TOPIC 2: PROBABILITY

Defn: Is the chance /likelihood of an event happening/occurring. It is just the numerical measure of
that likelihood.

Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1 ie let P(A) be the probability that event A occurs, then

 If P(A) = 0 it means it is an absolute impossibility that event A will occur

 If P(A) = 1 it means it is absolutely certain that A will occur.

Probability =

If the possibility space S consists of a finite number of equally likely outcomes, then the prob of an event
A, P(A) is defined as P(A) =

Also denotes A does not occur then P(A1) = ⇒ P(A1) = 1 – P(A)

TWO OR MORE EVENTS

If A and B are any two eventsof the same experiment such that P(A) and P(B) then
P(A or B) = P
NB P(A means either A or B or both may occur.

ADDITION RULE: [ ]

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

If event A can occur OR an event B can occur BUT NOT BOTH A and B can occur, then the two events A
and B are said to be mutually exclusive.

Here A and B are disjointed thus

EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS

If two events A and B are such that , then and the

events A and B are said to be exhaustive

Assignment:
1. If events and A and B are such that they are both mutually exclusive and exhaustive, find the
relationship between A and B . Give examples of such events.

2. In a group of 30 students all study at least one of the subjects, physics and biology. 20 attend the
physics class and 21 the biology class. Find the probability that a student chosen at random studies
both physics and biology.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

If A and B are two events where P(A) and P(B) then the probability that A occurs given that B
has already occurred is the conditional probability of A denoted P

Now . Since it is given that B has already occurred then B becomes the new
possibility space.

REMARK

1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events then since P(A and P(B) it follows that
P(A/B) =0.
2. ⇒ P(A/B).P(B) = P(A and ⇒ P(B/A).P(A) = P(B
⇒ P(A/B).P(B) = P(B/A).P(A).

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

If either of two events A and B can occur without being affected by the other, then the two events are
said to be independent, ie the occurrence of event A does not affect the occurrence of event B. If
events A and B are independent, P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)

Now since P(A then …THE MULTIPLICATION RULE.

PROBABILITY TREES

A tree diagram is a diagram that depicts events or sequences of events as branches of a tree.

NOTE: You should be able to use tree diagrams to solve probability problems.

ACTIVITY

1. Gendah Ex 3.5 page 69

2. Crawshaw Ex 3d
 WORKSHEET 2
1. Jun 2004 # 4

A box contains three fuses, one good and two defective. Two fuses are drawn in sequence without
replacement. Calculate the probability that
(a) the second fuse drawn is defective, [3]
(b) the second fuse drawn is defective if the first is defective. [3]

2. Nov 2007 # 1

A building society gives both adjustable-rate mortgage and fixed-rate mortgages on residential
property. It breaks residential property into three categories: low density houses, high density
houses and blocks of flats. The following table give probabilities appropriate to this situation.

Low density High density Blocks of flats

Adjustable-rate 0.285 0.240 0.100
Fixed –rate 0.115 0.200 0.060
Find the probability that
i) the building society gives a mortgage for a low density property, [1]
ii) the building society gives a mortgage for a low density property to each of the four people who are
first to apply, [2]
iii) a mortgage is adjustable-rate given that it is for low density property. [2]

3. Nov 2008 # 2
A school selects 55% of its lower sixth pupils from its own O level pupils and the remainder
comes from other schools. It is established that 90% of accepted A-level students who did their
O-level outside the school pass their A-level studies, and that 70% of those who did their O-level
studies at the school pass their A-level studies. A pupil is selected at random fro the recent A-
level graduate of the school. Find the probability that the pupil
i) passes A-level studies. [4]
ii) did O-level outside the school, given that the pupil passes A-level studies. [2]

4. Nov 2009 # 3
Three tickets for a musical show are sent to a high school musical club. Fifteen girls and ten
boys would like a ticket. If the three people to receive a ticket are chosen at random, find the
probability that they will be
i) exactly 2 boys, [3]
ii) at least 2 girls. [3]

5. Nov 2010 # 5
Three players A, B and C, in that order, throw a fair cubical die. The first to throw a 6 wins. The
game is continued until one of the players wins.
 a) Find the probability that A wins
i) on his first throw, [1] ii) on his second throw, [2] iii) the game. [3]
b) Given that the probability that B wins is , find the probability that C wins. [2]

6. Nov 2011 #1
A roulette wheel contains 38 numbers of which 18 are red, 18 are black and 2 are green. When
the roulette wheel is spun, it is equally likely to land on any of the 38 numbers. In two plays at
the wheel , find the probability that
a) the ball lands on red both times, [2]
b) the ball lands on green the first time and on black the second time. [2]

7. Jun 2014 # 1
A bag contains 24 counters of which 6 are red, 8 are green and 10 are yellow. The counters are
taken from the bag at random without replacement.
i) Show that the probability that 2 of the counters taken are green is [2]
ii) Given that 2 of the counters are green, find the probability that the first counter taken is red.
[3]

8. Jun 2016 # 3
Bag A contains 3 red balls and 2 white balls. Bag B contains 2 red balls and 3 white balls. A bag is
selected at random and the two balls are drawn from it, one after the other without
replacement.
a) Find the probability that the two balls drawn are red. [2]
b) Given that the two balls are red, find the probability that they are from bag A. [3]

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