Solutions for Sheet(1

Sheet((1) – Part(
Part(2
(2)
1] Fifty-two percent of the students at a college are females .
Five percent of the students in this college are majoring in
computer science . Two percent of the students are women
majoring in computer science . If a student is selected at
random , find the conditional probability that
(a) this student is female , given that the student is majoring in
computer science ;
(b) this student is majoring in computer science , given that
the student is female .
Solution : Let
C = event that the student is majoring in computer science
F = event that the student is female
P(( F)) = 0.52 , P(C
( ) = 0.05, P(( F∩C ) = 0.02

(a) P ( F C ) = P ( F I C ) = 0 . 02 = 2 = 0 . 4
P (C ) 0 . 05 5

P (FI C )
(b) P (C F ) = = 0 . 02 = 1 = 0 . 038
P (F) 0 . 52 26
2] A total of 500 married working couples were polled about their annual
salaries, with the following information resulting

Husband
Wife Less than $25
$25,000
000 More than $ 25,000
25 000 Total
Less than $ 25,000 212 198 410
M
More than
h $ 2525,000
000 36 54 90
Total 248 252 500

Thus, for instance, in 36 of the couples the wife earned more and the
husband earned less than $ 25,000.
25 000 If one of the couples is randomly
chosen, what is
((a)) the pprobability
y that the husband earns less than $ 25,000
,
(b) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $ 25,000
given that the husband earns more than this amount ;
( ) the
(c) h conditional
di i l probability
b bili that
h the
h wife
if earns more than
h $ 25,000
25 000
given that the husband earns less than this amount ;
Solution :
Let
HL = event that the husband earns less than $ 25,000
25 000
HM = event that the husband earns more than $ 25,000
WL = event that the wife earns less than $ 25,000
WM = event that the wife earns more than $ 25,000

(a) P( HL) = n ( HL) = 212 +36 = 248 = 0.496

n (S) 500 500
(b) We can calculate this probability direct by the meaning of
the conditional p
probabilityy as follows
P( WM HM) = 54 = 0.214
252
Or , by the definition of conditional probability as
54
P ( WM I HM )
P( WM HM ) = = 500 = 54 = 0.214
P ( HM ) 252 252
500
(c ) We can calculate this probability direct as follows
P ( WM HL ) = 36 = 0 . 145
248
or
P ( WM I HL )
P ( WM HL ) =
P ( HL )
36
= 500
= 36 = 0 . 145
248
500
248
3] Suppose that P(A B) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.5 . Determine the following
(a) P(A∩B)

(b) P(Ac I B)

Solution :
(a) P(A∩B) = P(A/B) P (B) = (0.4)(0.5) = 0.2

c
(b) P ( A I B ) = P ( B ) − P ( A I B ) = 0 .5
5 − 0 .2 = 0 .3
4] Suppose that P(A B) = 0.2 and P(A Bc) =0.3 and P (B) = 0.8.
Wh iis P (A)?
What
Solution :
P(AIB)
P (A B) = P (B) , then
th
P ( A I B ) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) = ( 0 . 8 )( 0 . 2 ) = 0 . 16
Also, we have
P ( A I Bc )
P ( A Bc ) = , then
c
P(B )
P ( A I Bc ) = P ( A Bc ) P ( Bc ) = (0.3)(0.2) = 0.06
and , we have P ( A I B c ) = P ( A ) − P ( A I B ) = 0 .1
0.06 = P ( A ) − 0 . 16
Then , P(A) = 0.06 + 0.16 = 0.22
5] Suppose that P(A B) = 0.4 and P (B) = 0.8, and P (A) = 0.5, are the
events A and B independent?

Solution :
P(A∩B) = P(A/B) P (B) = (0.4)(0.8) = 0.32
Now,
P(A)P(B) = (0
(0.5)(0.8)
5)(0 8) = 0.4
0 4 ≠ P(A∩B)
Then , A and B are not independent events .
6] Suppose that P(A B) = 0.3 and P (B) = 0.8, and P (A) = 0.3,
are the events B and the complement
p of A independent?
p
Solution :
P(A∩B) = P(A/B) P (B) = (0.3)(0.8) = 0. 24
Now,
P(B I A c ) = P(B) − P(A I B) = 0.8 − 0.24 = 0.56

P(B)P(A c ) = (0.8)(0.7) = 0.56 = P(B I A c )

Then,, the events B and the complement

p of A are independent
p
7] Suppose that P(A B) = 0.7 and P (A) = 0.5, and P (B) = 0.2.

Determine P ( B A )
Solution :
P(A∩B) = P(A/B) P (B) = (0.7)(0.2) = 0.14
Now,

P ( A I B ) 0 . 14
P (B A ) = = = 0 . 28
P (A ) 0 .5
8] In a certain experiment the events E and F have the
characteristics
P(E) = 0.7 , P ( F) = 0.8 and P(E I F) = 0.6 . Find

(a) P(E U F)

(b) P ( E F )

(c) P ( F E )

(d) P(E c F c )

Solution :
(a) P ( E U F ) = P ( E ) + P ( F ) − P ( E I F )
= 0 .7 + 0 .8 − 0 .6 = 0 .9
 P ( E I F ) 0 .6 3
(b) P (E F) = = = = 0 . 75
P (F) 0 .8 4

P (E I F)
(c) P (F E ) = = 0 . 6 = 6 = 0 . 857
P (E ) 0 .7 7

c c P (E c I Fc ) P (E U F)c
(d) P (E F ) = =
P (Fc ) P (Fc )

1− P ( E U F )
= = 1− 0 . 9 = 0 . 1 = 0 . 5
P (Fc ) 0 .2 0 .2
9] The probability that a married man watches a certain
television show is 0.4 and the p probability
y that a married woman
watches the show is 0.5. The probability that a man watches the
show ggiven that his wife does is 0.7. Find
(a) The probability that a married couple watch the show.
((b)) The pprobabilityy that a wife watches the show given
g that her
husband does
((c)) The p
probabilityy that at least one person
p of a married couple
p
will watch the show.
S l ti : Let
Solution L t,
M = event that a married man watches a certain television show
W = event that a married woman watches a certain television show
So,
So
P(M) = 0.4 , P(W) = 0.5 , and P(M/W) = 0.7
(a) P(M∩W) = P(M/W) P(W) = (0.7)(0.5) = 0.35

P (W I M )
(b) P ( W M ) = = 0 . 35 = 7 = 0 . 875
P (M ) 0 .4 8

(c ) P ( W U M ) = P ( W ) + P ( M ) − P ( W I M )
= 0 . 5 + 0 . 4 − 0 . 35 = 0 . 55
10] The following table summarizes the analysis of 100 samples of
galvanized steel for coating weight and surface roughness:

Coating Weight
High Low Total
Surface High
g 8 10 18
roughness Low 58 24 82
Total 66 34 100

((a)) What
h is
i the
h probability
b bili thath theh coating
i weight
i h off a sample
l is
i high
hi h if
its surface roughness is high?
(b) What is the probability that surface roughness of a sample is high if
its coating weight is high?
((c)) What is the p
probabilityy that the coatingg weight
g of a sample
p is low if
its surface roughness is low?
Solution : Let ,
c.w.h
h = eventt that
th t the
th coating
ti weight
i ht off a sample
l is
i high
hi h
c.w.l = event that the coating
g weight
g of a sample
p is low
s.r.h = event that the surface roughness of a sample is high
s.r.l = event that the surface roughness of a sample is low

(a) P ( c . w .h s .r .h ) = P ( c . w .h I s .r .h ) = 8 = 4 = 0 . 44
P ( s .r .h ) 18 9

(b) P ( s .r .h c .w .h ) = P ( s .r .h I c .w .h ) = 8 = 4 = 0 . 12
P ( c . w .h ) 66 33

P ( c . w .l I s .r .l ) 24
(c ) P ( c . w .l s .r .l ) = = = 12 = 0 . 293
P ( s . r .l ) 82 42
11] A town has two fire engines operating independently. The
probabilityy that a specific
p p fire engine
g is available when needed
is 0.99.
((a)) What is the pprobabilityy that neither is available when
needed?
((b)) What is the p
probabilityy that a fire engine
g is available when
needed?

Solution: Let
A: is the event that the first fire engine is available
B: is the event that the second fire engine
g is available.
P(A) = P(B) = 0.99
Then
(a) P ( A c I B c ) = P ( A c ) P ( B c ) = ( 0 . 01 )( 0 . 01 ) = ( 0 . 01 ) 2

(b) P ( A U B ) = 1 − P ( A c I B c )
= 1 − ( 0 . 01 )( 0 . 01 ) = 1 − ( 0 . 01 ) 2 = 0 . 9999
12] Three missiles are fired at a target. If their probabilities of
hittingg the target
g are 0.4,, 0.5,, and 0.6,, respectively
p y and if the
missiles are fired independently, what is the probability that
((a)) All three missiles hit the target?
g
(b) At least one of the three missiles hit the target.
((c)) Exactlyy one hits the target.
g
(d) Exactly two of the three missiles hit the target.

Solution :Let
A1 = event that the first missile hit the target
A2 = event that the second missile hit the target
A3 = event that the third missile hit the target
P(A1) = 0.4
0 4 , P(A2) = 0.5
0 5 , and d P(A3) = 0.6 0 6 . The
Th three
h events
are independent and P ( A1c ) = 0 .6 , P ( A c2 ) = 0 .5 and P ( A 3c ) = 0 .4
(a) P(A1∩A2∩A3) = P(A1)P(A2)P(A3)
= (0.4)(0.5)(0.6)
(0 4)(0 5)(0 6) = 0.12
0 12
((b)) P ( A 1 U A 2 U A 3 ) = 1 − P ( A c I A c I A c )
1 2 3
= 1 − P ( A 1c ) P ( A c2 ) P ( A 3c )
= 1 − ( 0 . 6 )( 0 . 5 )( 0 . 4 ) = 0 . 88

(c ) P(A1 I A c2 I A3c ) + P(A1c I A 2 I A3c ) + P(A1c I A c2 I A3 ) =

P ( A1) P ( A c2 ) P ( A 3c ) + P ( A1c ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3c ) + P ( A1c ) P ( A c2 ) P ( A 3 ) =

(0.4)(0.5)(0.4) + (0.6)(0.5)(0.4) + (0.6)(0.5)(0.6) = 0.38

(d) P(A1 I A 2 I A c ) + P(A1 I A c I A3 ) + P(A c I A 2 I A3 ) =
3 2 1

P ( A1) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3c ) + P ( A1) P ( A c2 ) P ( A 3 ) + P ( A1c ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 ) =

((0.4)(0.5)(0.4)
)( )( ) + (0.4)(0.5)(0.6)
( )( )( ) + ((0.6)(0.5)(0.6)
)( )( ) = 0.38
13] A certain family owns two television sets, one color and
one '' black and white "set. Let A be the event that "the color
set is on" and B the event that "the black and white set is on".
If P ((A)) = 0.4 and P ((B)) = 0.3,, and P(A U B) = 0.5, find the
probability that
((a)) Both are on
(b) The color set is on and the other is off
((c)) Exactly
y one set is on
(d) Neither set is on .

Solution :

(a) P ( A I B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A U B )
= 0 .4 + 0 .3 − 0 .5 = 0 .2
((b)) P ( A I B c ) = P ( A ) − P ( A I B ) = 0 .4 − 0 .2 = 0 .2

(c ) P(exactly one set is on ) = P(A I Bc ) + P(Ac I B)

= (P(A) − P(A I B)) + (P(B) − P(A I B))
= (0.4 − 0.2) + (0.3 − 0.2) = 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.3

((d)) P(neitherset is on ) = P(Ac I Bc) =1− P(A U B)

=1− 0.5 = 0.3
14] Two dice are tossed. Find the probability that:
((a)) The number appearing
pp g on the first die is ggreater than that
on the second die.
((b)) The two numbers are equal.
q

Solution : S = { ((i,, j) , i,, j = 1,, 2,, 3,, 4,, 5,, 6 } , n(S)

( ) = 36
Let
((a)) A = event that the first die is g greater than that on the second
die
A = { (2,
( , 1),
), (3,
( , 1),
), (3,
( , 2),
), (4,
( , 1),
), (4,
( , 2), ), ((4,, 3),
), (5,
( , 1),
), (5,
( , 2),
),
(5, 3), (5, 4), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5)}
n(A)
( ) = 15 , so P(A) ( ) = 15/36 = 0.4167
(b) B = event that the two numbers are equal
B = { ((1,1),
) ((2, 2),
) ((3, 3),
) ((4, 4),
) ((5, 5),) ((6, 6)) }
n(B) = 6 , so P(B) = 6/36 = 1/6
15] A pair of fair dice is rolled. Let E denote the event that the
sum of the dice is equal
q to 7.
(a) Show that E is independent of the event that the first die
lands on 4
(b) Show that E is independent of the event that the second die
lands on 3.
Solution : S = { (i , j ) : i , j = 1,2,3,4,5,6 } , and n( S) = 36 .
E = { (1,
(1 6) , (6,1)
(6 1) , (2,5)
(2 5) , (5,2)
(5 2) , (3,4),
(3 4) (4
(4, 3) } , n( E) = 6 ,
P(E) = 6/36 = 1/6

(a) Let A = event that the first die lands on 4, then

A = { (4,1) , (4,2) , (4,3) , (4,4) , (4,5) , (4,6) } ,

n( A) =6 , P(A) = 6/36 = 1/6 ,

and
A ∩ E = { (4,3)} , n( A ∩ E ) = 1 , P(A∩E) = 1/36
now ,
P(A∩E) = 1/36 , and P(A) P(E) = (1/6 )(1/6 ) = 1/36

Then E and A are independent events

(b) Let
B = event that the second die lands on 3, then
B = { (1
(1,3)
3) , (2,3)
(2 3) , (3,3)
(3 3) , (4
(4,3)
3) , (5,3)
(5 3) , (6,3)
(6 3) } ,
n(( B)) =6 , P(B)
( ) = 6/36 = 1/6 ,

B ∩ E = { (4,3)} , n( B ∩ E ) = 1 , P(B∩E) = 1/36

now ,
P(B∩E) = 1/36 , and P(B) P(E) = (1/6 )(1/6 ) = 1/36

Then E and B are independent events

16] The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on
time is P ((D)) = 0.83;; the probability
p y that it arrives on time is
P (A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on
time is P ((D∩ A)) = 0.78. Find the p probabilityy that a plane
p

((a)) arrives on time g

given that it departed
p on time,, and

((b)) depart
p on time given
g that it has arrived on time.
Solution :
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time given that it
departed
p on time is
P ( D I A ) 0 . 78
P (A D ) = = = 0 . 94
P (D ) 0 . 83

(b) The
Th probability
b bilit that
th t a plane
l departed
d t d on time
ti given
i that
th t it
has arrived on time is

P (D I A )
P (D A ) = = 0 . 78 = 0 . 95
P (A ) 0 . 82
17] There are five urns, and they are numbered 1 to 5. Each
urn contains 10 balls.
balls Urn i has i defective balls and 10 – i
nondefective balls, i = 1, 2, …, 5.
For instance
instance, urn 3 has 3 defective balls and 7 nondefective
balls. Consider the following experiment: First an urn is
selected at random,
random and then a ball is selected at random from
the urn.
(a) What is the probability that a defective ball will be
selected?
(b) If we have already selected the ball and noted that it is
defective, what is the probability that it came from urn 5?
Solution: Let D be the event that a defective ball is selected
and Ei , the event that urn i is selected , i = 1,
1 2,
2 …,55 .

P(Ei) = 1, i =1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and P(D Ei ) = i , i = 1, 2,

2 3,
3 4,
4 5
5 10

5 5
15 = 3 = 0.3
(a) P ( D) = ∑ P ( D E i ) P ( E i ) =
50 ∑
1 i =
50 10
i =1 i =1
(b) Applying
A l i Baye's
B ' fformula,
l we find
fi d

1 .1
P (D E )P (E )
P (E 5 D ) = 5 5
= 2 5
= 1
5 3 3
∑ P (D E i )P (E i ) 10
i=1
18] In a certain assembly plant, three machines, E1 , E2 , E3 ,
make 30% , 45% , and 25% respectively , of the products .
It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the
products made by each machine
machine, respectively
respectively, are defective.
defective
Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly selected.
(a) What is the probability that it is defective?
(b) If a product were chosen randomly and found to be
defective what is the probability that it was made by machine
defective,
E3 ?
Solution: Let
D : The event that the product is defective ,
P ( E1 ) = 0.3 , P ( E 2 ) = 0.45 , P ( E 3 ) = 0.25 ,

P ( D E1 ) = 0 .02 , P ( D E 2 ) = 0 .03 , P(D E3 ) = 0.02

Th
Thus
(a) P(D) = P(D E1)P(E1) + P(D E 2 )P(E 2 ) + P(D E3 )P(E3 )

= ((0.02)(0.3)+(0.03)(0.45)+(0.02)(0.25)
)( ) ( )( ) ( )( )

= 0.006 + 0.0135 + 0.005 = 0.0245

 P(D E3 )P(E3 )
(b) P(E3 D) =
P(D E1)P(E1)+P(D E2 )P(E2 )+P(D E3 )P(E3 )

(0.02)(0.25)
= = 0.204
(0.02)(0.3)+(0.03)(0.45)+(0.02)(0.25)
19] Two different suppliers, A and B, provide a manufacturer
with the same part.
part All supplies of this part are kept in a large
bin. In the past, 5% of the parts supplied by A and 9% of the
parts supplied by B have been defective.
defective A supplies four times
as many parts as B. Suppose you reach into the bin and select
a part,
part and find it is nondefective
nondefective. What is the probability that
it was supplied by A?
Solution: Let
D : The event that the part is defective ,
N.D : The event that the part is non defective

P ( D A ) = 0 .05 , P ( N.D A ) = 0 .95 ,

P ( D B ) = 0 .09 , P ( N.D B ) = 0 .91

Now,
P(A) = 4 P(B) , and since P(A) + P(B) = 1 , then

4P(B)+ P(B) = 5 P(B) = 1 , so we have

P(B) = 1/5 and P(A) = 4 / 5

 P( N.D A)P(A)
P(A N.D) =
P( N.D A)P(A)+P( N.D B)P(B)

(0.95)(0.8)
= = 0.807
(0.95)(0.8)+(0.91)(0.2)
20] A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90%
reliable when the person is guilty and 99% reliable when the
person is innocent. If a suspect is selected from a group of
suspects of which only 5% are guilty and the serum indicates
that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent?

(Hint: let I denote that the suspect is innocent while IS

indicates that he is innocent according to the serum.
serum
Similarly, G denote that the suspect is guilty, while GS
indicates that he is guilty according to serum.
serum )
Solution :
Let
I = the event that the suspect is innocent
IS = the event that the suspect
p is innocent according
g to the
serum.
G = the event that the suspect is guilty,
GS = the event that the suspect is guilty according to serum.
Then , we have P(G) = 0.05 and P(I) = 0.95 and
P ( G S G ) = 0 .9 and then , we get P ( IS G ) = 0 .1

P ( IS I ) = 0 .99 and then , we get

g P ( G S I ) = 0 .01
 P(GS I)P(I)
P(I GS) =
P(GS I)P(I)+P(GS G)P(G)

(0.01)(0.95)
= = 0.174
(0.01)(0.95)+(0.9)(0.05)
21]] Monitor a phone call . Classify the call as a voice call (V) if someone
21
is speaking,
speaking or a data call (D) if the call is carrying a modem or fax
signal . Classify the call as long (L) if the call lasts for more than three
minutes ; otherwise classify the call as brief (B) . Based on data collected
by
y the telephone
p company
p y , we use the following
g pprobability
y model :
P(V) = 0.7 , P(L) = 0.6 , P(V∩L) = 0.35 . Find the following
( ) ( ∩ )
(a)P(D∩L)
(b) P (V U L )

(c)P(V∩B)
(d) P ( V U D )
(e) P(D U L)
(f) P(L∩B)
Solution :
V D Total
L 0.35 0.25 0.6
B 0.35 0.05 0.4
Total 0.7 0.3 1

(a)P(D∩L) = 0.25
0 25 ;(intersection of the second column with the first row )

(b) P ( D U L ) = P ( D ) + P ( L ) − P ( D I L ) = 0 .3 + 0 .6 − 0 .25 = 0 .65

( )P(V∩B) 0 35 ; (intersection
(c)P(V∩B)=0.35 (i t ti off the
th first
fi t column
l with
ith the
th secondd row )

(d) P(V U L) = P(V) + P(L) − P(V I L) = 0.7 + 0.6 − 0.35 = 0.95

(e) V and D are mutually exclusive events , then

P ( V U D ) = P ( V ) + P ( D ) = 0 .7 + 0 .3 = 1
(f) P(L∩B) = 0 ; since
i they
h are also
l mutually
ll exclusive
l i events
22] Roll two fair four-sided dice . Let X1 and X2 denote the number of
pp on die 1 and die 2,, respectively
dots that appear p y.
Let A be the event X1 ≥ 2 and B denote the event that X2 > X1 .
(a) What is the P(A) ?
(b) What
h iis P(B)
( )?
(c) What is P ( A B )

Solution :
The sample space S has 16 elements ,
S = { (i, j) : i = 1, 2, 3, 4 and j = 1, 2, 3, 4} , n(S) = 16
A = the event X1 ≥ 2 , then
A = { (2,
( , 1)) ,(2,
,( , 2),
), ((2,, 3),
), ((2,, 4)) , ((3,, 1)) ,(
,(3,, 2),
),
(3, 3), (3, 4), (4, 1) ,(4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4) } , n (A) = 12
B = the event that X2 > X1
B = { (1, 2) ,(1, 3), (1, 4), (2, 3) , (2, 4) ,(3, 4), } , n (B) = 6
(a) P(A) = n(A)/ n(S) = 12/ 16 = ¾
(b) P(B) = n(B)/ n(S) = 6/ 16 = 3/8

P (A I B ) (3 ) 1
(c) P (A B) = = 16 =
P (B ) (6 ) 2
16
23] Monitor three consecutive phone calls going through a telephone
23]
switching office . Classify each one as a voice call (v) if someone
is speaking, or a data call (d) if the call is carrying a modem or fax
signal . Your observation is a sequence of three letters (each one is
either
ith v or d ) . For
F example l , three
th voice i callsll corresponds
d to
t vvv .
The outcomes vvv and ddd have probability 0.2 whereas each of the
other outcomes vvd
vvd, vdv
vdv, vdd
vdd, dvv,
dvv dvd,
dvd and ddv has probability 0.1
01.
Count the number of voice calls NV in the three calls you have
observed. Calculate the following probabilities :

Solution :
S = { vvv, vvd, vdv, dvv, vdd, dvd, ddv, ddd}
P(vvv) = P(ddd) = 0.2
P(vvd)=P( vdv)=P( dvv)=P( vdd)=P(dvd)=P( ddv) = 0.1 01
We have,
NV Count the number of voice calls in the three calls.
NV = { 0, 1, 2, 3}
(a)P(NV = 2) = { P(vvd)+P( vdv)+P( dvv) } = 0.3

(b) P(NV ≥ 2) ={P(NV = 2) + P(NV = 3)} = 0.3 + P(vvv) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5

P({vvd} I N V = 2) P({vvd}) 0.1 1

( ) P({vvd} N V = 2) =
(c) = = =
P( N V = 2) P( N V = 2) 0.3 3

P({ddv} I N V = 2) 0
(d) {
P( ddv}
dd N V = 2) = = =0
P( N V = 2) P( N V = 2)
 P ({ N V = 2} I { N V ≥ 1}) P ( N V = 2 )
(e) P ( N V = 2 N V ≥ 1) = =
P ( N V ≥ 1) P ( N V ≥ 1)
P ( N V = 2)
=
P ( N V = 1) + P ( N V = 2 ) + P ( N V = 3)
0 .3 3
= =
0 .3 + 0 .3 + 0 .2 8

(f) P ( N V ≥ 1 N V = 2) = P ({ N V = 2} I { N V ≥ 1}) = P ( N V = 2) = 1
P ( N V = 2) P ( N V = 2)
24] A system consists of 5 independent components in series , each
having a reliability (probability of success) of 0.97 .
(a) What is the reliability of the system
(b) What happens to the system reliability if its complexity is increased
so that it contains 10 similar components ?

Solution :

(a)The reliability of the 5-component system is (0.97)5 = 0.859

(b) Increasing system complexity to 10 components will decrease the

s stem reliabilit
system (0 97)10 = 0.737
reliability to (0.97) 0 737
25] Consider the system diagramed in the following figure, which
consists of eight components having the reliabilities shown in that figure.
Find the reliability ( probability of success) of this system

Solution :
(i) The parallel C, D, E can be replaced by an equivalent component C`
with reliability = 1- (1-0.7)3 = 0.973 without affecting the overall
reliability of the system
(ii) Similarly, assembly F, G can be replaced by a single component F`
h i reliability
having li bilit = 1- (1 0 75)2 = 0.9375
1 (1-0.75) 0 9375
(iii) The resulting series system A, B, C` , F`, H , equivalent to the
original system , has reliability equal to
(0.95)(0.99)(0.973)(0.9375)(0.90) = 0.772

A B C` F` H
0.95 0.99 0.973 0.9375 0.90