Energy &

Climate
2024-25
Joana Portugal Pereira, professor
DEM/IST/ULisboa
(joana.portugal@tecnico.ulisboa.pt)

Energy & Sustainability I P2 2024/25

 Lecture VII
Translating Global Milestones into Sectoral
Mitigation Targets and Needs for 2030, 2035 and
2050: Opportunities and challenges
Introduction – Setting the Context
• Paris Agreement (2015): Limit global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to stay at
1.5°C
• Paris aligned mitigation pathways require net CO2 emissions by mid-century
supported by immediate reduction of GHG emissions
• Paris aligned mitigation pathways suggest deep reduction of GHG emissions up to
residual levels that should be compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies

Deep transformations in the energy Carbon dioxide removal (CDR)

sector-> today and next lectures strategies -> lecture 16 3
Intended learning objectives

o Describe the clear energy technology transformations required to achieve the Paris
Agreement temperature goal (ILO1)

o Understand the enabling conditions (investment, innovation and societal changes)

for achieving sectoral mitigation targets by 2030, 2035 and mid-century (ILO2)

o Recognise the opportunities and challenges for the energy sector under these
pathways (ILO3)

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 Today’s agenda

Clear technology energy Enabling conditions Opportunities and Group activity

transformations challenges

Source of images: https://www.flaticon.com 5

Questions for today

o How can global mitigation pathways be translated into measurable emission reduction
targets for key sectors?

o What investment, innovation, and societal transformations are required to achieve

sectoral mitigation targets by 2030, 2035 and 2050?

o What opportunities and challenges do energy sectors face in aligning with mitigation
pathways?

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Questions for today

o How can global mitigation pathways be translated into measurable emission

reduction targets for key sectors?

o What investment, innovation, and societal transformations are required to achieve

sectoral mitigation targets by 2030, 2035 and 2050?

o What opportunities and challenges do energy sectors face in aligning with mitigation
pathways?

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Deep transformations in the energy sector are required
to achieve net zero CO2 emissions (NZE) by 2050
• Radical change in the energy mix → shift to renewable
and other clean energy sources and technologies

• Improvements in energy efficiency

• Energy conservation efforts

• Large scale electrification of end-use sectors

• Fossil fuel demand drop from 65% of final energy in

2021 to 55% in 2030 and 15% by 2050, but still required
(non-energy purposes & HtA sectors)

• End-use bioenergy and other low carbon fuels (eg H2

and e-fuels) rises modestly but essential to decarbonize
aviation, shipping and heavy industry

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Source: IEA, ETP 2023.
Scaling up REs is crucial for the decarbonisation of the
world's energy system
• In the last decade, installed capacity of PV and Wind energy 7-
and 4-fold increased, respectively.

• Power generation could decarbonise much faster with scaled up

deployment of RE and storage.

• In 2050, wind may supply more than 1/3 of total electricity

demand; whereas solar PV may supply ¼ of total electricity
demand -> 10x increase, compared to 2017 levels.

• Both technologies are mature and fast decreasing in costs, more

than for many other mitigation options.

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Source: IRENA 2020.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a versatile technology with
potential to deliver reliable, dispatchable power to support
global decarbonisation
• CSP is a technology that generates electricity
using heat from concentrated solar irradiation.
• Mirrors reflect sunlight onto a receiver where
heat is collected by a thermal energy carrier:
Heat is used directly (e.g., water/steam
systems) or transferred via a secondary circuit
to power a turbine.
• Unlike PV solar and wind energy sources, CSP
can provide baseload energy to the grid.
• Installed capacity ~8.2 GW (Spain, USA, China,
MENA)
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Source: Gonzalo et al 2019.
Costs of RE have decline significantly in this decade

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Source: IRENA 2020.
 Fastest five-year period of growth in the share of solar and
wind in electricity generation

•Rapid change in energy systems is possible, as evidenced by individual

countries.
•Denmark, Lithuania, and Uruguay: Achieved faster solar and wind uptake
than required for 1.5°C-compatible 2030 benchmarks through a mix of
policies, including regulatory interventions and incentives.
•China, USA, Brazil, India, and Germany: Installed over 60% of global
renewable power capacity in 2023, advancing technologies and lowering
costs.

Source: UNEP EGR 2024.

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Fastest eight-year period of reductions in the share of coal in
electricity generation
•Significant progress has been made in phasing
out coal-fired power generation:
•Greece and the UK: Transitioned from 36%
coal in 2022 to less than 4% projected for
2030, exceeding global 1.5°C benchmarks.
•Other countries with steep declines in coal
use: Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Israel,
Romania, Germany, USA, and Chile.

Source: UNEP EGR 2024.

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Electrification of end-use sectors will become a large
contribution to the final energy consumption

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Source: IRENA 2020.
Bioenergy is key to decarbonise the transport sector
Offers immediate pathways
Can utilise existing fuel
to reduce emissions in
distribution infrastructure,
transport sectors that are
reducing transition costs.
hard to electrify.

Long-term option for

Biofuels could supply 20–
decarbonising long-haul
30% of transport energy by
flights where batteries are
2050.
impractical.

Sustainable feedstocks Co-benefits: rural

(e.g., agricultural residues, development, waste
waste oils). management improvement.

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Shipping sector

16 Figure credits to my colleague Eduardo Muller-Casseres.

Aviation and shipping fuel options
represented

Source: Müller-Casseres E., Szklo A, Fontes C, Carvalho F, Portugal-Pereira J, Baptista LB, Maia P, Rochedo PRR, Draeger R, R Schaeffer (2022). Are there synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping? An
integrated perspective for the case of Brazil. iScience 25, 105248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.
17 2022.105248
 Key decarbonisation
solutions in difficult to
decarbonise sectors

Source: IRENA 2020.

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Questions for today

o How can global mitigation pathways be translated into measurable emission reduction
targets for key sectors?

o What innovation, investment and societal transformations are required to achieve

sectoral mitigation targets by 2030, 2035 and 2050?

o What opportunities and challenges do energy sectors face in aligning with mitigation
pathways?

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Most clean tec options present a low technological readiness
levels (TRLs)

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Source: IEA 2021: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide?layout=list&selectedTechID=24e41ca8
 5 Clean Tec characteristics that favour more rapid
innovation cycles or faster learning curves
Attributes Description Past examples Future Examples
Small units allow for quick prototyping and testing before factory construction;.
Small enough unit size to •PV •Heat pumps
Global demand enables the establishment of multiple factories;
be mass produced •Li-ion batteries •Fuel cells
Industrial competition accelerates product turnover.
•Solid sorbent-based direct air capture
Modularity offers benefits similar to small unit size;
•Electrolytic hydrogen routes for chemicals
Applicable to larger units that cannot be mass-produced but can be standardised and •PV
Modularity added sequentially; •Aluminium smelting
production
•Small modular nuclear reactors
Reduces capital requirements for each incremental addition.
•Standardised building retrofits
•Autonomous, connected, electric and
Technologies should initially target niche markets with consumers willing to pay a •Passenger cars
shared vehicles
Offers services valued by premium for specific benefits; •Smart thermostats
•Building-integrated PV
consumers Early adopters often value convenience, enjoyment, and reputational benefits, •LEDs
•Decentralised energy trading
justifying higher costs. •Micromobility
• Lab-based meat
•Combined cycle gas turbines (from jet
•CCUS (from oil and gas exploration,
turbines)
chemical catalysis and gas separation)
Transferable know-out •PV (from semiconductors)
Collaboration between researchers and engineers across sectors reduces the need for •Batteries, fuel cells and electrolysers (from
•Li-ion for EVs (from Li-ion for consumer
(strong synergies with dedicated energy R&D; each other and other electrochemical
products)
technology advances Advances in one application often benefit unrelated applications, enhancing technologies)
•LEDs for lighting (from LEDs for
technological viability. •Biofuels (from health and agriculture)
elsewhere) electronics)
•Smart, connected energy technologies
•Offshore wind and geothermal (from oil
(from sensors and data communication)
and gas)

•Certain biofuels, e.g. hydrotreated

Can be used as a drop-in New technologies are adopted more quickly when they require no changes to existing •Hydrogen-based synthetic fuels
vegetable oil
equipment or infrastructure; •Electric vehicles using existing road and
replacement or bolt-on •Biomethane
A “drop-in” replacement is fully compatible with the current means of delivering an electricity infrastructure
•Catalytic converter
device energy service. •Drop-in biofuels
•Desulphurisation

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Source: Own elaboration, based on IEA (2022).
Investments in key sectors are insufficient to reach 1.5C
trajectory needs

22
Source: IRENA 2020.
Clean energy investment per capita varies widely among
regions

23
Source: IRENA 2020.
Questions for today

o How can global climate agreements be translated into measurable emission reduction
targets for key sectors?

o What investment, innovation, and societal transformations are required to achieve

sectoral mitigation targets by 2030 and 2035?

o What challenges and opportunities do energy sectors face in aligning with IPCC
mitigation pathways?

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Substituting oil and gas is not trivial

Figure credicts: Eduardo Muller-Casseres, 25

The world needs more energy to ensure equity for future generations

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Source: CarbonBrief 2022; IPCC WG III AR6 2022.
Committed CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel and consuming infrastructures is higher
than what is required to fulfil the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement

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Source: UNEP EGR 2023; UNEP EPG 2023.
 Changing
lifestyles is
challenge

Figure from UNEP EGR 2020.

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The costs of renewables and BEVs has fallen steadly and their
use continue to rise

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Source: IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM 2022
Green investments create more jobs than fossil fuel investments
By 2050, 43M jobs in
renewable energy could
be created under the 1.5°C
scenario.
Source: IRENA, 2023; WRI 2021.

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Total energy jobs rise from gains in RE, energy efficiency and
power grid supply chains and infrastructure

• Energy jobs in 2050: Grow from 87 to 100 million under

the Transforming Energy Scenario, driven by renewable
energy, efficiency, and grid flexibility.
• Regional shares: Asia leads with 60% (East Asia: 35%).
Largest gains in Southeast Asia (+81%), Oceania (+57%),
Sub-Saharan Africa (+36%), and North America (+28%).
• Sector focus: Renewable energy jobs dominate in
Southeast Asia (64%) and Latin America (62%). Energy
efficiency leads in North America (45%), and grid
flexibility in Asia (22%).

Source: IRENA 2020. 31

Almost all regions would increase GDP under a 1.5C
aligned energy transition

• EU’s standout performance: Higher-than-

average GDP growth in 2050.
• Above average: Asian countries.
• Below-average gains: Sub-Saharan Africa,
Rest of Asia, North America, and Rest of
Europe.
• Only MENA and Oceania see GDP reductions
by 2050.

Source: IRENA 2020. 32

The rapid deployment of clean technologies requires
significant demand for minerals and materials

1. Low Energy Return on

Investment (EROI)
2. Low quality of resources
3. Exposure to climate hazards
(e.g. 50% of Cu and Li mining
is in water scarcity regions)

Source: IEA 2023.

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The rapid deployment of clean technologies requires significant
demand for minerals and materials

Infrastructure needs for clean energy transition: The transport and storage of electricity, hydrogen, and CO₂ are crucial
but often overlooked elements.
•Power transmission lines to increase by 185%, and distribution lines by 165% from 2021-2050, with 85% of additions in
emerging economies.
•Low-emission hydrogen trade to cover over 20% of global demand by 2030.
•CO₂ storage capacity to rise from 42 million tonnes per year to 1.2Gt by 2030, requiring significant expansion of transport
and storage infrastructure.
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Source: IEA 2022; Lee et al 2019: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109789.
 Global production of critical and bulk materials is highly
concentrated

•China's Key Role: Dominates processing: 90% of rare earth elements, 60-70% of lithium and cobalt, 30% of nickel; Leads in
manufacturing for clean energy technologies like EV batteries and wind turbine magnets.
•Other Significant Players:
•Indonesia: Largest nickel miner (40% of global output) and major refiner (30%).
•Chile: Processes one-third of global lithium.
•Democratic Republic of Congo: Mines over 70% of cobalt but refines <1%.

Source: IEA ETP 2023. 35

China's dominance and regional trends underscore supply
chain vulnerabilities critical to clean energy transitions

Source: IEA ETP 2023. 36

Volatile material markets may rise costs

Source: IEA ETP 2023. 37

Nearly 70% of energy transition minerals are on or near land that
qualifies as Indigenous peoples’ or peasant land and entail conflicts
with local ecosystem services.

Source: Owen et al. 2022. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00994-6

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 Group activity Current policies trajectory

• Objective: explore the impact of strategies

proposed by the EN-ROADS simulator on
global temperature by 2100 and try to reach
1.5C while considering technical, social, and
economic feasibility.
• What to do:
1) Find a group of 3-4 members
2) Discuss the key levers available in the 1.5C aligned trajectory
simulator
3) Experiment with combinations of policy and
investment changes
4) Find your most desired solution to reach
1.5C
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 Take-away questions
1. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal requires large-scale adoption of RE technologies (solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy), electrification
across sectors to supply ~50% of total energy demand, and the integration of energy storage and grid flexibility solutions.
2. Meeting mitigation targets requires fostering technological innovation s(e.g., smart grid, advanced batteries, scaling EV charging networks,
sustainable fuels) and addressing societal transitions, such as behaviour shifts and skills training for a low-carbon workforce.
3. By 2030, cumulative investments of USD 9.6 trillion are necessary to scale up renewable power capacity, with an annual increase in clean energy
investments to USD 3.2 trillion (around 2% of global GDP).
4. A net-zero energy system offers economic growth opportunities through green jobs, reduced health costs, and increased energy access.
Electrification of transport, innovations in bioenergy, and widespread renewable energy adoption can position the energy sector as a leader in global
climate action while improving resilience.
5. Key obstacles include supply chain vulnerabilities for critical materials, upfront costs of clean technologies, and uneven regional progress due to
resource disparities. In addition, balancing economic growth with emission reductions and addressing potential regional GDP losses in some sectors is
critical.
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Any
questions?

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Thanks!
2024-25
Joana Portugal Pereira, professor
DEM/IST/ULisboa
(joana.portugal@tecnico.ulisboa.pt)

Energy & Sustainability I P2 2024/25