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Hypothesis Testing 1

1) This chapter discusses how to test hypotheses about population parameters by examining sample statistics. Specifically, it focuses on testing a null hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis. 2) A null hypothesis (H0) states that a parameter is equal to a constant value, while an alternative hypothesis (Ha) states that the parameter is different from the constant. The test attempts to find evidence for Ha over H0. 3) Common tests include the one-sample z-test, where the null hypothesis states the population mean is equal to a value and the alternative hypothesis specifies whether the mean is greater than or less than that value. The z-statistic and p-value are calculated to determine if

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Nguyen Son Tung
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70 views2 pages

Hypothesis Testing 1

1) This chapter discusses how to test hypotheses about population parameters by examining sample statistics. Specifically, it focuses on testing a null hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis. 2) A null hypothesis (H0) states that a parameter is equal to a constant value, while an alternative hypothesis (Ha) states that the parameter is different from the constant. The test attempts to find evidence for Ha over H0. 3) Common tests include the one-sample z-test, where the null hypothesis states the population mean is equal to a value and the alternative hypothesis specifies whether the mean is greater than or less than that value. The z-statistic and p-value are calculated to determine if

Uploaded by

Nguyen Son Tung
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 19

Testing Hypotheses
When we calculate a condence interval we are interested in estimating a population parameter. Sometimes, however, instead of estimating a parameter we want to test a specic theory about the population. For example, you might want to test whether the mean of the population is equal to a specic value. In this section we will talk about using sample statistics to test specic hypotheses about the population. The rst thing you do is to write a mathematical statement of the theory you want to test. Since this is a theory about the population, your statement will be written in terms of population parameters. You write your statement in terms of a null hypothesis H0 and an alternative hypothesis Ha . Usually H0 is a statement that a parameter is equal to a constant (typically zero) while Ha states that the parameter is dierent from the constant. You typically write these so that your theory says that Ha is true. The test we will use attempts to nd evidence for Ha over H0 , so the two hypotheses must be disjoint. Tests of this sort (pitting a null hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis) are very common in statistics. Many times we are interested in determining if the sample mean is equal to zero. One set of hypotheses that would test this is H0 : = 0 (19.1) Ha : > 0. Notice that the hypotheses cant both be true at the same time. The alternative hypothesis > 0 is called one-sided because it only considers possibilities on one side of the null hypothesis. It is also possible to have two-sided alternative hypotheses, such as <> 0. Once we have decided on our hypotheses we examine our sample data to determine how unlikely the results would be if H0 is true, and if the observed ndings are in the direction suggested by Ha . We quantify the result of our test by calculating a p-value. This is the probability, assuming that H0 is true, that the observed outcome would be at least as extreme as that found in the data. The lower the p-value, the more condent we are in rejecting the null hypothesis. Exactly how you calculate the p-value for your test depends on what your null and alternative hypotheses are. For example, think about hypotheses about the value of the population mean. We know that the sample mean follows a normal distribution centered on the population mean. If we determine how many standard deviations there are between the sample mean and value specied under H0 , we can look up the probability that a population with a mean equal to the H0 value would produce a sample with a mean at least as extreme as that observed in the sample. This method is called a one-sample z test. The specic steps to perform a one-sample z test are: 32

1. Calculate the sample mean y . 2. Calculate the one-sample z statistic z= y 0


n

(19.2)

where 0 is the mean assumed in the null hypothesis, is the known population standard deviation, and n is the sample size. 3. Look up the p-value associated with z in a normal distribution table. If you are performing a two-sided test you need to multiply this value by 2 (because you have to consider the probability of getting extreme results of the opposite sign). Once we calculate a p-value for a test we have to decide whether the probability is low enough to conclude that the null hypothesis is unlikely. Before analyzing the data you should choose a value that you would accept as indicating that the null is probably false. This value is called your signicance level, and you say that your results are statistically signicant if the p-value is less than your signicance level. The exact signicance level you should use will depend on the eld that you are in. In psychology we typically use either .05 or .01. If the results are statistically signicant we say that we reject H0 in favor of Ha . Otherwise we say that we fail to reject H0 .

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