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Conditional & Bayes

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Darshan Gogoi XII B
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3 views2 pages

Conditional & Bayes

Uploaded by

Darshan Gogoi XII B
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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CONDITIONAL PROBABILT Y & BAYE’S THEOREM

Conditional Probability
Let A and B be any two events with the same sample space of a random
experiment. Then the probability of occurrence of A under the condition that B has
already occurred s.t. 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0 is known as conditional probability. It is denoted as
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵).

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴/𝐵 = ; 𝑃 𝐵 ≠0
𝑃(𝐵)

Properties
Let A and B be events of a sample space S. then

 𝑃 𝑆/𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵/𝐵 = 1
 𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)/𝐹 = 𝑃 𝐴/𝐹 + 𝑃 𝐵/𝐹 − 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝐹 ; 𝑃 𝐹 ≠0
 𝑃 𝐴/𝐹 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴/𝐹

Note
1. If A and B be any two independent events then 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃(𝐵)
2. If A and B be any two dependent events then
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃 𝐵/𝐴 ; 𝑃 𝐵 ≠0
𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 . 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵 ; 𝑃 𝐴 ≠0

Total Probability
Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , … , 𝐸𝑛 be any 𝑛 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
associated with a random experiment. If 𝐴 be any event which occurs with
𝐸1 𝑜𝑟 𝐸2 𝑜𝑟 … 𝑜𝑟𝐸𝑛 then
𝑛

𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐸𝑖 . 𝑃 𝐴/𝐸𝑖 ; 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑖=1

Baye’s Theorem
Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , … , 𝐸𝑛 be any 𝑛 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
associated with a random experiment. If 𝐴 be any event which occurs with
𝐸1 𝑜𝑟 𝐸2 𝑜𝑟 … 𝑜𝑟𝐸𝑛 then

𝑃 𝐸𝑗 . 𝑃 𝐴/𝐸𝑗
𝑃 𝐸𝑗 /𝐴 = 𝑛 ; 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐸𝑖 . 𝑃 𝐴/𝐸𝑖

Telegram:@kuntaljyotisaikia Email:kuntaljyoti.saikia@gmail.com 1
CONDITIONAL PROBABILT Y & BAYE’S THEOREM

Exercise
1. Two marbles are drawn successively from a bag containing 3 black and 4 white
marbles. Find the probability that both the marbles are black if the first marble is not
required before the second drawing.

2. The probability that a student selected at random from a class will pass in
4
Mathematics is 5 and the probability that he/she will pass in both Mathematics and
1
Computer Science is 2. What is the probability that he/she will pass in Computer
Science, if it is known that the student has passed in Mathematics?

3. A coin is tossed then a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a six given that
heads come up.

4. Find the probability of drawing a diamond card in each of the two consecutive draws
from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards, if the card drawn is not replaced after the first
draw.

5. A die is rolled twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 7. What
is the conditional probability that number 2 appeared at least once?

6. Three urns contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black balls respectively.
One of the urns is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is
found to be red then find the probability that it is drawn from the first urn.

7. A factory has three machines X, Y and Z producing 1000, 2000 and 3000 bolts per day
respectively. The machine X produces 1%, Y produces 2% and Z produces 3%
defective balls. At the end of the day a bolt is drawn at random and found to be
defective. What is the probability that this defective bolt has been produced by
machine X?

8. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 card drivers and 6000
truck drivers. The probability of an accident involving a scooter driver, a car driver
and a truck driver is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured people
meets with an accident. What is probability that that person is a scooter driver?

9. In an examination, an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the answer to an


1
MCQ with 4 choices. The probability the he/she makes a guess is 3 and the
1
probability that he/she copies the answer is 6. The probability that the answer is
1
correct given that the examinee copies it is 8. Find the examinee knew the answer to
the question given that the examinee correctly answered the question.

10. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports it is a
six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.

Telegram:@kuntaljyotisaikia Email:kuntaljyoti.saikia@gmail.com 2

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