Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 935 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 99.0
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 92,514

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 7.4% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 14.5% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 18.6% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.1 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 6.8%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 62.7
Latest P/E (x) 73.6
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Equity Share Capital 62 63 63 63 63 92 92 92 93 95
Reserves 5,431 6,184 6,202 6,968 7,269 13,723 14,442 15,050 16,184 15,962
Borrowings 1,324 1,354 787 1,068 1,141 1,586 1,634 1,412 1,600 3,477
Other Liabilities 2,641 2,294 2,499 2,362 2,408 3,072 4,050 4,521 4,886 8,345
Total 9,458 9,895 9,551 10,461 10,881 18,473 20,218 21,075 22,762 27,879

Net Block 4,922 4,662 4,573 4,798 4,913 11,656 12,023 12,599 13,070 19,358
Capital Work in Progress 47 39 63 135 424 95 113 247 295 190
Investments 622 1,366 1,451 1,161 1,188 1,323 806 797 1,433 871
Other Assets 3,867 3,828 3,465 4,366 4,355 5,399 7,276 7,431 7,965 7,461
Total 9,458 9,895 9,551 10,461 10,881 18,473 20,218 21,075 22,762 27,879

Working Capital 1,226 1,534 965 2,005 1,947 2,327 3,226 2,910 3,079 -884
Debtors 616 592 592 648 681 922 761 835 798 897
Inventory 1,625 1,629 1,453 1,448 1,609 1,712 2,249 2,267 2,702 2,769
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 28 33 32 35 34 35 24 25 21 22
Inventory Turnover 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8
Debt/Equity 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Return on Equity 5% 0% 7% 8% 6% 4% 7% 7% 8% 8%
Return on Capital Employed 9% 4% 11% 10% 9% 6% 9% 9% 11% 9%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Trailing
Sales 7,993 6,637 6,780 6,815 7,252 9,637 11,602 12,425 13,783 15,206 16,297
% Growth YOY -17% 2% 1% 6% 33% 20% 7% 11% 10%
Expenses 7,201 6,271 5,988 5,976 6,466 8,345 10,058 10,707 11,927 12,922 13,802
Material Cost (% of Sales) 43% 54% 47% 55% 55% 56% 55% 51% 52% 48% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 9% 3% 9% 3% 3% 2% 8% 9% 11% 12% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 24% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 14% 13% 13%
Operating Profit 792 366 791 839 786 1,292 1,544 1,719 1,856 2,284 2,496
Operating Profit Margin 10% 6% 12% 12% 11% 13% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15%
Other Income -77 38 88 73 124 -163 91 88 328 -81 -168
Other Income as % of Sales -1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.7% -1.7% 0.8% 0.7% 2.4% -0.5% -1.0%
Depreciation 133 117 126 116 123 242 255 278 304 377 499
Interest 82 117 92 43 52 78 69 73 87 130 268
Interest Coverage(Times) 7 2 8 19 15 11 20 21 22 14 7
Profit before tax (PBT) 500 170 662 753 735 809 1,311 1,456 1,794 1,696 1,560
% Growth YOY -66% 290% 14% -2% 10% 62% 11% 23% -5%
PBT Margin 6% 3% 10% 11% 10% 8% 11% 12% 13% 11% 10%
Tax 216 200 198 186 261 274 317 377 447 395 304
Net profit 284 -30 464 567 474 535 994 1,079 1,347 1,301 1,257
% Growth YOY -111% -1633% 22% -16% 13% 86% 9% 25% -3%
Net Profit Margin 4% 0% 7% 8% 7% 6% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8%
EPS 4.4 -0.5 7.1 8.7 7.2 5.6 10.4 11.3 14.0 13.1 12.7
% Growth YOY -110% -1633% 22% -16% -23% 86% 9% 24% -6%
Price to earning 33.2 -259.5 21.0 29.5 27.9 52.1 60.8 68.1 50.2 82.4 73.6
Price 147 120 149 256 201 291 631 768 700 1,083 935
Dividend Payout 5.6% 0.0% 38.1% 29.9% 38.7% 54.1% 43.6% 59.6% 65.2% 64.2%
Market Cap 9,435 7,849 9,746 16,750 13,203 27,871 60,392 73,484 67,543 ###
Retained Earnings 268 -30 287 397 291 246 561 436 468 466
Buffett's $1 Test 28.8

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 7.4% 12.2% 16.0% 9.4%
PBT Growth 14.5% 14.4% 18.2% 9.0%
PBT Margin 9.5% 11.0% 11.1% 12.0%
Price to Earning 16.6 53.0 62.7 66.9
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 418 116 741 356 210 1,082 1,656 1,516 1,461 1,937 9,493
% Growth YoY -72% 539% -52% -41% 416% 53% -8% -4% 33%
Cash from Investing Activity -207 145 145 -31 53 -622 -347 -1,317 -834 -1,911 -4,925
Cash from Financing Activity -392 -282 -816 -30 -224 -308 -426 -995 -714 256 -3,932
Net Cash Flow -182 -21 70 294 39 152 884 -796 -87 281 635
CFO/Sales 5% 2% 11% 5% 3% 11% 14% 12% 11% 13%
CFO/Net Profit 147% -383% 160% 63% 44% 202% 167% 140% 109% 149%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 103 -96 377 -209 -397 145 500 -122 223 1,113 1,637
Average FCF (3 Years) 405
FCF Growth YoY -193% -494% -156% 90% -137% 245% -124% -283% 398%
FCF/Sales 1% -1% 6% -3% -5% 2% 4% -1% 2% 7%
FCF/Net Profit 41% 1732% 97% -42% -97% 32% 58% -13% 19% 97%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Sales Growth -17.0% 2.2% 0.5% 6.4% 32.9% 20.4% 7.1% 10.9%
PBT Growth -66.0% 289.9% 13.8% -2.4% 10.2% 62.0% 11.1% 23.2%
Net Profit Growth -110.6% ### 22.3% -16.5% 12.9% 85.7% 8.6% 24.8%
Dividend Growth 920.8% 4.4% 0.0% 6.4% 57.7% 50.0% 49.4% 40.8%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -72.2% 539.1% -52.0% -41.0% 415.7% 53.1% -8.5% -3.6%
Free Cash Flow Growth -193.0% ### ### 89.6% ### 244.5% ### ###

Operating Margin 9.9% 5.5% 11.7% 12.3% 10.8% 13.4% 13.3% 13.8% 13.5%
PBT Margin 6.3% 2.6% 9.8% 11.1% 10.1% 8.4% 11.3% 11.7% 13.0%
Net Margin 3.6% -0.5% 6.8% 8.3% 6.5% 5.6% 8.6% 8.7% 9.8%

Debtor Days 28.1 32.6 31.9 34.7 34.3 34.9 24.0 24.5 21.1
Inventory Turnover 4.9 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.5 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.1
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1
Debt/Equity 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Debt/Assets 14.0% 13.7% 8.2% 10.2% 10.5% 8.6% 8.1% 6.7% 7.0%
Interest Coverage (Times) 7.1 2.5 8.2 18.6 15.0 11.4 20.1 21.0 21.6
Return on Equity 5.2% -0.5% 7.4% 8.1% 6.5% 3.9% 6.8% 7.1% 8.3%
Return on Capital Employed 8.5% 3.8% 10.7% 9.8% 9.3% 5.8% 8.5% 9.2% 10.5%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 103 -96 377 -209 -397 145 500 -122 223
Mar/24
10.3%
-5.5%
-3.4%
-5.9%
32.5%
398.2%

15.0%
11.2%
8.6%

21.5
5.5
0.8
0.2
12.5%
14.1
8.1%
9.3%
1,113
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
20% Profit Margin 12% Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend
15% 10% Numbers > 20% long te
8% company has zero/marg
10% competitor
6%
5% 4%
2%
0% Check for a rising trend and/or
0%
consistency. Compare with9 a close
-15
-5% competitor -16 -17 -18 -1 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 -2% 15 6 7 8
n n n n n n n n n n - -1 -1 -1
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

16,000 Revenue 500% Revenue and P

Check for a rising trend. Check for a
14,000 Compare gr
12,000 0% tor.

10,000 -500%
8,000
6,000 -1000%
4,000
-1500%
2,000
- -2000%
-15 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 Revenue Grow
n n n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Net Profit Gr

2,000 Profit Over Time Operating an

2,500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive nu
2,000 and which are rising o
1,500
1,500 time.
1,000 1,000
500 500
-
-
-500 15 16 -17 -18
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 - -
-500 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1,000Jan Jan Jan Jan J
n n n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash F

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Operating Margin 10% 6% 12% 12% 11% 13% 13% 14% 13%
PBT Margin 6% 3% 10% 11% 10% 8% 11% 12% 13%
Net Margin 4% 0% 7% 8% 7% 6% 9% 9% 10%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
ROE 5% 0% 7% 8% 6% 4% 7% 7% 8%
ROCE 9% 4% 11% 10% 9% 6% 9% 9% 11%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
Revenue Growth -17% 2% 1% 6% 33% 20% 7% 11% 10%
PBT Growth -66% 290% 14% -2% 10% 62% 11% 23% -5%
Net Profit Growth -111% -1633% 22% -16% 13% 86% 9% 25% -3%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Revenue 7,993 6,637 6,780 6,815 7,252 9,637 11,602 12,425 13,783
PBT 500 170 662 753 735 809 1,311 1,456 1,794
Net Profit 284 -30 464 567 474 535 994 1,079 1,347

Cash Flows
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Operating Cash Flow 418 116 741 356 210 1,082 1,656 1,516 1,461
Free Cash Flow 103 -96 377 -209 -397 145 500 -122 223
 Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the
company has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close Note: Please ignore the dates
competitor on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
n-1 n-1 n-1 n-1 n-1 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2
a Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competi-
% tor.

%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free

0 Check Cash Flow
for positive numbers
0 and which are rising over
0 time.
0
0

0 15 16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24

- -
0Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/24
15%
11%
9%

Mar/24
8%
9%

Mar/24
15,206
1,696
1,301

Mar/24
1,937
1,113
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 43% 54% 47% 55% 55% 56% 55% 51% 52% 48%
Change in Inventory 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 9% 3% 9% 3% 3% 2% 8% 9% 11% 12%
Employee Cost 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Selling and Admin Cost 24% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 14% 13% 13%
Other Expenses 4% 10% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4%
Operating Profit 9% 6% 12% 11% 10% 14% 11% 13% 9% 13%
Other Income -1% 1% 1% 1% 2% -2% 1% 1% 2% -1%
Depreciation 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Interest 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 6% 3% 10% 11% 10% 8% 11% 12% 13% 11%
Tax 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Net Profit 3% 0% 6% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8%
Dividend Amount 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 5%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 57% 62% 65% 67% 67% 74% 71% 71% 71% 57%
Borrowings 14% 14% 8% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 12%
Other Liabilities 28% 23% 26% 23% 22% 17% 20% 21% 21% 30%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 52% 47% 48% 46% 45% 63% 59% 60% 57% 69%
Capital Work in Progress 0% 0% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Investments 7% 14% 15% 11% 11% 7% 4% 4% 6% 3%
Other Assets 41% 39% 36% 42% 40% 29% 36% 35% 35% 27%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3%
Inventory 17% 16% 15% 14% 15% 9% 11% 11% 12% 10%
Cash & Bank 6% 5% 6% 12% 9% 9% 15% 12% 12% 9%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 465 415 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 535 427 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 615 438 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 677 430 4 FY21
5 FY22 744 422 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 819 415 Sales 16% 6 FY23
7 FY24 860 389 PBT 18% 7 FY24
8 FY25 903 365 FCF -223% 8 FY25
9 FY26 948 342 9 FY26
10 FY27 995 320 10 FY27
10 9,954 3,205 10
Intrinsic Value 12,997 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 92,514 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 612% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
485 433 Year 4-6 15%
583 464 Year 7-10 10%
699 498 Discount Rate 12%
804 511
924 525
1,063 539
1,169 529
1,286 520
1,415 510
1,557 501
23,349 7,518
Intrinsic Value 18,376
Current Mkt. Cap. 92,514
Premium/(Discount) to IV 403%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name NSUMER PRODUCTS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/24 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,051.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 11.2 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 32,463 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 92,514 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
NSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Mar/24

1,051.1
8.5
22.4

55,993
92,514

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 405 9,209

92,514
Years 1-5 6-10 10%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (2,351)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 465 15% 415
2 535 15% 427
3 615 15% 438
4 708 15% 450
5 814 15% 462
6 911 12% 462
7 1,021 12% 462
8 1,143 12% 462
9 1,280 12% 462
10 1,434 12% 462

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 1,463
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 4,500
Terminal Value 4,709
Total PV of Cash Flows 9,209
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 92,514

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
CTS LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Particulars Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 248 -6 389 496 408 460 857
Net Profit Margin 3% 0% 6% 7% 6% 5% 7%
Return on Equity 5% 0% 7% 8% 6% 4% 7%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 3,573
Current P/E (x) 80.4
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 71,455
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 23,007
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 92,514

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
D
Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
936 1,204 1,150 19% 23%
8% 9% 8%
7% 8% 8%
 Intrinsic Value Range
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho 12,997 18,376 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 32,463 55,993 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
understand this business?
DCF 9,209
Expected Return 23,007 Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 92,514 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
Explanation: Considering the above the-envelope".
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
if the current market cap is within this IV decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ve answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24
Sales 3,327 3,363 3,475 3,619 3,741 3,734 3,804 3,927 4,352 4,214
% Growth YOY 12% 11% 9% 9% 16% 13%
Expenses 2,870 2,929 3,021 3,107 3,196 3,197 3,232 3,297 3,685 3,588
Operating Profit 457 434 454 512 545 537 572 630 667 626
Other Income 11 141 128 49 53 75 -32 -177 22 19
Depreciation 73 73 75 83 82 94 86 116 148 149
Interest 16 20 24 28 26 28 33 43 94 99
Profit before tax 379 482 482 450 489 491 422 294 448 397
PBT Margin 11% 14% 14% 12% 13% 13% 11% 7% 10% 9%
% Growth YOY 29% 2% -13% -35% -8% -19%
Tax 103 127 113 105 131 132 106 26 134 38
Net profit 255 328 352 269 317 338 279 217 290 364
% Growth YOY 24% 3% -21% -19% -8% 8%
OPM 14% 13% 13% 14% 15% 14% 15% 16% 15% 15%
COMPANY NAME TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 98.99
Face Value 1
Current Price 934.6
Market Capitalization 92514.43

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Sales 7993.39 6636.54 6779.55 6815.35 7251.5 9637.42
Raw Material Cost 3,416.05 3,601.49 3,165.65 3,746.11 4,022.05 5,402.90
Change in Inventory 51.25 -20.11 0.69 46.80 14.41 -7.78
Power and Fuel 84.78 81.26 83.19 87.07 89.28 103.84
Other Mfr. Exp 691.21 190.32 597.61 194.69 209.59 238.47
Employee Cost 857.67 805.06 834.95 821.37 806.3 884.8
Selling and admin 1919.35 922.88 926.92 857.64 968.23 1278.16
Other Expenses 283.38 649.51 380.79 316.36 384.55 429.32
Other Income -77.36 37.54 88.4 73.02 123.84 -163.2
Depreciation 133.1 116.79 126.04 116.04 122.57 241.71
Interest 81.86 116.9 91.53 42.76 52.47 77.86
Profit before tax 499.88 169.76 661.96 753.13 734.71 809.38
Tax 215.52 200.01 198.31 185.87 260.88 274.19
Net profit 247.82 -5.52 389.44 495.56 408.19 459.76
Dividend Amount 13.91 142 148.31 148.31 157.78 248.83

Quarters
Report Date Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
Sales 3326.83 3363.05 3474.55 3618.73 3741.21 3733.78
Expenses 2869.53 2929.21 3020.89 3107.06 3196.18 3196.69
Other Income 11.37 140.53 127.5 48.93 52.59 75.28
Depreciation 72.92 73.14 75.16 82.86 81.95 93.93
Interest 16.27 19.55 23.68 27.66 26.23 27.56
Profit before tax 379.48 481.68 482.32 450.08 489.44 490.88
Tax 102.97 126.7 112.87 104.5 130.87 131.7
Net profit 255.46 327.96 351.76 268.59 316.59 338.24
Operating Profit 457.3 433.84 453.66 511.67 545.03 537.09

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital 61.84 63.11 63.11 63.11 63.11 92.16
Reserves 5430.95 6184.06 6202.39 6968.49 7268.58 13722.7
Borrowings 1,324.02 1,354.05 786.56 1,067.58 1,141.10 1,586.32
Other Liabilities 2640.77 2293.54 2499.35 2361.58 2407.89 3071.86
Total 9457.58 9894.76 9551.41 10460.76 10880.68 18473.04
Net Block 4921.69 4661.8 4572.59 4798.18 4913.31 11656.04
Capital Work in Progress 47.17 39.42 63.19 135.16 424.41 95.35
Investments 622.02 1,365.94 1451.04 1161.33 1187.66 1322.85
Other Assets 3866.7 3827.6 3464.59 4366.09 4355.3 5398.8
Total 9457.58 9894.76 9551.41 10460.76 10880.68 18473.04
Receivables 616.09 592.43 592.45 648.28 680.55 922.41
Inventory 1,625.30 1,629.01 1,452.96 1,448.31 1,608.54 1,712.03
Cash & Bank 544.24 501.03 574.82 1238.14 1033.61 1621.46
No. of Equity Shares 618398570 631129729 631129729 631129729 631129729 921551715
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Cash from Operating Activity 417.81 115.98 741.2 355.58 209.87 1082.23
Cash from Investing Activity -207.05 144.62 145.05 -31.1 53.17 -622.04
Cash from Financing Activity -392.38 -281.8 -815.84 -30.39 -223.73 -308.33
Net Cash Flow -181.62 -21.2 70.41 294.09 39.31 151.86

PRICE: 146.97 119.76 148.7 255.57 201.45 291.23

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 64.20 65.54 65.54 65.54 65.54 95.70
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

11602.03 12425.37 13783.16 15205.85
6,367.79 6,323.22 7,107.06 7,364.06
149.54 39.78 273.88 121.60
97.36 123.9 149.43 156.9
941.75 1139.59 1578.2 1768.03
970.23 1048 1120.36 1258.59
1421.46 1691.83 1785.26 1927.15
409.22 419.83 460.26 568.62
90.73 88 328.33 -81.42
254.74 278.01 304.08 377.15
68.69 72.78 87.16 129.81
1311.06 1455.99 1793.56 1695.72
317.27 377.04 447.04 394.73
856.69 935.78 1203.77 1150.33
373.25 557.57 785 738.42

Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24

3803.92 3926.94 4352.07 4214.45
3231.54 3297.34 3684.69 3588.16
-31.94 -177.35 22.07 18.8
85.51 115.76 148 149.33
33.19 42.83 93.60 98.69
421.74 293.66 447.85 397.07
106.21 25.95 133.7 37.73
278.87 216.63 290.32 364.42
572.38 629.6 667.38 626.29

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

92.16 92.16 92.9 95.28
14442.35 15049.78 16183.81 15961.51
1,633.55 1,412.01 1,600.04 3,477.22
 4049.76 4520.92 4885.74 8344.78
20217.82 21074.87 22762.49 27878.79
12023.13 12599.35 13070.04 19357.9
112.85 246.97 294.9 189.6
805.89 797.28 1432.97 870.55
7275.95 7431.27 7964.58 7460.74
20217.82 21074.87 22762.49 27878.79
761.32 835.15 798.33 896.75
2,249.16 2,266.51 2,701.67 2,769.35
3074.88 2599.89 2796.94 2454.49
921551715 921551715 929011650 952834816

1 1 1 1

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

1656.37 1515.81 1461.29 1936.68
-346.5 -1317.11 -833.61 -1910.77
-426.03 -994.77 -714.4 255.55
883.84 -796.07 -86.72 281.46

631.06 767.86 700.15 1082.74

95.70 95.70 96.47 98.95

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