Chapter 8

Confidence Interval
Estimation

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 8
Statistical
Intervals for a
Single Sample
CHAPTER OUTLINE
8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean 8-3 Confidence Interval on σ2 & σ of
of a Normal distribution, σ2 Known a Normal Distribution
8-1.1 Development of the
Confidence Interval & Its
Properties
8-1.2 Choice of Sample Size
8-1.3 1-Sided Confidence Bounds
8-1.4 Large-Sample Confidence
Interval for μ
8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal distribution, σ2 Unknown
8-2.1 t Distribution
8-2.2 Confidence Interval on μ

Chapter 8 Title and Outline 2

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 Learning Objectives for Chapter 8
After careful study of this chapter, you should be able to do
the following:
1. Construct confidence intervals on the mean of a normal distribution,
using normal distribution or t distribution method.
2. Construct confidence intervals on variance and standard deviation
of normal distribution.
3. Construct confidence intervals on a population proportion.
4. Constructing an approximate confidence interval on a parameter.
5. Prediction intervals for a future observation.
6. Tolerance interval for a normal population.

Chapter 8 Learning Objectives 3

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction to Estimation
Two forms of estimation
• Point estimation ≡ most likely value of
parameter (e.g., x-bar is point estimator of µ)
• Interval estimation ≡ range of values with
known likelihood of capturing the parameter, i.e.,
a confidence interval (CI)

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 Point and Interval Estimates

• A point estimate is a single number,

• a confidence interval provides additional
information about the variability of the
estimate
Lower Upper
Confidence Confidence
Point Estimate
Limit Limit
Width of
confidence interval

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 8-1.1 Confidence Interval and its Properties

A confidence interval estimate for  is an interval of the form

l ≤  ≤ u,

where the end-points l and u are computed from the sample

data.

There is a probability of 1  α of selecting a sample for which

the CI will contain the true value of .

The endpoints or bounds l and u are called lower- and upper-

confidence limits ,and 1  α is called the confidence
coefficient.

Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 6

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 Reasoning Behind a 95% CI
• The next slide demonstrates how CIs are
based on sampling distributions
• If we take multiple samples from the
sample population, each sample will
derive a different 95% CI
• 95% of the CIs will capture μ & 5% will not

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 3/14/2024
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Confidence Interval on the Mean, Variance Known

If X is the sample mean of a random sample of

size n from a normal population with known
variance 2, a 100(1  α)% CI on  is given by

x  z / 2 / n    x  z / 2/ n (8-1)

where zα/2 is the upper 100α/2 percentage point of

the standard normal distribution.

Distribution is Normal, Variance of the population is known

Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 9

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 Confidence Interval for μ

• To create a 95% confidence interval for μ,

surround each sample mean with margin
of error m:

m ≈ 2×SE = 2×(σ/√n)

• The 95% confidence interval for μ is:

x m
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 “Body Weight” Example
• Body weights of 20-29-year-old males
have unknown μ and σ = 40
• Take an SRS of n = 712 from population
• Calculate: x-bar =183
 40
SE x    1.5 and m  2  SE x  2 1.5  3
n 712
95% CI for   x  m
 183  3
 180 to 186 pounds
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 Confidence Interval Formula

Here is a more accurate and flexible formula


x  z1  
n 2

Equivalent ly, x  z1   SE x

2

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 Common Levels of Confidence

Confidence level Alpha level Z value

1–α α z1–(α/2)
.90 .10 1.645
.95 .05 1.960
.99 .01 2.576

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 90% Confidence Interval for μ
Data: SRS, n = 712, σ = 40, x-bar = 183

90% CI for   x  z1 .1 
2
n
40
 183  1.645 
712
 183  2.5
 180.5 to 185.5

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 95% Confidence Interval for μ
Data: SRS, n = 712, σ = 40, x-bar = 183

95% CI for   x  z1 .05 
2
n
40
 183  1.960 
712
 183  2.9
 180.1 to 185.9

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 99% Confidence Interval for μ
Data: SRS, n = 712, σ = 40, x-bar = 183

99% CI for   x  z1 .01 
2
n
40
 183  2.576 
712
 183  3.9
 179.1 to 186.9

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 Confidence Level and CI Length
UCL ≡ Upper Confidence Limit; LCL ≡ Lower Limit;
Confidence Body weight CI length
level example = UCL – LCL
90% 180.5 to 185.5 185.5 – 180.5 = 5.0
95% 180.1 to 185.9 185.9 – 180.1 = 5.8
99% 179.1 to 186.9 186.9 – 179.1 = 7.8

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 Example
• A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal
population has a mean resistance of 2.20
ohms. We know from past testing that the
population standard deviation is 0.35
ohms.

• Determine a 95% confidence interval for

the true mean resistance of the population.

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 Example
(continued)

DCOVA

• A sample of 11 circuits from a large

normal population has a mean resistance
of 2.20 ohms. We know from past testing
that the population standard deviation is
0.35 ohms. σ
XZ α/2
n
• Solution:  2.20  1.96 (0.35/ 11)
 2.20  0.2068
1.9932  μ  2.4068

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 Interpretation
• We are 95% confident that the true mean
resistance is between 1.9932 and 2.4068
ohms
• Although the true mean may or may not be
in this interval, 95% of intervals formed in
this manner will contain the true mean

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
EXAMPLE 8-1 Metallic Material Transition
Ten measurements of impact energy (J) on specimens of A238 steel cut at
60°C are as follows: 64.1, 64.7, 64.5, 64.6, 64.5, 64.3, 64.6, 64.8, 64.2,
and 64.3. The impact energy is normally distributed with  = 1J. Find a
95% CI for , the mean impact energy.

The required quantities are zα/2 = z0.025 = 1.96, n = 10,  = l, and x  64.46 .

The resulting 95% CI is found from Equation 8-1 as follows:

 
x  z   x  z / 2
n n
1 1
64.46  1.96    64.46  1.96
10 10
63.84    65.08

Interpretation: Based on the sample data, a range of highly plausible

values for mean impact energy for A238 steel at 60°C is
63.84J ≤  ≤ 65.08J
Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 21
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-1.3 One-Sided Confidence Bounds

A 100(1 − α)% upper-confidence bound for  is

(8-3)
  x  z  / n
and a 100(1 − α)% lower-confidence bound for 
is
x  z  / n  l  
(8-4)

The underlying population is normally distributed, variance known

Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 22

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example 8-3 One-Sided Confidence Bound

The same data for impact testing from Example 8-1 are used
to construct a lower, one-sided 95% confidence interval for
the mean impact energy.
Recall that zα = 1.64, n = 10,  = l, and x  64.46 .

A 100(1 − α)% lower-confidence bound for  is

 Z 0.05
x  z 
n

  
10
  
Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 23
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 8-1.4 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval for 

When n is large, the quantity n sample size

S is the sample standard deviation
X 
S/ n
has an approximate standard normal distribution.
Consequently,
s s
x  z/2    x  z / 2
n n (8-5)

is a large sample confidence interval for , with confidence

level of approximately 100(1  ).

Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 24

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example 8-5 Mercury Contamination
A sample of fish was selected from 53 Florida lakes, and mercury
concentration in the muscle tissue was measured (ppm). The mercury
concentration values were
1.230 1.330 0.040 0.044 1.200 0.270
0.490 0.190 0.830 0.810 0.710 0.500
0.490 1.160 0.050 0.150 0.190 0.770
1.080 0.980 0.630 0.560 0.410 0.730
0.590 0.340 0.340 0.840 0.500 0.340
0.280 0.340 0.750 0.870 0.560 0.170
0.180 0.190 0.040 0.490 1.100 0.160
0.100 0.210 0.860 0.520 0.650 0.270
0.940 0.400 0.430 0.250 0.270

Find an approximate 95% CI on .

n>30 => large sample and we can use this approximation to ND

Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 25

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example 8-5 Mercury Contamination (continued)
The summary statistics for the data are as follows:

Variable N Mean Median StDev Minimum Maximum Q1 Q3

Concentration 53 0.5250 0.4900 0.3486 0.0400 1.3300 0.2300 0.7900

Because n > 40, the assumption of normality is not necessary to use in Equation
8-5. The required values are n  53, x  0.5250, s  0.3486 , and z0.025 = 1.96.

The approximate 95 CI on  is

s s
x  z0.025 μ  x  z0.025
n n
0.3486 0.3486
0.5250  1.96  μ  0.5250  1.96
53 53
0.4311  μ  0.6189
Interpretation: This interval is fairly wide because there is variability in the
mercury concentration measurements. A larger sample size would have produced
a shorter interval.
Sec 8-1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Known 26
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8-2.2 The Confidence Interval on Mean, Variance Unknown

If x and s are the mean and standard deviation of a random sample

from a normal distribution with unknown variance 2, a 100(1  )
confidence interval on  is given by

x  t/2, n 1s/ n    x  t/2, n 1s/ n (8-7)

where t2,n1 the upper 1002 percentage point of the t distribution with
n  1 degrees of freedom.

One-sided confidence bounds on the mean are found by replacing

t/2,n-1 in Equation 8-7 with t ,n-1.

Sec 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Unknown 27

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-2.1 The t distribution

Let X1, X2, , Xn be a random sample from a

normal distribution with unknown mean  and
unknown variance 2. The random variable

X 
T  (8-6)
S/ n

has a t distribution with n  1 degrees of

freedom.
Sec 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Unknown 28
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example 8-6 Alloy Adhesion

Construct a 95% CI on  to the following data. n<30 therefore

19.8 10.1 14.9 7.5 15.4 15.4 we are
15.4 18.5 7.9 12.7 11.9 11.4 working with a
11.4 14.1 17.6 16.7 15.8 small sample
19.5 8.8 13.6 11.9 11.4
size
The sample mean is x  13.71 and sample standard deviation is s = 3.55.
Since n = 22, we have n  1 =21 degrees of freedom for t, so t0.025,21 = 2.080.

The resulting CI is
x  t /2, n 1s / n    x  t /2, n 1s/ n
13.71  2.080(3.55) / 22    13.71  2.0803.55 / 22
13.71  1.57    13.71  1.57
12.14    15.28
Interpretation: The CI is fairly wide because there is a lot of variability in the
measurements. A larger sample size would have led to a shorter interval.

Sec 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal, σ2 Unknown 29

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
 Distribution
2

Let X1, X2, , Xn be a random sample from a normal

distribution with mean  and variance 2, and let S2
be the sample variance. Then the random variable

X 2

n  1 S 2
2
(8-8)

has a chi-square (2) distribution with n  1 degrees

of freedom.

Sec 8-3 Confidence Interval on σ2 & σ of a Normal Distribution 30

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard Deviation

If s2 is the sample variance from a random sample of n

observations from a normal distribution with unknown variance
2, then a 100(1 – )% confidence interval on 2 is

(n  1) s 2  ( n  1) s 2 (8-9)

 
 n 1  n 1

where

 and
n 1  n 1
are the upper and lower
100/2 percentage points of the chi-square distribution with
n – 1 degrees of freedom, respectively.

A confidence interval for  has lower and upper limits that

are the square roots of the corresponding limits in
Equation 8–9.
Sec 8-3 Confidence Interval on σ2 & σ of a Normal Distribution 31
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
One-Sided Confidence Bounds

The 100(1 – )% lower and upper confidence

bounds on 2 are

(n  1) s 2   ( n  1) s 2


  and    (8-10)
n 1 n 1

Sec 8-3 Confidence Interval on σ2 & σ of a Normal Distribution 32

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example 8-7 Detergent Filling
An automatic filling machine is used to fill bottles with liquid detergent. A random
sample of 20 bottles results in a sample variance of fill volume of s2 = 0.01532.
Assume that the fill volume is approximately normal. Compute a 95% upper
confidence bound.

A 95% upper confidence bound is found from Equation 8-10 as follows:

 
 n  1 s 2
 
2

 2

 20  1 0.0153
10.117
 2  0.0287

A confidence interval on the standard deviation  can be obtained by taking the

square root on both sides, resulting in
  0.17
Sec 8-3 Confidence Interval on σ2 & σ of a Normal Distribution 33
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