Stay ahead:

Active investing
for a shifting
landscape

Global Market
Outlook 2025
2
Stay ahead: Active investing
for a shifting landscape

Dear client

The great investor Howard Marks once said that "you can't predict, (but) you can prepare." This wisdom resonates strongly
as we look ahead to 2025, a year that we expect to unfold in two distinct phases. The first part of the year looks set for
a relatively stable trajectory, supported by moderating inflation, central banks' pivot to normalised rates, and continued
resilience in major economies. However, the second half could bring greater uncertainty as fiscal pressures increase and
geopolitical tensions persist. In addition, the tax and trade changes proposed by the incoming U.S. administration will have
economic implications that will become clear once they are implemented.

Rather than viewing this environment with apprehension, we see an opportunity for active investment approaches:

• First, the planned reduction in interest rates, while welcome, requires nuanced navigation. We believe that actively
managed fixed income strategies are well positioned to capitalise on yield curve movements and identify selected credit
opportunities as spreads evolve. Simply "buying the market" may not be enough in this environment.

• Second, although the equity market has been dominated by a handful of large tech companies, we see 2025 as a
"stock picker´s market." The next phase of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption will see winners emerge in a number of
industries, not just among infrastructure providers. We place a special focus on companies that implement AI solutions,
quality companies with strong balance sheets, and companies that enable the massive development of energy and IT
infrastructures.

• Finally, and perhaps most importantly, traditional balanced portfolios may need reinforcement. The combination of
demanding valuations in the public market and greater geopolitical complexity are compelling arguments for diversifying
beyond conventional stocks and bonds. Private markets, real assets (in particular, infrastructure and real estate), and
targeted hedging strategies can improve portfolio resilience while providing access to secular growth trends.

Your Private Banker is available to discuss how these opportunities can fit into your investment strategy. While the landscape
ahead might be challenging, we believe it can also be an appropriate window of opportunity to position your investments
actively and with a strategic vision.

Thank you for your trust.

Alfonso Castillo Lapetra

Global Head
Santander Private Banking

Global Market Outlook 2025 3

 I
Key Messages
2025
Page 5

II
In depth:

01 A year of two halves: solid start,

uncertain finish
Page 6

02 Capture the shift: the value

of active investing
Page 12

Index
4
 Key messages 2025

I Key messages 2025

A shifting landscape
A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Interest rates back Moving to a Rising geopolitical AI: Hopes for a

to neutral normalised growth risks productivity boom
Central banks worldwide are environment Despite moderating A new wave of technological
orchestrating a coordinated Global economic prospects inflation and supportive disruption led by AI, robotics,
shift towards lower interest for 2025 reflect a threefold monetary policy, 2025's and clean energy could
rates in 2025, as the focus narrative: initial stability outlook faces significant drive annual productivity
switches from inflation driven by resilient U.S. geopolitical headwinds. growth in the coming years,
to growth. This transition consumption, China's US-China tech competition, potentially helping to resolve
towards more neutral stimulus efforts, and strong the conflict in Ukraine, current economic challenges
monetary policy levels services performance and Middle East tensions including labour shortages
should lead to improved across major economies. create an interconnected and inflation pressures.
credit conditions and broader However, headwinds risk environment that could While implementation will
financial market stability. loom for the second half, challenge the anticipated take time, the impact could
Market expectations for Fed including inflation risks, fiscal scenario. Potential shifts match or exceed previous
rate cuts may evolve as new challenges in key economies, in US foreign policy technological revolutions.
fiscal and trade policies take and potential corporate following the presidential
shape. spending pullback affecting election could significantly
employment. reshape international trade
relationships and diplomatic
engagements.

Active investment ideas

Capture the opportunities of market shifts
2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3

Active investing in a Stay ahead of the Capture growth Diversify beyond

shifting landscape curve beyond the hype traditional mix
The macro environment As central banks begin their Equity markets benefit Traditional balanced
remains supportive of easing cycles, investors could from earnings recovery portfolios now face
multiple asset classes, enhance returns by moving and monetary easing, headwinds from elevated
yet current valuations beyond cash holdings. though concentrated valuations across major
already reflect soft landing Strategic opportunities lie in valuations in mega-cap tech asset classes. Amid rising
expectations. To enhance duration management and create vulnerability. geopolitical tensions and
returns in this environment, higher-yielding segments Investors could consider growing fiscal imbalances,
investors could consider including emerging market positioning for a broader investors should expand
looking beyond traditional debt, structured products, market recovery through beyond conventional stock-
allocations and embrace bank loans, and private credit. quality companies outside bond allocations. Adding
active management in Given the complexity of these technology, exposure to private markets,
specialised market segments. markets, active management firms implementing AI real assets, macro strategies,
Strategic diversification offers the optimal approach solutions across industries, structured products, precious
across investment styles, for capturing yield while and leaders in energy metals, and strategic
sectors, and geographies controlling risks. transformation. This commodities can enhance
could unlock value strategy captures growth portfolio resilience while
opportunities while potential while reducing improving return potential.
navigating today's complex single-sector exposure.
investment landscape.
Global Market Outlook 2025 5
II
In depth

01
A year of
two halves:
solid start,
uncertain
finish
1.0

A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish

1.0 A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish

In 2025, the global economic landscape will be shaped by significant changes such as shifts in
monetary policy, economic growth prospects, geopolitical risks, and technological innovation.

In this chapter, we aim to provide some insights into these four relevant macroeconomic topics:

01 Central banks are moving toward normalised interest rate levels. This shift provides support for economic growth as
inflation begins to moderate. The gradual reduction in interest rates is a necessary step to maintain economic stability
and stimulate growth. However, the pace of monetary easing in the U.S. could be influenced by the interaction between
growth-oriented policies and inflation dynamics.

02 Our central economic growth scenario for 2025 is one of a "soft landing". Growth in the first half of the year should
find support on the resilience of the US consumer, stimulus measures in China, the removal of election uncertainty
in the US and momentum in the services sector. However, the second half of the year may face challenges that could
threaten the projected growth path.

03 Geopolitical risks remain a significant concern, with potential shifts in U.S. international engagement likely to influence
global trade flows and regional conflicts. Tensions in these areas pose significant risks to global economic stability and
could disrupt the expected "soft landing" scenario.

04 Technological innovation is expected to play a critical role in driving future productivity growth. Artificial intelligence
(AI), robotics, renewable energy, and biotechnology are key areas that could enhance efficiency and foster growth in
capital expenditures.

Overall, while fundamentals support sustainable growth in early 2025, increased market volatility may emerge in the second
half as investors begin pricing in potential policy shifts and fiscal challenges. Managing these financial market risks, alongside
economic, geopolitical, and technological challenges, will be crucial for both policymakers and investors throughout 2025
and beyond.

A very balanced macro forecast: Modest growth and lower interest rates
Source: Santander CIB and Bloomberg / Reuters (for Japan, China and India). Data as of 31/10/2024

Economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019

Developed economies
Real GDP (YoY) Official interest rates
2024e 2025e 2024e 2025e
United States 2.4 % 1.9 % United States 4.25-4.50 % 3.25-3.50 %
Eurozone 0.7% 1.0 % Eurozone 3.0 % 2.0 %
United Kingdom 0.9 % 1.4 % United Kingdom 4.75 % 3.5 %
Japan 0.0 % 1.2 % Japan 0.4 % 0.7 %

Emerging economies
Real GDP (YoY) 2024e 2025e Official interest rates 2024e 2025e
Brazil 3.0 % 1.5 % Brazil 11.75 % 10.5 %
Mexico 1.5 % 1.2 % Mexico 10.0 % 8.0 %
Chile 2.5 % 2.5 % Chile 5.0 % 4.5 %
Poland 3.0 % 3.5 % Poland 5.75 % 4.5 %
China 4.8 % 4.5% China 1.5 % 1.2 %
India 8.2 % 6.9 % India 6.25 % 5.75 %

Global Market Outlook 2025 7

 1.1

A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish

1.1 Easier rates in the short term

The global monetary policy landscape is undergoing a significant shift as central Central banks are
banks move toward more conventional interest rate levels after a period of aggressive focusing more on
tightening. Major central banks are now focusing on rate cuts as inflationary pressures supporting growth
ease and the focus shifts to sustaining economic growth. The US Federal Reserve began as inflation eases
this easing cycle with a 0.50% cut in September. Market expectations for the terminal
rate were revised up to 3.75% (from 3.5%) following Donald Trump's victory, reflecting
concerns about restrictive immigration policies and higher tariffs that could reignite
inflationary pressures.

Emerging markets are ahead of developed markets in the easing cycle. As the charts
below show, further monetary easing is needed in the eurozone, and we expect the
European Central Bank to make further rate cuts to leave the official rate at 2.25% by June
2025. Developed markets appear on track to return to target inflation levels during Developed markets
2025, driven by normalising consumer demand and increased competition for limited converge toward
job openings. The implementation of new U.S. growth and trade policies may influence neutral rates by the
this inflation trajectory. The labour market has adjusted sufficiently to reduce inflationary end of 2025
pressures without leading to widespread unemployment.

In emerging markets, the timing and pace of the easing cycles varies. For example,
Brazil, Poland, and Mexico began cutting interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve,
in response to declining inflationary pressures. However, less than a year later, Brazil
reversed course and raised rates in anticipation of higher inflation forecasts.

Globally, interest rates are expected to normalise, supporting sustainable growth EM countries are
and price stability. However, in the U.S., monetary policy faces a delicate balancing ahead in easing cycle
act. The potential combination of fiscal expansion through tax policies and supply- but showing mixed
side constraints from shifting trade and immigration frameworks creates a complex paths
environment. This policy mix could introduce new inflationary pressures and market
volatility, requiring careful calibration of interest rates to maintain price stability while
supporting economic growth.

Monetary policy is normalising

Source: Bloomberg and Santander CIB for forecasts. Data as of 31/10/2024

Interest rates are expected to normalise and support sustainable growth and price stability
Dec-23 Nov-24 Dec-25 (forecast)

6% 14%
5.50%
5.25%
5% 12%
4.75% 4.75% 11.75%
11.25% 11.25%
4% 4.00% 10% 10.50% 10.50%
4.00%
3.50% 8.25%
3% 3.25% 8% 8.00%

2% 2.00% 6%
1.80% 5.75%
1.75% 5.25%
1.50% 5.00%
4.50%
1% 1.10% 4%
1.00%

0.51%
0% 0.25% 0.20% 2%
-0.10%

-1% 0%

United States Eurozone United Kingdom Japan Switzerland China Brazil Mexico Chile Poland

Policy rate
-200 bps -200 bps -125 bps +61 bps -155 bps -70 bps -100 bps -325 bps -375 bps -75 bps
change (bps)

8
1.2

A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish

1.2 Moving to a normalised growth environment

The global economic outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with a "soft landing" scenario A benign global
expected in the first half of the year. Early-year growth is supported by several short-term economic outlook
strengths, including the resilience of the US consumer and expectations of tax cuts, recent unfolds but policy
stimulus measures in China, and continued momentum in the services sector in major uncertainty and
economies. These factors provide a stable foundation that should help sustain moderate
geopolitical tensions
growth in early 2025, easing fears of an immediate downturn.
could derail the
US consumer spending habits remain unchanged, supported by strong household finances,
initial positive macro
stable employment, and wage growth. The new Trump administration is expected to backdrop
drive economic growth through a combination of deregulatory policies, aimed at reducing
restrictions on businesses across various sectors, and tax cuts, to encourage business
investment. Meanwhile, the services sector, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, continues
to show resilience, with growth remaining robust even as manufacturing decelerates. The
current consumer trend towards experiences and services together supports a stable growth Services sector
outlook in the near term. In Europe, external shocks and structural problems have pushed momentum and
Germany into its first two-year recession in more than two decades. consumer strength
underpin global
Emerging markets are poised to benefit from China’s recent stimulus measures, providing
economic growth
a boost to regional trade and economic stability, and from proactive easing by their central
banks. As borrowing costs decline, these economies could attract more foreign investment,
supported by a stable dollar and improving trade balances, creating a favourable growth
outlook amid global economic challenges.

As the year progresses, potential headwinds could challenge the outlook, risking China's stimulus
inflationary pressures and a more challenging economic environment. New tariffs, especially offers crucial support
if geopolitical tensions rise, could reignite inflation concerns. Fiscal strains could worsen in to counter global
key economies such as France and the U.S., leading to difficult policy choices and potentially manufacturing
affecting business and consumer confidence. Corporate spending may also decline if top- slowdown
line growth weakens, leading to reduced hiring or layoffs, which could dampen consumer
sentiment and spending, creating a more uncertain outlook for the latter half of the year.

Business confidence indicators depict a diverging outlook

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31/10/2024

A tale of two sectors: resilient services outpace sluggish manufacturing

United States Eurozone United Kingdom China Japan Brazil Global
Mexico Poland India

Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

65 65

60 60

55 55

50 50

45 45

40 40
Oct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 Oct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24 Oct-24 Oct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 Oct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24 Oct-24

Global Market Outlook 2025 9

1.3

A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish

1.3 A fragile world: Rising geopolitical risks

The early 2025 economic outlook appears stable with moderating inflation and supportive Geopolitical tensions
monetary policy, but geopolitical risks could disrupt this scenario. The global risk index has can eventually escalate
remained elevated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with recent Middle East tensions as investors evaluate
triggering new spikes (see graph below). Market volatility indicators - both equity (VIX) and fixed the policy implications
income (MOVE) - demonstrate heightened sensitivity to these geopolitical developments. of the new US
administration
Three critical risks deserve focus. First, the U.S.-China relationship remains complex as
both nations compete for global economic and technological leadership. Beyond traditional
trade tensions, competition extends into strategic sectors like semiconductors, AI, and green
technology. The implementation of tariffs (up to 60% on Chinese goods) and potential trade
restrictions could disrupt global supply chains and reignite inflationary pressures.

Second, the conflict in Ukraine, while markets have largely priced in current dynamics, risks US-China power
remain elevated. Europe's vulnerability to energy disruptions persists - any escalation could struggle creates
force central banks to choose between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Changes widespread risks
in U.S. policy approach under the new administration add another layer of uncertainty. across markets
and sectors
Finally, the recent escalation in the Middle East has raised concerns about regional stability
and energy security. Any significant disruption to oil production or shipping routes could
trigger an increase in energy prices, affecting global inflation and growth. The Strait of Hormuz,
through which approximately 20% of global oil shipments pass, remains a critical chokepoint.

Looking toward the second half of 2025, market volatility could intensify beyond these Ukraine and the
geopolitical concerns and discussions around fiscal discipline may unsettle markets. Middle East conflicts
Additionally, while actual implementation of new trade and immigration policies might are of special relevance
not materialise until 2026, financial markets typically price in such changes well in to energy markets
advance. This combination suggests heightened market volatility rather than economic
hard landing risk, requiring careful portfolio positioning.

Geopolitical Risk Index and market volatility

Source: Data downloaded from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm and Bloomberg for MOVE and VIX indexes. Data as of 11/07/2024

Perception of geopolitical risk is on the rise and could impact markets in 2025

Geopolitical Risk Index* Market volatility**

Bond market volatility (MOVE) (LHS)
450 Equity market volatility (VIX index) (RHS)
Ukraine Invasion 250 90
400
Pandemic Credit Suisse, Japan carry trade 80
350 Silicon Valley unwinding, poor
200 Bank & others economic U.S. 70
300 collapse data
Pandemic 60
Invasion of Gaza
250 150
50
200
40
100
150
30

100 20
50
50 10

0 0 0
Nov-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24 Nov-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24

* Geopolitical Risk Index: number of articles related to adverse geopolitical events in each (selected) newspaper for each month (as a share of the total number of news articles).
** VIX Index: expected volatility of the S&P 500 in a 30-day period. The closer to 0, the lowest the volatility.
MOVE Index: tracks implied normal yield volatility of a U.S. yield curve weighted basket of at-the-money one-month options on the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year constant maturity
interest rate swaps.

10
1.4

A year of two halves: solid start, uncertain finish

1.4 Innovation boom: a productivity

breakthrough ahead
A potential wave of productivity growth driven by technological disruption could provide The convergence of AI,
crucial support to our scenario of moderate growth amid inflation risks. Innovations offer a robotics, and energy
pathway to potentially extended cycles of economic expansion with moderated inflation. efficiency technologies
This possibility is particularly compelling as it suggests that, despite current headwinds, represents a cognitive
emerging technologies could counterbalance inflationary pressures and enhance industrial revolution
productivity in a way that sustains growth without excessive price increases.

Technological innovation has long been a catalyst for economic growth by enhancing
productivity, though its benefits often unfold gradually. The graph below shows how past
technological revolutions—such as the IBM mainframe, Windows PC, and web browser—
each brought about significant productivity gains and periods of above-average returns in Past technological
the equity markets. disruptions have
contributed to a rise in
The current technological revolution is built on several interconnected pillars. Machine productivity
learning and AI systems are revolutionising business operations through process automation,
predictive analytics, and decision support, with potential productivity gains of 25-40% across
industries. Advanced robotics and automation systems are simultaneously transforming
manufacturing efficiency and reducing labour constraints. The ongoing transition to
clean energy technology is contributing to energy cost stability while reducing fossil fuel
dependence. Biotechnology advances are driving healthcare efficiency improvements and
boosting workforce productivity through better health outcomes. The full economic
potential of these
While the potential benefits of these technologies are immense, their adoption and innovations may take
integration into the economy will be gradual, with the gains in productivity and economic time to impact growth
growth becoming apparent only as these innovations achieve broader application.

Increase in productivity (*) and performance of equity market in the U.S. after technological disruptions
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 30/09/2024

Important improvements in productivity following major technological breakthroughs

Artificial
Mainframes IBM Internet intelligence
4.5%
Productivity growth (U.S.)

Stockmarket return (S&P 500)

17% 18%
4.0% S&P 500 return 14% 16%
S&P 500 return
3.5%
14%
3.0% 11% ? 12%
S&P 500 return
2.5%
10%

2.0%
8%

1.5% 6%

1.0% 4%

0.5% 2%

0.0% 0%

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

(*) Productivity: U.S. non-farm business sector output per hour (5-year rolling average)

Global Market Outlook 2025 11

II
The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

In depth

02
Active
Investment
for a shifting
landscape
2.0

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.0 Active investing for a shifting landscape

The market has already discounted a soft-landing scenario, as evidenced by strong performance
across major asset classes. While balanced portfolios have historically outperformed cash
positions in similar environments, current market conditions warrant caution - credit spreads
are at historical lows and equity valuations are elevated, particularly in U.S. large caps. Looking
at historical data, in rate-cutting cycles during soft landings, balanced portfolios delivered
average returns of 15% versus 5% for cash positions.

Our objective with this chapter is to offer investment ideas that might help navigate the current scenario.

01 Stay ahead of the curve: Take an active approach to yield curve positioning as central banks normalise rates. Target
opportunities in specialised credit markets and emerging market debt, where yields remain attractive. Focus on
selective credit exposure given tight spreads.

02 Capture growth beyond the hype: Focus on companies with sustainable earnings power and quality characteristics. To
benefit from a broader market recovery, clients could consider investments beyond the largest capitalisation technology
companies. Target beneficiaries of AI implementation across sectors and companies enabling energy transition infrastructure.

Diversify beyond the traditional mix: Current valuations and potential volatility argue for looking beyond traditional

03 stocks and bonds. Consider increased allocations to:

• Private markets offering unique return streams
• Real assets providing inflation protection
• Safe-haven assets like gold for geopolitical hedging
• Macro hedge funds to navigate policy shifts
• Structured products for targeted risk/return profiles

In conclusion, to optimise returns, investors could explore beyond traditional allocations and opt for active
investment in specialised market segments. This multilayered approach aims to capture opportunities while
building resilience for an environment where both stocks and bonds face valuation headwinds.

Markets performance during previous monetary easing cycles

Source: Santander Private Banking and Bloomberg

In the past, a soft-landing scenario allowed for positive returns across markets

Change in yields (bps) Period returns

Cash Sec. Equities
Policy 10 year Investment High Government
First cut Last cut Economy (Money credit (S&P
rate change Treasury grade Yield Treasuries
Mkt.) (MBS) 500)
Oct-84 Aug-86 Soft landing -587 -551 16% 44% 44% 36% 42% 51%
Jun-89 Sep-92 Recession -675 -197 25% 44% 47% 40% 44% 30%
Jul-95 Jan-96 Soft landing -75 -45 3% 9% 7% 6% 6% 15%
Sep-98 Nov-98 Soft landing -75 31 1% 4% 3% 2% 2% 9%
Jan-01 Jun-03 Recession -550 -175 7% 31% 23% 21% 20% -28%
Sep-07 Dec-08 Recession -500 -222 3% -2% -25% 16% 13% -40%
Jul-19 Oct-19 Soft landing -75 -24 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Mar-20 Mar-20 Recession -150 -28 0% -7% -11% 2% 1% -21%

Total average -336 -151 7% 16% 11% 16% 16% 2%

Soft landing -203 -147 5% 15% 14% 12% 13% 19%
Recession -469 -156 9% 17% 9% 20% 20% -15%

Global Market Outlook 2025 13

2.1

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.1 Stay ahead of the curve

Fixed income allocation strategies warrant reassessment as markets prices in a soft landing
and moderate rate cuts. Following 2024's robust rally, yields have declined substantially, and
credit spreads have tightened to historical lows. This price action reflects growing confidence in
economic stability, though further gains may be limited from current levels.

Fixed income assets offer advantages over cash, particularly during rate-cutting cycles. While cash is essential for short-
term needs, fixed income investments historically outperform cash, providing better potential returns through both yield and
capital appreciation. This makes fixed income a strategic choice for investors looking to optimise their portfolios in the current
economic climate. To capitalise on these opportunities, it may be advantageous for investors to explore a diversified approach
to fixed income investments. This includes looking into various segments such as government bonds, corporate credit, and
alternative fixed income assets.

Government bonds remain foundational despite lower yields, offering stability and portfolio protection. Focus on longer-
duration bonds and inflation-protected securities to enhance returns in this environment. The current 10-year Treasury yield
at 4.4% provides an attractive entry point as the Fed progresses with its easing cycle.

Corporate credit offers compelling opportunities but requires careful credit quality assessment given tight spreads
(investment grade spreads at 80bps, near cycle lows). Sector and issuer selection becomes critical as the credit cycle matures.
Focus on defensive sectors and strong balance sheets.

Specialised fixed income segments, such as high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, and structured products, offer
additional opportunities for diversification and yield enhancement. These investments can provide higher returns but come
with increased risk, making thorough research and active management vital. A diversified, actively managed approach can
help optimise portfolios in this evolving rate environment. This strategy involves tactically balancing duration exposure
as central banks cut rates, selectively adding credit risk in sectors with strong fundamentals, and incorporating specialised
segments like emerging market debt and securitised debt for yield enhancement. The key is maintaining flexibility to adjust
positions as opportunities shift between regions and segments while keeping a defensive core allocation focused on high-
quality government and corporate bonds.

U.S. Money Market fund assets vs. Fed Funds rate

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data as of 07/11/2024

Record levels of liquid funds will begin the search for yield as rate cuts take place
ICI Money Market Funds Assets (LHS) Federal Funds Target Rate - Upper Bound (RHS)

7 7%
Volume in money market funds in US$ ($Trillion)

6%
6

5%
5

4%
4

3%

3
2%

2
1%

1
0%

0 -1%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

14
2.1.1

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.1.1 Position for a steeper curve

Policy rates are projected to decline meaningfully through 2025 - Fed Funds rate moving The ability to actively
below 4% and ECB deposit rate toward 2%. This creates compelling opportunities beyond adjust duration and
cash investments as the yield curve steepens during the easing cycle. curve positioning
during monetary
Historical monetary cycles demonstrate that shorter-term rates typically fall faster than easing cycles is crucial
long-term rates, leading to a steeper yield curve. This pattern creates opportunities
for active managers to capture higher yields than cash, benefit from potential price
appreciation as rates fall, and take advantage of market volatility around each central
bank decision.

For U.S. investors, the 5-year segment offers attractive value with 4.2% yields and moderate While the direction of
duration risk. European investors may find opportunities in the 3-7 year range where more rates seems clear, the
aggressive ECB cuts could drive stronger returns. Historical patterns show that shorter-term path will not
rates typically fall faster than long-term rates during easing cycles. be straight and bond
market volatility has
While the direction of rates seems clear, the path will not be straight. Market volatility can
increased after the
emerge from uncertainty regarding the pace of rate cuts, changes in fiscal policy, questions
elections in the U.S.
about sovereign debt sustainability in certain countries, and reactions to economic data.
Geopolitical risks and varying inflation trajectories across regions could further complicate
central banks' policy paths, while elevated government debt levels may impact term
premiums. Yet this environment of change and adjustment is precisely where active
management can add the most value.

This environment of change creates opportunities for active managers to capture value Active managers
through dynamic positioning. Rather than remaining in cash or taking excessive duration can deliver value
risk, a balanced approach focused on intermediate maturity offers attractive risk-adjusted for investors in this
return potential. Flexibility to adjust positioning as opportunities evolve while maintaining dynamic environment
strategic objectives becomes critical

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape for short rates and medium term yields
Source: Bloomberg and WIRP function for expected central bank rates in 2025. Data as of 07/11/2024

Beyond cash: The case for increasing duration as the curve steepens

United States Europe

Yield U.S. 5 Year Treasury Bond Yield U.S. 3 Month Treasury bill 5Yr Bond 3M T-bill
Federal Funds Target Rate Mid ECB Deposit Facility Rate

6% 5%

5% 4%

4% 3%

3% 2%

2% 1%

1% 0%

0% -1%
Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25

Global Market Outlook 2025 15

2.1.2

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.1.2 Explore specialised credit opportunities

Corporate bond spreads are historically tight, highlighting the need for a strategic Active management
approach to managing credit risk. This tightening reflects the current asymmetry in and focus on quality
credit returns, with limited upside compared with the downside risk. Despite strong over yield as credit
corporate fundamentals and expected rate cuts, the premium for holding credit risk has spreads tighten
diminished significantly.

For private banking clients, specific areas of the credit market offer favorable returns
relative to the risk. Securitised debt, particularly mortgage-backed securities (MBS),
presents a compelling case. The U.S. residential real estate sector faces limited supply,
supporting asset quality in these securities. MBS offer an attractive yield spread and is
backed by sound collateral, making it a suitable choice for yield enhancement without Securitised debt,
significantly increasing risk exposure. The structured nature of MBS, often with government especially MBS, offers
backing, provides added security in a volatile market environment. attractive returns with
strong underlying
Specialised credit sectors including catastrophe bonds (CAT), Additional Tier 1 (AT1) collateral value
capital instruments, private credit, and collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) offer
diversification benefits. These complex instruments require specialised management
but can enhance portfolio yield without significantly increasing correlation to traditional
risks. CAT bonds provide uncorrelated yield opportunities, while CLOs and AT1 securities
serve as high-yield options with unique risk-return profiles. Active management becomes Specialised credit
critical in this environment as managers can respond dynamically to spread widening sectors provide
opportunities while positioning defensively when spreads tighten further. Security selection diversification
in less efficient market segments creates alpha potential. The ability to maintain flexibility opportunities when
in adjusting risk exposure as conditions evolve helps protect against market dislocations. accessed through
Through targeted credit selection and active risk management, managers can identify
experienced managers
opportunities while maintaining appropriate portfolio protection.

Evolution of yields in U.S. and Eurozone bond indexes

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31/10/2024

Riskiest parts of credit (high yield) have rallied reducing the premium for owning them
Aggregated Investment Grade High Yield

United States Eurozone

12% 14%

12%
10%

10%
8%

8%
6%
6%

4%
4%

2%
2%

0% 0%
Oct-09 Oct-12 Oct-15 Oct-18 Oct-21 Oct-24 Oct-09 Oct-12 Oct-15 Oct-18 Oct-21 Oct-24

Indexes used for these graphs: Bloomberg US Agg Total Return Index USD, Bloomberg US Corporate Total Return Index USD, Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Total Return Index USD,
Bloomberg Pan-European Aggregate Total Return Index EUR, Bloomberg Pan European Aggregate Corporate TR Index EUR, Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Total Return Index EUR

16
2.1.3

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.1.3 Find diversification in emerging markets

Emerging Markets Debt (EMD) offers valuable diversification within fixed income. Emerging markets
Historically, EMD has benefited from declining U.S. rates, soft landing economic scenarios, debt is positioned to
and a weakening dollar. Yet, recent U.S. political developments have introduced new benefit from declining
headwinds. Rising U.S. yields and fiscal expansion are strengthening the dollar, increasing U.S. rates despite
pressure on emerging market currencies and debt, especially for issuers with U.S. dollar- recent turmoil after
denominated obligations.
Trump´s election
China’s recent stimulus actions provide optimism, supporting growth across emerging
economies and setting the stage for long-term capital inflows. However, dollar strength
remains a complex factor, elevating debt burdens for these markets. The yield differential
between emerging and developed markets, however, continues to offer attractive return The potential for a
potential, especially in countries with high real rates and robust macro fundamentals. weaker dollar and
China´s new stimulus
EMD investment can be approached through two primary options: hard currency and local program are other
currency bonds. Hard currency EMD, denominated in reserve currencies like the U.S. dollar, tailwinds
limits currency risk and remains appealing as U.S. yields decline. Local currency EMD,
issued in emerging markets’ native currencies, offers direct exposure to local yields and
potential for currency appreciation against the dollar. However, the current strong dollar
could counteract these gains, posing a challenge for investors accepting currency risk.

Despite currency volatility, emerging markets with solid macroeconomic foundations and Higher real interest
high yields remain attractive. Countries with robust foreign exchange reserves, disciplined rates are the main
monetary policy, and improving current account balances offer particularly compelling support for local
opportunities. This segment offers substantial diversification benefits, adding valuable currency EMD
exposure to growth opportunities within global fixed income. With a strategic, diversified
approach, EMD can act as a key portfolio component for investors seeking returns that
balance emerging market prospects with manageable risks.

Breakdown of nominal, real rates and inflation between developed and emerging economies
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 11/07/2024. October CPI and central banks benchmark rates

Diversification into emerging markets provides access to higher real rates

11.25% Real rates Inflation YoY Nominal rates

10.50% 10.25%

4.4%
4.8%
5.8% 6.50%
5.75%
5.25%
4.75% 4.75%

3.25% 1.7% 3.25%

2.4% 5.5%
6.8% 4.1% 4.9%
5.7%
2.0% 4.4% 1.50%
2.6%
3.1% 2.5% 0.4%
2.4%
1.3% 1.2%
0.25% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7%

-2.3%

United Eurozone United Japan Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Poland China India S. Korea
States Kingdom

Global Market Outlook 2025 17

2.2

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.2 Capture growth beyond the hype

The equity outlook remains constructive, supported by earnings momentum and monetary
easing that could expand valuation multiples. However, markets appear to have largely priced in
this optimistic scenario. The MSCI World Index's 20% year-to-date gain has been predominantly
driven by the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which have surged over 60%, led by Nvidia. This
extreme market concentration suggests active management may prove especially valuable.

While market concentration has reached notable levels, with the S&P 500's top 10 stocks now representing over 30% of the
index versus 23% in 2019, this reflects the unique strength of U.S. markets as the global hub for innovative companies. The S&P
500's consistent earnings growth track record and technological leadership warrant a core strategic allocation, despite current
valuations at 25x earnings. However, elevated valuations across global markets suggest maintaining an overall neutral equity
stance, while selectively diversifying beyond the dominant mega-cap tech leaders. We identify three key opportunities for 2025:

01 Positioning for a broader recovery: Focus on quality companies with strong balance sheets outside technology,
including attractively valued small caps poised for recovery.

02 Investing in the next wave of innovation: Target companies successfully deploying AI solutions across industries rather
than fully-valued infrastructure providers. This "AI 2.0" phase may offer better risk-adjusted returns.

03 Investing in the data and energy infrastructure behind AI: Position in companies driving and enabling the massive
multi-year investment in energy innovation, data centers and grid modernisation.

Geographic diversification into European and emerging markets offers additional value, with lower valuations compensating
for modest growth prospects. Key opportunities include European industrials and renewables, India's domestic growth story,
Latin American commodity and nearshoring advantages, and Asian markets benefiting from China's stimulus. This regional
diversification not only reduces concentration risk but also positions portfolios to capture different economic cycles and secular
trends beyond the U.S. tech narrative.

Valuation (Price/Earnings ratio) of selected equity markets compared with historical average
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31/10/2024

US exceptionalism (stronger growth and technology leadership) results in significant valuation

premiums
Range max - min (15 years) Average (15 years) Actual
45x

40x

35x

33.4X
30x

25x
25.4X 25.7X

20x 21.8x 20.7X 19.9x

20.4X
18.0x 19.0x
15x 16.2x 17.0x
14.4X 15.5X
14.6x 12.0x 13.3x
10x
11.5X 10.2X
5x

0x
World S&P Nasdaq MSCI Global Stoxx 600 Nikkei MSCI MSCI MSCI
Equities 500 100 Small Caps Europe Japan China India Latam
(MSCI ACWI)

18
2.2.1

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.2.1 Positioning for a broader recovery

The anticipated market recovery signals a significant shift away from concentrated tech Equity market
leadership. The 'Magnificent Seven' mega-cap stocks (whose market capitalisation now performance has been
exceeds the GDP of major countries, as shown below) should give way to broader market heavily concentrated in
participation. Tech companies' exceptional earnings growth of 36% year-over-year in Q2 2023 and 2024
2024 is expected to moderate. This moderation in the earnings growth gap (illustrated
in the graph below) creates an environment where market performance becomes less
dependent on a few dominant tech leaders.

To capitalise on this shift, investors could consider a diversified approach emphasizing

high-quality stocks with strong balance sheets and consistent profitability. Companies
characterised by robust cash flows, stable earnings, and proven ability to navigate economic
cycles are well-positioned for this broadening recovery phase. These firms can provide both Broaden focus to
resilience and steady returns as markets transition from concentrated tech leadership to a quality stocks beyond
more balanced earnings environment. tech for stable growth
potential
Value and small-cap stocks offer particularly compelling opportunities, having lagged
significantly during the extended tech rally. These market segments should benefit from
both lower interest rates reducing financial costs and potential corporate tax cuts under
the new Trump administration. The combination of attractive valuations and improving
fundamentals creates a favourable setup for these previously overlooked segments.

We also favour companies with strong shareholder return programs through dividends Trump´s reelection
and buybacks. Dividend-paying stocks provide reliable income stability, while active adds fuel to the
buyback programs demonstrate clear commitment to maximising shareholder value. Such broadening of the
companies typically reward investors well in stable market environments, aligning with our earnings recovery with
broader recovery thesis. This emphasis on capital returns becomes increasingly important as potential tax cuts
the market transitions to a more balanced growth environment.

Magnificent 7 (M7) stocks market capitilisation versus relevant country indexes and GDP
Source: Bloomberg

Concentration in equity markets and broadening of earnings recovery supports diversification

Market capitilisation of M7 vs. country indexes and GDP Quarterly earnings growth (YoY%) of M7 stocks vs. rest of S&P 500 (493)

Magnificent 7 stock Country GDP in current USD*

S&P 500 Magnificent 7 S&P 500 ex M7
Equity Market Cap in USD
60%
3.652
Bn USD

3.550 3.439 53%

3.340 50%
3.198
3.031
2.790 2.800 40%
2.595
2.140
2.222 2.209 30%
1.886
1.788
1.581 1.589 20%
1.494

885 11% 11% 13% 12%

953
10% 8% 8% 7% 8%
818 5%
0%
330
-2%
-10%
Microsoft

Alphabet

Mexbol
Nvidia

Apple
UK
FTSE 100

France
CAC 40

Canada
TSX

Amazon
Mexico

Meta
Spain
Ibex

Tesla
Switzerland
SMI

CQ3 23 CQ4 23 CQ1 24 CQ2 24 CQ3 24 CQ4 24 CQ1 25 CQ2 25 CQ3 25

India
Sensex

CQ = Calendar Quarter

Global Market Outlook 2025 19

2.2.2

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.2.2 Investing in the next wave of innovation

The technological revolution presents compelling investment opportunities across Diversify portfolios
artificial intelligence, robotics, renewable energy, and life sciences. While market by targeting
enthusiasm has driven high valuations for leading tech companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, industries integrating
and Alphabet, significant value lies in identifying the next generation of innovators beyond transformative
these established players. Current valuations in infrastructure providers suggest much of technologies effectively
the near-term opportunity may be priced in.

Amara's Law offers a crucial perspective: markets typically overestimate technology's

immediate impact while undervaluing its long-term transformative power. Rather than
focusing solely on infrastructure providers, investors should identify companies successfully
implementing these technologies. Much like Amazon and Google created superior value Shift positioning
by applying internet infrastructure to transform commerce and advertising, tomorrow's from infrastructure
leaders will be companies that effectively deploy AI, robotics, and clean energy solutions providers towards AI
to solve real business challenges. 2.0. (adapters)
Success in technological adoption requires three key elements: sophisticated implementation
of AI solutions across traditional industries, effective combination of multiple emerging
technologies to create competitive advantages, and transformation of existing business
models to capture new markets. These companies often trade at more reasonable valuations
than technology providers while offering similar exposure to secular growth trends.

Active managers can identify these future winners by evaluating companies' proprietary data Focus on investing in
assets, existing competitive advantages, demonstrated ability to implement change, and companies that could
clear paths to monetising technological investments. The most attractive opportunities often benefit from either a
lie not with the technology creators but with sophisticated adopters who leverage these boost to productivity or
innovations to drive productivity gains and revenue growth. This approach provides exposure an increase in revenue
to technological transformation while potentially avoiding the valuation premiums currently
attached to infrastructure providers, which in some cases exceed 30x forward earnings.

Year-on-year performance differential of the technology sector and the "Magnificent 7" (M7) vs. the S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg and Santander Private Banking. Data as of 11/07/2024

The next wave of value creation (AI 2.0): The adapters of AI

S&P 500 Tech vs. S&P 500 M7 vs. S&P 500

Gartner technology adoption cycle*

VISIBILITY
100%
Peak of Inflated Expectations

80% Plateau of Productivity

60% Slope of Enlightenment

Trough of Disillusionment
40% TIME
Technology Trigger

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

New Search, Streaming Cloud Auto-

GPUs AI Smart Biotech-
technology Internet Portals Sms, email Digital eCommerce Smartphones Social media Work-from- Data- mated
LLMs Agents robotics nology
advertising home centers driving

Internet Infrastructure Internet adapters AI Infrastructure AI adapters

Digital Revolution (Internet) Cognitive revolution (AI & Robotics)

*The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research, advisory and information technology firm Gartner to represent the maturity,
adoption, and social application of specific technologies.

20
2.2.3

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.2.3 Energy & data: powering AI

Artificial intelligence adoption is fundamentally boosting data center and energy The cognitive and
infrastructure requirements, creating substantial investment opportunities. The surge in industrial revolutions
AI computing demands is driving unprecedented growth in power consumption, with will demand a
data centre energy usage projected to triple by 2030. This expansion requires over substantial expansion
50 gigawatts of additional capacity in the United States alone, representing potential of data centres
investments exceeding $500 billion1.
infrastructure
Meeting AI's energy demands requires a complete transformation of power generation
and distribution systems. Industry estimates suggest $800 billion2 in transmission and
distribution network investments over the next decade. Beyond pure capacity expansion,
this transformation demands enhanced efficiency and strategic location selection. Regions
offering reliable, cost-effective power are emerging as prime destinations for integrated Investments in
data centre and energy infrastructure development. sustainable power
sources and efficient
Environmental sustainability has become central to infrastructure strategies. Major grid expansion are
technology companies' carbon reduction commitments are accelerating demand for crucial to meeting this
renewable energy solutions. This creates compelling opportunities across solar and
demand​​​
wind projects, grid moderisation initiatives, and energy storage systems. Infrastructure
investments in this sector combine defensive characteristics - long-term contracts and
regulated returns - with significant growth potential from continued AI adoption.

The investment opportunity spans multiple subsectors: data centres, power

generation, transmission networks, and grid technology. Key focus areas include energy AI enables utilities
storage solutions, smart grid development, and efficiency technologies. Success requires to optimise grids for
understanding both the technological demands of AI and the evolving energy landscape. unprecedented power
Investors can access this theme through specialised infrastructure funds, direct project demands
investments, or carefully selected public market exposure to companies enabling this
transformation.

Exponential growth of data and forecasts of energy demand for data centers
Source: Global Energy perspective 2023. McKinsey, October 2023 and Statista, Bernard Marr & Co.

The explosive growth of AI is fueling a data and energy infrastructure boom

Growth of global data generation (Zettabytes/year) United States - Energy demand for data centers
Share of total US power demand (%)
U.S data center energy consumption
300 700 14%
TWh

291
600 12%
250

236
500 10%
200 +2.7x
193
400 8%
150 159
300 6%
130
100 106
200 4%
79
64.2
50 41 100 2%
33
24
15 18
9 12.5
0 2 4 6.5 0 0%
2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e

1 Zettabyte = 1.000.000.000.000 Gigabytes

1 Terawatt = 1,000,000,000 of KWh

1 McKinsey Global Energy Perspectives 2023
2 IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 Global Market Outlook 2025 21
2.3

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.3 Diversifying beyond the traditional mix

Traditional balanced portfolios face challenges as elevated valuations in stocks and bonds
offer limited upside amid potential volatility. A more diversified approach is our suggestion,
incorporating private markets, real assets, hedge funds, structured products, and commodities.
This broader asset mix provides additional resilience, inflation protection, and income stability.
By adopting these strategies, investors can enhance returns and manage risks effectively in an
increasingly complex and uncertain market environment.

Traditional balanced portfolios face challenges as elevated valuations in stocks and bonds offer limited upside amid
potential volatility, with current market prices already discounting an optimistic soft-landing scenario and central bank
easing. Historical analysis shows that during rate-cutting cycles, maintaining market exposure has proven more rewarding
than holding cash, particularly in soft landing scenarios where balanced portfolios have consistently outperformed.

By integrating alternatives—such as private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and macro hedge funds—portfolios can
gain stability and tap into unique return streams less correlated with public markets, while maintaining exposure to market
upside potential. Real assets offer potential growth and income, especially through stable rental yields in real estate or critical
infrastructure tied to digitalization and the energy transition, providing both portfolio diversification and participation in
long-term structural trends.

Additionally, safe-haven assets like gold and strategic commodities add layers of protection against geopolitical and
inflationary risks. With increasing central bank demand for gold, alongside rising interest in essential commodities, investors
can secure more stable value through tangible assets. Structured products further allow tailored downside protection while
retaining some upside. This expanded asset allocation strategy enhances portfolio resilience, equipping clients to navigate
both volatility and opportunities in an evolving global landscape. By moving beyond traditional balanced allocations, investors
can better position themselves for both protection and opportunity in an increasingly uncertain world. The combination
of uncorrelated return streams from private markets, inflation protection from real assets, downside mitigation through
structured products, and strategic diversification via commodities and gold creates a more robust portfolio structure that can
potentially weather various market environments while maintaining participation in long-term growth trends.

Performance of traditional balanced portfolios (60% equities and 40% bonds)

Source: Bloomberg

Diversified portfolios have rallied on the back of equity markets

United States Europe
STOXX Europe 600 (Equities)
S&P 500 INDEX (Equities) Bloomberg US balanced EQ:FI 60:40
Bloomberg Pan Europe balanced EQ:FI 60:40
Bloomberg US Aggregate (Bonds)
Bloomberg Pan-Europe Aggregate (Bonds)
30% 12%

25% 10%

8%
20%

6%
15%
4%
10%
2%

5%
0%

0% -2%

-5% -4%
Dec-23 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Dec-23 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Nov-24

22
2.3.1

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.3.1 Pivot towards private markets

Private markets have become fundamental to how companies raise capital and create Private markets
value in today's economy. The significant decline in IPOs over the past decade reflects this have grown
transformation, as companies can now access substantial funding through private channels significantly and offer
- including venture capital, private equity, private debt, and infrastructure investment - unique investment
allowing them to scale significantly b efore c onsidering p ublic l istings. P rivate d ebt h as
opportunities not
emerged as a vital funding source, offering companies flexible alternatives to traditional bank
available on listed
financing, while infrastructure investments provide exposure to essential assets with stable
returns driven by digitalisation and sustainability trends. This evolution has created distinctive
markets
investment opportunities beyond what public markets typically offer, l eading i nstitutional
investors to boost their private market allocations from 17% to 27% over the past decade.

Access to private markets has improved through innovative investment vehicles. Evergreen With innovative
funds and secondaries provide alternatives to traditional closed-end structures, featuring companies delaying
regular liquidity opportunities, reduced J-curve effects, vintage year diversification, and greater IPOs, private markets
portfolio management flexibility. The current environment appears particularly favourable for have become essential
private market investment, given reset valuations due to higher rates, normalised fundraising
for capturing early
levels reducing competition, robust deal flow as companies defer public listings, and expanding
value
opportunities in growth sectors like AI, healthcare, and sustainability.

For successful private market investing, investors should consider focusing on four
key principles: maintain consistent exposure, prioritise manager selection, embrace
diversification, and consider newer investment structures. A steady commitment strategy Innovative structures
across market cycles historically delivers superior results compared to tactical timing like evergreen funds
approaches. Manager selection has become increasingly crucial as performance dispersion and secondaries
grows between top and bottom quartiles. Geographic and strategic diversification h elps improve liquidity and
optimise risk-adjusted returns. Finally, exploring flexible structures like evergreen funds can
accessibility
streamline portfolio management while maintaining private market exposure. While private
markets require patience and expertise, they continue to offer compelling opportunities for
investors who take a systematic, well-diversified approach focused on accessing premier
managers.

Institutional investors´ allocation to private markets and evolution of IPOs

Source: McKinsey Global Private Markets Review 2024. March 2024

Private markets are growing and offer unique diversification benefits

Private credit Infrastructure Real Number of technology-related IPOs (RHS)

estate Private equity Total Private Markets US listed public companies (LHS)
US Public companies (LHS)
27.0% 10.000

9.000
22.6% 250
21.6% 21.4% 8.000
20.6% 10.1%
19.3% 19.2% 7.000
18.1%
17.3% 17.3% 8.5%
7.1% 7.5% 6.000
6.7%
6.4% 6.3%
6.2% 5.000 150
6.4% 6.3%
7.8%
4.000
7.3% 7.0% 6.6%
7.3%
7.3% 7.0% 3.000
6.4% 6.4% 6.9%
2.000
6.4% 50
5.2% 5.1% 5.4%
4.6% 5.0% 1.000
3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.4%

1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.7% 0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23

Global Market Outlook 2025 23

2.3.2

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.3.2 Increase exposure to real assets

Despite recent underperformance due to rising interest rates, real estate and infrastructure Real estate and
remain vital asset classes in private banking portfolios. These assets exhibit lower infrastructure offer
correlations with traditional equity and bond markets, making them valuable tools for diversification, inflation
portfolio diversification, especially during market volatility. Real estate provides stable hedges and steady
rental income, while infrastructure offers essential services, both delivering predictable
cash flows
cash flows and acting as natural hedges against inflation through contractually linked
income streams. Infrastructure’s resilience across economic cycles reinforces its role as a
foundational asset class, effectively complementing traditional investments.

The outlook for real estate and infrastructure over the next 12 months has improved, Lower rates,
supported by key macroeconomic factors. The recent global decline in interest rates rising demand
has lowered financing costs, previously a constraint on real asset investments. For for sustainable
leveraged investors, reduced debt costs improve returns, potentially driving renewed infrastructure and
activity in real estate markets. Additionally, a more stable interest rate environment
rental growth drive
could boost cross-border capital flows, increasing the attractiveness of real estate and
strong investment
infrastructure assets. Rental growth in real estate, supported by stable or declining
vacancy rates, is expected to continue outpacing inflation in high-quality assets, offering
opportunities
appealing returns for investors.

Certain real estate sectors, such as logistics, residential, and select retail, are positioned Macro trends support
for strong performance, driven by structural trends like e-commerce growth and logistics, residential
demographic changes. High construction and land costs are reducing development and renewable energy
margins, limiting new supply—particularly in the residential market—while sustaining sectors for robust
upward pressure on rents as more households opt to rent over buy. Infrastructure stands to future growth
gain from the digital transformation and energy transition. Demand is rising in sectors like
data centres and renewable energy infrastructure, further supported by policy initiatives
such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which enhances investment opportunities in
sustainable infrastructure.

Correction in real estate prices evidenced by REIT and real estate indexes seems to have ended
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31/10/2024

REITs already troughed and property prices have stablised in most markets

MSCI US REIT Index NCREIF Property Index Apartment Office Industrial

Retail MSCI US Infrastructure index
130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2022 2023 2024
REIT: Real Estate Investment Trust

24
2.3.3

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape

2.3.3 Hedge against a polarised and fragile world

In today's geopolitical landscape, marked by rising tensions and economic uncertainty, Enhance resilience
investors should consider enhancing portfolio resilience through complementary of portfolios with
strategies. Three key approaches warrant focus: structured protection strategies, structured products
gold allocation, and diversification into commodities and markets aligned with global to increase optionality
realignment. and protection
First, structured products and options offer downside protection while retaining upside
potential. These tools help manage volatility spikes and limit risks, allowing investors
to benefit from market gains. This "insurance-like" approach is increasingly valuable as
traditional asset correlations weaken during stress periods. Additionally, incorporating
long-short hedge funds adds diversification and reduces dependence on directional Gold remains a
markets, strengthening portfolio resilience. safe haven amid
geopolitical tensions
Second, gold remains a reliable portfolio stabliser and safe-haven asset. Central and economic
banks have recently added over 1,000 tons to reserves in both 2022 and 2023, reflecting uncertainty
concerns about the "weaponisation" of the global financial system, such as the freezing
of Russian foreign reserves. Investment in gold continues to grow, as its role as a hedge
against geopolitical instability and currency debasement is particularly relevant in the
current climate.

Finally, strategic diversification into commodities and countries like India and Mexico Commodities offer
provides opportunities amid U.S.-China tensions and growth in reshoring. India offers opportunities for
exposure to a rapidly growing domestic market and tech capabilities, while Mexico portfolio diversification
benefits from nearshoring trends and automotive/electronics manufacturing shifts. As in a multipolar world
the world becomes more multipolar, certain commodities and markets gain prominence.
Nations with critical minerals, advanced technologies, or strategic trade roles offer
valuable diversification. Additionally, commodities essential for the energy transition and
technological development can protect and enhance portfolio value.

The value of active investing in a shifting landscape: Gold and oil

Source: World Gold Council , IEA and Bloomberg. Data as of 30/10/2024

Diversifying into strategic commodities can improve portfolio resilience in a more fragile world

Central banks & other inst. LBMA Gold Price (US$/oz) IEA World Oil Stocks (Million barrels, LHS)
Oil price West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ($ per barrel, RHS)

1.200 2.600 1.250 85

Tons.

2.400 80
1.000 1.200
75
2.200

800 1.150 70
2.000
65
600 1.800 1.100
60
1.600
400 1.050 55

1.400
50
200 1.000
1.200 45

0 1.000 950 40
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024e Dec-15 Mar-18 Jun-20 Sep-22 Dec-24

Global Market Outlook 2025 25

 Appendix: Tables

Appendix:
Tables.
Historical returns of main asset classes.
Source: Bloomberg and Santander.

Data as of 31/11/2024
Returns Annualised returns
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 3 years 5 years 10 years
Short-term (USD) (1)
2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 5.2% 4.8% 3.9% 2.4% 1.8%

Short-term (EUR) (2) -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4%

Global Fixed Income (3) 6.8% 9.2% -4.7% -16.2% 5.7% -0.8% -4.3% -1.6% 0.2%

Fixed Income (USD) (4) 8.7% 7.5% -1.5% -13.0% 5.5% 1.5% -2.3% -0.2% 1.5%

Sovereign (USD) (5) 5.2% 5.8% -1.7% -7.8% 4.3% 2.0% -0.6% 0.4% 1.2%

Corporates (USD) (6) 14.5% 9.9% -1.0% -15.8% 8.5% 2.7% -2.0% 0.6% 2.6%

High Yield (USD) (7) 14.3% 7.1% 5.3% -11.2% 13.4% 8.1% 3.1% 4.7% 5.0%

Fixed Income (EUR) (8) 6.0% 4.0% -2.9% -17.2% 7.2% 2.2% -3.5% -1.8% 0.4%

Sovereign (EUR) (9) 6.8% 5.0% -3.5% -18.5% 7.1% 1.4% -4.3% -2.3% 0.4%

Corporates (EUR) (10) 6.2% 2.8% -1.0% -13.6% 8.2% 4.3% -1.1% -0.2% 1.1%

High Yield (EUR) (11) 12.3% 1.8% 4.2% -11.1% 12.8% 8.1% 2.7% 3.2% 3.8%

Emerging Global Fixed Income (USD) (12) 13.1% 6.5% -1.7% -15.3% 9.1% 6.9% -0.4% 1.0% 3.0%

LatAm (USD) (13) 12.3% 4.5% -2.5% -13.2% 11.1% 10.5% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3%

MSCI World (USD) 27.7% 15.9% 21.8% -18.1% 23.8% 20.6% 7.0% 12.5% 10.1%

S&P 500 (USD) 31.5% 18.4% 28.7% -18.1% 26.3% 26.9% 10.2% 15.9% 13.4%

MSCI Europe (EUR) 23.8% 5.4% 16.3% -15.1% 19.9% 3.0% 1.6% 6.2% 5.0%

MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 18.4% 18.3% -2.5% -20.1% 9.8% 10.1% -2.4% 3.6% 3.5%

MSCI Asia Pac. ex-Japan (USD) 19.2% 22.4% -2.9% -17.5% 7.4% 12.9% -1.2% 4.8% 4.6%

MSCI Latin America (USD) 17.5% -13.8% -8.1% 8.9% 32.7% -17.6% 5.5% 0.8% 0.7%

Barclays Benchmark Overnight USD Cash Index; 2) Barclays Benchmark 3mEUR Cash Index; 3) Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD; 4) Bloomberg
(1)

Barclays US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD; 5) Bloomberg Barclays US Intermediate Treasury TR Index Value Unhedged SD; 6) Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Total Return Value
Unhedged USD; 7) Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Total Return Value Unhedged USD; 8) Bloomberg Barclays EuroAgg Total Return Index Value Unhedged EUR; 9) Bloomberg
Barclays EuroAgg Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged EUR; 10) Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index Value Unhedged EUR; 11) Bloomberg Barclays Pan-
European Aggregate High Yield TR Index Value Unhedged EUR; 12) Bloomberg Barclays EM Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged USD; 13) Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets LatAm
Total Return Value Unhedged USD

26
 Appendix: Tables

Equities indices.
Source: Bloomberg and Santander.

Data as of 31/11/2024
Change Last 10 years Return Annualised return
Last 3 5 10
Price 12 months Low Range High 2022 2023 2024 years years years

US S&P 500 5,984 1,920 5.984 -19.4% 24.2% 25.5% 8.5% 14.1% 11.4%

DOW JONES INDUS. 43,911 16,285 43.911 -8.8% 13.7% 16.5% 6.7% 9.6% 9.6%

NASDAQ 19,281 4,558 19.281 -33.1% 43.4% 28.4% 6.7% 17.9% 15.2%

Europe Stoxx 50 502 2,701 4.551 -12.9% 12.7% 4.9% 1.1% 4.4% 4.1%

Eurozone (EuroStoxx) 4,754 2,787 5.083 -11.7% 19.2% 5.1% 2.8% 5.2% 4.5%

Spain (IBEX 35) 11,426 6,452 11.877 -5.6% 22.8% 13.1% 8.0% 4.5% 1.2%

France (CAC 40) 7,242 4,237 8.206 -9.5% 16.5% -4.0% 0.7% 4.2% 5.6%

Germany (DAX) 19,094 9,495 19.325 -12.3% 20.3% 14.0% 5.9% 7.7% 7.5%

United Kingdom
8,043 5,577 8.377 0.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.1% 2.0% 1.9%
(FTSE 100)

Italy (MIB) 33,762 16,198 34.750 -13.3% 28.0% 11.2% 6.8% 7.5% 5.9%

Portugal (PSI 20) 6,356 3,945 6.871 2.8% 11.7% -0.6% 3.4% 3.8% 2.1%

Switzerland (SMI) 11,704 7,808 12.876 -16.7% 3.8% 5.1% -2.2% 2.7% 2.8%

LatAm Mexico (MEXBOL) 51,097 34,555 57.386 -9.0% 18.4% -11.0% -0.2% 3.4% 1.7%

Brazil (IBOVESPA) 127,698 40,406 136.004 4.7% 22.3% -4.8% 6.3% 3.7% 9.4%

Argentina (MERVAL) 2,012,041 8,490 2.012.041 142.0% 360.1% 116.4% 176.7% 130.4% 70.4%

Chile (IPSA) 6,509 3,487 6.644 22.1% 17.8% 5.0% 13.2% 7.7% 5.2%

Asia Japan (NIKKEI) 38,722 15,576 40.369 -9.4% 28.2% 15.7% 9.4% 10.8% 8.3%

Hong Kong
19,823 14,687 32.887 -15.5% -13.8% 16.3% -7.8% -5.5% -1.9%
(HANG SENG)

South Korea (KOSPI) 2,417 1,755 3.297 -24.9% 18.7% -9.0% -6.6% 2.5% 2.2%

India (Sensex) 77,691 23,002 84.300 4.4% 18.7% 7.5% 8.6% 14.0% 10.7%

China (CSI) 4,111 2,877 5.352 -21.6% -11.4% 19.8% -5.6% 1.0% 4.8%

World MSCI WORLD 3,773 1,547 3.773 -19.5% 21.8% 19.1% 5.4% 10.7% 8.2%

Global Market Outlook 2025 27

 Appendix: Tables

Equities by style and sector.

Source: Bloomberg and Santander.

Data as of 13/11/2024
Change Last 10 years Return Annualised return Ratios
Divi-
Last 12 PE dend
Price months Low Range High 2022 2023 2024 3 years 5 years 10 years Ratio Yield

MSCI World 11,919 4,204 11,919 -18.1% 23.8% 20.6% 7.0% 12.5% 10.1% 21.69 1.72

MSCI World
Style High Dividend 2,782 1,352 2,868 -4.7% 9.1% 11.2% 6.0% 6.8% 6.5% 15.13 3.52
Yield

MSCI World
4,760 1,454 4,760 -17.8% 11.8% 32.4% 5.9% 13.3% 12.5% 22.32 1.68
Momentum

MSCI World
5,105 1,456 5,114 -22.2% 32.4% 22.2% 8.2% 15.3% 13.0% 26.31 1.27
Quality

MSCI World
Minimum 5,254 2,510 5,286 -9.8% 7.4% 14.6% 4.4% 6.0% 7.7% 18.97 2.24
Volatility

MSCI World
14,304 6,429 14,345 -6.5% 11.5% 16.0% 7.0% 8.6% 7.0% 16.11 2.78
Value

MSCI World
738 318 738 -18.8% 15.8% 12.8% 0.6% 8.4% 8.0% 20.93 1.96
Small Cap

MSCI World
11,755 3,389 11,755 -29.2% 37.0% 25.0% 6.5% 15.6% 12.8% 32.04 0.74
Growth

Sector Energy 503 164 508 46.0% -2.5% 9.3% 17.0% 10.2% 3.4% 11.75 4.01

Materials 597 229 649 -10.7% -12.9% 1.4% 1.8% 8.6% 6.9% 18.53 2.52

Industrials 649 238 649 -13.2% -18.8% 19.1% 8.0% 10.9% 9.6% 21.92 1.68

Consumer
623 225 623 -33.4% -26.0% 16.4% 1.0% 11.9% 10.9% 21.44 1.22
Discretionary

Consumer
478 273 504 -6.1% -2.3% 7.1% 2.2% 5.2% 5.8% 19.78 2.77
Staples

Health Care 548 246 598 -5.4% -3.6% 7.8% 3.0% 9.1% 8.1% 21.92 1.64

Financials 345 125 345 -10.2% -13.9% 28.8% 9.5% 11.7% 8.8% 13.65 2.70

Information
959 152 959 -30.8% -34.8% 32.6% 12.7% 22.8% 19.9% 34.02 0.65
Technology

Real Estate 2,145 1,283 2,450 -25.9% -9.2% 7.3% -2.1% 2.8% 4.9% 35.83 3.41

Communica-
247 106 247 -36.9% -31.3% 32.1% 5.1% 11.9% 7.9% 20.51 1.17
tion Services

Utilities 364 186 384 -4.7% -0.3% 16.3% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 16.62 3.40

28
 Appendix: Tables

Government Bonds.
Source: Bloomberg and Santander.

Data as of 13/11/2024
10 years
Interest rates Yield curve
Interest rate Change Last 10 years change (bp) 10 years steepness
Rating
(S&P) C. Bank* 2 years 10 years 12 months Low Range High Month YtD 10-2 years

Developed

U.S. AA+ 5.00% 4.34% 4.41% 0.53% 4.93% 53 9 0.07

Germany AAA 3.50% 2.16% 2.38% -0.70% 2.84% 36 -6 0.22

France AA- 3.50% 2.39% 3.16% -0.40% 3.43% 60 14 0.77

Italy BBB 3.50% 2.68% 3.67% 0.54% 4.78% -4 -57 0.99

Spain A 3.50% 2.47% 3.13% 0.05% 3.93% 14 -34 0.66

United
AA 5.00% 4.51% 4.52% 0.10% 4.52% 98 34 0.01
Kingdom

Greece BBB- 3.50% 2.21% 3.27% 0.61% 15.42% 21 -42 1.06

Portugal A- 3.50% 2.24% 2.88% 0.03% 4.19% 22 -26 0.63

Switzerland AAA 1.25% 0.27% 0.37% -1.05% 1.58% -29 -46 0.10

Japan A+ 0.25% 0.53% 1.05% -0.27% 1.07% 44 38 0.52

Emerging Markets

Brazil BB 10.75% 13.38% 12.81% 6.49% 16.51% 245 191 -0.57

Mexico BBB 10.75% 10.14% 10.10% 5.24% 10.20% 114 69 -0.04

Chile A 5.50% 5.05% 5.71% 2.19% 6.79% 24 -11 0.66

Argentina CCC 40.00% n.d. n.d. 0.00% 0.00% n.d. n.d. n.d.

Colombia BB+ 10.75% 8.52% 10.78% 5.39% 13.79% 82 -2 2.26

Turkey B+ 50.00% 39.15% 28.16% 6.98% 28.47% 450 387 -10.99

Poland A- 5.75% 5.04% 5.76% 1.16% 8.37% 55 24 0.72

China A+ 2.29% 1.42% 2.07% 2.07% 3.91% -49 -62 0.65

India BBB- 6.50% 6.72% 6.84% 5.84% 8.02% -34 -44 0.13

*Central Bank lending facility, except in Eurozone countries, where the marginal deposit facility is used.

Global Market Outlook 2025 29

 Appendix: Tables

Currencies.
Source: Bloomberg and Santander.

Data as of 13/11/2024
Change Last 10 years Annualised return
Last Price 12 months Low Range High 2024 3 years 5 years 10 years

EUR/USD 1.0624 0.98 1.24 -3.8% -2.5% -0.7% -1.6%

EUR/GBP 0.83 0.70 0.92 4.0% -0.8% -0.5% 0.4%

EUR/CHF 0.94 0.93 1.20 -1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%

EUR/JPY 165 114 172 5.7% -7.5% -6.2% -1.2%

EUR/PLN 4.34 4.04 4.86 0.0% 2.2% -0.3% -0.3%

GBP/USD 1.27 1.12 1.57 0.1% -1.7% -0.2% -2.0%

USD/CHF 0.88 0.84 1.03 -4.7% 1.4% 2.3% 0.8%

USD/JPY 155 101 161 -8.9% -9.7% -6.9% -2.8%

USD/MXN 20.48 14.75 24.17 -17.1% 0.1% -1.2% -4.1%

USD/ARS 997.80 8.47 997.80 -19.0% -53.5% -43.1% -37.9%

USD/CLP 985 594 985 -10.8% -6.7% -4.0% -4.9%

USD/BRL 5.76 2.66 5.79 -15.6% -1.8% -6.2% -7.6%

USD/COP 4,452 2,376 4,940 -13.4% -4.4% -5.0% -7.0%

USD/CNY 7.21 6.20 7.32 -1.5% -4.0% -0.5% -1.6%

EUR/SEK 11.57 9.17 11.88 -3.8% -4.7% -1.6% -2.2%

EUR/NOK 11.77 8.45 11.97 -4.6% -5.4% -3.0% -3.2%

Commodities.
Source: Bloomberg and Santander.

Change Last 10 years Return Annualised return

Last
Price 12 months Low Range High 2022 2023 2024 3 years 5 years 10 years

Crude Oil (Brent) 72.9 18 124 5.5% -4.6% -6.0% -3.9% 3.0% -0.5%

Crude Oil (W. Texas) 68.8 19 115 6.7% -10.7% -4.0% -5.2% 3.9% -1.0%

Gold 2,614.0 1,060 2,749 -0.1% 13.4% 26.2% 11.8% 12.1% 8.2%

Copper 9,142.0 4,561 10,375 -13.9% 2.2% 6.8% -2.0% 9.5% 3.1%

CRB Index 279.4 117 317 19.5% -5.0% 5.9% 5.6% 9.2% 0.5%

Natural Gas (USA) 2.9 3 6 33.5% -32.4% -18.6% -5.7% 1.0% -5.5%

Natural Gas (Europe) 43.4 15 107 8.5% -57.6% 34.0% -16.9% 22.6% 6.9%

30
"Periodic table"
for asset returns

Calendar Year Returns

Reference
Asset Class 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
Index

US Equities S&P 500 TR 16.7% 12.1% 14.8% 37.3% 2.6% 31.5% 18.4% 38.5% 22.0% 28.3% 26.9% +
Spain Japan Global High Emerging Spain US Equities US Equities Commodities Commodities Japan US Equities
Government Equities Yield Markets Government Equities
Equities

Japan Topix TR 13.7% 6.4% 12.0% 22.4% 2.4% 28.2% 18.3% 28.7% 0.1% 28.0% 20.6%
Equities US Equities Europe US Equities Global Eurozone Europe Emerging US Equities Liquidity Spain Global
Equities Equities Government Equities Markets EUR Equities Equities
Equities

Spain Ibex35 TR 10.3% 1.6% 11.2% 22.2% -0.4% 27.7% 15.9% 23.2% -2.0% 26.3% 17.9%
Equities Eurozone Spain Emerging Japan Liquidity Global Global Europe Spain US Equities Spain
Government Government Markets Equities EUR Equities Equities Equities Equities Equities
Equities

Emerging MSCI EM TR 10.3% 1.4% 9.7% 21.8% -1.2% 18.4% 8.0% 21.8% -2.5% 23.8% 17.0%
Markets Japan US Equities Commodities US Equities Europe IG Emerging Global High Global Japan Global Japan
Equities Equities Markets Yield Equities Equities Equities Equities
Equities

Europe Eurostoxx50 8.6% 0.3% 7.5% 11.3% -3.3% 18.1% 7.4% 12.7% -9.5% 22.2% 10.8%
Equities TR Spain Eurozone Global Spain Global High Japan Japan Japan Europe Europe Commodities
Equities Government Equities Equities Yield Equities Equities Equities Equities Equities

Commodities RJ/CRB Total 8.3% -0.1% 4.8% 10.2% -4.4% 16.6% 4.4% 10.8% -13.2% 13.4% 10.70%
Return Index Europe IG Liquidity Europe IG Global High US Equities Spain Spain Spain Global High Global High Emerging
EUR Yield Equities Government Equities Yield Yield Markets
Equities

Returns
Global MSCI World 4.9% -0.5% 4.2% 9.2% -8.7% 13.7% 3.0% 1.4% -14% 9.80% 7.8%
Equities TR Global Europe IG Spain Europe Global Global High Eurozone Global High Europe IG Emerging Global High
Equities Government Equities Equities Yield Government Yield Markets Yield
Equities

Europe IG ERL0 TR 4.0% -0.9% 4.0% 2.5% -10.7% 11.8% 2.7% -0.5% -17.7% 8.0% 7.5%
Europe Global Eurozone Europe IG Commodities Commodities Europe IG Liquidity Spain Europe IG Europe
Equities Equities Government EUR Government Equities

Liquidity Eonia TR 0.1% -3.5% 3.7% 1.7% -11.5% 8.6% -0.5% -1.1% -17.8% 6.9% 4.2%
EUR Liquidity Spain Europe Commodities Spain Spain Liquidity Europe IG Eurozone Spain Europe IG
EUR Equities Equities Equities Government EUR Government Government

Global High HW00 TR -0.1% -4.2% 2.6% 1.1% -12.0% 6.3% -3.2% -2.50% -18.1% 5.6% 3.4%
Yield Global High Global High Spain Spain Europe Europe IG Europe Emerging US Equities Eurozone Liquidity
Yield Yield Equities Government Equities Equities Markets Government EUR
Equities

Spain SPAIN 10 YR -2.2% -14.9% 0.3% -0.4% -14.6% 3.0% -9.3% -2.7% -18.1% 3.4% 2.5%
Government Emerging Emerging Japan Liquidity Emerging Eurozone Commodities Eurozone Global Liquidity Spain
Markets Markets Equities EUR Markets Government Government Equities EUR Government
Equities Equities Equities

Eurozone GERMANY -17.9% -23.4% -0.3% -1.4% -16.0% -0.4% -12.7% -3.1% -20.1% 22.0% 0.3%
Government 10 YR Commodities Commodities Liquidity Eurozone Japan Liquidity Spain Spain Emerging Commodities Eurozone
EUR Government Equities EUR Equities Government Markets Government
Equities
-
*Data as of 31/11/2024
Total return indices track both the capital gains as well as any cash distributions, such as dividends or interest, attributed to the components of the index.

Global Market Outlook 2025 31

Global
CIO Office. Kamran Butt

Investment
Global CIO at Santander Private Banking

Juan de Dios Sánchez-Roselly, CFA

Global Investment Strategy at Santander Private Banking

Strategy Cristina González Iregui

Global Investment Strategy at Santander Private Banking

Nicolás Pérez de la Blanca, CFA, CAIA

Santander
CIO at Santander Private Banking International

Michelle Chan

Private Banking
Macro Strategist at Santander Private Banking
International

Olivia Estrugo
Analyst at Santander Private Banking International

Álvaro Galiñanes, miAX, CEFA

CIO at Santander Private Banking España

Alfonso García Yubero, CIIA, CESGA®, CEFA

ED Director de Análisis y Estrategia Santander Private
Banking España

Felipe Arrizubieta
VP Análisis y Estrategia Santander Private Banking España

Kevin Esteban Iglesias

Research & Business Intelligence Analyst Santander
Private Banking España

Gustavo Schwartzmann
MD of Discretionary Portfolio Management at Santander
Private Banking Brazil

Christiano Clemente
CIO at Santander Private Banking Brazil

Priscila Deliberalli
Head of Economics at Santander Private Banking Brazil

Fernando Buendía
Head of Products & Investments UHNW at Banco
Santander México

Bruno Almeida
Oferta de Poupança e Investimento at Banco Santander
Portugal

Piotr Tukendorf, CFA

Portfolio Manager at Santander Bank Polska S.A.

Antonio Uriel
Santander Private Banking Argentina

Míriam Thaler
CIO | Head of Products & Investments at Banco Santander
International SA

Joaquín Beristain Cisternas

Head of Investment Advisory at Santander Private Banking
Chile

32
 Important Legal Notice:

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Global Market Outlook 2025 33