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Forecasting

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views20 pages

Forecasting

Uploaded by

emfatima25
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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O

INCOME STATEMENT
$ in min 2020 2021 2022
Revenue 2226989 2,546,276 2,851,733
CGS -1627818 -1,701,192 -1,925,157
Gross Profit 599,171 845,084 926,576
Operating Expenses -464867 -464,046 -615,914
EBITDA 134,304 381,038 310,662
D&A -89549 -96041 -99825
EBIT 44,755 284,997 210,837
Interest Expenses -72708 -18854 -6665
EBT -27,953 266,143 204,172
Taxes -16491 -83204 -132832
EAT -44,444 182,939 71,340
Other Income 45961 107351 60632
Net Income 1,517 290,290 131,972

Revenue Growth % 14.34% 12.00%


CGS as a % of Revenues 73.10% 66.81% 67.51%
Operating Exp as % of Revenue 20.87% 18.22% 21.60%
Taxes
OTSUKA PAK
Forecast
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
3,035,085 3,163,868 3,456,573 3,776,359 4,125,729 4,507,421
-2,391,174 -2,586,884 -2,543,776 -2,779,113 -3,036,223 -3,317,120
643,911 576,984 912,798 997,245 1,089,505 1,190,301
-709,914 -642,536 -721,701 -788,469 -861,414 -941,108
-66,003 -65,552 191,097 208,776 228,091 249,193
-97921 -88967 -133875.26 -156285.983 -152309.598 -149543.228
-163,924 -154,519 57,221 52,490 75,781 99,650
-64223 -102808 -2566.2 -2467.346 -2348.7212 -2206.37144
-228,147 -257,327 54,655 50,023 73,433 97,443
-21145 -23735 -15850.007 -14506.5687 -21295.4487 -28258.512
-249,292 -281,062 38,805 35,516 52,137 69,185
101874 187332 20214 20526.346 20857.7407 21205.48077
-147,418 -93,730 59,019 56,042 72,995 90,390

6.43% 4.24% 9.25% 9.25% 9.25% 9.25%


78.78% 81.76% 73.59% 73.59% 73.59% 73.59%
23.39% 20.31% 20.88% 20.88% 20.88% 20.88%
29% 29% 29% 29%
2029
4,924,425
-3,624,003
1,300,422
-1,028,175
272,247
-147618.664
124,628
-2035.55173
122,593
-35551.8568
87,041
21565.34523
108,606

9.25%
73.59%
20.88%
29%
Ba

$ in min Jun-20
Trade Receivables 283707
Inventory 680918
PP&E 335043
Cash Bank Balances 22825
Intangible Assets 1781
Long Term Loans 8743
Long-term Deposits 1309
Deffered tax asset net 173634
Current Assets
Stores and spares 47822
Loans and Advances 61532
Trade Deposits, short term prepayments and other recievables 38124
Taxation 24843
Short term investments 0
Sales tax refundable 0
Assets 1680281
Trade Payables 530407
Provisions 0
Long term Finance 0
Deferred Govt Grant 0
Financial Liabilities 0
Current Liabilities
Current portion of long term finance 0
Current portion of deferred govt grand 0
Short Term loan from a related party 585262
Current portion of lease liability 0
Unclaimed Dividend 3188
Short term running finance 429854
Mark-up accrued 14783
Equity 116787
Liabilities & Equity 1680281

DSO 45.8621573793135
DIO
DPO
Other Assets %
Other Liabilities %

Short term loan growth%


Short term investments growth%
Balance Sheet

Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24


291385 216177 379677 160464
582233 928446 1063968 959205
297002 270910 413481 439945
44504 53211 5828 187036
1496 1876 1092 761
7583 8186 7426 7428
1337 2335 3691 3699
107785 80700 115636 127062

45943 40852 50315 44548


38911 116152 65379 64695
23180 29232 23282 34897
44072 0 54315 92367
0 0 14610 124610
0 97831 90263 47172
1485431 1845908 2288963 2293889
573517 619922 609556 623997
0 9069 0 0
31903 0 0 0
307 0 0 0
0 3092 6792 12831

16542 24661 0 0
1794 612 0 0
356550 376150 498075 951390
0 534 1268 11995
3186 1589 1765 1955
0 96062 451183 0
655 1223 22802 16026
500977 712994 697523 675695
1485431 1845908 2288964 2293889

41.1968694674104 27.2899742016521 45.034560811312 18.25835970401


123.21000804142 173.617299783862 160.18427768117 133.4863874839
121.365560148414 115.924010353441 91.770887438555 86.83764714614

-39.08% 5.50% 32.41% 91.01%


752.91%
FORECAST
Jun-25 Jun-26 Jun-27 Jun-28 Jun-29
316323.91088388 345588.6358313 377560.788503 412490.85 450652.461
1043121.1596562 1139625.574194 1245058.10024 1360244.7 1486087.84
513591.793 500524.4770568 491433.545355 485108.98 480708.987
233,303 481,868 796,061 1,190,186 1,681,483
761 761 761 761 761
7141.65 6798.03 6385.686 5890.8732 5297.09784
4253.85 4891.9275 5625.716625 6469.5741 7440.01024
127062 127062 127062 127062 127062

44548 44548 44548 44548 44548


62201.03 59208.266 55616.9492 51307.369 46135.8728
40131.55 46151.2825 53073.974875 61035.071 70190.3318
92367 92367 92367 92367 92367

47172 47172 47172 47172 47172


2531977.6994 2896565.93378 3342725.4881 3884644 4539905.3
734688.57391618 802658.3299096 876916.311818 958044.28 1046677.8
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
12336.73 11743.606 11031.8572 10177.759 9152.84037

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
1165086.2053928 1426781.725682 1747257.91389 2139717.8 2620329.9

1955 1955 1955 1955 1955


0 0 0 0 0
16026 16026 16026 16026 16026
734714.19008985 790756.6181928 863751.491921 954141.61 1062747.7
2664806.6994 3049921.27978 3516938.5748 4080062 4756889.2

32.944941046096 32.9449410461 32.9449410461 32.944941 32.944941


147.6244932476 147.6244932476 147.624493248 147.62449 147.624493
103.97452627164 103.9745262716 103.974526272 103.97453 103.974526

22.46% 22.46% 22.46% 22.46% 22.46%


752.91% 752.91% 752.91% 752.91% 752.91%
Fixed Assets Rollforward

$ in min Jun-20 Jun-21


Beginning PP&E 335043
D&A -96041
Capex 58000
Ending PP&E 335043 297002

D&A as a % of beginning PP&E


Capex as a % of beginning PP&E
Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26
297002 270910 413481 439945 513591.793
-99825 -97921 -88967 -133875.2635 -156285.98261
73733 240492 115431 207522.0565 143218.6666667
270910 413481 439945 513591.793 500524.477057

-33.61% -36.15% -21.52% -30.43% -30.43%


24.83% 88.77% 27.92% 47.17% 47.17%
FORECAST
Jun-27 Jun-28 Jun-29
500524.477056767 491433.55 485108.98417
-152309.59836837 -149543.2 -147618.66388
143218.666666667 143218.67 143218.66667
491433.5453551 485109 480708.987

-30.43% -30.43% -30.43%


47.17% 47.17% 47.17%
Financial Liabilities

$ in min Jun-20 Jun-21


Beginning Debt TRUE
New Debt
Principal repayment
Ending Debt

Interest rate after 2024 20%


Repay debt in 10 years 10
Annual payment 3060.47

Period 0 1
Payment 3060.47
Interest -2566.2
Principal repayment 494.27
Residual debt 12831 12336.73
Long Term Loans
Payment 1771.95
Interest 1485.6
Principal repayment 286.35
Residual debt 7428 7141.65
Loans and advances
Payment 15432.97
Interest 12939
Principal repayment 2493.97
Residual debt 64695 62201.03
Current portion of lease liability
Payment 2861
Interest 2399
Principal repayment 462
Residual debt 11995 11533
Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25
3092 6792 12831
3700 6039
494.27
3092 6792 12831 12336.73

2 3 4 5
3060.47 3060.47 3060.47 3060.47
-2467.346 -2348.7212 -2206.37144 -2035.551728
593.124 711.7488 854.09856 1024.918272
11743.606 11031.8572 10177.75864 9152.840368

1771.95 1771.95 1771.95 1771.95


1428.33 1359.606 1277.1372 1178.17464
343.62 412.344 494.8128 593.77536
6798.03 6385.686 5890.8732 5297.09784

15432.97 15432.97 15432.97 15432.97


12440.206 11841.6532 11123.38984 10261.473808
2992.764 3591.3168 4309.58016 5171.496192
59208.266 55616.9492 51307.36904 46135.872848

2861 2861 2861 2861


2306.6 2195.72 2062.664 1902.9968
554.4 665.28 798.336 958.0032
10978.6 10313.32 9514.984 8556.9808
Forecast
Jun-26 Jun-27 Jun-28 Jun-29
12336.73 11743.606 11031.8572 10177.759

593.124 711.7488 854.09856 1024.9183


11743.606 11031.8572 10177.75864 9152.84
Equity Schedule

$ in min Jun-20 Jun-21


Beginning Equity
Increase in Capital
Net Income/ (Loss)
Dividends
Ending Equity

Dividends as a % of Net Income


Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25
675695

59,019

675695 734714.1900899

40%
Forecast
Jun-26 Jun-27 Jun-28 Jun-29
734714.1900899 790756.6182 863751.4919209 954141.606

56,042 72,995 90,390 108,606

790756.618193 863751.492 954141.605607 1062747.7

40% 40% 40% 40%


Cash Flow

Forecast
$ in mln 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
EBITDA 191,097 208,776 228,091 249,193 272,247
Interest expenses -2566.2 -2467.346 -2348.721 -2206.371 -2035.552
Taxes -15850 -14506.57 -21295.45 -28258.51 -35551.86
Change in Trade Receivables -155860 -29264.72 -31972.15 -34930.06 -38161.61
Change in Inventory -83916.16 -96504.41 -105433 -115187 -125843
Change in Trade Payables 110691.6 67969.76 74257.98 81127.96 88633.52
Long Term Loans 286.35 343.62 412.344 494.8128 593.7754
Long Term Deposits -554.85 -638.0775 -733.7891 -843.8575 -970.4361
Capex -207522 -143219 -143219 -143219 -143219
Loans and advances 2493.97 2992.764 3591.317 4309.58 5171.496
Trade deposits -5234.55 -6019.732 -6922.692 -7961.096 -9155.261

Operating Cash Flow -166,935 -12,537 -5,571 2,520 11,709


Dividends
Short term loans from related party 213696.2 261695.5 320476.2 392459.9 480612.1
Change in Financial Liabilities -494.27 -593.124 -711.7488 -854.0986 -1024.918
Change in Provisions 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flow 46,267 248,565 314,193 394,126 491,296
30-Jun-20 30-Jun-21
Debt 0 0
Equity 116787 500977

Weight of Debt 0.00% 0.00%


Weight of Equity 100.00% 100.00%
Total Debt and Equity 116787 500977

Cost of Debt 20% 20%


Cost of Equity 59.43% 59.43%

CAPM 59.43% 59.43%


Market Return 59.43% 59.43%
Risk Free Rate 17.62% 17.62%
Beta 1 1

WACC

30-Jun-25 30-Jun-26
Cash Flows 46,267 248,565
WACC 58.6831% 58.7681%
Terminal Value
PV $187,862.67 $298,106.26

Cash flow growth 4.37243167864444

Firm Value
Number of Shares
Share Price
30-Jun-22 30-Jun-23 30-Jun-24 30-Jun-25 30-Jun-26
3092 6792 12831 12336.73 11743.61
712994 697523 675695 734714.1901 790756.6

0.43% 0.96% 1.86% 1.65% 1.46%


99.57% 99.04% 98.14% 98.35% 98.54%
716086 704315 688526 747050.9201 802500.2

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%


59.43% 59.43% 59.43% 59.43% 59.43%

59.43% 59.43% 59.43% 59.43% 59.43%


59.43% 59.43% 59.43% 59.43% 59.43%
17.62% 17.62% 17.62% 17.62% 17.62%
1 1 1 1 1

30-Jun-27 30-Jun-28 30-Jun-29


314,193 394,126 491,296 terminal value 1122294
58.8596% 58.9526% 59.0438%
1900781.859
$473,297.69 $751,878.84 $1,195,131.17

Average
0.26402754126149 0.25440634976915 0.24654734942 1.28435323
30-Jun-27 30-Jun-28 30-Jun-29
11031.86 10177.76 9152.84
863751.5 954141.6 1062748

1.26% 1.06% 0.85%


98.74% 98.94% 99.15%
874783.3 964319.4 1071901

20% 20% 20%


59.43% 59.43% 59.43%

59.43% 59.43% 59.43%


59.43% 59.43% 59.43%
WACC= Weight of Debt x Cost of Debt
17.62% 17.62% 17.62%
1 1 1
of Debt x Cost of Debt (1-t) +Weight of Equity x Cost of Equity

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