Vietnam’s Economy: Overview and

Assessments of Prospects
Tran Dinh Thien1

1
Vietnam Institute of Economics, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences.
Email: trandinhthien09@gmail.com

Received on 5 November 2019. Revised on 12 November 2019. Accepted on 18 November 2019.

Abstract: Since 2007, Vietnam has gained considerable achievements with regard to
economic development such as the attraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) or
international trade growth at a high level. However, the achievements still cont ain many
uncertainties, entailing the decline in economic growth. The period of 2018 -2019 witnessed
the “abnormal” positive growth of Vietnam’s economy while the regional and global
economies were experiencing adverse impacts from the “US-China trade war” (begun with
the “battlefield” of trade and now spreading to other “battlefields” such as technology and
finance) as well as geopolitical turmoil in numerous hot spots. This positive growth is not
something random but the result of a strong restructuring process that Vietnam had made
efforts to implement in the previous stage. In the context that the world is currently going
through many changes, it is a “strong dose of reagent” for the country’s goal of becoming an
upper-middle-income country by 2035.

Keywords: Economic growth, foreign direct investment, inflation, restructuring.

Subject classification: Economics

1. Overview of the period of 2007 - 2019 narrow the gap between it and other leading
economies in the region.
Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade In fact, Vietnam has been, for years,
Organisation (WTO) in January 2007 has seen as a “success story in attracting FDI”
opened enormous opportunities for the and being able to maintain its high
commercial growth (Figure 1). These
country’s economy. The consequent boom
factors have created the two most
in trade and foreign direct investment led to important growing motivations for the
the possibility of speeding up the economic country’s economy during the period of
growth. Vietnam would be able to quickly đổi mới, or renovation.

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Figure 1: Strong FDI and International Merchandise Trade

Vietnam Inward FDI

Vietnam International Merchandise Trade Performance

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

However, there was another side of the coin (Figure 2) have made it hard to control the
of the story: the sudden increase and decrease macro stability. This pushed the economy into
of FDI flows as well as import and export a long-lasting unstable state and growth decline.

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 Tran Dinh Thien

Figure 2: The Growth of FDI and International Trade are Weird

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

This fact has inner reasons: Vietnam has potential opportunities into development
not been well prepared (with regard to pressure and challenges, which were hard to
infrastructure, human resource, governance overcome. Figure 3 indicates that
and macro regulation) for its integration in Vietnam’s economy soon fell into the
order to turn the opportunities into real prolonged instability, abnormal inflation
development benefits. On the contrary, in increase and GDP growth decline in line
the condition of a fast open-door economy, with the “unexpected” growth of FDI and
the poor internal capability has turned import-export.

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Figure 3: Vietnam’s Economic Growth and Inflation in Period of 2002-2012

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

That Vietnam’s economy fell into essence, is the way to re-start market reforms
difficulties right after joining the WTO was in new circumstance with an aim to
really unconventionally. Not so many changing the system of resource distribution,
people might think that the accession to restoring the macro stability and improving
organisation could lead to such a situation the growth rate.
of developmental, which was totally However, the process was challenged with
contradictory to everyone’s prediction and numerous difficulties and progressed in a
expectation. Vietnam was not able to make slow manner. The economy has remained
use of opportunities for integration to move unstable. GDP growth rate decreased and
forward and narrow the gap with other troughed in 2012 and was not yet able to
leading economies in the region, which was return to the 2010 level in 2016 (Figure 4).
so well done by China, the country joining It was not until 2017 that Vietnam’s
the WTO five years earlier than it. economy started to be improved. Over the
Since 2011, Vietnam has put into next three years (2017-2019), the
practice the Plan for Restructuring the economy has witnessed a faster growth
Economy and Renovating the Growth rate; and the Consumer Index Price (CPI)
Model, focusing on three focal points: public has been under a proper control as well as
investment, state-owned enterprises and the kept at a stable and low rate (under
system of commercial banks. This, in 4%/year).

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 Tran Dinh Thien

Figure 4: Vietnam’s Economic Growth and Inflation in Period of 2010-2018

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

It should be noted here that the two-year Vietnam was still able to maintain a high
period of 2018-2019 was also the US-China GDP growth rate and good control of macro
trade war time, during which the trend of stability. Its achievements even surpassed
growth rate decline and turmoil covered the those of the other ASEAN countries and are
whole world’s economy as well as those of predicted to continue with the pattern in 2020
the ASEAN. In such a challenging situation, (Figure 5).

Figure 5: GDP Growth of Some ASEAN’s Economies

Source: Cao Viet Sinh, Gabriel Demombynes, Victoria Kwakwa, et al., (2016), Vietnam
2035: Towards Prosperity, Creativity, Equity and Democracy, World Bank and the
Ministry of Planning and Investment.

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Another surprising achievement, which Together with efforts to accelerate the

should be stressed, is that in 2019, Vietnam international integration and sign new-
made a record of climbing 10 places up in the generation Free Trade Agreements (FTAs),
Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of the Vietnam is now actively improving its
World Economic Forum (WEF), while most investment environment and upgrading its
of other ASEAN economies went down in national competitiveness. The fact should
their rankings (Table 1). be acknowledged.

Table 1: Global Competitiveness Rankings of Asia-Pacific Countries/Territories in 2019

Ranking within Global Ranking

Countries/Regions Change
Asia-Pacific 2018 2019
Singapore 1 2 1 Up
Hong Kong 2 7 3 Up
Japan 3 5 6 Down
Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) 4 13 12 Up
Republic of Korea 5 15 13 Up
Australia 6 14 16 Down
New Zealand 7 18 19 Down
Malaysia 8 25 27 Down
China 9 28 28 Down
Thailand 10 38 40 Down
Indonesia 11 45 50 Down
Brunei Darussalam 12 62 56 Up
Philippines 13 56 64 Down
Vietnam 14 77 67 Up
India 15 58 68 Down

Source: World Economic Forum, 2019.

In order to have a more authentic context of the unstable global economy and
evaluation on the fast changing economy, sharp declining trend in growth rate under
we need to dissect the move of Vietnam’s the impacts of the US-China trade war.
economy in 2019. It is because Vietnam’s economy is
much smaller in size and weaker in
capability yet greater in the openness
2. Vietnam’s economy in 2019: compared to those of China’s and the US’s,
“Unconventionally” bright while these are its two biggest trade
partners. The conflicts between these two
The latest data on Vietnam’s economy biggest trade partners push Vietnam’s
shows that the positive trend continues to be economy into a dilemma, which is highly
strengthened (Table 2). This seems to be an likely to expose the country to strong
“unconventional" achievement record in the negative impacts and vulnerability.

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 Tran Dinh Thien

Table 2: The Nine-month Snapshot of Vietnam’s Economy in 2019

Indicators (*) Value, %

GDP 6,98
CPI 2,48
FDI
- Projects 26,4
- Registered Capital - 19,9
- Realised Capital 7,3
- Supplemented capital, capital contribution and share purchase 82,3
International Merchandise Trade
- Export 8,2
- Import 8,9
Enterprise Status
- Newly established 5,9
- Registered capital 34,0
- Average capital 26,6
- New jobs 13,4
Foreign tourists 10,8
Note: (*) - value over the same period last year

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

However, Vietnam seems to have been increased dramatically, reaching a record

dealing with those impacts from the US- of 82% in comparison to the same period
China trade war in quite an efficient in 2018. The M&A market in Vietnam has
manner. The data in Table 2 shows that in been ignited and shown signs of booming.
the first nine months of 2019, Vietnam This unconventionally trend is closely
reached the highest GDP growth rate in related to the anomalous increase of
the past nine years; CPI was, at the same “capital of Chinese-citizenship” invested
time, well under control and reached its into Vietnam since the start of the US-
lowest level in the past three years. There China trade war. The great number of
have been also new moves in the small-scaled projects in Vietnam has
attraction of foreign investments. The caused justifiable worries about the level
number of FDI projects has increased of technology and environmental impacts
significantly (26.4%), but the average on the economy. It also carries the risk of
scope of the capital decreased, equivalent increased Chinese goods intruding into
to only 40% of that of 2017. On the other Vietnam along with “investment flows”
hand, the inflows of Foreign Indirect so that they can “change their origins”
Investment (FII) to Vietnam in 2019 before being exported to the US.

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In the “gloomy time” of the world trade, positive. This has proved the drastical return
Vietnam’s import-export growth in the first of trust in Vietnamese enterprises while the
ten months of 2019 remained considerably world economy is still in fluctuation.
high, continuing its role as the motivation for
economic growth (Figure 6). However, In the first ten months of 2019, there
changes in the structure of trade growth were 107 countries and territories investing
indicate a warning nature: 16.1% increase in into Vietnam. Hong Kong (China) leads
the import from China causes a 47.9% the list with an investment capital of
increase of trade deficit for Vietnam from USD 6.45 billion. Following up is the
China in comparison to the same period in Republic of Korea with USD 5.52 billion,
2018. Meanwhile, the export from Vietnam making up 19% of the total investment
to the US sharply went up (26.6%) [8]. This into Vietnam. The third place in the list
places Vietnam in the danger of being belongs to Singapore, which is followed
included into a “list” of economies that can by China, Japan and others. Among the
be under sanctions by President Donald countries and territories, investments
Trump’s Administration for “origin frauds” from China and Hong Kong tend to
(helping to export goods of Chinese origin to increase in comparison to the same period
the US). in 2018 due to the impacts of the US-China
Recently, the development of enterprises trade war. Specifically, the investment from
in Vietnam has also been impressive. All China has almost doubled, while that from
three growth indexes (the number of Hong Kong (China) has increased by 3.84
enterprises, capital size and job creation) times in comparison to the same period
during the first ten months of 2019 are in 2018. [8]

Figure 6: No. of Newly Established Enterprises in Nine Months of Year during 2015-2019

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

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 Tran Dinh Thien

Explaining clearly essence of the The above reforms clearly show the
“upward” trend of Vietnam’s economy desire and measures to develop a risk-
recently will help to identify prospects of the resilient economy, thrive to a high
economy and evaluate its real competence development level and narrow the gap
accurately in the current unstable world. between Vietnam with countries that started
It is grounded to affirm that the earlier. Although achievements have been
improvement in Vietnam’s growth rate and still modest so far, those reforms clearly
the country’s stable trend, which is ever- indicate orientations of making fundamental
more attracting foreign investments, is not structural changes to firmly improve the
simply out of “benefits” from the US-China situation. The US-China trade war with its
trade war. This attractiveness originates severity and very intense negative impacts is
playing the testing role in Vietnam’s reform
from changes in the basic structure of the
efforts. That testing is, in fact, bringing about
economy itself, which had happened far
positive results. Vietnam is an increasingly
before the US-China trade war.
attracting destination for foreign investments.
Continuously in many years, Vietnam has That results from efforts in improving the
made efforts to implement strong reforms in internal investment environment and
two aspects, internal institutions and open- actively integrating into the world.
door policies to integrate with foreign
countries, thereby establishing a new According to the ranking of the best
foundation for growth and development. economies for investment by the US News
Some administrative reforms that & World Report, Vietnam has impressively
Vietnam has yielded success can be named stepped up from place 23 in 2018 to place 8
as followings: i) reform in the growth and in 2019.
development model with two main The publication asserted that reforms of
orientations: prioritising the private sector economic policies conducted since 1986
and targeting a high growth rate based on the had made Vietnam a stronger and more
firm macroeconomic stability; ii) active competitive country. It had also become
engagement in new-generation FTAs more integrated since its accession to the
(especially the CP-TPP and EVFTA), WTO in 2007, the Association of South
thereby creating strategic advantages in East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Asia-
comparison to other economies in the Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
region; iii) implementation of new strategies forum and major trade agreements. Invest-
in attracting FDI with priorities over in is the category that Vietnam earned the
attracting high technologies to create high best scores in being ranked in this ranking
added values and linking chain - global by the US News & World Report.
production network; iv) encouragement for For overall results, the country stands
th
startups and innovative activities; v) 39 in the 2019 list, stepping up from the
government reforms along with developing place 44th in 2018. Among the categories,
the “tectonic state” (a term of Vietnamese Vietnam scored the highest in “Open for
origin, implying a state which is business” thanks to its low production fee.
constructive and facilitating). The ranking was based on the evaluation

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by 7,000 company leaders worldwide with That trend is the most clearly reflected in
eight categories reflecting criteria, namely investment inflows to Vietnam from East
the start-up spirit, economic stability, Asian economies such as the Republic of
favourable tariff policies, innovation, skilled Korea, Japan, Singapore and Chinese
labour force, expertise in technology,
Taipei (the territory of Taiwan) long before
dynamism and corruption. The criteria were
the outbreak of the US-China trade war
compiled based on a report in 2011 by the
World Bank (WB), which emphasised four (Figure 7). The trend of increasing
factors that could make a nation an ideal investments into Vietnam from these “time-
destination for investment: the people, tested” investors has remained unchanged
environment, relations, and legal framework. during the trade war.

Figure 7: Major Sources of FDI in Vietnam

Note: Accumulated base, in millions of USD

Source: Foreign Investment Agency of Vietnam.

The Republic of Korea (RoK) is the investor in Vietnam. However,

biggest investor into Vietnam in all spheres: progressively, by February 2019, among the
the number of projects, the amount of 130 countries and territories still having
investment capital, the coverage of valid investment projects in Vietnam, the
investment (in sectors and provinces) and RoK has come out on top with the total
especially the number of big groups as registered capital of USD 63.7 billion,
investors. In 2019, China (including Hong making up 18.4% of Vietnam’s total
Kong) has become the year’s biggest investment capital (Table 3).

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 Tran Dinh Thien

Table 3: Foreign Direct Investment Projects Licensed by Main Counterparts

Countries/Year 2018 2019 Trend

Republic of Korea 3,657.6 2,095.8 Up
China 1,217.1 2,023.8 Down
Japan 6,592.1 1,582.3 Up
Singapore 1,423.6 1,465.0 Down
Hong Kong (China) 1,128.9 1,251.4 Down
Thailand 898.6 441.4 Up
Others 3,058.3 2,113.7 Up

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

After the FTA signing between the US, the RoK has become Vietnam’s
RoK and Vietnam in 2015, promoted by second largest trade partner, ranked only
the high investment growth, the trade after China. In 2018, their two-way
volume between the two countries has import-export turnover was USD 68.2
increased by nearly 50%. Overtaking the billion (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Vietnam Has Become The Hottest Investment Destination of the RoK’s FDI Flow

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

The two countries are targeting a only one more year to go. Nevertheless, the
bilateral trade turnover of USD 100 billion US-China trade war seems to play a strong
in 2020 - a really tough goal when there is motivating role in the realisation of this

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goal. It should be noted here that the export war; and most of them have chosen
turnover of the RoK to Vietnam has Vietnam as their next destination. There are
surpassed that to the US (Figure 9). good reasons to predict a boom in the
Enterprises of the RoK are being driven export from the RoK to Vietnam in the
away from China due to the US-China trade years to come.

Figure 9: Vietnam’s Export Performance: Republic of Korea versus US

Source: The General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

3. Prospects of Vietnam’s economy in the (IMF), or the Asian Development Bank

period to come: positive and bright, yet (ADB) have all made their predictions
full of challenges about Vietnam’s economy in 2020. The
predictions might be more or less different
from one another in their extents, but they
It is risky to make any predictions of long
are consistent in terms of the basic trend:
or even medium term in such unforeseeable
while the global and regional economies
fluctuations of the world’s economic and continue to be trapped with difficulties or
political affairs. The riskiness of such even to face a more declining and unstable
predictions is high from technological, state in some years to come, the prospects
geopolitical and economic perspectives. of Vietnam’s economy are still seen as
However, for Vietnam’s economy, the positive with two emphasised points:
short-term projection is based on highly- Firstly, Vietnam will be still able to
convincing foundations. maintain a high GDP growth rate and
Major international institutions such as macro stability in comparison to the
the WB, the International Monetary Fund majority of other economies in the world.

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 Tran Dinh Thien

Secondly, GDP growth will be slowing provided by the WB is that Vietnam’s

and inflation increasing compared with 2017- economy cannot move fast forward alone in
2018, albeit not by much. The main argument an unstable and declining world.

Table 4: Vietnam's Economic Prospects of 2020-2021

Selected economic indicators 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.1 6.6 6.5 6.5
CPI (annual average, %) 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8

Source: World Bank (2019), “Taking Stock: Recent Economic Developments of Vietnam”,
Special Focus: Vietnam's Tourism Developments - Stepping Back from the Tipping Point-
Vietnam's Tourism Trends, Challenges and Policy Priorities.

The ADB has also forecasted the similar Among the factors, which create huge and
trend in “Asian Development Outlook 2019 different advantages in attracting foreign
Update: Fostering Growth and Inclusion in investments and differences for Vietnam, the
Asia's Cities” released in September 2019 [7]. “golden population” (the 100-million-people
Accordingly, the developing Asia’s GDP market with a high potential of income
is forecasted to slow down from 5.9% in growth) and the “trade and investment hub”
2018 to 5.4% in 2019 and 5.5% in 2020. are truly stood-out ones. The fact that
Inflation rates across that region are projected Vietnam has participated in 16 FTAs,
to increase from 2.5% in 2018 to 2.7% this covering most of the biggest markets, enables
year and in 2020. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s investors to easily get access to the market
GDP is forecasted to slow from 7.1% in 2018 and build up their business network at the
to 6.8% in 2019 and 6.7% in 2020 – just a
global scale.
slight decrease and thus can ensure that it is
still one of the highest-growing economies in Vietnam has five sectors/areas with
the region. The macro control of Vietnam tremendous development potentialities in
remains good with the inflation rate projected the future: i) industries with traditional
to decrease from 4.2% in 2018 to 3.4% this comparative advantages such as textile,
year and in 2020 [4]. footwear, electronics, agricultural production
According to the above predictions, the and aqua-culture; ii) tourism, entertainment,
prospects of Vietnam’s economy in some education, healthcare, pharmacy and retail
years to come are optimistic. The distribution to serve consumers; iii)
enhancement in efforts to reform and open connection, supporting network, production
the economy for integration, which is most value chains and logistics; iv) infrastructure
clearly shown through the promotion of new and real estate, including those for housing,
strategies in attracting FDI, and the active offices, tourism, retail and industrial zones;
implementation of FTAs, has increased the v) platform economy, green economy, smart
practicability of the above-mentioned trend. cities, fintech, e-commerce and others.

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These are priority areas targeted for 4. Conclusion

foreign investments in the period to come.
However, not everything is advantages for The FDI, as well as goods import - export,
Vietnam. The country’s economy itself is
have been the two most important
suffering from several weaknesses and
motivations of Vietnam since the country’s
unreleased bottlenecks. They are: i)
accession to the WTO. However, the
insufficient infrastructure; ii) incomplete
“strong fluctuations” of the two factors has
reform in the public sector; iii) unqualified
made it hard to control the macro stability
human resource and strong trend of pay
and pushed the economy into a long-lasting
rises; iv) weak contingent of domestic
unstable state and growth decline.
enterprises and lack of an effective
connection mechanism with the FDI sector Efforts to restructure the economy as
well as institutional reforms focusing on the
In external relations, the large reliance
business environment improvement have
on China’s market and the danger of being
made use of for commercial fraud, which helped Vietnam to show signs of strong
can lead Vietnam to sanctions imposed by revitalisation regardless of negative impacts
the US in the context of global trade from the international context.
conflicts, especially between the US and However, the regional and global
China, and have not been controlled yet, scenarios are increasingly becoming unstable
constitute a warning-worthy fact. and unpredictable, which is projected to
Additionally, although Vietnam has still adversely affect the prospects of Vietnam’s
kept a good control of exchange rates so far, economy in the time to come. Therefore, to
the fact that it is “trapped” between the two accomplish the set goal of becoming an
leading trade partners with regard to import upper-high-income country before 2035,
and export has put the country’s domestic Vietnam needs to make more concerted
currency and monetary policies under risks. efforts to restructure its economy with two
The focal task of Vietnam at present is to main driving forces, namely developing an
overcome the obstacles in the years to equitable and transparent business
come, and there are grounds to believe that environment and reforming the public
the country will yield positive results. administrative apparatus to move towards
Vietnam’s great aspiration is to rise fast the target of the “tectonic state”.
to escape from its backwardness in the
period to come. It has set certain objectives
Notes
to thrive in some areas, especially in the
digital economy. It is also making efforts to
1
become an upper-high-income country in This paper was translated by Vu Xuan Nuoc, edited
the next 10-15 years. by Etienne Mahler.
2
In doing so, Vietnam has to reach an The article was written within the framework of a
average economic growth rate of 7.5%/year research of the National Foundation for Science and
in the next ten years. The implementation of Technology Development (NAFOSTED) entitled
the task needs to be actively started right in “Restructuring Vietnam’s economy in 2011-2020
2020 [4]. towards sustainable development”.

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 Tran Dinh Thien

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