SM_ASM2_Nguyen Quoc Phu
SM_ASM2_Nguyen Quoc Phu
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In short, quality management focuses on controlling change to ensure that products and services are
consistently of high quality and meet customer expectations.
1.2 The four main measures of variability (range, interquartile range, variance, and standard
deviation). State the definition of each measure and give examples.
Range
Range of variation (also known as full range) is an indicator calculated as the difference between the
largest amount of variation and the smallest amount of variation in a series of variables. The larger the
variation range, the greater the level of variation of the indicator. On the contrary, the variation range is
small, and the level of variation of the indicator is low, which means the uniformity of the indicator is
high
Example
Example
I have a dataset with 11 values
In an odd-numbered data set, the median is the number in the middle of the list. The median itself is
excluded from both halves: one half contains all values below the median, and the other half contains all
values above the median.
Q1 is the median of the first half and Q3 is the median of the second half. Since each of these
halves is odd in size, there is only one value in the middle of each half.
Variance
According to information from VietnamBiz (2019) Symbolized as σ2 in statistics. In financial investing, the
return variance of assets in a portfolio is used as a means to best allocate assets. The variance equation,
in financial investment, is a formula to compare the efficiency of components in an investment portfolio
with each other and with the average efficiency value.
Example
Standard divation
Standard Deviation is a measurement in statistics and finance applied to the annual rate of return of
an investment, to shed light on historical fluctuations in the investment. from there. The larger the
standard deviation of a stock, or the larger the variance between the stock price and the average
value, indicates a wider range of price fluctuations (VietnamBiz, 2019).
The formula for calculating standard deviation
Measures of probability:
Probability distributions and application to business operations and processes.
2.1 State the definition of a probability distribution.
According to Hayes, A. (2024), a probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all the
possible values and probabilities that a random variable can take within a certain range. This range will
be limited between the minimum and maximum possible values.
There are many classifications of probability distributions. These include normal, chi-square, binomial,
and Poisson distributions.
2.2 List 3 main types of distribution in practice/business management: normal distribution, Poisson
distribution, and Bi-nominal distribution; and then will discuss normal distribution.
2.2.1 State the definition of a probability distribution
According to Hayes, A. (2024), A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all the
possible values and probabilities that a random variable can take within a certain range. This range will
be limited between the minimum and maximum possible values. There are many classifications of
probability distributions. These include normal, chi-square, binomial, and Poisson distributions.
2.2.2 Normal distribution
The normal distribution, the most common distribution function for independent variables, is generated
by chance. Its familiar bell-shaped curve appears everywhere in statistical reports, from survey analysis
and quality control to resource allocation.
Normal distribution-Britannica
The normal distribution, the most common distribution function for independent variables, is randomly
generated. Its familiar bell-shaped curve appears everywhere in statistical reports, from survey analysis
and quality control to resource allocation (Britannica, 2024).
Inference:
3.1 One sample T-test: Estimation and Hypotheses testing.
Estimation Definition + Process
According to Stattrek (n.d), estimation is the process of inferring the value of a population parameter
based on information obtained from a sample. In simpler terms, it is about making educated guesses
about the characteristics of a larger group (population) using data from a smaller group (sample).
An estimate of a population parameter can be expressed in two ways:
Point estimate: A point estimate of a population parameter is a single value of a statistic. For example,
the sample mean x is a point estimate of the population mean μ. Similarly, the sample proportion p is a
point estimate of the population proportion P.
Interval estimate: An interval estimate is defined by two numbers between which the population
parameter is said to lie. For example, a < x < b is an interval estimate of the population mean μ. It
indicates that the population mean is greater than a but less than b.
Graphical representation:
Y=-565,745+4,631x10x-5+9,867x1
y is the dependent variable
x is the first independent variable
x1 is the second independent variable
-565,745 is the intercept
4,631x10-5 is the coefficient for the first independent variable
9,867 is the coefficient for the second independent variable
R square: 0,360694958
Equation explanation:
R Square: 0,360694958
R Square represents the proportion of the variance of the dependent variable (GRDP per capita) that can
be predicted from the independent variables (provincial GRDP and provincial CPI). In this case, 36.07% of
the variation in GRDP per capita can be explained by provincial GRDP and provincial CPI. This shows a
moderate level of explanation.
Significance F: 2.17268E-05
Significance F indicates whether the overall regression model is statistically significant. A very small value
(less than 0.05) indicates that the model fits the data well, meaning that the independent variables
(provincial GRDP and provincial CPI) significantly predict the dependent variable (per capita GRDP). Here,
the value of 2.17268E-05 is much smaller than 0.05, indicating that the model is statistically significant.
Intercept: -565,7455813
When both provincial GRDP and provincial CPI are zero, i.e. no economic activity is taking place in that
province and prices are unchanged, the model predicts that the province's per capita GRDP will be -
565.7455813. A negative value for per capita GRDP is economically meaningless. This suggests that my
model may not be appropriate when applied to such extreme cases (i.e. when both provincial GRDP and
provincial CPI are zero).
GRDP province (Coefficient: 4,631x10-5)
For every unit increase in provincial GRDP, GRDP per capita increases by 4.631x10-5, keeping provincial
CPI constant. This relationship is statistically significant (p-value = 0.0493), meaning that changes in
provincial GRDP have a significant impact on GRDP per capita.
CPI province (Coefficient 1: 9,867):
For each unit increase in provincial CPI, GRDP per capita increases by 9.867, keeping provincial GRDP
constant. This relationship is statistically significant (p-value = 1.92396E-05), indicating that changes in
provincial CPI have a significant impact on GRDP per capita.
Conclusion: In summary, the regression analysis shows that both provincial GRDP and provincial CPI
significantly affect the per capita GRDP of the provinces. The model explains 36.07% of the variance of
per capita GRDP and the significance F shows that the model is statistically significant. The coefficients
show that the increase in both provincial GRDP and provincial CPI leads to the increase in per capita
GRDP, in which provincial CPI has a larger impact per unit increase than provincial GRDP.
Make valid judgments and recommendations for improving business planning through several
applications of the statistical methods above.
Business planning can be improved through regression analysis. This technique helps businesses identify
strengths and weaknesses, thereby suggesting specific strategies. To make reasonable assessments and
recommendations to improve the business plan, I will use the dataset of Vinfast's stock prices. By
applying some statistical methods, I can analyze this data and make reasonable recommendations.
VinFast Stock Data
Equation explanation:
R Square:
In this result, R Square = 0.1679, which means that about 16.79% of the change in the opening price of a
stock can be explained by the change in the trading volume of the stock. This shows that there are many
factors other than the trading volume of the stock that affect the opening price of a stock, which this
model does not explain.
Significance F:
This value tests whether the overall regression model is statistically significant. If this value is less than
the significance level (usually 0.05), then the overall regression model is significant.
Here, Significance F = 0.00289, which is less than 0.05, indicating that the overall regression model is
statistically significant. This means that the volume of shares traded has a statistically significant
relationship with the opening price of the stock.
Coefficients (Regression coefficient):
Intercept: This coefficient represents the average opening price of a stock when the trading volume is 0.
Here, the intercept coefficient is 4.59604735.
Trading volume: This coefficient shows the average change in the opening price of a stock when the
trading volume changes by one unit. Here, the coefficient is -0.09192e-07, meaning that when the
trading volume increases by one unit, the opening price of the stock will decrease by an average of
0.09192e-07 units, assuming other factors remain unchanged.
Multiple regression:
R Square = 0.96269996
R^2 indicates the percentage of the variation in the opening price of a stock (Y) that is explained by two
independent variables: the adjusted closing price of the stock (X1) and the volume of shares traded (X2).
Interpretation: With R^2 = 0.9627, about 96.27% of the variation in the opening price of a stock can be
explained by the adjusted closing price and the volume of shares traded. This is a very high value,
indicating that the regression model fits the data very well.
Significance F = 5.26045E-35
This value tests whether the overall regression model is statistically significant. If this value is less than
the significance level (usually 0.05), then the overall regression model is significant.
Here, Significance F = 5.26045E-35, which is much smaller than 0.05, which indicates that the overall
regression model is highly statistically significant. In other words, at least one of the independent
variables (adjusted closing price and trading volume) has a significant relationship with the opening price
of the stock.
Coefficients
Regression coefficients and related indicators:
Intercept: 0.40299381
Significance: This coefficient represents the average opening price of a stock when both the adjusted
closing price and the volume of shares traded are zero. The intercept coefficient is less meaningful in
practice because it is unlikely that both independent variables will be zero.
Significance: At 95% confidence, the regression coefficient of the volume of shares traded ranges from -
1.0108E-07 to -4.1163E-08. This range does not contain the value of zero, indicating that the regression
coefficient is highly statistically significant.
Strength
From the results of the univariate and multivariate regressions discussed, it is possible to infer some
strengths of VinFast based on the application of a similar analytical approach to evaluate the company's
performance, including the use of variables such as stock trading volume, adjusted closing price, and
other factors that affect stock price. The multivariate regression shows that a more complex model,
including multiple variables, can explain a large proportion of the variation in the opening price of the
stock. With R Square = 0.9627, VinFast can use this model to more accurately predict its stock price
based on multiple factors such as trading volume, adjusted closing price, and other factors. This allows
the company to forecast and manage its finances more effectively. Even when using only one variable
such as trading volume, the univariate regression model can still provide a certain level of explanation
for the opening price of the stock, showing that VinFast can identify and focus on the key factors that
have a large impact on its stock price. This helps the company optimize its business and investment
strategies. In addition, the Significance F values of both the univariate and multivariate regressions are
statistically significant, demonstrating that factors such as trading volume and adjusted closing price do
indeed affect stock performance. VinFast can be confident that these factors are significant and can rely
on them to adjust its financial and business strategies. Furthermore, the flexibility in data analysis,
through the combination of univariate and multivariate regression, allows VinFast to better understand
the factors affecting stock performance, thereby making data-driven decisions to optimize revenue,
manage risks and improve overall financial performance.
Ultimately, this capability helps VinFast maintain and improve its competitive position in the market
while optimizing its financial and business strategies to achieve sustainable development.
Weaknesses
From the results of the univariate and multivariate regressions discussed, several weaknesses of VinFast
can be inferred based on the application of a similar analytical approach to evaluate the company's
performance. First, the univariate regression shows that only about 16.79% of the volatility of the
opening price of the stock can be explained by the trading volume of the stock. This indicates that there
are many other factors beyond the control of VinFast that affect the company's stock price, including
macro factors such as the economic situation, international market fluctuations, or factors specific to the
automobile industry. Therefore, the company may have difficulty in fully controlling its stock price.
Second, although the multivariate regression can explain a large proportion of the volatility of the
opening price of the stock (R Square = 0.9627), relying on a model with many variables may increase the
risk if one or more of these variables become unstable or difficult to predict. If variables such as trading
volume and adjusted closing price change significantly due to external factors, the reliability of the
predictive model may be reduced. Third, the multivariate regression model may be at risk of overfitting,
i.e. the model fits the current data too well but does not perform well on new data sets. This may lead to
inaccurate data-driven decisions when market conditions change or when the company expands into
new markets with different characteristics. Fourth, although the univariate regression model provides a
certain level of explanation, it still explains only a small part of the volatility of the opening price of the
stock. This shows that relying on only one variable such as trading volume to predict stock prices is not
enough and may lead to inaccurate results if other factors are not considered. Finally, to maintain the
effectiveness of the regression models, VinFast needs to continuously update and adjust the model
based on new data. This requires continuous investment in technology and human resources to analyze
and update the models, and if not done well, the models can become outdated and inaccurate.
Although the results of univariate and multivariate regression provide a lot of useful information for
predicting VinFast's stock price, the company also needs to be aware of these weaknesses so that it can
adjust its business strategy and manage risks more effectively. Understanding these limitations helps
VinFast improve its data analysis models, thereby making more accurate and effective business decisions
in the future.
Recommendations
From the strengths and weaknesses analyzed, reasonable recommendations and assessments can be
made to improve VinFast's planning and strategy. VinFast should invest more heavily in data analysis and
forecasting technology. Using modern analysis tools and artificial intelligence (AI) to continuously update
and improve regression models will help the company predict stock price fluctuations and other
influencing factors more accurately, thereby managing finances more effectively. Instead of relying solely
on variables such as trading volume and adjusted closing price, VinFast should consider other factors
such as the macroeconomic situation, consumer trends, government policies and industry competition.
This will help the company have a more comprehensive view of the factors affecting stock prices,
thereby making more accurate business decisions. In addition, to avoid the risk of overfitting, VinFast
should apply model validation techniques such as cross-validation and splitting the data into training and
testing sets. The company should also regularly re-evaluate its predictive models using new data sets,
helping to ensure that the predictive models are not only relevant to current data but also applicable to
changing market conditions. Fourth, VinFast should establish a process for continuously updating and
adjusting its predictive models, including collecting new data, re-evaluating the current model, and
adjusting as necessary. This process will keep VinFast's predictive models up to date and accurate,
minimizing risks from changing external factors and ensuring high reliability. VinFast should focus on key
factors that have been identified as having a large impact on stock prices, such as trading volume and
adjusted closing price. This includes regular monitoring and analysis of these factors, as well as adjusting
business strategies based on changes detected. Focusing on key factors will help VinFast optimize its
business and investment strategies and make decisions based on reliable data.
Finally, VinFast needs to be more transparent in sharing information with shareholders about the factors
affecting its share price and how the company uses data analytics to predict and manage risks.
Transparency and good communication will help strengthen shareholder confidence, enhance the
company's reputation in the market, and facilitate future fundraising. While the results of the univariate
and multivariate regressions provide a lot of useful information for predicting VinFast's share price, the
company also needs to be aware of these weaknesses so that it can adjust its business strategy and
manage risks more effectively. Understanding these limitations helps VinFast improve data analysis
models, thereby making more accurate and effective business decisions in the future.
II. Communicate findings using appropriate charts/tables.
Different variables:
State the definition of nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio levels with examples
Nominal
Nominal data is data that is divided into non-overlapping groups or categories, and these groups have no
natural order. This means that the groups cannot be arranged in any order and do not provide
information about quantities. In statistics, “nominal” means “name only.” This indicates that nominal
data includes only the names of the groups to which each observation belongs. Nominal and categorical
data have the same meaning and can be used interchangeably (Jim Frost, n.d).
Example
Ordinal
Ordinal data is a type of data whose values can be ranked or arranged in a natural order, but the
distances between these values are not necessarily equal. This means that you know the order of the
values, but cannot determine the exact distance or difference between them (Bhandari, P. 2023).
Example: This is a question in my survey about Samsung's CSR
These levels can be ranked from highest to lowest interest:
1/Very interested
2/Care
3/Don't care
4/Absolutely no care
This data allows us to see the order of interest of survey respondents. However, it does not provide
information about the degree of variation between the interest levels. For example, there is no way to
know how much "Interested" differs from "Very interested", only that "Interested" is less than "Very
interested".
Interval
Interval data is measured on a numerical scale with equal distances between adjacent values. These
distances are called “intervals”. Interval scales do not have a true zero. This means that a zero point on
an interval scale is not the complete absence of the variable but is simply an arbitrary point (Bhandari, P.
2020). More from Hillier, W. (2021) Interval data is a type of quantitative data, that is, data that is
represented numerically. It groups variables into categories and always uses some kind of ordered scale.
Furthermore, interval values are always ordered and separated using an equal-interval measure.
Example: Let's say I have a list of daily temperatures in Celsius: 20°C, 25°C, 30°C. This is interval data
because:
Thermometer chart during the day
The difference between 20°C and 25°C is 5°C, and the difference between 25°C and 30°C is also 5°C. The
difference between the values is always the same.
Ratio
A ratio scale is a quantitative scale in which there is a true zero and equal intervals between neighboring
points. Unlike on an interval scale, zero on a ratio scale means the complete absence of the variable you
are measuring (Hiller, W. 2023)
Example: The time of each day according to the clock is 12 hours.
Choosing the most effective way of communicating the results of your analysis and variables by
charts/tables.
This is a dataset analyzed by including 50 observations, 6 variables including 5 quantitative variables, and
1 qualitative variable. Related to GRDP per capita of 50 provinces, provincial GRDP, CPI, urbanization
rate, and population.
Pivot Table of Dataset
This Pivot Table provides an overview of the socio-economic situation of some provinces in Vietnam,
focusing on the following important indicators: name of the province (How Labels), average GRDP per
capita (in million VND/person/year), total GRDP of the province (in billion VND), Consumer Price Index
(Sum of CPT), and urbanization rate of the province (Sum of urbanization rate). The "Sum of Average
GRDP per capita" index indicates the average living standard of people in each province, with a higher
index meaning a higher living standard of people in that province. The "Sum of GRDP" index reflects the
scale of the province's economy, the province with a higher GRDP has a more developed economy. "Sum
of CPI" shows the rate of change in prices of a typical basket of goods and services purchased by
consumers over a period of time, while "Sum of urbanization rate" shows the proportion of the
province's urban population, the higher the proportion, the greater the level of urbanization of the
province. Through these indicators, the Pivot table provides a comprehensive picture of the living
standards, economic scale, population and urbanization level of provinces and cities, helping to clearly
identify the economic and social differentiation between regions.
This frequency table provides an overview of income differentiation among delta regions in Vietnam in
2022, based on GRDP per capita. There are clear differences in living standards between regions in
Vietnam. Some regions are concentrated in the high-income group (over VND 100 million/person/year),
while other regions are in the lower-income group. However, most regions have GRDP per capita in the
range of VND 40-120 million/person/year, showing a not-so-large differentiation but still enough to
notice the difference. Only a few regions have GRDP per capita above VND 180 million/person/year,
showing that very high living standards are concentrated in certain localities.
Simple tables
The table shows the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of 51 provinces and cities in Vietnam in
2022. It reflects the size and strength of the economy in each locality. This table is of great significance in
understanding the economic differentiation between provinces and cities. Some provinces have very
high GRDP, while others have relatively low GRDP, showing the difference in economic scale between
localities. Provinces with high GRDP often have strong economic development, attract a lot of
investment and have great development potential. On the contrary, provinces with low GRDP need
support policies to develop the economy. Although the table only provides total GRDP, it also partly
reflects the economic structure of each province. Provinces with high GRDP often have diversification in
economic sectors.
Pie charts
Using a scatter plot to present data on vehicle sales by automaker in the US market in June and the first
half of 2023 will help highlight the relationship between variables and provide insight into the business
performance of each automaker.
Scatter Plot Car sales of manufacturers in the US market in June and the first half of 2023.
Using a scatter plot to present the vehicle sales data of manufacturers in the US market in June and the
first half of 2023 is a suitable method. First of all, the scatter plot allows to display the relationship
between sales and growth rates of automakers. Each point on the chart represents a automaker, with
the X-axis representing sales and the Y-axis representing YoY growth rates. This makes it easy to see the
relationship between sales and growth rates of each manufacturer, providing insight into business
performance.
The scatter plot also helps to detect data clusters, identify groups of automakers with similar sales and
growth rates, thereby analyzing competition between manufacturers. At the same time, this method
helps to identify outliers, such as automakers with unusual business results, allowing for deeper analysis
of the causes leading to these results.
Furthermore, scatter charts can visualize multiple variables using different symbols and colors, such as
the size of the points representing market share and the colors representing different product groups.
The simplicity and effectiveness of scatter charts help readers quickly grasp important information
without having to analyze a lot of complex data.
Thus, using scatter charts to present vehicle sales data of manufacturers in the US market in June and
the first half of 2023 is an intuitive and effective method, helping to highlight the relationship between
variables and provide an overview of the business performance of each car manufacturer.
In summary, in the field of business and economics, choosing the right method of presenting and
reporting data is very important to convey information clearly and effectively. Methods such as data
tables, bar charts, line charts, pie charts, scatter charts, box charts and heat maps all have their own
advantages, suitable for different types of data and research purposes. Using these methods not only
helps readers easily grasp important information but also supports strategic decision making and
business analysis. Presenting data in a scientific and intuitive way will provide an overview and insight,
thereby optimizing management efficiency and business development.
Conclusion
To sum up, this research has shown how different statistical techniques can be used to improve the
company's information system and decision-making procedures. The corporation's business planning and
operational management can benefit from the insightful information obtained from the analysis of the
dataset provided.
The company can gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of its quality control and operations by
looking at measurements of variability. The investigation of probability distributions—especially the
normal distribution—has brought to light how crucial it is to take statistical principles into account when
deciding on company operations and procedures. The company now has a way to make sense of the
data and pinpoint important correlations between variables thanks to the use of inferential statistics like
regression analysis and t-tests.
This information can be used to improve capacity planning, inventory control, and other crucial business
operations. Furthermore, the significance of data visualization in helping with decision-making has been
emphasized by the skillful communication of the analysis findings through the use of suitable charts and
tables. With this improved understanding of the various measurement levels, the company can now
select the best techniques for delivering complex information to stakeholders. After reading this report, I
think the company should keep spending money on improving its information system and incorporating
statistical analysis into its decision-making procedures. With this strategy, the company will be able to
make data-driven, better-informed decisions that will increase business planning, operational
effectiveness, and, eventually, competitiveness in the market
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