IE 4102 Statistical Engineering

Lecture 6: Statistical Intervals

for a Single Sample - II

Assist. Prof. Duygun Fatih Demirel

Spring 2024

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 Distribution
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Let X1, X2, , Xn be a random sample from a normal

distribution with mean  and variance 2, and let S2
be the sample variance. Then the random variable

X2 =
(n − 1) S 2
(8-8)
2

has a chi-square (2) distribution with n − 1 degrees

of freedom.

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 Distribution
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Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard Deviation

If s2 is the sample variance from a random sample of n

observations from a normal distribution with unknown variance
2, then a 100(1 – )% confidence interval on 2 is
(n − 1)s 2  (n − 1) s 2

    (8-9)
n −1 − n −1
 
where  
n −1 and  − n −1 are the upper and lower

100/2 percentage points of the chi-square distribution with

n – 1 degrees of freedom, respectively.

A confidence interval for  has lower and upper limits that

are the square roots of the corresponding limits in
Equation 8–9.
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One-Sided Confidence Bounds

The 100(1 – )% lower and upper confidence

bounds on 2 are

(n −1)s2  (n − 1) s 2
  and 
  (8-10)
n−1

−n−1

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Example 8-7 Detergent Filling
An automatic filling machine is used to fill bottles with liquid detergent. A random
sample of 20 bottles results in a sample variance of fill volume of s2 = 0.01532.
Assume that the fill volume is approximately normal. Compute a 95% upper
confidence bound.

A 95% upper confidence bound is found from Equation 8-10 as follows:

 
( n − 1) s 2


2

 2

( 20 −1) 0.0153
10.117
2  0.0287

A confidence interval on the standard deviation  can be obtained by taking the

square root on both sides, resulting in
  0.17
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8-4 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval For a Population Proportion

Normal Approximation for Binomial Proportion

If n is large, the distribution of

X − np Pˆ − p
Z= =
np(1 − p) p (1 − p)
n
is approximately standard normal.

The quantity p(1− p) / n is called the standard error of the point estimator P̂.

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Approximate Confidence Interval on a Binomial Proportion

If p̂ is the proportion of observations in a random

sample of size n, an approximate 100(1 − )%
confidence interval on the proportion p of the
population is

pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z  p  pˆ + z (8-11)
n n

where z/2 is the upper /2 percentage point of the

standard normal distribution.

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Example 8-8 Crankshaft Bearings

In a random sample of 85 automobile engine crankshaft bearings, 10 have a

surface finish that is rougher than the specifications allow. Construct a 95%
two-sided confidence interval for p.

A point estimate of the proportion of bearings in the population that exceeds the
roughness specification is pˆ = x / n = 10/ 85 = 0.12.

A 95% two-sided confidence interval for p is computed from Equation 8-11 as

pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z0.025  p  pˆ + z0.025
n n
0.12 ( 0.88) 0.12 ( 0.88)
0.12 − 1.96  p  0.12 + 1.96
85 85
0.0509  p  0.2243
Interpretation: This is a wide CI. Although the sample size does not appear to
be small (n = 85), the value of is fairly small, which leads to a large standard
error for contributing to the wide CI.

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Choice of Sample Size
Sample size for a specified error on a binomial proportion :

If we set E = z p (1 − p) / n and solve for n, the appropriate sample size is

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 z 
n=  p(1 − p) (8-12)
 E 
The sample size from Equation 8-12 will always be a maximum for
p = 0.5 [that is, p(1 − p) ≤ 0.25 with equality for p = 0.5], and can be
used to obtain an upper bound on n.

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 z 
n=  (0.25) (8-13)
 E 

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Example 8-9 Crankshaft Bearings
Consider the situation in Example 8-8. How large a sample is required if we want
to be 95% confident that the error in using p̂ to estimate p is less than 0.05?

Using pˆ = 0.12 as an initial estimate of p, we find from Equation 8-12 that the
required sample size is
2 2
z   1.96 
n =  0.025  pˆ (1 − pˆ ) =   0.12(0.88)  163
 E   0.05 
If we wanted to be at least 95% confident that our estimate p̂of the true proportion
p was within 0.05 regardless of the value of p, we would use Equation 8-13 to find
the sample size
2 2
 z0.025   1.96 
n=  (0.25) =   (0.25)  385
 E   0.05 
Interpretation: If we have information concerning the value of p, either from a
preliminary sample or from past experience, we could use a smaller sample while
maintaining both the desired precision of estimation and the level of confidence.

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Approximate One-Sided Confidence Bounds on a Binomial Proportion

The approximate 100(1 − )% lower and upper confidence

bounds are

pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z p and p  pˆ + z (8-14)
n n
respectively.

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8-5 Guidelines for Constructing Confidence Intervals
Table 8-1 provides a simple road map for appropriate calculation of a
confidence interval.

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8-6 Tolerance and Prediction Intervals
8-6.1 Prediction Interval for Future Observation

A 100 (1 − )% prediction interval (PI) on a single future observation

from a normal distribution is given by

1 1
x − tn −1 s 1 +  X n + 1  x + tn −1 s 1 + (8-15)
n n

The prediction interval for Xn+1 will always be longer than the confidence
interval for .

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Example 8-11 Alloy Adhesion
The load at failure for n = 22 specimens was observed, and found that x = 13.71
and s = 3.55. The 95% confidence interval on  was 12.14    15.28. Plan to test a
23rd specimen.

A 95% prediction interval on the load at failure for this specimen is

1 1
x − tn−1s 1 +  X n+1  x + tn−1s 1 +
n n
13.71 − (2.080)3.55 1 +  X 23  13.71 + (2.080)3.55 1 +
1 1
22 22
6.16  X 23  21.26

Interpretation: The prediction interval is considerably longer than the CI. This is
because the CI is an estimate of a parameter, but the PI is an interval estimate of a
single future observation.

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8-6.2 Tolerance Interval for a Normal Distribution

A tolerance interval for capturing at least % of the

values in a normal distribution with confidence level
100(1 – )% is

x − ks, x + ks
where k is a tolerance interval factor found in
Appendix Table XII. Values are given for  = 90%,
95%, and 99% and for 90%, 95%, and 99%
confidence.

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8-6.2 Tolerance Interval for a Normal Distribution

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Example 8-12 Alloy Adhesion
The load at failure for n = 22 specimens was observed, and found that x = 13.71
and s = 3.55. Find a tolerance interval for the load at failure that includes 90% of
the values in the population with 95% confidence.

From Appendix Table XII, the tolerance factor k for n = 22,  = 0.90, and 95%
confidence is k = 2.264.

The desired tolerance interval is

( x − ks , x + ks )
[13.71− ( 2.264) 3.55 , 13.71+ ( 2.264) 3.55]
(5.67 , 21.74)
Interpretation: We can be 95% confident that at least 90% of the values of load at
failure for this particular alloy lie between 5.67 and 21.74.

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 Example 1:

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