Argentina Economic

Outlook

October 2024
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 2

Main messages. Global

Monetary easing cycles are now in place in the US and Eurozone as inflation has fallen
Recent due to demand moderation and supply gains. Labor markets are slowing,
developments manufacturing remains weak, but services and consumption remain relatively strong.
Financial volatility has risen, but markets continue to see a soft-landing ahead.

Global growth is likely to converge to moderate levels. In the US growth was revised
up as incoming data surprised to the upside, but is still expected to gradually weaken
Growth
ahead. In the Eurozone, forecasts remain unchanged; lower inflation and interest
outlook
rates will support a cyclical recovery. In China, increasing policy stimulus will help to
sustain growth, but a structural deceleration is still likely.

Monetary conditions are set to gradually become less restrictive given more controlled
Inflation and inflation and easing labor pressures. The Fed’s rate cuts are likely to be more
rates outlook aggressive than anticipated, but interest rates are forecast to remain relatively high.
The monetary easing cycle is also expected to continue in the Eurozone and China.

Risks to growth and inflation are now more balanced. The recent labor market
slowdown and China's structural problems raise concerns about a hard landing.
Risks
However, strong demand, fiscal policy, and geopolitical tensions, among other factors,
keep upward inflation risks alive.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 3

Key points. Argentina

The government maintains high approval levels as a result of the fall in inflation and
Political outlook has managed, despite being in the minority, to pass through Congress an abbreviated
version of the Bases Law, but which contains important tools for the medium and long
term management of the economy. The public approval marginally fell since July.

The government maintains its strong conviction in fiscal balance as the cornerstone of
Fiscal its economic program. In the first eight months of the year, it accumulated a financial
result fiscal surplus of 0.3% of GDP and a primary surplus of 1.5%. It presented the 2025
Budget, where the main message conveyed was to maintain fiscal equilibrium.

Fiscal discipline made it possible to move forward with the monetary program, canceling
the different sources of money issuance. The only source of remaining liquidity
Monetary policy
expansion will come from the potential dismantling of the stock of short-term Treasury
liabilities (LEFIs) by banks, based on private sector credit demand.

Prices have slowed sharply since the beginning of the year, but in the last four months
Inflation inflation has remained stable at around 4% per month, suggesting the need for a more
comprehensive approach to the problem in order to consolidate the disinflation
process. We expect inflation to reach 130% this year and 40% in 2025.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 4

Key points. Argentina

The BCRA is maintaining the crawling peg of the official FX rate at a rate of 2% m/m,
while it has been practically unable to accumulate reserves since June. The Ministry of
Exchange rate Finance is exploring alternative sources of financing (tax amnesty, repo with banks,
multilaterals) to strengthen reserves, which the government considers a necessary
condition for easing exchange restrictions.

After three consecutive quarters of contraction, economic activity show signs of

Economic recovery in 3Q24. Since July, several sectors have shown monthly growth in high-
activity frequency indicators. We maintain our forecast of a 4% decline in GDP in 2024 and a
6% recovery in 2025.

The recovery of the agricultural sector after last year's acute drought is accompanied
Sector
by a solid surplus in the energy balance, driven by lower LNG imports and rising oil
External
exports. A merchandise trade surplus of USD 17.6 bn is projected for this year.

The key risks for 2025 can be summarized as follows: (i) occurrence of extreme
weather events affecting agricultural production, (ii) loss of public approval of the
Risks
government, (iii) delay in lifting exchange controls could lead to loss of market
confidence and trigger exchange rate pressure.
01
Global Economic Outlook
October 2024
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 6

GDP forecasts: growth revised up on resilient demand in the US; cyclical

recovery in Eurozone; policy stimulus will help to sustain growth in China
GDP GROWTH (*)
(%, CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PARENTHESES)
6
5,2
4,6
(0,0pp) 4,2
(0,0pp)

2,5 2,5
(+0,3pp) 2,1
(+0,2pp)
2 1,4
(0,0pp)
0,7
(0,0pp)
0,5

0
2023 2024(f) 2025(f) 2023 2024(f) 2025(f) 2023 2024(f) 2025(f)
US Eurozone China
(*) Global GDP growth: 3.1%in 2023, 3.1% (unchanged in comparison to the previous forecast) in 2024 and 3.3% (unchanged in comparison to the previous forecast) in 2025.
(f): forecast.
Source: BBVA Research.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 7

Inflation forecasts: downward revision in the US on clearer labor market easing

and favorable incoming data; no significant changes in Eurozone and China
HEADLINE CPI INFLATION
(Y/Y %, END OF PERIOD, CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PARENTHESES)
6

4
3,4 2,7
2,5 2,9
2,3 (0,0pp)
(-0,7pp) 2,0
(-0,1pp) 1,8
(+0,1pp) (0,0pp)
2 1,0
(0,0pp)

-0,8
0

-2
2023 2024(f) 2025(f) 2023 2024(f) 2025(f) 2023 2024(f) 2025(f)
US Eurozone China

(f): forecast.
Source: BBVA Research.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 8

Rate forecasts: further monetary easing is expected; the Fed is likely to cut
rates at a 25bps pace till mid-2025; slightly higher long-term ECB rates
POLICY INTEREST RATES (*)
(%, END OF PERIOD, CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PARENTHESES)

6
5,50

4,50
(-0,50pp)
4,00
4 3,25 3,45 3,25 3,15
3,00 (0,0pp) (0,0pp) (0,0pp)
(-0,75pp)
2,50
(+0,25pp)

0
2023 2024(f) 2025(f) 2023 2024(f) 2025(f) 2023 2024(f) 2025(f)
US Eurozone China
(f): forecast.
(*) In the case of the Eurozone, interest rates of the deposit facility.
Source: BBVA Research.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 9

Risks: still sizeable, but more balanced than before

Risk 1: strong demand
(less likely than in 2Q24)
Risk 2: negative supply shocks + fiscal impulse, monetary easing,
(less likely than in 2Q24) service dynamism
ongoing conflicts, US elections,
Current
protectionism, weather shocks
equilibrium

Base scenario:
soft-landing GDP GROWTH
- +

Risk 4: positive supply shocks

Risk 3: hard-landing (more likely than in 2Q24)

INFLATION
(more likely than in 2Q24) productivity gains, labor supply, lower
lagged impact of tight monetary commodity prices, Chinese supply
policy, China slowdown
-
02
Argentina Economic Outlook
October 2024
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 11

The government continues to rigorously defend the fiscal surplus and, in the
face of falling revenues, focuses its efforts on expenditures
FISCAL BALANCE CUMULATIVE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE JAN-AUG 2024
(% GDP) (% GDP)

Source: Ministry of Economy, INDEC and BBVA Research. Source: Ministry of Economy, INDEC and BBVA Research.

Public expenditure has contracted 30% y/y in real terms so far this year, while Treasury revenues have fallen 6.1%, mainly
due to the recession, only driven by the recomposition of export duties and the PAIS tax, whose collection reaches 0.8%
of GDP (more than double the financial result).
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 12

The Treasury has accumulated a 1,5% of GDP primary surplus by August,

which leads us to improve the our fiscal projections
FISCAL BALANCE DECOMPOSITION: 2024 VS 2023 FISCAL BALANCE: 2015-2025
(% GDP) (% GDP)

Source: Ministry of Economy and BBVA Research Source: Ministry of Economy and BBVA Research

The decline in expenditure could find a limit –particularly in December, which is seasonally deficit-prone– so we foresee a primary
result of 0.9% of GDP (and a financial result of -0.9% after interests are taken into account). The president presented the
2025 budget with a strong signal of fiscal commitment, although the assumptions looks optimistic.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 13

However, the sustainability of the public accounts remains the main challenge,
relying on a more robust foundations other than cutting expenses
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR INTEREST PAYMENTS AND PUBLIC DEBT LEVELS
(% GDP) (% GDP)
3.5%
3.1%
3.0% 2.9%

2.5%
Avg. 1961-2023
2.0% 1,8%

1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
Avg. 1991-2001 1.0% Budget:
0.6%
0.5%
0.4% BBVAf: 0.3%
0.0%
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025f

Source: Ministry of Economy and BBVA Research . Source: IMF and BBVA Research

Capital expenditures are well below the historical average and probably also below the minimum to cover infrastructure maintenance
needs. In addition, interest payments are underestimated due to the exchange rate control (which allows the Treasury to finance
itself at negative real interest rates) and accounting issues such as not recording interest on LECAP/LEFIs.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 14

Once monetary issuance to assist the Treasury was eliminated, the

Government also ended issuance to cover the quasi-fiscal deficit
MONETARY ISSUANCE DUE TO BCRA INTEREST STOCK OF INTEREST-BEARING LIABILITIES IN
PAYMENTS AND MONETARY POLICY RATE (LEFT AXIS: PESOS (TRILLION OF PESOS)
% OF THE MONETARY BASE OF THE PREVIOUS MONTH, RIGHT
AXIS: % ANNUAL RATE)

Source: BCRA and BBVA Research. Source: BCRA and BBVA Research.

To continue with the objective of "zero monetary issuance", the Government replaced the BCRA's repos with Treasury Bills
(LEFIs) as a new monetary policy instrument. In addition, the sharp fall in rates had already significantly reduced the
interest generated by these interest-bearing liabilities (quasi-fiscal deficit).
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 15

At the moment, the only source of money issuance comes from the gradual
reduction of the stock of LEFIs and LECAP held by banks, to provide credit
BROAD MONETARY BASE, LEFIS AND TREASURY The BCRA announced a $47.7 trillion
DEPOSITS AT THE BCRA (TRILLION OF PESOS) monetary base ceiling (equal to the sum
between monetary base and repos as of 4/30).

As the government has already eliminated the

treasury financing, the issuance for the quasi-
fiscal deficit of the BCRA -and has also
committed to reabsorb the pesos issued for
the purchase of reserves-, the only remaining
source of monetary issuance comes from the
dismantling of LEFIs held by banks, to provide
credit and/or if the Treasury withdraws the
deposits it has in the BCRA for approx. $15
trillion (in case liquidity is needed to repay
LECAP or Other debt securities in pesos).

Source: BCRA and BBVA Research.

 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 16

As a result of this scheme, the economy's liquidity excess is starting to

decrease and deposit interest rates are rising in 3Q24
MONETARY AGGREGATES INTEREST RATES
(TRILLION OF CONSTANT PESOS FROM AUG-24) (ANNUAL NOMINAL RATE)

Source: BCRA and BBVA Research Source: BCRA and BBVA Research

We expect real interest rates to turn positive in the coming months as money demand continues to recover, given the
government's tightening of monetary policy, a gradual reduction in inflation, the maintenance of the MPR at current levels
and the gradual removal of exchange controls.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 17

Inflation decelerated faster than expected during the year, but disinflation
would now be slower and more challenging
INFLATION BY COMPONENT BBVA EXPECTED INFLATION VS. MARKET
(% Y/Y CHG.) CONSENSUS-BCRA (% Y/Y CHG.)

Source: INDEC and BBVA Research. Source: INDEC, BCRA and BBVA Research.

Core inflation has shown signs of downward resistance and averaged 3.8% m/m in the last 4 months. The next slowdown
towards 2% m/m could be slower—because relative prices adjustments still need to be made—and require a monetary
scheme with positive real interest rates.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 18

Despite the government's tough anti-inflation measures, Javier Milei's

government has maintained strong popular support
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL MAIN CONCERNS OF THE PEOPLE
(SURVEY IN %) (SURVEY IN %)

Source: Poliarquía and BBVA Research. Source: Synopsis and BBVA Research.

Presidential approval remains at high levels due to his success in reducing inflation, and this is key for the government to keep
applying its policies. However, an inevitable cost of the adjustment was the rise in unemployment, a problem that has now
become the main social concern.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 19

Available indicators suggest that economic activity reached a plateau in 2Q24,

and early data for 3Q24 would point to the start of a recovery
SECTORAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS (BASE JUNE 2023 = 100)
ACTIVITY ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION
AUTOMOTIVE OUTPUT
(INDEC) (OJF) PRODUCTION (INDEC) PRODUCTION (FIEL) (INDEC)
104 104 105
102 102 100
100 100
98 95
98
96 90
96
94
94 85
Feb-24

Jun-24
Jun-23

Dec-23

Aug-24
Aug-23
Oct-23

Apr-24

Aug-23

Aug-24

Feb-24
Dec-23

Dec-23
Jun-23

Jun-24

Jun-23
Aug-23

Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-23

Feb-24
Apr-24

Oct-23

Apr-24
SPENDING WITH BBVA RETAIL SALES DOMESTIC VAT PURCHASES OF
AUTOMOTIVE SALES REAL WAGES
CARDS (CAME) COLLECTION CONSTRUCTION INPUTS
110
100
90
80
70

Jun-23

Jun-24
Oct-23
Dec-23
Aug-23

Feb-24
Apr-24

Aug-24
Source: INDEC, ADEFA, SIOMAA, Ministry of Economy, Construya Group, OJF & Associates, FIEL, CAME and BBVA Research.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 20

The strong reactivation of credit is contributing to the economic recovery and

is expected to keep growing from the current low levels
LOANS IN PESOS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR PESO LOANS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR
(IN BILLION OF CONSTANT ARS, S.A.) (CHG. % M/M; CONSTANT ARS; SERIES S.A.)

Source: BCRA and BBVA Research Source: BCRA and BBVA Research

Consumer loans are growing at an average rate of 20% m/m from April to August, while pledged loans are up 16% m/m on
average. Given the current very low levels of credit (in historical and international perspectives) it is expected that loans
could double in real terms within 2 years.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 21

In addition, deposits from the tax amnesty are higher than expected, increasing
gross reserves and providing room for further expansion of USD lending
DEPOSITS IN DOLLARS CREDIT IN DOLLARS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR
(ACCUMULATED CHANGE SINCE BEGINNING OF TAX AMNESTY (MILLION DOLLARS)
PROGRAM IN MILLION DOLLARS)
12.000 18.000
10.408 16.000
10.000
14.000
8.000 12.000
6.000 10.000
7.456
4.000 8.000
6.000
2.000
4.000
0 3.556
2.000
120
1
8

106
113

127
134
141
148
155
78

99
15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71

85
92

Dec-02

Dec-04

Dec-06

Dec-08

Dec-10

Dec-12

Dec-14

Dec-16

Dec-18

Dec-20

Dec-22
Days elapsed
2016 - Macri 2024 - Milei
Source: BCRA and BBVA Research. Source: BCRA and BBVA Research.

Dollar deposits could increase by almost $10 billion as a result of the amnesty, with a direct impact on gross international
reserves and the availability of dollar-denominated credit. In addition, the payment of fines will contribute to tax collection
and provide some stability to parallel exchange rates.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 22

In addition, real wages began to recover from very low levels, gradually
boosting private consumption
REAL FORMAL PRIVATE WAGE REAL WAGE BY SECTOR
(BASE 2009 = 100) (BASE DEC. 2017 = 100)
130 110
100
120
90
110 80
70
100
60
90 50
40
80
30

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23
Jun-21

Jun-22
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-23

Jun-24
70

60
Formal private sector Informal sector
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24

Formal public sector

Source: INDEC and Ministry of Human Capital and BBVA Research Source: INDEC and BBVA Research
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 23

We maintain our forecast of a GDP contraction of -4% in 2024 and growth of

6% in 2025, assuming further easing of the exchange rate controls from 4Q24
GDP FORECAST GDP FORECAST BY COMPONENT
(CHG. % Y/Y; CONSTANT ARS) (CHG. % Y/Y; CONSTANT ARS)

6.0%
5.3%

-1.6%

-4.0%

2022 2023 2024f 2025f

Source: INDEC and BBVA Research Source: INDEC and BBVA Research
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 24

The pace of easing of capital controls remains as the main challenge for the
Government in the short term
BCRA’S NET USD PURCHASES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
(MILLION OF DOLLARS) (IN BILLION OF DOLLARS)

Source: CIARA, CEC and BBVA Research Source: BCRA and BBVA Research

The BCRA has not accumulated international reserves since June and has sold foreign currency in the parallel markets for
about USD 500 million. To reverse the situation an exchange rate controls removal is required. This will reduce the
excess demand for dollars and stimulate the foreign currency inflows for investment.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 25

The government has maintained the crawling peg at a 2% m/m rate throughout
the year, which is eroding the economy's exchange rate competitiveness
OFFICIAL AND PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
(PESOS PER DOLLAR) (PESOS PER DOLLAR, CONSTANT PRICES OF 30-SEP-24)

Source: BCRA, Alphacast and BBVA Research. Source: BCRA, Alphacast and BBVA Research.

We expect a further easing of foreign exchange controls during 4Q24, and that the lowering of the PAIS tax during Dec-24 will
be partially offset by an acceleration of the official exchange rate. Our forecast for December is 1200 ARS per USD.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 26

Reducing sovereign risk to levels closer to 1,000 bp is crucial to return to

international capital markets in 2025
PUBLIC DEBT MATURITY PROFILE IN 2025 PUBLIC DEBT IN PESOS: PAYMENTS AND ISSUANCE
Total 20,712 (TRILLION OF PESOS)
FOREIGN CURRENCY (MILLION OF USD) Swap 2,500
BOPREAL 2,340
IFIs 4,560
IMF 2,700
Paris Club 471
Bondholders 8,142

Source: Ministry of Economy and BBVA Research. Source: Ministry of Economy and BBVA Research.

With almost USD 20 billion of foreign currency debt and the equivalent of USD 60 billion of peso debt coming due in 2025, it will be
essential to reduce country risk in order to refinance these maturities with some degree of comfort. A key element of this will
be the liberalization of exchange rate controls which, in turn, could also unlock additional support from the IMF.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 27

Despite the fall in commodity prices, Argentina’s external accounts will

maintain its positive contribution...
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES TRADE BALANCE
(DOLLARS PER TON) (MILLION OF DOLLARS, 12-MONTH MOVING SUM)

Source: HAVER and BBVA Research Source: INDEC and BBVA Research

The results achieved in the external sector come from the recovery of exported quantities (after the fall due to the drought in
2023) but mainly from a strong adjustment in imports.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 28

... mainly driven by the improvement in two relevant sectors of the economy:
agriculture and energy
MAIN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ENERGY BALANCE
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES (IN BILLION OF DOLLARS) (IN MILLION OF DOLLARS)

Source: BCBA, BCR and BBVA Research Source: INDEC and BBVA Research

Infrastructure investment in the oil and gas sector allows for greater gas self-sufficiency and increased oil exports, reversing
years of energy deficits. A surplus of USD 3,157 million has been so far accumulated in 2024.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 29

The trade surplus will be present in 2024 and 2025, although the growing
deterioration of the tourism balance began to erode foreign currency inflows
FOREIGN TRADE NET TOURISM MONTHLY BALANCE
(IN MILLION OF DOLLARS) (MILLION DOLLARS)
90.000 79.600 80.900
80.000
66.800
70.000 62.000
27.411
60.000
50.000 23.961
40.000
30.000
52.190
20.000 38.039
10.000
0
Export Import Export Import
2024 2025

Jan-Aug 2024 Aug-Dec 2024

Source: INDEC and BBVA Research Source: BCRA and BBVA Research

The real appreciation of the exchange rate increases the incentives to import goods and services, in the latter case especially
tourism. The trade surplus would fall from USD 17.6 billion this year to USD 14.1 billion next year as imports rise.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 30

Table of macroeconomic forecasts

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e

GDP (% YoY) -9.9 10.4 5.3 -1.6 -4.0 6.0 4.5
Inflation (% YoY eop) 36 51 95 211 130 40 25
Exchange rate (vs USD eop) 84 103 177 808 1,200 1,600 2.000
Monetary Policy Rate (% eop) 37.1 36.7 75.0 100.0 40.0 34.0 21.0
Private Consumption (% YoY) -12.2 9.5 9.4 1.0 -7.9 2.2 1.9
Public Consumption (% YoY) -2.0 7.1 3.0 1.5 -5.0 1.5 4.1
Investment (% YoY) -13.1 34.0 11.2 -2.0 -25.3 15.0 21.4
Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) -6.4 -3.0 -2.4 -2.7 0.9 1.7 1.6
Financial Fiscal Balance (% GDP) -8.4 -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 -0.9 0.0 0.0
Current Account (BoP, % GDP) 0.7 1.4 -0.6 -3.2 0.8 -0.3 -0.9
Public Debt (% GDP) 103.8 80.6 85.0 156.6 99.6 84.7 77.9

e: estimate.
Source: BBVA Research.
 BBVA Research / Argentina Economic Outlook – October 2024 31

Disclaimer

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Argentina Economic
Outlook

October 2024