12.

4 Using Tree Diagrams

to Calculate Probability
GOAL
Use tree diagrams to determine all possible outcomes.

Learn about the Math

Mei has three sisters
and no brothers.

? What are the

chances that a
family with four
children will have
all girls?

Example 1: Using a tree diagram to analyze outcomes

Determine the probability that a family with four children will have all girls.

Rana’s Solution

I listed all the possibilities in a tree

diagram. Each child will be either a
boy or a girl.

There are 16 possible outcomes. In only

one of the outcomes are all the children
girls.
P(4 girls) 
1

16

NEL
426 Chapter 12
 Example 2: Using a tree diagram to analyze outcomes
Determine the probability that a family with four children will have
two girls and two boys.

Omar’s Solution

I used Rana’s tree diagram. There are 16 possible outcomes.

In six of these outcomes, there are two girls and two boys.
P(2 girls and 2 boys) 
6
or
3

16 8

Reflecting
1. a) How does a tree diagram help you list all the possible outcomes?
b) How does a tree diagram help you calculate the probability of an event?
c) Explain why a tree diagram is an organized list.

2. a) How many outcomes are possible for a family of five children? How
does this compare with the outcomes for a family of four children?
b) How many outcomes are possible for a family of six children?
Explain what you did.

3. How can you use the number of branches of a tree diagram to calculate the
total number of branches in the diagram? Explain why this makes sense.

Work with the Math

Example 3: Determining the probability of travelling to the end of a maze

A small robot is put at the entrance to this maze. The robot stops
when it comes to a dead end. At each “gate” in the maze, the robot
randomly turns left or right. What is the probability of the robot
reaching the exit?
Solution

Put a letter at each gate and draw a tree The tree diagram shows that seven routes are
diagram to try each possibility. possible. Only one of these routes leads to the exit.
1
P(reaching the exit) 


7

NEL
Probability 427
 Example 4: Using a tree diagram to determine all the possible outcomes
The Belleville Bills and the Arnprior Allstars are in a playoff series. The first team
to win two games will win the series. The two teams have an equal probability of
winning any game. What is the probability of the series lasting three games?

Solution

Draw a tree diagram to represent the possible results of the series.

The tree diagram shows that there are six possible outcomes.
• Team A wins games 1 and 2, so game 3 • Team A wins games 2 and 3.
is not played. • Team B wins games 1 and 3.
• Team A wins games 1 and 3. • Team B wins games 1 and 2, so game 3
• Team B wins games 2 and 3. is not played.
In four of these outcomes, the series lasts three games.
P(series lasts 3 games) 
4
or 2



6 3

5. Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible

Checking outcomes of tossing a coin three times.
4. Ioanna sells irises and lilies in bunches of
four. If she randomly selects the flowers, Practising
determine the probability that a bunch will
have one iris and three lilies. 6. Use a tree diagram to determine the
probability of tossing a total of 7 using
two regular dice.

7. Braydon wants a triple-scoop ice cream

cone. In his freezer, he has strawberry,
maple walnut, and blueberry ripple ice
cream.
a) Use a tree diagram to determine how
many possible combinations Braydon
can choose.
b) What is the probability that at least one
scoop will be strawberry?

NEL
428 Chapter 12
 8. Omar has three 11. a) Rosa has three blouses, three skirts,
T-shirts: one red, one and three jackets. How many different
green, and one yellow. outfits can she put together?
He has two pairs of b) Asha has three blouses, two skirts, and
shorts: one red and four jackets. Can she put together more
one black. Use a tree or fewer outfits than Rosa? Explain.
diagram to answer
the following 12. George is the third of five children. He has
questions. two older sisters (S) and two younger
brothers (B). This arrangement can be
written as SSBBB.
a) Use a tree diagram to determine the
probability of a family with five
children beginning with two sisters.
b) Is the probability of a family of five
beginning with two sisters the same as
the probability of a family of five
ending with two sisters? Explain.
a) How many different outfits can Omar c) What is the probability of the sixth
put together? child being a boy?
b) What is the probability of Omar’s 13. Leonard places a small robot at the
outfits including a red T-shirt or entrance to this maze. Each choice of
red shorts? direction is random. The robot stops when
it comes to a dead end. What is the
9. Takumi tosses these coins, one after the other. probability of the robot reaching the exit?

a) In how many different ways can they

land?
b) What is the probability of at least three Extending
coins landing on Heads?
14. Marian wants to buy a double scoop of ice
10. The combination for a lock uses three of cream. The ice cream shop has 23 flavours,
the digits 1, 2, 3, and 4. which can be served in a regular cone, a
a) How many three-digit combinations can sugar cone, or a dish. How many different
the lock have? Explain your answer. combinations can Marian order?
b) How many three-digit combinations
can the lock have, if the same digit
cannot be used more than once?

NEL
Probability 429