Week 12 Tropical Revolving Storm
Week 12 Tropical Revolving Storm
WEEK 12
>Dangerous semi-circle
INTRODUCTION
A weather system that forms over warm ocean waters and features a low-pressure
center with strong winds and organized convection. These storms are known by
different names in various parts of the world, including hurricanes (Atlantic and
northeastern Pacific), typhoons (northwestern Pacific), cyclones (southwestern Pacific
and Indian Ocean), and simply tropical storms. The specific term used depends on the
region in which the storm occurs.
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1. Formation of Tropical Revolving Storms:
o Warm Ocean Waters: Tropical revolving storms require warm ocean
waters with sea surface temperatures typically exceeding 26°C (about
79°F). Warm water provides the energy needed for their development.
o Atmospheric Instability: Warm, moist air rises from the ocean's surface,
creating a low-pressure system. This rising air cools and condenses,
releasing heat and further intensifying the storm.
o Coriolis Effect: The Earth's rotation causes the developing storm to spin,
with counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise
rotation in the Southern Hemisphere.
o Organized Convection: Thunderstorms and rain bands cluster around the
low-pressure center, leading to the storm's distinctive structure.
2. Locations and Names of Tropical Revolving Storms:
o Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific: In the Atlantic Ocean and the eastern
Pacific Ocean, these storms are known as "hurricanes." The Atlantic
hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with the
most active period between August and October. Hurricanes are
categorized using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates
them from Category 1 (weakest) to Category 5 (strongest).
o Northwestern Pacific: In the northwestern Pacific Ocean, these storms
are referred to as "typhoons." The typhoon season in this region is year-
round, with a peak season from June to November. Typhoons are
categorized by the Japan Meteorological Agency, with similar categories
to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
o Southwestern Pacific and Indian Ocean: In the southwestern Pacific
and the northern Indian Ocean, these storms are known as "cyclones."
The cyclone season varies by region but typically ranges from November
to April. Different regional agencies classify cyclones using various scales,
such as the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale for Australia and
the Southwest Indian Ocean.
o Southern Hemisphere (excluding the Australian region): In parts of
the Southern Hemisphere not covered by the Australian region, they are
also known as "tropical cyclones." These areas have their own
classification systems for tropical cyclones.
o Australian Region: In the Australian region, these storms are called
"tropical cyclones." The Australian region uses its own scale for
categorizing cyclones, known as the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Scale.
o South Atlantic: In the South Atlantic, tropical storms are rare, and they do
not have a specific naming convention. In 2004, the Brazilian Navy began
naming these storms, but this is an exception rather than the norm.
Each of these regions has its own meteorological agencies responsible for monitoring
and naming tropical revolving storms. The names of significant storms are selected from
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predefined lists, which are often rotated or reused in subsequent years. This naming
system helps in tracking and communicating the progress and impact of these storms to
the public.
Tropical revolving storms can have varying levels of intensity, classified on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (for Atlantic and northeastern Pacific storms) or other
regional scales. They are capable of causing a range of hazards, including strong
winds, heavy rainfall, storm surges, and flooding. Preparedness and timely evacuation
can be critical in reducing the impact of these storms on human populations and
infrastructure.
1. Electronic Medium
o
▪ The Radio/Telex/NAVTEX – A relevant NavArea must be selected
for the message.
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o EGC- Via Sat- C normally.
o Internet based options- If vessel is equipped with internet facility then such
phenomena can be checked 7-8 days in advance through various
government operated sites.
o Weather Routing agencies – With dedicated team for the TRS
/ Storm watch and have multiple data from reliable sources who can make
a better and accurate assessment of the forecast with suggestion to avoid
the TRS.
2. Swell
When there is no sight of intervening land, the sea might generate swell within a
TRS, indicating an early warning of the formation of the same, the swell normally
travels as far as 500 nm from the center of the storm eye. Normally, the swell
travels outward from the direction of the storm.
3. Atmospheric pressure
If the corrected barometer reading falls below 5 mb or more for the mean
reading( Information from Sailing Direction) for that time of the year, you can
expect a (Tropical Revolving Storm) TRS and fall is pressure by 20 mb means
vessel is very close to the eye of the storm. The barometer used must be
corrected for latitude, height, temperature etc. to achieve maximum possible
accuracy and efficiency.
4. Wind
Wind direction and speed is generally fairly constant in the tropics.
Variation from the normal direction for the area and season, and increasing wind
speed, are indications of the approach of a Tropical Revolving Storm, i.e., an
appreciable change in the direction or strength of the wind indicates a Tropical
Revolving Storm (TRS) in vicinity.
5. Clouds
A very candid and colorful sky at sunrise and sunset may be a sign of a brewing
TRS. Presence of cirrus clouds is visible at a considerable distance of 300 to 600
miles from the TRS and as you approach the TRS, the Cirrus cloud can be in the
form of strands or filaments with aligned conditions and points towards the storm
center. Generally followed by cumulus clouds as you get closer to the Tropical
Revolving Storm (TRS).
o Semi circles: A TRS is divided in 2 parts, which are,
▪ Right-hand semicircle (RHSC): It is the imaginary half of the
storm, which lies to the right of the observer, who faces along(
Same Direction) the route of the storm. For a stationary observer,
here the wind veers steadily.
▪ Left-hand semicircle (LHSC): It is the half of the storm, which lies
to the left of the observer, who faces along the route of the storm.
For a stationary observer, here the wind backs steadily.
▪ Semicircles
Navigable semicircle — It is the side of a tropical cyclone, which lies to the left of
observer in the direction of movement of the storm in the Northern hemisphere (to
the right of the observer in the Southern Hemisphere), where the winds are weaker and
better for the navigation purpose, although all parts of TRS are more or less dangerous
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to mariners, at least 100 nm should be maintained in this Semicircle to avoid severe
damages to vessel caused by the high sea & swells.
Dangerous semicircle— It is the side of a tropical cyclone, which lies to the right of
the observer of the direction of movement of the storm in the Northern Hemisphere (to
the left of the observer in the Southern Hemisphere), where the storm has the strongest
winds and heavy seas, at least 180-200 nm of distance should be maintained to avoid
severe damages to the vessel caused by the high seas & swells
1. Warm Ocean Waters: These storms form over warm ocean waters with sea
surface temperatures typically exceeding 26°C (about 79°F). Warm water
provides the energy needed for the storm to develop and strengthen.
2. Low-Pressure Center: At the core of a tropical revolving storm is a region of low
atmospheric pressure. Air converges into this low-pressure center, creating the
cyclonic circulation.
3. Strong Winds: Tropical revolving storms have strong, sustained winds that can
exceed 74 mph (119 km/h) for tropical storms, 74 mph or more for
hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones. These winds can cause significant damage and
pose a major threat to coastal areas.
4. Organized Convection: These storms feature organized convection, which refers
to the clusters of thunderstorms and rain bands that spiral around the center of
the storm. This convection is a source of heavy rainfall.
5. Eye: Many mature tropical revolving storms have a calm, clear center called the
"eye," which is surrounded by the eyewall, where the most intense winds and
rain occur.
6. Cyclonic Rotation: These storms rotate counterclockwise in the Northern
Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere, which is a result of the
Coriolis effect.
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Although it is unlikely to sail into a storm with all navigational aids and communication
systems in place (shore based as well as ship based), shore personnel generally chalk
out an alternate passage plan to avoid such a storm in good time (in liaison with the
company and assigned route). However, in the event that the TRS is staring right in the
face, it is probably entirely up to the mercy of the sea or maybe, it is not intense enough,
and can be handled by the captain’s experience and knowledge. To avoid it altogether ,
the Officer should gather as much knowledge about the storm as practically possible.
This may include the following:
1. Keep at least 50 miles off from the center of the storm. If possible, it is best to be
at least 200 miles off to avoid any possibility of danger altogether
2. Make good speed. A vessel speeding in the vicinity of 20 knots, following a
course taking her away from the eye, can easily outstrip an approaching Tropical
Revolving Storm (TRS). TRS move rather slow. This ought to be done before the
wind increases to the point that her movement becomes restricted and speeding
or any maneuver becomes cumbersome.
3. As mentioned earlier, a swift fall in pressure indicates a brewing TRS. A vessel
should continue on her course unless the barometer reading falls down by 5 mb
or, by 3 mb in addition to high force wind.
4. If the vessel is trailing the storm (behind the storm), i.e., in the navigable
semicircle, there should be sufficient time and sea room to move away from the
eye
Northern Hemisphere
● In case that the wind is veering, the vessel is likely to be in the dangerous
semicircle. The vessel should proceed with maximum speed keeping the wind at
10° to 45°, on the starboard bow (depending on the speed). The vessel
should turn to starboard as the wind veers.
● In case that the wind direction is steady or backs, such that the vessel is in the
navigable semicircle, the wind must be brought well on the starboard quarter and
vessel should proceed with maximum speed. Turn to port as the wind veers.
Southern Hemisphere
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10° to 45°, on the port bow (depending on the speed). The ship should turn to
port as the wind backs.
● In case the wind direction is steady or backs, such that the vessel is in the
navigable semicircle, the wind should be brought well on the port quarter and the
vessel should proceed with maximum speed. Turn to starboard as the wind
backs.
If the vessel in in port and a Tropical Revolving Storm (TRS) approaches, it is best to
put out to sea. Staying put at the berth, especially with other vessels in proximity can be
highly dangerous. With the best mooring practices put in position, it very doubtful that
ship might be safe from the effects of the storm.
Mariner’s 1-2-3 rule, also known as the Danger Rule, is a guideline mariners should
follow to avoid an tropical storm or hurricane’s path. In order to help account for the
inherent errors in hurricane forecasting, a few guidelines should be used by the mariner
in order to limit the potential of a close encounter between ship and storm. 34 Knots
Rule 34 Knots is chosen as the critical value because as wind speed increases to this
speed, sea state development approaches critical levels resulting in decreasing ship
manoeuvrability. Also,the state of the sea outside of the radius of 34 KT winds can also
be significant enough as to limit course and speed options available to the mariner and
must also be considered when avoiding hurricanes. 1-2-3 Rule This is the single most
important aid in accounting for hurricane forecast tract errors (FTE). Understanding and
use of this rule should be mandatory for any vessel navigating near a hurricane. The
rule is derived from the latest 10-year average FTE associated with hurricanes in North
Atlantic. While this rule was derived in the North Atlantic, it is a good technique to use in
any tropical cyclone basin. The 1-2-3 rule establishes a minimum recommended
distance to maintain from a hurricane in the Atlantic, as it was derived from Atlantic
tropical cyclone date. Mariners in the Pacific can use this rule as a guide. Larger buffer
zones should be established in situations with higher forecast uncertainly, limited crew
experience, decreased vessel handling, or otherfactors set by the vessel master. The
rule does not account for sudden and rapid intensification of hurricanes that could result
in an outward expansion of the 34 KT wind field. Also,the rule does not account for the
typical expansion of the wind field as a system transitions from hurricane to extratropical
gale/ storm.
1 – 100 miles error radius for 24hrs forecast 2 – 200 miles error radius for 48hrs
forecast 3 – 300 miles error radius for 72hrs forecast
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1-2-3 Rule Explained above How to use 1-2-3 Rule onboard
1. Plot the current and forecast 24 Hour storm position and forecast
radius of 34 knots wind.
2. Using Compass extend the radius of the forecast 24 hours 34 knots
wind area by 100 nm.
3. Draw tangents relative to the direction of the storm from the 34 knots
radius of the current position of storm to the outermost radius at the
24 hour forecast position. The area between this is the Danger Area
and is to be avoided.
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4. Use the same procedure for 48 & 72 hours forecast position, however
to draw the outermost circle use 200 nm and 300 nm as radius
respectively.
Safety Sector Method for keeping vessel clear of TRS
The material given below is an extract from the book ‘HMSO’; Meteorology
for Mariners; and is meant to give guidelines for navigating in the vicinity of
T.R.S. In order to be on guard for an erratic movement in the path of a
tropical “revolving storm”, it is as well to plot a ‘danger area’ on the chart
as an added precaution. How is sector Method done? From the reported
position of the centre of the storm, lay off its track and the distance it is
expected to progress in 24 hours. From the reported centre, lay off two
lines 40o on either side of the track. With the centre of the storm as centre
and the estimated progress in 24 hours as radius, describe an arc to cut
the two lines on either side of the track. This will embrace the sector into
which the storm centre may be expected to move within the next 24 hours.
In taking avoiding action, provided there is sufficient sea room, the mariner
would do well to endeavor to get his ship outside this sector as early as
possible. If, after a few hours, the direction of the storm is reference to the
new estimated path of the storm and action taken to get out of the sector.
The most difficult situation is encountered when the ship finds herself at or
near the point of curvature of the storm. In such cases all efforts must be
made to avoid crossing ahead of the storm, and to stay clear of the area
into which the storm may turn after recurving. Tracks given in the sailing
directions for previous storms, are a good guide to the possible movement
of the storm, but reports must be taken at least every 6 hours. Example: A
ship in a position A at midnight steaming 180o T at 20 knots receives a
report of tropical storm to the south of her with centre at H1 moving north-
north-westwards at 6 knots. Sector 1 is drawn but no action is taken at this
time since if the storm continues on its course the ship will pass more than
200 nautical mile away from the centre. Six hours later, when the ship is at
B, the storm is reported to be centered at H2 and moving northwards at 10
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knots.
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Use of Safety Sector for keeping a ship clear of a Tropical Storm (North
Hemisphere)Sector 2 is drawn and it is apparent that if the storm continues on this path,
the closest approach could be 150 nautical mile or considerably less. Speed is therefore
reduced to 15 knots and the plot maintained. At 1200, with ship at C, the storm is
reported at H3 now moving north-north-eastwards and having accelerated to 12 knots.
Sector 3 is drawn and from the plot it is now apparent that if the ship continues on her
southerly course she will steam into dangerous proximity to the storm. Heaving to at this
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stage will only allow the storm to draw closer to the ship; therefore a bold alteration of
course to 250oT is made and speed increased to 20 knots to clear thestorm field. At
1800 with ship at D, the storm is reported at H4 moving north-eastwards at 15 knots
and Sector 4 is drawn. Even if the path of the storm should change to a northerly
direction the closest approach now is not likely to be less than 200 nautical miles. To
ensure an adequate margin of safety the ship maintains a course of 250oT until midnight
and then reverts to her original course of 180o T or an amended southerly course to
make her destination. It will be seen from the diagram that the safety sector is merely a
rule-of-thumb method of keeping clear of the storm field. Its effectiveness depends on
the reception of radio reports giving the position of the storm centre and its progress,
and its accuracy on the assumption that the storm will not alter course more than
40o without being detected. If no reports of the position and progress of the storm centre
are received, it will be impossible to plot a sector and the mariner must be guided by his
own observations and those received from other ships in the vicinity, and by careful
attention to the ‘Practical Rules for Avoiding Tropical Storms’.
Assessment Tasks
References
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