In collaboration

with Accenture

Global Economic Futures:

Productivity in 2030
WHITE PAPER
JANUARY 2025
Images: Getty Images, Unsplash

Contents
Foreword 3

Executive summary 4

1 Introduction: Understanding productivity  6

1.1 
The productivity slowdown  6

1.2 
Key drivers of future productivity  8

2 Scenarios 11

2.1 
Framework  11

2.2 
Four futures for productivity in 2030  13

3 Industry exposure and implications 17

3.1 
Mapping industry exposure 17

3.2 
Implications across selected industries 19

4 Strategies for the future 23

Appendices 25

A1 Methodology 25

Contributors 27

Endnotes 28

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Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 2

January 2025 Global Economic Futures:
Productivity in 2030

Foreword
Aengus Collins
Kathleen O’Reilly
Head, Economic Growth
Senior Managing Director,
and Transformation, World
Accenture
Economic Forum

The global economic backdrop is one of weak around boosting economic growth and
growth, complex geoeconomics and deepening living standards. The paper sets out four
policy uncertainty. The question is no longer scenarios exploring the interaction of two core
whether the economic landscape is going to evolve, drivers of productivity: technology and human
but how decision-makers can respond to these capital. It also presents a data-driven assessment
shifts. Can they harness this wave of change to of how businesses in different sectors may
build more innovative, inclusive, sustainable and be affected.
resilient economies and businesses?
The aim is not to predict where the world will be
To help decision-makers understand and anticipate in 2030. Instead, the series encourages leaders to
change, the World Economic Forum and Accenture think critically, creatively and purposefully about the
are launching this new series of publications entitled future and to drive action on the key issues. The
Global Economic Futures. The series uses scenario paper offers a set of actionable strategies to help
analysis as a tool to understand future trends, businesses and governments not only adapt to
vulnerabilities and opportunities, and to identify change, but also shape it.
strategies that can shape better outcomes.
We hope this paper and series will be a useful
This first edition of the series explores the future of resource for decision-makers as they navigate
productivity, a critical topic at the root of challenges an increasingly complex global landscape.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 3

Executive summary
The future of productivity – central to
economic growth and living standards
– will be shaped by technology, human
capital and adaptive business models.

Productivity has historically been a critical uncertainty. The purpose of this analysis is
driver of global growth, increasing living standards not to predict where the world will be in 2030,
and economic dynamism. However, productivity but to encourage decision-makers to think
growth has come to a virtual standstill in recent critically, creatively and purposefully about
decades, and more than half of the deceleration the future.
of global growth since 2008 can be attributed to
this slowdown. Looking at the interaction of potential acceleration
and slowdown on two key productivity drivers
– technology and human capital – results in the
Key trends shaping future following four futures:
productivity  roductivity Leap: A virtuous circle
P
1
between widespread disruptive innovation
There is little consensus on the pace of productivity and rapid human capital development leads
growth in the coming years, but many trends will to significant and broad-based productivity
influence it, including technology, skills, labour gains and a marked improvement in
markets, demographics, finance, regulation, living standards.
infrastructure and geoeconomics.
2  utomation Overload: Technological
A
For example, the commercialization of disruptive advancements outpace human capital
technologies has the potential to transform productivity, development, leading to a “winner-takes-all”
although the rate of adoption and level of impact dynamic and an economy characterized by
remain uncertain. In the case of artificial intelligence (AI), increased concentration of wealth and power.
business executives in high-income economies rate Productivity gaps widen between leading and
the productivity-boosting use of the technology nearly lagging firms, sectors and regions.
40% higher than their peers in low-income economies.
Sectorally, they expect AI to be harnessed the most 3  uman Advantage: Human capital
H
in information and technology services, financial development outpaces technological
services and energy technology in the coming years. advancement, centring economic activity
on people. Productivity growth is slow and
Human capital development will also be critical uneven, driven more by creative use of
to reversing the productivity slowdown, not existing technologies than breakthroughs.
least because of its important role in unlocking Productivity gains hinge on the ability to
technological gains. Nearly half of global business attract talent that can maximize the potential
executives cite a lack of workforce skills and visionary of technology.
leadership as the primary obstacles to AI adoption.
4  roductivity Drought: A simultaneous
P
Four scenarios for productivity slowdown in technological innovation
and human capital development stalls
in 2030 productivity growth. Economies struggle
to sustain previous levels of prosperity,
Scenario analysis offers a structured process leading to stagnation in living standards
for exploring, understanding and navigating and socioeconomic progress.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 4

Industry exposure – Promote synergies between technology
and human capital development
and implications
– Strengthen anticipatory and data-driven
Each of these futures has the potential to reshape decision-making
sectors and disrupt individual businesses. Across
12 sectors, four broad clusters are identified – Future-proof education and training systems
based on analysis of the differing headwinds and
tailwinds for corporate output and profitability – Anticipate talent needs and develop workforce
across the scenarios. Five sectors are analysed transition policies
closely, each characterized by varying levels of
exposure to technological and human capital – Accelerate adoption and diffusion of emerging
trends: information technology and digital technologies
communications; financial, professional, and
real estate services; manufacturing; energy and – Invest in the trustworthiness of emerging
materials; and education. technologies

– Strengthen critical infrastructure

Strategies for the future
– Bridge regional and sectoral gaps to mitigate
productivity divergence
The paper offers a series of high-level strategic
recommendations designed to help businesses and – Strengthen resilience to geopolitical disruption
governments maximize opportunities and mitigate
risks while harnessing the productivity potential of
trends in technology and human capital:

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 5

 1 Introduction:
Understanding productivity
Reviving productivity growth requires
tackling structural barriers such as access
to capital and talent, infrastructure gaps
and diffusion of innovation.

Productivity is more than an abstract economic Without productivity improvements, economic

statistic. For businesses, it determines profitability growth becomes reliant on expanding labour and
and market viability. For economies, it is a capital inputs – an approach that is unsustainable
fundamental measure of economic health and the in a world constrained by environmental limits, a
foundation of long-term growth and improvements dwindling workforce and tightening financial buffers.
in living standards. Differences in productivity are
what explains why countries with similar resource The remainder of this introduction looks at global
endowments can exhibit vastly different economic productivity patterns, outlining the sluggish
outcomes. For example, more than half of global dynamics of recent decades and considering the
disparities in GDP (gross domestic product) per global trends that will shape future productivity.
capita can be attributed to countries’ differing The rest of this paper will then build on this analysis
levels of productivity.1 by conceptualizing four scenarios for the future of
productivity in 2030 (see Chapter 2), assessing
Ultimately, productivity growth reflects the ability industry exposure to changing productivity
to produce more with less, owing to new ideas, dynamics (see Chapter 3) and identifying a series
innovation and the capacity of human capital to of strategic recommendations for businesses and
harness technological progress.2 governments (see Chapter 4).

1.1 
The productivity slowdown

More than half Historically, productivity has followed a pattern Country-level trends
of the deceleration of booms and slowdowns. For example, in the
early- and mid-20th century, industrialization, mass
in global economic
electrification and rapid infrastructure development The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates
growth since the
fuelled a surge in productivity. Similarly, the rapid that more than half of the deceleration in global
2008-2009 global development of new information technologies and economic growth since the 2008-2009 global
financial crisis digital infrastructure in the late 20th century spurred financial crisis (GFC) can be attributed to a slowdown
can be attributed significant productivity gains, creating new markets in productivity.5 Globally, growth in total factor
to a slowdown and reshaping industries from retail to finance. These productivity (TFP) – a measure of the effectiveness
in productivity. waves of innovation and increasing productivity with which economic inputs are combined,
were key drivers of GDP growth, rising incomes and reflecting drivers such as efficiency, innovation and
improved living standards over the last century. organizational change – has slowed from an annual
1.6% in the early 2000s to just 0.6% for the post-
More recently, however, despite the acceleration GFC period (see Figure 1). In advanced economies,
of technological development, productivity growth TFP growth halved to 0.4% over this period, while
has remained sluggish in many economies – what is the slowdown has been steeper for emerging-market
commonly referred to as the “productivity paradox”. and middle- and low-income economies, where
New technologies have delivered significant average TFP growth dropped from above 2% in the
productivity gains to frontier firms, but the wider early 2000s to 0.6% after 2008, settling near 0% in
productivity impact has been meagre.3 In fact, based low-income economies since 2020.6
on Accenture analysis, nearly 40% of large companies
recorded negative productivity growth in recent years.4

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 6

 FIGURE 1 Contribution of components of GDP Growth, 1995-2023

Figure 1.1 World Figure 1.2 Advanced economies Figure 1.3 EMMIEs and LIDCs
7 7 7

6 6 6

5 5 5

4 4 4
Percent

3 3 3

2 2 2

1 1 1

0 0 0
1995-2000 2001-2007 2008-2019 2020-2023 1995-2000 2001-2007 2008-2019 2020-2023 1995-2000 2001-2007 2008-2019 2020-2023

Capital Labour TFP Real GDP Real GDP per capita

Note: Growth decomposition sample comprises 140 countries. Contributions of capital growth and labour growth reflect output share of respective factor inputs
and the growth rates; EMMIEs = emerging market and middle-income economies; LIDCs = low-income developing countries, TFP = total factor productivity.
Source: World Economic Forum and Accenture based on International Monetary Fund, April 2024.

There is also a stark divergence in labour the three least productive regions (Central Asia,
productivity according to income levels, with high- Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa).
income economies on average nearly fifteen times
more productive compared to their low-income However, when looking at productivity growth
peers over the 2010-2024 period.7 A divergence rates rather than levels, the economies of Asia – in
can also be seen in the regional data (see Figure particular Central Asia, East Asia and South Asia –
2.1), where the three most productive regions have significantly outpaced the rest of the world
(North America, Europe and East Asia) are, on since 2010 (see Figure 2.1).
average, nearly five times more productive than

FIGURE 2 Productivity trends, by region and by sector

Figure 2.1 Labour productivity 2010-2024 Figure 2.2 Sectoral contribution to productivity growth
(level and growth), by region between 2003-2008 and 2013-2017
70 3.5 1
Productivity level, average 2010-2024

60 0
(constant 2017 international $, PPP)

Productivity growth, annualized

Percentage points

50 2.5 -1
average 2010-2024 (%)

40
-2

30 1.5
-3

20
-4
AEs EMDEs LICs
10 0.5

Agriculture Manufacturing Other industry Trade

0 0

Transport Finance Other services

NA EUR EA OC MENA LATAC SEA CA SA SSA

Note: NA = Northern America, EUR = Europe, EA = Eastern Asia, OC = Oceania, Note: “Other industry” includes mining, utilities and construction;
MENA = Middle East and Northern Africa, LATAC = Latin America and the “Other services” includes government and personal services.
Caribbean, SEA = South-eastern Asia, CA = Central Asia, SA = Southern Asia, All medians.
SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: World Bank, 2020.
Source: World Economic Forum and Accenture based on International Labour
Organization (ILO) modelled estimates, output per hour worked (GDP, constant
2017 international $, purchasing power parity).

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 7

 Business trends the strongest drag on productivity growth among
advanced economies, while for emerging-market
and developing economies, it was manufacturing.
Sector-specific trends have had a significant
impact on overall productivity patterns since the At the level of individual businesses, the gap
global financial crisis, particularly in agriculture, between frontier firms and laggards has nearly
trade, finance and manufacturing (see Figure 2.2). doubled in recent years, increasing from 6.3
This has been particularly true for low-income percentage points to 11.8 percentage points
economies, where agriculture and trade have each between 2016 and 2023, according to Accenture
accounted for more than 1 percentage point of estimates.8 A lag in technology diffusion is a key
the overall deceleration of productivity growth. reason, with many industries and firms yet to deploy
The finance and business services sector exerted and harness new technologies.

1.2 
Key drivers of future productivity

There is little consensus on the pace of generative AI tools in 2022. Over time, AI is widely
productivity growth in the coming years, but it expected to deliver a systemic economic boost,
is likely to be shaped by trends in a number of although current estimates of the extent of this
key global developments – including technology, boost are subject to significant uncertainty.10
demographics, policy and geopolitics – and by the The long-term impact of AI on global productivity
responses of policy-makers and business leaders. growth will depend heavily on how rapidly and
effectively businesses across different sectors and
regions can integrate it into their business models.
Technology
As of 2024, the use of AI to enhance productivity
remains patchy, according to the World Economic
The commercialization of disruptive emerging Forum’s latest annual survey of over 10,000
technologies has the potential to redefine the future executives globally (see Figure 3). Respondents in
of productivity. The World Bank estimates that a high-income economies rate the adoption of AI to
technology shock can raise productivity by 1.5% boost productivity nearly 40% higher than those in
in advanced and 4.5% in emerging economies low-income economies, although it is notable that no
over a 10-year period.9 This is particularly relevant countries perform very highly. Regionally, Northern
to developments in artificial intelligence (AI), the America, Oceania and South-eastern Asia are seen
archetypal current example of a frontier technology as having the highest use of AI for productivity. At the
shock, which has exploded into the public country level, Norway, the USA and Finland are the
consciousness since the launch of numerous main global leaders (see Figure 4.1).

FIGURE 3 Perception of the business community about the adoption of AI among local businesses
to enhance productivity

Latin America
and the Middle East and South-eastern
Southern Asia Northern Africa Asia
Caribbean Northern America
By region

Europe
Sub-Saharan
Africa Central Asia Eastern Asia Oceania

Lower middle income High income

By income group

Low income Upper middle income

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Low local adoption Score 1-7 (high) High local adoption

Source: World Economic Forum. Executive Opinion Survey 2024. Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 8
 The same survey reveals that service-related services sector. The energy technology and
sectors are the ones most expected to use AI to utilities sector is also seen as a leading adopter
innovate new products and business models in of AI. Among other industries, more than one-
the coming years (see Figure 4.2). Nearly half of fifth of executives expect companies in advanced
respondents expect information and technology manufacturing, engineering and construction to
services companies to generate AI opportunities, leverage AI in the near term.
closely followed by companies in the financial

FIGURE 4 Top countries and sectors expected to leverage AI opportunities

according to business executives

Figure 4.1 Top 10 economies by use of AI among Figure 4.2 Top 10 sectors to generate AI opportunities
local businesses to enhance productivity

1 Norway 1 Information and technology services

2 USA 2 Financial services and captial markets

3 Finland 3 Energy technology and utilities

4 Indonesia 4 Telecommunications

5 Israel 5 Accommodation, food and leisure services

6 Philippines 6 Advanced manufacturing

7 United Arab Emirates 7 Education and training

8 Australia 8 Media and publishing

9 Switzerland 9 Engineering and construction

10 New Zealand 10 Medical and healthcare services

Europe Middle East and Northern Africa Northern America

Oceania South-eastern Asia

Source: World Economic Forum. Executive Opinion Survey 2024.

Realizing the full productivity potential of new productivity gains from 4% to 11% if they leverage
technologies requires addressing structural barriers complementarities between data, technology and
such as access to capital and talent, digital talent, rather than focusing solely on data and
infrastructure gaps and diffusion of innovation. technology.14 Yet despite the clear importance of
While breakthroughs at the frontier carry significant human capital in maximizing productivity gains from
potential, improved access to simpler and more technology, both public and private spending on
readily available technologies can unlock wider workforce training has declined in recent years, with
productivity gains across firms and countries. For spending in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-
example, the diffusion of improvements in energy operation and Development) countries falling from
and irrigation technologies is expected to drive 0.2% to 0.1% of GDP since 2008.15
sizeable increases in agricultural productivity,11 with
the use of precision farming boosting crop yields by Human capital is also seen as the main obstacle
as much as 15%12 in some cases. to AI adoption by business leaders. Nearly half
of respondents cite a lack of skills as the primary
bottleneck, while 43% point to a lack of vision
Human capital among managers and leaders.16 By contrast, fewer
than one-third of executives highlight the cost of
AI products and services, and only one-fifth see
The adoption and diffusion of advanced regulatory constraints as key barriers.17
technologies are inextricably linked to human
capital. Recent World Economic Forum interviews Ongoing digitization is accelerating a shift towards
with business executives reveal that the successful a high-skill-intensive workforce, where both
deployment of AI depends as much or more technical expertise and non-cognitive skills – such
on people as on the technology itself.13 This as leadership and communication – are increasingly
is in line with the finding that firms can boost critical. The level of skills and their complementarity

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 9

 Global economic are particularly strong among firms at the Industrial policies are increasingly being used
fragmentation productivity frontier. On average, frontier firms have to stimulate domestic industries, promote
and financial twice the share of high-skilled workers compared to technological leadership and secure supply
constraints also laggard firms.18 However, their differentiation rests chains. However, their long-term implications for
not only on workforce composition but on the depth allocative efficiency, market dynamics, firm size
pose a challenge
and deployment of specific skills. For example, and productivity are uncertain. At the start of 2024,
to sustained
frontier firms exhibit almost twice the level of the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists
productivity gains. management and communication skills compared Outlook flagged concerns about domestic market
to laggards and more than double in ICT skills.19 distortions and global supply chain redundancies
Closing the skills gaps and enhancing the quality of arising from such interventions.22 For example, past
education and job training could unlock significant misallocations of capital and labour have already
productivity gains.20 caused a 0.6 percentage point drag on annual
productivity growth, and it is estimated that TFP
Demographic trends are also reshaping productivity growth could have been 50% higher in recent years
prospects, with the ratio of working-age individuals without these inefficiencies.23
to those aged above 65 projected to shrink from
6.4 in 2024 to 3.9 by 2050.21 Migration is likely to Global economic fragmentation and financial
play a pivotal role in mitigating these headwinds. constraints also pose a challenge to sustained
Beyond addressing labour shortages, migration also productivity gains. By 2021, business investment
drives knowledge diffusion and facilitates cross- in OECD countries had fallen by 40% from
border productivity spillovers. However, tightening pre-GFC levels.24 This decline limits the ability
labour markets and increasingly selective migration of firms to adopt new technologies and scale
policies are likely to reshape the global talent productivity-enhancing innovations. The global
landscape in the years ahead. fiscal environment, shaped by high levels of
public and private debt, risks exacerbating this
squeeze on productivity-enhancing investments,
Business environment including public spending on critical areas such
as workforce training, infrastructure and research
and development. The geopolitically-driven
The evolving business environment presents both reconfiguration of supply chains also risks reducing
opportunities and risks for productivity growth in the economies of scale and cost advantages that
the coming years. underpin productivity growth.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 10

 2 Scenarios
The purpose of these scenarios is not to
predict the future, but to understand how
technology and human capital dynamics
may affect economies and sectors.

2.1 
Framework

The narratives Technological breakthroughs, shifting regulatory – Will AI and other cutting-edge innovations
presented in this landscapes and global disruptions create an deliver real productivity gains, or will the
chapter allow environment in which traditional forecasting “productivity paradox” persist?
decision-makers methods can struggle to accommodate the
complexity and unpredictability of these dynamics. – Will investment flows and policy choices enable
to analyse how
By contrast, scenario analysis is designed to offer or stifle productivity-enhancing innovation?
the possible
a structured process for exploring, understanding
futures and the and navigating uncertainty. It encourages decision- – Will rapid technological change lead to lower
assumptions makers to think critically, creatively and purposefully costs for adoption and diffusion?
underpinning about the future.
them play out – Will geopolitical tensions and natural resource
across economies The scenarios presented in this paper should be constraints inhibit technological development
and sectors. considered in this light: as a tool to help decision- and diffusion?
makers understand trends, vulnerabilities and
opportunities and to identify strategies that can Human capital development: People are
shape better future outcomes. The narratives another critical driver of productivity. A highly
presented in this chapter allow decision-makers skilled workforce is essential to drive and adopt
to analyse how the possible futures and the innovation, as are leaders and managers capable
assumptions underpinning them play out across of identifying new opportunities and reorienting their
economies and sectors. This is a crucial step in organizations to exploit them.25 Yet, labour markets
understanding how businesses are likely to be are subject to deep uncertainty and dramatic
affected by – and can adapt to – changes. disruptions: almost two-thirds of today’s workforce
is employed in occupations that did not exist in the
The framework used to develop these exploratory mid-20th century,26 and nearly a quarter of current
scenarios starts with identifying key trends and jobs globally face disruption over the next five
drivers shaping the future of productivity (see years.27 Key questions that will shape the future of
Chapter 1) before narrowing things down to explore human capital development include:
the interaction of two particularly high-uncertainty
and high-impact drivers – to capture the most – How quickly will education and training
strategically meaningful futures. In the case of systems adapt to emerging needs?
productivity between now and 2030, those are
technology and human capital and their potential – How will demographic trends (ageing,
trajectories of acceleration and slowdown. The migration, etc) affect the global distribution
scenarios consider these dynamics throughout of human capital?
the technology and human capital ecosystems,
meaning that acceleration or slowdown can be – Will there be sufficient skills in all areas of
achieved through faster and broader improvement the global labour force (workers, leaders,
at different levels, not just at the frontier. entrepreneurs, etc) to drive productivity growth?

Technological development: Technology has – How resilient will the labour force be in the face
historically been a powerful driver of productivity of future disruptions (of skills, occupations, etc)?
growth. It is currently in a prolonged acceleration
phase, but its trajectory and impact on global Combining these two drivers generates the
productivity remain uncertain. Key questions that following four scenarios for the future of productivity
will shape future technological development include: by 2030 (see Figure 5).

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 11

 – Scenario 1. Productivity Leap: A virtuous – Scenario 3. Human Advantage: Human
circle between widespread disruptive innovation capital development outpaces technological
and rapid human capital development leads to advancement, centring economic activity on
significant and broad-based productivity gains people. Productivity growth is slow and uneven,
and a marked improvement in living standards. driven more by the creative use of existing
technologies than breakthroughs. Productivity
– Scenario 2. Automation Overload: gains hinge on the ability to attract talent that
Technological advancements outpace human can maximize the potential of technology.
capital development, leading to a “winner-takes-
all” dynamic and an economy characterized by – Scenario 4. Productivity Drought: A
increased concentration of wealth and power. simultaneous slowdown in technological
Productivity gaps widen between leading and innovation and human capital development
lagging firms, sectors and regions. stalls productivity growth. Economies struggle
to sustain previous levels of prosperity,
leading to stagnation in living standards
and socioeconomic progress.

FIGURE 5 Four scenarios for the future of productivity in 2030

Technological development

Scenario 2 Scenario 1
Automation Overload Productivity Leap

Acceleration
Human capital
Slowdown Acceleration
development
Slowdown

Scenario 4 Scenario 3
Productivity Drought Human Advantage

Source: World Economic Forum and Accenture.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 12

 2.2 
Four futures for productivity in 2030
A virtuous circle between widespread disruptive innovation
Scenario 1: Productivity Leap and rapid human capital development leads to significant and
broad-based productivity gains and a marked improvement
Acceleration of technological and human capital development in living standards.

GDP growth, % annual Labour productivity growth Total factor productivity Advanced technology
Baseline: 2.7% (GDP per worker), % annual growth, % annual adoption rate, %
(IMF, 2019-2024 average) Baseline: 1.2% Baseline: 0.7% Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO
(ILO, 2019-2024 average) (The Conference Board, 2024) 2022-2023, Accenture 2023,
Acemoglu et al. 2022)

Total R&D spending (public Share of business Public spending on Skills mismatch, % of
and private), % of GDP tasks performed by workforce training, over and underqualified
Baseline: 2.6% technology, % % of GDP employment
(World Bank, 2021) Baseline: 22% Baseline: 0.11% Baseline: 46%
(World Economic Forum, 2025) (OECD, 2021) (OECD, ILO, 2021)

Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar
existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only.

In this scenario, the world has embraced the role of computing. Sustainability concerns are ever more
human-technology complementarity as a key driver of acute as technological advances drive demand for
productivity growth. Economies have been reshaped critical resources.
by new patterns of human-technology interaction
and the emergence of new industries, business Lower costs of technology adoption have enabled
models and occupations. Managers, entrepreneurs a broader diffusion of less cutting-edge innovation,
and workers who creatively apply new technologies unlocking additional productivity gains.
are key enablers of faster productivity growth.
With nearly 22% of tasks already performed by
The twin acceleration of technology and human technology,31 the demand for workers with social,
capital development has succeeded in breaking the emotional and digital skills has increased.32 Learning
tepid growth dynamics of the preceding decades. ecosystems have been transformed to keep up with
Optimistic projections of global GDP growth evolving needs, with governments and businesses
reaching 4% before the end of the decade28 have increasing education spending and partnering with
materialized, outperforming mid-decade forecasts.29 educational institutions.

The major industrial policy initiatives of the early The skilled workforce has expanded, and skills
2020s – including the CHIPS and Science Act, transferability and augmentation have increased.
Society 5.0 and others – have spurred productivity- However, the relentless pace of technological
enhancing innovation while fears about disruption development means that some workers still
to market dynamics have not come to pass. face high risks of automation, displacement
and income stagnation.
There is a shared global awareness of the benefits
of knowledge and technology sharing. However, Although broad-based, productivity benefits are
these exchanges remain constrained by geopolitical not equally distributed in this scenario, with initial
fault lines. Competition between geopolitical “blocs” gains being strongest in businesses close to the
has driven technological acceleration at the frontier, technological frontier or with capital to integrate
while stronger knowledge and talent flows within technological advances with human ingenuity.33
those blocs have led to broad-based progress.
Advanced economies have been the main early
Global technology spending has surged, and beneficiaries due to higher technology adoption,
corporate R&D spending has accelerated from an attractiveness to talent and capital availability. Many
annual average growth of 10% in 2017-2023.30 emerging economies have gained from access to
These investments have driven innovation, technology, younger talent and dynamic industries.
increased adoption of advanced technologies However, less agile economies risk falling behind as
and shortened timelines for the commercialization the twin acceleration increases fiscal pressures and
of vanguard technologies such as quantum the economic and social costs of inaction.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 13

 Technological advancements outpace human capital
Scenario 2: Automation Overload development, leading to a “winner-takes-all” dynamic and an
economy characterized by increased concentration of wealth
Acceleration of technological development, and power. Productivity gaps widen between leading and
slowdown of human capital development lagging firms, sectors and regions.

GDP growth, % annual Labour productivity growth Total factor productivity Advanced technology
Baseline: 2.7% (GDP per worker), % annual growth, % annual adoption rate, %
(IMF, 2019-2024 average) Baseline: 1.2% Baseline: 0.7% Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO
(ILO, 2019-2024 average) (The Conference Board, 2024) 2022-2023, Accenture 2023,
Acemoglu et al. 2022)

Total R&D spending (public Share of business Public spending on Skills mismatch, % of
and private), % of GDP tasks performed by workforce training, over and underqualified
Baseline: 2.6% technology, % % of GDP employment
(World Bank, 2021) Baseline: 22% Baseline: 0.11% Baseline: 46%
(World Economic Forum, 2025) (OECD, 2021) (OECD, ILO, 2021)

Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar
existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only.

In this scenario, a growing mismatch between These advances have primarily replaced rather
new technological capabilities and workforce than augmented human labour, with displacement
readiness has emerged. Automation dominates key due to automation significantly surpassing the
sectors, businesses invest heavily in cutting-edge earlier estimates.36
technologies to mitigate talent shortages, cut costs
and stay competitive. While automation has led to Despite significant investment in education and
significant economic gains, this has not translated training programmes through the 2020s, the
into improved living standards, instead contributing global educational ecosystem has not been able
to new social and economic frictions. to adapt to meet the rapidly changing needs of a
transformed technological landscape. More than half
The global economy is more productive overall, driven of the global population lacks relevant skills. With
by technology hubs and sectors that attract a shrinking automation eliminating most repetitive and routine
pool of highly skilled workers. However, this has led tasks, a large share of the workforce has either been
to widening global divergences, with many countries relegated to low-wage, low-skill, low-quality jobs or
grappling with outdated skills, underemployment and else displaced entirely. Although AI and automation
inequality. Sustainability concerns are also mounting as have filled many gaps in the labour market, a lack
automation creates new demand for energy and critical of creative, agile and entrepreneurial talent hampers
technology components. innovation and growth.

This future reflects an intensification of winner-takes- Demographic trends exacerbate human capital
all dynamics, which have been strengthening since challenges. In most advanced economies, ageing
the turn of the century. The global economic and has contributed to talent shortages, driving further
geopolitical fractures of the mid-2020s accelerated automation.37 The growth of the cross-border digital
this trend, leading to antagonistic industrial policies workforce has been limited by global skills gaps
and slower diffusion of technology. Inputs such as and restrictive migration and labour market policies
capital and critical materials have become increasingly aimed at protecting domestic jobs.
concentrated in frontier firms and innovation
hubs, with private finance pouring into advanced The benefits of technology-enabled productivity
technologies at historic rates. This has accelerated have not been broadly shared, and inequality has
technological breakthroughs and enabled industries grown. Governments face mounting social and
to transition to fully autonomous operations, such as economic costs as automation disrupts competition,
“lights-off” factories.34 The ICT sector now accounts squeezes out businesses and threatens entire
for a significantly greater share of economic activity, communities and regions. Many developing
while the value of trade in digitally delivered services economies, in particular, risk falling further behind as
has surged from the $3.8 trillion recorded in 2022.35 they struggle to attract financial and human capital
Meanwhile, services and industries that rely on for technological leapfrogging or wider deployment
manual labour risk being marginalized. of the available technologies.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 14

 Human capital development outpaces technological
Scenario 3: Human Advantage advancement, centring economic activity on people.
Productivity growth is slow and uneven, driven more by
Slowdown of technological development, the creative use of existing technologies than breakthroughs.
acceleration of human capital development Productivity gains hinge on the ability to attract talent that
can maximize the potential of technology.

GDP growth, % annual Labour productivity growth Total factor productivity Advanced technology
Baseline: 2.7% (GDP per worker), % annual growth, % annual adoption rate, %
(IMF, 2019-2024 average) Baseline: 1.2% Baseline: 0.7% Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO
(ILO, 2019-2024 average) (The Conference Board, 2024) 2022-2023, Accenture 2023,
Acemoglu et al. 2022)

Total R&D spending (public Share of business Public spending on Skills mismatch, % of
and private), % of GDP tasks performed by workforce training, over and underqualified
Baseline: 2.6% technology, % % of GDP employment
(World Bank, 2021) Baseline: 22% Baseline: 0.11% Baseline: 46%
(World Economic Forum, 2025) (OECD, 2021) (OECD, ILO, 2021)

Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar
existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only.

In this scenario, a slowdown in technological economies have been overhauled to support more
development has put human capabilities at the human-centric economies. The education sector has
centre of productivity growth. Businesses now seen significant growth as public-private cooperation
compete on their ability to harness human talent has sought to align curricula with business needs to
at all organizational levels. A strong consensus drive human-driven competitiveness.
has emerged around the need for a human-centric
economy, with governments and businesses Global competition for talent has intensified, with
focusing on using technology to augment rather highly skilled workers gaining increased negotiating
than replace workers. power. Hybrid and remote working have surged,
and job quality has become a focal point. While
Productivity growth is uneven. While some firms top global talent enjoys wage premia and improved
and economies have harnessed improved human working conditions, labour market polarization
capital to build stronger growth foundations, global persists and many routine jobs in sectors such as
GDP38 and labour productivity growth39 rates have manufacturing, retail and services remain vulnerable
stabilized not far above their mid-2020s levels. to automation and wage stagnation.

Concerns over societal and national-security risks Inequality patterns show potential signs of
from unrestrained technological development have narrowing as human capital improvements unlock
led to more stringent regulation, slowing frontier wider prosperity benefits. Countries that invested
innovation. Automation has slowed, high-return heavily in reskilling and upskilling have positioned
technology opportunities have dried up, and AI themselves as global hubs for high-skill outsourcing.
investment has yet to reach the $200 billion mark Advanced economies that combined strong
that had been projected for the mid-2020s.40 education, lifelong learning and labour policies have
Nevertheless, the absorption of earlier technological partially mitigated productivity slowdowns linked to
breakthroughs continues to generate benefits. ageing populations.41 Many developing economies
The acceleration of human capital development with untapped human capital have also benefited
has enabled a wider and more productive use of from the increased mobility of skilled workers and
existing technologies. The improved affordability global demand for expertise.
and accessibility of existing technologies have
become a critical driver of progress for many Despite many attempts, global efforts to establish a
economies, even as geopolitical tensions constrain common framework for human capital development
the diffusion of new innovations. have fallen short. Divergent approaches to labour
and talent regulations have increased the risks of
Governments have become increasingly focused localized unemployment and wage polarization.
on maximizing human capital potential. By 2030, Many economies have prioritized domestic job and
education systems and policies in most major talent protection, amplifying regional disparities.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 15

 A simultaneous slowdown in technological innovation
Scenario 4: Productivity Drought and human capital development stalls productivity
growth. Economies struggle to sustain previous levels
Slowdown of technological and human capital development of prosperity, leading to stagnation in living standards
and socioeconomic progress.

GDP growth, % annual Labour productivity growth Total factor productivity Advanced technology
Baseline: 2.7% (GDP per worker), % annual growth, % annual adoption rate, %
(IMF, 2019-2024 average) Baseline: 1.2% Baseline: 0.7% Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO
(ILO, 2019-2024 average) (The Conference Board, 2024) 2022-2023, Accenture 2023,
Acemoglu et al. 2022)

Total R&D spending (public Share of business Public spending on Skills mismatch, % of
and private), % of GDP tasks performed by workforce training, over and underqualified
Baseline: 2.6% technology, % % of GDP employment
(World Bank, 2021) Baseline: 22% Baseline: 0.11% Baseline: 46%
(World Economic Forum, 2025) (OECD, 2021) (OECD, ILO, 2021)

Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar
existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only.

Hopes for a global productivity breakthrough have Rising fiscal and geopolitical pressures have
faltered in this scenario, with the twin slowdown undermined stimulus packages aimed at reviving
of technological and human capital development technological and human capital development,
undermining economic dynamism. While the with many governments diverting resources
complementarity between humans and technology is towards shorter-term priorities. By 2030, global R&D
recognized as a key driver of productivity, businesses expenditure had stayed close to the mid-2020s level,
and governments have failed to unlock its potential. failing to restore economic dynamism. Businesses,
meanwhile, have shifted focus to short-term cost-
Technological advancements and incremental human optimization strategies over innovation.
capital improvements have occurred in isolated
pockets, but global productivity growth and prosperity Spending on education has stalled too.43 Global
remain uneven. By 2030, global GDP growth has literacy rates have improved only marginally,
settled below early-decade projections of around 3%.42 while lifelong learning and labour policy reforms
have faltered, leaving reskilling and skill-matching
Geopolitical rivalries and economic pressures opportunities inaccessible to large segments of
during the 2020s have given rise to inward-looking the population. Skills gaps have widened in most
policies with increased government intervention economies, with the share of employers reporting
and protectionism in critical technologies. Public difficulty in recruiting people with the right skills
resistance to frontier technologies and automation spiking above 75% recorded in the mid-2020s.44
has grown, slowing the commercialization of
promising technological developments, such as AI, Labour market polarization persists, with high-skill
and prompting many businesses to cut back on knowledge workers thriving while many others
potentially transformative technological projects. remain stuck in low-skill, low-wage, low-quality
jobs. Weak human capital development has led to
Global cooperation has fragmented, leading to rising inequality, hollowing out the middle class and
duplicated innovation and supply-chain inefficiencies. exacerbating social tensions. Globally, prosperity and
Major economies have prioritized protecting key living standards continue to diverge, while progress
technologies and developing national champions, on the Sustainable Development Goals has stalled at
leading to distortions in competition and global trade. mid-2020s levels.45
By 2030, cutting-edge innovations remain confined
to global technology hubs and select industries. Global productivity growth has declined further from
Prohibitive costs, diverging regulations and stronger already weak levels. Isolated pockets of progress
barriers to knowledge and technology sharing have exist, particularly for businesses that integrated
limited the wider diffusion and scaling of technologies. earlier technological advances. However, the slow
diffusion of innovation and the growing competition
Even strong innovation ecosystems face reduced for talent have dampened the competitiveness of
dynamism due to talent shortages, trade wars and laggard firms and sectors.
shrinking supplies of critical materials.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 16

3 Industry exposure
and implications
Exploring sectoral exposure to technology
and human capital dynamics highlights
headwinds and tailwinds that will shape
the business landscape.

3.1 
Mapping industry exposure

The scenarios outlined in Chapter 2 highlight four The idea is not to suggest which scenario is more
stylized pathways for the future of technology, likely or desirable in each sector but to explore how
human capital and productivity. Each of these a range of enabling and constraining factors may
futures has the potential to reshape sectors and combine across the scenarios to generate differing
disrupt individual businesses. The purpose of the headwinds and tailwinds for corporate output
scenario analysis is not to predict where the world and profitability. This allows for an assessment
will be in 2030 but to help understand and navigate of the opportunities and risks associated with
the trends, dynamics and uncertainties that will different futures that businesses can use to inform
confront businesses, policy-makers and other their strategies.
actors in the years ahead.
The analysis relies on quantitative assessment and
This chapter builds on the analysis underpinning consultations with subject matter experts. Further
the scenarios by considering how different sectors details on data and methodology are available in
may be affected. Table 1 contains a high-level Appendix A1.
snapshot of potential exposure across 12 sectors.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 17

 TA B L E 1 Industry exposure, by scenario

Headwinds Tailwinds Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Productivity Automation Human Productivity

Leap Overload Advantage Drought

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Education

Energy and materials

Engineering, construction and utilities

Financial, professional, real estate services

Information technology and digital communications

Leisure and travel

Manufacturing

Medical, healthcare and care services

Mining (excluding fossil fuels)

Retail and wholesale of consumer goods

Supply chain and transport services

Note: Considerations in the analysis include indicators of industries’ 1. potential for automation or augmentation, 2. reliance on skilled workers,
3. skills development efforts, 4. R&D intensity, 5. vulnerability to cross-border technology restrictions, 6. potential revenue uplift from AI adoption,
7. investment capital shortage; Orange = higher potential headwinds for sectors’ output and profitability; Green = higher potential tailwinds for sector’s
output and profitability; Yellow = uncertain or inconclusive impact. See Appendix A1 for further details on methodology and data.
Sources: World Economic Forum and Accenture analysis based on data from World Economic Forum, ILO, S&P Capital IQ, Information Technology
and Innovation Foundation, McKinsey & Company.

From this analysis, four broad clusters of – Sectors with lower reliance on technology
sectors emerge, each characterized by varying and highly skilled labour – such as agriculture,
levels of exposure to technological and human forestry and fishing – appear resilient to
capital trends: disruption across the scenarios, but also exhibit
limited upside potential.
– Sectors that combine highly skilled labour
with a strong potential for technology – Sectors reliant on high levels of manual
adoption – including manufacturing and labour and niche occupation-specific skills
financial, professional and real estate services – such as mining, engineering and construction
– appear well positioned to harness both – appear more exposed to slowdowns in human
technological advancements and human capital development and shortages of the talent
capital development. needed to fully realize the potential benefits of
technological acceleration.
– Sectors with a high share of human-
centric occupations – including education The remainder of this chapter looks more closely
and medical, healthcare and care services at the implications across five selected business
– appear well-positioned to benefit from any sectors, analysing how the trends and factors
acceleration of the technological augmentation discussed interact in diverse contexts.
of roles, and from shifts towards more
human-centric economies, as in the Human
Advantage scenario.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 18

 3.2 
Implications across selected industries

Information technology According to the World Economic Forum’s Future

of Jobs Survey 2024, the sector is relatively
and digital communications less hindered by resistance to change, a lack
of awareness of opportunities or difficulties in
The sector’s dual role as an enabler and beneficiary attracting talent (see Figure 6). However, nearly
of technological innovation positions it for two-thirds of industry employers cite skills gaps as
substantial growth, particularly in scenarios marked a major barrier to transformation.
by rapid technological acceleration. Building
trust in emerging technologies, addressing data This shortage of digital talent coupled with R&D
privacy concerns and establishing responsible intensity nearly three times higher than in other
AI standards will be pivotal for unlocking long- sectors47 means that talent development can be
term opportunities. However, its proximity to a critical lever for unlocking productivity gains.
the innovation frontier and reliance on a rapidly Research collaboration with external ecosystems
advancing talent pool also make it vulnerable in the – such as academia, research institutes and
scenario of a twin slowdown. start-ups – can accelerate the development and
commercialization of emerging technologies.
The sector’s heavy reliance on cross-border data These partnerships provide access to foundational
flows exposes it to geopolitical and regulatory research and a pipeline of highly skilled talent,
challenges. The number of countries implementing enabling companies to stay at the forefront
data localization requirements nearly doubled of innovation.
between 2017 and 2021.46 Such restrictions
present significant barriers to cloud computing, Firms in the sector can increase their resilience and
data processing and internet publishing, which are growth opportunities by shifting from a short-term
among the industry’s fastest-growing segments. mindset of adopting the latest technology to longer-
Navigating these complexities will require term strategies focused on durable value creation.
substantial investments in compliance frameworks While more than three-quarters of software-as-a-
and strategic localization, such as adapting supply service companies have launched or are developing
chains or building local infrastructure to meet generative AI offerings, only 15% have successfully
regional regulations. monetized these initiatives.48

FIGURE 6 Barriers to transformation in the next five years

Skills gaps in Medical, healthcare Financial, professional, Energy and

and care services real estate services materials
the labour market
Information
Information technology and Education Supply chain and technology
Organization culture transport services and digital
digital communications
and resistance to change communications

Agriculture, Medical, healthcare

Outdated or inflexible Information technology and Manufacturing forestry and and care services
digital communications fishing
regulatory framework

Inability to attract talent Information technology and Manufacturing Leisure and travel
digital communications
to the industry

Lack of adequate data Education Energy and

materials
and technical infrastructure

Insufficient understanding Energy and Information technology and Agriculture, forestry

materials digital communications and fishing
of opportunities

Inability to attract Information technology and Manufacturing

digital communications
talent to the firm

Financial,
Average professional, real Education
estate services

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Share of respondents (%)

Source: World Economic Forum. Future of Jobs Survey 2024.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 19

 Nearly half Financial, professional, technological adoption while developing economies
of employers in could see higher relative gains from lower baselines.
real estate services Urbanization and shifting investment flows
the sector see
resistance to could boost real estate services in all scenarios,
change as the This sector’s heavy reliance on skilled labour particularly those favouring productivity growth.
and advanced technologies should position it to
main barrier to
capitalize on emerging opportunities for productivity To capture these gains, businesses must align
transformation in
growth. Banking, for instance, could see a 30% technology and talent strategies with agile
the next five years. productivity improvement from AI adoption in the business models. Significant challenges remain.
next three years.49 In real estate, technologies According to the World Economic Forum’s Future
such as digital twins and internet of things (IoT) of Jobs Survey 2024, nearly half of employers in
integration are also driving efficiency and innovation. the sector see resistance to change as the main
barrier to transformation in the next five years,
However, while the sector’s high capacity for closely followed by outdated or inflexible regulatory
technological and skills absorption could amplify frameworks (see Figure 6). Industry actors have also
productivity, this reliance also exposes the sector highlighted skills gaps and a lack of adequate data
to risks, such as under the twin slowdown that and technical infrastructure as barriers.
characterizes the Productivity Drought scenario.
Moreover, the sector has historically lagged in
productivity growth and it contributed significantly Manufacturing
to the post-financial crisis slowdown in advanced
economies.50 Despite significant investments in
digitalization over the years – above $1 trillion The manufacturing sector’s patterns of productivity
according to Accenture estimates51 – productivity growth are poised to create divergence
improvements have been patchy, and many core between innovation-intensive industries – such
operations in the financial sector, such as foreign- as aerospace, automotive, electronics and
exchange transactions, can still rely on legacy pharmaceuticals – and other segments. Advanced
processes and algorithms. industries are growing three times faster than
the broader manufacturing sector, driven by
The sector’s automation potential, at over 53% of their ability to attract global talent and develop
work time, suggests opportunities to mitigate talent and integrate cutting-edge technologies.53 For
shortages and reduce repetitive tasks. In financial instance, the automotive industry is using AI to
services alone, generative AI could save up to $158 develop autonomous vehicles and expand into
billion in work hours annually in the US.52 However, service offerings like software subscriptions, with a
legacy systems, complex decision-making projected increase in operating margins from 7% to
structures and the need for analytical and creative 12%.54 Similarly, technological acceleration is likely
skills will still require human-centric improvements, to boost demand for electronics, semiconductors,
particularly in consumer-facing functions. specialized manufacturing equipment and supply
chain innovations. Hardware spending is projected
Regional dynamics in the sector vary. Advanced to account for 24% of total AI investments,55
economies, with established infrastructure and underscoring the opportunity for manufacturers
greater capital availability, are better positioned for ready to scale.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 20

 Targeted However, innovation-intensive sectors face risks This includes involving workers in digitization and
investments in the scenarios defined by talent shortages, automation processes, supporting job transitions
in high-potential fragmentation and winner-takes-all dynamics. With and promoting a culture that embraces change.
technologies and only 45% of the workforce engaged in upskilling,56 However, more than one-third of manufacturing
manufacturers may face significant challenges in employers highlight resistance to change and
talent development
building a qualified talent pool. According to the outdated or inflexible regulatory frameworks as
are essential to
World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Survey significant barriers to transformation (see Figure 6).
unlock sustainable 2024, skills gaps and difficulties in attracting talent
productivity are identified as the top barriers to transformation
gains in the in the next five years (see Figure 6). Energy and materials
manufacturing
sector. Industries further from the innovation frontier, while
less affected by technological breakthroughs, can The energy and materials sector is shaped
achieve substantial gains through human-centric by the competing dynamics of more capital-
improvements and the adoption of technologies intensive segments, such as oil and gas, and
throughout their value chains. Predictive maintenance, more innovation-driven green energy. Both sub-
for example, can increase equipment effectiveness industries are poised to benefit from advances
and reduce unexpected breakdowns by 60%.57 With in technology and talent development. Wider
assembly line costs comprising 16% of manufacturing benefits can also be unlocked through digitalization
sector revenues, such advancements offer significant of value chains, automated fault detection
cost savings and productivity gains,58 even in the systems, improved grid management, predictive
absence of broad-based technological acceleration. maintenance in resource extraction and improved
access to highly specialized talent. Nearly half
Regional dynamics are affecting the pace of of industry executives expect AI investments to
adoption across the sector. Advanced economies improve organizational effectiveness,60 while more
with high labour costs and demographic pressures than one-third plan to use AI to improve operational
are rapidly automating. This is exemplified by a resilience and efficiency.61
leading Japanese manufacturer achieving a 35%
cost reduction through robotics.59 In high-productivity scenarios, there is likely
to be an acceleration of green innovation and
Manufacturers in many developing economies a scaling up of green energy technologies,
may face risks if automation leads to reshoring such as wind, solar and hydrogen. This would
or shortens global supply chains. Technological contribute significantly to a broader increase in
acceleration can also create opportunities for faster electricity demand across the economy, with AI
industrialization and technological leapfrogging for alone projected to increase data centres’ power
many developing economies, albeit infrastructure, consumption by 160% globally by 2030.62 This may
investment and talent gaps can create substantial contribute to the continued growth of renewables
obstacles to productivity growth. in the long term, but in the short to medium term,
the energy mix is likely to require both renewable
Targeted investments in high-potential technologies and non-renewable sources. The supply of critical
and talent development are essential to unlock materials, if constrained by geopolitical tensions,
sustainable productivity gains in the sector. poses a significant challenge.63

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 21

 Strategic The sector’s reliance on highly specialized skills, acceleration are likely to drive growth opportunities
partnerships coupled with low transferability, presents risks in for education providers as demand for training and
between scenarios of talent shortages. While automation can specialized skills increases. Broader technology
governments, increase efficiency in extraction and processing, integration across the sector could amplify
widening skills gaps threaten grid security and could productivity, open new markets and improve
businesses
stall productivity across the value chain. To address profitability. For instance, AI adoption alone is
and education
these challenges, the sector will need to attract projected to bring $200 billion in value by 2025.66
providers will top talent while prioritizing upskilling and reskilling
be essential to to retain industry-specific expertise.64 Human While automation can enhance productivity and
meeting evolving capital improvements can unlock efficiency gains, education outcomes,67 the sector’s reliance on
skills demand in especially in more labour-intensive activities, but highly skilled educators and training providers is
both technology- the impact may be limited without the integration likely to ensure that human-delivered services will
and talent-driven of technologies. remain essential. Futures shaped by technological
scenarios. slowdowns, such as the Human Advantage
In scenarios of twin slowdowns in technological and scenario, may unlock growth opportunities tied to
human capital development, the resulting higher increased demand for skilled labour and human-
energy costs could ripple across industries. Limited centric occupations.
progress on green technologies risks increasing
reliance on fossil fuels and exacerbating global Strategic partnerships between governments,
energy insecurity. Skills gaps, talent acquisition businesses and education providers will be
difficulties and regulatory hurdles remain key essential to meeting evolving skills demand in
barriers to transformation by 2030 (see Figure 6). both technology- and talent-driven scenarios.
These challenges are particularly acute for energy For example, initiatives to enhance workforce
technology firms, with 81% identifying skills gaps employability and develop skills for AI and other
as a critical obstacle, compared to 54% in oil emerging technologies can create opportunities
and gas.65 for growth in corporate microlearning services,
a market valued at approximately $1.9 billion
Energy companies must balance investments in 2021.68
between maintaining existing infrastructure
and advancing energy transition technologies. Operational improvements, such as cloud-based
Innovations such as battery storage, hydrogen systems, can increase the scalability and agility of
and carbon capture, while capital-intensive, can education services, enabling providers to deliver
offer long-term productivity gains by reducing “just-in-time” or on-demand learning tailored to
reliance on volatile energy prices. Given the capital industry needs. This operational flexibility positions
intensity and extended payback periods of energy adaptable and innovative education providers for
projects, focusing on modular and scalable projects growth in a competitive and dynamic environment.
that enable incremental investments aligned
with growing demand can help build agility and Digital education ecosystems have the potential
optimize costs. to boost accessibility, inclusion and individualized
learning pathways in many advanced economies.
However, the greatest gains in the sector may
Education be achieved in developing markets with weaker
educational infrastructure and structural talent
The education sector’s critical role in driving gaps. Subsidized digital classrooms, hybrid learning
technological and talent development positions it models and targeted educator training can help
as a key enabler of productivity and growth across address regional disparities and expand access
most scenarios. In futures of accelerating human to quality education. However, these efforts face
capital development, the sector stands to benefit significant hurdles, as nearly two-thirds of the global
from increasing investment by governments and population still lacks internet access, limiting the
businesses. Similarly, scenarios of technological potential for broad-based gains.69

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 22

4 Strategies for the future
Informed and creative decision-making can
help businesses and governments not only
adapt to change, but shape it too.

Whether the dynamics discussed above drive development can shape patterns of productivity,
innovation, stagnation or disruption depends on profitability, prosperity and well-being.
the informed, creative and long-term thinking
and actions of decision-makers. The following Whether technology accelerates or slows and
considerations have been selected to help whether human capital surges or lags behind,
governments and businesses prepare for a wide the strategies below aim to maximize opportunities,
range of potential productivity futures. Each of them mitigate risks and harness the potential of these
responds to how the critical interplay between two powerful drivers of change.
technological advancements and human capital

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 23

 TA B L E 2 Strategy considerations for businesses and governments

Promote synergies For businesses: Align strategies on education, workforce development and innovation to ensure
between technology technology and human capital evolve in tandem.
and human capital
For governments: Strengthen integration of innovation, knowledge and learning ecosystems
development
and policies through partnerships with educators, technologists and industry leaders.

Strengthen For businesses: Use foresight tools, big data analytics and real-time feedback loops to inform operational
anticipatory and strategic decision-making. Invest in leadership development and create agile governance structures
and data-driven to break silos and encourage innovation and dynamic decision-making.
decision-making
For governments: Institutionalize foresight practices and anticipatory policy design. Develop decentralized
decision-making mechanisms and national data frameworks that balance privacy with the need for robust,
actionable insights into economic trends. Invest in developing public sector talent to strengthen innovation
and change management.

Future-proof For businesses: Establish dynamic partnerships with educational institutions to co-develop industry-
education and relevant curricula and invest in robust in-house reskilling and upskilling programmes. Invest in talent
training systems development and ensure equitable access to training opportunities.
For governments: Strengthen the education and training ecosystem to meet evolving labour market
needs, increase skills transferability, ensure equitable access to learning and encourage lifelong learning,
technological literacy, adaptability and creativity.

Anticipate talent For businesses: Establish talent mobility frameworks to enable transition across occupations and to
needs and tap into global talent pools as business needs evolve. Invest in augmentation and involve workers in
develop workforce digitalization and automation processes.
transition policies
For governments: Develop workforce transition policies and strengthen safety nets for workers at
risk of displacement. Engage businesses to co-create sector-specific training pipelines and incentivize
investment in human capital development and retention. Strengthen workforce inclusion and develop
talent mobility policies to attract top global talent, e.g. through fast-track visas.

Accelerate adoption For businesses: Collaborate with governments, technology leaders and industry peers on initiatives
and diffusion to scale and disseminate productivity-enhancing technologies throughout the value chain. Invest in
of emerging developing technological leadership and align technology and operational strategies to maximize return
technologies on investments.
For governments: Reduce barriers to technology access for smaller firms and underserved regions
through subsidies, infrastructure investments, regulatory sandboxes and public-private innovation hubs.
Incentivize innovation and entrepreneurship culture and ensure broad-based participation across the
economy (e.g. small and medium business, rural and urban areas).

Invest in the For businesses: Implement ethical frameworks and guardrails to ensure transparency in technology
trustworthiness design, development and deployment and to build accountability and stakeholder trust. Engage
of emerging stakeholders through open communication.
technologies
For governments: Develop ethical frameworks and transparent regulations for AI and automation to
address societal concerns and build public trust in new technologies. Engage society and industry
stakeholders to develop policies that address biases and balance innovation with accountability.

Strengthen critical For businesses: Integrate digital infrastructure upgrades into core strategy and invest in supply
infrastructure chain infrastructure to build resilience, improve efficiency and maximize market access.
For governments: Invest in infrastructure development to close digital gaps, increase resilience
and boost efficiency in critical areas such as transportation and energy.

Bridge regional and For businesses: Develop localized strategies to secure supply chains, market access and efficiency in
sectoral gaps to peripheral areas of operation. Partner with governments, educational institutions and other stakeholders
mitigate productivity to facilitate adoption of emerging technologies and the development of human capital across underserved
divergence regions, sectors and value chain components.
For governments: Invest in regional innovation hubs, reduce informality and implement targeted policies
to support lagging regions and industries, including targeted investments, tax incentives and workforce
relocation and development programmes.

Strengthen resilience For businesses: Strengthen technology supply chains through diversification and safeguard access
to geopolitical to human capital by investing in flexible workforce strategies, such as cross-border talent mobility and
disruption expanded remote working.
For governments: Pursue bilateral and multilateral agreements to safeguard knowledge exchange,
movement of people and supply-chain continuity, while diversifying to reduce reliance on any single region
or market.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 24

 Appendices
A1 
Methodology

The industry implications analysis in Chapter for sectoral output and profitability for each
3 evaluates the exposure of 12 sectors to the scenario. The analysis also incorporated qualitative
human capital, technology and productivity trends consultations with subject-matter experts to validate
outlined in the four scenarios in Chapter 2. This and contextualise the findings.
evaluation results in an “industry impact matrix”
visualized as a heat map that provides a high-level The industry impact matrix was constructed
snapshot of potential headwinds and tailwinds using a three-step process:

1 2 3
Dimension and indicator selection Dimension-scenario coefficients Aggregation

Seven dimensions, reflecting enabling Each dimension was assigned a Normalized indicator values for
and constraining factors within the multiplier coefficient ranging from -1 to each sector were multiplied by the
scenarios, were chosen to capture 1 for each of the scenarios, reflecting dimension-scenario coefficients.
key aspects of industry performance the expected direction and intensity of The summed results for each sector
influenced by technological and human correlation between the dimension and were then categorized according to
capital dynamics. These dimensions, business performance in that scenario the following thresholds to produce
along with their rationale and the (see Table 3). For example, the the heat map presented in Table 1
indicators used to measure them multiplier coefficient of “1” for the “Skills in Chapter 3.
across the 12 sectors, are summarized development efforts” dimension in the
in Table 4. Range-based normalization Human Advantage scenario represents >1 Higher potential tailwinds
was applied to convert all indicator strong positive correlation between 0.25 to 1 Potential tailwinds
values into a unitless score between industries’ skills development efforts
-0.25 to 0.25 Uncertain or inconclusive impact
0 and 1. and their performance in the future
shaped by human-centric business -1 to -0.25 Potential headwinds
models and high competition for talent. <-1 Higher potential headwinds

TA B L E 3 Direction and degree of indicator correlation with industry performance across scenarios

Productivity Automation Human Productivity

Dimension Leap Overload Advantage Drought

Potential for automation and augmentation 1 1 0.5 0.5

Reliance on skilled workers 1 -0.5 0.5 -1

Skills development efforts 1 0.5 1 0.5

Corporate R&D intensity 1 0.5 0.5 -0.5

Vulnerability to cross-border technology restrictions 0.5 -0.5 -1 -1

Revenue uplift from AI adoption 1 0.5 0 -0.5

Shortage of investment capital -1 -1 0 -0.5

Source: World Economic Forum and Accenture.

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 25

 TA B L E 4 Indicator descriptions and sources

Dimension Indicator Rationale Source

Potential for Proportion of worktime Reflects industries’ capacity to automate or augment World Economic Forum.
automation and with potential for processes, with high potential for automation or (2023). Jobs of Tomorrow:
augmentation automation or augmentation often linked to substantial productivity Large Language Models and
augmentation (%) improvements. Jobs

Reliance on skilled Share of high-skilled Reflects industries’ dependence on skilled labour. International Labour
workers workers in industry Sectors with a higher share of skilled workers are Organization (ILO). (2023, or
workforce (%) better positioned to leverage technological change latest available)
but face risks from talent gaps and shortages.

Skills development Share of the workforce Measures industries’ action to reskill and upskill World Economic Forum.
efforts that has completed workers. Industries with higher average training efforts (2024). Future of Jobs
training which bridged are likely to be more agile and resilient in the evolving Survey.
skills gaps (%) talent and technology landscape.

Corporate R&D R&D spending as a Serves as a proxy for industries’ focus on innovation. S&P Capital IQ. (2019-2023
intensity share of revenue (%) Industries with higher R&D intensity are generally average)
better positioned to drive and absorb innovation and
technological advancements.

Vulnerability to cross- Data intensity (non- Captures the impact of fragmentation on industry Information Technology
border technological capitalized software operations and access to technology. Industries with and Innovation Foundation.
restrictions expenditure per worker) higher data intensity are likely to be more exposed to (2021).
(%) fragmentation trends within the scenarios.

Revenue uplift Uplift to annual revenue Estimates the contribution of AI to revenue growth, McKinsey & Company.
from AI adoption due to AI (%) offering a proxy for potential output gains from (2023). The economic
adopting advanced technologies. potential of generative AI:
The next productivity frontier.

Shortage of Share of respondents Accounts for structural financial constraints limiting World Economic Forum.
investment capital reporting “shortage industries’ ability to invest in technology or human (2024). Future of Jobs
of investment capital” capital, and reducing their capacity to respond Survey.
as the main barrier to to shocks.
transformation in the
organization in the next
five years (%)

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 26

Contributors
World Economic Forum Accenture

Aengus Collins Nick Kojucharov

Head, Economic Growth and Transformation, Principal Director, Macro Foresight
Centre for the New Economy and Society – North America Lead

Kateryna Karunska Yik Chi Tan

Insight Lead, Economic Growth and Transformation, Manager, Macro Foresight
Centre for the New Economy and Society
Chris Tomsovic
Saadia Zahidi Managing Director, Macro Foresight
Managing Director, World Economic Forum and – Global Lead
Head, Centre for the New Economy and Society

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to our colleagues at the World Production

Economic Forum and Accenture, who have
provided invaluable insights and support over the
course of this project. At the World Economic Laurence Denmark
Forum: Till Leopold, Attilio Di Battista, Armita Creative Director, Studio Miko
Behboodi, Jesse Caemmerer, Philipp Grosskurth,
Sriharsha Masabathula and Eoin Ó Cathasaigh. Martha Howlett
At Accenture: Andre De Silva, Jane Xu and Editor, Studio Miko
Terry Hammond.
Oliver Turner
Designer, Studio Miko

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 27

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Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 30

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