Country Name

GDP per capita

Nominal GDP (current Real GDP (constant
Year (constant 2015
US$) 2015 US$)
US$)

2000 96.076.539.926 140.533.304.239 34.890

2001 89.793.790.670 139.028.385.431 33.598
2002 92.538.372.870 144.482.970.560 34.599
2003 97.646.401.096 151.054.425.109 36.710
2004 115.033.593.101 166.069.208.808 39.857
2005 127.807.848.728 178.302.402.124 41.798
2006 148.627.286.361 194.361.682.396 44.159
2007 180.941.701.358 211.896.059.498 46.179
2008 193.617.323.539 215.844.707.508 44.602
2009 194.150.283.772 216.120.888.113 43.332
2010 239.807.980.591 247.501.100.140 48.752
2011 279.356.499.090 262.883.130.580 50.714
2012 295.092.888.077 274.543.305.512 51.679
2013 307.576.360.585 287.769.788.882 53.299
2014 314.863.580.758 299.095.084.829 54.682
2015 307.998.545.269 307.998.545.269 55.646
2016 319.053.943.915 319.051.515.647 56.899
2017 343.257.164.582 333.450.075.464 59.415
2018 376.892.697.588 345.177.895.369 61.216
2019 376.901.649.222 349.820.740.822 61.334
2020 349.488.382.611 336.283.381.521 59.144
2021 434.111.559.283 368.871.820.050 67.639
2022 498.474.540.988 383.029.403.742 67.949
2023 501.427.500.080 387.147.091.448 65.422
Source World Bank Data World Bank Data World Bank Data

CHART 3. THE CHANGE IN THE INFLATION RATE OF SINGAP

00,015

00,012

00,010
 00,010

00,007
00,007 00,007

00,005 00,005

00,003
%
00,002
00,002
00,001 00,001 00,001
00,001 00,000
00,000 00,000
-00,001
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

-00,005 -00,006

-00,010

CPI Inflation Rate (%

4.Detailed inflation analysis

Overall:
The inflation rate in Singapore has fluctuated significantly over the years, reflecting va
declines due to the Dot-Com Bubble and the global recession, with GDP inflation fallin
inflation increased as demand for exports and domestic consumption rose, while in co
recovery, inflation remained controlled despite rising living costs, largely due to gover
deflation initially in 2020, followed by a surge in inflation in 2021–2022 due to supply c

The difference between the GDP deflator and CPI inflation rates can be explained by th
goods and services produced within the economy, including exports, which are highly
prices of goods and services consumed domestically by households, which are more af
during the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis, GDP inflation fell sharply due to reduced export
goods. Similarly, in 2021–2022, despite a surge in CPI inflation driven by supply chain i

Detailed analysis of specific periods, which clearly illustrates how various

deflator and CPI inflation:

a. 2000–2003: Dot-Com Bubble & Global recession

- Inflation trend:
+ GDP inflation rate: Declined sharply in 2001 (-5.53%) due to economic downtu
+ CPI inflation rate: Remained relatively stable but dipped into mild deflation in
 + CPI inflation rate: Remained relatively stable but dipped into mild deflation in

- Historical context:
+ The 2001 Dot-Com Bubble Burst led to a global economic slowdown, reducing
+ Singapore’s highly open economy suffered from declining export demand, lea
+ Government response: Fiscal stimulus through infrastructure spending and ta
Example: Singapore’s electronics manufacturing sector, a major exporter, saw a

- Causes of the GDP-CPI inflation gap:

+ GDP Deflator: Strongly influenced by export demand and investment activity
GDP deflator inflation.
+ CPI inflation rate: More dependent on domestic consumer spending
helped keep CPI relatively stable despite economic downturns.

b. 2004–2008: Strong economic growth & rising inflation

- Inflation trend:
+ GDP deflator: Increased significantly in 2004 (+7.16%) and continued rising in
+ CPI inflation rate: Increased steadily but at a slower pace.

- Historical context:
+ The global economic recovery after the early 2000s slowdown boosted deman
+ Singapore experienced an Rapid growth in sectors like finance, trade, and rea
+ Government policies encouraged foreign investment, leading to an increase in
+ Government intervention, such as subsidies on public transport and healthca
+ Rising commodity prices globally, particularly in oil and food, contributed to in

- Causes of the GDP-CPI inflation gap:

+ GDP deflator: Reflected rising production costs and investment
+ CPI inflation: Remained moderate because price controls on essential goods a
+ Example: The real estate boom led to rising property prices, increasing
heavily subsidized.

c. 2008–2009: Global Financial Crisis (GFC) & Deflationary shock

- Inflation trend:
+ GDP Inflation Rate: Declined sharply in 2008–2009.
+ CPI Inflation Rate: Dropped but remained slightly positive.

- Historical context:
+ The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) led to a collapse in trade, investment, a
+ Falling commodity prices and weaker demand led to lower production costs,
+ The government introduced stimulus packages worth S$20.5 billion
+ CPI inflation remained positive due to continued demand for essential goods
 + The government introduced stimulus packages worth S$20.5 billion
+ CPI inflation remained positive due to continued demand for essential goods

- Causes of the GDP-CPI inflation gap:

+ GDP deflator: Fell sharply as exports declined, particularly in industries like
+ CPI inflation: Was less affected because daily household expenses (food, tran
+ Example: The Singapore government implemented S$20.5 billion in stimulus
deep deflation.

d. 2010–2014: Post-crisis recovery & Controlled inflation

- Inflation trend:
+ GDP inflation rate: Recovered in 2010 but fluctuated in later years.
+ CPI inflation rate: Increased steadily due to higher costs of living.

- Historical context:
+ Strong economic recovery following government stimulus and increased glob
+ Rising wages and increasing property prices led to higher living costs
+ GDP deflator fluctuated due to sector-specific growth variations
.
- Causes of the GDP-CPI inflation gap:
+ GDP Deflator: Impacted by shifts in trade and investment patterns
+ CPI indlation: More stable as it reflected the steady increase in rent, food pri
+ Example: The tightening of foreign labor policies in 2011 led to rising

e. 2015–2019: Low inflation & Economic stability

- Inflation trend:
+ GDP inflation rate: Declined, with some deflationary periods.
+ CPI inflation rate: Remained low,reflecting subdued consumer price pressures

- Historical context:
+ Trade tensions between the US and China in 2018 led to economic uncertaint
+ The government introduced cooling measures in the property sector
+ Technological advancements and efficiency gains lowered business costs, con
+ A strong Singapore dollar reduced import prices, keeping CPI inflation low.

- Causes of the GDP-CPI inflation gap:

+ GDP deflator: Declined due to reduced trade demand and manufacturing out
+ CPI inflation: Stayed stable, mainly driven by rising healthcare costs and mod
+ Example: The government’s Smart Nation Initiative promoted automation in

f. 2020–2023: COVID-19 & Post-pandemic inflation surge

- Inflation trend:
f. 2020–2023: COVID-19 & Post-pandemic inflation surge
- Inflation trend:
+ GDP inflation rate:Collapsed in 2020 due to the economic contraction but sur
+ CPI inflation rate: Increased sharply and peaked at 6.12% in 2022
- Historical context:
+ 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic led to economic shutdowns, business closures,
+ 2021–2022: Post-pandemic recovery, massive government stimulus (e.g., Job
surge.
+ 2023: Tight monetary policies by MAS, stabilizing global markets, and lower ex
to domestic cost pressures.
- Causes of the GDP-CPI inflation gap:
+ GDP deflator: Dropped significantly in 2020 due to reduced global trade and b
2023 as external demand weakened.
+ CPI inflation: Increased sharply from 2021 due to rising costs in energy, food,
+ Example:
2022: The Ukraine war worsened supply chain disruptions, raising transpo
2023: Export slowdown reduced GDP Inflation, but CPI Inflation remained
 Singapore

GDP deflator GDP Deflator GDP Inflation CPI Inflation

CPI (2010 = 100)
(2015=100) (2010=100) Rate (%) Rate (%)

68,3657 70,5589 85,1991

64,5867 66,6586 86,0487 -5,5276 0,9972
64,0479 66,1026 85,7117 -0,8341 -0,3917
64,6432 66,7170 86,1470 0,9294 0,5079
69,2685 71,4906 87,5794 7,1551 1,6627
71,6804 73,9799 87,9517 3,4820 0,4251
76,4694 78,9226 88,7986 6,6811 0,9629
85,3917 88,1311 90,6677 11,6678 2,1049
89,7021 92,5798 96,6770 5,0478 6,6278
89,8341 92,7160 97,2539 0,1471 0,5967
96,8917 100,0000 100,0000 7,8562 2,8237
106,2664 109,6755 105,2478 9,6755 5,2478
107,4850 110,9332 110,0635 1,1467 4,5756
106,8828 110,3116 112,6595 -0,5603 2,3586
105,2721 108,6492 113,8144 -1,5070 1,0251
100,0000 103,2080 113,2196 -5,0080 -0,5226
100,0008 103,2088 112,6170 0,0008 -0,5323
102,9411 106,2435 113,2659 2,9403 0,5763
109,1880 112,6907 113,7627 6,0684 0,4386
107,7414 111,1977 114,4058 -1,3249 0,5653
103,9267 107,2608 114,1977 -3,5405 -0,1819
117,6863 121,4617 116,8298 13,2397 2,3049
130,1400 134,3150 123,9810 10,5821 6,1211
129,5186 133,6736 129,9587 -0,4775 4,8215
Caculated Caculated World Bank Data Caculated Caculated

TION RATE OF SINGAPORE ECONOMY CALCULATE D BY GDP DEFLATOR INDEX AND CPI
INDEX
FROM 2000 TO 2023

00,010
 00,010

00,008
00,007
00,006
00,005 00,005
00,005

00,003 00,003
00,002
00,001 00,001
00,001 00,001 00,000 00,001
00,000 00,000 00,000
-00,001 -00,001 -00,001
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-00,002 2019
-00,001

-00,004
-00,005

YEAR

CPI Inflation Rate (%) GDP Inflation Rate (%)

er the years, reflecting various global and domestic factors. From 2000 to 2003, inflation was characterize
, with GDP inflation falling particularly steeply. During periods of economic growth, such as from 2004 to 2
umption rose, while in contrast, the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis caused a brief deflationary period.
osts, largely due to government interventions like subsidies. In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic caus
2022 due to supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, and other global factors.

tes can be explained by their underlying calculations. The GDP deflator reflects the overall change in price
exports, which are highly sensitive to global demand. In contrast, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) focuses o
eholds, which are more affected by factors like energy, food, housing costs, and government policies. For i
ply due to reduced export demand, but CPI inflation remained slightly positive due to stable demand for e
n driven by supply chain issues, GDP inflation was less affected due to weaker external demand.

ustrates how various economic events and policy measures have influenced

due to economic downturn, followed by a slight decrease in 2002 (-0.83%), before stabilizing
ped into mild deflation in 2002 (-0.39%).
ped into mild deflation in 2002 (-0.39%).

omic slowdown, reducing demand for technology exports, a key + sector for Singapore.
ining export demand, leading to lower production costs and deflationary pressure.
tructure spending and tax cuts helped mitigate the downturn.
r, a major exporter, saw a demand slump, contributing to GDP deflator declines.

d and investment activity. Since exports were a major growth driver, falling global demand led to a sharp d

sumer spending, which was supported by government measures such as tax rebates and utility rebates
wnturns.

) and continued rising in later years, reflecting strong economic expansion.

lowdown boosted demand for exports, increasing prices in the economy.

finance, trade, and real estate fueled domestic consumption and business activity.
, leading to an increase in asset prices.
ic transport and healthcare, helped keep consumer prices controlled, preventing a sharp CPI spike.
, contributed to inflation.

nvestment-driven expansion, which were directly impacted by higher commodity and raw material price
trols on essential goods and government subsidies helped cushion cost-of-living increases
, increasing GDP inflation. However, CPI inflation remained controlled since public housing (HDB f

ry shock

se in trade, investment, and credit availability, causing deflation in GDP prices.

lower production costs, contributing to GDP deflation.
h S$20.5 billion, including job support schemes and corporate tax cuts.
mand for essential goods and services, with the government stabilizing consumer prices through subsidies
 h S$20.5 billion, including job support schemes and corporate tax cuts.
mand for essential goods and services, with the government stabilizing consumer prices through subsidies

ularly in industries like semiconductors, oil refining, and shipping.

hold expenses (food, transport, healthcare) were relatively stable.
$20.5 billion in stimulus measures to support businesses and prevent mass layoffs, keeping CPI from fallin

in later years.
osts of living.

mulus and increased global trade.

gher living costs, pushing CPI inflation upwards.
h variations, particularly in finance and construction

ment patterns, resulting in volatility.

increase in rent, food prices, and service costs.
led to rising wages in construction and services, increasing CPI inflation more than GDP inflation.

periods.
consumer price pressures.

d to economic uncertainties, affecting Singapore’s exports.

property sector, stabilizing inflation.
wered business costs, contributing to lower GDP deflator values.
eping CPI inflation low.

d and manufacturing output.

ealthcare costs and modest wage increases.
promoted automation in logistics and finance, reducing business costs and keeping GDP inflation low.
 omic contraction but surged in 2021–2022,then plunged to -0.48% in 2023, reflecting economic shifts.
.12% in 2022, before easing to 4.82% in 2023, showing persistent consumer price pressures.

downs, business closures, and weak global demand, causing deflationary pressures.
nment stimulus (e.g., Job Support Scheme), supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukrain

bal markets, and lower export demand caused GDP Inflation to drop sharply, while CPI Inflation remained

educed global trade and business closures but rebounded in 2021–2022 as production costs surged. It fel

ng costs in energy, food, and housing, staying high even as GDP Inflation declined.

sruptions, raising transport and food costs, pushing CPI Inflation higher.
ut CPI Inflation remained elevated as housing and rental costs surged post-pandemic.
 1.
- Calculate the GDP deflator index of Singapore
GDP
Unemployment,
Year-over-year
total (% of total
(YoY) growth rate Example:
labor force)
GDP
3,7
-1,0709 3,76
3,9234 5,65 - Convert it to a 2010 based year:
4,5483 5,93
9,9400 5,84
GDP
7,3663 5,59
9,0068 4,48
9,0215 3,9 Example:
1,8635 3,96
0,1280 5,86 GDP
14,5197 4,12
6,2149 3,89
4,4355 3,72 - Calculate the inflation according to this GDP def
4,8176 3,86
3,9355 3,74
GDP
2,9768 3,79
3,5886 4,08 Example:
4,5129 4,2
3,5171 3,613 GDP
1,3451 3,1
-3,8698 4,1
9,6908 4,64 2. Calculate the inflation rate of this economy ac
3,8381 3,591
1,0750 3,444
Caculated World Bank Data 𝐶𝑃𝐼

Example:
OR INDEX AND CPI
𝐶𝑃𝐼

5. Compute the year

00,013

YoY
00,011
Example:
 00,011
Example:

00,006
YoY
00,005

00,002

00,000 00,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 00,020

00,004

00,015

00,010

% 00,005

00,000

, inflation was characterized by sharp -00,005

owth, such as from 2004 to 2008,
a brief deflationary period. After the
e COVID-19 pandemic caused sharp
al factors.
5. Singapore's economic growth and policy r
s the overall change in prices for all Overall:
r Price Index (CPI) focuses on the Singapore’s economic growth has been characteriz
d government policies. For instance, stability. Each trend aligns with effective governanc
due to stable demand for essential growth in 2010 after the Global Financial Crisis and
external demand. 2020 (-3.9%) were mitigated through fiscal stimulus
2019, moderate annual GDP growth of 2.9% highlig
ced the gap between GDP to volatility management, crisis mitigation, and stru

a. Volatile growth peaks

Statistically, Singapore experienced
2010 (14.5%)
shrank marginally in 2009 (
efore stabilizing in 2003.. 2021 (9.7%)

Public policy response to Volatility:

- 2008
 Public policy response to Volatility:
- 2008
ngapore.

- 2020
obal demand led to a sharp decline in

ebates and utility rebates. This

Outcomes:
The GDP surged to S$247 billion in 2010, reco
By 2021, GDP reached S$368 billion, reflectin

b. Periods of Decline
Economic contractions occurred during:
2009 (
2020 (
.
Public policy response during Declines
- 2009 Financial Crisis Response:
ting a sharp CPI spike.

- 2020 COVID
odity and raw material prices.
ving increases.
Outcomes:
public housing (HDB flats) was
- The 2009 decline was shallow, with a quick
- The pandemic recession was deeper, but re
monetary policies.

c. Moderate Growth Stability (2011

GDP grew steadily
Average growth rate: 2.9% annually, indicating a
Unemployment remained low

Public policy focus during Moderate Growth

- Productivity and Innovation
boosting GDP per worker
mer prices through subsidies. - Sectoral Diversification
 boosting GDP per worker
mer prices through subsidies. - Sectoral Diversification
- Green Growth
by 2019 (up from 1% in 2011).

Outcomes:
yoffs, keeping CPI from falling into - A steady rise in GDP and productivity under
- Singapore maintained its competitiveness, r
Inde

Chart 6.1
00,015

00,010

00,005
%

more than GDP inflation. 00,000

-00,005

GDP Inflation Rate (%)

-00,010

GDP inflation rate

Key observations:
- During periods of high GDP inflation (e.g., 2007
unemployment rates tend to decline, possibly indicat
economy with high demand for labor.
- Conversely, negative or low GDP inflation (e.g., 2001
corresponds with modest increases in unemploymen
economic performance.
Overall trend:
ping GDP inflation low. - Inverse relationship: Low or negative GDP inflation o
unemployment, as seen during economic downturns
2020.
- Aligns with Phillips Curve:
 2020.
- Aligns with Phillips Curve:
flecting economic shifts. indicating a trade
ice pressures. inflation typically correlates with lower unemployme
high inflation can destabilize the economy.

Ukraine war led to an inflation

CPI Inflation remained high due

oduction costs surged. It fell again in Comparative analysis (GDP Inflation vs. CPI Inflation) :
+ GDP inflation
often coincide with rising unemployment (e.g., 2001
+ CPI inflation
unrelated to labor market conditions (e.g., import pric
ndemic.
Conclusion
+ From 2001 to 2023,
+ The CPI inflation rate
affect job markets.
+ Overall, GDP inflation provides a better indicator of
volatility.
Calculate the GDP deflator index of Singapore economy from 2000 to 2023 (2015
t GDP tNorminal
GDP 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015 base) =
GDP tReal (2015

Example:
GDP 2000
GDP 2000
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015 base) =
Norminal
GDP Real (2015
2000

Convert it to a 2010 based year:

t GDP t𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015

GDP 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2010 base) =
GDP 2010
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015

Example:
2000 GDP 2000
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015
GDP 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2010 base) =
GDP 2010
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015

Calculate the inflation according to this GDP deflator (2010

t GDP t𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
GDP inflation rate (2010 base) =
GDP

Example:
GDP
GDP inflation rate 2001 (2010 base) =

Calculate the inflation rate of this economy according to the CPI:

CPIt − CPI
𝐶𝑃𝐼 inflation rate t (2010 base) =
CPI t−1

Example:
CPI2001
𝐶𝑃𝐼 inflation rate 2001 (2010 base) =

Compute the year-over-year (YoY) growth rate of real GDP:

GDP tReal − GDP t−1
YoY Growth Ratet = t 1
Real
×
GDP Real−

Example:
 GDP Real
Example:
2001 GDP 2001
Real − GDP
YoY Growth Rate =
GDP 2000
Real

Chart 5. Year-over-year (YoY) growth rate of Singapore econom

00,020

00,015

00,010 00,010
00,009 00,009
00,007

00,005 00,005
00,004

00,000
-00,001
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-00,005

Singapore's economic growth and policy responses

Overall:
Singapore’s economic growth has been characterized by three distinct trends:
stability. Each trend aligns with effective governance and strategic policies. The nation achieved significa
growth in 2010 after the Global Financial Crisis and 9.7% in 2021 following the COVID
2020 (-3.9%) were mitigated through fiscal stimulus, wage subsidies, and infrastructure investments, en
2019, moderate annual GDP growth of 2.9% highlighted a transition to a mature, productivity
to volatility management, crisis mitigation, and structural transformation has cemented its reputation fo

a. Volatile growth peaks

Statistically, Singapore experienced two significant
2010 (14.5%): Marked the highest growth rate in decades. This was a rebound after the
shrank marginally in 2009 (-0.1%).
2021 (9.7%): Reflected recovery following the economic contraction of 2020 (

Public policy response to Volatility:

- 2008–2010 Global financial Crisis Recovery
Public policy response to Volatility:
- 2008–2010 Global financial Crisis Recovery
+ Fiscal Stimulus: S$20.5 billion (~6% of GDP) was allocated was allocated in 2009 for infras
+ Monetary Policy: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adjusted the exchange rate
drive the 2010 recovery.
+ Unemployment Management: The Jobs Credit Scheme subsidized up to 12% of wages, ke
improving to 4.12% in 2010 (World Bank
- 2020–2021 Pandemic Recovery:
+ Massive Stimulus: Over S$100 billion
pandemic responses globally.
+ Job Support Scheme (JSS): Covered up
+ Digital Economy Expansion: Policies encouraged businesses to digitalize, with
adopting at least one digital solution by 2021.
Outcomes:
The GDP surged to S$247 billion in 2010, recovering from a contraction in 2009.
By 2021, GDP reached S$368 billion, reflecting resilience and adaptability to global challenges.

b. Periods of Decline
Economic contractions occurred during:
2009 (-0.1%): A slight contraction due to declining exports during the Global Financial Crisis.
2020 (-3.9%): A deeper contraction during the COVID
.
Public policy response during Declines
- 2009 Financial Crisis Response:
+ Infrastructure Investments drove recovery, especially in the construction sector.
+ Temporary Cash Grants directly supported to over
- 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic Response:
+ Healthcare Spending: Increased healthcare GDP contribution to handle pandemic needs.
+ Direct household support, including cash payouts, sustained domestic consumption.
Outcomes:
- The 2009 decline was shallow, with a quick rebound to
- The pandemic recession was deeper, but recovery was swift, with 9.7% growth in 2021, showing
monetary policies.

c. Moderate Growth Stability (2011–2019)

GDP grew steadily from S$247 billion (2011) to S$376 billion (2019).
Average growth rate: 2.9% annually, indicating a transition to a mature economy.
Unemployment remained low, ranging from 3.72% in 2012 to 3.1% in 2019 (

Public policy focus during Moderate Growth

- Productivity and Innovation: The Productivity and Innovation Credit (PIC
boosting GDP per worker by 25% between 2011 and 2019
- Sectoral Diversification: Growth in services, such as finance, healthcare, and tourism, reduced re
 boosting GDP per worker by 25% between 2011 and 2019
- Sectoral Diversification: Growth in services, such as finance, healthcare, and tourism, reduced re
- Green Growth: Policies under the Green Plan 2030 began yielding results, with renewable energ
by 2019 (up from 1% in 2011).

Outcomes:
- A steady rise in GDP and productivity underscored the success of policies targeting structural tra
- Singapore maintained its competitiveness, ranking consistently in the top 5 of the World Econom
Index.

Chart 6.1 GDP Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate

(2001-2023)

Year
GDP Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)

flation rate & Unemployment rate :

servations:
During periods of high GDP inflation (e.g., 2007–2008 and 2021),
unemployment rates tend to decline, possibly indicating a strong
economy with high demand for labor.
Conversely, negative or low GDP inflation (e.g., 2001, 2015, 2020)
corresponds with modest increases in unemployment, reflecting weaker
economic performance.

Inverse relationship: Low or negative GDP inflation often leads to higher

unemployment, as seen during economic downturns like 2001

Aligns with Phillips Curve: This relationship aligns with the Phillips Curve,
 Aligns with Phillips Curve: This relationship aligns with the Phillips Curve,
ndicating a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. High
nflation typically correlates with lower unemployment, but sustained
high inflation can destabilize the economy.

rative analysis (GDP Inflation vs. CPI Inflation) :

GDP inflation is a broader measure of economic activity and shows a stronger relationship with unemplo
ften coincide with rising unemployment (e.g., 2001
CPI inflation, focused on consumer prices, shows a weaker and less predictable relationship with unempl
nrelated to labor market conditions (e.g., import prices or commodity shocks).

From 2001 to 2023, GDP inflation rate exhibits a more direct inverse relationship with unemployment, p
CPI inflation rate shows a weaker and less consistent correlation with unemployment, likely because
ffect job markets.
Overall, GDP inflation provides a better indicator of labor market dynamics in Singapore compared to CPI
olatility.
Singapore economy from 2000 to 2023 (2015 base)
Norminal
× 100
2015 base)

2000
Norminal 96.076.539.926
× 100 = × 100 ≈ 68,3657
2015 base) 140.533.304.239

(2015 base)
× 100
(2015 base)

𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 (2015 base) 68,3657

× 100 = × 100 ≈ 70,5589
(2015 base) 96,8917
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟

his GDP deflator (2010 base):

t t−1
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 − GDP 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
× 100 %
GDP t−1 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟

GDP 2001 2000

𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 − GDP 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 66,6586−70,5589
× 100 % = × 100% ≈ -5,5276
GDP 2000 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
70,5589

economy according to the CPI:

CPI t−1
× 100 %
CPI t−1

CPI2001 − CPI 2000 86,0487 −85,1991

2000 × 100 %= × 100% ≈ 0,9972 %
CPI 85,1991

growth rate of real GDP:

t−1
× 100 %
 GDP 2000
Real 139.028.385.431 − 140.533.304.239
2000 × 100 %= × 100% ≈
140.533.304.239

-year (YoY) growth rate of Singapore economy (2001-2023)

00,015

00,009 00,009

00,006
00,004 00,005 00,005
00,004 00,004 00,004
00,003
00,002
00,001
00,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-00,004

Year

Year-over-year (YoY) growth rate

and policy responses

n characterized by three distinct trends: volatile growth peaks, periods of decline, and
ve governance and strategic policies. The nation achieved significant rebounds, including 14.5% GDP
ial Crisis and 9.7% in 2021 following the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic contractions in 2009
scal stimulus, wage subsidies, and infrastructure investments, ensuring rapid recovery. Be
2.9% highlighted a transition to a mature, productivity-driven economy. Singapore’s integrat
ion, and structural transformation has cemented its reputation for stability and glob

o significant growth surges:

st growth rate in decades. This was a rebound after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis

following the economic contraction of 2020 (-3.9%) due to the COVID-19 pandemic

sis Recovery:
 sis Recovery:
billion (~6% of GDP) was allocated was allocated in 2009 for infrastructure projects and wage subsidies.
onetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adjusted the exchange rate band to support exports, which helped

: The Jobs Credit Scheme subsidized up to 12% of wages, keeping unemployment

World Bank data).

S$100 billion (~20% of GDP) was allocated across four budgets, making it one of the most extensive

: Covered up to 75% of wages for affected sectors, reducing unemployment

: Policies encouraged businesses to digitalize, with 90% of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
al solution by 2021.

in 2010, recovering from a contraction in 2009.

ion, reflecting resilience and adaptability to global challenges.

n due to declining exports during the Global Financial Crisis.

on during the COVID-19 pandemic due to lockdowns, travel restrictions, and global trade disruptions.

drove recovery, especially in the construction sector.

irectly supported to over 90,000 businesses, preventing closures.

creased healthcare GDP contribution to handle pandemic needs.

, including cash payouts, sustained domestic consumption.

with a quick rebound to 14.5% growth in 2010.

eeper, but recovery was swift, with 9.7% growth in 2021, showing the effectiveness of aggressive

2019)
2011) to S$376 billion (2019).
dicating a transition to a mature economy.
3.72% in 2012 to 3.1% in 2019 (World Bank data).

Productivity and Innovation Credit (PIC) scheme benefited over 500,000 businesses from
between 2011 and 2019.(World Bank data)..
h in services, such as finance, healthcare, and tourism, reduced reliance on trade and manufacturing.
 between 2011 and 2019.(World Bank data)..
h in services, such as finance, healthcare, and tourism, reduced reliance on trade and manufacturing.
Green Plan 2030 began yielding results, with renewable energy accounting for 4% of total energy use

ctivity underscored the success of policies targeting structural transformation.

etitiveness, ranking consistently in the top 5 of the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness

nd Unemployment Rate Chart 6.2 CPI Inflation Rate and Unemployment Ra

(2001-2023)
00,007

00,006

00,005

00,004
%

00,003

00,002

00,001

00,000

-00,001
Year

ent, total (% of total labor force) CPI Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment, total (% of total labor

CPI inflation rate & Unemployment rate :

Key observations:
–2008 and 2021), - The CPI inflation rate exhibits relatively smoother trends co
ssibly indicating a strong GDP inflation but still highlights economic shocks, such as the
2008 and 2021.
on (e.g., 2001, 2015, 2020) - The unemployment rate does not always follow the same p
employment, reflecting weaker CPI inflation. For instance:
+ In 2008, despite a surge in CPI inflation, unemployme
remained steady.
DP inflation often leads to higher + In 2021, an increase in CPI inflation coincided with a
c downturns like 2001-2002 and in unemployment, suggesting recovery post
Overall trend:
hip aligns with the Phillips Curve, - Weaker relationship: The connection between CPI inflation
 Overall trend:
hip aligns with the Phillips Curve, - Weaker relationship: The connection between CPI inflation
nd unemployment. High unemployment is less consistent. .
nemployment, but sustained - External influences: CPI inflation is affected by global supply
issues and commodity prices, making it less reflective of dom
labor market conditions.
- Broader indicators: This suggests that CPI should be analyze
alongside other economic indicators (like GDP growth and wa
growth) for a comprehensive view of the economy.

conomic activity and shows a stronger relationship with unemployment trends. Periods of negative GDP
(e.g., 2001–2002, 2020).
es, shows a weaker and less predictable relationship with unemployment, as it may be influenced by
., import prices or commodity shocks).

exhibits a more direct inverse relationship with unemployment, particularly during economic shocks and r
nd less consistent correlation with unemployment, likely because it reflects price changes that do not dire

indicator of labor market dynamics in Singapore compared to CPI inflation, particu

-5,5276 %

%
 ≈ −1,0709 %

2023)

00,010

00,004

00,001

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

-00,004

of decline, and moderate growth

bounds, including 14.5% GDP
contractions in 2009 (-0.1%) and
rapid recovery. Between 2011 and
. Singapore’s integrated approach
ility and global competitiveness.

bal Financial Crisis, where GDP

9 pandemic.
re projects and wage subsidies.
to support exports, which helped

unemployment at 5.86% in 2009,

it one of the most extensive

medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)

, and global trade disruptions.

fectiveness of aggressive fiscal and

000 businesses from 2011 to 2017,

on trade and manufacturing.

 on trade and manufacturing.
unting for 4% of total energy use

um’s Global Competitiveness

Rate and Unemployment Rate

2023)

Year

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)

ent rate :

bits relatively smoother trends compared to

ghts economic shocks, such as the spike in

does not always follow the same pattern as

surge in CPI inflation, unemployment

e in CPI inflation coincided with a decrease

uggesting recovery post-pandemic.

connection between CPI inflation and

connection between CPI inflation and

flation is affected by global supply chain

es, making it less reflective of domestic

uggests that CPI should be analyzed

ndicators (like GDP growth and wage
ve view of the economy.

trends. Periods of negative GDP inflation

nt, as it may be influenced by factors

arly during economic shocks and recoveries.

ects price changes that do not directly

on, particularly during periods of economic

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FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG CC BY-4.0
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Indicator Name
GDP (current US$)
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
Consumer price index (2010 = 100)
GDP deflator (base year varies by country)
GDP deflator: linked series (base year varies by country)
GDP (constant 2015 US$)
Long definition
GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxe
Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consu
Consumer price index reflects changes in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services th
The GDP implicit deflator is the ratio of GDP in current local currency to GDP in constant local currency. The base year var
The GDP implicit deflator is calculated as the ratio of GDP in current local currency to GDP in constant local currency. This
GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxe
Source
World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.
International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.
World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
World Bank staff estimates based on World Bank national accounts data archives, OECD National Accounts, and the IMF W
World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
Topic
Economic Policy & Debt: National accounts: US$ at current prices: Aggregate indicators
Financial Sector: Exchange rates & prices
Financial Sector: Exchange rates & prices
Financial Sector: Exchange rates & prices
Financial Sector: Exchange rates & prices
Economic Policy & Debt: National accounts: US$ at constant 2015 prices: Aggregate indicators
Periodicity
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Base Period

2010
varies by country

2015
Aggregation method
Gap-filled total
Median

Gap-filled total
Statistical concept and methodology
Gross domestic product (GDP) represents the sum of value added by all its producers. Value added is the value of the gro

Consumer price indexes are constructed explicitly, using surveys of the cost of a defined basket of consumer goods and se
Inflation is measured by the rate of increase in a price index, but actual price change can be negative. The index used dep
The accuracy of national accounts estimates and their comparability across countries depend on timely revisions to data o
Gross domestic product (GDP) represents the sum of value added by all its producers. Value added is the value of the gros
 Development relevance
f value added by all its producers. Value added is the value of the gross output of producers less the value of intermediate goods and

A general and continuing increase in an economy’s price level is called inflation. The increase in the average prices of good
ce index, but actual price change can be negative. The index used depends on the prices being examined. The GDP deflator reflects pr
ir comparability across countries depend on timely revisions to data on GDP and its components. The frequency of revisions to GDP d
An economy's growth is measured by the change in the volume of its output or in the real incomes of its residents. The 20
 Limitations and exceptions
Gross domestic product (GDP), though widely tracked, may not always be the most relevant summary of aggregated econ

Consumer price indexes should be interpreted with caution. The definition of a household, the basket of goods, and the g
d depends on the prices being examined. The GDP deflator reflects price changes for total GDP. The most general measure of the over
data on GDP and its components. The frequency of revisions to GDP data varies: some countries revise numbers monthly, others quart
Each industry's contribution to growth in the economy's output is measured by growth in the industry's value added. In pr
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