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Tut 2 - PRP

The document contains a tutorial sheet on probability and random processes, focusing on total probability and Bayes' theorem. It includes various problems related to defective products from factories, disease screening tests, urn problems, dice games, coin tossing, letter origins, switch operations, and car production. Each problem is accompanied by its respective answer, illustrating the application of probability concepts.

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6 views1 page

Tut 2 - PRP

The document contains a tutorial sheet on probability and random processes, focusing on total probability and Bayes' theorem. It includes various problems related to defective products from factories, disease screening tests, urn problems, dice games, coin tossing, letter origins, switch operations, and car production. Each problem is accompanied by its respective answer, illustrating the application of probability concepts.

Uploaded by

boiselmon255
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and Random Processes (15B11MA301)

Tutorial Sheet: 2 [C201.1]


(Total probability, Bayes theorem)
1. The LED bulbs producing factories A, B and C supply LED bulbs to the market in the ratio
2:3:5. It is found that 1% of the items produced in factory A, 2% of the items produced in
factory B and 3% of the items produced in factory C are defective. If a bulb is selected at
random from the market what is the probability that it is a defective one? Also, if a
randomly selected bulb is found to be defective then find the probability that it was
produced by factory (i) A, (ii) B, (iii) C? [Ans (i) 2/23 (ii) 6/23, (iii 15/23]

2. The frequency of an infected disease in a population is 0.2%. In a routine screening test of


it, it is found that the test is highly accurate with a 3% false positive rate (showing positive
when it is actually negative) and a 1% false negative (showing negative when it is actually
positive) rate. If a person takes the test and it comes out to be positive. What is the
probability that the person has the disease? [Ans: 0.062]

3. Three urns I, II and III contain 8 red, 4 white; 6 red, 6 white; and 5 red, 7 white balls,
respectively. If a ball is drawn at random and found to be red, what is the probability that
it is a drawn from (i) urn I, (ii) urn III? [Ans: (i) 8/19, (ii) 5/19]

4. A and B throw alternatively with a pair of balanced dice. A wins if he throws sum of six
points before B throws a sum of seven points, while B wins if he throws a sum of seven
points before A throws a sum of six points. If A begins the game, show that his probability
of wining is 30/61.

5. There are 4 true coins and 1 false coin with head on both sides. A coin is chosen at random
and tossed 5 times. If head occurs all the 5 times, what is the probability that the false coin
has chosen and used? [Ans: 8/9]

6. A letter is known to have come either from TATANAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the
envelope just two consecutive letters TA are visible. What is the probability that the letter
came from CALCUTTA? [Ans: 4/11]

7. Three switches connected in parallel operate independently. Each switch remains closed
with probability p. Find the probability (a) of receiving an input signal at the output. (b)
that switch S1 is open given that an input signal is received at the output.
[Ans: (i) 𝑝3 − 3𝑝2 + 3𝑝, (ii) {(1 − 𝑝)(2𝑝 − 𝑝2 )}/{𝑝3 − 3𝑝2 + 3𝑝}]

8. Companies A, B and C produces cars. The production capacity of company A is twice


that of B while company B and C produces same number of cars in a given period. It is
known that 2% of A, 3% of B and 4% of C are defective. All the cars produced are put
into one showroom and then one car is chosen at random. (a) Find the probability that the
car is defective. (b) Suppose a car chosen is defective, what is the probability that this is
produced by company A? [Ans: (i) 11/400, (ii) 4/11]

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