, a power source and load output regulation module, a power generation simulation
module, and a risk estimation module.
To generate the high-risk power supply scenarios, the Copula method was applied
to depict the intensity and duration of different extreme weather events that influence
power supply security. The relationship between extreme event intensity and duration
was drawn by the selection of the Copula function, and the differences in extreme events’
characteristics in different regions were described by setting the relevant parameters. Then,
the high-risk power supply scenarios were generated to provide the basic information
required for extreme scenario simulation.
Regarding the flexibility of traditional power system resources, the extra generating
capacity, known as spinning reserve, is mainly composed of thermal and controllable
hydropower plants. For new power systems, load-side resources such as demand response,
hydrogen production, storage-side resources, and new types of power generation sources
should also be considered. In this paper, power sources are divided into two categories:
the deterministic power sources and randomness power sources. The power outputs of
deterministic power sources are controllable during the extreme events. Meanwhile, power
storage devices and flexible load-side resources are also considered in this paper. To qualify
the influences of extreme weather on power generation and load, the randomness of power
generation and the load curve are adjusted, which provide the power input for the power
generation simulation.
 Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 23

To qualify the influences of extreme weather on power generation and load, the random-
Energies 2024, 17, 2515
ness of power generation and the load curve are adjusted, which provide the power5input
of 24

for the power generation simulation.

Figure1.1.The
Figure Thewhole
wholestructure
structureofofthe
theproposed
proposedprobabilistic
probabilisticproduction
productionsimulation
simulationmethod.
method.

Thepower
The powergeneration
generationsimulation
simulation module
module contains
contains typical
typical extreme
extreme scenarios
scenarios includ-
including
ing high-risk
high-risk extreme
extreme weatherweather scenarios
scenarios for specific
for specific regionalregional power systems,
power systems, includingincluding
drought,
drought, hurricane,
hurricane, cold waves, cold
andwaves,
so on. and
Thisso on. This
module modulebasic
provides provides basic information
information regarding there-
garding
power the power
security securityyear
in a typical in aand
typical year and
describes the describes the power
power system’s system’s
security levelsecurity
under
certain extreme
level under weather
certain events.
extreme weather events.
After
Afterpower
powergeneration
generationsimulation,
simulation, the
thefinal
finalresult
resultisisanalyzed
analyzedusing
usingthetheproposed
proposed
security
securityindices
indicestotojudge
judgethethesecurity
securitylevels
levelsof
ofdifferent
differentpower
powertransformation
transformationpathways,
pathways,
and
andthe
theloss
lossof
ofthe
theload
loadcost
costunder
underdifferent
differentscenarios
scenariosisisalso
alsobebegiven
givenininaaprobabilistic
probabilistic
form.
form.

3.3.High-Risk
High-RiskExtreme
ExtremeWeather
WeatherScenario
ScenarioGeneration
GenerationMethod
MethodforforPower
PowerSupply
Supply
3.1. Probabilistic Model of Extreme Weather Events Based on Copula Function
3.1. Probabilistic Model of Extreme Weather Events Based on Copula Function
To define the impact of disasters, two indicators, namely, the duration of the disaster
To define the impact of disasters, two indicators, namely, the duration of the disaster
and its intensity, are used for our probabilistic description. This approach helps to determine
and its intensity, are used for our probabilistic description. This approach helps to deter-
the probability of disasters occurring in different regions, laying the foundation for further
mine the probability of disasters occurring in different regions, laying the foundation for
quantitative analyses of disaster impacts. By identifying the probability density functions
further quantitative analyses of disaster impacts. By identifying the probability density
of disaster duration and intensity, as well as their correlation, a joint probability density
function for a particular type of disaster can be obtained, as illustrated in Figure 2.
Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 23

functions of disaster duration and intensity, as well as their correlation, a joint probability
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 6 of 24
density function for a particular type of disaster can be obtained, as illustrated in Figure
2.

Figure 2. Probabilistic model of extreme weather event considering intensity and duration.

The duration
The duration and
and intensity
intensity ofof disasters
disasters typically
typically exhibit exhibit aa left-skewed
left-skewed distribution.
distribution.
Therefore, fitting
Therefore, fittingand
andsimulation
simulation areare
often often conducted
conducted usingusing
the gamma
the gammadistribution, which
distribution,
is a continuous probability function in statistics. The gamma distribution
which is a continuous probability function in statistics. The gamma distribution is a sig- is a significant
distribution
nificant in probability
distribution statistics,
in probability with both
statistics, withtheboth exponential distribution
the exponential and the and
distribution chi-
squared distribution being special cases of the gamma distribution.
the chi-squared distribution being special cases of the gamma distribution. Its probability Its probability density
functionfunction
density (PDF) is(PDF)
as follows:
is as follows:
x
α −1 e − β
(
1
Γ 
( ) αx x x>0
f (x) = α β 1 α −1
−
β (1)

f ( x ) =  Γ (α ) 0βα
x e
x>≤
x 0
0 (1)

 0 x≤0
And, the cumulative density function (CDF) is as follows:
And, the cumulative density function( (CDF) is as follows:
1
γ(α, βx ) x > 0
f ( x ) = Γ(α)1 γ (α , β x ) x > 0 (2)
f ( x ) =  Γ (α )0 x≤0 (2)
 0 x≤0

Therefore, through the rational selection of parameters, the characteristics of the
Therefore,
distribution of the through the and
duration rational selection
intensity of parameters,
of a specific disasterthe in acharacteristics
particular regionof the
candis-
be
tribution
determined, providing a foundation for the probabilistic representation of intensity. be
of the duration and intensity of a specific disaster in a particular region can
determined,
Regarding providing a foundation
the duration for the
and intensity of probabilistic
a specific extreme representation
weather event,of intensity.
there is often
Regarding the duration and intensity of a specific
a certain degree of correlation between the two. For instance, event duration extreme weather event,generally
there is
often a certain
exhibits degree
a negative of correlation
correlation with between
intensity thefor two.
rainfall Forevents.
instance,Onevent duration
the other hand,gener-
high
ally exhibits aexhibits
temperature negative correlation
a positive with intensity
correlation for rainfall
with rainfall events.
duration, whereOn higher
the other hand,
tempera-
high
tures temperature
are generallyexhibits a positive
associated correlation
with longer rainfallwith rainfall
duration. duration, where
Consequently, higher tem-
it is necessary to
peratures are generally associated with longer rainfall duration. Consequently,
characterize both event intensity and duration using a joint probability density distribution it is nec-
essary to characterize
function. Here, the method both event
based intensity
on the Copula and duration
functionusing a joint probability
was adopted for processingdensity
[37],
distribution function.
which was firstly Here, by
introduced theAbe
method
Sklar based
in 1959on theand
[38], Copula function
the details was adopted
are provided for
in what
processing
follows. [37], which was firstly introduced by Abe Sklar in 1959 [38], and the details are
provided
Taking in what follows.
the binary function as an example, if H(x, y) is a binary joint distribution
Taking
function withthecontinuous
binary function as andistributions
marginal example, if H(x, F(x) y) and is aG(y),
binary
then joint distribution
there func-
exists a unique
Copula
tion withfunction
continuous C, which satisfies
marginal distributions F(x) and G(y), then there exists a unique Cop-
ula function C, which satisfies
H ( x, y) = C ( F ( x ), G (y)) (3)
H ( x, y ) = C ( F ( x ) , G ( y )) (3)
The most commonly used Copula functions include the Archimedean Copula family
The most commonly used Copula functions include the Archimedean Copula family
(Frank Copula, Clayton Copula, and Gumbel Copula) and the elliptical Copula family (t
(Frank Copula, Clayton Copula, and Gumbel Copula) and the elliptical Copula family (t
Copula and Gaussian Copula). These Copula functions are widely applied and can be
Copula and Gaussian Copula). These Copula functions are widely applied and can be
used to address different problems based on their unique characteristics. For instance, the
Clayton Copula is capable of characterizing the upper tail behavior of data, the Gumbel
Copula is suitable for describing lower tail behavior, and the Frank Copula is capable of
capturing the symmetric properties of data.
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 7 of 24

Considering the internal relationship between duration and intensity for different
disasters, the Gumbel Copula, t Copula, and Clayton Copula were selected to describe
different weather events, and their CDFs are expressed as
  −1/θ 
Gumbel-Copula : Cθ (u1 , u2 ) = exp − (− log(u1 ))θ + (− log(u2 ))θ
t-Copula : Cv,ρ (u1 , u2 . . . , ud ) = tv,ρ (tv (u1 ), tv (u2 ), . . . , tv (ud )) (4)
 −1/θ
Clayton-Copula : Cθ (u1 , u2 ) = u1−θ + u2−θ − 1

where θ is the bivariate Archimedean Copula parameter, where the permitted value range
varies for different Copulas; ρ is the correlation coefficient; and ν is the degree of freedom.
For the Archimedean Copula, a larger θ indicates a stronger dependency. And, the t Copula
parameter ν controls the tail behavior and the level of dependence in the joint distribution,
enabling the flexible modeling of a wide range of dependencies between random variables.
For the probabilistic model of typical weather events, the corresponding Copula functions
are listed in Table 2.

Table 2. Copula functions used for probabilistic model for different weather events.

Cold Wave Drought Rain Storm Sand storm Hurricane

Copula function Gumbel Gumbel t t Clayton

3.2. High-Risk Scenario Generation for Power Supply Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
Based on the above analysis, by combining the different types of weather events in
various regions and selecting the appropriate Copula function type and related parameters,
we obtained the corresponding distribution functions for event intensity and duration.
By incorporating the Copula parameters, we derived the corresponding joint probability
distribution through Monte Carlo simulation, which includes the following steps: Firstly,
choose the Copula function to simulate specific extreme weather events, and set the relevant
parameters for the Copula function. Secondly, generate N pairs of independent uniformly
distributed random numbers using Monte Carlo simulation. Thirdly, use the inverse
cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the corresponding Copula to generate random
numbers from a standard normal distribution. Fourthly, generate correlated standard
normal distributed random numbers using the correlation coefficient. Fifthly, obtain the
square root of the correlation coefficient matrix using Cholesky decomposition. Finally,
transform the standard normally distributed random numbers to gamma-distributed
random numbers. The main steps are shown as Figure 3.
It is notable that the last step is not directly related to the previous steps involving
Copulas and Cholesky decomposition. The transformation from a standard normal dis-
tribution to a gamma distribution would typically involve other methods, such as the
Box–Muller transform, followed by appropriate scaling and shaping to match the desired
gamma distribution parameters.
Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 8 of 24

Figure3. 3.
Figure TheThe process
process forextreme
for the the extreme
weatherweather
generationgeneration
method. method.
4. Probabilistic Production Simulation Method
4. Probabilistic
4.1. The Randomness Production Simulation
of Power Sources Method
and Load Regulation under Extreme Weather Events
4.1. As
Thementioned
Randomness ofthe
above, Power Sources
flexible andfrom
resources LoadtheRegulation under
power source side,Extreme
load side,Weather
and Eve
power storage side are applied to stabilize unbalanced power. To measure the influences of
As mentioned above, the flexible resources from the power source side, lo
different extreme events, the power output matrix M is used to describe the guaranteed
and power
power output storage side are the
ability considering applied to stabilize
randomness unbalanced
power sources power. extreme
under different To measure th
ences ofscenarios:
weather different extreme events, the " power # output matrix M is used to describe t
anteed power output ability considering m ij · · ·
the randomness power sources under d
M= . .. (5)
extreme weather scenarios: .. .
𝑚 the⋯jth extreme event, and mij is
where mij is the ith random power source coefficient under
𝑀= event.⋮
corelated to the duration and the time-point of the ⋱
The power output of random power source P x ij can be expressed as
where mij is the ith random power source coefficient under the jth extreme event, a
corelated to the duration andx the time-point
mij · · · Pijof the event.
" #" #
P ij = . .. (6)
The power output of random . . source
power
.. . . 𝑃 can be expressed as
𝑚 ⋯
power sources.𝑃
𝑃 =
where Pij is the original power output of random
⋮ wind
For wind power, the power output PW is related to ⋱ velocity
⋮ vW as
where 𝑃 is the originalpower
0
output of random power sources.
0 ≤ vW ≤ v0 ∪ vW ≥ vco
v3 −v3 output PW is related to wind velocity 𝑣

For wind power, the power

PW = Pn vW3 −v30
as
v 0 < vW < v n (7)
n
0 vn ≤ 0vW≤<𝑣vco ≤ 𝑣 ∪ 𝑣 ≥ 𝑣

 0
Pn
= 𝑃velocity, nominal wind
𝑃 wind
where v0, vn, and vco are the cut-in 𝑣 < velocity,
𝑣 < 𝑣and cut-off wind
velocity, respectively. For wind power, low𝑃 power output 𝑣 may
≤ 𝑣 be<caused
𝑣 by windless
weather as well as storm weather, which result in the large-scale cut-off of wind power.
where 𝑣 , 𝑣 , and 𝑣 are the cut-in wind velocity, nominal wind velocity, and
wind velocity, respectively. For wind power, low power output may be caused b
less weather as well as storm weather, which result in the large-scale cut-off
power. Meanwhile, wind power may also trip due to frost, which is caused by ice
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 9 of 24

Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 23

Meanwhile, wind power may also trip due to frost, which is caused by ice buildup on
turbine blades or frozen components.
For solar power, the power output PS is related to radiation intensity IS as
𝑃 𝜂 0≤𝐼 ≤𝑅
𝑃  = 2
 IS P η 0 ≤ I ≤ R (8)
I R 𝑃Sn 𝜂 𝐼 S> 𝑅 C
PS = C C (8)
 IS PSn η IS > RC
IC
where 𝜂 is the panel energy transformation efficiency; 𝑅 is the specified radiation in-
tensity, 2; 𝐼
where η usually set as
is the panel 150 W/m
energy is the efficiency;
transformation radiation intensity
RC is the under normal
specified status,
radiation set to
intensity,
1000 W/m 2. Therefore, cloudy, heavy rain, stormy, dusty, and snowfall weather may de-
usually set as 150 W/m ; IC is the radiation intensity under normal status, set to 1000 W/m2 .
2
crease the reliability
Therefore, of solar
cloudy, heavy power.
rain, stormy, dusty, and snowfall weather may decrease the
For run-of-river hydropower,
reliability of solar power. the power output PHR is related to the flow rate of water
𝑄, which is expressed as
For run-of-river hydropower, the power output P is related to the flow rate of water
HR
Q, which is expressed as 𝑃 = 𝜂(𝑄)𝜌𝑄𝑔𝐻 (9)
PHR = η ( Q)ρQgH (9)
where 𝜂 is the overall efficiency of the hydroelectric system, which is corelated to the flow
where
rate is the 𝜌overall
of ηwater; is theefficiency
density ofofwater;
the hydroelectric system, which
𝑔 is the acceleration due tois gravity;
corelated𝐻toisthe
theflow
net
water; ρ is the density of water; g is the acceleration due to gravity; H
head, which is the difference in elevation between the water source (intake) and thehead,
rate of is the net tur-
which
bine is the(in
outlet difference
meters).inIt elevation between
is noteworthy thatthe water source
hydropower (intake) and
production the related
is also turbine to
outlet
the
(in meters). It is noteworthy that hydropower production is also related to
interbasin scheduling of cascaded hydropower plants [39] and ecological flow [40], which the interbasin
scheduling
may of cascaded
have negative hydropower
effects plantsand
on hydropower [39]needs
and ecological flow [40], which may have
further investigation.
negative effects on hydropower and needs further investigation.
By setting the relevant parameter mij, the power output of random power sources can
By setting the relevant parameter mij , the power output of random power sources can
be adjusted to simulate the influence of extreme weather.
be adjusted to simulate the influence of extreme weather.
The load curve is generated using the typical daily power load curves and monthly
The load curve is generated using the typical daily power load curves and monthly
power consumption data. For different regions, the monthly electricity consumption char-
power consumption data. For different regions, the monthly electricity consumption
acteristic may vary, with the yearly electricity consumption curves for typical China prov-
characteristic may vary, with the yearly electricity consumption curves for typical China
inces shown in Figure 4. Thus, the load coefficient should be designed considering when
provinces shown in Figure 4. Thus, the load coefficient should be designed considering
the extreme events happen and the related factors. For instance, it can be seen from Figure
when the extreme events happen and the related factors. For instance, it can be seen from
4 that the seasonal difference between summer and winter is more significant for southern
Figure 4 that the seasonal difference between summer and winter is more significant for
than northern provinces in China, which reveals that high temperatures cause larger load
southern than northern provinces in China, which reveals that high temperatures cause
increases.
larger load increases.

The yearly
Figure 4. The yearly electricity
electricity consumption
consumption curves
curves for typical Chinese provinces.

4.2. The Production Simulation of Flexible Resources

4.2. The Production Simulation of Flexible Resources
As mentioned above, the flexible resources from the power source side, load side, and
As mentioned above, the flexible resources from the power source side, load side,
power storage are applied to stabilize the unbalanced power caused by the randomness
and power storage are applied to stabilize the unbalanced power caused by the random-
of the power source and load. The flexible resources of the power source side include
ness of the power source and load. The flexible resources of the power source side include
coal-fired power plants (CPPs), natural-gas-fired power plants (NGPs), impoundment
coal-fired power plants (CPPs), natural-gas-fired power plants (NGPs), impoundment hy-
hydropower plants (HPPs), and nuclear power plant (NPPs). Randomness power sources
dropower plants (HPPs),
are more vulnerable and nuclear
to weather power
changes, suchplant (NPPs). Randomness
as run-of-river HPPs, wind power
powersources
plant
are more vulnerable to weather changes, such as run-of-river HPPs, wind
(WPPs), and solar power plants (SPPs). And, the flexible resources of the storage sidepower plant
as
(WPPs), andload
well as the solar power
side plants
include (SPPs). And,
hydropump the flexible
storage (HPS), resources of the energy
electrochemical storage storage
side as
well
(ESS),ascompressed
the load sideairinclude
energyhydropump storage
storage (CAS), (HPS),production
hydrogen electrochemical energy
by water storage
electrolysis
(ESS),
(HWE),compressed
and demand airresponse
energy storage
(DR). The(CAS),
statushydrogen
summaryproduction
of the abovebyflexible
water resources
electrolysis
is
(HWE), and demand
provided in Table 3. response (DR). The status summary of the above flexible resources
is provided in Table 3.
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 10 of 24

Table 3. The operation flexibility of different resources.

Type of Resources Regulation Range Ramp Rate Typical Unit Capacity Start-Up Time Current Scale
Unit % % Pn /min MW Hour GW
before 50~100 1~2 6~10 >550
CPP 200~1000
after 30~100 3~6 4~5 >100
before 80~100 1~2 6~10 >370
CHP-CPP 220~330
after 50~100 3~6 4~5 >80
NGP 20~100 8 50~700 2 ≈120
HPP 0~100 20 25~1000 <1 ≈360
NPP 30~100 2.5~5 300~1750 / ≈55
HPS −100~100 10~50 50~300 <0.1 ≈45
ESS −100~100 100 10~2000 <0.1 ≈12
CAS −100~100 30 20~300 0.1 /
HWE 0~100 / 5~200 / /
3~5% of the total
DR 100~200 / 0 ≈50
load

Considering the minimum power output requirement for flexible power sources,
the regional power system’s net load is balanced using flexible resources according to
following rules: Firstly, the net load curve, which reflects the power difference between
random power and load, is calculated:

Pnet−load (t) = ∑ Px ij (t) − Pload (t) (10)

Then, the minimum power output for controllable power sources under operation
should be subtracted from the net load. In (11), ki refers to the minimum power coefficient
for controllable power source i, and Si is the operational capacity of controllable power
source i.
Punbalanced (t) = Pnet−load (t) − ∑ k i Si (11)
If the unbalanced power is lower than the maximum regulated range of the flexible
power sources, the unbalanced power is compensated using, in priority order, impound-
ment HPP, CPP, and NGP. If the unbalanced power exceeds the maximum regulated range
of the flexible power sources ∆Pmax (t), energy storage resources are activated to fill the
gap, and the discharge power for energy storage resource PES (t) can be expressed as

 Punbalanced (t) − ∆Pmax (t) 0 < SOC ≤ 1 ∪ SES ≥ Punbalanced (t) − ∆Pmax (t)


PES (t) = SES 0 < SOC ≤ 1 ∪ SES < Punbalanced (t) − ∆Pmax (t) (12)
0 SOC = 0


When the discharge power for energy storage resources still cannot fill the gap, load-
side resources are activated to achieve the final balance. Similarly, when the power output
of a random power source and the minimum power output for controllable power sources is
larger than the sum of the load and energy storage resources, renewable power is curtailed
to maintain system balance, as shown in Equation (13):

Pcurtail (t) = Punbalanced (t) − SES (13)

Meanwhile, when flexible power source cannot meet the load requirement under
extreme event periods, energy storage resources can be used for energy shifting by cooper-
ating with flexible power sources. In this scenario, the flexible power sources can maintain
maximum power output to overcome the daily unbalanced power caused by PV.

4.3. Cross-Regional Power Transmission

Most of mainland China’s regional power systems are interconnected by ultra-high-
voltage DC (UHVDC) projects, which can realize asynchronous large-scale power grid
 voltage DC (UHVDC) projects, which can realize asynchronous large-scale power grid
interconnection and large-capacity, long-distance power transmission. For example,
China’s west–east electricity transfer project, as shown in Figure 5, applies UHVDC lines
to2515
Energies 2024, 17, transmit northwestern China’s renewable power and southwestern China’s hydro- 11 of 24
power to the south and to eastern coastal areas, which are load centers. During normal
operation, the transmitted UHVDC power follows the power supply curve, which consid-
interconnection
ers the daily operation and large-capacity,
characteristics long-distance
of both power transmission.
the sending-end For example, China’s
and receiving-end power
west–east electricity transfer project, as shown in Figure 5, applies UHVDC lines to transmit
systems. Meanwhile, there are several lines providing regional interconnection with flex-
northwestern China’s renewable power and southwestern China’s hydropower to the
ible operation south
ability enabling
and to easternmutual aid among
coastal areas, regions.
which are load centers. During normal operation, the
Therefore,transmitted
the cross-regional
UHVDC power linesfollows
were divided
the powerinto two
supply categories:
curve, fixed intercon-
which considers the daily
operation characteristics of both the sending-end and receiving-end power
nection lines, which follow the power supply curve strictly, and flexible interconnection systems. Mean-
while, there
lines, which provide are several
mutual lines providing
aid among regional interconnection
interconnected regions. with flexible operation
ability enabling mutual aid among regions.

Figure 5. The distribution

Figure 5. Theofdistribution
Chinese HVDC projects.
of Chinese HVDC projects.

5. Power Security Therefore,

Evaluation the cross-regional lines were divided
Based on Probabilistic into two categories: fixed interconnec-
Method
tion lines, which follow the power supply curve strictly, and flexible interconnection lines,
5.1. The Power Security Indexmutual
which provide Systemaid among interconnected regions.
In this paper, two indices are used to represent the power supply risk level for re-
5. Power Security Evaluation Based on Probabilistic Method
gional power systems: theSecurity
5.1. The Power loss ofIndex
load expectation (LOLE), and the time of loss of load
System
expectation (TOLE). The first index reflects the local
In this paper, two indices are used power
to represent thesupply and cross-regional
power supply sup-
risk level for regional
port abilities, and
powersecond
systems:index
the lossrepresents the power
of load expectation (LOLE),supply’s reliability
and the time under
of loss of load certain
expectation
scenarios. (TOLE). The first index reflects the local power supply and cross-regional support abilities,
To depictandthesecond
regionalindex represents
power the power
system’s supply’spathway’s
transition reliability under certain scenarios.
performance in terms of
To depict the regional power system’s transition pathway’s performance in terms of
power security, the inter-regional power source abundance index Kinner is proposed, which
power security, the inter-regional power source abundance index Kinner is proposed, which
is the ratio between thebetween
is the ratio expected the power
expectedcapacity Sexp and
power capacity Sexpthe
and maximum
the maximum load
loadpower
power PPLL
under scenariounder
j, which canj,be
scenario expressed
which as
can be expressed as

𝐾 = 𝑆Kinner⁄𝑃
= S=
exp𝑀(:
/PL ,=𝑗)M (𝑆:, j) T𝑃S/ PLmax
𝛼 αj (14)


(14)
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 12 of 24

where S is the installed power source capacity vector, PLmax is the maximum load, and αj
is the load coefficient under extreme scenario j. Despite the indices reflecting the regional
power system’s self-power supply ability, the cross-regional power support ability is
evaluated using the cross-regional emergency power supply abundance index Kextra , which
can be expressed as

Kextra = Sextra / PLmax α j (15)
where Sextra is the extraregional emergency power supply capacity.
The loss of load expectation (LOLE) can quantify the expected number of hours a
specific scenario will last, in which load shedding or loss of load may occur in a power
system, which is typically expressed as

LOLE = Eun /EL × Tscenario (16)

where EUN is the sum of expected unserved energy, EL is the total load energy, and Tscenario
is the duration of the extreme scenario. EUN is expressed as

Eun = ∑ Pconi ·Econi (17)

i

where Pconi is the probability of the contingency occurring, Econi is the energy not supplied
during the unsupplied state for that contingency, and i refers to all contingencies.
Another important index is the TOLE, which indicates the average length of time the
power system fails to meet the demand for electricity within a given period. TOLE can be
expressed as
TOLE = 1 − ∑ Tconi (18)
where Tconi is the duration the power system fails to meet the demand for electricity. Both
LOLE and TOLE represent the reliability of a power system, where the lower LOLE or the
lower the TOLE value, the more reliable the power system.

5.2. The Probabilistic-Based Risk Evaluation Method

Based on the proposed indices and power generation simulation results, the LOLE and
TOLE can be calculated. And, the probability density functions of the LOLE and TOLE are
estimated using the kernel density estimation (KDE) method, which revolves around the
concept of placing a kernel, typically a Gaussian function, at each data point and summing
these kernels to obtain a smooth estimate of the density. The Gaussian kernel function K(u)
is commonly used:
1 u2
K (u) = √ e− 2 (19)
2π
Then, bandwidth h is selected, which determines the width of the kernel. Common
methods for bandwidth selection include Scott’s rule or Silverman’s rule. Considering
the computational expense, Scott’s rule was applied in this study, and the bandwidth h is
expressed as
 1
4 5
h= σ (20)
3n
where σ is the standard deviation of the data.
Then, place a kernel centered at each data point in the dataset. The kernel function
defines the shape of the kernel, and the bandwidth determines its width. The estimated
density function f (x) can be expressed as

1 n x − xi
nh i∑
f (x) = K( ) (21)
=1
h
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 13 of 24

where n is the dimension of the dataset. Finally, the density estimate f (x) can be evaluated
at any point within the domain to obtain an estimate of the probability density at a specific
point.

6. Case Study
As shown in Figure 5, Yunnan is a sending end for southern China’s power system,
which transmits electricity to Guangdong and Guangxi through UHVDC projects. As a
hydropower-dominated sending-end power system, the power balance in Yunnan is related
to the runoff of rivers. To compare the performance of different long-term low-carbon
transformation pathways for Yunnan’s power system, three schemes are shown in Table 4,
and the maximum load and annual electricity consumption prediction data are provided in
Figure 6. As Yunnan lacks coal and natural gas resources, the CPP and NGP capacity ratios
of Yunnan’s power system are significantly lower than those of southern China’s power
system. Meanwhile, the proportion of run-of-river hydropower in the total hydropower in
Yunnan is estimated to be 60%, and the remaining 40% is provided by impoundment HPPs,
which can provide operation flexibility.

Table 4. Different long-term low-carbon transformation pathways for Yunnan’s power system.

Type of Resource/GW 2025 2030 2040 2050 2060

CPP 11.6333 11.3883 11.046 6.909 3.92
NGP 0.5 1 2 2 2
HPP (without HPS) 83 92.736 97.872 104.192 112.992
NPP 0 0 0 0 0
Scheme 1
WPP 19.245 34.5 55.75 66.95 85.375
SPP 23.5144 32.5 68.64 110.422 150.722
HPS 4.5 7 9.5 10.5 11.5
ESS 2 3.5 5 7 9
CPP 11 10 8.5 5 3
NGP 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
HPP (without HPS) 83 92.736 97.872 104.192 112.992
NPP 0 0 0 0 0
Scheme 2
WPP 23.094 41.4 66.9 80.34 102.45
SPP 28.21728 44 82.368 132.5064 180.8664
HPS 6 10 14 16 16
ESS 5 10 20 30 30
CPP 11 10 8.5 5 3
NGP 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
HPP (without HPS) 83 92.736 97.872 104.192 112.992
NPP 0 0 0 0 0
Scheme 3 WPP 21.99429 39.42857 63.71429 76.51429 97.57143
SPP 26.8736 41.90476 78.44571 126.1966 172.2537
HPS 5.71 9.52 13.33 15.24 15.24
ESS 4.76 9.52 19.05 28.57 28.57
Cross-region power capacity 4 8 12 16 16
 Energies2024,
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14 of 24

Figure6.6.The
Figure Theprediction
predictionfor
forYunnan’s
Yunnan’spower
powersystem.
system.

Thecross-regional
The cross-regionalpower
powercapacity
capacitywith
withscheme
scheme33involves
involvesbuilding
buildingnewnewpower
powertrans-
trans-
missionchannels
mission channelsfrom
fromother
otherpower-abundant
power-abundant areas
areas to to strengthen
strengthen thethe mutual
mutual power
power sup-
supply
ply ability,
ability, such such
as in as in northwest
northwest China.
China. The details
The details are provided
are provided in [41].
in [41].

6.1.
6.1.The
TheProduction
ProductionSimulation
SimulationResults
Resultsunder
underExtreme
ExtremeEvents
Events
To
Toshow
showthe thesystem
systemoperation
operationstatus under
status similar
under extreme
similar weather
extreme events
weather for different
events for dif-
power transformation pathways, the simulation results of energy production
ferent power transformation pathways, the simulation results of energy production under under extreme
events
extremeareevents
providedare from Figures
provided from7–9.Figures
During7–9.a 5-day
Duringdrought,
a 5-daythedrought,
run-of-river
the HPP power
run-of-river
output drops to 20% of the original level before the end of the
HPP power output drops to 20% of the original level before the end of the event, which event, which requires
impoundment HPPs, NGPs,
requires impoundment HPPs, and CPPsand
NGPs, to meet
CPPsthe power
to meet demand.
the Meanwhile,
power demand. energy
Meanwhile,
storage, including HPSs and ESSs, provide power support according
energy storage, including HPSs and ESSs, provide power support according to the to the state of charge.
state
In
oforder
charge.toIn
provide
order toenergy
provide backup,
energyimpoundment
backup, impoundment HPPs, NGPs, HPPs,and CPPs
NGPs, andoutput the
CPPs out-
maximum power during the drought.
put the maximum power during the drought.
The
Thedotted
dottedlinelinerepresents
represents thethe
local power
local power demand
demand on the
on Yunnan power
the Yunnan system,
power and
system,
the solid line is the sum of local power and HVDC sending power. It can be drawn from
and the solid line is the sum of local power and HVDC sending power. It can be drawn
the simulation results that under the extreme drought scenario, power loss events happen
from the simulation results that under the extreme drought scenario, power loss events
in both scheme 1 and scheme 2. In 2025, loss of load mainly happens in the afternoon when
happen in both scheme 1 and scheme 2. In 2025, loss of load mainly happens in the after-
solar power drops. And, compared with 2025, the loss of load is higher in 2030, which is
noon when solar power drops. And, compared with 2025, the loss of load is higher in 2030,
caused by insufficient energy storage and renewable power. In 2040, the daily load peak
which is caused by insufficient energy storage and renewable power. In 2040, the daily
can be balanced by solar power, but loss of load also happens during the night. After an
load peak can be balanced by solar power, but loss of load also happens during the night.
extreme event ends, load demand can be satisfied using flexible sources in cooperation
After an extreme event ends, load demand can be satisfied using flexible sources in coop-
with renewable energies.
eration with renewable energies.
In scheme 3, cross-regional power support more effectively decreases the loss of load
In scheme 3, cross-regional power support more effectively decreases the loss of load
electricity compared with the other schemes, especially in 2030 and 2040. Meanwhile, cross-
electricity compared with the other schemes, especially in 2030 and 2040. Meanwhile,
regional power support can also guarantee the supply of energy storage by decreasing
cross-regional
the power
daily electricity support can spread.
peak-to-valley also guarantee
It can bethe supply
drawn of energy
from Figure storage by decreas-
11 that power loss
ing the
event scandaily electricityusing
be mitigated peak-to-valley
renewable,spread. It can bepower
cross-regional drawnsupport
from Figure 11 thatstorage
and energy power
loss event scan
cooperation duringbe mitigated
droughts. using renewable, cross-regional power support and energy
storage
Therefore, it can during
cooperation droughts.
be concluded that due to the high penetration of HPP in the Yunnan
Therefore, it can be concluded
power system, loss of load events are that due to the
inevitable underhighextreme
penetration of HPPBut,
droughts. in the
theYunnan
loss of
power system, loss of load events are inevitable under extreme
load can be decreased by implementing reasonable power supply assurance measures. droughts. But, the loss of
load can be decreased by implementing reasonable power supply assurance measures.
Energies 2024,
Energies 2024, 17,
17, 2515
x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 23
15 of 24

(i) Scheme 1 simulation result in 2025

(ii) Scheme 1 simulation result in 2030

(iii) Scheme 1 simulation result in 2040

Figure 7.
Figure 7. The
The energy
energy production
production simulation
simulation results
results for
for scheme
scheme 11 under
under extreme
extreme drought
droughtscenario.
scenario.
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 16 of 24

Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 23

(i) Scheme 2 simulation result in 2025

(ii) Scheme 2 simulation result in 2030

(iii) Scheme 2 simulation result in 2040

Figure 8. The energy production simulation results for scheme 2 under extreme drought scenario.
Figure 8. The energy production simulation results for scheme 2 under extreme drought scenario.

(i) Scheme 3 simulation result in 2025

Energies 2024, 17, 2515 (iii) Scheme 2 simulation result in 2040 17 of 24
Figure 8. The energy production simulation results for scheme 2 under extreme drought scenario.

(i) Scheme 3 simulation result in 2025

Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 23

(ii) Scheme 3 simulation result in 2030

(iii) Scheme 3 simulation result in 2040

Figure 9. The energy production simulation results for scheme 3 under extreme drought scenario.
Figure 9. The energy production simulation results for scheme 3 under extreme drought scenario.

6.2. Probabilistic Analysis of Power Security under Extreme Events

To investigate
To investigate the
thetrend
trendininpower
powersupply
supplysecurity under
security underdifferent weather
different events,
weather the
events,
the Monte
Monte Carlo-generated
Carlo-generated scenarios
scenarios are shown
are shown in Figure
in Figure 10, and
10, and the simulation
the simulation results
results and
and
KDEKDE estimation
estimation results
results underunder drought,
drought, coldcold
wave,wave,
and and
rainyrainy scenarios
scenarios are shown
are shown in
in Fig-
Figures 11–13,
ures 11–13, respectively.
respectively. The
The statistical
statistical LOLEand
LOLE andTOLE
TOLEresults
resultsare
arepresented
presented in
in the form
of box plots, and the
the data
data beyond
beyond the
the whiskers
whiskers are
are displayed
displayed using
using points.
points. The whisker
length is specified as 10.
 To investigate the trend in power supply security under different weather events, the
Monte Carlo-generated scenarios are shown in Figure 10, and the simulation results and
KDE estimation results under drought, cold wave, and rainy scenarios are shown in Fig-
ures 11–13, respectively. The statistical LOLE and TOLE results are presented in the form
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 of box plots, and the data beyond the whiskers are displayed using points. The whisker
18 of 24
length is specified as 10.

Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 23

Figure
Figure 10.
10. The
The Monte
Monte Carlo-generated
Carlo-generated power
power supply
supply risk
risk scenarios.
scenarios.

Although the intensity and duration of specific weather events follow a gamma dis-
tribution, the generated scenarios show the differences in the different weather events’
joint probabilistic distribution between duration and intensity. The color depth reflects
the probability of occurrence of specific weather events. After inputting the generated sce-
nario’s basic information, the LOLE and TOLE results were calculated via simulation.

Figure 11.
Figure 11. The
The Monte
Monte Carlo
Carlo simulation
simulation results
results for
for different
different transformation
transformation pathways
pathways of Yunnan’s
of Yunnan’s
power system under a drought scenario.
power system under a drought scenario.

The simulation and KDE estimation results both show that with the growth in re-
newable energy penetration and the decrease in controllable power sources, the power
supply risks due to extreme weather events also increase. Among the different extreme
weather events, drought is the main threat to power supply before 2030, and the three
power transformation pathway schemes all lead to loss of load. However, compared with
scheme 1, which has more fired power plant capacity, scheme 2, which has more renewa-
ble power sources and energy storage capacity, can effectively reduce the LOLE and
TOLE, but the distribution ranges of LOLE and TOLE grow in the mid to long term. Mean-
while, both the LOLE and TOLE in scheme 3 are lower than those in scheme 2 and scheme
1, which show that a larger cross-regional power exchange capacity significantly elevates
Energies 2024,
Energies 2024,17,
17,2515
x FOR PEER REVIEW 19
19 of 23
of 24

Figure 12.
12. The Monte Carlo simulation
simulation results for
for different
different transformation
transformation pathways of Yunnan’s
power system under a cold wave scenario.
power system under a cold wave scenario.

Therefore, the
Although afterintensity
the Monte Carlo
and simulation
duration and KDE
of specific analysis,
weather the trend
events followinathe influ-
gamma
ence of different
distribution, extreme weather
the generated events
scenarios show onthe
power supply security
differences was drawn.
in the different Theevents’
weather power
joint
supplyprobabilistic distributioneffect
security enhancement between
of theduration
remaining and intensity. The
controllable powercolor depth
sources is reflects
limited
the
for probability
the studied of occurrence
case, which isofrelated
specificto weather events.
the current power After inputting
source the in
structure generated
Yunnan
scenario’s
province, basic
whichinformation,
is dominated thebyLOLE and TOLEAnd,
hydropower. results were calculated
installing via simulation.
more renewable energy
The simulation
and energy storage canandalso
KDE estimation
improve results both
the system’s powershow that with
security level the growth in the
by increasing re-
newable energy penetration and the decrease in controllable power sources,
diversity of the power sources. Finally, cross-regional power support is an effective and the power
supply risks due
cost-efficient waytopfextreme
enhancingweather events power
the system’s also increase.
securityAmong the different
level, which extreme
can significantly
weather
decreaseevents,
the LOLEdrought is the for
and TOLE main threat weather
different to powerevents.
supplyAbefore
similar2030, and thecan
conclusion three
be
power
found intransformation
[42]. pathway schemes all lead to loss of load. However, compared with
scheme 1, which has more fired power plant capacity, scheme 2, which has more renewable
power sources and energy storage capacity, can effectively reduce the LOLE and TOLE,
but the distribution ranges of LOLE and TOLE grow in the mid to long term. Meanwhile,
both the LOLE and TOLE in scheme 3 are lower than those in scheme 2 and scheme 1,
which show that a larger cross-regional power exchange capacity significantly elevates the
emergency power support ability. For LOLE, the value for scheme 1 under the drought
scenario increases from 0.04 GWh to 35.4 GWh from 2025 to 2050, and the value for scheme
2 for the same scenario increases from 0.01 GWh to 7.7 GWh from 2025 to 2040, and then
drops to 0.76 GWh. In scheme 3, the LOLE remains stable, lower than 0.015 GWh, and
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 20 of 24

the
Energies 2024, 17, x FOR PEER REVIEW TOLE value for scheme 3 shows a similar trend. Additionally, the maximum20LOLE of 23
and TOLE values in scheme 3 are also the lowest among the three transformation pathway
schemes, which indicates a higher power security level.

Figure 13. The

Figure 13. The Monte
MonteCarlo
Carlosimulation
simulationresults
results
of of
thethe different
different transformation
transformation pathways
pathways for Yun-
for Yunnan’s
nan’s
powerpower
systemsystem
underunder
a rain ascenario.
rain scenario.

7. Conclusions
Therefore, after the Monte Carlo simulation and KDE analysis, the trend in the in-
fluence
Thisofpaper
different extreme
proposed a weather
long-termevents on powerrisk
power-supply supply securitymethod
evaluation was drawn.
basedThe
on
power supply security enhancement effect of the remaining controllable
probabilistic production simulations, in which we applied a Copula-based Monte power sources
Carlo
is limitedscenario
weather for the studied case,
generation whichand
method is related to thesimulation
production current power source structure
to investigate in
the influ-
Yunnan province, which is dominated by hydropower. And, installing
ence of extreme weather on power supply security. The following conclusions were more renewable
energy and energy storage can also improve the system’s power security level by increasing
drawn:
the diversity of the power sources. Finally, cross-regional power support is an effective and
(1) The proposed scenario generation method can simulate different weather events
cost-efficient way pf enhancing the system’s power security level, which can significantly
through appropriate Copula function selection and related parameter regulation.
decrease the LOLE and TOLE for different weather events. A similar conclusion can be
And, the generated power supply risk scenarios provide basic information for ran-
found in [42].
dom power input regulation under extreme events, revealing the power shortage
level during long-term power transformation under specific extreme weather events.
7. Conclusions
(2) The power production simulation method constructed in this study considers the in-
This paper proposed a long-term power-supply risk evaluation method based on
fluence of
probabilistic extreme weather
production on random
simulations, in whichpower
we sources.
applied aThe higher penetration
Copula-based of re-
Monte Carlo
newable energies deteriorates the system’s power regulation ability with more un-
balanced power, while power curtailment also grows due to having insufficient flex-
ible sources.
(3) The case study of Yunnan’s power system showed that the main power shortage
threat is drought, which decreases the power output of the dominant power source:
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 21 of 24

weather scenario generation method and production simulation to investigate the influence
of extreme weather on power supply security. The following conclusions were drawn:
(1) The proposed scenario generation method can simulate different weather events
through appropriate Copula function selection and related parameter regulation. And,
the generated power supply risk scenarios provide basic information for random
power input regulation under extreme events, revealing the power shortage level
during long-term power transformation under specific extreme weather events.
(2) The power production simulation method constructed in this study considers the
influence of extreme weather on random power sources. The higher penetration
of renewable energies deteriorates the system’s power regulation ability with more
unbalanced power, while power curtailment also grows due to having insufficient
flexible sources.
(3) The case study of Yunnan’s power system showed that the main power shortage
threat is drought, which decreases the power output of the dominant power source:
hydropower plants. Meanwhile, the power shortages will overall grow with the
retirement of fossil fuel plants, while energy storage will play a critical role in future
power supply under extreme weather events, especially long-duration energy storage.
(4) Compared with the power transformation scheme involving fossil fuel power plant
life extension, in scheme 3, which involves larger cross-regional power capacity, can
significantly reduce the LOLE and TOLE under different extreme weather scenarios.
The case also validated that even large sending-end power systems will experience
power shortages under extreme weather events, and power support from other
regions will be a more cost-efficient and environmentally friendly method compared
with retaining more fossil fuel power plants, as the construction and maintenance
costs of power transmission lines is lower than that of extending the life of fossil fuel
power plants.
Additionally, the following aspects of the proposed long-term power supply risk
evaluation method can be further update to perform more accurate and comprehensive
evaluation under different extreme weather events:
(1) Due to the frequency of the occurrence of extreme weather being affected by multiple
factors, such as natural climate patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric circu-
lation, land use changes and so on, more studies should be carried out to investigate
the influence of climate on power systems with high renewable penetration. In China,
the regional power systems most likely to be affected are the northwestern power sys-
tem, which has high penetration of renewables, and the southwestern power system,
which is dominated by hydropower, such as those in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces.
(2) The proposed extreme weather scenario generation method can be extended to more
complicated scenarios, such as long-term drought and low-wind weather, which can
cause larger power shortages due to low power output of hydropower and wind
power. Meanwhile, Copula functions can also be replicated using a mixed Copula
function, which can increase the accuracy of the results. It is noteworthy that the
accuracy of the proposed method is high, which is related to the data quality, and
high-spatiotemporal-resolution weather data, such as GIS data, would be preferred to
improve the evaluation quality.
(3) If the proposed method is applied to smaller-area power systems, more constraints
should be considered, such as unit commitment, availability of units, power source
ramping capability, and power grid congestion. Power grid congestion could be
the most difficult constraint, due to the status of each power transmission line being
strongly related to the power system’s operation status, and the increased randomness
caused by the higher penetration of renewables would make the whole model more
complicated to solve.
(4) The simulation results indicated that cross-regional power interconnection is critical
for the future power grid in China, and sending-end power system interconnection
projects can ensure increased mutual aid among regions, such as between northwest
Energies 2024, 17, 2515 22 of 24

and southwest China. The technical scheme is the key for transregional power system
interconnection, which includes three main schemes: AC interconnection, HVDC
interconnection based on line-commutated converters (LCCs), and HVDC intercon-
nection based on voltage source converters. Further studies should be carried out for
choosing the most cost-efficient interconnection scheme.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Y.W. and F.C.; methodology, J.H.; validation, J.H., F.C. and
H.S.; formal analysis, H.S.; writing—original draft preparation, J.H. and F.C.; writing—review and
editing, F.C.; supervision, Y.W.; funding acquisition, J.H. All authors have read and agreed to the
published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the Science and Technology Project of China Renewable Energy
Engineering Institute “Research on the Low-carbon Transformation Pathway of New Power Systems
with Power Supply Risk Constraints Consideration” grant number ZY-KJZN-20230008, Major Science
and Technology Special Funding of China Electric Power Construction Group “Research on Key
Technologies of New Power Systems Based on NET + GRID + NET” grant number ZS-KJSJ-20210001,
and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation “Research on the Path and Resilience Assessment of
Power Transformation from the Perspective of ‘Industrial Chain + Supply Chain’ System” grant
number 2023M733322. The authors are grateful to professors of engineering Yigo Zhang and Songxu
Xin from the China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute for their technical guidance.
Data Availability Statement: The original contributions presented in the study are included in the
article, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding authors.
Conflicts of Interest: Authors Jianzu Hu and Yuefeng Wang was employed by the company Power
Construction Corporation of China. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted
in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential
conflict of interest.

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