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IB MATHEMATICS AI HL - QUESTIONBANK

Probability
Basic Prob, Tree/ Venn/ Sample Space Diagrams, Conditional Prob, Transition Matrices & Markov Chains...

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Question 1

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
The probability that Amanda successfully passes her maths exam depends on the exam topic. The probability that the
topic is statistics is 0.35 and the probability she passes this topic is only 0.3. The probability that Amanda passes any
Video Solutions 2
other topic during the exam is 0.8.

(a) Complete the following tree diagram. [3] Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Find the probability that Amanda does not pass the exam. [3]

Question 2

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
A researcher is studying the relationship between exercise frequency and stress levels among a group of 100 adults. The
data collected is summarized in the following table.
Video Solutions 3

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

An adult is chosen at random from the 100 in the group.

(a) Find the probability that this adult’s stress level is not high, given that they exercise regularly. [2]

A chi-squared test at the 5% significance level is undertaken to determine if stress level and exercise frequency are
independent.

The null and alternate hypotheses are:

H0 : stress level and exercise frequency are independent.

H1 : stress level and exercise frequency are not independent.

(b) Find the p-value for this test. [2]

(c) State the conclusion for this test. Justify your answer. [2]

Question 3

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
A bag contains 6 white and 4 orange table tennis balls. Jack selects a ball at random from the bag and then, afterwards,
John selects a ball at random from the bag.
Video Solutions 2

(a) Complete the tree diagram. [3]

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Find the probability that John chooses a white ball. [3]

Question 4

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 5]
Mark Scheme
During an exam that has a total of eight questions, Paula correctly solved Questions 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8. During the same
exam, Quentin correctly solved Questions 1, 2, 3, 6 and 8.
Video Solutions 3

(a) Represent this information on the Venn diagram below. P represents the [2]
set of questions correctly solved by Paula. Likewise, Q represents the set of questions correctly solved by Quentin. Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Find n(P ∪ Q). [1]

(c) Find the probability that a question at random has been solved correctly [2]
by Paula or Quentin, but not both.

Question 5

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
Mark wants to meet his friend Jeremy after School to ask him some questions about their Chemistry homework. On a
typical school afternoon, Jeremy either goes to the park for some exercise or goes to the library to complete his
Video Solutions 2
homework.

Jeremy has previously told Mark that he goes to the park two out of every five afternoons each school week. Newton AI

If Jeremy goes to the park, the probability that Mark will meet Jeremy in the park is 0.2. If Jeremy goes to the library,
Formula Booklet
the probability that Mark will meet Jeremy in the library is 0.7.

These scenarios are represented on the tree diagram below.

(a) Complete the tree diagram. [3]

(b) Find the probability that Mark will meet Jeremy that afternoon. [3]

Question 6

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
The following transition diagram reflects the proportions of customers that Qatar Airways loses to its competitor airlines
each year, and vice versa.
Video Solutions 3

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(a) Construct a transition matrix T with elements in decimal form. [2]

(b) Interpret the meaning of the elements with values

(i) 0.15

(ii) 0.75 [2]

Assume that the initial state of the market share is

(c) Determine the market share of Qatar Airways after 5 years. [2]

Question 7

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
The probability that a soccer team scores in the first half is 0.6. If the team scores in the first half, the probability that it
will score in the second half is 0.3. If the team does not score in the first half, the probability it will not score in the second
Video Solutions 2
half is 0.2.

(a) Using the information given, complete the following tree diagram. [3] Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Calculate the probability that the team will score in the second half. [3]

Question 8

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
A lego storage box is left with 4 blue and 7 red bricks. Max takes a brick from the box at random and attaches it to his
new castle. He then chooses another brick from the same box at random.
Video Solutions 2

(a) Complete the following tree diagram. [3]

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Calculate the probability that both bricks chosen by Max are of the same color. [3]

Question 9

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
Two bags of marbles contain green and orange marbles. Bag A contains 7 green marbles and 5 orange marbles, while Bag
B contains 3 green marbles and 9 orange marbles.
Video Solutions 2

One marble is selected from Bag A and then Bag B.

Newton AI
(a) Determine the probability of selecting two marbles of the same colour. [3]

Both marbles from part (a) are put back into the bags they came from. This time, an unbiased coin is flipped to Formula Booklet
determine which bag to select a single marble from. If the coin flips heads, a marble is selected from Bag A. If the coin
flips tails, a marble is selected from Bag B.

(b) Determine the probability of flipping tails and then selecting a green marble. [3]

Question 10

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
A rat is placed in the maze shown in the diagram below. The maze has four rooms (A-D) with open doors between the
rooms. For example, there is one open door connecting rooms C and D, whereas there are two open doors connecting
Video Solutions 2
rooms B and D.

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

Every minute, a buzzer is sounded which prompts the rat to move to a connecting room. The probability of the room the
rat chooses to move to is determined by the number of open doors available to it. Each time the rat moves and chooses a
door to pass through, the probability of each available open door is equal.

(a) Determine the transition matrix describing the room the rat chooses to move to each time the buzzer sounds. [3]

The rat is initially placed in room C.

(b) Find the probability of the rat being in room D after 15 minutes. [3]

Question 11

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
There are 3 pairs of white coloured socks and 4 pairs of red coloured socks in a draw. Anne picks one sock from the draw
at random and puts it on. She then picks another sock from the draw at random and puts it on.
Video Solutions 2

(a) Complete the following tree diagram. [3]

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Find the probability that Anne goes for a walk in the socks of the same color. [3]

Question 12

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 17]

Mark Scheme
A large international school tests their teaching staff for a virus that is prevalent in the community. They interpret a
positive test result as meaning a staff member has the virus. A negative result means that they do not.
Video Solutions 5

The probability that a staff member has the virus is estimated to be 0.03.
Newton AI
If a staff member has the virus, the probability that they will test positive is 0.95.

If a staff member does not have the virus, the probability that they will test negative is 0.99. Formula Booklet

(a) Using the given information, copy and complete the following tree diagram. [2]

(b) (i) Determine the probability that a randomly selected staff member does not have the virus and tests negative.

(ii) If two staff members are selected at random, calculate the probability that both staff members do not have the
virus and both test negative. [4]

(c) (i) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected staff member will receive an incorrect test result.

(ii) The entire staff of 220 are tested. Calculate the expected number of staff members that will receive an incorrect
result. [5]

The mathematics faculty has 14 members. It is known that none of the mathematics faculty members have the virus.

(d) Calculate the probability that none of the mathematics faculty will test positive. [4]

(e) Determine the probability that more than 3 mathematics faculty members will test positive. [2]

Question 13

CALCULATOR Easy

[Maximum mark: 15]

Mark Scheme
At the company SpaceY it is known that 68% of the employees drive to work and 61% use the company canteen for
lunch.
Video Solutions 4

It is also known that 23% do not drive to work and do not use the company canteen for lunch.
Newton AI
This information can be shown on a Venn diagram such that the percentage in each region is represented by the letters
k, s, u and m.
Formula Booklet

(a) Find the value of

(i) m
(ii) s
(iii) u
(iv) k [4]
(b) Find the probability a randomly chosen employee

(i) does not drive to work.

(ii) does not drive to work given they eat in the canteen. [3]

Each month a single employee is randomly chosen from those employees who eat at the canteen.

The lucky employee is then awarded a free parking pass for that month!

Only employees who eat in the canteen have a chance to win the free parking pass.

(c) What is the probability a randomly chosen employee drives to work given they eat in the canteen? [2]

The CEO of SpaceY is using a binomial distribution to see how many winners, over a complete year (12 months), of the
parking pass actually drive to work.

It is assumed that driving to work and eating in the company canteen are independent and that the percentages found in
part (a) will be constant over the entire year.

Use the binomial distribution model to work out the probability

(d) (i) that exactly 8 winners of the free parking pass drive to work.
(ii) more than 8 winners of the free parking pass drive to work.
(iii) all of the winners drive to work given that at least 9 winners drive to work. [6]

Question 14

CALCULATOR Medium

[Maximum mark: 14]

Mark Scheme
100 students are asked what pets they like from a choice of cats, dogs and hamsters. The results are as follows.

60 like cats Video Solutions 4

64 like dogs
61 like hamsters
Newton AI
34 like cats and dogs
46 like dogs and hamsters
43 like cats and hamsters Formula Booklet
32 like cats, dogs and hamsters

(a) Represent this information on a Venn diagram. [4]

(b) Find the number of students who

(i) like dogs only;

(ii) like both dogs and cats but not hamsters;

(iii) do not like pets. [6]

A student is randomly chosen from this group of 100 students.

(c) Calculate the probability that this student likes only two kinds of pets. [2]

(d) Calculate the probability that this student likes only dogs, given that this student only likes one kind of pet. [2]

Question 15

CALCULATOR Medium

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
Samantha collects a basket of apples, however only 80% of them are ripe. The probability that a ripe apple has a worm
inside the apple is p. The probability that an unripe apple has a worm inside the apple is 0.1.
Video Solutions 2

(a) Complete the following tree diagram. [2]

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Find the value of p, assuming that exactly half of all apples have worms inside. [4]

Question 16

CALCULATOR Medium

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
A bag contains 8 blue marbles and 4 red marbles.
Video Solutions 2
Ray selects two marbles from the bag in succession, without replacement.

(a) Complete the missing probabilities on the tree diagram below. [2] Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(b) Determine the probability of:

(i) Ray selecting two red marbles.

(ii) Ray selecting two marbles of different colour. [4]

Question 17

CALCULATOR Medium

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
Consider the following Venn diagrams.
Video Solutions 2

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(a) Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region represented by

(i) Diagram 1;

(ii) Diagram 2;

(iii) Diagram 3. [4]

(b) Shade on the Venn diagrams the regions represented by the sets
(i) A′ ∪ B ;

(ii) C ∩ D′ . [2]

Question 18

CALCULATOR Medium

[Maximum mark: 15]

Mark Scheme
x2 − 8x + 16
Consider the function f (x) = for x ∈ {0, 1, 2, 3}.
30
Video Solutions 4
The following table can be constructed from f (x):

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

(a) Show that a = 16 and b = 1. [2]

It is given that f describes a discrete probability distribution for these values of x.

Maxine plays a game at a fair in which she throws a ball at a set of three skittles. It is known that the probability of
knocking over 0, 1, 2 or 3 skittles is equal to the probability distribution described by f (x).

(b) Calculate the probability that Maxine

(i) Knocks over at least 2 skittles;

(ii) Knocks over at least one skittle, given that she knocks over less than 3. [5]

Maxine plays the game 6 times in a row. In each game, the number of skittles knocked over is independent.

(c) Calculate the probability that Maxine knocks over at least 2 skittles in less than 3 of the games she plays. [4]

The game costs $5.25 to play. If 0 skittles are knocked down, the player receives nothing in return. If 1 skittle is knocked
down, the player will make a profit of $w. If 2 skittles are knocked down, the player will make a profit of $2w. If three
skittles are knocked down, the player will make a profit of $4w.

(d) Given that the game is fair, find the value of w. [4]

Question 19

CALCULATOR Medium

[Maximum mark: 6]
Mark Scheme
The Venn diagram below shows the sets A, B, C and U .
Video Solutions 6

Newton AI

Formula Booklet

Determine whether the given regions are completely shaded.

(a) A′ ; [1]