5.

1 The Basic Issue: Population and Quality  Doubling time period that a given
of life population or other quantity takes to
increase by the present size.
Structure of the World’s Population
 In 2013, the world’s population
reached about 7.2 billion people. In  The world’s population is very
that year, the United Nations unevenly distributed by geographic
Population Division projected that region, by fertility and mortality levels,
population would rise to about 8.1 and age structure.
billion in 2025 and reach about 9.6  Geographic more than three-quarters
billion by the year 2050. of the world’s people live in
 Every year, more than 75 million developing countries; fewer than one
people are being added to the world’s person in four lives in an economically
population. Almost all of this net developed nation.
populations to 97% is in developing.
Fertility and mortality trends.
 Rapid population growth can have a
serious consequence for the well-  Rate of population increase - The rate
being of all humanity. of a population, calculated as the
 If development entails the natural increase after adjusting for
improvement in people’s levels of immigration and immigration.
living-their incomes, health, education,  Natural increase - the difference
and general well-being -and if it also between the birth rate and the death
encompasses, their capabilities, self- rate of a given population.
esteem, respect, dignity and freedom  Net international migration - the
to choose. excess of persons migration into a
country over those who emigrate from
5.2 Growth: Past, Present, and Future World
that country.
Population Growth throughout History
 Crude birth rate - the number of
 For most of human existence on children born alive each year per
earth. Humanity’s numbers have been 1,000 population (often shortened to
few. When people first started to birth rate)
cultivate food through agriculture  Death rate - the number of deaths
some 12,000 years ago, the estimated each year per 1,000 population.
world population was no more than 5  Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the number
million. of children that would be born to a
 Two thousand years ago, world woman if she were to live to the end
population had grown to nearly 250 of her childbearing in accordance with
million, less than fifth of the the prevailing age-specific fertility
population of China today. From year rates
1 on our calendar to the beginning of  Life expectancy at birth - the number
the industrial revolution around 1750, of years a newborn child would live if
it tripled to 728 million people, less subjected to the mortality risks
than three-quarters of the total prevailing for the population at the
number living in India today. time of the child’s birth.
 During the next 200 years (1750-  Under-5 mortality rate - deaths
1950), an additional 1.7 billion people among children between birth and 5
were to the planet’s numbers. But in years of age per 1,000 live births.
just four decades thereafter (1950-  Youth dependency ratio - the
1990), the earth’s human population proportion of young people under age
more than doubled again, bringing the 15 to the working population aged 16
total figure to around 5.3 billion. to 64 in a country.
  Hidden momentum of population 2. An increase in female non-agricultural
growth - the phenomenon whereby wage employment opportunities,
population continues to increase even which raises the price or cost of their
after a fall in birth rates because the traditional child-rearing activities.
large existing youthful population 3. A rise in family income levels through
expands the population’s base of the increased direct employment and
potential parents. earnings of a husband and wife or
 Population pyramid - a graphic through the redistribution of income
depiction of the age structure of the and assets from rich to poor.
population, with age cohorts plotted 4. A reduction in infant mortality through
on the vertical axis and either expanded public health programs and
population shares or numbers of better nutritional status for both
males and females in each cohort on mother and child, and better medical
the horizontal axis. care.
5. The development of old age and other
5.3 The Demographic Transition
social security systems outside the
 Demographic transition - the extended family network to lesson the
phasing-out process of population economic dependence of parents,
growth rates from a virtually stagnant especially women, on their offspring.
growth stage, characterized by high 6. Expanded schooling opportunities so
birth rates and deaths rates through a that parents can better substitute
rapid-growth stage with high birth child “quality” for large numbers of
rates and low death rates to a stable, children.
low-growth stage in which both birth
5.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some
and deaths rates are low.
Conflicting Perspective
5.4 The Causes of High Fertility in
Other issues:
Developing Countries: The Malthusian and
Household Models 1. Underdevelopment
2. World resource depletion and
 Malthusian population trap - the
environmental destruction
threshold population level anticipated
3. Population distribution
by Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) at
4. Subordination of women
which population increase was bound
to stop because life-sustaining
 Population-poverty cycle - a theory to
resources, which increase at an
explain how poverty and high
arithmetic rate, would be insufficient
population growth become
to support human population, which
reinforcing.
would increase in a geometric rate.
 Microeconomic theory of fertility – the Other empirical arguments: Seven Negative
theory that family formation has costs
Consequences of population growth
and benefits that determine the size
of families formed. 1. Economic growth
 Family planning programs - public 2. Poverty and inequality
programs designed to help parents 3. Education
plan and regulate their family size. 4. Health
5. Food
Implications for Development and Fertility
6. Environment
1. An increase in the education of women 7. International migration
and a consequent improvement in
their role and status.