Weston Burcar

Climate Change: Causes, Impacts, Solutions

ADAPTATION OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Introduction:

Forests provide numerous ecosystem services, with one of their most crucial roles being

Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon sink (USFS 2022; USGCRP 2023). This paper explores the

complex interactions between forests and Earth’s climate system, examining both the adaptive

potential of forest ecosystems to climate change and their resilience in the face of mitigated

climate change. It will also highlight human-mediated adaptation strategies that have been

implemented or researched.

Our limited understanding of how forest ecosystems respond to and interact with climate

necessitates further research in this field. Particularly important areas for investigation include

regional forest-climate interactions as well as overall global influence of forests on climate. The

importance of ecosystems for human climate resistance, and the necessity for human-mediated

adaptation to sustain these ecosystems in the face of a rapidly changing climate, emphasize the

importance of continued research and improvement of forest management.

Additionally, risks to forest ecosystems outside of climate change (e.g. deforestation,

land-use, fire-suppression, etc.) may pose greater risk to these ecosystems than climate change

and exacerbate the impacts of climate change when these impacts are combined (Compound

Disturbances) (Krieder et al 2024; USGCRP 2023). Therefore, the need for improved

management strategies is crucial, and there may be a need to implement additional adaptation

technologies such as agroforestry and wood vaulting, which meet multiple objectives (removing

fuel and capturing carbon), and are discussed further in the subsequent sections.

The goal of this paper is to support the argument that, with our help (i.e., mediated

adaptation combined with well-informed management/conservation practices), forest

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ecosystems can persist, and biodiversity can be maintained, and in turn this will benefit society

economically and otherwise (e.g. preserving water quality & quantity).

Value of Forests, Ecosystem Services & Economic Benefits:

Forest ecosystems are diverse and are made up of much more than just trees; they are

a complex interaction of biological, physical, and chemical processes that perform vital

ecosystem functions. These functions include soil formation and stabilization, nutrient cycling,

habitat provision, and the maintenance of complex food webs that support biodiversity among a

range of trophic levels. Organisms range from fungal networks and microbial flora to large

mammals and most obviously, trees.

Forests also provide many ecosystem services to society, from water quality/quantity

regulation to carbon sequestration (USGCRP 2023). EPA (2022) reported that approximately 13

percent of GHG emissions in the United States (US) were offset by forests and trees in 2020,

highlighting their crucial role in climate mitigation efforts. This offset represents a significant

economic benefit when considering the avoided costs of alternative carbon capture

technologies. In terms of the economy, forests are a critical component, in large part due to the

raw materials they provide for construction. The American Forest & Paper Association reported

that forests contributed about $336 billion to the US economy in 2020 (AF&PA 2022).

Additionally, the economic losses due to mismanagement of forests (e.g. unsustainable

deforestation of the Amazon for agriculture) are immense. Strand et al (2018) estimated that the

Amazon rainforest contributes greater than $8 billion in economic benefits annually. This

emphasizes the economic importance of sustainable forest management.

Impacts of Climate Change:

Climate change is significantly affecting Earth’s natural processes, transforming the

biosphere at multiple scales, from individual species to entire ecosystems. Climate change, in

conjunction with other influencing factors, is increasing the severity of wildfires, heatwaves,

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drought, flooding, and sea-level rise (IPCC 2023). These changes affect individual species and

broader ecosystems and their biodiversity through spatial (e.g. range shifts) temporal (e.g.

altered phenology), and ecosystem functions (e.g. changes in primary productivity and nutrient

cycles) (USGCRP 2023). Ongoing monitoring of ecosystem changes in the US (and globally)

aids in understanding these impacts (USGCRP 2023). Additionally, compound disturbances like

deforestation exacerbate ecosystem decline, highlighting the need to address these issues to

improve resilience to climate change. Observed ecosystem transformations include the shift

from dry forests to grasslands in North America and the transition of coastal forests to ghost

forests and marshlands due to sea-level rise (USGCRP 2023).

Emerging research enhances our understanding of how forest ecosystems respond to

climate change. Studies indicate that biodiversity correlates positively with climate resilience,

making its preservation crucial for ecosystem protection (USGCRP 2023; Oliviera et al. 2022).

Climate change affects phenology, disrupting cyclical patterns such as leaf-out and flowering

(USGCRP 2023). Phenology depends on temperature, so the predicted/observed impacts of

climate change typically include earlier leaf-out and later leaf coloring, although the complexity

of these interactions with overall ecosystems is poorly understood (Piao et al 2019). These

phenological shifts can create mismatches between species, such as between pollinators and

flowing times, which could disrupt critical ecosystem services, as pollination accounts for an

estimated $24 billion in annual revenue in the US (reported by the Obama White House in

2014).

While many climate-induced changes pose significant challenges to ecosystem stability,

they also reveal potential adaptation opportunities that include strategic adjustments in

management (USFS 2022; Weiskopf et al., 2020). Fortunately, ongoing research and

advancements in technology enable the implementation of strategies that may enhance

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ecosystem resilience, such as mangroves for coastal protection (Horstman et al 2014), assisted

tree migration (Chakraborty et al. 2024), and climate-ready revegetation (Peng et al. 2019).

Furthermore, species are undergoing range shifts, migrating poleward or to higher

elevations (Parolo & Rossi, 2008; Davis et al. 2020). In the Southern Rocky Mountains, wildfire

(exacerbated by climate change) has promoted upward range shifts of Aspen (Populus

tremuloides) where pine forests had been thinned by fire. Importantly, climate resilience varies

among species and ecosystems, adding to complexities in understanding these processes (Fei

et al. 2017; Oliviera et al. 2022; Wang et al. 2023).

Forest-Climate Interaction:

Among the myriads of ecosystem services provided by forests, from water quality

regulation to wood production, forests also influence climate regionally and globally.

Management of forests also impacts climate. For example, wildfire suppression keeps carbon

out of the atmosphere yet increases the risk of high-intensity fires that are not only more

destructive but produce GHG emissions and reduce air quality (Urbanski 2014). The global

impact of forests on climate is not fully understood, as effects vary by region, scale (spatial and

temporal) of effects, species composition, and numerous other factors (Bonan 2016).

The complexity of forest-climate interactions manifests in several key areas:

1. Radiative Effects

2. Hydrological influences

3. Biogeochemical processes

Generally, it is understood that forests have a warming effect due to low albedo

(radiative effects), but also contribute to cooling due to evapotranspiration (hydrological

influences), carbon cycling/storage (biogeochemical processes), and higher surface roughness

than non-forested areas (i.e. grasslands). The albedo of forests is lower than that of grasslands

due to the darker canopy coloration (2016).

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Beyond those generalizations, there are marked variations in the forest-climate system.

For example, biogeochemical processes (photosynthesis, decomposition, etc.) of forests cause

annual-scale climate warming in northern (temperate and boreal) forests, while tropical forests

contribute to climate cooling. The biosphere is highly complex, with variables from microbial

interactions to ecosystem processes that are difficult to account for in a climate model. Bonan

(2016) called out the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to improve our understanding of

forest-climate interactions. These variable interactions create feedback loops that can either

amplify or reduce the effects of climate change, depending on forest type, geographic location,

and management practices. Understanding these effects on a global scale is critical with

respect to climate change.

Adaptation Opportunities:

Despite the challenges that climate change presents to forest ecosystems, opportunities

for natural and human-mediated adaptation exist. Importantly, human-mediated adaptation

methods must involve caution to avoid long-term consequences. Felton et al (2024) warn that

“repeated intensive interventions” may have long term costs of biodiversity loss and ecosystem

decline, which limit resilience to climate change. The authors argue that anthropogenic input

must be limited to avoid these consequences, focusing on simple management alternatives. For

example, resistance to pathogens can be achieved in the short term by developing pathogen-

resistant trees, but the natural alternative to this, which better promotes long-term resilience, is

avoiding monocultures and promoting biodiversity. Nevertheless, human-induced climate

change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and necessitates some level of intervention on

our part.

Government agencies have already begun to plan adaptation measures, such as the US

Forest Service (USFS) who have published a Climate Adaptation Plan (2022). This plan outlines

management strategies that the agency has determined to be useful in adapting to changing fire

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regimes, extreme weather, amplified stressors, etc. Adaptation Partners, a group focused on

climate change adaptation in the Western US in collaboration with the USFS, has published a

library of specific adaptation options for forest managers

(https://adaptationpartners.org/library.php). These mostly include adaptive management

methods such as transitioning forests from high to moderate fire-danger conditions, where they

propose methods like controlled burns as well as increased wildfire education for homeowners

in the Wildland-Urban-Interface (WUI). Many of these management strategies involve forest

thinning and aim to maintain genetic diversity and sustain ecological functions. Adaptive

silviculture is a management strategy being tested by the USFS (Nagel et al 2017), which

involves tailoring forest management to the specific needs of a forest through research on the

local ecosystem dynamics.

Reforestation is an adaptation method that has the potential to mitigate climate change if

well-informed (IPCC 2022). In other words, when land managers are implementing reforestation

efforts they must consider predicted impacts of climate change, as well as information regarding

forest-climate interactions as discussed in the previous section. Climate change is occurring

more rapidly than many species can migrate, especially slow-growing vegetation like trees,

therefore assisted transition and migration can improve outcomes, artificially improving forest

resilience to climate change. Transition involves planting more resilient/suitable species in

places where another species is reaching their limit of resilience to climate change. This

strategy can be used to sustain ecosystem processes by replacing one species with another.

This can occur naturally, such as the wildfire-driven transition of conifer forests to more fire

resilient shrubland and hardwood in the Western US and could be replicated by forest

managers (Steel et al 2021). This strategy also necessitates caution, as there are numerous

examples of introduced species causing damage to local species and ecosystems. The concept

of climate-ready revegetation is an assisted migration technique that involves using modeled

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projections of climate to plan for the future. Broadhurst et al (2019) developed a guide to help

natural resource managers implement climate-ready revegetation, to develop sustainable

climate-resilient forest ecosystems. Climate models are becoming more and more advanced

and may allow land managers to plan ahead for assisted migration of species to more suitable

climate conditions (Stanturf et al 2024). For example, a group of researchers in Mexico (Soliman

2024) have begun employing assisted migration to relocate a species of fir to protect the

migration pathway of monarch butterflies, which rely of these forests along their journey.

Other, engineering-based, adaptation strategies also exist. Wood vaulting is an example

of an innovative climate adaptation strategy that synergistically combines forest management

objectives with carbon sequestration goals (Zeng and Hausmann 2022). Wood vaulting involves

wood harvesting, followed by storage in an anaerobic environment which prevents its decay.

Currently, this strategy has only been tested on a small scale but claims to achieve mega-to

giga-ton-scale carbon removal over several decades. Once completed, the wood vault can be

converted back to usable land. This strategy not only sequesters carbon but could be

implemented for forest thinning and fuel removal which are climate-change and wildfire

management strategies employed/suggested by the US Forest Service. Economic

considerations of this technology include reduced fire management costs and carbon credit

potential.

Another, similar, adaptation method that can store carbon and promote healthy forests if

employed responsibly is sustainable forestry (Boyle et al 2013). Sustainable forestry employs

forest ecology and silvicultural practices to promote biodiversity and mimic natural disturbances

to the forest, while supporting the economic benefits of this industry. One method of

implementing sustainable forestry is certification by organizations like the Forest Stewardship

Council, which was shown to be less damaging to biodiversity and benefit large mammals from

gorillas to elephants more than non-certified forests in western Africa (Zwerts et al 2024). This is

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still a developing area of research, and forest managers of the Elliott State Research Forest in

Oregon are conducting a study to answer the question “in a world where wood remains a

necessary resource, but biodiversity if declining, what is the best way to balance timber

production with conservation?” (Tollefson 2021). This study is testing various land management

strategies across the research forest, ranging from no logging, to intensive logging, to a mix of

ecological forestry treatments combined with logging. The goal is to find a balance of timber

production and ecosystem health and could lead to important findings for the future of

sustainable forestry.

Agroforestry has also been suggested as a potential natural climate solution that

incorporates trees/forests into farming and/or ranching operations (Terasaki Hart et al 2023).

This strategy aims to meet agricultural needs while maintaining ecosystem functions and

promoting biodiversity. It can either be done by thinning forest to make room for agriculture, or

by afforestation of agricultural lands. Estimates of carbon mitigation place agroforestry at the top

of agricultural climate solutions, making this a powerful mitigation and adaptation strategy.

In summary, there are numerous and varied potential adaptation strategies that have

been researched or successfully implemented and these can serve as a starting point for forest

managers everywhere to begin implementing strategies that will preserve our vital forest

ecosystems.

Conclusion:

The importance of forest ecosystems cannot be understated. Their ecosystem function,

services, and interactions with society and climate have been discussed above. Many of these

ecosystems are at risk due to human-induced climate change, and we have an opportunity to

implement adaptation strategies to help them persist. However, the intricate relationship

between forests and climate demands a cautious and multi-faceted approach to management

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and adaptation. Successfully maintaining forest ecosystems services and functions while

adapting to climate change will require:

- Improved Scientific Understanding: continued research, ongoing monitoring, and

enhanced modelling

- Management Innovation: continued research into adaptive management

strategies, integration of traditional and novel approaches, ongoing risk assessment

- Stakeholder Engagement: educating stakeholders; improving participation of

global to local government, communities, and corporations

It is evident that forest ecosystems play a critical part in our response to climate change,

and that humans have a role in mediating the adaptation of forests. Mitigating climate change by

reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains paramount for improving ecosystem outcomes.

Nonetheless, various adaptation strategies can support ecosystem persistence, yet adaptation

strategies need to be scrutinized to avoid maladaptation and long-term consequences. More

research, involving inter-disciplinary collaboration, will aid in our understanding of the complex

interactions with and responses to climate experienced by forest ecosystems. Currently,

numerous adaptation opportunities exist, including adaptive management as well as innovative

technologies.

In summary, using mediated adaptation combined with cautious and well-informed

management/conservation practices, forest ecosystems can persist, and biodiversity can be

maintained, and in turn this will benefit global economies and human well-being, as well as the

health of our planet.

Citations and Description of Articles/Reports:

Adaptation Partners - Climate Change Adaptation Library for the Western United States. (n.d.).

https://adaptationpartners.org/library.php

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AF&PA, 2022: Our Economic Impact. American Forest and Paper Association.

https://www.afandpa.org/statisticsresources/our-economic-impact

Bonan, G. B. (2016). Forests, Climate, and Public Policy: A 500-Year Interdisciplinary Odyssey.

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 47(1), 97–121.

https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032359

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