BT KTVM 1.2 Semi Final
BT KTVM 1.2 Semi Final
ANALYZE THE
SITUATION OF
ECONOMIC GROWTH
AND ECONOMIC
STRUCTURE IN
VIETNAM SINCE 2010
HỒ THỊ MỸ DUYÊN
TABLE OF CONTENT
I. OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM'S ECONOMY FROM 2010 TO PRESENT.........3
II. ECONOMIC GROWTH........................................................................................3
1. DEFINITION OF "ECONOMIC GROWTH".....................................................................3
2. RESEARCH RESULTS.................................................................................................5
2.1 Real GDP growth rate.......................................................................................5
2.2 GNP growth rate................................................................................................8
2.3 GDP per capita growth rate..............................................................................9
3. PREDICTION OF VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE FUTURE.........................10
3.1 Positive factors:...............................................................................................10
3.2 Negative factors:..............................................................................................10
3.3 Expert predictions:..........................................................................................10
III. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE...............................................................................11
1. Industry..............................................................................................................11
2. Agriculture.........................................................................................................12
3. Service................................................................................................................12
4. Economic Restructuring....................................................................................13
4.1. Labor structure.............................................................................................14
4.2 Capital investment........................................................................................15
4.2.1 FDI..........................................................................................................15
4.2.2 Social investment capital........................................................................16
4.3 Contribution of economic sectors to GDP....................................................16
5. Technology Revolution 4.0...............................................................................17
6. Conclusion and recommendations.....................................................................18
IV. CONCLUSION AND PROPOSAL SOME RECOMMENDATIONS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE GROWTH OF VIETNAM’S ECONOMY..............19
V. REFERENCE.........................................................................................................20
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I. Overview of Vietnam's economy from
2010 to present
3
Real GDP: This is the most
common measure of economic
- MEASURED BY: growth. Real GDP adjusts for
• GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT inflation and reflects the true value of
(GDP): TOTAL MONETARY VALUE OF goods and services produced. It is
calculated using constant prices from
ALL FINISHED GOODS AND SERVICES
a base year.
PRODUCED WITHIN A COUNTRY'S
BORDERS IN A SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD Nominal GDP: This measures the
value of all finished goods and
→ 4 COMPONENTS: GDP=C+I+G+ services produced within a country’s
(X−M) borders using current prices, without
adjusting for inflation.
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2. Research results
2.1 Real GDP growth rate
Figure 1: Vietnam's real GDP growth rate in the period 2010 - 2020 (%).
According to data published by compared to 2019, corresponding to a
the World Bank, Vietnam's real GDP at
2015 comparative prices in 2010
reached 144,994 million USD, by 2015
it increased and reached 193,241
million USD, an increase of 48,247
million USD, corresponding to an
increase of 33.27% compared to 2010.
By 2020, Vietnam's real GDP at 2015
constant prices will reach 258,509
million USD, an increase of 65,268
million USD compared to 2015,
corresponding to an increase of 33.78%
compared to 2015. Real GDP of 2020
increased by 7,300 million USD
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When compared with countries in growth rate of 4.04%/year for this
the ASEAN region, Vietnam's period. In 2020 alone, the economic
economic growth in the period 2010- growth of most countries in the region
2020 reached the highest level decreased due to the impact of the
compared to countries in the region and Covid 19 epidemic situation; only
reached 5.96%/year on average during Vietnam and Brunei maintained
this period. Indonesia achieved an positive growth rates. However,
average economic growth rate of compared to other countries, Vietnam's
4.58%/year for this period, followed by total real GDP is still quite low,
Malaysia achieving an economic ranking 6th in the region and the results
growth rate of 4.04%/year for this are described specifically in Figure 2.
period, Singapore achieved an average
Figure 2: Real GDP at 2015 comparative prices of countries in the ASEAN region in
2020 (Unit: billion USD)
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2.2 GNP growth rate
8
2.3 GDP per capita growth rate
V
ietnam's GDP per capita grew During the same period, GDP
on average about 5.5%/year per capita of other Southeast Asian
during this period, higher than countries such as Indonesia only
the average capacity of Southeast Asia increased from 1,350 USD to 3,989
and many other developing countries. USD, Thailand increased from 5,808
In 2010, Vietnam's GDP per capita was USD to 1,013 USD, and Malaysia
1,684 USD. In 2023, this index is increased from 8,210 USD to 12,979
4,284.5 USD. USD.
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Figure 7: GDP per capital of Vietnam's forcast
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3.3 Expert predictions:
World Bank: The World Bank's growth for Vietnam, with GDP
June 2024 forecast predicts expected to expand by 6.2% in
Vietnam's GDP to grow by 6.7% in 2023 and 6.0% in 2024.
2023 and 6.5% in 2024, assuming a ADB: The Asian Development
gradual recovery from the Bank (ADB) projects Vietnam's
pandemic and easing of trade GDP growth to reach 6.0% in 2024
tensions. and 6.2% in 2025.
IMF: The International Monetary
Fund (IMF) also forecasts steady
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III. Economic structure
1. Industry
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These structural changes During the challenging years of
underscore the practicality and success the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021),
of Vietnam's agricultural development the resilience of Vietnam's agricultural
strategy, which aims to harness its sector was evident. Despite global
potential and adapt to climate change disruptions, the sector maintained a
challenges effectively. This growth rate of 2.9% in 2020,
transformation has not only boosted contributing significantly to the overall
modern agricultural practices but also economic growth by contributing
increased farmers' incomes and 13.97% to the total added value of the
facilitated the development of new economy.
rural areas across the country.
In summary, Vietnam's
Moreover, Vietnam's agricultural agricultural transformation has not only
sector has played a pivotal role in enhanced productivity and quality but
ensuring national food security, has also strengthened the sector's role
transitioning from a traditional as a pillar of the national economy,
agricultural model to one that supports ensuring food security and supporting
commodity production. This shift has economic stability during challenging
positioned Vietnam as a significant times.
player in agricultural production within
the region and globally.
3. Service
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increased significantly, nearing 75%, Moreover, Vietnam's capital
ensuring broader access to healthcare markets expanded significantly, with the
services for the population. stock market capitalization reaching
approximately 33% of GDP and the
bond market encompassing about 23%
by the end of 2015. The country gained
In the financial sector, Vietnam's recognition as a market economy from
banking and financial services sector 59 nations, while establishing free trade
underwent diversification and relations with 55 countries and
modernization. Efforts to address bad economies, including 15 G-20 member
debts and restructure weak commercial nations.
banks led to a substantial decrease in
bad debt levels from 17.43% in Overall, these developments
September 2012 to 2.9% by September underscore Vietnam's robust economic
2015. The finance, securities, and growth, structural reforms, and
insurance industries were also increased global integration during the
restructured, with enhanced supervision period, positioning it as a key player in
and transparency measures contributing the global economy while enhancing
to improved operational efficiency and living standards and economic resilience
system stability. domestically.
4. Economic Restructuring
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Figure 8: Vietnam: Distribution of gross domestic product (GDP)
across economic sectors from 2012 to 2022
Figure 9: Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment in the period from 2010 to 2024
I
n 2010, Vietnam's FDI was just rise in investment, with some
under 5 billion USD. From that fluctuations. Each year demonstrates a
point, there has been a consistent cyclical pattern of peaks and troughs,
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reflecting possible seasonal or sometimes exceeding 20 billion USD.
economic influences on investment This indicates a remarkable surge in
levels. By 2018, inflows had foreign investment in recent years. The
approached 15 billion USD, indicating mean FDI level throughout the period
a threefold increase from the levels is around 10 billion USD, but the trend
observed in 2010. line suggests that recent years have
seen investments well above this
The period from 2020 to 2024 average. (Ministry of Planning
marks the most substantial growth, and Investment, n.d.)
with FDI inflows approaching and
R
ealized investment capital of non-state sector reached 340,7 trillion
the entire society in the first VND, accounting for 55,5%, an
quarter of 2024 at current increase of 4,2%; The foreign direct
prices is estimated at 613,9 trillion investment sector reached 110,5 trillion
VND, up 5,2% over the same period VND, accounting for 18% and
last year, including: State sector capital increasing by 8,9%. This indicates a
estimated at 162,7 trillion VND, robust growth in investment capital,
accounting for 26,5% of total driven by substantial contributions
investment capital and increasing 4,9% from both domestic and foreign
over the same period last year; The investors. (Anh, 03/2024)
4.3 Contribution of economic sectors to GDP
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Figure 11: Structure of Vietnam's economic sector from 2010 to 2023 (%)
The structure of GDP across economic Specifically, the proportion of the
sectors is one of the most important Agriculture sector in GDP has been
indicators reflecting the movement decreasing, from 15.38% in 2010 to
trends and the level of success in the 11.96% in 2023. The proportion of the
industrialization process. Manufacturing sector has seen the most
significant increase, rising from
In recent years, this structure in
33.02% in 2010 to 37.12% in 2023.
our country has shifted according to the
rules of industry restructuring in the The proportion of the Service sector
process of industrialization and has also been on the rise, from 40.63%
modernization. in 2010 to 42.54% in 2023. (Huân,
03/2024)
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Second, science-technology It determined that increasing
promotes economic restructuring labor productivity to achieve economic
towards progress, among the factors efficiency can be completed through
affecting financial reorganization the transition to an innovative economy
Create many new professions, based on new technologies and the
many new fields. The structure within mobilization of all production
the industry has also changed. resources.
Changing production to increase The development of science and
productivity and efficiency will create technology also contributes to
the possibility of evolving consumption increasing social exchanges, making
structure due to increased income. The people’s spiritual lives more
share and position of GDP of industry prosperous and better by producing
and services gradually increase, and many new drugs and modern medical
agriculture gradually decreases. facilities.
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contributing to the economic 3. Increase the speed and quality of
development process as follows: Manufacturing restructuring to
1. The economic sector structure increase the value and GDP of the
needs to be shifted in a more Manufacturing sector.
specialized direction. Specifically: 4. Increase the scale of Vietnam's
increasing production of key export turnover through product
products, clean products, and high- diversification and improving
value products; promoting product quality.
production linkages between 5. Businesses need to be given
industry, services and agriculture to favorable conditions and support
develop harmoniously. to improve production capacity
2. The Government needs to and competitiveness. At the same
implement many macro and micro time, focus on promoting the
solutions to increase the scale of connection between businesses in
Vietnam's GDP in the coming production, processing, supply of
years. supporting products, and product
consumption. (Lê, 2024)
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V. Reference
1. Anh, T., 03/2024. Realized social investment capital in the first quarter of 2024
increased by 5,2% over the same period last year. Cổng thông tin điện tử Bộ Kế hoạch
và Đầu tư (www.mpi.gov.vn).
2. Bui, D. X., 01/2023. TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION 4.0 PROMOTES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC STRUCTURE. Research Magazine
Universidad del Quindío, 35(1), 157-165..
3. Huân, Đ. V., 03/2024. Động thái tích cực trong chuyển dịch cơ cấu. TẠP CHÍ
KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM .
4. Lê, H. T. M., 2024. The trend of economic structural transformation in
Vietnam during the 2010 - 2022 period. Science & Technology Development Journal:
Economics- Law & Management, 31 March, Tập Vol 8 No 1 (2024), pp. 5089-5097.
5. Ministry of Planning and Investment, V., không ngày tháng Vietnam Foreign
Direct Investment, không biết chủ biên: không biết tác giả
6. O'Neill, A., 01/2024. Vietnam: Distribution of gross domestic product (GDP)
across economic sectors from 2012 to 2022, không biết chủ biên: không biết tác giả
7. PV, N., 2024. Triển vọng nền kinh tế Việt Nam năm 2024. Báo Điện tử Đảng
Cộng sản Việt Nam, 03.
8. Tú, M., 04/2024. Tăng trưởng GDP của Việt Nam trong năm 2024 dự báo vẫn
ở mức 6%. TẠP CHÍ KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM.
9. Tran, H. V., 2022. Vietnam's economic growth in 2010 – 2020. Science &
Technology Development Journal: Economics- Law & Management: VOL 6 NO 3.
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