DCF Updated
DCF Updated
Assets 932.1
Assets 948.0
Assets 1226.8
Revenue growth %
Selected Case 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Best Case 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Base Case 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Worst Case 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Cogs as a % of Revenues
Selected Case -48% -46% -45% -46% -46% -46%
Best Case -48% -46% -45% -45% -45% -45%
Base Case -48% -46% -45% -46% -46% -46%
Worst Case -48% -46% -45% -47% -47% -47%
Opex as a % of Revenues
Selected Case -41% -42% -35% -39% -39% -39%
Best Case -41% -42% -35% -35% -35% -35%
Base Case -41% -42% -35% -39% -39% -39%
Worst Case -41% -42% -35% -41% -41% -41%
2.00% 2.00%
3.00% 3.00%
2.00% 2.00%
1.00% 1.00%
-46% -46%
-45% -45%
-46% -46%
-47% -47%
-39% -39%
-35% -35%
-39% -39%
-41% -41%
35% 35%
Balance Sheet
Forecast
$ in mln 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18
Trade Receivables 143.9 154.8 169.3 162.1 165.3
Inventory 85.0 92.0 110.0 98.7 100.7
PP&E 632.5 632.5 659.5 673.6 684.3
Cash 24.8 21.8 220.0 388.4 519.5
Other assets 45.9 46.9 68.0 55.6 56.7
Assets 932.1 948.0 1,226.8 1,378.4 1,526.6
Check - - - - -
Forecast
31-Dec-19 31-Dec-20 31-Dec-21
168.6 172.0 175.4
102.7 104.8 106.9
694.3 703.7 712.4
653.8 791.2 931.5
57.8 59.0 60.2
1,677.4 1,830.7 1,986.4
- - -
Fixed Assets Rollforward
Forecast
$ in mln 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19
Beginning PP&E 632.5 632.5 659.5 673.6 684.3
D&A (44.0) (41.0) (44.3) -45.3 -46.0
Capex 44.0 68.0 58.4 56.0 56.0
Ending PP&E 632.5 632.5 659.5 673.6 684.3 694.3
-6.7% -6.7%
8.9% 8.9%
Financial Liabilities
Forecast
$ in mln 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19
Beginning Debt 615.8 610.4 605 565.2 521.8
New debt 0 0.0 - - -
Principal repayment 5.4 5.4 (39.8) (43.4) (47.3)
Ending Debt 615.8 610.4 605 565.2 521.8 474.5
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6
Payment (94.3) (94.3) (94.3) (94.3) (94.3) (94.3)
Interest (54.4) (50.9) (47.0) (42.7) (38.1) (33.0)
Principal repayment (39.8) (43.4) (47.3) (51.6) (56.2) (61.3)
Residual debt 565.2 521.8 474.5 422.9 366.7 305.4
Forecast
31-Dec-20 31-Dec-21
474.5 422.9
- -
(51.6) (56.2)
422.9 366.7
7 8 9 10
(94.3) (94.3) (94.3) (94.3)
(27.5) (21.5) (14.9) (7.8)
(66.8) (72.8) (79.3) (86.5)
238.6 165.8 86.5 -
Equity Schedule
Forecast
$ in mln 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19
Beginning Equity 485.3 668.5 857.8
Increase of Capital - - -
Net Income/(Loss) 229.0 236.6 244.6
Dividends (45.8) (47.3) (48.9)
Ending Equity 485.3 668.5 857.8 1053.5
20.0% 20.0%
Cash Flow
Forecast
$ in mln 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA 451 460 469 479 488
Interest expenses (54) (51) (47) (43) (38)
Taxes (123) (127) (132) (136) (141)
Change in Trade Receivables 7 (3) (3) (3) (3)
Change in Inventory 11 (2) (2) (2) (2)
Change in Trade Payables 2 1 1 1 2
Change in Other assets 12 (1) (1) (1) (1)
Change in Other liabilities 6 1 1 1 1
Capex (58) (56) (56) (56) (56)
Operating Cash Flow 254 222 231 240 249
Dividends (46) (47) (49) (51) (52)
Change in Financial Liabilities (40) (43) (47) (52) (56.2)
Change in Provisions - - - - -
Change in Equity - - - 0 (0)
Net Cash Flow 168 131 134 137 140
31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19
Debt 615.8 610.4 605 565.1788 521.7738 474.4623
Equity 167.5 196.7 485.3 668.5062 857.7755 1053.486
Cost of Debt 9%
Cost of Equity
CAPM 40.0%
Market Return 30%
Risk Free Rate 20%
Beta 2
WACC
25.19% 20.01%
74.81% 79.99%
1678.834 1832.144
WACC= Weight of Debt x Cost of Debt (1-t) +Weight of Equity x Cost of Equity
ght of Equity x Cost of Equity