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Erica's Errors - Statistical Distributions - Answers

The document outlines Erica's mistakes in solving statistical distribution problems, providing corrections and explanations for each error. Key issues include miscalculating probabilities, forgetting coefficients in binomial distributions, and using incorrect values in cumulative distribution functions. The document also highlights assumptions made in modeling a gaming machine's outcomes and the need for accurate probability thresholds.

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earthrous
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33 views3 pages

Erica's Errors - Statistical Distributions - Answers

The document outlines Erica's mistakes in solving statistical distribution problems, providing corrections and explanations for each error. Key issues include miscalculating probabilities, forgetting coefficients in binomial distributions, and using incorrect values in cumulative distribution functions. The document also highlights assumptions made in modeling a gaming machine's outcomes and the need for accurate probability thresholds.

Uploaded by

earthrous
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ywf 2nffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffErica’s Errors On Statistical Distributions -

Answers
Erica is tackling her statistical distributions homework and knows that she’s made
mistakes somewhere. Can you spot and correct the mistakes Erica has made?
Can you explain what mistakes Erica has made, and maybe give her some tips so
that she (hopefully) doesn’t make them again?
Question 1:
A discrete random variable has a probability distribution shown in the table below:
𝑥 1 2 3 4
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 𝑎 + 0. 1 2𝑎 + 0. 05 3𝑎 4𝑎 − 0. 35
Find 𝑃(𝑋≥2).

Erica’s answer: Your answer:


Need to find 𝑎: Need to find 𝑎:
10𝑎 − 0. 2 = 1 10𝑎 − 0. 2 = 1
𝑎 = 0. 12 𝑎 = 0. 12
Therefore 𝑃(𝑋≥2): Therefore 𝑃(𝑋≥2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 1):
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 0. 36 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 0. 22
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 0. 13 1 − 0. 22
Answer: 0. 49 Answer: 0. 78

What mistake has Erica made?


Erica has calculated 𝑃(𝑋 > 2) not 𝑃(𝑋≥2).

Question 2:
Given the random variable 𝑋~𝐵 20, ( 2
5 ), find 𝑃(3 < 𝑋 < 6).
Erica’s answer: Your answer:
We need to calculate the following: We need to calculate the following:

2 4 3 16 2 4 3 16
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = ( ) ( )
5
× 5
= 0. 00000722 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) =
20×19×18×17
4×3×2×1
× ( ) ( )
5
× 5
2 5 3 15 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 0. 0350
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = ( ) × ( ) = 0. 00000481 2 5 3 15
5 5 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) =
20×19×18×17×16
5×4×3×2×1
× ( ) ×( )
5 5
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = 0. 0746
Answer:
0. 00001203 Answer:
0. 1096

What mistake has Erica made?


Erica forgot the coefficients of the binomial distribution.
Question 3:
The random variable 𝑋~𝐵(50, 0. 35).
Find 𝑃(𝑋 > 24).

Erica’s answer: Your answer:


𝑃(𝑋 > 24) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋≤23) 𝑃(𝑋 > 24) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋≤24)
Using the tables in the formula book or Using the tables in the formula book or
the calculator: the calculator:
𝑃(𝑋≤23) = 0. 9604 𝑃(𝑋≤24) = 0. 9793
1 − 0. 9604 1 − 0. 9793
Answer: Answer:
0. 0396 0. 0207

What mistake has Erica made?


Erica hasn’t used the correct value on the binomial cumulative distribution function.

Question 4:
A gaming machine is programmed to allow players to win 20% of the time.
The gaming machine is played 30 times in one day.
𝑋 = the number of wins on the gaming machine.
Suggest a suitable distribution for 𝑋, giving any assumptions you have made.
Use your distribution to find the smallest value of 𝑤 such that 𝑃(𝑋≥𝑤) < 0. 01.

Erica’s answer: Your answer:


A suitable distribution is: A suitable distribution is:
𝑋~𝐵(30, 0. 2) 𝑋~𝐵(30, 0. 2)
Assumptions are that the probability ofAssumptions are that the probability of
winning remains constant. winning remains constant, the only other
option is not winning, the game was
Using the tables in the formula book: played exactly 30 times and each game
𝑃(𝑋≤10) = 0. 9744 was independent of the others.
𝑃(𝑋≤11) = 0. 9905 Using the tables in the formula book:
Answer: 𝑤 = 11 because the probability 𝑃(𝑋≤10) = 0. 9744
0. 01 is between those two values. 𝑃(𝑋≤11) = 0. 9905
Since 𝑃(𝑋≥𝑤) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋≤𝑤 − 1)…
Answer: 𝑤 = 12

What mistake has Erica made?


Erica has made two errors:
1.​ There are more assumptions than just the probability being constant
2.​ She has chosen the wrong value for 𝑤; the probability of winning 12 or more
times is 0. 0095 which is less than 0. 01 whereas the probability of winning 11
or more times is 0. 0256

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