INTERNAL

ASSESSMENT - 6
Name - Savitri
class - 10 C
Rollno - 3
 TASK - 1

Individual task : Write a mathematical essay ( 300-400 Words ) on any of the following
topic addressing the following aspects - ( Criteria - C )
1. Probability :
❖ Define probability and its significance.
❖ Explain the types of probability, highlighting their differences.
❖ Discuss the concept of sample space and its connection to probability.
❖ Explore compound events and mutually exclusive events, explaining their
characteristics.
❖ Illustrate the applications of probability in real-life scenarios.
MATHEMATICAL ESSAY

ON PROBABILITY
 INTRODUCTION
Definition and Significance of Probability
Probability is a branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood or chance of an event
occurring. It is used to quantify uncertainty in situations where the outcome is not deterministic
but can be predicted based on known information. Probability is expressed as a number between
0 and 1, where 0 means that the event will definitely not occur, and 1 means that the event will
definitely occur. In practical terms, probability plays a significant role in a variety of fields such as
finance, insurance, sports, medicine, and even in daily life.
For instance, in the context of weather forecasting, meteorologists use probability to predict the
chances of rain, snow, or clear skies. In insurance, companies calculate the probability of
accidents, health issues, or natural disasters to set premiums. Understanding probability allows us
to manage risk and make better-informed decisions.
Formula:
The probability of an event AAA is calculated using the formula:
 For example, if a die is rolled, the total number of possible outcomes is 6 (since a die has six faces). If
you want the probability of rolling a 4, there is only one favorable outcome (rolling a 4), so:

Types of Probability
Probability can be classified into three main types: Classical Probability, Empirical Probability, and Subjective
Probability.
Classical Probability
Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely. It applies to situations where
each outcome is equally probable, such as tossing a fair coin or rolling a fair die. Classical probability is calculated by
dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

Formula:

Example:
For a fair six-sided die, the probability of rolling a 4 is:
Empirical Probability
Empirical probability is based on the observed outcomes from an experiment. Instead of assuming
that all outcomes are equally likely, it calculates probability based on the frequency of events
observed in actual trials. The empirical probability formula is:

Formula:

Example:
If a die is rolled 100 times and the number 3 is rolled 30 times, the empirical probability of rolling a 3 is:

Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is based on personal judgment, intuition, or experience rather than statistical data. It is
used when there is limited or no data to calculate probability in a formal manner. This type of probability is often
used in situations where making predictions is necessary, but there is not enough concrete evidence.
Example:
If someone is asked about the probability of their favorite football team winning the next match, they might
provide a subjective estimate based on their knowledge of the team's performance, player condition, or past
results.
3. The Concept of Sample Space and Its Connection to Probability
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Understanding the sample space is crucial
because it forms the basis for calculating the probability of events. For example, when tossing a coin, the sample
space consists of two outcomes: heads and tails. Similarly, when rolling a six-sided die, the sample space consists of
six outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
The sample space represents all possible outcomes, and the probability of an event is calculated as the ratio of
favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes in the sample space.

Example:
When tossing a coin, the sample space is:
S={Heads,Tails}
The probability of getting heads is:
P(Heads)=1/2

When rolling a six-sided die, the sample space is:

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

The probability of rolling a 4 is:

P(Rolling a 4)=1/6
4. Compound Events and Mutually Exclusive Events
Compound Events: Compound events involve the occurrence of two or more events. These events can
either be independent or dependent.
Independent Events: The occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event.
For example, if a coin is tossed and a die is rolled, the probability of getting heads on the coin and a 4
on the die are independent events.
Formula for independent events:
P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)
Example:
The probability of getting heads on a coin toss and a 4 on a die roll is:

Dependent Events: The outcome of one event affects the outcome of the other event. For example, when
drawing two cards from a deck without replacement, the probability of drawing a second card depends on the
first card drawn.
Formula for dependent events:
P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)

where P(B∣A)is the probability of event B occurring given that event A has already occurred.
 Mutually Exclusive Events: These are events that cannot happen simultaneously. If one event occurs, the other cannot. For
example, when tossing a coin, the events "Heads" and "Tails" are mutually exclusive because both cannot occur at the same
time.
Formula for mutually exclusive events:
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)
Example:
When tossing a coin, the probability of getting either heads or tails is

5. Applications of Probability in Real-Life Scenarios

Probability is applied in various real-life scenarios to make informed decisions, assess risks, and predict outcomes.
Insurance: Insurance companies use probability to assess the likelihood of claims (such as accidents, health issues, or natural
disasters). Based on this, they calculate premiums and determine the coverage options they offer.
Games and Sports: Probability is frequently used in games and sports to predict the chances of a team winning. For example,
the probability of winning a football match can be estimated based on team performance, player statistics, and historical
data.
Finance: In the stock market, probability is used to predict the chances of a stock's value increasing or decreasing. Risk
analysis tools, such as value at risk (VaR), use probability to calculate the potential financial loss in investment portfolios.
Medical Diagnosis: Doctors use probability in medical diagnostics to determine the likelihood of a patient having a particular
disease based on symptoms, test results, and medical history.
Weather Forecasting: Meteorologists use probability to predict weather patterns. For example, if the probability of rain
tomorrow is 80%, it means there is an 80% chance that rain will occur.
 CONCLUSION

Probability is a powerful mathematical tool that helps quantify uncertainty and make
predictions in various fields of life. Understanding the concepts of sample space, compound
events, mutually exclusive events, and types of probability enables us to calculate and
interpret the likelihood of events. Whether in insurance, sports, finance, or medicine,
probability provides a framework for making informed decisions in uncertain situations. By
applying probability principles, we can navigate the complexity of real-world problems and
make better predictions and choices.
 TASK - 2

Design a real-life scenario to illustrate the concept of ogives (less-than and

more-than types). Example: Comparison of marks obtained in mathematics in term 1 and term
2. Use the following criteria to ensure an effective presentation: ( Criteria - D )
Note : Use an example other than the above.
1. Identify key elements of the real-life situation.
2. Select appropriate mathematical strategies to address the situation.
3. Apply the chosen strategies effectively to solve the problem.
4. Justify the accuracy of the solution.
5. Confirm that the solution is reasonable and meaningful within the context of the situation.
Real-Life Scenario: Analyzing Monthly
Income Distribution of Small Business
Owners Using Ogives
1. Identify Key Elements of the Real-Life Situation:
In this scenario, we are analyzing the monthly income distribution of 30 small business owners in a city to
understand their economic conditions. The main objective is to use ogives (less-than and more-than types)
to visualize and model the distribution of income levels, allowing us to identify the central tendency
(median income) and observe the spread of incomes. By doing so, we can understand the income disparity
and make meaningful conclusions for targeted interventions or support.

Data Provided: The incomes of 30 small business owners are grouped into five income ranges, each
with a corresponding frequency.
Goal: To use ogives to determine the median income, visualize the income distribution, and assess
whether there are disparities in income.
2. Select Appropriate Mathematical Strategies to Address
the Situation:
The relevant central tendency in this situation is the median since it helps identify the central value,
which gives us an idea of the typical income level for small business owners in the city. The ogives (less-
than and more-than types) will be constructed from the cumulative frequency of the income
distribution to determine the median and help visualize the data.

The steps for solving this problem are:

Group data into intervals (e.g., $0 - $1000, $1001 - $2000, etc.).

Calculate the frequency for each income range.
Construct cumulative frequency tables for both less-than and more-than ogives.
Calculate the median income using the less-than ogive and use the more-than ogive to check the
cumulative frequency.
Here are the ogives for the scenario of small business owners' monthly incomes:
The Less-than Ogive shows the cumulative frequency of business owners earning less than or equal to each
income level.
The More-than Ogive shows the cumulative frequency of business owners earning more than or equal to each
income level.
3. Apply the Chosen Strategies Effectively to Solve the Problem:
Income Distribution Table:

Constructing the Less-than Ogive:

To create the less-than ogive, we will plot the cumulative frequencies on the vertical axis and
the upper boundary of each income interval on the horizontal axis. The less-than ogive will
show how many business owners have an income less than or equal to a certain value.
For the less-than ogive, the data points will be:
(1000, 4)
(2000, 12)
(3000, 22)
(4000, 28)
(5000, 30)

We can then connect these points to form the less-than ogive, which will show the cumulative percentage of
business owners with incomes below or equal to each income level.
Constructing the More-than Ogive:
For the more-than ogive, we will plot the cumulative frequencies on the vertical axis and the lower boundary of each
income interval on the horizontal axis. The more-than ogive will show how many business owners earn more than or
equal to a certain income.
For the more-than ogive, the data points will be:

(0, 30)
(1000, 26)
(2000, 18)
(3000, 8)
(4000, 2)
This will provide a visual of how many business owners earn more than or equal to a given income level.
Finding the Median:
Total number of business owners: 30
Median corresponds to the 15th data point (since the total number of observations is 30, the median will be the
value of the 15th data point in the cumulative frequency distribution).
From the less-than cumulative frequency column, we see that the cumulative frequency becomes 12 after the 1000
- 2000 income range and 22 after the 2000 - 3000 range. Therefore, the 15th data point falls within the 2000 -
3000 income range.
To calculate the exact median, we use the interpolation formula:

Where:
LLL is the lower boundary of the median class (2000),
NNN is the total number of data points (30),
FFF is the cumulative frequency before the median class (12),
fff is the frequency of the median class (10),
hhh is the class width (1000).

Thus, the median monthly income of the small business owners is $2300.
4. Justify the Accuracy of the Solution:

The accuracy of the solution is ensured because the cumulative frequencies were correctly
calculated for both ogives, and the median was calculated using the appropriate interpolation
method. All data points have been accounted for, and the cumulative frequencies add up correctly
to 30, which confirms the data has been properly organized and represented.
Additionally, the use of the less-than and more-than ogives provides a comprehensive visual
representation of the data, allowing us to verify the median and understand the income
distribution. The interpolation of the median ensures precision within the 2000 - 3000 income
range.
5. Confirm that the Solution is Reasonable and Meaningful Within the
Context of the Situation:
The solution is reasonable and meaningful within the context of this real-life situation. The median
income of $2300 represents the central tendency of the income distribution, indicating that half of
the small business owners earn below $2300, and half earn above it. This is meaningful for city
planners, financial institutions, or policymakers who may be interested in addressing income
disparities or designing support programs for small businesses. The ogives help visualize the income
distribution, making it easier to understand the proportion of business owners in each income range.
Furthermore, the more-than ogive allows us to visualize the proportion of business owners with
higher incomes, which can be useful in identifying the upper-income group and designing targeted
economic support programs.
Overall, this solution provides valuable insights into the income distribution of small business owners
and is directly applicable for decision-making in the context of economic planning and resource
allocation.
 CONCLUSION
The use of less-than and more-than ogives in analyzing real-life scenarios, such as the monthly income
distribution of small business owners, provides valuable insights into data trends. By plotting cumulative
frequencies, we can visually determine the median income, helping in financial assessments, policymaking, and
economic planning.
In this scenario, the less-than ogive allows us to see the proportion of business owners earning below a certain
threshold, while the more-than ogive helps analyze those earning above a specific amount. The intersection of
these ogives determines the median, giving a clearer picture of income distribution.
Overall, ogives serve as a powerful statistical tool, aiding in decision-making processes where data-driven
insights are crucial, such as in business analysis, education, and income disparity studies.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY
NCERT Mathematics Textbook for Class 10 – Concepts of Statistics and Probability.
S. Chand’s Mathematics for Class 10 – Explanation of cumulative frequency curves
(ogives).
RS Aggarwal Mathematics for Class 10 – Application of central tendencies and ogives.
Khan Academy (www.khanacademy.org) – Online resources for statistics and probability.
NCERT Exemplar Problems for Class 10 Mathematics – Advanced problems on ogives
and median determination.
Mathematics Today Journal – Articles on real-life applications of probability and
statistics