BUAN 574/OM 544: ASSIGNMENT #1: Introduction to Forecasting / Some Basic Tools

INSTRUCTIONS: Use MINITAB to complete the following questions. You are to work
independently on this assignment. For your convenience, all data sets required to complete
the assignment are provided (just download from Brightspace to your device). All data sets are
saved as Minitab worksheets. Therefore, you need to be within Minitab to open data files.
Please view the first Minitab tutorial to see how to access the software from my.Scranton and
how to open data files from within Minitab that have been saved to your device. Please
submit your completed assignment, with relevant MINITAB output (including graphs) and
your comments (when asked for) as ONE WORD document via the drop box. This
assignment is worth a total of 100 points. Note that there are 4 questions.

[24 pts] 1. Use the data set Baggage Complaints. Air carriers report cancellations,
overbookings, baggage complaints, etc. to the U.S. government, which
compiles the data and reports it to the public. This data set contains
monthly observations on some of these issues from 2004 to 2010 for
United Airlines, American Eagle, and Hawaiian Airlines.

[8 pts] (a) Prepare a time series plot that shows the number of baggage complaints
For United Airlines (United Baggage). What time series component(s) is
(are) evident?
[8 pts] (b) To compare across airlines, it is better to use baggage complaints by
number of enplaned passengers. These are shown as percentages in the
last three columns of the worksheet (Complaints/Enplanement for AE
(American Eagle), H (Hawaiian) and UA (United Airlines)). Obtain
descriptive statistics on Complaints/Enplanement for each airline.
Compare across airlines in terms of central tendency and variation.
[8 pts] (c) Prepare a time series plot that shows Complaints/Enplanement for all
three airlines on the same time series plot (use the Multiple option and
enter C17 through C19). Interpret. What important aspects of these data
are apparent in this plot that cannot be determined from descriptive
statistics alone?

[20 pts] 2. Use the data set Screen Time. In order to determine if the number of
notifications and number of times an app is opened (unlocked) relate to
total usage (screen time), data were collected on these measures daily from
August 26, 2022, through September 21, 2022.

[6 pts] (a) Prepare a scatterplot of Total Usage versus Notifications. Describe the
relationship.
[6 pts] (b) Prepare a scatterplot of Total Usage versus Unlocks. Describe the
relationship.
[8 pts] (c) Compute the correlations among the three variables. Which variable
would be the better predictor of Total Usage? Explain.
[24 pts] 3. Consider the following two sets of data:

[8 pts] (a) Use the data set Truck Sales. These data represent monthly sales data
for trucks from a specific company throughout the year (January 2003
through November 2014). Prepare a time series plot. What time series
component(s) is (are) evident?
[8 pts] (b) Use the data set US Population 1960-2023. In addition to the total
population, a variable named Population Density gives the population per
square kilometer (annually). Prepare a time series plot for Population
Density. What time series component(s) is (are) evident?
[8 pts] (c) Use the data set Tesla Stock Price. This data set contains, in addition to
other variables, the daily closing stock price (adjusted for dividends and
splits) for Tesla, Inc. from January 2, 2019, through December 29, 2013.
Prepare a time series plot for Adj. Close. What time series component(s)
is (are) evident?

[32 pts] 4. Use the data set Gold Prices that shows the price per 10 grams of 24-carat
gold daily from January 1, 2024, through October 31, 2024.

[8 pts] (a) Prepare a time series plot for these data. What is the dominant time
series component?
[24 pts] (b) Naïve forecasts have been prepared for this series and are stored
in C3. In addition, the errors, or residuals (Actual –
Forecast) have
been computed and are stored in C4. Using these errors, compute
the MAE, MSE, and MAPE.