Ultimate fate of the universe

The ultimate fate of the universe is a topic in physical cosmology, whose theoretical restrictions allow
possible scenarios for the evolution and ultimate fate of the universe to be described and evaluated. Based
on available observational evidence, deciding the fate and evolution of the universe has become a valid
cosmological question, being beyond the mostly untestable constraints of mythological or theological
beliefs. Several possible futures have been predicted by different scientific hypotheses, including that the
universe might have existed for a finite and infinite duration, or towards explaining the manner and
circumstances of its beginning.

Observations made by Edwin Hubble during the 1930s–1950s found that galaxies appeared to be moving
away from each other, leading to the currently accepted Big Bang theory. This suggests that the universe
began very dense about 13.787 billion years ago, and it has expanded and (on average) become less dense
ever since.[1] Confirmation of the Big Bang mostly depends on knowing the rate of expansion, average
density of matter, and the physical properties of the mass–energy in the universe.

There is a strong consensus among cosmologists that the shape of the universe is considered "flat"
(parallel lines stay parallel) and will continue to expand forever.[2][3]

Factors that need to be considered in determining the universe's origin and ultimate fate include the
average motions of galaxies, the shape and structure of the universe, and the amount of dark matter and
dark energy that the universe contains.

Emerging scientific basis

Theory
The theoretical scientific exploration of the ultimate fate of the universe became possible with Albert
Einstein's 1915 theory of general relativity. General relativity can be employed to describe the universe
on the largest possible scale. There are several possible solutions to the equations of general relativity,
and each solution implies a possible ultimate fate of the universe.

Alexander Friedmann proposed several solutions in 1922, as did Georges Lemaître in 1927.[4] In some of
these solutions, the universe has been expanding from an initial singularity which was, essentially, the
Big Bang.

Observation
In 1929, Edwin Hubble published his conclusion, based on his observations of Cepheid variable stars in
distant galaxies, that the universe was expanding. From then on, the beginning of the universe and its
possible end have been the subjects of serious scientific investigation.
Big Bang and Steady State theories
In 1927, Georges Lemaître set out a theory that has since come to be called the Big Bang theory of the
origin of the universe.[4] In 1948, Fred Hoyle set out his opposing Steady State theory in which the
universe continually expanded but remained statistically unchanged as new matter is constantly created.
These two theories were active contenders until the 1965 discovery, by Arno Allan Penzias and Robert
Woodrow Wilson, of the cosmic microwave background radiation, a fact that is a straightforward
prediction of the Big Bang theory, and one that the original Steady State theory could not account for. As
a result, the Big Bang theory quickly became the most widely held view of the origin of the universe.

Cosmological constant
Einstein and his contemporaries believed in a static universe. When Einstein found that his general
relativity equations could easily be solved in such a way as to allow the universe to be expanding at the
present and contracting in the far future, he added to those equations what he called a cosmological
constant ⁠— ⁠essentially a constant energy density, unaffected by any expansion or contraction ⁠— ⁠whose role
was to offset the effect of gravity on the universe as a whole in such a way that the universe would remain
static. However, after Hubble announced his conclusion that the universe was expanding, Einstein would
write that his cosmological constant was "the greatest blunder of my life."[5]

Density parameter
An important parameter in fate of the universe theory is the density parameter, omega ( ), defined as the
average matter density of the universe divided by a critical value of that density. This selects one of three
possible geometries depending on whether is equal to, less than, or greater than . These are called,
respectively, the flat, open and closed universes. These three adjectives refer to the overall geometry of
the universe, and not to the local curving of spacetime caused by smaller clumps of mass (for example,
galaxies and stars). If the primary content of the universe is inert matter, as in the dust models popular for
much of the 20th century, there is a particular fate corresponding to each geometry. Hence cosmologists
aimed to determine the fate of the universe by measuring , or equivalently the rate at which the
expansion was decelerating.

Repulsive force
Starting in 1998, observations of supernovas in distant galaxies have been interpreted as consistent[6]
with a universe whose expansion is accelerating. Subsequent cosmological theorizing has been designed
so as to allow for this possible acceleration, nearly always by invoking dark energy, which in its simplest
form is just a positive cosmological constant. In general, dark energy is a catch-all term for any
hypothesized field with negative pressure, usually with a density that changes as the universe expands.
Some cosmologists are studying whether dark energy which varies in time (due to a portion of it being
caused by a scalar field in the early universe) can solve the crisis in cosmology.[7] Upcoming galaxy
surveys from the Euclid, Nancy Grace Roman and James Webb space telescopes (and data from next-
generation ground-based telescopes) are expected to further develop our understanding of dark energy
(specifically whether it is best understood as a constant energy intrinsic to space, as a time varying
quantum field or as something else entirely).[8]
Role of the shape of the universe
The current scientific consensus of most cosmologists
is that the ultimate fate of the universe depends on its
overall shape, how much dark energy it contains and on
the equation of state which determines how the dark
energy density responds to the expansion of the
universe.[3] Recent observations conclude, from 7.5
billion years after the Big Bang, that the expansion rate
of the universe has probably been increasing,
commensurate with the Open Universe theory.[9]
However, measurements made by the Wilkinson
Microwave Anisotropy Probe suggest that the universe
is either flat or very close to flat.[2]
The ultimate fate of an expanding universe
depends on the matter density and the dark
Closed universe energy density .

If , the geometry of space is closed like the

surface of a sphere. The sum of the angles of a triangle exceeds 180 degrees and there are no parallel
lines; all lines eventually meet. The geometry of the universe is, at least on a very large scale, elliptic.

In a closed universe, gravity eventually stops the expansion of the universe, after which it starts to
contract until all matter in the universe collapses to a point, a final singularity termed the "Big Crunch",
the opposite of the Big Bang. If, however, the universe contains dark energy, then the resulting repulsive
force may be sufficient to cause the expansion of the universe to continue forever—even if .[10]
This is the case in the currently accepted Lambda-CDM model, where dark energy is found through
observations to account for roughly 68% of the total energy content of the universe. According to the
Lambda-CDM model, the universe would need to have an average matter density roughly seventeen
times greater than its measured value today in order for the effects of dark energy to be overcome and the
universe to eventually collapse. This is in spite of the fact that, according to the Lambda-CDM model,
any increase in matter density would result in .

Open universe
If , the geometry of space is open, i.e., negatively curved like the surface of a saddle. The angles of
a triangle sum to less than 180 degrees, and lines that do not meet are never equidistant; they have a point
of least distance and otherwise grow apart. The geometry of such a universe is hyperbolic.[11]

Even without dark energy, a negatively curved universe expands forever, with gravity negligibly slowing
the rate of expansion. With dark energy, the expansion not only continues but accelerates. The ultimate
fate of an open universe with dark energy is either universal heat death or a "Big Rip"[12][13][14][15] where
the acceleration caused by dark energy eventually becomes so strong that it completely overwhelms the
effects of the gravitational, electromagnetic and strong binding forces. Conversely, a negative
cosmological constant, which would correspond to a negative energy density and positive pressure,
would cause even an open universe to re-collapse to a big crunch.
Flat universe
If the average density of the universe exactly equals the critical density so that , then the geometry
of the universe is flat: as in Euclidean geometry, the sum of the angles of a triangle is 180 degrees and
parallel lines continuously maintain the same distance. Measurements from the Wilkinson Microwave
Anisotropy Probe have confirmed the universe is flat within a 0.4% margin of error.[2]

In the absence of dark energy, a flat universe expands forever but at a continually decelerating rate, with
expansion asymptotically approaching zero. With dark energy, the expansion rate of the universe initially
slows, due to the effects of gravity, but eventually increases, and the ultimate fate of the universe
becomes the same as that of an open universe.

Theories about the end of the universe

The fate of the universe may be determined by its density. The preponderance of evidence to date, based
on measurements of the rate of expansion and the mass density, favors a universe that will continue to
expand indefinitely, resulting in the "Big Freeze" scenario below.[16] However, observations are not
conclusive, and alternative models are still possible.

Big Freeze or Heat Death

The heat death of the universe, also known as the Big Freeze (or Big Chill), is a scenario under which
continued expansion results in a universe that asymptotically approaches absolute zero temperature.[17]
Under this scenario, the universe eventually reaches a state of maximum entropy in which everything is
evenly distributed and there are no energy gradients—which are needed to sustain information
processing, one form of which is life. This scenario has gained ground as the most likely fate.[18]

In this scenario, stars are expected to form normally for 1012 to 1014 (1–100 trillion) years, but eventually
the supply of gas needed for star formation will be exhausted. As existing stars run out of fuel and cease
to shine, the universe will slowly and inexorably grow darker. Eventually black holes will dominate the
universe, but they will disappear over time as they emit Hawking radiation.[19] Over infinite time, there
could be a spontaneous entropy decrease by the Poincaré recurrence theorem, thermal fluctuations,[20][21]
and the fluctuation theorem.[22][23]

The heat death scenario is compatible with any of the three spatial models, but it requires that the
universe reaches an eventual temperature minimum.[24] Without dark energy, it could occur only under a
flat or hyperbolic geometry. With a positive cosmological constant, it could also occur in a closed
universe.

Big Rip
The current Hubble constant defines a rate of acceleration of the universe not large enough to destroy
local structures like galaxies, which are held together by gravity, but large enough to increase the space
between them. A steady increase in the Hubble constant to infinity would result in all material objects in
the universe, starting with galaxies and eventually (in a finite time) all forms, no matter how small,
disintegrating into unbound elementary particles, radiation and beyond. As the energy density, scale
factor and expansion rate become infinite, the universe ends as what is effectively a singularity.
In the special case of phantom dark energy, which has supposed negative kinetic energy that would result
in a higher rate of acceleration than other cosmological constants predict, a more sudden big rip could
occur.

Big Crunch
The Big Crunch hypothesis is a symmetric view of the
ultimate fate of the universe. Just as the theorized Big Bang
started as a cosmological expansion, this theory assumes that
the average density of the universe will be enough to stop its
expansion and the universe will begin contracting. The result
is unknown; a simple estimation would have all the matter
and spacetime in the universe collapse into a dimensionless
singularity back into how the universe started with the Big
Bang, but at these scales unknown quantum effects need to
be considered (see Quantum gravity). Recent evidence
suggests that this scenario is unlikely but has not been ruled
The Big Crunch. The vertical axis can be
out, as measurements have been available only over a considered as expansion or contraction
relatively short period of time and could reverse in the with time.
future.[18]

This scenario allows the Big Bang to occur immediately after the Big Crunch of a preceding universe. If
this happens repeatedly, it creates a cyclic model, which is also known as an oscillatory universe. The
universe could then consist of an infinite sequence of finite universes, with each finite universe ending
with a Big Crunch that is also the Big Bang of the next universe. A problem with the cyclic universe is
that it does not reconcile with the second law of thermodynamics, as entropy would build up from
oscillation to oscillation and cause the eventual heat death of the universe. Current evidence also indicates
the universe is not closed. This has caused cosmologists to abandon the oscillating universe model. A
somewhat similar idea is embraced by the cyclic model, but this idea evades heat death because of an
expansion of the branes that dilutes entropy accumulated in the previous cycle.

Big Bounce
The Big Bounce is a theorized scientific model related to the beginning of the known universe. It derives
from the oscillatory universe or cyclic repetition interpretation of the Big Bang where the first
cosmological event was the result of the collapse of a previous universe.

According to one version of the Big Bang theory of cosmology, in the beginning the universe was
infinitely dense. Such a description seems to be at odds with other more widely accepted theories,
especially quantum mechanics and its uncertainty principle.[25] Therefore, quantum mechanics has given
rise to an alternative version of the Big Bang theory, specifically that the universe tunneled into existence
and had a finite density consistent with quantum mechanics, before evolving in a manner governed by
classical physics.[25] Also, if the universe is closed, this theory would predict that once this universe
collapses it will spawn another universe in an event similar to the Big Bang after a universal singularity is
reached or a repulsive quantum force causes re-expansion.
In simple terms, this theory states that the universe will continuously repeat the cycle of a Big Bang,
followed by a Big Crunch.

Cosmic uncertainty
Each possibility described so far is based on a simple form for the dark energy equation of state.
However, as the name is meant to imply, little is now known about the physics of dark energy. If the
theory of inflation is true, the universe went through an episode dominated by a different form of dark
energy in the first moments of the Big Bang, but inflation ended, indicating an equation of state more
complex than those assumed for present-day dark energy. It is possible that the dark energy equation of
state could change again, resulting in an event that would have consequences which are difficult to
predict or parameterize. As the nature of dark energy and dark matter remain enigmatic, even
hypothetical, the possibilities surrounding their coming role in the universe are unknown.

Other possible fates of the universe

There are also some possible events, such as the Big Slurp, which would seriously harm the universe,
although the universe as a whole would not be completely destroyed as a result.

Big Slurp
This theory posits that the universe currently exists in a false vacuum and that it could become a true
vacuum at any moment.

In order to best understand the false vacuum collapse theory, one must first understand the Higgs field
which permeates the universe. Much like an electromagnetic field, it varies in strength based upon its
potential. A true vacuum exists so long as the universe exists in its lowest energy state, in which case the
false vacuum theory is irrelevant. However, if the vacuum is not in its lowest energy state (a false
vacuum), it could tunnel into a lower-energy state.[26] This is called vacuum decay. This has the potential
to fundamentally alter the universe: in some scenarios, even the various physical constants could have
different values, severely affecting the foundations of matter, energy, and spacetime. It is also possible
that all structures will be destroyed instantaneously, without any forewarning.[27]

However, only a portion of the universe would be destroyed by the Big Slurp while most of the universe
would still be unaffected because galaxies located further than 4,200 megaparsecs (13 billion light-years)
away from each other are moving away from each other faster than the speed of light while the Big Slurp
itself cannot expand faster than the speed of light.[28] To place this in context, the size of the observable
universe is currently about 46 billion light years in all directions from earth.[29] The universe is thought to
be that size or larger.

Observational constraints on theories

Choosing among these rival scenarios is done by 'weighing' the universe, for example, measuring the
relative contributions of matter, radiation, dark matter, and dark energy to the critical density. More
concretely, competing scenarios are evaluated against data on galaxy clustering and distant supernovas,
and on the anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background.

See also
Alan Guth General relativity
Andrei Linde John D. Barrow
Anthropic principle Kardashev scale
Arrow of time Multiverse
Cosmological horizon Shape of the universe
Cyclic model Timeline of the far future
Freeman Dyson Zero-energy universe

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Callan, C. & Coleman, S. (1977). "Fate of the false vacuum. II. First quantum
corrections". Physical Review D. 16 (6): 1762–68. Bibcode:1977PhRvD..16.1762C (http
s://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1977PhRvD..16.1762C). doi:10.1103/physrevd.16.1762 (h
ttps://doi.org/10.1103%2Fphysrevd.16.1762).
27. Hawking, Stephen W. & Moss, I. G. (1982). "Supercooled phase transitions in the very early
universe". Physics Letters B. 110 (1): 35–38. Bibcode:1982PhLB..110...35H (https://ui.adsa
bs.harvard.edu/abs/1982PhLB..110...35H). doi:10.1016/0370-2693(82)90946-7 (https://doi.o
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28. Cain, Fraser; Today, Universe. "How are galaxies moving away faster than light?" (https://ph
ys.org/news/2015-10-galaxies-faster.html). phys.org. Retrieved 2023-06-15.
29. Crane, Leah (29 June 2024). de Lange, Catherine (ed.). "How big is the universe, really?".
New Scientist. p. 31.

Further reading
Adams, Fred; Gregory Laughlin (2000). The Five Ages of the Universe: Inside the Physics of
Eternity. Simon & Schuster Australia. ISBN 978-0-684-86576-8.
Chaisson, Eric (2001). Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature (https://archive.o
rg/details/cosmicevolutionr00chai). Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-00342-2.
Dyson, Freeman (2004). Infinite in All Directions (the 1985 Gifford Lectures). Harper
Perennial. ISBN 978-0-06-039081-5.
Harrison, Edward (2003). Masks of the Universe: Changing Ideas on the Nature of the
Cosmos. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-77351-5.
Mack, Katie (2020). The End of Everything: (Astrophysically Speaking). Scribner. ISBN 978-
1982103545.
Penrose, Roger (2004). The Road to Reality. Alfred A. Knopf. ISBN 978-0-679-45443-4.
Prigogine, Ilya (2003). Is Future Given?. World Scientific Publishing. ISBN 978-981-238-
508-6.
Smolin, Lee (2001). Three Roads to Quantum Gravity: A New Understanding of Space,
Time and the Universe. Phoenix. ISBN 978-0-7538-1261-7.
Morris, Richard (1982). The fate of the universe. New York: Playboy Press. ISBN 0-87223-
748-6. OCLC 7924027 (https://search.worldcat.org/oclc/7924027).
Islam, Jamal N. (1983). The Ultimate Fate of the Universe. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press. ISBN 0-521-24814-0. OCLC 8728162 (https://search.worldcat.org/oclc/872
8162).

External links
Baez, J., 2004, "The End of the Universe (http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/end.html)".
Caldwell, R. R.; Kamionski, M.; Weinberg, N. N. (2003). "Phantom Energy and Cosmic
Doomsday". Physical Review Letters. 91 (7): 071301. arXiv:astro-ph/0302506 (https://arxiv.o
rg/abs/astro-ph/0302506). Bibcode:2003PhRvL..91g1301C (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/a
bs/2003PhRvL..91g1301C). doi:10.1103/physrevlett.91.071301 (https://doi.org/10.1103%2F
physrevlett.91.071301). PMID 12935004 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12935004).
S2CID 119498512 (https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:119498512).
Hjalmarsdotter, Linnea, 2005, "Cosmological parameters. (https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/
20070630082123/http://courses.physics.kth.se/5A1381/reports/hjalmarsdotter.pdf)"
Musser, George (2010). "Could Time End?" (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?i
d=could-time-end). Scientific American. 303 (3): 84–91. Bibcode:2010SciAm.303c..84M (htt
ps://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010SciAm.303c..84M).
doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0910-84 (https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fscientificamerican0910-8
4) (inactive 1 November 2024). PMID 20812485 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2081248
5).
 Vaas, Ruediger; Steinhardt, Paul J.; Turok, Neil (2007). "Dark Energy and Life's Ultimate
Future". arXiv:physics/0703183 (https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0703183).
A Brief History of the End of Everything (https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/science/briefhistory.sh
tml), a BBC Radio 4 series.
Cosmology at Caltech (https://web.archive.org/web/20051223150316/http://www.pma.caltec
h.edu/Courses/ph136/yr2002/chap27/0227.1.pdf).
Jamal Nazrul Islam (1983): The Ultimate Fate of the Universe (https://books.google.com/bo
oks?id=uJj2M46T5r8C&source=gbs_similarbooks). Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, England. ISBN 978-0-521-11312-0. (Digital print version published in 2009).

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